10 most improbable performances
No, there wasn't a full moon. But some strange power controlled a wild, wacky NBA weekend that included a series of career performances and unlikely outcomes. In case you missed them, let's recap by ranking the 10 most improbable events, counting down to the most unexpected result.
10. Wolves win a close game
On the surface, the Minnesota Timberwolves emerging victorious 121-120 Friday night at Golden State when Warriors forward Harrison Barnes missed a possible game-winning shot at the buzzer might seem wildly improbable. After all, it was Minnesota's first win this season by fewer than five points after 11 losses in such games. However, avid Per Diem readers knew that history suggested overwhelmingly the Timberwolves were bound to catch better breaks at some point. Instead, the greater surprise was ...
9. Ricky Rubio making a clutch shot
With a little less than two minutes on the clock, Rubio hit a short jumper. That wouldn't be notable except that it was his first make all season in the last four minutes of a game when the margin was five points or fewer. According to NBA.com/Stats, he had been 0-of-12 in such situations. And as Warriors broadcaster Bob Fitzgerald immediately noted, Rubio hadn't made a shot in the fourth quarter regardless of score since Dec. 16, a span of 10 consecutive misses that dropped him to 8-of-44 (18.2 percent) from the field in the final period.
8. Stephen Curry misses two free throws
It was a strong weekend for Curry, who scored 71 points and handed out 23 assists over two games. But it was marred by an improbable 0-for-2 trip to the charity stripe in the third quarter of the Warriors' win over Portland on Sunday. On paper, an 86 percent free throw shooter such as Curry should miss both shots about once every 50 trips to the line. Yet Curry has shown the ability to rally from a miss and hadn't gone 0-for-2 all season. His previous pair of missed free throws came last March 25 against the Los Angeles Lakers.
7. Marcus Thornton scores 42 points
Based strictly on Thornton's performance this season, his 42 points in the Kings' overtime loss to the Indiana Pacers on Friday were mind-blowing. Thornton came into the game averaging just 7.3 points per game, and even fewer (5.7 PPG) in his 15 starts. He hadn't scored double figures in any of his last nine games, totaling 33 points, before exploding for 42 in as many minutes on 16-of-27 shooting. The only reason Thornton doesn't rank higher is that he's shown the ability to catch fire in the past. Friday was the sixth 35-plus outing of his career, including his 42 points against Golden State in March 2011.
6. Mirza Teletovic scores 24 points in the second quarter
Before Friday night's craziness began in earnest, Teletovic drew attention with his red-hot second quarter against the Dallas Mavericks. The second-year Brooklyn Nets forward scored 24 points in 12 minutes, making 9-of-10 shots -- including six 3-pointers -- before missing a desperation attempt at the halftime buzzer. In a single period, Teletovic surpassed his previous career single-game high (19 points), not to mention the season highs of more than two-thirds of the players in the NBA, including Ray Allen, Vince Carter and Kawhi Leonard.
5. Carmelo Anthony scores 62 points
If anyone in the NBA was going to score 62 points, Anthony probably would be the second guess after Kevin Durant. Still, the odds are overwhelmingly against any player going for 60-plus, which is why nobody had done so in nearly five years since Kobe Bryant's 61-point game at Madison Square Garden in February 2009. Anthony's performance was more standard deviations (6.2) away from his scoring average entering the game than Thornton's 42 points (5.5).
4. That nobody has scored more than 62 points at Madison Square Garden
Isn't it surprising that the mark Anthony broke for scoring at the World's Most Famous Arena isn't higher? The Knicks have been playing at the current incarnation of MSG for more than 45 years, so there have been plenty of opportunities for the league's brightest stars to shine on the biggest stage. Yet the MSG record falls short of the highest-scoring game at Oracle Arena (64 points by Rick Barry in March 1974) and the scoring record in a Knicks road game (68 points by Pete Maravich for the New Orleans Jazz at the Superdome in February 1977). Oracle is the Golden State Warriors' home in Oakland, Calif. -- and it's the only NBA arena that's older than MSG.
3. Chandler Parsons makes 10 3-pointers
In the first half of Friday's game against the Memphis Grizzlies, the Houston Rockets missed 13 of 14 3-point attempts.
Parsons changed that in a big way after halftime, making 10 consecutive 3-pointers before missing his final attempt from 30 feet away with 1:13 left in a game the Rockets lost 88-87. Parsons set a franchise record and became the 16th player in NBA history to make at least 10 triples in a game. This feat was slightly less remarkable than Anthony's night in standard deviations away from average (5.9), but I rank it as more improbable because of the 10-for-10 streak. On average, a 40 percent 3-point shooter such as Parsons will make 10 in a row about once every 9,500 series of shots.
2. Terrence Ross scores 51 points
While topping Friday's craziness seemed impossible, Ross was up for the challenge. The second-year Toronto Raptors wing caught fire from the perimeter on Saturday night, matching Parsons' total of 10 3-pointers en route to tying the franchise record with 51 points. That's heady stuff for a player who had never before topped 24 points in a game. Ross' performance was 6.0 standard deviations higher than his scoring average as a starter, and 6.6 standard deviations better than his season-long numbers.
Only time will tell whether Ross will eventually be remembered with unlikely 50-point scorers like Willie Burton and Tony Delk, but as NBCSports.com's Dan Feldman noted, his season scoring average would be the lowest of any player during their 50-point season. Still, Delk's 53-point game was 6.8 standard deviations higher than his season average because he was more consistent during 2000-01. While Burton's big night stands out more in the context of his career, Delk had what was statistically the most unlikely 50-point game.
1. Greg Oden dunking on Tim Duncan
Only one event could top the improbability of Ross' career night, and that's Oden dunking on legendary Tim Duncan during the Miami Heat's 113-101 win over the San Antonio Spurs on national TV. For Oden to be healthy enough to play at all after sitting out nearly four full years is one thing. For him to be productive, as he has been in limited minutes -- his 13 minutes Sunday marked his longest outing of the season -- is astronomically unlikely given how long Oden was out. In a year when injuries have robbed the game of many of its top talents, Oden's comeback has served as a refreshing (and improbable) counterexample.
