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Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)
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arthurli22
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Data Dialogue: The 'Greek Freak'
A simple, fundamental thing about sports statistics that gets overlooked in today's avalanche of numbers -- advanced or otherwise -- is that they actually represent things that happen as the game is played. Numbers drive our dialogue, our graphics and our arguments. They do not, however, drive the chatter in the locker room. Players care about numbers, of course, because that's what gets them paid. But nuanced discussions about how numbers come to represent specific skills, or which metrics are insightful -- it's just not a typical part of the exchange between athlete and athlete, or athlete and journalist.
What we've decided to do is to try to tie the numbers that drive our analysis with the skill sets of the players we cover by going directly to the source. The questions are driven by statistical analysis, although we're not just throwing a bunch of math at unsuspecting players. We are, however, hoping that by analyzing their own skill sets, players can reveal the mindsets that result in the numbers that tell their story.
We continue our set of dialogues today with Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo.
1: Most minutes by a foreign-born teenager: 1. Tony Parker, 2267; 2. Antetokounmpo, 1897; 3. Luol Deng, 1663.
Bradford Doolittle: When you came into league, the experts noted your talent and potential, but they thought because of the leap in competition from your level in Greece to the NBA, it might take a while for you to develop. You ended up playing nearly 1,900 minutes. Was the NBA more difficult that you imagined, or was it in some ways easier?
Giannis Antetokounmpo: It was hard. When I came into the league, I knew it was going to take a while for me to play. I just tried to have faith in myself and work hard for the coaches, so when my opportunity came, I could be ready. When (Larry Drew) told me to play that first game, I was ready to go, to fight for my guys forever.
2: Teenagers with 500 points, 60 steals, 60 blocks in a season: Antetokounmpo, Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant, Maurice Harkless, Dwight Howard, Kevin Garnett.
BD: Last year, I asked Indiana's Paul George what he liked about your game, and he said that it was the way you played both ends of the floor. Do you prefer one end over the other?
GA: I'm proud of all my game in the NBA. I just try to practice both ends. I want to be a defensive player, but I want to be a good offensive player, too. I want to try do everything on the court. I like Kobe Bryant because he plays offense, but he plays defense, too. You can see the passion inside. I want to be that type of player.
3: Block plus steal percentage: 83rd percentile. Points per play allowed: 30th percentile.
BD: With your length and mobility, you're bound to get a lot of steals and blocks. Have coaches talked to you about getting too caught up in the spectacular plays on defense, or are you allowed a certain leeway to freelance?
GA: I get to freelance some, because I like to be aggressive and they know I can get back (into position) because I'm so long. They know I'm not a silly guy who loses focus on the defensive end. I have a good feel for the game, so I'm usually in position. But I have to work on it a lot.
4: Assists: 150, fourth on the Bucks.
BD: What gives you more joy: Scoring a basket, or creating one for a teammate?
GA: Both. I like to play in the pick-and-roll, and I try to make my teammates look good and get an open look for them. Then they'll get the open look for me. If I can create space for my teammate, that's good for the team, too.
5: Points per play on isolations: 0.97, 83rd percentile.
BD: What elements are you working right now to add to your game as a scorer?
GA: [Coaches] tell me I'm a mismatch nightmare. So if a big guy guards me, I can go by him and draw the foul or create open looks for my teammates. But if a little guy guards me, I'm going to back him down and take him into the paint.
6: Turnover percentage: 19.4 percent, 10th highest in NBA.
BD: Last year, turnovers were an issue for you at times. This summer, it seems like you've improved your ballhandling. How much has that been a focus for you this summer?
GA: I'm focusing on decision-making. But coaches tell me to stay aggressive. If I screw up on offense, they tell me to stay aggressive. I can draw two guys on me, three guys. Coach tells me last night I had three guys on me and told me to find the open pass. I just try to throw a good pass.
7: Bucks' top scorers in summer league: 1. Antetokounmpo, 16.0, 2. Jabari Parker, 14.0.
BD: What are your early impressions of how your partnership with Jabari Parker is going to go?
GA: He's a really nice guy. Really nice. He's going to be a great player in this league, someone special in this league. I can't wait for the season to start so we can work together and build something together.
Nerlens Noel: Defense comes first
A simple, fundamental thing about sports statistics that is overlooked in today's avalanche of numbers -- advanced or otherwise -- is that they actually represent things that happen as the game is played. Numbers drive our dialogue, our graphics and our arguments. They do not, however, drive the chatter in the locker room. Players care about numbers, of course, because that's what gets them paid. But nuanced discussions about how numbers come to represent specific skills, or which metrics are insightful -- it's just not a typical part of the exchange between athlete and athlete, or athlete and journalist.
We've decided to try to tie the numbers that drive our analysis to the skill sets of the players we cover by going directly to the source. The questions are driven by statistical analysis, although we're not just throwing a bunch of math at unsuspecting players. We are, however, hoping that by analyzing their skill sets, players can reveal the mindsets that result in the numbers that tell their story.
We conclude our set of dialogues today with Philadelphia 76ers center Nerlens Noel, who made his NBA debut during the NBA Summer League in Orlando and Las Vegas after sitting out his entire first year in the league following a torn ACL suffered midway through his lone season at the University of Kentucky.
1: Ranked 10th in the NCAA and second among freshmen by blocking 13.2 percent of opponent 2-point attempts at Kentucky.
Kevin Pelton: When did you first realize, growing up, the impact you could have on a game as a shot-blocker?
Nerlens Noel: I would say early on in youth leagues. Being able to make a difference defensively was probably a natural gift. I've been able to utilize it, even as far as getting steals.
KP: How much of that is anticipation or instincts as opposed to physical tools?
NN: It definitely is a lot of anticipation and instinct. I've always been hard on myself to be very mobile on the defensive end. I just try to make sure I do as much as I can to help my team win, whether it's steals, blocks, rebounds, points or assists.
2: Per Sports-Reference.com, had the highest steal rate (3.9 percent) of any player with a block rate of at least 10 percent in the last five seasons.
KP: Do you think your steal rate sets you apart from other shot-blockers?
NN: I guess you could say that. I like to get out on pick-and-rolls, and if the point guard tries to split the screen, I think I'm very capable of picking his pocket. I think it gets us on the fast break, gets us going and creates a lot of opportunities for a team like us that really strives for a high pace.
3: Had a better combined block and steal rate than Kentucky predecessor Anthony Davis of the New Orleans Pelicans (13.7 percent and 2.5 percent, respectively).
KP: Who's the better defender, you or Anthony Davis?
NN: I don't know. You're going to have to answer that yourself.
4: Averaged 8.8 rebounds per 40 minutes in five NBA Summer League games, as compared to 11.9 at Kentucky.
KP: Has rebounding been a focus from the coaches for you during Summer League?
NN: Definitely. I've made that a focus on my own part. You haven't played in so long, so being able to find my spots and pick and choose them, pick them wisely. Not playing so long, you can get caught out of place, not knowing where to be at certain times, but I know that timing will come back. Especially with the steals and the blocks, I think that decreases the opportunities for rebounds as well. Getting steals, that's less shots they take to rebound.
5: Used 23.0 percent of the 76ers' plays in Summer League, up from 17.4 percent of Kentucky's plays.
KP: Do you have more offensive freedom here in Summer League than you did in college?
NN: In a way. I think it's more that I've worked on my game so much. At Kentucky, I was working on my game, but I didn't have a go-to move yet. I wasn't as confident as I am now. Just working so hard these last 17 months since my injury, bringing my offensive game along, has shown me I can feel comfortable shooting the 15-footer and making an aggressive move to the basket.
KP: Is that a silver lining to your injury?
NN: Definitely. That was one of the things I needed to work on. And I'm working on every part of my game if they were weaknesses, like strength-wise, continuing to grow my body. I think the offensive part of the game is still a work in progress. I think I can be able to make big strides over the next year or two establishing myself at the offensive end.
6: Philadelphia played at the league's fastest pace in 2013-14, averaging 97.6 possessions per 48 minutes.
KP: With the Sixers drafting another big man in the lottery (Kansas center Joel Embiid), does it make a difference whether you play center or power forward?
NN: No, it doesn't. I think we'll be able to play. The system we play is very high-paced. Joel is a mobile big man as well as another shot-blocker. I think as time goes along and we really get to know each other, I know he's a very good passer, he can step out and shoot it a little bit, so I think me and him being so mobile and versatile, we'll be able to play together.
7: The 76ers did not have a single player older than 26 appear in a game in 2013-14, a first since the ABA-NBA merger.
KP: What are your expectations for yourself as a rookie?
NN: I'd say to go out there and play hard, put as many numbers up as I can to help my team win games. It's going to be a tough season. We have a young team, but I want to establish myself as a young leader of this Philadelphia 76ers team and be able to help the coaches as we bring a lot of talent to Philadelphia in the near future.
Cavs can build better big three
Jeff Goodman polls NBA execs: Don't trade Wiggins
Unlike "The Decision," LeBron James' returning to the Cleveland Cavaliers as a free agent last Friday doesn't immediately create a star-studded big three. However, one more transaction -- the Cavaliers dealing for Minnesota Timberwolves star Kevin Love -- would bring together a trio of players, including Cleveland incumbent Kyrie Irving, that would have the potential to surpass the threesome that helped the Miami Heat reach the NBA Finals four times and win two championships.
Love trade a no-brainer
Even before James' announcement, reports suggested the Cavaliers and Timberwolves were discussing a Love trade, and ESPN's Marc Stein reported last Friday that Love would commit to staying with the Cavs. That James' letter did not mention No. 1 overall pick Andrew Wiggins will only fuel speculation that Cleveland is preparing to send a package centered around Wiggins to Minnesota. However, Cleveland immediately dismissed speculation that it would trade Wiggins. As late as Monday, Cavs head coach David Blatt refuted talk that Wiggins could be traded.
Apparently things have changed, as ESPN Insider's Chris Broussard reports, the Cavaliers changed their stance and said Wiggins is available as trade talks between the Cavaliers and Wolves resumed this week.
If the Timberwolves are amenable, a Love trade is an easy choice for the Cavaliers.
While surrendering the top pick would be nearly unprecedented in modern NBA history -- once secured in the lottery, the No. 1 selection hasn't been traded since the Orlando Magic sent Chris Webber to the Golden State Warriors on draft night in 1993 -- Love's trade value is also unique.
In May, I argued that Love might be the most valuable player to change hands since Kareem Abdul-Jabbar was traded from Milwaukee to the L.A. Lakers in 1975. Not only is Love a top-five talent in the league, at 25, he's just entering his prime. Provided he's willing to re-sign with Cleveland, Love is more valuable than the average No. 1 pick. And while scouts project Wiggins as an elite talent, his performance at Kansas raised questions about his potential.
None of the other players or picks the Cavaliers might have to surrender in a Love trade would be huge losses for Cleveland. Anthony Bennett, the 2013 No. 1 pick, still must prove he's worthy of his rookie contract after submitting the worst first season by a top pick in terms of wins above replacement player (WARP) since the ABA-NBA merger. The Cavaliers' own picks are likely to fall late in the first round, though Cleveland does own the Heat's protected 2015 first-round pick, which suddenly became more valuable with James' departure.
Should the Cavaliers acquire Love, he'd be arguably the best player with whom James has ever teamed. While Love's résumé might not compare to Dwyane Wade's playoff success before teaming up with James, his performance is similar to Wade's in 2010. Last season, Love produced 20.3 WARP, good for third in the league behind James and Kevin Durant. In 2009-10, Wade posted 20.0 WARP as the leader of a one-star Miami team.
Crucially, unlike Wade, Love is likely to maintain that level of play for several years to come.
Wade's production has dropped each season since James joined him on the Heat. And while some of that has to do with the diminishing returns of pairing multiple stars, it has more to do with Wade's deteriorating physical condition. Love isn't the same kind of long-term risk.
Irving's future bright
Even before bringing back James, Cleveland had a budding superstar in Irving, the 2011 No. 1 overall pick who officially signed a five-year maximum extension just Thursday. Irving's three years with the Cavaliers haven't been entirely happy. He has reportedly squabbled at times with teammate Dion Waiters, and his poor defense has made Irving less valuable than his box score stats would indicate. (ESPN's real plus-minus rates Irving as a below-average contributor and one of the league's worst defensive players.)
Taking a step back, however, Irving's potential is immense. Two of the three most similar players to him at the same age per my SCHOENE projection system, Allen Iverson and Derrick Rose, went on to win MVP awards. (Gilbert Arenas is the other player in between them.) Or consider that Irving, the MVP of last year's All-Star Game, has been chosen an All-Star twice before age 22. Per Basketball-Reference.com, that puts him in a group including James, as well as Kobe Bryant, Kevin Garnett, Shaquille O'Neal and Isiah Thomas.
Irving isn't yet as good as Chris Bosh, his opposite number in Miami's pecking order. But his advanced statistics are similar to Bosh's through the same age, and there's a history of point guards blossoming a bit later than their peers at other positions. Irving has been a much better scorer than Rose was up until his breakthrough 2010-11 campaign won him MVP at age 22 (albeit in his third season), and John Wall of the Washington Wizards -- the No. 1 pick the year before Irving -- just made a leap forward in his fourth season at 23.
No Cleveland player will be affected more by James' arrival than Irving, who will have to spend more time off the ball and will have no choice but to improve his defensive effort now that the Cavaliers expect to contend for championships, not just playoff appearances. If Irving rises to that challenge, it's not inconceivable that he could join James and Love among the league's top 10 players. Remember, we're less than a year removed from ESPN's #NBArank panel placing Irving eighth in the league, a jump that proved premature. (Love was 11th and James, naturally, first on the list.)
Keyword: potential
Besides the minor detail of actually completing a Love trade, there's a reason this analysis has focused on the potential of a Cleveland big three rather than the reality. So far, Irving has demonstrated his potential much more than he has actually proved valuable on the court. Love has yet to play for a winning team, and while that reflects more on Minnesota's rosters than his performance, his habits also would have to improve on a championship contender.
The tradeoff for those question marks is the chance of a more sustainable trio of stars.
As James hits his 30s, Irving and Love will be growing into their primes, which would allow the Cavaliers to manage James' minutes better and keep him fresh for the postseason. Unlike four years ago, nobody involved is going to start counting off possible championships in Cleveland. But if the Cavaliers could acquire Love and Irving develops as expected, this big three could end up with as much hardware or more than the Heat's version.
Rakim Allah
Superstar
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arthurli22
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Class of 2015 midsummer report
We are halfway through the summer, and it's time to take note of the players in the class of 2015 who have been most impressive during the grind of a competitive June and July. This is based on performance and not by ranking, so let's examine the 10 best of the summer so far.
Best all-around offensive player: Ben Simmons (Montverde, Florida/Montverde Academy)
Committed to: LSU
When it comes to scoring, passing and driving the ball, Simmons impacts the game and is highly productive inside the arc. He causes matchup problems with his versatility, especially when it comes to his passing skills. He is a terrific triple-threat player in the half court and excels in the transition game, running the break, facilitating or finishing.
Most impressive prospect: Jaylen Brown (Alpharetta, Georgia/ Wheeler High School)
From start to finish of every game, Brown competes, produces and dominates the competition with his elite skill level and athletic ability. He has a combination of power and finesse on the perimeter, in the paint, in the conversion game, and in the half-court set; he can score in a variety of ways. Defensively, Brown will anticipate and get his share of steals while being a constant on the glass.
Best big man: Caleb Swanigan (Fort Wayne, Indiana/Homestead High School)
The front court is what makes the class of 2015 special, and Swanigan has the best paint game. With a wide body, secure hands and nimble footwork, he has a back-to-the-basket game and a face-up jumper that extends to 19 feet. He continues to be a presence on the glass through size and effort and blocks shots on a consistent basis.
Best shot-blocker: Skal Labissiere (Memphis, Tennessee/Evangelical Christian School)
This long, thin post makes it a priority to protect the basket with his enormous wing span and reach. He can make multiple blocks per possession and can do so on his man or come over from the weak side and swat the attempt away.
Best motor: Cheick Diallo (Centereach, New York/Our Savior New American School)
He is in constant motion all game long and his passion to compete powers his talent. He influences the game with his hustle and energy, outworking his opponents in areas such as running the floor, rebounding and blocking shots. Diallo plays the game with urgency from beginning to end regardless of the score.
Best athlete: Derrick Jones (Philadelphia/Archbishop Carroll High School)
He has a rare combination of tremendous length and an explosive vertical leap, which helps him contribute on both ends of the floor. Offensively, he stands out finishing in transition with tip dunks and straight line drives. On the defensive end, his lateral quickness keeps him in front of his opponent. As the skills catch up to his athletic ability, he will be even more productive.
Best shooter: Ryan Cline (Carmel, Indiana/Carmel)
Committed to: Purdue
Always known as an outside shooter with deep range and accuracy, he was on the big stage last weekend in the championship game at the Adidas Super 64, where he went 7-for-10 from distance in a spectacular performance. He is shot-ready when he catches the ball and is not afraid to launch it when he is open. He exudes tremendous confidence as he never lets the last shot affect the next attempt.
Best scorer: Allonzo Trier (Las Vegas/Findlay College Prep)
He’s a dangerous and lethal 3-point shooter who can drive it hard to the rim and score or get fouled. His mentality is to keep attacking the defense. He is frequently at the free throw line, a clear-cut sign of his scoring instincts. At times, he is a volume point scorer, but there is no denying his natural gifts to score the basketball.
Most underrated: Jawun Evans (Dallas/Justin F. Kimball High School)
He is in the ESPN 100 at No. 63, but he has performed above that. At 5-foot-11 with a 6-4 wing span, Evans can really defend, and he displays quickness with the ball in the open floor. He can penetrate any defense, and he distributes the ball with the talent to score by the drive or the jumper. He is a no-nonsense type of player.
Best defender: Justin Simon (Temecula, California/Temecula Valley High School)
Committed to: Arizona
Simon works on the defensive end, trying to keep his man out of the lane with size (6-foot-5) and good lateral quickness. He gets in a low, wide stance to defend opposing point guards and has a good reach to contest shots from shooting guards.
Rakim Allah
Superstar
Best under-the-radar moves
Not every NBA transaction has the seismic consequences of LeBron James' return to Cleveland, but smaller moves can still have a big impact.
An example of a difference-making move that didn't create any kind of stir when it happened was San Antonio's signing of Marco Belinelli last summer. Belinelli provided the already-deep Spurs with a reasonable facsimile to Manu Ginobili, and ended up second on the Spurs in minutes played during the regular season. Further, it was the efficiency of players such as Belinelli, Patty Mills and Boris Diaw that allowed the Spurs to keep their foundation players under 30 minutes per game, preserving the veterans' best performance for San Antonio's title run.
Likewise, Washington's midseason acquisition of Andre Miller last season helped to solidify the Wizards' rotation. Miller played more than 20 minutes in a game just twice, but the Wizards went 18-10 with Miller, and knocked out Chicago in the first round of the playoffs.
So which relatively unheralded moves from the 2014 offseason will prove significant this season? Here's a look at five under-the-radar additions from this summer that could have important consequences down the line.
Toronto Raptors
Key additions: James Johnson, Louis Williams
The Raptors focused in large part on retention this summer. Kyle Lowry, Patrick Patterson and Greivis Vasquez all could have left. All will be back with Toronto this season.
Maintaining and building the status quo makes sense for the Raptors, who set a franchise record of 48 wins last season, making the playoffs for the first time in six years despite having a roster with a minutes-weighted average age of just 26.6 years old. As such, GM Masai Ujiri chose to construct a roster this summer that will allow for continued growth. The Raptors currently project to get 86 percent of their minutes from players on last year's team, the sixth-highest rate of retention in the league.
Of course, standing pat can have the downside of limiting upside. If your foundation isn't good enough to contend, even with development, you end up stuck in a state of stasis. So rather than upset the apple cart, Ujiri's offseason has also been aimed at improving on the margins. And by adding James Johnson and Louis Williams, he appears to have succeeded.
Toronto was a very balanced team statistically a year ago, but were glaringly unable to get score in the paint. While they drew a lot of fouls, they couldn't get baskets from close in with any consistency. Only two teams in the NBA had a lower percentage of its points in the paint. Making matters worse, Toronto ranked 23rd in overall 2-point field goal accuracy. For a team built around Lowry, DeMar DeRozan and Jonas Valanciunas, those are surprising -- and disturbing -- figures.
Williams could help turn things around inside. From 2005-2012, with Philadelphia, 52 percent of Williams' shots came from inside of 16 feet, according to Basketball-Reference.com. But after suffering a major knee injury, he became more of a jump-shooter in Atlanta. He's another year removed from surgery now, though, and the hope is he'll be able to resume the off-the-dribble game he featured with the Sixers.
Meanwhile, Johnson has improved on the shot selection that had undermined his athleticism earlier in his career. Last season, he took 61 percent of his shots from 10 feet and in. Even better, Johnson hit 55 percent of his 2-point shots, a major reason he was able to put up a career-best 4.3 wins above replacement (WARP) in just 18 minutes per game.
Given the number of solid jump-shooters in Toronto, Williams and Johnson should both have plenty of opportunity to attack driving lanes. These moves, along with the natural development of Valanciunas, should mean a lot more points in the paint for the Raptors this season. That might not lead to a huge gain in overall efficiency, but it will make Toronto's attack more versatile, which in turn will pay dividends in the playoffs, when matchups become so important.
New Orleans Pelicans
Key addition: Omer Asik
It seems as if we spent so much time focusing on the Rockets' failure to land Chris Bosh that we overlooked what some other teams gained as a result of Houston's feverish pursuit.
Example No. 1: New Orleans' acquisition of Omer Asik for a first-round pick. Thanks to Anthony Davis, the Pelicans led the league in shot-block percentage last season. But they also ranked just 25th in overall defensive efficiency and 27th in 2-point field goal percentage allowed. And according to NBA.com/stats, the Pelicans were only a half-point better per 100 possessions on defense when Davis was on the floor. Clearly, they'll need to do a better job this season of leveraging his abilities on that end.
In that respect, Davis' partnership with Asik should be ideal. Over the course of his career, Asik has improved his teams' defensive rating by 4.3. He's one of the league's best rim protectors and his presence will help Davis fully realize his defensive potential, allowing the 21-year-old phenom to roam as a weakside shot-blocker and wreak havoc.
Last season, New Orleans paired Davis with fellow shot-blocker Greg Stiemsma for 570 minutes, during which the Pelicans' defensive rating was 3.3 points better than its season mark. Asik is about two tiers above Stiemsma as an interior defender. And so he and Davis should spend about three times as many minutes on the floor together. The Pelicans' performance on the defensive end should see a big boost as a result.
The addition of Asik is a big reason the Pelicans may be a breakout team this coming season.
Memphis Grizzlies
Key addition: Vince Carter
Memphis has been getting gradually more efficient on the offensive end over the past couple of years. Nevertheless, the Grizzlies' league ranking in frequency of 3-pointers attempted over the past six years has ranked as follows: 27th, 30th, 30th, 28th, 30th and 30th. To highlight the magnitude of this signing: The Grizzlies have been desperate for 3-point shooting since before Barack Obama was president.
Memphis' 3-point percentage last season was within earshot of the league average, so the problem wasn't necessarily with accuracy, but rather with volume. The addition of Carter gives the Grizzlies a different kind of deep threat than the departed Mike Miller. Miller is more accurate than Carter -- as well as just about everyone else in the NBA -- but Carter's no slouch from the arc. He's shot 40 percent from deep over the past two seasons, and possesses better ability than Miller to create his own long-range shots. Last season, Carter averaged 6.8 3-point attempts per 36 minutes, compared to Miller's 4.9.
The Grizzlies also will welcome Quincy Pondexter back from injury this year. In his last healthy season, Pondexter averaged 4.4 3-point attempts per 36 minutes and hit nearly 40 percent of those. The Grizzlies will remain an inside-out team in 2014-2015. The variety of deep shooters now available should help open up the inside for Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph.
My far-too-early projections have the Grizzlies actually making more 3s than three other teams this season. Hey, you have to start somewhere.
Chicago Bulls
Key addition: Aaron Brooks
I've written a lot about how much success Tom Thibodeau has with shoot-first point guards. Jannero Pargo, John Lucas III, Nate Robinson and D.J. Augustin all have helped prop up Chicago's offense with ultimate shoot-first point guard Derrick Rose sidelined. Chicago lost Augustin to the Pistons during free agency, but Brooks is a worthy replacement in that key second-unit scoring role.
Augustin and Brooks have had remarkably similar careers, though Augustin had the superior 2013-14 campaign and is three years younger. They shoot the 3-ball equally well, but Brooks has generally produced higher volumes of usage and scoring. The hope is that Brooks' efficiency will get the same kind of boost that other players of his ilk have had under Thibodeau. By adding Brooks, the Bulls can now mix and match with him, Rose and Kirk Hinrich, and they can save wear and tear on Rose by playing him off the ball for stretches.
Free-agency winners, losers
Let the record show that 2014 felt like the longest offseason ever. As I am typing this column, Kevin Love remains untraded, Eric Bledsoe and Greg Monroe remain unsigned, and the Lakers named their head coach (Byron Scott) only a few days ago.
Still, most of the desirable free agents are off the market, and teams have a much clearer vision of what their rosters will look like on opening night. In a perfect world, we would wait until sometime during the season before passing judgment on the free-agent signings of summer 2014, but we live in an imperfect world, friends, so let the judging begin.
Here are the biggest winners and losers of NBA free agency.
Winners (in alphabetical order)
Charlotte Hornets
Main signees: Lance Stephenson, Marvin Williams, Brian Roberts
Flashback to 12 months ago and not many people would have expected Charlotte to be on this list so soon. But the free-agency steal of 2013 (signing Al Jefferson) and a shrewd coach hiring (Steve Clifford) gave the then-Bobcats their most successful season to date -- more successful than the 2009-10 outfit that won one more game -- because this team has a chance for sustained success.
Losing Josh McRoberts early this offseason to Miami was a big blow, but the Hornets recovered nicely by snagging Stephenson on a team-friendly three-year deal that features a team option on the final year, a nice carrot to keep him motivated. His playmaking will fill the gap left by McRoberts for an offense that had to work hard for every point scored. Williams at $7 million per year is an overpay, but the short nature of the deal (just two years) means Charlotte isn't unnecessarily tied to him and he'll provide some much-needed perimeter shooting.
Chicago Bulls
Main signees: Pau Gasol, Nikola Mirotic, Aaron Brooks, Kirk Hinrich
The Bulls swung and missed on their original target, Carmelo Anthony, and while they could have used Melo's diverse scoring arsenal, they managed to rebound by signing Gasol to a three-year, $22 million deal, a massive upgrade over Carlos Boozer, on whom they used the amnesty clause. Gasol gives the Bulls a bona fide scoring option in the post (although he's no longer a prolific one) and another high-basketball IQ big man who can rebound and pass while playing alongside Joakim Noah or Taj Gibson.
They also brought in 2011 draftee Mirotic from Spain with their full midlevel exception. He's an offensive mismatch who will help the Bulls run jumbo lineups, but it remains to be seen as to whether his defensive aptitude will be up to snuff for coach Tom Thibodeau's taste. Finally, Brooks on a minimum contract continues the team's tradition of acquiring inexpensive, small, scoring-focused point guards who get an opportunity to earn a bigger deal down the line, following D.J. Augustin, Nate Robinson, John Lucas III and C.J. Watson.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Main signee: LeBron James
They got LeBron. In the immortal words of Jay Z, "What more can I say?"
San Antonio Spurs
Main signees: Boris Diaw, Patty Mills, Matt Bonner, Bryce Cotton
Look up and down the Spurs' roster; other than 2014 draftee Kyle Anderson, the roster looks almost identical to their championship team. So how did they make the free-agency winners list? Simple: One of the rarest commodities in the NBA today is continuity, and part of what made San Antonio so unstoppable last season was the familiarity within the roster bred by their continuous growth and maturation together, rather than the standard NBA practice of wholesale changes every summer.
Bringing back Diaw at four years, $28 million might seem a tad steep, but his third year is just $3 million guaranteed and the last year is wholly nonguaranteed, so there's a ton of flexibility there (also bears noting that 2016-17 will be his lowest salary in the lifetime of this contract, giving them some extra flexibility in 2016 free agency). Mills at less than $4 million per year was a steal (considering his scorching playoff performance), despite an untimely torn rotator cuff. Bonner gives them a pro's pro who is comfortable going from DNP-CD to a start and not missing a beat. Finally, Cotton is similar to what Mills was coming out of college: a small, scoring guard with potential to grow.
Losers (in alphabetical order)
Detroit Pistons
Main signees: Jodie Meeks, Caron Butler, D.J. Augustin
Years from now, it will be the question to a great NBA Jeopardy answer: "This signing was the first salvo fired in 2014 free agency, indicating the age of fiscal responsibility in the NBA lasted one season." (Answer: "Who is Jodie Meeks?") Despite the market not having been set and a modest list (at best) of suitors, the Pistons saw fit to pay Meeks more than superior shooters like Kyle Korver and Martell Webster got last summer. Making matters worse, similar caliber shooters C.J. Miles and Anthony Morrow both got more reasonable deals -- and in small markets Indiana and Oklahoma City, respectively, so you can't argue that Detroit "had" to overpay.
Compounding that mistake, they gave two years, $9 million to Butler (although the second year is nonguaranteed), who last season no longer appeared productive as a wing, and two years, $6 million to Augustin, which isn't bad value in a vacuum but head-scratching when you consider they already have two undersized shoot-first point guards on the roster in Brandon Jennings and Will Bynum. In short: Which team or teams was Detroit outbidding in its pursuit of average-to-mediocre talent?
Los Angeles Lakers
Main signees: Jordan Hill, Nick Young, Carlos Boozer, Ed Davis
If you squint your eyes really hard, what the Lakers achieved in free agency was pretty good: They outright stole Davis for two years at the veteran's minimum, Hill's deal is a dramatic overpay but is really just a one-year deal with L.A. holding the option on the second year, Boozer for one year at a little more than $3 million isn't that weighty and Young ...
OK, forget it. The Lakers shot themselves in the foot.
Other than Davis, none of the players signed this offseason can be looked at as a building block for the future. At the same time, none of them are good enough to individually (or collectively) change the fate of this team's win-loss future enough to ensure a playoff berth. In essence, the Lakers spent a bunch of money to contend for the 10th overall pick in the 2015 draft. Slight problem with that strategy: If their pick falls outside of the top five, it goes to Phoenix as the final obligation due from the Steve Nash trade. Strategic win-loss management issues aside, the real story is how the Lakers brand was incapable of landing a single signature free agent despite having the wherewithal to offer a max deal. If this were the Jazz, we wouldn't bat an eye, but for this to happen in Tinseltown? My how the mighty have fallen.
Sacramento Kings
Main signee: Darren Collison
Collison has been the only signing of free agency thus far for Sacramento, but it is probably the most puzzling decision made by any NBA front office this offseason. How do you move forward from Isaiah Thomas, citing a need for better distribution and defense from the starting point guard position, and arrive at Collison as a solution? I will put it bluntly: The Kings replaced Thomas with a poor man's version of him; they share the same flaws, except they are more glaring in Collison's case. Making matters worse, Thomas ended up agreeing to favorable terms in Phoenix at four years, $27 million, a savings of $1.75 million per year for Sacramento but a much bigger corresponding dip in production and efficiency.
The real shame of this situation is Sacramento seems to be continuing down the same path that bedeviled the last administration. How do you look at the Kings roster and surmise that you need another player whose first thought is "shoot" and not "pass" (or even "defend")? Here are all of the major acquisitions the Kings have made since the ownership switch in 2013:
• Draft Ben McLemore (shoot-first)
• Trade for Greivis Vasquez (pass-first; traded away five months later)
• Sign Luc Richard Mbah a Moute (defend-first; traded away four months later)
• Trade for Derrick Williams (shoot-first)
• Trade for Rudy Gay (shoot-first)
• Draft Nik Stauskas (shoot-first, although already one of the best passers on the team)
• Sign Collison (shoot-first)
You've heard the phrase "shoot first, ask questions later." I think it's time the Kings start asking questions.