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[Skooby]

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Okafor is clear top pick

ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton return to provide the kind of discussions that are happening in front offices around the NBA -- where scouts and statistical experts are breaking down NBA draft prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers."

Question: Should Jahlil Okafor be the No. 1 overall pick?

Kevin Pelton: Chad, we're halfway through the college season, and Jahlil Okafor remains atop your draft board. It's hard to say he's done anything to dissuade that opinion. Okafor has been dominant offensively for a team that was undefeated against a challenging schedule until an unexpected two-game losing streak. He's not currently at the top of my rankings of projected WARP (he's sixth, in fact), but there's actually a good explanation for that. The system doesn't believe anyone can be as good at finishing as Okafor has been.

As of now, Okafor's 2-point percentage would be the second-best by a major-conference player to average at least 15 points per game in College Basketball Reference's database (back to 1997-98), trailing only Villanova's Michael Bradley in 2000-01 (.727). And Bradley did that as a fourth-year transfer. If we narrow the list to freshmen, Okafor is No. 1 by a huge margin over Arizona State's Ike Diogu (.625 in 2002-03). As the season goes on, Okafor's 2-point percentage won't be regressed as heavily to the mean, and he should continue to climb up the rankings.

As a result, I'd take him No. 1 overall at this point. Safe to assume you agree?

Chad Ford: The Big Board is a reflection of the consensus of two dozen or so NBA scouts and GMs that I speak with. He's been No. 1 on our Big Board since we released the 1.0 in July.

Nothing has changed. If anything, he's strengthened the hold on No. 1. Of the dozen or so GMs and scouts I spoke with this past weekend, all of them had Okafor No. 1 on their board. In this day and age, it's hard to live up to the hype. Fans were deeply disappointed in Andrew Wiggins last season, Nerlens Noel (our No. 1 prospect in 2013), and, believe it or not, Anthony Davis in 2012. All of them screamed OVERRATED to me all season.

Okafor, however, has really lived up to the hype as one of the most polished low post prospects we've seen come into college ball as a freshman. He has incredible hands, excellent footwork in the paint and a soft touch. You just don't find guys like that every day. Maybe once a decade. Clearly, the numbers are supporting that.

Oh, and by the way, I love that WARP has some cynicism programmed into it. Reminds me of TARS, the robot in "Interstellar," and every single NBA scout not named Tony Ronzone that I know.


Question: How does Okafor compare to recent No. 1 picks?

Pelton: In the past decade, the average No. 1 pick has been projected for an average of 3.1 WARP during his rookie contract. Okafor's current projection (2.6 WARP) is a little on the low side of that group, though I think there's a chance he ends up nearly there when it's all said and done. Here's how that compares graphically to the past five No. 1 picks. Okafor would also rank in the middle of this group -- behind Davis and Kyrie Irving, but ahead of Anthony Bennett, John Wall and Wiggins.

Subjectively, where would you put him among those players?

Ford: Of those five players, only one of them, Davis, was unanimously considered by scouts and GMs to be a franchise-type player by NBA scouts. I think Okafor's lack of elite athleticism will keep his ceiling lower than Davis -- especially on the defensive end. Wiggins had the lowest WARP projection of any of the prospects, but I think he was the next guy scouts really thought could be a superstar because of his unique athletic abilities at his size. So far, his NBA performance, especially over the last month, as we noted in our last Ford-Pelton, is pointing in that direction. Wiggins' potential is unlimited.

On the other side, I think that Okafor is clearly more of a no-brainer than Irving or Bennett were coming into the draft. Irving, if you remember, had played just nine games for Duke that season because of injury and became the No. 1 pick by default. Bennett's draft class was historically weak and there wasn't a consensus player after Noel went down with an ACL injury. I think both were perceived at the time to be weak No. 1 picks. Irving has clearly proved worthy of being drafted No. 1. Bennett, not so much.

To me, the question is between Okafor and Wall for third place. Wall got off to a slow start in the NBA, primarily because of injuries, and I think people forget what an elite prospect scouts thought he was. Many of them believed he would have a better career than Derrick Rose (and he might, thanks to a slew of knee injuries for Rose). But I think Okafor's size and the fact that there is a dearth of big men who can really score in the paint give him the nod.

So I'd rank him third behind Davis and Wiggins.


Question: How does Okafor compare to recent top post prospects?

Pelton: To go deeper on Okafor's strengths and weaknesses, we can compare him to a different group of peers -- elite big men in the past five years. According to College Basketball-Reference, Okafor is the sixth major-conference freshman big man to average at least .2 Win Shares per game since 1998-99. Here are advanced stats for the group.

Top Freshman Post Prospects

Player
Year School 2P% OR% DR% Blk% Usg

Chris Bosh 2003 Georgia Tech .576 .108 .208 .067 .224
Greg Oden 2007 Ohio State .616 .148 .261 .153 .264
Kevin Love 2008 UCLA .611 .170 .312 .050 .269
Jared Sullinger 2011 Ohio State .550 .156 .288 .020 .270
Anthony Davis 2012 Kentucky .653 .118 .245 .137 .188
Jahlil Okafor 2015 Duke .684 .172 .216 .056 .283

As expected, Okafor is the best offensive player of the group. His ultra-high percentage finishing has come on the highest usage rate of these players -- check out Fran Fraschilla's film breakdown for more on how Okafor's post game makes that possible -- and is also tops in offensive rebound rate. Naturally, Okafor lags defensively, where he's near the bottom in defensive rebounding and shot blocking. When you put together those strengths and weaknesses, where does Okafor rate?

Ford: That's really great company, though I'm not sure he's a direct comp to any of those players. A taller Jared Sullinger might make the most sense, given his body type and limited athleticism. That's not faint praise. If Sullinger was 6-11 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan and didn't come into the draft with a bad back, he would have been the No. 1 pick.

Overall, I think his game reminds me a lot of Al Jefferson. The fact that he's bigger than Al and a little more athletic again makes him an even better prospect. There are very few bigs in the league who can really punish teams offensively in the paint. Okafor is so skilled, he brings a completely different dimension to the table. From an offensive skills standpoint, he reminds me a lot of Tim Duncan. He doesn't have Duncan's athleticism and isn't the rebounder that Duncan was ... but the "Big Fundamental" wouldn't be a bad nickname for him. I don't think he'll be Duncan, because of his deficiencies in rebounding and defense, but offensively, he's going to score a lot of buckets in the NBA.

Pelton: I agree with the Jefferson comp, though it probably is worth noting that Jefferson has never been a high-percentage shooter like Okafor in college. The best 2-point percentage of his career was 53.3 percent as a rookie, fresh out of high school. Okafor's Duke performance translates to 58.7 percent shooting in the NBA, so while that might come down the remainder of the season he's far ahead of Okafor.


Question: Every week we ask each of you to identify a potential draft sleeper for us. Who has caught your attention this week?

Pelton: James Blackmon Jr., G, Indiana.

My projections don't really have Blackmon a lot higher than your board, Chad, but I'm intrigued by his high-volume 3-point shooting (he's attempting nearly six triples per game and making them at a 40 percent clip). I see a resemblance to Randy Foye, another undersized perimeter threat who found a role in the NBA by settling in at shooting guard after teams initially tried to make him a point guard. That's worth a second-round pick, right?

Ford: Yeah, he's No. 44 on our Board. He's a great shooter who is unafraid to let it fly. He just lacks great size for his position (he's 6-3 in shoes), and isn't a great athlete. So he's a role player in the league. I like the Foye comp, though I think Foye was a better athlete coming into the NBA. Maybe Jimmer Fredette?

My prospect this week: Demetrius Jackson, PG, So., Notre Dame.

I wrote about Jackson in my latest Stock Watch but wanted to hear your take on him. He doesn't have great size (though a very solid 6-foot-5 wingspan for a point guard) but I love everything else about his game. He can shoot it, pass it, defend. He has an NBA body and athleticism. His assist numbers are low because he shares ballhandling duties with Jerian Grant, but he was a point guard in high school and will be their lead point next season at Notre Dame when Grant leaves for the NBA. I've had some scouts compare him favorably to a young Eric Bledsoe.

Scouts are really struggling to come up with great point guard prospects after Emmanuel Mudiay and D'Angelo Russell. I know you like Tyus Jones. What do you think of Jackson?

Pelton: Jackson has to be one of the most improved players in the country. If we looked only at this season, he'd be solidly in the top 20 of my projections. Including his freshman season drags his projection down to the second-round level. There are good reasons for that. Jackson's unlikely to keep making 60-plus percent of his 2s, as he has so far. But the combination of 40 percent 3-point shooting and a high steal rate is a good one for future NBA success.

 

[Skooby]

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Atlanta cleans up in Gattis trade
In dealing a trio of prospects for Evan Gattis, I really don't understand what the Astros are doing. The prospect depth they have in their system could allow them to acquire a player of a much higher caliber than Gattis, preferably a younger one as well, someone who's going to contribute to the next good Astros team in a few years. Atlanta, meanwhile, has gone from a bottom-five system in baseball to likely a top-10 system, overhauling its major league roster while adding a broad mix of near- and long-term talent to its farm, in this case trading a player somewhere near the apex of his value for a very strong return.

Gattis is already 28 years old, coming back to pro ball late after several years of off-field problems, and he brings four years of control. In two not-quite-full major league seasons, he's shown big power, poor defense, horrible on-base skills and huge platoon splits -- killing lefties but posting a .241/.297/.469 line against right-handers with enormous problems against right-handed breaking stuff. While Houston is a good ballpark for dead-pull right-handed power hitters, he's virtually positionless and doesn't address the Astros' major needs for hitters who get on base or at least make more contact. He also has disappeared in the second half in both of his years in the majors -- whether due to physical wear and tear or inability to make in-season adjustments -- and his body isn't durable. He's probably a bench guy, or a platoon player, but not a full-time solution at any position. The Astros also picked up James Hoyt, a hard-throwing (93-97 mph) right-hander that Atlanta signed from an independent league for $500 after the 2012 season, a good bet to provide some value in middle relief right away.

In exchange for Gattis, Atlanta gets three prospects with question marks, but all of whom are legitimate major league prospects with real asset value today. Mike Foltynewicz is the big get, and I would have traded Gattis for him alone. Folty is a high-beta prospect with the upside of a potential No. 1 starter if he can develop a more consistent arm slot and find an average third pitch to go along with an 80 fastball and 70 curveball. He drops down on the fastball at times and comes back up to get depth on the curveball, a trick that major league hitters will exploit. His changeup will show plus, and ditching his slider (which he did early in 2014) may help him spend more time working on the change, but the change isn't good enough now to keep lefties from sitting on his four-seamer. Drafted in the first round in 2010, he's never seen the DL, and has the size and frame to be a durable 200-inning starter. His floor is a Nate Eovaldi type, and he'd be a wipeout reliever, but Atlanta has to develop him as a starter and hope the changeup comes along to the point where he can lead their rotation in 2017.

Third baseman Rio Ruiz has developed nicely as a hitter, showing outstanding patience -- his walk rate put him among the top 10 percent of minor league hitters this year, even though he was just 20 in a high-A league. Lancaster is a tremendous place to hit, however, and his power output was a little light given his home environment. He has good natural feel to hit and much of his contact is hard, but his load is getting too deep with his weight too much on his back side, interfering with his timing and reducing his ability to drive the ball out. At third base, he has the hands and arm, but he lacks rhythm in his feet and the ball tends to play him unless he's coming in on it; he has a chance to play at third, although it's at least 50-50 that he moves to first. Unlike a lot of young left-handed hitters, he has no real problem facing lefties. He projects as something similar to what Matt Carpenter has become for the Cardinals -- a high-OBP doubles hitter, a little less glove, a little more pop -- if he can stay at the hot corner.

Andrew Thurman was a command right-hander when the Astros took him out of UC Irvine in the second round in 2013, then started hitting 95-96 in spring training last year, only to head to the cold weather of the Midwest League and struggle with his control. He'll pitch with a 55 fastball and shows three potentially average or better secondary pitches, but nothing is plus and he has to throw strikes to succeed. I still like him as a potential fourth or fifth starter, but that assumes he can harness his newfound velocity and stop walking guys. Of the three players Atlanta got back in this trade, he has the lowest ceiling and the lowest probability, the latter due to his difficulty against low-A hitters last season.

There's a good chance Atlanta walks out of this deal with an above-average starting pitcher and an everyday third baseman, which would be a heck of a return for a flawed player such as Gattis. The Astros get four years of control of Gattis, and if they choose to use him behind the plate on occasion, the acquisition might free them up to trade one of their many catchers ... but is this the kind of player the Astros should be trying to acquire right now? They're not contenders this year, probably not in 2016, and by 2017 Gattis will be turning 31 and past peak, which we've probably already seen. I have no objection to the Astros trading from their passel of prospects to add real major league talent, but they should be aiming higher than an OBP sinkhole who doesn't add value on defense. Foltynewicz is well-regarded throughout the industry, and I think he could have headlined a package for a much better player, now or during the 2014 season.

 

[954UAlreadyknow]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...d=InsiderTwitter_goodman_playersvsplayerCurry

 

[Dominique Wilkins]

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There always have been questions regarding Stephen Curry. Is he athletic enough? Can he play the point? Can he guard anyone?

It's why he didn't have a single ACC scholarship offer coming out of high school, and why he wound up going to Davidson. It's also why guys like Hasheem Thabeet, Tyreke Evans, Ricky Rubio and Jonny Flynn were all taken before him in the 2009 NBA Draft.

Now in his sixth season, the questions have turned into answers as Curry has turned into arguably the top point guard in the NBA. He and LeBron James are the only players in the NBA to rank in the Top 10 in both scoring and assists.

When I saw Curry in college, he was arguably the best long-distance shooter in the country, and he managed to shoot a high percentage (41 percent in his three collegiate seasons) despite being double-teamed for most of his career.

He's concluded each NBA season making at least 42 percent of his attempts from deep.

So we reached out to a trio of NBA point guards to go "Players vs. Player" with Curry, and asked how to guard Curry, what are his strengths and weaknesses and how would you attack him?




We began with maybe the most difficult question of all because his long-range shot has been the one area that has never been in doubt.

1. How do you stop him at the 3-point line?

Michael Carter-Williams: "You have to stay attached to him when he comes off screens. You can't let him get into a rhythm. My length helps because I can have a high contest."

Jrue Holiday: "You can't really stop him. Obviously, you slow him down. He likes 3's a lot so you try and run him off the line. You either just got to play it right or have him make a mistake."

Derrick Rose: "You can't. You just have to contest, That's the God's honest truth. He's got a God gift with his touch."



Curry was deadly in just about every facet in college, but there were some skeptics who weren't sure about his court vision. I remember watching him down at LeBron Camp in Akron playing against the pros, and that's when I was sold that he would be a high-level point guard in the NBA because of his ability to excel in the pick and roll. Combine his shooting ability with his court vision and passing, and it was a no-brainer.

2. How do you contain him in pick and roll?

Carter-Williams: "With our team, we force him to one side. I always go over screens. Obviously, you'd never go under. Otherwise, it's like a layup for him. He's also got the ideal team for his skill set. He's got other guys that knock down shots, and guys that roll to the basket and get layups."

Holiday: "You need help from the big, a big that's mobile and that can move because obviously his handle is pretty tight and he can pretty much go around most of the bigs in this league. Double-team him and corral him. If you're not close enough in corralling him, he's probably going to just pull up and shoot. And he can make it with his eyes closed."

Rose: "Double-team. That's it. Double-team and make sure he sees bodies."


In college, Curry was a marked man who often went up against teams that were far more talented -- especially in the NCAA tournament. In the NBA, he's got a bunch of weapons around him. Obviously, he's the guy opposing teams start with when they scout Golden State. But there's more to the Warriors than just Curry, and that's why he is dangerous even when the ball isn't in his hands.

3. What's another important facet in trying to keep him under control?

Carter-Williams: "Finding him in transition. You have to locate him. When he gets over halfcourt, he'll kill you if you don't find him."

Holiday: "Make it known that you're there. That you're present. You're kind of physical with him. That he knows you're always there. Most of the time, especially when he gets going, it's just him and the basket. No one else is on the court. He doesn't see anybody. It's literally like he's working out. It's him, the shooting coach and the rim. It's automatic.

Rose: "He's a good passer. I think you've got to play good team defense."



The major issue NBA folks had with Curry coming out of college had to do with whether he could guard anyone. He's slight (6-foot-3 and 190 pounds), and not explosive athletically. That's where many thought he would be taken advantage of, and while it happened early in his career, Curry has improved significantly on this end of the floor. He's got a high IQ and quick hands, which helps explain why he leads the NBA in steals.

4. What do you try and exploit with him on the defensive end?

Carter-Williams: "I try to use my length, get by him and finish over the top of him. That's another way to try and throw him off his game. Make him work hard on the defensive end. Try and see if you can affect his offense with his defense."

Holiday: Try and be aggressive the same way he's aggressive. Obviously, he's a very good offensive player. If there's any way you can try and go back at him, it's on the defensive end. Try and attack him, get to the basket area and make a play that way."

Rose: "Go back. Go back at him. Make sure he's not resting on the defensive end and conserving energy while he's in the game."



It's not easy to find a glaring weakness with Curry these days. He does just about everything at a high level on the offensive end of the floor, and he's made strides on defense.

5. What's his weakness right now?

Carter-Williams: "Right now you can make the argument that he's number one. People questioned his dribbling, but it's underrated. He's able to finish at the rim, and can make floaters -- and is one of the toughest, if not the toughest."

Holiday: "Defense. Relative to everything else."

Rose: "It's all relative. That's what everyone says when you have a player like that. Nobody plays great, great individual defense. It's more like a team defense. You can pick on him and say defense, but that's bull."



I think Curry has a similar makeup to that of Kevin Durant. Both are laid-back off the court, but ultra-competitive on the court. Neither talks a ton, but leads more by example. Both have always yearned to take the big shot and aren't afraid of the moment.

6. What about his mental makeup?

Carter-Williams: "He's so level-headed and doesn't get frustrated. He doesn't show a lot of emotion. If I was him and make some of the shots he makes, and puts up the numbers he puts up, I'd be going crazy. But that's not him. He shows emotion from time to time, but it's not often."

Holiday: "I think he shows a lot of emotion -- especially when he knocks down 3's or makes a nice pass. He shows it pretty well. Not over the top. Gets him going, gets his team going, gets the crowd into it."

Rose: "He's not a rah-rah guy. It's all about hooping with him. He just wants to win the game and you can tell he cares about his teammates. They have a real close team and you can tell."



Many NBA executives didn't think Curry would be more than just another guy in the league due to his somewhat average athleticism. However, he's got sneaky athleticism -- and uses angles extremely well.

7. How much does his athleticism hurt him?

Carter-Williams: "Even though he's not super-athletic, he's quick and that makes up for him not being as explosive as some of the other point guards."

Holiday: "He doesn't need to be because he knows how to play. There are plenty of [NBA players] who aren't athletic or are coming to the end of their career. Chauncey Billups was the hardest player I had to guard in 2009-10. It's tough to guard him and It wasn't like he was jumping higher than me, or faster than me. He was a smart player. It would be awesome to have athleticism, too. Not saying Steph's not athletic. He has basketball IQ."

Rose: "He's not the most athletic person on the floor, but that's what makes the game so unique. You don't have to be athletic, you see guys that get older in this league who find ways to still be effective. If anything, I think the way he's playing now is only going to help him for the long term."



Chris Paul, a healthy Rose. Now maybe John Wall, Kyle Lowry and Damian Lillard. There are so many quality point guards in the NBA right now. Few would have predicted that Stephen Curry might lead that list.

8. Where do you rank him among the top point guards?

Carter-Williams: "I'd put him No. 1 with what he's doing for his team. They have the best record in the NBA, and he does everything -- he scores, he passes. He has such an effect on his team."

Holiday: "It's tough. For sure, he's at the top of the list."

Rose: "He's up there. He's got the best record. You've got to put him up there at one."

 

[Poitier]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_ford_stockwatchRussell

@Skooby @Dominique Wilkins @TheGreatShowtime

 

[Lucky_Lefty]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_ford_stockwatchRussell

@Skooby @Dominique Wilkins @TheGreatShowtime

Conference play can be incredibly rough on draft prospects, especially young ones. It's one thing to skate through a slate of low- to mid-major programs in November and December. It's another to hit conference play against high-major teams and suddenly play against defenses that have heavily scouted you and know how to take away your strengths.

So when a player shines or falters this time of year, it's worth noting.

Here's a look at five players in our updated Top 100 who NBA scouts and GMs are talking about this week:

D'Angelo Russell, G, Fr., Ohio State
The first four picks have remained remarkably consistent all season. Jahlil Okafor,Emmanuel Mudiay, Karl-Anthony Towns and Kristaps Porzingis have been ranked 1-4, in that order, since our first Big Board debuted in July. UCLA's Kevon Looneytook over the fifth spot in November and there hasn't been a serious challenger to that top 5 until now, but more and more GMs and scouts are saying Russell is the prospect with the best chance of cracking the top 5.

Why is Russell such an interesting prospect? Scouts believe he has the tools to excel at both the 1 and the 2 in the NBA. He is a smooth scorer who can score both inside and outside and he's a got the handle and court vision to be a terrific playmaker in the NBA someday.

Projecting him as a point guard makes him especially interesting to scouts who are looking for alternatives to Mudiay, as they believe Mudiay will be gone in the first three picks.

"There's so much to love about his game," one GM told ESPN.com about Russell. "Even when he has a bad game, it looks like a good one because every time the ball leaves his lands, it looks like it's going in. He plays with such great confidence and has a terrific feel. I think he could be a James Harden-type player at the next level. That's what kind of scorer and playmaker he could be."

Said another GM: "We thought for a while we would have a great chance of landing him in the late lottery. But we've given up. He's too good. After Okafor, Mudiay and Towns are all off the board, I think he'll be heavily in the conversation."

We've moved Russell to No. 6 on our Top 100, and there's still room to climb.

Justise Winslow, F, Fr., Duke
There is a scrum of four wings -- Winslow, Kelly Oubre Jr., Stanley Johnson andMario Hezonja -- that should go somewhere between six and 12 on draft night. Scouts have been heavily debating who is the best prospect of the four. For the first two months of the season, Winslow was winning that debate. Blessed with elite athleticism, an NBA body and a ton of intangibles that drew comparisons to a young Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, Winslow looked like the odds-on favorite to be the first wing to hear his name called on draft night, and he sat for two months as the No. 6-ranked player on our Big Board.

Things have changed. Winslow has been struggling in conference play. After a strong performance in a rout against Boston College and a solid 20-point effort (on 7-for-16 shooting) versus Wake Forest, Winslow's in a horrific shooting slump during his last four games, which came against North Carolina State, Miami, Louisville and Pittsburgh. In those games he's shooting 7-for-29 from the field, 3-for-14 from beyond the arc and 5-for-14 from the free throw line while averaging just above five points.

But that short-term shooting slump isn't really the reason he's starting to slide. Winslow's shooting struggles aren't anything new. Scouts have been watching him closely all season. While his field goal percentage at the rim has hovered around 65 percent, and his 3-point shooting has been bouncing back and forth between 30 and 40 percent, his 2-point jumper percentage has been abysmal. He's shooting 12.5 percent on 2-point jumpers this season. There's no one else on our Big Board who comes close to shooting that poorly from there this season. (Willie Cauley-Stein is the next guy on the board, and he's more than doubled Winslow's shooting percentage on 2-point jumpers.)

And while scouts have expected his numbers to pick up, assuming it was some sort of statistical anomaly, his midrange game appears to have flat-lined, and Winslow is making that shot less and less a part of his arsenal. He now takes just 19.6 percent of his shots as 2-point jumpers -- the fewest among any wings in our Top 30.

 

[Lucky_Lefty]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_ford_stockwatchRussell

@Skooby @Dominique Wilkins @TheGreatShowtime

Comparing Winslow to Kidd-Gilchrist shows just how badly Winslow is shooting this season. No one thought Kidd-Gilchrist could shoot coming out of the draft. However, MKG shot 35.6 percent on 2-point jumpers his freshman year, 70 percent at the rim and 25.5 percent from 3. While Winslow has proved to be a better 3-point shooter than Kidd-Gilchrist, he's dramatically worse when taking 2-point field goals. The closest "prospect" I could find to Winslow was Kentucky'sAndrew Harrison, who is shooting 16.7 percent on 2-point jumpers. Harrison has fallen out of our top 60.

Those challenges could end up putting him behind Johnson (52.7 percent at the rim, 40 percent on 2-point jumpers and 40.4 percent from 3), Oubre (63.3 percent at the rim, 36.8 percent on 2-point jumpers, 42.2 percent from 3) and Hezonja (55.2 percent from 2, 44.4 percent from 3 in Euroleague) on draft night. Accordingly, he's dropped several spots on our Top 10


Caris LeVert, G/F, Jr., Michigan
Michigan announced that LeVert will miss the rest of the season with a stress fracture in his foot. He's expected to be out 12 weeks, which should mean he'll be healthy enough to participate in NBA draft workouts, should he choose to declare.

The question is, will he declare? Some NBA scouts and teams had him ranked as high as the late lottery earlier in the season. By the time of his injury, LeVert was No. 29.

AP Photo/Michael ConroyCaris LeVert will miss the rest of the season, raising questions about his draft status for 2015.


He had an up-and-down season. Some of that is on Michigan. He was asked to lead a weak supporting class. Some of that was on LeVert. As talented as he is, he didn't seem to thrive as the primary option on the team. In short, after becoming one of the most improved players in the country last year, he didn't take the leap scouts expected this season. His chances of being a lottery pick in the 2015 draft look pretty slim.

However, if he's content to fall somewhere between 25-35, there will be a lot of interest. LeVert is an NBA talent -- a wing who can see the floor and shoot the ball. Assuming he's healthy enough to compete in pre-draft workouts, he still should land somewhere in the late first to early second round. There just aren't many guards in the draft with his skill set.





Jake Layman, F, Jr., and Melo Trimble, G, Fr., Maryland

Scouts have been flocking to see Maryland the last month to get a look at these two. Both have played well enough this season to move into the conversation as potential first-round picks.

Layman has been especially interesting for teams looking for an athletic small forward who can finish at the rim and shoot the 3. Layman has been great wherever he shoots the ball -- he's hitting 71.4 percent of his shots at the rim, 44 percent of his 2-point jumpers and 39 percent of his 3s. Seen as an athletic prospect as a sophomore, he's improved every aspect of his game this season. His points per game, field goal percentage, 3-point shooting and rebounds are all up significantly despite playing fewer minutes per game and taking one less shot per game. Scouts have compared him to both Trevor Ariza and Chandler Parsons.

"You're always a little wary when guys just break out like this as juniors, especially when it isn't a minutes thing," one scout said. "But I'll admit that as I watch him over time, I think he could be a starting small forward in our league someday. He's probably underrated."

Trimble is also turning heads and giving Tyus Jones a run for his money for the best freshman point guard in the nation. Trimble is a scoring guard who is especially relentless getting to the line. He's averaging 7.3 free throw attempts per game. He's also proved to be a solid shooter and passer, but the appeal is his ability to get wherever he wants on the floor.

"I don't know if he's really a point guard," one GM said. "That's why he's ranked as a bubble first-round guy for us, but I know the way our league is going, the ability to get where you want on the floor is big and Trimble can do that. I think he's probably a guy who's better off declaring next year, but he'll draw some interest in the first round if he declares."





Rakeem Christmas, PF, Sr., Syracuse

Christmas was a highly regarded prospect out of high school who never really evolved into anything more than a defensive stopper his first three seasons at Syracuse. As a junior, Christmas averaged a measly 5.8 points per game and could get on the court for only 23.6 minutes per game.

And while scouts regarded him as a marginal NBA prospect because of his shot blocking and rebounding ability, no one saw this coming. This year Christmas is averaging 18.3 points, 9.0 rebounds and 2.2 blocks per game and shooting 60 percent from the field. He has to be, hands down, the most improved player in college basketball.

And Christmas is doing all of this without much help from his teammates. He faces persistent double-teams every night, and even in bad games for Syracuse, he's been dominant.

Scouts tend to shy away from 23-year-olds who didn't start producing until they were 22. But it's not unprecedented that such a player would attract interest. Adreian Payne went No. 15 last year as a 23-year-old with a breakout senior season. Christmas doesn't have the same potential as Payne (Payne is bigger and can really shoot the ball), but there is interest in the league. I spoke to a number of NBA scouts who thought he'd get a lot of looks in the second round and perhaps even some looks late in the first.

"Age matters in the NBA draft," one GM said. "But size and athleticism matter even more. No one will take him really high, but he's really improved and at his size and with his physical tools, I think he's worth the risk in the late 20s or 30s."

Christmas sits at No. 50 on our Big Board but clearly could rise as he the draft gets closer.

 

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[Skooby]

http://insider.espn.go.com/blog/buster-olney/post/_/id/9204

Winners and losers of the Scherzer deal

When a big deal goes down the ripples always roll out in many directions, as seen in the Nationals' signing of Max Scherzer -- a deal with a multitude of winners and losers.

Let's take a look at both sides.

Winner: Scherzer, who gets tens of millions of dollars more after his bet on himself

When he turned down $144 million from the Detroit Tigers last spring, the decision was second-guessed not only by a lot of columnists, but also by a lot of other players.

That news broke right in the midst of a rash of Tommy John injuries, and privately, a lot of other players wondered how Scherzer could walk away from so much guaranteed money. One day in the middle of the summer, a longtime player called me over during batting practice and asked if it was true that Scherzer had turned down the big offer.

I answered in the affirmative. “He’s crazy,” the player said, shaking his head as he walked away. “Crazy.”

Actually, he’s not. Scherzer is really smart and thoughtful, and competitive, and while he has not yet addressed the reasons for that decision, I suspect he viewed it the way he would a strong hand in the midst of a poker game. He had just seen Clayton Kershaw get a $216 million deal from theLos Angeles Dodgers, in the year after Justin Verlander received a five-year, $140 million extension from the Tigers. Scherzer and his agent, Scott Boras, thought he could do better if he waited, while understanding the inherent risk. If he suffered a significant injury in 2014, or if he regressed markedly, he would cost himself millions -- tens of millions, really.

But Scherzer went to back to work after rejecting the Detroit proposal and had another strong season, making all of his starts, and no matter how you choose to evaluate the value of his deal with Washington -- and in Dave Cameron’s excellent piece about the Scherzer dollars, he explains why the present-day value of the deal might be something in the $170 million range -- it’s clear that Scherzer will get a lot more money because of the choice he made.

Winner: Scott Boras

The agent for Scherzer has fostered his relationship with Nationals billionaire owner Ted Lerner to the degree that about a third of the players on the team are Boras' clients -- Scherzer being the latest to join. Lerner is generally regarded by other owners as a relatively conservative spender, but Boras negotiated an imaginative contract structure that satisfied Lerner and, at the same time, netted the highest payout for any free-agent pitcher in baseball history.

Winners: The Nationals' executives, who have properly groomed their trade leverage in the first 48 hours after the deal

The on-background message being dispensed through reporters is that Washington intends to keep all of its starting pitching, including Jordan Zimmermann and Doug Fister, who are eligible for free agency after the 2015 season.

Which is exactly what you should say in this situation, rival executives maintain privately. When the Phillies traded for Roy Halladay in December 2009, they immediately rushed into a swap of Cliff Lee to the Seattle Mariners before even informing some other key teams -- the Red Sox and Yankees among them -- that Lee was available. The Nationals don’t have to address their surplus now; they have time to slow-play this, to go through the process of talking with all teams again, of even going into spring training and seeing if some injury in another camp makes another club desperate -- as the Braves were last spring, after Kris Medlen and Brandon Beachy got hurt.

After letting the trade market develop, some executives with other teams fully expect the Nationals to move either Zimmermann or Fister. “Because they don’t need all six guys,” one official said.

The signing of Scherzer could seal the departure of Zimmermann.

Loser: The Phillies, who just saw the trade leverage in their Cole Hamels discussions undercut by the likelihood that Washington deals one of its starting pitchers

If a team interested in Hamels doesn’t like the asking price for the left-hander -- and to date, rival officials say the Phillies are asking for a boatload of prospects, while insisting that somebody else will pay Hamels' salary -- they can turn to the Nationals for a less expensive pitcher.

• Pat Gillick won’t predict whether Hamels will be with the Phillies in spring training.

Loser: The general manager(s) of the 2019-2028 Nationals

Within five years, Scherzer’s performance will likely be in decline, and the Nationals’ general manager -- Rizzo, or his successor(s) -- will be left to steer around the dollars deferred in Scherzer’s contract. In other words, the credit card bill will come due at some point.

Winners:David Price, Johnny Cueto and Jordan Zimmermann

Those pitchers will likely be the elite pitchers in the free-agent market next fall. They will do very well, in light of the dollars that Scherzer got. The bar was raised, again.

• Shudders over the Scherzer deal reached Cincinnati, as Hal McCoy writes.

Winners: Baseball players, again

LeBron James is arguably the world's best-known sports star, and John Fisher of ESPN Stats & Information finds there are 26 MLB players making higher average annual salaries than LeBron.

Think about that.

Losers: The Mets and Marlins

The Marlins have loaded up during the offseason, investing big dollars in Giancarlo Stanton and trading for Martin Prado and Dee Gordon, but now have to overcome what appears to be a superteam to win the NL East. But the Marlins are in a better position than the Mets, because not only do the Mets have to try to find a way to beat the Nationals, but they may also suffer from the wrath of a fan base increasingly angry at the team’s unwillingness to have much more than a small-market payroll. The Mets are inhabitants of the best media market in the free world, with a loyal fan base built over more than a half-century -- and yet they have a payroll that will be about two-thirds the size of that of the Nationals.

In the eyes of a lot of Mets fans, that makes no sense. And they are right.

Winners: The Braves

Their decision to swap assets with short-term value -- Jason Heyward, Justin Upton and Evan Gattis -- in order to load up for 2017 looks better today, in light of how strong the Nationals appear to be. Over the next two years, Zimmermann, Fister and Stephen Strasburg are all headed for free agency, and by the start of the 2017 season, when the Braves are scheduled to open their new park, Atlanta should be positioned for a counterpunch.

• The Braves' list of prospects has been shuffled by trades, writes David O’Brien.

Loser: Any Major League Baseball official who tries to explain to Orioles owner Peter Angelos why the Nationals need more money from the MASN Network

Angelos is currently waged in a pitched legal battle with MLB over the issue, believing that he agreed to share the greater Baltimore-Washington area with the incoming Expos franchise only with the promise of a sweetheart TV contract.

Loser: The Tigers of 2015

They made a strong bid to retain Scherzer last spring, but in the end, one of the best pitchers in baseball walks away from Detroit, a team that has been in win-now mode. Dave Dombrowski told Anthony Fenech that he feels like the Tigers made a good effort.

Winners: The Tigers of 2018 and beyond

Detroit already has taken on major obligations for Miguel Cabrera and Verlander well into the future, and another whopper contract would have made the organization even more top heavy. It’s possible that the Tigers will look back on the Scherzer situation with a measure of relief.

 

[Skooby]

Around the league

• Other Detroit pitchers could help offset the loss of Scherzer, writes Lynn Henning.

• Signing Scherzer makes the Nationals better now and beyond.

• The Nationals have an embarrassment of riches, writes Deron Snyder.

• The Nats are banking on pitching, writes Tyler Kepner.

• The Scherzer signing guarantees nothing to the Nationals, writes Andy Martino.

• Money has flooded into Major League Baseball, writes Bernie Miklasz.

• The Brewers wanted to ensure a spot in their rotation for Jimmy Nelson, the primary motivation for dealing Yovani Gallardo (and $4 million, to help offset his salary) to the Texas Rangers. The Brewers have no current plans to pursue James Shields or a trade target such as Zimmermann.

• Tom Haudricourt has scouting reports on the players acquired by the Brewers.

• The Rangers' rotation could look something like this:

1. Yu Darvish
2. Derek Holland
3. Yovani Gallardo
4. Ross Detwiler
5. Colby Lewis

It’s a group that won’t be confused with that of the Nationals, but in a division of parity, it could be good enough to win.

• The Rangers' top priority of the offseason has been achieved, writes Gerry Fraley.

• Ten things you might not know about Gallardo.

• The Cubs continued their accelerated buildup for contention by trading for Dexter Fowler, a legit center fielder who had a good season in 2014 in Houston under hitting coach John Mailee – a recent Cubs hire.

• Considering service-time issues and development, this is what the Cubs' lineup could look like by May 1:

CF Fowler
LF Chris Coghlan
1B Anthony Rizzo
SS Starlin Castro
C Miguel Montero
3B Kris Bryant
RF Jorge Soler
2B Tommy La Stella

• The Cubs like the 23-year-old Arismendy Alcantara, who hit .205 in 70 games last summer in his first taste of the big leagues, but prefer to move him around the diamond rather than committing to him in center field.

• The Cubs' trade has no impact on the team's timeline for Kris Bryant.

• Meanwhile, the Astros are talking withRyan Vogelsong.

• Orioles GM Dan Duquette will only talk about the situation with theToronto Blue Jays when appropriate, he says.

A question that has been asked by executives with other teams: Why is Major League Baseball getting involved in the recruitment of Duquette on behalf of the Blue Jays, which the executives view as a departure from standard operating procedure?

Moves, deals and decisions

• Golfer Bubba Watson is buying into baseball, writes C. Trent Rosecrans.

NL West

• Henry Schulman writes about why the Giants have been quiet in this offseason.

NL Central

• Kolten Wong wants a chance to bat leadoff.

• Carlos Martinezwants a spot in the St. Louis rotation.

AL Central

• Terry Ryan believes the Twins will be better.

• Some scouts like the White Sox better than the Cubs.

AL East

• The Rays are well-stocked in shortstop prospects, writes Marc Topkin.

• The signing of Scherzer could create an opportunity for the Red Sox, writes Brian MacPherson.

• The Orioles see a bright future for Mychal Givens.

And today will be better than yesterday. Around the league

• Other Detroit pitchers could help offset the loss of Scherzer, writes Lynn Henning.

• Signing Scherzer makes the Nationals better now and beyond.

• The Nationals have an embarrassment of riches, writes Deron Snyder.

• The Nats are banking on pitching, writes Tyler Kepner.

• The Scherzer signing guarantees nothing to the Nationals, writes Andy Martino.

• Money has flooded into Major League Baseball, writes Bernie Miklasz.

• The Brewers wanted to ensure a spot in their rotation for Jimmy Nelson, the primary motivation for dealing Yovani Gallardo (and $4 million, to help offset his salary) to the Texas Rangers. The Brewers have no current plans to pursue James Shields or a trade target such as Zimmermann.

• Tom Haudricourt has scouting reports on the players acquired by the Brewers.

• The Rangers' rotation could look something like this:

1. Yu Darvish
2. Derek Holland
3. Yovani Gallardo
4. Ross Detwiler
5. Colby Lewis

It’s a group that won’t be confused with that of the Nationals, but in a division of parity, it could be good enough to win.

• The Rangers' top priority of the offseason has been achieved, writes Gerry Fraley.

• Ten things you might not know about Gallardo.

• The Cubs continued their accelerated buildup for contention by trading for Dexter Fowler, a legit center fielder who had a good season in 2014 in Houston under hitting coach John Mailee – a recent Cubs hire.

• Considering service-time issues and development, this is what the Cubs' lineup could look like by May 1:

CF Fowler
LF Chris Coghlan
1B Anthony Rizzo
SS Starlin Castro
C Miguel Montero
3B Kris Bryant
RF Jorge Soler
2B Tommy La Stella

• The Cubs like the 23-year-old Arismendy Alcantara, who hit .205 in 70 games last summer in his first taste of the big leagues, but prefer to move him around the diamond rather than committing to him in center field.

• The Cubs' trade has no impact on the team's timeline for Kris Bryant.

• Meanwhile, the Astros are talking withRyan Vogelsong.

• Orioles GM Dan Duquette will only talk about the situation with theToronto Blue Jays when appropriate, he says.

A question that has been asked by executives with other teams: Why is Major League Baseball getting involved in the recruitment of Duquette on behalf of the Blue Jays, which the executives view as a departure from standard operating procedure?

Moves, deals and decisions

• Golfer Bubba Watson is buying into baseball, writes C. Trent Rosecrans.

NL West

• Henry Schulman writes about why the Giants have been quiet in this offseason.

NL Central

• Kolten Wong wants a chance to bat leadoff.

• Carlos Martinezwants a spot in the St. Louis rotation.

AL Central

• Terry Ryan believes the Twins will be better.

• Some scouts like the White Sox better than the Cubs.

AL East

• The Rays are well-stocked in shortstop prospects, writes Marc Topkin.

• The signing of Scherzer could create an opportunity for the Red Sox, writes Brian MacPherson.

• The Orioles see a bright future for Mychal Givens.

And today will be better than yesterday.

 

[GreatestLaker]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...x_cid=InsiderTwitter_fordpelton_debatingTowns

 

[PRO BADA$$]

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[Skooby]

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Debating where Towns really ranks

ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton return to provide the kind of discussions that are happening in front offices around the NBA -- where scouts and statistical experts are breaking down NBA draft prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers."

Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns is the second-highest-ranked big man on Ford's Big Board (No. 3). However, his numbers aren't dominant. Why does he warrant a high draft ranking? Insider's NBA draft experts weigh in on that as well as other topics, including NBA comps for Towns, other bigs in the 2015 draft class who could flourish at the next level, and players who have recently emerged as draft sleepers.


Why is Karl-Anthony Towns ranked so high on the Big Board?

Chad Ford: While Big Board No. 1 Jahlil Okafor is a more dominating presence offensively, Towns has been equally good defensively for Kentucky this season. He's an elite shot-blocker and a very good rebounder who has the agility to get out and guard both 4s and 5s at the NBA level. He's a much more fluid athlete than Okafor, which I think largely accounts for his superior defense.

Offensively, Towns hasn't been as dominant. He lacks Okafor's footwork around the basket and, at times, he lacks Okafor's toughness when play gets physical. He has a nasty habit of fading away on his shots in the paint too often. But I think the platoon Kentucky runs combined with guards who love to shoot first and ask questions later (I'm looking at you, Harrison twins) play a larger role in his uneven offensively play.

The potential is there. Towns has soft hands, a high basketball IQ and, while he hasn't totally shown it this season, he can spread the floor and has range out to the NBA 3-point line. His ability to play both the 4 and 5 at the next level should be very attractive to teams drafting high.

Kevin Pelton: Towns currently sits ninth on my board in terms of projected WARP, but he's the leader among guys who are legitimately in contention for the top pick. (As noted last week, Okafor has performed better but his projection has regressed more to the mean because of his high 2-point percentage.)

The numbers play out basically like you'd expect. Towns is ahead of Okafor defensively, and rebounding and shot-blocking (his 14.0 percent block rate ranks fifth in the country, per KenPom.com) are currently his two biggest statistical strengths. But he's not as involved in the balanced UK offense, and his 2-point percentage (.510) is on the low side for an NBA-bound big man.


Which NBA players could be comparisons for Towns?

Ford: I'm trying to think of the last 6-foot-11 big man with a 7-4 wingspan and a 9-5 standing reach with Towns' skills. Is there a mobile big who can rebound, block shots at an elite level and on offense stretch the floor and pass the way Towns is capable of passing?

I can't really think of who that guy is right now. Kevin?

Pelton: SCHOENE isn't much of a help. The two players with similarity scores of better than 95 at the same age are Patrick O'Bryant, whose impressive performance against mid-major competition never translated to the NBA, and Steven Adams of the Oklahoma City Thunder.

From a physical/tools standpoint, I might say Al Horford. But Horford doesn't have Towns' wingspan, one reason why he's not the same kind of shot-blocking presence. And Horford grew into the superior offensive player in college. He was about the same age as a sophomore that Towns is now, and shot 60.8 percent from the field then.

Ford: Horford was the player I was thinking of as well. But Towns is significantly bigger: He's 3 inches taller with a much bigger wingspan and standing reach. What a monster Horford would be if he was Towns' size. That comp certainly won't hurt him.


Aside from Okafor and Towns, are there any other big men in this draft class who could be elite NBA payers?

Ford: I'm a huge Kristaps Porzingis fan. He's a long, athletic 4 who can stretch the floor and draws comparisons to a young Dirk Nowitzki by several players and scouts in Europe. If he were in the NCAA right now, I think he'd be in the mix for the No. 1 pick. I also love UCLA's Kevon Looney. He's another long, active forward who attacks the offensive glass but has the ability to handle the ball and shoot it from distance. He reminds me a bit of Lamar Odom.

And I think there's a case for Texas' Myles Turner and Kentucky's Willie Cauley-Stein. Cauley-Stein looks like the sort of elite defender who could guard four positions in the NBA. Turner can really shoot it and he's a good rebounder and shot-blocker. I think Turner has upside similar to LaMarcus Aldridge, though concerns about how he runs and his strength certainly are causes of concern. And my sleeper right now is Arkansas' Bobby Portis, whom I'll talk about more in a minute.

In short, this is a very good big-man draft. Who do you like, Kevin?

Pelton: I suspect we'll go into this in more detail in the future, but the top-ranked big man in terms of WARP projections isn't Okafor or Towns -- it's Turner. The other big man in the statistical top 10 is Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky, and while scouts seem to have come around on him, the top 10 remains a stretch.


Which players have recently emerged as draft sleepers?

Ford: You were on to him early, Kevin, but I think Portis is really living up to the high expectations you put on him. He's a versatile offensive player, rebounds, blocks shots and is very, very consistent. He's really stepped up his game in conference play, averaging 23 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 1.5 bpg and 1.5 spg. I've moved him to No. 13 on my Big Board, but I have a feeling that you may have him ranked even higher.

Pelton: Actually, that's almost exactly where he sits in terms of WARP projections: 12th overall. Portis has taken a nice step forward as a sophomore, and now the skills that were a little more subtle last season have become obvious.

My sleeper is Louisville freshman center Chinanu Onuaku. That name should sound familiar, since his older brother Arinze played at Syracuse and spent time in the NBA last season. Chinanu has a different game than his brother. He's longer and skinnier (6-10, 220 pounds) and not as effective offensively. But Onuaku stands out as a shot-blocker. He's rejecting better than 10 percent of opponent 2-point attempts, and his steal rate (3.1 percent) is excellent for a big man. Equally notably, Onuaku turned 18 in November, making him one of the youngest players in college hoops. So while I don't think he's likely to enter the draft this year, Onuaku's development is worth watching. Have you heard anything about him from scouts?

Ford: Yeah, he's definitely a sleeper. He plays 16 minutes per game for Louisville and averages just 3.8 ppg. If he went in the first round, he'd have the lowest ever scoring average for an U.S.-based first-round pick. But you're right to point out the impressive rebounding, shot-blocking and steal rates. Coach Rick Pitino loves him because he's a defensive monster.

Every scout that goes to a Louisville game mentions him as a prospect -- but one who will likely not be in the draft until 2016 or 2017. He's very raw right now. But who knows? With the continued growth of statistical analysis in many NBA front offices, he seems like a terrific test case.

 

[Skooby]

http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/stor...w-amin-elhassan-all-underrated-team-picks-nba

NBA All-Underrated Team

The All-Star starters are set to be announced Thursday; they, by definition, represent some of the most popular players in the NBA, by virtue of the fan vote.

In some cases, it's deserved: Stephen Curry, the leading vote-getter in the West, is also one of the leading candidates for MVP this season. In other cases, it's the product of massive staying popularity: Kobe Bryant, despite shooting 37 percent from the field, will likely snag the West's other starting backcourt position. The coaches will vote for the reserves, and while these players are more likely to be deserving picks, there still will be an element of "brand recognition" that goes into their selection. Where does that leave players such as Golden State's Draymond Green, a do-it-all versatile combo forward who's been a huge part of the Warriors' success this season?

Luckily, here at Insider Daily, we look out for the downtrodden, the undervalued and underappreciated. Green is on everyone's radar now, emerging as a League Pass darling for his spirited play, but here are some other players performing in pivotal roles for their teams -- they make up the "All-Underrated Team."

Tucker
P.J. Tucker | Phoenix Suns
Tucker has played a vital role for Phoenix the past couple of seasons as a tough, physical, one-on-one defender. He's got good size and anticipation, and plays with a nonstop motor and a competitive fire that allows him to hound opposing wings and be a general nuisance, taking opponents out of their comfort zone. Admittedly, that can get him into some trouble in his capacity as a help defender in a team concept, but the Suns can sic him onto volume scoring wings or high-usage post-up bigs, and that can neutralize that effect to some degree by virtue of him being nearest to the offensive focal point.

Last season, Tucker unveiled his 3-point range, and while most of his attempts came from the corners (166 attempts versus only 23 above the break), he was able to convert at a high efficiency (38 percent). This season, he's expanded his range to include above-the-break 3s, where the majority of his attempts have come from, and is shooting 37 percent overall from beyond the arc. It's this newfound shooting ability that makes him valuable, along with his career-high defensive rebounding percentage of a hair under 19 percent, which gives the Suns a ton of flexibility in small-ball lineups.

Morrow
Anthony Morrow | Oklahoma City Thunder
A sharpshooter who has bounced around the league, Morrow has long been one of my favorite specialists in the league. In his seven seasons in the NBA, he has never shot worse than 37 percent from 3-point range, and packs a ton of volume in the time he's on the floor, averaging just over four attempts in about 24 minutes a night (almost nine attempts per 100 possessions, according to basketball-reference.com). Additionally, he's a criminally underrated scorer in the in-between game, with a nice array of runners, floaters and pull-up shots that he's extremely efficient at when he's not able to explode all the way to the basket or finish over length. Given a shooter with his reputation, it's easy to see how important it is to develop that kind of counter in order to combat hard closeouts by aggressive defenders.

In "butter" situations (less than 5 seconds on shot clock), Morrow has been a terrific safety valve for the Thunder this season, shooting 38 percent on 21 attempts from downtown. The only way to stop Morrow is to guard him closely without giving up space -- he's shooting only 2-of-14 on 3s and 27-of-73 overall when a defender is within 3 feet of him (according to NBAsavant.com), but if your only recourse is to stay attached to him, he's already done his job, as any defender pulled in by Morrow's gravity is one fewer help defender Russell Westbrook or Kevin Durant have to worry about.

Dudley
Jared Dudley | Milwaukee Bucks
A big part of the resurgence of the Bucks this season has been the play of Dudley, who has brought his trademark accurate shooting and vet savvy to a young Milwaukee team searching for guidance. After a disappointing season in his sole campaign with the Clippers, he has found a niche with the Bucks coming off the bench as a spacer, shooting 39 percent from downtown, much closer in line to his numbers in Phoenix, where he averaged 41 percent 3-point shooting over four and a half seasons. He also has managed to maintain his excellent clip from long 2-point range (51 percent), and is shooting a career-high 74 percent in the restricted area.

But the biggest area of resurgence for Dudley has been on the defensive end, where he actually has posted the highest defensive real plus-minus among all shooting guards in the league (plus-3.30). Despite not being an athlete, Dudley has great anticipation and quick hands, and is a smart and active help defender (albeit a gambling one). That's not to say he's the best defending wing in the league, but it bears mentioning that he's having a profound impact on the defensive end for the second-best defense in the league. This is especially interesting when you consider the short-sighted decision by Doc Rivers to dump him (not to mention a 2017 lottery-protected first-rounder) in exchange for the eventually waived contracts of Miroslav Raduljica and Carlos Delfino.

Zeller

Gobert
Rudy Gobert | Utah Jazz
Tyler Zeller | Boston Celtics
While the first few players I mentioned are all on teams in the thick of the playoff race, I wanted to give some acknowledgment to a couple of guys whose vacation plans come April are already booked.

Gobert has been tremendous this season as a rim protector and above-the-rim finisher, a more under-control version of JaVale McGee, and he has drawn effusive praise from several writers on TV, including Zach Lowe on the Grantland Basketball Hour and ESPN Insider's Tom Haberstroh on NBA Coast 2 Coast (Haberstroh's kudos were so emphatic, it led George Karl to remark, "I think he likes Gobert"). Gobert is holding opponents to 37 percent shooting at the rim and ranks third in defensive RPM among centers at plus-4.18, not to mention inhaling nearly a quarter of all available defensive rebounds when he's on the floor.

Meanwhile, Zeller has blossomed on the offensive end in Boston, where he's been able to take advantage of extra touches, particularly on the low block. In college, I admired Zeller's array of Antawn Jamison-esque unconventional flip shots around the basket, and he's used them to help him be an excellent finisher out of the pick-and-roll despite not having a ton of explosion or lift. He also has developed a nice free-throw-line-extended jumper, which can allow him to shallow roll and pull up for the open jumper.

News and notes

• On Wednesday night against the short-handed Blazers, Tucker showed how his rebounding comes in handy, grabbing a season-high 13 boards in a Suns victory that saw them blow a 25-point lead and go down five with 2:43 to go before going on an Eric Bledsoe-fueled 13-3 run to close out Portland. Bledsoe dropped a career-high 33 points, which caught Blazers coach Terry Stotts off guard, as he remarked that you would have thought Bledsoe would have scored 33 in a game by now.

• The Suns desperately needed this win to maintain separation from hard-charging OKC, which won in overtime Wednesday night in Washington, D.C., after Westbrook broke free on a broken inbounds play to streak to an uncontested layup. A lot of blame has fallen on Bradley Beal for overcommitting defensively in the backcourt, but some credit should go to Westbrook, who pulled a vet move by tugging Beal toward him sharply before exploding. It reminded me of the layup LeBron James hit against the Pacers in Game 1 of the 2013 Eastern Conference finals when he blew by an overcommitting Paul George; in actuality, he hit George sharply back, forcing the ensuing overcommit. Vet moves!

• Bryant may not be All-NBA anymore, but he's still perennial all-interview: "The reality is, I'm doing some pretty phenomenal things in 30 minutes. My body's not that f---ed up."

• Tweet of the week comes from Micky Arison ... sorta. He retweeted (in succession) two tweets from Forbes magazine: one ranking the happiest place (city) to work in the country, then the unhappiest place to work. Coincidence? (Picture courtesy of USA Today.)

 

[Trav]

Revis/Sherman: NFL's best CB's.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/play...id=InsiderTwitter_Yates_ComparingShermanRevis

Why Seahawks DC Dan Quinn fits in Atlanta

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/play...nfl?ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_Yates_QuinnFitinATL