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Skooby

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How Revis and Sherman compare

In a league where quarterbacks are shattering passing records seemingly every season, and in which pass defense -- by dint of strict contact rules -- has never been more difficult to play, the value of a capable cover cornerback is undeniable. This past offseason, three young cornerbacks -- Cleveland's Joe Haden, Arizona's Patrick Peterson and, of course, Seattle's Richard Sherman -- were recipients of lucrative, long-term contract extensions to continue to serve as cornerstones of the defenses for the franchises that originally drafted them. Those who excel at the position are paid handsomely -- and deservedly.

Less than two weeks from now, the Patriots and Seahawks will face off in Super Bowl XLIX, a game that will feature both Sherman and Patriots standout Darrelle Revis, the two first-team All-Pro selections for the 2014 season at cornerback. And while there are other highly skilled and productive cornerbacks throughout the NFL, Revis and Sherman set the bar for cornerback play, even if their work, stylistically, is very different.

Here's a look at what makes each of them so good and my take on which one would be the better fit for most NFL teams.





Alignment

It's not hard to find Sherman before the snap: He almost exclusively aligns to the left side of the Seahawks' defense. Sherman has played 928 defensive snaps this season, aligning on the wide left side on 847 of them (91.3 percent); for his career, he has played 2,839 snaps on the wide left side of the defense and just 90 snaps on the right side of the defense. And while some will quickly ask: If he's such a shutdown cornerback, why doesn't Seattle utilize him to shadow an opposing team's wide receiver week-to-week and follow that player around the formation? The answer is simple: Seattle's defensive scheme doesn't call for it. Seattle relies on its cornerbacks to play physically at the line of scrimmage and often patrol one third of the field in their Cover 3 shell (with safety Earl Thomas as the general in the middle of the field).



Revis, meanwhile, is more of a movable chess piece for the Patriots' defense. There have been weeks in which Revis has been isolated on an opposing team's top receiver (for example, Week 14, when he held Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen to just one catch for 3 yards while covering him on almost every snap), and others in which his assignment varies throughout the game (in the first half of the AFC Championship Game, Revis was aligned opposite five different Colts receivers). Below is a table chronicling his usage this season.





Darrelle Revis' Usage, 2014-15
Location Total Snaps Percentage
Wide left 522 50.5
Slot left 125 12.1
Wide right 271 26.2
Slot right 115 11.1




Physical skill set

Sherman boasts a 6-foot-3, long, wiry-strong frame with a high-cut lower half, checking in at 195 pounds. Revis, a full 4 inches shorter, has a thicker cut to him and weighs closer to 200 pounds. But neither player's frame prevents him from excelling at what he does. Sherman is a terrific proactive athlete with acceleration, speed and explosion back to the football on routes in which receivers work back toward the line of scrimmage. He has exceedingly long arms and excellent ball skills at the point of catch, a reflection of his previous days as a college wide receiver at Stanford. He's a little tight-hipped in transitioning laterally, but he offsets that in many ways, including through his instincts.



"[He] does a very good job of using his size/length to his advantage and excellent ball skills," one NFL personnel man said of Sherman. "But what makes him so successful, much like Revis, is his preparation/intelligence on a weekly basis for his opponents. He knows the receivers inside [and] out -- strengths, weaknesses and route tendencies -- which gives him the ability to anticipate and make plays on the ball. [He has] rare football intelligence like Revis."



Revis is a fluid, smooth mover who plays in-phase (running stride for stride with a receiver and in a position to make a play on the ball) as consistently as any other cornerback in the NFL. He has the smarts to diagnose a player's route early in the receiver's path plus the ability to adjust his lower half at the breaking point of a route. Like Sherman, he has excellent ball skills. While there are cornerbacks who have a penchant for making calculated gambles on jumping routes, Revis is so frequently in the right place at the right time that he doesn't often need to take such risks. While contact is limited among defensive backs in the NFL, Revis has the uncommon ability to use his hands at the line of scrimmage and at the catch point when balls are thrown his way. And while Sherman has the straight-line speed edge, Revis is unquestionably fast enough to track vertical threat receivers down the field.



"Revis does everything right," an NFL coach said. "He's a good teammate and is obviously a hard worker. He clearly studies the heck out of his matchup and the opponent, and his play is unreal, obviously. He has great patience at the line of scrimmage, good ball skills, he's savvy and he knows what he can and can't get away with. He can play man and zone, inside and perimeter; he can do it all."



The takeaway

If one were to place Revis or Sherman in all 32 of the NFL defenses, Revis would be the more natural fit because of his more conventional skill set. Separating the player from the system, my opinion is that Revis is a better cornerback with a more well-rounded skill set. But the truth of player evaluation is that assessments are the byproduct of both a player's ability and the tasks he is asked to take on from a week-in, week-out basis.

Seattle's defense is the best in the NFL, and there's no better fit for it at cornerback than Sherman. He's a rare player. And Revis, whom the Patriots moved quickly to sign once he became available as a free agent last offseason, has the versatility, toughness and movement skills that have helped make this Patriots defense as balanced and equipped as perhaps any New England defense since the team last won a Super Bowl. Debate will likely ensue leading up to the Super Bowl about which player is superior, but the smart take is this: They collectively set the bar at cornerback, just in different ways. There is no player either cornerback's team would prefer to have in his place.





Notes


• Jim Tomsula's name had been floated as a potential replacement for Jim Harbaugh long before Harbaugh and the team officially mutually parted ways, but that Tomsula became the 49ers' head coach is still an unlikely occurrence. As it turns out, Tomsula joins Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett as the only NFL head coaches who received internal promotions to their jobs, as every other current NFL head coach was hired to his post from outside the organization. Tomsula's case is even slightly different from that of Garrett, who was named the full-time head coach in 2011 after taking over on an interim basis for the second half of the 2010 season following the team's decision to fire Wade Phillips.

• Playing in the Super Bowl results in a substantial financial bonus for all players involved, as winning players will earn a bonus of $141,000 this year, while the players from the losing team will pocket $70,500. But the payout is quite a bit larger for Patriots WR Julian Edelman by dint of the fact that the Patriots reached the Super Bowl coupled with Edelman surpassing 80 receptions on the season. That was one of four scenarios under which Edelman could earn a $500,000 bonus this season to go along with his base salary of $1 million, $2 million of his $5 million signing bonus he received back in March and the $437,500 he made in per-game roster bonuses. That results in a total payout of $3,937,500 for Edelman this season, which surely isn't bad for a guy with career earnings of $2,926,870 entering 2014.
 

Skooby

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Falcons right to wait for Quinn


While a deal is not yet officially in place -- and cannot be consummated until after the Super Bowl -- it would be a major surprise if the Atlanta Falcons didn't name current Seattle Seahawks defensive coordinator Dan Quinn as their head coach shortly after Seattle competes in Super Bowl XLIX.



Quinn, per league rules, has been afforded two separate interviews with Atlanta -- one during the Seahawks' wild-card round bye, and another this past Monday -- on top of interviews with several other teams who were interested in one of the orchestrators of the league's best defense.

It's an unconventional move for a team to wait this long, as the last time a coordinator who coached in the Super Bowl was named a head coach after the game was back in 2009, when the Kansas City Chiefs hired then Arizona Cardinals offensive coordinator Todd Haley. More commonly, teams work to fill their vacancies expediently, though this year's coaching cycle moved slower than it has in recent offseasons.

Though the move comes with risk, patience will pay off for the Falcons with Quinn, who profiles as a very good fit for what the team needs.





Assessing the risk



The obvious risk in waiting on Quinn is the possibility that he would turn down the job offer. This seems wholly far-fetched, but in the entirely unlikely event that it did happen, the team also has had strong interviews with other candidates, including Detroit Lions defensive coordinator Teryl Austin.

But the more relevant risk might be this: As we are seeing this week, assistant coaches around the league are moving fast to find new work. Hiring a head coach sooner rather than later allows him to get a staff together. But despite the fact that Quinn's deal is not yet official, colleague Adam Schefter has reported that former Cleveland Browns offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan will assume that role in Atlanta. The team has several other assistants still under contract that Quinn will have the chance to evaluate upon arrival.





Where the defense already fits



By most any measure -- subjective or statistical -- the Falcons' defense did not stack up in 2014. And while they led the league in passing yards allowed, it is the pass rush and linebackers that are the areas most in need of fixing. It's the secondary -- counter to what 279.9 passing yards per game would suggest -- that offers a foundation and promise for Quinn.

The Falcons' two best defensive players are their young cornerbacks, Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford, who will enter their third year in the league in 2015. Quinn's defensive system is predicated around a Cover 3 shell, which requires his two perimeter cornerbacks to reliably handle one-third of the field apiece. This is the system in which we've seen Richard Sherman, Brandon Browner, Byron Maxwell and others excel.

Trufant and Alford are qualified candidates to be the next rising star cornerbacks we see emerge from this scheme. Finding a center fielder-type safety is the next step for Quinn and his staff as it relates to the secondary.





Where the defense needs beefing up



The Falcons spent big in free agency last offseason to add bulk and strength at the point of attack along their defensive line by signing Paul Soliai and Tyson Jackson to multiyear deals. Specific to Quinn's system, the two will likely occupy the critical interior defensive line spots.



Seahawks DL Snap Count Percentages
Player Snap percentage
DE Michael Bennett 84.68
DE Cliff Avril 73.03
DT Kevin Williams 44.74
DT Tony McDaniel 40.96
DT Jordan Hill 36.67
DE O'Brien Schofield 34.42
LB/DE Bruce Irvin 70.79


In Seattle, Quinn's defense -- as was the case when Gus Bradley oversaw it before him -- relies largely on a four-man front, with a couple of critical positions of note. One of the two defensive ends occupies what is referred to as the "Leo" in this defense. This player is an athletic pass-rusher, while the other end may well be closer in size to an average defensive tackle than an average defensive end. This player is not solely a run-stuffer -- the disruptive Michael Bennett plays this role in Seattle now -- as his responsibilities include contributing in both phases of the game.

The Falcons have the eighth pick in the upcoming draft, and in a pool of talent that is deep on edge players, they are in a prime spot to land a coveted pass-rusher. But developing depth along the defensive line will also matter. The Seahawks had six defensive linemen play at least 34.42 percent of their defensive snaps this season, seven if one were to include Bruce Irvin (who kicks down to defensive end from linebacker in the team's nickel package).



Part of the Seahawks' deep rotation was a byproduct of injury issues -- standout interior player Brandon Mebane landed on injured reserve after just nine games played -- but having a deep rotation can pay off to keep bodies fresh for an attacking front seven.





Quinn himself



Even before the regular season had ended and the coaching cycle had begun, a sentiment I heard from folks around the league was that Quinn was an exceptional person, not just a talented coach. I asked an NFL assistant coach who has previously worked with Quinn to lay out the areas in which he believed Quinn stood out.

"He was special in his approach of wanting his guys to learn and master the fundamentals of defeating the opponent consistently and without hesitation," he said.

"DQ gives a stern, no-nonsense approach to coaching that the players admired and embraced," he said before later adding, "There is no gray area."

In Seattle, players have raved about Quinn and what he has meant to their organization.

Ultimately, coaching hires are judged by wins and losses. By that logic, our best assessment of Quinn to Atlanta will be made down the road. But as it pertains to the areas of need in Atlanta and the team's willingness to wait on Quinn, the Falcons have taken a prudent approach as they work to find their new head coach.





Notes


• No matter the location, one angle to the Pro Bowl that should not be overlooked is the ability for players to interact with others from around the league. Six players -- Chiefs outside linebackers Justin Houston and Tamba Hali, Chiefs nose tackle Dontari Poe, Bills defensive tackle Kyle Williams, Bears guard Kyle Long and Ravens outside linebacker Elvis Dumervil -- are tied together in part by their work with Joe Kim, a skill development coach who has a martial arts background and experience coaching in the NFL dating back to the early 1990s.

Hali, Houston, current Bears defensive end Willie Young (Kim worked with Chicago during the 2014 season and helped defensive tackle Stephen Paea have his best year as a pro) and others have been outspoken in their support of what Kim's teaching has done for their careers. Kim is in Glendale, Arizona, this week to see the Pro Bowl, a good chance to catch up with some of his former pupils.

• He's not likely to be one of the more talked about Seahawks defenders during the next two weeks, but defensive tackle Kevin Williams is a name of note in the upcoming Super Bowl. After 11 seasons with the Vikings, the 34-year-old Williams hit free agency this past offseason and drew interest from multiple suitors, including the Patriots and Seahawks. As it turned out, Williams ultimately turned down a more lucrative offer from the Patriots to play in Seattle, where he has contributed 34 total tackles in 18 games played this season.

With Minnesota in a transition period, Williams signed with Seattle in part because of his desire to play for a championship. We'll see if Williams' decision to choose Seattle over New England proves to be the right one in his quest to win a Lombardi trophy.

• Preparation is ultra critical leading up to the Super Bowl -- and often not easy given the added responsibilities that playing in the big game entails. Both the Patriots and Seahawks will be relying on their practice squad for strong scout team looks during practice, but both teams also understand the importance of development of their practice squad players. They each have a track record of paying some of their practice squad players an elevated salary, something that can serve to entice them to stay with the team if another team offers to sign them to the active roster.

There are three players total from the two teams who are currently making a beefed-up practice squad salary, as the Patriots are paying guard Chris Barker and defensive end Jake Bequette $10,000 per week, while Seattle is paying linebacker Allen Bradford $12,600 per week, twice the practice squad minimum of $6,300 per week. The Patriots tapped into their practice squad leading into the AFC Championship Game, promoting defensive tackle Joe Vellano on Saturday. He would go on to play 20 defensive snaps in the team's resounding win.
 

Dominique Wilkins

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ATLANTA

After the starting lineups for the 2015 NBA All-Star Game were revealed last week based on the results of fan voting, head coaches will submit their choices this week for reserves in each conference.

They're asked to vote for two backcourt players, three frontcourt players and two wild-card spots from any position. Following those rules and utilizing advanced stats, including my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric and ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM), here are my choices for All-Star reserves.









East backcourt

Jimmy Butler | Chicago Bulls
Jeff Teague | Atlanta Hawks


Despite a recent slump, Butler has established himself as one of the league's top 10 to 15 players this season, unexpectedly developing into a go-to scorer with the ability to create his own shot. The additional offensive burden, in combination with his heavy minutes load, has taken a bit of a toll on his defense. Still, value systems reward him for durability, and he ranks eighth in the league in WARP. Teague is aptly described as the engine behind the Hawks' rise to the top of the Eastern Conference. He's unquestionably one of the conference's three best point guards and a deserving first-time All-Star.

East frontcourt

Al Horford | Atlanta Hawks
Kevin Love | Cleveland Cavaliers
Paul Millsap | Atlanta Hawks

Two more Hawks get the nod in the frontcourt. Millsap is the easiest pick, having repeated last season's performance that earned him his first trip to the All-Star Game. Horford hasn't played quite as well, in part because he had to shake off the rust early in the season, but no East frontcourt player outperforms him at both ends.

Love has been maligned all season for his poor defense and difficulty fitting in with the Cavaliers. Yet he is still tops among East frontcourt players in WARP, and it's harder than you might think to find evidence that Love is the biggest problem with the Cleveland defense. Per NBA.com/Stats, the Cavaliers allow fewer points per possession with Love on the court than any of their other big men.

East wild cards

Kyle Korver | Atlanta Hawks
Kyrie Irving | Cleveland Cavaliers



nba_g_love1x_288x162.jpg

Andrew D. Bernstein/Getty ImagesWhile Kevin Love hasn't exactly flourished in Cleveland, he's played well enough to earn an All-Star spot.


RPM actually rates Korver just behind Millsap as the Hawks' second-best player, and one of the 10 most valuable in the league. He's on pace for an unprecedented 50-50-90 season (FG%-3FG%-FT%), and those stats don't tell the full story of how Korver's gravity creates space for his teammates. He's an underrated defender and he deserves to be Atlanta's fourth All-Star this season.

The last spot in the East could go to any of a handful of point guards (Kemba Walker,Brandon Knight and Brandon Jennings pre-Achilles injury were all in the mix); either of Miami's aging stars (Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade); or to box-score-stuffing big men with defensive limitations (Andre Drummond and Nikola Vucevic). Ultimately, I gave the nod to Irving, who's been as effective as the other score-first point guards and is likely to play better during the second half.









West backcourt

James Harden | Houston Rockets
Chris Paul | Los Angeles Clippers

Harden has been, at minimum, one of the league's three most valuable players this season. He's the best of an extraordinarily deep pool of West guard reserves. It's easy to take Paul for granted as a new generation of star point guards rises up, but he's fourth in WARP and third in RPM, so I'd take him second of the group.

West frontcourt

DeMarcus Cousins | Sacramento Kings
Tim Duncan | San Antonio Spurs
Kevin Durant | Oklahoma City Thunder

Neither illness nor coaching change (and associated sulking) should keep Cousins from making his first trip to the All-Star Game. His RPM ranks eighth in the league, and Cousins is in the top 15 in WARP. The best West frontcourt reserve by RPM is Duncan, who continues to enjoy one of the best seasons ever for a player his age (38). He's a no-brainer.



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Picking Durant ultimately comes down to my opinion that the All-Star Game should feature the best players in the league, not the players who have the best first half. The timing of Durant's injuries doesn't make him any less of an All-Star than he would be if they happened in March and April. When healthy, Durant has been as effective as anyone in the NBA. He's an All-Star.

The choice would have been relatively easy had thumb surgery forced LaMarcus Aldridge to miss the game, allowing Durant to be selected as his replacement. With Aldridge playing on, West coaches face a more difficult choice. Aldridge is playing at a similar level to past All-Star campaigns; Cousins and Duncan have simply been better.

West wild cards

Damian Lillard | Portland Trail Blazers
Russell Westbrook | Oklahoma City Thunder

Lillard is the consensus third choice for West backup guard, ranking in that spot in both RPM and WARP behind Harden and Paul. Westbrook ranks fifth in WARP because of the time he missed due to injury, but he's likely to reach fourth by the All-Star break and could surpass Lillard by season's end because his play has been off the charts since he returned.

West injury replacement

Klay Thompson | Golden State Warriors

Presuming he misses the All-Star Game, Kobe Bryant's injury saves a tough choice on Thompson. Even before Friday's historic 37-point quarter against the Sacramento Kings, Thompson was clearly a deserving All-Star. Unfortunately, he plays in a conference with more deserving All-Stars than available reserve spots, particularly in the backcourt. That also applies to Mike Conley of the Memphis Grizzlies, who would be an easy choice in the East but gets squeezed off my West roster.









News and notes

Friday's Insider Daily, projecting Portland's future without Aldridge, was quickly rendered meaningless by his decision to play through a torn ligament in his left thumb. Add in the Blazers' win over the Washington Wizards on Saturday night and a pair of Oklahoma City losses and suddenly the future again looks rosy in the Rose City.

As a contrast to Friday's projection, with a healthy Aldridge, Portland wins an average of 53 games in 1,000 simulations of the remainder of the season. The Blazers claim the Northwest Division title 87 percent of the time. There is still a realistic chance that Portland finishes with a worse record than the West's fifth seed (currently the Clippers, 1.5 games back) and does not have home-court advantage in the opening round of the playoffs; the Blazers earn home court in the first round in 56 percent of simulations.






• The day after Detroit Pistons guard Brandon Jennings was lost for the season with a ruptured Achilles, D.J. Augustin scored a career-high 35 points and handed out eight assists as Jennings' replacement in the starting lineup Sunday night at Toronto. While Augustin won't keep up that pace, there's reason to believe he'll be more effective as a starter than he has been as a reserve so far this season.

• Over the last three years, spent primarily as a reserve, Augustin has started 14 games. In those starts, he's made 44.7 percent of his 2-point attempts and 44.4 percent of his 3s, as compared to 41.7 percent and 35.5 percent as a reserve, respectively. Augustin's true shooting percentage jumps from .535 as a reserve to .617 as a starter. Splits happen, and that small sample of starts probably overstates Augustin's true ability. Still, he appears to perform better with heavy minutes, something he also got in a reserve role during his effective 2013-14 stint with the Chicago Bulls. That could make Augustin a useful fantasy player the remainder of the campaign.

• ESPN's Tim McMahon and Marc Stein reported Sunday night that the Dallas Mavericks areconfident they will eventually sign veteran center Jermaine O'Neal, who sat out the first half of the season. The Mavericks have been searching for a backup center since dealing Brandan Wright to the Boston Celtics as part of the package for Rajon Rondo, cycling through Greg Smith and Charlie Villanueva before recently settling on rookie Dwight Powell.

Powell, who had 10 points and six boards in 15 minutes in Sunday's loss at New Orleans, has been a revelation for Dallas with his athleticism and high basketball IQ. However, the skinny Powell has been overmatched by physical centers, so playing him exclusively as a power forward would make sense if the Mavericks can add O'Neal.

• Weekly top five: best NFL/NBA namesakes

5. James Jones (WR, Oakland Raiders; SF, Cleveland Cavaliers)
4. Anthony Davis (OT, San Francisco 49ers; PF, New Orleans Pelicans)
3. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (C, 1969-89) and Karim Abdul-Jabbar (RB, 1996-2000)
2. Larry Brown (CB, 1991-98; coach, 1977-2010)
1. Steve Smith (WR, Baltimore Ravens; SG, 1991-2005)

Honorable mention: Jason Smith (OT, 2009-13; PF, New York Knicks), LeBron James (SF, Cleveland Cavaliers) and LaMichael James (RB, Miami Dolphins), Randy White (DE, 1975-88; PF, 1989-94)
 

Skooby

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Stock Watch: Give us your bigs

The strength of the 2015 NBA draft is its bigs. Right now we are projecting that 10 of the first 18 players to come off the board will be either centers or power forwards.

The members of this big-man group come in all varieties. There are big, burly, back-to-the-basket big men. There are elite shot-blockers and rebounders. There are bigs who can stretch the floor and even handle the rock. Regardless of what type of big you are looking for, there's someone for you in this draft.

Here's a Stock Watch update on how the top 10 bigs on our Big Board are faring right now:




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Jahlil Okafor, C, Fr., Duke Blue Devils



Kevin Pelton and I broke down Okafor less than two weeks ago. Nothing has really changed -- Okafor is by far the hands-down favorite to be the No. 1 pick in the draft. Since Kevin and I wrote last, he had 18 points and 7 rebounds in a win over Louisville followed by 14 points and 5 assists in a win over Pittsburgh and 17 points and 10 rebounds in a victory at St. John's on Sunday. While scouts wish his rebounding, shot-blocking numbers and overall defense were better, offensively he's the best big on our Board.



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Karl-Anthony Towns, C, Fr., Kentucky Wildcats


Pelton and I spilled some digital ink on Towns on Friday. Again, there's very little that has changed. Teams interested in Towns aren't particularly deterred by his stats right now (he scored just four points in 12 minutes versus South Carolina on Saturday). It's his rebounding and especially his shot-blocking, combined with soft hands and a good perimeter jumper, that intrigue them. As Pelton and I discussed, think of Towns as a bigger version of Al Horford. There have been some concerns about Towns' toughness, and that helped explain why he got just 12 minutes in a very physical game against South Carolina. Those concerns aren't anything new and could keep Towns from ever seriously challenging Okafor for the No. 1 pick.



Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia


Porzingis is averaging 9.3 PPG and 4.7 RPG while shooting 35.5 percent from 3-point range for Baloncesto Sevilla in the Spanish ACB. His numbers in Eurocup play are even a little stronger: 10.9 PPG and 4.3 RPG on 47 percent shooting from 3. Many international scouts think that he's a more athletic version of Bulls rookie Nikola Mirotic. That's high praise. If Mirotic had been in the 2014 NBA draft, I believe he would've been drafted in the top five or six. Porzingis might not be as NBA-ready as Mirotic was coming out of the gate, but he's got an even higher ceiling.



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Kevon Looney, PF, Fr., UCLA Bruins


Looney is another upside pick. While his game, both offensively and defensively, is raw, the tools are there for him to be a Lamar Odom-type player at the next level. Thanks to his length, good athleticism and terrific motor, there isn't much Looney can't do. He's an excellent rebounder, especially on the offensive glass (he's currently averaging a double-double). He has 3-point range on his jump shot. He can handle the ball and he can play in the post. His performance the past five games in Pac-12 play has been pretty encouraging. Looney needs to get stronger and polish virtually every area of his game, but there is so much potential that he looks like a lock as a top-10 pick.



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Willie Cauley-Stein, C, Jr., Kentucky Wildcats


Cauley-Stein has been considered a potential lottery pick since his freshman year, but he's finally living up to the hype. His game continues to mature and scouts are more comfortable saying he'll be an elite defender in the NBA -- someone who has the rare ability to guard centers and wings. However, Cauley-Stein's offensive numbers, after spiking a bit in mid-December, have been pretty dismal of late. He had just two points against South Carolina, six points against Vanderbilt, four against Texas A&M and five against Louisville. Exactly how high can a player go who struggles to score in the double digits as a college junior? The Kentucky platoon surely has something to do with it, but he's still averaging nearly 25 minutes per game in conference play.



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Myles Turner, PF, Fr., Texas Longhorns


Scouts tend to either love or hate Turner right now. He's an analytics darling (something Pelton and I will soon address in our draft articles) and there have been games, mostly against weaker competition, in which he's looked worthy of the No. 1 pick. The challenge is that Turner tends to struggle when paired against top competition. He still lacks strength and can get bullied. Regardless, scouts who like him see a huge, athletic forward who both protects the rim at an elite level and can stretch the floor with the 3-point shot. His detractors note that he lacks strength, is inconsistent and runs so awkwardly that they're worried there could be issues (either now or long-term) with his knees. He might be the single hardest guy to place on the board right now.



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Bobby Portis, PF, So., Arkansas Razorbacks


Pelton and I wrote about Portis last week as a potential draft sleeper. He responded that evening by hitting the game-winning shot against Alabama (despite going just 4-for-12 from the field). On Sunday, he scored 12 points and grabbed 10 boards in a win against Missouri. While Portis isn't really an elite anything, he does just about everything a power forward should do well. That may never be enough to get him to crack the top 10, but it should put him somewhere in the late lottery to mid-first round.



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Jakob Poeltl, C, Fr., Utah Utes


After a very hot start to his career in late November and early December, Poeltl has cooled off considerably. However, that hasn't deterred scouts from looking favorably on his long-term future as an NBA center. He's a very good rebounder, a solid shot-blocker and has tools on the offensive end. His biggest problem right now is a lack of strength. Poeltl has a tendency to get pushed around a lot. Obviously that will be an even bigger issue in the NBA, and might be the encouragement he needs to return to Utah for his sophomore season. But if he decided to declare now, someone would take him in the first round just based on his long-term upside.



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Montrezl Harrell, PF, Jr., Louisville Cardinals


As I've said many times, Harrell might be one of the most consistent players to appear on our Board for some time. The past couple of years he's essentially hung around the middle of the Big Board in the 10 to 20 range. His lack of elite size keeps him from climbing too high, but his athleticism, length and motor keep him from falling too low. Whoever drafts Harrell may not be getting a star, but his new team will be getting the type of blue-collar power forward whom fans and coaches love.



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Frank Kaminsky, C, Sr., Wisconsin Badgers


Kaminsky has followed up a very strong junior season with an elite senior season. He's a rare 5 who can rebound, block shots and stretch the floor. Of all the bigs on our list he's probably the best 3-point shooter (Turner would be a close second). The question so many scouts have is: Will his game translate? Will he be strong enough and athletic enough to guard in the post? And while he's proved to be a very good shooter the past two seasons from 3-point range (especially for a big), is that skill enough to make him a high draft pick? Some scouts strongly believe that it is. Others believe equally strongly that he'll struggle in the NBA. His ranking here essentially splits the difference.



Robert Upshaw, C, Free Agent


Upshaw has been one of the fastest risers on our draft board this season. He's been a dominating shot-blocking and rebounding force, and looked like he was set up to make a move into the first round. However, on Monday, Washington announced that it dismissed Upshaw from the program for a violation of team rules. This comes after Upshaw was dismissed from Fresno State in 2013 for violating team rules as well. The talent is clearly there, but it's also clear that Upshaw might need help, and those questions over his dismissals should keep him planted in the second round, where players require less financial risk or commitment.



Others to watch: Cliff Alexander, PF, Kansas; Christian Wood, PF, UNLV; Dakari Johnson, C, Kentucky; Egemen Guven, PF, Turkey; Chris McCullough, PF, Syracuse; Domantas Sabonis, PF, Gonzaga; Guillermo Hernangomez, C, Spain; Amida Brimah, C, UConn; Wang Zhelin, C, China;Chris Walker, PF, Florida; Damian Jones, C, Vanderbilt; Rakeem Christmas, PF, Syracuse; Jarell Martin, PF, LSU; Kennedy Meeks, C, North Carolina; Brice Johnson, PF, North Carolina; Mouhammadou Jaiteh, PF, France; Shevon Thompson, C, George Mason
 

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Debating where Towns really ranks

ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton return to provide the kind of discussions that are happening in front offices around the NBA -- where scouts and statistical experts are breaking down NBA draft prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers."

Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns is the second-highest-ranked big man on Ford's Big Board (No. 3). However, his numbers aren't dominant. Why does he warrant a high draft ranking? Insider's NBA draft experts weigh in on that as well as other topics, including NBA comps for Towns, other bigs in the 2015 draft class who could flourish at the next level, and players who have recently emerged as draft sleepers.

Why is Karl-Anthony Towns ranked so high on the Big Board?

Chad Ford: While Big Board No. 1 Jahlil Okafor is a more dominating presence offensively, Towns has been equally good defensively for Kentucky this season. He's an elite shot-blocker and a very good rebounder who has the agility to get out and guard both 4s and 5s at the NBA level. He's a much more fluid athlete than Okafor, which I think largely accounts for his superior defense.






Offensively, Towns hasn't been as dominant. He lacks Okafor's footwork around the basket and, at times, he lacks Okafor's toughness when play gets physical. He has a nasty habit of fading away on his shots in the paint too often. But I think the platoon Kentucky runs, combined with guards who love to shoot first and ask questions later (I'm looking at you, Harrison twins), play a larger role in his uneven offensively play.

The potential is there. Towns has soft hands, a high basketball IQ and, while he hasn't totally shown it this season, he can spread the floor and has range out to the NBA 3-point line. His ability to play both the 4 and 5 at the next level should be very attractive to teams drafting high.

Kevin Pelton: Towns currently sits ninth on my board in terms of projected WARP, but he's the leader among guys who are legitimately in contention for the top pick. (As noted last week, Okafor has performed better, but his projection has regressed more to the mean because of his high 2-point percentage.)

The numbers play out basically like you'd expect. Towns is ahead of Okafor defensively, and rebounding and shot-blocking (his 14.0 percent block rate ranks fifth in the country, per KenPom.com) are currently his two biggest statistical strengths. But he's not as involved in the balanced UK offense, and his 2-point percentage (.510) is on the low side for an NBA-bound big man.

Which NBA players could be comparisons for Towns?

Ford: I'm trying to think of the last 6-foot-11 big man with a 7-4 wingspan and a 9-5 standing reach with Towns' skills. Is there a mobile big who can rebound, block shots at an elite level, and on offense stretch the floor and pass the way Towns is capable of passing?

I can't really think of who that guy is right now. Kevin?


Pelton: SCHOENE isn't much of a help. The two players with similarity scores of better than 95 at the same age are Patrick O'Bryant, whose impressive performance against mid-major competition never translated to the NBA, and Steven Adams of the Oklahoma City Thunder.

From a physical/tools standpoint, I might say Al Horford. But Horford doesn't have Towns' wingspan, one reason why he's not the same kind of shot-blocking presence. And Horford grew into the superior offensive player in college. He was about the same age as a sophomore that Towns is now, and he shot 60.8 percent from the field then.

Ford: Horford was the player I was thinking of, as well. But Towns is significantly bigger: He's 3 inches taller with a much bigger wingspan and standing reach. What a monster Horford would be if he was Towns' size. That comp certainly won't hurt him.

Aside from Okafor and Towns, are there any other big men in this draft class who could be elite NBA players?

Ford: I'm a huge Kristaps Porzingis fan. He's a long, athletic 4 who can stretch the floor and draws comparisons to a young Dirk Nowitzki by several players and scouts in Europe. If he were in the NCAA right now, I think he'd be in the mix for the No. 1 pick. I also love UCLA's Kevon Looney. He's another long, active forward who attacks the offensive glass but has the ability to handle the ball and shoot it from distance. He reminds me a bit of Lamar Odom.


And I think there's a case for Texas' Myles Turner and Kentucky's Willie Cauley-Stein. Cauley-Stein looks like the sort of elite defender who could guard four positions in the NBA. Turner can really shoot it, and he's a good rebounder and shot-blocker. I think Turner has upside similar to LaMarcus Aldridge, though concerns about how he runs and his strength certainly are causes of concern. And my sleeper right now is Arkansas' Bobby Portis, whom I'll talk about more in a minute.

In short, this is a very good big-man draft. Who do you like, Kevin?

Pelton: I suspect we'll go into this in more detail in the future, but the top-ranked big man in terms of WARP projections isn't Okafor or Towns -- it's Turner. The other big man in the statistical top 10 is Wisconsin's Frank Kaminsky, and while scouts seem to have come around on him, the top 10 remains a stretch.

Which players have recently emerged as draft sleepers?

Ford: You were on to him early, Kevin, but I think Portis is really living up to the high expectations you put on him. He's a versatile offensive player, rebounds, blocks shots and is very, very consistent. He's really stepped up his game in conference play, averaging 23 ppg, 9.0 rpg, 1.5 bpg and 1.5 spg. I've moved him to No. 13 on my Big Board, but I have a feeling that you may have him ranked even higher.

Pelton: Actually, that's almost exactly where he sits in terms of WARP projections: 12th overall. Portis has taken a nice step forward as a sophomore, and now the skills that were a little more subtle last season have become obvious.

My sleeper is Louisville freshman center Chinanu Onuaku. That name should sound familiar, since his older brother Arinze played at Syracuse and spent time in the NBA last season. Chinanu has a different game than his brother. He's longer and skinnier (6-10, 220 pounds) and not as effective offensively. But Onuaku stands out as a shot-blocker. He's rejecting better than 10 percent of opponents' 2-point attempts, and his steal rate (3.1 percent) is excellent for a big man. Equally notably, Onuaku turned 18 in November, making him one of the youngest players in college hoops. So while I don't think he's likely to enter the draft this year, Onuaku's development is worth watching. Have you heard anything about him from scouts?

Ford: Yeah, he's definitely a sleeper. He plays 16 minutes per game for Louisville and averages just 3.8 ppg. If he went in the first round, he'd have the lowest ever scoring average for a U.S.-based first-round pick. But you're right to point out the impressive rebounding, shot-blocking and steal rates. Coach Rick Pitino loves him because he's a defensive monster. Every scout who goes to a Louisville game mentions him as a prospect -- but one who will likely not be in the draft until 2016 or 2017. He's very raw right now. But who knows? With the continued growth of statistical analysis in many NBA front offices, he seems like a terrific test case.
 

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Film Session: Karl-Anthony Towns

The NBA draft has become a baseball draft.

Because of the relative youth of recent drafts, very few players per year can step into an NBA lineup and contribute immediately. Similar to MLB, more and more selections are based on long-term (three-to-five year) projections.

Which brings me to Kentucky's Karl-Anthony Towns. The 7-foot, 250-pound freshman with a 7-foot-3 wingspan will be one of the top three players selected on June 25. And although the 19-year-old is not as advanced as fellow Wildcat Anthony Davis was at the same stage, he is the basketball equivalent of a five-tool guy, with a nice combination of skill, size, athleticism, youth and a "give a damn" meter than runs high.


However, unlike Duke's Jahlil Okafor, he is not the focal point of Kentucky's team even if he is its best NBA prospect. To compare, Okafor has had 15 games of eight attempts or more for the Blue Devils while Towns had not had even one game with more than eight field goal attempts.

The first subtle attribute that jumps out to me about Towns is that he is an alert player on both ends of the floor. Watch him closely for 10 minutes of any game and you'll notice that he has a good feel. Something I see as a coach is that rebounds he can't grab initially, he'll tip to himself.

On the defensive end, he is proving to be -- because of his considerable length, timing and instincts -- a prolific shot-blocker. In fact, his block rate, according to kenpom.com, is a robust 14 percent, fifth-best in the country. In Tuesday's win against Vanderbilt, he blocked seven shots in just 18 minutes.

In this recent win over Missouri at home, look at Towns' extension on these blocked shots. He is at the TOP of the square on the board when he rejects the second shot. This takes outstanding timing, a product of his athletic ability. This is what I would describe as "rim protection."



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He also possesses good lateral quickness for a player his size which, combined with his basketball I.Q., allows him to effectively defend screen-and-roll and isolation plays. With so much of the college game starting to be influenced by the NBA's screen-and-roll and one-on-one concepts, finding a young big man who can defend away from the basket is critical.

See how Towns jumps out to hedge on the screen-and-roll, switches onto the ball and keeps an Eastern Kentucky guard in front of him. He "walls off the basket," staying between the ball and the basket until the offensive player has to pass the ball back out.



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The first time I studied Towns closely was when he was a 16-year-old high school player from New Jersey, who because of his mother's Dominican roots, was playing for John Calipari and the Dominican Republic national team in 2012. Just failing to qualify for the London Olympics, the team was taking on Team USA in an exhibition game in Las Vegas.

Despite Towns' massive size even then, he had all the mannerisms of a normal 16-year-old. And at that time, he was spending an inordinate amount of time playing on the perimeter and eschewing physical play around the basket. When I asked him about that, he told me he worked on his outside game as an antidote to being double- and triple-teamed and picking up cheap fouls in his high school games. It made perfect sense.

And Towns still has a unique ability to stretch a defense with his outside shooting although he's attempted only seven 3-point shots this season. It hasn't needed to be part of his offensive arsenal, but it is a capable weapon he is likely to show off during his NBA career. One NBA scout told me he watched Towns make 13 straight college 3-point shots before a recent Kentucky game.

Towns has shown terrific offensive agility in the open floor. In the Wildcats' win at Louisville, he had an open-court move and finish that was ridiculous. Look at him handle the ball at mid-court and finish with a swooping move to the basket.



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Most importantly to Towns' future development is that he has begun to embrace physical contact in the paint. He works hard for position and has all the attributes that will make him an outstanding low-post scorer, including a soft shooting touch that, along with his size, translates well to the painted area.

Right now, for obvious reasons -- he is a righty -- he turns to his left to shoot a right-handed jump hook almost exclusively. Check out his release point on both of these jump hook shots against Louisville.



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And while his right-hand jump hook over his left shoulder is his go-to move, he possesses an increasingly deft shooting touch with his left hand, as well. He utilizes it here in this game versus Ole Miss.



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I used the baseball analogy earlier, in part, because I believe college basketball at its highest levels is the equivalent of Double-A baseball right now. More and more top players are leaving for the NBA early and the talent level, in my opinion, has been diluted. So starring at this level is no guarantee of future stardom in the NBA. (Look at how many first-round picks last June are not yet contributing for their teams.)

I've tried to watch Towns closely and I have talked with him and to people close to him. The sense is he loves the game, is very coachable and is willing to work hard to improve. It's the same sense I get about him from NBA people who are following him carefully.

Towns is a young player with the long-term potential to be a professional star, but he will arrive in the NBA as still relatively raw and physically immature (however with immense talent). He may not yet have the polish that Okafor possesses, but automatically thinking the Duke big man will be better five to 10 years from now is premature.
 

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2015 ranking of all 30 farm systems

To kick off my look this week at the best prospects in the minor leagues, I've ranked all 30 MLB farm systems from top to bottom, considering only the players who are currently in the systems and have not yet exhausted their rookie of the year eligibility. (I use the same criterion for the individual player rankings that will be posted over the next few days.)

Similar to last year, there are only a handful of systems that combine both a few high-impact or high-ceiling prospects and the depth down to and past the end of their top-10 list. (My top 10 rankings by team will be released Friday.) Many systems ranked in the teens boast a couple very good prospects -- say, one or two guys who project as above-average regulars and another two or three who might be everyday guys -- and then it's bench parts and relievers. Those players are good to have, as you'd much rather fill those spots with minimum-salary players than have to reach out to free agency, but their asset value is much lower than the values of prospects who project as average or better.

One major change: You'll notice this year I have more large-market teams in the top 10, as ownership groups in those cities recognize the value in building better stables of prospects, which has included hiring better scouts and coaches away from other organizations. The draft has always offered a competitive advantage to lower-revenue teams willing to put their money into amateur scouting, in part because the clubs with higher payrolls chose to put their cash into the big league roster. If that's no longer true, it will reduce the opportunity for the Pittsburghs and Kansas Citys of MLB to continue to contend.



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1. Chicago Cubs

Take a moment to recover from your surprise ... The past 12 months have seemed more like a coronation for the Cubs than one for the teams that actually played in the World Series. The hype around their system is justified by the talent in it, with the strongest collection of top-shelf hitting prospects I can remember since I started working in baseball. They have someone coming at just about every position other than catcher and first base, and most of them fare well both in traditional evaluation and in analysis of their performance to date.



The Cubs' draft strategy under the Theo Epstein/Jed Hoyer regime has been to grab a polished hitter in the first round and load up on arms later. That, along with the trade of Jeff Samardzija and Jason Hammel that netted two more top hitting prospects, has produced a system that's full of hitting prospects but still a bit light on the pitching side. The first wave of bats reached the majors in the middle of 2014, with more coming this year, but there won't be enough at-bats for Javier Baez and Jorge Soler and Arismendy Alcantara and Addison Russell and Kyle Schwarber and Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo ... and that's not even everyone who might end up pushing for playing time. The Cubs are in prime position to flip a young hitter for a pitcher or even to swing a bigger deal, especially if they want to try to set themselves up to win the NL Central in 2016. There are young starting pitching prospects here to like, led by 20-year-old Duane Underwood, but they're all a few years away.



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2. Minnesota Twins

The Twins return almost their entire top 10 intact but have added first-rounder Nick Gordon and a slew of college relievers who look like they'll move quickly to the high minors, and they continue to find value on the international front.

The flip side of this is the Twins got virtually no help from their farm system in 2014, but I expect that to change quickly this year, with Alex Meyer on the verge of the big leagues and Miguel Sano not far behind.



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3. Houston Astros

It is still strong, but it's now a bit weaker after a slew of promotions last year, their inability to come to an agreement with the first overall pick in the draft, Brady Aiken, and the trade of three prospects, two of them in my 2015 top 100, for Evan Gattis. The Astros' strength is still in bats, followed by a collection of hard throwers who might start but, if not, project as impact relievers.



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4. New York Mets

They're deep in arms and bats, especially guys who might play in the middle of the diamond or pitch in the top three spots of a major league rotation. They've kept all their prospects while patiently building, but this is probably the year to swap some of their starting pitching prospect depth for a bat.



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5. Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox lost four top-10 prospects to promotions last year, yet they remain a top-5 system, thanks to big moves forward by Blake Swihart, Manuel Margot and Rafael Devers, the latter of whom will play all of 2015 at age 18, and the midseason trade that netted them lefty Eduardo Rodriguez, now their No. 2-ranked pitching prospect.



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6. Atlanta Braves

They were a bottom-5 system when the offseason started, but six trades later, they've built up a stash of prospects that makes up for five years of execrable drafts and very little production from their Latin American efforts. Ten of their top 12 prospects have appeared on at least one of my past three top-100 rankings, including five this year.



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7. Pittsburgh Pirates

It's hard to believe how many games the Pirates have won in the majors over the past two years without putting a significant dent in their top-level minor league talent. They promoted only Gerrit Cole and Gregory Polanco and dealt just one major prospect in Dilson Herrera.

They still have several players likely to help the major league club in 2015, and just about every affiliate should have at least one potential star on its Opening Day roster.



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8. Colorado Rockies

I called the Rockies "sneaky good" last year and ranked them No. 8 at that time, and I actually like the system a little more this year, despite injury setbacks that affected four of their top six guys.

Strong pro debuts from their top few picks from 2014 also boosted their stock.



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9. Washington Nationals

The Nats' system got a big boost last year, when they kept their first-round draft pick and landed a good college arm, Erick Fedde, who fell because he had blown out his elbow. Then they added two top-100 prospects in exchange for Steven Souza this offseason. They're also so set at the major league level that they haven't had to deal much from their minor league affiliates; just two of their top 10 from last year, Souza and Nate Karns, are no longer with the Nats, and both are now property of Tampa Bay, through separate deals.



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10. Los Angeles Dodgers

Their front three prospects are the strongest in the game, and their top 10 is still strong, but it thins out very quickly beyond their 10th or 11th guy. In terms of just guys with the potential to be stars, they rival the Cubs and Twins.



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11. Texas Rangers

A lost year at the major league level led to a productive trade with Detroit that netted the Rangers a top-100 prospect in Jake Thompson, and they had one of the steals of the 2014 draft when they got right-hander Luis Ortiz with a supplemental pick. There has been some attrition from the large group of high-upside position players they brought into the system in 2011-12, but not as much as you might expect, with that set likely to produce two or three stars in a couple seasons.



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12. Chicago White Sox

They've added four players within the top-120 range of prospects in the past 24 months, via the draft and one trade, and they didn't give up any of those premium guys to add Jeff Samardzija this offseason. Although the system still isn't deep in average prospects, it is in the best shape it has been since I started ranking organizations seven years ago.



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13. St. Louis Cardinals

You'd have to go down to rookie ball to find a potential star in the system -- they lost one, Oscar Taveras, to tragedy last autumn -- yet the Cardinals can run 15 or more names who project to have significant, major league roles as average regulars or quality extra guys.



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14. Arizona Diamondbacks

I might take their top four starting pitching prospects over anyone else's in baseball. The system is rather light on bats, though, and trading two young hitting prospects for a back-end starter this winter didn't help that.



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15. Kansas City Royals

Years of strong drafts paid off by bringing the Royals one win from a world championship, and there's actually quite a bit of talent still in the system, as the Royals didn't have to trade much of what they already had. This organization has lost some depth, but the top 10 is still solid, especially in starting pitching.



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16. Cleveland Indians

The system got a huge boost from perhaps my favorite 2014 draft class, which featured a good mix of probability and upside and boosted a farm that had seen a number of top-10 prospects struggle the past season.



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17. Cincinnati Reds

This could easily be a top-10 system in a year, given how many upside players are in the organization, from relievers working as starters to toolshed, Latin American position players. There is very little 2015 impact, however, and nearly all of their top 10 prospects have some significant risk associated with them.



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18. San Diego Padres

New GM AJ Preller has traded away much of the depth in this system but has managed to retain the Padres' top two prospects, Hunter Renfroe and Austin Hedges, as well as the pitcher they consider their top arm, Matt Wisler. It's been a busy offseason in San Diego.



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19. Toronto Blue Jays

The Jays have been very aggressive in using their prospects to upgrade the major league roster, and they promoted most of the remainder, so what's left in the system is largely high-ceiling, Latin American prospects who are several years away and the products of their 2014 draft, from which both first-rounders have had surgery.
 

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20. New York Yankees

The Yankees' system still has more talent than production, as several key prospects continued to have trouble staying on the field, but a very strong 2013 draft class and a blowout year on the international front have the system trending up again.



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21. Seattle Mariners

The Mariners' system was long light on bats and full of arms, but the promotions of Taijuan Walker and James Paxton, as well as a pair of hitter-heavy drafts, have flipped that around. (Paxton is obviously a lock to be in the 2015 rotation, and Walker should push to land there as well.)



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22. Baltimore Orioles

The Orioles still have a pair of future aces atop the system, but they traded one of their top starting pitching prospects for Andrew Miller and didn't pick until the third round last year, which means they missed out on a chance to add more high-end talent to the system.



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23. Tampa Bay Rays

The Rays' draft record has been among the most disappointing in baseball because their big league club cannot succeed without a steady pipeline of inexpensive players coming out from their minor leagues. They haven't had a pick in the first 10 rounds turn into anything above an up-and-down guy since the 2007 draft, which included David Price and Matt Moore. The various trades of veterans and Wil Myers helped add some talent back to the system, but the bottom line for the new regime in St. Petersburg is they have to get more big leaguers from their top draft picks.



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24. Miami Marlins

Their system rarely ranks high because they promote players to big league roles so quickly, but there's a solid group of very young arms in the system that will be on the list for a while, as well as a teenage position player or two with some real upside. There's very little in near-term talent here, however.



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25. Philadelphia Phillies

They might have been 28th or 29th had they not traded Jimmy Rollins to the Dodgers for a pair of solid pitching prospects, but the system still lacks depth up top, and aside from J.P. Crawford, their best teenage position players are still a long way off. More trades could obviously help push this system up.



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26. Oakland Athletics

They've shipped out a lot of talent to try to advance in the playoffs the past two years, including sending two first-round picks to the Cubs in the first Jeff Samardzija trade. The system is especially light on pitchers who project as more than fifth starters, with Dillon Overton, who is just coming back from Tommy John surgery, their best bet to end up a mid-rotation guy.



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27. Los Angeles Angels

They were a lock to be 30th before they acquired Andrew Heaney in the Howie Kendrick trade and signed Cuban amateur Roberto Baldoquin, but after those two and first-rounder Sean Newcomb, the system drops off very quickly.



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28. Milwaukee Brewers

Years of bad drafts and struggles developing pitching have caught up with the Brewers, who've had just a few draft picks in the first five rounds -- Brett Lawrie, Yovani Gallardo, and Jonathan Lucroy -- pan out since they took Ryan Braun in 2005. Jimmy Nelson might join that group, but it's hard to sustain a low-payroll club without a productive farm system.



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29. San Francisco Giants

The bottom two clubs on this list are here in large part because they use or trade what they get. The Giants traded two prospects for Jake Peavy, while five of their eight regular hitters and three of their five starters were homegrown. Drafting low in the first round hasn't helped, and recently they've taken a number of high school arms who have promise but have moved slowly through the system.



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30. Detroit Tigers

They've traded five of their top 10 prospects from last year's list (Nos. 3, 4, 5, 8 and 10) and made their top guy from that list, Nick Castellanos, their everyday third baseman. The No. 9 prospect in the system, Endrys Briceno, blew out his elbow, and the No. 2 prospect, Daniel Fields, fought a wrist injury all year. I loved their first-rounder from last year, but I had to build their top 10 almost completely from scratch because of how actively Dave Dombrowski uses what he has in the system.
 

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NBA's most clutch players

Last week, we took a look at how teams are performing in the clutch. We got a lesson in just how volatile this subset of data can be Tuesday, as runaway league clutch leader Golden State went down in overtime against the Chicago Bulls. The Warriors still rank as the best clutch team in the league by outscoring opponents by 36.8 points per 100 possessions. That's impressive, but last week they were at plus-63.2. Thus is the world of small sample sizes.






Today we're turning our attention to player performance in clutch situations. If the data is that unstable at the team level, you can imagine how it works at the player level. Measuring what players have done is no big trick -- the stats are straightforward once we've agreed to a definition of what constitutes a clutch situation. As we did with the teams, we're going with the most common definition: Any possession during the last five minutes of regulation (plus overtime, as with the Warriors and Bulls on Tuesday) when the score is within five points.


It's important to remember that because of limited sample sizes, among other things, the stats you'll read here might tell you what has occurred, but they don't necessary suggest what's going to happen. That's true of both teams and players, as the Warriors learned last night, but especially true of players. Teams at least can review end-of-game strategies and refocus their attack around certain players. While performance in clutch situations is an important part of the story of a given season, the volatility of the category means that I wouldn't feel comfortable folding the data into my projection system. Not yet, anyway.

All raw clutch data was downloaded from NBA.com/stats, and the core metrics in play are wins above replacement (WARP) and its per-possession counterpart, individual winning percentage.

Here's a look at the NBA's best in terms of late-game production and efficiency, as well as who steps up their game the most -- and who fades the most -- down the stretch.





Who's leading this season?

Looking at the league leaders in clutch WARP tells us which players have compiled the best combination of volume and efficiency in tight situations for the season. That's great, but the problem is the volume part of the equation. As mentioned last week, the total clutch minutes played from team to team can vary greatly. Even after their overtime adventure Tuesday, the Warriors have played just 42 clutch minutes this season. Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies have played 134. Thus, the leaderboard is dominated by teams who have played a lot of close games. But we'll show it to you anyway.



Rank Player Team WARP
1 Damian Lillard Portland Trail Blazers +0.81
2 Markieff Morris Phoenix Suns +0.77
3 Pau Gasol Chicago Bulls +0.76
4 Monta Ellis Dallas Mavericks +0.74
5 James Harden Houston Rockets +0.73
6 Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks +0.69
7 Anthony Davis New Orleans Pelicans +0.67
8 Mike Conley Memphis Grizzlies +0.67
9 LaMarcus Aldridge Portland Trail Blazers +0.67
10 Jimmy Butler Chicago Bulls +0.60


Damian Lillard has a reputation as one of the league's top closers, and the numbers so far in 2014-15 validate that perception. He's fourth in the league with 84 points in 95 clutch minutes but, more impressive, he's turned the ball over just twice despite having the ball in his hands so often. There aren't a lot of surprises on the list, though Morris' No. 2 ranking will raise some eyebrows. As I discovered while putting together these numbers, it shouldn't; over the past three years, Morris has consistently raised his level of play at clutch time as much as any player in the league.

Who's been the most efficient?

The previous list is conspicuously missing any members of those sharpshooting Warriors. The explanation of course is that Golden State just hasn't played very many close games. So let's look at the leaders by winning percentage for players that have logged at least 30 clutch minutes.



Rank Player Team Win %
1 Anthony Davis New Orleans Pelicans .934
2 LeBron James Cleveland Cavaliers .908
3 James Harden Houston Rockets .901
4 Dirk Nowitzki Dallas Mavericks .849
5 Pau Gasol Chicago Bulls .833
6 Kyle Korver Atlanta Hawks .826
7 Damian Lillard Portland Trail Blazers .826
8 Jimmy Butler Chicago Bulls .822
9 Monta Ellis Dallas Mavericks .820
10 Stephen Curry Golden State Warriors .818


These numbers can change a lot even in a single night because of sample size, as they did for Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson, who combined to shoot 4-for-11 with zero 3-pointers or free throws during Golden State's 10 clutch minutes Tuesday. New Orleans hasn't been a very good clutch team, but it's not Davis' fault. He's 19-for-27 from the floor and 19-for-21 from the line in 62 clutch minutes with zero turnovers. Korver's 98.5 clutch true shooting percentage is just silly, though it's driven up by his status as one of the league's best closing foul shooters. Nevertheless, that figure is one of the most remarkable stats of the season of any type. He's 10-for-15 from the field with eight 3s, and 18-for-19 from the line for 46 points in 63 clutch minutes.

Who steps it up the most?

In theory, a player whose winning percentage in clutch situations greatly exceeds his normal total is "stepping it up." Of course, if his normal winning percentage stinks, then it's not that important that he improves when it's close. And for a measure like this, you really want to maximize sample size. That's not easy because if you go back too far in the past, you risk measuring a player's skill that no longer exists. I used three-year clutch stats, including this season, and cut the list down to players with at least 300 clutch minutes over that span. I only looked at players with a composite winning percentage of at least .500 because, again, I'm not interested in poor players who become less poor. These filters left me with a list of 40 qualifying players.



Player cMIN cWin% tWin% CLUTCH
Chris Bosh 391 .721 .573 1.260
Nicolas Batum 420 .667 .547 1.221
James Harden 358 .836 .686 1.219
Zach Randolph 400 .647 .544 1.190
Mike Conley 411 .694 .607 1.144
Jeff Teague 354 .616 .539 1.143
Kyrie Irving 337 .671 .592 1.134
Wesley Matthews 435 .585 .517 1.132
LeBron James 390 .873 .778 1.123
Marc Gasol 396 .665 .594 1.118


The clutch factor in the right column is simply the player's clutch winning percentage divided by his total winning percentage, which yields what we'll call "Clutch Ratio." Chris Bosh leads the way by raising his performance by 26 percent in close spots over the past three years. He's been consistent, too, with Clutch Ratios of 1.286, 1.221 and 1.330 over the past three years, respectively. Nicolas Batum's clutch numbers sparkle, but they're becoming less important because of Lillard's rise. Batum's got an 85.2 true shooting percentage in the clutch this season, but his usage rate is just 8.2 percent.

Who steps it up the least?

While you don't want to be on this list, I still hesitate to suggest these players can't play well in the clutch. It's just that they haven't, at least not over the past three years. It's the same measure as the last list, only sorted from worst to best.



Player cMIN cWin% tWin% CLUTCH
Rudy Gay 367 .377 .512 .737
Blake Griffin 334 .480 .619 .775
Goran Dragic 397 .445 .568 .784
Brandon Jennings 319 .445 .533 .835
Kyle Lowry 436 .536 .639 .840
Nikola Vucevic 304 .465 .549 .847
Serge Ibaka 380 .511 .584 .875
Deron Williams 323 .512 .578 .886
John Wall 437 .562 .610 .922
Darren Collison 323 .478 .517 .925


Rudy Gay ranks last this season with minus-0.33 clutch WARP. He was also at the bottom of the league in 2012-13, though last season he was pretty good. In the bad seasons, his volume doesn't justify his efficiency. He's got a 27.5 usage rate in clutch situations this season but just a 38.3 true shooting percentage. He's 8-for-33 overall this season and 0-for-6 on 3s when it matters most. Some of these names will surprise, though in the cases of Kyle Lowry and John Wall, they're still pretty good, just not as good as the rest of the time. Blake Griffin's drop-off is troubling, but it's also old news: His clutch performance fell off by 44.4 percent from his season mark two years ago. This season it goes up by 8.7 percent, with a primary driver of that being improved foul shooting.
 

Skooby

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The Cosmos
The making of Hassan Whiteside

Film studios would reject the Hassan Whiteside story for being too preposterous.

We're talking about the most treasured prize in the sport -- an athletic 7-footer who can finish alley-oops, rebound and block shots at an elite level -- slipping through the cracks. No NBA team wanted him.

Labels like "immature" and "low basketball IQ" kept him from being taken seriously. There were rumored D-League fights that tarnished his résumé. Whiteside was forced to do two stints in China. There, he told ESPN Radio, he ate pig lungs thinking it was a ribeye steak. Whiteside went to Lebanon -- not once but twice -- to play professionally and try to get his career back on track. There, he witnessed a car bomb explode.

Now he's an overnight sensation on the level of "Linsanity." On Sunday, Whiteside blocked 12 shots in a rousing triple-double performance in 25 minutes against Chicago. A week earlier, he hung 23 points and 16 rebounds on the Los Angeles Clippers in their building, becoming the only player besides DeMarcus Cousins and Kevin Love to do that in the last five seasons.

After setting a franchise record for blocks Sunday, Whiteside's encore Tuesday was a 16-point, 16-rebound outing against the Milwaukee Bucks. The 25-year-old has shown no signs of slowing down.

Whiteside -- whom Dwyane Wade still calls "rook" despite this technically being Whiteside's third season in the league -- already leads the Heat in dunks (32) and blocks (46). The fact that he's enjoying success now in Miami, of all places, doesn't make much sense, either. Four years ago, he couldn't even finish his first workout with the team.

Everyone wants to know: Who is Hassan Whiteside? And how good is he really? Let's take a look.


Off-the-beaten path

Whiteside's story has humble beginnings. His first Heat workout came in 2010 ahead of the draft that saw John Wall go No. 1 overall. The Heat held an early second-round pick and desperately wanted a big man. At that workout in front of Miami staffers, the 20-year-old from Marshall University was exhausted and decided he had had enough. He abruptly walked out of the gym.

A few days later, the Heat selected Dexter Pittman at No. 32. With the 33rd pick in the draft, Sacramento selected Whiteside. Whiteside thought he'd be a lottery pick.

Things didn't work out in Sacramento. Depending on whose story you believe, Whiteside was either the product of a toxic environment full of immature youngsters or the driver of it. So he sought to reset his career in low-level international leagues.

This time last year, Whiteside was playing in the Lebanon Basketball League. If you load the Synergy Sports Technology program -- an ultra-comprehensive video scouting service that every NBA team uses religiously -- you'll find a total of 40 international leagues listed in the catalog. The one Whiteside played in wasn't one of them. Too obscure.

Fast-forward to mid-November of this season, when Whiteside flew to Miami to work out in front of the Heat staff. No one else would see him. The 7-foot big man who looked like the Lakers' Andrew Bynum wowed the audience, one that was once again desperate for a big man to bolster their frontcourt. Afterward, Erik Spoelstra shook his hand and quickly wrote down the following four words in his notebook:


"Starting center next season."

The Heat planned to sign him the very next day, but another team got to him first. Needing a big body after half its team went down with the flu, Memphis inked Whiteside to an emergency contract after he spent time in Memphis' training camp.

Miami, stunned, thought it had blown it.

Turns out Memphis waived him the next day. He wouldn't have gotten minutes anytime soon anyway, not ahead of Marc Gasol and Kosta Koufos. Grizzlies VP of basketball operations and former ESPN Insider John Hollinger was blindsided just like everyone else.

"We thought maybe if we worked with him in the D-League, he could become a decent backup center," Hollinger said. "But obviously nobody saw this coming."

So Whiteside went back to the D-League, a place he knew well. Two days later, in front of a sparse crowd of barely 3,000 people, Whiteside put up 24 points, 16 rebounds and four blocks against the Sioux Falls SkyForce. The opponent that night just so happened to be the Heat's D-League affiliate.

The Heat, of course, were watching closely. Message received.

"He kicked our ass, and we signed him later that night," one Heat official said.

Now, he's the Heat's starting center. The plan has been accelerated.

Historic rise, comps

Less than one month after his last D-League call-up, Whiteside was putting up numbers that make you reboot your web browser and run an antivirus program to make sure it's working correctly. A triple-double with 12 blocks in a game? In 25 minutes no less? He alone has completed 13 alley-oop dunks, which already is more than 10 entire squads this season.

The numbers keep popping. Whiteside currently owns the sixth-highest PER in the NBA, just behind Stephen Curry and a smidge ahead of LeBron James. If we translate Whiteside's numbers to a per-36-minute basis, he is putting up averages of 17.2 points, 14.2 rebounds and 5.1 blocks this season. Go pull up Basketball-Reference.com and look at the list of players who have played at least 300 minutes and matched those rates in a season. You'll find the list is a very brief one: Whiteside.

That's it. OK, let's loosen it up. How about lowering it to three blocks? Here's the list of those who have averaged 17-14-3 per 36 minutes in a season: Whiteside, Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Bill Walton. So that's Whiteside and two of the best to ever play the game.

Let's lower the bar again. How about 16-14-3? Three more names: Shaquille O'Neal, Hakeem Olajuwon and Robert Parish. Two Hall of Famers and one destined to be one soon.

This is the level of production we're seeing right now from Whiteside. If you don't trust full-season comparisons, that's fair. We can just look at the first 19 games in a season. How many guys, since the NBA StatsCube database started in 1997, can match Whiteside's per-36-minute rates of 17 points, 14 rebounds and five blocks in their first 19 games of a season?

Zero. No one but Whiteside in almost two decades.

If we loosen it up to 16 points, 12 rebounds and three blocks, the following names pop up: O'Neal in 1999-00, the season when he won his only MVP along with his first title; Tim Duncan in 2004-05 when he won a championship and a Finals MVP; Marcus Camby in 2005-06 when he was named first-team all-defense; Dwight Howard in 2008-09 when he won Defensive Player of the Year and went to the Finals; and finally, Whiteside. That's the list.

Actually, I lied. I forgot to mention this one: Shaq's first season in Miami back in 2004-05. About a decade later, Miami found another Shaq -- out of the D-League.

Gigantic Start
Players to average at least 16 points, 12 rebounds and three blocks in his first 19 games of a season (per 36 minutes), since 1997.

Player Season P36 R36 B36
Shaquille O'Neal 1999-00 26.4 12.9 3.1
Tim Duncan 2004-05 23.2 13.2 3.1
Shaquille O'Neal 2004-05 21.0 12.2 3.0
Marcus Camby 2005-06 20.8 13.6 3.9
Dwight Howard 2008-09 17.5 14.0 3.5
Hassan Whiteside 2014-15 17.2 14.2 5.1
On Monday, ESPN Radio's Dan LeBatard asked Whiteside which NBA player he thinks his game resembles the most.

"I'm going to say probably like David Robinson," Whiteside said live to a national audience. "David Robinson or Alonzo Mourning, something around there."

LeBatard responds incredulously with something that amounts to "really?"

"Yes," Whiteside said matter-of-factly.

This might come off as hubris. And to those organizations that labeled him "immature," this is probably registers as "Exhibit A" for what they were talking about earlier in his career. But these are the same organizations are also kicking themselves for choosing guys like Greg Stiemsma orJason Maxiell to fill out the roster instead of Whiteside.

Upon hearing the LeBatard interview, I asked our own Kevin Pelton to run his sophisticated SCHOENE database to find a statistical comp for Whiteside. Sure, I looked at points, rebounds and blocks earlier on Basketball-Reference.com, but Pelton's formula would be much more comprehensive, analyzing every box-score statistic and comparing it to every player-season on record.

Which player's statistics did Whiteside objectively resemble the most?

The top four names: David Robinson. Whiteside's backup, Chris Andersen. Hakeem Olajuwon. And you guessed it, Alonzo Mourning.

Oh.

Outlook

This is where we have to pump the brakes. Whiteside is not a lock for the Hall of Fame. However, his production right now is on that level. In some ways, it is statistically off-the-charts.

Remember Jeremy Lin's stretch of Linsanity? He posted a 23.3 PER after 19 games. Whiteside is currently at 27.0. So even if Linsanity seems like the closest thing to what we're witnessing now, Whiteside's performance is decidedly superior from a numbers standpoint. The guy is shooting 65.3 percent and less than half of those are dunks.

Skeptics will call him Jerome James 2.0, nothing more than a flash in the pan. James went on a similar 11-game tear in the 2005 playoffs and the Knicks reflexively gave him a five-year, $30 million contract that will live in infamy among basketball circles. But James was 29 then and wasn't displaying nearly the type of skill set that Whiteside exhibits now. Whiteside is four years younger, in shape and isn't in a contract year.


That's the crazy thing. Whiteside is under a two-year contract that will pay him just $1.1 million next season. He's on track to become the biggest bargain in the league.

There will be rough patches. And it could start Friday against Tyson Chandler. The Heat will be without Dwyane Wade, who has fed more Whiteside buckets than any Miami player (13). And the Heat could be without Wade for weeks, so they'll have to find other ways to get Whiteside the ball. Rest assured, it won't be too difficult; Whiteside has a 9-6 standing reach.

"He's a bigger, younger Tyson Chandler," his teammate Chris Bosh said after Thursday's practice.

Above all, this is a story of NBA serendipity. Right place, right time, right team. "It's the perfect storm" as Spoelstra calls it. Let's see how long the Heat can ride this one out. Shaq, The Admiral, Zo, Chandler -- who knows. The Heat will take it, and after about a dozen stints around the world in five years, so will Whiteside. And if he keeps it up, maybe a screenwriter, too.





News and notes

• The All-Star reserves were announced on Thursday night, with two big names being left off out West: DeMarcus Cousins and Damian Lillard. Another tough go for Cousins, who last season recorded the highest PER in NBA history for someone who didn't make it to the All-Star game (26.1). Now, he owns the second-highest figure at 25.2.

• Lillard will probably get in as Kobe Bryant's replacement. He's the bigger star with the playoff heroics, national TV commercial spots and a signature shoe. Statistically, he had perhaps the strongest case outside of James Harden and Stephen Curry. Lillard currently ranks third in WAR, the real plus-minus metric that accounts for playing time. Get him in, Adam Silver.

• The guess here is that Kyle Korver will make it in as Wade's replacement. Wade hurt his hamstring on Tuesday night, and there are indications he could be out for weeks rather than days. Because of the extended break, keeping Wade out until after the All-Star break would give him almost a month off and just six games missed. The Heat could use a backup 2 now, huh?

• Plugging my BIG Number from this week on Rajon Rondo. Still can't believe he's made only one free throw in 2015. A month ago, I asked how many he'd make in a Dallas uniform and put the over/under at 15. He's made five in 19 games with 35 games to go. Ten more left. He better hurry.

• Trivia time: Which player leads the NBA in kicked-ball violations this season? Last week's trivia answer: The Atlanta Hawks have forced the most shot-clock buzzer-beaters (less than 1 second on the shot clock), per NBASavant.com.
 
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