Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)
- Thread starter the cool
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i quoted the wrong story on the first one. They have one where there scouting the series i thought i had posted that one. But i will check out page 59 (i'm on page 18 lol) 50 post per page
Playoffs: Scouting Nets-Heat
If back in November we had told you that the Miami Heat and Brooklyn Nets would meet in a post-first-round playoff series, chances are you would not have been surprised. The Nets were something of a wild card entering the season, but with a projected starting lineup made up of players with a combined 34 All-Star Game appearances, there was no denying the collective Brooklyn pedigree. However, if on New Year's Eve we had told you this matchup would eventually take place, you might have been shocked: The Nets were 10-21, and starting center Brook Lopez was done for the season. From that point forward, coach Jason Kidd rallied his guys to a 34-17 finish, four games better than the post-Jan. 1 record of the defending champion Heat.
Late regular-season records aside, the Heat cruised to a four-game sweep of Charlotte in the first round, while the Nets escaped their matchup with Toronto by the tips of Paul Pierce's fingers. Barely two days later, the Nets must reload to take on the three-time Eastern Conference champs, who have been resting and healing since April 28. Perhaps buoying the Nets' spirits is their 4-0 mark against Miami during the regular season, though with three one-point wins and a double-overtime victory, it's not like Brooklyn dominated the champs. In fact, LeBron James pretty much laughed off the possibility of a serious challenge by the Nets. The knock against the Nets' roster-building strategy was that it locked them into second-tier status, with no avenue to getting past Miami. Here is Brooklyn's chance to prove that idea wrong in a series that is ripe with intrigue and storylines.
Brooklyn Nets at Miami Heat
Eastern Conference playoffs Semifinal preview
QUESTION 1: Do the Nets have the weapons to hurt the Heat on the inside?
Elhassan: Sure, if Lopez were healthy. The Heat's Achilles' heel has been bigs in the post and giving up second-chance opportunities; the Nets were one of the worst offensive rebounding teams in the league, and the only post-up big of note is Andray Blatche. Of course, Brooklyn has been successful this season by going to jumbo small-ball lineups, posting Joe Johnson, Shaun Livingston and Paul Pierce against smaller defenders, but unfortunately this strategy plays to Miami's strengths of guarding perimeter players. James, Dwyane Wade and Shane Battier are all big/sturdy for their positions and won't be posted easily. Brooklyn's best bet will be getting production from Mason Plumlee on the offensive glass, keeping possessions alive.
Doolittle: Brooklyn has gotten a lot of mileage out of the collective ability of its wings to post up, but the Heat are less susceptible to this than the Raptors were. Whether it's James, Wade, James Jones or Battier on the wing, Miami has the size and strength to combat that strategy. The exception to this is Ray Allen, who wasn't much of a factor for Miami in the first round anyway. He may be particularly marginalized in this matchup. The Heat ranked 26th in post defense, per Synergy Sports Technologies, but the hole is, as Elhassan pointed out, against big post-up players. James (82nd percentile), Wade (76th) and even Allen (74th) have solid numbers against that play type. Battier (21st percentile) does not, but he hasn't been playing. Yes, Miami is vulnerable on the inside, but it will be up to Kevin Garnett and Blatche to exploit that shortcoming. It could happen, especially when the second units are on the floor, but if overused, it would mean the Nets would be moving away from some of what made them so good late in the season.
QUESTION 2: What did Brooklyn do during its season sweep of Miami that can be translated to the postseason?
Elhassan: What did Houston Rockets general manager Daryl Morey call his team's losses to Portland in the first round? Coin flips? The same applies here; four wins came in three one-point games and a double-overtime victory. Beyond that, the Heat were not able to capitalize from beyond the arc; in three of the four losses, they connected on less than 33 percent of their 3-point attempts, shooting a combined 22-for-74 (29.7 percent) in those games. Without the threat of retribution from downtown, the Nets are able to collapse on Miami's Big Three in the paint and make life a lot more difficult for them. The Nets made a conscious decision to dare the Heat to beat them with the supporting cast, so the burden is on Allen, Battier, Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole to make them pay.
Doolittle: This is where we have to come back to the narrow margins of victory. Before we declare the Nets a matchup problem for the Heat, let's again remind ourselves that in the four wins, they outscored the Heat in regular play by a total of three points, and Wade missed two of those games. Miami's Big Three all shot lights-out against the Nets, but only three teams held Miami to a lower overall offensive rating. James, Wade and Bosh combined for a .638 true shooting percentage, while everyone else clocked in at .497. Brooklyn held the Heat's role players down, but with Wade available, the impact of the role players is diminished. The Brooklyn lineups that were most successful against the Heat were some of the small-ball groups that worked so well late in the season. That would seem to play into Miami's hands, but in the end the Nets probably just need to do what they do best.
QUESTION 3: Of the many matchups between All-Stars and future Hall of Famers, which ones will decide the series?
Elhassan: I'm going for the obvious matchups on the wings. The Nets will have a full complement of options to throw at James. In fact, you could argue that offseason pickup Andrei Kirilenko was brought in specifically for this reason. Wade's availability after a season of "schedule management" will be key for Miami, not only as an offensive threat to inflict foul trouble on Brooklyn's wings, but also as another able-bodied defender to throw against Pierce and Johnson. Even though I expect Miami to hold its own versus Nets wing post-ups, the Heat still have to go out and do it. Further down the line, Allen and Marcus Thornton will trade blows as big-time shot-makers, while Alan Anderson and Battier will draw defensive assignments to buy breathing time for their heralded teammates. This series will be won and lost at the 2 and 3 positions.
Doolittle: There will be a lot of focus on the old rivalry between James and Pierce, but the one position on the floor where the Nets have a shot at a big-time advantage is at point guard. Johnson might have led the Nets in the first round, but Deron Williams' 6.4 WARP was the best on the team, and he's at an age where he should be leading Brooklyn at this time of the year. He missed one of the regular-season games against Miami, and shot just 33 percent in the games he did play. In 18 games in which Williams had a game score of 15.8 or better, Brooklyn went 14-4. When he had a score lower than 6.7, the Nets went 4-11. The Nets need Williams to dominate his matchup with Mario Chalmers.
Predictions
Elhassan: Heat in 6. I wish I had the chutzpah to pick Miami in 5, but I have to give some credit to a veteran Nets team that, if it can keep the game close, can steal a win or two in a tight situation. I just don't think there will be that many tight situations to steal wins.
Don't be surprised if: Deron Williams continues to be Brooklyn's Mr. Unreliable. He struggled mightily in three meetings with Miami, missing two-thirds of his shots and shooting 3-of-11 from downtown.
Doolittle: Heat in 4. In a vacuum, Brooklyn has the talent to compete, but I feel like the effort the Nets needed to put forth to eliminate the Raptors will bite them against a rested Heat team. The Nets could be down 2-0 before they even get into the series, and no team capitalizes on momentum like Miami.
Don't be surprised if: Turnovers turn out to be the bellwether statistic of the series. Stylistically, these teams are very similar, but Miami's weak point is turnover rate. If the Nets can care for the ball while forcing Miami miscues, we might have a series.
Log5 probabilities: 88 percent chance Heat win this series.
Elhassan: Heat in 6. I wish I had the chutzpah to pick Miami in 5, but I have to give some credit to a veteran Nets team that, if it can keep the game close, can steal a win or two in a tight situation. I just don't think there will be that many tight situations to steal wins.
Don't be surprised if: Deron Williams continues to be Brooklyn's Mr. Unreliable. He struggled mightily in three meetings with Miami, missing two-thirds of his shots and shooting 3-of-11 from downtown.
Doolittle: Heat in 4. In a vacuum, Brooklyn has the talent to compete, but I feel like the effort the Nets needed to put forth to eliminate the Raptors will bite them against a rested Heat team. The Nets could be down 2-0 before they even get into the series, and no team capitalizes on momentum like Miami.
Don't be surprised if: Turnovers turn out to be the bellwether statistic of the series. Stylistically, these teams are very similar, but Miami's weak point is turnover rate. If the Nets can care for the ball while forcing Miami miscues, we might have a series.
Log5 probabilities: 88 percent chance Heat win this series.
STAN JONES
Fire John Harbaugh
Winners, questions and Cleveland
It didn't take long for this NFL draft to get interesting. The Jacksonville Jaguars did a good job of concealing their affection for Blake Bortles, and shook things up early. The Cleveland Browns were active, adding picks that will help, but perhaps not adding the player early many of their fans wanted them to take. The Buffalo Bills made a huge move -- and gave up a significant amount -- to slide up five picks and get Sammy Watkins, a wide receiver they clearly believe can help them become a playoff team next season.
And then there was Johnny Football ...
Let's take a look.
Liking it
St. Louis Rams
The picks: OT Greg Robinson at No. 2, DT Aaron Donald at No. 13
Summary: I had wide receiver as a need for the Rams, but it's also the deepest position in the draft, and they added two potential Pro Bowl players with their two picks. Robinson needs work as a pass protector, because he's far more dominating as a run-blocker and, as colleague Jon Gruden noted, can grab too often, but he's a freak athlete with a sharp learning curve. He can be very good, and helps Sam Bradford potentially as much as a very good wide receiver. Donald helps make that D-line scary. I mean, think about how dominating Robert Quinn was last year, then factor in Chris Long, and the emerging Michael Brockers. Yikes. I think the secondary could have used a little help, but it actually gets help in the form of more pressure. Donald is bordering on a steal at No. 13.
Atlanta Falcons
The pick: OT Jake Matthews, No. 6
Summary: Nothing sexy about this pick, all it does is immediately help an offensive line that not only desperately needed a right tackle, but could use an eventual solution on the left side. And not only can Matthews play both, he can play them both well. Matt Ryan got pummeled last year, and he's the franchise. Atlanta stayed put and made a move to not only improve their team, but improve their best player.
Green Bay Packers
The pick: S Ha Ha Clinton-Dix at No. 21
Summary: Clinton-Dix fills a huge need for this team, and I consider him a great value at this slot. I don't even know what else to say about it, except for the fact that I thought Dallas could go with Clinton-Dix, and he also could have been in play for the Jets. So to have your No. 1 need filled by what I consider the safety they had rated as the best guy to fill that need makes for a pretty good night.
More: I really like the Vikings getting Teddy Bridgewater at the end of Round 1, I just think Anthony Barr was a reach at No. 9. Trading down, and adding an extra pick, can allow you to justify reaching a little. That said, Mike Zimmer has a new pass-rushing piece to work with. ... The Texans got the best player in the draft. That's a good night. ... The Raiders got one of the top players in the draft, Khalil Mack, at No. 5. Also a good night. ... I really like Cincy getting Darqueze Dennard where they did. I thought he'd be off the board at that point. The Bears and Chargers also hit big needs at cornerback with Kyle Fuller and Jason Verrett. ... I'm buying fantasy stock in Brandin Cooks.
Questioning it
Carolina Panthers
The pick: WR Kelvin Benjamin at No. 28
Summary: The Panthers need to find help for Cam Newton, and they got a big pass-catcher in Benjamin, who measures at a full 6-foot-5 and 240 pounds. But he comes with question marks, as he has shown inconsistent hands and really isn't a speed threat. I wonder if a Marqise Lee is a better immediate help. I think my pal Todd McShay might argue that Cody Latimer also could be a better value at that point. Not a big question, really, but a question.
New England Patriots
The picks: DT Dominique Easley at No. 29
Summary: Easley has flashed tremendous ability, and I think New England can ease him into the rotation and limit his snaps to make sure they maximize his value. But we're talking about a significant injury history here, with two ACL repairs before he has played a snap of NFL football. Yes, I can admit it reflexively can feel odd to question the Patriots, who clearly did their homework here. But I just hope Easley stays healthy. I'll say this: If he's 100 percent coming down the stretch next season, that could be a big help.
Jacksonville Jaguars
The pick: QB Blake Bortles at No. 3
Summary: I have few gripes with how the Jags have rebuilt over the past two years under a new regime. I think they've consistently added quality. My question for this pick is whether they drafted a QB they feel can make the team better in 2014. In my perfect scenario, Bortles gets a full year to wait his turn, so in terms of actually making this team better for the coming season, I liked an option such as Sammy Watkins or Khalil Mack here. Clearly the Jags felt they couldn't move down and still get Bortles later on -- and they could be right -- but they placed a big bet, and I think they need to show caution.
More: I realize Philly moved down and added some value before they drafted him, but I think Marcus Smith is a reach. That said, they didn't have glaring needs and went with a player they think can help. ... I adore Watkins as a prospect -- he's my No. 2 player in the draft -- but Buffalo sure gave up a lot. Love the player, but that's a major cost. They really need to take a step forward this season and hope that first-rounder isn't too high in 2015. ... I didn't mind the Dee Ford pick to Kansas City as much as I was a little surprised they weren't able to move down. What can't be argued is that when they lost some pass rush because of injuries last season, the defense really suffered.
Cleveland's crazy night
The picks: CB Justin Gilbert at No. 8; QB Johnny Manziel at No. 22; added picks
Summary: Forget about the players they added for a second, and just think about the fact that they again added a major draft haul to move down a handful of spots. During the season Cleveland traded Trent Richardson for a first-rounder, and now they've added a first-rounder for 2015, as well as a fourth-rounder. While doing so, they still managed to hit two big needs. And while they gave up the chance to draft Watkins, they did so in a year where they can get a pass-catcher to complement Josh Gordon and Jordan Cameron further down the board, perhaps early in Round 2, with some good ones available. I consider Gilbert a bit of a reach at No. 8 -- I actually expect him to struggle with his transition -- but he does hit a need, and teams feel like they can reach a little after adding that kind of a draft haul (look at Buffalo last year, in fact).
And yes, there's Manziel. Two things: First, he has a chance to succeed here. They have some weapons in place, and they can block for him -- and really, he doesn't have to start immediately. Second, remember that by drafting him where they did, Manziel actually becomes a pretty good value. Cleveland is a winner because of the total value added. It's just how they manage that value, and the considerable noise and expectations that come with Manziel, that will dictate how we view this draft four or five years from now.
25 best available players
Now that Day 1 of the NFL draft is in the books, we'll see some big names come off the board on Friday. That includes some intriguing possibilities at quarterback. Based on my final Big Board -- which ranks the top 100 NFL draft prospects -- here's a look at the top 25 players available heading into Round 2.
This is not a prediction of the draft order; it's merely how I rank the remaining prospects.
Top 10 remaining
1. QB Derek Carr, Fresno State
The No. 21 player on my final Big Board, he's a possibility for the Houston Texans at No. 33.
2. WR Marqise Lee, USC
Lee would have been a likely top-10 pick last year, but his uneven junior year caused him to fall. He should be off the board quickly on Day 2.
3. RB Carlos Hyde, Ohio State
The top running back on my board, Hyde has quick feet and the ability to make linebackers miss in the hole. He's great in short-yardage situations.
4. DE *Stephon Tuitt, Notre Dame
A terrific athlete for his size (6-foot-5, 304 pounds), Tuitt has great versatility.
5. OLB Kyle Van Noy, BYU
An instinctive player who plays faster than he was timed.
6. WR Jordan Matthews, Vanderbilt
A good route-runner, Matthews can hit another gear after the catch.
7. WR Bruce Ellington*, South Carolina
A reliable and competitive receiver, he's a burner. One of the fastest risers during the draft process.
8. T Joel Bitonio, Nevada
A mauler in the run game, Bitonio provides versatility.
9. T Morgan Moses, Virginia
Moses has great length for the position and creates a long road around him, but he's only intermittently dominant.
10. *Demarcus Lawrence, DE, Boise State
One of the best pure pass-rushers in this draft but a bit of a tweener.
Next 15
11. **Davante Adams, WR, Fresno State
12. Chris Borland, LB, Wisconsin
13. *Allen Robinson, WR, Penn State
14. *Kony Ealy, DE, Missouri
15. Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
16. *Jarvis Landry, WR, LSU
17. Jeremiah Attaochu, OLB, Georgia Tech
18. Cody Latimer, WR, Indiana
19. *Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TE, Washington
20. *Louis Nix III, DT, Notre Dame
21. *Xavier Su'a-Filo, G, UCLA
22. Weston Richburg, C, Colorado State
23. *Marcus Martin, C, USC
24. Lamarcus Joyner, CB, Florida State
25. *Timmy Jernigan, DT, Florida State
*Underclassman
**Redshirt sophomore
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STAN JONES
Fire John Harbaugh
thanks
Second-round favorite win odds
A week into the NBA's conference semifinals, it's already clear the second round won't be able to match the drama the first round of this season's playoffs provided.
Depending on the results of Monday's Game 4 between the Brooklyn Nets and Miami Heat, it's possible that the team with home-court advantage will lead three of the four series through four games, leaving the Los Angeles Clippers and Oklahoma City Thunder (tied 2-2 after an improbable comeback by the Clippers in Sunday's Game 4) as our best hope of a seven-game series.
Let's take a look at where each series stands, using past NBA best-of-seven results from WhoWins.com to estimate the favorite's chance of winning.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Portland Trail Blazers
Spurs' chances of winning: 100 percent
No team in NBA history has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit. In fact, across the three major American pro sports that use the best-of-seven format, just five teams have done so (most recently this season's L.A. Kings) in 319 attempts (1.6 percent). Eventually, an NBA team is bound to pull off the unprecedented comeback. At Sunday's light workout, the Blazers were willing to embrace the mentality that they should be the ones to do it.
"It's not easy by any stretch of the imagination," guard Wesley Matthews said. "We know the stats, we know it's never happened before, but sports are unpredictable. As soon as the ball tips up, there's a 50-50 chance of winning that game."
If and when the 3-0 comeback happens, however, it will probably be achieved by a team that loses three closely fought games to start the series. That doesn't describe Portland, which has been outscored by an average of 18.7 points per game. According to WhoWins.com, the Spurs are the fourth team in NBA history to win the first three games of a playoff series by 15-plus points. Two of the other three swept; the 2000 Utah Jazz were able to win Game 4 (against the Blazers) before losing the series in five games.
Indiana Pacers vs. Washington Wizards
Pacers' chances of winning: 98.6 percent
Overall, the odds are heavily stacked against a team down 3-1 in a series. Such teams are 8-219 (.037) in NBA history, but that actually understates the magnitude of the task the Wizards face. Teams with home-court advantage down 3-1 are 6-74 (.081), as compared to 2-145 (.014) for lower seeds like Washington. The Wizards must win twice at Bankers Life Fieldhouse and hold serve at home -- something they were unable to do this weekend -- in order to advance.
Though Washington has lost two close games (Games 2 and 4), the Pacers' starting five appears to be getting stronger as this series goes on. In Game 4, Indiana was plus-16 in the 35 minutes its starters played together. After getting outscored by eight points in 12 minutes in Game 1, the starting five is a combined plus-45 in 87 minutes over the past three games.
Sunday's outcome was only close because the Pacers struggled so badly with their bench in the game. They were outscored by an incredible 18 points in Luis Scola's eight minutes of play, and 15 points in C.J. Watson's 11 minutes. Frank Vogel adjusted by tightening his rotation and riding his starters down the stretch, something he may be able to get away with since Indiana will get an extended rest if it can close out the series on Tuesday.
Miami Heat vs. Brooklyn Nets
Heat's chances of winning: 89.3 percent
Despite losing Saturday, the Heat still hold a comfortable edge in this series. A win Monday night in Brooklyn would effectively end the series, putting Miami in the same position as Indiana (up 3-1 heading home), while even if the Nets win they would still have to win either Game 5 or Game 7 on the road to pull off the huge upset. Brooklyn is unlikely to see a repeat of its 15-of-25 3-point shooting from Game 3, giving the Heat a better chance to steal a road win on Monday.
That said, Miami's position no longer looks nearly as enviable as it did a week ago. Suddenly, it appears possible -- even likely -- that both the Pacers and the Spurs will close out their series ahead of the Heat, mitigating some of the rest advantage they earned by sweeping the Charlotte Bobcats in the first round. Also, if both series play to form, Miami will have to go on the road in both the Eastern Conference finals and the NBA Finals, should the Heat get that far.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Los Angeles Clippers
Thunder's chances of winning: 77.7 percent
Based on past results, the closest of the four semifinal series still isn't that close -- though the Clippers have a far, far better chance of pulling off the upset than they would have had if not for their fourth-quarter comeback on Sunday, in which case they would have been in the same position as the Wizards.
Historically, a series tied 2-2 has overwhelmingly favored the team with home-court advantage. Why? The lower-seeded team has to steal a game on the road, and since home teams win Game 7 79.8 percent of the time, splitting the next two usually isn't enough. That makes Tuesday's Game 5 crucial for the Clippers.
The chances are better for a lower-seeded team that has outscored its opponent, as the Clippers have by two points over four games. However, that edge is almost entirely due to Game 1 (plus-17) and the fourth quarter of Game 4 (plus-14). In the other 11 quarters of the series, Oklahoma City has a 29-point edge. That makes it challenging to figure out where this series is headed next.
The Clippers had no answer for Kevin Durant until putting Chris Paul on the MVP and double-teaming him in their fourth-quarter comeback. Asking Paul to defend Durant for a full game isn't realistic, and the Thunder will probably be better prepared to deal with the Durant-Paul matchup come Game 5. One possible answer is avoiding it altogether in favor of attacking the Russell Westbrook-Darren Collison matchup that might actually be more favorable for Oklahoma City.
At the same time, Doc Rivers could still be better off going small because of the advantages it provides on offense. For all the hand-wringing about the Thunder's stagnant offense down the stretch on Sunday, they scored a respectable 24 points on 25 possessions in the fourth quarter, or a point per possession before Westbrook's desperation 3 at the buzzer. The problem was the Clippers' offense putting up 38 points on 63.6 percent shooting in the fourth. L.A.'s three-guard lineup was able to generate steals that led to layups at the other end and provided enough spacing for Blake Griffin to score out of pick-and-rolls.
OKC's improbable comeback
During a postseason full of memorable thrillers, the most important finish of all might have come Tuesday night in Oklahoma City. With their best-of-seven series tied at 2-2, the Thunder and the Los Angeles Clippers battled for the upper hand. Just when the Clippers appeared to have stolen a crucial road victory, a furious Oklahoma City comeback and a mistake-filled final minute changed the outcome.
Let's take a look at how that happened and what it means going forward.
How unlikely was the Thunder's comeback?
According to Inpredictable.com, Oklahoma City had a 0.5 percent chance of winning when down 13 points with 4:01 to play. (For what it's worth, ESPN Stats & Information had OKC at 1.1 percent chance of winning.) By Inpredictable's win probability model, this comeback was more than three times more improbable than the Clippers' rallying from down 16 with nine minutes left in Sunday's Game 4. The Clippers' win probability never dropped below 1.7 percent in that one.
Back-to-back comebacks with odds of more than 50-1 against, along with another similar comeback in this year's playoffs (the Portland Trail Blazers had a 1.3 percent chance of winning in the fourth quarter of Game 1 against the Houston Rockets before prevailing in overtime) suggests the win probability model might be a bit too liberal in the postseason, when teams are more likely to chase any chance of winning a game that's seemingly out of reach rather than conceding and resting their starters. Still, Game 5 surely ranks among the greatest comebacks in NBA playoff history.
How much did the comeback swing the series odds?
From the Clippers being heavily favored to the Thunder being overwhelmingly favored. According to WhoWins.com, in seven-game series before the NBA Finals (different because of the 2-3-2 format that the league is moving away from this year), teams with home-court advantage that take a 3-2 lead in the series go on to win 91.6 percent of the time (131-12).
When the lower-seeded team takes a 3-2 lead, it pulls the upset 75.6 percent of the time (62-20). So if we combine that with the in-game win probability, the Clippers had a 71.8 percent chance of winning the series at their highest point in the fourth quarter. That dropped all the way to 8.4 percent with the loss.
Because both teams have shown the ability to win on the other's home court, the true swing is probably not quite so great. And both improbable scenarios have played out this postseason: Both Oklahoma City and the Indiana Pacers came back after losing Game 5 at home, while the Toronto Raptors lost despite winning Game 5 at home. But historically Game 7 has been more difficult for the road team to steal than other games in the series, with home teams winning 79.8 percent of the time. Now the Clippers will have to beat those odds -- if they can even force a Game 7 by winning at home Thursday.
Did the Clippers' 'prevent offense' prevent them from winning?
After going up 13 points on a Jamal Crawford 3-pointer, the Clippers scored on just one of their final nine possessions, raising the question of whether they tried to run out the clock too early and sacrificed offense in the process. Even Clippers head coach Doc Rivers lamented his team trying to "milk the clock."
That most clearly seemed to be the case on the Clippers' next two possessions after Crawford's 3, when they shot contested jumpers (an even longer Crawford 3 and a Chris Paul pull-up) in the waning seconds of the shot clock.
However, Paul's miss with 2:39 remaining -- a step-back jumper against Kendrick Perkins similar to the one he hit in the final minute for L.A.'s only field goal over the last 4:13 of the game -- came with 12 seconds on the shot clock, and DeAndre Jordan was called for a moving screen when he set a pick for Paul with 15 seconds on the shot clock. Those empty possessions had little to do with trying to run the clock.
The bigger problem for the Clippers were long misses by Crawford compounded with poor transition defense. Oklahoma City scored quickly after both of Crawford's missed 3-pointers, getting a Durant pull-up 3 and a Reggie Jackson layup. The Clippers needed to take more time off the clock at the defensive end by forcing the Thunder into half-court sets. That might have meant eight possessions over the final 4:13 instead of nine, reducing Oklahoma City's margin for error to make up the deficit.
Why couldn't the referees review whether Jackson was fouled when the ball went out of bounds with 11 seconds remaining?
The key video review in the closing seconds was the most recent and most prominent example of the difficulty with reviewing only possessions in the last two minutes. Video appeared to show the ball going off Jackson, not defender Matt Barnes -- but also that Barnes had freed the ball by slapping Jackson's wrist and fouling him. Referees currently aren't allowed to use replay to determine whether a foul was committed, and Rivers believed they tried to create a just result by giving the ball to the Thunder.
To further confuse matters, the play in question might have been subject to Rule No. 8 in the officials' rulebook (which I can't recall ever being applied before). Here's the abbreviated version:
Out-of-bounds and throw in: "... If a player has his hand in contact with the ball and an opponent hits the hand causing the ball to go out-of-bounds, the team whose player had his hand on the ball will retain possession."
At no point Tuesday night did the officiating crew make reference to this when they rendered their verdict. In fact, crew chief Tony Brothers told a pool reporter that the officials were only able to review overhead camera angles that didn't offer conclusive evidence. But if Barnes' hand indeed made contact with Jackson's, then it appears as if they basically got it right by getting it wrong.
"Everybody knows it was our ball," Rivers said. "I think the bottom line is they thought it was a foul and they made up for it."
The strongest case against allowing officials to review everything is that replay already takes long enough, and while that's hard to argue, I'm not certain that incorporating fouls would necessarily make it longer. Sometimes, as in this case, the foul is actually more obvious than who touched the ball last. The NBA is also surely leery of the slippery slope of reviewing judgment calls. Currently, the only fouls that can be reviewed are block/charge calls.
Perhaps a rule change wouldn't have mattered to this play. Still, when referees are already looking at a play, they should be allowed to look at everything.
As it turned out, of the three possible outcomes of the play -- Clippers ball, Thunder ball or two free throws for Jackson -- the actual one was the worst for the Clippers. Instead of Jackson going to the line to potentially tie the score, Russell Westbrook ended up with three shots after he was fouled in the act of shooting a 3. He made all of them, giving Oklahoma City the decisive lead.