Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)
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FYI...Starting tomorrow, I won't be able to post until next Saturday. I'll be away for job training for the week.
who_better_than_me
Time to go!!
James Harden needs to grow up
Is James Harden someone who can anchor a championship team? Can he pair with Dwight Howard to win rings?
With the exception of a healthy Dwyane Wade, Harden is regarded as the league's best shooting guard. Harden also is one of the top pure scorers in the game today at any position. But there's a darker side to Harden's game, one that does little to engender a team concept and ultimately just makes him look selfish. Because of that, theHouston Rockets and their fans are fair to ask whether Harden is beginning to resemble a player maligned as a selfish, ball-hogging player -- the New York Knicks' Carmelo Anthony.
And yet, for all the potential negatives evident in that comparison, Harden's skills are good enough to help the Rockets win the Western Conference if he can elevate his overall maturity and leadership to match his on-court skills.
Breaking down Harden
It is important to recognize the various ways we can evaluate Harden. He is a rare talent on a distinct path, a player who began his NBA career as a role player, a "glue" guy, playing as both a ball mover and an assist man/playmaker. In time, his role evolved toward being more of a bench scorer, something he adapted to because his team in Oklahoma City needed it.
But it was clear that he longed to be "the man" for a team, and deservedly so. General manager Sam Presti has been criticized for trading Harden and breaking up his trio of star perimeter players, but the truth is, Presti had to do it. Harden now is proving he could do exactly what he always thought he could; meanwhile, OKC has gone 100-34 without him.
Look at it as a win-win deal. Had Presti not moved Harden and had somehow managed to keep him and pay him, it's entirely possible OKC would not have won as many games as they did last season or this season (even with Russell Westbrook's injury). And Harden certainly would not be the star that he has become.
Harden also has usurped Kobe Bryant's title as the best "bad shot" maker in the game. Harden routinely makes contested shots on drives and jumpers. Remember, LeBron James and Kevin Durant are significantly taller than Harden, so while they might be covered as closely, their shots are not contested as tightly as Harden's. I see an awful lot of bad shots in the NBA on a nightly basis, with many or most of those shots ending up as misses. Harden is the one man who makes enough of these bad shots that they can't even be termed as such. And factoring in the fouls he draws and his production from these bad shots, they're actually just his "average" shot these days.
The dark side of Harden's game
Harden is now a complete ball stopper. What's worse is he plays on a team with so many of them, which is possibly one reason why he holds on to the ball so long himself.
Many of the bad shots he takes come after Harden catches the ball with more than 12 seconds on the clock. At that point, it's often the case that no one else touches the ball. The Harden we saw in OKC could move the ball fluidly, but that guy would get fewer shots. This version seems wholly afraid that if he passes the ball away quickly early in a possession, he won't get it back.
Possession after possession, Harden catches and holds the ball, maybe adding a shot fake and some jabs or pivots before he makes a move. According to NBA.com/stats, among all NBA players who are not point guards, only LeBron James has had the ball in his hands more than Harden this season. Correspondingly, Miami has the best offense in the league, and Houston is fifth, so it works for each team.
But Miami also ranks third in assist rate, while Houston is 25th. This disparity is a related to the amount of free throws Houston earns, because they don't accumulate assists when getting fouled while shooting unless the shot is made. It is emblematic though of how Houston tries to space the floor and isolate the best matchup even more than Miami.
However, there have been a number of games where the ball just does not move well, and Houston's offense gets bogged down if Harden can't dominate his defender. Coach Kevin McHale frequently asks his guys to get the ball "poppin'," but their instincts are to just take their man and then make a play. Harden leads the charge on this front. Given that he is such a gifted playmaker, it does work well most nights.
But the fact that Harden now is playing more like Anthony should send up a red flag. Anthony's reputation is that of a killer scorer but not much else. Harden is that guy now as well, famously taking off multiple plays -- even quarters or games -- on defense, and completely lacking in his willingness to set an example of how to play hard. Leadership can come in many forms, and Harden, like Anthony, only fulfills the "best scorer on the team" role that some leaders fill. But neither guy is gifted at inspiring teammates, on the court or off of it, which leaders are also expected to do.
Instead, Harden is now known for his moodiness, likely the result of the challenges a new superstar faces nightly on the floor, as well as the weight stars feel when their teams lose. Those issues have plagued Howard for years, and together he and Harden have not figured out how to join forces and become a duo that can overcome them. Not yet, at least.
Harden must take responsibility
Where Harden and Anthony differ is an important distinction. Where Anthony always has been the non-inspiring ball stopper, Harden was once someone totally different. As Harden matures in his starring role -- perhaps after some playoff disappointments -- there is every reason to believe he can learn how to merge the old Harden with the new one.
If he left Oklahoma City to be "the man," get paid like "the man," and garner the attention "the man" gets, he must be ready to assume the responsibilities that come with that title in the NBA. As it stands today, though, he isn't even close.
He has a brighter future than Anthony precisely because we know he has it in him to fit pieces together better, to move the ball better, and to play much better defense. When Harden is locked in, he can be hard to score on and someone who can make plays on the ball with steals and deflections.
We have seen James and Wade mature into men who know how to step up or step back, depending on the situation, in order to help the Heat win 11 of their 12 playoff series since coming together in South Beach. They were able to survive some of those tight series when all seemed lost. That can be attributed to chemistry as much as talent.
However, Houston currently does not have that kind of chemistry. That doesn't mean they won't ever develop it. It could even manifest itself this season at some point. It won't be Howard that makes that happen -- it must be Harden. He's the guy who must make more passes when teammates have better scoring opportunities, especially Howard. He's the player who needs to prove to his teammates he can be counted on to defend as well as score in crunch time.
Harden must step up and be the star who takes the blame sometimes after a loss, rather than let Howard or a lesser player take the criticism. To be a leader, Harden must be a scorer, a screener, a passer and a defender. Indeed, he has the talent to do all that and be the best player on, arguably, the best team in the league.
We saw LeBron accomplish this in recent years, and we are seeing Durant doing it now. Harden needs to aspire to be this kind of player, because only then does Houston have a chance to stand up to next to San Antonio, Oklahoma City or Miami in a seven-game series.
Best All-Star teams by peak value
A few weeks ago, I used my wins above replacement player (WARP) rating to rank NBA teams if every player were in their prime. That same concept can be used to rank All-Star teams and provide one answer to the question of which one has boasted the best collection of talent, at least since 1978 when full player stats were first tracked.
The method is simple. Each player's score is based on the best season of his career by WARP -- including projections for the remainder of this season -- and only players who actually were on the roster in that game count (so no Kobe Bryant for the current West squad). Here are the top 10 teams, which have a decidedly Western slant.
10. 2004 West (221.5)
As we saw when we looked at prime value rankings for this season's NBA teams, Andrei Kirilenko's 2003-04 season (19.9 WARP) is one of the great unrepeated performances of all time. Since it was his only All-Star appearance, the 2004 Western Conference roster gets the benefit. Kirilenko was one of eight West players with at least 17 WARP in a season. The others -- Ray Allen (17.8), Kobe Bryant (20.4), Tim Duncan (23.4), Steve Francis (18.0), Kevin Garnett (26.3), Dirk Nowitzki (19.7) and Shaquille O'Neal (25.7) -- are a bit more predictable.
9. 2005 West (221.7)
Obviously, a similar group but the Francis-Tracy McGrady (23.5) swap and the emergence of the Suns' trio of Shawn Marion (19.2), Steve Nash (17.8) and Amar'e Stoudemire (16.0) gives 2005 the slight edge.
8. 2002 West (223.2)
Karl Malone (20.5) did not play due to injury, but wasn't replaced on the roster, so he still counts as one of six MVPs on the roster along with Bryant, Duncan, Garnett, Nash and Nowitzki. As a result, the 2002 West roster was still elite despite the presence of Wally Szczerbiak (5.8 peak WARP), one of the weakest All-Star selections.
7. 2006 West (224.3)
Incremental upgrades with the addition of first-time All-Star Pau Gasol (15.9) and a second appearance for the perpetually underrated Elton Brand (18.9).
6. 2001 West (225.4)
The last appearance by David Robinson (27.3) boosts the 2001 West team ahead of its successors. Robinson was one of seven players on the roster with a prime season of at least 20 WARP, along with Bryant, Duncan, Garnett, Malone, Jason Kidd (21.2) and Gary Payton (20.0).
5. 1996 West (227.8)
All-Star coach George Karl had his choice of Hall of Famers throughout the 1996 game. Seven players from the roster -- Malone, Payton, Robinson, Hakeem Olajuwon (24.8), Charles Barkley (23.1), John Stockton (22.5) and Clyde Drexler (18.5) -- have already been inducted to the Hall, with Kidd a lock to join them and Dikembe Mutombo (14.1) and 2014 finalist Mitch Richmond (12.9) candidates in their own right.
4. 1992 West (229.2)
The 1992 West roster finishes this high on a technicality. Because fans voted Magic Johnson a starter after his retirement due to HIV, the West had 13 players on the roster. If we take out Magic (23.8), the 1992 West slips all the way to 25th. But Johnson did take the court, memorably winning MVP, and the roster included seven other Hall of Famers.
3. 2003 West (232.0)
Because so many West teams in the early 2000s appear on this list, a single player can make a difference. In this case, 2003 wins out because of Payton's final All-Star appearance. This was also an unusually deep roster where 11 of 12 players reached at least 14 WARP at prime, with Yao Ming (11.3) the lone exception.
2. 1998 West (233.0)
The original great West roster was put together in 1998, when Duncan made his first of 14 All-Star appearances, giving the conference six MVPs in the last All-Star Game before the lockout.
1. 2000 West (248.7)
By the time the All-Star Game returned after a one-year absence due to the lockout, the West was stacked beyond any other roster in All-Star history. In fact, the difference in prime value between the 2000 West team and its 1998 counterpart is larger than the difference between 1998 and the 13th team on this list. The 2000 team is also tops on the list of combined All-Star appearances, with 124. (The top three by this criteria match the WARP list.) The big addition for the West was Chris Webber (18.1) replacing Mitch Richmond (12.9), along with Stockton returning to the All-Star Game after missing it in 1998 due to microfracture knee surgery. The result was the most talented roster in All-Star history.
The best East team: 1990 (217.4)
So, if the top 10 teams were all from the West, which was the best East squad? That honor goes to the 1990 team, which was led by Michael Jordan (27.6), Charles Barkley (23.1) and Larry Bird (22.3). The 1990 East team ranks seventh with 105 combined All-Star appearances, but 13th by WARP.
The best '80s team: 1988 East (213.1)
No 1980s team cracks the top 16. A smaller league meant WARP was less concentrated among the top players in the '80s, putting those teams at something of a disadvantage. The 1988 East team checks in at No. 17. In addition to the aforementioned Jordan-Barkley-Bird trio, the 1988 East team featured eight Hall of Famers, but not quite as much elite depth as the best West squads.
The worst modern team: 2001 East (158.0)
The worst teams in the rankings are all from the 1970s, for an obvious reason. Aging players like John Havlicek don't get full credit for their performances before the WARP era. Taking them out, the lowest-ranking team is the 2001 East, which featured players who combined for just 46 other All-Star appearances. The roster was weakened because Grant Hill (21.1) and Alonzo Mourning (19.1) sat out with injuries and were replaced by Antonio Davis (5.0) and Anthony Mason (10.2). Yet the East still outscored the West 41-21 in the fourth quarter to pull off the unlikely upset.
Deepest team: 2011 West
Believe it or not, Carmelo Anthony (13.0 WARP) scores as the worst prime player on the 2011 roster. He still rated better than nearly half the East roster that year. The next best "worst" player is Mark Jackson (11.8) on the 1989 East.
The best combined game: 1996 (436.2)
In terms of total star power, nothing surpasses the 1996 game in San Antonio, which featured the No. 5 overall roster above and one of the 10 best East squads in that span. Of the great '90s players, 1996 was the only year where nobody was absent due to injury or retirement. The only downside was the horrendous teal-heavy jerseys.
This year's teams: West 201.4, East 158.4
Right now, this year's West roster ranks 17th. That will only go up as the West players who haven't yet reached their prime -- most notably Anthony Davis and Damian Lillard -- continue to improve their best WARP score. By contrast, the East squad ranks ahead of only the 2001 East among post-1980 teams. While that figure, too, will improve, this year's East roster isn't nearly as star-studded as previous incarnations that featured Garnett.
COMPLETE ALL-STAR ROSTER RANKINGS
YearConferenceWARPAll-Stars
2000West248.7124
1998West233.0117
2003West232.0109
1992West229.298
1996West227.8108
2001West225.4101
2006West224.3106
2002West223.2102
2005West221.7104
2004West221.5100
2011West219.480
1990East217.4105
1993West217.387
1995West216.396
2005East214.288
1988East213.199
2011East212.094
1994West211.787
1989East211.691
2002East209.989
2006East209.192
1996East208.480
2009West208.498
2007West208.299
1987East205.2107
2013West203.572
2014West201.453
1993East201.191
2012West200.869
2010East200.781
1990West200.680
2009East199.986
2010West199.977
1991West199.484
1986East198.7100
1986West197.997
2008West197.196
2007East196.786
2008East196.288
1985East196.194
1997West195.784
1988West194.593
1997East194.366
2003East194.178
1995East192.170
1985West190.087
1992East189.475
2012East185.669
1994East182.653
1998East182.358
1982West181.287
1991East180.182
1989West178.093
1983East177.381
1987West176.981
1982East174.782
1984West173.479
2013East172.462
2004East171.462
1983West171.378
2000East167.866
1984East159.174
2014East158.454
2001East158.058
1980West154.171
1980East152.574
1979West146.068
1981East145.762
1981West141.378
1978East130.980
1978West124.050
1979East120.170
Five trades I'd like to see happen
Now the real fun begins.
The trade deadline is Thursday, which means front offices around the league weren't taking the All-Star Weekend off along with many of the players. Quite the contrary.
Though last season's deadline came and went with mostly smoke and little fire -- J.J. Redikk was the biggest name dealt, and he barely played for his new team -- expect a fairly busy week considering that much of the league's marquee teams have flopped so far this season. Given the strengths and weaknesses of each team and the overall landscape of the league, what deals do I want to see?
Here are five of them.
New Orleans Pelicans receive: Tyson Chandler, Beno Udrih and Metta World Peace
New York Knicks receive: Eric Gordon and Greg Stiemsma
Why I want to see it: The Pelicans' defense has been horrible this season, surrendering the fifth-most points per possession to opponents. Chandler can help both as Anthony Davis' tutor and as the paint protector that they sorely need.
No, he's no longer the same Chandler who won the Defensive Player of the Year back in 2010-11 or even the one who helped anchor a top-10 defense in New Orleans before that. But the 31-year-old could probably use a change of scenery after he has publicly called out coach Mike Woodson's defensive "strategy" this season. Udrih and World Peace aren't exactly thrilled with their situations, either. Consider this their life raft out of Jim Dolan's sinking ship.
It's no secret that the Knicks need to get younger. Gordon provides a long-term answer at shooting guard, and perhaps more importantly, he also gives the Knicks a reason not to give J.R. Smith 30 minutes a night. Gordon doesn't have a healthy track record, but the same goes for Chandler. The difference is that, for the same price as Chandler, Gordon is entering his prime at age 25, not leaving it.
It'll be hard for the Knicks to find much value in exchange for Chandler's contract, which runs through next season at $14.6 million, so taking a chance on Gordon may be their best bet. He's in a clogged backcourt with Tyreke Evans, and the Knicks desperately need to infuse young talent alongside Carmelo Anthony. Gordon's contract runs longer than they'd like (Gordon has a 2015-16 player option), but beggars can't be choosers.
Portland Trail Blazers receive: Omer Asik, Omri Casspi and Donatas Motiejunas
Houston Rockets receive: Wesley Matthews and Meyers Leonard
Why I want to see it: This helps both Western Conference powerhouses address their weaknesses without sacrificing too much of their strengths.
Word is the Blazers aren't bullish on Asik and they'd hate to mess with the on-court chemistry of their starting lineup, but they're kidding themselves if they think they can challenge for the West title without an upgrade on the defensive end. They rank 23rd on defense this season and 26th since the New Year. When healthy, Asik is one of the top five rim protectors in the NBA, and he'd beef up a frontcourt that just lost Joel Freeland for at least a month with an MCL sprain. They need help.
The Blazers would hate to lose Matthews, but this is a golden buy-low, sell-high opportunity for an unbalanced squad. Though Matthews has been instrumental to their relentless offense, such a deal wouldn't remove the franchise pillars of Damian Lillard, Nic Batum and LaMarcus Aldridge. Rookie C.J. McCollum has recently looked fantastic after missing the beginning of the season due to a foot injury and would help fill the void along with Dorell Wright. Plus, no owner is better equipped to take on the $15 million that Asik is owed next season than billionaire Paul Allen.
The Rockets would net the sweet-shooting Matthews, who is also a physical perimeter defender -- an area that has been Houston's Achilles' heel this season. He's had somewhat of a down year defensively (Synergy rates him as well below average thus far), but he's typically been better on that end of the floor. As a veteran 3-point marksman with defensive chops, he'd fit in nicely for the Rockets' big push.
Philadelphia 76ers receive: Harrison Barnes, Marreese Speights and Festus Ezeli
Golden State Warriors receive: Thaddeus Young and Brandon Davies
Why I want to see it: Barnes needs to go somewhere with lowered expectations. Young needs to go somewhere with higher expectations. Barnes has strangled the Warriors' offense this season with his ball-stopping ways both on the perimeter and in the post. The Warriors score a pathetic 99.7 points per 100 possessions with him on the floor this season, according to NBA.com. And the scary thing is that most of those lineups feature offensively inclined players Stephen Curry and David Lee. That's darn near impossible to do.
When it comes to Barnes, Golden State GM Bob Myers might have to save his coach Mark Jackson from himself. Barnes is one of eight players over the past two seasons to be awarded at least 25 minutes per game while posting a PER below 11. You don't want to see the others on the list. The bottom line is that the 21-year-old Barnes is woefully overmatched in a win-now environment like Golden State's. Philadelphia could develop him in ways that Golden State can't afford to try in a championship hunt.
The Warriors would acquire one of the game's better two-way players in Young, who can guard multiple positions (important for a team featuring Lee) and help spread the floor. Young always has been a bit underrated in Philadelphia as a versatile weapon and willing defender, a description that could've applied to his former teammate and current Warrior Andre Iguodala. Young deserves better than the tire fire in the City of Brotherly Love. Plus, sending Speights back to Philadelphia makes all the sense in the world.
Memphis Grizzlies receive: Arron Afflalo and Jason Maxiell
Orlando Magic receive: Ed Davis, Tayshaun Prince and a 2017 protected first-round pick (top eight)
Why I want to see it: The Grizzlies need to fill a crater at the small forward position and time is running out. With Dallas and Phoenix refusing to cooperate with its cause, Memphis currently has a 40 percent chance of making the playoffs, per Hollinger Playoff Odds. Afflalo both fills a need and aligns nicely with the Grizzlies' grit-and-grind ethos.
The borderline All-Star would come at a cost, however. The Magic likely have a host of suitors for Afflalo's services, and absorbing the swollen contract of the Player Formally Known As (Tayshaun) Prince won't be high on their priority list. Throw in a young talent like Ed Davis, who will be a restricted free agent this summer, and a future first-round pick? Now you have Orlando GM Rob Hennigan's attention.
Afflalo's contract appeared to be an albatross last season when the wing forgot how to make 3-pointers, but 2012-13 proved to be more fluke than for real. Afflalo has been lights-out from downtown for most of his NBA career, and the Grizzlies rank dead last in both 3-point makes and attempts. Afflalo would help the Grizzlies acknowledge the advent of the 3-point line.
If the Magic aren't doing backflips over the Davis/first-round-pick package, the Grizzlies could put the 24-year-old Kosta Koufos on the table and go from there. However, small-market teams should be excessively possessive of a productive 7-footer on a bargain deal ($3 million next season). Overall, Memphis and Orlando have both the pieces and the motivation to get the deal done. Let's make it happen.
New York Knicks receive: Kyle Lowry and Dwight Buycks
Toronto Raptors receive: Tim Hardaway Jr., Raymond Felton, Cole Aldrich and a 2018 lottery-protected first-round pick
Why I want to see it: Let's just get this over with, shall we? The Knicks are an absolute mess at point guard, and Lowry would garner instant cult status in New York with his gutsy flair and bulldog intensity on both ends of the floor. The Knicks won't want to part with two long-term assets, but if you're going to acquire the East's best point guard right now, you're going to have to pay up.
Yes, the Knicks will risk losing Lowry to free agency over the summer, but there are two reasons why they shouldn't be worried on that front. One, the Knicks play in New York, which is a pretty big deal. Two, they'd own his Bird rights, which is gold for a capped-out team like the Knicks.
The Knicks can't dream of bringing in a talent like Lowry on the open market unless they possess the precious Bird rights that allow teams over the cap to re-sign their own free agents. Lowry, who boasts a 20.1 PER, is both younger and better than Felton has ever been, especially on the defensive end, where Felton unfurls a red carpet to the rim. Adding Lowry could make the Knicks the third-best team in the East, even if that's a mostly cosmetic achievement.
The deal would add to Masai Ujiri's stockpile of Knicks draft picks while giving the Raptors an exciting young player in Hardaway. The Raptors already own the Knicks' 2016 first-rounder and the team's 2017 second-rounder from last summer's Andrea Bargnani trade, so it's easy to see why Jim Dolan would be reluctant to send yet another pick over the border. However, tacking lottery protection to the pick would ease some of their concerns in the event the Knicks don't turn it around soon.
Orlando Magic receive: Ed Davis, Tayshaun Prince and a 2017 protected first-round pick (top eight)
Why I want to see it: The Grizzlies need to fill a crater at the small forward position and time is running out. With Dallas and Phoenix refusing to cooperate with its cause, Memphis currently has a 40 percent chance of making the playoffs, per Hollinger Playoff Odds. Afflalo both fills a need and aligns nicely with the Grizzlies' grit-and-grind ethos.
The borderline All-Star would come at a cost, however. The Magic likely have a host of suitors for Afflalo's services, and absorbing the swollen contract of the Player Formally Known As (Tayshaun) Prince won't be high on their priority list. Throw in a young talent like Ed Davis, who will be a restricted free agent this summer, and a future first-round pick? Now you have Orlando GM Rob Hennigan's attention.
Afflalo's contract appeared to be an albatross last season when the wing forgot how to make 3-pointers, but 2012-13 proved to be more fluke than for real. Afflalo has been lights-out from downtown for most of his NBA career, and the Grizzlies rank dead last in both 3-point makes and attempts. Afflalo would help the Grizzlies acknowledge the advent of the 3-point line.
If the Magic aren't doing backflips over the Davis/first-round-pick package, the Grizzlies could put the 24-year-old Kosta Koufos on the table and go from there. However, small-market teams should be excessively possessive of a productive 7-footer on a bargain deal ($3 million next season). Overall, Memphis and Orlando have both the pieces and the motivation to get the deal done. Let's make it happen.
New York Knicks receive: Kyle Lowry and Dwight Buycks
Toronto Raptors receive: Tim Hardaway Jr., Raymond Felton, Cole Aldrich and a 2018 lottery-protected first-round pick
Why I want to see it: Let's just get this over with, shall we? The Knicks are an absolute mess at point guard, and Lowry would garner instant cult status in New York with his gutsy flair and bulldog intensity on both ends of the floor. The Knicks won't want to part with two long-term assets, but if you're going to acquire the East's best point guard right now, you're going to have to pay up.
Yes, the Knicks will risk losing Lowry to free agency over the summer, but there are two reasons why they shouldn't be worried on that front. One, the Knicks play in New York, which is a pretty big deal. Two, they'd own his Bird rights, which is gold for a capped-out team like the Knicks.
The Knicks can't dream of bringing in a talent like Lowry on the open market unless they possess the precious Bird rights that allow teams over the cap to re-sign their own free agents. Lowry, who boasts a 20.1 PER, is both younger and better than Felton has ever been, especially on the defensive end, where Felton unfurls a red carpet to the rim. Adding Lowry could make the Knicks the third-best team in the East, even if that's a mostly cosmetic achievement.
The deal would add to Masai Ujiri's stockpile of Knicks draft picks while giving the Raptors an exciting young player in Hardaway. The Raptors already own the Knicks' 2016 first-rounder and the team's 2017 second-rounder from last summer's Andrea Bargnani trade, so it's easy to see why Jim Dolan would be reluctant to send yet another pick over the border. However, tacking lottery protection to the pick would ease some of their concerns in the event the Knicks don't turn it around soon.
How key storylines might play out
The NBA resumes play after the All-Star break on Tuesday night, and it's a two-month sprint -- or sometimes slog -- to the finish line of the regular season.
Based on trends from the first half, here are four outcomes we might see the rest of the way.
1. Miami makes a run at the No. 1 seed in the Eastern Conference
The Indiana Pacers have made home-court advantage throughout the Eastern Conference playoffs their mission since the start of the season, and for months they've been penciled into that spot. But after two Indiana losses in the last three games, the Miami Heat enter the stretch run just 2 1/2 games back, having picked up half a game on the Pacers since Indiana's win at Bankers Life Fieldhouse on Dec. 18.
Remember, it was this time a year ago that the Heat got serious and reeled off 27 consecutive wins to lock down the NBA's best record. While Miami isn't as healthy now, a strong month could put the Heat in position to catch the Pacers by their matchup on March 26 in Indiana. The Pacers, and star Paul George, have regressed a bit toward the mean since starting 16-1, winning at a .685 clip and giving the Heat the opportunity to make up some ground.
Miami has to make a move quickly. With zero pressure from behind -- the Heat are assured a top-two seed -- Erik Spoelstra's strategy could change dramatically if Miami falls farther behind Indiana. At that point, it would probably make more sense to conserve minutes and energy for the playoffs and take a conservative approach to the mileage on Dwyane Wade's knees.
2. The battle for home court in the opening round comes down to the end
While it's not as dramatic as the battle for the No. 1 seed, the No. 4 and No. 5 seeds in both conferences figure to be hotly contested down the stretch, with the victor getting a significant edge in a possible first-round matchup against the loser.
There are five East teams jockeying for position behind the Pacers and Heat. After the Toronto Raptors, who have the best chance of winning the Atlantic Division and claiming the third seed, my playoff simulations show the other four teams -- the Atlanta Hawks, Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls and Washington Wizards -- are separated by less than two games on average.
Washington is the favorite but earns home court less than half the time, while the other three teams are pretty much evenly matched. In such a tight race, scheduling could be key, and the Nets (No. 28), Raptors (29) and Wizards (30) have the NBA's three easiest slates over the remainder of the regular season.
Because a healthy L.A. Clippers squad is likely to claim the third seed and the Golden State Warriors have slipped off the pace, the West battle for No. 4 will likely come down to the Houston Rockets and the Portland Trail Blazers. Since the Rockets win an average of 53.5 games in simulations and Portland 52.9, those two teams could provide enough last-minute drama on their own.
3. A trade swings the final playoff spot in the East
The eighth and final playoff spot in the East might be an even tighter battle. Simulations show the Charlotte Bobcats and Detroit Pistons both averaging 36 wins, with the New York Knicks not far behind at 35. Charlotte and Detroit make the playoffs in slightly more than 40 percent of simulations, with New York doing so almost 30 percent of the time.
Given those razor-thin margins, one of the teams could separate itself from the pack by improving before Thursday's trade deadline. The Bobcats, trying to make the playoffs for just the second time in their existence, have reportedly been aggressive in pursuing a move.
Meanwhile, a lack of assets hasn't prevented the Knicks from being tied to a series of valuable players, most recently Atlanta's Jeff Teague (as ESPN's Marc Stein reported Monday).
While Charlotte has overachieved, the other two teams continue to confound. The Pistons followed up an impressive win over the San Antonio Spurs in John Loyer's debut as interim head coach with a disappointing loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers in their final game before the All-Star break. Meanwhile, New York actually sports a plus-8.1 differential in its last 10 games thanks to a series of blowouts. Only the Clippers (plus-10.4) have been better in the last three weeks. Yet the Knicks have gone just 5-5 in that span, making up precious little ground in the playoff race and fueling speculation about a coaching change of their own.
4. The NBA's worst get even worse
In a presentation at the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference in 2012, Adam Gold reported that NBA lottery teams see their winning percentages drop from 37.5 percent of their games to just 32.0 percent after being eliminated from playoff contention.
Because of the woeful East, the Milwaukee Bucks -- still just 13 games back in the loss column -- and Philadelphia 76ers may not be eliminated for a while, but they've been looking ahead to next season for months. The results bear that out. Somehow, Milwaukee and Philadelphia got even less competitive over the three weeks before the All-Star break. In that span, the Bucks were outscored by 11.8 points per game, and the Sixers were even less competitive, posting a minus-15.9 differential in large part thanks to losing by a combined 88 points last week to the Clippers and Warriors.
Over a full season, just two teams have been outscored by at least 13 points per game: the 2011-12 Charlotte Bobcats (7-59, minus-13.9) and the 1992-93 Dallas Mavericks (11-71, minus-15.2).
Philadelphia has the potential to drop even lower if first-year GM Sam Hinkie can trade starters Spencer Hawes, Evan Turner and Thaddeus Young. While Milwaukee's most likely trade candidates (Caron Butler and Gary Neal) have been ineffective, Hawes and Young are two of just three 76ers with more than 0.4 wins above replacement player, along with rookie Michael Carter-Williams. Behind them are a host of players replacement-level or much worse.
You'll recall that the 2011-12 Bobcats finished the season with 23 consecutive losses. A similar streak is a possibility for the Sixers if their good fortune in close games (6-2 in games decided by three points or fewer) turns south.
How would LeBron and CP3 work?
LeBron James and Chris Paul on the same team? As my ESPN colleagues Brian Windhorst and Ramona Shelburne report Wednesday, it's a possibility next season. Since James and Paul have teamed up only to help USA Basketball win gold in the 2008 and 2012 Olympics, imagining how the Los Angeles Clippers might play with James in place of Blake Griffin requires some imagination. That's where my SCHOENE projection system comes in.
Using the same methodology that generated this year's preseason NBA projections, I projected a possible 2014-15 Clippers roster based on player stats from the previous three seasons and how similar players developed at the same age. Aside from adding James, I left the rotation otherwise intact, plugging him directly into the 36 minutes per game Griffin has averaged this season.
Based on all that, SCHOENE projects the Clippers winning between 59 and 60 games. And while that might not sound like much, keep in mind that projection systems are conservative by design. Only the San Antonio Spurs were projected to win more than 55 games this season, and just two teams in the past five years have had better projections -- the 2008-09 Los Angeles Lakers and 2011-12 Miami Heat, both of whom went on to win the championship.
Outstanding offense
James and Paul are two of the league's top offensive players, so it's no surprise that the Clippers' offense would look outstanding with both of them. SCHOENE projects the team would score 114.5 points per 100 possessions, which would surpass the Heat's league-leading 113.9 offensive rating this season and compare to their 114.9 mark from 2012-13.
Clippers projections
PlayerMPGPPGRPGAPG
LeBron James3624.57.56.4
Chris Paul3518.04.19.3
J.J. Redikk2812.52.12.6
Jamal Crawford2512.41.82.3
DeAndre Jordan3610.411.9.7
Matt Barnes247.84.21.5
Jared Dudley206.72.01.3
Darren Collison155.81.32.2
Byron Mullens103.92.3.4
Reggie Bullock82.51.0.4
Ryan Hollins102.41.9.2
Willie Green72.4.6.4
Although SCHOENE can't entirely account for how James' numbers would change spending less time with the ball in his hands because of Paul's presence, pairing two great passers would allow the Clippers to improve on the league's third-best rate of assists per field goal. SCHOENE projects them to combine for 15.7 assists per game (see projected player stats at right) and the team as a whole to assist on nearly 70 percent of its field goals, which would rank just outside the all-time NBA top 10.
All those assists would benefit the Clippers' shooters. With 3-point threats J.J. Redikk, Jamal Crawford, Matt Barnes and Jared Dudley, the team already is set up well to take advantage of the open looks Paul and James would create. So SCHOENE projects the team to make more than 800 3-pointers, a mark that has been surpassed just seven times in NBA history.
As impressive as the Clippers' offense would be with James and Paul together, perhaps the greatest benefit would be an anticipated strength of Miami's James-Dwyane Wade pairing -- having one of the two players on the court at all times. That hasn't been the case this season, with Wade limited by knee injuries. Per NBA.com/Stats, the Heat are scoring 7.2 fewer points per 100 possessions when James is on the bench. (The Clippers, surprisingly, have seen their offensive rating drop by just 0.5 points per 100 possession when Paul is out of the lineup, allowing them to survive his injury.)
Average defense
SCHOENE sees the Clippers with James as a slightly above-average defense. Their projected 107.1 defensive rating would be similar to Miami's this season (107.0, but rising). In part, that reflects that James' coasting through the regular season has been more evident at the defensive end of the floor. The RAPM adjusted plus-minus calculated by Talking Practice blog actually has James as a slightly negative presence on defense (minus-0.5 points per 100 possessions) and worse than Griffin (plus-0.8).
At the team level, the Clippers would benefit from James' historically low foul rate, but they're likely to see their defensive rating go up in 2014-15 no matter who plays power forward. Thus far this season, the Clippers rate near average or worse in three of the four factors on defense and have been average at defending 2-point shots. Their defensive success (ninth in the league, allowing 1.2 fewer points per 100 possessions than league average) has been built entirely on 3-point defense. Opponents are shooting a league-low 32.7 percent from beyond the arc against the Clippers, a mark that's likely to regress to the mean.
More moves needed
The Clippers surely wouldn't call it quits for the offseason if they could deal for James. SCHOENE's projection assumes a backup frontcourt of Ryan Hollins and Byron Mullens, and the Clippers would have the opportunity to upgrade those weak positions in free agency. They'd have the taxpayer midlevel exception of $3.3 million available and might land players looking to team with Paul and James at bargain prices. The Clippers also have their first-round pick, likely to fall near the end of the round.
Clippers management would have to consider dealing one or more of their wings for a frontcourt player so that James doesn't have to play power forward full time (or trade defensive assignments with Barnes, who could fill a role similar to Shane Battier's with the Heat). Crawford could serve as a backup point guard (with James helping run the offense) if Darren Collison exercises his player option and heads elsewhere for more money after a solid season, but the Clippers would remain flush with wings. In fact, ESPN's Marc Stein reported Tuesday night that they're considering trading Dudley before this year's trade deadline.
Still, the Clippers are set up remarkably well to integrate James into the lineup should he find his way to L.A. Their style would be slightly different than the pace-and-space attack Miami has used to win two championships. With DeAndre Jordan in the middle, the Clippers wouldn't stretch the floor in quite the same way. But the Clippers have boasted one of the league's best offenses with two traditional big men in Jordan and Griffin, so Paul would have more space to operate with defenses leery of overhelping against his pick-and-rolls with James on the weak side. That's part of what would make a Paul-James pairing so difficult for opponents to stop.
Already, this season's Clippers are title contenders. Adding James to the mix might just make them future favorites.
http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/story/_/page/Grades-140220/trade-grades-trade-deadline-buzzer-beaters
@Skooby
Need this one hurr pleighboi
@Skooby
Need this one hurr pleighboi