Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)
- Thread starter the cool
- Start date
All-Star roster surprises and snubs
The MLB All-Star Game rosters always spur controversy for who's out and who's in, but also because there aren't clear rules on what makes an All-Star in the first place. I've never bought the maxim that it should just be the players who are having the best current seasons, because that's the ideal way to leave out a few legitimate stars while including a bunch of guys who had two fluky hot months.
But that philosophy also ignores the original purpose of the game, one that still matters today: This is Major League Baseball's one night to get all of its best players on one field in front of a worldwide audience. The focus should be on getting as many of the game's current and emerging stars into the game, and if that means a one-hit wonder gets left off the roster, so be it.
With that in mind, here are my main guidelines when critiquing the All-Star rosters: No player should go to the game for a first half that might easily be a fluke, but the sport does have a vested interest in getting a few rising stars into the game so they can play before a national audience. Of course, you don't need those guidelines to realize there's an enormous mistake on the AL roster. …
American League
Scott Kazmir or Mark Buehrle over Chris Sale: These two player selections are the dumbest of anything this year, and there's a fair amount of ridiculousness going on for both rosters, so the bar is high. Sale would be second in the league in ERA if he qualified, just .05 behind leader Felix Hernandez. He's sixth in the league in WAR and tenth in rWAR, despite having 20 fewer innings pitched than any of the pitchers ahead of him. He's 8-1 if you actually care about something as useless as a pitcher's won-lost record. And Sale was a top five pitcher in the league last year, too.
Did the players just look at the ERA rankings and forget Sale because he doesn't have enough innings to qualify (he's one inning short) for the chart? Is it really that hard to remember a guy who is a threat to win the Cy Young award if he can hold up for 200 innings?
Kazmir/Buehrle over Corey Kluber: Sale's omission is infuriating, while Kluber's is more puzzling. He's eighth in the league in ERA, fifth by fWAR (which relies on FIP rather than actual runs allowed) and sixth in strikeouts. He and Sale are on the “final five” ballot for the AL, but both guys should be in the game outright, and assuming Sale runs away with that vote, I'm hoping manager John Farrell picks Kluber for the inevitable injury opening.
Victor Martinez over Ian Kinsler and Kyle Seager: Kinsler is third in the AL in WAR this year and Seager is seventh, yet both missed the All-Star team, even though they have performed at All-Star level before. Granted, it was a few years back in Kinsler's case, but it's not as if he's a career minor leaguer having some weird half-year fluke. Their exclusion isn't about any one specific selection ahead of them, but a host of players marginally worse than those two filling out the roster.
Sending two DHs is probably the worst choice, as the players added Martinez -- a good player having an outstanding season -- to the fan-selected Nelson Cruz. The team doesn't need multiple DHs, and Seager could potentially move to second base if the need arose (although he has played it only sparsely in the majors, and not since 2012).
I would also have taken either of these guys over Farrell's choice of Brandon Moss, probably the fourth-best first baseman in the league and a below-average defender in the outfield corners. Edwin Encarnacion's injury should let Farrell get one of these two deserving candidates into the game.
While I think four relievers is too many for an All-Star roster, the players did pick three of the best in the league, including the top two by fWAR, and Farrell added Twins closer Glen Perkins, a very good reliever who happens to pitch for the host team. Compared to the NL pitching staff, this batch of relievers looks completely rational.
And finally, it's a bit of a shame that Jeff Samardzija will miss out on the game just because he was traded the day before the selections were announced. Even if he can't pitch, he should be allowed to attend and participate as a full-fledged All-Star, even though it'll be in his new team's uniform.
National League
Devin Mesoraco over Buster Posey: Yeah, you wouldn't want one of the 10, maybe five most recognizable stars in baseball, an MVP winner who's produced 2 WAR this year, in the All-Star Game. Better to put Mesoraco, a solid player having his first-ever productive season in two-thirds of the at-bats that Posey has had, into the game.
This is the ultimate incarnation of the myth that the All-Star Game is supposed to be only about performance in the current season. It's not. Stars aren't determined in 70-game stretches. Posey is still a top-10 player in the National League, and the sport in general is worse off for his omission in favor of a player who has played like an All-Star for only 50 games.
Aramis Ramirez over Anthony Rendon: Ramirez isn't playing like an All-Star this year, and he didn't play like one last year either, even when he wasn't missing half the season due to injury. He's 13th among NL third basemen by rWAR this year and a below-average defender at third who doesn't get on base.
Third base is weak in the NL in general, but Rendon ranks second in the league in both versions of WAR, is out-hitting Ramirez across the board, and plays above-average defense. He's a budding star, a former top-10 pick who's breaking out this year now that he's back at his natural position. He belongs here over the underperforming Ramirez and even over Matt Carpenter, who also has taken a step back since what will likely end up being his career-best year in 2013.
Josh Harrison over a whole lot of players: Harrison is the antithesis of “All-Star,” the Mike Sharperson of this game, except that Sharperson was the token Dodger in a year when they had no real candidates, while Harrison is here alongside Andrew McCutchen, one of the best players inPittsburgh Pirates history.
I can understand Jason Heyward -- whose rWAR is third and fWAR is fifth in the NL, but whose success is built largely on his superior defense -- not making it. But where's potential Rookie of the Year Billy Hamilton, with performance that merits inclusion, but also a specific skill that makes him a good tactical weapon if Mike Matheny actually wants to manage like this game counts?
Is there ever a situation where you'd rather have Josh Harrison in the lineup or at the plate than, say, Justin Upton? If you just want another bat on the bench, how about Anthony Rizzo, who joins Upton and Rendon in the “final five” voting?
I can only assume Harrison is here as some sort of super-utility candidate, forced on Matheny by the league, because I'd hate to think the Cards skipper believes Harrison, who had a .280 career OBP coming into 2014, was actually worthy of selection based on 70 wildly out-of-character games.
Tyson Ross over Stephen Strasburg: Ross is the token Padre, and that's a stupid, stupid rule; if you're a team GM or owner and don't want to see your club shut out of the All-Star Game, try getting better players. Meanwhile, the NL leader in strikeouts gets left home, and it's not like this is Strasburg's first time having success in the majors.
He has gotten very little help from his defense, with a .348 BABIP, but he's also been uncharacteristically bad this year with men on base, giving up a .311/.354/.439 line that's well above his career norm. If you're looking only at 2014 and only at ERA (or ERA and won-lost record), he doesn't look like an All-Star. If you're looking at the things he can control, and at his history beyond this season, he clearly belongs. And he has the fame factor in his corner, too; people might tune in just to watch him pitch.
I might also have tried to sneak Hyun-Jin Ryu on to the roster; he's top-10 in the NL in fWAR, getting great results with his new curveball, and having a Korean-born player in the game would give the game's ratings in Korea an enormous boost.
Middle relievers over starters: Every year now, we get middle relievers having fluky first halves in the game, when once upon a time it was all about the best starting pitchers in each league. Pat Neshek has been a great story this year, but should he be in the game on the basis of 35 innings -- when he was a replacement-level reliever last year -- over Ryu or Strasburg or Henderson Alvarez?
What about Tony Watson, whose 0.89 ERA doesn't truly reflect how he's pitched this year, and certainly isn't sustainable beyond this small sample? No one is turning on the game to watch middle relievers, who as a class tend to be fungible with short-lived peaks, over better and better-knownstarters who will also likely be just as effective when working in a one-inning stint. Five relievers on an All-Star roster is at least two too many.
Title windows for NE, DEN, PIT
Sustained success in the NFL, especially when compared to its major North American professional sports counterparts (NBA, NHL and MLB), is arduous to achieve.
The Atlanta Falcons slid from the top seed in the NFC in 2012 to the basement of the NFC South in 2013. The Washington Redskins went from being a middling squad to the playoffs in 2012, only to regress back to the bottom of the NFC East last season.
Windows don't close gently in the NFL. They often collapse.
In evaluating teams whose window could soon shut, we need to establish whose is currently open. For that, we turned to the top of our Future Power Rankings list, which will be unveiled Thursday on ESPN Insider.
There are many contributing factors to a team dropping in the standings from one season to the next: crippling injuries and difficult schedules (especially following a year with a favorable schedule) are among them. But for the purpose of this exercise, we're not going to predict or project injuries. They're unpredictable. (Case in point: A healthy Andrew Luckkeeps the Colts among the Super Bowl contenders for the next 10-12 years. A major injury to Luck sends them spiraling toward a 6-10 season based on the talent around him.)
The bottom line for teams whose windows close after sustained success is that it almost always derives from two factors: a change (injury, free agency departure, etc.) in quarterback, or the exposure of mediocre talent surrounding a franchise quarterback. With that in mind, let's dig deeper on three candidates whose window could close in the next three years.
New England Patriots
The skinny: Injuries terrorized the Patriots in 2013. Tight end Rob Gronkowski, linebacker Jerod Mayo, nose tackle Vince Wilfork, right tackle Sebastian Vollmer and linebacker Brandon Spikes all finished the season on injured reserve. That's not even an all-encompassing list. And yet, the prevailing narrative as the Patriots marched on to their third straight AFC Championship Game was that with head coach Bill Belichick and quarterback Tom Brady, they're always in the hunt.
There's often a desire -- it makes for great sports radio fodder -- to decipher just who is most responsible for the Patriots' success during their unmatched run in the Belichick/Brady era. The truth is, both are among the very best to ever approach their craft. Both have played instrumental roles. But while the shelf life on Belichick's contributions extends seemingly until his desire to coach fades, Brady will be 37 when this season begins. Yes, he remains among the best quarterbacks in football -- I'd have no trouble calling him the best -- but just as team windows close quickly, players can similarly regress in just one season's time. Brett Favre was brilliant in throwing 33 touchdown passes and just seven interceptions (a career low for years in which he was a full-time player) during his penultimate season in 2009. The next year was far less kind, with Favre throwing 11 touchdown passes and 19 interceptions.
Would we count on Brady regressing in 2014? Hardly, he is as meticulous in his preparation as any player Belichick has coached. But it's fathomable that his play will slide at some point before he reaches 40.
And if it does, where does that leave the Patriots? The current quarterback situation includes Ryan Mallett and second-round pick Jimmy Garoppolo, but neither has a legitimate NFL résumé.
The rest of the roster isn't weak, certainly not for the present. (It received a cumulative 79.25 grade from our experts contributing to the Future Power Rankings, sixth best among all teams.) But among the Patriots' younger building blocks, many aren't under contract past 2015 (cornerback Darrelle Revis, 2014 with a 2015 team option that is unlikely to be used; safety Devin McCourty, 2014; running backs Shane Vereen and Stevan Ridley, 2014; offensive tackle Nate Solder, 2015). The point is, Brady and Belichick lift this roster. If one half of the powerful tag team isn't in the mix, there's reason for concern.
What could keep them in it: As stated, a Brady regression is far from a guarantee. He's under contract for four more seasons, and while there's little precedent for quarterbacks playing into their 40s, he's a rare player.
Moreover, while the sample size is small, we've seen the Patriots without Brady in 2008, and they won 11 games. Even if it was against a watered-down schedule, that's hard to do in the NFL. Belichick is the preeminent coach of his generation (perhaps of all time), and the organization is strong in all the foundational positions. (Their front office ranked seventh overall in our FPR, and the coaching staff ranked first.) Few teams adapt to change better than New England, and if Belichick stays in it for the long haul, the Patriots cannot be counted out.
Denver Broncos
The skinny: The argument as to why the Broncos' window will soon close profiles much of the same as the Patriots: What does life after Peyton Manning look like? The team's aggressive offseason spending, led by signing cornerback Aqib Talib, outside linebacker DeMarcus Ware and safety T.J. Ward, suggests a win-now mentality.
Manning had one of the finest seasons for any quarterback in NFL history in 2013, coasting to yet another MVP award. But unlike Brady, there were aspects to his game where his age did show. The accuracy was there, but his arm strength has clearly subsided since major neck surgeries during the 2011 season. If the residual effects continue to mount, Manning's play could regress. While we wouldn't count on it, Manning already has dealt with -- deflected, really -- questions about retirement for multiple seasons.
Beyond Manning, the Broncos have as much certainty at quarterback as the Patriots do past Brady: none. Brock Osweiler was a second-round pick in 2012, but his pro track record is bare.
Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, Von Miller, Chris Harris and Terrance Knighton are all among the young blue-chippers who will need new contracts before the end of 2015. While the team has already begun the process of tending to some of that business (Demaryius Thomas reportedly has been offered a new five-year deal), shrewd cap management will be needed. Those players are among the reasons why the Broncos' roster, outside of the quarterback, ranked third in our FPR.
What could keep them in it: John Elway, the Broncos' football czar, is still a relative newcomer to the front office scene, but he's already displayed a sharp eye for talent, especially on the free-agent level. (It's still too soon to evaluate his draft classes comprehensively.) Guard Louis Vasquez, defensive end Shaun Phillips and Knighton are among the wise pickups by Elway on the open market, contributing to the Broncos' front office ranking third in the NFL. We'd also contend that the talent surrounding Manning that is under contract for three or more seasons trumps that of Brady's (as our group FPR confirms). And, of course, Manning could keep up his pace of play beyond the three seasons for which he remains under contract.
Pittsburgh Steelers
The skinny: Underrated. That's how we'd describe quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. But he's currently under contract through just 2015. How likely would it be for Big Ben to bolt on the open market? We'd guess it's extremely unlikely, but we can't ignore it.
And, unlike the two teams previously mentioned, the Steelers aren't coming off a playoff season. They nearly snuck into the playoffs last year, but they entered December at 5-8 before closing with three straight wins.
The cap-strapped Steelers were hardly active on the free-agent market this offseason, and while they alleviated some of the short-term woes with contract restructures, they'll continue to face difficult decisions on key veterans in future offseasons.
Roethlisberger, if retained long term, is less likely to regress sooner than Brady and Manning because he's only 32. But while we don't know just how good the talent around Brady and Manning would perform with a replacement quarterback, we can assert that the Steelers' supporting cast doesn't stack up to either of the other two teams being discussed. Our panel of FPR voters came to an overall rating of 73.75 for the rest of the Steelers' roster outside of the quarterback, 15th overall in the NFL. That might even be too generous.
The offense is one deep in proven receivers (Antonio Brown), the offensive line remains a work in progress and the defense was practically devoid of playmakers in 2013 (44 combined interceptions and sacks was fourth fewest in the NFL). The Steelers look faster on defense after this most recent draft, but will that be enough to turn around their alarmingly poor inability to force turnovers?
Lastly, consider the division. While the AFC East includes two of the three lowest-ranked teams in FPR (Buffalo and Miami), and the AFC West includes our overall bottom dweller (Oakland), the Steelers are one of three AFC North teams to check in among our top 13 (Baltimore and Cincinnati included). It'll be tough sledding for every team in that division in the near future.
What could keep them in it: Historical context doesn't always carry weight, but the Steelers are the model NFL franchise in terms of consistent winning. They've endured just five losing seasons since 1972, with the most recent coming in 2003.
While our FPR did not include a separate ranking for ownership, the Rooney family has laid the foundation for the Steelers' success. While the NFL is growing into an increasingly knee-jerk reaction league as it pertains to coach and front office turnover, the Rooneys have long understood the value of stability at the top. Current head coach Mike Tomlin is one of just three men to patrol the Pittsburgh sideline since 1969. The Browns have had three head coaches since December 31, 2012.
But, as previously mentioned, the leg up on sustained success that the Steelers have over the Patriots and Broncos is Roethlisberger being 32. President Art Rooney II made no bones about the team's desire earlier this offseason, declaring: "We've got to have Ben retire as a Steeler. There's no doubt about that." It won't come cheap, but a long-term extension for Roethlisberger keeps the Steelers solidified under center. No position matters more to success in the NFL.
The following error occurred:
You must spread reputation to at least 30 other user(s) before you can give reputation to Skooby again.
You must spread reputation to at least 30 other user(s) before you can give reputation to Skooby again.
954UAlreadyknow
All Star
Most GMs wouldn't trade Wiggins
New Cleveland Cavaliers coach David Blatt maintains that No. 1 pick Andrew Wiggins isn't going anywhere, not even in a package that would return proven All-Star big man Kevin Love.
The 19-year-old Wiggins has tremendous upside, as has been evident in glimpses thus far throughout his two summer league appearances. His young legs and athleticism could be an ideal fit alongside LeBron James, and LBJ also could help him with the killer instinct many feel is lacking in his game.
However, there's little doubt that the 6-foot-10 Love would allow LeBron's Cavs to make a legitimate run at an NBA championship sooner. The skilled big man can score in the post and also beyond the 3-point line, is one of the game's top rebounders and also is one of the elite passing big men.
The 25-year-old Love averaged 26.1 points and 12.5 rebounds per game last season while Wiggins has yet to play in an official NBA contest.
We posed the question to a dozen NBA folks whether they would move Wiggins in a deal for Love. There would have to be other assets (i.e. Anthony Bennett and Dion Waiters) moved to Minnesota as well as Wiggins, but our focus was Wiggins and Love.
You'll be surprised by the results -- which worked out to be 7-5 in favor of keeping Wiggins.
Wiggins support
"Love is so overrated. He's never won," one NBA executive said. "I'd wait if I was Cleveland. I wouldn't involve Wiggins in a trade for Love."
"Kevin is a perimeter big," added one coach. "He needs to have the ball on multiple possessions to be really effective. It will be very difficult for a first-year coach to divide possessions between LeBron, Kyrie and Love."
"Wiggins is going to be really good in time," added an NBA general manager. "Right now he can shoot and defend. Playing off LeBron and Kyrie [Irving] will take a lot of the pressure off him in the present. He could become a go-to scorer in a few years."
"Star potential on rookie scale deal for four years," another GM added.
"I feel like Wiggins may only be a year or so away from being a legit contributor," one front-office executive said. "And Wiggins is cheap, so you are able to add more. Love is gonna cost a ton."
Love support
"Why wait on Wiggins when Love makes them better now," one assistant GM said. "And if you don't get Love now, he's going to be a Laker next summer."
"I definitely wouldn't want to, but might have to," one high-ranking NBA executive said. "I wouldn't want to because Wiggins has a chance to be one of the top five players in the league and you could be set for 10 years. However, I might do it because Love helps you win a title in the next couple."
"I know what Love can do. He's a proven commodity, plus his game meshes with LeBron's," one NBA scout said.
"Without a doubt. Cleveland would be a top-five team in the NBA and the top team in the East -- with Chicago and Indiana a close second and third," an NBA exec said.
"Cleveland becomes the favorite to win it all with the trio of LeBron, Kyrie and Love. With Wiggins, it's going to take time. Sure, he'll give you a terrific defender -- but now you have that with LeBron."
Young talent
Wiggins scored 18 points in his summer league debut, a matchup against No. 2 overall pick Jabari Parker. Wiggins was 7-of-18 from the field and just 1-of-8 from beyond the arc.
Parker was 5-of-11 from the field, 7-of-11 from the line and finished with 17 points and nine rebounds.
Here were some thoughts from a couple of NBA guys watching from the stands:
On Wiggins:
• Great step-back jumper.
• Very good standstill stroke from 18 feet.
• Crashes the boards like a fiend.
• Decent ballhandling skills, but must improve in that area.
• Overall, very good first showing. Sky's the limit.
"I thought he was aggressive on both ends. He's more ahead defensively than offensively. His handle needs to improve, but he attacked the rim with abandon -- which wasn't always the case this past season in college. His jumper is a work in progress, but was productive. Thought it was a good first game."
On Parker:
• Very good in the post, will be a handful to guard there.
• Was excellent in transition ... made some very difficult finishes at the rim.
• Streaky from the outside ... solid range from 15 to 18.
• Sneaky athleticism ... almost had the free-throw line dunk. I didn't know he could do that.
"He's a scorer. He pressed tonight, but made a couple of 'wow' moves. He played in a bit of a vacuum. He's much better when he's getting in a flow."
- Most prospect-loaded teams in CBB
However, it’s not quite as simple to figure out who ranks immediately behind Kentucky.
Want to know where the NBA scouts will be this season? Here’s a checklist of the top dozen teams for 2014-15 in terms of NBA prospects:
1. Kentucky Wildcats
It’s the Wildcats and then everyone else. John Calipari’s team is so loaded with NBA prospects that Marcus Lee, who could become a first-round pick at some point, may have difficulty getting onto the court for meaningful minutes in the upcoming season. The most talented player on the team is 6-foot-11 freshman Karl Towns, but the Cats also have a few more frontline guys who could go in the first round with Willie Cauley-Stein, Trey Lyles and Dakari Johnson.
Holdovers Andrew and Aaron Harrison are potential first-rounders, and both shooting guard Devin Booker and undersized point guard Tyler Ulis have a shot to play at the next level (though Ulis may be hindered by his size). We haven’t even discussed Alex Poythress, who has seen his stock fall but still has a chance to play in the NBA.
2. Kansas Jayhawks
The Jayhawks lost the top overall pick in Andrew Wiggins and also the No. 3 pick, Joel Embiid, but Bill Self and KU will reload by adding imposing power forward Cliff Alexander and long and athletic wing Kelly Oubre. Self also has another pair of prospects in holdovers Wayne Selden and Perry Ellis. All four guys have a shot to be first-rounders -- with Alexander and Oubre potentially lottery picks. Another guy on the team who has a chance to crack the next level is 6-foot-6 sophomore wing Brannen Greene, a player with good length and the ability to shoot the ball.
3. Duke Blue Devils
The Blue Devils lost a pair of first-rounders in Jabari Parker and Rodney Hood, but Mike Krzyzewski will add a couple of high-level NBA prospects in big man Jahlil Okafor and point guard Tyus Jones. Okafor has advanced skill to go with a stout 6-foot-11 frame and could wind up being the No. 1 pick next June. Jones, while not an elite-level athlete, is a pure point guard who has already made an impression on the NBA guys with his ability to run a team and make his teammates better. The Blue Devils also have a few wings who should play at the next level in junior Rasheed Sulaimon and freshman Justice Winslow. Fellow frosh Grayson Allen could have a shot down the road as well.
4. Arizona Wildcats
Sean Miller and the Wildcats lost lottery pick Aaron Gordon and also saw Nick Johnson depart, but there will still be plenty of NBA-caliber talent in Tucson this season. Freshman Stanley Johnson is a likely one-and-done, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson could become a lottery pick and both Brandon Ashley and Kaleb Tarczewski have a chance to go in the first round. There's also the wild card of 7-foot Serbian freshman Dusan Ristic.
5. North Carolina Tar Heels
There may not be a sure-fire lottery pick -- or even a lock first-rounder -- on the roster, but Roy Williams has plenty of guys who have a chance to play in the league. The top candidates are junior combo guard Marcus Paige and skilled freshman forward Justin Jackson. However, forward Brice Johnson and athletic freshman wing Theo Pinson have a shot, as do Joel James, J.P. Tokoto, Isaiah Hicks, Kennedy Meeks and Joel Berry. There may not be topline quality here, but there is quantity.
6. Louisville Cardinals
Montrezl Harrell is a likely lottery pick with another year of development and sophomore guard Terry Rozier should thrive with the departure of Russ Smith. I’m not certain if there’s another potential NBA guy on the team, but guys like sophomore big man Mangok Mathiang and freshmen Quentin Snider, Shaqquan Aaron, Chinanu Onuaku, Anas Osama Mahmoud and Jaylen Johnson could all have a chance in time. It’s just too early to tell with those guys at this juncture.
7. Texas Longhorns
Myles Turner has a chance to be a high lottery pick with his combination of skill, length and potential, and fellow big man Cameron Ridley is also on the NBA scouting radar due to his size, girth and ability to score on the block and also alter shots. Longhorns sophomore guard Isaiah Taylor came out of nowhere last season as a freshman and will continue to be monitored by NBA folks.
8. Florida Gators
Billy Donovan has a potential lottery pick in athletic 6-foot-10 big man Chris Walker -- and there’s more potential NBA talent on the roster. Point guard Kasey Hill has a chance, as do wing shooter Michael Frazier II, versatile forward Dorian Finney-Smith and freshman forward Devin Robinson. Walker is exceptionally talented and now he’ll have a full season to develop.
9. Wisconsin Badgers
The Badgers have a pair of potential first-rounders in Sam Dekker and Frank Kaminsky. Dekker has great length and all the tools and is coming off a terrific showing at the LeBron James Skills Academy, and just needs to show more consistency and aggressiveness. Kaminsky, a skilled big man, came out of nowhere a year ago and likely would have been an early second-rounder if he had opted to leave Madison after last season. I also really like Nigel Hayes, but he’s likely an overseas player due to his lack of size.
10. LSU Tigers
The Tigers have a pair of talented big men who could go in the first round with skilled 6-foot-10 Jarrell Martin and 6-foot-9 power forward Jordan Mickey. Junior college point guard Josh Gray, who is a terrific ballhandler and can get into the lane, could also have a chance, as could freshman Elbert Robinson, a 7-foot, 290-pounder who needs to get into shape.
11. Stanford Cardinal
The Cardinal have a few guys with a shot to make the league, and the best may be skilled and long wing Anthony Brown. Chasson Randle also has a chance, as well as freshmen big men Reid Travis and Michael Humphrey. Johnny Dawkins has as much overall talent as he’s had since arriving in Palo Alto.
12. UCLA Bruins
The Bruins are difficult to evaluate because their most talented players will be freshmen. Holdover Norman Powell has a chance, but the class of Kevon Looney, Jonah Bolden and Thomas Welsh, in addition to Isaac Hamilton (he sat out last season), may all have a chance to play at the next level. Looney is long and can really rebound, Bolden is a skilled wing and Welsh is a legit 7-footer.
Ten 2015 NBA draft sleepers
Everyone is well aware of Duke's Jahlil Okafor by now, the skilled big man who could wind up going No. 1 in next June's NBA draft. Most know about point guard Emmanuel Mudiay, who announced earlier in the week that he's heading overseas instead of going to SMU.
But how about some 2015 NBA draft sleepers, players who either aren't getting enough respect on the mock drafts -- or ones who aren't even in the equation at all. Some aren't even among colleague Chad Ford's initial 2015 rankings of the top 100 prospects.
Here are 10 players to keep an eye on, players I feel are bound to move up as the 2014-15 college hoops season progresses.
1. Isaiah Whitehead, 6-foot-4, 200, SG, Fr., Seton Hall Pirates
Chad Ford's Rank: NR
Few have him on their draft boards, but the Lincoln High (N.Y.) product (the same school that produced Lance Stephenson and Sebastian Telfair) is a big-time scoring wing. He is a gifted scorer because of his ability to attack off the dribble and also make shots from the perimeter. Don't be surprised if he puts up hefty numbers at Seton Hall and bolts after one season.
2. Terry Rozier, 6-2, 190, G, Soph., Louisville Cardinals
Chad Ford's Rank: 39
I've been higher on the athletic 6-2 combo guard than most for the past year -- and feel he has a chance to go in the first round due to his ability to get into the lane and make things happen both for himself and teammates. He was inconsistent as a freshman, but it was difficult playing with Russ Smith and Chris Jones. Rozier will need to be a point guard at the next level, and he'll need to develop that aspect of his game as a sophomore this season.
3. Rashad Vaughn, 6-5, 205, SG, Fr., UNLV Rebels
Chad Ford's Rank: NR
He's a big-time scorer who could lead Dave Rice's team in scoring as a freshman. The Minnesota native played his prep school ball down the road at Findlay and has the length and scoring ability to attract NBA types. He can get to the basket and also shoot it from deep. He's got some Bradley Beal in him, although he's not nearly the passer the Washington Wizards wing is.
4. Trey Lyles, 6-10, 230, PF, Fr., Kentucky Wildcats
Chad Ford's Rank: 37
His limited athleticism has some NBA guys concerned, but he's got the package of size, skill and versatility in which I'd be surprised if he doesn't go in the first round -- at some point. UK is loaded this season, especially up front, so he may have to wait his turn.
5. Anthony Brown, 6-7, 210, SG, Sr., Stanford Cardinal
Chad Ford's Rank: NR
He was finally healthy last season and showed that he is one of the best perimeter shooters in the country. He has length and the ability to make shots from deep. That's a combination that NBA guys are looking for right now.
6. Vincent Hunter, 6-8, 200, SF, Soph., UTEP Miners
Chad Ford's Rank: NR
I got my first in-person look at the long and versatile Detroit native this past week at the LeBron James Skills Academy in Las Vegas, and he didn't disappoint. He's 6-8, can handle the ball and also can pass and defend. The question for me is whether he'll improve his perimeter shot enough.
7. D'Angelo Russell, 6-4, 185, G, Fr., Ohio State Buckeyes
Chad Ford's Rank: NR
He's a combo guard who can play with or without the ball in his hands. The lefty can make shots from deep, can handle the ball well and is also quick enough to get to the basket and strong enough to finish around the hoop. The Buckeyes are desperate for a scorer, and Russell could quickly emerge as Thad Matta's go-to guy.
8. Daniel Hamilton, 6-6, 175, SG, Fr., Connecticut Huskies
Chad Ford's Rank: NR
The youngest Hamilton brother may be the most talented. He can really score, but it will be interesting to see how many opportunities he gets playing alongside Ryan Boatright and Rodney Purvis. Hamilton needs to work on his shot selection, but he can light it up from deep and is also long and athletic, allowing him to get to the basket and finish above the rim.
9. Perry Ellis, 6-8, 222, F, Jr., Kansas Jayhawks
Chad Ford's Rank: 78
He doesn't wow you with athleticism or his body, but Ellis is so efficient and just grows on you. I'm still undecided whether he can make his way into the first round, but he'll find a spot on an NBA team for years because of his skill set.
10. Devin Robinson, 6-9, 210, F, Fr., Florida Gators
Chad Ford's Rank: NR
The Virginia native is intriguing because of his length, versatility and skill set. He'll have a chance to get significant minutes for Billy Donovan and he has an extremely high ceiling. Robinson can step out and knock down shots, as well as score around the basket. He's got a little Kevin Durant in his game.
Thanks as always One more if u don't mind http://m.espn.go.com/nba/mockdraft?...Lnm"}&ex_cid=InsiderTwitter_Ford_2015BigBoard
Top NBA prospects in Class of 2015
I just got home from attending most of the big events in the July recruiting period -- a time where the top high school players have a chance to be seen for a dozen days in the month by all the college coaches.
NBA guys were also allowed to get a look at some of the top high school players at the LeBron James Skills Academy in Las Vegas early in the month.
We talked to some NBA guys in attendance, college coaches and also used what I saw throughout the month to come up with 12 players who have high NBA potential in the Class of 2015 (eligible for the 2016 NBA draft).
1. Ben Simmons, 6-8, 220, PF, Montverde Academy (Florida)
College:LSU Tigers
He’s a long and skilled Australia native who has already committed to LSU, where his godfather, David, is an assistant coach. Simmons does everything well at this juncture -- except for make shots from beyond the arc. He’s a terrific passer, scores from the mid-range extremely well and defends at a high level. His versatility draws comparisons to a young Lamar Odom.
2. Jaylen Brown, 6-7, 220, SF, Wheeler High (Florida)
College: Undecided
Brown is a well-built power wing who plays with a high motor and also possesses a versatile game. Brown’s biggest strength right now is his ability to drive to the basket and finish around the rim, but his perimeter shot has improved significantly. He’s considering UCLA, Kentucky, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Ohio State, Florida and Texas. There’s no ideal comparison, but he’s got some Kawhi Leonard in his game -- a decent shooter at this stage who plays hard and does just about everything else at a high level.
3. Diamond Stone, 6-10, 255, C, Dominican High (Milwaukee)
College: Undecided
He’s a legit big man who is skilled and can score in the post. Stone possesses good footwork and already has the body at 6-foot-10 and more than 250 pounds. Stone will make a college decision on Nov. 12 -- likely choosing from Wisconsin, Kentucky, Kansas, Marquette and UConn.
4. Skal Labissiere, 6-11, 210, PF, Evangelical Christian (Memphis, Tennessee)
College: Undecided
The Haiti native is extremely skilled for someone his size. He’s very long, can score around the basket and is also a guy who can alter and block shots on the defensive end. The schools in the mix to land Skal are Kentucky, Memphis, Ole Miss, Georgetown and UNC.
5. Malik Newman, 6-3, 185, SG, Callaway High, Jackson, Mississippi
College: Undecided
He’s an athletic scoring wing who attacks the basket and can also shoot it from beyond the arc. His father, Horatio “Big Train” Webster, played at Mississippi State -- but Kentucky, Kansas, UConn, N.C. State and Texas A&M are also in the mix for his services. Newman has some Tyreke Evans in his game as a natural scorer who could wind up also playing some point guard in college.
6. Henry Ellenson, 6-10, 230, PF, Rice Lake, Wisconsin
College: Undecided
He’s a long and skilled big man who has dropped significant weight in the past year. We’re not saying he’s going to be Dirk Nowitzki, but he’s got a similar skill set for someone his size. Ellenson can shoot and handle the ball at 6-foot-10, and rarely posts up nowadays. His older brother, Wally, recently transferred to Marquette -- and other schools squarely in the equation include Wisconsin and Michigan State. Duke, Kentucky, UNC and Michigan are also involved.
7. Brandon Ingram, 6-8, 185, SF, Kinston, North Carolina
College: Undecided
He’ll need to continue to put on more weight, but he’s so long and skilled that NBA guys will love him down the road. Ingram can handle it, shoot it and also get to the basket and finish. He’s got a Tayshaun Prince-type of body, but is different from Prince in that he’s a better ball handler. A stronger comparison -- at the same stage -- might be Chandler Parsons. Ingram is looking at the four in-state schools -- Duke, UNC, NC State and Wake Forest in addition to UCLA, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisville and Florida.
8. Antonio Blakeney, 6-4, 170, SG, Oak Ridge High (Orlando, Florida)
College: Undecided
He’ll need to add strength, but he’s a long and athletic wing who can just put points on the board. Think of a Jamal Crawford-type. Blakeney can get to the basket and also can make shots from behind the arc, making him extremely difficult to guard. He recently trimmed his list of finalists to seven: Kentucky, Louisville, Florida State, Missouri, Oregon, LSU and USC.
9. Jalen Brunson, 6-1, 190, PG, Adlai Stevenson High (Lincolnshire, Illinois)
College: Undecided
First of all, this is a subpar point guard class -- and that’s being kind. Brunson, though, is a tough kid who has the pedigree (his father is former Temple star Rick Brunson) and is also a guy who can both run a team and also score when necessary. Brunson has some Kyle Lowry in his game. His top schools are Temple, Illinois, Michigan, Michigan State, Villanova and UConn.
10. Ray Smith, 6-7, 185, SF, Las Vegas High
College:Arizona Wildcats
He tore his ACL early in July, so few got a chance to really see him. However, those that have seen him ooze at his potential. He’s long, athletic and is a more than capable shooter. One observer said he is a more advanced DeMarre Carroll at the same stage in terms of how he scores. Smith also considered UConn, but opted to commit to Arizona just days after suffering the knee injury that could put him on the shelf for most, if not all of his senior season.
11. Stephen Zimmerman, 6-11, 225, PF/C, Bishop Gorman High (Las Vegas)
College: Undecided
NBA guys love Zimmerman’s size and skill set. He runs the court well, rebounds outside of his area and is a terrific passer for a big man. The one issue that worries them, though, is an elbow injury he suffered a few years back that limits his movement. Zimmerman is looking at Kansas, Kentucky, UNLV, North Carolina, UCLA, Arizona and Indiana.
12. Cheick Diallo, 6-9, 220, PF, Our Savior New American (Centereach, New York)
College: Undecided
He’s a long and athletic power forward who plays with an extremely high motor. Diallo played hurt for much of the summer, but he still went hard. He runs extremely well, rebounds at a high level and is in the Ben Wallace mold. Diallo is considering Kansas, Kentucky, Iowa State, St. John’s and Pittsburgh.