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C'mon, Doc; Jordan's not DPOY
Of all the annual awards, the defensive player of the year race appears to be the most difficult to peg.
Joakim Noah, the reigning recipient of the top defender award, has been hobbled all season and the Chicago Bulls have disappointed on that end. A pair of Warriors might split votes in defensive studs Draymond Green and Andrew Bogut. It's hard to reconcile Anthony Davis' block totals with New Orleans' bottom-five defensive ranking. Rudy Gobert might be the league's best rim protector, but has only recently started for his own team. Serge Ibaka is a perennial candidate. Tim Duncan is Tim Duncan.
It's an extremely tough ballot this season. But if you ask Los Angeles Clippers head coach Doc Rivers, the choice is an easy one: DeAndre Jordan.
"He's clearly the defensive player of the year," Rivers said on Sunday. "If anybody else gets that award, we need to have an investigation. ... What he's doing defensively, if he was doing that offensively, he would be recognized as the MVP or one of them, but because it's defense, no one notices."
Maybe "no one notices" because there's just not much that stands out. Rivers has been known to get out the pom-poms for his players. In fact, Rivers already had launched the Jordan DPOY campaign in June, saying, "100 percent, I think that's what he will be" when all is said and done in 2014-15. A few days ago, Rivers claimed that "D.J. is the best defensive player in the league. I just really believe that."
Unfortunately for Rivers, Jordan's DPOY case isn't much of a case at all. This screams confirmation bias on Rivers' part more than anything. All evidence suggests Jordan is a good defensive player; not a great one, and certainly not the best. Let's run through all the reasons.
Blocks don't equal rim protection
Jordan's résumé is anchored by his shot-blocking abilities, which is a lot like saying a baseball player should win MVP because he has a high batting average. There's just so much more to defense than the couple of possessions when a defensive player gets a piece of a shot attempt. It's true that Jordan ranks fourth with 2.2 blocks per game and is currently the only player in the NBA to collect a block against every opposing team, but what about the other 65 possessions when he's on the floor?
Jordan can jump out of the gym and run the floor like a gazelle, but he struggles with today's foundational task of walling off the paint in pick-and-roll attacks. Guards find little resistance when Jordan's in their path to the rim.
Looking beyond blocks, the holes in Jordan's case begin to reveal themselves. Per SportVU player-tracking data on NBA.com, opponents shoot 49.2 percent at the rim with Jordan nearby, which ranks 31st among 59 qualified big men (at least six basket attempts defended per game). The names at the top of the heap -- Gobert, Bogut and Ibaka -- have done a far better job at creating misses near the rim than Jordan.
Jordan can jump out of the gym and run the floor like a gazelle, but he struggles with today's foundational task of walling off the paint in pick-and-roll attacks. Guards find little resistance when Jordan's in their path to the rim. He uses his hands well to deflect passes -- opposing attackers turn the ball over on 24.2 percent of plays in the pick-and-roll, the highest for any big defender -- but his effective field goal percentage allowed on such plays ranks 22nd among 36 bigs, according to Synergy tracking. He defends with his hands more than with his feet, which is problematic against all the speedy guards in the league.
Jordan has done well to keep himself healthy and on the court. He hasn't missed a game this season and leads all big men in minutes played. Helping matters is that he's cut down his troublesome foul rate that plagued him earlier in his career. In his sophomore season he averaged 6.9 fouls per 100 possessions, but he's knocked that down to just 4.4 this season, which ranks ninth lowest among all big men (Al Horford is freakishly good at defending without fouling).
The Clippers aren't a good defensive outfit
Here's a fundamental question: If Jordan is an elite defender and plays so many minutes, why are the Clippers merely an average defensive team? Jordan's fan club will have trouble answering that one.
The Clippers rank just 15th in defensive efficiency this season, slipping from a seventh-place ranking last season. That the Clippers have fallen off defensively this season certainly doesn't bode well for Jordan's standing in the defensive player of the year race after he finished third in the voting in 2013-14.
Further hurting Jordan's cause is that the team's defense has sharpened when he goes to the bench. With Jordan on the floor, the Clippers give up 103.6 points per 100 possessions. When he hits the pine, it improves to 101.7 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com. That's not good news, especially considering that his backup is Spencer Hawes. While the Clippers' defense gets stingier when Jordan leaves the floor, just about every DPOY candidate has seen the opposite effect on their team's bottom line.
Rebounding isn't everything
Jordan does have the upper hand in the rebounding column. Since Blake Griffin went out with a staph infection in early February, Jordan has pulled down a ridiculous 18.6 boards per game with 13.2 of those coming on the defensive end. Those are Wilt Chamberlain-type numbers.
In fact, Jordan's 17.2 rebounding average was the highest we've seen in any month (minimum 10 games) since Ben Wallace in 2002-03, when he racked up 18.8 rebounds per game in the month of March. Interestingly enough, Wallace went on to win the defensive player of the year award in a landslide that season, garnering 100 of the 117 first-place votes.
Here's why Jordan probably won't follow Wallace's path: Most of Jordan's glass-cleaning impact is on the offensive end, which doesn't move the needle for his defensive credentials. When Jordan's on the floor, the Clippers recover 25.5 percent of their misses, but that free-falls to an abysmal 15.4 percent when he goes to the bench, according to NBA.com. That's impact.
However, Jordan's defensive rebounding tells a much weaker story. The Clippers' defensive rebounding rate barely moves from 76.4 percent to 74.6 percent when he goes to the bench, indicating that he could be stealing defensive boards from his teammates. Case in point: Griffin averages just seven rebounds per 36 minutes playing next to Jordan this season, but that soars to 10.6 when Griffin plays without him. Chris Paul also shows a similar split (4.8 boards with Jordan vs. 5.6 without Jordan).
Ultimately, Rivers' case for Jordan as defensive player of the year is based more on rhetoric than reason. His high block totals overrate his rim protection, the Clippers aren't a good defensive team and Jordan's monster rebounding output does little to help the team's overall ability to get stops. Jordan's defensive RPM ranks 19th among all centers, which solidifies his standing as a good defensive cog, but far from a serious defensive player of the year candidate.
News and notes
• That sound you hear is the other shoe dropping on the Hassan Whiteside story. Front offices around the league that passed on Whiteside are collectively nodding their heads after seeing his juvenile antics creep up the last couple weeks. On Monday, he was ejected for the second time in five games after he inexplicably decked Kelly Olynyk while the Boston center wasn't looking.
Whiteside
That comes right after Whiteside was benched by Erik Spoelstra for the entire fourth quarter on Saturday night in Washington as the Heat nearly rallied all the way back from a 35-point deficit. According to NBAsavant.com, that's six combined technicals and flagrants called on Whiteside in just 770 minutes of action, or one every 128 minutes. That's the most frequent rate in the league, just ahead of Larry Sanders (once every 146 minutes) and Markieff Morris (once every 154 minutes).
The Heat can't afford any more Whiteside temper tantrums; the latest BPI projection gives them just a 44.2 percent chance of making the playoffs. They need Whiteside on the court.
• It doesn't look good for Tyreke Evans after he needed to be helped off the court and into the locker room after turning his troublesome left ankle on Monday night.
He has taken his fair share of lumps as a ball hog, but he has been a much better facilitator of late, averaging 8.5 assists since Feb. 1. But even that understates his playmaking abilities because of how many 3-pointers he cues up. He has assisted 61 3-balls over the last two months, which leads all players in the category. Get this: Hot-shooting teammate Eric Gordon converts 54.5 percent of his 3s dished from Evans and just 29.7 percent when fed by someone else, per SportVU player-tracking data. Evans may not be able to shoot, but he's getting the rock to those who can.
Player Age PER
A. Davis 21 31.6
S. O'Neal 21 28.5
L. James 21 28.1
A. Davis 20 26.5
K. Durant 21 26.2
• Speaking of the Pellies, Anthony Davis is not making this MVP race any easier. He's averaging 33.5 points, 11.8 rebounds and 4.5 blocks in four games since returning from his shoulder injury. At the right is a list of the top PERs for someone age 21 or younger.
• This week's trivia question: Who is a perfect 14-for-14 on and-one opportunities? Last week's trivia question/answer: Which player leads the league in offensive charges committed? Tyreke Evans with 19.
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All Star
ESPN's Eamonn Brennan has dutifully served up the 2014-15 Wooden Watch every week -- and in past weeks has illustrated how the scale in the yearlong battle between Frank Kaminsky and Jahlil Okafor has tipped in favor the Wisconsin senior.
But because we can generally count on our ESPN Insider experts to disagree, we put the question "Kaminsky or Okafor for player of the year?" in front of our panel of seven, expecting an argument.
Our expectation was not met. Kaminsky was the unanimous choice.
Here is a sampling of the (ultimately not very different) opinions, with some numbers to help put those sentiments in context. Also, be sure to check out John Gasaway and Kevin Pelton's look at past Wooden winners, and how history has judged the choices:
"Okafor is the most dominant low-post big man in the nation, and Kaminsky is the most versatile and complete big man. Both are the best players on their teams and in their leagues, both are equally productive, both are the main drivers to their teams winning, and both make compelling cases for national player of the year. Because Kaminsky is the better defender and the better perimeter shooter, handler and passer, I would vote for Kaminsky." -- Jay Bilas
Frank Kaminsky vs. Jahlil Okafor, 2014-15
Player PPG RPG BPG FG% FT%
Kaminsky 18.4 8.1 1.6 55.9 75.2
Okafor 17.6 9.2 1.4 66.8 52.4
"When we think of dominant, we think of 20-plus points, 15-plus rebounds. Kaminsky has put up tremendous numbers, but his dominance comes in many forms -- passing on the perimeter, passing out of the post, inside/outside offense as well as total selflessness and the thought of 'team.'" -- Dan Dakich
"No matter how I slice it, Frank Kaminsky is my player of the year in college basketball. Analytically, he has the highest player efficiency rating in the country and leads the nation in win shares, his contribution to Wisconsin's wins. But seeing him in person drop 25 points and add a career-high seven assists at Minnesota clinched it for me. I'll trust that my eyes don't lie." -- Fran Fraschilla
Frank Kaminsky vs. Jahlil Okafor, 2014-15
Player Player Efficiency Rating (PER) Offensive Win Share Defensive Win Share Total Win Share
Kaminsky 35.6 5.2 2.6 7.9
Okafor 30.8 3.7 1.7 5.4
stats/ranks courtesy of sports-reference.com (through games of 3/10)
"Duke's star is the best post scorer in the nation, no doubt, but Frank puts points on the board from anywhere on the floor [including, ahem, the free throw line], and his defense and rebounding are superior to Okafor's." -- John Gasaway
"He's been the best overall college basketball player in the country. He can score in the post, can step out and make 3s, is a tremendous passer, rebounds, blocks shots. And his team has a shot at a No. 1 overall seed. I love Kaminsky's unselfishness and versatility -- and the biggest difference between he and Jahlil Okafor comes on the defensive end." -- Jeff Goodman
"The most complete, versatile player in the country. He impacts the game every time down the floor. Kaminsky puts such pressure on the defense and is an excellent defender. If you take his statistics and factor in pace of play and adjusted field goal percentage, his numbers are crazy."-- Seth Greenberg
Frank Kaminsky vs. Jahlil Okafor, 2014-15
Player 2-PT. FGs 3 PT. FGs EFFECTIVE FG% OFF. RATING* (RANK) TRUE SHOOTING % (RANK)
Kaminsky 171-285 (60.0) 32-78 (41.0) 60.3 (47) 126.7 (6) 63.5 (32)
Okafor 221-331 (66.8) -- 66.8 (7) 117.2 (28) 64.5 (22)
* at least 24% of possessions used
stats/ranks courtesy of KenPom (through games of 3/10)
"Kaminsky is the best traditional 'college' player, which is my tiebreaker in an otherwise even evaluation." -- Joe Lunardi
Why Ujiri is targeting Canadian talent
March, 10, 2015
MAR 10
2:05
PM ET
By Nick Borges | ESPN Insider
[img border="0" hspace="5" src="http://a.espncdn.com/combiner/i?img=/i/teamlogos/nba/500/tor.png?w=80&h=80" Canada has had an explosion of young talent in recent years and there are currently a dozen players from the country on NBA rosters. None of them play for the Toronto Raptors and that is something general manager Masai Ujiri wants to change, according to the Toronto Sun.
“We are an NBA team, it's important we look for talent everywhere, but it is on our minds to get a Canadian player or Canadian players,” Ujiri said Monday as the keynote speaker at the Canadian Interuniversity Sport's Canadian Basketball Speakers forum. “We are studying it. I even considered last year hiring somebody to concentrate just on Canadian players and I think I'm going to go through with it because the growth of the game here is so big. ... It's an obligation that I think we have to fulfill. We are a Canadian team and I think to have Canadian players, I think will be phenomenal.”
The Canadians on NBA rosters include: Joel Anthony (Detroit); Anthony Bennett (Minnesota);Tyler Ennis (Milwaukee); Cory Joseph (San Antonio); Steve Nash (LA Lakers); Andrew Nicholson (Orlando); Kelly Olynyk (Boston); Dwight Powell (Dallas); Robert Sacre (LA Lakers);Nik Stauskas (Sacramento); Tristan Thompson (Cleveland); and Andrew Wiggins (Minnesota).
The Raptors were high in Ennis and considered taking him with the No. 20 selection in the 2014 NBA draft, but he went No. 18 to Phoenix.
“There's no doubt during my time, even if my time is short, there will be a Canadian player on the Toronto Raptors, said Ujiri. "It's important that players get inspired to play for their country, inspired to play for the Raptors. This continues to get bigger.”
Rookie of the year? Watch Wiggins
Minnesota Timberwolves forward Andrew Wiggins and Chicago Bulls forward Nikola Mirotic have been the top two rookies for much of the season. Wiggins has been named the West's Rookie of the Month every month, while Mirotic has made a late-season surge thanks to increased minutes. But Mirotic's only chance at winning the NBA Rookie of the Year award is if he continues his torrid play and Wiggins falters mightily.
Well, nothing Wiggins is doing suggests he's about to hit any kind of wall. We are seeing a young player who is impacting games offensively in a variety of ways -- with skill, craft and athleticism -- that can get even better over time.
In fact, last week's performance against Portland could go down as Wiggins' signature game because of how he scored his 18 points in the win. Wiggins made eight field goals, scoring each basket in a different way:
Basket 1:
A simple elevation from the corner to the right wing to get an open look from 3. Wiggins is not shooting as well from the perimeter as he did to start the season, in part because teams are trying to run him off the line more.
Basket 2:
A jump shot off a tight curl following staggered screens. Coach Flip Saunders is known to love running these "Rip Hamilton" actions, as he coached Rip in Detroit. Wiggins is able to elevate and lean back slightly to create the space to shoot over Nicolas Batum, one of the most effective shot-contesters among wing players.
Basket 3:
Maybe his easiest field goal of the night, if you can call a weak-hand tip easy. No Blazer made much contact with him, so all he had to do was bounce up and get it.
Basket 4:
Coast-to-coast drive and score off the Eurostep over Batum. He was in the right spot on defense to get the steal and never pushed the ball too fast, which allowed him to have more options to finish against Batum. As he often does, Wiggins made this play look far easier than it really is.
Basket 5:
Early post-up on the smaller Damian Lillard, hitting a jumper as he turned over his right shoulder to avoid the coming double-team by Batum. Had Wiggins taken another dribble or tried to get to the basket via the middle or the baseline, Batum would have kept him from doing so. This is a very difficult shot, one that Wiggins is comfortable taking. He already loves to post up and is years ahead of most athletic wing players in this area.
Basket 6:
Wiggins made a quick flash cut into open space after seeing the entry pass into the pinch-post area. This is another play many, if not most, young wing players would not think to do, but his comfort level inside has him looking for these kinds of moves. The Blazers were caught in a transition mismatch, with Lillard on Kevin Garnett, and Wiggins burned them as they tried to recover. It's possible he recognized Portland was switching Lillard back to him, thus creating the open lane, but even if he didn't see this switchback, he did see the open space next to the rim and took it.
Basket 7:
Backdoor cut when Batum loses sight of him. This kind of play happens when a defender expects his guy to stay in the corner to keep driving lanes open, but it's exactly what the offensive player needs to do in these situations, especially if he can finish like Wiggins.
Basket 8:
His best overall play as he crowded the attack dribbler on defense, fought for the defensive rebound, then raced rim-to-rim for the extended one-hand finish. Watch how he effortlessly outruns everyone, and notice how hard Arron Afflalo tries to close ground while it appears Wiggins is jogging, yet never does. Wiggins is absolutely a sprinter on the basketball court.
Mirotic Madness
March has been Mirotic's best month of the season. Playing more than 30 minutes a game after playing just 14 minutes a game in February, he is delivering more points and playing far more aggressively on offense.
His unique ability to score after setting screens or out on the perimeter in space is showing up more, thanks to his increased level of assertiveness. He's looking to drive more, which is giving bigger defenders problems (though he is turning the ball over some when driving on wing defenders). These kinds of reference points are what an experienced pro like Mirotic will use to great benefit by next season: which opponents he should back down, which ones he can face up and drive on, etc.
He is still struggling as a shooter, overpenetrating too often, but that aggressive play is translating into a lot more fouls drawn. In February he took 1.3 free throws a game -- a typical average for a "stretch 4" getting 14 minutes a night. In March, though, that number has skyrocketed. In consecutive wins over the Wizards and Thunder, Mirotic attempted 27 total free throws (making 22). He has already made 48 free throws this month, compared to 45 in January and February combined.
Chicago is looking to help Derrick Rose on offense when he returns, taking away some of his burden, and it looks like Mirotic just may be the answer. His late surge won't be enough to push him to the top of the ROY race, but it can give Bulls fans reason to be optimistic.
Two rookies to keep an eye on: Payne and McGary
Adreian Payne, Timberwolves
Payne is more evidence that going back to college doesn't mean you will learn to play better. He is a talented man who played four years at Michigan State yet still looks very raw overall. He holds the ball too long on offense, can't drive by his man and score, and isn't sure when to shoot, dribble, pass, screen, etc.
However, he does show significant potential. Although he dribbles into trouble, the fact that he has some skill as a ball handler is good for him long term. He can also be a big help inside on the glass and as a rim protector because his second bounce off the floor is explosive, and his first one is great as well.
And though he's not making a good percentage of his perimeter shots, remember that he rode the bench in Atlanta until he was traded mid-February, so he's just now getting his legs underneath him in Minnesota. His shot looks better than the results show and he was considered a fine shooter while at Michigan State, so it's fair to be optimistic that he'll be a quality stretch-4 one day, maybe even by next season.
One thing college definitely helped him with is his ability to fight in the paint. Payne is skinny but not soft, and athletic bigs who can shoot and will play aggressively are what most teams look for in their starting power forwards. Payne has the look of a starter. With Kevin Garnett teaching his teammates minute by minute, that, too, can help propel Payne a great deal.
Mitch McGary, Thunder
McGary might not get much playing time the rest of the season, thanks to the acquisition of Enes Kanter and the return of Steven Adams. But he will always have February, which will serve as a reminder to himself, his team and the rest of the league that he can impact games when given minutes.
McGary is not as athletic as he once looked after suffering injuries during his sophomore season at Michigan (lower back) and earlier this season (foot). Perhaps he will recover fully by next season. Still, he plays extremely hard and hustles to do the little things, like setting ball screens away from where he is or going to the offensive glass. He also tries to run on every offensive possession he is supposed to (sometimes the rebounder needs to trail the play), giving him chances to get rim buckets because Russell Westbrook commands so much attention.
McGary has shown good hands, making him very useful in the pick-and-roll game, and his perimeter jumper looks good, too. By next season the Thunder will either put him in the rotation because they will have traded one of their other bigs, or move him for some valuable assets because he showed enough in his limited time to interest teams.
Professor Polo
80s Baby
MARCH 23, 2015 11:05:59 AM PDT
By Eric Karabell
Atlanta Braves closer Craig Kimbrel has delivered fantastic fantasy-relevant statistics for four consecutive years and still, annually in March, he ends up on my “Do Not Draft” list. One would think I’d learn my lesson as, over that four-year span, Kimbrel’s average season features 46 saves, a 1.51 ERA, 0.88 WHIP and 109 strikeouts. Um, what’s wrong with that? Nothing is wrong with that! In fact, those numbers, if the right-hander can continue providing them for another decade, would likely land Kimbrel in the Hall of Fame.
Kimbrel is, frankly, awesome. He’s been a staple of my oldest keeper team since I added him to my roster the final week of the 2010 season and he’s certainly a difference-maker. However, when we speak of the oft-misinterpreted “Do Not Draft” list, we have to remember this game, and all fantasy games, are about value and cost, so saying not to draft someone doesn’t really mean precisely that, but rather implies to be careful of excessively overpaying for sheer results, be it a draft or auction. Selecting Kimbrel in the fifth round, which is his current stock, is simply too generous for me. His closer pal Aroldis Chapman of the Cincinnati Reds is going 39th overall, so feel free to insert his name for Kimbrel’s for avoidance purposes. I’m building my teams around offense, offense, more offense, an ace or two, a mid-rounds bullpen, capable starters and then yes, more offense.
The top closer tier of Chapman, Kimbrel, Kansas City Royals right-hander Greg Holland and, when healthy and ready for full-time action, Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Kenley Jansen supplied fantasy owners with spectacular numbers across the board last season. There couldn’t be complaints, really. Well, I can think of one. Who might you have chosen with that fourth-, fifth- or sixth-round draft pick that instead was used on a relief pitcher, certainly more than a one-category fellow, but how much more? Perhaps the hitter you could have selected wouldn’t have finished higher on the Player Rater, but what did the hitter you settled for 10 rounds later provide? I’d argue the complaint would be that the initial investment of a closer in the first 10 rounds makes it a bit more difficult to construct a suitable team in an era of offensive instability.
That hardly means a fantasy team can’t win with Kimbrel or one of his strikeout-loving, save-garnering pals. Remember, this and most blog entries are about ESPN standard draft leagues. Surely Kimbrel is more valuable than a bad closer. Nobody would choose Addison Reed of the Arizona Diamondbacks or Joe Nathan of the Detroit Tigers over him. Then again, those guys aren’t costing fantasy owners much these days, and saves still are merely saves. If Kimbrel gets 46 saves and Reed and Nathan get 40-plus, like they did in 2013, that’s not a big difference. Last season Kimbrel, despite great numbers, was barely more valuable on the Rater, which is only one gauge, than Baltimore Orioles lefty Zach Britton and Milwaukee Brewers octogenarian (OK, not really) Francisco Rodriguez, hurlers who were undrafted in leagues because they weren’t closers.
Regardless, here’s another one of my “Do Not Draft” lists, and yes, Kimbrel is on it again, sharing the spotlight with Holland and Chapman. Hey, have at it in the comments section at the end. Of course I’d draft Chapman, Kimbrel and Holland, but definitely a few rounds later. My goal isn’t to win saves or have the best bullpen, but construct a balanced, productive team. Let’s use ESPN’s ADP as the basis for the debate as well.
Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (ESPN ADP No. 4): Sorry, I tried it in a few mock drafts and just didn’t like my team without a Paul Goldschmidt or Carlos Gomez anchoring the offense. I can’t choose a starting pitcher that early or spend the requisite dollars in an auction on the best pitcher in the land. Seattle Mariners ace Felix Hernandez is also going in the first round, over sluggers Jose Abreu and Jose Bautista, among others, which I think is ill-advised considering not only the outstanding depth among starting pitchers, but more so the significant dearth of top hitters. Kershaw and a great offense must be a beautiful thing, and this isn’t Kershaw’s fault, but it’s too risky based on alternatives.
Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants (ESPN ADP No. 24): Another Kimbrel-like staple of this annual blog, Posey is a wonderful player, for the Giants and fantasy owners. But catchers, even when baserunners aren’t deliberately running into them, are more dangerous to rely on than most hitters that handle less rigorous defensive positions, as they generally play less, don’t produce in more than two or three offensive categories and tend to see overall numbers drop off later in a season due to fatigue or injury. And yes, I’m aware we can find examples in which catchers do not wear down. Posey was the opposite in 2014, as he started slowly but blessed us with another monster second half to overcome Jonathan Lucroy of the Milwaukee Brewers as fantasy’s top catcher. Posey wasn’t the top catcher in 2013, though, or all that close to it. Ultimately I can’t select a catcher in Round 3, especially in ESPN standard leagues when only one is needed, and knowing the risk. A catcher is probably my last pick.
Nelson Cruz, OF, Seattle Mariners (ESPN ADP No. 58): It’s understandable that the Mariners, desperate for right-handed power, would sign the only player to reach 40 home runs last season to a free-agent deal. Cruz had a terrific season but he is 34 and had last topped 30 home runs in 2009. He had never knocked in 100 runs. I’ll concede he’s no longer a great injury risk, but I just can’t see not only this contract ending well, but starting well. Players with Safeco Field as their home stadium don’t hit 40 home runs. The last Mariner to reach 30 was Russell Branyan in 2009. This isn’t Camden Yards, and Cruz isn’t playing on a one-year contract any longer. I’ve got Cruz, who actually misses my top 100, hitting roughly .250 with 25 home runs. I won’t select that in Round 6. I can get Milwaukee’s Khris Davis to do it 12 rounds later.
Matt Harvey, SP, New York Mets (ESPN ADP No. 62): I can’t see choosing Harvey over Julio Teheran, Sonny Gray and hordes of others that didn’t just miss a season due to Tommy John surgery, and nothing I see from Harvey’s box scores in March can change that. I hope the ol’ Harvey returns to top-10 greatness, but the Mets are planning to be a lot more cautious than it appears fantasy owners are being with this ADP.
Evan Gattis, C, Houston Astros (ESPN ADP No. 99): The lure of an NL East catcher moving to the more hitter-friendly circuit and being free of catching is, I admit, enticing, but I’m afraid the facts don’t support this much love.Joe Mauer and Carlos Santana didn’t suddenly turn into Johnny Bench after avoiding the tools of ignorance (that’s a term for catchers). Frankly, I think the idea is a fallacy. Plus, Gattis has a wrist injury and an April DL stint would hardly be a surprise. Some think I just don’t like Gattis, and perhaps that’s true. He’s neither a good hitter nor a patient one. He was terrible in the second half last season. Pitchers can get him out, notably when they’re not teeing up fastballs. Sure, Gattis will launch his share of home runs in his new stadium but that’s it, and there’s no guarantee of 500 at-bats. I’ve ranked him 10 rounds later, and not only because I wait on catchers.
After the top 100, it’s tough to recommend not drafting anyone, because the value has drastically altered. We can debate Chicago Cubs prospect Kris Bryant for another week, but the bottom line is if you wish to select him a few rounds earlier, after the core of your team is set, and especially in a dynasty format, go for it. And I won’t debate someone like Atlanta Braves lefty Alex Wood going in Round 12 versus Round 16. In the second half of a draft, anything goes. In the first half, perhaps not everything good goes, but the risk is certainly heightened.
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All Star
Stock Watch: NCAA tourney
March Madness is back, and once again, the most exciting event in sports is delivering.
NBA scouts and GMs go out of their way to vocally minimize the influence a great tournament can have on a player's stock. Yes, I get it, professional talent evaluators never judge a player based off one or two games. But the tournament is some players' last chance to show off, and last impressions can be, well, lasting.
Because of that, every year, a small handful of players see their stock rise and fall based on their play in the tournament. Last year it was UConn's Shabazz Napier who played himself into the first round as LeBron James' favorite college player.
NBA scouts and GMs were all over the country last week watching the NCAA tournament. Some prospects shined. Others struggled mightily.
Here's the latest feedback from NBA GMs on a number of top prospects.
Players in our Top 20
Jahlil Okafor, C, Fr., Duke
Okafor has been No. 1 all year in our Top 100. While his grip on the title of consensus No. 1 pick has loosened considerably thanks to the play of Karl-Anthony Towns, Okafor's performance continues to give him the slight lead among NBA scouts and GMs for the No. 1 pick. Okafor remains the most offensively dominant big man to come into the draft in a while. He's averaging 23.5 PPG and has shot a crazy 21-for-28 from the field during the tournament. He's even picked things up on the rim protection end - he blocked two shots against Robert Morris and three against San Diego State. But his real value is offensively where he combines a huge body, great footwork and a soft touch around the basket. Some scouts prefer Karl-Anthony Towns because he's a more complete player. He's clearly better at that defensive end. But Okafor is so good offensively; he's going to be tough for NBA teams to pass on.
The Kentucky Kids
Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C, Fr., Kentucky
Willie Cauley-Stein, F/C, Jr., Kentucky
Trey Lyles, F, Fr., Kentucky
Devin Booker, SG, Fr., Kentucky
Andrew Harrison, G, So., Kentucky
Tyler Ulis, PG, Fr., Kentucky
Karl-Anthony Towns had one of the best games of his career in the opening round versus Hampton, scoring 21 points, grabbing 11 rebounds and blocking three shots in 25 minutes. But it was against Hampton, so take that with a slight grain of salt. Versus Cincinnati, he was still very solid scoring eight points, grabbing seven rebounds and blocking three more shots in 21 minutes. Physical teams can slow down Towns a bit which is a worry, but overall he had a very strong game against one of the physically toughest opponents he's going to encounter. As far as draft stock goes, nothing's changed. He's still very much in the mix for the No. 1 pick.
Cauley-Stein was quiet offensively, but had 11 rebounds and two blocks in 21 minutes against Hampton and nine points, two rebounds and two blocks versus Cincinnati. Again, the physicality of the Bearcats gave him some issues, but he still played elite defense the entire game and had yet another highlight reel posterization of a Bearcats player. His draft stock remains unchanged as well. He should go somewhere in the six to 10 range.
Trey Lyles has been one of Kentucky's strongest players over the past few weeks and that continued in the tournament. He had 10 points and six rebounds versus Hampton and 11 points, 11 rebounds and two blocks versus Cincinnati. He's essentially flip-flopped with Booker as the Wildcat most likely to be drafted after Cauley-Stein and Towns are off the board. He's now in the 13 to 18 range.
Devin Booker's shooting slump continues. He shot a combined 4-for-15 from the field , 0-for-7 from beyond the arc in Kentucky's first two games in the tournament. He's been struggling lately and it has raised some questions in NBA scouts' minds about his readiness for the NBA. Teams see him as an elite shooter, but given all the good looks he gets because of UK's loaded roster, his slump has been a bit disconcerting. His stock is sliding just a little over the past month, out of the late lottery and more into the mid-first round.
Andrew Harrison continues his resurrection as a potential first-round draft prospect with a stellar performance against Hampton with 14 points, four rebounds, three assists one steal and zero turnovers. He also shot 2-for-3 from behind the arc. His play against Cincinnati was a bit more uneven, though he made several NBA type drives to the basket and finished his second straight tournament game without a turnover. If he keeps playing like this through the rest of the tournament, he's going to move back into the mix as a possible first-round pick. Tyler Ulis has been hot, as well. He had 11 points, four rebounds, three assists and three steals against Hampton and nine points, five assists, three rebounds and three steals against Cincinnati. Not only has he become the Wildcats top floor general and best perimeter defender (if you don't count Cauley-Stein), but he's been their most consistent 3-point shooter of late.
D'Angelo Russell, G, Fr., Ohio State
It was a tale of two very different games for Russell in the tournament. Against VCU in the opening round, Russell was at his best offensively, scoring 28 points, shooting 4-for-7 from 3 and doing just about whatever he wanted out there. His feel for the game is remarkable and when his shots are dropping, he looks like a James Harden-esque combo guard who can score from anywhere. Alas, against Arizona's pesky defense led by Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, he couldn't get anything going. He shot just 3-for-19 from the field and 1-for-7 from 3 and was often forced to take long, off-balance jumpers. While his shooting stroke left him, he did make up for it in other ways. He had six assists and just one turnover, seven rebounds and showed, when his shot isn't falling, he can help his team in a myriad of other ways. I don't think the tournament really helped or hurt Russell. All of the good and bad that scouts have seen all season were on display. Scouts love the stroke, basketball IQ and competitiveness and they know that his lack of elite athleticism can make him vulnerable to defenders like Hollis-Jefferson or (in his other bad game this year against UNC) players like J.P. Tokoto. He should be a lock as a top-five pick if he declares.
Justise Winslow, G/F, Fr., Duke
Stanley Johnson, G/F, Fr., Arizona
Kelly Oubre, G/F, Fr., Kansas
In the past five months we've had four different wings -- Winslow, Johnson, Oubre and Croatia's Mario Hezonja -- ranked as the top wing on our Big Board. All of them are bunched tightly together in the six to 12 range in our Top 100.
With March Madness the last chance to show scouts what they have to offer on the court, it looks like Winslow might finally be gaining the upper hand.
Winslow spent some of November and all of December ranked as the top wing in the draft. But injuries and some poor shooting hurt his stock in January. Lately, he's been out to prove scouts that their initial ranking of him was the correct one. He's been very convincing playing Michael Kidd-Gilchrist to Okafor's Anthony Davis. Winslow scored just six points in a win against Robert Morris, but he had 11 rebounds, seven assists and a block in that 24 minute span. Against San Diego State, he was awesome -- 13 points, 12 rebounds, five assists, three blocks and four steals. He doesn't have to score to impact the game in multiple ways. Scouts were raving about Winslow after the game and if you were to ask me who, out of the elite prospects in the draft, has helped themselves the most in the tournament, right now the answer would be Winslow. If the draft were held today, I think scouts would take him as the first wing.
Johnson cleaned up against Texas Southern on Thursday, scoring 22 points and shooting 4-for-5 from three. But against a more athletic Ohio State, he really struggled, shooting just 1-for-12 from the field and 0-for-4 from three. Johnson's shooting touch has generally been solid all season, it's his struggles finishing at the basket that have scouts worried. For someone so strong and athletic, he's shooting just 53 percent on shots at the rim. That's partly why, despite solid production all season, scouts aren't ready to commit to him as a Top 10 pick.
Oubre didn't dominate either game. He was better on Friday against New Mexico State, going 2-for-3 from beyond the arc. Against Wichita State on Sunday, he was just 3-for-9 from the field and 0-for-3 from 3. He had five rebounds, but never really got it going for Kansas. That's been Oubre in a nutshell all year. Incredible talent, spotty production. While we have him ranked one spot ahead of Johnson on our Big Board because of upside, the truth is scouts are pretty evenly split between the two. This might come down to who dominates in head-to-head workouts.
And on a side note -- Mario Hezonja had zero points in 11 minutes versus Valencia on Sunday in the ACB and zero points in eight minutes versus Crvena Zvedza on Thursday in Euroleague play, so it's not like he's lighting up Europe at the moment.
Kevon Looney, F, Fr., UCLA
Looney suffered a facial fracture in the Pac 12 tournament and it's clearly affecting his assertive. Still, that didn't stop Looney, who led all freshmen this season with 15 double-doubles, from picking up a 16th against UAB on Saturday. He had another 10 boards against SMU -- and a total of nine of those 21 rebounds this weekend were on the offensive glass. While he's a skilled offensive player that can shoot 3s and handle the ball, he's still figuring things out on that end and whoever takes him knows they'll be getting a player that might take another couple of years to develop. But the upside (7-foot-5 wingspan, athleticism, basketball IQ, rebounding ability) are so high, I'm still hearing consistently that he's in the six to 12 range in the draft.
Myles Turner, F/C, Fr., Texas
Turner's game against Butler was a mixed bag. He scored just two points on 1-for-5 shooting and was plagued by foul trouble most of the game. However, he did grab 10 rebounds in the space of 16 minutes. And I think that game, in a nutshell, is what scouts expect from Turner. His defense, both as a rebounder and a shot blocker, are well ahead of his offense right now. While he can clearly stretch the floor and is skilled offensively, he lacks the strength and the basketball know-how to really put a lot of points on the board. Turner scored in double digits just once in the last eight games of the season and just three times in his last 14 games. With that said, his ceiling is so high, he should be a lock to get drafted somewhere in the mid-to-late lottery.
Frank Kaminsky, C , Sr., Wisconsin
Sam Dekker, F, Jr., Wisconsin
Nigel Hayes, F, So., Wisconsin
The Badgers' big three are all playing great in the tournament, which, if their continues, will make them a very tough out.
Kaminsky has moved into the discussion for a lottery pick and his play in the tournament so far supports that lofty draft position. He had 27 points and 12 rebounds and shot 3-for-5 from three against Coastal Carolina on Friday and then 16 points and seven rebounds against Oregon. Shot blocker Jordan Bell gave him a few issues, but he still got it done. What role he'll play in the NBA is still a source of serious debate, but Kaminsky's run of good tournament performances continue.
Dekker has had a solid, if unspectacular season, but so far he's been great in the tournament. He had 20 points and shot 4-for-8 from 3 against Coastal Carolina and followed it with 17 points, five rebounds while shooting 3-for-8 from behind the arc. It's the combination of size, toughness, athleticism and 3-point shooting that really interests scouts. He's struggled a bit from beyond the arc as a junior. A good shooting tournament probably is the best outcome for Dekker who sits firmly on the first-round bubble.
Hayes is also making a strong charge into the first round. Like Dekker, he's a versatile forward who can do a little bit of everything. He scored 15 points, grabbed eight rebounds and hit a three pointer versus Coastal Carolina. Against Oregon he had 14 points, nabbed five boards and dished out three assists (though he shot just 1-for-5 from three). If he declares for the draft, he has a very good chance of hearing his name called in the first round.
Bobby Portis, PF, So., Arkansas
Portis had a very rough shooting tournament. He went 10-for-27 from the field and struggled to assert himself offensively in either game. However, he was absolutely terrific on the boards grabbing 13 rebounds against Wofford and 14 against North Carolina. He also had three assists and five steals against the Tar Heels, showing off his bona fide defensive skills. Portis is a bubble lottery pick right now and nothing he did or didn't do here should chance that. Look for him to go in the 13 to 18 range.
Malik Pope, F, Fr., San Diego State
Pope was solid, but not spectacular in the tournament. His line against St. John's was six points, seven rebounds, one assist and one block in 24 minutes. He was suffering from the stomach flu against Duke and played just 17 minutes - scoring six points (on 2-of-3 3-point shooting) and grabbing two rebounds. He's clearly a work in progress, but all the evidence that he has lottery talent was on display -- elite length and size for his position, incredible athleticism and a deep range on his jump shot. He needs to get stronger and improve on his low post game (he spends way too much time on the perimeter), but if he declares he's going to get a lot of looks at the end of the lottery to mid first round. If he decides to wait another season and he gets a starting role as a sophomore, he has the talent to be a top-five pick in 2016.
R.J. Hunter, SG, Jr., Georgia State
Hunter was the new march Madness darling on Thursday after his go ahead 3-point shot from the parking lot with two seconds left helped Georgia State pull off the first big upset of the day. The image of him draining the 3 and his father, Georgia State head coach Ron Hunter, falling off his chair was iconic.
Hunter struggled all day against Baylor -- until the last three minutes of the game when he scored 12 straight points against the Bears for the improbable comeback. He ended the game with 16 points, three rebounds and three steals. Those two 3s he hit at the end of the game were the only ones he hit. He scored 20 points against Xavier on Saturday, going 6-for-15 from the field and 3-for-8 from behind the arc.
However, the five assists showed off a talented ball handler who can see the floor. Overall, this tournament probably helped his stock. His shooting percentages have been awful all year, but at least scouts got to see why in the tournament. Hunter can shoot the basketball, but the degree of difficulty behind many of the shots he takes are extraordinary. He'll get much cleaner looks in the NBA. Sources say it's very likely he'll declare for the draft before the April 16 deadline. He should go in the Nos. 13 to 20 range.
Kris Dunn, PG, So., Providence
The downside of Dunn was on full display against Dayton on Friday. He had seven turnovers and shot just 4-for-13 from the field in a bad loss to Dayton. Dunn's stock has been rising the past month to the point that some scouts were looking at him in the late lottery. I doubt this performance will damage that momentum much. Everyone who has scouted him knows he can play out of control and can try to do too much. In many other Big East games, scouts were treated to his terrific scoring ability, elite court vision, elite athleticism and length for his position. One game won't kill his stock. He'll likely go somewhere in the 13 to 20 range if he declares.
Montrezl Harrell, PF, Jr., Louisville
Terry Rozier, PG, So., Louisville
Harrell wasn't dominant in either game. He (understandably) struggled finishing around the rim against 7-foot-6 Mamadou N'Diaye on Friday and Northern Iowa gave him problems at times too. The toughness and athleticism are always there, but the focus, unfortunately, isn't. He's still a likely mid-first round pick, but he hasn't helped himself much lately.
Rozier was awesome against Northern Iowa on Sunday, scoring 25 points, dishing out seven assists and committing just two turnovers. When Rozier plays like he did on Sunday, the talk about him being a late lottery to mid-first round pick don't see far fetched. He's tough, athletic and can get wherever he wants on the floor. His jump shot is still a question mark, he's shooting 2-for-7 from three, but given his strong play as a point guard lately, the Kyle Lowry comps don't seem too far off.
Jerian Grant, PG, Sr., Notre Dame
Grant didn't really have a breakout performance, but when the games were on the line versus Northeaster and Butler, Grant came through with big plays (a steal versus Northeastern and a key assist versus Butler). If there's a knock on Grant it's his inconsistent shooting and scouts saw that this weekend (he shot 1-for-6 from 3) but Grant played every minute for Notre Dame and is a clear leader on the floor. Like Dunn, he's in that 13 to 20 mix in the draft. He or Kaminsky should be the first senior off the board.
Jakob Poeltl, C , Fr. Utah Delon Wright, PG, Sr., Utah
Wright has been getting most of the accolades this year, but it was Poeltl who carried the Utes in the past two games. Poeltl had 30 points on 12-of-13 shooting, grabbed nine rebounds and blocked six shots against Steven F. Austin and Georgetown this weekend. Teams were willing to draft him in the mid-first round even without this type of production. But Poeltl has been playing great of late and may be able to play himself into the late lottery if he keeps this up against Duke's Jahlil Okafor on Friday.
Wright struggled shooting in both games, going 4-for-14 from the field and had six turnovers against SF Austin. Averaging more turnovers than assists in the tournament is not helping Wright's draft stock at the moment. He's a senior, scouts expect more. He's needs a big game against Duke or risks perhaps falling out of the first round.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, G/F, So., Arizona
Hollis-Jefferson scored 23 points on 7-for-9 shooting against Texas Southern and just 11 points on 3-for-12 shooting against Ohio State. However, the defensive job he did on D'Angelo Russell drew raves from scouts. "He's the best on the ball wing defender in the country," one GM said. "He can guard elite NBA 2s and 3s right now." Hollis-Jefferson's jump shot is clearly a problem, but his defense is so good, it might now matter. He's a shorter version of Willie-Cauley-Stein.
Tyus Jones, PG, Fr., Duke
Jones continues to make the argument that he's the best "pure" point guard in the draft. While he doesn't put up dominant offensive numbers or flashy passes, he's had 13 assists and just three turnovers so far in the tournament. Scouts continue to be pretty divided on his NBA potential. His basketball IQ and court vision clearly are there, but does he have the size and athleticism to be compete with the NBA's current crop of elite point guards? He remains in the 15 to 25 range in the draft.
Domantas Sabonis, PF, Fr., Gonzaga
Sabonis had big games against North Dakota State (7 points, 11 rebounds, in 23 minutes) and Iowa (18 points, 9 rebounds in 27 minutes) and has turned into one of the two or three most important players for the Zags. I've been writing for weeks that he's got a legit shot of getting drafted in the first round if he declares. His strong play in the tournament is going to keep fueling that fire.
Other prospects of note
Tyler Harvey, SG, Jr., Eastern Washington
Harvey proved he could hang with just about anyone again in an opening round loss to Georgetown. The Hoyas went all out to stop Harvey and he still managed 27 points on 9-for-20 shooting and hit six of the 12 3-pointers he took. He also turned the ball over just twice despite tons of pressure from Georgetown. It's sacrilegious to compare him to a young Stephen Curry given what Curry is doing right now in the NBA, but there are enough similarities that teams will give him a long look in the first round. Harvey graduates this spring, so he could make the leap to the NBA if he wants to. Given how hot his draft stock is right now, it probably would be a very good idea.
Justin Anderson, G/F, Jr., Virginia
Anderson was the best 3-point shooter in college basketball before injuring his hand. In the four games since he's been back, he's shot 1-for-9 from 3 and clearly isn't himself. It will be interesting to see how scouts react to his shooting slump if he declares. Many believed his high shooting percentages were really fluky and he's was bound to come back down to Earth. For those that think he's a lights-out shooter, he's a mid- to late-first round pick. For those that think he was fluky, he's a second rounder at best.
Justin Jackson, F, Fr., North Carolina
Jackson continues to come into his own after a slow start to his freshman season. He scored 14 points against Harvard and 16 against Arkansas in wins for North Carolina. His floater and mid-range game are very impressive. He probably needs another year of school to add strength and show a more consistent 3-point shot, but if he declares, he'll get a lot of interest in the 20s.
Michael Qualls, G/F, Jr., Arkansas
Qualls had two dominant performances in the tournament, scoring 20 points against Wofford on 8-for-9 shooting and 27 points and 10 rebounds against North Carolina. He's clearly a NBA athlete who can defend multiple positions. The question is whether he can shoot it well enough to play the wing in the NBA. He went 3-for-8 from 3 in the tournament -- essentially on par with what he's been shooting from 3 all season. He's a sleeper late first rounder, but more likely a second-round pick.
Joseph Young, G, Sr., Oregon
What else can you say about Young? Time and time again he's proven to be one of the most lethal scorers in the country. He dropped 30 points on Wisconsin, shooting 12-for-25 from the field with four assists and just one turnover. He added 27 points on 8-for-15 shooting against Oklahoma State. For the tournament he shot 5-for-12 from three. The question for Young is -- can he make the transition to the point? He has the quickness to get anywhere he wants on the floor and he's a good enough shooter -- but does he see the floor well enough to run the point? It will be very interesting to see what teams do with him. Right now he's a second-round pick, but the scouts I spoke with were all impressed.
Branden Dawson, SF, Michigan State
When the good Branden Dawson shows up, as he did this weekend, he looks like a legit NBA player with a great body, elite athleticism, the ability to defend multiple positions and a knack for attacking the rim. He scored 15 points, grabbed nine rebounds and four blocks against Virginia on Sunday along with 14 points, six rebounds and two blocks against Georgia. Will more heroics in the Sweet 16 be enough to salvage his draft stock? I don't think he's in the first round conversation anymore, but he could still get looks in the second.
Wesley Saunders, SG, Harvard
Saunders has been lighting up the Ivy League all year, but could he do it against a high major? He had 26 points, shot 2-for-3 from 3-point range, had four rebounds and five assists and almost lead the Crimson to a upset over the Tar Heels. He's going to get some serious looks in the second round.
Mamadou N'diaye, C, UC Irvine
N'Diaye has had one true believer in ESPN's Kevin Pelton all season. He might have gained a few more with a solid 12-point, five-rebound performance against Louisville. No, he didn't set the world on fire (he had just one block despite being 7-foot-6 with a 8-foot-1 wingspan), but he was active, ran the floor well and clearly gave Louisville problems in the paint. Given his raw basketball IQ and need to get in much better shape, his best chance for development is to probably stay another year with the Anteaters. But if he declared? I bet someone would take a flier on him in the second round.
Devin Williams, PF, So., West Virginia
Williams has drawn attention from scouts both in the Big 12 tournament and in the NCAA tournament with his physical play. He's built like a linebacker and has proven to be a terrific rebounder. He had 16 points and 10 rebounds against Maryland and 17 points and nine rebounds against Buffalo. Next up is a huge, athletic Kentucky frontline. If he can hold his own against Willie Cauley-Stein, Karl-Anthony Towns and Dakari Johnson, he's going to start to generate some major draft buzz.
Portis had a very rough shooting tournament. He went 10-for-27 from the field and struggled to assert himself offensively in either game. However, he was absolutely terrific on the boards grabbing 13 rebounds against Wofford and 14 against North Carolina. He also had three assists and five steals against the Tar Heels, showing off his bona fide defensive skills. Portis is a bubble lottery pick right now and nothing he did or didn't do here should chance that. Look for him to go in the 13 to 18 range.
Malik Pope, F, Fr., San Diego State
Pope was solid, but not spectacular in the tournament. His line against St. John's was six points, seven rebounds, one assist and one block in 24 minutes. He was suffering from the stomach flu against Duke and played just 17 minutes - scoring six points (on 2-of-3 3-point shooting) and grabbing two rebounds. He's clearly a work in progress, but all the evidence that he has lottery talent was on display -- elite length and size for his position, incredible athleticism and a deep range on his jump shot. He needs to get stronger and improve on his low post game (he spends way too much time on the perimeter), but if he declares he's going to get a lot of looks at the end of the lottery to mid first round. If he decides to wait another season and he gets a starting role as a sophomore, he has the talent to be a top-five pick in 2016.
R.J. Hunter, SG, Jr., Georgia State
Hunter was the new march Madness darling on Thursday after his go ahead 3-point shot from the parking lot with two seconds left helped Georgia State pull off the first big upset of the day. The image of him draining the 3 and his father, Georgia State head coach Ron Hunter, falling off his chair was iconic.
Hunter struggled all day against Baylor -- until the last three minutes of the game when he scored 12 straight points against the Bears for the improbable comeback. He ended the game with 16 points, three rebounds and three steals. Those two 3s he hit at the end of the game were the only ones he hit. He scored 20 points against Xavier on Saturday, going 6-for-15 from the field and 3-for-8 from behind the arc.
However, the five assists showed off a talented ball handler who can see the floor. Overall, this tournament probably helped his stock. His shooting percentages have been awful all year, but at least scouts got to see why in the tournament. Hunter can shoot the basketball, but the degree of difficulty behind many of the shots he takes are extraordinary. He'll get much cleaner looks in the NBA. Sources say it's very likely he'll declare for the draft before the April 16 deadline. He should go in the Nos. 13 to 20 range.
Kris Dunn, PG, So., Providence
The downside of Dunn was on full display against Dayton on Friday. He had seven turnovers and shot just 4-for-13 from the field in a bad loss to Dayton. Dunn's stock has been rising the past month to the point that some scouts were looking at him in the late lottery. I doubt this performance will damage that momentum much. Everyone who has scouted him knows he can play out of control and can try to do too much. In many other Big East games, scouts were treated to his terrific scoring ability, elite court vision, elite athleticism and length for his position. One game won't kill his stock. He'll likely go somewhere in the 13 to 20 range if he declares.
Montrezl Harrell, PF, Jr., Louisville
Terry Rozier, PG, So., Louisville
Harrell wasn't dominant in either game. He (understandably) struggled finishing around the rim against 7-foot-6 Mamadou N'Diaye on Friday and Northern Iowa gave him problems at times too. The toughness and athleticism are always there, but the focus, unfortunately, isn't. He's still a likely mid-first round pick, but he hasn't helped himself much lately.
Rozier was awesome against Northern Iowa on Sunday, scoring 25 points, dishing out seven assists and committing just two turnovers. When Rozier plays like he did on Sunday, the talk about him being a late lottery to mid-first round pick don't see far fetched. He's tough, athletic and can get wherever he wants on the floor. His jump shot is still a question mark, he's shooting 2-for-7 from three, but given his strong play as a point guard lately, the Kyle Lowry comps don't seem too far off.
Jerian Grant, PG, Sr., Notre Dame
Grant didn't really have a breakout performance, but when the games were on the line versus Northeaster and Butler, Grant came through with big plays (a steal versus Northeastern and a key assist versus Butler). If there's a knock on Grant it's his inconsistent shooting and scouts saw that this weekend (he shot 1-for-6 from 3) but Grant played every minute for Notre Dame and is a clear leader on the floor. Like Dunn, he's in that 13 to 20 mix in the draft. He or Kaminsky should be the first senior off the board.
Jakob Poeltl, C , Fr. Utah Delon Wright, PG, Sr., Utah
Wright has been getting most of the accolades this year, but it was Poeltl who carried the Utes in the past two games. Poeltl had 30 points on 12-of-13 shooting, grabbed nine rebounds and blocked six shots against Steven F. Austin and Georgetown this weekend. Teams were willing to draft him in the mid-first round even without this type of production. But Poeltl has been playing great of late and may be able to play himself into the late lottery if he keeps this up against Duke's Jahlil Okafor on Friday.
Wright struggled shooting in both games, going 4-for-14 from the field and had six turnovers against SF Austin. Averaging more turnovers than assists in the tournament is not helping Wright's draft stock at the moment. He's a senior, scouts expect more. He's needs a big game against Duke or risks perhaps falling out of the first round.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, G/F, So., Arizona
Hollis-Jefferson scored 23 points on 7-for-9 shooting against Texas Southern and just 11 points on 3-for-12 shooting against Ohio State. However, the defensive job he did on D'Angelo Russell drew raves from scouts. "He's the best on the ball wing defender in the country," one GM said. "He can guard elite NBA 2s and 3s right now." Hollis-Jefferson's jump shot is clearly a problem, but his defense is so good, it might now matter. He's a shorter version of Willie-Cauley-Stein.
Tyus Jones, PG, Fr., Duke
Jones continues to make the argument that he's the best "pure" point guard in the draft. While he doesn't put up dominant offensive numbers or flashy passes, he's had 13 assists and just three turnovers so far in the tournament. Scouts continue to be pretty divided on his NBA potential. His basketball IQ and court vision clearly are there, but does he have the size and athleticism to be compete with the NBA's current crop of elite point guards? He remains in the 15 to 25 range in the draft.
Domantas Sabonis, PF, Fr., Gonzaga
Sabonis had big games against North Dakota State (7 points, 11 rebounds, in 23 minutes) and Iowa (18 points, 9 rebounds in 27 minutes) and has turned into one of the two or three most important players for the Zags. I've been writing for weeks that he's got a legit shot of getting drafted in the first round if he declares. His strong play in the tournament is going to keep fueling that fire.
Other prospects of note
Tyler Harvey, SG, Jr., Eastern Washington
Harvey proved he could hang with just about anyone again in an opening round loss to Georgetown. The Hoyas went all out to stop Harvey and he still managed 27 points on 9-for-20 shooting and hit six of the 12 3-pointers he took. He also turned the ball over just twice despite tons of pressure from Georgetown. It's sacrilegious to compare him to a young Stephen Curry given what Curry is doing right now in the NBA, but there are enough similarities that teams will give him a long look in the first round. Harvey graduates this spring, so he could make the leap to the NBA if he wants to. Given how hot his draft stock is right now, it probably would be a very good idea.
Justin Anderson, G/F, Jr., Virginia
Anderson was the best 3-point shooter in college basketball before injuring his hand. In the four games since he's been back, he's shot 1-for-9 from 3 and clearly isn't himself. It will be interesting to see how scouts react to his shooting slump if he declares. Many believed his high shooting percentages were really fluky and he's was bound to come back down to Earth. For those that think he's a lights-out shooter, he's a mid- to late-first round pick. For those that think he was fluky, he's a second rounder at best.
Justin Jackson, F, Fr., North Carolina
Jackson continues to come into his own after a slow start to his freshman season. He scored 14 points against Harvard and 16 against Arkansas in wins for North Carolina. His floater and mid-range game are very impressive. He probably needs another year of school to add strength and show a more consistent 3-point shot, but if he declares, he'll get a lot of interest in the 20s.
Michael Qualls, G/F, Jr., Arkansas
Qualls had two dominant performances in the tournament, scoring 20 points against Wofford on 8-for-9 shooting and 27 points and 10 rebounds against North Carolina. He's clearly a NBA athlete who can defend multiple positions. The question is whether he can shoot it well enough to play the wing in the NBA. He went 3-for-8 from 3 in the tournament -- essentially on par with what he's been shooting from 3 all season. He's a sleeper late first rounder, but more likely a second-round pick.
Joseph Young, G, Sr., Oregon
What else can you say about Young? Time and time again he's proven to be one of the most lethal scorers in the country. He dropped 30 points on Wisconsin, shooting 12-for-25 from the field with four assists and just one turnover. He added 27 points on 8-for-15 shooting against Oklahoma State. For the tournament he shot 5-for-12 from three. The question for Young is -- can he make the transition to the point? He has the quickness to get anywhere he wants on the floor and he's a good enough shooter -- but does he see the floor well enough to run the point? It will be very interesting to see what teams do with him. Right now he's a second-round pick, but the scouts I spoke with were all impressed.
Branden Dawson, SF, Michigan State
When the good Branden Dawson shows up, as he did this weekend, he looks like a legit NBA player with a great body, elite athleticism, the ability to defend multiple positions and a knack for attacking the rim. He scored 15 points, grabbed nine rebounds and four blocks against Virginia on Sunday along with 14 points, six rebounds and two blocks against Georgia. Will more heroics in the Sweet 16 be enough to salvage his draft stock? I don't think he's in the first round conversation anymore, but he could still get looks in the second.
Wesley Saunders, SG, Harvard
Saunders has been lighting up the Ivy League all year, but could he do it against a high major? He had 26 points, shot 2-for-3 from 3-point range, had four rebounds and five assists and almost lead the Crimson to a upset over the Tar Heels. He's going to get some serious looks in the second round.
Mamadou N'diaye, C, UC Irvine
N'Diaye has had one true believer in ESPN's Kevin Pelton all season. He might have gained a few more with a solid 12-point, five-rebound performance against Louisville. No, he didn't set the world on fire (he had just one block despite being 7-foot-6 with a 8-foot-1 wingspan), but he was active, ran the floor well and clearly gave Louisville problems in the paint. Given his raw basketball IQ and need to get in much better shape, his best chance for development is to probably stay another year with the Anteaters. But if he declared? I bet someone would take a flier on him in the second round.
Devin Williams, PF, So., West Virginia
Williams has drawn attention from scouts both in the Big 12 tournament and in the NCAA tournament with his physical play. He's built like a linebacker and has proven to be a terrific rebounder. He had 16 points and 10 rebounds against Maryland and 17 points and nine rebounds against Buffalo. Next up is a huge, athletic Kentucky frontline. If he can hold his own against Willie Cauley-Stein, Karl-Anthony Towns and Dakari Johnson, he's going to start to generate some major draft buzz.