7. QB play was not all that doomed the Arizona Cardinals in their wild-card defeat at Carolina.
Watching the Cardinals with third-stringer Ryan Lindley at quarterback made me wonder whether the team would have been better off with John Skelton, another one of its castoffs at the position; it was that bad.
Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they did not have a running game to keep them competitive against a Panthers team that remains limited offensively. That is one area we should expect Arizona to address during the offseason. The Cardinals simply lack the personnel to run the ball. Their offensive linemen are better pass-blockers than run-blockers. Their tight ends are not effective blockers (a coach who studied the Cardinals said he thought receiver Larry Fitzgerald blocked better than the tight ends). Coach Bruce Arians' offense does not feature a fullback, so there's nothing to gain from that position.
The Cardinals have averaged a league-worst 3.5 yards per carry over the past two seasons and a league-worst 3.8 YPC since 2010.
8. Tom Brady's contract is a living, breathing document that is open to interpretation, sort of like the U.S. Constitution.
Why would Brady allow the Patriots to convert $24 million of fully guaranteed money into conditionally guaranteed money? Rules require teams to deposit fully guaranteed money into escrow accounts, which affects cash flow.
Conditionally guaranteed money carries no such requirement. The $24 million conversion helped the Patriots. Brady received $1 million in annual salary increases in return for the move, which seemed like a small gain.
"That probably means there is more to this than is out there," a longtime contract negotiator said.
What more could be in this for Brady? The answer might not become clear until the next time Brady and the Patriots rework his contract. Extending the deal and restoring those full guarantees would allow Brady to come out ahead while giving New England the short-term cash-flow flexibility every team covets. Patriots owner Robert Kraft doesn't need the money, but like other owners who do not need the money, he operates as though he needs the money. (That is one of the reasons he does not need the money.)
9. Doug Marrone wasn't the only one skeptical of the trade Buffalo made to select receiver Sammy Watkins.
This isn't a knock on Watkins; every team in the league would love to have him on its roster, as he is a star-in-the-making at wide receiver. But the price Buffalo paid in trading to select him makes the Bills less attractive to coaching candidates now that Marrone has opted out of his contract. This team needs a quarterback, but finding one will be tougher after the Bills sent their 2015 first- and fourth-round picks to Cleveland for the right to jump from ninth to fourth in the 2014 order, a move that allowed them to take Watkins.
"Look at the value they could have created with two ones and a [four]," an executive from another team said during the season. "It is replacement cost and opportunity cost. They are missing out. Even if [Watkins] is a great player, they are missing out on the potential to have two really good or two great players. Look at the RG III trade. Even if he were a top-five or top-10 QB, it would be hard to justify."
Washington and Atlanta both sacrificed team depth in bold moves up the draft board to select highly talented players. The Redskins made the move for Griffin, while the Falcons made the move for Julio Jones. Both teams lack depth as a result, one reason both teams' head coaches (Mike Shanahan and Mike Smith) could not win enough to keep their jobs. The Bills now head into the 2015 offseason needing a quarterback, something the Falcons already had and the Redskins were moving to get.
"The Bills should have realized there were two other highly talented receivers on that board and they could have gotten one of the three, including Odell Beckham," a longtime executive said. "It comes down to price versus the number of players who approximate the guy you really want to get, and then also knowing the context of the current system, which essentially makes a first-round pick an asset you control for up to seven years. There is some thought now that you do not give up a 'one' unless [he is] a franchise player at a position critical to winning."
10. This Cincinnati defeat in the playoffs belongs in a separate category from previous ones.
Blaming Andy Dalton for the Bengals' latest playoff defeat is so 2013. Dalton is what he is: a third-tier quarterback who came in 19th overall when I polled 26 coaches and evaluators before the season. A former general manager put it this way at the time: "With Dalton, if he is your quarterback for 10 years, you'll go to the playoffs five times and say he's a good QB. But is he physically gifted enough to win it if you have to throw it?"
2013-14 Bengals Year-Over-Year Performance
Year 2013 2014
Defensive EPA 2nd 15th
PPG allowed 5th 12th
QBR allowed 4th 8th
Offensive EPA 15th 18th
QBR 13th 18th
The Bengals know what they have, which is why they tried to become more of a running team. Dalton averaged 32.5 dropbacks per game, down from 39.9 in 2013. His QBR score was 55.8, about the same as it was in 2013 (55.2). The difference for the Bengals was in their defense, which went from consistently dominant to unreliable even though the schedule was favorable.
The Bengals, like other teams without top-tier quarterbacks, need their defense to carry much of the load. That was true last season, it was true this season and it will be true next season as well.
Watching the Cardinals with third-stringer Ryan Lindley at quarterback made me wonder whether the team would have been better off with John Skelton, another one of its castoffs at the position; it was that bad.
Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they did not have a running game to keep them competitive against a Panthers team that remains limited offensively. That is one area we should expect Arizona to address during the offseason. The Cardinals simply lack the personnel to run the ball. Their offensive linemen are better pass-blockers than run-blockers. Their tight ends are not effective blockers (a coach who studied the Cardinals said he thought receiver Larry Fitzgerald blocked better than the tight ends). Coach Bruce Arians' offense does not feature a fullback, so there's nothing to gain from that position.
The Cardinals have averaged a league-worst 3.5 yards per carry over the past two seasons and a league-worst 3.8 YPC since 2010.
8. Tom Brady's contract is a living, breathing document that is open to interpretation, sort of like the U.S. Constitution.
Why would Brady allow the Patriots to convert $24 million of fully guaranteed money into conditionally guaranteed money? Rules require teams to deposit fully guaranteed money into escrow accounts, which affects cash flow.
Conditionally guaranteed money carries no such requirement. The $24 million conversion helped the Patriots. Brady received $1 million in annual salary increases in return for the move, which seemed like a small gain.
"That probably means there is more to this than is out there," a longtime contract negotiator said.
What more could be in this for Brady? The answer might not become clear until the next time Brady and the Patriots rework his contract. Extending the deal and restoring those full guarantees would allow Brady to come out ahead while giving New England the short-term cash-flow flexibility every team covets. Patriots owner Robert Kraft doesn't need the money, but like other owners who do not need the money, he operates as though he needs the money. (That is one of the reasons he does not need the money.)
9. Doug Marrone wasn't the only one skeptical of the trade Buffalo made to select receiver Sammy Watkins.
This isn't a knock on Watkins; every team in the league would love to have him on its roster, as he is a star-in-the-making at wide receiver. But the price Buffalo paid in trading to select him makes the Bills less attractive to coaching candidates now that Marrone has opted out of his contract. This team needs a quarterback, but finding one will be tougher after the Bills sent their 2015 first- and fourth-round picks to Cleveland for the right to jump from ninth to fourth in the 2014 order, a move that allowed them to take Watkins.
"Look at the value they could have created with two ones and a [four]," an executive from another team said during the season. "It is replacement cost and opportunity cost. They are missing out. Even if [Watkins] is a great player, they are missing out on the potential to have two really good or two great players. Look at the RG III trade. Even if he were a top-five or top-10 QB, it would be hard to justify."
Washington and Atlanta both sacrificed team depth in bold moves up the draft board to select highly talented players. The Redskins made the move for Griffin, while the Falcons made the move for Julio Jones. Both teams lack depth as a result, one reason both teams' head coaches (Mike Shanahan and Mike Smith) could not win enough to keep their jobs. The Bills now head into the 2015 offseason needing a quarterback, something the Falcons already had and the Redskins were moving to get.
"The Bills should have realized there were two other highly talented receivers on that board and they could have gotten one of the three, including Odell Beckham," a longtime executive said. "It comes down to price versus the number of players who approximate the guy you really want to get, and then also knowing the context of the current system, which essentially makes a first-round pick an asset you control for up to seven years. There is some thought now that you do not give up a 'one' unless [he is] a franchise player at a position critical to winning."
10. This Cincinnati defeat in the playoffs belongs in a separate category from previous ones.
Blaming Andy Dalton for the Bengals' latest playoff defeat is so 2013. Dalton is what he is: a third-tier quarterback who came in 19th overall when I polled 26 coaches and evaluators before the season. A former general manager put it this way at the time: "With Dalton, if he is your quarterback for 10 years, you'll go to the playoffs five times and say he's a good QB. But is he physically gifted enough to win it if you have to throw it?"
2013-14 Bengals Year-Over-Year Performance
Year 2013 2014
Defensive EPA 2nd 15th
PPG allowed 5th 12th
QBR allowed 4th 8th
Offensive EPA 15th 18th
QBR 13th 18th
The Bengals know what they have, which is why they tried to become more of a running team. Dalton averaged 32.5 dropbacks per game, down from 39.9 in 2013. His QBR score was 55.8, about the same as it was in 2013 (55.2). The difference for the Bengals was in their defense, which went from consistently dominant to unreliable even though the schedule was favorable.
The Bengals, like other teams without top-tier quarterbacks, need their defense to carry much of the load. That was true last season, it was true this season and it will be true next season as well.
