qaws23
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this thread saved me money
Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)
- Thread starter the cool
- Start date
The longer the saga involving star running back Adrian Peterson and the Minnesota Vikings goes on, the more likely it seems that the 30-year-old could be playing for a new team in 2015.
To be clear: Peterson could return to Minnesota. He has public support from multiple members of the organization, but his agent recently declared that he believed it to be in the player's best interest to run the football for another team next season.
Among the teams that have been speculated upon the most as trade fits for Peterson are theDallas Cowboys and Arizona Cardinals. Given that the Cowboys just saw DeMarco Murraydepart for Philadelphia because his price tag surpassed their budget, the idea of trading for Peterson and the three years and nearly $45 million remaining on his contract might be a stretch.
The story is a bit different for Cardinals -- a team that not only can but should make a play for Peterson as the missing link to their already strong roster. Here's why.
Revisiting 2014
The Cardinals dropped five of their final seven games during the 2014 season (including a 27-16 wild-card loss to Carolina), but that's not telling the full story. The team stormed out to a 9-1 record last year before a litany of injuries derailed its chances to advance deep in the playoffs. Quarterback Carson Palmer tore his ACL, followed by backup Drew Stanton suffering a knee injury that shelved him. The team was forced to start Ryan Lindley in the playoff game.
"They were on a roll until their quarterback got hurt, and they showed if you don't have any kind of quarterback, it's going to be hard in this league," one NFL personnel man said. "At least if you've got [an elite] running back, when your quarterback goes down, you've at least got a chance. You saw when Palmer went down, it was a huge deal."
That personnel man has a favorable view of running back Andre Ellington, but he too ended the season on injured reserve after absorbing a heavy workload during the season (247 touches in just 12 games). Ellington -- who is just shy of 200 pounds -- would be an even better player if he were playing alongside a workhorse back.
But the addition of Peterson would not just be a security blanket in the event of an injury to Palmer, who continues to rehab his torn ACL this offseason. The fact of the matter is that Peterson is an elite player and perhaps the best running back in the game.
Christian Petersen/Getty ImagesAndre Ellington would benefit from sharing a backfield with Adrian Peterson.
"You can kind of get the sense that they know this is their time," a personnel man remarked about the Cardinals. "They've got the defense, some receivers, they got [free-agent guard Mike Iupati]. They were 9-1 with Palmer [to start last year]. If they had AP and Carson comes back and to have him play at half the level he was playing at last year, they're going to be a tough team to beat."
Palmer turned 35 this past December, though he showed that he remains a good player when he is healthy. Last fall he signed a three-year extension through 2017, which happens to coincide with the duration of Peterson's contract. While Arizona has a nucleus of young talent that includes the likes of left tackle Jared Veldheer, cornerback Patrick Peterson and safeties Tyrann Mathieu and Tony Jefferson, the team's best window to compete is right now.
While there are teams around the NFL that have a running back need and the financial resources to afford Peterson (i.e. the Raiders), trading for him at this stage of their roster-building process makes little sense. Arizona is already a contender. Adding Peterson would only fortify that status.
The fit and division
Peterson is a fit for any system. He's physically superior to any running back in the NFL and a boon to any offense. But Arizona is a particularly good fit for a power back who can handle a heavy load. While the Cardinals struggled running the ball in 2014 (they had the lowest yards-per-carry mark in the NFL at 3.3), a personnel contact wisely noted that coach Bruce Arians "has got that Steeler background that likes to run the ball." (Arians had hoped for an improved running game entering the 2014 season). Iupati, it should be said, is among the pre-eminent run-blocking guards in the league. The line has been beefed up for a stud back to run behind it.
The first step for the Cardinals to return to the playoffs is to try to win their division, one that happens to be filled with vaunted pass-rushers and front sevens. "[That's a] hard-nosed, tough division, lot of impressive defensive fronts," another personnel man said. "And a guy that takes pressure off the quarterback -- it's hard to find a guy like that." The NFC West looks to be as physical of a division as there is in the NFL. A back like Peterson is a tailor-made fit to play in it.
The cost, cut two ways
What remains to be seen with a potential Peterson trade is the cost it would incur. ESPN Front Office Insider and soon-to-be Hall of Fame GM Bill Polian has suggested he would look for two first-round picks to acquire Peterson. That might be too rich for Arizona's blood, but if the price dropped to a single pick in a later round, perhaps the deal is more plausible. But that's a bridge Minnesota will have to cross if it aggressively fishes for a trade.
The other factor is that a team would need to be able to absorb Peterson's large contract. Amid the rapidly moving news cycle of free agency, news of Palmer restructuring his contract to create more than $7 million of space for Arizona seemed to fly under the radar. While there are other ways Arizona can spend this cap space (and some of it can go to draft picks), it's a maneuver that at least merits a note when examining a possible path to acquire Peterson.
The Cardinals were close to being a contender without a running back on Peterson's level in 2014. GM Steve Keim has shown himself to be an aggressive and successful team builder, and acquiring the six-time Pro Bowler would immediately vault them into the elite tier of the NFC for the 2015 season.
954UAlreadyknow
All Star
Stars more injury-prone than ever
Let's start with the conclusion and work backward. Injuries aren't up in the NBA this season, but there's a good reason it feels like they are.
From Paul George's horrific fibula/tibia fracture during last summer's USA Basketball training camp to reigning MVP Kevin Durant likely being ruled out for the season last week, the 2014-15 NBA campaign feels like it's been dominated by injuries. Yet the injury data I've tracked suggests the rate at which players have missed games due to injury is fairly typical. The disconnect can be explained in part by more injuries striking star players than usual.
Injury Rates, Season by Season
To measure the impact of injuries in the NBA, I've been tracking them for the last six seasons. Over that span, on average about 3.7 players combined among the two teams have missed each game due to injury. This year's rate, so far, is ... 3.7 players absent for each game.
{C}
Season Injury/G
2009-10 3.4
2010-11 3.8
2011-12 3.8
2012-13 3.4
2013-14 4.0
2014-15 3.7
Average 3.7
That number is actually down slightly from last season, when the average of four players out with injuries for each game was the high-water mark over the last six years. Because injuries tend to accumulate over the course of the season -- a natural tendency exaggerated by teams out of the playoff race acting conservatively with their injured players late in the year -- the rate might creep up slightly over the remainder of the schedule. However, it's unlikely 2014-15 will surpass 2010-11 or the lockout-shortened 2011-12 seasons, when an average of 3.8 players missed each game.
It's difficult to compare recent injuries to the historical trend in the NBA. My database doesn't extend past the last six seasons, and even if it did any data before 2005-06 would be tough to interpret. That's when the league moved to an inactive list rather than an injured list, which forced teams to come up with bogus or at least exaggerated injuries to keep extra players on their rosters.
More Injuries to Bigger Names
Digging deeper into the data reveals an interesting trend. While the rate of injuries doesn't seem to have changed much over the past six seasons, the amount of minutes and wins lost to injury has gone up. I estimate those totals based on minutes per game injured players average when healthy, and their average wins above replacement player (WARP) per game by my rating system.
Season MinLost/G WARP/G
2009-10 73.3 0.105
2010-11 75.5 0.083
2011-12 89.4 0.116
2012-13 78.3 0.145
2013-14 89.3 0.132
2014-15 84.2 0.148
Average 81.3 0.121
This season has featured the most WARP lost due to injuries per game of any season in my database, while minutes lost have been above 80 per game three of the last four years after being well below 80 the first two on record. Taken together, the data suggests that injuries have disproportionately affected better players the last few seasons as compared to the first two in my database.
That's consistent with the subjective quality of the names on the injury list. Besides Durant and George, Carmelo Anthony, Kobe Bryant, Chris Bosh and Dwight Howard are among the All-Stars who have been sidelined for extended periods. The MVP race has been significantly affected by health. In addition to ruining Durant's chances of repeating, injuries to Anthony Davis, LeBron James and Russell Westbrook have hurt their cases for MVP.
To put the injuries to stars into a historical context, I looked back at All-Star teams dating back to 1978, finding what percentage of games All-Stars have played the following season. The trend is fascinating.
Before 2010-11, All-Stars had collectively missed more than 20 percent of their games the following season just twice, 1997 All-Stars in 1997-98 and 2004 All-Stars in 2004-05. Remarkably, that's happened each of the last four years. Last season actually featured the worst health by incumbent All-Stars, who collectively missed nearly a quarter of their games due to extended injuries suffered by Bryant (limited to six games), Brook Lopez (17), Rajon Rondo (30) Jrue Holiday (34) and Westbrook (46).
It's too early to draw any conclusions from this trend, but it certainly has to trouble the league. As entertaining as the 2014-15 season has been, it could be even better with something closer to full participation from star players.
News and Notes
• So which team has suffered the most due to injuries? The Los Angeles Lakers have lost a league-high 276 games, with Bryant missing much of the season, Steve Nash all of it and rookie Julius Randle all but one game. However, since the Lakers' injured players struggled when they were on the court, they rank in the middle of the pack in terms of WARP lost. By that perspective, the Indiana Pacers (17.5 WARP) have had the most painful injuries, followed by the Oklahoma City Thunder (16.7). The Minnesota Timberwolves (10.0) are the only other team to lose double-figure WARP to injuries. The complete rankings through Wednesday's games:
Teams hurt most by injuries in 2014-15
team Games Rk Minutes Rk WARP Rk
L.A. Lakers 276 30 5727 28 4.5 18
Minnesota 264 29 6356 30 10.0 28
Philadelphia 239 28 4899 26 4.6 19
Milwaukee 233 27 4174 24 3.8 13
New York 210 26 5377 27 5.7 20
Indiana 201 25 5820 29 17.5 30
Oklahoma City 190 24 4241 25 16.7 29
Miami 172 23 3995 23 7.4 26
Houston 145 22 3780 22 7.0 25
Orlando 142 21 2996 18 2.6 8
Chicago 135 20 3595 21 6.1 22
San Antonio 134 19 3029 19 7.0 24
Denver 126 18 2356 14 2.2 5
Sacramento 121 17 2266 11 6.5 23
Boston 117 16 2338 13 4.3 16
Cleveland 115 15 2815 17 5.8 21
Charlotte 114 14 2711 16 4.5 17
Portland 103 13 2316 12 3.4 11
New Orleans 98 12 3154 20 9.9 27
Utah 97 11 2574 15 1.2 1
Washington 89 10 1773 7 1.6 2
Detroit 85 9 1848 9 4.0 15
Brooklyn 83 8 1964 10 2.3 6
Atlanta 80 7 1780 8 3.9 14
L.A. Clippers 77 6 1642 6 2.8 9
Golden State 72 5 1364 4 3.5 12
Dallas 66 4 1284 2 2.4 7
Memphis 60 3 1478 5 2.9 10
Toronto 53 2 1359 3 1.6 3
Phoenix 34 1 787 1 1.8 4
• For the second time in the last six years, the Suns have lost fewer games to injury than any other team in the league. With Oklahoma City suffering a rash of injuries, Phoenix now has the fewest games lost over the six-year period tracked by my database. That is testament to the Suns' innovative athletic training staff, a major competitive advantage for Phoenix.
At the same time, the Portland Trail Blazers (who face the Suns on Friday night in Phoenix) have found out that prevention alone cannot stop injuries. Last season, after bringing in Dr. Chris Stackpole to oversee the training staff, Portland lost the second-fewest games to injury. With the same staff in place, the Blazers have regressed to the middle of the pack this season. Wesley Matthews' ruptured Achilles was a tough blow to Portland's playoff chances, and the Blazers have also been without starting forwards LaMarcus Aldridge and Nicolas Batum and reserve Chris Kaman this week. (Aldridge returned in Wednesday's win at Utah, and Batum may play tonight.) Ultimately, random chance plays a huge role in how many injuries teams suffer each season. • My injury database also shows how much more common teams resting players has become. Already, the league has set a record with 81 players missing games due to "rest," more than the previous two seasons combined. In 2009-10 and 2010-11 combined, I marked just two games missed due to rest. Some of this is surely because Gregg Popovich and the San Antonio Spurs have made it acceptable to admit players are simply resting rather than using a euphemistic injury, but the Spurs have also changed the thinking about rest -- as Insider colleague Tom Haberstroh noted earlier this season.
• With a win Friday over Minnesota and a Memphis Grizzlies loss to Golden State, the Houston Rockets could climb even in the loss column with Memphis and a half-game back for the Southwest Division lead and second place in the Eastern Conference. My most recent simulations of the remainder of the season show the Rockets coming back to win the Southwest a little more than a third of the time, with a tiny outside chance of the San Antonio Spurs getting in the mix.
The Los Angeles Clippers also are in the mix despite being three games back of Memphis. Their easy schedule the remainder of the season gives the Clippers a real shot at grabbing the second seed, which they do in 12 percent of simulations. The Clippers can make up some ground if they take care of business tonight, when they visit Philadelphia fresh off a 31-point win over the Knicks at Madison Square Garden.
954UAlreadyknow
All Star
Florida State quarterback Jameis Winston is both the No. 1 player on my board and arguably the biggest-name prospect in the 2015 NFL draft.
If you base his evaluation purely off of the tape, I think he's the clear choice for the No. 1 overall pick by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and one of the best quarterback prospects to enter the league in the past 10 years. He's a notch below Andrew Luck in terms of the passing skills that translate to the pros -- reading coverages, winning from the pocket, throwing with anticipation and accuracy, etc. -- and grades out similarly to Matt Ryan and Ben Roethlisbergerwhen they were coming out. Luck belongs in his own tier, but even though Winston's style of play is different from that of Ryan and Roethlisberger, he belongs on that same level before taking into account his behavioral baggage.
I feel he has a clear advantage over No. 2 QB prospect Marcus Mariota when comparing their on-field performances. If he doesn't get selected No. 1, I think it will have much more to do with his off-field issues. Tampa Bay or any team that considers him has to be comfortable with his maturity level and what it knows of his past behavior before it commits to making him the face of its franchise.
Ahead of his pro day on Tuesday, I've broken out my write-ups of the QB-specific traits in Winston's scouting report to show what his greatest strengths and weaknesses are as a player. I've also included a bottom line section at the end. You can check out his full report in ourDraftTracker.
2015 NFL DRAFT
Rds. 2-3: May 1, 7 p.m. ET
Rds. 4-7: May 2, noon ET
Where: Auditorium Theatre of Roosevelt University, Chicago
NFL draft home page
• 2015 NFL draft order
• Mel Kiper Jr.: Mock 3.0
• Todd McShay: Mock 4.0
• Todd McShay's Top 32
• Mel Kiper Jr.'s Big Board
• Top 10 prospects by position
• NFL draft player rankings
Note: Each category is graded on a 1-5 scale, with 1 being exceptional, 2 above average, 3 average, 4 below average and 5 marginal.
Mental makeup grade: 2
"Comes from a progression-based offense. Sees entire field and is comfortable going through progressions from inside the pocket. Understands how to set protections and how to read coverages. Shows no fear staring down the gun-barrel. Excels in second-reaction situations. Consistently knows where extra rusher is coming from and slides his platform accordingly. Has tremendous confidence in his ability and is not afraid to take chances, showing great confidence in his receivers, but he needs to do a better job with risk-reward assessment. Is too often careless with the football, specifically on extended plays. Needs to learn when the play has expired. Has a track record of starting slow in games. Needs to learn to channel energy early in games. However, he repeatedly shows ability to perform under pressure, especially when trailing in the second half. Is resilient. Has unique ability to compartmentalize negative factors in his life and give complete focus between the lines."
Accuracy grade: 1
"Naturally accurate. Shows soft touch and complete command. Understands tempo and knows when to take heat off fastball. Best asset is his elite anticipatory accuracy (best we've studied since Andrew Luck and Kellen Moore in 2012). Consistently gets the ball out before his receiver breaks. Frequently throws his receiver open and/or leads his receiver to extra yards after the catch. Fits the ball into tight windows that most wouldn't even attempt. Shows ability to throw accurately from off-platform, including rolling to both sides. Only time he gets into trouble is when he gets lazy/sloppy with footwork. Occasionally fails to tie feet with upper body when quickly going through progressions, and then winds up throwing off-balance because his feet trailed the trigger. Should become more consistent with footwork now that complete focus is on football (this is first spring he won't be playing baseball)."
Release/arm strength: 2
"Had an elongated pitcher's delivery in 2013. Tightened it up a bit in 2014, and appeared at the combine to have tightened it up even more. With sole focus on football moving forward, his delivery quickness should improve. And because of his arm power, the speed from the time he loads the pass to when it reaches its target is still above average. Has very good ball velocity and will have no trouble making all the NFL throws. Gets good zip on deep out. Gets great trajectory on vertical rail shots. Shows ability to drive the ball down the field into wind."
Pocket mobility grade: 2
"Pocket movement is very good. Shows ability to sense pressure and move within pocket to avoid the pass rush while keeping eyes downfield. Knows when to sidestep/slide against interior pressure and when to climb the pocket against perimeter pressure. Strong enough to make plays with defenders hanging from his lower body. Has marginal timed speed and won't win a ton of foot races, but he is more elusive than combine results indicate, he plays slightly faster, and he is a strong and competitive runner when he takes off."
Bottom line
I don't expect anything that happens at Winston's pro day on Tuesday to do much to change his stock -- he is a very impressive prospect on tape, and he already showed well during his throwing session at the combine. If anything, his pro day performance will likely be better since he'll be throwing his own routine and to his own receivers. The most helpful part for teams is likely to be spending time in Winston's college town and getting opinions on him from people around the program.
To me, Winston has the look of a No. 1 overall pick based on what he's done on the field, and I consider him the most likely player to go with the first choice, unless the Bucs feel like they can't trust him off the field.
Oscar Robertson and Russell Westbrook's names have been linked a lot lately as Westbrook continues to pile up double digits in the stat sheets. Westbrook has accumulated nine triple-doubles this season and seven of those came within a jaw-dropping 12-game stretch. Robertson, of course, knows a thing or two about triple-doubles. In 1961-62, the Big O averaged 30.8 points, 12.5 rebounds and 11.4 assists to become the first and only player to put up a triple-double season.
In the ESPN The Magazine set to hit stands April 13, Robertson was asked about Westbrook's triple-double rampage and said the OKC star has "upped his game."
As much as Westbrook has "upped" his game, it's hard to wrap our heads around doing this for an entire season, which Robertson famously did. It's safe to say Westbrook's 2014-15 season couldn't hold a candle to Robertson's monstrous 1961-62, right?
Not so fast. Because of defensive climate, league pace and playing time, Westbrook's season is just as impressive as Robertson's historic season in 1961-62. As always, context is everything.
A different league
The NBA was so different in 1962 that it doesn't even seem like Westbrook and Robertson played in the same league. For one, there were only nine teams in 1962. There was no 3-point line. The league didn't even track turnovers, steals and blocks, nor did they discern offensive rebounds from defensive ones.
But above all, perhaps the biggest difference between 1962 and 2015 is the pace of play. The NBA operates at a snail's pace compared to the chaotic, helter-skelter hoops of 1962.
Because there was no record-keeping of turnovers, it's difficult to draw an apples-to-apples comparison of how many possessions there were in a typical NBA game back then. However, the genius researchers at Basketball-Reference.com can help paint a picture.
According to their records, Robertson's Cincinnati Royals averaged a baffling 105.2 field goal attempts per game, which was actually on the low end that season compared to the league norm (Red Auerbach's Boston Celtics averaged a league-high 113.9 en route to a championship). The Oklahoma City Thunder this season? That would be 86.2 field goal attempts per game, about 20 field goal attempts fewer. More shots, more misses, more possessions and ultimately more opportunities to rack up per-game stats.
More from ESPN.com
Tom Haberstroh takes you inside the numbers to quantify Russell Westbrook's freakish athleticism. Video
Though it's impossible to get an exact number due to the lack of turnovers, Basketball-Reference estimates that the Royals' pace factor that season was 124.9 possessions per 48 minutes. You remember that double-overtime game in January between the Phoenix Suns and Memphis Grizzlies? It was the longest game of the 2014-15 season, cranking out 123 possessions for each side. And still, Robertson's Royals averaged more than that every game.
This is an important factor when discussing Robertson's triple-double feat. You may think the 124.9 pace figure is too high to be accurate, but we can work back a bit. In that January marathon, Phoenix and Memphis each tallied 100 field goal attempts. The Royals averaged 105.2 on a nightly basis.
This has an obvious inflationary effect on players' statistics of that era. The 1961-62 Royals played 31 percent more possessions than the 2014-15 Thunder, but it's hard to tell that from the treetops because the clock stayed the same at 48 minutes. But players of that era had more opportunities to pile up statistics. This is like if Babe Ruth played in 12-inning games rather than nine.
The 1961-62 Westbrook stat line
Playing on a team that averaged an estimated 124.9 possessions every 48 minutes, Robertson averaged 30.8 points, 12.5 rebounds and 11.4 assists per game in 1961-62. Playing on a team with a 95.5 possessions every 48 minutes, Westbrook has averaged 27.6 points, 7.2 rebounds and 8.6 assists.
OK, you ready for Westbrook's pace-adjusted stat line?
Here you go: 36.1 points, 11.2 assists and 9.4 rebounds per game. 36-11-9.
Oh, you thought I was done? We haven't even made the minutes adjustment yet. I left out a key wrinkle. The stars back in 1961-62 had another inflationary effect to their per-game numbers: they basically played every minute. In fact, Wilt Chamberlain averaged 48.5 minutes per game in 1961-62. Yeah, more than regulation. It's no surprise to learn that that's the same season he averaged 50.4 points per game. He basically never left the court.
He wasn't alone. Bill Russell averaged 45.2 minutes. Elgin Baylor averaged 44.4 minutes. Essentially one player on every team averaged over 40 minutes per game. And Robertson? He averaged 44.3 minutes. When framing Robertson's numbers, that's an important distinction as well. Westbrook this season has somehow packed in 28-9-7 in just 34 minutes per game.
Now let's see what happens to Westbrook's numbers when we adjust for not just Robertson's pace, but his minutes, too.
Westbrook's era-adjusted stat line (warning: this might be NSFW):
Try 46.9 points, 14.6 assists and 12.2 rebounds.
That's not a typo. Statistically, he'd approach 50-15-12 if we adjust for the pace and playing time.
Time-warped Westbrook
Russell Westbrook's averages PTS AST REB
At current NBA levels 27.6 8.6 7.2
At '62 Royals' est. pace 36.1 11.2 9.4
At Robertson's playing time 46.9 14.6 12.2
If this seems extreme, here's what Grantland's Bill Simmons had to say about the zany 1961-62 numbers, in particular Robertson's and Chamberlain's, in "The Book of Basketball" after studying the era:
"Hard to take those numbers at face value, right? And that's before factoring in offensive goaltending (legal at the time), the lack of athletic big men (significant) and poor conditioning (which meant nobody played defense). I watched a DVD of Wilt's 73-point game in New York and two things stood out: First, he looked like a McDonald's All-American center playing junior high kids; nobody had the size or strength to consider dealing with him. Second, because of the balls-to-the-wall speed of the games, the number of touches Wilt received per quarter was almost unfathomable ... Still impressed by Oscar's triple double or Wilt slapping up a 50-25 for the season. Sure ... but not as much."
And that's the right tone. The numbers are still impressive, but we have to put them in the proper context. Simmons, who wrote the book in 2009, went on to mention that Dwyane Wadewould average 35-10-10 if he played in 1962 -- "of course he would." Considering his undersized athleticism and vicious basket-attacking skills, 2009 Wade is probably the closest recent comp to Westbrook.
So, after accounting for pace and playing time, we can estimate what Westbrook's numbers would look like in that era. It doesn't seem like such a stretch once we figure that he's already averaging about 28-9-7 in about 72 possessions per game, and he'd see about 40 more possessions if he played in Robertson's era. That's a ton of opportunities for Westbrook to go baseline-to-baseline in 3.3 seconds and dunk all over everybody.
The caveats
Old-timers probably won't like the statistical adjustments here. And that's fine. There is something to be said for fatigue. The extra 40 or so possessions that Westbrook would be on the court would be taxing on the body and he probably wouldn't be able to maintain those per-minute numbers if he needed to pace himself for a longer night.
But it also seems silly to question Westbrook's stamina against a 1960s defense. If he's putting up triple-doubles against the sophisticated defenses now, just imagine what he'd do in a league where defense wasn't a priority.
Of course, this isn't meant to diminish Robertson's accomplishments. He's still one of the best players ever, and the triple-double season likely won't ever be touched in the same way that we'll probably never see another starting pitcher throw 73 complete games in a season like Old Hoss Radbourn did in 1884.
The goal here is to demonstrate how amazing it is that Westbrook is putting up triple-doubles in just 34 minutes per game. And next time you hear a buddy say it's crazy that Robertson averaged a triple-double for an entire season, feel free to say it was crazy. But so was the league back then. And so is Westbrook's ability to routinely put up triple-doubles now in just a fraction of the time.
News and notes
• Basketball-Reference.com is an indispensable resource for basketball junkies and they just keep adding interesting data sets. Earlier this month, they added a year-by-year referee register for those looking for more accessible zebra information. For example, if Lauren Holtkamp is working your game tonight, you might be in for a long night at the free throw line (plus 3.2 free throw attempts more than average). Of course, there's a bunch of noise in this year-to-year data since there are two other referees. But it's still fun to play around with. Shoutout to Sports Reference mastermind Dave Corby and the crew over there.
http://a.espncdn.com/photo/2015/0320/nba_a_redikk11_288x162.jpg
AP Photo/Danny MoloshokRedikk has been on fire since the All-Star break, equaling Klay Thompson in every facet.
• J.J. Redikk is playing the best ball of his career, averaging 19.8 points per game since the All-Star break while shooting 49.3 percent from the floor, 43.3 percent from deep and 97.9 percent from the line. He and Klay Thompson's numbers are basically indistinguishable at this point. Redikk is quietly a big reason the Clippers have the league's top offense.
• Rockets rookie Clint Capela has arrived. After missing his first 10 field goal attempts in the league (yikes), the 20-year-old Swiss big man threw down some Vine-tastic dunks in Monday's loss to the Raptors en route to eight points, nine rebounds and two blocks in 19 minutes of action. At the D-League, he was averaging 23.6 points, 14.3 rebounds and 4.4 blocks per 36 minutes. For a 20-year-old, that's insane. If you're looking for a late-season Hassan Whiteside sleeper, it's Capela.
• The Milwaukee Bucks slide continues. They have a minus-5.0 net rating since the All-Star Break, which is the fifth-worst mark in the NBA. Think they miss Brandon Knight?
• Good night, Charlotte. The Boston Celtics dealt a crushing blow to the Hornets' playoff chances on Monday night. According to BPI, the Hornets have just a 1.5 percent chance of making the playoffs. Fittingly, Lance Stephenson got the DNP-CD in the most critical game of the season. He is in his first year of a three-year, $27 million contract.
• Trivia time. Of the 150 players who have taken at least 500 shots this season, which one has the furthest average defender distance on those shots? Essentially, who is, on average, the most open? Last ID trivia answer: the San Antonio Spurs have taken the fewest "4-pointers" in the league (34 shots between 28 and 33 feet according to NBAsavant.com)
954UAlreadyknow
All Star
Stock Watch: Towns edging Okafor
March Madness is still rolling. Another weekend and another slate of awesome games gave NBA folks more fodder for their scouting notebooks. With a plethora of NBA prospects playing in the Sweet 16 and Elite Eight (we had 18 players in our Top 30 make it to the Sweet 16, and 12 to the Elite Eight) there were a lot of epic matchups to take in.
Here's the latest feedback from NBA GMs on a number of top prospects, including a new No. 1 pick in our Top 100 for the first time this year.
Players in our Top 30
The Kentucky Kids
Karl-Anthony Towns, F/C, Fr.
Willie Cauley-Stein, F/C, Jr.
Trey Lyles, F, Fr.
Devin Booker, SG, Fr.
Andrew Harrison, G, So.
What a difference one game made for Towns. After a miserable one-point outing in 13 minutes against West Virginia -- that had folks seriously questioning why Towns was being mentioned as a potential No. 1 pick -- the freshman center saved Kentucky's season against Notre Dame, scoring a career-high 25 points on 10-for-13 shooting in 25 minutes (17 points on 8-for-8 shooting in the second half) to go with 5 rebounds, 4 assists, 2 steals and a block. Towns scored more field goals than the rest of Kentucky's starting five combined. This was Towns' signature game and the one scouts will be referring to when they make their case to GMs that he should go No. 1 ahead of Duke's Jahlil Okafor. That case was made by scouts to me this weekend and for the first time this season. As a result, Towns has ascended to No. 1 on our Top 100. Now every scout in the NBA is praying that UK and Duke meet in the championship game so that Towns and Okafor get to battle it out on the floor to help settle who will be the top pick in the draft.
Cauley-Stein continues to be quiet offensively, but on defense he continues to amaze. He made two crazy great plays at the end of the game against Notre Dame to help the Wildcats seal the victory, including a blocked shot on a Jerian Grant 3-pointer with 38 seconds left and then staying with Grant the length of the floor to make sure his last-second shot to win the game from the corner was contested. There are very few 7-footers in the world who can switch like that and keep pace with Grant, one of the more athletic guards in the country.
Lyles continues to make his push into the late lottery as well. He scored 14 points and grabbed seven boards against West Virginia, and had nine points and five rebounds against Notre Dame. What especially intrigues scouts is Lyles' footwork and skill in the post. He's been playing out of position at small forward all season for the Wildcats, and scouts believe the post will be his home in the pros. Those little glimpses of his play there are what keep him in the discussion for the late lottery.
Booker broke out of his monthlong shooting slump over the weekend, shooting 9-for-14 from the field and 4-for-8 from 3. His stock has been a little dinged the past month and these two solid performances help a bit, but he could use a big Final Four.
The push for Andrew Harrison back in the Top 30 took a little bit of a hit this weekend after two fairly unimpressive performances. He averaged as many turnovers as assists in games against West Virginia and Notre Dame, and shot just 2-for-8 from the field. On the plus side, his two made free throws with six seconds left gave the Wildcats the win on Saturday.
Jahlil Okafor, C, Fr., Duke
Prior to the weekend, Okafor had been No. 1 all season in our Top 100. However, his grip has been slipping for a while and, on Sunday, I moved him to No. 2 after extensive feedback from scouts this weekend. Okafor is still No. 1 on many NBA boards, but I believe he's no longer No. 1 on the majority of them. This weekend he had just six points and eight rebounds against Utah on Friday and clearly struggled with the length of Utah freshman Jakob Poeltl. On Sunday, he struggled a bit with the size and strength of Gonzaga big man Przemek Karnowski, scoring just nine points on 4-for-10 shooting.
The bigger issue, however, is Okafor's continued mediocre defensive play. He doesn't play with the urgency of other elite players on the floor and it's scaring NBA teams a bit. He's clearly the most polished offensive big man to come along in a while. But will he have the motor and toughness to do the job on both ends?
"I think in a head-to-head matchup, Towns could defend Okafor, but I don't think Okafor could defend Towns," said an NBA scout. "As good as Okafor is offensively, head-to-head, I think Towns would come out ahead."
Scouts and GMs are praying that next Monday they'll get to find out for themselves.
Justise Winslow, G/F, Fr., Duke
Stanley Johnson, G/F, Fr., Arizona
Winslow continues to pull ahead of a loaded wing pack that includes Johnson, Kelly Oubre and Mario Hezonja. After they essentially stood neck-and-neck for most of the season, Winslow's strong play in March has put him firmly in the lead among the top wing prospects in the draft. If he nails his workouts, he should be the first wing off the board on draft night.
Winslow continued to show why he's an elite prospect in this year's draft. Next to Sam Dekker, he might be having the best tournament of anyone in our Top 30. I moved him up to No. 6 on our Top 100 last week and it still feels too low. He had a dominant game against Utah, scoring 21 points, grabbing 10 rebounds and shooting 3-for-4 from beyond the arc. On Sunday, he hurt his ankle early in the Gonzaga game and wasn't quite the same, but still managed to score 16 points, grab five rebounds and hit a couple of 3s. He was everywhere at the end of the game and it often feels like Winslow, not Okafor, is the most important player on Duke's roster. Some scouts think he could be another Kawhi Leonard in the NBA. Others see a young Michael Kidd-Gilchrist. Either way, he's clearly the No. 1-ranked wing in the Top 100 and I'd be surprised if that changes before the draft.
Johnson was solid but far from great in Arizona's games against Xavier and Wisconsin. He had 12 points, six rebounds and a pair of 3s against Xavier in a win, but was plagued by foul trouble the entire game against Wisconsin and finished with just six points and three turnovers. He also shot just 2-for-6 from 3-point range over the weekend. At this point, scouts who are sold on Johnson won't be dissuaded by a few mediocre games, while the ones who aren't sold have a little more ammunition to add to the arsenal. He's projected to go in the six-to-12 range, but I think it's closer to the latter part of that forecast.
On a side note, a ton of NBA scouts went to Spain this week to see Hezonja's FC Barcelona play Kristaps Porzingis' Sevilla. Hezonja played just six minutes and had zero points. He's essentially fallen from a starter to a bit role player for Barcelona the past month -- not because of his play, but more likely because Barcelona is hoping to hurt his draft stock a little so that he'll return for another season. Meanwhile, Porzingis had 18 points on 8-for-18 shooting.
Kevon Looney, F, Fr., UCLA
Looney had another solid game in the tournament, posting 9 points, 8 rebounds, 1 assist, 1 steal and a block in a loss to Gonzaga. He still has lacked assertiveness since suffering the facial fracture in the Pac-12 tournament and, overall, he just isn't the same player we've seen most of the season. Scouts are willing to let most of it pass. It's his length, skill set and toughness they are after. But it wouldn't hurt Looney to return to school for his sophomore season. He could add strength, continue to work on his perimeter game and be a top-five pick in 2016. As it stands, he's probably in the seven-to-12 range.
Frank Kaminsky, C, Sr., Wisconsin
Sam Dekker, F, Jr., Wisconsin
Nigel Hayes, F, So., Wisconsin
The Badgers' big three continue to have a great tournament, and scouts are drooling to see them match up against Kentucky on Saturday.
Kaminsky continues to show his unique versatility for a 7-footer. Not only can he rebound, protect the rim and shoot the 3, but he's very skilled at catching the ball on the high post and creating for himself off the dribble. He had two outstanding games against North Carolina and Arizona, going for 19 points and eight boards against the Tar Heels while posting 29 points and six rebounds against the Wildcats. NBA scouts tend to be leery of seniors, especially ones who aren't explosive athletes, but Kaminsky has won most of them over. He should be a lottery pick and could go as high as No. 9 or 10. Scouts can't wait to see him matched up head-to-head with Towns and/or Cauley-Stein on Saturday.
No one has helped himself in the tournament more than Dekker. After a 20-point game against Coastal Carolina and a 17-point outing against Oregon, he took it to another level against North Carolina and Arizona. Facing two very good defenders in UNC's J.P. Tokoto and Arizona's Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Dekker scored 23 points and grabbed 10 boards against the Tar Heels and added 27 points and five boards against Arizona. He's been doing everything for the Badgers, but what really has scouts excited is his shooting: He's shot 13-for-27 from 3-point range in the tournament. When Dekker is nailing jump shots and playing with the swagger he has this tournament, he looks like a lottery pick. He's been as high as No. 18 on our Big Board and as low as 25, but with his strong play over the past month he's now in the late teens. A big game against Kentucky on Saturday could push him even higher.
Hayes continues to draw interest in the first round, though his play was uneven against both North Carolina and Arizona. He had 12 points and six rebounds versus the Tar Heels, but shot just 3-for-10 from the field and 0-for-4 from 3. He had 9 points, 3 rebounds and 4 assists versus Arizona while going 2-for-4 from deep. What's clear is that 3-point shooting is going to be a key to Hayes' draft position. Most scouts believe he's too undersized to be a 4 in the NBA. They want to see that perimeter game. He reminds me a bit of a young Draymond Green.
Jerian Grant, PG, Sr., Notre Dame
Grant played every minute for Notre Dame in this tournament, a whopping 165 minutes in four games. While he didn't have a breakout game and struggled with his shooting stroke (he went 2-for-8 from 3 and just 7-for-24 from the field this weekend), he showed off his hypercompetitiveness, an advanced feel for the pick-and-roll game, hit a couple of big shots and had 17 assists to just three turnovers this weekend, outplaying both Andrew Harrison and Tyler Ulis. Grant's play likely secured the senior a place as a top-20 pick in this year's draft.
Jakob Poeltl, C, Fr. Utah
Delon Wright, PG, Sr., Utah
Poeltl continues to see his draft stock rise following another strong performance, this time against potential No. 1 pick Jahlil Okafor. Poeltl had 10 points, 8 rebounds and 3 blocks in 27 minutes. Those aren't huge numbers, but his defense on Okafor drew praise from scouts. Okafor finished the game with a career-low six points and much of that was attributed to Poeltl's length. The Utes center strengthened his case dramatically for being taken in the late lottery to mid-first round. He's been ranked in the teens since December on our Big Board, and if he stays in the draft, that's exactly where he's likely to be picked.
Wright again struggled offensively, shooting just 4-for-13 from the field. He did have six assists, just two turnovers and three steals, but he didn't help himself the past couple of weeks and might have even hurt his stock a little. As a senior, scouts expected a steadier presence than what Wright delivered the past three games.
Montrezl Harrell, PF, Jr., Louisville
Terry Rozier, PG, So., Louisville
Harrell was terrific against North Carolina State, scoring 24 points, grabbing seven rebounds and shooting 9-for-12 from the field. When he's filled with energy and passion, he's a handful on both ends of the court. He got off to a great start against Michigan State, going 6-for-7 from the field and leading Louisville to an eight-point first-half lead. But he fell apart in the second half, going 0-for-5 from the field while looking like he was out of gas. It wasn't the way Harrell wanted to end his career or the last impression he wanted to leave for NBA scouts. His stock has taken some minor hits in recent weeks. After looking like a lock to land somewhere in the teens, he's now slipped into the 20s on our Big Board. Of course, that positioning depends on whether every underclassman decides to declare for the draft.
Rozier also had a solid game against North Carolina State, scoring 17 points and grabbing 14 rebounds. His toughness and athleticism are the major appeal and they were on full display in both games. However, against Michigan State, the biggest knock against Rozier reared its ugly head: shot selection. He shot just 6-for-23 from the field and many of the shots he took were ugly ones -- the type that coaches never want their point guards taking. With so many teams concerned that Rozier still hasn't shown command of the point guard position, Sunday's performance didn't help. Like Harrell, he's probably going in the late teens to early 20s if he declares, but his last impression this season wasn't a good one.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, G/F, So., Arizona
Hollis-Jefferson had a rough game against Xavier, scoring five points and shooting just 1-for-4 from the field. He was better offensively versus Wisconsin, scoring 17 points and grabbing eight boards, but eventually fouled out and didn't have the same dominating defensive presence he's brought in the past. Hollis-Jefferson's season is now over and it will be interesting to see if he decides to declare for the draft. Scouts love his defense but are very worried about his ability to score in the NBA. Does he return for his junior season and work hard all summer on his jumper, or does he declare now and settle for a pick somewhere in the 17-to-25 range?
Tyus Jones, PG, Fr., Duke
Jones has been solid in the tournament and was especially effective against Gonzaga on Sunday, scoring 15 points, making six assists and committing zero turnovers. His lack of elite size and athleticism limits his ceiling, but few point guards possess his basketball IQ or steadiness.
Domantas Sabonis, PF, Fr., Gonzaga
Sabonis continued to show why scouts think he could be a first-round pick in the draft this year if he declared. Sabonis had 12 points and eight rebounds off the bench in 21 minutes versus UCLA, followed by nine points and four rebounds against Duke. He's big, active, mobile and is one of the best rebounders, per minute, in college basketball. The fact that he could be a draft-and-stash candidate also helps his chances of going somewhere in the 20s if he decides to declare for the 2015 draft.
Other prospects of note
Cameron Payne, PG, So., Murray State
Payne wasn't playing in the Big Dance, but he got several nationally televised games in the NIT and shined for Murray State. Payne had 14 points, 10 assists and 7 rebounds against UTEP in the opening round, 20 points and seven assists against Tulsa in just 25 minutes (while shooting 5-for-8 from 3), and 23 points and six assists in a loss to Old Dominion in the NIT quarterfinals.
Payne is a hot name right now among NBA scouts, and for good reason: He sees the floor as well as any point guard in the draft, has a terrific assist-to-turnover ratio, and has become a much improved shooter. He needs to get stronger, but several scouts believe he's the third-best point guard in the draft right now behind Emmanuel Mudiay and D'Angelo Russell. We moved him up to No. 30 last week in our Top 100 update and we've moved him up a few more spots to No. 23 in this week's rank. If he declares, he should be a first-round lock.
Zach Auguste, F/C, Jr. Notre Dame
Auguste had the breakout game of his career against Kentucky on Saturday, scoring 20 points, grabbing nine rebounds and essentially doing just about whatever he wanted in the paint against UK's vaunted frontcourt of Cauley-Stein and Towns. He had a great tournament overall, posting 15 points and six rebounds against Wichita State; seven points and 13 boards against Butler; and 25 points and five rebounds versus Northeastern. He has size, athleticism and can explode near the rim, but his lack of elite rebounding and shot-blocking skills probably means he's more of a second-round pick should he decide to forgo his senior season at Notre Dame.
Justin Jackson, F, Fr., North Carolina
Jackson had another terrific tourney game against Wisconsin on Thursday, scoring 16 points and shooting 3-for-3 from behind the arc. Jackson dramatically improved his 3-point shot in the months of February and March. Pair that with a creative floater and great length for his position, and he's an interesting prospect. He's not a great athlete and needs to get stronger, but he's the best NBA prospect on the Tar Heels and would likely sneak into the first round if he declared for the draft.
Fred VanVleet, PG, Jr., Wichita State
If VanVleet, as Kevin Pelton noted, were two or three inches taller, we'd probably be talking about him as a lottery pick. Few, if any, point guards in the draft have his feel for the game. He was terrific, once again, against Notre Dame, with 25 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists and no turnovers. With strong games against Indiana, Kansas and Notre Dame he proved he can play with the elite teams in college basketball. But at 5-foot-11, is he tall enough to excel in the NBA?
Jalen Reynolds, PF, So., Xavier
Reynolds is built like an NBA power forward, has pro-level athleticism and is coming off two big games against Georgia State and Arizona in which he looked the part of a potential NBA player, slamming home dunk after dunk against the competition. But he's already a 22-year-old sophomore and his offensive game is still a major work in progress. Plus, he's very foul prone. He might be tempted to declare after such a great tournament, but he's a late second-round pick at best.
Grant played every minute for Notre Dame in this tournament, a whopping 165 minutes in four games. While he didn't have a breakout game and struggled with his shooting stroke (he went 2-for-8 from 3 and just 7-for-24 from the field this weekend), he showed off his hypercompetitiveness, an advanced feel for the pick-and-roll game, hit a couple of big shots and had 17 assists to just three turnovers this weekend, outplaying both Andrew Harrison and Tyler Ulis. Grant's play likely secured the senior a place as a top-20 pick in this year's draft.
Jakob Poeltl, C, Fr. Utah
Delon Wright, PG, Sr., Utah
Poeltl continues to see his draft stock rise following another strong performance, this time against potential No. 1 pick Jahlil Okafor. Poeltl had 10 points, 8 rebounds and 3 blocks in 27 minutes. Those aren't huge numbers, but his defense on Okafor drew praise from scouts. Okafor finished the game with a career-low six points and much of that was attributed to Poeltl's length. The Utes center strengthened his case dramatically for being taken in the late lottery to mid-first round. He's been ranked in the teens since December on our Big Board, and if he stays in the draft, that's exactly where he's likely to be picked.
Wright again struggled offensively, shooting just 4-for-13 from the field. He did have six assists, just two turnovers and three steals, but he didn't help himself the past couple of weeks and might have even hurt his stock a little. As a senior, scouts expected a steadier presence than what Wright delivered the past three games.
Montrezl Harrell, PF, Jr., Louisville
Terry Rozier, PG, So., Louisville
Harrell was terrific against North Carolina State, scoring 24 points, grabbing seven rebounds and shooting 9-for-12 from the field. When he's filled with energy and passion, he's a handful on both ends of the court. He got off to a great start against Michigan State, going 6-for-7 from the field and leading Louisville to an eight-point first-half lead. But he fell apart in the second half, going 0-for-5 from the field while looking like he was out of gas. It wasn't the way Harrell wanted to end his career or the last impression he wanted to leave for NBA scouts. His stock has taken some minor hits in recent weeks. After looking like a lock to land somewhere in the teens, he's now slipped into the 20s on our Big Board. Of course, that positioning depends on whether every underclassman decides to declare for the draft.
Rozier also had a solid game against North Carolina State, scoring 17 points and grabbing 14 rebounds. His toughness and athleticism are the major appeal and they were on full display in both games. However, against Michigan State, the biggest knock against Rozier reared its ugly head: shot selection. He shot just 6-for-23 from the field and many of the shots he took were ugly ones -- the type that coaches never want their point guards taking. With so many teams concerned that Rozier still hasn't shown command of the point guard position, Sunday's performance didn't help. Like Harrell, he's probably going in the late teens to early 20s if he declares, but his last impression this season wasn't a good one.
Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, G/F, So., Arizona
Hollis-Jefferson had a rough game against Xavier, scoring five points and shooting just 1-for-4 from the field. He was better offensively versus Wisconsin, scoring 17 points and grabbing eight boards, but eventually fouled out and didn't have the same dominating defensive presence he's brought in the past. Hollis-Jefferson's season is now over and it will be interesting to see if he decides to declare for the draft. Scouts love his defense but are very worried about his ability to score in the NBA. Does he return for his junior season and work hard all summer on his jumper, or does he declare now and settle for a pick somewhere in the 17-to-25 range?
Tyus Jones, PG, Fr., Duke
Jones has been solid in the tournament and was especially effective against Gonzaga on Sunday, scoring 15 points, making six assists and committing zero turnovers. His lack of elite size and athleticism limits his ceiling, but few point guards possess his basketball IQ or steadiness.
Domantas Sabonis, PF, Fr., Gonzaga
Sabonis continued to show why scouts think he could be a first-round pick in the draft this year if he declared. Sabonis had 12 points and eight rebounds off the bench in 21 minutes versus UCLA, followed by nine points and four rebounds against Duke. He's big, active, mobile and is one of the best rebounders, per minute, in college basketball. The fact that he could be a draft-and-stash candidate also helps his chances of going somewhere in the 20s if he decides to declare for the 2015 draft.
Other prospects of note
Cameron Payne, PG, So., Murray State
Payne wasn't playing in the Big Dance, but he got several nationally televised games in the NIT and shined for Murray State. Payne had 14 points, 10 assists and 7 rebounds against UTEP in the opening round, 20 points and seven assists against Tulsa in just 25 minutes (while shooting 5-for-8 from 3), and 23 points and six assists in a loss to Old Dominion in the NIT quarterfinals.
Payne is a hot name right now among NBA scouts, and for good reason: He sees the floor as well as any point guard in the draft, has a terrific assist-to-turnover ratio, and has become a much improved shooter. He needs to get stronger, but several scouts believe he's the third-best point guard in the draft right now behind Emmanuel Mudiay and D'Angelo Russell. We moved him up to No. 30 last week in our Top 100 update and we've moved him up a few more spots to No. 23 in this week's rank. If he declares, he should be a first-round lock.
Zach Auguste, F/C, Jr. Notre Dame
Auguste had the breakout game of his career against Kentucky on Saturday, scoring 20 points, grabbing nine rebounds and essentially doing just about whatever he wanted in the paint against UK's vaunted frontcourt of Cauley-Stein and Towns. He had a great tournament overall, posting 15 points and six rebounds against Wichita State; seven points and 13 boards against Butler; and 25 points and five rebounds versus Northeastern. He has size, athleticism and can explode near the rim, but his lack of elite rebounding and shot-blocking skills probably means he's more of a second-round pick should he decide to forgo his senior season at Notre Dame.
Justin Jackson, F, Fr., North Carolina
Jackson had another terrific tourney game against Wisconsin on Thursday, scoring 16 points and shooting 3-for-3 from behind the arc. Jackson dramatically improved his 3-point shot in the months of February and March. Pair that with a creative floater and great length for his position, and he's an interesting prospect. He's not a great athlete and needs to get stronger, but he's the best NBA prospect on the Tar Heels and would likely sneak into the first round if he declared for the draft.
Fred VanVleet, PG, Jr., Wichita State
If VanVleet, as Kevin Pelton noted, were two or three inches taller, we'd probably be talking about him as a lottery pick. Few, if any, point guards in the draft have his feel for the game. He was terrific, once again, against Notre Dame, with 25 points, 6 rebounds, 3 assists and no turnovers. With strong games against Indiana, Kansas and Notre Dame he proved he can play with the elite teams in college basketball. But at 5-foot-11, is he tall enough to excel in the NBA?
Jalen Reynolds, PF, So., Xavier
Reynolds is built like an NBA power forward, has pro-level athleticism and is coming off two big games against Georgia State and Arizona in which he looked the part of a potential NBA player, slamming home dunk after dunk against the competition. But he's already a 22-year-old sophomore and his offensive game is still a major work in progress. Plus, he's very foul prone. He might be tempted to declare after such a great tournament, but he's a late second-round pick at best.
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NBA scouts' Final Four reaction
INDIANAPOLIS -- The 2015 Final Four was loaded with NBA prospects. In fact, one NBA general manager told ESPN that if everyone who played Saturday made themselves available for this year's NBA draft, 14 could be drafted overall -- and 10 could be selected in the first round.
We spoke to a handful of NBA scouts and executives after their performances to find out who helped themselves, and who didn't, during Saturday's action:
Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky (No. 1 in Jeff Goodman Mock Draft 3.0)
"[Kentucky coach John] Calipari needed to get the ball to him more. The guy was having his way when the ball found him in the post. He's so long and versatile, but he doesn't force anything. I didn't think he played his best game, but he's still either the first or second pick."
"I thought he was average. Nothing special. He was good on the offensive glass, but other than that he cannot command a double-team."
"Good feet and hands. Lots of upside, but I'm worried about the strength in his legs. Not a lot of lift in the post. Scores in the post. Should be able to extend his range."
"He's a top-two pick and still may go [No. 1]. Very bright future."
"Towns was solid. Showed his ability to score when they throw him the ball. His last game didn't do anything to hurt the argument he could go No. 1."
Jahlil Okafor, Duke (No. 2 in Jeff Goodman Mock Draft 3.0)
"Okafor dominated -- paint points and took up space. He didn't rebound at a high level, but did a solid job putting a body on someone, and he kept others off the glass. Free throw shooting continues to plague him."
"He was efficient, and did what he does. He scores in the post with a variety of moves, rebounds well, and finishes. He was just OK defensively, but it didn't matter against Michigan State's big men."
"He proved he is the top pick. He was mobile, aggressive and dominant."
"He's the most NBA-ready player in the draft -- and he showed that tonight."
"Big-time skill level inside. He continues to show the potential to be a go-to guy offensively. Has to get better at the other end. He'll be either the No. 1 or 2 pick."
Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky (No. 8 in Jeff Goodman Mock Draft 3.0)
"Cauley-Stein couldn't impact the game. Wisconsin had an unbelievable game plan, and minimized his presence. It won't change his stock, but he was exposed as challenged offensively."
"He's an acquired taste. He has to fit into a system. He will never be an offensive, go-to guy, but his ability to guard is unparalleled. He moves his feet like no big. In a league that lives in screen-and-roll, he is the best big screen/roll defender in the college game because of his feet."
"He's the best 7-foot athlete I've ever seen. Somewhere between Tyson Chandler and Kenyon Martin. I think his offense has gotten better and his defense can change the game."
"Cauley-Stein won't be hurt by one game. He has had a terrific season and in this one showed his unique athleticism. Top 5."
Justise Winslow, Duke (No. 11 in Jeff Goodman Mock Draft 3.0)
"Winslow made the most of his opportunities. He created offense with his defense, did a great job of rebounding. He overcame some bum calls. Got to the line, had active hands and was solid at both ends. He has solidified himself as a two-way player. I'm not sure I trust his shooting stroke. He needs a lot of work to become a consistent threat from the perimeter."
"He helped himself immensely, because he has been on an upward trajectory, and he did it on a big stage tonight."
"He's one of my favorite guys -- if not my favorite -- in this year's draft. He is all over the place on both ends. He's diving, he rebounds his position and can drive it. He can go as high as three or four overall, and won't go any lower than 10."
"He's playing power forward, but he's a beast going to the basket. Multiple-position defender that can be elite. As his offense continues to develop to go with the body and defense, he has a bright future. He'll be a lottery pick for sure."
"He's really improved from the start of the season. His handle needs to improve in traffic, and he needs to become a better shooter off the bounce. He's a top-10 pick."
Devin Booker, Kentucky (No. 12 in Jeff Goodman Mock Draft 3.0)
"He's lottery. Scores easy and is an excellent shooter. Got switched out too often vs. length and can't guard taller guys effectively."
"Should come back because he is a long way to go -- he had no idea how to play with the twins and those bigs. He can be the next Bradley Beal, but in a year -- not now. He will sit next year and not get better if he comes out."
"Great size for a shooter. Great stroke. Needs to get better at creating his own shot, but he's a lottery pick."
Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin (No. 14 in Jeff Goodman Mock Draft 3.0)
"He was tremendous on the offensive end and stayed out of foul trouble. He got whatever he wanted, and is so versatile. I thought he was overall the best player on the floor and he's gone from anonymous to a possible lottery pick now."
"Below NBA standards athletically, but very sharp basketball IQ and confidence."
"He's a matchup problem for anyone because of the way he handles it, and how he shoots it. He is one of the most versatile bigs in recent memory because of his skill set."
"Showed a great basketball IQ and tremendous footwork in the post. He put the ball on the floor from the high post. Good passer. Will be good with pick-and-pop. Not a very good athlete, but the performance against Kentucky will help him. Good shooter."
"Kaminsky played as well as you could have vs. Kentucky's bigs. Continues to show excellent skills for his size. Lottery."
Trey Lyles, Kentucky (No. 16 in Jeff Goodman Mock Draft 3.0)
"He's skilled, but just doesn't get enough touches. I'm not sure that [would] change next season. I think he goes somewhere from 15 to 20 because of his skill level."
"He's an enigma. Has a chance to be really good, but the system was not set up to make him shine."
"Lots of upside. Good feet and moves well laterally. Very good shooter to 17 feet. Needs to extend his range."
Sam Dekker, Wisconsin (No. 22 in Jeff Goodman Mock Draft 3.0)
"Solidified himself. Made some amazing plays and took big [guts] shots. His handle is wild at times, but he was effective."
"He didn't do much for a long stretch of the game, but he stepped up again when it counted. No one has boosted their stock more in this tournament. He was a late-first-rounder a couple weeks ago. Now he's a lottery pick."
"He's raised his stock in a huge way. He has the confidence of Rocky Balboa right now."
"Great size for a 3. Good athlete. Explosive off the floor. Ballhandling needs to improve in traffic. Plays erect ... could be a very good defensive player. Played very well in the NCAA tournament which will help in draft. Top-20 pick. Needs to become a better shooter. If you look at the slot of his baskets in tournament they were against much smaller defenders -- I don't see this happening in the NBA."
"Dekker continued his great play of the last couple of weeks. He seems to really have found his groove, solidifying him in the first round."
Dakari Johnson, Kentucky (No. 30 in Jeff Goodman Mock Draft 3.0)
"He is what he is. He has good size and can score in the post, but the problem is he was stuck behind Cauley-Stein and Towns. I think he could have given Kaminsky some problems -- if they ever threw him the ball."
"He's one of the most underrated bigs in the country. He should come back because he will be a focal point of UK's system next year and be a lottery pick. But if he chooses to leave, he will get picked late in the first round and make someone look like a genius."
"Limited low-post game, but has improved. Late-first-round pick. Plays through contact. Rebounds in traffic. Solid backup."
Tyus Jones, Duke
"He was just solid tonight, but he didn't need to be more than that. He just makes people better and controls the game. Uses angles well, and knows how to play. I think he's a guy who will be drafted somewhere from 15 to 25."
"Tyus Jones continues to help himself as a solid playmaker with court vision and coach-like instincts. He makes the game easy for his teammates -- delivers the ball in the right spots and to the correct hand. He's an efficient player."
"He's a coach on the floor. He doesn't blow you away with the highlights, but he just makes you win. Will probably be drafted lower than he should be, but will gain the trust of his coach and be a long-time starter in the league. Has shown the ability to make big shots, even though shooting the ball is secondary to him."
"He's solid, but I don't know if he's anything more than an NBA backup at the end of the day."
"Tyus is small, but mighty. A true point guard that can play at a variety of speeds."
Andrew Harrison, Kentucky
"The twins will have a tough next few days, but they will both play in the NBA. For the obvious flaws, both have size and can shoot, make plays and played hard. Just insane how they tried to take over."
"He and his brother are nothing more than roster players. Really struggles to create their own shot. Not good shooters. Mid-second-round picks."
"He's not as good as he thinks he is."
Aaron Harrison, Kentucky
"Did not shrink from the spotlight, but didn't make his team better. The twins hijacked the game down the stretch. Towns should have had every touch."
"The Harrisons had great first halves but then faded in the second. They have helped themselves down the stretch of the season and both have a chance to be second-round guys."
"Like his brother, he's not as good as he thinks he is. They both have an overinflated value of their worth."
"His entire game is based on hitting big shots. He's a mediocre shooter and doesn't do much else. Second-rounder."
INDIANAPOLIS -- The 2015 Final Four was loaded with NBA prospects. In fact, one NBA general manager told ESPN that if everyone who played Saturday made themselves available for this year's NBA draft, 14 could be drafted overall -- and 10 could be selected in the first round.
We spoke to a handful of NBA scouts and executives after their performances to find out who helped themselves, and who didn't, during Saturday's action:
Karl-Anthony Towns, Kentucky (No. 1 in Jeff Goodman Mock Draft 3.0)
"[Kentucky coach John] Calipari needed to get the ball to him more. The guy was having his way when the ball found him in the post. He's so long and versatile, but he doesn't force anything. I didn't think he played his best game, but he's still either the first or second pick."
"I thought he was average. Nothing special. He was good on the offensive glass, but other than that he cannot command a double-team."
"Good feet and hands. Lots of upside, but I'm worried about the strength in his legs. Not a lot of lift in the post. Scores in the post. Should be able to extend his range."
"He's a top-two pick and still may go [No. 1]. Very bright future."
"Towns was solid. Showed his ability to score when they throw him the ball. His last game didn't do anything to hurt the argument he could go No. 1."
Jahlil Okafor, Duke (No. 2 in Jeff Goodman Mock Draft 3.0)
"Okafor dominated -- paint points and took up space. He didn't rebound at a high level, but did a solid job putting a body on someone, and he kept others off the glass. Free throw shooting continues to plague him."
"He was efficient, and did what he does. He scores in the post with a variety of moves, rebounds well, and finishes. He was just OK defensively, but it didn't matter against Michigan State's big men."
"He proved he is the top pick. He was mobile, aggressive and dominant."
"He's the most NBA-ready player in the draft -- and he showed that tonight."
"Big-time skill level inside. He continues to show the potential to be a go-to guy offensively. Has to get better at the other end. He'll be either the No. 1 or 2 pick."
Willie Cauley-Stein, Kentucky (No. 8 in Jeff Goodman Mock Draft 3.0)
"Cauley-Stein couldn't impact the game. Wisconsin had an unbelievable game plan, and minimized his presence. It won't change his stock, but he was exposed as challenged offensively."
"He's an acquired taste. He has to fit into a system. He will never be an offensive, go-to guy, but his ability to guard is unparalleled. He moves his feet like no big. In a league that lives in screen-and-roll, he is the best big screen/roll defender in the college game because of his feet."
"He's the best 7-foot athlete I've ever seen. Somewhere between Tyson Chandler and Kenyon Martin. I think his offense has gotten better and his defense can change the game."
"Cauley-Stein won't be hurt by one game. He has had a terrific season and in this one showed his unique athleticism. Top 5."
Justise Winslow, Duke (No. 11 in Jeff Goodman Mock Draft 3.0)
"Winslow made the most of his opportunities. He created offense with his defense, did a great job of rebounding. He overcame some bum calls. Got to the line, had active hands and was solid at both ends. He has solidified himself as a two-way player. I'm not sure I trust his shooting stroke. He needs a lot of work to become a consistent threat from the perimeter."
"He helped himself immensely, because he has been on an upward trajectory, and he did it on a big stage tonight."
"He's one of my favorite guys -- if not my favorite -- in this year's draft. He is all over the place on both ends. He's diving, he rebounds his position and can drive it. He can go as high as three or four overall, and won't go any lower than 10."
"He's playing power forward, but he's a beast going to the basket. Multiple-position defender that can be elite. As his offense continues to develop to go with the body and defense, he has a bright future. He'll be a lottery pick for sure."
"He's really improved from the start of the season. His handle needs to improve in traffic, and he needs to become a better shooter off the bounce. He's a top-10 pick."
Devin Booker, Kentucky (No. 12 in Jeff Goodman Mock Draft 3.0)
"He's lottery. Scores easy and is an excellent shooter. Got switched out too often vs. length and can't guard taller guys effectively."
"Should come back because he is a long way to go -- he had no idea how to play with the twins and those bigs. He can be the next Bradley Beal, but in a year -- not now. He will sit next year and not get better if he comes out."
"Great size for a shooter. Great stroke. Needs to get better at creating his own shot, but he's a lottery pick."
Frank Kaminsky, Wisconsin (No. 14 in Jeff Goodman Mock Draft 3.0)
"He was tremendous on the offensive end and stayed out of foul trouble. He got whatever he wanted, and is so versatile. I thought he was overall the best player on the floor and he's gone from anonymous to a possible lottery pick now."
"Below NBA standards athletically, but very sharp basketball IQ and confidence."
"He's a matchup problem for anyone because of the way he handles it, and how he shoots it. He is one of the most versatile bigs in recent memory because of his skill set."
"Showed a great basketball IQ and tremendous footwork in the post. He put the ball on the floor from the high post. Good passer. Will be good with pick-and-pop. Not a very good athlete, but the performance against Kentucky will help him. Good shooter."
"Kaminsky played as well as you could have vs. Kentucky's bigs. Continues to show excellent skills for his size. Lottery."
Trey Lyles, Kentucky (No. 16 in Jeff Goodman Mock Draft 3.0)
"He's skilled, but just doesn't get enough touches. I'm not sure that [would] change next season. I think he goes somewhere from 15 to 20 because of his skill level."
"He's an enigma. Has a chance to be really good, but the system was not set up to make him shine."
"Lots of upside. Good feet and moves well laterally. Very good shooter to 17 feet. Needs to extend his range."
Sam Dekker, Wisconsin (No. 22 in Jeff Goodman Mock Draft 3.0)
"Solidified himself. Made some amazing plays and took big [guts] shots. His handle is wild at times, but he was effective."
"He didn't do much for a long stretch of the game, but he stepped up again when it counted. No one has boosted their stock more in this tournament. He was a late-first-rounder a couple weeks ago. Now he's a lottery pick."
"He's raised his stock in a huge way. He has the confidence of Rocky Balboa right now."
"Great size for a 3. Good athlete. Explosive off the floor. Ballhandling needs to improve in traffic. Plays erect ... could be a very good defensive player. Played very well in the NCAA tournament which will help in draft. Top-20 pick. Needs to become a better shooter. If you look at the slot of his baskets in tournament they were against much smaller defenders -- I don't see this happening in the NBA."
"Dekker continued his great play of the last couple of weeks. He seems to really have found his groove, solidifying him in the first round."
Dakari Johnson, Kentucky (No. 30 in Jeff Goodman Mock Draft 3.0)
"He is what he is. He has good size and can score in the post, but the problem is he was stuck behind Cauley-Stein and Towns. I think he could have given Kaminsky some problems -- if they ever threw him the ball."
"He's one of the most underrated bigs in the country. He should come back because he will be a focal point of UK's system next year and be a lottery pick. But if he chooses to leave, he will get picked late in the first round and make someone look like a genius."
"Limited low-post game, but has improved. Late-first-round pick. Plays through contact. Rebounds in traffic. Solid backup."
Tyus Jones, Duke
"He was just solid tonight, but he didn't need to be more than that. He just makes people better and controls the game. Uses angles well, and knows how to play. I think he's a guy who will be drafted somewhere from 15 to 25."
"Tyus Jones continues to help himself as a solid playmaker with court vision and coach-like instincts. He makes the game easy for his teammates -- delivers the ball in the right spots and to the correct hand. He's an efficient player."
"He's a coach on the floor. He doesn't blow you away with the highlights, but he just makes you win. Will probably be drafted lower than he should be, but will gain the trust of his coach and be a long-time starter in the league. Has shown the ability to make big shots, even though shooting the ball is secondary to him."
"He's solid, but I don't know if he's anything more than an NBA backup at the end of the day."
"Tyus is small, but mighty. A true point guard that can play at a variety of speeds."
Andrew Harrison, Kentucky
"The twins will have a tough next few days, but they will both play in the NBA. For the obvious flaws, both have size and can shoot, make plays and played hard. Just insane how they tried to take over."
"He and his brother are nothing more than roster players. Really struggles to create their own shot. Not good shooters. Mid-second-round picks."
"He's not as good as he thinks he is."
Aaron Harrison, Kentucky
"Did not shrink from the spotlight, but didn't make his team better. The twins hijacked the game down the stretch. Towns should have had every touch."
"The Harrisons had great first halves but then faded in the second. They have helped themselves down the stretch of the season and both have a chance to be second-round guys."
"Like his brother, he's not as good as he thinks he is. They both have an overinflated value of their worth."
"His entire game is based on hitting big shots. He's a mediocre shooter and doesn't do much else. Second-rounder."
