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Greatest teams by peak value
It's a compelling, fun hypothetical: If every NBA team had its players in the prime of their careers, which would be the best?
For instance, what if the Brooklyn Nets had Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Deron Williams, Joe Johnson et al. during their absolute peaks? Where would that team rank among all such teams?
Readers enjoyed Friday's column attempting to answer this question by ranking this season's teams, and many of them raised the same follow-up question: What about the all-time best teams? In truth, we can't rank the best "peak value" teams ever because my wins above replacement player (WARP) metric dates back only to 1977-78, when the league first tracked player turnovers. But here are the star-studded leaders since then, including a No. 1 that might surprise you.
The method remains the same as Friday's column. For each player, I've taken their best season in terms of WARP as their "prime" value, and the team's rating is made up of the 12 best players by this measure.
Honorable mentions
• 1983-84 Los Angeles Lakers (123.0 WARP): The best of the Magic-Kareem-Worthy Lakers teams thanks to the presence of Bob McAdoo and Swen Nater.
• 2004-05 Dallas Mavericks (126.4 WARP): Just one player with an All-NBA nod (Dirk Nowitzki), but a host of quality veterans that went 10 deep in peak value.
• 2012-13 Los Angeles Clippers (127.5 WARP): A star-studded wing rotation of Chauncey Billups, Caron Butler and Grant Hill.
• 1985-86 Philadelphia 76ers (128.0 WARP): The best-rated entrant from the '80s combined a young Charles Barkley and an old McAdoo with the Dr. J/Moses Malone core as the only team in NBA history with four MVPs.
• 2001-02 Orlando Magic (128.4 WARP): Tracy McGrady and Grant Hill plus a frontcourt rotation of Patrick Ewing and Horace Grant.
10. 1999-2000 Phoenix Suns (129.5, 5 All-Stars, 3 All-NBA)
The Suns sneak onto the list via something of a technicality. In March, they brought future Sacramento mayor Kevin Johnson (16.2 WARP at peak) out of retirement when Jason Kidd (21.2) was sidelined. Add in a young Penny Hardaway (19.3) and Phoenix would certainly not lack for ballhandling.
9. 2011-12 Dallas Mavericks (129.8, 4 All-Stars, 4 All-NBA)
The NBA's best team circa 2002, these Mavericks combined four All-Stars (Kidd; Vince Carter, 16.5; Shawn Marion, 19.2; and Dirk Nowitzki, 19.7) with two of the best players never to make the All-Star Game (Jason Terry, 12.7; Lamar Odom, 11.9). They surpassed the 2011 championship team on this list by adding Carter and Odom, but were too far past their prime to avoid a first-round sweep at the hands of the Oklahoma City Thunder.
8. 2003-04 Los Angeles Lakers (130.7, 5 All-Stars, 4 All-NBA)
These Lakers are typically the first team that comes to mind when considering groups that would have been amazing together in their prime. With Karl Malone (20.5) and Gary Payton (20.0) joining Kobe Bryant (20.4) and Shaquille O'Neal (25.7) in pursuit of a missing championship ring, this is the sole team on the list with four players who posted 20-WARP seasons. In five-on-five, they'd be tough to beat. So why aren't the Lakers higher? After Horace Grant, the fifth All-Star on the roster, the star talent drops off as the rest of the rotation was made up of role players like Rick Fox (7.5) and Derek Fisher (5.5).
7. 2008-09 Phoenix Suns (132.1, 4 All-Stars, 4 All-NBA)
By far the most accomplished team ever to miss the playoffs (the 1992-93 Detroit Pistons rank second among that group), these Suns featured two MVPs in O'Neal and Steve Nash (17.8) plus two more All-NBA First Team picks in Hill (21.1) and Amar'e Stoudemire (16.0). Yet despite solid role players like Jason Richardson (10.6) and Leandro Barbosa (9.0), Phoenix rated 26th in defensive rating and finished ninth in the West with a 46-36 record.
6. 1994-95 San Antonio Spurs (132.4 WARP, 6 All-Stars, 3 All-NBA)
Good luck matching up with this frontcourt. The Spurs had Moses Malone (21.9) backing up fellow MVP David Robinson (27.3) next to Dennis Rodman (16.5). And San Antonio also had accomplished veterans like Doc Rivers (13.5) and Terry Cummings (13.0) coming off the bench.
5. 2004-05 Houston Rockets (132.7 WARP, 5 All-Stars, 6 All-NBA)
To paraphrase Stefon, this team had everything: The tallest All-Star (Yao Ming), a two-time scoring champ (Tracy McGrady), a four-time Defensive Player of the Year (Dikembe Mutombo), the best player never to make an All-Star team (Rod Strickland), one of Dennis Rodman's North Korean teammates (Vin Baker), "Baby Barkley" (Clarence Weatherspoon), an ESPN broadcaster (Jon Barry), a member of the Fab Five (Juwan Howard), an insomniac (Moochie Norris) and a Heisman trophy winner (Charlie Ward). The bouncer is Jeff Van Gundy's pitbull and the password is "13 points in 35 seconds."
4. 2000-01 Portland Trail Blazers (134.8 WARP, 6 All-Stars, 4 All-NBA)
After the 2003-04 Lakers, the so-called "Jail Blazers" might have been the most popular guess by readers. In terms of sheer depth, they're hard to beat. They featured nine players worth at least 9 WARP in their prime (Greg Anthony, Shawn Kemp, Scottie Pippen, Arvydas Sabonis, Detlef Schrempf, Steve Smith, Damon Stoudamire, Rod Strickland and Rasheed Wallace), a group that somehow doesn't include All-Star Dale Davis (6.9). However, Portland comes up short due to the same lack of elite talent that was an issue in real games. Kemp (16.8) and Pippen (19.5) were the two players who peaked greater than 13 WARP.
3. 2010-11 Miami Heat (135.9 WARP, 7 All-Stars, 4 All-NBA -- also 2012-13, 130.6)
The best Big Three Miami team in terms of prime value was the first incarnation, which lost to Dallas in the NBA Finals. While that Heat squad didn't have a third star like Ray Allen, it featured seven All-Stars, with players like Jerry Stackhouse (13.4), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (9.6), Jamaal Magloire (4.9) and Howard coming off the bench. And that's not mentioning players like Mike Bibby (11.7) and Erick Dampier (10.2) who had impressive primes. The 2012-13 team also ranked 10th, edging out this season's version thanks to Mike Miller (8.2) and Howard. Although there's still time for Miami to bring Howard back ...
2. 2010-11 Boston Celtics (143.2 WARP, 6 All-Stars, 6 All-NBA)
When these Celtics lost to the Heat in a five-game conference semifinals, it was the most accomplished matchup the modern NBA has ever seen. Had it been played with everyone in their prime, the series might have gone differently for Boston, which would have gotten a pair of MVPs in Shaquille O'Neal and Kevin Garnett (26.3) among six players that made All-NBA teams (also Paul Pierce, 18.4; Allen, 17.8; Rajon Rondo, 13.6; and Jermaine O'Neal, 11.4).
1. 2006-07 Miami Heat (152.4 WARP, 6 All-Stars, 5 All-NBA -- also 2005-06, 147.2; and 2004-05, 129.6)
Your surprise winner is a Miami team that went 44-38 and got bounced from the playoffs in the first round. Of course, the Heat did win the championship the year before and came within a win of the Finals in 2004-05 among the three full seasons Shaquille O'Neal played with Wade (23.8). The 2005-06 and 2006-07 teams both also featured Payton and Alonzo Mourning (19.1), and Mourning could eventually join Payton (who's already been voted in) and O'Neal and Wade (locks) in the Hall of Fame. As compared to the 2003-04 Lakers, these Miami teams went much deeper with the likes of Antoine Walker (14.9), Jason Williams (10.2) and James Posey (9.6) as role players. And the 2006-07 Heat edged out their 2005-06 counterparts for the top spot thanks to the addition of All-Star Eddie Jones (14.5) to the roster.
Who's missing?
The 1980s Celtics
Not only did none of Boston's title teams make the list, they didn't come particularly close. The best of them, the 1987-88 team with eight All-Stars, finished 45th. In part, '80s teams suffer because some of their players' peak seasons aren't covered by WARP. For example, Bill Walton's last full season in Portland, 1976-77, came the last year before individual turnovers were tracked. Beyond that, several Celtics -- notably Hall of Famer Dennis Johnson (8.0) and All-Star Reggie Lewis (5.6) don't fare as well by WARP as reputation.
The Jordan Bulls
Despite the advantage of the single-best player by peak WARP (Michael Jordan, 27.6), none of the Bulls' teams in the 1990s were particularly stocked with prime talent. The 1996-97 Bulls, ranked 26th, come closest thanks to Robert Parish (16.0) at the end of the bench. Parish aside, Chicago rarely filled out its bench with big-name veterans. If only the Bulls had known it would cost them in this ranking.
This season's teams
The leaders among 2013-14 teams, the Nets and Heat, finish 20th and 21st by this measure.
After the 2003-04 Lakers, the so-called "Jail Blazers" might have been the most popular guess by readers. In terms of sheer depth, they're hard to beat. They featured nine players worth at least 9 WARP in their prime (Greg Anthony, Shawn Kemp, Scottie Pippen, Arvydas Sabonis, Detlef Schrempf, Steve Smith, Damon Stoudamire, Rod Strickland and Rasheed Wallace), a group that somehow doesn't include All-Star Dale Davis (6.9). However, Portland comes up short due to the same lack of elite talent that was an issue in real games. Kemp (16.8) and Pippen (19.5) were the two players who peaked greater than 13 WARP.
3. 2010-11 Miami Heat (135.9 WARP, 7 All-Stars, 4 All-NBA -- also 2012-13, 130.6)
The best Big Three Miami team in terms of prime value was the first incarnation, which lost to Dallas in the NBA Finals. While that Heat squad didn't have a third star like Ray Allen, it featured seven All-Stars, with players like Jerry Stackhouse (13.4), Zydrunas Ilgauskas (9.6), Jamaal Magloire (4.9) and Howard coming off the bench. And that's not mentioning players like Mike Bibby (11.7) and Erick Dampier (10.2) who had impressive primes. The 2012-13 team also ranked 10th, edging out this season's version thanks to Mike Miller (8.2) and Howard. Although there's still time for Miami to bring Howard back ...
2. 2010-11 Boston Celtics (143.2 WARP, 6 All-Stars, 6 All-NBA)
When these Celtics lost to the Heat in a five-game conference semifinals, it was the most accomplished matchup the modern NBA has ever seen. Had it been played with everyone in their prime, the series might have gone differently for Boston, which would have gotten a pair of MVPs in Shaquille O'Neal and Kevin Garnett (26.3) among six players that made All-NBA teams (also Paul Pierce, 18.4; Allen, 17.8; Rajon Rondo, 13.6; and Jermaine O'Neal, 11.4).
1. 2006-07 Miami Heat (152.4 WARP, 6 All-Stars, 5 All-NBA -- also 2005-06, 147.2; and 2004-05, 129.6)
Your surprise winner is a Miami team that went 44-38 and got bounced from the playoffs in the first round. Of course, the Heat did win the championship the year before and came within a win of the Finals in 2004-05 among the three full seasons Shaquille O'Neal played with Wade (23.8). The 2005-06 and 2006-07 teams both also featured Payton and Alonzo Mourning (19.1), and Mourning could eventually join Payton (who's already been voted in) and O'Neal and Wade (locks) in the Hall of Fame. As compared to the 2003-04 Lakers, these Miami teams went much deeper with the likes of Antoine Walker (14.9), Jason Williams (10.2) and James Posey (9.6) as role players. And the 2006-07 Heat edged out their 2005-06 counterparts for the top spot thanks to the addition of All-Star Eddie Jones (14.5) to the roster.
Who's missing?
The 1980s Celtics
Not only did none of Boston's title teams make the list, they didn't come particularly close. The best of them, the 1987-88 team with eight All-Stars, finished 45th. In part, '80s teams suffer because some of their players' peak seasons aren't covered by WARP. For example, Bill Walton's last full season in Portland, 1976-77, came the last year before individual turnovers were tracked. Beyond that, several Celtics -- notably Hall of Famer Dennis Johnson (8.0) and All-Star Reggie Lewis (5.6) don't fare as well by WARP as reputation.
The Jordan Bulls
Despite the advantage of the single-best player by peak WARP (Michael Jordan, 27.6), none of the Bulls' teams in the 1990s were particularly stocked with prime talent. The 1996-97 Bulls, ranked 26th, come closest thanks to Robert Parish (16.0) at the end of the bench. Parish aside, Chicago rarely filled out its bench with big-name veterans. If only the Bulls had known it would cost them in this ranking.
This season's teams
The leaders among 2013-14 teams, the Nets and Heat, finish 20th and 21st by this measure.
Deng trade shakes up tanking race
From week to week, Tank Rank can be a little volatile. Catching good teams on back-to-backs, at the end of a long road trip or with its star player injured can really inflate a record past where it should be.
This week, the tanking for the most part played to form -- our top four was a combined 0-15. That's how it's done.
On the other hand, there's the Chicago Bulls, who traded Luol Deng for cap relief, lost Jimmy Butler to an injury and still managed to go 3-0. Somewhere Bulls GM Gar Forman and Raptors GM Masai Ujiri are screaming, "What do we have to do to lose?"
Here's our weekly look at where the 10 worst teams in the NBA stand in their quest for the No. 1 pick in the draft.
1. Milwaukee Bucks | Status: Tanking | Record: 7-29 (0-3 past week)
What do you have to do to lose? Be the Bucks. Combine injuries, mediocre talent and iffy chemistry and you've got a strong formula for tanking. Right now there are only two things Bucks fans can really be excited about. One, they are looking like the favorites to win the No. 1 pick -- regardless of what happens the rest of the season. Two, rookie Giannis Antetokounmpo may be the most talented player in this season's rookie class. Pair him with another potential superstar and the Bucks' future will start looking very promising for the first time in a long time.
(Last week: 1
2. Orlando Magic | Status: Tanking | Record: 10-27 (0-4)
The Magic have lost seven straight and still have one more road game against the Mavs before getting a string of winnable home games against the Bulls, Bobcats and Celtics. Getting potentially eight straight losses is the good news for Magic fans who are hoping for a star to anchor this team. The bad news? Rookie Victor Oladipois shooting 29 percent from 3 and leads the team in turnovers per game. That's not what you want from either a 2-guard or a point guard -- let alone your franchise cornerstone.
(Last week: 2
3. Philadelphia 76ers | Status: Tanking | Record: 12-25 (0-4)
The Sixers rattled off four wins in a row two weeks ago, but they followed it up with four losses in a row this past week. Not sure there's any team in the league more schizophrenic right now. They've beaten winning teams like the Heat, Rockets, Nuggets and Blazers in the past but lost to the lowly Cavs, Pistons and Knicks this past week alone. The Sixers may play freer the heavier the underdogs they are.
(Last week: 5
4. Boston Celtics | Status: ??? | Record: 13-25 (0-4)
The Celtics have lost eight straight and suddenly look back on the tanking track after making a surprising surge at the playoffs a few weeks ago. They need the losses more than any of the teams in the top four.
All three of the teams ahead of them have at least one young player they can conceivably build around. The Celtics? Rajon Rondo could be that building block. But he turns 28 in February, has posed chemistry issues in the past and there is an increasing belief among NBA circles that GM Danny Ainge will use him, once healthy, to get multiple assets back. So the chances that he's the Celtics' cornerstone moving forward look slim.
Unless you think Avery Bradley or Jared Sullinger is a savior, the cupboard is pretty bare. The draft is their best chance at landing a future All-Star and Ainge knows it.
(Last week: 7
5. Utah Jazz | Status: Tanking | Record: 12-26 (1-1)
The Jazz are the worst team in the Western Conference but only rank fifth here. If that doesn't tell you something about the current state of the East, I'm not sure what does. Utah continues to clean up on the cellar dwellers and struggles against the league's elite. But given how inconsistent so many teams are this season, that could guarantee the Jazz a .500 record the rest of the way.
(Last week: 6
6. L.A. Lakers | Status: Rebuilding | Record: 14-23 (0-4)
The Lakers are just 1-10 in their past 11. With the exception of a home win versus the Jazz, they've been beaten up by the contenders in the West, but also have bad losses to the Bucks and Sixers at home. The team starts a seven-game trip Wednesday, and while they do play a few bad teams during that stretch (the Celtics and Magic are the two most winnable games), it's totally conceivable that the Lakers could be on a 1-18 slide heading into the last day of January.
(Last week: 8
7. Cleveland Cavaliers | Status: Trying | Record: 13-24 (2-1)
After rising to No. 3 in Tank Rank last week, the Cavs made their big move for the playoffs by trading Andrew Bynum to the Bulls for Luol Deng. The deal helps the Cavs in the short term. It probably puts them into the playoffs and off this Tank Rank in a month or two. Deng's a selfless, hardworking guy who is going help defensively. But as a long-term play, I'm less impressed. Deng turns 29 in April and is going to require the Cavs to fork over major dollars to re-sign him this summer, thus limiting their ability to make other moves. He's going to knock the Cavs from about an 8 percent chance of winning the lottery and a 90 percent chance of grabbing one of the top five picks, to a late lottery or mid-first round pick.
Owner Dan Gilbert is sacrificing the future so he can get to the playoffs now, but Deng doesn't make them a championship contender -- not even close -- and doesn't leave them a lot of flexibility for the future unless Anthony Bennett, Tristan Thompson or Dion Waiters suddenly turns into a star.
(Last week: 3
8. Sacramento Kings | Status: Rebuilding | Record: 13-22 (3-0)
The last time the Kings won three in a row was during a three-game stretch in early December ... 2012. DeMarcus Cousins is playing great. Isaiah Thomas has been spectacular at times. Rudy Gay has shot 62 percent from the field and 46 percent from 3 in his five games. Nevertheless, the Kings' playoff goal is still woefully out of reach. Based on John Hollinger's Playoff Odds, the Kings, despite a 3-0 week, have less than a 1 percent chance of making the playoffs.
(Last week: 4
9. Charlotte Bobcats | Status: Trying | Record: 15-23 (0-3)
A few weeks ago, some were lauding Bobcats coach Steve Clifford as a coach of the year candidate. Oops. The Bobcats have won just one game in their past nine. While the Bobcats still have a decent shot at making the playoffs (23.9 percent according to Hollinger's odds), there's nothing about this team that screams special. The top half of the lottery seems like such a better shot for the Bobcats to truly become a contender in the East.
(Last week: NR
10. Chicago Bulls | Status: Tanking? | Record: 17-18 (3-0)
The Bulls had a another great week, winning six of their past seven. This comes despite the fact that they swapped Deng for the right to waive Bynum and then lost Butler with another injury. The front office direction seems clear: The Bulls want to be contenders for the top pick. But with the way Tom Thibodeau coaches? Chicago may still make a run in the playoffs.
(Last week: 9
)
KEY
Tanking: The team's front office has deliberately weakened the team in an attempt to lose as many games as possible.
Tank-building: The space that lies somewhere between the ideas of tanking and rebuilding.
Rebuilding: The team's front office didn't go out of its way to sign or trade for quality players this summer, but it was less an attempt to lose games than it was an opportunity to give young players already on the roster a chance to prove themselves.
Trying: The team's front office went out of its way over the summer to strengthen the roster in an attempt to make the playoffs. The team just isn't very good.
The Bulls had a another great week, winning six of their past seven. This comes despite the fact that they swapped Deng for the right to waive Bynum and then lost Butler with another injury. The front office direction seems clear: The Bulls want to be contenders for the top pick. But with the way Tom Thibodeau coaches? Chicago may still make a run in the playoffs.
(Last week: 9
KEY
Tanking: The team's front office has deliberately weakened the team in an attempt to lose as many games as possible.
Tank-building: The space that lies somewhere between the ideas of tanking and rebuilding.
Rebuilding: The team's front office didn't go out of its way to sign or trade for quality players this summer, but it was less an attempt to lose games than it was an opportunity to give young players already on the roster a chance to prove themselves.
Trying: The team's front office went out of its way over the summer to strengthen the roster in an attempt to make the playoffs. The team just isn't very good.
Andrew Bynum's soft market
Andrew Bynum is free to sign with any team and at this time his market is very soft, according to ESPN.com's Marc Stein
According to Stein, the Atlanta Hawks, Brooklyn Nets and Los Angeles Clippersare showing zero interest in Bynum. Teams that might be willing to offer a minimum rest-of-season contract include the Dallas Mavericks, New York Knicksand Indiana Pacers. At this time Bynum is asking for more than the minimum and until he backs off that he will likely remain unsigned.
Chris Haynes of CSNNW.com reports Portland has not shown any inclination to look at Bynum and that will probably continue. Miami will also likely stay away from Bynum due to concerns with the luxury tax.
Bynum's bad knees and questionable work ethic are two of the top reasons he might have played his last game in the NBA.
Is LeBron James coasting?
MIAMI -- LeBron James is having an amazing 2013-14 season by any reasonable standard.
Except for his own.
James has somehow managed to raise his field goal percentage for the seventh straight season, to 59.1 percent. His true shooting percentage -- an advanced shooting percentage that incorporates 3-point shots and free throws -- stands at 67.2 percent. How high is that? As pointed out in a BIG Number episode last month, we've never seen a true shooting percentage north of 67 percent when taking at least 15 field goal attempts per game.
But the conversation around James has been more accusatory than congratulatory. The big question isn't "How's LeBron doing this?" It's, "Is LeBron coasting?"
Despite his otherworldly shooting efficiency, there is actually gobs of evidence to suggest that James is indeed playing in second gear, even after we account for his minutes, which have dipped this season to career-low levels.
Rebound rate? Dropped for the first time in five seasons. Assist rate? His lowest in eight seasons (32.4 percent of his teammates' baskets while on the floor). Steal rate? Never been lower. Block rate? Career-low as well. Outside of shot-making, all of the good things are down. Turnovers, on the other hand, are up to career-high levels.
So what's going on here?
Just before he left for Washington, D.C., to meet the president, I asked James that very question.
The shooting department
Here's something to chew on: The reigning MVP ranks tied for 18th in the NBA in field goal attempts per game (16.1).
James, the guy who seemingly can't miss, takes as many shots per game as Kemba Walker, and fewer shots than Al Jefferson. That doesn't consider the free throw line, but even when you add in foul shots, James ranks tied for 19th among qualified players (minimum 20 minutes per game).
For the coasting truthers, this is the hardest evidence that James is taking it easy. Shouldn't he be shooting more?
James said he often wonders that himself. Both he and Kevin Durant have played several games without their co-pilots this season, but James' shot attempts haven't sky-rocketed like Durant's have.
"I do get jealous, I'm not gonna lie," James said. "I get jealous sometimes when I look over at KD and he's like 16-for-32 and then 14-for-34. ... Man."
But that might require a different approach.
"First of all, you have to have an unbelievable mindset to get up 30 shots," James said. "I always think about it, though. If I get up high-20s, 30 shots a game, what could I do today, with the way I'm playing?"
It's a question many basketball observers have asked, too. Heat coach Erik Spoelstra has said that if James was focused on scoring, he could "realistically" average 37 points per game.
But it's not as simple as "shoot more, win more." The Heat are 8-2 in James' 10 highest-usage games this season and 9-1 in his 10 lowest-usage games.
"I'm not much of a forced-shot guy," James said. "But there are games where I have it going, and then at the end of the game, I'm like, damn, I shot just 12-for-16? Why don't I get up at least six or seven more? I definitely notice it."
But the Heat's pace-and-space offense thrives on James' rare ability to create for himself and for others. The thinking is that Miami, which owns the second-most efficient offense in the land, has found a healthy equilibrium in which teams can't load up on James for fear that he'll hit the open teammate. As soon as he starts putting on the blinders, it might force an identity crisis for himself and his team.
"I think part of it is our offense," James said of his low shot total. "It puts us all in an equal-opportunity situation."
This is true, but the offense is also largely the same one that saw him shoot far more (18.1 field goal attempts) just two seasons ago.
Ultimately, though, James might not be that type of player anymore.
"I don't think it's part of my DNA," James says before cracking a smile. "But I think if my teammates came to me and said, 'Listen. Tonight, go off, let's see what you can do.' I think I could do it then."
The defense
Now consider this: The Heat have been 7.6 points per 100 possessions worse defensively with James on the floor, according to NBA.com. With him on the floor, the Heat have allowed 103.9 points per 100 possessions, which would rank 19th in the NBA. With him off the floor, the Heat have improved to 96.3 points allowed per 100 possessions, which would rank just behind the Indiana Pacers for second-best in the league.
It might be hard to believe that this is the same guy who drew Defensive Player of the Year buzz last season, but James' work on the defensive end has fallen off dramatically.
And it's not just the on-court/off-court numbers, either. James is currently blocking 0.3 shots per 36 minutes. That's less than half his career rate. Same as Kyle Korver, Stephen Curry and Matt Bonner. Fewer per minute than Kyrie Irving, Mo Williams and John Wall.
"I haven't gotten many chase-down blocks this year," James says. "Guys aren't challenging me as much. I mean, I've had a couple guys turn around and actually dribble the ball out."
That's true to some extent. James points to specific examples involving Landry Fields a few games ago, and J.J. Redikk, who pulled up for an awkward midrange jumper on a fast break and clanked it in November. But those are the exception rather than the rule. It's almost unbelievable that a player of James' off-the-charts athleticism and instincts has yet to tally two blocks in the same game this season.
James' steal rate has also tumbled, dropping to a career-low 1.3 per 36 minutes.
"I don't know why my blocks and steals are down, not quite sure," James says before joking, "Rio [Mario Chalmers] and D-Wade [Dwyane Wade] are always stealing everything. That's where my steals have gone."
Is James coasting?
By all accounts, James is a basketball genius. But there's a difference between what he can do and what he has done this season.
James can consistently guard positions 1 through 5, but that doesn't mean he has consistently guarded 1 through 5 this season. James can take over a game at will, but that doesn't mean he has taken over games at his will.
The impetus to do so, though, may not be there yet. The Heat are sitting comfortably as the No. 2 seed in a dreadful Eastern Conference, with a 7.5-game buffer in the standings and still within reach of the Pacers.
"
We'll see Wednesday how I'm coasting. You'll see the numbers I'll put up on Wednesday. Just watch.
" -- LeBron James
And consider the mileage. Counting preseason, regular season and postseason, James has played more games than any NBA player since joining the Heat back in 2010 -- 340 games and nearly 13,000 minutes in all.
So for James, this isn't coasting. It's more like energy management.
"I cannot coast," James said, "because I don't know if the next game will be the last game I've ever played. It's my mindset, when I get out on the floor, I gotta go hard. I don't know where it came from, the way I was brought up, the way I played when I was a kid."
To be clear, James even in second gear is better than just about every player in the game. His 29.3 player efficiency rating is still second in the league behind Durant, even if it's down from last season's league-leading 31.7 rate. By every measure, James remains a dominant force overall -- even if this Heat season feels like an 82-game preseason.
But James' numbers do speak volumes.
"I'm listening to the numbers. Even though I'm not a big numbers guy, I do my part," James said. "Maybe I do have to start ramping it up a little but more."
With two days off this weekend and a refreshing visit to the White House on Tuesday, James promises we'll see a different James against the 17-19 Washington Wizards.
"We'll see Wednesday how I'm coasting," James said jokingly as he made his way into the Heat locker room on Monday. "You'll see the numbers I'll put up on Wednesday. Just watch."
Championship game predictions
After another exciting weekend of playoff football, the four best teams in the NFL remain. In the NFC, the San Francisco 49ers, coming off two straight postseason road wins, travel to Seattle to take on a Seahawks team they lost to 29-3 in Week 2 and 19-17 in Week 14. In the AFC, the Denver Broncos host the New England Patriots, who beat them 34-31 in OT in New England in Week 12.
Will Peyton Manning reach his third Super Bowl or will Tom Brady reach his sixth? Will the 49ers make it back-to-back Super Bowl appearances or will Seattle get back into the big game for the first time since 2006?
Let's preview each game by looking at which team has the advantage on offense, defense and special teams, along with an X factor. I'll also give my pick on each game.
New England Patriots at Denver Broncos
Offense: Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are the constants on this team, but I've been very impressed with how this offense has adjusted to fit the personnel at its disposal. Without Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez, they've turned into a power running team over the course of this season. Their big plays come off of play-action, and LeGarrette Blount has revitalized his career in New England. This is a guy who has enough speed to take it the distance, but the power to run over people, as well.
The Patriots like to bring in Michael Hoomanawanui as a sixth offensive lineman to pair with James Develin at fullback and dictate tempo. New England's offensive line has done a great job of blocking eight-man fronts and getting to the second level of the defense. According to ESPN Stats & Information, they have averaged 5.8 yards per rush and 200.3 yards per game inside the tackles the past three games. And Blount had 146 rush yards before contact, so this O-line is simply moving defenders out of the way. On third downs, Brady has looked for Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen coming out of the backfield (they combined for 20 of his 25 passing targets on Sunday). The Patriots can go no-huddle to change the tempo, but they need to run the ball effectively to win this game.
We all know what Manning can do at this point in his career, and he played a terrific game on Sunday against San Diego. He has a great receiving corps, and likes to read the defense from the inside out, working in between the hash marks. He's a pure distributor of the football, will find the open man and notices the smallest details of defensive coverages. If New England loads up the box with eight men to stop the run, he'll throw it out to Demaryius Thomas or Eric Decker and give them a chance to beat a cornerback one-on-one on the outside.
Denver's rushing attack has also improved over the course of the season (15th in the regular season with 117.1 yards per game), and Manning won't be afraid to check to a run with Montee Ball or Knowshon Moreno if New England plays its safeties back. It will be a chess match between Belichick and Manning all game long.
Advantage: Even. These are both tremendous offenses with elite QBs, a variety of weapons and big playbooks.
Defense: Denver plays a 4-3, but uses 3-4 fronts and has struggled to get pressure on opposing QBs with Von Miller out. This defense is vulnerable on the back end, and will be even more stressed with starting CB Chris Harris out with a torn ACL. Expect Belichick to target Quentin Jammer, who struggled against Keenan Allen in the second half on Sunday. Denver needs Shaun Phillips, Jeremy Mincey and others to get pressure on Brady, and it needs Terrance Knighton to eat up blockers in the middle and be stout against the run. Denver's top priority on defense must be stopping New England's rushing attack, ideally without bringing that eighth man into the box.
New England's defense uses both 4-3 and 3-4 fronts, is opportunistic and Belichick does a great job of taking away the primary receiver on opposing offenses. He'll mix man and zone, and even though this defense gives up yards, it clamps down in the red zone (16th in red zone TD percentage for the regular season). Jamie Collinsjumped out to me last week, and will be a huge factor if he can cover Julius Thomas without help. Aqib Talib is capable of blanketing one of Denver's pass-catchers, but I'm not sure New England has the personnel to keep up with Wes Welker in the slot.
Advantage: Slight edge to Denver.
Special teams: Both kickers have made clutch kicks in their careers, but Broncos return man Trindon Holliday makes the difference here. Decker averaged 22 yards a punt return on Sunday, and Holliday is a threat to score a TD any time he touches the ball. Edelman is shifty as a punt returner, but Blount isn't nearly as dynamic a returner as Holliday.
Advantage: Denver.
X factor: Aqib Talib. Talib is one corner who is fast enough to stick with Demaryius Thomas on the outside, but physical enough to cover Julius Thomas when he flexes out. It will be very interesting to see how Belichick deploys Talib, and which strength he tries to take away from Manning. I love Talib's ball skills and ability to be physical with WRs at the line of scrimmage. He must play well for New England to win.
Prediction: Manning played a terrific game in the divisional round against San Diego, but as we saw, he needs help from his teammates. Decker bobbled a perfect pass, turning it into an interception, and Julius Thomas had a costly fumble. Peyton's playmakers need to show up for this one. I picked Denver before the season to make the Super Bowl, and I think the Broncos get it done here. This offense is too good and the defense should be able to slow down Brady & Co. just enough to get the win. Broncos.
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Offense: There is no question that Seattle's passing offense is struggling right now. Russell Wilson missed some throws on inside slants that he needs to make on Sunday, but his cast of WRs isn't very strong. There is no one on the outside who scares a defense, with the exception of Percy Harvin (and his status is unknown), and they don't threaten defenses vertically. As a result, Wilson is holding the ball too long and not trusting his initial reads, as he showed on several occasions against the Saints on Sunday.
The rushing game has been tremendous with Marshawn Lynch, who had an amazing 66 of 140 rushing yards on Sunday after contact, but they've been bailed out by their defense too often. If they can't run the ball against San Francisco's stout front seven, this offense will struggle to move the ball.
On the other side, San Francisco's offense is evolving, and has been a different unit since Michael Crabtree returned in Week 13. With Vernon Davis healthy, they now have two pass-catchers who can win one-on-one against man coverage. Having both of them on the field also means more space for Anquan Boldin to operate. Boldin had a big game on Sunday in Carolina (eight catches, 136 yards), but really struggled against Seattle's press coverage in Week 2 (one catch, 4 yards).
The 49ers have one of the best offensive lines in the league, and have been running the ball extremely effectively in the postseason, averaging 146.5 yards per game. Frank Gore is a very consistent runner between the tackles and also is terrific in blitz pickup. Colin Kaepernick has been making better decisions with the football, but still has a few errant throws every game. He must make the correct reads against an opportunistic Seattle defense.
Advantage: San Francisco. The 49ers simply have a more dynamic unit right now.
Defense: This Seattle defense is arguably the best in the league, and doesn't have any real weaknesses. It is even more dominant because of the imposing home-field advantage Seattle has with the 12th Man. On the back end, Earl Thomas is terrific at diagnosing plays and has tremendous closing speed, and Richard Sherman can shut down any receiver in bump-and-run on the outside. Seattle's corners are very physical at the line of scrimmage and use their length very well to disrupt receivers.
The Seahawks' linebackers are very good both in pass coverage and against the run. Seattle has solid run defenders in the middle of the line like Red Bryant, and an assortment of pass-rushers on the outside including Bruce Irvin, Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril, who can get to Kaepernick. They've been successful against San Francisco in the past by not having to blitz Kaepernick and getting to him with four pass-rushers. However, Seattle must make sure that its defensive ends are disciplined in their rush lanes and don't get too far upfield. Otherwise, Kaepernick can use his legs to his advantage. It's important to flush him to his left, as he likes to throw more on the run while going right.
San Francisco has a fantastic defensive unit, as well, including Aldon Smith and Justin Smith, and Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman at linebacker. They are stout against the run (third in the NFL during the regular season) and Willis and Bowman, like Seattle's linebackers, never have to come off the field because they can hold up in pass protection.
San Francisco's corners aren't as good as Seattle's, but are very solid. If Carlos Rogers is healthy enough to play, that would provide a big boost for this unit.
Advantage: Seattle. With the 12th Man, this is the best defense in the league. They have a plus-11 turnover differential at home. If you get behind in down and distance, forget about moving the ball on them.
Special teams: Phil Dawson has been extremely consistent for the 49ers, as has Steven Hauschka for the Seahawks (both were 3-of-3 on FGs last week; Dawson is 6-of-6 in the postseason). Harvin and Golden Tate are much more dynamic returners than LaMichael James. Andy Lee is a great weapon to flip field position at punter for San Francisco.
Advantage: Seattle, especially if Harvin can play.
X factor: Percy Harvin. There is a reason this team traded three picks, including a first-rounder, to get this guy. He is simply special in the open field, and has elite acceleration and change-of-direction ability. You could see his impact last week when he ran a "jet" fly sweep for 9 yards in the second quarter. The next play, Harvin was lined up on the left in a bunch, three-WR set. The threat of Harvin drew the defense's attention (and personnel), allowing Lynch to score easily on a 15-yard draw play. Harvin is also a special kick returner.
Prediction: This is going to be a great game, and both teams are similarly built with a mobile QB, strong defense and the desire to run the ball. I'm a little nervous about Seattle's passing offense being able to move the ball, but I believe they'll do enough -- particularly running the ball with Lynch -- to build a lead. Once they get a lead, San Francisco won't be able to do enough on offense with that defense and crowd behind the Seahawks. Seattle moves on to New Jersey. Seahawks.
Offense: There is no question that Seattle's passing offense is struggling right now. Russell Wilson missed some throws on inside slants that he needs to make on Sunday, but his cast of WRs isn't very strong. There is no one on the outside who scares a defense, with the exception of Percy Harvin (and his status is unknown), and they don't threaten defenses vertically. As a result, Wilson is holding the ball too long and not trusting his initial reads, as he showed on several occasions against the Saints on Sunday.
The rushing game has been tremendous with Marshawn Lynch, who had an amazing 66 of 140 rushing yards on Sunday after contact, but they've been bailed out by their defense too often. If they can't run the ball against San Francisco's stout front seven, this offense will struggle to move the ball.
On the other side, San Francisco's offense is evolving, and has been a different unit since Michael Crabtree returned in Week 13. With Vernon Davis healthy, they now have two pass-catchers who can win one-on-one against man coverage. Having both of them on the field also means more space for Anquan Boldin to operate. Boldin had a big game on Sunday in Carolina (eight catches, 136 yards), but really struggled against Seattle's press coverage in Week 2 (one catch, 4 yards).
The 49ers have one of the best offensive lines in the league, and have been running the ball extremely effectively in the postseason, averaging 146.5 yards per game. Frank Gore is a very consistent runner between the tackles and also is terrific in blitz pickup. Colin Kaepernick has been making better decisions with the football, but still has a few errant throws every game. He must make the correct reads against an opportunistic Seattle defense.
Advantage: San Francisco. The 49ers simply have a more dynamic unit right now.
Defense: This Seattle defense is arguably the best in the league, and doesn't have any real weaknesses. It is even more dominant because of the imposing home-field advantage Seattle has with the 12th Man. On the back end, Earl Thomas is terrific at diagnosing plays and has tremendous closing speed, and Richard Sherman can shut down any receiver in bump-and-run on the outside. Seattle's corners are very physical at the line of scrimmage and use their length very well to disrupt receivers.
The Seahawks' linebackers are very good both in pass coverage and against the run. Seattle has solid run defenders in the middle of the line like Red Bryant, and an assortment of pass-rushers on the outside including Bruce Irvin, Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril, who can get to Kaepernick. They've been successful against San Francisco in the past by not having to blitz Kaepernick and getting to him with four pass-rushers. However, Seattle must make sure that its defensive ends are disciplined in their rush lanes and don't get too far upfield. Otherwise, Kaepernick can use his legs to his advantage. It's important to flush him to his left, as he likes to throw more on the run while going right.
San Francisco has a fantastic defensive unit, as well, including Aldon Smith and Justin Smith, and Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman at linebacker. They are stout against the run (third in the NFL during the regular season) and Willis and Bowman, like Seattle's linebackers, never have to come off the field because they can hold up in pass protection.
San Francisco's corners aren't as good as Seattle's, but are very solid. If Carlos Rogers is healthy enough to play, that would provide a big boost for this unit.
Advantage: Seattle. With the 12th Man, this is the best defense in the league. They have a plus-11 turnover differential at home. If you get behind in down and distance, forget about moving the ball on them.
Special teams: Phil Dawson has been extremely consistent for the 49ers, as has Steven Hauschka for the Seahawks (both were 3-of-3 on FGs last week; Dawson is 6-of-6 in the postseason). Harvin and Golden Tate are much more dynamic returners than LaMichael James. Andy Lee is a great weapon to flip field position at punter for San Francisco.
Advantage: Seattle, especially if Harvin can play.
X factor: Percy Harvin. There is a reason this team traded three picks, including a first-rounder, to get this guy. He is simply special in the open field, and has elite acceleration and change-of-direction ability. You could see his impact last week when he ran a "jet" fly sweep for 9 yards in the second quarter. The next play, Harvin was lined up on the left in a bunch, three-WR set. The threat of Harvin drew the defense's attention (and personnel), allowing Lynch to score easily on a 15-yard draw play. Harvin is also a special kick returner.
Prediction: This is going to be a great game, and both teams are similarly built with a mobile QB, strong defense and the desire to run the ball. I'm a little nervous about Seattle's passing offense being able to move the ball, but I believe they'll do enough -- particularly running the ball with Lynch -- to build a lead. Once they get a lead, San Francisco won't be able to do enough on offense with that defense and crowd behind the Seahawks. Seattle moves on to New Jersey. Seahawks.