Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

Skooby

Alone In My Zone
Supporter
Joined
Sep 30, 2012
Messages
25,228
Reputation
10,282
Daps
59,799
Reppin
The Cosmos

Sizing up Emmanuel Mudiay

When Emmanuel Mudiay up and left to play pro ball in China this season, there was all sorts of speculation as to why he didn't play for coach Larry Brown at SMU. It doesn't matter now, as Mudiay's season in the Chinese Basketball Association is over and he's on his way back to the U.S. to get ready for the NBA draft.

Mudiay, who turns 19 on March 5, posted impressive numbers in China -- averaging 18.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 5.9 assists while shooting 48 percent from the field in 12 CBA games -- but his playing time was restricted by an ankle injury and midseason benching (former NBA player Will Bynum took over lead duties of his team, the Guangdong Southern Tigers, in mid-December, though Mudiay did play well in a couple of recent playoff appearances).

As a result of his shortened season, few scouts were able to get an in-depth read on his game and development. However, we spoke to several players in December who saw Mudiay up close in China, including teammates and opponents, to get their take on his skill set, strengths and weaknesses. (Note this was earlier in the season, prior to Mudiay's injury.)

No one spent more time with Mudiay this season than former Texas A&M-Corpus Christi big man Chris Daniels. The 30-year-old has spent much of his time bouncing around overseas and said he considers Mudiay a little brother, someone he helped adjust to professional basketball.

"He's a good kid with a very high ceiling," Daniels said earlier this season about the point guard prospect. "I can't wait to see who picks him. He's so coachable and is a hell of a kid. He doesn't have one bit of ego, and loves the game. He's got a high IQ."

Daniels said the most shocking aspect of Mudiay is his patience.

"I'd never heard of him before," Daniels said. "I looked at a couple clips and the adjustment he has made has been unbelievable coming from high school. He has the size and ability to go by his man at any time, but he's let the offense come to him. He's setting up everyone else. He's on a veteran team, and he's making sure everyone else is happy."

The major question mark with Mudiay's game revolves around his ability to make shots consistently from the perimeter -- and also run a team. Daniels, when we spoke with him earlier this season, wasn't concerned about Mudiay's ability to knock down shots from deep.

"It's gotten better because he works at it," Daniels said. "He takes 200 shots after every practice and his shot is coming along. It's much further along than when he first got here a couple months ago. It takes time for most guys to develop that part of their game. There just aren't many Ray Allens and J.J. Redikks. It's going to come because his work ethic is crazy. He's relentless."

There just aren't many guys like Mudiay -- even in the NBA. He's a 6-foot-5, strong, athletic point guard. That's why so many NBA guys are gushing about his long-term prospects.

Daniels came up with one comparison: Penny Hardaway.

"He's not as long and tall, but he's still long and is a streaky shooter like Penny was," Daniels said. "He can get to the basket, he'll get you dimes and he's a high-volume scorer -- and also a high-volume assist guy."

But the most important question for Daniels. Would he take Mudiay with the No. 1 overall pick?

"Yeah. I've got to go with my guy," Daniels said in December. "But I'm biased. He's so likable. If I had to pick a point guard, I'd definitely pick this guy 10 times out of 10 -- because of his talent, his work ethic and his ceiling."

Another former NBA player, 34-year-old Al Harrington, who spent more than 15 years in the NBA before heading to China this season, pointed to a variety of Mudiay's skills that will transfer well to the NBA.

"I like his size, explosiveness and the form on his jumper," Harrington said. "He's a really good passer. In China, the team he is on has really good domestic players. So that stops him from having to do too much. But he seems to be able to run a team at his age and he plays really hard -- which is good. I like him. He's definitely a pro."

Former NBA player Jeff Adrien actually saw a different comparison: Kyrie Irving.

"He has a good feel for the game," Adrien said. "He got anywhere on the floor. He plays hard and has a good touch. He seems like a pretty good shooter and handles the rock well."

Harrington also weighed in on what Mudiay needs to improve.

"He still needs to work on his entire game. He could do everything better at this point. His jumper, handles tighter, finishing at the rim. But a lot of his drives would be fouls in the league. In China they want to see blood to blow the whistle for import players. And his strength -- which he'll get. I like him."

Willie Warren, who played two seasons at the University of Oklahoma before being a second-round pick of the Los Angeles Clippers in 2010, pointed out something Mudiay is currently lacking.

"He has a lot of talent and upside, but I haven't yet seen the dog in him -- which is what I think will take him to the next level," Warren said. "I think he will be great, but he just needs to develop that killer instinct like [Russell] Westbrook and then the sky will be the limit."

Warren offered his take on Mudiay's draft stock: "I would definitely take him top five in the draft coming up based on his skill."

Several players cited Mudiay's athleticism and jumper as strong points.

"He's very athletic, and can shoot the ball as well," said Josh Harrellson, who played at Kentucky and three seasons in the NBA. "He's young and raw, but he will be very good with work. He can attack the basket with both hands, is better going right and can create his own shot and has a nice one- or two-dribble pull-up."

Harrellson saw a very high ceiling for Mudiay: "I think eventually he can be a star. The numbers aren't accurate over here, though. He was guarded by Chinese players the entire game and usually all the foreigners are. He's a lot more athletic than the guys he plays against. It's like LeBron versus Steve Nash. Ha ha."
 

Skooby

Alone In My Zone
Supporter
Joined
Sep 30, 2012
Messages
25,228
Reputation
10,282
Daps
59,799
Reppin
The Cosmos

Mudiay has major NBA potential

The most recent occasion college and NBA basketball fans saw Emmanuel Mudiay play was in April 2014, when he was competing for the World Team at the Nike Hoop Summit in Portland, Oregon. The anticipation then was that he would lead coach Larry Brown's SMU Mustangs back to the NCAA tournament this season as a freshman before heading to the NBA.

But last summer, the 6-foot-5 point guard decided to forgo college basketball, and he signed a professional contract with the Guangdong Tigers of the Chinese Basketball Association. The idea was to use his season in China to prepare for June's NBA draft. While a mild risk, it showed a lot of maturity for an 18-year-old.

Chinese professional basketball is quite an adjustment, even for a 10-year NBA veteran. The uniquely different culture, the distance from home, and the wacky nature of the CBA and its players, coaches, owners and rules are not easy to master.

The one-year plan, however, went awry when Mudiay injured his ankle in December, and he did not play in a game again until Sunday. With Guangdong trailing two games to none in its CBA semifinal playoff series with Beijing, Mudiay re-emerged and helped the Tigers to a 110-99 win, scoring 24 points and grabbing eight rebounds. His season ended with a 5-for-14 shooting performance and six turnovers in a loss on Tuesday.

Regardless of how little Mudiay played this season, he is still likely to be a high lottery pick. And even though he is now healthy enough to work out for NBA teams in the spring, he will remain an international man of mystery until he steps on an NBA court in a summer league in Las Vegas or Orlando.

I saw Mudiay play quite often when he was in high school in Texas, and I think I knew his game well before he left for China. How much he has improved or regressed remains to be seen upon his return to the United States.

We will break down his brief career in China in a future "Film Session." In the meantime, here is an initial breakdown of his game based on competition against many of the outstanding young stars who played at the Hoop Summit. Up to seven could make themselves available for June's draft.

Mudiay's greatest attribute is his size and body type for his NBA position. He is built to be able to attack the basket and is not afraid to throw his body at defenders on drives. If you couple that with above average open-court speed, you have a good idea why NBA teams are excited about him.

While the Hoop Summit was essentially a high school all-star game, both teams featured a number of players who will be in the NBA in the very near future. Watch this coast-to-coast drive by Mudiay past Arizona's Stanley Johnson and Duke's Jahlil Okafor and you get an idea of Mudiay's explosiveness:

Here, Mudiay hangs in the air and attacks 6-8, 240-pound Kansas Jayhawk Cliff Alexander with his body. As you can see, there is little doubt that once he catches the ball at midcourt, he is going hard to the basket to initiate contact.

While Mudiay can score, he also can use his size and speed to run the fast break and get his teammates involved in the offense. After this steal on Texas forward Myles Turner's drive, Mudiay nearly stumbles at midcourt, regains his balance, keeps his head up, and finds his teammate, Turkish forward Metecan Birsen, under the basket (Birsen eventually hits the short jumper):

If there are two areas where Mudiay can improve, in my opinion, they are his inconsistent jump shot and his tendency to be careless with his passing.

His jumper is a concern at the moment only because it is rare that a player can become an elite NBA point guard without keeping defenses honest with an accurate jump shot. More often than not, an average-to-below average shooter at the position will compromise his team's floor spacing.

Opponents will go under ball screens in the pick-and-roll while guarding him because they will not fear his 3-point shooting. Defenders will feel no need to help off great spot-up shooters to play his drives and can treat him as a nonshooter to help on good low-post players.

Mudiay's shooting technique when he left for China was what I would describe as "loose." Because his technique had flaws, the chances to repeat an accurate shot each time were low. Hopefully it's something that he has worked on.

On this pull-up jump shot in a screen-and-roll play, watch how he does not hold his follow-through with his shooting hand but rather pulls it back like a gun recoiling. He also lands with his shooting foot a good deal in front of his other foot, causing poor body balance on his landing:

These are correctable shooting mistakes with proper technique and perfect repetitions -- something he will receive the day he reports to his NBA team.

Not surprisingly, because of his size, Mudiay loves to post up smaller guards. This will be an added bonus for a creative NBA coach.

When I have watched Mudiay, he has had a tendency to not value the basketball and be sloppy with his decision-making. It's not surprising for young players to fall into these habits, but it is something that will be corrected with good coaching and maturity.

Here is a poor pass where he has tunnel vision and doesn't seem to see the traffic in the lane, and it leads to an easy steal and turnover:

One of the reasons Mudiay chose SMU was to play for Hall of Fame coach Larry Brown. He knew Brown's reputation for molding point guards even at the expense of irritating them at times. Mudiay seemed to embrace that opportunity "to play the right way," but it never came to fruition for him.

Despite his short time playing in China, the team that drafts Mudiay will get the opportunity to develop a 19-year-old point guard talent (his birthday is on Friday) the way Brown couldn't. Like most of the young players in this year's NBA draft, he has a lot to learn, but his starting point is greater than most.
 

Skooby

Alone In My Zone
Supporter
Joined
Sep 30, 2012
Messages
25,228
Reputation
10,282
Daps
59,799
Reppin
The Cosmos
Winston's INTs aren't a problem

Jameis Winston threw 18 interceptions in his final season at Florida State -- three more than any other Power 5 player, and tied for the second most in the nation.

For some draft analysts, Winston's interceptions are not a concern. Todd McShay, for instance, ranks Winston as the best on-field quarterback prospect not named Andrew Luck he has evaluated in the past decade. But for other analysts, Winston's turnovers are a red flag.

At least one influential figure in the NFL draft, Tampa Bay Buccaneers GM Jason Licht, expressed concern about Winston's inability to protect the football. In a recent interview with MMQB's Peter King, Licht noted, "Usually you find when a guy throws interceptions in college that doesn't go away in the pros."

Can we expect Winston to have an unusually high interception rate in the NFL?


College interceptions do not correlate with NFL interception rates


After analyzing every FBS quarterback selected in the first round of the NFL draft over the past 35 years, we found that there doesn't appear to be a strong correlation between college and NFL interception rates. When looking only at a player's final college season, the relationship is even weaker.

Look no further than Dan Marino and Matt Ryan, who were the only quarterbacks in this sample to throw more interceptions in their final college season than Winston. Once in the NFL, Marino cut his interception rate in half, and Ryan ranks among the top seven in the league in interception avoidance since 2008.



Most interceptions in final college season among first-round NFL draft picks
Player School INTs
Dan Marino Pittsburgh 23
Matt Ryan Boston College 19
Rex Grossman Florida 17
David Klingler Houston 17
Since 1980


On the flip side, seven of the 75 first-round picks analyzed threw five or fewer interceptions in their final college seasons -- Tim Tebow, Jim Druckenmiller, Alex Smith, Trent Dilfer, Donovan McNabb, Jim Kelly (injured for most of season) and Teddy Bridgewater -- and they have had varying NFL careers.

Though not a first-round pick, Geno Smith is the perfect example of why teams should not put too much stock in college interception rates. Smith set the FBS record for the lowest career interception rate when at West Virginia (a record that has since been broken by Marcus Mariota). Since entering the NFL, Smith has had the highest interception rate in the league.

The biggest difference for Smith between college and the NFL was the system and surrounding talent. At West Virginia, Smith threw more screen passes than any other quarterback in the country and had the luxury of playing with two of the best receivers in the nation in Tavon Austin andStedman Bailey. The offensive system, level of competition faced and surrounding talent must be accounted for when evaluating interceptions, and many of these factors had an impact on Winston's 2014 interception total.





Why Winston threw so many interceptions


1. Interceptions are random

Let's begin with the basic fact that interceptions at their very nature are random. Football analytics experts Brian Burke of advancednflstats.com and Chase Stuart of footballperspective.com have broken down the unpredictability of interceptions across seasons here and here.


To understand this concept, take a look at Winston's first-quarter interception against Virginia. Although Winston's pass was easily defended by safety Anthony Harris, the ball was batted into the air and into the arms of Virginia defender Eli Harris. That pass could have easily fallen to the ground or been caught by a Florida State offensive player.

Sometimes passes that should be intercepted are not and others that are good passes are miraculously picked off. In other words, interception totals are not the best measure of a quarterback's accuracy or a good predictor of future interception rates.

2. Not all interceptions are created equal

Throwing an interception on a Hail Mary at the end of the half is not the same as throwing one on a swing pass with two minutes remaining in a close game. Thirteen of Winston's 18 interceptions came in the first half, which meant Florida State still had a chance to bounce back -- something the Seminoles did better than any team in the country.

Also, because of the differing styles of play in college, many quarterbacks, such as Smith, are rarely asked to throw high-risk passes downfield and are often handed easy pre-snap reads. Fifteen of Winston's 18 interceptions came on passes of 10 yards or longer, and in a pro-style offense, he was asked to read defenses more than many spread quarterbacks.

3. Experience surrounding Winston

Florida State is one of the top recruiting schools in the nation, so there is no shortage of talent in Tallahassee. But Winston had to adjust to new receivers last season after Kelvin Benjamin and Kenny Shaw left for the NFL in the offseason. Nine of his 18 interceptions came when targeting first- or second-year players, and when watched on film, many could have been fought for harder by the inexperienced receivers.





Outlook
This is not a running list of excuses for Winston's interceptions. Many of his picks were a result of poor decisions and off-target passes. But when evaluating a player's college interceptions it is imperative to consider the offensive systems, surrounding talent and types of interceptions thrown. All of these factors came into play for Marino, Ryan and now Winston in their final college seasons and are major reasons why college and NFL interception rates are not highly correlated.

So, as Tampa Bay Bucs GM Jason Licht evaluates Winston as his potential franchise quarterback, he can rest easy knowing that there is no evidence to suggest that Winston's interception issues will necessarily follow him to the NFL.
 

Skooby

Alone In My Zone
Supporter
Joined
Sep 30, 2012
Messages
25,228
Reputation
10,282
Daps
59,799
Reppin
The Cosmos
Emmanuel Mudiay's run for No. 1

Duke freshman Jahlil Okafor is leading the conversation for national player of the year, carrying the Blue Devils to a possible No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. Kentucky freshman Karl-Anthony Towns is starting for the No. 1 team in the country, helping lead the Wildcats to a potentially undefeated season. Ohio State freshman D'Angelo Russell is slicing through defenses and garnering the rep as the next James Harden, making his case as the slickest, most dynamic scorer in the country.

All three of them are two weeks away from playing on the biggest basketball stage in the world: March Madness. Meanwhile, 8,000 miles away in China, Emmanuel Mudiay -- who before the season was slated to play for SMU -- is packing his bags, preparing for the long trip home to Dallas after spending the past five months playing pro basketball overseas.






Okafor, Towns and Russell are strolling along the tree-lined sidewalks of three of the best universities in the country. They're figuring out how to write papers, study for tests and how to balance the paradox of being celebrities and unpaid students.

Mudiay has been riding his bicycle to practice through the crowded streets of Guangdong, China, for the past five months. He doesn't speak the language. He lives with his mother. There are no classes, no Midnight Madness, no nightlife to speak of. He's making a ton of money but has nothing to really spend it on right now.

While Okafor, Towns and Russell are building their brands by starring weekly in front of millions on national TV, Mudiay, on most game nights since late November, has taken his position at the end of the bench, the highest-paid 18-year-old part-time cheerleader, part-time practice player in the world.

Okafor, Towns and Russell are being mentored by three Hall of Fame coaches with a long track record of getting their players drafted at the top of the lottery. Mudiay's head coach, Du Feng, is a former Chinese Olympian and pro basketball player who has never gotten anyone drafted.

One of these four top prospects in the NBA draft is not like the other -- for good and for bad.


Limited exposure

Since deciding in July to withdraw from his commitment to play for Hall of Fame coach Larry Brown at SMU and take a lucrative deal to play professionally in China, Mudiay has played a total of 12 basketball games (averaging 18 PPG, 6.3 RPG and 5.9 APG in 30 MPG) -- none of them in front of the decision-makers who will decide whom to draft at the top of the lottery in late June.

Before a surprise appearance in Games 3 and 4 of the Chinese Basketball Association playoffs on March 1 and 3, Mudiay hadn't played a minute in an official game of basketball since Nov. 23.

Three days after being resurrected off the bench, Mudiay's basketball career in China ended -- mostly sight unseen -- after a Guangdong overtime playoff loss on Tuesday.

Dozens of high-profile NBA general managers and scouts have canceled trips to China to see him play. Most were relegated to watching tape of the 10 games he played in China before hurting his ankle and ultimately being replaced on the roster by former Detroit Piston Will Bynum.

In a world of draft stock and hype, Mudiay is invisible.

Out of sight. Out of mind.

"If we had him right now, we'd be ranked one, two or three in the country," Larry Brown said in a phone interview with ESPN.com. "And along with Russell and Okafor, he'd be the biggest name in college basketball right now. He'd have a brand right now. I tried to tell the family, but he had other people in his ears, and, ultimately, I supported his decision. The kid just wanted to play basketball, but he had a family to support."

It wasn't supposed to be this way.

Prep star

One year ago, Mudiay was the hottest high school player in the country. The Congolese refugee was a McDonald's All American. He was a consensus top-five player, according to all of the major scouting services. In the 2014 Nike Hoop Summit, with NBA scouts and GMs sitting in the stands, he impressed with 20 points, three assists and three steals in a loss for the World Team.

After the Hoop Summit, numerous GMs and scouts told me Mudiay was a serious contender for the No. 1 pick in the 2015 NBA draft.

Here was my scouting report the day after I attended the Hoop Summit:


"If there was one standout prospect from the week, it was Mudiay. Both before and especially after the game, many of the NBA GMs and scouts I spoke with thought Mudiay had the best shot of anyone in this class of being the No. 1 pick and a future All-Star.

"NBA folks love point guards with both size [6-foot-5, 196 pounds] and athleticism, and Mudiay has both. He's a quick, powerful guard who can get to the basket and finish above the rim. He led all scorers at the Hoop Summit with 20 points and also had five rebounds, five assists and one steal, with just one turnover.

"He can overdribble the ball at times, his decision-making and feel for running the point is still a work in progress and his jumper needs a lot of work. But the raw talent to be a Derrick Rose-type power point guard in the NBA is there. The fact that Brown, one of the most respected point guard coaches in the NBA, is his head coach next year is also earning him points among scouts who believe that Brown will get the junk out of his game and make him a better NBA point guard for the NBA.

"If he has a big season for SMU, he has a great shot at going No. 1."

Mudiay debuted at No. 2 in our first 2015 NBA draft Top 100 the day after the 2014 NBA draft. A few weeks later, he shocked the college basketball world by telling coach Brown he'd decided to turn pro and play professional basketball overseas.

"I was excited about going to SMU and playing college basketball for Coach Brown and his staff and preparing for the NBA, but I was tired of seeing my mom struggle," Mudiay told SI.com at the time. "And after sitting down with Coach Brown and my family, we decided that the best way for me to provide for my mom was to forgo college and pursue professional basketball opportunities."

Mudiay would eventually receive an endorsement deal with Under Armour potentially worth as much as $10 million and a $1.2 million basketball contract to play with the Guangdong Tigers in China.

Other high school players had gone a similar route. Brandon Jennings dropped his commitment to Arizona to play in Rome. Jeremy Tyler skipped out on his senior year of high school and his freshman season of college at Louisville to play in Israel and later Japan.

But the experience didn't go well for either player. And neither player was in line to be a potential No. 1 pick in the draft before skipping college.

Decision backlash

Mudiay was immediately attacked by some for being either naive or selfish. Questions about his eligibility at SMU loomed. Some questioned his character and whether the move would hurt his draft stock.

Brown, who was burned by Mudiay more than anyone, scoffs at all of the criticism that came Mudiay's way.


"It wasn't his choice," Brown told ESPN.com. "When someone tells you you get a $10 million shoe deal and $1.2 million contract, I supported that. He didn't have anything. His family made that decision. There are no character issues at all with that kid. He had a chance to take care of his family and he took it. If you think the kid is a problem, then you don't know the kid at all."

Despite Mudiay's decision to skip college, he held firm at No. 2 on our Big Board through the rest of the summer and into the fall. The draft was devoid of top-level point guards or other elite prospects, with the exception of Okafor and Towns.

And there was precedent. Dante Exum, a young point guard from Australia, had just been drafted with the No. 5 pick in the loaded 2014 draft despite finishing his high school career in Australia in December and spending the rest of the year working out in a gym in Los Angeles in preparation for the draft.

If he could do it, so could Mudiay.
 

Skooby

Alone In My Zone
Supporter
Joined
Sep 30, 2012
Messages
25,228
Reputation
10,282
Daps
59,799
Reppin
The Cosmos
Overseas experiment

Mudiay's debut in China came on Nov. 1, the first game of the CBA season. Mudiay started and scored 18 points, grabbed five rebounds and handed out two assists. He shot just 5-for-16 from the field in the loss to Beijing, but the general feeling in China was that Mudiay was for real.

Mudiay exploded in his second game. He scored 29 points, grabbed nine rebounds and handed out seven assists coming off the bench for Guangdong (along with committing six turnovers). While defense isn't a big part of Chinese basketball (former South Florida star and Dallas Mavericksfirst-round pick Dominique Jones scored 44 points that night for the opposing team) hence the high stats, the result was nevertheless impressive.

"It's pretty tough for a high school guy to come over there and play," one high-level NBA scout who made the trip to China at the start of Mudiay's season told ESPN.com. "He's playing against talented guys every night who were either elite college players or borderline NBA players. They're all at least four years older than he is. What was clear from those early games was that his confidence level is high. He doesn't back down. When he makes mistakes, he played through it and never seemed to get rattled."

Our source was one of the few high-level NBA scouts to get to China in Mudiay's first 10 games. A large contingent of scouts had lined up a trip in early December to see Mudiay play, but his ankle injury suffered on Nov. 23 scuttled their plans.

What was clear from those early games was that his confidence level is high. He doesn't back down. When he makes mistakes, he played through it and never seemed to get rattled. -- NBA scout

Here's what that NBA scout saw when he was in China:

"I saw him in several practices and games just after the start of the season," the scout said. "I'm enamored with his athletic ability. He has incredible potential. He always plays in attack mode. He has terrific quickness and speed, both north to south and east to west. He plays with both gears, which is really impressive for a kid his age. He has things that just can't be taught. He plays hard, fast, reckless.

"His shot is OK. It's not broken," the scout continued. "He can hit shots from anywhere on the floor. It's more about shot selection. At times, he was forcing shots.

"Defense was a big part of his success early in China," he added. "He could defend anyone. There's not a lot of defense in China -- which is something that stands out. You tell him to do something, he does it. On side and high pick-and-rolls he's good at forcing his offensive player down. He can keep a player to the side of the court and keep them over there without them turning. Coaches will love him on the pick-and-roll. He pursues and his hands are active. My only real knock on him defensively is that, at times, he's trying to leak out because he's so offensive oriented."

But the scouting report had its fair share of flaws as well.

"I felt like he was looking to score too much," the same NBA scout said. "To be a NBA point guard, he has to become a better passer. In China, he's more of a shoot-first instead of a pass-first player. At times, I felt like he played out of control. He was forcing a lot of plays. Because of his strength and size he was able to score and have success because they don't play defense, but in the NBA, he's going to have to play smarter. You're going to have to live through his turnovers. You have to have a coach that's patient."

By late November, Guangdong's head coach was running out of it. Two sources close to the team told me that had Mudiay not injured his ankle, the team would've likely looked to find a veteran replacement anyway. While Mudiay was playing incredibly well for an 18-year-old and the team was an impressive 8-1 before Mudiay got injured, the coach wanted an NBA veteran with more experience. Bynum, or someone like him, was probably coming anyway.

By the time Mudiay had recovered fully from his ankle injury in mid-December, Bynum had taken over his minutes and Mudiay was relegated to spectator.

Bynum was good, by the way, but he wasn't much better than Mudiay. They posted similar numbers across the board in everything but 3-point shooting. Still, as Mudiay sat, and Okafor, Towns and especially Russell began to dominate at the collegiate level, his chances of being the No. 1 pick in the draft began to dwindle.

As teams pored over Mudiay's game film, most of them came away thinking it was inconclusive. I spoke with a number of other NBA scouts and GMs who are familiar with Mudiay's games on tape. Some wrung their hands over missed free throws, pedestrian 3-point shooting and turnovers. But most were concerned with something entirely different -- 10 games in China just isn't much to go on when deciding whether to take a player at the top of the draft.

"Those games really tell us nothing," a veteran international scout told ESPN.com. "There's not much defense played in China, if any at all. The real work comes from getting info on how he is working and handling the pro game."

Development

That background intel on Mudiay is coming back even more positive than his performances in China.

"Everyone there has been really positive about him," another NBA scout told ESPN.com. "I've spoken to his coach, to his teammates, to his opponents. They are all saying the right things about his professionalism and his work ethic. He doesn't complain. Even when he was healthy and wasn't getting any minutes, he was great. He fits in with everyone. He's polite. Gets along well with others. I don't think there's any question he's a great kid."

Said another scout who was put in charge of doing background checks on Mudiay: "His being away from home has helped mature him. It's hard to live in a foreign country as an 18-year-old. He's been a professional, and I think that has a lot to do with his background as a refugee. He's been through much harder things than playing pro ball in China. He's going to have a leg up on the college kids because it's a different life over there."

Added another scout about the mentoring Mudiay has received: "He's also been around a bunch of former NBA and D-League guys who are out of the league and want to be back in. He knows he has to work hard; he knows it's a gift to play there. Those vets are telling him what it takes to make it."

It just goes to show you how far the kid had developed. In November they weren't convinced he could carry them to the finals. In March they were asking him to save the season. -- NBA scout

Mudiay's development was never more evident than on Sunday, when he was activated before Game 3 in the playoffs. Guangdong was down 2-0 in the playoffs to Beijing. One more loss and the Tigers' season would be over.

A source close to the team told ESPN.com that several players approached management about activating Mudiay for Game 3. He had been playing so well in practice that the players thought he could give them a chance to stave off elimination. He had earned the right.

Mudiay, who hadn't played in more than three months, came off the bench on Sunday, scoring 17 points in the first half and ending with 24 points, 8 rebounds, 4 assists and just 2 turnovers. He shot 8-for-19 from the field and 2-for-4 from beyond the arc. Most importantly, Guangdong won the game, forcing a Game 4.

"It just goes to show you," one NBA scout told ESPN.com, "how far the kid had developed. In November they weren't convinced he could carry them to the finals. In March they were asking him to save the season."

Just two days after Mudiay's triumphant return on Sunday, his season was over. Mudiay posted 15 points, 8 assists, 7 rebounds and 4 turnovers while shooting 5-for-14 from the field in an overtime loss to Beijing. Guangdong's season was over. The Mudiay Chinese experiment was over. He's now free to return to the United States to begin preparing for the 2015 NBA draft.

Draft stock, outlook

Mudiay's career in the CBA won't define him, however. It's the NBA that matters. Teams are scrambling to know where he fits in the draft. Is he a real point guard or a combo guard? Just how good of an athlete is he? Can he shoot it well enough to keep defenses honest? Is he just a good prospect or an elite one?

Of the two dozen or so NBA scouts and executives I spoke with, all of them currently have Mudiay ranked somewhere between two and five on their internal team big boards. A small handful still believe he has a chance to be the No. 1 pick.

"The two guys with the biggest upsides in the draft are Mudiay and Towns," one NBA GM told ESPN. "Okafor and Russell are more sure things, but neither of those guys have the ceiling of Mudiay and Towns. And of those four, Mudiay is the best athlete. I can understand a team taking any of those four guys No. 1. But if you're asking me who has the chance to be a game-changer in the NBA, I think it's Mudiay. Big risk, big reward."

That's a minority opinion right now. But he's not the only one. Mudiay's biggest supporter is the coach he spurned in July.

Brown, the guy who has mentored Allen Iverson, Mark Jackson and Chauncey Billups, among others, thinks Mudiay is going to be "special."


"This league [the NBA] is all about point guards," Brown said. "Can you defend the pick-and-roll? Can you keep guys in front of you? Can you make people better? Can you score when necessary? He has all of that.

"He has unbelievable size and athleticism for a point guard," Brown continued. "You don't usually find guys that size that are point guards. Guys like [Russell] Westbrook, [John] Wall and Rose evolved into real point guards, but at first they were just great athletes. What separated him was he was already a great point guard. He has an unbelievable feel for the game."

And how does he compare to his main competition, D'Angelo Russell? Slightly more than half of the NBA scouts and execs I spoke with had Mudiay ranked ahead of Russell as the top guard prospect in the draft. It's basically 50/50 right now, but Brown doesn't see it that way at all.

"They aren't at all the same," Brown said. "Russell's a better shooter. He sees the floor, but he's not a point guard. He's just a basketball player. I don't think you want him bringing up the ball or initiating the offense. I don't know [if] he could guard the point. He hasn't had to guard point guards. Defense is such an underrated thing for these young guards. If you can't guard pick-and-rolls, it breaks everything. I used to tell Mudiay every day, 'You are going to have guard Russell Westbrook one night and then Derrick Rose the next night. It never stops.' I used to tease him about that. Point guard is the premier position in the NBA these days. You have to get it done on both ends of the floor."

That's the question that teams at the top of the draft, such as the Philadelphia 76ers, New York Knicks and Los Angeles Lakers -- all teams in desperate need of point guard help -- will be carefully studying the next four months. He'll do workouts, but it's unlikely, given his draft position, that he'll work out against anyone. Shooting jumpers and going through drills against chairs in empty gyms aren't going to tell anyone much of anything. None of the teams at the top of the draft can afford to make a mistake at this critical juncture in the rebuilding process. Will they risk taking a mystery man over a known commodity lighting up scoreboards on college basketball's biggest stage?

"I just wish he had gone to play with Larry [Brown] for the season," one NBA exec said. "I think he needed that. I think we needed to see that to be sure. I think he could have been the No. 1 pick had he played for Larry at SMU. Now, it's anyone's guess, and you know this league: We can be a bit risk-averse."

Brown says the NBA guys will get what they asked -- a Larry Brown-coached Mudiay -- just a little later than they thought.

"He's coming to hang out with me when his season is over," Brown said. "I'll get him ready. He's going to be special. Just wait and see."

Mudiay's push to be the No. 1 pick in the 2015 NBA draft might have only just begun.
 

Professor Polo

80s Baby
Joined
Jun 5, 2012
Messages
3,026
Reputation
445
Daps
5,552
Damn I had no idea this thread existed.... I need some articles for fantasy baseball... can anyone help?
 

Dominique Wilkins

Georgia Dawg
Supporter
Joined
Dec 5, 2014
Messages
1,188
Reputation
330
Daps
2,432
Reppin
ATLANTA

in.gif
The four No. 1 seeds -- next year
MARCH 9, 2015 10:16:59 AM PDT
By Jeff Goodman

As the speculation draws closer about who will join Kentucky as a No. 1 seed when the NCAA men's tournament bracket is unveiled Sunday evening, it’s never too early to start looking to the future -- and who will be fighting for top seeds in 2016.

It’s not quite so easy with the uncertainty of who is leaving for the NBA draft, and also because eight of the top dozen recruits still haven’t announced their intentions on where they will play.

However, here’s our best stab at who winds up getting the No. 1 seeds, and also who earns Nos. 2-4, a year from now.

No. 1s


Kentucky Wildcats

It doesn’t matter who stays and leaves anymore. John Calipari just flat-out reloads and has more talent than everyone else. Look for Willie Cauley-Stein and Karl-Anthony Towns to leave for the NBA draft. Devin Booker, Trey Lyles, Dakari Johnson and the Harrison twins all could join them. But my guess is that a couple of those guys (i.e., Johnson and Andrew and Aaron Harrison) will come back, and stay with Tyler Ulis, Alex Poythress and Marcus Lee.

Calipari has three guys signed for next season in skilled forward Skal Labissiere, point guard Isaiah Briscoe and wing Charles Matthews. And they are in the mix for several remaining uncommitted high-level guys who could be immediate difference-makers. UK as a No. 1 seed shouldn’t surprise anyone.



Virginia Cavaliers

Tony Bennett could well bring back everyone except for senior Darion Atkins, who was a key piece, but not one that can’t be replaced. There’s also a chance that junior wing Justin Andersonleaves for the NBA draft, but that’s up in the air after his broken finger and then an appendectomy in the second half of the season. If Anderson does return, the Cavaliers will have everyone of note back except for Atkins from a team that has lost just twice this season.

Malcolm Brogdon and Anthony Gill will be fifth-year seniors while Anderson, Mike Tobey and Evan Nolte will be true seniors. London Perrantes will be an upperclassman, and freshmenMarial Shayok, Devon Hall and Isaiah Wilkins all received experience this season. Virginia has been the cream of the crop the past two years, and it might stretch into a third season.



Kansas Jayhawks

Bill Self won his 11th consecutive Big 12 title this season, and he did it without getting a ton from his heralded freshman class. Kelly Oubre is likely a one-and-done, and Cliff Alexander also could be history after one ho-hum campaign. However, as long as Perry Ellis returns, which is a flip of the coin, the Jayhawks will be better next season.

Ellis and Jamari Traylor will be seniors; Wayne Selden Jr., Frank Mason and Brannen Greene will be juniors; and Devonte Graham and Sviatoslav Mykhailiuk have a year under their belts.Hunter Mickelson and Landen Lucas will provide depth up front. The Jayhawks also already have skilled forward Carlton Bragg coming in, but it will be interesting to see his impact, especially if Ellis returns. I would also expect Self and Co. to add another impact freshman or two. The top candidates are big men Stephen Zimmerman, Cheick Diallo and Ivan Rabb, or scorers Malik Newman, Jaylen Brown and Brandon Ingram.



Iowa State Cyclones

This one probably hinges as much on whether Fred Hoiberg sticks around as coach and doesn’t take an NBA gig as anything. The Cyclones will lose Bryce Dejean-Jones and Dustin Hogue, but will bring back their best player in Georges Niang, one of the nation’s top point guards in Monte Morris and athletic big man Jameel McKay.

Iowa State will also return shooter Naz Long and Abdel Nader and add Oregon State transfer Hallice Cooke and Marquette transfer Deonte Burton. Also, don’t be surprised if Hoiberg and his staff add a fifth-year transfer who is eligible immediately.

No. 2s



North Carolina Tar Heels

The Tar Heels don’t add much, but may not lose anything, either. Marcus Paige should be healthy and will be a senior, and coach Roy Williams should bring back all of his top big men inBrice Johnson, Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks and Joel James. J.P. Tokoto will be a senior, and guys like Justin Jackson, Theo Pinson and Joel Berry all have a year under their belts. I’m not sure this team can cut down the nets, but the Tar Heels should still be a top-10 team.



Duke Blue Devils

The Blue Devils will lose Jahlil Okafor and maybe Justise Winslow and Tyus Jones. My gut says that Jones will return, and then coach Mike Krzyzewski likely will go small with a bunch of quality wings on the team. He’ll bring back Matt Jones and Grayson Allen, and will add a talented, versatile freshman in Luke Kennard. Amile Jefferson will be a senior, but the key will be whether Marshall Plumlee and freshman Chase Jeter can hold it down up front. There’s also a chance that Duke adds uncommitted big man Caleb Swanigan, a strong, physical guy who could help right away.



Maryland Terrapins

The Terps will lose Dez Wells, but coach Mark Turgeon will likely have a returning core that includes Melo Trimble and Jake Layman. He’ll also have a quality big man in Robert Carter, who averaged 11.4 points and 8.4 rebounds a year ago at Georgia Tech. Dion Wiley and Jared Nickens likely will see expanded roles, and Michal Cekovsky should see a jump in performance into his sophomore campaign. The Big Ten won’t be overpowering, either, so the Terps have a chance to win the league.



LSU Tigers

This may depend on whether Jarell Martin and Jordan Mickey return, but neither is a lock to go in the first round of the draft. The Tigers will add the top-rated freshman in the country in Aussie Ben Simmons, so the front line could wind up being insane with Simmons, Martin and Mickey. The backcourt will also receive a jolt with the addition of scoring guard Antonio Blakeney, who will push Keith Hornsby. The key, however, will come at the point, where Josh Gray has been inconsistent this season after coming from the junior college ranks.
 

Dominique Wilkins

Georgia Dawg
Supporter
Joined
Dec 5, 2014
Messages
1,188
Reputation
330
Daps
2,432
Reppin
ATLANTA



No. 3s



Gonzaga Bulldogs

The ‘Zags will have a tough time replacing the senior backcourt of Kevin Pangos and Gary Bell Jr., but Josh Perkins and Silas Melson are talented and Eric McClellan is a veteran who has produced on the floor at Tulsa and Vandy. The frontcourt is as good as just about any with Przemek Karnowski, Domantas Sabonis and Kyle Wiltjer, and they also have veteran Kyle Dranginis back.



Syracuse Orange

I know, this one is somewhat surprising. However, Chris McCullough will return healthy and the ‘Cuse could have oft-injured DaJuan Coleman back as well. Trevor c00ney and Michael Gbinije will be seniors, and Kaleb Joseph should be better after an up-and-down freshman campaign. The Orange also bring back Tyler Roberson and add four top-100 recruits in wingMalachi Richardson, who has size and can really shoot it, combo guard Franklin Howard, big man Moustapha Diagne and shooter Tyler Lydon.



Villanova Wildcats

The Wildcats will lose JayVaughn Pinkston and Darrun Hilliard, but will have leader/point guard Ryan Arcidiacono back as well as Daniel Ochefu, Dylan Ennis, Josh Hart, Kris Jenkins andPhil Booth. ‘Nova will again be the class of the Big East. Coach Jay Wright also adds arguably the best point guard in the country in Jalen Brunson.



Wichita State Shockers

Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet are back, which means that the Shockers again will be the team to beat in the Missouri Valley. Coach Gregg Marshall will need to find a big man to replaceDarius Carter, but he does add Kansas transfer Connor Frankamp and also top-100 recruit Markis McDuffie.


No. 4s



Michigan Wolverines

This one hinges on whether Caris LeVert returns to Ann Arbor. After he suffered a broken bone in his foot, I’m going to take a stab that he comes back for his senior year. With LeVert andDerrick Walton Jr. healthy, and Zak Irvin and Spike Albrecht in the fold as veterans, coach John Beilein should have the Wolverines nationally relevant again. Big men Mark Donnal and Ricky Doyle should be much further along after a year of playing time.



Arizona Wildcats

The Wildcats will lose a ton -- likely their entire starting unit -- but coach Sean Miller still will have guys like Dusan Ristic, Gabe York, Elliott Pitts and Parker Jackson-Cartwright, and he also is bringing in a talented freshman class, led by scoring wing Allonzo Trier, Justin Simon and Ray Smith. Arizona may also add big man Ivan Rabb, will have BC transfer Ryan Anderson and scoring guard Kadeem Allen eligible. The ‘Cats will take a dip, but still can compete for the Pac-12 crown.



Texas A&M Aggies

The Aggies are a fringe tourney team this season, but will return Danuel House, Alex Caruso and Jalen Jones -- all of whom have been in college for at least three years. Coach Billy Kennedy also brings in a talented recruiting class that includes big men Tyler Davis and Elijah Thomas, along with wings D.J. Hogg and Admon Gilder. All four players are ranked in the top 75.



Louisville Cardinals

The Cardinals likely will lose Montrezl Harrell, but don’t be shocked if Rick Pitino gets Terry Rozier back. He’s a fringe first-rounder. They also will add talented wing Donovan Mitchell and have Quentin Snider returning. Then the key will be whether the Cards can find a big man to step up. Pitino can coach, so I think he’ll find a way to keep this team among the nation’s top 15 or so.
 

Skooby

Alone In My Zone
Supporter
Joined
Sep 30, 2012
Messages
25,228
Reputation
10,282
Daps
59,799
Reppin
The Cosmos
Top