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Teams most likely to return to playoffs
The first Super Bowl in the New York metropolitan area features two teams from far, far away. That is fitting because the Wests were best in 2013. While six of the eight NFL teams from the AFC West and NFC West finished with winning records, the other six divisions combined to produce just seven winning teams.
The timing is right for this Western revival as the NFL's scheduling rotation happens to pit AFC West against NFC West in 2014. As a result, the eight toughest schedules for 2014 belong to teams from these two Western divisions. Much will change by next season, of course, and 2013 records will not set expectations accurately across the board. But a run through some of the key variables provides an early read on which 2013 playoff teams have the best (and worst) shots at returning to the postseason.
I've ranked their chances one through 12 and consulted with an oddsmaker to get an outside perspective. It's looking like one of the No. 2 seeds could be vulnerable while the other heads into the offseason as a prohibitive favorite to return.
First off, a big thanks to Kevin Bradley, sportsbook manager at Bovada.lv, for producing 2014 playoff odds for the 12 teams in the 2013 field. I've dropped his odds into the chart at right for quick reference. He's got Denver and New England as nearly prohibitive favorites to return. Note that the Broncos were a No. 4 seed in 2011, the year before Peyton Manning's arrival. Their best pass-rusher (Von Miller) and pass protector (Ryan Clady) will also be back from injuries next season.
2014 Playoff Odds for 2013 Playoff Teams
Rank Team Odds
1 Broncos 1-5
2 Patriots 1-4
3 49ers 2-7
3 Seahawks 2-7
5 Packers 1-2
6 Colts 10-13
7 Saints 10-11
8 Bengals 6-5
9 Panthers 3-2
9 Chiefs 3-2
11 Eagles 7-4
12 Chargers 9-4
Source: Kevin Bradley of Bovada.lv
Odds reflect public perceptions as oddsmakers seek to draw equal betting on both sides, ensuring profits for the house by guarding against big losses. Odds are also a good starting point for conversation. I'm inclined to rank the Green Bay Packers' chances lower and the Indianapolis Colts' chances higher than Bradley ranked them, based on perceived threats within those teams' divisions.
The Carolina Panthers might be the best team facing an uphill fight in 2014. Bradley has the Panthers with 3-2 odds even though they won the NFC South, secured the No. 2 seed and will be returning a formidable core of players. I'm also downgrading the Panthers' chances in a division featuring two likely bounce-back teams: Tampa Bay and Atlanta will almost certainly be tougher.
My rankings below include home and road opponents. I've listed opponents in order of 2013 winning percentage to set general expectations for schedule strength. Remember, too, that the rankings reflect expectations for getting back into the playoffs. These aren't straight power rankings, in other words.
Home opponents (.508): Denver, Cincinnati, Miami, New York (Jets), Chicago, Detroit, Buffalo, Oakland
Road opponents (.523): Kansas City, Indianapolis, San Diego, Green Bay, New York (Jets), Buffalo, Minnesota
My early read: The Patriots have been one of the AFC's top two seeds four years running. They've proven over time an ability to win as long as Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are part of the equation. The team even went 10-5 with Matt Cassel starting at quarterback in 2008, albeit while posting the second-lowest strength of victory percentage (.403) for any Patriots team since realignment in 2002.
This past season was especially convincing. The Patriots had built their offense around receiving tight ends Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski, then advanced to the AFC Championship Game as a run-oriented team playing without either. New England went 6-1 in games decided by three or fewer points. That success rate in close games isn't sustainable, but neither should it be necessary in 2014. The Patriots have a full offseason to improve their offensive weaponry. They'll be better prepared.
Divisional outlook: Every other team in the AFC East should be better, particularly if Mike Pettine remains the Buffalo Bills' defensive coordinator. The Miami Dolphins are the most intriguing team. Personnel people love Ryan Tannehill. Jason Licht's hiring as general manager gives the Dolphins someone with first-hand knowledge of the Patriots' inner workings. That's a plus, but I don't see the Patriots ceding their position just yet.
Home opponents (.555): San Francisco, Kansas City, Indianapolis, Arizona, San Diego, Miami, Buffalo, Oakland
Road opponents (.586): Seattle, New England, Kansas City, Cincinnati, San Diego, New York (Jets), St. Louis, Oakland
My early read: Looking at the 2014 opponents makes me a little nervous for the Broncos. They didn't face many formidable defenses this past season. Their upcoming schedule includes seven games against teams that finished 2013 ranked among the top 10 in defensive expected points added (Seattle, Cincinnati, Arizona, San Francisco and Buffalo, plus two games against Kansas City). Every one of those defenses should be strong again.
Winning in Seattle and even St. Louis will not be easy. We all know about the Seahawks' home dominance, but the Rams can be dangerous as well. Their defensive front took apart New Orleans, turning Saints tight end Jimmy Graham into a chipper in pass protection. It's just hard to go against Manning when figuring the Broncos will welcome back Clady, Miller and multiple other starters from injury.
Divisional outlook: The AFC West will have a tougher time in 2014. Denver, Kansas City and San Diego combined to go 11-1 against the NFC East last season. Those teams' non-division records will take hit with the NFC West replacing the NFC East in the scheduling rotation. Denver could be better positioned than the other teams in the division to weather the storm.
Home opponents (.445): New England, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Baltimore, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Washington, Houston
Road opponents (.414): Denver, Pittsburgh, Dallas, Tennessee, New York (Giants), Jacksonville, Cleveland, Houston
My early read: The Colts went 9-1 in one-score games during Andrew Luck's rookie season. That made them a prime candidate for regression in 2013, but they beat the odds again. The Colts are now 16-2 in one-score games with Luck in the lineup. That counts their 45-44 comeback victory over Kansas City in the playoffs. Holes remain throughout the roster, notably on the offensive line. Will the close games start evening out? Indy has the NFL's easiest schedule based on 2013 opponent records, but I see the potential for volatility. Non-division opponents Baltimore and especially Washington could be quite a bit better.
Divisional outlook: Indy ranks high on this list largely because every other team in the AFC South needs to identify its starting quarterback. Thanks largely to that QB uncertainty, the Colts were the only team to go 6-0 against their own division this season. That isn't realistic in 2014. Houston could improve dramatically with some stability behind center. Ken Whisenhunt's arrival in Tennessee could make the Titans a tougher out. But Luck's presence keeps the Colts on top until further notice.
Home opponents (.542): Denver, San Francisco, Arizona, Green Bay, Dallas, St. Louis, New York (Giants), Oakland
Road opponents (.578): San Francisco, Carolina, Kansas City, Arizona, Philadelphia, San Diego, St. Louis, Washington
My early read: It seems ridiculous ranking the NFC champions only fourth on such a list, but the three teams ahead of Seattle have something in common. They're all from the AFC, and each of the three possesses a quarterback far better than any other in its division. Seattle has lots going for it, but life in the NFC is tougher. It's fair to wonder whether Seattle will be able to re-sign key players for the long term after reaching and possibly winning the Super Bowl, but most of the important roster decisions remain a year away. The Seahawks will return their core in 2014. They also figure to have Percy Harvin on the field more than this season.
Divisional outlook: NFC West teams went 30-10 outside the division. Arizona won in Seattle and barely missed the playoffs at 10-6. The Cardinals will improve on their offensive line and probably overall. Meanwhile, St. Louis enters the offseason with two first-round draft choices, including the No. 2 overall pick. It'll be a big surprise if Seattle misses the playoffs, but in this division, no one can take anything for granted.
Home opponents (.555): Seattle, Kansas City, Arizona, Philadelphia, San Diego, Chicago, St. Louis, Washington
Road opponents (.570): Seattle, Denver, New Orleans, Arizona, Dallas, St. Louis, New York (Giants), Oakland
My early read: The offense should be more consistent. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick should continue to improve with experience. Michael Crabtree should be healthy from the start of the season. Fullback Bruce Miller will return from injury. Second tight end Vance McDonald should take a big jump forward after struggling through his first season in a scheme with so many variations that repetitions are tough to come by. I could see some slippage on defense if NaVorro Bowman's knee is not right and Justin Smith finally shows his age, but the 49ers have enough talent to field one of the NFL's top defenses regardless.
Divisional outlook: The 49ers went 5-1 in the division last season. It's unlikely they'll repeat that record as the division continues to improve. As noted above regarding Seattle, a stacked division and deep conference are the biggest threats to San Francisco. This is and will continue to be a playoff-caliber team.
Home opponents (.469): Denver, Carolina, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Tennessee, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Atlanta
Road opponents (.438): Indianapolis, New Orleans, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Miami, Cleveland, Tampa Bay, Houston
My early read: The road schedule appears easy on paper, but take a closer look. The Ravens and Steelers will be tough as division opponents. Miami beat the Bengals this season. Tampa Bay and Houston have the talent to become quick-turnaround teams. Meanwhile, the Bengals will be breaking in new coordinators on both sides of the ball. Coach Marvin Lewis planned for the changes. Cincinnati might come out OK. Having one of the more talented rosters in the NFL will certainly help, but I don't necessarily think Andy Dalton will suddenly become consistent. He ranked 26th in Total QBR (39.7) and 23rd in passer rating (79.5) over the second half of the 2013 season.
Divisional outlook: The Bengals do not have the best quarterback in the division, but they have the best value at the position because Dalton is still playing under his rookie deal. That makes it tougher for their primary division rivals to address weaknesses. Baltimore needs help at wide receiver and in multiple spots along the offensive line. The Steelers no longer appear as adept at developing younger talent, a concern for a team that generally isn't going to chase free agents.
Home opponents (.477): Seattle, Carolina, Dallas, New York (Giants), St. Louis, Tennessee, Jacksonville, Washington
Road opponents (.480): San Francisco, Indianapolis, Arizona, Green Bay, Dallas, New York (Giants), Washington, Houston
My early read: I don't think Chip Kelly could have been much more impressive in his debut season as the Eagles' head coach. Winning 10 games and ranking fourth in scoring would have been tough enough with a stable quarterback situation and established program. Kelly had neither. Yet, while Philly could be in good position to repeat atop a flawed NFC East, the 2014 schedule serves up tougher defenses. The Eagles will play the four NFC West teams and Carolina. Two other opponents, Tennessee and Houston, have good defensive personnel. Some of the teams Philly lit up last season -- Oakland, San Diego and Chicago come to mind -- aren't on the upcoming schedule.
Divisional outlook: The Cowboys have salary-cap issues and probably won't break out of their .500 holding pattern. The Giants are rebuilding along the lines and changing their offensive scheme. The Redskins will be better, but their defense needs a ton of work.
Home opponents (.508): Carolina, San Francisco, Cincinnati, Green Bay, Baltimore, Minnesota, Atlanta, Tampa Bay
Road opponents (.430): Carolina, Chicago, Dallas, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Cleveland
My early read: New Orleans is 24-8 in its past 32 games under coach Sean Payton, a record that is impossible to ignore when setting expectations for the future. I wasn't expecting the Saints to produce the defensive numbers they produced this past season. They were running low on depth in key spots before the opener, but still they ranked fourth in points allowed and 10th in defensive expected points added. Cameron Jordan, Akiem Hicks, Junior Galette, Keenan Lewis and Kenny Vaccaro deserve much of the credit. So does coordinator Rob Ryan. The Saints aren't as strong throughout their roster as the 49ers or Seahawks, but they're plenty capable.
Divisional outlook: Check out the final scores from the Saints' 2013 road games against NFC South opponents. They beat the Josh Freeman-led Buccaneers, 16-14. They held off a struggling Falcons team, 17-13. And they lost by a 17-13 count at Carolina. It might not mean much in the future, but if the division improves as expected, life gets tougher for New Orleans.
Home opponents (.461): Seattle, New Orleans, Chicago, Pittsburgh, Detroit, Atlanta, Tampa Bay, Cleveland
Road opponents (.484): New Orleans, Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Green Bay, Baltimore, Minnesota, Atlanta, Tampa Bay
My early read: The Panthers should remain tough on defense and capable enough on offense. They clearly must add weapons for quarterback Cam Newton. That was a concern heading into last season, and one Carolina overcame better than anticipated. Unwieldy contracts for running backs have created salary-cap issues that aren't going away next season, but I don't see any reason for a big drop in performance.
Divisional outlook: Life in the NFC South is going to get tougher in 2014. That is why the Panthers rank lower on this list than a second seed typically might. They had to sweat out the final weeks of the 2013 season even though Atlanta and Tampa Bay were irrelevant by then. The Falcons will get Julio Jones back. They will improve. I loved how they competed at San Francisco with nothing on the line in Week 16. General managers polled during the season thought Tampa Bay was going to win in 2014 with or without a coaching change. Lovie Smith should be in good shape there.
Home opponents (.520): Carolina, New England, Philadelphia, Chicago, New York (Jets), Detroit, Minnesota, Atlanta
Road opponents (.488): Seattle, New Orleans, Chicago, Miami, Detroit, Buffalo, Minnesota, Tampa Bay
My early read: The 1-2 odds on Green Bay reaching the playoffs seems optimistic to me even though the Packers are riding a five-year run of postseason appearances. Is there any reason to think the defense will suddenly reverse its free fall? Clay Matthews is the one Green Bay defender opponents must worry about, but he has missed nine full games over the past two seasons. Having Aaron Rodgers on offense might be enough to overcome the defensive shortcomings if the rest of the division continues to cooperate. Coach Mike McCarthy does a great job adjusting to his personnel.
Divisional outlook: Detroit might have the most talented roster in the NFC North, but it isn't going to matter unless Matthew Stafford becomes a consistent quarterback under new coach Jim Caldwell. Rodgers might still give Green Bay the edge, but the Packers' grip on the North feels tenuous.
Home opponents (.570): Denver, Seattle, New England, San Diego, New York (Jets), Tennessee, St. Louis, Oakland
Road opponents (.547): Denver, San Francisco, Arizona, San Diego, Miami, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, Oakland
My early read: The Chiefs beat up on bad quarterbacks in 2013. Matt McGloin, Jeff Tuel, Jason Campbell, Case Keenum, Terrelle Pryor, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Blaine Gabbert were on the list. So were the struggling Robert Griffin III and Eli Manning. We can't hold that against the Chiefs, but unfortunately for them, the 2014 schedule features Russell Wilson, Colin Kaepernick, Tom Brady and Ben Roethlisberger -- in addition to Philip Rivers and Peyton Manning in the AFC West. Some correction is to be expected. We should point out, however, that the Chiefs' own QB, Alex Smith, finished strong. He tossed 16 touchdowns with only three interceptions over his final six starts, counting playoffs. His passer rating (111.7) and Total QBR score (68.2) over that stretch were encouraging.
Divisional outlook: Matching up against the NFC West is going to drag down the overall winning percentage for teams from the AFC West. There won't be three playoff teams from the division next season. The Chiefs could have hard time getting back to the postseason right away.
Home opponents (.563): Denver, Seattle, New England, Kansas City, New York (Jets), St. Louis, Oakland, Jacksonville
Road opponents (.563): Denver, San Francisco, Kansas City, Arizona, Miami, Baltimore, Buffalo, Oakland
My early read: One of these teams has to rank 12th, and it's the Chargers. I'm not down on them in the least. They found out Rivers is still in his prime and Ryan Mathews can be a tone-setting runner. What they really need is a defense to hold up its end more consistently. They started to find one late in the season. San Diego's defense cost the team 8.3 expected points per game through Week 12. Only Atlanta and Minnesota were worse by that measure over that span. The Chargers' defense added nearly one expected point per game from that point forward, counting playoffs. San Diego went 5-2 over that stretch, becoming the second team since 2002 to reach the playoffs after starting 5-7. This team is headed in the right direction.
Divisional outlook: The Chargers were 4-2 in the division this season and became the only AFC West team to defeat Denver. I can't think of another team in the division or anywhere that appeared to be coordinated better on both sides of the ball. Losing Whisenhunt could affect the dynamic some.
Picking my All-Star rosters
The NBA All-Star starters will be announced Thursday on TNT and as we all know, the fan vote (which determines the starters) is merely a popularity contest. After all, Kobe Bryant, who due to injury has played in just six games this season, will likely be voted a starter in the Western Conference.
Injuries are actually going to help the process out West because, were it not for the fact that Kobe and Russell Westbrook are injured, you would have a couple of All-Star-worthy guards left off the roster. Meanwhile in the East -- which is quite possibly the worst conference we've ever seen from the No. 3 team through No. 15 -- you're scouring for legitimate All-Stars.
In a sign of just how poor big-man play is in the East, here's the conference's starting frontcourt: LeBron James, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony, three small forwards.
Well, today I'm going to humbly submit my All-Star rosters. I will have at least one big man in each starting lineup, and no players who've missed the bulk of the season with injuries (sorry Kobe and Russell) will make the squad.
Here we go.
Eastern Conference
Starters G -- Dwyane Wade, Miami Heat Yes, he's missed 11 games. However, he's been terrific when he does play, averaging 19 points a game on career-high 54 percent shooting. But this stat says it all about his value (and perhaps the talent gap between him and his backups) this season: the defending champions are 24-6 with Wade in the lineup and just 6-6 with him on the sidelines.
G -- John Wall, Washington Wizards While all eyes have been on Kyrie Irving, Wall has led the Wizards to a .500 record by making his teammates better and posting career-highs in points (20.2 PPG), assists (8.5) and steals (1.9).
F -- LeBron James, Miami Heat Talk about being a victim of your own greatness -- 26 points and nearly seven assists and seven rebounds a game on 58 percent shooting (he's a perimeter player, people!) is considered a down season.
F -- Paul George, Indiana Pacers They have their differences, but he's the closest thing I've seen to Scottie Pippen.
C -- Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers Hard to believe this, but few scare the world champions as much as Mr. Hibbert.
Reserves Kyrie Irving, Cleveland Cavaliers: Fine, so the Cavaliers are horrible. But Irving still is one of the top individual talents in the league. He has to learn how to make his teammates better, but he's still a legitimate All-Star.
Lance Stephenson, Indiana Pacers: Unbelievable rise for a player who averaged less than three points a game over his first two seasons. Give "Born Ready'' credit for gorging himself on humble pie to not only salvage his career but become arguably the league's most impactful role player.
Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks: It's tempting to pounce on Anthony because the Knicks are so pathetic, but he's averaging 26 points, nine rebounds and three assists a game. Maybe we should consider this: it's his teammates.
Chris Bosh, Miami Heat: Rumor has it that Bosh has fallen off, but don't believe the hype. Though under-used, he's still as good as ever. In my opinion, the Heat would be wise to make him the second option because Wade's in and out of the lineup too much.
DeMar DeRozan, Toronto Raptors: I never would've predicted an All-Star berth for DeRozan before the season began, but he must be rewarded for leading Toronto to a .500 record. He's often saved his best for big games, recording 26 points and nine boards in a win over Indiana and 26 points and seven rebounds in a win over Brooklyn.
Luol Deng, Cleveland Cavaliers: He was the Bulls' best player this season and his impact on Cleveland has been immediate and noticeable.
Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks: He's been giving the business to bigger, more ballyhooed opponents for years. This is the season he finally gets his due.
Regrets: These guys deserve to be there, but there's just no room at the inn for them.
Joe Johnson (Brooklyn Nets), Al Jefferson (Charlotte Bobcats), Andre Drummond (Detroit Pistons)
Western Conference
Starters G -- Chris Paul, Los Angeles ClippersThe NBA's best point guard has played just games but should be back in time for the midseason classic.
G -- Stephen Curry, Golden State WarriorsCurry is the highest-scoring point guard in the league and second only to Paul in assists (9.2).
F -- Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City ThunderThe hands-down MVP at this point. A flat-out unstoppable scorer, having
F -- LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail BlazersAldridge is a top-four MVP candidate. Rarely do you see a player improve this much at age 28. He's averaging nearly six points and four rebounds above his career numbers.
C -- Dwight Howard, Houston RocketsHoward is still not playing at the level he did in Orlando, but he has reestablished himself as the game's best center.
ReservesJames Harden, Houston Rockets: With Wade and Bryant hobbled, he's now the best shooting guard in the league.
Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs: A former colleague of mine laughed at me a few years ago when I called Tony Parker a Hall of Famer. He's not laughing now.
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers: Lillard shoots better from 3-point range than from 2. He and Aldridge are right there with Paul/Griffin and Harden/Howard as the best inside-outside tandems in the league.
Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers: Has improved his game greatly this season. Since Paul went down, he's averaged 25 points per game to show he can carry a playoff-level team by himself. Of the league's top 20 scorers, only James is more efficient (in terms of field goal percentage).
Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves: Love's numbers are out of this world, but the verdict's still out on how much he impacts winning.
Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs: As much as many would like to put Duncan out to pasture, it's undeniable that he's still one of the league's best players.
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks: Just like Duncan, he continues to prevail over Father Time. His rebounds are down but his scoring and impact on the game is still great. In the tough West, he has the Mavericks in the playoffs.
RegretsDeMarcus Cousins (Sacramento Kings), David Lee (Golden State Warriors), Anthony Davis (New Orleans Pelicans), Monta Ellis (Dallas Mavericks), Klay Thompson (Golden State Warriors)
Starters G -- Chris Paul, Los Angeles ClippersThe NBA's best point guard has played just games but should be back in time for the midseason classic.
G -- Stephen Curry, Golden State WarriorsCurry is the highest-scoring point guard in the league and second only to Paul in assists (9.2).
F -- Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City ThunderThe hands-down MVP at this point. A flat-out unstoppable scorer, having
F -- LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail BlazersAldridge is a top-four MVP candidate. Rarely do you see a player improve this much at age 28. He's averaging nearly six points and four rebounds above his career numbers.
C -- Dwight Howard, Houston RocketsHoward is still not playing at the level he did in Orlando, but he has reestablished himself as the game's best center.
ReservesJames Harden, Houston Rockets: With Wade and Bryant hobbled, he's now the best shooting guard in the league.
Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs: A former colleague of mine laughed at me a few years ago when I called Tony Parker a Hall of Famer. He's not laughing now.
Damian Lillard, Portland Trail Blazers: Lillard shoots better from 3-point range than from 2. He and Aldridge are right there with Paul/Griffin and Harden/Howard as the best inside-outside tandems in the league.
Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers: Has improved his game greatly this season. Since Paul went down, he's averaged 25 points per game to show he can carry a playoff-level team by himself. Of the league's top 20 scorers, only James is more efficient (in terms of field goal percentage).
Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves: Love's numbers are out of this world, but the verdict's still out on how much he impacts winning.
Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs: As much as many would like to put Duncan out to pasture, it's undeniable that he's still one of the league's best players.
Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks: Just like Duncan, he continues to prevail over Father Time. His rebounds are down but his scoring and impact on the game is still great. In the tough West, he has the Mavericks in the playoffs.
RegretsDeMarcus Cousins (Sacramento Kings), David Lee (Golden State Warriors), Anthony Davis (New Orleans Pelicans), Monta Ellis (Dallas Mavericks), Klay Thompson (Golden State Warriors)
beenz
Rap Guerilla
this article is utter
cleveland should NOT get 1 let alone 2 all stars just cuz of their terrible record alone. deng going to cleveland hasn't improved them one bit, and kyrie putting up numbers for a team that can't compete in this eastern conference further confirms to me he's no all star.
also, bosh is having a bad year. give al jefferson or drummond his spot.
954UAlreadyknow
All Star
Is Julius Randle overrated?
ESPN Insider's Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton return to provide the kind of discussions that are happening in front offices around the NBA -- where scouts and statistical experts are breaking down NBA draft prospects using their "eyes, ears and numbers."
Chad Ford's Top 100 | Big Board 5.0
1. What is a red flag for Kentucky's Julius Randle?
Kevin Pelton: For Julius Randle, one stat stands out above all others: steals. In 525 minutes this season, the Kentucky freshman has recorded just five steals. Five! And four of those have come in the past two weeks. It's difficult to understand how a player as talented as Randle could possibly not have more steals; it seems like he'd come up with a handful simply by accident.
This might not seem like a big deal. After all, how important are steals for a power forward? Historically, however, steal rate has outsized importance in predicting how well prospects will translate to the NBA. Consider this: When steal rate is adjusted by position average, the top 25 prospects in my NCAA database have on average outproduced their position in the draft by 1.1 WARP. This group includes draft-day steals like DeJuan Blair, Kenneth Faried, Danny Granger, Paul Millsap and Jameer Nelson.
By contrast, the 25 worst players in position-adjusted steal rate have on average produced 0.5 WARP fewer than expected based on their draft position. The lottery picks among this group (Joe Alexander, Ed Davis, Ike Diogu, Brandon Knight, Alex Len, Shabazz Muhammad and Hasheem Thabeet) have generally been disappointments. So, Chad, what are scouts telling you about Randle's conspicuous lack of steals?
Chad Ford: Well, they're probably running for the hills after seeing those comps. Joe Alexander and Hasheem Thabeet? Yikes.
2. Does that mean Randle is overrated?
Ford: Before the season began, many scouts saw Randle as the second-best prospect in the draft, a prototypical power forward who could score from anywhere on the floor and was a beast on the boards.
For the most part, he's had a great freshman season. He's been a double-double machine for Kentucky and carried a huge load on his shoulders. His motor runs hot on virtually every play (at least on the offensive end).
However, his stock has slid this season -- though not primarily because of his steal rate. The stat guys in the league have all been buzzing about that, but the more traditional scouts have been concerned with Randle's struggles against long, athletic bigs. In high school, Randle used his strength and motor to overpower people. He still does that some nights at the college level, but his 50 percent shooting mark at the rim isn't great for a player with his reputation. Plus, he has struggled when matched up against other long, athletic big men. Given that's what he'll face every night in the NBA, that's a concern.
Scouts also have been disappointed that we really haven't seen Randle's perimeter game shine this season. Nearly 50 percent of his shots this season have been jumpers, but he's hitting just 36 percent of his 2-point jumpers and just 11 percent from 3-point range. So given the buzz about Randle's ability to stretch the floor coming into the season, that's a bit of a disappointment, too.
Pelton: Right. A stroll through my database of NCAA translations also indicates that WARP projections give steal rate adequate weight without any adjustments. That's important because it means a low steal rate can be overcome by elite performance elsewhere. Such was the case with Ryan Anderson, the most extreme outlier in terms of steals. Prior to Len last season, Anderson's college steal rate was the single lowest relative to position of any player who reached the NBA in the past decade. Yet Anderson's WARP projection still rated third best in his draft, and he's exceeded it during his pro career, becoming an analytics darling.
Part of the issue is that the rest of Randle's offensive numbers have been merely good, not dominant. Translated to its NBA equivalent, his 49.9 percent 2-point mark is only average, and his turnover rate is a major weakness. Randle has been elite on the glass, but more was expected of a possible No. 1 pick.
Ford: It's good that you are pointing out that when you are looking at these WARP projections, it's one tool of many that a front office uses in evaluating a draft pick. No one single factor goes into drafting or not drafting a player.
Something like a low steal rate becomes a sort of a red flag that causes good front offices to dig deeper to understand why it's so low and to give players a second and third look.
And we also have to be careful about outliers. Just because Anderson bucks the trend here is not evidence alone that we should ignore that. If the vast majority of highly ranked power forward prospects with low steal rates have struggled in the NBA, you don't ignore that because there was one or two guys who didn't.
When the numbers and eyes and ears all align, it's easy to project a player. But when they are at odds with one another, it's a signal to be careful.
With that said, it's been assumed all season the Randle was the best power forward prospect in the draft. But if the stat guys aren't impressed, and the scouts are a little disappointed, is there another guy who might be a better choice?
3. Which power forward might be a better NBA prospect than Randle?
Pelton: I find myself leaning toward Indiana's Noah Vonleh as the better freshman power forward. On a per-minute basis, their numbers are fairly similar. Randle is the better scorer, but there are a couple of reasons to favor Vonleh. First, because he reclassified, Vonleh is almost nine months younger than Randle and won't turn 19 until next August. Second, his steal rate is more than three times better than Randle's and solidly above average for a big man.
Vonleh might not have the "star" potential of Randle, but I tend to believe he's the stronger bet to be a solid contributor in the NBA.
Ford: It's not just the numbers that are starting to lean toward Vonleh. In the past week, I've had several NBA scouts tell me that they are now leaning toward him over Randle. That's a major change. Vonleh has been regarded as a top-10 pick, but this is the first time I'm hearing teams project him as a potential top-five pick -- and getting drafted ahead of Randle.
Why? He's bigger and longer, which are two factors that scouts obsess about. He also has, in the past few weeks, stretched his game out into the perimeter. In his past four games, Vonleh is 7-for-9 from behind the arc. His stroke looks really pure and he's beginning to look comfortable on the perimeter.
He also has a higher rebounding rate than Randle on the defensive boards. Plus, he shoots nearly 20 percent better from the field at the rim (70.1 percent to Randle's 50.2), he's more accurate on his 2-point jumpers (40.9 percent to 36.6) and much more accurate in his 3-point shooting (55.6 percent to Randle's 11).
So Vonleh is younger, taller, longer, shoots better from the field and possesses a better rebounding rate than Randle. The question we really should be asking ourselves is: "Why exactly is Randle ahead of Vonleh on the Big Board?"
Super Bowl breakdown, prediction
After an impressive 26-16 win over the New England Patriots in the AFC Championship Game, the Denver Broncos and Peyton Manning have earned the right to play in another Super Bowl. They'll meet the Seattle Seahawks on Sunday, as Seattle came back and held off the San Francisco 49ers 23-17 in a terrific NFC Championship Game.
Will Manning win his second Super Bowl? Will Russell Wilson win his first? Can Seattle's defense slow down Manning and the NFL's highest-scoring offense?
Let's preview Super Bowl XLVIII as I did the conference title games last week: looking at which team has the advantage on offense, defense and special teams, along with an X factor. I'll also give my pick on the game.
Seattle Seahawks vs. Denver Broncos
Offense: Denver's offense is truly multidimensional, and as I've mentioned before, Manning is a pure distributor of the football. He likes to work inside the hash marks out, and will find the open man. But the biggest thing to understand about this offense is that it's predicated on moving the chains and not making any negative plays. Manning understands just about every defense you can throw at him and is continuously processing more information about your defensive game plan on every successive offensive play he runs.
If you play a single safety high, he's going to pick you apart by finding the one-on-one matchup he likes. If you go to a Cover 2 shell with two safeties deep, he'll check to a run or a play with crossing routes to exploit man coverage. A perfect example of this came in the second quarter of the AFC title game against the Patriots. On a third-and-10 from New England's 39, Manning saw there were only five men in the box and a two-deep shell with man coverage underneath. He knew that if Denver could block the Mike LB (who had responsibility for Knowshon Moreno in coverage), then there was no one else there. He audibled to a run, which picked up 28 yards and a first down. That play is evidence of why he's so special and why this will be a great matchup against Seattle's defense.
The Seahawks are primarily a running team, as the offense flows through the legs of Marshawn Lynch -- and Wilson. Lynch is the bell-cow running back, and a lot of what they like to do is based off play-action, bootlegs and QB waggles. I thought Wilson looked much better in the NFC title game than in the previous round against New Orleans, and it was important for him to come back after that early fumble. He never loses his poise and he's special because of his ability to make the unannounced play, like the incredible scramble and 51-yard pass to Doug Baldwin against the 49ers. If Percy Harvin is able to play, he will make a huge difference for this offense, which is lacking a true vertical threat.
Advantage: Denver. There's a reason this was the highest-scoring offense in NFL history.
Defense: This is a tremendous Seattle defense and one that I enjoy watching on a weekly basis. The front four does a nice job of getting to the quarterback, and free-agent additions Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril have been huge in allowing Seattle to rotate in pass-rushers and get pressure on opposing QBs by only rushing four. This group plays with an attitude and it rallies to the football. Its calling card is its physicality, whether that's Richard Sherman on the outside or Earl Thomas and Kam Chancellor at safety. Sherman will line up on the left side of the defense most of the time and match up against the opposition's top target. Chancellor could be very important in this game, because he'll likely have the task of slowing down Julius Thomas one-on-one.
Seattle plays a base 4-3, but shows some 3-4 looks and has been playing a lot of combo coverages with Sherman in man on one side. If the Seahawks can continue to get pressure with four and drop seven into coverage against Manning, they have a great shot to win.
Denver has an opportunistic defense, but they have some holes now because of injuries. The Broncos' best cover man, Chris Harris, is out. Their best pass-rusher, Von Miller, is also out. They have struggled getting to the QB without blitzing, as evidenced by the three hits they got on Tom Brady in the AFC title game.
The strength of this unit is up front with its run defense, and defensive tackle Terrance Knighton has done a terrific job taking on double teams and occasionally pressuring the QB when he has a one-on-one matchup. Denver's D-line doesn't want any runs going in the A-gap, so it tries to force runners to bounce it outside and let the linebackers make plays. This defense is predicated on not giving up the big play and buckling down in the red zone. It will mix both man and zone looks, and especially likes to send zone dog blitzes when offenses are behind in the chains. The Seahawks should feel like they have an opportunity to throw the ball against this secondary, although Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie is the one corner to avoid. He has terrific ball skills. If Bailey is matched up with Harvin in the slot, that could be a fun matchup.
Advantage: Seattle. The Seahawks have the best defense in the NFL, and that unit is the reason they are playing in New Jersey on Sunday.
Special teams: The Broncos' Trindon Holliday is a special player on kickoffs and I think it's a good move that they have put Eric Decker back on punt returns. He has sure hands, which he'll need in that New Jersey weather. Harvin, if he plays, is an electric returner as well and makes you nervous when he has the ball in his hands. Both kickers are experienced and have had great postseasons.
Advantage: Seattle. Harvin is such a special player that he makes the difference if he's able to play and contribute effectively.
X factors
Denver, defensive end Shaun Phillips: He was signed to be only a part-time player, but he's stepped up and filled the void left by Miller and Elvis Dumervil. He can rush the passer and win one-on-one matchups, but his most important job on Sunday will be setting the edge against Wilson and making sure he doesn't escape the pocket.
Seattle, Percy Harvin: This may seem like the obvious choice, but he can affect the game in so many ways. Seattle's offense was so much more dangerous against New Orleans when he was in the lineup, as he draws the defense's attention and is a playmaker in space. Seattle will look to get him involved with runs, bubble screens, option routes and any other way it can.
Prediction: I'm a fan of coach John Fox and I'm glad that Manning got back to the Super Bowl, but I'm picking the underdog in this one. I picked Seattle over Denver before the season, so I'm not going back now. I think Seattle will be able to get Manning off his spot and make him hold the ball longer than he wants. He won't get guys running free like he has been used to all season. And that Seattle rushing attack should be able to keep Manning and his offense off the field for long enough. Winner: Seahawks.