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Best, worst NBA draft classes
The 2014 draft was initially considered to go down as one of the most loaded classes we've ever seen.
Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker, Joel Embiid and Dante Exum may be talented and young enough to one day get there, but the 2014 hype has cooled after some injuries and up-and-down college campaigns.
Where will the 2014 class rank among the best? It's hard to say. But we need a ranking first, don't we? To do that, I've dusted off the DRAFT Initiative database to rank the best and worst classes of the modern draft era beginning in 1989 when the draft went to the two-round format.
How do we grade each draft? By calculating each class' production in the NBA as measured by annual Estimated Wins Added, a value derivative of Player Efficiency Rating developed by John Hollinger. We're not looking at total raw EWA. If that were the case, earlier draft classes would have more EWA simply by virtue of having more seasons in the league.
To grade players on the same scale, we'll use annual EWA for each player since being drafted. Keep in mind, we're dividing their total EWA by years since drafted, not by played seasons. That way, we account for players who missed seasons due to injury (Greg Oden) or staying overseas (Ricky Rubio). Missed seasons hurt a player's résumé and therefore a class' résumé.
So which is the best class of the modern draft era? Which is the worst? Here's a rank of the top five and bottom five since 1989.
Get ready to size yourself up, 2014 draft class.
Best of the best
1. 2008 draft class
Annual EWA: 127.5
Not what you expected, huh? This is the deepest class of the last 25 years. By far.
At the top, there are some potential Hall of Famers in Russell Westbrook (No. 4), Kevin Love (No. 5) and Derrick Rose (No. 1). The next tier features All-Stars and All-NBA players in Goran Dragic (No. 45), Roy Hibbert (No. 17) and Brook Lopez (No. 10). That's some serious high-end talent.
But that's not where this class shines. The list of near All-Stars is astounding. Serge Ibaka, Ryan Anderson, DeAndre Jordan, Eric Gordon, Danilo Gallinari, Nikola Pekovic, Nic Batum and Omer Asik all were part of the 2008 class. Sure, Michael Beasley and O.J. Mayo haven't lived up to expectations as top-five picks, but this class was absolutely stacked with talent from start to finish. Consider that this class has 14 draftees who have yielded at least an annual 4.0 EWA and the 2003 class has only five.
2. 1996
Annual EWA: 114.0
Perhaps only the 2003 draft can match this class' superstar talent. This crop boasts three former MVPs in Kobe Bryant (No. 13), Allen Iverson (No. 1) and Steve Nash (No. 15), which is more than any other class can claim. Throw in another Hall of Famer in Ray Allen (No. 5), a defensive player of the year in Marcus Camby (No. 2) and all-time "shimmier" Antoine Walker (No. 6) and you have the makings of one of the best draft classes ever.
All in all, the 10 All-Stars in this class (Bryant, Iverson, Nash, Allen, Walker, Jermaine O'Neal, Peja Stojakovic, Stephon Marbury, Zydrunas Ilgauskas and Shareef Abdur-Rahim) combine for 62 total All-Star appearances, which is more than the 1990, 1991, 1992 and 1993 classes combined. This group may not feature the sheer depth of the 2008 class, but if you prefer star power, then the 1996 class is for you.
3. 2005
Annual EWA: 113.1
When we think about draft classes, we tend to think of those who were picked in the beginning, which is probably why this ranking may raise some eyebrows. But the 2005 class has produced the most talent outside the lottery (59.6 annual EWA) with exception of the 2008 fleet (63.1).
Yes, there's All-Stars in Chris Paul (No. 4), Deron Williams (No. 3) and Andrew Bynum (No. 10), but the real beauty of this draft lies in the second round, where Brandon Bass (No. 33), Ersan Ilyasova (No. 36), Monta Ellis (No. 40), Lou Williams (No. 45), Andray Blatche (No. 49), Amir Johnson (No. 56) and Marcin Gortat (No. 57) were picked.
The 2005 class represents by far the best second-round crop in the study. Here's a staggering fact: The second round of the 2005 draft has produced more value than the entire first round in 2000. And don't forget about All-Stars Danny Granger (No. 17) and David Lee (No. 30) outside the lottery. Draft order didn't seem to matter in this one. Such a weird year.
4. 2009
Annual EWA: 112.3
Behold "The Point Guard Draft." It's hard to imagine a draft that was more fertile at one position than this one. It featured Stephen Curry (No. 7) , Ty Lawson (No. 18), Jrue Holiday (No. 17), Jeff Teague (No. 19), Ricky Rubio (No. 5), Brandon Jennings (No. 10), Darren Collison (No. 21) and Patrick Beverley (No. 42). If the NBA is in the midst of a point guard era, then this class is a big reason why.
There were some wild misses in this one, including Hasheem Thabeet at No. 2 (nope, still can't believe it either) and Jonny Flynn at No. 6. But this draft has really blossomed over the past season. Blake Griffin (No. 1), James Harden (No. 3) and Curry started for the West All-Stars, and DeMar DeRozan (No. 9) received his first All-Star nod as well. Plus, there were some great late finds in Taj Gibson (No. 26), DeJuan Blair (No. 37), Marcus Thornton (No. 43), Danny Green (No. 46) and Patty Mills (No. 55). This class already ranks this high and it's just getting started.
5. 2003
Annual EWA: 111.4
Most folks put this class on top of their list because of LeBron James (No. 1), Carmelo Anthony (No. 3), Chris Bosh (No. 4) and Dwyane Wade (No. 5) right off the bat. Even with the Darko Milicic bust at No. 2, this top five has yielded 22.4 more wins than any top five over the past 25 years.
But this class was exceptionally top-heavy. A whopping 61 percent the value of the 2003 draft was soaked up in the James, Anthony, Wade and Bosh picks. Outside of that quartet and David West (No. 18), most of the talent has dried up. Looking at the top producers in the 6-30 range, the 2003 class ranked just 10th in the study. It's worth pointing out that the 1996, 2005, 2009 and 2003 drafts are separated by less than three wins, so we're splitting hairs for these four spots.
The talent distribution of the top classes are shown above. Note that the bottom axis is the "nth best player," not draft slot. As illustrated, the 2003 draft class follows an extremely top-heavy curve while the 2008 class shows consistent depth above the rest.
Worst of the worst
1. 2013
Annual EWA: 7.3
Yes, 7.3 EWA. Michael Carter-Williams may end up as the best player in the class, and he barely shot 40 percent on a team that lost 26 straight games at one point. Granted, we have only one year of sample size, but the 2013 class has dug itself such a hole that it's hard to imagine it will be in a different spot on this list any time soon. Of the top 10 picks, only Victor Oladipo, Cody Zeller and Trey Burke posted a positive EWA last season; the 2000 class had twice as many in its rookie season. Can we just hit the reset button and lump the 2013 draft class with the 2014 class? Anyone opposed to that?
2. 2000
Annual EWA: 35.0
I didn't think it could get any worse than the 2000 class, but that was before the 2013 class had a say in the matter. Where do I begin? Kenyon Martin was drafted No. 1 overall despite breaking his leg earlier in the year. The 2000 draft class features only three All-Stars (if we generously count Jamaal Magloire), and none made it more than once. The entire 2000 lottery produced about as many wins (18.0 EWA) annually as 1998 draftee Dirk Nowitzki (17.6) did by himself. Five of the top seven picks were out of the NBA by 2010; only Martin and Mike Miller stuck in the league.
3. 1991
Annual EWA: 50.6
Even with the career-ending knee injuries at age 31, Terrell Brandon (No. 11) actually had the highest average EWA of the 1991 class. But looking at this class, that's not saying much. Dikembe Mutombo (No. 4) was one of the greatest defenders of his generation and Steve Smith enjoyed a solid career, but the rest of the top 10 underperformed according to their draft slot. Thanks to Doug Smith (No. 6) and Mark Macon (No. 8), Larry Johnson wasn't nearly the biggest disappointment in the draft at No. 1 overall.
4. 1990
Annual EWA: 55.9
After Gary Payton, there's not much to see here. The 1990 class made only 14 All-Star appearances, and Payton owns nine of them. No player other than The Glove made the All-Star game more than once. Hurting this class was how poorly the back half of the top 10 turned out; Felton Spencer, Lionel Simmons, Bo Kimble, Willie Burton and Rumeal Robinson were top-10 picks that performed like second-rounders. It's never a good sign when Toni Kukoc, Elden Campbell and Derrick Coleman are some of the biggest names in a draft class.
5. 2012
Annual EWA: 56.7
Anthony Davis (No. 1), Damian Lillard (No. 6), Andre Drummond (No. 9) and Bradley Beal (No. 3) headline this class, but it's worth noting that this doesn't incorporate Beal's breakout postseason. It's way too early to say anything definitive about this class, but so far there's an enormous drop-off after the first few big names. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (No. 2), Dion Waiters (No. 4), Thomas Robinson (No. 5), Harrison Barnes (No. 7) and Austin Rivers (No. 10) have all underperformed in their short time in the league. Draymond Green (No. 35) and Mike Scott (No. 43) have been good finds in the second round but hardly diamonds in the rough. With just two seasons under its belt, the 2012 class has plenty of time to improve its standing. Stay tuned.
1. 2013
Annual EWA: 7.3
Yes, 7.3 EWA. Michael Carter-Williams may end up as the best player in the class, and he barely shot 40 percent on a team that lost 26 straight games at one point. Granted, we have only one year of sample size, but the 2013 class has dug itself such a hole that it's hard to imagine it will be in a different spot on this list any time soon. Of the top 10 picks, only Victor Oladipo, Cody Zeller and Trey Burke posted a positive EWA last season; the 2000 class had twice as many in its rookie season. Can we just hit the reset button and lump the 2013 draft class with the 2014 class? Anyone opposed to that?
2. 2000
Annual EWA: 35.0
I didn't think it could get any worse than the 2000 class, but that was before the 2013 class had a say in the matter. Where do I begin? Kenyon Martin was drafted No. 1 overall despite breaking his leg earlier in the year. The 2000 draft class features only three All-Stars (if we generously count Jamaal Magloire), and none made it more than once. The entire 2000 lottery produced about as many wins (18.0 EWA) annually as 1998 draftee Dirk Nowitzki (17.6) did by himself. Five of the top seven picks were out of the NBA by 2010; only Martin and Mike Miller stuck in the league.
3. 1991
Annual EWA: 50.6
Even with the career-ending knee injuries at age 31, Terrell Brandon (No. 11) actually had the highest average EWA of the 1991 class. But looking at this class, that's not saying much. Dikembe Mutombo (No. 4) was one of the greatest defenders of his generation and Steve Smith enjoyed a solid career, but the rest of the top 10 underperformed according to their draft slot. Thanks to Doug Smith (No. 6) and Mark Macon (No. 8), Larry Johnson wasn't nearly the biggest disappointment in the draft at No. 1 overall.
4. 1990
Annual EWA: 55.9
After Gary Payton, there's not much to see here. The 1990 class made only 14 All-Star appearances, and Payton owns nine of them. No player other than The Glove made the All-Star game more than once. Hurting this class was how poorly the back half of the top 10 turned out; Felton Spencer, Lionel Simmons, Bo Kimble, Willie Burton and Rumeal Robinson were top-10 picks that performed like second-rounders. It's never a good sign when Toni Kukoc, Elden Campbell and Derrick Coleman are some of the biggest names in a draft class.
5. 2012
Annual EWA: 56.7
Anthony Davis (No. 1), Damian Lillard (No. 6), Andre Drummond (No. 9) and Bradley Beal (No. 3) headline this class, but it's worth noting that this doesn't incorporate Beal's breakout postseason. It's way too early to say anything definitive about this class, but so far there's an enormous drop-off after the first few big names. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (No. 2), Dion Waiters (No. 4), Thomas Robinson (No. 5), Harrison Barnes (No. 7) and Austin Rivers (No. 10) have all underperformed in their short time in the league. Draymond Green (No. 35) and Mike Scott (No. 43) have been good finds in the second round but hardly diamonds in the rough. With just two seasons under its belt, the 2012 class has plenty of time to improve its standing. Stay tuned.
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@Skooby any chance we could get http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draf...1803/how-far-joel-embiid-slide-2014-nba-draft
How far will Joel Embiid slide?
I was on the phone with an NBA general manager Thursday morning, and we were discussing how surprisingly predictable the draft was looking this year. Joel Embiid was going No. 1. Jabari Parker looked close to a lock at No. 2. Andrew Wiggins was a major lock at No. 3. The Orlando Magic had narrowed it down to Dante Exum and Noah Vonleh at No. 4. The Utah Jazz would take whichever of the two the Magic left on the table. To have the draft that predictable this early was ... nice.
Then the news that Embiid had a stress fracture in his right foot broke, sending shock waves through the NBA. The news spawns a host of questions, but here are the two biggest a week out before the draft.
1. Who will the Cleveland Cavaliers draft No. 1?
The Cavs were leaning heavily toward drafting Embiid after a terrific workout in Cleveland last week. Their biggest concern was whether they could get away with trading down to No. 3, picking up Thaddeus Young from the Sixers and still landing Embiid.
Oh, how things have changed.
Embiid, I'm told by sources, hasn't totally been eliminated. The Cavs, like everyone else, are waiting to hear back from the doctors after Friday's surgery. But it's highly likely that they are going to go in a different direction now if they keep the No. 1 pick.
They essentially have three options: Wiggins, Parker or trade the pick. As of Thursday night, the Cavs were still looking at all three options.
Wiggins has never really been atop the Cavs' Big Board this year. However, a source close to the team predicted to me on lottery night that it'd eventually work its way to Wiggins. Embiid was a risk and too far away. Parker was ready now but didn't help them in the areas they needed help. Wiggins was the compromise candidate -- upside plus the ability to make an impact now, especially on the defensive end.
He worked out for the Cavs in Cleveland on Wednesday, and by all accounts had a strong workout. It's hard not to be impressed with the explosiveness of Wiggins, and it's clear he's been working on tightening up his game in a number of ways. Wiggins shot the ball well in the workout. The Cavs walked away convinced that he has the potential to be a good shooter someday. Wiggins has been growing on them, just like he's been growing on the Milwaukee Bucks.
Parker comes in Friday and will go through a similar workout. He's not going to be as impressive athletically as Wiggins, but he's more skilled and more ready to play right now. Parker was atop Chris Grant's board all year before he was let go, and there is still a strong faction in the organization that is behind Parker. But there are issues with his game. Parker is a terrific offensive player, but the team really needs someone who can start ramping up the defense. That's Parker's biggest weakness.
He's also still a bit heavy (he weighed 254 pounds with 11 percent body fat in the Bucks' workout). The team has also been working on slimming down Anthony Bennett to get him minutes at the small forward position. He's another offense-first type player. Are they giving up on him? And while Parker is a safe pick, can he really push them over the top into the playoffs?
That leaves us with trade options for the Cavs. Now, more than ever, there's a motivation to explore trading the pick. Sources said in the wake of the Embiid news that the Philadelphia 76ers, Magic and Jazz all made calls to the Cavs (and Bucks) about moving up.
The Sixers now have even more motivation to move up to No. 1. So do the Magic and Jazz. If the Cavs aren't in love with Wiggins and don't think Parker has the upside they're after, trading the pick to someone who values it more makes some sense.
The Sixers have several assets, including Thaddeus Young, Michael Carter-Williams and the No. 10 pick to offer. They also have loads of cap space to take contracts back. The Magic have the Nos. 4 and 12 picks, as well as veterans such as Arron Afflalo who could interest the Cavs. And the Jazz, if they would make Derrick Favors available in addition to the No. 5 pick, might be able to convince them, as well.
The Cavs have some very tough decisions coming. What once seemed like a slam dunk at No. 1 has gotten much more complicated. And until teams know what they are going to do, the entire draft is now in flux.
2. How far will Embiid slide?
We know that Embiid's injury is serious. Breaking the navicular bone in your foot is a major injury, as our own Kevin Pelton pointed out yesterday.
I've had teams tell me he could be out anywhere from four months to a year. No one will really know for sure until they receive updated medicals after his surgery Friday. Not every break is the same; some are harder to fix than others. Once we have a better timetable on his injury, we'll have a better feel for his draft stock.
But as of Thursday night, here's what we know: The chances that he goes No. 1 or No. 2 are slim to none. There are two other good options on the board in Wiggins and Parker, and neither of them has had a stress fracture in their back and foot.
But after that? All bets are off.
The Sixers took a gamble on Nerlens Noel last year knowing he likely would miss the entire season. Noel is now healthy and ready to play, and many feel he was the best pick in his draft class. The Sixers' timeline can allow them to be patient. Noel and the No. 10 pick could be their rookies this season. However, Embiid isn't a perfect fit next to Noel, and the Sixers have also coveted Exum. So I think the odds that the Sixers take Embiid at No. 3 are less than 20 percent.
The Magic have wanted a rim protector and could see an opportunity here. They too have another lottery pick and some flexibility to be patient. Nikola Vucevic has been more than solid the past two years, but he doesn't provide the Magic with the shot-blocking they desperately need. If Embiid makes a full recovery, he's a steal at No. 4. The problem for the Magic is that they have other needs, too. They need a point guard, and Marcus Smart will be there. They also need a stretch 4, and Vonleh is likely to be on the board. Can they pass on both of them for Embiid? I put the odds of them doing so at 50 percent.
The Jazz are intrigued, as well, but I doubt they'd pull the trigger on Embiid. They went into the tank this season with the idea that they'd bounce back in 2014-15. With Embiid, it would be another season at the bottom of the standings in the West. I don't think ownership signed up for that.
That leaves the Celtics. From everything I can gather, GM Danny Ainge, barring unforeseen complications in Embiid's surgery, wouldn't let Embiid slide past here. If Ainge can't land Kevin Love, I think you'll see the Celtics go into full rebuilding mode this summer, and taking Embiid, the guy who could end up being the best player in the draft, would have to be very tempting.
Other Notes
- Another possible scenario for the Sixers is to try to package Young and No. 10 to get a higher lottery pick. One potential scenario is with the Lakers. The Los Angeles Lakers have been looking to add young veterans to pair with Kobe Bryant, and they might be willing to move down a few spots to get one. Moving to No. 7 would guarantee the Sixers get one of the top young power forwards in the draft -- Vonleh, Julius Randle or Aaron Gordon -- or, if he slides, Embiid.
• We've had the Lakers really narrowed down to two players -- Smart and Randle -- the past two weeks.
Smart had a stellar workout in Los Angeles versus Tyler Ennis earlier in the month. It was so dominant that the Lakers will bring him back Friday against who they hope will be a tougher opponent: Louisiana Lafayette's Elfrid Payton. Payton worked out the same day as Smart last time they were together in L.A., but they didn't work out against each other. Payton worked out in a separate group versus UCLA's Zach LaVine and was dominant there. Now the Lakers want to see them together.
Randle wowed the Lakers this week in a workout. The Lakers are one of the teams who aren't very concerned with his potential foot issues. Randle has gotten in better shape over the process and was explosive in the workout they saw.
Both make sense for the Lakers. If they are going to keep the pick, they'll want a player who can make an immediate impact. These two are your best bets at this point in the lottery. Smart can be an immediate contributor on the defensive end. He's got NBA size and strength for his position, and he goes hard all the time. Randle already has the tools to be a big-time rebounder from Day 1 and, like Smart, he's got a terrific motor and toughness. They are Bryant's types of players.
The Lakers have also been trying to get in Creighton's Doug McDermott for a second workout after a very impressive first one. It's unclear whether McDermott is in the mix at No. 7 or whether they are interested in him for scenarios where they move down a few spots in the draft (like the Sixers-Lakers scenario described above).
The thinking on McDermott is similar to Smart and Randle. He's NBA-ready and provides an immediate NBA skill (spot-up shooting). If Smart struggles in the workout, or if the Lakers decide not to take a risk on Randle's foot, or if they trade down, McDermott could be the guy.
• Speaking of McDermott, he and Michigan's Nik Stauskas did a workout for the Kings, Nuggets, Timberwolves and Warriors in Chicago on Tuesday. None of those four teams were able to get either player in for a private workout, but they were able to schedule this meeting in Chicago.
The Kings have shown strong interest in McDermott. He's an unusual fit for a team that's loaded with gunners and is making a full-on effort to lure Rudy Gay back to Sacramento. But he and Smart are definitely in the mix for them. Payton is being considered, as well, although it appears the Kings are looking at him more for scenarios where they move down a few spots in the draft.
The Nuggets and Timberwolves have both been in the market for shooters -- although both teams have been among the most active in trade discussions leading up to the draft.
The Warriors don't have a first-round pick, though they've been trying to move up in the draft using Harrison Barnes as bait and have been involved in trade discussions centering on Kevin Love that could net them Minnesota's 13th pick (though the latest from Marc Stein actually has the Wolves demanding that the Warriors give them a future first-round pick). But I wouldn't read too much into the visit. While the Kings, Nuggets and Wolves brought large contingents of their staff to the workouts, the Warriors were only represented by Larry Riley, their director of scouting.
• One mystery man in this draft has been Michigan's Mitch McGary. He hasn't worked out for anyone to date, despite the fact that he's been practicing and playing in Chicago for almost two months. Is his back still an issue? Or did a team late in the first round already lock him up?
Both are possibilities, but I'm told McGary will have one or two workouts this last week leading up to the draft, starting with the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday.
• Finally, NBA green room invites have finally come in. Here is a partial list of confirmed invites to the NBA draft next Thursday: Wiggins, Parker, Embiid (who, per his agent, will decline), Exum, Vonleh, Gordon, Smart, McDermott, Stauskas, Ennis, Payton, Gary Harris, James Young, T.J. Warren, Jusuf Nurkic, Shabazz Napier and Rodney Hood.
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Why Michigan won't drop off in '14-15
Michigan’s John Beilein has never been an assistant coach. He has coached at four different levels (junior college, NAIA, NCAA Division II and NCAA Division I) and has won 701 games along the way. He has gone from driving the van at Erie Community College to the national championship game as head coach of the Wolverines.
What makes the upstate New York native so successful? It’s more than the two-guard, four-out offense. He’s an innovator, communicator, mentor and teacher. There’s nothing flashy about Beilein, but make no mistake: There is a quiet toughness about him.
Despite losing two crucial players last year in Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr. to the NBA draft, Michigan won the Big Ten regular-season title and reached the Elite Eight. Beilein’s task will be similar in 2014-15 as Nik Stauskas (NBA), Mitch McGary (NBA), Jordan Morgan (graduation), Glenn Robinson III (NBA) and Jon Horford (transfer to Florida) will not return.
Let’s take a look at why Beilein is one of the nation’s top coaches and provide an outlook for his team this upcoming season.
A program, not a team
Beilein has built a basketball program, not a basketball team, at each of his stops. He has an old-school approach that puts a premium on high-character, coachable players who are committed to working on their games and being good teammates.
He has benefited by having continuity in his coaching staff. His three assistants -- Jeff Meyer, Bacari Alexander and LaVall Jordan -- are experienced and involved. Each has a Midwest background and brings a unique perspective having worked or played for tremendous coaches.
Michigan's administration has made a significant commitment to its basketball program as well. It has renovated the Crisler Center and built the William Davidson Player Development Center. Michigan now has facilities reflective of a program committed to competing for a national title.
Recruiting to the system
Beilein has built a versatile system that puts a premium on spacing, cutting and skill. He recruits multipositional players and emphasizes player development. The system has concepts that remain consistent, but it also has nuances that constantly change and evolve as players’ skill levels improve.
Michigan's staff uses the new NCAA rules that allow coaches to practice in the summer to evaluate their players’ strengths and weaknesses. Doing so allows them to not only be in a position to play to the players' strengths but also create a program to improve their weaknesses. An example of this was seen with 2014 Big Ten Player of the Year Stauskas. As a freshman in 2012-13, he was a spot-up jump-shooter who played off Burke. Last season, however, he was a guard who came off ball screens and led the Wolverines in assists (3.3 per game) and scoring (17.5 points).
The Michigan staff recruits to its system and does an excellent job of seeing where a player is going as opposed to where he is. Beilein's experience coaching at every level has taught him to see more than a player’s statistics and where he is rated; more important is his potential. The coaches take into consideration a player’s age rather than his class when evaluating a prospect’s long-term future. This helps them speculate future possibilities.
As Beilein would tell you, they have also been fortunate. The Wolverines signed two impact players who originally committed to other schools before coaching changes. One was Burke (originally a Penn State commit), who eventually became the national player of the year and led them to the championship game in 2013. The other was Caris LeVert, who committed to Ohio University before John Groce was named head coach at Illinois. He’ll be a major contributor this season for Michigan.
Scouting the 2014-15 Wolverines
The 2014-15 Wolverines should benefit from a trip to Italy in August. They took the same trip four years ago, and it paid major dividends. Along with the summer workouts, it gives Beilein an additional 10 days to evaluate his young team and see it in competition. The NCAA has changed the rules that now allow incoming freshmen enrolled in summer school to not only participate in summer workouts but also travel before the start of their first year. This will be even more valuable this season, as the Wolverines will feature seven freshmen.
The Michigan backcourt will be very talented. Derrick Walton Jr. played valuable minutes last season, starting 36 games for the Big Ten champions. Walton, at 6-foot-1, is a good on-the-ball defender and can get in the lane and finish. He had a 2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio and shot 41 percent from 3-point range and just under 79.3 percent from the free throw line. He was at his best in late-game situations. If he makes a similar jump as Burke and Stauskas made from their freshman seasons, he will be one of the conference’s best point guards. He’ll be backed up by Spike Albrecht, a solid play-starter who understands the Michigan system and accepts his role. He has the ability to stretch the defense, as half of his shot attempts and makes are from the perimeter.
LeVert and Zak Irvin give Michigan two versatile, big and long wings who fit Beilein’s system. Both run the floor at all times, rebound their position and can shoot the ball to 3-point range (40.8 percent and 42.5 percent, respectively). Kameron Chatman, ESPN’s No. 38 overall recruit, gives the coaching staff another versatile combination forward.
LeVert is an excellent cutter and an aggressive driver with a strong middle game. He’s tough to keep off the offensive glass. If he develops into a ball-screen player, he will be one of the toughest matchups in the Big Ten.
Irvin has a scorer’s mentality and looks to shoot the 3-pointer off penetration and in transition. Over half of his attempts and makes come from long range. An excellent shooter off one and two dribbles, he must use his shot fake to set up his drive. Irvin needs to get to the line more, as he got to the stripe only 21 times last season.
Chatman, at 6-7, can play four positions and is the type of skilled hybrid forward who has excelled for Beilein in the past. He has long arms, is an excellent passer and can shoot to the 3-point line, but he needs to add strength. A left-hander, he is a potential matchup nightmare. The challenge for him is how he will handle the physicality of college basketball.
The biggest question for Michigan will be up front. Will it be able to post-defend and rebound? Last season, although the Wolverines lost McGary to a back injury, Morgan and Horford gave them an experienced interior. Although limited offensively, both were capable low-post defenders and defensive rebounders. Michigan was No. 2 in the Big Ten in defensive rebounding (just 31.2 offensive boards allowed per contest).
The Wolverines, however, were 12th in the Big Ten in blocked shots (2.4 per game) and 12th in offensive rebounding (31.4 percent grabbed shots after a miss). The problem remains, as they’ll once again lack a rim protector and dominant rebounder. Michigan will again have to rely on its wings to come back and hit the glass.
Beilein will rely on redshirt freshman Mark Donnal (6-9) and freshman Ricky Doyle (6-9). Both fit the Michigan system; they are excellent high-post passers and can shoot the ball to 17 feet. The concern will be whether they can finish on the block, rebound and post-defend. Donnal has a big body but could struggle at keeping bigger posts from establishing position. Doyle lacks the strength at this time.
I expect Michigan to play multiple defenses next season, mixing in 2-3 zone and Beilein’s 1-3-1 lane zone to offset the lack of a legitimate post defender.
The Wolverines will again be excellent on offense. Their perimeter game is skilled and creates matchup problems. The questions will be how long it takes for them to figure out how to defend and rebound and whether a roster with seven freshmen can handle the grind of a Big Ten season. But given the consistent success Beilein has had everywhere he's been, it's hard to bet against him as he reloads this Michigan team for another run at the top of the Big Ten standings.