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Gordon's versatility on full display
Is the Arizona star a 3 or 4 in the NBA? Plus, a look at Smart, LaVine and more
SANTA MONICA, Calif. -- Southern California was just jammed full of NBA prospects last week. On Friday we talked about Gary Harris, James Young and company. On Tuesday we detailed the workouts of Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid and Jabari Parker.
But that's not all. On Friday, I saw several other intriguing prospects for the 2014 NBA draft in workouts in Santa Monica. All of these workouts were also in front of a plethora of NBA scouts and general managers.
Here's a look at how each of the top prospects fared.
Aaron Gordon, Arizona Wildcats
Gordon is riding a high from an excellent NBA draft combine, where he tested among the top athletes at the event. However, that didn't really surprise anyone who has followed Gordon's career. We all know that he can jump out of the gym.
Friday's test was more crucial. Gordon has been labeled as a tweener by many NBA scouts -- a tad too small to be an effective power forward but too limited offensively to be an NBA small forward. That's why Gordon, who's 6-foot-9, 225 pounds, has spent the season trying to prove he can make the transition offensively to the small forward position. His freshman season at Arizona was a mixed bag on that front. While he shot a surprising 36 percent from 3-point range (albeit with a very small sample size) his 2-point jump shooting was an abysmal 27.5 percent, and he shot a horrific 42 percent from the free throw line.
Gordon went out of his way on Friday to show that he's a better shooter than scouts give him credit for. He went through a series of drills that had him shooting midrange and 3-point jumpers, and he shot them at a much higher clip than you would expect for someone who has a reputation as a poor shooter. Athletically he was terrific as always, but it was the shooting that caught everyone's eye. Whether any of that would translate into a game setting is a legitimate question, but the scouts and GMs I spoke with after the workout did walk away impressed at the work he has put in.
They all also love his attitude and confidence. Gordon was a hit in the interviews in Chicago as well, with one team telling me that they were impressed when he answered the question, "What's your biggest strength?" with "My belief in myself. I believe I can do anything." That showed up in the workout when the trainer actually instructed Gordon to do a midrange shooting drill and Gordon waved him off and stepped back beyond the NBA 3-point line and started drilling 3s. It was a risky move, but one that illustrated his confidence. It also helped that they went in at a high clip.
Gordon remains in that scrum with Julius Randle and Noah Vonleh for a pick between No. 5 and No. 8. I think the Celtics remain the best bet of the group to take him at No. 6, if they keep their pick.
Marcus Smart, Oklahoma State Cowboys
Smart was his characteristic self in Santa Monica. He was energetic, vocal and like Jabari Parker, went hard for the entire workout. Like Gordon, many of the question marks surrounding Smart have to do with his jump shot. He shot 30 percent from 3-point range this past season, barely up from his 29 percent as a freshman. His 2-point field goal percentage on jumpers, at 31 percent, wasn't much better.
In a 30-minute workout, Smart did his best to prove that his shot isn't broken. Like Gordon, Smart's shot was falling from just about everywhere on the floor Friday.
At least one veteran GM wasn't surprised. "I don't think Marcus is a bad shooter. I think his form looks pretty good and you see it will go in when he's squared and taking good shots. I think the issue is that Marcus took a lot of bad shots. He was trying to do too much at Oklahoma State. If he can trust his teammates in the NBA and be a leader, I think he'll be just fine as a shooter. Shot selection is the key for him."
Smart also looked in great shape and was finishing well above the rim in drills. Factor in all of the intangibles about his basketball IQ (which are impossible to show in these settings) and I think he helped cement his place in the draft somewhere between No. 4 and No. 8. The Magic, Celtics, Lakers and Kings are all very strong possibilities for him. He just finished his first workout on Tuesday in Orlando, and has workouts scheduled with the Lakers on June 4 and Celtics per ESPN.com's Jeff Goodman.
Zach LaVine, UCLA Bruins
LaVine might have helped himself more than anyone at the draft combine in Chicago. Not only did he test as the best athlete in the draft, he shot the ball well, measured great and showed well in drills.
The one-on-none workout he went through on Friday didn't really move the needle in either direction. Most impressively, he finished the workout with several amazing dunks that had him eye-level with the rim. The people at P3, where he is training, claim he's one of the most insane athletes they've ever tested.
LaVine shot the ball well in the workout, though there was some inconsistency that mirrored his performance at UCLA. The question is really whether he's a point guard. There was nothing done in the drills to answer that question, but it didn't stop scouts from chiming in.
"I don't understand why everyone's trying to make him a 1," one NBA scout said. "He's got the size and skill set of an NBA 2-guard. Just let him be. I think that's what he is. Why are we trying to convert him into a point [guard]? He doesn't need to be to be an attractive pick."
But another scout said LaVine has the handle and attitude to be a good NBA point guard. "He's never going to be a pass-first guy, but if you watched him in high school you know he had a lot more to his game than he got to show at UCLA. He's quick with the ball, sees the floor well. If you remember a young Jamal Crawford playing point guard for the Bulls -- I think he could be that type of player. Even better because he's a better athlete than Jamal."
LaVine started workouts in Chicago last week with the Bulls. He remains a likely late lottery to mid-first-round pick.
Jerami Grant, Syracuse Orange
Grant also showed well athletically at the NBA draft combine. He has the requisite length and athletic ability -- but like Gordon, he's a tweener. His measurements suggest he could get away with playing some 4 in the NBA, but his rebounding numbers give some pause.
As for Grant's jump shot, it's still a big work in progress. His range from NBA 3-point range is limited and his midrange game is inconsistent right now. Whoever takes him will be taking him because of his athletic upside, pedigree and defensive potential. His offense still has a ways to go. But I still see him as a mid-to-late first-round pick.
Kyle Anderson, UCLA Bruins
Anderson was held out of the draft combine because of an ankle injury, so this was the first time NBA teams got to see him in a workout setting. This wasn't an ideal environment for Anderson. His nickname is "Slo-mo," and that style of play translated to the workouts as well. Compared to Parker, who was trying to kill everything in the workout, Anderson was just taking his time.
His lack of athletic ability and emerging jumper just meant he wasn't going to pop in this setting. To get a good appreciation of him, he needs the ball in his hands and needs to be running a team.
The NBA GMs I spoke with here remain divided. They all agree that on the right team, in the right system, he could have success. But it's a gamble right now.
"Will an NBA head coach give him minutes given his defensive liabilities?" one GM said. "That's my first concern. And if he gets minutes, will an NBA coach put the ball in his hands, because that's when he's special. If he's just a power forward, there are much better prospects. I just don't know. I know he has as good of a feel for the game as anyone in this draft. Everything comes easy to him."
Look for Anderson's stock to continue to be all over the place. He could go anywhere from No. 14 to No. 30.
Dante Exum: Potential and mystery
Insider's experts discuss the young point guard, project where he could land
Chad Ford: We got to see Andrew Wiggins, Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid go through intensive workouts this past weekend, giving us yet another dimension to scout them on. Meanwhile, Dante Exum is lying low in Los Angeles.
Wiggins, Parker and Embiid have been scouted as closely as any freshmen could be. Exum, on the other hand? You have three practices at the Nike Hoop Summit, the actual Hoop Summit game (where he played out of position) and the FIBA Under-19 World Championships in Prague, where he dominated a few games but did so outside of the gaze of NBA GMs.
So how do we get a handle on whether Exum matches up to Wiggins, Parker and Embiid?
Kevin Pelton: There's no conversion for Australian high school stats, so I focused the U-19 world championships. Ten of the 12 American players who won gold in the U-19 games played NCAA basketball last season (incoming freshmen Jahlil Okafor and Justise Winslow being the exceptions), and six players from Canada played in the NCAA.
I was able to compare their performance in the U-19 championships with their translated NCAA stats (using those instead of raw NCAA stats to account for strength of schedule) and come up with U-19 translations. In general, the level of competition appears to be slightly worse than major-conference NCAA basketball.
From then on, I treated Exum's translated stats like any other college prospect. Because the tournament was so short (nine games, or about one-quarter of a typical NCAA season), they get regressed heavily to the mean. Still, Exum projects as an above-replacement player in the NBA next season. In conjunction with his age, that would give Exum the second-best WARP projection in the draft after Oklahoma State's Marcus Smart -- and make Kyrie Irving the only player in my college database with a similarity score of greater than 90 at the same age.
Ford: I'm impressed. It's tough to get objective takes on Exum. And the second-best WARP projection next to Smart -- that's a "wow." Here's the thing: I think many GMs secretly know that. I've talked with a number of the decision-makers at the top of the draft, and when they get to Exum, you can tell they love him. They think he's on par with those other guys. But the battle is against the unknown. It's the challenge of telling your owner, "We're going to take this young kid who's been playing Australian high school basketball over Jabari Parker." Not easy.
But when you look at Exum's ability to create his own shot, his size and speed for his position, and what type of person he is (confident, intelligent, hard-working), it makes sense. There isn't another player quite like him in the draft.
So help them, Kevin. Explain why he's ranked so highly in your WARP projection.
What is he doing that makes him stand out?
Pelton: Conveniently, the top two other point guards in this year's draft, Smart and Tyler Ennis, also played in the U-19 championships. So let's compare their stats:
U-19 POINT GUARD COMPARISON
PlayerCountry2P%3P%FTA%TS%UsgReb%Ast%Stl%TO%
Tyler EnnisCanada.496.222.109.518.309.065.038.016.117
Dante Exum Australia.529.333.165.550.300.060.060.025.123
Marcus SmartUSA.605.286.125.573.257.091.058.072
.148
Smart's athleticism is apparent. He rebounded best from the guard spot and was a terror in the passing lanes as part of Team USA's pressure defense while shooting a high percentage around the rim. When translated, Smart rated as the best player in Prague. Ennis, by contrast, struggled with his outside shot and generated few assists in a shoot-first role.
Exum more than held his own. In particular, his ability to get to the free throw line stood out. He averaged more than seven free throw attempts per game. That ability to create off the dribble figures to translate very well to the NBA. Additionally, Exum took good care of the ball given his role as playmaker. His 1.62 assist-to-turnover ratio was better than those of Smart (1.54), Ennis (1.02) and the other point guard at the U-19 games who might get drafted this year, Serbian Vasilije Micic (1.19).
But the biggest factor in Exum's favor is his age. Although these games were for players 19 and under, Exum wasn't yet 18 years old during the competition. He's 16 months younger than Smart and 13 months younger than Ennis, giving him plenty of room to develop.
Ford: All of that aligns well with the scouting report on Exum. He gets to the line at an elite rate. His athletic testing numbers at the NBA draft combine upheld that notion that Exum and Zach LaVine were the quickest guards in this draft. At his size and length, that's a significant factor in his favor
The assist-to-turnover ratio is also impressive. Because he played out of position at the Nike Hoop Summit (Dennis Schroeder, who was drafted 17th overall by the Atlanta Hawks, played point guard in front of him), there has been some question about his ability to play the point only because GMs didn't get to see it in Portland. This should help a bit to ease that concern.
Exum's one real weakness, shooting, also shows here. But the general feeling among the scouts who have watched him the most is that his shot isn't broken and there's nothing preventing him from improving as time goes on.
Everything you are saying and I've been seeing seems to point to Exum being a legit contender for the No. 1 pick. Anything we should be concerned about?
Pelton: I think Exum's free throw shooting is an issue. He shot 60.9 percent last summer and 66.7 percent at the U-17 championships in 2012, and that's definitely on the low side for a player who will spend so much time at the line.
Beyond that, the biggest concern is simply the limited data. Although there was a correlation between U-19 performance and NCAA play, several players looked different in the college setting over a longer season. Ennis, for example, was far better at Syracuse, and U-19 championships MVP Aaron Gordon wasn't quite that dominant at Arizona. It's also possible that translating how American players performed under unfamiliar FIBA rules gives Exum a boost because he's played the international game his entire life. The other 2014 lottery prospect in Prague, Dario Saric, performed equally as well as Exum -- better than his translated ratings from EuroCup action.
Nonetheless, I'm tempted to put Exum second on my personal draft board behind Joel Embiid.
What are the chances one of Cleveland, Milwaukee or Philadelphia falls in love with him and picks him ahead of the presumed top three picks?
Ford: He's not in the mix for the Cleveland Cavaliers. With Irving firmly embedded at the point and more pressing needs at center and the wing, I think we can safely scratch him from going No. 1.
The Milwaukee Bucks are big fans of Exum. ALthough they like Brandon Knight, they think he's better suited to play the 2-guard and think the combo of Exum and Knight together could be potent. The big question is whether he's a better option than Embiid or Parker. Parker would give them a go-to scorer, while the team thinks strongly that Embiid would be a great fit next to Larry Sanders on the front line. If Milwaukee management had more job security, I think Exum would be its guy. But he might be too big a risk given that new ownership just took control of the team.
The Philadelphia 76ers are Exum fans as well, and if Wiggins is off the board, Exum will be in the mix. They think Exum and Carter-Williams could play together in the backcourt, although it would not be a very good shooting tandem. I think the more obvious fit comes if they trade Carter-Williams, an idea I'm told they have bounced around.
But I think his best bet is with the Orlando Magic. They need a point guard, and an Exum-Victor Oladipo backcourt could be great. Again, there are shooting concerns, but I think at No. 4, the Magic would roll the dice on him.
Debate over No. 1 pick continues
The debate over the No. 1 pick in the 2014 NBA draft got even more complicated last weekend.
In something of a surprise move, all three of the top candidates for the No. 1 pick worked out in Southern California. Kansas' Joel Embiid and Duke's Jabari Parker worked out in Santa Monica in front of more than 100 NBA scouts and executives on Friday. On Sunday, Kansas' Andrew Wiggins worked out privately for me in Santa Barbara with trainer Drew Hanlen.
All three workouts were impressive, muddying the waters even further over whom the Cleveland Cavaliers should select with the first pick in the draft.
Workouts themselves are only a sliver of a much larger draft process. A player's performance on the court in real games obviously carries more weight. However, the workouts do matter. Teams look at what shape the players are in, how hard they go and whether they have worked on any of their deficiencies since the season ended.
They especially become important when teams are struggling to decide between players. They have, in the past, been the tiebreakers in close calls. In a draft that has three, maybe four, players worthy of the top pick, they are going to matter.
Here's what I learned in the workouts this weekend for all three players.
Consistency is key for Wiggins
Wiggins did not disappoint in the private workout I saw of him on Sunday. He's in the best shape of the three prospects right now and showed off terrific athleticism, and improved shooting and ballhandling mechanics in the 45-minute workout with Hanlen. (He's been working with Hanlen for just under a month, as well as with the folks at P3 in Santa Barbara.)
Hanlen has been working with Wiggins on correcting several weaknesses that have been holding back his game. They have tweaked Wiggins' jump shot, primarily by working with him on his follow-through, to get a more consistent jumper from both midrange and from behind the 3-point line. While Wiggins was a solid shooter this season for Kansas (34 percent from 3), everyone knows he needs to get better to open up the floor. That process already began in the second half of the season. Once Kansas began Big 12 play, Wiggins' 3-point shooting improved. While there's still more work to do, Wiggins showed off a more consistent jumper from everywhere on the floor in the workout I saw. He was particularly good from each corner, shooting 14-for-16 on 3s he took there.
Wiggins has also been working on his ballhandling. While Wiggins has a solid handle, he plays very upright which gives him an unusually high dribble that's easy to pick off. Hanlen and the folks at P3 have been working on his hip flexibility to get him playing lower to the ground. At his size (he measured 6-foot-8.75 in shoes, with a 7-foot wingspan and an 8-foot-11 standing reach at P3), he's going to have to get lower to the floor to be able to attack the basket the way he did for KU during the second half of the season. The training seems to be taking, as Wiggins was playing much less upright in the workouts here, improving his quickness and explosiveness on both ends of the court.
Finally, Hanlen has been doing a lot of game film breakdown with Wiggins, trying to add some NBA moves to his already elite athletic talent. Hanlen has been showing Wiggins video of Michael Jordan, Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady and Paul George and then taking several signature moves of each player and working with Wiggins on building those into his game. Wiggins looked especially lethal on a new step-back move he's been working on. He's so quick and so long, he gets incredible separation from his defender on the move. It will be close to impossible to guard if he can get it down.
"I normally never pull Jordan or Kobe video for players because, truthfully, they just can't do what Jordan or Kobe could do athletically," Hanlen said. "Wiggins is the first player I've trained who has that capability, athletically, to do some of the things those two have done. It's just a learning process for him now. He's gotten by on his athleticism his whole life. Now it's about really learning what makes players like that special from a skills standpoint and a mentality standpoint. He was hesitant at Kansas and as he improves his skills, I'm starting to see him develop confidence and a killer mentality that will be necessary at the next level. He's been like a sponge. The improvement over the past few weeks has been incredible. I think in a few more weeks he's going to blow people away in workouts."
Will Wiggins impress the Cavaliers enough for a No. 1 selection?
On the night of the draft lottery, a Cavs source told me that while Parker had been at the top of their board all year and that they are in love with Embiid's potential and long-term fit, he felt that at the end of the day Wiggins would be the Cavs' guy. Wiggins offers the Cavs both the upside of Embiid plus some of the NBA readiness of Parker. While Parker might be better offensively right now, Wiggins' defensive abilities are NBA-ready, and if the Cavs are going to make the jump to the playoffs next season, the improvement will primarily have to come on the defensive end.
"I think he has the most star potential of anyone in the draft," one veteran NBA scout told me on Friday, "and I think he goes and helps a team right away. He'll get on the floor for significant minutes right away because he can defend multiple positions. And when his offense catches up to his defense, I just don't see any way that this kid can fail. How do you pass on that if you are Cleveland? It's really the best of both worlds."
But not everyone agrees, and this is where things get confusing. There's a lot of misinformation floating around right now. Since putting up my mock draft, I've heard conflicting reports from sources outside the Cavs about Wiggins. One good source told me that the Cavs have already told Wiggins' camp he's the front-runner. However, another trusted source with close access to the Cavs' front office told me that he believes that Wiggins isn't even in the discussion in Cleveland -- that it's already been narrowed down to Embiid or Parker.
And if Wiggins doesn't go No. 1? I don't think he's in the top two on the Milwaukee Bucks' board right now, which means he would fall to the Philadelphia 76ers -- a team that has had Wiggins as its top target all season.
Embiid may have the ultimate say
No one was a bigger attraction than Embiid this weekend. Teams haven't seen him play since he injured his back late in his freshman season. Embiid's decision to skip the combine caused a fair amount of consternation among NBA teams. Without seeing him in the athletic testing, and without a full physical from NBA doctors, the paranoia over Embiid's health reached a fever pitch in Chicago last weekend.
Embiid went a long way toward easing those doubts and reasserting himself as a legit contender, maybe even the favorite, to be the top pick in the draft.
Embiid went through a roughly 30-minute workout alongside former NBA center Will Perdue. While it was clear that Embiid was still working himself into shape after nearly eight weeks of rest for his back (he got very winded about 15 minutes into the workout and started to struggle to finish his dunks and shots), he still looked quick and made the 10-foot basket look like a Nerf hoop.
He was dunking everything, showing off his quickness in the paint and his impressive shooting touch with a series of midrange shots and step-backs. While NBA teams won't draft him to shoot jumpers, there's very little question that he has NBA shooting range.
Embiid's measurements, taken by his agency, the Wasserman Group, helped, as well. Embiid measured 7-foot-1 in shoes, with a 7-foot-5.75 wingspan and a crazy 9-foot-5.5 standing reach. That makes him the biggest player in the draft, and furthers the appeal for teams looking for a legit center.
Embiid told me that he gained roughly 20 pounds the past two months, though he had lost five in the past three weeks since he began working out again. In his case, that's a good thing. Teams were worried that Embiid, at 250, was a little too light to play the post. The extra 15 pounds seems to have mostly gone to his butt and thighs, exactly were teams want it to go to help him create space and hold his position in the post.
Embiid also told me that his back was "100 percent" and that he was feeling no effects from his injury in March. That was confirmed by several sources who have been working with him in the gym the past few weeks.
"If anything, I think they were overcautious with him," one source said. "He could've played in the next round of the NCAA tournament had Kansas advanced. They were just making sure that the issue would completely go away. He's fine."
If that's true, then I think it will be very hard for the Cavs to pass on him. Players like Embiid don't come along very often and if he continues to impress, he has the chance to be the best center in the NBA someday. For a team that has a need at the 5 (Anderson Varejao is 32 and in the last year of his contract), he gives them both low-post offense and the rim protection that the Cavs have desperately lacked in the past.
However, there are still two major question marks that need to be answered.
First, will Embiid's agent, Arn Tellem, send him to Cleveland for a workout and allow the Cavs' doctors to give his back a full examination? The Cavs aren't going to just take Embiid's word on this. Their doctors will have to be comfortable with him. As of this weekend, Tellem was still in discussions with the Cavs on sending Embiid to Cleveland. Both sides expect to work out something that allows the Cavs to get to see Embiid.
Second, if Embiid is allowed to visit Cleveland and if the Cavs' doctors give him a clean bill of health, will new GM David Griffin and owner Dan Gilbert take him No. 1? A number of sources close to the Cavs confirm that they really like Embiid and in a vacuum, would likely take him No. 1. But the Cavs aren't in a vacuum.
Gilbert has been adamant that he's tired of missing the playoffs and expects the team to make a playoff run this season. While Embiid may have the highest upside of any player in the draft, he also is the least NBA-ready of the three top prospects. Can Griffin afford to take, and will Gilbert sign off on taking, a player who is unlikely to make a major impact next season? Especially when the other two players on the board also have elite talent, and could make a more immediate impact?
Parker comes away with the most impressive workout
Parker reminded us all on Friday that he also is still in this mix to be the top pick. In fact, I thought Parker's workout was the most impressive of the three that I saw. Here's why: Parker is the most skilled of the top three players in the draft and he attacked that workout like it was a national championship game. Not only did he go harder than Wiggins or Embiid, he went harder than anyone else I've seen in a workout this year. It reminded me, a little, of the great workout Damian Lillard did in Oakland a few years ago. Aggressiveness and competitiveness show in things like this, and Parker passed those tests with flying colors.
And Parker did it without being in elite shape. About 20 or so minutes into the workout he got very winded and even, for a brief second, leaned on a garbage can close to where I was sitting. But he fought through the moment of fatigue and finished the workout strong with a series of impressive dunks alongside Jerami Grant.
A source in Parker's camp revealed to me on Friday that Parker had only been working out there in Santa Monica a few weeks. "He's in good shape now," the source said. "The reports that he was 20 pounds overweight weren't true. But I'm not going to say he was in great shape, either. Guys take some time off after the season to let their bodies rest. I think he's already back to as good of shape as he was at Duke, if not better. It's not a big deal. But I'm not worried about what shape he's in in May. It's how he looks when he goes into workouts in mid-June. Parker's been working his butt off here. He's going to be in great shape when he needs to be."
Parker's skilled game shined at the workout. His jump shot was falling from everywhere on the court, he showed great quickness with the ball and he had that step-back working as well as I've ever seen it. He's incredibly skilled for a player his age and size -- all of that will translate to the NBA right away.
We didn't get to see Parker play any defense -- the area that teams are most concerned about. However, his measurements also gave some teams hope that perhaps he could defend NBA 4s. He measured 6-foot-9 in shoes with a 6-foot-11.5 wingspan and an 8-foot-11.5 standing reach. Those numbers are on par with Julius Randle and Aaron Gordon -- both projected as NBA power forwards. While teams worry that Parker may not have the lateral quickness to guard NBA 3s, perhaps he's strong enough and big enough to guard 4s. Several GMs I spoke with over the weekend think it's a possibility.
"I think offensively he's an NBA 3 all the way," one GM said. "But we really rate position by who you can guard defensively and I think Jabari might have both the strength and size to guard most 4s in the league. If he can, I think it helps his stock tremendously."
Nevertheless, Parker's perceived lack of upside, along with his questionable defensive abilities, has raised questions in Cleveland and Milwaukee. It's conceivable that he could slide to the Sixers or Orlando Magic on draft night.
But there's also the chance he could wind up as the No. 1 overall pick. The Cavs, under GM Chris Grant, have had him at the top of their Big Board all season. Parker is the most NBA-ready of the group, and with the likelihood of Luol Deng leaving via free agency, he fills a need for Cleveland. If the Cavs are looking for an impact player with high character and competitiveness, Parker seems like the perfect fit.
In the end, the Cavs are going to have a very tough decision to make. All three players are worthy of the No. 1 pick in the draft. All three have distinct strengths and weaknesses.
And as for the Bucks and Sixers -- it seems there will be no losers on draft night. This is shaping up to be a terrific draft.
Parker reminded us all on Friday that he also is still in this mix to be the top pick. In fact, I thought Parker's workout was the most impressive of the three that I saw. Here's why: Parker is the most skilled of the top three players in the draft and he attacked that workout like it was a national championship game. Not only did he go harder than Wiggins or Embiid, he went harder than anyone else I've seen in a workout this year. It reminded me, a little, of the great workout Damian Lillard did in Oakland a few years ago. Aggressiveness and competitiveness show in things like this, and Parker passed those tests with flying colors.
And Parker did it without being in elite shape. About 20 or so minutes into the workout he got very winded and even, for a brief second, leaned on a garbage can close to where I was sitting. But he fought through the moment of fatigue and finished the workout strong with a series of impressive dunks alongside Jerami Grant.
A source in Parker's camp revealed to me on Friday that Parker had only been working out there in Santa Monica a few weeks. "He's in good shape now," the source said. "The reports that he was 20 pounds overweight weren't true. But I'm not going to say he was in great shape, either. Guys take some time off after the season to let their bodies rest. I think he's already back to as good of shape as he was at Duke, if not better. It's not a big deal. But I'm not worried about what shape he's in in May. It's how he looks when he goes into workouts in mid-June. Parker's been working his butt off here. He's going to be in great shape when he needs to be."
Parker's skilled game shined at the workout. His jump shot was falling from everywhere on the court, he showed great quickness with the ball and he had that step-back working as well as I've ever seen it. He's incredibly skilled for a player his age and size -- all of that will translate to the NBA right away.
We didn't get to see Parker play any defense -- the area that teams are most concerned about. However, his measurements also gave some teams hope that perhaps he could defend NBA 4s. He measured 6-foot-9 in shoes with a 6-foot-11.5 wingspan and an 8-foot-11.5 standing reach. Those numbers are on par with Julius Randle and Aaron Gordon -- both projected as NBA power forwards. While teams worry that Parker may not have the lateral quickness to guard NBA 3s, perhaps he's strong enough and big enough to guard 4s. Several GMs I spoke with over the weekend think it's a possibility.
"I think offensively he's an NBA 3 all the way," one GM said. "But we really rate position by who you can guard defensively and I think Jabari might have both the strength and size to guard most 4s in the league. If he can, I think it helps his stock tremendously."
Nevertheless, Parker's perceived lack of upside, along with his questionable defensive abilities, has raised questions in Cleveland and Milwaukee. It's conceivable that he could slide to the Sixers or Orlando Magic on draft night.
But there's also the chance he could wind up as the No. 1 overall pick. The Cavs, under GM Chris Grant, have had him at the top of their Big Board all season. Parker is the most NBA-ready of the group, and with the likelihood of Luol Deng leaving via free agency, he fills a need for Cleveland. If the Cavs are looking for an impact player with high character and competitiveness, Parker seems like the perfect fit.
In the end, the Cavs are going to have a very tough decision to make. All three players are worthy of the No. 1 pick in the draft. All three have distinct strengths and weaknesses.
And as for the Bucks and Sixers -- it seems there will be no losers on draft night. This is shaping up to be a terrific draft.
FreedS[ohh]lave
Banned
Debating top draft point guards
Which point guards have bright futures in the NBA and provide best value?
Chad Ford and Jay Bilas return to evaluate the top prospects of the 2014 NBA draft. Today, they break down the top point guards to see who could have the brightest NBA future and who could be a great late value pick.
1. In five years, who's the better PG prospect, Dante Exum or Marcus Smart?
Chad Ford: I love both players and think both are worthy of Top-5 picks in this draft. Other than the fact that they both have elite size for their position, they are pretty different players. Smart is about strength, leadership, basketball IQ and defensive toughness. Exum is about speed, length and a unique ability to get to the basket at will. While neither are pass-first point guards, both see the floor well enough and create opportunities for others.
I lean, and I emphasize lean, toward Exum. I think his edge on quickness and size makes the difference. I also think that he's probably a better shooter, right now, than Smart was at his age. I think both players have the chance to be all-stars someday, but if I had to choose, Exum would be my guy.
Jay Bilas: I love Marcus Smart, but I think Exum has more potential to be a great player. Neither is a natural point guard, but Exum is taller, longer and has a much better shooting stroke. Smart is the better defender, on and off the ball, and is much stronger, but Exum will mature. I believe Exum can be a consistent, good shooter and Smart has not made much progress over the past year in his shooting.
2. Who has the brightest long-term future in the NBA? Tyler Ennis, Elfrid Payton or Shabazz Napier?
Chad Ford: I've been a fan of Ennis since watching him at the Maui Invitational. He's got unreal poise for a point guard his age. There's nothing flashy about his game, but he's as steady as they come. And I was wowed by Napier in the NCAA tournament. His leadership and clutch shooting were epic. But I think Payton will be the best player of the three in a few years. He's bigger, longer, faster, a better defender and better at getting to the rim. Napier is a better shooter and Ennis probably has the best floor sense, but Payton has the ability to be a terror on both ends of the floor.
He really reminds me of a young Gary Payton, and had he been playing at Syracuse or UConn for the last three years, I think we wouldn't hesitate to put him at No. 3 behind Exum and Smart. I'm not sure he'll get drafted in the lottery, but he deserves to be, and if he gets into workouts with Ennis and Napier I think he might just convince a NBA GM to take him there.
Jay Bilas: Tough question, because I like all three of them. Napier is the best player of the group right now, and the one you would put on the floor to play on opening night in order to win. There's just something tougher about him, and he will not fail in the NBA. But I like Ennis the best, long term. Ennis has a calm about him, and he is just as quick, athletic and explosive as he needs to be in a given situation. Ennis can get by people, he is a terrific passer, but while he shoots it well, he needs to stretch out his range. Payton reminds me a bit of Rajon Rondo, an excellent defender who doesn't really shoot it well. If Payton can tighten up that jump shot, improve consistency and fluidity, he can be a really good player in the NBA. Overall though, I go with Ennis.
3. Who has the best chance of making the transition from the 2 to the 1 in the NBA: Gary Harris, Nik Stauskas or Zach LaVine?
Chad Ford: All three players are trying to convince NBA GMs that they will be point guards at the next level despite playing exclusively at the 2 in college. Of the three, LaVine actually played the point in high school and Stauskas played it earlier in his career. In a league where there are very few "true" point guards I think all three have the chance to make that transition.
Harris can guard both positions, that's for sure. And I think he has the handle to get where he wants on the floor. I think he has the least experience playing the point, but the talent is there. At UCLA, LaVine was primarily a scoring guard who did whatever he wants. He's got the highest learning curve, but he can create off the bounce and his shooting ability means teams won't be able to play off him.
I've been especially impressed with Stauskas' handle in workouts and the closer you watch the game film the more you see him creating off the dribble. I can imagine him becoming a Steph Curry-type point in the NBA someday.
Jay Bilas: I don't think any of them are natural point guards, and the transition will be difficult for all of them, but I would say Harris. Stauskas is not a point guard. He can handle the ball to get a shot for himself and may be able to initiate some offense, but I don't see him as a point guard. Plus, why take him out of what he does best, which is shoot it? He should be hunting shots, not responsible for getting them for others. LaVine is such a raw product, but his best comparison is Russell Westbrook, also a freak athlete out of UCLA. Westbrook didn't look like a point guard when OKC took him, but became one. Harris is the best all-around player of the bunch. He is small for a shooting guard, but is the best defender, best in transition and he is tough as nails. It won't be easy, but I think could make the transition the easiest of that trio.
4. Looking into the late first or early second round, who's a first-round sleeper who could make an impact in the NBA?
Chad Ford: Jordan Clarkson has been impressive to me the more I've gone back and watched game film and seen him in workouts at the NBA draft combine and at a workout in New York. He's long and athletic, and even though he struggled shooting the ball in the second half of the season, I think he's a better shooter than he showed earlier in the year. Had he not hit a lull in his game (which, by the way came about when he found out his father had cancer) I think he would've been a lock for the Top 20. If someone gets him in the late first or early second, I think they got a steal. He's not a true point guard, but reminds me a little of a young George Hill.
Jay Bilas: I really like Cleanthony Early of Wichita State. I heard it said that Early is the type of player the Spurs would grab up, and he would thrive there. I tend to agree with that. Early may not be an NBA superstar, but he can be a valuable piece to a really good NBA team. Early is long, athletic and he can stretch the floor to NBA range, although his consistency shooting it is an issue. He is also a terrific rebounder, especially on the offensive end. He is not the same player, but he could have the kind of impact that Kawhi Leonard has had.
muzikfrk75
#4080
Roster Reload: OKC Thunder
Few changes needed for Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook & Co.
The Oklahoma City Thunder nearly revisited their 2012 postseason series victory over theSan Antonio Spurs, but fell just short in a heartbreaking six games in the 2014 Western Conference finals. The team rebounded from a 2-0 deficit with the heroic return of an injured Serge Ibaka while Kevin Durant played like the regular-season MVP and Russell Westbrook successfully bounced back from the first major injury of his career and lived up to his billing as the guy who makes Oklahoma City unstoppable and predictably beatable all at the same time.
Head coach Scott Brooks has had his job security questioned after widespread criticism of an offensive system too simplistic to take full advantage of the talents of two of the top 10 players in the NBA. Nonetheless, this team still looks like a perennial contender that could be even better with a couple of subtractions, rather than additions.
2014-15 STATUS QUO BASELINE: 59.4 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: Durant was marvelous once again this season, and at only 25, it's only a matter of time before he overtakes LeBron James as the best player on the planet. In a season missing his running mate Westbrook for long stretches, Durant elevated his game and brought a consistency that bordered on historic, scoring 25 or more points in 41 consecutive games at one stretch.
Westbrook was no slouch himself, completing a full recovery from multiple knee surgeries and appearing no worse for wear, regaining his quickness and explosiveness as well as his fire and desire. His decision-making is as questionable as ever, particularly late in games, but also at 25, he's got a long career of physically overmatching his opponent ahead of him. Serge Ibaka has grown as a more savvy defender, no longer biting on the slightest upfakes or getting caught ball-watching and losing track of his man, even though his improvements have led to drops in his box score stats. He's also continued to expand his range out to becoming a very reliable 3-point threat. Outside those big three, the Thunder got good development, progression and contributions from young bench players like Reggie Jackson, Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones III and even rookie Andre Roberson.
Doolittle: No team can match the star trio of Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka, who combined for 40.9 WARP in 2013-14. That means OKC would have a 50-plus win baseline even if every other player on the roster was replacement level. Unfortunately, that was very nearly the case, as outside of the big three, the rest of the Thunder added just three wins. ATH is way too hard on Jackson, but beyond him, the supporting cast is very young, which is whyCaron Butler was brought on late in the season. All of Oklahoma City's role players are either past their prime, or haven't reached it. It's kind of an awkward mix, but the collective youth of players like Jones, Jackson, Steven Adams and Lamb offers hope that the Thunder can reload via player development.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: If ever there were a team that would benefit from addition by subtraction, it's the Thunder. Brooks' insistence to rely on vets, Derek Fisher and Kendrick Perkins, whose reputations outweighed their production played a large part in their demise. Oklahoma City would benefit greatly from diverting minutes from them to Jackson (who is eligible for a rookie extension this fall), Lamb and Adams, who came along nicely as a backup center.
Thabo Sefolosha is also a free agent, and he's been a pivotal part of their perimeter defense, but regressed as a 3-point shooter in his contract year. That might give the Thunder the opportunity to bring him back at a discounted rate, affording them some cash to acquire another productive backup 4/5. But any discussion about roster changes begins and ends with Perkins: The Thunder either need to bite the bullet and amnesty him, or attach a couple of picks to him and ship him to a team with space (ironically, this is what Oklahoma City used to do to other teams: squeeze first-round picks in return for accepting vets on toxic deals).
Doolittle: With Fisher likely retiring, the Thunder should seek to retain Butler, who fit in well in his new career as a veteran shooting specialist. So you hope to build a bench blending his experience with that of Nick Collison, and hope that Lamb, Jones and Roberson can outperform their combined forecast of about 0.2 WARP. Beyond that, I'm amnestying Perkins for sure, freeing $9.4 million from the OKC cap number and even better getting his minus-3.0 WARP projection off the spreadsheet. Adams will have to drastically lower his 7.5 percent foul rate and 22.5 percent turnover rate to become a starter, but time is on his side. He'll help anchor the second unit along with Jackson, the sixth man.
Sefolosha is a free agent, so the Thunder can upgrade two-fifths of their starting lineup. If they amnesty Perkins, they can do so with a stopgap center and a more dynamic 2-guard, and they'll be able to use a full midlevel exception without entering tax territory -- provided they don't dip below the cap. Chris Kaman could be a cost-efficient option, and Brandon Rush could be a 3-and-defense fit at shooting guard.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: First, as it is for most small-market teams, the concept of amnestying a player (paying him to go away, essentially) is a taboo topic. Is ownership willing to foot the bill? If not, it could prove more costly to find a trade partner for Perkins. Second, the elephant in the room is the Durant-Westbrook dynamic: Would they be better off playing separately? It's hard to justify breaking up two of the best players in a league where multiple stars seem to be the prerequisite for competing. That brings us to Point 3: coaching. Brooks has done a good job developing this roster, but he might have maximized his abilities. A more structured offense might alleviate some of the struggles that Durant and Westbrook experience, especially against sophisticated defenses like Memphis'. Would adding a high-level X's and O's assistant coach suffice? Or do the Thunder need wholesale change in the coaching chair?
Doolittle: Hierarchy is important, and by more clearly establishing that Oklahoma City is Durant's team, not Westbrook's, then perhaps that in itself could get the Thunder to a better place than a first-round exit. It's possible to win a title with two players using more than 30 percent of a team's possessions, but it's rare. The Kobe-Shaq Lakers, the Shaq-Wade Heat and one version of the LeBron-Wade Heat have done it, but that's it. Westbrook's usage rate was 37 percent over the first five games against Memphis. That's one of the highest playoff usage rates in history. Which would be fine, if he weren't playing alongside the best offensive player in the world in Durant.
The Ideal Roster
Elhassan: I've chosen a more conservative route to retooling the Thunder, especially in light of my decision to amnesty Perkins. Although the payroll is extremely low at about $64 million, there's still another $9.4 million in cash going to Perkins' checking account. This still gives Oklahoma City considerable flexibility in terms of spending for wing defenders Rush and Sefolosha, or spending more for a Luol Deng perhaps. Adreian Payne as the 21st overall pick (owed to OKC by Dallas) would be a nice addition as a backup 4/5 who can shoot the ball from distance and rebound as well.
The "Ideal" Roster?
PosPlayer2015 Age2015 Salary2015 WARP
CSteven Adams22$2.2m0.7
PGRussell Westbrook26$15.7m12.2
SGThabo Sefolosha31$3.5m1.7
SFKevin Durant27$19.0m20.6
PFSerge Ibaka26$12.4m9.6
bCNick Collison34$2.2m-0.6
bPGReggie Jackson25$2.2m2.1
bSGJeremy Lamb23$2.2m1.3
bSFBrandon Rush30$1.1m-1.1
bPFPerry Jones III24$1.3m-0.9
RES1Andre Roberson23$1.2m-0.5
RES2Adriean Payne23$1.3m-0.6
Est. Payroll: $64.3 million; Updated Win Range: 59 to 63
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold=new player
Few changes needed for Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook & Co.
The Oklahoma City Thunder nearly revisited their 2012 postseason series victory over theSan Antonio Spurs, but fell just short in a heartbreaking six games in the 2014 Western Conference finals. The team rebounded from a 2-0 deficit with the heroic return of an injured Serge Ibaka while Kevin Durant played like the regular-season MVP and Russell Westbrook successfully bounced back from the first major injury of his career and lived up to his billing as the guy who makes Oklahoma City unstoppable and predictably beatable all at the same time.
Head coach Scott Brooks has had his job security questioned after widespread criticism of an offensive system too simplistic to take full advantage of the talents of two of the top 10 players in the NBA. Nonetheless, this team still looks like a perennial contender that could be even better with a couple of subtractions, rather than additions.
2014-15 STATUS QUO BASELINE: 59.4 wins
(from Bradford Doolittle's ATH system)
I. Main assets (personnel)
Elhassan: Durant was marvelous once again this season, and at only 25, it's only a matter of time before he overtakes LeBron James as the best player on the planet. In a season missing his running mate Westbrook for long stretches, Durant elevated his game and brought a consistency that bordered on historic, scoring 25 or more points in 41 consecutive games at one stretch.
Westbrook was no slouch himself, completing a full recovery from multiple knee surgeries and appearing no worse for wear, regaining his quickness and explosiveness as well as his fire and desire. His decision-making is as questionable as ever, particularly late in games, but also at 25, he's got a long career of physically overmatching his opponent ahead of him. Serge Ibaka has grown as a more savvy defender, no longer biting on the slightest upfakes or getting caught ball-watching and losing track of his man, even though his improvements have led to drops in his box score stats. He's also continued to expand his range out to becoming a very reliable 3-point threat. Outside those big three, the Thunder got good development, progression and contributions from young bench players like Reggie Jackson, Jeremy Lamb, Perry Jones III and even rookie Andre Roberson.
Doolittle: No team can match the star trio of Durant, Westbrook and Ibaka, who combined for 40.9 WARP in 2013-14. That means OKC would have a 50-plus win baseline even if every other player on the roster was replacement level. Unfortunately, that was very nearly the case, as outside of the big three, the rest of the Thunder added just three wins. ATH is way too hard on Jackson, but beyond him, the supporting cast is very young, which is whyCaron Butler was brought on late in the season. All of Oklahoma City's role players are either past their prime, or haven't reached it. It's kind of an awkward mix, but the collective youth of players like Jones, Jackson, Steven Adams and Lamb offers hope that the Thunder can reload via player development.
II. Shake it up
Elhassan: If ever there were a team that would benefit from addition by subtraction, it's the Thunder. Brooks' insistence to rely on vets, Derek Fisher and Kendrick Perkins, whose reputations outweighed their production played a large part in their demise. Oklahoma City would benefit greatly from diverting minutes from them to Jackson (who is eligible for a rookie extension this fall), Lamb and Adams, who came along nicely as a backup center.
Thabo Sefolosha is also a free agent, and he's been a pivotal part of their perimeter defense, but regressed as a 3-point shooter in his contract year. That might give the Thunder the opportunity to bring him back at a discounted rate, affording them some cash to acquire another productive backup 4/5. But any discussion about roster changes begins and ends with Perkins: The Thunder either need to bite the bullet and amnesty him, or attach a couple of picks to him and ship him to a team with space (ironically, this is what Oklahoma City used to do to other teams: squeeze first-round picks in return for accepting vets on toxic deals).
Doolittle: With Fisher likely retiring, the Thunder should seek to retain Butler, who fit in well in his new career as a veteran shooting specialist. So you hope to build a bench blending his experience with that of Nick Collison, and hope that Lamb, Jones and Roberson can outperform their combined forecast of about 0.2 WARP. Beyond that, I'm amnestying Perkins for sure, freeing $9.4 million from the OKC cap number and even better getting his minus-3.0 WARP projection off the spreadsheet. Adams will have to drastically lower his 7.5 percent foul rate and 22.5 percent turnover rate to become a starter, but time is on his side. He'll help anchor the second unit along with Jackson, the sixth man.
Sefolosha is a free agent, so the Thunder can upgrade two-fifths of their starting lineup. If they amnesty Perkins, they can do so with a stopgap center and a more dynamic 2-guard, and they'll be able to use a full midlevel exception without entering tax territory -- provided they don't dip below the cap. Chris Kaman could be a cost-efficient option, and Brandon Rush could be a 3-and-defense fit at shooting guard.
III. Obstacles to success
Elhassan: First, as it is for most small-market teams, the concept of amnestying a player (paying him to go away, essentially) is a taboo topic. Is ownership willing to foot the bill? If not, it could prove more costly to find a trade partner for Perkins. Second, the elephant in the room is the Durant-Westbrook dynamic: Would they be better off playing separately? It's hard to justify breaking up two of the best players in a league where multiple stars seem to be the prerequisite for competing. That brings us to Point 3: coaching. Brooks has done a good job developing this roster, but he might have maximized his abilities. A more structured offense might alleviate some of the struggles that Durant and Westbrook experience, especially against sophisticated defenses like Memphis'. Would adding a high-level X's and O's assistant coach suffice? Or do the Thunder need wholesale change in the coaching chair?
Doolittle: Hierarchy is important, and by more clearly establishing that Oklahoma City is Durant's team, not Westbrook's, then perhaps that in itself could get the Thunder to a better place than a first-round exit. It's possible to win a title with two players using more than 30 percent of a team's possessions, but it's rare. The Kobe-Shaq Lakers, the Shaq-Wade Heat and one version of the LeBron-Wade Heat have done it, but that's it. Westbrook's usage rate was 37 percent over the first five games against Memphis. That's one of the highest playoff usage rates in history. Which would be fine, if he weren't playing alongside the best offensive player in the world in Durant.
The Ideal Roster
Elhassan: I've chosen a more conservative route to retooling the Thunder, especially in light of my decision to amnesty Perkins. Although the payroll is extremely low at about $64 million, there's still another $9.4 million in cash going to Perkins' checking account. This still gives Oklahoma City considerable flexibility in terms of spending for wing defenders Rush and Sefolosha, or spending more for a Luol Deng perhaps. Adreian Payne as the 21st overall pick (owed to OKC by Dallas) would be a nice addition as a backup 4/5 who can shoot the ball from distance and rebound as well.
The "Ideal" Roster?
PosPlayer2015 Age2015 Salary2015 WARP
CSteven Adams22$2.2m0.7
PGRussell Westbrook26$15.7m12.2
SGThabo Sefolosha31$3.5m1.7
SFKevin Durant27$19.0m20.6
PFSerge Ibaka26$12.4m9.6
bCNick Collison34$2.2m-0.6
bPGReggie Jackson25$2.2m2.1
bSGJeremy Lamb23$2.2m1.3
bSFBrandon Rush30$1.1m-1.1
bPFPerry Jones III24$1.3m-0.9
RES1Andre Roberson23$1.2m-0.5
RES2Adriean Payne23$1.3m-0.6
Est. Payroll: $64.3 million; Updated Win Range: 59 to 63
Notes: Est. Payroll includes built-in minimum salary slots beyond top 12 on roster; Updated Win Baseline includes a coaching adjustment. Bold=new player
STAN JONES
Fire John Harbaugh
NBA - Redoing the 2010 draft, John Wall still No. 1, Evan Turner plummets - ESPN
@Skooby thanks i advance breh
@Skooby thanks i advance breh
Redraft 2010: George or Wall No. 1?
We've redrafted 2007, 2008 and 2009, so it's only fitting we redraft the last class to have completed its entire rookie scale years. The 2010 class has a few transcendent talents, but also more than its fair share of unfulfilled potential (so far) and unclear futures. The depth of this draft class is dotted with several "behavioral issue" prospects, and the overall talent wanes significantly beyond the top 10, making a redraft of only the lottery the sensible route to follow.
1. Washington Wizards | Actual Pick: John Wall
Amin Elhassan's pick: Wall | David Thorpe's pick: Wall
Thorpe: He's easily the most unique player in this draft class, and a rough start to his career seems to be past him, as he's finally been able to overcome injuries and the toxic locker room of his earlier years to blossom into one of the game's top young point guards.
Elhassan: The Wizards chose wisely. Wall is the best passer among all of the "uber-athletic" point guards in the NBA, and he has the potential to be a dominant defensive player as well. His learning curve has been exciting to watch.
2. Philadelphia 76ers | Actual Pick: Evan Turner
Elhassan's pick: Paul George | Thorpe's pick: DeMarcus Cousins
Elhassan: George has developed into one of the top two-way players in the league, and I would have loved to see him line up alongside Andre Iguodala in what would have been the best perimeter defensive tandem in the NBA. George also would benefit from playing alongside two playmakers (Iguodala and Jrue Holiday), focusing his efforts offensively in catch-and-shoot and coming off screens rather than trying to create off the dribble.
Thorpe: Philly desperately needed a franchise big man to pair with Iguodala and Holiday, and Cousins would have made Thaddeus Young a far better power forward. The Philly fans would have made Cousins grow up faster than the Kings did, that's for sure. Paul George is great, but I don't love him next to Iguodala.
3. New Jersey Nets | Actual Pick: Derrick Favors
Elhassan's pick: DeMarcus Cousins | Thorpe's pick: Paul George
Thorpe: I understand the Nets taking Favors, and remember that George has grown (we suspect) since being drafted. Incredible. In football you need cornerbacks when your main competition has great receivers, and so it is in the NBA when guys such as LeBron James and Dwyane Wade are in your path. George always projected to be a wing stopper and as we know now he's also a special offensive talent.
Elhassan: The reason I dropped Cousins from No. 2 is, despite all his talent, I'm not convinced he "gets" it, and the extreme sense of entitlement coupled with the instability of the Sixers franchise at the time would have been a recipe for disaster. But he's still an elite talent.
4. Minnesota Timberwolves | Actual Pick: Wesley Johnson
Elhassan's pick: Derrick Favors | Thorpe's pick: Favors
Elhassan: I've often said I'd rather have Favors than Cousins as a surer bet long term and a much better defender. Minnesota didn't get the chance to draft him, but if it had, he would have made a marvelous combination with Kevin Love as a defensive protector and excellent finisher.
Thorpe: I don't see Favors as a perfect complement to Love, but he is too good to pass on here. Miami is showing that you can win big without standard 4s and 5s, and Love's shooting skill helps Favors grow to be a better bucket-getter because of the space he'd have to operate.
5. Sacramento Kings | Actual Pick: DeMarcus Cousins
Elhassan's pick: Eric Bledsoe | Thorpe's pick: Bledsoe
Thorpe: This is a case where the player is probably fortunate to have been drafted lower than he should have been. Bledsoe needed time to grow and learn, and the ugly situation in Sacramento might have hurt him (which is your point on the Sixers and Cousins). His incredible energy adds so much to his team and represents the new style of guard in the NBA. Explosive and dynamic.
Elhassan: I couldn't agree more, Coach. I shudder to think what would have happened to his development curve in Sacramento, but it's hard to pass him up knowing his talent.
6. Golden State Warriors | Actual Pick: Ekpe Udoh
Elhassan's pick: Gordon Hayward | Thorpe's pick: Greg Monroe
Elhassan: Although Don Nelson already was checked out in 2010, I still would have loved to see what kind of creative lineups he could have concocted with a big shooting wing who can play-make like Hayward.
Thorpe: Monroe could have given the Warriors significant help inside on both ends of the court. His passing skills would complement Stephen Curry as well. On a good team, Monroe's unique talents would stand out even more.
7. Detroit Pistons | Actual Pick: Greg Monroe
Elhassan's pick: Monroe | Thorpe's pick: Larry Sanders
Thorpe: With Monroe off the board, Detroit would go with Sanders. He's limited in many respects but his shot-blocking skills are at an elite level. And when you can draft someone at No. 7 in a weak draft who has an elite skill, you do it.
Elhassan: Monroe still ends up in Detroit for me. I love his skill level and size, but hate his lack of defensive ability and limited range. Lots of polish, but how high is his ceiling?
8. Los Angeles Clippers | Actual Pick: Al-Farouq Aminu
Elhassan's pick: Ed Davis | Thorpe's pick: Davis
Elhassan: I've liked Davis' game for a while, and in a weird way, I feel like his development has been reversed. Instead of learning from backing up an All-Star early and earning his playing time later, Davis played a lot as a youngster and not as much recently. In L.A., he could have been the perfect "third big" in their rotation, giving the Clippers a lot of diverse lineup possibilities.
Thorpe: Great call on Davis. Just when he appeared to be a breakout guy in Toronto he was sent to Memphis for Rudy Gay. His talent for rebounding, shot-blocking and paint finishes will end up serving some team well as a starting power forward.
9. Utah Jazz | Actual Pick: Gordon Hayward
Elhassan's pick: Lance Stephenson | Thorpe's pick: Hayward
Thorpe: I thought Utah would take him early in the spring of 2010 as both a small forward and a shooting guard. Hayward has not yet realized his considerable potential, but he is a good fit there without doubt.
Elhassan: I first saw Stephenson as an eighth grader at the ABCD camp in New Jersey, and it was very apparent the only thing that would prevent a talent of that magnitude from making it would be the hubris of himself and his circle. He's never looked as good as he does now, and a lot of that is because of the tough love administered by the man who drafted him, Larry Bird. Stephenson would have received the same kind of strict treatment in Utah, which would have been good for his career.
10. Indiana Pacers | Actual Pick: Paul George
Elhassan's pick: Quincy Pondexter | Thorpe's pick: Patrick Patterson
Elhassan: I'll admit, I wasn't sold on Pondexter in college, a scorer who feasted on post play and drawing fouls from inferior competition. He has reinvented himself as a tough defender who is developing into a reliable corner 3-point shooter, and would have fit nicely in Indiana.
Thorpe: I have always seen Patterson as a Udonis Haslem with a better perimeter game coming out of college. He still represents that to me, and would fit Indy's schemes perfectly. Perhaps with Patterson in the fold, Indy could have spent some more money on a shooting guard who fits the Pacers better than Stephenson does, rather than on David West.
11. New Orleans Hornets | Actual Pick: Cole Aldrich
Elhassan's pick: Greivis Vasquez | Thorpe's pick: Avery Bradley
Thorpe: Here's where this draft gets sketchy. Bradley has been stuck in some strange situations in Boston, but his potential is that of a starting level point guard. In New Orleans he would have gotten chances to play right away as a backup to a legend who did not harbor title dreams, and thus he would have been allowed to fail a bit more.
Elhassan: Vasquez is another guy who's done better for himself on the pro level than I thought he would. A scoring playmaker in college, I saw him in a Manu Ginobili mold, albeit much, much, much less athletic. He's successfully made the transition to point guard, and while I'm not convinced he's starting caliber, his placement this high speaks to how shallow I feel this draft class was.
12. Memphis Grizzlies | Actual Pick: Xavier Henry
Elhassan's pick: Larry Sanders | Thorpe's pick: Lance Stephenson
Elhassan: The talent is there as a rim protector, but like Cousins, Sanders has a host of behavioral issues, as well as a healthy dose of delusional self-appraisal. Going to Memphis, playing for the strict Lionel Hollins and behind All-Star talents in Zach Randolph and Marc Gasol, would have straightened him out.
Thorpe: I always think great leaders can absorb strange behavior guys, and with "Z-Bo," Marc Gasol, Tony Allen and Mike Conley, it's hard to imagine that Stephenson wouldn't have grown into a better player than he has thus far in his career. His athletic power and playmaking talent help Memphis immediately in 2010.
13. Toronto Raptors | Actual Pick: Ed Davis
Elhassan's pick: Evan Turner | Thorpe's pick: Greivis Vasquez
Thorpe: I'm with you on Vasquez. I love guys who lack athletic talent yet still find ways to be significant contributors, especially on the perimeter. He has figured it out, and in this draft, being able to acquire a future sixth man/backup point guard would have been a plus. You can't expect to hit home runs on great pitches, singles do just fine. So it is with weak drafts and late lottery picks.
Elhassan: He's been a lightning rod for criticism this year, and hasn't come close to fulfilling the promise that was expected of him, but you have to respect his versatility and he is a tremendous rebounder as a wing. Maybe without being saddled with the expectations that come along with being a top-two pick, he'd be more comfortable developing into a high-level role player.
14. Houston Rockets | Actual Pick: Patrick Patterson
Elhassan's pick: Avery Bradley | Thorpe's pick: Xavier Henry
Elhassan: The man New York Daily News writer Frank Isola affectionately calls "Average Bradley" is a high-level defensive player who can guard up a position. Unfortunately, I agree with Isola's assessment on the offensive end, where his midrange game doesn't quite extend to the 3-point line and he lacks the playmaking to be a full-time point guard. He is what he is: a good defensive combo guard.
Thorpe: I can't help but wonder how Henry would have fit into the scheme in Houston. He has the look now that he did then, a guy who should be a great 3-point shooter. Houston is a great spot for those guys, even if they can do little else.
Tom Brady is no longer a top-5 QB
Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. The elite quarterback Mount Rushmore has been in place for a few years now, a comforting constant in an NFL of consistent turnover and change. But it might be time to wipe one of those four faces off our mountain of elite play. The Tom Brady of 2014 no longer belongs on that monument.
On the surface, this sounds crazy. Brady has been quarterback royalty since he burst onto the scene in 2001, at the start of his second year, when Drew Bledsoe went down. Since that season -- along with the Super Bowl ring and Super Bowl MVP that it brought -- Brady has been a constant at the summit of elite quarterback play. He is a surefire Hall of Famer.
However, his decline is well underway, and it's showing up in one key aspect of his game in particular. Let's take a look at why Brady is no longer a top-five NFL QB, the QBs who should be ranked ahead of him, and what it means for the Patriots this season.
Feeling the heat
Pressure affects every quarterback. The difference between the best quarterbacks and those who just keep the seat warm for the next guy is how shallow the drop-off is between plays from a clean pocket and plays when they feel the pressure. The best quarterbacks are accurate on about 70 percent of passes under pressure (completion percentage adjusted for drops less throwaways, spikes, etc.). Manning had an accuracy rating of 69.0 percent in 2013, and at Brady's peak in 2010 he led the league with an accuracy rating of 70.7 percent on passes under pressure. Since then, however, he has been declining steadily. Last year he was accurate on just 57.6 percent of passes under pressure, 28th in the league.
That accuracy isn't just an abstract concept, either; it results in major negative plays and turnovers, the most damaging plays an offense can have. Brady has been one of the most careful passers of the football ever -- in NFL history, he is second only to Aaron Rodgers in career interception percentage -- but during the past four seasons, Brady's touchdown-to-interception ratio under pressure has gone from 6-to-1 to 4-to-1 to 2-to-1 to 1-to-1 in 2013, with five touchdowns and five interceptions. Pressure is forcing Brady into mistakes -- major mistakes that he never used to make.
His PFF grade -- which is a play-by-play grading of his play in a season -- was plus-33.2 when he was kept clean in 2013, but plummeted to minus-14.8 when he felt pressure. His passer rating experienced a similar fall, dropping more than 30 points from 96.3 to 64.0.
That is a significant swing, and it highlights the fact that Brady needs protection to be successful at this stage of his career.
People point to his lack of receivers in 2013 as a reason for his comparative down year, but it's worth noting that it was also the poorest performance from the New England offensive line for several years. The unit posted its worst pass-blocking efficiency figure (a measure of the sacks, hits and hurries surrendered per pass-protecting snaps) since PFF has been grading tape, and at best the unit was in the middle of the pack when it came to protecting Brady.
Maybe that will improve in 2014, but the point is that an offensive line merely average in pass protection is enough to propel Brady into a down season at this stage in his career.
Avoiding trouble
While Peyton Manning's style mitigates the effect of pressure better than any quarterback in the game, the same is not true for Brady. Manning has an unparalleled ability to sense when pressure is developing and get rid of the football before bad things happen. He was sacked a league-low 17 times in 2013 and pressured on a league-low 22.7 percent of his dropbacks.
You could argue this is due to the Denver offensive line, but the percentage of pressure snaps that resulted in a sack of Manning was also a league-low 11 percent, so I think we can see the obvious trend there.
Brady is still extremely effective when he is in rhythm within the offense, but when things start to break down, he is no longer an efficient passer. When he had the ball in his hands for 2.6 seconds or more in 2013, he completed just 45.1 percent of his passes, worst among 16-game starters.
Brady is not in Manning's class when it comes to mitigating pressure. Brady was sacked more than twice as often as Manning last year despite experiencing pressure on just 10 percent more plays. The percentage of pressure snaps that wound up in a sack of Brady was a much larger figure of 18.4 percent, middle of the pack (14th) compared with Manning's league-leading mark.
This isn't to revisit the age-old Manning versus Brady debate, but simply to point out that at this stage in each player's career, Manning is better equipped to fight off the effects of Father Time than Brady is. There are other factors at work, but it is more than coincidence that Manning enjoyed the best statistical season of his career at age 37, while Brady (a year younger) struggled through one of his worst.
Brady is still extremely effective when he is in rhythm within the offense, but when things start to break down, he is no longer an efficient passer. When he had the ball in his hands for 2.6 seconds or more in 2013, he completed just 45.1 percent of his passes, worst among 16-game starters. His passer rating on those throws was 69.2, worse than all but a handful of replacement-level starters. It is true that his performance spiked when he had a healthy Rob Gronkowski, but that same statement would likely apply to every other quarterback in football; such is the dominance of one of the league's premier tight ends.
Brady's current place
There is no doubt that Brady is still a good quarterback -- his peak was so high that even in the midst of decline there is a lot of room to fall before it becomes a problem -- but there is little doubt at this point that we are witnessing his decline in action. Brady is no longer an elite quarterback. He remains very good, but if the decline continues at the same rate, it won't be long before that is no longer true.
Manning is the standard by which all quarterbacks are measured, and Rodgers and Brees remain worthy of places on the quarterback Mount Rushmore, but Brady has slipped below passers like Philip Rivers (if he maintains his 2013 performance level) and Ben Roethlisberger. Russell Wilson has already led his team to the Super Bowl and has shown a Brady-like knack for making plays at the right time. Andrew Luck is well on his way to surpassing Brady if the Indianapolis Colts can give him a little more help.
Brady remains good enough to keep the Patriots in the Super Bowl mix; he won't become a bad player overnight. But for the first time, it appears that Brady's career has a shelf life, and time is ticking down on it. Perhaps the Pats drafted second-round QB Jimmy Garoppolo at just the right time.