Okafor is clear top pick
ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton return to provide the kind of discussions that are happening in front offices around the NBA -- where scouts and statistical experts are breaking down NBA draft prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers."
Question: Should Jahlil Okafor be the No. 1 overall pick?
Kevin Pelton: Chad, we're halfway through the college season, and Jahlil Okafor remains atop your draft board. It's hard to say he's done anything to dissuade that opinion. Okafor has been dominant offensively for a team that was undefeated against a challenging schedule until an unexpected two-game losing streak. He's not currently at the top of my rankings of projected WARP (he's sixth, in fact), but there's actually a good explanation for that. The system doesn't believe anyone can be as good at finishing as Okafor has been.
As of now, Okafor's 2-point percentage would be the second-best by a major-conference player to average at least 15 points per game in College Basketball Reference's database (back to 1997-98), trailing only Villanova's Michael Bradley in 2000-01 (.727). And Bradley did that as a fourth-year transfer. If we narrow the list to freshmen, Okafor is No. 1 by a huge margin over Arizona State's Ike Diogu (.625 in 2002-03). As the season goes on, Okafor's 2-point percentage won't be regressed as heavily to the mean, and he should continue to climb up the rankings.
As a result, I'd take him No. 1 overall at this point. Safe to assume you agree?
Chad Ford: The Big Board is a reflection of the consensus of two dozen or so NBA scouts and GMs that I speak with. He's been No. 1 on our Big Board since we released the 1.0 in July.
Nothing has changed. If anything, he's strengthened the hold on No. 1. Of the dozen or so GMs and scouts I spoke with this past weekend, all of them had Okafor No. 1 on their board. In this day and age, it's hard to live up to the hype. Fans were deeply disappointed in Andrew Wiggins last season, Nerlens Noel (our No. 1 prospect in 2013), and, believe it or not, Anthony Davis in 2012. All of them screamed OVERRATED to me all season.
Okafor, however, has really lived up to the hype as one of the most polished low post prospects we've seen come into college ball as a freshman. He has incredible hands, excellent footwork in the paint and a soft touch. You just don't find guys like that every day. Maybe once a decade. Clearly, the numbers are supporting that.
Oh, and by the way, I love that WARP has some cynicism programmed into it. Reminds me of TARS, the robot in "Interstellar," and every single NBA scout not named Tony Ronzone that I know.
Question: How does Okafor compare to recent No. 1 picks?
Pelton: In the past decade, the average No. 1 pick has been projected for an average of 3.1 WARP during his rookie contract. Okafor's current projection (2.6 WARP) is a little on the low side of that group, though I think there's a chance he ends up nearly there when it's all said and done. Here's how that compares graphically to the past five No. 1 picks. Okafor would also rank in the middle of this group -- behind Davis and Kyrie Irving, but ahead of Anthony Bennett, John Wall and Wiggins.
Subjectively, where would you put him among those players?
Ford: Of those five players, only one of them, Davis, was unanimously considered by scouts and GMs to be a franchise-type player by NBA scouts. I think Okafor's lack of elite athleticism will keep his ceiling lower than Davis -- especially on the defensive end. Wiggins had the lowest WARP projection of any of the prospects, but I think he was the next guy scouts really thought could be a superstar because of his unique athletic abilities at his size. So far, his NBA performance, especially over the last month, as we noted in our last Ford-Pelton, is pointing in that direction. Wiggins' potential is unlimited.
On the other side, I think that Okafor is clearly more of a no-brainer than Irving or Bennett were coming into the draft. Irving, if you remember, had played just nine games for Duke that season because of injury and became the No. 1 pick by default. Bennett's draft class was historically weak and there wasn't a consensus player after Noel went down with an ACL injury. I think both were perceived at the time to be weak No. 1 picks. Irving has clearly proved worthy of being drafted No. 1. Bennett, not so much.
To me, the question is between Okafor and Wall for third place. Wall got off to a slow start in the NBA, primarily because of injuries, and I think people forget what an elite prospect scouts thought he was. Many of them believed he would have a better career than Derrick Rose (and he might, thanks to a slew of knee injuries for Rose). But I think Okafor's size and the fact that there is a dearth of big men who can really score in the paint give him the nod.
So I'd rank him third behind Davis and Wiggins.
Question: How does Okafor compare to recent top post prospects?
Pelton: To go deeper on Okafor's strengths and weaknesses, we can compare him to a different group of peers -- elite big men in the past five years. According to College Basketball-Reference, Okafor is the sixth major-conference freshman big man to average at least .2 Win Shares per game since 1998-99. Here are advanced stats for the group.
Top Freshman Post Prospects
Player
Year School 2P% OR% DR% Blk% Usg
Chris Bosh 2003 Georgia Tech .576 .108 .208 .067 .224
Greg Oden 2007 Ohio State .616 .148 .261 .153 .264
Kevin Love 2008 UCLA .611 .170 .312 .050 .269
Jared Sullinger 2011 Ohio State .550 .156 .288 .020 .270
Anthony Davis 2012 Kentucky .653 .118 .245 .137 .188
Jahlil Okafor 2015 Duke .684 .172 .216 .056 .283
As expected, Okafor is the best offensive player of the group. His ultra-high percentage finishing has come on the highest usage rate of these players -- check out Fran Fraschilla's film breakdown for more on how Okafor's post game makes that possible -- and is also tops in offensive rebound rate. Naturally, Okafor lags defensively, where he's near the bottom in defensive rebounding and shot blocking. When you put together those strengths and weaknesses, where does Okafor rate?
Ford: That's really great company, though I'm not sure he's a direct comp to any of those players. A taller Jared Sullinger might make the most sense, given his body type and limited athleticism. That's not faint praise. If Sullinger was 6-11 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan and didn't come into the draft with a bad back, he would have been the No. 1 pick.
Overall, I think his game reminds me a lot of Al Jefferson. The fact that he's bigger than Al and a little more athletic again makes him an even better prospect. There are very few bigs in the league who can really punish teams offensively in the paint. Okafor is so skilled, he brings a completely different dimension to the table. From an offensive skills standpoint, he reminds me a lot of Tim Duncan. He doesn't have Duncan's athleticism and isn't the rebounder that Duncan was ... but the "Big Fundamental" wouldn't be a bad nickname for him. I don't think he'll be Duncan, because of his deficiencies in rebounding and defense, but offensively, he's going to score a lot of buckets in the NBA.
Pelton: I agree with the Jefferson comp, though it probably is worth noting that Jefferson has never been a high-percentage shooter like Okafor in college. The best 2-point percentage of his career was 53.3 percent as a rookie, fresh out of high school. Okafor's Duke performance translates to 58.7 percent shooting in the NBA, so while that might come down the remainder of the season he's far ahead of Okafor.
Question: Every week we ask each of you to identify a potential draft sleeper for us. Who has caught your attention this week?
Pelton: James Blackmon Jr., G, Indiana.
My projections don't really have Blackmon a lot higher than your board, Chad, but I'm intrigued by his high-volume 3-point shooting (he's attempting nearly six triples per game and making them at a 40 percent clip). I see a resemblance to Randy Foye, another undersized perimeter threat who found a role in the NBA by settling in at shooting guard after teams initially tried to make him a point guard. That's worth a second-round pick, right?
Ford: Yeah, he's No. 44 on our Board. He's a great shooter who is unafraid to let it fly. He just lacks great size for his position (he's 6-3 in shoes), and isn't a great athlete. So he's a role player in the league. I like the Foye comp, though I think Foye was a better athlete coming into the NBA. Maybe Jimmer Fredette?
My prospect this week: Demetrius Jackson, PG, So., Notre Dame.
I wrote about Jackson in my latest Stock Watch but wanted to hear your take on him. He doesn't have great size (though a very solid 6-foot-5 wingspan for a point guard) but I love everything else about his game. He can shoot it, pass it, defend. He has an NBA body and athleticism. His assist numbers are low because he shares ballhandling duties with Jerian Grant, but he was a point guard in high school and will be their lead point next season at Notre Dame when Grant leaves for the NBA. I've had some scouts compare him favorably to a young Eric Bledsoe.
Scouts are really struggling to come up with great point guard prospects after Emmanuel Mudiay and D'Angelo Russell. I know you like Tyus Jones. What do you think of Jackson?
Pelton: Jackson has to be one of the most improved players in the country. If we looked only at this season, he'd be solidly in the top 20 of my projections. Including his freshman season drags his projection down to the second-round level. There are good reasons for that. Jackson's unlikely to keep making 60-plus percent of his 2s, as he has so far. But the combination of 40 percent 3-point shooting and a high steal rate is a good one for future NBA success.