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Analyzing McShay mock: Vikings
In his latest mock draft, ESPN NFL draft expert Todd McShay made his picks as though he were the general manager for every team in the league. In other words, he's picking the player he thinks the team should take, not necessarily whom they will take.
That's an important distinction to make, because in this particular case, it illustrates how badly the Vikings need to address their quarterback position for the future.
McShay has the Vikings taking Central Florida quarterback Blake Bortles with the eighth overall pick, as ESPN NFL draft expert Mel Kiper Jr. did in his most recent mock draft. The difference here, though, is that no other team before the Vikings should draft a quarterback before they should take another available player, McShay says. In fact, he doesn't have a second quarterback coming off the draft board until the 20th overall pick, when the Arizona Cardinals draft Louisville's Teddy Bridgewater. Johnny Manziel? He isn't drafted until No. 26 overall, when the Cleveland Browns use the first-rounder they obtained from Indianapolis in the Trent Richardson trade last September.
The most recent mock drafts have reflected a belief that the quarterbacks in this year's class are slipping, at least when compared with the impressive depth available at other positions in the first round. McShay believes the Vikings should pass on players such as Alabama safety Ha Ha Clinton-Dix and Michigan State cornerback Darqueze Dennard -- each of whom he has being selected within three picks after the Vikings' choice -- to take Bortles. If the Vikings did that, they'd be gambling on their ability to develop Bortles and on the quarterback's potential to turn into an elite NFL QB.
That's a gamble the Vikings will eventually have to take again, whether or not they do it this year. GM Rick Spielman has said several times that the Vikings will keep trying to get a quarterback until they've landed an elite one, and though Matt Cassel might get Minnesota through this season, it's safe to say there's not a cornerstone quarterback on the roster. Bortles is ahead of Manziel and Bridgewater in many mock drafts, and if the Vikings do take him at No. 8 next month, instead of drafting a defensive player who might help them sooner, their decision-makers will be effectively stating they're so sure about Bortles' potential that they're willing to stake their futures on him.
FreddyCalhoun
All Star
CHAD 4.0 MOCK Draft
STAN JONES
Fire John Harbaugh
Biggest 'freaks' in 2014 NFL draft
You're always going to get remarkable numbers at the NFL combine and during pro days. While assumptions like, "Guys are running faster than ever before!" are probably a bit overstated, I think it's fair to say the depth of special athletes -- I guess "freaks" is the word everyone uses now -- is as impressive as it's ever been. You expect a smaller running back to run fast, but when an offensive tackle is fast, it certainly catches your eye. And some of them run really fast.
I wanted to point out some of the top physical talents in the 2014 draft. But I didn't just want it to be about the workouts. Therefore, there are two factors in play here:
1. Workout performances balanced against dimensions. (If you're fast, it helps to be big and strong, too.)
2. These guys aren't just athletes -- they have to be legit prospects who've produced.
It's not just about how big and fast a player is -- it's also about whether he can also do it when he's in football pads. Here are a couple dozen of them.
Offense
Logan Thomas, QB, Virginia Tech
He deserves a look at quarterback even after a two-year stretch in which development became a major question. As an athlete at his size, Thomas isn't just a freakish QB -- he's pretty comparable to a super-athletic NFL tight end. Thomas, at 6-foot-6 and 250 pounds, runs a 4.61 40, has a 35-plus inch vertical jump, broad jumps 118 inches -- all of which are within a hair of Jimmy Graham's combine numbers -- and also has monstrous 10 7/8-inch hands (bigger than Rob Gronkowski's).
Jerick McKinnon, RB, Georgia Southern
He saw a lot of time at QB in college, but McKinnon is a major sleeper at running back. A compact but powerful 5-9, 209, he ran the second-fastest 40 among all RBs at the combine at 4.41 -- behind only the diminutive Dri Archer -- but also had six more reps at 225 pounds than any other RB (32 total), and showed off a 40.5-inch vertical.
Dri Archer, RB, Kent State
At just 5-8, 173, you expect Archer to be fast -- and he is. He ran a blazing 4.26 40 and put up a 38-inch vertical, but Archer is also seriously strong. He put up 20 reps at 225 pounds. Think about that total from a player his size. I think he can go as high as Round 3.
Donte Moncrief, WR, Ole Miss
His route running needs work, but there's nothing more Moncrief can show as an athlete after running 4.40 and leaping 39.5 inches in the vertical, and he put up those numbers as a 6-2 wide receiver weighing in at 221 pounds. It's hard not to bet high on that workout.
Mike Evans, WR, Texas A&M
The speed numbers aren't incredible, but his 4.53 is plenty good for a player who checks in at 6-5 and 231 pounds, has a 34.5-inch vertical and 35-plus-inch arms. That kind of leaping ability and length will make Evans look like a giraffe.
Martavis Bryant, WR, Clemson
College teammate Sammy Watkins has pretty strong "athlete" credentials, but at a full three inches taller (6-4), Bryant ran faster (4.42), and also jumped 39 inches. Those are stretch-the-field-and-go-up-and-get-it totals.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Oregon State
Last year, Tavon Austin jumped in the draft after his workout totals matched up with his exceptional production. Well, no WR in college football caught more passes than Cooks last year, and all he did was run faster (4.33), jump higher and pump out more reps than Austin -- and he did so while 15 pounds heavier, two inches taller (5-10), and with longer arms.
A.C. Leonard, TE, Tennessee State
He ran faster than any tight end at the combine (4.50) -- next fastest was Eric Ebron at 4.60 -- but Leonard is no lightweight. He's on the shorter side at 6-2, but is 252 pounds and has 33-inch arms. He also posted a 34-inch vertical. The one-time Florida Gator and big-time recruit is a tremendous athlete.
Colt Lyerla, TE, Oregon
The character questions are a major problem, but Lyerla's "freak" credentials are pretty solid. Lyerla is 6-4 and 242 pounds but still ran 4.61 (he can go faster) and posted a 39-inch vertical in Indy. The next closest tight end went 35 inches. He's a big question mark, but not as an athlete.
Taylor Lewan, OT, Michigan
His 4.87 40-yard dash and 30.5-inch vertical wouldn't be so impressive, except when you consider (A) Lewan is nearly 6-8 and checks in at 310 pounds, and (B) he's a really good run-blocker, too. This is a tackle who can get out in front of a screen and almost beat the running back down the field.
Brandon Thomas, OT, Clemson
He hurt his knee during post-combine workouts and could sit out the 2014 season, but Thomas has that rare combination of extremely long arms -- a shade under 35 inches -- and impressive power: He benched 225 pounds 35 times.
Russell Bodine, C, NC State
I had to get an interior blocker in here, and Bodine is a worthy choice. He put up 42 reps -- that's six more than any other player at the combine. It's no wonder Bodine does such a great job of creating movement inside.
Defense
Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
Talk about a workout confirming the tape. After leading the nation in tackles for loss, Donald ran 4.68 at 285 pounds and threw in 35 reps for good measure. That 4.68 is faster than a couple of wide receivers who will get drafted before Day 3. And again: at 285 pounds! What's crazy about Donald is that he's really good technically, using his hands and leverage to shed blockers, along with his elite quickness at that size.
Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
Hageman can run sub-5.0 at 310 pounds, has a huge 34-plus-inch wingspan and a 6-6 frame and can jump 35.5 inches straight up. The former high school tight end also banged out 32 reps. He's a work in progress as a football player, but his athlete credentials could keep him in Round 1.
Howard Jones, OLB/DE, Shepherd
Let's get a sleeper in here. Jones battered tackles at the D-II level, and piled up 71.0 TFL and 34.5 sacks. His explosiveness is the reason why, as he ran a 4.60 40-yard dash and posted a 40.5-inch vertical. While strength is a question (21 reps), Jones has a long wingspan with 34 1/8-inch arms. He's a little bit in that Bruce Irvin mold: "It's third down. See the QB, get the QB." But he could be a find in the middle rounds for a team looking for an explosive situational rusher.
Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
The 4.53 40 at 266 pounds is crazy enough, but the 1.56-second 10-yard split is what's really impressive. Clowney's ability to get his body moving forward with such suddenness is what you dream about in a speed-to-power pass-rusher. Don't worry too much about the 21 reps, given Clowney has a wingspan just an inch shorter than LeBron James'. At 6-5 he also shows off a 37.5-inch vertical.
Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo
Mack didn't see the same competition as many of the top prospects, but his workout numbers show he wouldn't be out of place. He ran 4.65 at 251 pounds, has a 40-inch vertical and very good short-area quickness. On tape Mack shows a powerful lower half and the ability to get leverage, and he can really bend at the ankles to dip and turn the corner. Big-time athlete.
Prince Shembo, OLB, Notre Dame
He lacks one crazy workout number aside from a 38.5-inch vertical, but Shembo is good all around at 6-1, 253, and with long 33-plus-inch arms. He can run sub-4.7, and has good strength at that arm length with 26 reps.
Kevin Pierre-Louis, OLB, Boston College
He's a bit undersized for an OLB, playing at about 225-230 pounds, which could make him a conversion candidate, but Pierre-Louis is a lithe, lean, explosive athlete. In Indy he ran 4.51 with a 39-inch vertical and did 28 reps at 232 pounds. He could be a project, but he was productive as a four-year starter.
Jordan Tripp, LB, Montana
When he makes the read, Tripp comes flying out of his stance downhill to make plays at the line of scrimmage. And it's great when the workouts match the tape. His change-of-direction explosiveness is real, as the only players who were faster than him in the 20-yard shuttle are wide receivers, and one safety who beat him by a hundredth of a second. Tripp is explosive, and his 4.67 40 and 37.5-inch vertical at 234 pounds aren't too bad.
Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State
He's the total package as far as athletes go. He was timed at a hometown discount 4.36 at his pro day, but is easily a sub-4.5 runner, and he also had a crazy-good 42-inch vertical and 130-inch broad jump in Indy. Good thing for Shazier -- he looks fast in pads, too. If I'm drafting, Shazier's a first-round lock.
Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State
He ran a fast 4.39 officially in Indy, and you can see the explosiveness on the field. Roby also quietly put up 17 reps at 192 pounds, showing pretty good strength numbers, which help his case.
Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
He ran faster than any CB in Indy, going 4.37, but did so at 6-foot, 202 pounds, and also knocked out 20 reps even though he has 33 1/8-inch arms. A likely middle-first-round pick.
Terrence Brooks, S, Florida State
He was the fastest safety in Indy with a 4.42 and is an explosive leaper. More important, Brooks plays fast -- sometimes too fast as he can miss tackles when he flies to the ball. But many teams need safeties, and I could see Brooks gone in Round 2.
Aaron Donald, DT, Pittsburgh
Talk about a workout confirming the tape. After leading the nation in tackles for loss, Donald ran 4.68 at 285 pounds and threw in 35 reps for good measure. That 4.68 is faster than a couple of wide receivers who will get drafted before Day 3. And again: at 285 pounds! What's crazy about Donald is that he's really good technically, using his hands and leverage to shed blockers, along with his elite quickness at that size.
Ra'Shede Hageman, DT, Minnesota
Hageman can run sub-5.0 at 310 pounds, has a huge 34-plus-inch wingspan and a 6-6 frame and can jump 35.5 inches straight up. The former high school tight end also banged out 32 reps. He's a work in progress as a football player, but his athlete credentials could keep him in Round 1.
Howard Jones, OLB/DE, Shepherd
Let's get a sleeper in here. Jones battered tackles at the D-II level, and piled up 71.0 TFL and 34.5 sacks. His explosiveness is the reason why, as he ran a 4.60 40-yard dash and posted a 40.5-inch vertical. While strength is a question (21 reps), Jones has a long wingspan with 34 1/8-inch arms. He's a little bit in that Bruce Irvin mold: "It's third down. See the QB, get the QB." But he could be a find in the middle rounds for a team looking for an explosive situational rusher.
Jadeveon Clowney, DE, South Carolina
The 4.53 40 at 266 pounds is crazy enough, but the 1.56-second 10-yard split is what's really impressive. Clowney's ability to get his body moving forward with such suddenness is what you dream about in a speed-to-power pass-rusher. Don't worry too much about the 21 reps, given Clowney has a wingspan just an inch shorter than LeBron James'. At 6-5 he also shows off a 37.5-inch vertical.
Khalil Mack, OLB, Buffalo
Mack didn't see the same competition as many of the top prospects, but his workout numbers show he wouldn't be out of place. He ran 4.65 at 251 pounds, has a 40-inch vertical and very good short-area quickness. On tape Mack shows a powerful lower half and the ability to get leverage, and he can really bend at the ankles to dip and turn the corner. Big-time athlete.
Prince Shembo, OLB, Notre Dame
He lacks one crazy workout number aside from a 38.5-inch vertical, but Shembo is good all around at 6-1, 253, and with long 33-plus-inch arms. He can run sub-4.7, and has good strength at that arm length with 26 reps.
Kevin Pierre-Louis, OLB, Boston College
He's a bit undersized for an OLB, playing at about 225-230 pounds, which could make him a conversion candidate, but Pierre-Louis is a lithe, lean, explosive athlete. In Indy he ran 4.51 with a 39-inch vertical and did 28 reps at 232 pounds. He could be a project, but he was productive as a four-year starter.
Jordan Tripp, LB, Montana
When he makes the read, Tripp comes flying out of his stance downhill to make plays at the line of scrimmage. And it's great when the workouts match the tape. His change-of-direction explosiveness is real, as the only players who were faster than him in the 20-yard shuttle are wide receivers, and one safety who beat him by a hundredth of a second. Tripp is explosive, and his 4.67 40 and 37.5-inch vertical at 234 pounds aren't too bad.
Ryan Shazier, LB, Ohio State
He's the total package as far as athletes go. He was timed at a hometown discount 4.36 at his pro day, but is easily a sub-4.5 runner, and he also had a crazy-good 42-inch vertical and 130-inch broad jump in Indy. Good thing for Shazier -- he looks fast in pads, too. If I'm drafting, Shazier's a first-round lock.
Bradley Roby, CB, Ohio State
He ran a fast 4.39 officially in Indy, and you can see the explosiveness on the field. Roby also quietly put up 17 reps at 192 pounds, showing pretty good strength numbers, which help his case.
Justin Gilbert, CB, Oklahoma State
He ran faster than any CB in Indy, going 4.37, but did so at 6-foot, 202 pounds, and also knocked out 20 reps even though he has 33 1/8-inch arms. A likely middle-first-round pick.
Terrence Brooks, S, Florida State
He was the fastest safety in Indy with a 4.42 and is an explosive leaper. More important, Brooks plays fast -- sometimes too fast as he can miss tackles when he flies to the ball. But many teams need safeties, and I could see Brooks gone in Round 2.
Picks, trades that could shape draft
When it comes to the NFL draft, divining potential pairings of prospects and teams is not an easy exercise -- and it is not getting any more predictable. Trades at the top of the draft used to be a rarity. There was a time under the old collective bargaining agreement when you couldn't give away a top-five draft pick. In fact, during my time as GM, we once considered passing on our first-round pick because we didn't believe the required salary investment was worth it. But now, under the new CBA, the rookie wage scale has greatly increased the possibilities at the top of the draft. And because of that, May 8 is dripping with intrigue.
In 2012, we had a fairly predictable top of the draft. The Colts were focusing on Andrew Luck and the Redskins on Robert Griffin III. Even in 2013, we were relatively confident the Chiefs would select a lineman at No. 1, and they did, taking Eric Fisher. But the 2014 draft is topped by a team, the Houston Texans, with a clear need at quarterback -- the most important position in the game -- but with no QB prospect worthy of a No. 1 pick ... particularly with generational pass-rusher Jadeveon Clowney there for the taking.
That confluence has put the draft's first pick squarely in play, and I see three potential scenarios that could shape the rest of what likely will be a turbulent first round.
Below are the 2014 draft's most likely early pivot points, a collection of particularly intriguing picks or potential trades that could steer the draft in an unexpected direction. As noted, those surprises could start with the No. 1 pick.
Pivot Point 1: Texans' triple option
Pick No. 1, Houston Texans
I see three possibilities at No. 1: The Texans take Clowney; the Texans trade the pick to a team targeting Clowney; or a potential shocker -- they trade the pick to a team targeting an offensive tackle. Let's operate in reverse order, starting with the long shot. In my experience, a team trading up to No. 1 to select a tackle is virtually unheard of (the last time a team did so was the Rams in 1997, selecting Orlando Pace). But the rookie wage scale makes it more likely, as does the outsize emphasis teams place on their quarterback's health. Add in the Rams, sitting at No. 2, and their clear need for a tackle, a team that picks further down could be motivated to jump ahead of St. Louis to ensure the selection of the top tackle on their board. With clear offensive line needs in Atlanta, Buffalo and Miami, this scenario is possible, although it's still unlikely in my mind.
Whether it is a team trading up to take Clowney -- we've already heard of rumored interest in him by the Falcons and Lions -- or the Texans keeping the pick to select the pass-rusher, the odds are on Clowney coming off the board first. The latter scenario might be the more interesting of the two.
If the Texans take Clowney at No. 1, they'll still have a glaring need under center. Although they have the No. 33 pick to start Round 2, it's doubtful they'll be able to select a first-, or even second-tier QB that late. We'll revisit the high demand for quarterbacks a little later, but if Houston keeps the No. 1 pick to select Clowney, I believe No. 33 will immediately become available as the Texans try to trade back into the first round to find their franchise quarterback.
But the trade intrigue is only beginning...
Pivot Point 2: Maximizing return
Pick No. 2, St. Louis Rams
The Rams are sitting pretty. Not only will they likely be able to have their pick of prospects at their biggest position of need (OT) but this slot oozes with potential trade value. That value would skyrocket if Clowney is somehow still on the board, but teams chasing Buffalo pass-rusher Khalil Mack or Clemson WR Sammy Watkins or even a team trying to lock up the first quarterback ahead of the Cleveland Browns at No. 4 -- where I believe they'll target Johnny Manziel -- will have interest in moving up to No. 2.
This pick, obtained in the Griffin trade and inflated by the Redskins' poor season, is really a luxury for St. Louis. But that doesn't mean the Rams won't try to make the most of it.
They can maximize the value by trading down, adding more picks and still selecting the top tackle on their board. Four tackles form the cream of the crop: Texas A&M's Jake Matthews (the most NFL-ready, in my mind), Auburn's Greg Robinson, Michigan's Taylor Lewan and Notre Dame's Zack Martin. Assuming the Rams have these players comparably slotted on their board, they likely could trade back as far as No. 6 or No. 8 and still get their elite tackle prospect.
We've already seen the Rams' inclination to wheel and deal in the past two drafts. It would be no surprise if they swap one of their first two picks (more on No. 13 below), with the No. 2 pick likely to net the biggest return in exchange for minimal risk.
Pivot Point 3: Top-shelf talent
Pick No. 13, St. Louis Rams
First, let's rewind a little to see how the first round could flow to this point. The odds are that the first three picks will be Clowney, Mack and Watkins, in some combination.
That brings us to the Browns at No. 4. Cleveland is a wild card; its GM has no track record to provide any clues. But this fan base clearly needs a shot in the arm, and there will be a player on the board who could provide just that. The franchise is sound in most areas, with one glaring need: quarterback. I think they'll spring for Manziel. He has the hand size to overcome the cold and other weather conditions in the AFC North, and the Bengals, Ravens and Steelers are built to chase stationary QBs, not someone with Manziel's elusiveness. Johnny Football makes sense at No. 4.
It's possible the Raiders would like to trade down from No. 5, eager to add assets after several years with few draft picks to spend, but is there a can't-miss player another team would trade up to obtain? I don't see a match unless someone wanted to beat the Falcons to a particular offensive tackle, which is the position I believe Atlanta will address if it stays at No. 6. Pittsburgh DT Aaron Donald is an ideal fit as a 3-technique in the Bucs' new Tampa 2 defense, and I see that match at No. 7. The Vikings almost certainly will take the best QB on the board -- possibly Blake Bortles -- at No. 8.
With that pick (No. 8), we have the second QB off the board, which sets up some more intrigue, although not at the quarterback position.
In every draft, there's usually a clear upper tier of talent. As those elite prospects begin to dwindle, that creates its own pivot point. I believe there are 12 such prospects in this draft, none of them quarterbacks. In no particular order, they are: Clowney, Mack, Watkins, Robinson, Lewan, Matthews, Martin, Donald, UCLA OLBAnthony Barr, Michigan State CB Darqueze Dennard, LSU WR Odell Beckham Jr. and Texas A&M WR Mike Evans. Add in the likelihood that two of the QBs will come off the board between picks No. 4 and 8 and that talent precipice should fall near pick No. 14, which makes the Rams' slot at No. 13 a clear trade target, particularly given that it's St. Louis' second pick in Round 1. If a team choosing later in the first round is convinced those 12 players form the head of the draft class, it might try to trade up.
Pivot Point 4: The QB run
Pick No. 18, New York Jets
Pick No. 19, Miami Dolphins
I see this as the most likely territory for a QB run, as I believe the value the draft quarterbacks present just doesn't warrant a selection higher than this range. Plus, it's likely only two quarterbacks will be off the board at this point, where the asking price certainly will be cheaper than at the top of the draft.
Yes, Tennessee has a need under center, but would the Titans pass on Dennard, who can fill another key need, to latch onto what could be the third QB off the board, perhaps Teddy Bridgewater or Derek Carr? It's more likely the Titans will take the best player available. That makes the Arizona Cardinals, at No. 20, the next most likely team targeting a signal-caller. If you want to make sure you get the top QB left on your board, you're going to need to get ahead of the Cardinals.
The Texans (who can offer that No. 33 pick), Jaguars, Raiders and Titans could all have interest in moving into this range, as they'll hope to take their pick of quarterbacks such as Bridgewater, Carr, Eastern Illinois' Jimmy Garoppolo and Pittsburgh's Tom Savage.
Could teams wait until Round 2 to select their QB? Sure, but they almost certainly would be selecting from a picked-over prospect pool. When your aim is to add a franchise arm, that's not the approach you want to take. As a GM, if you're going to draft a QB who will be seen as "your guy," you want to make sure he really is your guy, not merely the player left on the board when your pick rolled around.
Pick No. 18, New York Jets
Pick No. 19, Miami Dolphins
I see this as the most likely territory for a QB run, as I believe the value the draft quarterbacks present just doesn't warrant a selection higher than this range. Plus, it's likely only two quarterbacks will be off the board at this point, where the asking price certainly will be cheaper than at the top of the draft.
Yes, Tennessee has a need under center, but would the Titans pass on Dennard, who can fill another key need, to latch onto what could be the third QB off the board, perhaps Teddy Bridgewater or Derek Carr? It's more likely the Titans will take the best player available. That makes the Arizona Cardinals, at No. 20, the next most likely team targeting a signal-caller. If you want to make sure you get the top QB left on your board, you're going to need to get ahead of the Cardinals.
The Texans (who can offer that No. 33 pick), Jaguars, Raiders and Titans could all have interest in moving into this range, as they'll hope to take their pick of quarterbacks such as Bridgewater, Carr, Eastern Illinois' Jimmy Garoppolo and Pittsburgh's Tom Savage.
Could teams wait until Round 2 to select their QB? Sure, but they almost certainly would be selecting from a picked-over prospect pool. When your aim is to add a franchise arm, that's not the approach you want to take. As a GM, if you're going to draft a QB who will be seen as "your guy," you want to make sure he really is your guy, not merely the player left on the board when your pick rolled around.
STAN JONES
Fire John Harbaugh
thank you
954UAlreadyknow
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What the Nets' sweep means
How much stock do we put in a 4-0 sweep?
That's the question we have to answer these days as we get ready for the Brooklyn Nets and Miami Heat to face off Tuesday night in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinals. The Nets won all four regular-season meetings between these two teams, the first time the Heat have been swept in four games during the Big Three era. Actually, no team had ever swept a LeBron James team in four games.
This has to mean something. But how much? No team totally lucks its way into four wins and zero losses against a team featuring James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh on the roster. We also know that regular-season series matchups hold loads of predictive power in the playoffs. The takeaway is that if you take care of business in the regular season against an opponent, you'll be in good shape come playoff time.
Two defending champs have learned that the hard way. Coming off a three-peat in 2002-03, the Lakers got swept 4-0 by the San Antonio Spurs in the regular season. What happened in the postseason? They lost to the Spurs in six games in the Western Conference semifinals. The 1995-96 Houston Rockets, same deal. Going for a three-peat (sound familiar, Heat fans?), the Rockets met the Seattle Supersonics in the playoffs after losing all four games in the regular season. Then Shawn Kemp and Gary Payton busted out the brooms again and swept the Rockets in four games in the postseason.
Then we throw in this fact dug up by Per Diem mate Kevin Pelton: In seven-game series since 2001, teams that swept the head-to-head series in the regular season are 17-1 in the postseason matchup. All but one followed the same fate.
This all spells doom and gloom for the Heat, right?
Not so fast. This Heat team looks like it will be the exception, not the rule. Here are three reasons why the 4-0 sweep by the Nets is nothing but a mirage.
1. All four games were a toss-up
Indeed, the Nets won all four games. You can't take that away from them. But if we look deeper, we see that this wasn't a beating that a 4-0 record would otherwise indicate. Three of Brooklyn's wins were by one point, and the fourth came in double overtime (the Nets won 104-95 after James fouled out in the first overtime). In other words, the Heat called heads on four coin flips and it turned up tails all four times.
You may be wondering whether this is the closest 4-0 sweep in which the teams met again in the playoffs. I had Elias Sports Bureau look into it, and it found that the scoring margin of 12 points is the lowest total for any 4-0 regular-season sweep in which the participants faced off again in the postseason. So this is as close as it gets. We're in uncharted territory.
What it comes down to is that all four games could have easily gone the other way. That wasn't the case for the 2003 Lakers and 1996 Rockets. The total point margins in their sweeps were minus-29 and minus-27, respectively, and only one of their eight losses was by fewer than five points. It wasn't nearly as close as this Brooklyn-Miami series, which came down to a loose ball here and a lucky bounce there.
2. New personnel this time around
It'd be one thing if the Nets had swept the Heat in all four games with their full lineup, but that's not the case. It's almost impossible to project how the postseason will fare based on the regular-season matchup because of all the key missing pieces.
More specifically, Wade and Kevin Garnett both have been in and out of the lineup all season, which blurs the regular-season predictive power even more. Consider this: The previous time Wade and Garnett faced each other on the court was more than six months ago, on Nov. 1, when the 76ers looked like a juggernaut and Derrick Rose was still healthy. A lot has changed since then.
Guess how many minutes the Nets' starting lineup has played against the Heat this season? Try zero. The picture gets even cloudier. According to NBA.com, the Heat's most-used lineup against the Nets this season featured Norris Cole and Rashard Lewis. If you didn't already know that this particular regular-season series has little predictive power, then that fact hammers it home like a James breakaway.
3. The Heat typically get revenge in postseason
There's a reason we constantly hear about how the Heat go to an extra gear in the playoffs.
They have a history of getting payback against teams who take the regular-season series. In 2010-11, Paul Pierce and Garnett's Celtics won three of four games against Miami in the regular season and lost the postseason series in four games. The Chicago Bulls swept the Heat in three games in the regular season and lost the postseason series in five games. Remember that 17-1 sweep stat from Pelton? There's the lone exception.
There's more. The Heat did it to Pierce and Garnett again in the 2012 Eastern Conference finals after losing the regular-season series 3-1. Throw last season's Pacers in the pile, too. The 2012-13 Pacers took the regular-season series 2-1 against the Heat before falling to the Heat in seven games. All in all, the Heat have gotten revenge on four of the five teams that got the upper hand in the regular season, with the Dallas Mavericks (2-0 in the regular season) being the exception.
This is why it's hard to believe that the Nets have the Heat's number. Not only were the four wins by razor-thin margins and the cast of characters scrambled in the regular season, but the Heat consistently show that regular-season results mean very little to them in the postseason. They ramp up the demanding defensive scheme, ride their top guns more and generally play with more precision on the offensive end.
This is where it's important to distinguish between descriptive and predictive statistics. It's an undeniable fact that the Nets went 4-0 against the Heat. But for the three reasons outlined above, that record matters more for record-keeping than fortune-telling.