Trump orders USAID to be put under the U.S. Department of State (DOS) amidst foreign aid freeze

FAH1223

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I asked AI on the likelihood of interim measures analyzing the lawsuit

Based on the complaint and recent precedent, the prospects for non-profits obtaining relief from the foreign aid freeze appear strong. The plaintiffs present compelling evidence of both constitutional and statutory violations, with particularly persuasive arguments regarding separation of powers and the Impoundment Control Act. The lawsuit benefits from clear standing, as organizations like AVAC and JDN (and others) can demonstrate concrete injuries through staff layoffs, program suspensions, and disrupted services. The humanitarian consequences and national security implications also strengthen the case for emergency relief.

Previous related cases offer encouraging signs. Courts have already shown skepticism toward similar Trump administration actions, as evidenced by the quick injunctions issued in both the National Council of Nonprofits case and the Rhode Island case challenging the OMB memorandum. The arbitrary nature of the stop-work orders, combined with the lack of proper procedures and contradictory implementation, provides strong grounds for relief under the Administrative Procedure Act. The fact that Congress explicitly appropriated these funds and the administration failed to follow the required procedures for withholding them makes this a particularly clear case of executive overreach.

The speed at which courts have acted in similar cases suggests non-profits may see relief relatively quickly, potentially within days or weeks rather than months. However, organizations should prepare for both scenarios - quick relief through a temporary restraining order or preliminary injunction, and a longer battle for permanent resolution. The strength of the legal arguments, combined with the clear humanitarian stakes and national security implications, makes it likely that courts will act to restore funding, at least temporarily while the full case proceeds. Organizations should maintain detailed records of all stop-work orders, costs incurred, and program impacts to support both immediate relief requests and longer-term litigation efforts.

Perhaps most importantly, the courts have historically been very protective of Congress's power of the purse and skeptical of executive attempts to unilaterally withhold appropriated funds. Even if some claims face challenges, the plaintiffs only need to succeed on one theory to obtain relief. The combination of strong legal arguments, clear injuries, and precedent suggesting courts will act quickly to prevent humanitarian harm makes the prospects for obtaining relief quite favorable for affected non-profits. However, organizations should prepare for potential resistance or delayed compliance from the administration, even after court orders are issued.


And about the Supreme Court


This case appears destined for the Supreme Court given its fundamental constitutional questions about separation of powers and executive authority over appropriated funds. The case presents exactly the kind of high-stakes constitutional dispute the Court typically reviews - it involves core questions about the balance of power between Congress and the Executive, has significant national security implications, and affects billions in federal spending. The likelihood of circuit splits as similar cases proceed through different courts would also strongly favor Supreme Court review.

Despite the Court's 6-3 conservative majority, there are compelling reasons to believe it would likely rule against Trump, possibly by a 7-2 or even 8-1 margin. Chief Justice Roberts has consistently shown concern for institutional stability and congressional authority, particularly regarding the power of the purse. Justices Barrett and Gorsuch, though conservative, have demonstrated strong commitments to textualist interpretation and skepticism of expansive executive power. The clear statutory language of the Impoundment Control Act and appropriations laws gives these textualist justices a straightforward path to rule against executive overreach without appearing political.

The conservative majority has shown willingness to check executive power even when sympathetic to policy goals, as demonstrated in cases like NFIB v. OSHA. This case presents an even clearer example of executive overreach, with the administration openly defying explicit statutory schemes and congressional appropriations. The humanitarian consequences and disruption to U.S. foreign policy interests would likely further persuade moderate conservatives like Roberts and Barrett. Only Justices Thomas and Alito might reliably support expansive executive authority here.

Several recent Supreme Court decisions suggest this conservative Court would actually be quite receptive to the plaintiffs' arguments. The Court's conservatives have emphasized both textualist statutory interpretation and originalist constitutional understanding - both of which strongly support Congress's power of the purse over executive spending discretion. The Founders explicitly placed the spending power with Congress, and the relevant statutes clearly limit executive impoundment authority. Even if individual justices might agree with the policy of reviewing foreign aid, they're likely to object to the executive branch unilaterally defying clear congressional directives. The fact that the administration bypassed explicit statutory procedures for requesting funding changes would particularly trouble the Court's institutionalist conservatives.

The key swing vote would likely be Justice Kavanaugh, but given his previous writings on separation of powers and the clear statutory violations here, he would probably join a majority ruling against Trump. The administration's best argument would be executive authority over foreign affairs, but even that seems unlikely to persuade a Court majority given the direct conflict with Congress's constitutional spending power and clear statutory directives. In short, while the Court's conservative majority often favors executive power, this case presents such a clear violation of congressional authority and statutory requirements that even this conservative Court would likely rule decisively against Trump's actions.
 

FAH1223

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Good summary from Devex
A federal judge ordered the Trump administration to reverse its foreign aid funding freeze on existing programs — the result of a stop-work order issued by U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Jan. 24 — in a key ruling for contractors and NGOs that had to halt their work pending a 90-day review.

“The Court finds Plaintiffs have satisfied their burden for a narrower injunction concerning the implementation of the blanket suspension of foreign aid funding,” Judge Amir Ali of the Federal District Court in Washington wrote in the order, issued late Thursday night.

The temporary restraining order issued in a pair of lawsuits brought by implementers of USAID and State Department projects and programs will require the government to immediately stop any suspensions or pauses that are preventing the obligation or disbursement of foreign assistance funds for contracts, grants, cooperative agreements, loans, or other awards that existed prior to Jan. 19.

“Defendants have not offered any explanation for why a blanket suspension of all congressionally appropriated foreign aid, which set off a shockwave and upended reliance interests for thousands of agreements with businesses, nonprofits, and organizations around the country, was a rational precursor to reviewing programs,” the judge wrote.

The order also said the administration could not issue, implement, or enforce terminations or stop-work orders for any foreign assistance that existed prior to Jan. 19. What is still unclear is what will happen with the more than 800 contracts that were terminated in recent days.

“This ruling is a vital first step toward restoring U.S. foreign assistance programs,” said Elisha Dunn-Georgiou, president of the Global Health Council, in a statement. “It clears the path for organizations to resume their life saving work, showcasing the best of American values: compassion, leadership, and a commitment to global health, stability, and shared prosperity.”


Plaintiffs did not get everything they sought. They had also asked the court to put a stop to the 90-day foreign aid review and pause of new funding ordered by U.S. President Donald Trump, but the judge rejected the request.

The court did not find it “appropriate or necessary” to stop the president from implementing the executive order to conduct a 90-day review or limit the administration’s policy decisions.

Essentially the judge decided that while the president could order the review, the administration could not stop work and freeze funding for all existing programs that already had money obligated to them.

The judge made a point in the order to specify that this does not prevent the government from enforcing the terms of individual contracts with respect to modifications and terminations pursuant to the contracts’ provisions.

To get a temporary restraining order, the plaintiffs had to show they would likely succeed on the merits of the lawsuit and would likely suffer irreparable harm without the court’s swift action.

The court found that the financial and business harm to the plaintiffs — as well as the food and medicine that people around the world are being deprived of as a result of the stop-work orders — can be considered irreparable harm.

The implementers in this case argued that a blanket suspension of congressionally appropriated funds caused them immense financial harm by forcing them to cut staff and reduce operations — and threatening their existence.


While the government pointed to the process in place for obtaining a waiver from the stop-work order, the court found that harm had taken place and would likely continue even with the waiver process, which plaintiffs said had not meaningfully improved the situation because information about waivers was often unavailable. Even when waivers are approved, they said, no funds could be disbursed.

The urgency of the action was driven in part because several of the plaintiffs received terminations or stop-work orders in the days since filing the lawsuits earlier this week. The government filed a document with the court listing more than 200 programs that were terminated Tuesday and Wednesday, which it admitted was likely incomplete.

“Absent temporary injunctive relief, therefore, the scale of the enormous harm that has already occurred will almost certainly increase. Plaintiffs have made a strong preliminary showing of irreparable harm,” the order says.

The parties in the case will meet Friday to file a status report and propose a preliminary schedule for the next phase in the case. The government is also required to file a report by Feb. 18 telling the court about the status of its compliance with the order.

Most of my programs have funds... so if State complies, we can get back up to things relatively quickly..
 

Liu Kang

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Some sick shyt smh. But the good thing is they laid out their playbook publicly. Basically they are doing a full court press on government employees to demoralize them so much, they willingly retire.

 

FAH1223

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Rob Nichols of NicholsLiu understands what is happening to USAID better than anyone else I’ve heard speak out in public.

He was on a call hosted by Devex just now. Here’s my quick interpretation of a few of the main points (he was much more judicious and lawyerly):

  • The message from the administration to the international development community is this:

  • In other words: you’re not getting paid. Let me say that again. YOU ARE NOT GOING TO GET PAID. The Administration sees you and everything you do as criminal and illegal, and there is no reason that they should give you anything.
  • It doesn’t matter what the courts say. The Administration doesn’t give a shyt about the courts. They don’t think the Impoundment Act applies to them, and that neither Congress or the Courts have the power to tell them to spend money on things they don’t like.
  • There may be superficial actions and statements that look like compliance with the requirement to reverse the freezes and termination orders, but in practice there will be no meaningful change and in any case they have already destroyed the administrative and bureaucratic mechanisms for actually making payments and eliminated the people who would make those payments.


  • What is happening to USAID is only the first step in the Administration’s long-term plan to completely reshape how government works, and make it a tool for financing and supporting organizations and initiatives that are friendly to MAGA and their political allies. That started with USAID - since it was the most vulnerable agency - but is now spreading quickly to domestic programs. The ultimate goal is to seize control of all government payments. And the really big targets for that are the ones with the most cash - Medicaid and Social Security.
 
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