Should Bucs draft Mariota or Winston? By NFL Front Office
Mark Dominik serves as our general manager, Herm Edwards as our head coach, Louis Riddikk as our director of pro personnel, Aaron Schatz as our director of analytics and Mel Kiper as our director of college scouting.
Mark Dominik (general manager): I'm stating the obvious here, but our pick at No. 1 has to be either Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota. We aren't entertaining any trade offers. It is too important that we solidify the quarterback position long-term, and even though both of these guys present some concerns, I feel like both have the potential to be really good quarterbacks in the NFL.
I have a pretty strong idea of which one I prefer already, but let's talk through the pros and cons of each and hear everybody's recommendations.
Mel Kiper (director of college scouting): My question is this: Are we drafting a quarterback for our current coach, or are we drafting one for the next coach, and maybe the next front office? Because if we're drafting with the goal of helping the team we have to get better, and keeping our jobs, I think Winston is the pick we need to make.
Put it this way: Winston is clearly a better prospect than Mariota in terms of his ability to lead and make adjustments in an NFL offense early in his career. That's not Mariota's fault, it's just the reality of the system these guys come from. Winston was simply executing more advanced concepts at FSU. I also think Winston is safely the better overall talent and brings that "it" factor to a team -- his ability to galvanize an offense is clear, and he's a playmaker in crunch time.
Louis Riddikk (director of pro personnel): I like both of these guys, but I would pick Winston. There are definitely character concerns with him, but if we are confident in our ability as an organization, and particularly with our coaching staff, to create the kind of positive culture and environment a kid like Winston needs off the field so that he is freed up to rise to the top on the field, which we all believe he is capable of doing, then he's the pick.
There's no doubt he's ready mentally to play the position in the NFL and from a physical standpoint he's already begun to address the few negatives you can find in his game. Does he need to improve his delivery or his footwork at times? Sure. But find me a quarterback in the NFL whose delivery is perfect every single throw. It just doesn't happen, not even with the best ones. And he has shown you enough in his performance to think he'll be able to come in right away and execute an NFL offense at a high level without having to adapt things the way you would for Mariota.
Herm Edwards (head coach): When you draft a quarterback No. 1 overall, you know he's going to be the face of the franchise. That puts a burden on a lot of people, including the player, and this organization has gotten it wrong before with a quarterback who didn't do what he needed to do off the field. Of these two guys, Mariota is the much more proven product off the field.
But as the head coach, you have to be able to say, "Trust me, I can handle him on and off the field." In the end this league is about winning, and Winston is more NFL-ready. He has run a pro-style offense. He's a better fit. Mariota is a good athlete with great intangibles, and he should be able to improve. I have no issues there. But we've got to win. If we're developing our No. 1 overall pick, then we're developing him for the guys who have our jobs next.
Kiper: I agree with Coach here. Mariota could become really good, and I'd love the opportunity to be patient with him. I just don't know if we'll get it, because I don't think he's ready now, and we could be suffering in the meantime.
So while I'll absolutely concede that Winston has shown major maturity issues off the field, I'd still rather bet on Winston's willingness to grow up than Mariota's ability to effectively run an NFL offense early on.
Aaron Schatz (director of analytics): This is a decision in which the numbers and projections offer very little help. I can tell you this: There are no statistical red flags whatsoever on either of these guys. Some have pointed to Winston's 18 interceptions from his redshirt sophomore season in 2014 as an issue, but it can be explained in part because he played a very difficult schedule of defenses. Overall, FSU's schedule was light, but that was because most of its opponents were so bad on offense that it obscured the fact that they were really strong on defense. Also, even though he ran a slow 40 time, he doesn't have negative rushing yards in college, which is a positive sign for his mobility. College stats include lost yardage due to sacks, so positive rushing yardage is significant.
Most projection models are still likely to have Mariota come out slightly better, but both players project as good NFL quarterbacks from a college production standpoint. So when the numbers don't offer a definitive answer, you need to rely upon scouting. Analytics can't tell you whether Mariota can improve at pocket passing or if Winston will avoid trouble off the field.
Dominik: I realize that the general consensus is that Winston should go No. 1, but I personally don't see it that way. I think that we should take Mariota. As we're sitting here discussing this, we have identified things that we want to correct with both players. But I feel as though the things we want to improve or develop with Mariota are correctable, whereas the things we worry about with Winston are out of our control.
I have confidence in our staff to work with Mariota on taking snaps from under center, on controlling a huddle and the other things he needs to improve upon. He has great size, arm strength, a clean release, very good athleticism that can cover for some of his weaknesses earlier in his career, but most importantly, I think he is a smart, competitive and passionate guy. People say he's quiet, but I've yet to meet anybody who doesn't think he lives and breathes football. This is a quarterback I think we can trust to improve in the areas we need him to.
Winston brings all of the attributes you want in a QB on the field, including leadership. There isn't any doubt about his work ethic, either. We can take steps to build a support system around Winston, but ultimately I have no control over what he does on his own time, and he brings with him a track record of maturity and behavioral issues. I've seen firsthand the consequences to an organization when your quarterback makes poor decisions off the field.
Riddikk: I still think Winston is the better option, but I will say this about Mariota: I think he is further along at this point coming from a quote-unquote spread offense than Robert Griffin III was when he was at Baylor. His ability to play the quarterback position on third down might be more advanced than Griffin's is right now even after three seasons in the league.
Mariota still needs to grow in all facets of the game, but to put him in the box and say he's just a spread quarterback is inaccurate. What he was asked to do at Oregon doesn't limit him, it only makes him more dangerous. His ceiling is really high. Now, I don't think he'll play at as high a level as Winston will right away, but just give him time, surround him with the right people and he'll have a very, very good career.
Dominik: What ultimately puts it over the top for me for Mariota, and I realize I'm in the minority in preferring him over Winston, is that one of the most important parts of being a successful NFL quarterback is having the entire locker room see you put the time in. There's no question to me that Mariota will be the first one in, last one out. That's how important it is to him to be a great NFL quarterback. That makes me confident he can get better at the things we need him to, and makes him less of a risk than Winston. I'd take Mariota with the No. 1 overall pick.
