Mixed early reviews on Winston
Quarterback Jameis Winston's decision to turn pro after two seasons at Florida State gives NFL teams much to consider in the 16 weeks before the 2015 draft.
Does Winston's off-field baggage create too much risk for teams selecting at the very top of the draft? Can those teams afford to pass on Winston given the alternatives? How will teams see him in relation to Oregon's Marcus Mariota? Is Winston the more pro-ready of the two, as some have suggested? Does that matter? How might Johnny Manziel's disappointing rookie season affect the way teams view Winston -- another player perceived to suffer from immaturity issues?
Conversations with NFL personnel evaluators and coaches provide early insights and strong opinions -- including some that go against convention.
Clear needs at the top of the draft
Four of the first six teams in the 2015 draft order have glaring needs for quarterbacks. A couple more teams picking among the top 10 also could use one.
A high-ranking personnel evaluator from a team with an established starting quarterback said he thought neither Winston nor Mariota was promising enough to be the top overall selection. He said they would project to the middle of the first round or even into the top of the second round in some other drafts, but he said teams could draft both much earlier in the absence of viable alternatives later in the draft.
"What it comes down to is whether these teams picking at the top have the guts to take the best player and call everyone else's bluff, hoping these guys come back to them in the second round," this evaluator said. "The reality is that there are two quarterbacks at the top, but no second group, so people are going to push these two up really high, knowing they have to bite the bullet if they want a quarterback."
In that case, Jacksonville and Oakland could be in decent shape among teams picking in the top five. Both drafted quarterbacks early in the 2014 draft and figure to enter the 2015 season with those guys penciled in as starters. The question becomes whether the teams holding the top two choices, Tampa Bay and Tennessee, could realistically pass on quarterbacks after struggling at the position. Both teams could face pressure to generate excitement for their fans following dispiriting 2-14 seasons.
"Talent-wise, Winston is worthy for sure," a general manager said. "It comes down to figuring out the issues and whether they will recur or whether he will evolve."
Seeing Leaf and Manziel in Winston
A veteran offensive coach said he saw the 2015 draft shaping up as 1998 all over again, with Mariota cast as Peyton Manning and Winston playing the role of Ryan Leaf. The implication wasn't that Mariota would necessarily become the next Manning, but rather that Mariota, like Manning, could be counted on to give his best effort and handle himself professionally. Winston? Not so much.
"Leaf checked out in terms of his ability to be a prototypical NFL passer except for one thing -- the baggage part," this coach said.
But Leaf didn't carry the same off-field question marks as Winston, whose perceived "baggage" includes a rape accusation against him (there were no charges), a conviction for shoplifting crab legs, an incident involving a pellet gun, an ejection from practice over attitude concerns and a one-game suspension for shouting a crude phrase in the Florida State student union. One GM acknowledged the concerns are obvious.
As is the case with Leaf, it's not accurate to say Manziel had off-field issues that are similar to Winston's, but the spectacle of his draft-stock debate last year gets his name brought into the Winston discussion among evaluators. The on-field differences are clear. Winston is much bigger and stronger than Manziel. Also unlike Manziel, he has played in an offensive system more similar to the ones NFL teams run. But with maturity issues overshadowing Manziel's disappointing rookie season in Cleveland and offensive coaches bailing from the Browns' staff, there's a real fear among some that Winston could be headed down a similar path.
"You either want to draft clones or you stay away from him," a veteran defensive coach said. "He is a Manziel clone in terms of maturity. Remember when Manziel went to Vegas? There is nothing wrong with going to Vegas. We all like going to Vegas. The problem is, he [screwed] it up even worse during the season, getting into fights and all that. Winston and Manziel are different players, but you will not change maturity overnight. You are looking into who is in Jameis' circle and how big of a change it's going to be with lots of money and lots of free time -- there is lots of free time in the NFL."
Pro-style offense a big advantage?
The offensive coach cited above said he thought Winston's experience in what is viewed as a pro-style offense would help his transition to the NFL. However, the coach said he thought this would not necessarily give Winston a big edge over Mariota, who is coming from a spread offense at Oregon.
"It is mostly a bunch of bull," this coach said. "What is interesting about Oregon is that they have most of the pro concepts in their pass offense. The easiest thing to teach is how to play football under center. The bottom line is, when Mariota gets the ball in his hands and drops from there, he has no problems. He is athletic and he is so in control of everything -- on the sideline, on the field, how he handles himself. Plus, he is every bit as tall as Winston."
Continuing in the on-field analysis, a GM who was keeping an open mind toward Winston said he wasn't concerned about the quarterback's spike in interceptions this season.
"You will always have people nitpick a guy," this GM said. "He had a lot more skill around him last year. This year, some of his better skill guys were young, so they did not evolve until later and they had to win. They had 80 [receiver Rashad Greene] and 35 [tight end Nick O'Leary] early and everyone knew he had to get the ball to them. It opened up later in the year when 4 [running back Dalvin Cook] came alive. Defenses had to play them more honest. As an evaluator, you are saying, 'That is life in the NFL.'"
One of the big concerns for more than one evaluator was the fact that Winston had off-field issues before and after winning the Heisman Trophy and national championship. There were unlearned lessons. How Winston handles himself through the remainder of the process, including in interviews and testing, is going to affirm fears or help to assuage them. It feels as though the burden of proof is on Winston unless the teams picking at the top of the draft are desperate enough to select him regardless.
Notes from around the league
• Big day in Tampa Bay: Coordinators can come and go, but they usually do not go right before the regular season begins. That happened to the Buccaneers in 2014 when health problems precipitated Jeff Tedford's sudden departure from the team. It was a tough situation on a team with a defensive-minded head coach and no NFL-tested offensive play-callers on staff.
Dirk Koetter's hiring as coordinator Thursday should solve organizational and administrative problems. Koetter spent all eight of his seasons as an NFL offensive coordinator working under defensive-minded head coaches. He was also a college head coach for three seasons at Boise State and six at Arizona State. Those are strong credentials for a coordinator.
Jacksonville ranked 12th in offensive expected points added (EPA) when Koetter was the Jaguars' coordinator from 2007-11. Atlanta ranked seventh with Koetter coordinating the Falcons' offense over the past three seasons. That is close to where those teams ranked the year before Koetter arrived.
It'll be interesting to see how Koetter fits with Buccaneers coach Lovie Smith. The Falcons dropped back to pass a league-high 61.6 percent of the time on early downs when Koetter was their coordinator. The Jaguars ranked 23rd at 50.4 percent when Koetter ran their offense. Defensive-minded head coaches sometimes prefer more conservative offenses rooted in the run game. Smith has expressed interest in fielding an up-tempo offense. He also previously hired Mike Martz as coordinator in Chicago.
• Numbers back Carroll's point: Seattle Seahawks coach Pete Carroll recently said his team's offense has been statistically more productive when center Max Unger was healthy enough to play. The numbers support what Carroll was saying. According to ESPN Stats & Information,Marshawn Lynch has averaged 5.1 yards per carry (2.8 before contact) on 110 rushes when Unger was on the field. Lynch has averaged 4.4 yards per carry (1.7 before contact) on 170 rushes when Unger was off the field. Unger's return for the Seahawks' divisional playoff game against Carolina comes as the Panthers are losing defensive tackle Star Lotulelei to a season-ending injury.
• Bears and NFL trend: The Chicago Bears have hired the NFL's youngest GM to upgrade the second-oldest roster in the league. Ryan Pace, 37, joins a growing list of GMs in their early 40s or younger. Ray Farmer, Jason Licht, Ryan Grigson, Scot McCloughan, Steve Keim, Doug Whaley, David Caldwell, Tom Telesco, Les Snead and John Schneider are among those fitting into that category.
