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Winners and losers of early signing period
The early signing period will officially come to an end in a matter of hours. Before the clock strikes midnight, we look at some of the biggest winners and losers of the past eight days.
Winners
Duke
When the nation’s top-ranked overall prospect and best point guard coordinate a dual announcement on national TV and flip over your hat, it’s a win. Duke might not officially have the top-ranked recruiting class in the country just yet, but there’s no denying it scored the biggest prize.
The Blue Devils went all in on Jahlil Okafor and Tyus Jones, leaving themselves without many good contingency plans in the process. However, ultimately their gamble paid off, as it gave them a pair of incoming freshmen who are not only uniquely talented, but equally good fits to the Duke culture.
Louisville
At this time last week, Rick Pitino was expected to collect three signatures during the early signing period. Instead, he got five. Quentin Snider’s recruitment came full circle with his return to the nest, while the icing on the cake was a signature from Matz Stockman. The 7-foot-2 big man from the Canarias Basketball Academy is a bit of a mystery to most people on the left side of the Atlantic, but apparently, he's loaded with potential and is set to make his American debut this weekend in Connecticut. Add those two to the expected signatures from Shaqquan Aaron, Jaylen Johnson and Chinanu Onuaku, and Pitino's Cardinals are sitting pretty right about now.
Arizona
Most expected Stanley Johnson to sign during the late signing period, but he instead opted to join ESPNU’s live signing day special and be one of four top-ranked national prospects to announce his decision and subsequently sign his letter of intent. That move was a major victory for Arizona, not only because it directly led to his commitment, but also because it saved Sean Miller and his staff an anticipated two months of work in order to hold off Kentucky and others before Johnson was expected to decide in January. Now he sits atop a class that also includes ESPN 100 products Craig Victor and Parker Jackson-Cartwright, as well as junior college guard Kadeem Allen.
Kentucky
It’s a matter of perspective. The critics will say John Calipari missed on more prospects in 2013 than ever before at Kentucky. The fans will say he’s got the top class in America, and if he can finish No. 1, it will be the fifth time in the last six years that's happened. The irony is that both those statements would be right, and therein lies the true power of the Calipari brand. There isn’t another coach in the country who could have rebounded as quickly and effectively after missing out on arguably five of his top six targets. So while this might not be exactly the class that Calipari wanted, it’s a group that brings high-level talent to Kentucky. In addition, it has the potential to upgrade Kentucky’s perimeter shooting and team continuity with perhaps fewer one-and-done freshmen.
Losers
Illinois
Just when it appeared Illinois was ready to emerge as a budding recruiting superpower, it had the rug pulled out from under it by traditional powerhouses like Louisville and Kansas. It began when Quentin Snider opted to sign with the Cardinals instead of honoring his verbal commitment to Illinois, news which reportedly caught coach John Groce and his staff off guard. Then, prized local product Cliff Alexander opted for Bill Self’s Kansas squad, but not before adding insult to injury by first reaching for the Illinois hat. While Groce didn’t necessarily make the big splash some expected, the reality is that these are two temporary setbacks, neither of which are likely to affect the steady growth of his profile on the national recruiting circuit.
Wake Forest
After three highly scrutinized seasons on the Wake Forest bench, Jeff Bzdelik is badly in need of some positive headlines. ESPN 100 center Isaac Haas looked poised to provide that as the centerpiece of a solid three-man class this week. But things didn’t work out according to plan after Haas had a last-minute change of heart and ultimately ended up signing with Purdue. Now Bzdelik and his staff have to balance the need for immediate wins this season, while also allocating enough time to the recruiting front in hopes of finding a replacement big man.
Michigan State
With Adreian Payne and Keith Appling both set to graduate and Gary Harris likely to mull a jump to the NBA, coach Tom Izzo approached this recruiting class knowing that it would be an important one. He targeted a variety of five-star prospects like Cliff Alexander, Tyus Jones, Devin Booker and others but has come out empty-handed among the nation’s elite so far. A commitment from ESPN 100 point guard Lourawls Nairn was a saving grace, but now the Spartans need to find some similar 11th hour value along the front line.
This isn't showing for me at work. I'll post it when I get home.
Is Chris Paul the best PG ever?
After converting an "and one" late in the fourth quarter against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Wednesday night, Chris Paul surpassed Magic Johnson on a dusty page in the record books. With 20 points and 11 assists, Paul registered a double-double for the 12th straight game to start the season, breaking Johnson's record, set in 1990-91.
Get used to hearing Paul displacing Johnson's standing in history, because Paul already is on pace to be the best point guard to ever step foot in the league. At least he is statistically. The sad thing is that almost no one even realizes this is happening.
I know what you're thinking: "Better than Magic? Paul has never even been to the NBA Finals. He's never even won an MVP. How dare you stomp on Magic's legacy!"
Stomp on this: Paul has the highest player efficiency rating of any point guard in history (25.6) and considerably higher than Johnson (23.5). And if you look at win shares, which estimates the number of wins a player contributes to the bottom line, it tells the same story. Just 12 games into his ninth season, Paul already has more career win shares than Johnson had through nine seasons.
Here are Paul's per-game and advanced metrics next to Johnson's so far:
CP3 vs Magic: Through nine seasons
PLAYER MPG PTS AST TOV FG%/3FG%/FT% WS/48 WS PER
Paul 36.5 18.6 9.9 2.4 .472/.353/.860 .244 105.4 25.6
Johnson 36.8 19.1 11.0 3.9 .533/.192/.823 .213 104.2 23.5
So why don't people think of Paul in this light?
Behold, the power of Hall of Fame supporting casts.
As far as NBA teammates go, Johnson came into the league with a basketball in one hand and a silver spoon in the other. As luck would have it, the Lakers drafted Johnson No. 1 overall, and immediately he joined a star-studded Lakers team that featured two future Hall of Famers in their prime -- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Jamaal Wilkes. At 32, Abdul-Jabbar still was dominating the league and won the MVP award in Johnson's rookie season by averaging 24.8 points, 10.8 rebounds, 4.5 assists, 3.4 blocks per game on 60.4 percent shooting. Sure enough, with Abdul-Jabbar, Wilkes, future two-time All-Star Norm Nixon and defensive stud Michael Cooper in tow, Johnson won a championship in his very first season in the league, due in no small part to his own heroics in the clinching Game 6.
You know who Paul had on his team his rookie season? David West and Speedy Claxton. That's not a knock on West or Claxton, but Claxton isn't a future Hall of Famer and West isn't one of the top handful of players to ever pick up a basketball. But these were the cards that Paul was dealt. Unlike Johnson (and Tim Duncan more recently), Paul wasn't fortunate enough to land on a team with a Hall of Famer in his prime.
This is a trend that holds throughout Paul's career. The guy has had pretty crummy teammates by any reasonable standard. Paul's lack of support cuts two ways in the legacy-building department. Not only did his teams rarely contend for a title, but the weak rosters hurt his MVP credentials, because voters tend to fixate over team win totals.
No doubt Johnson was elite and deserves the "greatest point guard ever" moniker, but let's not overlook that he was also gifted with great teammates. To illustrate this phenomenon, I compared the 50 best teammates of Johnson's first eight seasons next to Paul's in his first eight seasons, using win shares, which can be found on Basketball-Reference.com.
The results might shock some, but it shouldn't if we consider the enormous talent gap on the Lakers against the Hornets/Clippers. To wit, Johnson enjoyed six seasons of Abdul-Jabbar that were better than anything Paul has been gifted in the NBA. Furthermore, 31 of Johnson's teammates put up at least a five-win season on their own merits; just about half as many for Paul, with 17.
You can see the jarring difference in the chart below. Johnson played with Hall of Famers like Abdul-Jabbar, Wilkes and James Worthy. Paul has played with West, Blake Griffin and Tyson Chandler. In all, Johnson's 50 best teammates contributed 314.3 wins in eight seasons. Paul's best slapped together nearly 100 fewer, just 219.8 wins.
If you prefer more traditional standards, Johnson shared the court with an All-Star 13 times in the first eight seasons of his career. Paul? Try four. That means once every couple of seasons on average, Paul would get lucky enough to play with an All-Star. Johnson enjoyed at least one All-Star on his team every season he played in the league until he left the game in 1991. And often times, he had two of them.
To be clear, this study is not meant to diminish Johnson's career, but rather to provide some important context to Paul's. As irrational as it is, it has become standard practice these days to reduce a player's résumé into a count of championship rings and MVP awards, which are heavily influenced by teammate quality over player quality. It remains a mystery how Kobe Bryant won the 2007-08 MVP over Paul, who bested Bryant in just about every meaningful category except for points per game.
So what else does Paul need to do to top Johnson? For one, he needs to keep up this level of play for a few more seasons. He currently ranks in the top five in PER this season, and ranks second in his career among active players behind LeBron James.
But the truth is that no matter how unfair it might seem, the court of public opinion will ultimately judge Paul by titles and MVP awards. And in that department, Johnson owns three MVPs and five rings, so Paul has some work to do there. With J.J. Redikk and Jared Dudley added to the fold, this Clippers roster probably contains the most talent he's ever played with (though the bench goes maybe three players deep). If the Clippers put together a 60-win season, Paul might indeed win his first MVP award, which will help boost his all-time standing.
But statistically, he's closed the gap on Johnson, regardless of the record Paul broke Wednesday. Now Paul just needs the hardware. The question is whether his roster is finally good enough to get it.
USSInsiders
Banned
Anybody with insider able to post any football betting info from ESPN insider?
http://www.viewdocsonline.com/document/2rx6b8
http://www.viewdocsonline.com/document/y4cje9
USSInsiders
Banned
thanks b
Picks: Baylor will stay undefeated
Each week during the 2013 college football season I will offer up my picks and scores for the biggest games in addition to a handful of other key matchups.
Week 12 is in the books and my picks went 7-2. Overall, my record now stands at 83-25 this year.
After a week that saw USC upset Stanford (by the same score I picked) and Auburn pull off a miracle win over Georgia, this week's slate features five games involving ranked versus ranked teams, and all have major implications on both conference titles and BCS bids.
No. 4 Baylor Bears at No. 10 Oklahoma State Cowboys
Saturday at 8 p.m. ET, ABC
The Cowboys have owned this series, winning 14 of the past 16 games, but last year the Bears got the win 41-34. Oklahoma State, however, has won its past seven home games over Baylor by an average of 26 points per game and now it gets the added edge of having "College GameDay" on hand for only the fourth time and the first time when not facing rival Oklahoma.
Both teams are red hot, as the Cowboys have won five straight and are improving each week on both sides of the ball. Last week, they went into Austin and silenced a Texas team that had won six straight games. The star was quarterback Clint Chelf, who quieted his doubters by completing 73 percent of his passes and also added 95 rushing yards. The defense continues to rank among the nation's best at forcing turnovers, sporting a plus-13 turnover margin.
Baylor, despite being in a flat spot last week coming off a big win over Oklahoma, rallied from an early 20-7 deficit to outscore Texas Tech 56-14 the rest of the way. What made the game even more impressive was that the Bears did it without leading receiver Tevin Reese, who is out for the year, while their top two backs, Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin, also missed the game. It didn't matter, as Shock Linwood and Devin Chafin combined to run for 287 yards. Quarterback Bryce Petty is averaging an astounding 20 yards per completion with a 24-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and the defense is allowing only 17 points per game.
With late November comes added pressure to the nation's undefeated teams, and Baylor is in uncharted waters here being so highly ranked this late in the season. The last time the Bears went on the road and played a legitimate foe, they had to rally to beat Kansas State 35-25. The Cowboys present an even bigger challenge here, but it is tough to go against a team that has won 13 straight games by an average score of 57-22. This one goes down to the wire, but the Bears come out on top and move to 10-0.
Pick: Baylor 41, Oklahoma State 38
No. 12 Texas A&M Aggies at No. 22 LSU Tigers
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET
LSU has won each of the past two meetings, including the Cotton Bowl following the 2010 season, and last year rallied for a 24-19 win after trailing 12-0 early.
The Aggies, who are averaging 578 yards per game, have been winning with offense all year. They are led by Johnny Manziel, who has shown great improvement as a passer by completing 73 percent of his passes with a 31-11 TD-INT ratio. However, he's running less this year, having gained "only" 611 yards (he rushed for 1,410 yards last year). Their defense, however, is allowing 473 yards per game and 36 points per game on the road.
The Tigers make a strong case as the best three-loss team in the country as they are plus-107 yards per game. Their inexperienced defense has fared much better at home this year, allowing just 284 yards and 15 points per game. Quarterback Zach Mettenberger has a 20-7 TD-INT ratio and throws to the best one-two punch in the country at wide receiver in Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry, who have combined for 2,023 receiving yards.
Expect a lot of points in this one, but I'll take the Tigers defense, which ranks No. 24 in total D, to be able to come up with just one more stop than the Aggies defense (ranked No. 105).
Pick: LSU 45, Texas A&M 38
No. 17 Arizona State Sun Devils at No. 14 UCLA Bruins
Saturday at 7 p.m. ET
There are some interesting side notes to this game, as UCLA offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone was the Arizona State offensive coordinator for two years and Bruins quarterback Brett Hundley grew up near Tempe, Ariz. UCLA has won eight of the past 12 meetings, including last year's thrilling 45-43 last-second win.
While Arizona State is still a game up in the Pac-12 South standings, UCLA controls its destiny if it wins out. The Bruins have won three straight as the star of the past two weeks has been linebacker-turned-running back Myles Jack, who became the first Bruin to score four rushing touchdowns in a game since Maurice Jones-Drew posted five TDs in 2005.
The Sun Devils have won five straight games. While early in the season their powerful offense carried the load, the defense has stepped up its game as of late, giving up just 58 rush yards per game after allowing 183 yards per game in the first five contests. Running back Marion Grice is No. 2 in the country in scoring with 20 touchdowns while QB Taylor Kelly has 24 touchdown passes.
While both offenses do have the advantage over the opposing defenses, the Sun Devils defense is better capable of making a critical stop, as on the road it is allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete just 48.5 percent of their passes. The Sun Devils will punch their ticket to the Pac-12 championship game.
Pick: Arizona State 33, UCLA 31
No. 8 Missouri Tigers at No. 24 Ole Miss Rebels
Saturday at 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Tigers have won five of the six previous meetings, but this is the first time these two teams square off as SEC rivals. Both come in with plenty to play for as Missouri has to win out to reach the SEC championship game, while Ole Miss comes in with four straight wins and is positioning for a major bowl bid.
The big news for Missouri in this one is the return of quarterback James Franklin, who has missed the past four starts with a sprained throwing shoulder. While Maty Mauk performed well in his place, Franklin gives the offense a different dynamic with his running ability, and he has two 6-foot-5 wide receivers to throw to in L'Damian Washington and Dorial Green-Beckham, who have combined for 18 touchdown receptions this year. All-American candidate defensive end Michael Sam leads an aggressive defense that has generated 31 sacks in the past seven games and has forced a turnover in a Football Bowl Subdivision-best 40 straight games.
Ole Miss has rebounded from its October slump to win four straight. Last week, the Rebels piled up a school-record 751 yards in their blowout win over Troy and are averaging 562 yards per game and 40 points per game at home this year. Quarterback Bo Wallace has cleaned up his turnover issues from last year and has just five interceptions this year.
Overall, these two teams are very similar as Missouri is outgaining foes by 106 yards per game this year while Ole Miss is outgaining its opponents by 124 yards per game. The difference is that Missouri has been a proven commodity on the road this year, winning its four away contests by an average of 21 points per game and was just a play or two away (against South Carolina) from being a perfect 10-0. The Tigers take one more step to Atlanta here.
Pick: Missouri 31, Ole Miss 26
Quick hitters
No. 19 Wisconsin Badgers at No. 25 Minnesota Golden Gophers
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Badgers have won nine in a row in this series by 17 points per game. The Gophers are one of the biggest surprises this year at 8-2 and winners of four straight games. However, this week is their toughest test of the season thus far. The Badgers are averaging 308 rushing yards per game, which is not good news for a Minnesota rush defense that has allowed 202 yards per game in its past three contests. The Badgers are outgaining their opponents by an incredible 218 yards per game (Alabama is only plus-173 YPG); look for them to impose their will for the 10th consecutive year.
Pick: Wisconsin 34, Minnesota 13
No. 20 Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats
Saturday at noon ET
Bob Stoops is 8-2 against Bill Snyder, but one of those losses came last year when the Wildcats went into Norman and upset the Sooners 24-19. This year, the teams are battling for Big 12 bowl positioning, as the Wildcats have won four straight games. They are getting great production from both of their quarterbacks in Jake Waters (8-2 TD-INT ratio the past eight games) and Daniel Sams (784 rush yards). On the opposite side, Trevor Knight will be making his first career road start in Manhattan, where the Wildcats have won 84 percent of their home games since 1992 with Snyder on the sideline. Look for the Wildcats to make it two straight over the Sooners.
Pick: Kansas State 27, Oklahoma 23
No. 5 Oregon Ducks at Arizona Wildcats
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
The Ducks have won the past five games in this series and have averaged 51 points and 502 yards per game in those meetings. Just one week after suffering an upset loss to Stanford, the Ducks are right back in the driver's seat in the Pac-12 North thanks to the Trojans' win over the Cardinal. Arizona, on the other hand, is reeling after getting upset by Washington State 24-17 and now could be staring at four straight losses to end the season. Oregon takes advantage of its new life and, even with Marcus Mariota less than 100 percent, wins comfortably.
Pick: Oregon 45, Arizona 24
Saturday at 7:45 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Tigers have won five of the six previous meetings, but this is the first time these two teams square off as SEC rivals. Both come in with plenty to play for as Missouri has to win out to reach the SEC championship game, while Ole Miss comes in with four straight wins and is positioning for a major bowl bid.
The big news for Missouri in this one is the return of quarterback James Franklin, who has missed the past four starts with a sprained throwing shoulder. While Maty Mauk performed well in his place, Franklin gives the offense a different dynamic with his running ability, and he has two 6-foot-5 wide receivers to throw to in L'Damian Washington and Dorial Green-Beckham, who have combined for 18 touchdown receptions this year. All-American candidate defensive end Michael Sam leads an aggressive defense that has generated 31 sacks in the past seven games and has forced a turnover in a Football Bowl Subdivision-best 40 straight games.
Ole Miss has rebounded from its October slump to win four straight. Last week, the Rebels piled up a school-record 751 yards in their blowout win over Troy and are averaging 562 yards per game and 40 points per game at home this year. Quarterback Bo Wallace has cleaned up his turnover issues from last year and has just five interceptions this year.
Overall, these two teams are very similar as Missouri is outgaining foes by 106 yards per game this year while Ole Miss is outgaining its opponents by 124 yards per game. The difference is that Missouri has been a proven commodity on the road this year, winning its four away contests by an average of 21 points per game and was just a play or two away (against South Carolina) from being a perfect 10-0. The Tigers take one more step to Atlanta here.
Pick: Missouri 31, Ole Miss 26
Quick hitters
No. 19 Wisconsin Badgers at No. 25 Minnesota Golden Gophers
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
The Badgers have won nine in a row in this series by 17 points per game. The Gophers are one of the biggest surprises this year at 8-2 and winners of four straight games. However, this week is their toughest test of the season thus far. The Badgers are averaging 308 rushing yards per game, which is not good news for a Minnesota rush defense that has allowed 202 yards per game in its past three contests. The Badgers are outgaining their opponents by an incredible 218 yards per game (Alabama is only plus-173 YPG); look for them to impose their will for the 10th consecutive year.
Pick: Wisconsin 34, Minnesota 13
No. 20 Oklahoma Sooners at Kansas State Wildcats
Saturday at noon ET
Bob Stoops is 8-2 against Bill Snyder, but one of those losses came last year when the Wildcats went into Norman and upset the Sooners 24-19. This year, the teams are battling for Big 12 bowl positioning, as the Wildcats have won four straight games. They are getting great production from both of their quarterbacks in Jake Waters (8-2 TD-INT ratio the past eight games) and Daniel Sams (784 rush yards). On the opposite side, Trevor Knight will be making his first career road start in Manhattan, where the Wildcats have won 84 percent of their home games since 1992 with Snyder on the sideline. Look for the Wildcats to make it two straight over the Sooners.
Pick: Kansas State 27, Oklahoma 23
No. 5 Oregon Ducks at Arizona Wildcats
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
The Ducks have won the past five games in this series and have averaged 51 points and 502 yards per game in those meetings. Just one week after suffering an upset loss to Stanford, the Ducks are right back in the driver's seat in the Pac-12 North thanks to the Trojans' win over the Cardinal. Arizona, on the other hand, is reeling after getting upset by Washington State 24-17 and now could be staring at four straight losses to end the season. Oregon takes advantage of its new life and, even with Marcus Mariota less than 100 percent, wins comfortably.
Pick: Oregon 45, Arizona 24
Indiana Hoosiers at No. 3 Ohio State Buckeyes
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
The Buckeyes have won 16 straight in the series, but last year had to escape with a 52-49 win. Despite a 25-point win over Illinois last week, there remains much doubt nationally with an Ohio State team that has now won 22 straight games. However, one thing that continues to impress is the Buckeyes offense, which is averaging 49 points per game and has scored an FBS-best 192 points in the first quarter this season. Now it takes on an Indiana defense that is allowing 53 points per game on the road. Look for another scoring barrage this week and win No. 23 in a row.
Pick: Ohio State 63, Indiana 27
No. 13 Michigan State Spartans at Northwestern Wildcats
Saturday at noon ET, ESPN
The visitor has won nine of the past 12 meetings, including last year when Northwestern pulled the 23-20 upset. This year, the two teams come in on opposite ends of the spectrum, as the Spartans have won six straight games, all by double digits, while the Wildcats have lost six straight, including two in overtime and one on a Hail Mary touchdown pass. While on paper a 9-1 team should win comfortably over a 5-6 squad, I will call for Northwestern to keep it close, but in the end come up just short yet again.
Pick: Michigan State 20, Northwestern 14
Saturday at 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC
The Buckeyes have won 16 straight in the series, but last year had to escape with a 52-49 win. Despite a 25-point win over Illinois last week, there remains much doubt nationally with an Ohio State team that has now won 22 straight games. However, one thing that continues to impress is the Buckeyes offense, which is averaging 49 points per game and has scored an FBS-best 192 points in the first quarter this season. Now it takes on an Indiana defense that is allowing 53 points per game on the road. Look for another scoring barrage this week and win No. 23 in a row.
Pick: Ohio State 63, Indiana 27
No. 13 Michigan State Spartans at Northwestern Wildcats
Saturday at noon ET, ESPN
The visitor has won nine of the past 12 meetings, including last year when Northwestern pulled the 23-20 upset. This year, the two teams come in on opposite ends of the spectrum, as the Spartans have won six straight games, all by double digits, while the Wildcats have lost six straight, including two in overtime and one on a Hail Mary touchdown pass. While on paper a 9-1 team should win comfortably over a 5-6 squad, I will call for Northwestern to keep it close, but in the end come up just short yet again.
Pick: Michigan State 20, Northwestern 14
I'll try to get these, but it might have to wait until Saturday. I'm visiting my folks. And I don't know how to post it from a tablet.