Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)
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Trill Bellamy
Whateva Man
Mel is garbage.
This has to be his worst first mock to date.
This has to be his worst first mock to date.
Can Denver win minus Manning?
Strange as it sounds, some of the Denver Broncos' AFC West rivals wouldn't mind if Peyton Manning & Co. won the Super Bowl this season. It's not that they are secretly fans of the Broncos -- far from it. But in assessing their own prospects, they realize how much the future would brighten if Manning decided to walk away from the game a champion at age 37, his health and legacy intact.
"Everybody in the AFC West would be a little happier," an executive from another team in the division mused. "You'd have a more enjoyable vacation, that's for sure."
There is also at least an outside chance a postseason physical exam scheduled for March could nudge Manning from the game if results show instability in his surgically repaired neck. No decent person could root for that outcome, but as Manning himself has stated, the end is coming sooner than later. And if it comes this offseason, then what for Denver?
"I think they are going to take a big crash," a personnel evaluator from another AFC team predicted.
"They will be a good football team," a coach from an AFC West rival counters.
"Nobody is set up to weather it," an NFL player agent said. "It's like being set up to weather when Babe Ruth retires or when a supermodel dumps you. You can never be."
Opinions are mixed, but what does the evidence say? Let's take a closer look.
A skeptical view
Manning, Tom Brady, Aaron Rodgers and Drew Brees have combined to win 71.4 percent of their starts over the past six seasons. The NFL's other starters have won 47.3 percent of the time over the same period. The Broncos have lived the difference. They are 26-6 with Manning over the past two seasons after going 8-8 with Tim Tebow and Kyle Orton in 2011. Their current backup, 2012 second-round choice Brock Osweiler, has attempted 20 passes, 1.75 fewer than Manning averaged in first halves this season. That makes it tough to know just how far the Broncos would slide if they suddenly needed Osweiler to take over.
The question is really to what degree the Broncos' other players rely upon Manning to be effective. The AFC evaluator thinks it's a ton.
"I remember working out Julius Thomas at Portland State when he was first coming out as a basketball player and thinking it would be nice if he makes it," he said. "This year, he had a Pro Bowl year. Eric Decker had a breakout year. Wes Welker in the slot, as we've seen with Brady and now Manning, could not have gone to two better places for a slot receiver to be productive. Demaryius Thomas has had breakout years with Manning, whereas before he was a big, fast receiver from Georgia Tech, where they do not even throw the ball."
The implication was that some of those players would revert to previous form in the absence of an all-world quarterback.
"And then there is nothing really special about the defense," the AFC evaluator said. "Von Miller got hurt. Champ Bailey is older. Derek Wolfe was a try-hard guy before he got hurt. Shaun Phillips was done in San Diego and now is playing pretty well. They have good undersized linebackers that run and hit, and a secondary that is makeshift a little bit. Quentin Jammer is winding down. Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, this is his third team. Duke Ihenacho is a one-dimensional hitter, Mike Adams is well-traveled."
The Broncos set an NFL record for scoring this season, taking pressure off the defense. But the defense ranked only 22nd in points allowed and 20th in defensive expected points added.
Wait, Broncos would be OK
All this skepticism is stirring visions of the 2011 Indianapolis Colts. They were coming off a 10-6 season and hoped Manning would return from neck surgery in time for the opener. Instead, Manning missed the entire season. Backup Kerry Collins landed on injured reserve before Halloween. The Colts finished 2-14. It was a nightmare season and an extreme cautionary tale about what can happen when a team goes from all-time great QB to third-stringer. Would the Broncos be headed for something similar if Manning walked away and the untested Osweiler took over?
"Not at all," an NFC personnel evaluator said. "This team is so much more talented. Indy had receivers, but they were lacking in talent, especially on the offensive line. Look at the Colts' last few drafts before Manning got hurt and you won't find impact players."
There is some truth to that. The players Indy drafted in 2009, 2010 and 2011 were at a disadvantage ultimately because the organization overhauled its roster after that 2-14 season. The Colts were also selecting near the bottom of each round. Even so, these weren't strong draft classes. The first three rounds of those drafts netted Donald Brown, Fili Moala, Jerraud Powers, Jerry Hughes, Pat Angerer, Kevin Thomas, Anthony Castonzo, Ben Ijalana and Drake Nevis. The Broncos' 2011 draft alone produced Miller, Rahim Moore, Orlando Franklin, Nate Irving, Quinton Carter, Julius Thomas and Virgil Green. Six of them combined for 55 starts this season.
"They have a nice foundation," the NFC evaluator said. "Montee Ball has come on. Danny Trevathan is a solid starter. Malik Jackson has shown something. Sylvester Williams has come on now that he is playing. Knowshon Moreno is 26. Demaryius Thomas is 26. Decker is 26. Louis Vasquez is 26. Franklin is 26. I don't know what they do with Rodgers-Cromartie, but you have a guy in Chris Harris who will bounce back. Defensively, they do not have any one area that is in need. Miller will come back."
Coach John Fox has proved to be adaptable. He won with defense and a running game during his best seasons with the Carolina Panthers. We could see Denver shift in that direction if Manning was no longer part of the equation. The move to select Osweiler in the second round even after acquiring Manning showed the Broncos were serious about investing in the position and weren't operating under the assumption Manning wouldn't face any further health concerns. "Watching Osweiler in college, he will be better than what the Colts put on the field as their backups in 2011," the AFC evaluator said. And if Manning were to leave the roster voluntarily, the team would most likely realize unspecified salary-cap savings to consider adding pieces in free agency.
"Get me Josh McCown as a veteran behind Osweiler to help mentor him," ESPN.com NFL scout Matt Williamson said. "That would be a priority if Manning was gone. If you could get Michael Bennett or a big-time defensive end, maybe a Michael Johnson, that would really help. Greg Hardy might be too pricey. Julius Peppers will get cut. I don't know if you want to go that old, but he was with Fox in Carolina. Maybe you get something in the secondary or you use a first-rounder for a corner or a difference-maker at safety. And maybe you have the money to keep Decker, although this draft is big on wide receivers and you could get one in the second or third round."
Fitting in AFC West
Manning gives the Broncos a clear edge over their AFC West rivals even though Philip Rivers returned to top form in San Diego and Alex Smith showed he could carry the Kansas City Chiefs for stretches late in the season. Williamson, who has been dismissive of Smith in the past, called him a "borderline franchise quarterback" who broke out of his game-managing shell when the Chiefs needed him late in the season.
In other words, the Broncos could quickly have only the third-best quarterback in the division if Manning walked away. Their offensive line, No. 1 in Pro Football Focus' rankings for pass protection, might not appear so effective with an inexperienced quarterback holding onto the ball too long.
Recent history tells us the Broncos could expect to lose about four victories if they replaced Manning with an average starting quarterback, all else equal. The math, explained in detail last offseason, is pretty simple. Team winning percentages correlate very closely with average single-game Total QBR scores on a 0-100 scale. A team with an average score of 50 could expect to win about half its games, and so on. Manning's average score was 77.8 this season; the rest of the league's starters averaged 50.9. The difference between the two works out to nearly 4.3 victories over a 16-game schedule. For Denver, that could be the difference between 13-3 and 9-7, provided the team could find an average starter.
"You would have to win games some other way," the assistant coach from an AFC West rival said. "Play great defense, run the ball better, have a guy who is efficient at the position. The innovation of the coaching staff becomes important. Organizations do win. They replace good players with good players. They replace great players with good players that play better around them. Denver has got it. Denver understands. They have a head coach and general manager and owner who understand how to win and what it takes."
"Get me Josh McCown as a veteran behind Osweiler to help mentor him," ESPN.com NFL scout Matt Williamson said. "That would be a priority if Manning was gone. If you could get Michael Bennett or a big-time defensive end, maybe a Michael Johnson, that would really help. Greg Hardy might be too pricey. Julius Peppers will get cut. I don't know if you want to go that old, but he was with Fox in Carolina. Maybe you get something in the secondary or you use a first-rounder for a corner or a difference-maker at safety. And maybe you have the money to keep Decker, although this draft is big on wide receivers and you could get one in the second or third round."
Fitting in AFC West
Manning gives the Broncos a clear edge over their AFC West rivals even though Philip Rivers returned to top form in San Diego and Alex Smith showed he could carry the Kansas City Chiefs for stretches late in the season. Williamson, who has been dismissive of Smith in the past, called him a "borderline franchise quarterback" who broke out of his game-managing shell when the Chiefs needed him late in the season.
In other words, the Broncos could quickly have only the third-best quarterback in the division if Manning walked away. Their offensive line, No. 1 in Pro Football Focus' rankings for pass protection, might not appear so effective with an inexperienced quarterback holding onto the ball too long.
Recent history tells us the Broncos could expect to lose about four victories if they replaced Manning with an average starting quarterback, all else equal. The math, explained in detail last offseason, is pretty simple. Team winning percentages correlate very closely with average single-game Total QBR scores on a 0-100 scale. A team with an average score of 50 could expect to win about half its games, and so on. Manning's average score was 77.8 this season; the rest of the league's starters averaged 50.9. The difference between the two works out to nearly 4.3 victories over a 16-game schedule. For Denver, that could be the difference between 13-3 and 9-7, provided the team could find an average starter.
"You would have to win games some other way," the assistant coach from an AFC West rival said. "Play great defense, run the ball better, have a guy who is efficient at the position. The innovation of the coaching staff becomes important. Organizations do win. They replace good players with good players. They replace great players with good players that play better around them. Denver has got it. Denver understands. They have a head coach and general manager and owner who understand how to win and what it takes."
labelplant
Wilt Chamberlain
Wow they was talking about Ron Baker. Watching him play last year in the tourney and a little bit this year, I think he is a big time sleeper for the draft right now. Does all the little things. Can shoot, pass, rebound, defend. Seems to love being a role player. And is just athletic/long enough to guard most SGs in the league right now, IMO. Its not like I expect him to be a star but certainly will make a solid role player off the bench IMO.
Could Turner, Hawes be a package deal?
Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes are two names that continue to come up in trade rumors, and on Wednesday a new report suggested that Philadelphia is looking to pair the duo together in a trade.
Jake Pavorsky, the associate editor of the Sixers' SB Nation siteLibertyBallers.com, wrote: "Sources have expressed to Liberty Ballers that Philadelphia is stepping back from any trade negotiations for Thaddeus Young, and attempting to push a package of Evan Turner and Spencer Hawes. The source also went on to say that a few teams have shown interest, although rather minute, and no deal is close to imminent."
As Pavorsky notes, Hawes and Turner are both on expiring contracts (Turner will become a restricted free agent this summer), while Young is signed through 2014-15 and has a $9.72 million player option in 2015-16.
If the Sixers do manage to pull off a deal that unloads Hawes and Turner, it'd leave the team with a core of Michael Carter-Williams, Young and Nerlens Noel going forward. With that in mind, it's likely that the Sixers would seek perimeter-shooting wing scorers in return, with that also probably being their primary focus in the June draft.
Why the Sixers haven't made a trade
Philadelphia is full-speed ahead in rebuild mode, and if the first half of the season has proven anything it's that the Sixers found have a a couple good pieces to build around in Michael Carter-Williams and Tony Wroten. Nerlens Noel is certainly potentially another one.
But with the Sixers (12-25) currently holding the third-worst record in the Eastern Conference, it's clear that contending is still likely a few years away.
So why, then, has the team with numerous attractive trade candidates (Spencer Hawes,Thaddeus Young, Evan Turner) not yet made a move?
According to ESPN's Chad Ford, who was asked that question Wednesday in a SportsNation chat, the answer is fairly simple.
Chad Ford
Philly is wise to wait"Unfortunately for the Sixers, most teams don't make their best offers in January. Usually those don't come until the week of the trade deadline. So while there is clearly an incentive to trade now to lose more games, if Hinkie waits, he probably gets more value in a month than he does now. Besides, the Sixers still have the third best shot of winning the lottery with those guys. It's not like they are playing themselves out of a contention for a Top 3 pick."
Thaddeus Young's trade value
It remains to be seen if Philadelphia will opt to trade Thaddeus Young. Even though they are in rebuild mode, dealing the rising 25-year-old power forward is no slam dunk. After all, he's putting together his finest season as a pro and has expanded his range out to the 3-point arc. He's also signed through 2014-15.
The Sixers could just as easily decide to keep Young around and try to lock him up for the long-term. With that being said, ESPN's Chad Ford recently explained in a SportsNation chat why it may make a lot of sense for the Sixers to see what they can get for him.
That reason? His high trade value. Here's Ford with more.
Chad Ford
Philly could land a big haul for Young"I think Young should be able to fetch them quite a bit. He's only 25 years old and I think he's finally coming into his own. I heard the Cavs flirted with trying to acquire him in the Bynum deal, but the Sixers wanted the Cavs first rounder this year to do it. The Cavs balked."
The War Report
NewNewYork
ill
Superstar
As Kevin Durant and LeBron James duke it out in the MVP race and the J.R. Smith circus tours America, it got me thinking:
Who's leading the LVP race so far?
In this edition of Per Diem, we'll take stock in the race for the least valuable player so far this season. Just like in the MVP race, we're not considering the contract status. For the purposes of this list, we're interested in identifying the players who have hurt their team's chances to win most. In essence, we're not looking at the 15th man on the roster. After all, you can't lose if you don't play.
Taking into consideration every player's traditional numbers and advance metrics including on-court/off-court data, here is one man's ranking of the least valuable players in the league so far.
And the "winners" are …
LVP: Kendrick Perkins, Oklahoma City Thunder
Give the guy a Nobel Peace Prize, because his leadership must be that transformative. Otherwise, there is no way he could convince an NBA coach to give him 20 minutes a night in 2014. Alas, Scott Brooks can't shake his Perkins addiction. With Perkins, every shred of tangible evidence points to "not an NBA player."
Perkins
Get this: He currently has more turnovers (53) than made baskets (48). And then there's the fact that he fouls five times as often as he blocks a shot.
If he does positive things outside the box score, it doesn't show on the scoreboard; the Thunder are 9.2 points per 100 possessions worse with him on the floor, according to NBA.com. That is especially amazing considering he plays almost exclusively (683 of his 690 minutes) with Kevin Durant. Even the MVP favorite can't hide his futility. Perkins ranks last in Estimated Wins Added (minus-1.5) and second-to-last in WARP (minus-1.8). It's hard to imagine a player more unintentionally destructive.
Second place: Anthony Bennett, Cleveland Cavaliers
Please, just send him to the D-League already. This isn't about pity; it's about rehabilitation. You know what's worse for his confidence than a demotion? Sticking with the status quo.
Bennett
With an obscenely bad 1.1 PER and a subterranean 31.9 percent true shooting percentage, this is the worst rookie season for a top pick by a country mile. The guy is shooting 14-for-78 (18 percent) outside five feet and ranks dead last in win shares (minus-0.9).
For someone with conditioning issues, why nail him to the bench when he could work himself into shape in the D-League without the spotlight? Keeping him on the big-league roster reeks of cognitive dissonance by a desperate organization trying to save face. The sleep apnea, shoulder soreness and asthma issues are real, but so is the potential damage to his career and the Cavs' chances at relevance. He might not boast the number of minutes as the rest of the names here, but his play is too toxic to leave him off.
Third place: Ben McLemore, Sacramento Kings.
Maybe it's completely meaningless and utterly arbitrary, but ever since LeBron James posterized him in Miami on Dec. 20, here are the rook's averages over those 12 games: 21.0 minutes, 4.6 points, 2.1 rebounds, 0.8 assists and 31.7 percent shooting from the floor, 32.1 percent from downtown and 0.7 free throw attempts.
McLemore
The worst part? He has 35 fouls and one steal over that span. That's horrendous for an athlete like him.
You probably haven't heard more about McLemore's demise because the most of the top 10 in the 2013 draft (with the exception of No. 9 pick Trey Burke) has been a train wreck. But McLemore's minus-0.4 PER this month illustrates how bad it's gotten, and he's now in danger of dropping out of the rotation after losing his starting spot earlier this month.
He's still just 20 years old, but we could be waiting a while for his athleticism to translate onto the NBA level.
Fourth place: Tayshaun Prince, Memphis Grizzlies
Meet the least valuable player in the league so far -- according to WARP. The 33-year-old has been a tire fire this season as the Grizzlies' starting small forward, posting a minus-1.9 WARP, which means that he's cost the Grizzlies two wins compared to a guy at the end of the bench.
Prince
For a team like the Grizzlies in the thick of the race, those two wins could be the difference between a playoff spot and the lottery.
Now that Prince has oddly abandoned the 3-point line for a team that is starving for treys, his value as an offensive player has just about vanished. He's not a shot creator and he ranks dead last in catch-and-shoot efficiency among the 82 players with at least 100 plays, according to Synergy. His solid defense keeps him from appearing higher on the list, but even that is waning as he ages. Recent free agent signee James Johnson could be starting before long.
Fifth place: J.R. Smith, New York Knicks
The issue isn't if the Knicks should bench Smith. The real question is, why didn't it happen sooner? By benching Smith now after juvenile antics, the Knicks are conveniently trying to distract fans from the actual culprit: he can't score.
Smith
Among the 98 players with a usage rate north of 20 percent and at least 750 minutes played, Smith ranks dead last in true shooting percentage (45.5 percent). The only thing more poisonous than a player who can't score is one that thinks he can.
With knee issues sapping his mobility, he should be reduced to a catch-and-shoot weapon, but the problem is that he believes he's Steve Nash, not Steve Novak. On-court/off-court data from NBA.com suggests that the Knicks are better off on both ends of the floor without him, confirming what our eyes tell us.
ill
Superstar
Dishonorable mentions:
Mayo
O.J. Mayo, Milwaukee Bucks: Mayo's numbers don't scream LVP on the surface, as he's posted a lukewarm 11.7 PER with an above-average 37.9 percent conversion rate from downtown. But then you realize that the Bucks have been outscored by 15.5 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor and just 1.7 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench. In other words, the Bucks aren't a tanking team with Mayo.
Hinrich
Kirk Hinrich, Chicago Bulls: Not many players can make D.J. Augustin look like an All-Star by comparison. Enter Hinrich. The guy is shooting 29 percent over his last 14 games, ever since the Bulls thumped the Miami Heat by 20 points in early December. He can't get into the paint and can't create enough separation to open up passing lanes so he's just brutal to watch run an offense at this stage in his career. Among players with at least 30 minutes per game, Hinrich owns the worst PER at 9.1. I can't believe I'm saying this, but, more Augustin, please.
Zeller
Cody Zeller, Charlotte Bobcats: Remember when people thought he was the next LaMarcus Aldridge? Let's pump the brakes on that. Zeller has been atrocious as a shooter, converting just 26 percent of his 87 midrange jumpers this season. He has yet to make a 3-pointer, despite the hype that he was the best stretch 4 in the draft. It's early, but the No. 4 pick has been a mess on both ends of the floor.
Green
Willie Green, Los Angeles Clippers: If it weren't for his longtime pal Chris Paul, Green may be out of the league. He can knock down a corner 3 every once in a while, but other than that, he's a liability on the offensive end. The Clippers' starting lineup with J.J. Redikk has scored 109.4 points per 100 possessions this season, per NBA.com. With Green? 97.7 points per 100 possessions. It's hard to make an offense that stars Paul and Blake Griffin look mediocre, but Green works wonders.
Fisher
Derek Fisher, Oklahoma City Thunder: Like the guy ranked No. 1 on this list, his leadership qualities must outweigh his on-court contributions, which makes you wonder why he doesn't just put on a three-piece suit and join the coaching staff already. He's woefully inefficient with a 50.1 percent true shooting percentage, but unlike other players on this list, he knows his limits for the most part. At 39, he's washed up like a beached whale.
Mayo
O.J. Mayo, Milwaukee Bucks: Mayo's numbers don't scream LVP on the surface, as he's posted a lukewarm 11.7 PER with an above-average 37.9 percent conversion rate from downtown. But then you realize that the Bucks have been outscored by 15.5 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor and just 1.7 points per 100 possessions with him on the bench. In other words, the Bucks aren't a tanking team with Mayo.
Hinrich
Kirk Hinrich, Chicago Bulls: Not many players can make D.J. Augustin look like an All-Star by comparison. Enter Hinrich. The guy is shooting 29 percent over his last 14 games, ever since the Bulls thumped the Miami Heat by 20 points in early December. He can't get into the paint and can't create enough separation to open up passing lanes so he's just brutal to watch run an offense at this stage in his career. Among players with at least 30 minutes per game, Hinrich owns the worst PER at 9.1. I can't believe I'm saying this, but, more Augustin, please.
Zeller
Cody Zeller, Charlotte Bobcats: Remember when people thought he was the next LaMarcus Aldridge? Let's pump the brakes on that. Zeller has been atrocious as a shooter, converting just 26 percent of his 87 midrange jumpers this season. He has yet to make a 3-pointer, despite the hype that he was the best stretch 4 in the draft. It's early, but the No. 4 pick has been a mess on both ends of the floor.
Green
Willie Green, Los Angeles Clippers: If it weren't for his longtime pal Chris Paul, Green may be out of the league. He can knock down a corner 3 every once in a while, but other than that, he's a liability on the offensive end. The Clippers' starting lineup with J.J. Redikk has scored 109.4 points per 100 possessions this season, per NBA.com. With Green? 97.7 points per 100 possessions. It's hard to make an offense that stars Paul and Blake Griffin look mediocre, but Green works wonders.
Fisher
Derek Fisher, Oklahoma City Thunder: Like the guy ranked No. 1 on this list, his leadership qualities must outweigh his on-court contributions, which makes you wonder why he doesn't just put on a three-piece suit and join the coaching staff already. He's woefully inefficient with a 50.1 percent true shooting percentage, but unlike other players on this list, he knows his limits for the most part. At 39, he's washed up like a beached whale.
