Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)
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Are the Heat better without Wade?
Ever since LeBron James and Dwyane Wade joined forces in 2010, the seedy underbelly of analysis argued that the Miami Heat were better without Wade. The first sign of adversity signaled that James and Wade, as two ball-dominant superstars, couldn't coexist. It was a fractured relationship, beyond repair.
Of course, those theorists have been proved dead wrong over the past four years.
Except for in last year's Finals. Turns out Wade and James were mostly powerless together against the San Antonio Spurs.
In the Finals, the Heat played 230 minutes with James and Wade on the floor together and got blown out by 57 points. The Spurs destroyed them with that star duo on the court. But in a bizarre display of symmetry, in the 71 minutes that James played without Wade, the Heat outscored the Spurs by 57 points.
Minus-57 with James and Wade.
Plus-57 with James, no Wade.
The key to the 2014 rematch will be whether Wade's ineffectiveness in 2013 was a one-year fluke or a trend that the Spurs can exploit. Indeed, Wade was limping to the finish line with troublesome knees. As the Spurs packed the paint, he morphed into a jump-shooter. With little confidence and strength in his legs, he turned into a shell of himself.
A compromised offense
The Heat hope that Wade is better-equipped to handle the same coverage should the Spurs decide to abandon the perimeter. Offensively, the Heat were compromised without an extra 3-point shooter on the floor. With James and Wade on the court, the Heat mustered just 99.5 points per 100 possessions in the Finals, which is the output we might expect of an NBA cellar dweller, not the defending champs. The Heat were diffused and their shooting percentages rotted.
However, that all changed when Wade stepped off the floor.
It was only when the Heat took Wade off the floor that they began to look like themselves. With Ray Allen by his side, James saw new driving lanes and fought his way to the basket. It was stunning to watch what a Hall of Fame 3-point shooter can do to decongest the paint. James was virtually automatic; he missed one layup the entire series without Wade on the floor.
James shot a baffling 14-for-15 (93.3 percent) inside five feet.
But with Wade on the court? That close-range shooting percentage plummeted to 52.8 percent (19-for-36), or nearly sliced in half.
All in all, James saw his per-36 minute averages sink to 18.8 points, 5.3 assists and just 4.1 free throws with Wade on the court. With an extra Spur sagging in the paint, James shot 41.1 percent from the floor and became painfully tentative with his 3-point shot. James' averages with Wade off the court? He scored 28.9 points, dished out 7.6 assists, pulled down 9.6 rebounds and accrued 6.6 free throws per 36 minutes while shooting 53.5 percent from the floor. In other words, James was the MVP again.
Will this year be different?
Wade now appears to have his scoring faculties in order. And when he's playing like this, he can play next to anyone.
Entering the 2013 Finals, Wade had put up just two 20-point outings in 15 postseason games. Two. And he'd never had more than 21 points. But so far this postseason, Wade has slalomed his way to five 20-point outings in his past nine games. The 28-game absence in the regular season as part of the Heat's maintenance program appears to have paid off. He has averaged 18.7 points per game this postseason in fewer minutes, compared to just 15.9 points last postseason.
Wade has often said that his jump shot is the barometer for his health. When he has his legs underneath him, he can get better lift on his jumper and his shot mechanics stay sound. So far, so good. Wade has seen much better success with his jump shot, which could prove to be pivotal in this series. He's shooting 45 percent on his jumpers according to Basketball-Reference.com shooting data whereas that was just 39 percent last postseason.
But the Heat must be careful here. Wade has become oddly reliant on his 3-point shot, an area of his game that had been in hibernation until only recently. In the Pacers series alone, he shot 13 3-pointers and made six of them. After the All-Star break in the regular season, Wade took just nine 3-pointers and missed them all. For his career, he is a 28.9 percent 3-point shooter on 1,211 attempts. In NBA history, only Charles Barkley has shot worse than Wade with as many 3-point attempts (26.6 percent).
The Spurs are smart, and they will likely tempt Wade to continue firing up from downtown, so trusting the sample size over the long term will prevail. Wade didn't take a 3-pointer in the Finals last year, but the Spurs might hope that changes.
The Mike Miller factor
It might end up being that the Heat will thrive once again with James surrounded by 3-point shooters. With Allen and Mike Miller on the floor next to James, the Heat outscored the Spurs 188-135 in 71 minutes, with a preposterous offensive rating of 139.6 points per 100 possessions. Recreating that magic will be essential for the Heat regardless of whether Wade is feeling healthy or not.
Who fills Miller's role will be an interesting dynamic to monitor, but the notion that Miller rescued the Heat in the series isn't entirely accurate. After a few scorching-hot performances in Games 1-3, Miller was inserted into the starting lineup for Game 4 when the Heat tied up the series at 2-2. But what often gets left out of the picture is that Miller was held scoreless for three of his four starts.
The Heat have been much better this postseason with Wade and James playing together. They've outscored opponents by 51 points with that tandem on the floor, and there haven't been any screams about their on-court chemistry. Indeed, Wade looks healthier, but don't discount one theory that the Heat have added an additional floor-spacer to their James-Wade lineups. His name? Chris Bosh.
In last year's Finals against the Spurs, guess how many 3-pointers Bosh made? Zilch. This postseason, he's made 1.7 3-balls per game and at a 41 percent clip. Bosh can help Heat fans forget about Miller's departure, and pulling Tim Duncan out of the paint will make it easier for Wade and James to do their work. While it's true that Rashard Lewis and Shane Battier can fill the Miller role to some degree, much of the burden will fall on Bosh spacing the floor better than he did last Finals.
The Heat were able to overcome the James-Wade struggles last postseason. Wade had a monstrous Game 4 to revitalize the Heat after a 36-point blowout in Game 3. But on balance, the Heat were compromised when they played James and Wade together.
Ultimately, the Heat were able to squeak by in seven games (the Spurs actually outscored the Heat in the series), but the Spurs are better this time around. The Heat had better hope the James-Wade partnership is better, too, because it will be tested.
arthurli22
Rookie
Draft rumors: Cavs mum on No. 1
• Once again, the Cleveland Cavaliers are on the clock with the No. 1 pick. And once again, no one really has a clue what the Cavs are going to do with it.
Last year, everyone -- journalists, NBA teams, even Anthony Bennett's agent -- had no idea who the Cavs were going to select No. 1 until Bennett's name was announced. There were some rumblings the day of the draft that Bennett might be the guy -- but nothing definitive.
That obviously creates a lot of uneasiness and unpredictability throughout the draft.
The Cavs are giving long looks to Joel Embiid, Andrew Wiggins and Jabari Parker.
Embiid is getting the first workout of the three. They'll be the only team to get a good look at his back and see him on the court. If the Cavs commit, his agent, Arn Tellem will shut him down and that will be the only workout he does.
But don't expect that to happen. A team source in Cleveland said it's unlikely the Cavs will commit to any player leading up to the draft.
"We have to keep our options open," the source said. "Once you commit, your hands are tied. The good thing about the No. 1 pick is that you have lots of options. Embiid is a great prospect and he might very well be the choice at No. 1. But until you see all three and, more importantly, until we understand the trade market, it just makes no sense to make any promises."
While Embiid fits a need and may have the best upside of anyone in the draft, there are several reasons the Cavs may not go that direction. Remember, last year they felt the same way about Nerlens Noel all year and eventually balked at taking him No. 1.
First, team doctors are going to have to get comfortable with his back. If there is any hint that it may require more treatment or need long-term correction, the chances of Embiid going No. 1 dwindle. The Cavs need a player who can play now, and the feeling is that Embiid, who already is the least experienced of the top prospects, can't afford to miss summer league and training camp. You saw what happened to Bennett last season -- they don't want to repeat that again this season.
Second, owner Dan Gilbert is pushing new Cavs GM David Griffin to make the playoffs this season. The Cavs' ability to do that will, in part, be connected to how much help they get from their pick this season. Embiid is going to have to make the case that he can help them now. I don't think that's out of the question, by the way. Most experts thought Embiid would take more than a year to be an impact player in Kansas. Instead, by February, he was oftentimes the best player on the floor for the Jayhawks.
We've already gone over the cases for Parker and Wiggins and won't do so here. Parker is the obvious choice if the team wants immediate impact and would definitely fit a need if the team is convinced Luol Deng won't be returning. Wiggins is a compromise. He's talented enough, especially on the defensive end, to make an immediate impact. But he still has as much upside as anyone in the draft.
But I think the Cavs' preferred route would to be a trade that thins out their roster and adds a young veteran who could immediately lift the Cavs' long-term chances. The Minnesota Timberwolves' Kevin Love has been the most often mentioned pickup. But the Cavs also have their eye on several other bigs, including the Chicago Bulls' Joakim Noah, the Portland Trail Blazers' LaMarcus Aldridge and the Atlanta Hawks' Al Horford.
• The Cavs aren't the only team open to trading their lottery pick.
Multiple league sources say that there are a surprising number of top picks for "sale" this year.
"I thought getting a lottery pick via trade would be virtually impossible this year," one NBA GM told Insider. "It's not. There are a lot of teams in the lottery right now that would prefer a proven player. A lot of owners have lost their patience with the rebuilding process."
Among the teams that would be open to trading their lottery pick? It's highly likely that the Milwaukee Bucks, Philadelphia 76ers, Orlando Magic and Utah Jazz are all holding onto their picks. However, after pick No. 5 things are much more fluid. Sources say that the Boston Celtics, Los Angeles Lakers, Sacramento Kings, Charlotte Hornets, Timberwolves and Phoenix Suns are all open to offers.
While picks No. 5-14 don't hold the same value as a top-4 pick in this draft (which explains why so many anonymous GMs are now suddenly praising the middle of the lottery and questioning whether there really is a top tier of four players) there still is a lot of talent at this point in the draft and a number of bad teams would love to get their hands on a second pick.
While the Celtics, Lakers, Kings, Hornets, Wolves and Suns aren't likely to get an All-Star for their picks, they should be able to score players or multiple assets that help their teams right now. Look for the Bucks, Hawks, Mavs, Blazers and Raptors to be especially busy trying to move up or acquire a second pick.
• NBA team workouts have begun in earnest.
Getting good information about how players are performing in those workouts is especially challenging. Agents obviously have incentive to call and tell reporters that their client "won" the workout or outperformed a player vying for the same roster spot. GMs rarely want to tip their hands and often offer misleading reports about who played well.
But there are other ways of getting information here and a week into the process there are a few tidbits I'm comfortable passing on.
Notes
• Indiana's Noah Vonleh continues to make the case that he's the best power forward prospect in the class. He held a workout for NBA execs in Long Island last weekend that was a wow for many of the people there.
"Vonleh was good," one NBA exec texted me. "Didn't shoot it well but everything else was very good to ridiculously good."
Another exec was even more complimentary: "Vonleh's got elite physical tools and is very skilled. He should be in the same group with Wiggins, Embiid, Parker and [Dante] Exum."
While there is still a strong case to be made for Kentucky's Julius Randle and Arizona's Aaron Gordon as the top power forward in this draft, the momentum seems to be still going Vonleh's way. He had his first team workout in Sacramento on Monday and works out for the Lakers on Wednesday, the Magic next Monday and the Celtics on June 12.
• Marcus Smart, Tyler Ennis and Elfrid Payton appear to be getting early head-to-head matchups in workouts. The three worked out against each other in Sacramento on Monday and are scheduled to work out again on Wednesday for the Lakers.
Smart has also had a workout in Orlando already. Payton has worked out for the Bulls and Ennis has had a workout with the Raptors. A month ago, there was a pretty clear pecking order with Smart at the head of that group, followed by Ennis and then followed by Payton.
All three players helped themselves at the NBA combine, despite not playing in the drills. Their measurements and athletic testing were terrific. And all three were impressive in their individual workout sessions that Insider saw in New York and L.A.
I think Smart still has the lead over those other two and is most likely the second point guard taken after Dante Exum. Depending on where Exum goes, Smart could go as high as No. 4 to the Magic.
Payton appears to be closing the gap considerably -- something reflected in Payton's move to No. 13 on our Big Board. Several team sources say he's in the mix at No. 8 in Sacramento after a terrific workout there. The Hornets at No. 9 and the Magic at No. 12 are possibilities, as well. I doubt he gets past the Bulls or Raptors in the mid-first round.
Ennis is also more than holding his own and looks to be sitting in that same range between No. 8 and No. 20.
• Missouri's Jordan Clarkson was once projected as a first-rounder on our Big Board before a slide in the second half of the season caused his stock to dip. He looked much better at the draft combine in mid-May and that performance has carried on to other workouts, as well.
Clarkson has worked out for the Bulls and Heat already has a workout scheduled Tuesday with the Raptors. A handful of GMs raved about him in a group workout he did in Long Island last weekend for NBA GMs. He seems to have moved confidently into the mix in the late first round.
• Louisville's Russ Smith is riding on a high since being one of the lone standouts in a two-day league-wide workout the NBA scheduled in L.A. right after the draft lottery.
He's since gone on to work out with the Celtics, Suns, Thunder and Heat and seems to be moving into the discussion as a possible late first-round pick.
"Everyone knows Russ is one of the quickest players in this draft and he can obviously put the ball in the basket," one GM said. "But I think he's been showing off that when he wants to be, he can be a guy who can really play point guard. He seems like a perfect change-of-pace guard who can score and speed up the game coming off the bench."
FreedS[ohh]lave
Banned
Almost champions: Teams 6-10
6. 1957 ST. LOUIS HAWKS
CHAMP ODDS
86.0%
Series: 1957 NBA Finals | Opponent: Boston Celtics
Regular-season record: 34-38 (T-No. 1 in West)
SCENARIO A
Win Game 7 of NBA Finals
Probability: 86.0%
Game 7 between the Hawks and the Celtics in 1957 is the only deciding game in Finals history to require two overtimes, meaning the Hawks came agonizingly close to winning the title on the road. Their chances peaked when they were up four with less than two minutes remaining in regulation. They still led by one and had a chance to extend it when rookie Bill Russell blocked Jack Coleman's shot and scored at the other end to give the Celtics the lead.
St. Louis forced overtime with two Bob Pettit free throws and tied the score again in the extra session on a Coleman jumper. The Hawks had a chance to extend the game to a third OT, but Pettit's shot at the buzzer -- set up by a full-court pass by player-coach Alex Hannum that deflected off the backboard to the St. Louis star -- rolled off, giving Boston its first title.
Photo credit: AP Photo (Note: This shot is not from the 1957 Finals.)
7. 1978 SEATTLE SUPERSONICS
CHAMP ODDS
85.9%
Series: 1978 NBA Finals | Opponent: Washington Bullets
Regular-season record: 47-35 (No. 4 in West)
SCENARIO A
Win Finals up 3-2
Probability: 85.9%
Before the move to a 2-3-2 format, teams with home-court advantage that led the Finals 3-2 won the series 86.7 percent of the time (13-2). The 1978 Sonics, who were a win away from the first title in franchise history, were one of the two exceptions.
The Washington Bullets dominated Game 6 at home, winning 117-82 to set up the deciding Game 7 in Seattle. Long before his days as a clutch hero for the Celtics, Dennis Johnson shot 0-for-14 for the Sonics as the Bullets came back with a 105-99 victory.
Photo credit: Getty Images/NBA Photo Library
8. 2010 BOSTON CELTICS
CHAMP ODDS
84.3%
Series: 2010 NBA Finals | Opponent: L.A. Lakers
Regular-season record: 50-32 (No. 4 in East)
SCENARIO A
Win Game 7 of NBA Finals (8:24 3Q)
Probability: 84.3%
In 2010's deciding Game 7 at the Staples Center, the host Los Angeles Lakers came out flat offensively, shooting 26.5 percent in the first half, including 3-of-14 for Kobe Bryant and 3-of-12 for Pau Gasol. The Celtics led most of the first three quarters and maxed out their win probability with a 13-point edge at the 8:24 mark of the third quarter.
Boston would score just 12 points over the next 13 minutes, allowing the Lakers to tie the game at 61 with 6:29 to play and eventually finish off the Celtics for their second consecutive championship.
Photo credit: AP Photo/Jae C. Hong
9. 1955 FORT WAYNE PISTONS
CHAMP ODDS
84.2%
Series: 1955 NBA Finals | Opponent: Syracuse Nationals
Regular-season record: 43-29 (No. 1 in West)
SCENARIO A
Win Game 7 of NBA Finals
Probability: 84.2%
Like the 2010 Celtics, the Pistons had an early edge on the road in Game 7. They led by 10 points after one quarter and by as many as 17 early in the second before the host Syracuse Nationals rallied to cut the deficit to six by halftime. The thrilling Game 7 was tied with 12 seconds left. After George King gave the Nationals the lead at the free throw line, a no-call allowed Syracuse's clinching steal to stand.
The outcome was fitting. Had the NBA not adopted Nationals owner Danny Biasone's suggestion to implement the 24-second shot clock before the season, Fort Wayne could have stalled with the big early lead and Biasone's team would never have had a chance to come back.
Photo credit: Diamond Images/Getty Images
10. 1995 ORLANDO MAGIC
CHAMP ODDS
84.0%
Series: 1995 NBA Finals | Opponent: Houston Rockets
Regular-season record: 57-25 (No. 1 in East)
SCENARIO ASCENARIO B
Win Game 1 of NBA Finals (0:03 4th)
Probability: 99.2%Win Finals up 1-0
Probability: 84.2%
Despite facing the defending-champion Rockets, the Magic entered the 1995 Finals as heavy statistical favorites. They had won 10 more games during the regular season. And while Houston knocked off three teams with better records than Orlando en route to the Finals, my model still had the Magic favored to win the series 76.7 percent of the time.
Those chances had improved with 10.5 seconds left in Game 1 and Orlando up three. A single free throw would likely have won the game, but Orlando's Nick Anderson missed four in a row, setting up Kenny Smith's game-tying 3-pointer. Hakeem Olajuwon's tip-in won the game in overtime, and the Rockets never looked back, sweeping the series. With hindsight, Houston was the better team; but the outcome might have looked different if not for the heartbreaking opener.
Photo credit: AP Photo/Elaine Thompson
@Jplaya2023
Why do I only see you asking @Skooby for things, and I did a simple CTRL+F on the last page and you didn't dap the man once
Why do I only see you asking @Skooby for things, and I did a simple CTRL+F on the last page and you didn't dap the man once
Tom Brady is no longer a top-5 QB
Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Aaron Rodgers. The elite quarterback Mount Rushmore has been in place for a few years now, a comforting constant in an NFL of consistent turnover and change. But it might be time to wipe one of those four faces off our mountain of elite play. The Tom Brady of 2014 no longer belongs on that monument.
On the surface, this sounds crazy. Brady has been quarterback royalty since he burst onto the scene in 2001, at the start of his second year, when Drew Bledsoe went down. Since that season -- along with the Super Bowl ring and Super Bowl MVP that it brought -- Brady has been a constant at the summit of elite quarterback play. He is a surefire Hall of Famer.
However, his decline is well underway, and it's showing up in one key aspect of his game in particular. Let's take a look at why Brady is no longer a top-five NFL QB, the QBs who should be ranked ahead of him, and what it means for the Patriots this season.
Feeling the heat
Pressure affects every quarterback. The difference between the best quarterbacks and those who just keep the seat warm for the next guy is how shallow the drop-off is between plays from a clean pocket and plays when they feel the pressure. The best quarterbacks are accurate on about 70 percent of passes under pressure (completion percentage adjusted for drops less throwaways, spikes, etc.). Manning had an accuracy rating of 69.0 percent in 2013, and at Brady's peak in 2010 he led the league with an accuracy rating of 70.7 percent on passes under pressure. Since then, however, he has been declining steadily. Last year he was accurate on just 57.6 percent of passes under pressure, 28th in the league.
That accuracy isn't just an abstract concept, either; it results in major negative plays and turnovers, the most damaging plays an offense can have. Brady has been one of the most careful passers of the football ever -- in NFL history, he is second only to Aaron Rodgers in career interception percentage -- but during the past four seasons, Brady's touchdown-to-interception ratio under pressure has gone from 6-to-1 to 4-to-1 to 2-to-1 to 1-to-1 in 2013, with five touchdowns and five interceptions. Pressure is forcing Brady into mistakes -- major mistakes that he never used to make.
His PFF grade -- which is a play-by-play grading of his play in a season -- was plus-33.2 when he was kept clean in 2013, but plummeted to minus-14.8 when he felt pressure. His passer rating experienced a similar fall, dropping more than 30 points from 96.3 to 64.0.
That is a significant swing, and it highlights the fact that Brady needs protection to be successful at this stage of his career.
People point to his lack of receivers in 2013 as a reason for his comparative down year, but it's worth noting that it was also the poorest performance from the New England offensive line for several years. The unit posted its worst pass-blocking efficiency figure (a measure of the sacks, hits and hurries surrendered per pass-protecting snaps) since PFF has been grading tape, and at best the unit was in the middle of the pack when it came to protecting Brady.
Maybe that will improve in 2014, but the point is that an offensive line merely average in pass protection is enough to propel Brady into a down season at this stage in his career.
Avoiding trouble
While Peyton Manning's style mitigates the effect of pressure better than any quarterback in the game, the same is not true for Brady. Manning has an unparalleled ability to sense when pressure is developing and get rid of the football before bad things happen. He was sacked a league-low 17 times in 2013 and pressured on a league-low 22.7 percent of his dropbacks. You could argue this is due to the Denver offensive line, but the percentage of pressure snaps that resulted in a sack of Manning was also a league-low 11 percent, so I think we can see the obvious trend there.
Brady is still extremely effective when he is in rhythm within the offense, but when things start to break down, he is no longer an efficient passer. When he had the ball in his hands for 2.6 seconds or more in 2013, he completed just 45.1 percent of his passes, worst among 16-game starters.
Brady is not in Manning's class when it comes to mitigating pressure. Brady was sacked more than twice as often as Manning last year despite experiencing pressure on just 10 percent more plays. The percentage of pressure snaps that wound up in a sack of Brady was a much larger figure of 18.4 percent, middle of the pack (14th) compared with Manning's league-leading mark.
This isn't to revisit the age-old Manning versus Brady debate, but simply to point out that at this stage in each player's career, Manning is better equipped to fight off the effects of Father Time than Brady is. There are other factors at work, but it is more than coincidence that Manning enjoyed the best statistical season of his career at age 37, while Brady (a year younger) struggled through one of his worst.
Brady is still extremely effective when he is in rhythm within the offense, but when things start to break down, he is no longer an efficient passer. When he had the ball in his hands for 2.6 seconds or more in 2013, he completed just 45.1 percent of his passes, worst among 16-game starters. His passer rating on those throws was 69.2, worse than all but a handful of replacement-level starters. It is true that his performance spiked when he had a healthy Rob Gronkowski, but that same statement would likely apply to every other quarterback in football; such is the dominance of one of the league's premier tight ends.
led his team to the Super Bowl and has shown a Brady-like knack for making plays at the right time. Andrew Luck is well on his way to surpassing Brady if the Indianapolis Colts can give him a little more help.
Brady's current place
There is no doubt that Brady is still a good quarterback -- his peak was so high that even in the midst of decline there is a lot of room to fall before it becomes a problem -- but there is little doubt at this point that we are witnessing his decline in action. Brady is no longer an elite quarterback. He remains very good, but if the decline continues at the same rate, it won't be long before that is no longer true.
Manning is the standard by which all quarterbacks are measured, and Rodgers and Brees remain worthy of places on the quarterback Mount Rushmore, but Brady has slipped below passers like Philip Rivers (if he maintains his 2013 performance level) and Ben Roethlisberger. Russell Wilson has already led his team to the Super Bowl and has shown a Brady-like knack for making plays at the right time. Andrew Luck is well on his way to surpassing Brady if the Indianapolis Colts can give him a little more help.
Brady remains good enough to keep the Patriots in the Super Bowl mix; he won't become a bad player overnight. But for the first time, it appears that Brady's career has a shelf life, and time is ticking down on it. Perhaps the Pats drafted second-round QB Jimmy Garoppolo at just the right time.
FreedS[ohh]lave
Banned
Hopefully he's repping him@Jplaya2023
Why do I only see you asking @Skooby for things, and I did a simple CTRL+F on the last page and you didn't dap the man once
@Jplaya2023
Why do I only see you asking @Skooby for things, and I did a simple CTRL+F on the last page and you didn't dap the man once
@Jplaya2023 cmon bruh
Best long-term No. 1 pick
Chad Ford and Jay Bilas return to look at the 2014 NBA draft through a long-term lense. Which players' careers will have endurance? Who will leave a lasting legacy?
1. Who's the better player in five years? Jabari Parker or Andrew Wiggins?
Jay Bilas: I like Wiggins to be better, but it is a really close call. Truthfully, I wouldn't be surprised either way. Wiggins has the higher ceiling as an athlete and prospect. He excels in transition and has a lightning-quick first step. His shooting stroke is very good, and he is a good free throw shooter who gets to the line. Wiggins is also the superior defender. Parker is ahead of Wiggins on the offensive end and has more of a hunger to score right now. Parker is more versatile, and comfortable inside or out. He is bigger, stronger, better in the post, and the better and more physical rebounder. Parker is behind Wiggins on the defensive end, both on and off the ball. The one thing that sticks out on Wiggins is he doesn't yet show a killer instinct, or the proclivity to take over. Parker has displayed that more often, but if Wiggins develops that trait, he is the better prospect.
Chad Ford: I agree with Jay on this one. I do really like Parker. I think he's as close to a sure thing as you get in this draft for all the reasons Jay mentioned. Yes, I have questions about his defense -- as do scouts -- but I think he'll ultimately be able to guard 4s in the NBA, and even if he can't, he'll be able to score enough to justify being on the floor. He won't be the only NBA All-Star who can't or doesn't guard anyone. Wiggins is more of a risk. While I don't see any way he's a bust, I do think there's a chance Parker has the better career. But there's also a chance that Wiggins' career far outshines Parker. The reason for me has to do with the physical and athletic advantages he possesses. Most of the elite players in the NBA have freakish physical or athletic characteristics that give them an inherent advantage that other players can't get ... no matter how hard they train. Skill-wise, Wiggins is still a work in progress, but I think he'll work hard, polish the areas that need polishing, and when he catches up with Parker in the skills department, he'll be the better player.
2. You need a wing and Nik Stauskas, Gary Harris and James Young are all on the board. Who do you take?
Bilas: I take Gary Harris, even though Young is the longer and bigger athlete. Although smaller at 6-foot-4, Harris is tough, gets to the basket in transition and off the bounce, and can shoot it from range or off the dribble. He is a good guard rebounder and an excellent individual defender who has a football mentality. Harris has had some injuries, but he stayed healthy this past season. Stauskas is the best shooter, and his special NBA skill may win out in the long run. Young just oozes potential. The lefty has deep range, length and he can get to the rim and finish, something he probably underutilized at Kentucky. Another tough call, and you could make a fair case for any one of the three.
Ford: I agree with Jay that this is a very tough call. Young probably has the most upside because of his size advantage. Stauskas already has two elite NBA skills -- he can shoot it from anywhere, and he has the confidence to take that shot from anywhere. But it's Harris' ability to get it done on both ends that gives him the advantage to me. Basketball is played on both ends, and Harris plays, and plays hard, on both ends of the floor. I think his shooting inconsistencies this year were an anomaly. I think he makes up for his lack of elite size with quickness and athleticism. And I think Harris has the potential to be a point guard. While I think it's very close between Stauskas and Harris -- I'd lean Harris, too.
3. Who will average the most PPG in his NBA career? Doug McDermott or T.J. Warren?
Bilas: Wow, these are really good questions. I would take McDermott on this one. He is bigger and has deeper range on his shot. McDermott is better as a post player, but Warren has an uncanny knack to consistently make shots that you just cannot practice. He hits runners, floaters and is uncanny in his ability to get shots off and make them. While Warren is an instinctive scorer who is long-armed and hungry, he does not shoot it well from deep. McDermott is not just a deep-range shooter, but just knows how to play, and he is very skilled and versatile. Tough call, but I go with McDermott.
Ford: Again, I'm agreeing with Jay here. These two, along with Parker, are the hungriest scorers in the draft. They all three play in constant attack mode. I think the difference, for me, is that McDermott's shooting ability gives him a guaranteed NBA skill. I think he might be the best shooter in the draft, and his play with the Team USA Select Team gave first-hand evidence at how lethal he can be when the opposing team isn't using its whole defensive game plan to stop him. Shooting 3s is like shooting layups for McDermott. Warren's game is so unorthodox. You can't really sit on him defensively because he can score 50 different ways. But that lack of an elite jumper from deep limits him, and I think keeps him from having the upside of McDermott.
4. K.J. McDaniels, Jerami Grant and Glenn Robinson III are all great athletes who are a jump shot away from being lottery picks. Which player is the most likely to succeed in the NBA?
Bilas: All have a terrific chance because they are so athletic, and they can hang with anyone in the league in that category. K.J. McDaniels is intriguing to me. He is an excellent perimeter defender and perimeter shot-blocker. He reminds me a bit of Josh Howard or Kawhi Leonard in that regard. McDaniels is also a freak athlete who has a 6-11 wingspan and terrific potential as a defender. Grant is a pogo-stick jumper who can rebound and finish around the goal, but he does not have a jump shot at all right now. His offense is way behind, and he lacks ball skills and passing skills. Robinson can shoot it and is a terrific athlete, but he has been inconsistent in his on-court productivity and consistency. All three can be important pieces on a really good team, but I think McDaniels is the player most likely to succeed.
Ford: I've been leaning Grant all year. But the more tape I've watched of McDaniels, the more I think that he's got Josh Howard-like ability. However, I'm not ready to call him Kawhi Leonard (whom we had ranked No. 6 in our Final 2011 Big Board). I don't see that much potential, and he's a bit older than either Grant or Robinson III. But I think he's the best scorer of the group and has the best motor. Defensively he could be a beast. My sleeper here is actually Wichita State's Cleanthony Early. Jay mentioned him last week. Not only is he a terrific athlete (he measured a higher vertical than either McDaniels or Robinson), but he already has a jump shot. If I was choosing between the four, Early would be my guy.