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Duke's Okafor leads 2015 class
We are going to have a hard time topping the 2014 NBA draft. Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Dante Exum and Joel Embiid gave us four credible choices at No. 1. Another five players looked like they could become potential All-Stars. Those kinds of drafts come along once in a decade. The 2015 draft doesn't appear to have a franchise-type player right now. There is no one guy to hang all of your hopes on. No one worthy of tanking the season over ... yet.
But that doesn't mean it will be the 2013 NBA draft either. There is talent here. Lots of it. And for the first time in a while, much of the talent stands 6-foot-10 or taller. Big man Jahlil Okafor, a Duke recruit, will be atop our new 2015 Top 100.
The top 5 prospects
1. Jahlil Okafor | Duke
Okafor is 6-foot-11 with a 7-foot-5 wingspan. He's already 270 pounds. He has great hands, a soft touch and amazing footwork for an 18-year-old. He's a rare, old-school, back-to-the-basket center. However, Okafor isn't a lock to go No. 1. He lacks elite athleticism and has struggled with conditioning issues at times. While the most optimistic scouts see a young Tim Duncan, Duncan was a better athlete than Okafor. A young Elton Brand might be a better comp.
2. Emmanuel Mudiay | SMU
Okafor's top competition for the No. 1 pick will come from Emmanuel Mudiay, a 6-foot-5 point guard committed to SMU -- the No. 2-ranked player on our Top 100. Mudiay has both size and elite athleticism for his position. He's quick, strong, is relentless at getting to the basket and finishes above the rim.
His dominant play at the Nike Hoop Summit had many scouts predicting that he would eventually overtake Okafor as the No. 1 pick in the draft. Mudiay isn't a great shooter yet, can be turnover-prone and he's going to play for a head coach, Larry Brown, who is notoriously hard on young point guards (some scouts see that as a good thing). But if he really gets things going as a freshman, his upside could easily vault him over Okafor. If I were to rank the percentage of these two going No. 1 right now, it would be Okafor at 51 percent and Mudiay at 49 percent. It's that close.
3. Karl Towns Jr. | Kentucky
Towns has the size and agility to make a run at No. 1 -- if he gets minutes. Scouts compare him to a young, less volatile DeMarcus Cousins. Towns can score both inside and out and has been a favorite of scouts for the past couple of years. But he's going to a loaded Kentucky team that also has Willie Cauley-Stein and Dakari Johnson at center. Will he be able to get the minutes he needs to make his case for a top pick? Towns has more upside than either player, but lacks the experience.
4. Kristaps Porzingis | Latvia
Porzingis would have been a likely late lottery candidate in the 2014 draft. His surprise decision to withdraw from the draft immediately vaulted him into the top 5 in the 2015 draft. Standing at 6-11 and 220 pounds, Porzingis is very athletic, runs the floor like a guard and is a very good perimeter shooter with 3-point range. He needs to get stronger, hone his post game and get more meaningful minutes in Europe this year. But if he continues to develop, there's a lot to like there.
5. Myles Turner | Texas
Turner was the most controversial selection of the group. He's the No. 2-ranked player in the freshman class, according to ESPN. He's a true 7-footer with a 7-foot-4 wingspan and has excellent athletic abilities for his size. But he's by far the rawest prospect of the top 5. He's still more comfortable playing on the perimeter, lacks toughness and post moves, and can disappear in games.
However, before jumping off the bandwagon, remember scouts said most of those same things about Andre Drummond coming out of high school. His lackluster play as a freshman dropped him to No. 9 in the 2012 draft. In retrospect, he should have gone No. 2. I've split the difference with Turner. As you get ready to dig into our initial 2015 Top 100, which will debut in a couple of weeks, here's a look at four themes for next year's draft:
1. Another elite freshman class
Freshmen continue to have a huge impact. NBA Commissioner Adam Silver is trying to change that, but for now, one-and-dones are the true stars of the draft. In 2014, seven freshmen -- Wiggins, Parker, Embiid, Noah Vonleh, Julius Randle, Aaron Gordon and Zach LaVine went in the lottery. This year, we are projecting a potential record of eight freshmen -- Okafor, Mudiay, Towns, Turner, Kansas' Cliff Alexander and Kelly Oubre, Duke's Justise Winslow and Arizona's Stanley Johnson -- in the lottery.
Four other freshmen -- Duke's Tyus Jones, North Carolina's Justin Jackson and Kentucky's Trey Lyles -- are possible first-rounders.
2. A solid sophomore and junior class
A small number of talented players decided to skip the 2014 draft and return to college. Just about everyone with a shot at the first round threw their hat into the ring. Only one returning college player -- Willie Cauley-Stein -- ended up cracking our top 10.
However, there are a number of interesting returning players in this draft. We're projecting Louisville's Montrezl Harrell, Arizona's Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Florida's Chris Walker and Arkansas' Bobby Portis as potential lottery picks in 2014. Several other returning players including Kansas' Wayne Selden, Wisconsin's Sam Dekker, Wichita State's Ron Baker, LSU's Jordan Mickey and Jarell Martin, Cal's Jabari Bird, Michigan's Caris LeVert, Kentucky's Aaron Harrison and Andrew Harrison could all end up in the late lottery to mid-first round with excellent seasons.
3. A solid crop of international prospects
The 2014 international draft class was strong. However, just Australia's Dante Exum and Dario Saric heard their name called in the lottery. Another four international players -- Bosnia's Jusuf Nurkic, Brazil's Bruno Caboclo, Switzerland's Clint Capela and Serbia's Bogdan Bogdanovic -- cracked the first round.
In 2015, the class doesn't look quite as deep -- but it's still good. We have two international prospects -- Porzingis and Croatia's Mario Hezonja -- ranked in the top 10. In addition, Spain's Marc Garcia and Guillem Vives, Senegal's Ilimane Diop and Moussa Diagne, Serbia's Nikola Milutinov and Denmark's Rasmus Larsen are potential first rounders.
4. Go Big or Go Home ...
In 2015, a whopping four centers make our top 10. In 2014, there were just two centers taken in the entire first round. We have eight players standing 6-foot-11 or taller in our top 30 this year. Big men always come at a premium, and the strength of the draft is clearly in the paint. This is also a great draft for small forwards. We have 10 small forwards currently listed in our top 30 this year. While it's possibly the least sexy position in the NBA, it's also one of the league's greatest needs.
There will be a lot of teams on the hunt for a good wing. However, we have just five point guards and three shooting guards in the top 30. The point guard class in 2014 turned out to be pretty impressive. There were four point guards taken in the lottery (Exum, Marcus Smart, Elfrid Payton, Zach LaVine) and two others (Tyler Ennis and Shabazz Napier) who showed a ton of promise. This year, only one point guard, Mudiay, is ranked as a potential lottery pick.
Unfortunately, the shooting guard class is worse. Selden is ranked as the top shooting guard in this class, and he's ranked just 16th overall. The 2014 draft was loaded with dynamic shooters. 2015? Not so much.
Overall, the 2015 draft class is rounding out to be a pretty solid -- somewhere in the middle of 2014 and 2013. The bigs are the appeal, but there just isn't a lot of star power here outside of Mudiay. Luckily it can get better. You also have to factor in that some players that we're not talking about will rise -- they always do. Vonleh and Nik Stauskas weren't listed as lottery picks before 2013-14 season, for example. A few players always rise. As the camps and international tournaments get underway, look for further reports, including regular Big Boards, updates to the Top 100, Ford-Bilas and Ford-Pelton debates, mock drafts and more in our year-round draft coverage.
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Best, worst picks in NBA draft
A day after the 2014 NBA draft is complete, Chad Ford and Jay Bilas return to provide a breakdown. Today, they look at the best and worst picks, most surprising selection and a pick for rookie of the year.
1. Who was the best pick of the draft?
Jay Bilas: The best pick was Isaiah Austin, made by Adam Silver. What a classy and heartwarming moment. Next, it would be Joel Embiid, by Philadelphia. Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker were the right calls for Cleveland and Milwaukee given their situations, but Embiid is the best prospect. The two recent injuries are certainly a concern, but I believe his talent and the potential return is worth the risk. A former NBA head coach who has worked with Embiid told me on draft night that he agreed. He said Embiid was the best pick, and he wouldn't hesitate if he was in the position to take him. Reasonable minds can differ, but I'll take Embiid. By the way, Parker and Julius Randle have both broken a foot in the past 18 months. They weren't exactly the same injury as Embiid's, but it happens.
Chad Ford: Andrew Wiggins. He was the No. 1 pick on my Big Board for most of the year (with the exception of one slight Embiid bump up before he got injured) and the Cavs resisted the urge to draft a more NBA-ready prospect in Parker. I think Wiggins not only has the highest ceiling of any player in the draft but I also think he helps them right now. Wiggins is an excellent defender who can guard multiple positions. The Cavs needed that more than they needed another scorer. So I think Wiggins is the best of both worlds. He helps you now and has so much room to grow.
I also loved Parker to the Bucks, Dante Exum to the Jazz, Marcus Smart to the Celtics, Randle to the Lakers, Doug McDermott to the Bulls, Elfrid Payton to the Magic, Shabazz Napier to the Heat and Kyle Anderson to the Spurs. Those were all great players who look like perfect fits with the teams that drafted them.
2. Who was the worst pick in the draft?
Ford: I love Nik Stauskas, but thought he was a bad fit in Sacramento. I felt the same way about Jimmer Fredette a few years ago and had issues with Ben McLemore as well. The Kings are loaded with players who shoot first and ask questions later. They lack any sort of defensive identity despite having a coach, Mike Malone, who stresses defense. While Stauskas is worthy of the No. 8 pick, I thought the Kings had bigger needs at the point and in the paint that players such as Payton and Noah Vonleh could've addressed. If the Kings are planning on moving McLemore for Rajon Rondo, I'll have fewer concerns with this pick. But I fear for Stauskas' career. He's not a great defender and will have to fight for shots in Sacramento -- not an ideal place for him to land.
I also am miffed by the Embiid and Dario Saric picks for Philadelphia. Don't get me wrong, I love both players. But the Sixers failed to get a player they can develop this year. How do you go back to your fans and say, "Remember how we tanked all year to get Wiggins? Well, instead we drafted a guy with a foot and back problem who likely won't play this year and another guy who preferred to sign a three-year deal in Turkey. But remember the guy with the torn ACL we drafted last year? Nerlens Noel? He's ready." I think it was a tough night for Sixers fans.
Bilas: I wasn't expecting anyone named Bruno to be drafted in Round 1. I haven't seen him, but Fran Fraschilla said Bruno Caboclo is a long way away from being able to contribute ("two years away from being two years away" is how he put it). I was surprised to see him taken at No. 20, but the Raptors must really believe in this young player. Toronto must have been concerned that he would be grabbed up if they passed on him there. But with so many quality players still available, I was a bit taken aback. I hope it pays off for them.
3. What was the most surprising pick of the draft?
Bilas: Stanford's Josh Huestis going in the first round, as I had him as a second-round pick. When you have your guy you draft him, and clearly, Sam Presti had his guy. I love Huestis' defense, shot blocking and rebounding. He totally shut down Wiggins in the NCAA tournament when Stanford went man-to-man, and he was the best defender in the Pac-12. Huestis also can make open shots. It was a surprise, but a smart one by OKC.
Ford: Toronto's selection of Caboclo may be the single most surprising pick ever in the top 20. GM Masai Ujiri is trying to replicate the success of the Bucks, who took Giannis Antetokounmpo at No. 15 last year. There are similarities (both are big, long, athletic wings who can play like guards), but Caboclo is even more raw than Giannis was. I'm not sure, given where the Raptors are right now, that they'll have the patience to place him in the rotation and hope he plays. I could be wrong, as I've only seen some grainy video on him and I know the Raptors know him much better. But to hear his name called at 20 was really shocking.
I agree with Jay that Huestis at No. 29 was a pretty big surprise. I like him, but not at 29.
4. Who will win rookie of the year?
Ford: Parker. He's going to be the focal point of Milwaukee's offense next year. I don't think any rookie will get more touches, responsibility or minutes. I think he immediately becomes the Bucks' best scorer.
Other candidates: Smart (if Boston trades Rondo) and Randle (if Kobe Bryant lets him play).
Bilas: I like Parker as well. Parker is a great scorer and will average 18 points per game next season. If not for Embiid, I would have taken Parker ahead of Wiggins. It's a tough choice, though. Both can be special.
Top 25 playoff teams: Ohio State
Fremeau's projection
Projected finish: 10-2 (6-2 Big Ten)
Chance to make playoff: 29 percent
Chance to win Big Ten: 30 percent
Toughest games: Oct. 25 at Penn State (70 percent), Nov. 8 at Michigan State (45 percent), Nov. 29 vs. Michigan (74 percent)
Why they'll make the playoff
1. An elite head coach
Before you can think about winning the College Football Playoff, you must first reach the College Football Playoff, which means successfully navigating the regular season. Few current FBS coaches, if any, have a better track record at doing this than Urban Meyer.
In his past nine seasons, Meyer has twice finished the regular season unbeaten (2004 Utah and 2012 Ohio State), two other times reached the conference championship game unscathed (2009 Florida and 2013 Ohio State), and twice won the conference title with a single loss (2006 and 2009 Florida). That's a pretty good success rate of putting your team in position to finish in the top four, which is the new target range for teams hoping to compete for the national title.
2. A difference-maker at QB
Elite quarterback play may not be as crucial to being a championship contender in college as it is in the NFL, but every coach would still want an elite quarterback if given the choice. OSU's Braxton Miller isn't the greatest passer in college football, but he is elite because of his ability to make something out of nothing, a quality few quarterbacks possess. And he also improved his overall quarterback play last season, going from 29th in Total QBR (69.8 out of 100) in 2012 to 13th (81.6) in 2013.
With another step forward this season, Miller will be even tougher to stop. One area where he can still improve greatly is situational awareness. Only nine players in the FBS turned the ball over more times on first down than Miller (six), and nine of his 21 sacks also came on first down.
3. Superior talent
The Buckeyes have upgraded their talent level since Meyer arrived about two and a half years ago. And while they may not quite be on the level of the Florida States and Alabamas of the college football world, OSU seems comfortably ahead of the teams it must compete with in the regular season.
Because of this, the Buckeyes' Nov. 8 visit to Michigan State will be one of the few games in 2014 in which they aren't a double-digit favorite. Upsets always occur in college football, but it might take a big one to keep Ohio State out of the inaugural College Football Playoff.
4. A veteran defensive line
The defense was an Achilles' heel of the Buckeyes in big games last season, especially late, as they allowed a total of 115 points in the final three games against Michigan, Michigan State and Clemson. This offseason, Meyer hired Chris Ash from Arkansas (formerly of Wisconsin) to be co-defensive coordinator, and he also brought in Larry Johnson from Penn State to lead the defensive line.
Johnson will be working with a unit that returns all four starters from last season: Michael Bennett, Joey Bosa, Noah Spence and Adolphus Washington. They made a lot of big plays in 2013, but were inconsistent at times. With more experience and typical improvement, this group should give OSU one of the better defensive lines in college football.
Why they won't make the playoff
1. Offensive line questions
Meyer heaped a lot of praise on last season's offensive line, but four starters from that group have departed. The one returning starter is left tackle Taylor Decker, and after spring practice, it appears that at least three starting spots on the line are still up for grabs; that's not an ideal situation for a national championship contender, especially one that relied so heavily on its running game the previous season.
If the Buckeyes don't win at least 11 games this season, there's a good chance people will be pointing to the O-line as a reason why.
2. The schedule may be too weak
There's no question that an undefeated Ohio State team will reach the College Football Playoff. OSU's name and recent success and the track record of Meyer make that much certain. The big question is how Ohio State would fare with the selection committee if it loses a game.
What makes this scenario even more frightening for OSU is the possibility that the one loss could come at Michigan State. With the Big Ten's divisions changing this season, and the Spartans now being on the same side as the Buckeyes, an OSU loss in East Lansing could cost the Buckeyes a spot in the conference championship game; this would make their case to be included in the playoff even tougher.
Recruiting class
The Buckeyes signed the top class in the Big Ten, and a top-10 class nationally. They dipped into the Southeast for their top two prospects, signing No. 1-rated ILB Raekwon McMillan out of Georgia and top-five WR Johnnie Dixon out of Florida. McMillan, a big, physical run-stuffer, and Dixon, a speedy big-play threat, were both early enrollees and potential contributors as true freshmen. With this class, Meyer added some more speed and athleticism to the roster with versatile prospects like Marshon Lattimore, Curtis Samuel, Parris Campbell Jr. and Terry McLaurin. Losing four starters along the offensive line from 2013, it's not surprising that the Buckeyes brought in some youth for that unit led by promising ESPN 300 OT Jamarco Jones. Jalyn Holmes gives the Buckeyes an athletic prospect to develop at defensive end, while ESPN 300 prospects Damon Webb and Dante Booker Jr. help strengthen the secondary and linebacker units in this class, respectively.
-- Tom Luginbill and Craig Haubert
Bottom line
Ohio State has the talent and the schedule to make another run at an undefeated regular season, and that might be what it takes to ensure that the Buckeyes finish in the top four and reach the playoff. If OSU drops a game somewhere along the way, it may not have enough quality wins to give the selection committee a reason to rank it higher than one-loss teams from the SEC, Pac-12, Big 12, and maybe even the ACC.
For Ohio State to have a chance to go undefeated, the defensive line will need to be as good as advertised, and the offensive line will have to avoid being a weakness.
15 who made bad NBA draft decisions
There were 44 early-entry NBA draft candidates this year. Nineteen were drafted in the first round, and 10 were selected in the second round. That leaves 15 who went undrafted, and a few of those were relatively anonymous, including guys like William Alston (CC of Baltimore County), Antonio Rucker (Clinton JC) and Ta’Quan Zimmerman (Thompson Rivers in Canada).
Which guys made mistakes by declaring too early? Who either received poor advice or didn’t listen to sound advice? And which players who were drafted should have waited another year?
Here are 15 players who made ill-advised decisions to leave school early for the 2014 NBA draft:
This one always baffled me because the athletic point guard made his intentions clear before the start of the season despite the fact that virtually no NBA evaluators had him anywhere near the first round. Carson went undrafted and will almost certainly wind up overseas or in the D-League instead of spending another year in college trying to show NBA teams he could mature and work his way into the second round (and potentially receive a guaranteed deal) a year from now.
First, let me make it clear how much I like GR3 as a kid. He’s soft-spoken, humble and almost too nice. He was drafted 40th by Minnesota, and there’s certainly a chance he can stick with the Wolves. However, he could have returned to Ann Arbor, been the primary offensive weapon in 2014-15 -- which is exactly what he needed -- and turned himself into a first-rounder with a guaranteed deal.
The forward is caught in between positions, a classic tweener, and another year of working on his skills could have helped catapult him into the first round. Grant wound up going 39th to Philadelphia and now will lose a lot of playing time instead of being "the man" at Syracuse and developing so he can stick in the NBA.
Sometimes it’s better not to be selected at all than to go late in the second round. Christon went 55th and was traded to Oklahoma City -- where it’s difficult to imagine him making that team. Next season, Christon would have been the star for a Xavier team that welcomes in an influx of young talent.
I understand the 6-foot-6 point guard’s decision but still think his stock was at its lowest after a torn ACL in January took him off the radar for the three most important months of the season. Everyone was coming back to Boulder next season, and Dinwiddie, who went 38th to Detroit, would have become a first-rounder in my opinion.
We all missed on McAdoo when he was in high school/AAU ball. He’s not a lottery pick or even a first-rounder. However, he could have gone back to Chapel Hill, gotten his degree and maybe taken the Tar Heels to a Final Four. Instead, he went undrafted and will in all likelihood end up in Europe or the D-League. It’s sad because he’s a tremendous kid. The development just wasn't there.
He had made significant progress in his time with Thad Matta in Columbus and averaged 15.2 points and 5.9 rebounds per game as a junior. NBA guys already were questioning Ross after the season, and he gave them further info when he showed up at the NBA combine overweight. The 6-8 Mississippi native went undrafted instead of returning to school, getting his degree and potentially being drafted if he was in shape.
Carson and Johnson played AAU ball together not all that long ago. I understand Johnson’s thought process that he isn’t going to grow between this year and next season and likely won’t have a better season than he had as a junior. However, Johnson could have gotten his degree and potentially hung Arizona’s second national championship banner. Johnson wound up going 42nd to the Houston Rockets, and while he has a chance to make the team, it’s not going to be an easy task.
The mammoth 7-5 Canadian left the Aggies after a solid sophomore campaign in which he averaged 10.4 points and 7.8 rebounds per game, but another year of continuing to work on his conditioning would have helped. I’m not saying he would have played his way into being drafted, but there was certainly a greater opportunity if he had continued to progress both on and off the court.
The athletic, defensive-minded big man needed another year in school to work on his game. He averaged a double-double last season (11.5 points, 10.2 rebounds) but did it for an underachieving UNLV team. If Birch put up those numbers for a relevant Runnin’ Rebels team this coming season, he would have a chance.
There’s no questioning that Brown had a terrific season individually (19.9 PPG), but the Tigers didn’t make the NCAA tourney and there was an abundance of wings who could shoot the ball in this year’s draft. Brown has the size and ability to shoot, but he needed to take his team to the NCAA tourney and expand his offensive game.
If Clarkson and Brown had returned, the Tigers could have had a chance this season. My sources told me they might have done so if they had known that Kim Anderson would have been their coach this season. Clarkson was drafted 46th and will have a shot to make the Lakers, but his second half hurt him.
One of my favorite kids, Sampson obviously got bad intel from someone. He is a tremendous athlete who needed to remain in Queens and continue to work on his shooting. Instead, he went undrafted (as expected) and will have a tough road to try to get to the NBA.
He wound up being drafted 36th by Milwaukee and will have a good shot to make the Bucks, but he could have been a part of an LSU team that had a chance to make a postseason run. With Jordan Mickey and Jarrell Martin as sophomores -- and the addition of Josh Gray and Keith Hornsby -- O’Bryant could have gotten into the first round with another strong individual campaign coupled with team success.
I never quite understood this one. Kirk needed to come back for another season in college, but maybe he’d had enough and was ready to take the next step -- even if it means having a minimal chance of playing in the NBA.
GREENandYELLOW
2x...and defending
Ranking 32 NFL QBs by tier
You know you're onto something interesting when an NFL head coach requests a few additional moments with your laptop.
"Let me see that one more time," one coach said, leaning forward in his chair.
I asked 26 league insiders to grade every projected starting quarterback on a 1-5 scale, with "one" reserved for the best and "five" for the worst. Eight general managers, two former GMs, four pro personnel evaluators, seven coordinators, two head coaches, two position coaches and a top executive participated, attacking the project with gusto almost across the board.
The result of the polling is a composite ranking of all 32 NFL starting quarterbacks, and an understanding of how some of the league's most important evaluators separate the best from the rest at the position. With their input, we were able to compile an average rating of each QB, to rank them in a 1-32 pecking order, and to divide the starters into general tiers. I've passed along insights from voters when applicable.
Five QBs cracked Tier 1, including one surprise. Ten other QBs fell into Tier 2 and nine landed in Tier 3. The remaining eight starters fell into Tier 4. Five of them received nearly as many Tier 5 votes, but not enough to drop any of them into that bottom level.
"That is a pretty good consensus of where we are at in the league," one of the GMs said upon surveying the overall results.
The head coach referenced earlier has finished staring at the results. Now, it's your turn.
Explaining the tiers
• Once we had averaged the results for each QB, we rounded the numbers to the nearest tiers -- so that a 2.49 would round to Tier 2 and a 2.50 would round to Tier 3, and so on.
• Alok Pattani of ESPN Stats & Information added one point for every one-tier gap between a QB's average tier level and a voter's ballot. For example: placing Luck in Tier 1 created a 13-point penalty, counting one point for the 11 voters placing him in Tier 2 (one tier removed from his average) and two points for the one person who placed him in the Tier 3 (two tiers removed). Moving Luck into the second tier created a 15-point penalty (14 points for the 14 first-tier votes and one point for the single third-tier vote). This linear penalty system bumped Luck into Tier 1.
Tier 1 (5)
T-1. Tom Brady, New England Patriots (1.04 average rating)
I was deep into this project when ESPN Insider published Sam Monson's piece highlighting Brady's diminished production while under pressure. Monson questioned Brady's status as one of the top five QBs. Still, none of the people I spoke with thought Brady had slipped to a significant degree. Twenty-five of the 26 voters put him in the first tier. The lone exception, a pro personnel evaluator, saved his only Tier 1 vote for Peyton Manning. He was an unusually tough grader at the top, focused more intently than others on the 2013 season, when Manning performed at a historic level.
"Brady did a lot of good things with limited resources, but I saw holes when they put the onus on him to carry it all, as you saw when Denver beat him," this evaluator said. "Brady has to have more of a running game at this stage. He cannot line up with five wides and win it as consistently as before. I still think Brady is a top-five quarterback, but I would not say he is the best right now."
That was a minority opinion. A veteran offensive assistant who listed Manning, Rodgers, Brady, Brees and Luck as his Tier 1 QBs said the first three were pretty much interchangeable.
"Brady might be the best because he does it with the least every year, just about," this offensive assistant said. "To me, there is no falloff with that guy. If he played with what Rodgers and Peyton and Brees have played with, it would not even be close. He has not had an outside guy since Randy Moss. These other guys have outside guys coming out of their ears, especially Peyton and Rodgers. It is such a difference when you have outside guys that can stretch, like Manning had in Indy. Then he'd kill you with the inside guys. Brady doesn't have half the skill players that Manning has. The thing that is scary is that sneakily, the Patriots were pretty good last year anyway."
From 2006 through 2012, Brady trailed only Manning in Total QBR at 74.8. That figure fell off to 48.6 through eight games last season as the Patriots lost nearly all their top weapons, but it was back to 73.1 over the final eight games, fourth-best in the league over that span.
T-1. Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos (1.04 average rating)
Not much explanation required here. All Manning did last season was set an NFL record with 55 touchdown passes.
One of the evaluators with a background in pro personnel nearly gave Manning a Tier 2 grade on our first run through the ballot. Then, he started laughing.
"As soon as I said two, I was like, 'Really?' " the evaluator said. "Arm strength is such an issue at this point and the smart teams are going to neutralize him easier than others, but he is a one."
Manning received his only Tier 2 grade from a GM concerned that the QB's age had hampered his ability to avoid the rush. Brady, Brees and Rodgers were the only Tier 1 QBs on this GM's ballot. Exceptions such as these could say more about the voting process than the players. "It's an incredible accomplishment if you can get everyone in the building on the same scale," another GM said.
T-1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers (1.04 average rating)
If Rodgers gives up anything to Brady and Manning before the snap -- which is debatable -- his athletic ability seems to make up for it.
"You can't fool him," a defensive coordinator said. "We watched some cutups on him and he was ridiculous. He sees everything. They'd have a blitz on and he'd throw it and he knows what the blitz is. I don't know how he knows it. He throws into this tight window that nobody would throw into. Brees is the same way."
A veteran cornerback I talked to this offseason put it this way: "He is very cerebral. I don't think he is quite like a Peyton Manning, but he can read defenses and all that stuff, and when stuff breaks down, he is mobile enough to get out of the pocket and run. That is what made him so good, especially a couple years ago. He is still playing well. He just got hurt last year."
T-1. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints (1.04 average rating)
Brees' credentials need no explanation. Still, most placed him just behind Brady and Manning within the top tier.
One evaluator said he thought Brees wasn't as good outdoors. But Brady wasn't any better statistically in outdoor road games last season. Among Tier 1 QBs, only Manning (83.0 QBR) and Luck (59.1) were particularly good in outdoor road games.
"The best guys bring everyone else's level up and the guys around them can change and they still play at a high level," an offensive coordinator said. "You saw that comment by Brees talking about Jimmy Graham and he was saying, 'Well, Jimmy is really good, but I've been here for eight years and Jimmy was not here for four of those years and we still had the big numbers.' With these Tier 1 guys, they're productive almost regardless."
One evaluator questioned whether Brees could hang with the other Tier 1 players when his team fell behind by 21 or 28 points. Since 2010, counting the playoffs, Brady is 2-1 and Manning is 1-3 when their teams fall behind by 21-28 points. Their QBR scores were exceptional in those situations (90.9 for Brady and 88.3 for Manning). Rodgers went 0-2 in those games, but played respectably (64.6 QBR). Brees, meanwhile, had an 0-5 record in these games and a 52.6 QBR.
5. Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (1.50 average rating)
Luck doesn't have the track record of the other Tier 1 QBs, and there was a clear gap in the voting between him and the top four. But people in the league love him almost unconditionally, and 14 of the 26 voters insisted upon putting him in the top tier (each of the top four received 25 of 26 Tier 1 votes).
I was deep into this project when ESPN Insider published Sam Monson's piece highlighting Brady's diminished production while under pressure. Monson questioned Brady's status as one of the top five QBs. Still, none of the people I spoke with thought Brady had slipped to a significant degree. Twenty-five of the 26 voters put him in the first tier. The lone exception, a pro personnel evaluator, saved his only Tier 1 vote for Peyton Manning. He was an unusually tough grader at the top, focused more intently than others on the 2013 season, when Manning performed at a historic level.
"Brady did a lot of good things with limited resources, but I saw holes when they put the onus on him to carry it all, as you saw when Denver beat him," this evaluator said. "Brady has to have more of a running game at this stage. He cannot line up with five wides and win it as consistently as before. I still think Brady is a top-five quarterback, but I would not say he is the best right now."
That was a minority opinion. A veteran offensive assistant who listed Manning, Rodgers, Brady, Brees and Luck as his Tier 1 QBs said the first three were pretty much interchangeable.
"Brady might be the best because he does it with the least every year, just about," this offensive assistant said. "To me, there is no falloff with that guy. If he played with what Rodgers and Peyton and Brees have played with, it would not even be close. He has not had an outside guy since Randy Moss. These other guys have outside guys coming out of their ears, especially Peyton and Rodgers. It is such a difference when you have outside guys that can stretch, like Manning had in Indy. Then he'd kill you with the inside guys. Brady doesn't have half the skill players that Manning has. The thing that is scary is that sneakily, the Patriots were pretty good last year anyway."
From 2006 through 2012, Brady trailed only Manning in Total QBR at 74.8. That figure fell off to 48.6 through eight games last season as the Patriots lost nearly all their top weapons, but it was back to 73.1 over the final eight games, fourth-best in the league over that span.
Not much explanation required here. All Manning did last season was set an NFL record with 55 touchdown passes.
One of the evaluators with a background in pro personnel nearly gave Manning a Tier 2 grade on our first run through the ballot. Then, he started laughing.
"As soon as I said two, I was like, 'Really?' " the evaluator said. "Arm strength is such an issue at this point and the smart teams are going to neutralize him easier than others, but he is a one."
Manning received his only Tier 2 grade from a GM concerned that the QB's age had hampered his ability to avoid the rush. Brady, Brees and Rodgers were the only Tier 1 QBs on this GM's ballot. Exceptions such as these could say more about the voting process than the players. "It's an incredible accomplishment if you can get everyone in the building on the same scale," another GM said.
If Rodgers gives up anything to Brady and Manning before the snap -- which is debatable -- his athletic ability seems to make up for it.
"You can't fool him," a defensive coordinator said. "We watched some cutups on him and he was ridiculous. He sees everything. They'd have a blitz on and he'd throw it and he knows what the blitz is. I don't know how he knows it. He throws into this tight window that nobody would throw into. Brees is the same way."
A veteran cornerback I talked to this offseason put it this way: "He is very cerebral. I don't think he is quite like a Peyton Manning, but he can read defenses and all that stuff, and when stuff breaks down, he is mobile enough to get out of the pocket and run. That is what made him so good, especially a couple years ago. He is still playing well. He just got hurt last year."
Brees' credentials need no explanation. Still, most placed him just behind Brady and Manning within the top tier.
One evaluator said he thought Brees wasn't as good outdoors. But Brady wasn't any better statistically in outdoor road games last season. Among Tier 1 QBs, only Manning (83.0 QBR) and Luck (59.1) were particularly good in outdoor road games.
"The best guys bring everyone else's level up and the guys around them can change and they still play at a high level," an offensive coordinator said. "You saw that comment by Brees talking about Jimmy Graham and he was saying, 'Well, Jimmy is really good, but I've been here for eight years and Jimmy was not here for four of those years and we still had the big numbers.' With these Tier 1 guys, they're productive almost regardless."
One evaluator questioned whether Brees could hang with the other Tier 1 players when his team fell behind by 21 or 28 points. Since 2010, counting the playoffs, Brady is 2-1 and Manning is 1-3 when their teams fall behind by 21-28 points. Their QBR scores were exceptional in those situations (90.9 for Brady and 88.3 for Manning). Rodgers went 0-2 in those games, but played respectably (64.6 QBR). Brees, meanwhile, had an 0-5 record in these games and a 52.6 QBR.
Luck doesn't have the track record of the other Tier 1 QBs, and there was a clear gap in the voting between him and the top four. But people in the league love him almost unconditionally, and 14 of the 26 voters insisted upon putting him in the top tier (each of the top four received 25 of 26 Tier 1 votes).
Tier 2 (10)
6. Philip Rivers, San Diego Chargers (1.77 average rating)
Quite a few analysts said they would ideally put Rivers and Roethlisberger in the 1.5 range -- better than the typical Tier 2 player, but not as dynamic as the Tier 1 QBs. Eighteen of the 26 voters placed Rivers in the second tier. The same was true for Roethlisberger.
"Rivers can't run, but he can throw and he's smart," a defensive coordinator said. "He is definitely a two to me -- a real good quarterback."
Another defensive coordinator put Rivers in his first tier with Brees, Brady, Rodgers and Peyton Manning. He also described what separated the top-tier QBs from the rest in his mind.
"A one to me is a guy that -- he is going to get 300 on you every game and you kind of know it," that coordinator said. "He's a guy you are going to have to manage, you're going to have to try to disguise and do different things against because he has seen everything. Those guys see everything. The twos are guys you can get. Like Eli, you can get him on some things and can disguise some things on him. But [the twos] still run their offense, they have control of it."
7. Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (1.85 average rating)
One of the offensive coaches placed Rivers and Roethlisberger in the top tier. He noted that Rivers wins with his mind while Roethlisberger wins with his physical abilities. Several GMs said they thought Roethlisberger had declined into the second tier over the past couple seasons. "If you were there in Pittsburgh, you saw him run the no-huddle, you saw the command, you saw him run and make plays," a coordinator said. "Other people will not think as much of him. He is a very good quarterback, able to get himself out of tough positions."
Said one GM: "Ben plays big-boy football -- and regardless of what you think, he knows how to win the game."
T-8. Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (2.23 average rating)
I was surprised to see Ryan command zero Tier 1 votes and six Tier 3 votes. Nearly everyone said Ryan needed to prove himself in the playoffs. There was a feeling Ryan would never be able to carry his team the way the very best QBs have.
That's not a knock, either. "If you told me I'm getting a guy who can win 10 games and get you to the championship game and lose, I'd take it in a heartbeat," one former GM said.
The other former GM said it's become clear to him Ryan cannot carry a team. "I think he has potential, but I see a guy that is a little bit hesitant and cannot pull the trigger," this former GM said. "From afar, it looks like the more Matt Ryan has on his plate, the less productive he becomes."
One evaluator noted that Ryan has benefited from outstanding receiving weapons: Julio Jones can win jump balls; Roddy White, a former wrestler, knows how to fight for position; and the recently retired Tony Gonzalez was a master at using leverage to make life easier for quarterbacks.
One of the pro personnel evaluators called Ryan a "solid starter who will never be a top-five player" at the position. Another put it this way: "He's the most disappointing guy to me. He does not have a great line or run game, but other guys overcome that and are better than Ryan has been. You can throw stats away at some point and it's just a feel for the player."
T-8. Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (2.23 average rating)
A few evaluators questioned whether Romo had the mind-set to play at the highest level consistently. It's a familiar refrain in league circles, a feeling that Romo is an undisciplined QB playing for an undisciplined organization with a poorly constructed roster.
"People want to knock him," one GM responded, "but the guy has talent and is one of the top 10 starters in the league."
Romo is 34 years old and coming off back surgery, but he still could be in line for a "monster" season, one evaluator said. "But I absolutely believe they will not win big with him. As soon as he decides it's a clutch moment, his brain goes elsewhere. He loses focus and tries to create something."
T-8. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks (2.23 average rating)
Everyone likes Wilson. But not everyone loves him, especially when it comes to projecting how a 5-foot-10 QB would fare without a dominant defense and running game on his side. Still, Wilson came in ahead of Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III, three other young, mobile QBs.
"I love Russell Wilson," one GM said. "I like him for the intangibles, which Kaepernick has not displayed. I have Wilson as a three and think he might ascend to a two. I don't think he will ever be a one. Kaepernick has a chance to be a one, but he also has a chance to be a three or a four."
Evaluators across the board lauded Wilson for his decision-making, both with the football and in avoiding big hits when scrambling.
Still, some said they wanted to see more from Wilson in terms of decision-making and downfield accuracy from within the pocket. "He has a curl-flat wide open and cannot see it, so he spins out and rips it 40 yards downfield to make an amazing big play," one evaluator said.
A head coach said he'd rather have Sam Bradford than Wilson purely from a talent standpoint.
As noted previously, the numbers from Wilson and Kaepernick from within the pocket are solid, but that doesn't mean people in the league perceive them as effective pocket passers.
One head coach said teams with good game plans have taken away escape routes and made Wilson struggle. Injuries at receiver and along the offensive line have not helped. "I want them to win games from the pocket at some point," one GM said of shorter QBs. "That is what will separate Russell Wilson -- besides a great 'D' -- from the Doug Fluties of the world. Eventually, you made them beat you from the pocket and they could not do it. Maybe he ascends to the bottom of that one tier, but I see him probably more top of the second."
T-8. Eli Manning, New York Giants (2.23 average rating)
Quite a few voters paused and feigned anguish when asked to make sense of Manning following a brutal 2013 season. Seventeen of them placed Manning in the second tier.
"He is really a two when you supply him with the right weapons," a head coach said. "He is a guy that has the ultimate trust in a big wide receiver."
Some thought Manning would benefit from a scheme change this offseason, but most of the voters placing him in the second tier sounded a little apprehensive. "I see Eli having a hard time generating things on his own," one GM said. "I don't see a great decision-maker. He has never struck me as a take-charge, carry-the-team type of guy." That GM put Manning in the third tier. Another drew comparisons between Manning and the Kurt Warner who became gun-shy at times later in his career.
"Eli can go from a championship quarterback to throwing five interceptions in one game," an offensive coordinator said.
12. Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (2.31 average rating)
Flacco came in just ahead of Matthew Stafford, thanks to a couple of Tier 1 votes from evaluators honoring the dominant form Flacco showed during the Ravens' Super Bowl run.
"Flacco would be a guy that you probably either love him or hate him because he's a big guy, probably not the most mobile guy, and he's kind of got the droopy face, kind of like the Jay Cutler face, where it always looks like things are bad," an offensive coordinator said.
One defensive coordinator said he thought Flacco played with a grittiness that was appealing. Another saw shortcomings from a football standpoint. "He has a big arm, but he misses so many plays because he doesn't read defenses well," this second defensive coordinator said. "On film, you see guys open, but he doesn't throw it to the right guy."
13. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions (2.38 average rating)
There's a feeling among evaluators that Stafford, more than any other QB outside the top five, has the talent to ascend into the first tier. He is arguably the most intriguing starter in the league.
"I've watched Stafford a lot and some of the decision-making is questionable," a defensive coordinator said. "[But] as a talent, I would have drafted the kid No. 1 when he was coming out of Georgia."
A head coach said it's critical for Stafford to work on his mechanics the way Brady and Peyton Manning have done over the years.
14. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (2.50 average rating)
Evaluators want to see more from Kaepernick as a reader of defenses, playing within the pocket. They acknowledge his strong arm and dynamic running ability: Kaepernick, like Wilson, has good passing stats from within the pocket, with or without play-action. But there's still a perception around the league that neither is proven in that area.
"Kaepernick can affect the game on so many levels," a defensive coordinator said. "He's been to a Super Bowl, been in a championship game. He has kind of revolutionized some stuff. He is a different kind of 'two' than most of them, more multidimensional."
Kaepernick, like Wilson, has benefited from a dominant defense and running game, and his team hasn't asked him to carry the offense week after week.
But he's been resilient. "Last year, there were a number of people injured and he still kept finding ways to win," a different defensive coordinator said. "Those kind of guys who show that moxie at quarterback, as a defensive coach, that does factor [in] to me. It is not necessarily all based on their stats."
15. Nick Foles, Philadelphia Eagles (2.56 average rating)
Foles just made the bottom of the second tier, even though three evaluators put him in the fourth tier, including one GM who called him "a four who played like a two" last season.
Another GM boldly placed Foles in the first tier based on what he saw last season. He kept Foles there upon additional reflection, but his was an outlying view.
Most wanted to see more. We've seen Matt Cassel and other QBs flash for a season or two before fading away. Still, the evaluators most familiar with Foles liked his future. When asked about the Cassel comparison, they thought Foles had a much better arm. But others wondered if part of one season wasn't enough to go on. "Foles could be like a Kerry Collins or Jake Delhomme, a three who plays like a two or four," one evaluator said.
Quite a few analysts said they would ideally put Rivers and Roethlisberger in the 1.5 range -- better than the typical Tier 2 player, but not as dynamic as the Tier 1 QBs. Eighteen of the 26 voters placed Rivers in the second tier. The same was true for Roethlisberger.
"Rivers can't run, but he can throw and he's smart," a defensive coordinator said. "He is definitely a two to me -- a real good quarterback."
Another defensive coordinator put Rivers in his first tier with Brees, Brady, Rodgers and Peyton Manning. He also described what separated the top-tier QBs from the rest in his mind.
"A one to me is a guy that -- he is going to get 300 on you every game and you kind of know it," that coordinator said. "He's a guy you are going to have to manage, you're going to have to try to disguise and do different things against because he has seen everything. Those guys see everything. The twos are guys you can get. Like Eli, you can get him on some things and can disguise some things on him. But [the twos] still run their offense, they have control of it."
One of the offensive coaches placed Rivers and Roethlisberger in the top tier. He noted that Rivers wins with his mind while Roethlisberger wins with his physical abilities. Several GMs said they thought Roethlisberger had declined into the second tier over the past couple seasons. "If you were there in Pittsburgh, you saw him run the no-huddle, you saw the command, you saw him run and make plays," a coordinator said. "Other people will not think as much of him. He is a very good quarterback, able to get himself out of tough positions."
Said one GM: "Ben plays big-boy football -- and regardless of what you think, he knows how to win the game."
I was surprised to see Ryan command zero Tier 1 votes and six Tier 3 votes. Nearly everyone said Ryan needed to prove himself in the playoffs. There was a feeling Ryan would never be able to carry his team the way the very best QBs have.
That's not a knock, either. "If you told me I'm getting a guy who can win 10 games and get you to the championship game and lose, I'd take it in a heartbeat," one former GM said.
The other former GM said it's become clear to him Ryan cannot carry a team. "I think he has potential, but I see a guy that is a little bit hesitant and cannot pull the trigger," this former GM said. "From afar, it looks like the more Matt Ryan has on his plate, the less productive he becomes."
One evaluator noted that Ryan has benefited from outstanding receiving weapons: Julio Jones can win jump balls; Roddy White, a former wrestler, knows how to fight for position; and the recently retired Tony Gonzalez was a master at using leverage to make life easier for quarterbacks.
One of the pro personnel evaluators called Ryan a "solid starter who will never be a top-five player" at the position. Another put it this way: "He's the most disappointing guy to me. He does not have a great line or run game, but other guys overcome that and are better than Ryan has been. You can throw stats away at some point and it's just a feel for the player."
A few evaluators questioned whether Romo had the mind-set to play at the highest level consistently. It's a familiar refrain in league circles, a feeling that Romo is an undisciplined QB playing for an undisciplined organization with a poorly constructed roster.
"People want to knock him," one GM responded, "but the guy has talent and is one of the top 10 starters in the league."
Romo is 34 years old and coming off back surgery, but he still could be in line for a "monster" season, one evaluator said. "But I absolutely believe they will not win big with him. As soon as he decides it's a clutch moment, his brain goes elsewhere. He loses focus and tries to create something."
Everyone likes Wilson. But not everyone loves him, especially when it comes to projecting how a 5-foot-10 QB would fare without a dominant defense and running game on his side. Still, Wilson came in ahead of Colin Kaepernick, Cam Newton and Robert Griffin III, three other young, mobile QBs.
"I love Russell Wilson," one GM said. "I like him for the intangibles, which Kaepernick has not displayed. I have Wilson as a three and think he might ascend to a two. I don't think he will ever be a one. Kaepernick has a chance to be a one, but he also has a chance to be a three or a four."
Evaluators across the board lauded Wilson for his decision-making, both with the football and in avoiding big hits when scrambling.
Still, some said they wanted to see more from Wilson in terms of decision-making and downfield accuracy from within the pocket. "He has a curl-flat wide open and cannot see it, so he spins out and rips it 40 yards downfield to make an amazing big play," one evaluator said.
A head coach said he'd rather have Sam Bradford than Wilson purely from a talent standpoint.
As noted previously, the numbers from Wilson and Kaepernick from within the pocket are solid, but that doesn't mean people in the league perceive them as effective pocket passers.
One head coach said teams with good game plans have taken away escape routes and made Wilson struggle. Injuries at receiver and along the offensive line have not helped. "I want them to win games from the pocket at some point," one GM said of shorter QBs. "That is what will separate Russell Wilson -- besides a great 'D' -- from the Doug Fluties of the world. Eventually, you made them beat you from the pocket and they could not do it. Maybe he ascends to the bottom of that one tier, but I see him probably more top of the second."
Quite a few voters paused and feigned anguish when asked to make sense of Manning following a brutal 2013 season. Seventeen of them placed Manning in the second tier.
"He is really a two when you supply him with the right weapons," a head coach said. "He is a guy that has the ultimate trust in a big wide receiver."
Some thought Manning would benefit from a scheme change this offseason, but most of the voters placing him in the second tier sounded a little apprehensive. "I see Eli having a hard time generating things on his own," one GM said. "I don't see a great decision-maker. He has never struck me as a take-charge, carry-the-team type of guy." That GM put Manning in the third tier. Another drew comparisons between Manning and the Kurt Warner who became gun-shy at times later in his career.
"Eli can go from a championship quarterback to throwing five interceptions in one game," an offensive coordinator said.
Flacco came in just ahead of Matthew Stafford, thanks to a couple of Tier 1 votes from evaluators honoring the dominant form Flacco showed during the Ravens' Super Bowl run.
"Flacco would be a guy that you probably either love him or hate him because he's a big guy, probably not the most mobile guy, and he's kind of got the droopy face, kind of like the Jay Cutler face, where it always looks like things are bad," an offensive coordinator said.
One defensive coordinator said he thought Flacco played with a grittiness that was appealing. Another saw shortcomings from a football standpoint. "He has a big arm, but he misses so many plays because he doesn't read defenses well," this second defensive coordinator said. "On film, you see guys open, but he doesn't throw it to the right guy."
There's a feeling among evaluators that Stafford, more than any other QB outside the top five, has the talent to ascend into the first tier. He is arguably the most intriguing starter in the league.
"I've watched Stafford a lot and some of the decision-making is questionable," a defensive coordinator said. "[But] as a talent, I would have drafted the kid No. 1 when he was coming out of Georgia."
A head coach said it's critical for Stafford to work on his mechanics the way Brady and Peyton Manning have done over the years.
Evaluators want to see more from Kaepernick as a reader of defenses, playing within the pocket. They acknowledge his strong arm and dynamic running ability: Kaepernick, like Wilson, has good passing stats from within the pocket, with or without play-action. But there's still a perception around the league that neither is proven in that area.
"Kaepernick can affect the game on so many levels," a defensive coordinator said. "He's been to a Super Bowl, been in a championship game. He has kind of revolutionized some stuff. He is a different kind of 'two' than most of them, more multidimensional."
Kaepernick, like Wilson, has benefited from a dominant defense and running game, and his team hasn't asked him to carry the offense week after week.
But he's been resilient. "Last year, there were a number of people injured and he still kept finding ways to win," a different defensive coordinator said. "Those kind of guys who show that moxie at quarterback, as a defensive coach, that does factor [in] to me. It is not necessarily all based on their stats."
Foles just made the bottom of the second tier, even though three evaluators put him in the fourth tier, including one GM who called him "a four who played like a two" last season.
Another GM boldly placed Foles in the first tier based on what he saw last season. He kept Foles there upon additional reflection, but his was an outlying view.
Most wanted to see more. We've seen Matt Cassel and other QBs flash for a season or two before fading away. Still, the evaluators most familiar with Foles liked his future. When asked about the Cassel comparison, they thought Foles had a much better arm. But others wondered if part of one season wasn't enough to go on. "Foles could be like a Kerry Collins or Jake Delhomme, a three who plays like a two or four," one evaluator said.
Tier 3 (9)
16. Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers (2.58 average rating)
Players with the ability to escape the pocket and run have less incentive to become polished pocket passers, according to some. That is one reason a number of defensive backs I've spoken with think Newton and others with similar skill sets might never move into the top tier.
One GM called Newton "phenomenal" and someone he'd pay to see play. He thought Newton needed continuity on the coaching staff and in the huddle. "He is a little bit like Ben [Roethlisberger] in that he is so physical," one head coach said. "But he is so inconsistent. I would say he is a three. Some days, he's a one. Some days, he's a five."
Newton appears to have no limitations. "I would say Cam Newton has rare stuff," a defensive coordinator said. "You don't worry about him getting hit like you worry about other quarterbacks. He would be at the top of the list for me as a three because he is not a rare thrower, but he has rare stuff. I could see him elevating to a two, and it might just be winning past the regular season."
17. Jay Cutler, Chicago Bears (2.62 average rating)
I thought Cutler would fall into the second tier based on his talent, but 16 of the 26 voters put him in the third. They lamented Cutler's inconsistency, poor mechanics, proclivity for turnovers and abbreviated postseason résumé.
A few evaluators thought Cutler took a step forward last season and could progress further now that the Bears' offensive line has stabilized. "For me, it's all about how impactful a player can be on game day," one GM said, defending Cutler. "The reason Cutler is not a one is because he is too up and down. But you talk about a guy that can beat you with his arm, and how many in the league can do it better than him? Now he finally has a line in front of him, he has more than one receiver. So, there is no way he is a three, in my opinion."
The Bears' failure to protect Cutler in past seasons arguably justified what some have seen as the QB's negative body language. "I don't know the kid," a defensive coordinator said. "I like him as a player. He runs their offense very well, he can make any throw, I think he has some toughness to him, some cockiness to him. He is as good as Matt Ryan. He's a two."
18. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs (2.96 average rating)
Smith was solidly in the middle of the third tier. A defensive coordinator familiar with Smith's career in San Francisco said he thought the 49ers' game plans demonstrated very little confidence in the former No. 1 pick. "It really did seem like he was just managing," the coordinator said. "The guy is an NFL talent. Can he make a play somewhere? Of course, they can all make plays. But it seemed like when they say managing it, it was almost like they were managing him. Don't let him screw it up. Not like he was managing the game."
Smith has heard it all before. Despite a Total QBR (51.8) that ranks 22nd over the past three seasons, he has the third-best winning percentage (.750, including playoffs) of any quarterback over the same time frame.
Even with a winning record, Smith doesn't receive high marks from evaluators. "There is nothing about him runningwise or arm-talentwise that makes you say, 'Shoot, we have to take this away,'" one GM said. "But he is better than an Andy Dalton because he protects the ball. Dalton does not protect the ball. There are just too many games he gives it to the other team."
T-19. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (3.00 average rating)
The people who like Dalton like him more as a person than as a talent. They love his approach to the game, his professionalism and his demeanor. They think the Bengals can win with him if they're strong enough in other areas. But most don't see him climbing out of the third tier, where 20 of 26 evaluators placed Dalton without much hesitation.
One person familiar with Dalton questioned how he'd fit under his new offensive coordinator, Hue Jackson. He described Dalton as a "sweetheart" and Jackson as a "badass who would punch you out" -- and as someone who wouldn't be afraid to give Jason Campbell a chance.
"The ceiling for Dalton is a three," one GM said. "There is not enough about him. With a Colin Kaepernick, does he read coverages well? No, but if things are clicking for him, he can throw fastballs. Dalton cannot do that."
A former GM called Dalton a "poor man's Russell Wilson" for his dedication to the job and the respect that dedication earns throughout a building. "With Dalton, if he is your quarterback for 10 years, you'll go to the playoffs five times and say he's a good QB," the former GM said. "But is he physically gifted enough to win it if you have to throw it?"
T-19. Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins (3.00 average rating)
Only five of the evaluators who cast ballots for Griffin placed him in the second tier. Fifteen placed him in the third tier. Five put him in the fourth. And when I spoke with a mix of players -- four defensive backs, two linebackers and two QBs -- they gave him a 4.1 grade on average. I decided against including the players' grades in the overall results because they tended to be exceedingly low. One GM put Griffin in the second tier despite some reservations about Griffin's personality. The veteran QBs I consulted separately crushed Griffin in that area. "He does not take any blame," one of them said. A head coach placed Griffin in the fourth tier and said, "I just don't think he can play in the pocket."
Health and durability are key variables. "Pre-injury and with [Mike] Shanahan and all the things they did [in 2012], I would put him in that two category with Wilson and Kaepernick," a defensive coordinator said. "If he is healthy, he adds a scary dimension because the kid can run and he is accurate enough, but post-injury, I don't know."
T-21. Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals (3.12 average rating)
Palmer is an interesting study because his production went from being pretty brutal through eight games last season (10 TDs, 14 INTs, 35.1 QBR score) to ranking among the NFL's best from that point forward (14 TDs, 8 INTs, 68.9 QBR).
Not many people seemed to notice. Twenty-three of 26 voters placed Palmer in the third or fourth tier. The eight players who gave Griffin a 4.1 grade on average combined to rate Palmer at 3.1, something I found interesting and somewhat surprising. "I really like Palmer," a veteran safety said. "He is a tough guy. I respect his game and his work ethic. I like the way he plays."
T-21. Sam Bradford, St. Louis Rams (3.12 average rating)
Just about everyone placed Bradford in the third tier, almost as a hedge. They thought he had the talent to be a solid two, if only he could stay on the field.
The harshest criticism painted Bradford as a player who struggles at handling pressure and throwing accurately on his second or third reads. "There are some guys like Cam Newton where you go, 'Oh boy,'" a defensive coordinator said. "You would never say that going against Bradford. We were just like, 'OK, let's go play football.'"
One of the head coaches thought Bradford had gotten a bad rap. "I don't think offensively they have done a very good job with him," this coach said. "Talentwise, I think Bradford has it all, but I'd have to say he is a three. He can stay in the pocket, he can make all the throws, he can check things."
23. Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins (3.32 average rating)
A pro personnel director put Tannehill in the second tier, but a defensive coordinator whose team faced the Dolphins was not convinced.
Either way, Tannehill needs better blocking. "To me, he is a manager of the game, a guy where if everything is right, he is OK," the defensive coordinator said. "We didn't fear him. I don't think he has the strongest arm, the best release. When you ask me about guys, I think about how I have to game plan against them. Am I afraid of them?"
One pro personnel evaluator placed Tannehill in the second tier, predicting good things for the third-year pro behind an upgraded line and within an uptempo offense.
24. Josh McCown, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3.52 average rating)
Teams will be watching to see how McCown's 2013 season in Marc Trestman's system translates to Tampa Bay. Some see a 34-year-old QB with no résumé before last season, when McCown arguably provided an upgrade from Cutler with 13 touchdown passes and one interception.
"We got ready for him last year and boy, did he have a good season," a defensive coordinator said. "I would have to put him in the three group because you have to factor age in there and it might have just been that perfect storm, but he played well last year. It could have been the system. Maybe it was right with the reads and what they did. Good for him."
A head coach called McCown "a four who played like a three" or better at times last season.
Players with the ability to escape the pocket and run have less incentive to become polished pocket passers, according to some. That is one reason a number of defensive backs I've spoken with think Newton and others with similar skill sets might never move into the top tier.
One GM called Newton "phenomenal" and someone he'd pay to see play. He thought Newton needed continuity on the coaching staff and in the huddle. "He is a little bit like Ben [Roethlisberger] in that he is so physical," one head coach said. "But he is so inconsistent. I would say he is a three. Some days, he's a one. Some days, he's a five."
Newton appears to have no limitations. "I would say Cam Newton has rare stuff," a defensive coordinator said. "You don't worry about him getting hit like you worry about other quarterbacks. He would be at the top of the list for me as a three because he is not a rare thrower, but he has rare stuff. I could see him elevating to a two, and it might just be winning past the regular season."
I thought Cutler would fall into the second tier based on his talent, but 16 of the 26 voters put him in the third. They lamented Cutler's inconsistency, poor mechanics, proclivity for turnovers and abbreviated postseason résumé.
A few evaluators thought Cutler took a step forward last season and could progress further now that the Bears' offensive line has stabilized. "For me, it's all about how impactful a player can be on game day," one GM said, defending Cutler. "The reason Cutler is not a one is because he is too up and down. But you talk about a guy that can beat you with his arm, and how many in the league can do it better than him? Now he finally has a line in front of him, he has more than one receiver. So, there is no way he is a three, in my opinion."
The Bears' failure to protect Cutler in past seasons arguably justified what some have seen as the QB's negative body language. "I don't know the kid," a defensive coordinator said. "I like him as a player. He runs their offense very well, he can make any throw, I think he has some toughness to him, some cockiness to him. He is as good as Matt Ryan. He's a two."
Smith was solidly in the middle of the third tier. A defensive coordinator familiar with Smith's career in San Francisco said he thought the 49ers' game plans demonstrated very little confidence in the former No. 1 pick. "It really did seem like he was just managing," the coordinator said. "The guy is an NFL talent. Can he make a play somewhere? Of course, they can all make plays. But it seemed like when they say managing it, it was almost like they were managing him. Don't let him screw it up. Not like he was managing the game."
Smith has heard it all before. Despite a Total QBR (51.8) that ranks 22nd over the past three seasons, he has the third-best winning percentage (.750, including playoffs) of any quarterback over the same time frame.
Even with a winning record, Smith doesn't receive high marks from evaluators. "There is nothing about him runningwise or arm-talentwise that makes you say, 'Shoot, we have to take this away,'" one GM said. "But he is better than an Andy Dalton because he protects the ball. Dalton does not protect the ball. There are just too many games he gives it to the other team."
The people who like Dalton like him more as a person than as a talent. They love his approach to the game, his professionalism and his demeanor. They think the Bengals can win with him if they're strong enough in other areas. But most don't see him climbing out of the third tier, where 20 of 26 evaluators placed Dalton without much hesitation.
One person familiar with Dalton questioned how he'd fit under his new offensive coordinator, Hue Jackson. He described Dalton as a "sweetheart" and Jackson as a "badass who would punch you out" -- and as someone who wouldn't be afraid to give Jason Campbell a chance.
"The ceiling for Dalton is a three," one GM said. "There is not enough about him. With a Colin Kaepernick, does he read coverages well? No, but if things are clicking for him, he can throw fastballs. Dalton cannot do that."
A former GM called Dalton a "poor man's Russell Wilson" for his dedication to the job and the respect that dedication earns throughout a building. "With Dalton, if he is your quarterback for 10 years, you'll go to the playoffs five times and say he's a good QB," the former GM said. "But is he physically gifted enough to win it if you have to throw it?"
Only five of the evaluators who cast ballots for Griffin placed him in the second tier. Fifteen placed him in the third tier. Five put him in the fourth. And when I spoke with a mix of players -- four defensive backs, two linebackers and two QBs -- they gave him a 4.1 grade on average. I decided against including the players' grades in the overall results because they tended to be exceedingly low. One GM put Griffin in the second tier despite some reservations about Griffin's personality. The veteran QBs I consulted separately crushed Griffin in that area. "He does not take any blame," one of them said. A head coach placed Griffin in the fourth tier and said, "I just don't think he can play in the pocket."
Health and durability are key variables. "Pre-injury and with [Mike] Shanahan and all the things they did [in 2012], I would put him in that two category with Wilson and Kaepernick," a defensive coordinator said. "If he is healthy, he adds a scary dimension because the kid can run and he is accurate enough, but post-injury, I don't know."
Palmer is an interesting study because his production went from being pretty brutal through eight games last season (10 TDs, 14 INTs, 35.1 QBR score) to ranking among the NFL's best from that point forward (14 TDs, 8 INTs, 68.9 QBR).
Not many people seemed to notice. Twenty-three of 26 voters placed Palmer in the third or fourth tier. The eight players who gave Griffin a 4.1 grade on average combined to rate Palmer at 3.1, something I found interesting and somewhat surprising. "I really like Palmer," a veteran safety said. "He is a tough guy. I respect his game and his work ethic. I like the way he plays."
Just about everyone placed Bradford in the third tier, almost as a hedge. They thought he had the talent to be a solid two, if only he could stay on the field.
The harshest criticism painted Bradford as a player who struggles at handling pressure and throwing accurately on his second or third reads. "There are some guys like Cam Newton where you go, 'Oh boy,'" a defensive coordinator said. "You would never say that going against Bradford. We were just like, 'OK, let's go play football.'"
One of the head coaches thought Bradford had gotten a bad rap. "I don't think offensively they have done a very good job with him," this coach said. "Talentwise, I think Bradford has it all, but I'd have to say he is a three. He can stay in the pocket, he can make all the throws, he can check things."
A pro personnel director put Tannehill in the second tier, but a defensive coordinator whose team faced the Dolphins was not convinced.
Either way, Tannehill needs better blocking. "To me, he is a manager of the game, a guy where if everything is right, he is OK," the defensive coordinator said. "We didn't fear him. I don't think he has the strongest arm, the best release. When you ask me about guys, I think about how I have to game plan against them. Am I afraid of them?"
One pro personnel evaluator placed Tannehill in the second tier, predicting good things for the third-year pro behind an upgraded line and within an uptempo offense.
Teams will be watching to see how McCown's 2013 season in Marc Trestman's system translates to Tampa Bay. Some see a 34-year-old QB with no résumé before last season, when McCown arguably provided an upgrade from Cutler with 13 touchdown passes and one interception.
"We got ready for him last year and boy, did he have a good season," a defensive coordinator said. "I would have to put him in the three group because you have to factor age in there and it might have just been that perfect storm, but he played well last year. It could have been the system. Maybe it was right with the reads and what they did. Good for him."
A head coach called McCown "a four who played like a three" or better at times last season.
Tier 4 (8)
25. Matt Schaub, Oakland Raiders (3.58 average rating)
Questions persist about whether Schaub can right his career after a brutal 2013 season. He is seen as a system QB. Ten of the voters put him in the third tier, but 15 had him lower than that.
"That will be interesting confidencewise coming off last year," a defensive coordinator said. "He is accurate, but I put him in that three category because the passes were underneath, boot type and then, here and there, they took shots."
26. Chad Henne, Jacksonville Jaguars (4.15 average rating)
Lots of people loved Henne -- as a backup. "He'll have one good game and then have trouble repeating it," one GM said.
27. EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills (4.24 average rating)
Manuel hasn't played enough to register with evaluators. Twenty-three voters placed him in the bottom two tiers. The two former GMs were higher on Manuel, placing him in the third tier. "I think he can beat you from the pocket and be an NFL passer and some of that is having studied him before the draft," one ex-GM said. "I still have some belief in him. EJ has some intangibles. He can process information that the Geno Smiths and Jake Lockers of the world cannot process well enough to be good from the pocket."
A defensive coordinator whose team faced the Bills last season questioned Buffalo's approach. "They tried to run some Cam Newton stuff with him, but I think he is a pocket passer," the coordinator said. "What are they doing with him? He may be a three-minus, but I would give him a four right now."
28. Matt Cassel, Minnesota Vikings (4.27 average rating)
Cassel was at his best in New England and Kansas City under Charlie Weis. There's some thought among evaluators that he has a tendency to hold the ball and stare down his receivers in the absence of proactive coaching. Perhaps Norv Turner can help him out. "Everything has to be right to win games with him," a GM said.
29. Brian Hoyer, Cleveland Browns (4.28 average rating)
Hoyer and Henne drew positive reviews as backups, but not as starters. "Hoyer is a great backup," one defensive coordinator said. "He can win some games for you, but if he had to start all 16, that's going to be tough."
A head coach put it this way: "He is a four leaning toward a three, but he is a four. He is OK. He is smart. He gets the ball out quick. He knows what he's doing in the New England system. He was playing pretty well for the Browns last year before he got hurt."
30. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Houston Texans (4.35 average rating)
Fitzpatrick ranked a respectable 16th in Total QBR last season (55.4). That was better than the figures for Roethlisberger (54.3) or Stafford (52.5), but the reviews from evaluators were almost universally negative -- overly so, in my opinion.
"The one thing he gives you is, he is not a statue in the pocket," a former head coach said. "At least he can move around a little bit. He would rather play empty-set football. It's kind of how he made his money in Buffalo. I don't know that Bill O'Brien is going to do that with him in Houston."
31. Jake Locker, Tennessee Titans (4.42 average rating)
The Titans were 4-3 when Locker started last season. He had eight TD passes, four INTs and a respectable 58.1 QBR score. That seemed encouraging, and yet compliments for Locker were scarce.
"Locker never showed from college that he could do it from the pocket," one GM said.
The hope in Tennessee is that a new coaching staff and better luck with injuries could help Locker ascend to a higher tier. "We'll see," a former GM said. "Guys like Locker can be run-around guys. To me, Jake's die has been cast."
32. Geno Smith, New York Jets (4.48 average rating)
It's too early to write off Smith. Some coaches in particular had a hard time placing any QBs in the fifth tier. To them, a Tier 5 QB would be a backup, not a starter.
"Would a five be an Akili Smith or JaMarcus Russell?" one coordinator asked. "I think the way Geno Smith played last year was close to that. He was a rookie and he struggled and some of his reads were poor, but I would give him a four."
"He is young enough to make a move," a pro personnel evaluator said.
Questions persist about whether Schaub can right his career after a brutal 2013 season. He is seen as a system QB. Ten of the voters put him in the third tier, but 15 had him lower than that.
"That will be interesting confidencewise coming off last year," a defensive coordinator said. "He is accurate, but I put him in that three category because the passes were underneath, boot type and then, here and there, they took shots."
Lots of people loved Henne -- as a backup. "He'll have one good game and then have trouble repeating it," one GM said.
Manuel hasn't played enough to register with evaluators. Twenty-three voters placed him in the bottom two tiers. The two former GMs were higher on Manuel, placing him in the third tier. "I think he can beat you from the pocket and be an NFL passer and some of that is having studied him before the draft," one ex-GM said. "I still have some belief in him. EJ has some intangibles. He can process information that the Geno Smiths and Jake Lockers of the world cannot process well enough to be good from the pocket."
A defensive coordinator whose team faced the Bills last season questioned Buffalo's approach. "They tried to run some Cam Newton stuff with him, but I think he is a pocket passer," the coordinator said. "What are they doing with him? He may be a three-minus, but I would give him a four right now."
Cassel was at his best in New England and Kansas City under Charlie Weis. There's some thought among evaluators that he has a tendency to hold the ball and stare down his receivers in the absence of proactive coaching. Perhaps Norv Turner can help him out. "Everything has to be right to win games with him," a GM said.
Hoyer and Henne drew positive reviews as backups, but not as starters. "Hoyer is a great backup," one defensive coordinator said. "He can win some games for you, but if he had to start all 16, that's going to be tough."
A head coach put it this way: "He is a four leaning toward a three, but he is a four. He is OK. He is smart. He gets the ball out quick. He knows what he's doing in the New England system. He was playing pretty well for the Browns last year before he got hurt."
Fitzpatrick ranked a respectable 16th in Total QBR last season (55.4). That was better than the figures for Roethlisberger (54.3) or Stafford (52.5), but the reviews from evaluators were almost universally negative -- overly so, in my opinion.
"The one thing he gives you is, he is not a statue in the pocket," a former head coach said. "At least he can move around a little bit. He would rather play empty-set football. It's kind of how he made his money in Buffalo. I don't know that Bill O'Brien is going to do that with him in Houston."
The Titans were 4-3 when Locker started last season. He had eight TD passes, four INTs and a respectable 58.1 QBR score. That seemed encouraging, and yet compliments for Locker were scarce.
"Locker never showed from college that he could do it from the pocket," one GM said.
The hope in Tennessee is that a new coaching staff and better luck with injuries could help Locker ascend to a higher tier. "We'll see," a former GM said. "Guys like Locker can be run-around guys. To me, Jake's die has been cast."
It's too early to write off Smith. Some coaches in particular had a hard time placing any QBs in the fifth tier. To them, a Tier 5 QB would be a backup, not a starter.
"Would a five be an Akili Smith or JaMarcus Russell?" one coordinator asked. "I think the way Geno Smith played last year was close to that. He was a rookie and he struggled and some of his reads were poor, but I would give him a four."
"He is young enough to make a move," a pro personnel evaluator said.
