Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

Skooby

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Chris Jones, DT, New England Patriots

By no fault of his own, Jones has been thrust into a prominent role in the decimated middle of the Patriots' defense. The great Vince Wilfork, Tommy Kelly and now Brandon Spikes are all on injured reserve.

Spikes was a liability in coverage, but might be the best interior run-stuffer in the NFL. Jones simply isn't very talented. He struggles to handle a double-team, often gets overpowered in the run game and offers very little as a pass-rusher on the interior. Unfortunately for the Patriots, they don't have great alternatives. Jones' counterpart on the interior, Joe Vellano, offers little more. Isaac Sopoaga has a pedigree in this league as an interior presence, but he has been underwhelming since New England traded for him.

Ideally, the Colts would love to attack the interior of this defense with a power back like Trent Richardson to shorten the game and force New England's worst defensive players to make play after play. But it will be Donald Brown getting the bulk of the carries, and do the Colts have the interior offensive linemen to make that happen? That brings us to ...


Mike McGlynn, OG, Indianapolis Colts

When the Colts have the ball, it will be very interesting to watch the interior line battles, as it is truly a matchup of "weakness versus weakness."

We know that Bill Belichick's defensive philosophy is to take away whatever the offense does best, which in this case means trying to eliminate T.Y. Hilton. You would think that would lead to great rushing opportunities, but the interior of Indianapolis' offensive line is a mess.

At left guard, Hugh Thornton hasn't played well, but he is a rookie with some upside, while center Samson Satele is what he is at this point, which is a very average all-around player. But it is McGlynn that has hurt this line the most. Best suited to play center, the big-bodied but heavy-footed McGlynn has been consistently beaten in one-on-one matchups, especially in the run game, where he is often seen bending at the waist and overextending to try to reach his target.

Donald Brown is sure to get the majority of the rushing attempts, and it will be interesting to see how successful he might be, especially in terms of sustainability on interior runs for four quarters. Protection for Andrew Luck will also be a question mark.


Wesley Woodyard, LB, Denver Broncos

Von Miller is out for the year, and while Danny Trevathan and Woodyard have very good speed, this linebacking unit (along with safety Duke Ihenacho) has struggled quite a bit in coverage against running backs out of the backfield as well as tight ends. Well, it just so happens that San Diego has backs and tight ends that can do plenty of damage.

The venerable Antonio Gates remains a very solid contributor, while his successor, Ladarius Green, is dripping with upside. Woodyard isn't a bad player but struggles against the size of such tight ends, which can be especially problematic in the end zone. Ronnie Brown is an accomplished, but not dynamic, receiving option andRyan Mathews has improved in this area as well. But this could be a big Danny Woodhead game, as he has a massive advantage over the middle of Denver's defense, and Woodyard in particular.

It would not be surprising to see Woodhead operating out of the slot quite a bit or even out wide, where he could draw a linebacker out with him in man coverage.


Shareece Wright, CB, San Diego Chargers

The Chargers' defense was awful for much of the season. But after allowing just 10 points last week -- and making A.J. Green nearly invisible -- the Chargers average just over 16 points allowed over their past six games, winning five in a row while John Pagano has incorporated more creative blitz packages and a wide variety of coverages very effectively. Pagano's unpredictability has been a great asset for a defense that lacks high-end talent, especially in the secondary.

Such tactics caused the Broncos' offense major problems in the most recent meeting between these two teams, but San Diego's cornerbacks remain a huge concern, and this is one of the worst overall coverage units in the NFL. Starters Richard Marshall and Wright have been liabilities, and the depth behind them is poor, although things have improved once Marshall was inserted as the starter over Derek Cox. Safety Eric Weddle is the only member of this secondary who can be considered above average, and the Chargers will align him all over the defense.

Of course, Peyton Manning will learn from the last meeting and should target Wright without relent, as well San Diego's depth cover men.
 

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Ranking teams by peak value

It started innocently enough with a tweet from Insider's Amin Elhassan: "If everyone on every roster were in their prime, would the Nets be the best team in the NBA?" It's a fun question, and one my wins above replacement rating (WARP) can help answer.

For every player, I found their "prime" season -- their best by WARP, including 2013-14 prorated to a full 82 games -- and took the top 12 players on each team as their score, since we don't really care about how good the very end of the bench was in its prime. Full rankings follow at the end, but let's count down the top 10.

10. Denver Nuggets (79.2 WARP)

Befitting their old reputation as star-less contenders, the Nuggets edge out the Houston Rockets and their duo of James Harden (15.1) and Dwight Howard (20.5) for the last spot in the top 10, despite not having a single All-Star on the roster. Andre Miller's spectacular 2001-02 season (15.8 WARP), one of the best ever by an All-Star snub, is one reason. Beyond that, Denver does have admirable depth, with 12 players who have posted at least 2.7 WARP in a season.

9. Oklahoma City Thunder (82.5 WARP)

The issue with using stats to answer the question is that they can't look forward as easily as they can backward. More than any other team, the Thunder are hurt by this limitation. In time, Reggie Jackson (4.7) and Jeremy Lamb (4.0) will surely exceed their current production, but for now, Oklahoma City's best "prime" player after the Kevin Durant (23.6) -- Russell Westbrook (16.4) -- Serge Ibaka (10.3) troika is Derek Fisher (5.5 WARP in 2005-06).

8. Detroit Pistons (84.4 WARP)

While the Pistons owe much of their lofty ranking to veteran Chauncey Billups, who is far from the prime that saw him post 18.2 WARP in 2005-06, this figure still reflects how disappointing Detroit has been this season. The Pistons' other four starters should be in or very near their prime, yet the team has lost its last six games by an average of nearly 18 points per game. Yikes.

7. New York Knicks (84.6 WARP)

In terms of All-NBA and All-Star appearances on the roster, the Knicks rank an impressive sixth. Too many of those belong to Amar'e Stoudemire (16.0 WARP in prime) and Metta World Peace (9.7), who have been rendered limited by knee injuries, making New York one of the best examples of a team that would have been far better five years ago.

6. Los Angeles Lakers (86.6 WARP)

You'll recall that the Lakers were a popular answer to this question a year ago, when their starting lineup had combined for an incredible 32 All-NBA appearances. Without Dwight Howard, World Peace and reserve Antawn Jamison, this year's roster is slightly less star-studded. And the Lakers' two most accomplished players, Kobe Bryant (20.4) and Steve Nash (17.8), have played six games apiece, making this exercise a total hypothetical.

5. Los Angeles Clippers (89.0 WARP)

Of the teams at the top of the list, the Clippers are closest to prime production. The exception is Jamison (10.3 WARP), now a below-replacement reserve. Aside from him, Jamal Crawford (7.6 WARP in 2003-04) is the only other key player more than five years removed from his best season by WARP. Stars Chris Paul (25.6) and Blake Griffin (13.1) are at or near the top of their games.

4. San Antonio Spurs (92.1 WARP)

The Spurs would surely welcome the chance to battle opponents with prime Tim Duncan (23.4 WARP), Manu Ginobili (15.4) and Tony Parker (10.3). However, they suffer by this method from not having any other All-Stars on the roster. Their fourth-best player in terms of prime production is actually Boris Diaw (7.5), thanks to his impressive 2005-06 season in Phoenix, though Kawhi Leonard (6.8) will surely eventually have something to say about that.

3. Dallas Mavericks (105.5 WARP)

Watching Dirk Nowitzki (19.7), Shawn Marion (19.2) and Vince Carter (16.5) in their primes with Rick Carlisle as their coach would have been incredibly entertaining. And don't forget that the Mavericks also get the benefit of an All-Star Devin Harris, from his 2008-09 season in New Jersey. A prime Dallas squad could score with anyone, though it would probably struggle at the defensive end of the floor.

The top two

That leaves us with the consensus top two teams left, who happen to face off Friday on ESPN ...

2. Miami Heat (124.9 WARP);

1. Brooklyn Nets (125.8 WARP)
 

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If Friday's game was being contested by players in their primes (and, in the case of Brook Lopez, healthy), let's look at the rotations the two teams could throw out.

Prime Heat vs Nets
PlayerWARPYearPlayerWARPYear
Kevin Garnett26.32004LeBron James26.92009
Andrei Kirilenko19.92004Dwyane Wade23.82009
Paul Pierce18.42002Ray Allen17.82001
Deron Williams13.42010Chris Bosh12.42010
Jason Terry12.72002Rashard Lewis11.12008
Brook Lopez10.22013Shane Battier7.62006
Joe Johnson9.12009Chris Andersen6.92009
Andray Blatche6.52013Mario Chalmers6.12009

The Nets are slightly deeper, with six All-Stars -- not counting Jason Terry, who easily could have made it in his prime -- to Miami's five. And they have an MVP of their own in Kevin Garnett, who was not far off LeBron James' rarified air back in 2003-04. Lastly, Brooklyn benefits from Kirilenko's 2003-04 season. Since his game fell off shortly thereafter, it's easy to forget how good a young Kirilenko was. In 2003-04, he led a post-John Stockton/Karl Malone Utah team without another 1,000-point scorer to an improbable 42-40 record.

At the same time, Miami improves as well. Not only would Dwyane Wade's knee problems disappear, the Heat could throw out an All-NBA Ray Allen and an All-Star Rashard Lewis as part of a lethal smallball lineup that the Nets would struggle to defend with both Garnett and Lopez on the floor.

Back in reality, Brooklyn will be without Williams and Lopez tonight because of injuries, and Garnett, Kirilenko, Pierce and Terry will all be limited to some extent or another. That's the trouble with loading up on big names who are no longer near their primes. Injuries and minute restrictions can force a veteran team deep into its bench. The Nets thought they had that covered, but so far they've been unable to make up for Garnett's sudden decline and a season-ending injury to Lopez, one of their younger players.

If the story sounds familiar, it's because something similar happened to last season's Lakers, who would have ranked third on this list. That doesn't necessarily mean any "superteam" is destined to fail, especially if the stars are in their early 30s rather than their late 30s, but it does suggest caution is in order with veterans ... unless your general manager has a time machine that can put everyone in their prime.

Complete prime WARP rankings
TeamWARPAll-NBAAll-StarBest PlayerWARPYear
Brooklyn125.81636Kevin Garnett26.32004
Miami124.92038LeBron James26.92009
Dallas105.51624Dirk Nowitzki19.72003
L.A. Clippers89.0711Chris Paul25.62009
San Antonio92.11921Tim Duncan23.42002
L.A. Lakers86.62528Kobe Bryant20.42003
New York84.61214Amar'e Stoudemire16.02008
Detroit84.435Chauncey Billups18.22006
Oklahoma City82.577Kevin Durant23.62014
Denver79.200Andre Miller15.82002
Houston79.088Dwight Howard20.52011
Atlanta76.324Elton Brand18.92006
Golden State75.659Stephen Curry16.82014
Memphis73.323Zach Randolph12.22011
Chicago73.026Derrick Rose16.62011
Indiana71.015Paul George17.22014
Portland67.312Damian Lillard11.72014
New Orleans66.501Anthony Davis14.52014
Phoenix65.000Emeka Okafor10.02007
Milwaukee61.902Ersan Ilyasova9.42012
Minnesota60.512Kevin Love21.92014
Washington57.500John Wall11.92014
Toronto57.000Kyle Lowry14.82014
Utah56.600Richard Jefferson10.12006
Boston55.315Rajon Rondo13.62010
Sacramento54.500DeMarcus Cousins16.02014
Charlotte53.900Al Jefferson11.02008
Cleveland37.501Kyrie Irving9.72014
Philadelphia35.500Jason Richardson10.62008
Orlando31.701Arron Afflalo8.32014
 

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Top 10 power forwards for 2013-14

Who would we pick if we were choosing up sides on the playground for a game today? Our midseason update of player rankings continues to address that question for the last time, as we finish with the power forwards.

In basketball analysis, when we mention a team's "frontcourt," we're typically referring to the traditional big man positions of center and power forward. This season, centers and power forwards are producing roughly the same value across the league, with the 4s just ahead of the 5s for second place, well behind point guards.

TrueWARP by position
PositionPct.
PG30.7
PF22.4
C22.3
SG12.9
SF11.7

The general job description for centers has changed little over the decades, though back-to-the-basket post play is a rarer skill than it used to be. On the other hand, the power forward position has evolved dramatically and now boasts the most diversity of skill sets among the five traditional positions. In these rankings, there are natural small forwards like Carmelo Anthony, floor spacers like Ryan Anderson, defensive enforcers like Serge Ibaka and true centers like Greg Monroe. Whenever you want to know what kind of lineup is on the floor, just figure out who is playing the 4.

The summer's power forward rankings can be found here. Each player's "TrueWARP" calculation -- a blend of a player's preseason baseline forecast and his 2013-14 results -- is noted, along with his 2013-14 WARP and league-wide rank in WARP for the season to date.
Because we're extrapolating from a half-season of real results, the methodology was a little bit different from our forecast-based summer rankings. See the explainer at the end of the article for how these rankings were derived.

1. LeBron James, Miami Heat
TrueWARP: 23.1 | 2013-14 WARP: 8.3 | Overall Rank: 4

With a handful of players threatening James' domain as the unchallenged MVP of the league, it will be fascinating to see how he responds over the next couple of months. You get the feeling that James is lying in the weeds. His usage rate (29.4 percent) is the lowest it's been in nine years. His efficiency is off the charts -- a league-high .671 true shooting percentage. Turnovers have been an issue for James, but you still get the feeling that if one among Kevin Durant, Kevin Love, Chris Paul or Paul George is really going to wrest the MVP crown, they'll have to fend off a big second half from the King. Then again, James might no longer care about such things and might be simply preparing himself for a run at championship No. 3.

2. Kevin Love, Minnesota Timberwolves
TrueWARP: 19.1 | 2013-14 WARP: 8.6 | Overall Rank: 2


Love has roared back from his injury-marred 2012-13 season with an MVP-caliber campaign. You will notice that in 2013-14 WARP, Love currently ranks ahead of James, and only Kevin Durant has a higher total across all positions. Love's raw scoring and rebounding averages are right on target with his last full healthy season, but he's never combined this level of efficiency (.591 true shooting percentage) with this level of volume (28.1 percent usage rate). He's also averaging a career-high 4.1 assists per contest. If the Timberwolves can go on a run and get into the postseason, Love will garner a lot of support in the MVP voting.

3. Ryan Anderson, New Orleans Pelicans
TrueWARP: 11.9 | 2013-14 WARP: 2.8 | Overall Rank: 48


Anderson was putting up an even stronger performance in his second season with New Orleans than he did in his first before going down with a herniated disk. Anderson has never shot the ball better, which is saying a lot. His 3-point percentage is a career-best 40.9 percent, and his 59-for-62 showing from the line translates to a league-best 95.2 percent. Anderson's rebounding numbers are off a bit, but his turnover rate is the lowest in the league among qualifying players. There may be no more valuable role player in the NBA.

4. Carmelo Anthony, New York Knicks
TrueWARP: 11.6 | 2013-14 WARP: 4.6 | Overall Rank: 14


No matter how you feel about Anthony, you have to give him credit for his approach to this trying season. With New York's hopes teetering on collapse, Anthony has logged a career-high and league-leading 39.3 minutes per contest. He's backed off his own offensive game a little and instead is hitting the defensive glass at a rate nearly 6 percent higher than his career baseline. Anthony's turnover rate is at a career low. During the Knicks' current stretch of five wins in six games, Anthony is shooting 56.7 percent from 3-point range.

5. Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers
TrueWARP: 11.6 | 2013-14 WARP: 4.5 | Overall Rank: 17

Griffin already has 19 games of at least 20 points and 10 rebounds this season, half of the games the Clippers have played. That consistency is one of Griffin's hallmarks, as is his efficiency. His shooting is down a touch from last season, but he's compensated with more trips to the foul line. Griffin has had the ball in his hands more often since Paul was injured, and he's averaging more than five assists in the three games without Paul. That willingness to find open teammates will serve the Clippers well as opposing defenses focus their game plans on stopping Griffin.

6. Paul Millsap, Atlanta Hawks[/paste:font]
TrueWARP: 10.2 | 2013-14 WARP: 4.3 | Overall Rank: 18

Millsap has proved to be a worthy investment in his first season for the Hawks. He's putting up basically the same numbers he did in Utah with one major exception: the development of a 3-point game. He attempted 113 3s during his first seven NBA seasons combined. This season, he's already taken 90, and with a 40 percent success rate, it has turned Millsap into a prototype for today's power forward. Unfortunately, Millsap's usage rate has spiked in the seven games since Al Horford was injured, and his .390 effective field goal percentage during that span suggests he's trying to do too much.

7. LaMarcus Aldridge, Portland Trail Blazers
TrueWARP: 9.1 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.7 | Overall Rank: 29



Aldridge finished No. 11 in the summer ratings, but he has soared into the top 10 on the wings of his most prolific season yet. Aldridge has taken a career-high 20.9 shots per game and even though his shooting percentages are at a career low, he's averaging 23.7 points per game. Playing on his most talented team yet, Aldridge has sliced his turnover rate to a minuscule level. Only Al Jefferson commits miscues less frequently among high-usage players.

8. Serge Ibaka, Oklahoma City Thunder
TrueWARP: 8.7 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.0 | Overall Rank: 42



Ibaka's shooting has regressed since last season, though he remains an effective scorer overall. He's taking more shots, which is no surprise given the absence of Russell Westbrook. His 2-point field goal percentage has fallen from .591 to .527, with drop-offs coming both inside and outside the paint. There really isn't anything to be concerned about as there is little in Ibaka's dip that can't be explained by randomness.

9. Dirk Nowitzki, Dallas Mavericks
TrueWARP: 8.2 | 2013-14 WARP: 4.6 | Overall Rank: 15


It has been a nice comeback season for future Hall of Famer Nowitzki, who didn't crack the top 10 in the summer rankings. Nowitzki is above his career marks in all the shooting percentage categories, and he's still creating plenty of offense while rarely turning the ball over. There is less asked of Nowitzki physically -- he doesn't draw nearly as many fouls as he used to, and his rebound percentages are the lowest they've been since his early days in the league. However, the skill part of Nowitzki's arsenal remains elite, and he should still be a foundation player for the Mavericks for at least the next couple of years.
 

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10. John Henson, Milwaukee Bucks
TrueWARP: 7.8 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.1 | Overall Rank: 39


Henson has doubled his minutes this season, and his per-minute numbers have held up well in the larger role. He has become one of the league's top shot-blockers and the skill part of his offensive arsenal is improved. Entering the season, I thought a key metric for the Bucks would be how lineups that feature Henson and Larry Sanders fare. So far this season, they have barely shared the court at all, though of course Sanders has missed much of the campaign. With Milwaukee headed for the bottom of the league standings, let's hope we see more of that configuration over the rest of the season.

Next five: Kenneth Faried, Denver Nuggets; Terrence Jones, Houston Rockets; Greg Monroe, Detroit Pistons; Thaddeus Young, Philadelphia 76ers; Zach Randolph, Memphis Grizzlies.

Jones is the classic example of a player whose solid level of play in a part-time role has translated nicely into a starting job. If he can develop his 3-point stroke, he will be a valuable player for many years to come. At 22, he's got plenty of time to figure that out. Young has flourished in his new role as a featured scorer for the Sixers. After Young abandoned his long-range shot under Doug Collins, first-year coach Brett Brown has brought it back, and Young is hitting nearly 41 percent from deep.

Also notable: 16. Amir Johnson, Toronto Raptors; 17. David Lee, Golden State Warriors; 18. Jordan Hill, Los Angeles Lakers; 20. David West, Indiana Pacers; 24. Josh McRoberts, Charlotte Bobcats; 25. Markieff Morris, Phoenix Suns; 38. Taj Gibson, Chicago Bulls; 39. Kevin Garnett, Brooklyn Nets; 40. Carlos Boozer, Chicago Bulls.

There are a lot of interesting names outside of the top 15. Lee's TrueWARP is dragged down by his pessimistic projection. At 31, ATH saw him taking a step back that really hasn't occurred, though his .533 individual winning percentage is not the stuff of All-Stars. Hill and Morris are two of the most improved players in the league, while no one has declined more than Garnett. McRoberts has strangely emerged as a playmaker down in Charlotte.

As for West, ATH has a pretty good read on him. He was projected for a .507 winning percentage, and that's exactly where he's at. West obviously fits in well with Indiana's devastating starting lineup, but he ranks just 87th in 2013-14 WARP. Any lingering questions about whether Chicago should amnesty Boozer this summer can perhaps be answered with a glimpse of these standings. According to ATH, Boozer is no longer as good as the player who backs him up, Taj Gibson. On a team desperate for efficient scoring, Boozer has a career-low .491 true shooting percentage.

How Top 10 rankings were derived

1. Players are based on TrueWARP, which is an attempt to measure the current actual value of each player's performance at this point of his career. The "WARP" part of the moniker comes from wins above replacement, while the "True" was added because you have to call it something. Henry Abbott was not consulted during the process of naming this metric, but hopefully he won't mind.

2. TrueWARP is a blend of a player's preseason baseline forecast and his 2013-14 results. The degree to which his season winning percentage has regressed against his forecast depends on his experience. Projections for younger players, especially rookies, have a much higher error bar than those for veteran players. Thus, the younger a player is, the more weight his 2013-14 results carry.

3. WARP is a calculation based on winning percentage, or per-possession efficiency, and playing time. For the playing time component, I've used actual minutes per game for this season to capture the size of role each player is holding down. Each player's TrueWARP is calculated on a per-82-game basis to filter out durability issues. We're strictly looking at a player's quality of on-court performance, not how often he's able to go out and apply it. Obviously in the real world, the durability issues regarding players like Derrick Rose, Kobe Bryant and Brook Lopez have to be carefully considered.

4. Grouping players by position is always an inexact science, but I focused on how players have been deployed this season. The stats website 82games.com uses play-by-play data to track the percentage of time a player is used at each position, and I've used that as the basis for my grouping. Position classification is nebulous, but think of it like this: Players occupy a certain space on the floor, and the space they are assigned is usually determined by the players they share the court with. So Carmelo Anthony may be a natural 3, but the majority of the time the Knicks put him in lineups in which he is a 4.
 

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Top 10 point guards for 2013-14

Who would we pick if we were choosing up sides on the playground for a game today? Our midseason update of player rankings continues to address that question with the league's most loaded position: point guards. It's been written many times, but the way the professional game is played now, teams can't win without a capable offensive initiator. The defensive rules that open the floor and limit handchecking led to an explosion of pick-and-roll play. The proliferation of floor-spacing deep shooters has given the quick ball handlers working off all those ball screens room to operate.

Gradually, the pace of play has increased and lineups have gotten smaller. Teams began to seek smaller, quicker players who were as much of a scoring threat as they were a playmaker. Finally we reached a juncture where point guard became the most important position on the floor, even if you're a team that uses a non-traditional lead guard to run the offense. This season, once again teams are getting more value out of the point guard position than any other spot on the floor. (See chart.)

TrueWARP by position
PositionPct.
PG30.7
PF22.4
C22.3
SG12.9
SF11.7

As a result, it's harder to crack the top tier of a rankings system like this if you're classified as a point guard. Because there are five positions on the floor, only 50 players can be named as top-10 players at their spot in this rankings series. Currently, 17 point guards rank among the top 50 in TrueWARP.

The summer's point guard rankings can be found here. Each player's "TrueWARP" calculation -- a blend of a player's preseason baseline forecast and his 2013-14 results -- is noted, along with each player's 2013-14 WARP and league-wide rank in WARP for the season to date. Because we're extrapolating from a half-season of real results, the methodology was a little bit different from our forecast-based summer rankings. See the explainer at the end of the article for how these rankings were derived.

1. Chris Paul | Los Angeles Clippers
TrueWARP: 18.9 | 2013-14 WARP: 8.6 | Overall rank: 3


Early in the season, it looked like Paul was headed for a historically great season. He fell off a bit after that, and now he's on the shelf for three to five weeks with a shoulder separation. Still, he's done more than enough to maintain his top spot from the summer. Everything Paul has done is right smack on target with his lofty career standards.

2. Stephen Curry | Golden State Warriors
TrueWARP: 17.0 | 2013-14 WARP: 7.5 | Overall rank: 5


The game's most explosive shooter has jumped two spots in the ratings by honing his playmaking skills. Curry's shot has actually been off this season, at least for him. A career 43.8 percent 3-point shooter, Curry is at 39.6 percent this season, no small decline for a player averaging eight 3-point attempts per game. However, his PER is still at a career-best 22.3 thanks to his assist rate. Before this season, Curry's highest average of assists per 36 minutes was 6.8; this season, he's at 9.1.

3. Russell Westbrook | Oklahoma City Thunder
TrueWARP: 12.9 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.9 | Overall rank: 22


Westbrook's first injury didn't affect his projection since all the games he missed were in the playoffs. This season, Westbrook was right on target before being injured. His projected individual winning percentage was .646, and at the time he went down last month, he was at .642. Westbrook's shooting percentages hadn't completely recovered from his layoff, but he made up for that with a bigger effort on the boards, where he was averaging six caroms per contest.

4. Kyle Lowry | Toronto Raptors
TrueWARP: 12.2 | 2013-14 WARP: 5.5 | Overall rank: 9


It's tempting to type an appeal for people to just recognize that Lowry is pretty good, but he remains the subject of numerous trade rumors, which kind of undermines that sentiment. Lowry was a controversial pick as the No. 8 point guard in the summer rankings. Since then, he's gone out and played even better than his ATH forecast, and at present ranks ninth in the league in WARP. There have been two primary areas of improvement: Lowry is taking and making more 3s than ever before, and he's posting the lowest turnover rate of his career.

5. Damian Lillard | Portland Trail Blazers
TrueWARP: 11.3 | 2013-14 WARP: 5.0 | Overall rank: 12

With a better roster around him, Lillard has taken a big step forward from his Rookie of the Year 2012-13 campaign. He's become more of a scorer than a passer, and more of his possessions are terminating in 3-point shots and free throws, while fewer of them are chalked up to turnovers. He's improved from a league-average 3-point shooter to a knockdown, 45-percent marksman. Simply put, Lillard has played like an All-Star.

6. John Wall | Washington Wizards
TrueWARP: 10.9 | 2013-14 WARP: 4.2 | Overall rank: 19

We figured the Wizards' fortunes were tied directly to Wall's hoped-for improvement, and the former top pick has come through with a breakout season. He's still not a great shooter, but he's been more selective and thus has reduced his frequency of negative plays. The improvements to Wall's personal stat line are subtle, but the breakout can be found in this fact: Washington is on target to make the postseason for the first time in six seasons.

7. Kyrie Irving | Cleveland Cavaliers
TrueWARP: 10.9 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.7 | Overall rank: 28


Irving has fallen four spots since the summer as he's struggled to acclimate to the system installed by new coach Mike Brown. Irving has shot worse inside the arc, outside the arc and from the foul line. Not a good combination. However, Irving's true shooting percentage regressed to his career norm during December, and he started January with his most efficient game of the season.

8. Isaiah Thomas | Sacramento Kings
TrueWARP: 10.5 | 2013-14 WARP: 4.5 | Overall rank: 16


Thomas has been a per-minute star ever since entering the league, and now he's getting big minutes as the Kings' starting point guard. He's been fantastic. Thomas is shooting a career-best 42.2 percent from deep, and his foul-drawing rate inside the arc ranks 10th among qualifying point guards. Meanwhile, he's handing out assists at a career-best rate. As a result, the revamped Kings have a clear-cut big three on the offensive end in Thomas, DeMarcus Cousins and Rudy Gay.

9. Ty Lawson | Denver Nuggets
TrueWARP: 9.7 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.7 | Overall rank: 26

Lawson holds steady as the No. 9 point guard, but he has taken a different route to get there. Playing for the first time in a non-George Karl offense, Lawson has become even more of a driver, and is getting to the line with a career-high frequency. He's kicking out more, as well, and his assist rate is a career best. The trade-off has been a lower shooting percentage and more turnovers. What hasn't changed is that Lawson is Denver's most valuable commodity.

10. Mike Conley | Memphis Grizzlies
TrueWARP: 9.7 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.8 | Overall rank: 23


Conley's offensive contribution is at a career peak. His WARP indicators are undermined by Memphis' precipitous drop on the defensive end. The Grizzlies have slipped from second to 24th on defense, with a drop from third to 21st in forcing turnovers. That's reflected directly in Conley's defensive rating. That might be unfair, but in a statistical sense you've got to penalize the players on the court even when the real culprit might be standing on the sidelines. (And that refers to Marc Gasol's absence as much as it does to first-time coach Dave Joerger.)
 

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Next five: Goran Dragic, Phoenix Suns; Kemba Walker, Charlotte Bobcats; Michael Carter-Williams, Philadelphia 76ers; Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls; Eric Bledsoe, Phoenix Suns.

Suns coach Jeff Hornacek has managed the minutes of his two best players -- both point guards -- so well, both Dragic and Bledsoe have played the majority of their minutes at point guard even though they share the floor much of the time. Dragic is the 2-guard in those lineups, but Hornacek has given him plenty of chances to run the show. Carter-Williams is a runaway pick for Rookie of the Year, and his emergence as a top-15 point guard statistically is especially impressive given the number of games he missed, and because his college translations weren't particularly favorable. As for Rose, my system still gives him some love from his former brilliance, but with each new injury, he slips farther and farther back into the pack.

Also notable:
16. Deron Williams, Brooklyn Nets; 17. Brandon Jennings, Detroit Pistons; 18. Jose Calderon, Dallas Mavericks; 19. Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs; 20. Ricky Rubio, Minnesota Timberwolves; 21. Jrue Holiday, New Orleans Pelicans; 22. Mario Chalmers, Miami Heat; 23. George Hill, Indiana Pacers; 24. Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks; 25. Jeremy Lin, Houston Rockets; 26. Patrick Beverley, Houston Rockets.

Parker's No. 13 ranking was the most controversial of any player's rating from the summer series, so I don't expect many warm sentiments stemming from Parker's six-place tumble in the update. The summer ranking wasn't really that bad. As mentioned in the intro, with the NBA being so point guard-heavy, the 13th-ranked point guard is still a top-25 player overall. The earlier rankings were based on a forecast, and the ATH system decided Parker had reached an age when players like him begin to lose value. In the real world, would I have taken 12 point guards before Parker? No -- I watched the Finals just like everybody else.

Parker has done little to boost his rating so far this season. In fact, he currently ranks 81st in the league in 2013-14 WARP. Much of that is by design, and Parker's numbers will probably go up as we near the postseason. He's shooting the 3-ball at a career-best clip, but he's getting to the line less frequently than he has in 10 years. Perhaps because of that more passive approach, Parker's drive-and-kick game has not been as prolific, and his assist rate has dropped to its lowest level in a decade. His minutes are also down. Can he do more? Sure. Will he? Almost certainly. But we can only measure what he has done, not what he's capable of doing.
 

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NBA's top 10 centers for 2013-14

Who would we pick if we were choosing up sides on the playground for a game today? Our midseason update of player rankings continues to address that question with the men in the middle.

It's been an interesting season for centers. Second-year player Anthony Davis -- a natural power forward -- has logged most of his time in the middle for the Pelicans and has built on his fabulous rookie season. San Antonio's Tim Duncan, whose position has always been up for debate, has logged more time in the pivot, as he's shared the court less frequently with Tiago Splitter. Other centers having good seasons have gone down with major injuries: Al Horford, Brook Lopez and Marc Gasol. And Roy Hibbert may be having the best defensive season of any player in the league as the anchor of the NBA's best first-half team, but his offensive metrics continue to undersell his real-world value.

The summer center rankings can be found here. Each player's "TrueWARP" calculation -- a blend of a player's preseason baseline forecast and his 2013-14 results -- is noted, along with their 2013-14 WARP and their league-wide rank in WARP for the season to date.

Because we're extrapolating from a half-season of real results, the methodology was a little bit different from our forecast-based summer rankings. See the explainer at the end of the article for how these rankings were derived.

1. Anthony Davis, New Orleans Pelicans
TrueWARP: 17.0 | 2013-14 WARP: 5.6 | Overall rank: 8


Davis has improved his offensive efficiency by getting to the line more often. The improvements on that end have been subtle. He's using more possessions for the Pelicans, which can sometimes mean an increase in turnovers, but his rate of miscues has fallen to a minuscule number. His improvement on defense has not been so subtle. Davis leads the NBA in shot-block rate, something he seemed preordained to do coming out of Kentucky.

2. DeMarcus Cousins, Sacramento Kings
TrueWARP: 13.4 | 2013-14 WARP: 6.0 | Overall rank: 7


Cousins has exploded on the scene this season, and if you think he is ranked too high, you didn't see him outplay Dwight Howard head-to-head in both of their meetings so far. Cousins has a league-high usage rate, and despite that hefty volume, his true shooting percentage is by far his best yet. He's also handing out more assists and grabbing more rebounds than ever before.

3. Andre Drummond, Detroit Pistons
TrueWARP: 13.3 | 2013-14 WARP: 5.3 | Overall rank: 10


The Pistons have been the league's most mercurial team, capable of beating the league's best teams and capable of getting blown out by teams in the middle class. Drummond has been a stalwart through it all. He leads the league in offensive rebounds, both in raw total and percentage. His overall rebound percentage also leads the league. By and large, Drummond is putting up the same excellent numbers he did as a rookie, only he's doing it in 12 more minutes per game.

4. Dwight Howard, Houston Rockets
TrueWARP: 12.2 | 2013-14 WARP: 5.3 | Overall rank: 11


Howard is having a better statistical season than he did during his one season with the Lakers. However, he's still well off the level of play he established in Orlando. Howard is having an excellent season -- see the No. 11 overall rank in WARP above -- but his shot-block percentage is down by a full percent and he's averaging his fewest minutes per game since his rookie season.

5. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs
TrueWARP: 10.4 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.5 | Overall rank: 31


Duncan struggled early in the season, and his overall PER is the lowest of his career. However, that worst-ever PER is still 20.7, which is a strong statement about just how great and consistent Duncan has been. His shooting percentage was well on the road to recovery in December, and the rest of his game seems to be intact.

6. Joakim Noah, Chicago Bulls
TrueWARP: 9.6 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.8 | Overall rank: 25

Noah was supposed to relinquish some of the larger offensive load he carried last season, but another major injury to Bulls star Derrick Rose snuffed out that plan. Chicago is again running much of its offense through the skilled Noah. This season, he's struggled to finish at the basket. However, his playmaking is even better, and he's taking better care of the ball. The defense is still there, as are all the intangibles you'd want in a third wheel.

7. Al Horford, Atlanta Hawks
TrueWARP: 9.0 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.6 | Overall rank: 30


Horford was having a career season before going down with a season-ending pectoral tear. Before that happened, Horford had become a high-usage big man who kept his efficiency high. He also remained an underrated post defender at the other end.

8. Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets
TrueWARP: 8.9 | 2013-14 WARP: 2.7 | Overall rank: 52

Lopez's PER has improved for three straight seasons, reaching a career-best 25.7 in 17 games in 2013-14. That's where it will stay, too, as Lopez sits out the rest of the campaign with yet another foot injury. He has become the most skilled scoring center in the league, so let's just hope his latest procedure can keep the foot injuries at bay.

9. DeAndre Jordan, Los Angeles Clippers
TrueWARP: 8.5 | 2013-14 WARP: 4.1 | Overall rank: 20


Jordan has really become a fixture in the middle of the Clippers. He has missed just two games since the start of the 2010-11 season, and has started 187 straight games at the position. This season, he's leading the league in field goal percentage for the second straight season and is also averaging a career-best 13.4 rebounds per game.

10. Marc Gasol, Memphis Grizzlies
TrueWARP: 8.1 | 2013-14 WARP: 1.4 | Overall rank: 107


Gasol's shooting numbers were down from last season at the time he was hurt, but he was occupying a larger share of the Grizzlies' offense. His shot-blocking was off as well, but nevertheless, you can bet Memphis is eager to get Gasol back.
 

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Next five: Al Jefferson, Charlotte Bobcats; Anderson Varejao, Cleveland Cavaliers; Roy Hibbert, Indiana Pacers; Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic; Derrick Favors, Utah Jazz.

Hibbert would crack the top 10 if we were ranking based strictly on this season, but there is little doubt that the metrics aren't doing him justice. He'd probably be more than satisfied to trade a spot in the WARP rankings for a No. 1 seed for the Pacers. Vucevic is putting up the same season he did in 2012-13, though he is getting a little more love from the officials. Still, he needs to become more of a physical presence in order to enter the league's elite in the middle. Favors showing up on this list is bittersweet for Jazz fans. If his partnership with Enes Kanter were working better when they shared the floor, Favors would be grouped with power forwards.

Also notable: Tyson Chandler, New York Knicks (16); Chris Bosh, Miami Heat (17); Pau Gasol, Los Angeles Lakers (20).

Chandler is dragged down by his missed time, of course, but he's also shooting his lowest percentage from the field in nine years. Bosh is clearly much better than his ranking here, but his minutes are down, which exacerbates the many sacrifices he has made to fill a role on a championship roster. Gasol's numbers have been on the upswing of late.
 

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Top 10 small forwards for 2013-14
Who would we pick if we were choosing up sides on the playground for a game today? Our midseason update of player rankings continues to address that question with small forwards.

After looking at the league's most valuable position on Wednesday, we now turn to the spot where the least amount of value is being produced in the NBA. Small forwards used to rule the roost. Think back, if you're old enough, to the NBA in the 1980s when the game was fast and the midrange jumper was still a vital part of a pro offense. Larry Bird, Dominique Wilkins, Bernard King, Alex English, Mark Aguirre, Julius Erving, Marques Johnson, Calvin Natt, Terry Cummings, just to name the obvious examples, were all arguably the best players on their respective teams.

TrueWARP by position
PositionPct.
PG30.7
PF22.4
C22.3
SG12.9
SF11.7
Now, if you consider LeBron James and Carmelo Anthony as 4s (which we are in this series), then Kevin Durant and Paul George are the only small forwards in the league right now who would be considered the best player on their team. It's quite a sea change. By and large, 3s just don't have the ball in their hands as much as they used to and instead are asked to space the floor and play defense. Just as the dinosaurs gave way to the mammals, small forwards have relinquished dominance of the NBA to point guards.

The summer small forward rankings can be found here. Each player's "TrueWARP" calculation -- a blend of a player's preseason baseline forecast and his 2013-14 results -- is noted, along with their 2013-14 WARP and their league-wide rank in WARP for the season to date.

Because we're extrapolating from a half-season of real results, the methodology was a little bit different from our forecast-based summer rankings. See the explainer at the end of the article for how these rankings were derived.

1. Kevin Durant, Oklahoma City Thunder
TrueWARP: 20.7 | 2013-14 WARP: 8.8 | Overall Rank: 1


It's not news that Durant retains his stranglehold on the top spot in the small forward rankings. My colleague Tom Haberstroh already did a great job of detailing the increase in Durant's value this season, so I won't repeat that here. This summer, Durant's projected WARP (18.3) was more than twice as high as the No. 2 player on the list, Paul Pierce (8.6). The emergence of Paul George has at least brought someone else into the periphery of the conversation, but unless LeBron James goes back to the 3, Durant will remain the NBA's top small forward for many years to come.

2. Paul George, Indiana Pacers
TrueWARP: 14.3 | 2013-14 WARP: 6.7 | Overall Rank: 6


What can you say about the incredible progress of George? He won the NBA Most Improved Player award last season, and has gotten exponentially better since. George's usage rate is up nearly 5 percent, his true shooting percentage is up from .531 to .585, and his turnover rate has fallen by 3.4 percent. It's a combination of upgrades that you just don't see, not at this volume of usage. So while his No. 7 ranking this summer now looks silly, in my defense I'll re-print the words I wrote at the time: "Speaking of George, his playoff breakout isn't represented here, and subjectively, I do see that performance as a coming-of-age rather than a fluke. So while I can't get ATH to replicate the effect, I think George will soar near the top of these rankings and will supplant [Danny] Granger in the former Indiana offensive hierarchy."

3. Nicolas Batum, Portland Trail Blazers
TrueWARP: 9.8 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.9 | Overall Rank: 21


In his sixth season, we have to give up on the idea that Batum is going to put up the kind of offensive numbers you expect from a true foundation player. Instead, he's become one of the NBA's elite role players, and the ascension of Wesley Matthews as Batum's wing partner makes that more than OK for the Trail Blazers. Batum has been used as more of a playmaker, soaking up some of that responsibility from Damian Lillard, but his spike in assists has been somewhat undermined by an uptick in turnovers.

4. Kawhi Leonard, San Antonio Spurs
TrueWARP: 7.8 | 2013-14 WARP: 2.8 | Overall Rank: 49


Leonard has fallen one place in the ratings, but that's more a product of a brutal underranking of George than anything Leonard has done. Leonard in fact has played the best ball of his career. Scoring, rebounding, passing, making plays on defense -- Leonard is doing all of these things more frequently than in his first two seasons. And best of all for Spurs fans, he still seems capable of doing so much more. None of the San Antonio's veteran stars has slipped to the point where Leonard really has to take that next step. His numbers likely will improve this season as his 30.7 percent shooting from deep regresses to his career standard.

5. Josh Smith, Detroit Pistons
TrueWARP: 7.8 | 2013-14 WARP: 1.4 | Overall Rank: 111

Smith was the No. 8 power forward in the summer rankings. That he ranks three spots higher as a 3 despite a brutal start to the season -- well, that tells you a lot about the state of the position in today's NBA. Smith's ability hasn't waned, nor, as best I can tell, has his effort. He's just not being used in a way that's conducive to efficient play. He's averaging 3.8 3-point attempts per game while shooting 24.8 percent from that distance. How can that happen?

6. Paul Pierce, Brooklyn Nets
TrueWARP: 7.1 | 2013-14 WARP: 0.8 | Overall Rank: 164


Pierce's TrueWARP is coasting along on fumes at this point, as his rating is almost entirely made up by his forecast: He ranked second at the position in the summer version of this series. At 36 years old, it's highly likely that Pierce's 2014-15 forecast will be marked by pessimism. The Nets' dysfunction makes it hard to read just how Pierce has skidded to a career-worst 13.5 PER. However, it's troubling that even as Brooklyn has picked up its pace as a team, Pierce's production continues to flounder.

7. Chandler Parsons, Houston Rockets
TrueWARP: 7.0 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.0 | Overall Rank: 40


Parsons is one of the better glue players in the NBA. He has a full range of skills, ranging from perimeter defense to playmaking to long-range shooting. He can swing between both forward positions, and is a vocal leader in the locker room. He also just keeps getting better. Parsons is one of the biggest values to emerge out of the second round in the past decade.

8. Andre Iguodala, Golden State Warriors
TrueWARP: 6.9 | 2013-14 WARP: 1.8 | Overall Rank: 89


Iguodala has proven to be a perfect fit with the Warriors. It's no surprise. The dominant trait of Golden State's perimeter players was their elite ability to shoot from the outside. That's the weak part of Iguodala's game, but he does everything else well, and has graciously accepted his status as a complementary player. Iguodala's shortcoming used to be a propensity for holding the ball, but that's not an issue with the Warriors. Now he just finishes when needed, and his true shooting percentage has soared to .640. It's no coincidence that Golden State is 19-7 with Iggy in the lineup.

9. Trevor Ariza, Washington Wizards
TrueWARP: 6.2 | 2013-14 WARP: 3.3 | Overall Rank: 38

Perhaps motivated by the sterling play of reserve Martell Webster and the drafting of fellow wing Otto Porter, Ariza has responded with arguably his finest season. His PER (16.3) is a career best, as is his true shooting percentage (.576). The strength of Washington's mediocre defense is forcing turnovers, especially live-ball miscues off steals that lead to John Wall pushing down the floor in transition. Ariza's ability to play the passing lanes is a big part of that formula.
 

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10. J.R. Smith, New York Knicks
TrueWARP: 5.2 | 2013-14 WARP: -0.1 | Overall Rank: 293

That's not a misprint -- the frequency with which the Knicks use small lineups has resulted in Smith playing more 3 this season than 2. His best position may be a 6 -- as in not in the game. Smith has shot the ball almost impossibly bad this season. We don't quote raw field goal percentage that often, but when a scorer is shooting 34.8 percent, that tells you all you need to know. It's not getting better, either, as Smith is shooting 31.3 percent in four January games. He still ekes into the top 10 because of the credit he gets for his career baseline, one that's not going to look pretty for next season if things don't turn around.

Next five: Tyreke Evans, New Orleans Pelicans; Luol Deng, Cleveland Cavaliers; Matt Barnes, Los Angeles Clippers; Shawn Marion, Dallas Mavericks; Martell Webster, Washington Wizards.

Deng is often lauded for his intangibles, and he should be. It's impossible to quantify things like locker room chemistry or a player leading by example, but we know these things matter. In what has reportedly been a soap opera-ish Cavaliers locker room this season, the addition of Deng to fill the roster spot of Andrew Bynum could pay exponential dividends on the cohesiveness of the Cleveland roster from top to bottom. His production is pretty good, too, as his 17.4 PER is the best it's been in six years.

Also notable: Rudy Gay, Sacramento Kings; Jordan Hamilton, Denver Nuggets; Arron Afflalo, Orlando Magic.

Why did the Raptors want to unload Gay? There are a lot of reasons, but consider that this season, his 0.9 WARP ranks 155th in the NBA, and he's making $17.9 million. That's not a combination of categories you want on your roster. The athletic Hamilton is once again providing the kind of big per-minute production that demands to be examined in a larger regular role. To be fair, Nuggets coach Brian Shaw has nearly doubled Hamilton's court time over last season, but he's still better than players getting a bigger chunk of playing time. For his career, Hamilton, 23, is shooting a league-average rate from deep, and is averaging 16.6 points and 8.2 rebounds per 36 minutes.
 
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