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Top 10 international draft prospects
This year's 2014 adidas Eurocamp is in the books. It was one of the weakest fields ever, with just one potential 2014 first-rounder in attendance. But that doesn't mean this year's international field is weak.
Since the 2003 high point, when eight international draft prospects went in the first round and another 12 in the second round, international prospects have had a dwindling impact in the draft and the league.
Last year, the influence of international prospects in the draft picked back up a notch. A total of seven international players were drafted in the first round, led by Greece's Giannis Antetokounmpo. But none of the seven international players drafted in the first round went in the lottery.
This year's group of international players is even more highly coveted. While only five of them look like locks for the first round, as many four of them could end up in the lottery.
After speaking to a number of international scouts and NBA executives, here's our take on the top 10 international players in the draft.
Top 10 international players
1. Dante Exum, G, Australia
Exum is just the third international player in the past eight years to be ranked in the top five on our Big Board (Ricky Rubio and Jonas Valanciunas are the other two). He's also, far and away, the most mysterious. Only a handful of NBA GMs have ever seen him play live (at the 2013 Nike Hoop Summit) and even a majority of NBA scouts have seen him only once or twice.
So how does he go from that to being a potential top-five pick in this year's draft? Exum's strong play at the Hoop Summit and in practices against other elite talent, combined with a strong performance at the Under-19s in Prague this summer have many convinced he could be a Penny Hardaway-like point guard who has speed, quickness and an uncanny ability to get to the rim. His jump shot is still a question mark and his playmaking skills could use polish, but Exum's physical tools, background and skill set make him a prospect worthy of this lofty ranking.
2. Dario Saric, F, Croatia
16.7 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 3.2 APG in 33 MPG for Cibona in the Adriatic League
Saric was actually ranked No. 1 on this list last season before inexplicably withdrawing two weeks before the draft. Saric had a lottery "promise" from the Dallas Mavericks, and sources say he likely would've gone even higher to the Blazers at No. 10. He improved in virtually every aspect of his game this year but the questions about whether he'll withdraw from the draft again or insist on staying in Europe if he is drafted hover over his draft stock.
Strip all that away however and many NBA GMs regard Saric as the player with the highest basketball IQ of anyone in the draft. He sees the floor and plays the game like a 6-foot-10 point guard. He's had extensive experience and production for a player his age. He won the Adriatic League Finals MVP this year and has had success in places like the Nike Hoop Summit and Under-19 Championships.
Saric's greatest skill is his passing and ballhandling ability -- both of which are elite for a player his size. He also has proved to be a terrific rebounder and can be an aggressive scorer when called upon. Even his jump shot, once considered his biggest liability, has improved.
He's a unique prospect who could help many teams right now. (I doubt any of the players on our Big Board could produce in the Adriatic League the way Saric has this year.) But until teams are convinced he's committed to coming to the NBA, his draft stock remains in flux.
3. Kristaps Porzingis, PF, Latvia
6.9 PPG, 2.8 RPG in 15.2 MPG for Sevilla in the ACB
Porzingis has been steadily rising on draft boards as NBA teams smell a potential mid- to late-first round steal. His production, for a player his age playing in arguably the best league in Europe, is impressive. So is his size (some are now claiming he's cracked the sacred 7-foot wall), athletic ability (he's a surprisingly explosive athlete) and skill set (he can shoot 3s, create off the dribble and is a very good shot-blocker).
He's just not ready -- yet. He needs to add a lot of strength and toughness and polish his low post game. But as many of the teams that passed on Antetokounmpo learned last draft, sometimes it's better to go for the upside and be patient. The Bucks now look like they have a guy who should've gone No. 1 last year. If Porzingis had stayed in Europe, he would've almost certainly been considered a top-10 pick in 2015.
As we reported last week, Porzingis isn't getting past the Thunder at 21. But he could end up sneaking into the lottery given that the Sixers, Magic and Suns all have multiple picks this year.
4. Jusuf Nurkic, C, Bosnia
11.7 PPG, 5.7 RPG in 16.6 MPG for Cedevita in the Adriatic League
How bad is this year's center crop? Nurkic is ranked No. 20 on our Big Board but is ranked as the second-best center in the draft. In a draft really devoid of big men, Nurkic is being helped a lot just by his sheer size. And he's huge: 6-11, 280 pounds. He also has been very productive this season in the Adriatic League. Again, for a player his age, that's a pretty remarkable feat.
The questions on Nurkic center on his lack of athleticism and conditioning issues. The age of lumbering big men seems to have passed in the NBA and despite his size and feel for the game, there are questions about whether his style of game will translate to the faster, more athletic NBA.
He's turned out to be a pretty polarizing prospect. Several teams think he's a lottery pick. Several others think he's a late first-rounder. We've just met them in the middle with his ranking at No. 20.
5. Clint Capela, PF, Switzerland
9.4 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.5 BPG in 22 MPG for Chalon in the French League
Capela is crazy long and he's athletic. He can rebound and block shots and really finish above the rim. But as a basketball player? His so-so practices and performance at the Nike Hoop Summit revealed he has a long ways to go.
Right now a team drafting Capela is drafting him for his size and athletic ability. There's a little Serge Ibaka in him, and there's the rub. After watching how valuable a true rim protector was to the Thunder in their playoff series versus the Spurs, someone is going to take him in the first round and be patient. The question is where? Before the Hoop Summit, I thought his range was 8 to 15. Now it's more 14 to 25.
6. Artem Klimenko, C, Russia
Klimenko is playing in the second division in Russia, which means he was hardly scouted this year. Luckily NBA scouts got to see him at the adidas Eurocamp last year and felt he was one of the best defenders at the camp. He's huge (7-1 with a 7-4 wingspan and a 9-4 standing reach), he runs the floor well and has the potential to be a terrific defensive player.
But like both Porzingis and Capela, he's very much a work in progress. He lacks the strength to guard his position at the moment, he lacks toughness and he needs to add a true post game. In short, he's several years away from being able to contribute at the NBA level, but if he develops, he'd be a steal in the late first round or early second round.
7. Walter Tavares, C, Spain
6.1 PPG, 6.9 RPG, 1.6 BPG in 21.3 MPG for Gran Canaria in the ACB
Tavares might be the real sleeper in this year's draft. He's only been playing basketball (not just professional basketball, any sort of basketball) for four years and has slowly become a defensive force in the ACB. With his size (7-3 with a 7-6 wingspan) and shot-blocking ability, he's got a shot at being a true defensive stalwart someday.
But there are red flags everywhere. He's not a great athlete, showing almost zero explosiveness, he's still very much a work in progress offensively and his basketball IQ is still very low, which inevitably leads to foul trouble.
If a team thinks they can get him into better shape and continue the learning curve, he has all the physical tools you could want in a player. But you're going to have to be really patient.
8. Vasilije Micic, PG, Serbia
12.2 PPG, 5.8 APG, 1.8 SPG in 31.3 MPG for Mega Vizura in the Adriatic League
Micic might be the single purest point guard in the draft. He's a pass-first, team-oriented player who gave Team USA fits last summer. His high basketball IQ and size for his position are his main selling points. Micic really knows how to play the game and is a true leader on the floor. He was widely regarded by scouts as the best prospect at this year's Eurocamp.
But Micic isn't a great athlete, doesn't exhibit great quickness or speed, and is just a so-so shooter -- which doesn't help his cause and probably means he slides to the second round. But for a team looking for a floor general, he may be the most qualified candidate in the draft.
9. Bogdan Bogdanovic, SG, Serbia
14.8 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 3.7 APG in 31 MPG for Partizan in the Euroleague
Bogdanovic is a long scoring guard who can light it up from everywhere on the floor. He has 3-point range on his jumper, creates his own shot off the dribble and sees the floor well for a 2-guard.
His lack of elite athleticism, his turnovers and some issues with his buyout that may keep him in Europe another year or two mean he's stuck on the first-round bubble. But next to Saric, he's been the most productive European on this list and teams drafting in the second round think his game will translate to the next level if you're willing to wait on him to get free.
10. Alessandro Gentile, SF, Italy
11.4 PPG, 2.4 RPG in 25 MPG for Milano in the Euroleague
Gentile has a ton of experience -- he's been playing significant minutes in Italy since he was 17. Like Bogdanovic, he's an established scorer who can knock down shots from deep range or take it off the bounce. He plays with the savvy of a veteran who makes up for his lack of elite athleticism and, at times, poor shot selection. He can be overly aggressive, but for the most part, that doesn't scare NBA teams. While he's unlikely to go in the first round, the talent is there to be a rotation player in the NBA someday. His lack of defensive abilities will likely limit him to that role, but his aggressiveness and experience make him an intriguing second-round prospect.
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Crossroads Elite Camp recap
The Crossroads Elite Invitational is a showcase event for the best current freshmen and rising 9th graders in the country. Adam Shoulders and Kurt Stubbs do a great job of accruing talent from across the United States in order to make this a top-flight event. Here are a few of the top players I saw during the two-day schedule.
Best Prospect
Michael Porter (Columbia, Mo./Tolton)
Small Forward
Class of 2017
6-foot-7, 190 pounds
Porter is a super-smooth wing with a great future in front of him. There can’t be many in his class that can shoot the ball as well as he can, let alone have his size. He has grown at least four inches in the last year, and his athleticism is starting to kick in. Porter has a chance to be special. As he gets stronger and becomes more assertive he might challenge for the best in the class.
Best Wing
Paul Scruggs (Indianapolis/Southport)
Shooting Guard
Class of 2017
6-3, 185
Scruggs is an athletic and explosive wing scorer. He is always in attack mode and was the best natural scorer at the camp. He has improved his skill level and is now a capable shooter to 19 feet. Scruggs plays hard and plays like a grown man playing against little kids.
Best Upside
Kris Wilkes (Indianapolis/North Central)
Small Forward
Class of 2017
6-6, 180
Wilkes is another super-smooth wing with nice size and great length. He ceiling is very high and might end up as a 6-8 3-man when it is all said and done. His is a great stock to buy right now.
Best Big Man
Kaleb Wesson (Westerville, Ohio/South)
Center
Class of 2017
6-9, 260
Wesson was the most dominant big man in camp. He has great hands and nice girth, a great touch around the basket and can step out and hit face-up 17-footers. He is the son of ex- Ohio State Buckeye Keith Wesson, so basketball talent is in his blood.
Most Athletic Big
Tristan Clark (Converse, Texas/Judson)
Power Forward
Class of 2017
6-7, 190
Clark is an athletic 4-man with developing skill. He is a good rebounder and a solid shot blocker at this point and has a very nice upside. His length, athletic ability and growth potential definitely make him a prospect to watch in the future.
Most Fundamental
Wyatt Yess (Ballwin, Mo./Parkway West)
Power Forward/Center
Class of 2017
6-7, 195
I really like Yess’ game. He is an aggressive post player that knows how to score on the low block. He has solid hands and feet and has the beginnings of very good back-to-the-basket skills.
Best Point Guard
Justin Roberts (Indianapolis/Pike)
Point Guard
Class of 2017
5-11, 150
Roberts is an ultra-quick point guard that can score and distribute. He has really improved his decision making from a year ago but has retained his ability to put the ball in the basket. He is a decent shooter but could use a little more refinement in that area. As his national profile grows, his calling card will be speed.
Best 8th grader
Kamaka Hepa (Barrow, Alaska/Barrow)
Power Forward/Center
Class of 2018
6-7, 190
Hepa is a long and skilled post player that has advanced skill for his age and grade. Hepa has a chance to be the best prospect out of Alaska in quite some time.
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Draft rumors: Cavs mum on No. 1
With the NBA draft about three weeks away, here are the draft rumblings I'm hearing from around the league.
- Once again, the Cleveland Cavaliers are on the clock with the No. 1 pick. And once again, no one really has a clue what the Cavs are going to do with it.
Last year, no one -- journalists, NBA teams, even Anthony Bennett's agent -- had any idea whom the Cavs were going to select No. 1 until Bennett's name was announced. There were some rumblings the day of the draft that Bennett might be the guy, but nothing definitive. That obviously creates a lot of uneasiness and unpredictability throughout the draft.
This year, the Cavs are giving long looks to Joel Embiid, Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker.
Embiid is getting the first workout of the three. Cleveland will be the only team to get a good look at his back and see him on the court. If the Cavs commit, Embiid's agent, Arn Tellem, will shut him down, and that will be the only workout he does.
But don't expect that to happen. A team source in Cleveland said it's unlikely the Cavs will commit to any player leading up to the draft.
"We have to keep our options open," the source said. "Once you commit, your hands are tied. The good thing about the No. 1 pick is you have lots of options. Embiid is a great prospect, and he might very well be the choice at No. 1. But until you see all three and, more importantly, until we understand the trade market, it just makes no sense to make any promises."
While Embiid fits a need and might have the best upside of any player in the draft, there are several reasons the Cavs might not go that direction. Remember, last year they felt the same way about Nerlens Noel all year and eventually balked at taking him No. 1.
First, team doctors are going to have to get comfortable with Embiid's back. If there is any hint it might require more treatment or long-term correction, the chances of Embiid going No. 1 dwindle. The Cavs need a player who can play now, and the feeling is that Embiid, who already is the least experienced of the top prospects, can't afford to miss summer league and training camp. You saw what happened to Bennett last season -- they don't want to repeat that again this season.
Second, owner Dan Gilbert is pushing new Cavs GM David Griffin to make the playoffs this season. The Cavs' ability to do that will, in part, be connected to how much help they get from their pick this season. Embiid is going to have to make the case that he can help them now. I don't think that's out of the question. Most experts thought Embiid would take more than a year to be an impact player in Kansas; instead, by February, he was often the best player on the floor for the Jayhawks.
We've already gone over the cases for Parker and Wiggins and won't do so here. Parker is the obvious choice if the team wants immediate impact, and he would definitely fit a need if the team is convinced Luol Deng won't be returning. Wiggins is a compromise: He's talented enough, especially on the defensive end, to make an immediate impact, but he still has as much upside as anyone in the draft.
I think the Cavs' preferred route would be a trade that thins out their roster and adds a young veteran who can immediately lift the team's long-term chances. The Minnesota Timberwolves' Kevin Love has been the most mentioned pickup. But the Cavs also have their eye on other bigs, including the Chicago Bulls' Joakim Noah, the Portland Trail Blazers' LaMarcus Aldridge and the Atlanta Hawks' Al Horford.
- The Cavs aren't the only team open to trading their lottery pick.
Multiple league sources said there are a surprising number of top picks for "sale" this year.
"I thought getting a lottery pick via trade would be virtually impossible this year," one NBA GM told Insider. "It's not. There are a lot of teams in the lottery right now that would prefer a proven player. A lot of owners have lost their patience with the rebuilding process."
The teams open to trading their lottery picks? It's highly likely that the Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic and Utah Jazz are all holding onto their picks. After pick No. 5, however, things are much more fluid. Sources say the Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento Kings, Charlotte Hornets, Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns are all open to offers.
Although picks No. 5-14 don't hold the same value as top-4 picks in this draft (which explains why so many anonymous GMs are suddenly praising the middle of the lottery and questioning whether there is a top tier of four players), there still is a lot of talent at this point in the draft, and a number of bad teams would love to get their hands on a second pick.
While the Celtics, Lakers, Kings, Hornets, Wolves and Suns aren't likely to get All-Stars for their picks, they should be able to score players or multiple assets to help their teams right now. Look for the Bucks, Hawks, Mavs, Blazers and Raptors to be especially busy trying to move up or acquire a second pick.
- NBA team workouts have begun in earnest.
Getting good information about how players are performing in those workouts is especially challenging. Agents obviously have incentive to call and tell reporters that their client "won" the workout or outperformed a player vying for the same roster spot. GMs rarely want to tip their hands and often offer misleading reports about who played well.
But there are other ways of getting information here, and a week into the process there are a few tidbits I'm comfortable passing on.
Notes
- Indiana's Noah Vonleh continues to make the case that he's the best power forward prospect in the class. He held a workout for NBA execs in Long Island last weekend and wowed many of the people there.
"Vonleh was good," an NBA exec texted me. "Didn't shoot it well, but everything else was very good to ridiculously good."
Another exec was even more complimentary: "Vonleh's got elite physical tools and is very skilled. He should be in the same group with Wiggins, Embiid, Parker and [Dante] Exum."
While there are still strong cases to be made for Kentucky's Julius Randle or Arizona's Aaron Gordon as the top power forward in this draft, the momentum seems to be going Vonleh's way. He had his first team workout on Monday in Sacramento and will work out for the Lakers on Wednesday, the Magic next Monday and the Celtics on June 12.
- Marcus Smart, Tyler Ennis and Elfrid Payton appear to be getting early head-to-head matchups in workouts. The three worked out against each other Monday in Sacramento and are scheduled to work out again on Wednesday for the Lakers.
Smart also had a workout in Orlando. Payton has worked out for the Bulls, and Ennis with the Raptors. A month ago, there was a pretty clear pecking order with Smart at the head of that group, followed by Ennis and then Payton.
All three players helped themselves at the NBA combine, despite not playing in the drills. Their measurements and athletic tests were terrific, and all three were impressive in the individual workout sessions Insider saw in New York and Los Angeles.
I think Smart still has the lead over the other two and is most likely to be the second point guard taken, after Dante Exum. Depending on where Exum goes, Smart could go as high as No. 4 to the Magic.
Payton appears to be closing the gap considerably -- something reflected in Payton's move to No. 13 on our Big Board. Several team sources said he's in the mix for No. 8 in Sacramento after a terrific workout there. The Hornets at No. 9 and the Magic at No. 12 are possibilities, as well. I doubt he gets past the Bulls or Raptors in the mid-first round.
Ennis is also more than holding his own and looks to be sitting in that same range, between No. 8 and No. 20.
- Missouri's Jordan Clarkson was once projected as a first-rounder, but a slide in the second half of the season caused his stock to dip. He looked much better at the draft combine in May, and that performance has carried on to other workouts as well.
Clarkson has worked out for the Bulls and Heat already and has a workout scheduled Tuesday with the Raptors. A handful of GMs raved about him after he did a group workout for NBA GMs last weekend in Long Island. He seems to have moved confidently into the mix in the late first round.
- Louisville's Russ Smith is riding on a high since being one of the lone standouts in a two-day, league-wide workout the NBA scheduled in L.A. right after the draft lottery.
He has since gone on to work out with the Celtics, Suns, Thunder and Heat and seems to be moving into the discussion as a possible late first-round pick.
"Everyone knows Russ is one of the quickest players in this draft, and he can obviously put the ball in the basket," one GM said. "But I think he's been showing off that when he wants to be, he can be a guy who can really play point guard. He seems like a perfect change-of-pace guard who can score and speed up the game coming off the bench."
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Rookie
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Best college coaches at NBA prep
NBA general managers prioritize natural talent over just about everything else. But the NBA folks also take a look at where the player came from -- the college program and, specifically, the coach. Some guys prepare their players for the transition to the NBA while others don’t arm their kids with enough to make a seamless adjustment.
Here are 12 coaches who NBA personnel feel are superior when it comes to preparing their players for the next level:
1) Billy Donovan, Florida Gators: Donovan has churned out plenty of pros lately, and many of them are excelling in the NBA (Joakim Noah, Al Horford, Chandler Parsons, Bradley Beal). There’s a reason he’s as highly sought after in NBA circles as any college coach in the country. “He runs a lot of pro stuff and integrates a lot of wrinkles,” one NBA exec said. “He has an innovative playbook. … He just gets it.”
2) Ben Howland, TBD: I know Howland isn’t actively coaching in the college ranks, but NBA guys love his ability to prepare his players for their league. He helped develop Russell Westbrook and Darren Collison -- a pair of unknowns coming into college. He also coached Kevin Love, Jrue Holiday,Arron Afflalo, Luc Mbah a Moute, Jordan Farmar and Shabazz Muhammad. “Howland prioritizes toughness and defense, and those are two traits we love,” one NBA GM said.
3) John Beilein, Michigan Wolverines: He’s starting to churn out NBA guys lately -- Trey Burke and Tim Hardaway Jr., and Nik Stauskas, Mitch McGary and Glenn Robinson III this year. “Player development,” said one NBA scout. “Bottom line. He works on players' individual games. There’s a lot of shooting, of course, but every practice he takes 20 or so minutes to focus on getting guys better.”
4) Tom Izzo, Michigan State Spartans: Izzo doesn’t necessarily churn out a ton of NBA guys, but when they do get there they are well-equipped. The latest example is Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green. “Izzo demands effort in everything,” an NBA guy said. “The little things and big things are equally addressed and all deemed equally important. There are no shortcuts, no favorites. He demands preparation for opponents, and that’s a big deal. His guys tend to be smart, not always the best player but often the best fit.”
5) Fred Hoiberg, Iowa State Cyclones: The Mayor played in the league and was also in the front office for the Timberwolves, so he’s taken plenty from the NBA and utilized it in Ames. Hoiberg’s calm demeanor helps, and while he hasn’t necessarily produced a ton of pros yet, both DeAndre Kaneand Melvin Ejim have a chance to get drafted this year. “He puts guys in NBA situations and as a result has changed the game offensively in college,” said one NBA executive. “He runs NBA sets.”
6) Mike Krzyzewski, Duke Blue Devils: He’s adapted over the years and has earned the respect of all the elite players in the NBA through his role as the coach of the Olympic and national team. Some knock the fact that he doesn’t have a ton of NBA stars, but he’s coached plenty of quality NBA players. “He’s a great communicator and coach who can provide an experience that no other college coach can share with his players. In addition to college championships, he has coached and been around the best that have ever played and knows what it looks like,” said one NBA coach.
7) Bill Self, Kansas Jayhawks: There haven’t been a ton of NBA stars yet, but that could change with Joel Embiid and Andrew Wiggins -- who will almost certainly be chosen in the top three picks in the 2014 draft. Self has coached plenty of quality players, from Mario Chalmers to Xavier Henry and the Morris twins. “The way he pushes guys in practice and the way he incorporates pro concepts into his offense,” one NBA coach said of his strengths.
8) Buzz Williams, Virginia Tech Hokies: He’s done a nice job getting unheralded guys to the league, whether it’s been Lazar Hayward, Jimmy Butler, Jae Crowder and even Dwight Buycks. “He teaches defense, how to compete, work ethic, and you know you are going to get a tough-minded kid when he’s coached by Buzz,” one NBA executive said.
9) Rick Pitino, Louisville Cardinals: He churned out high-level pros back when he was at Kentucky and has done fairly well in Louisville with guys like Earl Clark, Francisco Garcia and Gorgui Dieng. Pitino spent plenty of time in the NBA and has his guys prepared from a conditioning and mental standpoint. “He may be a victim of his own greatness by getting the most out of his guys while in college and then their talent level and deficiencies show up at the next level,” said one NBA executive.
10) John Calipari, Kentucky Wildcats: He has no peer when it comes to recruiting, and while many NBA guys don’t feel as though the players improve as much on the court, they feel as though the experience off the court prepares them for the move. “Cal’s guys are all ready for NBA life,” one NBA executive said. “Media, attention, 24/7 news cycles. That’s where he does a great job.”
11) Sean Miller, Arizona Wildcats: He’s a guy who teaches toughness and defense. He did a tremendous job developing Solomon Hill, and he’ll be churning out pros in Tucson from here on out. “When you get a player from Arizona these days, you don’t have to worry about whether he’ll be prepared to handle all aspects of NBA life,” said one NBA general manager.
12) Tony Bennett, Virginia Cavaliers: This was an interesting inclusion since Bennett hasn’t coached a ton of NBA guys. However, Bennett did coach Klay Thompson at Washington State and Mike Scott at Virginia. “He has terrific attention to detail on the defensive end, and that helps young players [to] be able to get on the court in our league,” said one NBA type.
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Rookie
Ranking draft prospects by tiers
If there is one idea that rings true in virtually every draft it is this: Using the word "consensus" around the NBA draft is a bit of a joke.
Occasionally, a prospect emerges who is so clearly better than anyone else in the draft -- see Anthony Davis in 2012, Blake Griffin in 2009, LeBron James in 2003, Yao Ming in 2002, Tim Duncan in 1997, Shaquille O'Neal in 1992 -- but more often than not, choosing who to draft, even at the top, can be a conflict-ridden enterprise.
This year is no exception. We are two weeks away from the draft, and there are still major debates running internally within every front office in the league. If teams can't agree, internally, on the order of draft prospects, how can we create a "consensus" ranking?
As hard as it is for NBA draftniks to believe, there is very little agreement within teams, let alone between them, on draft night.
Last year's lack of consensus centered on the weaknesses of the draft. The Cleveland Cavaliers were deciding between six players a week before the draft, and they finally decided to take Anthony Bennett on the day of the event. There was a feeling that you couldn't go right no matter who you chose in last year's draft.
This year, the opposite is true. With so many elite prospects to choose from, it's a wealth of prospects that seems to be throwing execs and scouts for a loop.
"I'm not sure you can go wrong," one NBA exec whose team is selecting in the top 5 said. "Wiggins, Embiid and Parker. I think they're all going to have great careers. I don't see how any of them fail if they can stay healthy."
So, with no clear consensus, who do you choose to draft?
NBA teams watch prospects play thousands of hours of games. They go to practice. Go to camps. Hire guys from MIT to create statistical solutions. Work out players, give them psychological tests, do background checks and conduct personal interviews. And still, there is very little consensus.
Factor in the debate between taking the "best player available" versus "team needs" and the situation muddies itself further.
To make sense of all this, the past few years I've chronicled a draft ranking system employed by several teams called the tier system. In the tier system, teams group players, based on overall talent, into tiers. Then, the teams rank the players in each tier based on team need. This system allows teams to draft not only the best player available, but also the player who best fits a team's individual needs.
A more detailed explanation of how the tier system works can be found here.
So what do the tiers look like this year? After talking to several general managers and scouts whose teams employ this system, here is how things are shaping up. Note that players are listed alphabetically in each tier.
Tier 1
Joel Embiid
Jabari Parker
Andrew Wiggins
Last year, we didn't have any player in this category. This category is usually reserved for guys who are sure-fire All-Stars or "franchise" players. Since 2009, only Griffin, John Wall and Davis have been ranked in this slot. This year, there are three players in Tier 1 -- as many as there have been in the last five years combined. All of them received Tier 1 votes from every GM, exec and scout I surveyed. So if there is any consensus out there, it's that there are three really great prizes in this year's draft.
Tier 2
Dante Exum
Aaron Gordon
Julius Randle
Dario Saric
Marcus Smart
Noah Vonleh
Last year, Tier 2 also was empty for the first time since I've been doing this column. That should tell you something about how poorly regarded last year's class was. Tier 2 is reserved for players who are projected as potential All-Stars by scouts. They are typical high lottery picks in a normal draft. In 2012, Bradley Beal, Harrison Barnes, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist all got the nod as Tier 2 players. In 2011, Kyrie Irving and Derrick Williams were in this tier. This year, six players are here, which is a high number (as is the case with having three players in Tier 1). Two of these players -- Exum and Vonleh -- even got a couple of votes for Tier 1.
This is where the strength of the draft really shines, in my opinion. This means that NBA GMs, scouts and execs believe that there could be as many as nine potential All-Stars in the draft class, with three of them being franchise players. You have to go back more than a decade -- to the 2003 draft, where eight players ended up making an All-Star team -- to get a draft that loaded. While none of the players on the list are LeBron James-type players, there is incredible value here.
Tier 3
Gary Harris
Doug McDermott
Nik Stauskas
In 2013, we put the top six players in the draft in Tier 3: Nerlens Noel, Anthony Bennett, Ben McLemore, Alex Len, Victor Oladipo and Otto Porter. That means that all nine guys listed in Tier 1 or Tier 2 would have been drafted ahead of the top six players in 2013.
This tier is usually reserved for players who are projected as NBA starters in their careers. This year, this tier is a little on the small side. While there were a number of votes for various players for this tier, these were the only three who had a consensus. None of the Tier 3 players were voted on for Tier 2 status, and none of them were voted for Tier 4; that makes things pretty clean. All three should be gone before the lottery is through, with McDermott, especially, looking like a lock for the Top 10.
Tier 4
Tyler Ennis
Rodney Hood
Zach LaVine
Jusuf Nurkic
Elfrid Payton
Adreian Payne
Kristaps Porzingis
James Young
Tier 4 typically includes late lottery picks to mid-first-round selections in a normal draft, or selections 10 through 20. These players project as either starters or top-tier rotation players.
Payton and Young got a small number of votes for Tier 3. Nurkic got a Tier 3 vote, as well. But the majority of teams had them ranked in Tier 4. Ennis and Payne were ranked as Tier 4 by every team I spoke with. LaVine, Hood, Nurkic and Porzingis had some Tier 5 votes, but the majority of their votes were in Tier 4.
Tier 5
Jordan Adams
Kyle Anderson
Clint Capela
Jordan Clarkson
Spencer Dinwiddie
Cleanthony Early
Jerami Grant
P.J. Hairston
Joe Harris
Artem Klimenko
K.J. McDaniels
Mitch McGary
Vasilije Micic
Shabazz Napier
Glenn Robinson III
Walter Tavares
Jarnell Stokes
T.J. Warren
C.J. Wilcox
Patric Young
This next group is a very large Tier 5, and it shows off the depth of the draft this year; the difference between the 20th pick in the draft and the 40th pick isn't particularly large.
There are a whopping 20 players in this group. At least 10 of these players won't hear their names called in the first round. This area of the draft is typically reserved for rotation players. These are players who are unlikely to start for good teams but could play a significant role coming off the bench for a team. A few teams had Anderson, Capela, Early, Hairston, Napier and Warren in Tier 4, but not quite enough for them to make the cut.
Tier 6
Thanasis Antetokounmpo
Bogdan Bogdanovic
Deonte Burton
Jahii Carson
Semaj Christon
DeAndre Daniels
C.J. Fair
Alessandro Gentile
Nick Johnson
Nikola Jokic
Rasmus Larsen
James Michael McAdoo
Jordan McRae
Johnny O'Bryant
Russ Smith
This tier has players who were listed as top-60 prospects by the majority of the teams I spoke with. Of the group, only Christon, Jokic and O'Bryant got some Tier 5 votes.
Like every draft system, the tier system isn't perfect. But the teams that run it have found success with it. It has allowed them to get help through the draft without overreaching. Compared to traditional top-30 lists or mock drafts, it seems like a much more precise tool of gauging which players a team should draft.
954UAlreadyknow
All Star
Should Embiid go No. 1 overall?
Chad Ford and Jay Bilas return to evaluate the top prospects of the 2014 NBA draft. Today, they break down the top point guards to see who could have the brightest NBA future and who could be a great late value pick.
1. Should the Cavaliers select Joel Embiid with the No. 1 pick?
Chad Ford: If their doctors are confident that he won't have ongoing issues with his back? Yes. I think Embiid has the potential to be the best player at his position in three to five years. The Cavs have Anderson Varejao in the middle, but he's 32 and in the final year of his contract. If you want to build a title contender for the future, then having an All-Star-caliber point guard and an All-Star-caliber center is the way to go.
But the Cavs need to be patient. Embiid isn't ready to dominate yet. I'm not sure how much he really helps them in Year 1. If their owner is not willing to give Embiid the playing time he needs to develop, then they should take Andrew Wiggins, who has similar upside but can make an automatic impact.
Jay Bilas: Ten or 20 years ago, you would pick a center as the No. 1 overall selection. Now the game has changed so much over the years, it is less about a dominant player in the pivot than in the past. Still, I would not turn down Embiid's enormous potential, which conjures up a young Hakeem Olajuwon.
Every time you see Embiid, he adds something new and has more to his game. His footwork, skill level, touch and athleticism have your jaw on the floor. As long as his back is not an issue -- and it doesn't seem to be -- Embiid would be the guy. Wiggins has great potential too, and Jabari Parker is the "safe pick" in the short run, but I would go with Embiid.
2. Who is the best player in five years: Noah Vonleh, Julius Randle or Aaron Gordon?
Bilas: I believe it will be Vonleh. Athletic, skilled, freakishly long (in a good way) and hands the size of Kawhi Leonard -- Vonleh has it all. He can step away and shoot it, and he is a high-volume rebounder. As he adds to his post game, Vonleh has the chance to be a complete player in the NBA.
Gordon is a better pure athlete who can guard anyone, rebound and get out in the open court, and Randle is an excellent rebounder and the most physically imposing big man in the NBA draft. But Vonleh has the chance to be a special player, so I'll go with him.
Ford: All three of these players have incredible talent, and I think they will all have successful NBA careers. But each is so different. My bet is with Vonleh here if I get a five-year window. Randle will be ready now. Gordon may have the most highlight-reel plays. But Vonleh, I believe, will be the best player down the road.
He has freakish physical characteristics that will allow him to dominate his position -- incredibly huge hands and a fantastic wingspan and standing reach. He also has a skill, shooting, that few big men possess. Vonleh is the best shot blocker and tied for best rebounder of the group. And he's the youngest of the three.
3. Dario Saric, Adreian Payne, Kristaps Porzingis or Kyle Anderson -- who has the best NBA career?
Ford: I've been a pretty big believer in Saric. He has a tremendous basketball IQ, is very skilled and plays with a passion and aggressiveness that matches Marcus Smart's. It's hard to ignore what he's done on the court, playing against men, at his age. However, there are enough things I don't like about his game (jump shot needs to improve, not great lateral quickness or explosion, short arms, can be temperamental) that I wonder whether he can be as dominant in the NBA as he is in the Adriatic league.
Porzingis isn't as polished as Saric, but he's bigger, is a much better athlete, already has an NBA skill as a jump shooter and once he adds some strength, I think he has the potential to surpass Saric. If we are given a five-year window for guys, I believe Porzingis could be better. I think Payne will have a long career as a stretch 4 and Anderson, if he lands on a team like the Spurs that knows how to use his gift, will also do well. But Porzingis would be my choice.
Bilas: I would say that Saric and Porzingis top that list. Saric can do the most things and is the most complete player of the group. He's versatile, can really shoot it and competes at a high level. Anderson is a terrific passer and knows how to play, but he does not shoot the ball as well as Saric, does not have as good a build and is not as good an athlete.
Payne is long, super athletic and can stretch a defense with his shooting, but he is not quite as skilled as Saric. I have not seen as much of Porzingis, but he is so long, tall and ultra-skilled. He is like Saric in a way, but he is actually bigger and longer. He just needs to mature and get stronger. Saric is the best of the group.
4. Which player is the most underrated: Mitch McGary, Patric Young, James Michael McAdoo or Isaiah Austin?
Bilas: I see McGary, if healthy, as the most underrated and having the best career of the four. McGary was out all last season for Michigan, but he has a motor that just won't stop revving. He's young, physical and can run the floor. McGary is a good passing big, and when he does the simple things, he can be pretty effective. When he screens you, you stay screened, and he can roll, catch and finish.
Young is the best post defender and most physical rebounder, but he is not a go-to presence in the post in the NBA, and he doesn't step away to stretch a defense. I thought James Michael would be the best of the bunch in high school, but his offensive game never really blossomed. I like Austin, however he's thin, not a great finisher and not the most physical presence. He needs to operate in a crowd better, but he is a good prospect.
Ford: I'm tempted to agree with Jay and say McGary. As a basketball player with a high motor, athleticism and toughness, he could have a long career in the NBA if he can stay healthy. I think taking a flier on him in the late first round is worth the risk. If he stays healthy, he'll outplay his draft position. But back issues always worry me, especially in big men, and I'm pretty worried about McGary.
I'm going with Young. I think Young will have a long future in the NBA as a rotation big. He's not skilled offensively, but I think he can be a defensive force off the bench and even a starter in some systems. He'll have a long future in the NBA. I'm not a big McAdoo fan. And Austin, I hear, was the only player at the NBA draft combine to be red-flagged with several medical issues. I think there's a good chance he won't be drafted.
arthurli22
Rookie
Nike Elite One Hundred recap
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