Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)
- Thread starter the cool
- Start date
Too-early 2015 Big Board
Two out of the past three years, the No. 1 player in this file, about 50 weeks removed from next year's NFL draft, went No. 1. But I certainly would never predict that will happen here.
So much will change, and what I'm doing here is just providing an early look at the way I have prospects lined up at this point. I expect the Big Board I release at the end of the summer to have many changes from this version as I spend more time on the 2015 class. There is a ton of projection here, with traits in some cases far outpacing production, and in others, where I think we could actually see notable shifts in things such as playing weight and even position. I have a long way to go until next spring, where I can give you 700 players across position groups.
A couple of parameters: This includes all players who could be eligible for the 2015 NFL draft based on time spent in college, which means juniors and redshirt sophomores qualify. I'm not going to provide a lot of scouting notes at this point with most of the evaluation work on this class still to come.
As a note: In two weeks, I'll release early rankings across every position group, around 200 players in total. That said, here's a way-too-early look at the top 25 draft prospects.
An asterisk denotes a junior for the 2014 season; two asterisks denote a redshirt sophomore.
1. **Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State Seminoles
As remarkable as Winston's freshman campaign was -- massive individual totals, a BCS title, a Heisman Trophy -- he'll improve as a football player. He'll anticipate better, move with better precision in the pocket, and he'll do so while again being surrounded by a ton of talent. The question is whether he'll mature and find a way to move past what I personally consider major character concerns. He's a great football prospect, but he has a great deal of work to do to prove he's a player worthy of leading an NFL franchise. Maybe 2014 shouldn't be his final year in Tallahassee.
2. Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M Aggies
Recent No. 6 overall pick Jake Matthews stayed at Texas A&M for his senior season and made the move from right tackle to left tackle. The moved paid off. Now Ogbuehi will do the same and hopefully get a similar payoff next spring. He has great length and athleticism, and certainly could have factored into the first-round mix in 2014 had he entered the draft.
3. *Randy Gregory, DE/OLB, Nebraska Cornhuskers
He lines up at defensive end for the Huskers, but Gregory, listed at 6-foot-6 and 245 pounds, is a special athlete who could easily profile as a 3-4 outside linebacker. He piled up 10.5 sacks last year, but isn't bad against the run and will improve in that area. He can really jump off the screen. Major talent.
4. *Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon Ducks
I thought Mariota could have pushed to be the top QB taken in the 2014 NFL draft, but I like his decision to come back. Remember, this is a kid who could technically play two more seasons. He's a special athlete and makes so few mistakes -- just four INTs in 386 passing attempts last year -- the key now is to improve his anticipation and become less reliant on his legs. It would not surprise me if he overtakes Winston as the top QB prospect.
5. *Leonard Williams, DL, USC Trojans
He moves extraordinarily well for a kid playing at 6-5 and 290 pounds, and don't be surprised to see the Trojan coaches move him around on the defensive line. He could see time at defensive end as well as D-tackle, and he's going to cause problems for offenses in either spot. He had 12.5 tackles for loss last year and will increase that total in 2014.
6. *Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama Crimson Tide
He averaged 16.4 yards per reception in 2013, which actually represented a drop from the 17-plus he posted as a freshman. Cooper measures between 6-1 and 6-2, but plays bigger, making contested catches and consistently helping his QB. He has been a high-level talent at the position since he came out of Miami Northwestern, and could be the top WR in the 2015 draft if he keeps it up.
7. Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa Hawkeyes
As a run-blocker, Scherff is legitimately fun to watch. He would have been my top-rated run-blocker in the 2014 draft, but he'll return to Iowa and work on his skills as a pass-blocker, anchoring Kirk Ferentz's O-line. He's an absolute mauler, but also a good athlete at 6-5 and 320 pounds.
8. *Dante Fowler, DE, Florida Gators
A very good pass-rusher with good size at 6-3 and about 270 pounds, Fowler has great quickness and a developing arsenal of pass-rushing moves. He's in line for a big season, as he's just hitting his stride.
9. *Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford Cardinal
Has great length at 6-7, and is an easy mover. Peat was steady at left tackle for Stanford in 2013, and has looked like an NFL prospect since his high school days in Arizona. He has NFL bloodlines, as his father, Todd Peat, played six NFL seasons. Andrus will anchor what figures to again be a very good Stanford offensive line in 2014. The Cardinal are churning out linemen at this point.
10. *Shilique Calhoun, DE, Michigan State Spartans
The Big Ten Defensive Lineman of the Year in 2013 really burst onto the scene with his big-play ability -- he actually notched three touchdowns on returns, which included a pick-six. Calhoun has good length at 6-4 and has a lean-looking frame even at 260 pounds, but he anchors well at the point of attack and isn't just a guy flying into the backfield looking for the big play.
11. Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, CB, Oregon Ducks
Had a real shot to be the first CB taken in the 2014 draft. Ekpre-Olomu plays fast, exploding out of his backpedal to make plays when the ball is in front of him, and he's a really easy mover as he turns to run with and mirror receivers. Hard to see him dropping if he's healthy.
12. **Devonte Fields, DE, TCU Horned Frogs
He exploded on the scene as a freshman in 2012, with 18.5 tackles for loss. While he lost pretty much all of last season because of injury, Fields should be back and, based on what I'm told, better than ever. There's some projection here for a player making a comeback, but it's not as if Fields wasn't exceptionally productive when healthy.
13. Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson Tigers
A converted running back, Beasley piled up 13.0 sacks last season. He had a stretch late in the season where it looked as though offenses had figured out how to keep him blocked more consistently, but he finished strong and with a year of experience he should be better in 2014. Given the needed experience on defense, I don't mind the decision to come back, though I think he could have gone in Round 1 two weeks ago.
14. Bryce Petty, QB, Baylor Bears
It's not a surprise to see a Baylor QB with ridiculous totals, and Petty's 4,200 passing yards and 32-3 TD-INT ratio are no exception. But he's more than a product of his system, with a good arm and good size (6- 3 and 220 pounds), and an extra offseason of work and another year in college football will have him ready to help a team early in his NFL career.
15. Tre' Jackson, G, Florida State Seminoles
He's a moster at 6-4 and nearly 340 pounds, and if he stays healthy he'll have 40-plus starts under his belt by the time he enters the draft process. Has a chance to be the first guard taken next spring.
16. *Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA Bruins
He already has 27 games under his belt, and the production has been great. But Hundley made a good decision to return to school and continue to develop as a passer. I think ball placement is a key area for him, but he's got a great feel for the pocket and has outstanding footwork. The arm is also really good. The tools are there, and Hundley has a chance to push his way into the conversation as the top QB in a draft class.
17. *P.J. Williams, CB, Florida State Seminoles
The defensive MVP of the BCS title game will step into a starring role this season. He quietly led the Noles in passes defended last season, and though he came to Tallahassee as a player capable of playing either cornerback or safety, his ability to cover and good size for the position (6-0, 196 pounds) make him a solid prospect at CB.
18. *Kyler Fackrell, OLB, Utah State Aggies
Many people haven't seen him play, but Fackrell is a big-time athlete at 6-5 and about 250 pounds, and he's already started 27 games as he enters his junior season. He had 13.0 tackles for loss last season and could have had more on what was a very good Aggies defense.
19. *Marcus Peters, CB, Washington Huskies
Among the better corners in a conference with a number of good ones, Peters has good size and athleticism, and is a willing tackler. He also picked off five passes last season to lead the Huskies.
20. *Landon Collins, S, Alabama Crimson Tide
Collins was a big-time prospect, and after waiting in line as a freshman in 2012, he came into his own last season, finishing second on the team in tackles behind recent first-rounder C.J. Mosley. Collins is a great athlete and has great football instincts.
21. *Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State Spartans
Mark Dantonio felt he had the best pair of cornerbacks in the nation last season with Waynes and Darqueze Dennard, and while Dennard will now take his game to the Cincinnati Bengals, it's Waynes' time to shine in East Lansing. He'll actually test out better than Dennard when that time comes (NFL combine, etc.) and should help keep the Sparty defense pretty stacked in 2014.
22. *Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State Sun Devils
A junior college success story, Strong piled up 75 catches for more than 1,100 yards in his first season in the Pac-12, and is in line for another big season given the presence of Taylor Kelly at QB. Strong has good size at 6-4 and 200-plus pounds, and can run away from defenders.
23. *Mario Edwards Jr., DE, Florida State Seminoles
It's not fair to say Edwards is still living on his stellar high school reputation, as he ranked second on the Noles last season in tackles for loss with 9.5, but there's room for improvement. He's an outstanding athlete and could play at 290-plus pounds this season, which raises questions about his ultimate position, but Edwards can be special, and we saw flashes of that in the BCS title game.
24. *Nelson Agholor, WR, USC Trojans
It was actually Agholor who led the Trojans in receiving yards last season, not recent second-round pick Marqise Lee (though to be fair, Lee missed three games). Still, Agholor is a very good player, a glider with good top-end speed and the ability to create separation. He'll see a lot of attention in 2014, and the question for me is whether he can add some strength. He's smooth, but he'll need to hold up physically, too.
25. *Todd Gurley, RB, Georgia Bulldogs
This isn't a prediction for his ultimate draft position -- we've seen how the drafting strategy at running back has shifted -- but Gurley is big, powerful and fast in space, and deserves this slot based on his talent level and production. The key will be staying healthy.
Also considered (not in any order):
Cameron Erving, OT, Florida State Seminoles
An experienced tackle prospect who could have entered the mix in 2014 but will help make the Noles' O-line really good in 2014.
Michael Bennett, DE, Ohio State Buckeyes
A productive defensive lineman who had 11.5 tackles for loss in 2013 and will help make the Buckeyes' D-line a potentially dominant force in 2014.
Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington Huskies
A special athlete, the converted safety could become a star at OLB and also could see some reps on offense, where he could mimic UCLA's Myles Jack. (Thompson was a star at RB in high school.)
Noah Spence, DE, Ohio State Buckeyes
Had a breakout season as a sophomore, finishing second to Ryan Shazier in tackles for loss. He, Bennett and Joey Bosa will be tough to tame in 2014.
Ronald Darby, CB, Florida State Seminoles
A burner, Darby has acquitted himself well since being forced into significant reps as a true freshman. This could be a big year.
954UAlreadyknow
All Star
Vonleh's stock continues to soar
Plus a closer look at prospects Ennis, Clarkson, Ross and Birch
NEW YORK -- The NBA draft combine and NBA draft lottery are in the bag. Now it's time for teams to begin digging into individual workouts as the final piece of the puzzle.
I got a head start on Tuesday morning up in Long Island with several top prospects in the draft.
Indiana's Noah Vonleh, Syracuse's Tyler Ennis, Missouri's Jordan Clarkson, Ohio State'sLaQuinton Ross and UNLV's Khem Birch went through a series of drills led by trainer Jay Hernandez for a couple of hours while I sat courtside.
Here's what I learned.
• No one helped themselves more at the combine than Vonleh, despite the fact he didn't do any of the drills there. His measurements (6-foot-9, 6-9.5 in shoes, 7-foot-4.25 wingspan, 9-foot standing reach and the biggest hands of the draft) and his athletic testing numbers (37-inch max vertical jump) make him an elite physical specimen for his position.
But if you've watched Vonleh play this season, you know he's more than just an athlete with great size. He's very skilled and it showed in these workouts.
The biggest thing that jumps out at you about Vonleh is his ability to shoot the basketball with range. Vonleh shot 48.5 percent from beyond the arc at Indiana this season and it wasn't a fluke. He was a shooter in high school and in workouts the same fluid shooting stroke shined. Vonleh has really unlimited range on his jumper. He had no problem stepping back behind the NBA 3-point line and letting it fly. Usually players with large hands struggle with their jumpers (see Rajon Rondo), but it doesn't appear to be an issue for Vonleh.
The only other big man in the draft that can really shoot like Vonleh is Michigan State'sAdreian Payne. In a league that is hungry for stretch 4s who can provide critical spacing (it was the first thing on Steve Kerr's wish list in Golden State), Vonleh is a unique prospect.
But he's more than a shooter. He's put on a lot of muscle this season at Indiana and can thank head coach Tom Crean for helping him develop a more polished low-post game. The knock on Vonleh coming out of high school was that he was a bit of a tweener who relied too heavily on his jump shot. This season Vonleh proved to be a valuable low-post player. He has the size, strength, length and leaping ability to finish around the basket. His low-post moves still need a lot of refinement. But his footwork is solid and he has a strong base to create space in the paint.
And then there are those hands. If you watched a lot of game film on Vonleh, you'd see that he could catch just about anything Yogi Ferrell threw his direction. But watching him in drills, you see how remarkable he really is. Vonleh went through a drill where there were two balls placed on each block of the lane. His goal is to grab a ball and dunk it and then move to the other block, bend down, grab the next ball and dunk it, over and over for 10 dunks. Vonleh is the first player I've ever seen do the drill one-handed. He raced from spot to spot, picking up the ball like it was a tennis ball and dunking it. Those hands will be critical to his success in the pros.
Vonleh also has a reputation as a hard worker both on and off the court and drew praise from scouts in his interviews. He's humble and hungry, two great attributes in a lottery pick.
Where does he go? There are scouts who prefer Julius Randle because he's a more polished low-post scorer or Aaron Gordon because he's a better defender and an even better athlete, but I think Vonleh has the edge right now. He'll never be as explosive as Gordon, but his skill level and size are both much higher. And I doubt he'll ever be the warrior in the paint that Randle can be, but he's got the potential to be very good there and his length and versatility give him more options offensively.
I think his range starts with the Magic at No. 4, the Jazz and Celtics will give him a hard look at No. 5 and No. 6 and I don't think he gets past the Lakers at No. 7.
• Ennis and Clarkson showed a contrast in styles when they were working out with each other.
Ennis is a smooth, steady player who is rock solid fundamentally. He's so effortless out there that there's times when it looks like he's done this his whole life. His poise for a player his age is really remarkable. Watching him move from innovative drill to innovative drill with Hernandez, it was tough to really pick apart anything about his game. He's got a great handle (forget moving through stationary cones, Hernandez made Ennis and Clarkson weave through moving ones on wheels), to passing (Hernandez would throw out small rubber balls and ask Ennis to dribble and pass the basketball to hit the rubber balls before finishing the play) to his shooting mechanics, Ennis may be the most fundamentally sound point guard in the draft.
The knock on him was his lack of elite size and athleticism -- two questions he answered pretty emphatically at the draft combine. While Ennis isn't particularly tall (6-2.5 in shoes) he measured with a terrific 6-7.25 wingspan, securing that coveted plus-5 height-to-wingspan ratio that NBA scouts covet. He also tested better than expected at the combine, with a 36.5-inch maximum vertical and one of the three fastest shuttle drill scores at the event. So he's explosive enough off the floor and the drills show he's got the foot speed to compete in the NBA.
While there are bigger, faster and better shooting point guards with fewer defensive questions (it's so hard to gauge whether Syracuse players can guard their position), there isn't a point guard in the draft with such a complete package of skills. While I think Dante Exum and Marcus Smart will likely go ahead of Ennis, I think he has a great shot of going in the lottery for a team looking for more consistency and poise and less sizzle from their lead guard.
• Clarkson provides a bit more sizzle. He measured 6-5 with a 6-8 wingspan at the draft combine and produced some of the best athletic testing numbers of anyone there (38.5-inch max vertical, a 10.79 lane agility score, a 2.98 shuttle run and a 3.28 three-quarter court sprint). As far as size and athletic abilities go, Clarkson is one of the best point guard prospects in the draft.
The questions scouts have had surround his jump shot and his position. Clarkson started the season shooting the ball well, but his shooting plummeted in the second half of the season. Is he the shooter from the first half or the second half of the year?
At both the combine and at the drills I saw on Tuesday, he looked like the shooter from the first half. Clarkson was one of the top shooters at the combine and it carried over to Tuesday where he really couldn't miss from anywhere on the floor. He has a nice shooting motion and great range on his shot. Why the dip midseason?
There are no definitive answers, but there's a theory. Clarkson's drop in production coincided with the news that his father had been diagnosed with cancer. Clarkson and his father are very close and the news devastated him.
"It was hard to stay focused," Clarkson said. "You find out something like that and it really hurts."
While Clarkson himself won't use it as an excuse for his play in the second half, it does give scouts some leeway to consider the possibility that Clarkson's dip in production was more than a regression to the mean.
As for his point guard skills? He wasn't quite as sharp as Ennis in the workout, but the requisite handle and passing skills are there to be a lead guard. There are so many combo guards running the point in the NBA that Clarkson shouldn't have a hard time fitting in. And even if he can't play the point, his measurements mean that he can easily play the 2 in the NBA.
Clarkson went through his first workout on Monday with the Bulls -- pitted against Zach LaVine, Elfrid Payton and Nick Johnson. A source inside the Bulls said that Clarkson was terrific in the workout.
All of that, combined with some poking around with NBA general managers on Tuesday, leads me to believe that we may have Clarkson ranked too low on our Big Board and in our Mock Draft. Virtually every GM I spoke with said they saw him going somewhere in the 20s. We'll make the adjustments in our next round of the Big Board and Mock.
• Ohio State's Ross got killed in the combine for a body fat measurement that turned everyone's head. At 16.3 percent, he had the highest body fat of anyone in the draft. And he weighed in at 238 pounds, fairly heavy for a small forward.
I can't explain it. I watched him up close in New York on Tuesday and he certainly didn't look fat or out of shape (ditto for Nik Stauskas, who I watched last Tuesday and who also had an unusually high body fat measurement). Ross doesn't look fat. His upper body is toned and he powered through an hour workout for me, despite going through a three-hour one in Cleveland on Monday (he worked out against C.J. Fairand Cleanthony Early in Cleveland, with a team source telling me he shot the ball the best of the group). In fact, of all the guys on the court, he looked the least visibly winded.
And what he did do was shoot the heck out of the basketball. Ross was on fire in the workout, drilling NBA 3-pointer after NBA 3-pointer at just under an 80 percent clip in workouts. He also shot it very well at the combine, going 16-for-25 from NBA range there. While he's not a great athlete for his position (and apparently needs to lower the fat content in his diet), he has good size at 6-7.5 in shoes and a terrific wingspan of 7-1.25. His lack of explosiveness or quickness will affect him as a defender and limit his ability to create his own shot, but if he can just go out there and hit 3-pointers, he'll have a place in the league.
• Birch also looked good in workouts with Vonleh. He has the requisite size, length and standing reach for an NBA power forward (6-9.5 in shoes, 7-1 wingspan, 8-11 standing reach), measured an impressive 35.5-inch vertical and moved very well for a player his size. Birch was one of the best rebounders and shot-blockers in the country for UNLV this season and teams interested in him are primarily looking at him as a potential rim defender. His offense at UNLV was a work in progress. While he finished well around the rim, he shot just 26.7 percent with his jumpers.
In the workout, Birch showed a nice soft touch around the basket, but it's clear he still needs continued work on his perimeter game -- especially compared to Vonleh.
A number of analytics gurus think Birch might be one of the more underrated players in the draft. Clearly he has the defensive tools to make an impact. I don't think he cracks the first round, but he could be a valuable second-round pick.
Ben.
Heisenbrook
It got posted on page 61...the last few posts.
Why Harris is a lottery lock
Plus a closer look at James Young, Elfrid Payton, T.J. Warren and more
THOUSAND OAKS, Calif. -- The entire league is out in Los Angeles this weekend, but on Thursday, ESPN Insider got the best workout of the day. The Los Angeles Clippers have been holding a two-day workout for all 30 NBA teams largely consisting of second-round prospects.
While they were there, I drove up to Thousand Oaks to watch some lottery picks and first-rounders represented by Creative Artists Agency and Roc Nation go at it.
Michigan State's Gary Harris and Dayton's Devin Oliver did a private workout of ball handling drills and shooting. Kentucky's James Young, Louisiana-Lafayette's Elfrid Payton, NC State's T.J. Warren, Washington's C.J. Wilcox, Michigan's Glenn Robinson III and Oakland's Travis Bader went through a series of drills and three-on-three scrimmages led by Don MacLean for a couple of hours while I sat courtside.
Here's what I learned.
Harris' hot shooting
Harris had to skip the draft combine last week thanks to a mild groin strain. He was still nursing the injury here in L.A., and his on-the-court work was limited to some jump shooting and ballhandling drills. The good news is that those are the two things that scouts will be watching closely in workouts, and Harris excelled in the workout. Harris shot the ball very well his freshman season at Michigan State, shooting 41 percent from beyond the arc. His shooting numbers dipped considerably the first half of his sophomore year before he got hot at the end of the season and moved the number up to 35 percent from 3-point range.
In the drills I saw, Harris shot the ball extremely well, nailing 3 after 3 from well beyond the NBA 3-point line. He has great form on his jumper, and his strength allows him to get his shot off with no problem from deep. I expect that he's going to show very well against the Nik Stauskases of the world in workouts.
A number of teams are also looking at Harris as a potential combo guard or point guard at the next level. To that end, trainer Joe Abunassar of Impact Basketball put him through a series of ballhandling drills to show what you can already see in game film -- Harris has a very tight handle and is very, very quick with the ball. While he may not be a pure point guard, in today's NBA, he could easily play the position in most offenses.
Factor in that Harris is the youngest sophomore in the draft, coming off a terrific season in the Big Ten for Michigan State, has the reputation of a high-character, hard-working kid, and is one of the few two-way players in the draft, and I think he remains a lock for the lottery and a likely top-10 pick. He'll work out just about everywhere from Boston at No. 6 to the Bulls at No. 16. The Charlotte Hornets could be an interesting destination for him at No. 9. They need shooting from the wing and Harris' ability to play some point could alleviate Kemba Walker in stretches.
Payton ready for prime time
The most impressive workout I've seen this draft season came from Payton on Thursday. He has the least exposure of any of the prospects here -- but has as much or more talent as anyone on the floor.
Payton had a big year, averaging 19.2 points, 5.9 assists, 2.3 steals and an incredible 8.9 free throws per game -- good for second in the country. Very few players possess his combination of size, quickness, defensive toughness and ability to get to the rim. I've had more than one NBA scout compare him to a young Gary Payton, and I think the comparison is a really good one.
The biggest knock on Payton has been his shooting. He shot just 26 percent from 3-point range this season on 14-for-54 shooting and just 24 percent from 2-point jumpers. He's been working on his jump shot since arriving in L.A. in early April and it looks much better. He was hitting NBA 3s with ease in the workout and his shooting mechanics look much more consistent. His shot isn't broken, though he'll obviously have to show he can hit these in game settings.
To that end, Payton participated in very competitive 3-on-3 sessions and was not only getting to the rim at will, he was hitting those shots in the context of live action. Payton is a "lights-on" player whose intensity quickens when in actual live settings. He was dominant on both ends in workouts, exploding to the hole, finishing above the rim and playing stifling defense. On multiple occasions he blocked James Young's shot -- the same James Young that measured with a 7-foot wingspan at the combine last week.
After Marcus Smart, I'm not sure there's a better floor leader and defender in the draft than Payton. His quickness and ability to get to the rim are special and may actual make him a better long-term prospect than Smart. And he just turned 20 in February, making him a year younger than most juniors.
While he's currently projected by ESPN.com as a mid-first-round pick, I believe he deserves to get a close look in the lottery from the Lakers, Kings, Hornets and Magic. After seeing both Payton and Tyler Ennis live, I like both, but I think Payton has more long-term potential because of his quickness and defensive abilities. The Kings especially seem like a good fit -- especially if Smart is off the board. Payton provides size, defense, a pure point guard mentality, high character -- all the things they are looking for in a point.
Re-thinking Warren
I was also really impressed with North Carolina State's T.J. Warren. I've been a skeptic in the past. While he's clearly one of the three most gifted scorers in the draft (Jabari Parkerand Doug McDermott are the other two), Warren's unorthodox game and lack of a legit 3-point shot have raised question marks for me.
Warren's measurement and athletic testing numbers in Chicago made me give him another look. He measured bigger and more athletic than I expected him to. His drill work was just so-so Thursday. He's not a great shooter from beyond the arc, and he's not the quickest or most explosive in drills.
But when the ball rolled out for 3-on-3 action? Holy ... Warren is so aggressive as a scorer and can get his shot off in multiple ways. You can't sit on him defensively. He just has too many moves, floaters, hesitations and ways to get that ball in the bucket. That explains why he shot nearly 76 percent at the rim this year and 44 percent in his 2-point jumpers. The guy can score.
His competitiveness in those game situations just shines through. He's hungry and he wants to dunk on everyone. I think the over obsession with athletic metrics and skills can hinder the obvious -- if you want a bucket-getter, Warren is as good as anyone in the draft. If he ever gets a better 3-point shot, he could easily be a 20-points-per-game scorer in the NBA. Given that scoring comes at a premium, I think we also have him too low -- maybe considerably too low on our draft board. Teams as high as Phoenix at No. 14, Atlanta at No. 15, the Bulls at No. 16 and the Celtics at No. 17 will be giving him long looks.
Age an asset for talented Young
Warren's primary competition at the small forward position will come from Young. We got to see Young in only his fourth day of workouts, which meant that he didn't have the same number of reps under him that the other players in the workout did. That didn't stop him from making a positive impression.
Young's size for position is impressive. With that 7-foot wingspan, he's a physically imposing wing who, at just 18 years old, could still be growing. Young got a lot of love from scouts prior to the season for his shooting in Kentucky practices and early on he showed why. He was hitting from everywhere on the floor and often rattling off seven or eight 3-pointers in a row. Young was streakier in games this year for Kentucky, but most scouts attribute that to shot selection. As Kentucky's only real 3-point threat, he launched up some questionable shots on occasion. When he gets good looks, he rarely misses.
Young may be one of the real sleepers in the draft. I've always been a big fan and everything I saw here confirmed that he has the potential to be a very good NBA player and should be mentioned in the same breath with all the other elite shooting wings.
I had more scouts call me about him than any other player in the workout. The refrain is always the same, there's more there than we saw at Kentucky -- take him off a team loaded with scorers and he would've had an even more dominant freshman season. Some teams in the lottery including the Hornets, Sixers, Nuggets, Magic, Timberwolves and Suns are all giving him serious looks in the lottery.
Wilcox looks like a first-rounder
Wilcox was also impressive shooting the ball. He was one of the best shooters at the NBA draft combine and showed why again in both drills and in the 3-on-3 games. He has a quick release, deep range and you can't leave him open.
He also was the only one on the floor who could (sort of) slow down Elfrid Payton. Wilcox moves well without the ball, is a very good athlete and just plays smart basketball.
Wilcox is getting a lot of looks in the 20s, and given his clear NBA skill and ability to play right away, I'd be shocked if he slid past 30.
Robinson III's stock rebounding
Robinson III was one of the four or five players who helped themselves the most at the draft combine. His elite athletic abilities, a slimmed-down physique and some very solid shooting numbers in the drills all gave him a boost in the eyes of scouts. Not to mention the fact that according to multiple GMs he absolutely nailed the interviews.
So what does Robinson have to do now? Show that he can apply those skills to actual basketball. At times he was passive this season and didn't assert himself the way his talent suggests he could. That's what caused him to slide on draft boards. MacLean has been working with Robinson on getting him more aggressive and it showed during the 3-on-3 workouts where he was much more active on both ends of the floor.
Robinson also had a strong workout in Chicago on Monday and now it appears that a number of teams in the mid-to-late first round are coming after him. He was probably ranked too high at the start of the season when we had him in the late lottery, but he's probably underranked now. If he can keep up that aggressiveness in workouts, he should land somewhere in the 20s.
Bader's bona fide deep game
Bader was the NCAA's all-time leader in 3-point shots made. So guess what he did well in the workout? He can really shoot the lights out. His lack of elite size or athleticism for his position means he's not a lock to get drafted, but watching him in the 3-on-3 action, I felt he held his own on the floor with five other first-round picks. I think if more scouts see him in this setting, he's got a good chance of getting picked up by someone in the second round.
Oliver also shot the ball well in drills (he shot nearly 40 percent from 3-point range this season), but unfortunately he wasn't able to play in the 3-on-3 part of the workout to show off his defensive abilities.
954UAlreadyknow
All Star
TJ Warren shot 76% at the rim?
Top college head coach candidates
Standouts at smaller schools, rising assistants and other top choices
Mike Krzyzewski, Roy Williams, Rick Pitino and Jim Boeheim are in the twilight of their careers. They will be replaced by guys such as Billy Donovan, John Calipari and Bill Self as the elder statesmen in the college basketball coaching ranks.
But who are some of the rising young head coaches in the game -- and who are some of the top assistants who are primed to be taking over their own programs in the not-so-distant future? Who are the former head coaches still on the sidelines who are deserving of another shot at a lead role?
We got together and compiled our list of coaches who should be on an athletic director's wish list.
Head coaches (must be under 40 years of age)
1. Mike White, Louisiana Tech Bulldogs -- He has turned down a couple of high-major jobs this past offseason, but he'll almost certainly remain a hot name because of his lineage and also the fact he has a strong team returning at Louisiana Tech. The 37-year-old is the son of Duke athletic director Kevin White, but take that out of the equation and he's still a rising star in the business.
2. Steve Masiello, Manhattan Jaspers -- Yes, we know all about the résumé gaffe and how it cost him an opportunity to take over at South Florida, but Masiello will get his degree soon -- and the 36-year-old has proved he can recruit and coach. In three seasons, he has won 60 games and is coming off an NCAA tourney appearance and a near-upset over his mentor, Rick Pitino.
3. Steve Prohm, Murray State Racers -- The 39-year-old had opportunities to go elsewhere after his rookie season with the Racers and decided to be loyal and stick around. Murray State is 74-23 since Prohm took over for Billy Kennedy.
4. Will Wade, Chattanooga Mocs -- He helped get it started for Tommy Amaker at Harvard, and then went to VCU with Shaka Smart and enjoyed success with the Rams. Wade, 31, won 18 games this past season, his first as the head coach at Chattanooga.
5. LeVelle Moton, North Carolina Central Eagles -- He was in the mix for several jobs, and should get a higher-profile one before long. He led NCCU to a 28-6 campaign with a 15-1 mark in the MEAC last season and has an 82-45 mark in four seasons running the Eagles program.
6. Pat Kelsey, Winthrop Eagles -- He might have been the next guy in line if Danny Manning didn't take Wake Forest. Kelsey was on Skip Prosser's staff when the program had its successful run and the 38-year-old Kelsey had a 34-30 mark in two seasons after inheriting a rebuilding situation at Winthrop.
7. Bryce Drew, Valparaiso Crusaders -- He has coaching bloodlines with his father, Homer, the former coach at Valpo and his brother, Scott, who is rebuilding Baylor virtually from scratch. Bryce is 30 games over the .500 mark in his three seasons at the helm and has gone to the postseason in all three years. He took the Crusaders to the NCAA tourney two seasons ago.
8. Brandon Miller, Butler Bulldogs -- Don't judge Miller on this past season. He's got the unenviable task of having to follow Brad Stevens at Butler, but he'll be fine in time. Miller is a former Ohio State assistant who lost arguably his best player, Roosevelt Jones, just prior to the start of the Bulldogs' season and didn't have a quality point guard all year.
9. Brian Wardle, Green Bay Phoenix -- The 34-year-old played and was an assistant at Marquette, and has racked up a 71-55 mark in four seasons as the head coach at Green Bay. He might have taken the Phoenix to the Big Dance this past season if not for an injury to star guard Keifer Sykes in the Horizon League tourney.
10. Andy Toole, Robert Morris Colonials -- The 33-year-old played at Penn and was elevated to head coach at RMU after Mike Rice left for Rutgers. He has won 90 games in four seasons and has taken the program to the postseason in three of his four years.
Outside the box
Derrick Clark, Metro State Roadrunners -- He led the Roadrunners to the NCAA Division II title game a year ago and returned to the Final Four this past season. Clark, a former Air Force and Colorado assistant, knocked off three Division I teams this past season. We know he's not under 40 years of age, but we're putting him on anyway because someone needs to hire this guy in the Division I ranks.
Assistants
1. Mike Hopkins, Syracuse Orange -- He's the coach-in-waiting when Boeheim retires, but Hopkins has made it no secret that he'd leave for the right opportunity. He's high-energy, is a proven recruiter and could bring the effective Cuse zone defense with him wherever he lands.
2. Russell Springmann, Texas Longhorns -- This is the guy who recruited Kevin Durant -- among others -- to Austin. He turned down Mississippi State a couple of years ago and should remain a hot name with the recent Longhorns resurgence.
3. Greg Gard, Wisconsin Badgers -- He has been on Bo Ryan's staff since the UW-Platteville days and deserves a head job. The Badgers have gone to the NCAA tournament all 13 years he has been in Madison, and they went to the Final Four last season.
4. Tommy Lloyd, Gonzaga Bulldogs -- If Mark Few leaves Spokane (which is unlikely to happen), Lloyd is the guy to take over the Zags. He's young and has been critical to the program's success both on the court and also in recruiting circles, where he has tremendous overseas connections.
5. Matt McCall, Florida Gators -- One of the top young up-and-coming assistants in the country. McCall was the director of basketball operations for the back-to-back national titles in 2006 and 2007, left to become an assistant at Florida Atlantic for three seasons before being brought back by Billy Donovan as an assistant in 2011.
6. Jason Williford, Virginia Cavaliers -- He doesn't get nearly enough attention, but much of it is because he's like his boss, Tony Bennett, and doesn't self-promote. Williford played at Virginia, was an assistant at American and Boston University before joining Bennett's staff five years ago. The Cavs are coming off a season where they won the ACC regular-season and tourney titles.
7. LaVall Jordan, Michigan Wolverines -- He has been on John Beilein's staff for the past four seasons in Ann Arbor while the Wolverines have enjoyed one heck of a run. Jordan has worked with the guards and helped develop players such as Trey Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr., Nik Stauskas and Darius Morris. Jordan played at Butler and was an assistant at Iowa before arriving at Michigan.
8. Damon Stoudamire, Arizona Wildcats -- The former Wildcats star spent more than a decade in the NBA and also has been on an NBA coaching staff. He has spent the past few years in the college ranks with Josh Pastner in Memphis and now with Sean Miller at his alma mater.
9. Dwayne Stephens, Michigan State Spartans -- He has been on Tom Izzo's staff for more than a decade and the former Spartans player is versatile as a coach and a recruiter.
10. Justin Hutson, San Diego State Aztecs -- He helped Steve Fisher build the Aztecs and then left for a short stint at UNLV before returning to San Diego State. He's one of the elite recruiters on the West Coast, and should be in the mix for any head jobs out that way.
11. T.J. Otzelberger, Washington Huskies -- He was in the mix for multiple openings this past offseason. The 36-year-old recruited Georges Niang and Melvin Ejim to Iowa State and left Ames to join Lorenzo Romar's staff at Washington a year ago.
12. Chris Caputo, Miami (FL) Hurricanes -- He was on the George Mason staff that reached an improbable Final Four and has been a key component since Jim Larranaga & Co. took over in Miami.
13. Hubert Davis, North Carolina Tar Heels -- Davis starred at North Carolina and played in the NBA for a dozen years. He then spent a few years at ESPN before taking a job at his alma mater on Roy Williams' staff.
14. Martin Inglesby, Notre Dame Fighting Irish -- The former Irish point guard has been on Mike Brey's staff for 11 seasons. He works with the guards and is also a terrific recruiter.
15. Greg Paulus, Ohio State Buckeyes -- The former Duke point guard and Syracuse quarterback spent a couple of years on Thad Matta's staff as the video coordinator before being elevated to an assistant coach last season. Look for the 27-year-old to get a head-coaching shot, likely before he turns 30.
Outside the box
Ronald Nored, Boston Celtics -- The former Butler point guard spent a year coaching high school after graduating, and had a brief stint at South Alabama before joining Brad Stevens' staff with the Celtics, where he spent most of his time with the D-League affiliate in Maine.
Been there, done that
1. Jeff Capel, Duke Blue Devils -- He was 79-41 in four seasons at VCU before taking Oklahoma to an Elite Eight and another NCAA tournament appearance in his five seasons in Norman. Capel, who has been on Mike Krzyzewski's staff for the past few years, deserves another shot and should get it soon.
2. Bobby Lutz, NC State Wolfpack -- People forget that Lutz had a heck of a run as the head coach of Charlotte. He took the 49ers to the NCAA tourney in four of his first six seasons and won 218 games in 12 years at the helm.
3. Dane Fife, Michigan State Spartans -- He was a head coach at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne for six seasons before deciding to join Izzo's staff at Michigan State. He should get another chance because of his strong Midwest ties.
4. Norm Roberts, Kansas Jayhawks -- He picked up the pieces left by Mike Jarvis, and had the program headed in the right direction when he was fired in 2010 after six seasons at St. John's. Roberts is back on Self's staff, but deserves another crack at a head gig.
5. Al Skinner, Bryant Bulldogs -- He doesn't exactly have the reputation of a grinder, but it's difficult to argue with the results. Skinner led Boston College to seven NCAA tournament appearances in a span of nine seasons, but was fired in 2010 after two losing campaigns in a three-year period.
6. John Pelphrey, Florida Gators -- He was the head coach at South Alabama for five years before getting the Arkansas job, where he took the Razorbacks to the NCAA tourney in his first season. Pelphrey had a sub-.500 mark in his final three years in Fayetteville, was let go and soon rejoined Donovan on the staff at Florida.
7. Glen Miller, Connecticut Huskies -- Miller had two Ivy League stints as a head coach -- from 1999 to 2006 with Brown and then from 2006 to 2010 at Penn. He was 93-99 at Brown -- which was impressive -- but struggled his final two-plus seasons at Penn after an NCAA tourney appearance in his first season.
8. Karl Hobbs, Connecticut Huskies -- Hobbs was the longtime coach at George Washington and had the program rolling in the mid 2000s. GW won 27 games and ran the table in the A-10 in 2006, but the Colonials struggled in his last few seasons and he was fired. Hobbs jumped back on Jim Calhoun's staff a few years ago and remained on with Kevin Ollie.
Outside the box
Brad Greenberg, Israel -- He's a former NBA general manager who took Radford to the NCAA tourney in 2009, but was hit with a show-cause by the NCAA and wound up being forced to resign. Greenberg has been coaching in Israel the past few years and led Maccabi Haifa to its first Israeli championship. He spent this past season coaching Hapoel Jerusalem.
Ben Howland -- He couldn't get Marquette or Missouri, and withdrew from Oregon State. Howland is a tremendous basketball coach and his résumé speaks for itself, leading UCLA to three straight Final Four berths. However, he's got some baggage and that has hurt him this past offseason.
1. Jeff Capel, Duke Blue Devils -- He was 79-41 in four seasons at VCU before taking Oklahoma to an Elite Eight and another NCAA tournament appearance in his five seasons in Norman. Capel, who has been on Mike Krzyzewski's staff for the past few years, deserves another shot and should get it soon.
2. Bobby Lutz, NC State Wolfpack -- People forget that Lutz had a heck of a run as the head coach of Charlotte. He took the 49ers to the NCAA tourney in four of his first six seasons and won 218 games in 12 years at the helm.
3. Dane Fife, Michigan State Spartans -- He was a head coach at Indiana University-Purdue University Fort Wayne for six seasons before deciding to join Izzo's staff at Michigan State. He should get another chance because of his strong Midwest ties.
4. Norm Roberts, Kansas Jayhawks -- He picked up the pieces left by Mike Jarvis, and had the program headed in the right direction when he was fired in 2010 after six seasons at St. John's. Roberts is back on Self's staff, but deserves another crack at a head gig.
5. Al Skinner, Bryant Bulldogs -- He doesn't exactly have the reputation of a grinder, but it's difficult to argue with the results. Skinner led Boston College to seven NCAA tournament appearances in a span of nine seasons, but was fired in 2010 after two losing campaigns in a three-year period.
6. John Pelphrey, Florida Gators -- He was the head coach at South Alabama for five years before getting the Arkansas job, where he took the Razorbacks to the NCAA tourney in his first season. Pelphrey had a sub-.500 mark in his final three years in Fayetteville, was let go and soon rejoined Donovan on the staff at Florida.
7. Glen Miller, Connecticut Huskies -- Miller had two Ivy League stints as a head coach -- from 1999 to 2006 with Brown and then from 2006 to 2010 at Penn. He was 93-99 at Brown -- which was impressive -- but struggled his final two-plus seasons at Penn after an NCAA tourney appearance in his first season.
8. Karl Hobbs, Connecticut Huskies -- Hobbs was the longtime coach at George Washington and had the program rolling in the mid 2000s. GW won 27 games and ran the table in the A-10 in 2006, but the Colonials struggled in his last few seasons and he was fired. Hobbs jumped back on Jim Calhoun's staff a few years ago and remained on with Kevin Ollie.
Outside the box
Brad Greenberg, Israel -- He's a former NBA general manager who took Radford to the NCAA tourney in 2009, but was hit with a show-cause by the NCAA and wound up being forced to resign. Greenberg has been coaching in Israel the past few years and led Maccabi Haifa to its first Israeli championship. He spent this past season coaching Hapoel Jerusalem.
Ben Howland -- He couldn't get Marquette or Missouri, and withdrew from Oregon State. Howland is a tremendous basketball coach and his résumé speaks for itself, leading UCLA to three straight Final Four berths. However, he's got some baggage and that has hurt him this past offseason.
Starting tomorrow I'll be out of town for the week for a conference. I won't get back home until Saturday.
I'll post any Insiders then if no one else has.
I'll post any Insiders then if no one else has.
