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Frump said:
Kiley McDaniel's 2020 MLB mock draft 2.0
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2020 MLB mock draft 2.0: Kiley McDaniel offers percentages
With the June 10 shortened five-round 2020 MLB draft fast approaching, team preferences and talent tiers are coming into focus, so it made sense to pump some sources and put out another mock draft before we enter the final phase of preparations. I have a solid feel for where the top half-dozen or so picks stand right now, and rather than giving a binary "here's the pick" sort of projection or just naming a bunch of options, the left side of my brain came up with the idea more precise in what I'm hearing from sources (hopefully with some accuracy as well).

For each of the first seven picks, I provide the percentages of who I think could be taken. Other than for the first pick (I'm hearing the Tigers are down to two options), the percentages don't add up to 100 because I'm listing only those who I think have at least a 20% likelihood of being taken. I found that by the eighth pick, preferences become less clear, and there are so many possible scenarios that this approach loses its value.

Watch the 2020 MLB draft on ESPN & the ESPN App

Wed., June 10: Round 1 starting at 7 p.m. ET (ESPN)

Thu., June 11: Rounds 2-5 starting at 5 p.m. ET (ESPN2)

Also see:

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First round
1. Detroit Tigers: Spencer Torkelson, 1B, Arizona State
Torkelson: 85%, Asa Lacy: 15%

This one still isn't locked in, but I'm told it's basically down to signability signals, as Torkelson's camp (i.e. Scott Boras) isn't expected to give a hard number. Although Detroit might publicly say that it is considering more than two players, I'm told it's down to Lacy, who fits Detroit's preferences to a T, and Torkelson, the consensus top player in the draft. In the event that the Tigers take Lacy, they would likely target an over-slot prep at No. 38 as a complement to spend the savings.

2. Baltimore Orioles: Austin Martin, 2B, Vanderbilt
Martin: 50%, Nick Gonzales: 40%

In the event that Lacy goes first, it isn't clear if Torkelson would go second, third or fourth. It's hard to believe he would slide to fourth, but it also isn't clear what Baltimore and Miami think of him, especially in light of the big bonus ask that would be a contributing factor to a potential slide. Obviously, a team's ability to meet such a price goes down dramatically as each pick is made (the bonus slot values also fall), so it becomes a game of chicken.

That's obviously an edge case, and this pick is expected once again to come down to a Boras client who is the consensus best talent at the pick (Martin) and a player who fits this team's preferences and will be much cheaper without being seen as a big drop-off in talent (New Mexico State 2B Nick Gonzales). I'll always bet on the most talented player being taken, but Orioles GM Mike Elias was running the Houston Astros' draft when they cut at 1-1 to take Carlos Correa, which helped them net an over-slot Lance McCullers Jr. at a later pick.

Baltimore is also one of a handful of teams lining up with likely savings from its first pick to pluck Oklahoma prep lefty Dax Fulton, who was projected as a mid-first-rounder until he had Tommy John surgery this summer, with its second pick.

3. Miami Marlins: Asa Lacy, LHP, Texas A&M
Lacy: 55%, Martin: 30%

The most likely outcome here is that the top three go in the order I've outlined. The second-most likely outcome is Torkelson-Gonzales-Martin, which has something like a one-in-three chance of happening. The other potential outcomes have likelihoods of less than 10%. The rumor that the Marlins will cut here and take Heston Kjerstad (a ringer for their top pick last year, JJ Bleday) also is unlikely to be true, but it's another intriguing option on the menu. The odds are high that Miami ranks the top three in the order we listed and takes the best one left here.

4. Kansas City Royals: Zac Veen, RF, Spruce Creek High School (Florida), Florida commit
Veen: 50%, Gonzales: 40%

The Royals are in on Gonzales, but my latest intel is that they slightly prefer Veen as their best option after the consensus top three. Like most picks, this one isn't fully decided, and teams are bearing down on key decisions in meetings this week. If any of the top three talents gets through, that would be the pick here; otherwise, it's Veen and then Gonzales for now.

5. Toronto Blue Jays: Max Meyer, RHP, Minnesota
Meyer: 40%, Veen: 30%, Gonzales: 25%

I'm hearing that Toronto also has Veen a hair ahead of a few others as its fourth-best option on the board, possibly even ahead of Martin, but that isn't settled. Of those still available here, Meyer has the edge over Gonzales, and Emerson Hancock lags behind until his medicals come out, likely this week. That info would help allay fears about Hancock missing the end of 2019, skipping the summer and then coming out of the gate slowly in 2020 (more on him below).

6. Seattle Mariners: Nick Gonzales, 2B, New Mexico State
Gonzales: 40%, Meyer: 30%, Hancock: 20%

Seattle is heavily leaning college here and, beyond the top three, is looking at Gonzales, Meyer and Hancock, likely in that order.

7. Pittsburgh Pirates: Heston Kjerstad, RF, Arkansas
Kjerstad: 40%, Bailey: 20%, Hancock: 20%

Pittsburgh is looking mostly at college hitters, leaving Kjerstad and Bailey as the most commonly mentioned names here, but Hancock could get into the mix.

8. San Diego Padres: Robert Hassell, CF, Independence High School (Tennessee), Vanderbilt commit

Hassell has some very strong believers in the industry (including me, as you'll see when my updated rankings come out in a week or so). San Diego is the first spot where he's in play, and he's really in play here, so it would likely be a bit below slot, helping set up a potential overpay at the Padres' next pick. All of the top prep outfielders (Veen, Hassell, Austin Hendrick) have been mentioned here, in that order.

9. Colorado Rockies: Emerson Hancock, RHP, Georgia

Hancock is the player sliding most in this projection, and there's a reason. His TrackMan data is just OK, he's unusual in that he's a righty with a changeup as his out pitch, his 2020 performance was just OK, and most top scouts didn't see him in 2019 because he didn't pitch over the summer or at the SEC tournament. A clean medical could help him rise or could make Colorado feel better about taking him here. Top-notch scouting departments that make sure to bear down on underclassmen to build history have seen Hancock at his peak: He sits mid-90s and mixes a 70-grade changeup and solid average breakers with premium feel.

Luckily for the Rockies, they draft only pitchers who throw sinkers (due to Coors Field), and part of the reason Hancock's TrackMan data is seen as just OK is his sinker's inherent lack of swing-and-miss qualities. For this reason, two collegiate sinkerballers are also tied to Colorado's next pick: South Carolina RHP Carmen Mlodzinski and Miami RHP Chris McMahon. Colorado is also believed to love Hassell and would take him if San Diego passes. Finally, the Rockies are believed to have California prep catcher Tyler Soderstrom in their mix.

10. Los Angeles Angels: Reid Detmers, LHP, Louisville

Angels owner Arte Moreno (estimated net worth $3.3 billion) made an unpopular, selfish and inexplicable move to furlough his entire domestic scouting staff, including all area scouts, on June 1, just nine days before the draft will start. It's an incredibly tough situation for the remaining employees to navigate, and GM Billy Eppler is in the last year of his deal. The industry expectation is for the team to focus on quick-moving college types. Detmers is one of roughly six players in the draft who could contribute to a big league team later this year (joining Torkelson, Martin, Lacy, Meyer, possibly Hancock and possibly Garrett Crochet), and he'd go in the next few picks if he doesn't go here. Cade Cavalli and Meyer have also been tied to this pick.

11. Chicago White Sox: Patrick Bailey, C, North Carolina State

Chicago is looking for college bats, and Bailey fits this pick very well in terms of value and the White Sox's system. It's a common connection in the industry.

12. Cincinnati Reds: Austin Hendrick, RF, West Allegheny High School (Pennsylvania), Mississippi State commit

Cincinnati is believed to be targeting one of the top prep outfielders and gets one of them in this scenario.

13. San Francisco Giants: Tyler Soderstrom, C, Turlock High School (California), UCLA commit

The Giants sound open-minded when it comes to demographics. There's buzz that Soderstrom will go in the middle of the round, and this is one of the rumored landing spots, along with Colorado at No. 9.

14. Texas Rangers: Garrett Crochet, LHP, Tennessee

Crochet's personality draws different takes from clubs, but they all seem to agree that he has a chance to be a Josh Hader type in a relief role, though he has some chance to be a starter as well. Texas is not likely to pluck a prep arm, given its recent track record, so a possible quick mover makes sense. Also keep an eye on Garrett Mitchell or a surprise in Justin Foscue (more on that later).

15. Philadelphia Phillies: Nick Bitsko, RHP, Central Bucks East High School (Pennsylvania), Virginia commit

Bitsko is the hottest name in the industry. He posted a video on Instagram with some Rapsodo data over footage of a bullpen session, but a lot of prep pitchers have done that. What made this notable was that Bitsko reclassified to the 2020 draft class in January and has thrown only one bullpen for scouts since then (his spring season never started). The three innings he threw over two events last summer provide the only track record most teams have with Bitsko. Showing that he's at full strength and has improved since the summer and giving more complete data such as this to clubs would serve to make him an option at most picks in the first round, rather than just an over-slot option after pick 30.

San Diego and Philly are both known to be interested, and Bitsko's style of pitching appeals to a number of teams, including Baltimore and Arizona, which both pick in the compensatory round, so they have plenty of ammo to meet Bitsko's price. There's an argument that Bitsko has the highest ceiling in the draft besides the consensus top three, but there are teams that simply don't have enough information to be comfortable drafting him.

16. Chicago Cubs: Garrett Mitchell, CF, UCLA

Mitchell is a consensus top-10 prospect by draft models, thanks to some very attractive components -- history of high contact rate, 70 speed, 55 raw power -- but he is much lower for many scouts due to some other qualities -- lack of improvement in college, lack of in-game power, choosing not to play in the fall his whole college career, generally playing below his tools since his high school underclass days. His Type 1 diabetes is another complicating factor that doesn't really have a precedent for everyday position players -- Sam Fuld is the most prominent example -- so Mitchell is not in play for some clubs. That full list hasn't come into focus yet, but the assumption is that someone will take him in the middle of the first round. The Cubs have a new voice at the helm of their draft in Dan Kantrovitz (formerly with Oakland and St. Louis), and clubs have noticed them showing more interest in upside types than they did at their top pick in recent years.

17. Boston Red Sox: Mick Abel, RHP, Jesuit High School (Oregon), Oregon State commit

I've heard Boston is kicking the tires on a number of demographics, but I believe the Red Sox are leaning more to upside than quick-moving types. Abel is arguably the top prep pitcher in the draft, and new head of baseball ops Chaim Bloom came from Tampa Bay, where the Rays didn't shy away from the high-risk group that scares off many teams in the first round.

18. Arizona Diamondbacks: Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF, Harvard Westlake High School (California), Vanderbilt commit

The D-backs are another team that seems to have zeroed in on a specific type (contact-first, up-the-middle prep bats) and has gotten solid recent results with that approach (Alek Thomas, Corbin Carroll). Crow-Armstrong fits it to a T. It isn't a coincidence that the other best fit to that type in the first round, Robert Hassell, is Arizona's other heavily rumored target.

For their next pick, the D-backs are rumored to be targeting some upside prep arms, and one in particular, Bitsko, fits their preference (high slot, high spin, fastball/curveball) very well. Bitsko is already off the board in this mock, but he's a real option at this pick or with Arizona's second pick, if he makes it that far. Clayton Beeter is rising and fits Arizona's type well, but he'll likely go between Arizona's two picks.
 
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19. New York Mets: Justin Foscue, 2B, Mississippi State

Foscue is a riser over the past few weeks, as word has trickled out that his type -- high probability, 50 or better hit and game power tool grades, multipositional fit, solid plate discipline -- is ranked higher on many models than people expected. Foscue is not that different from a consensus top-10 type in Kjerstad and has more defensive value, so I'm told that it wouldn't be a surprise if he sneaks into the top half of the round, even without a plus tool on the card. I've heard only college players tied to the Mets so far.

20. Milwaukee Brewers: Dillon Dingler, C, Ohio State

Dingler was a late-rising prospect this spring, and he has a wide range from the middle to the back of the round. Mitchell and Crochet also fit Milwaukee's type here.

21. St. Louis Cardinals: Cade Cavalli, RHP, Oklahoma

The Cards are still casting a wide net here, but their preferred type of pitcher is athletic with arm speed, and Cavalli has the most of both of those traits among the college arms still on the board. Foscue and Soderstrom both have been tied to St. Louis but aren't available in this scenario.

22. Washington Nationals: Cole Wilcox, RHP, Georgia

There is a group of inconsistent college pitchers whom every team is having trouble ranking, and Wilcox appears to be at the top of the bunch. That half-dozen includes Wilcox, Cavalli, Miami righties Slade Cecconi and Chris McMahon, Florida State righty CJ Van Eyk and South Carolina righty Carmen Mlodzinski. They all show the elements of a solid mid-first-round pick, but injuries or inconsistency has pushed them into the range of No. 20 to No. 40 overall. Teams are telling me that Wilcox will go around here, and he fits the Nats' preference of a power arm.

23. Cleveland Indians: Jared Kelley, RHP, Refugio High School (Texas), Texas commit

Kelley has been sliding in recent weeks, as it's becoming clear that teams don't love prep righties, particularly those with "now" stuff and "now" bodies (i.e. little projection, higher stress put on a teenage arm), and don't like righties who rely on changeups over breaking balls (which applies to Hancock as well). Kelley is seen as signable, so he'll likely go on the first day, and he still sits 95-98 with a plus changeup, so there isn't a ton that needs to be changed other than tightening the breaker. Cleveland's model seems to prefer guys with longer track records, so Kelley and (at the team's next pick) J.T. Ginn, with long track records of elite stuff and performance, fit the Indians well.

24. Tampa Bay Rays: Slade Cecconi, RHP, Miami

Clubs think the Rays will pair this selection with their next pick at 37 to take a college player here and try to float a first-round prep talent for an over-slot bonus to their compensatory pick. Ed Howard, Jordan Walker and Justin Lange all fit that type for the second pick, and there's a mess of college pitching that fits that strategy at this choice. Baylor shortstop Nick Loftin also fits the Rays' usual type of middle infielder more than Mississippi State shortstop Jordan Westburg does.

25. Atlanta Braves: Bryce Jarvis, RHP, Duke

The Braves are tied to a handful of players who likely won't get this far, and Jarvis matches well what the industry sees as the new regime's type for high picks: polished, college, under slot, stands out in both scouting and data/performance areas. Look for the Braves to follow last year's blueprint and go college early, then high school later.

26. Oakland Athletics: Nick Loftin, SS, Baylor

Loftin is among a couple of college types tied to the A's. His carrying tools are contact and defense, making him the opposite sort of player from last year's first-round pick, shortstop Logan Davidson.

27. Minnesota Twins: Clayton Beeter, RHP, Texas Tech

Beeter has a short track record of premium stuff and high walk rates, and he has had Tommy John surgery, but teams think his strike-throwing will improve, and his stuff, as measured by data or eyeballs, might be the best in the draft.

28. New York Yankees: Bobby Miller, RHP, Louisville

A handful of college names have been connected to the Yankees -- Miller, Cavalli, Cecconi, Beeter, Dingler -- but only one of them gets to this pick.

29. Los Angeles Dodgers: Jordan Westburg, SS, Mississippi State

I had the Dodgers taking Foscue last time, but now it looks like he won't last to No. 29. His double-play partner, Westburg, has more upside and is bigger and more athletic but also has more trouble with contact. The Dodgers have some of the best hitter development in the game, so they can afford to gamble on the upside here.

Competitive Balance Round A
30. Baltimore Orioles: Dax Fulton, LHP, Mustang High School (Oklahoma), Oklahoma commit

31. Pittsburgh Pirates: Austin Wells, C, Arizona

32. Kansas City Royals: Jordan Walker, 3B, Decatur High School (Georgia), Duke commit

33. Arizona Diamondbacks: Jared Shuster, LHP, Wake Forest

34. San Diego Padres: Justin Lange, RHP, Llano High School (Texas), Dallas Baptist commit

35. Colorado Rockies: Carmen Mlodzinski, RHP, South Carolina

36. Cleveland Indians: J.T. Ginn, RHP, Mississippi State

37. Tampa Bay Rays: Ed Howard, SS, Mount Carmel High School (Illinois), Oklahoma commit
 
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Dr. Narcisse said:
@Skooby
Ranking the NFL's top 10 QBs for 2020: Who follows Patrick Mahomes?
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1. Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
Age: 24 | Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 4

Nearly 30 voters were polled, and all but one picked Mahomes first overall.

"Everything else is a grab bag," one AFC exec said. "He's the face of the league." That was evident by the Chiefs' signing Mahomes to a record 10-year, $450 million extension Monday, with a total package that can push the 12-year pact (he had two years left on his rookie deal) up to $503 million.

It's easy to detail Mahomes' dominance statistically and anecdotally:

  • second player to win a Super Bowl and MVP in his first three seasons
  • QB ratings of 113.8 and 105.3 as a two-year starter
  • 304 yards and 2.53 passing touchdowns per game
  • arm talent to complete passes from all bodily contortions
  • leads NFL with 22 touchdown passes of 20-plus yards downfield and 17 touchdown passes on the run since 2018
But the biggest impact is creating big plays when he decides it's time to win -- like uncorking a 44-yarder to Tyreek Hill from deep in the pocket on third-and-long in the Super Bowl.

"Talk to 31 defensive coordinators, they'd all say they are least excited about playing this guy," one NFL veteran assistant coach said. "Only getting better with dealing with defenses, too."

The Chiefs rave about his relatability and leadership, as well.

One knock is unnecessary risk-taking.

"Our coach came in our meeting room [before a Chiefs game] and said, 'Listen guys, his model is touchdown or touchback,'" one veteran NFL cornerback said. "He's gonna launch it. You saw it in the Super Bowl. They keep airing it out. So there are chances to get him."






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2. Russell Wilson, Seattle Seahawks
Age: 31 | Highest ranking: 2 | Lowest ranking: 9

Wilson dominated the second-place voting as he leans into his prime years, gaining strength while his peers age. He's coming off one of his most efficient seasons with a 6.2 touchdown-interception ratio, tops for anyone who also ranked top-10 in passing yardage.

He was the only NFL quarterback to rank top-five in QBR inside the pocket (fifth, 67.9) and outside (fourth, 82.8).

"He can do it all: stand in the pocket, extend plays, kills you on the move, has the magic to him," one veteran offensive coach said. "Stage gets bigger, he plays better."

Wilson thrives off unscripted plays so much that some don't consider him a rhythm-and-timing passer. Former Seahawks receivers are known to have to recalibrate their route running after years of just scrambling to get open in Seattle.

But who really cares when Wilson is tied with Mahomes with 17 touchdowns under duress since 2018, despite having a lesser supporting cast?

"He's never really had a top-10 receiver, his tight ends are just OK, line isn't great, and yet he keeps doing it every year," one NFC exec said.





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3. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Age: 36 | Highest ranking: 2 | Lowest ranking: 7

What's shocking about the Packers' decision to draft Jordan Love is that Rodgers isn't a fringe guy. He was No. 3 on this list by a wide margin, and voters swear it's not based on reputation.

"When he's humming, he's still Tier 1, without question," one NFL coordinator said. "The things he can do, maybe outside Mahomes, nobody can do. He's lost a little bit of athleticism. But when he can move around, and beat you inside out, holy s---, he's scary."


Rodgers' numbers from the past few years are just OK. The Packers looked woefully underwhelming at times in 2019. A player who used to reside annually in the 100-plus QB rating tier sagged to 95.4 last season.

But many believe Rodgers will be much better in Year 2 of Matt LaFleur's system -- and expect a huge response in light of the Love pick. Rodgers was Mahomes before Mahomes with the arm strength, and stories of his football mind are legendary. He can still attack anywhere on the field on split-second reaction plays.

One prominent NFL defensive coach recalled Rodgers trying to toy with him between each snap, looking his way from the line of scrimmage and saying, "Call it," knowing he's got the perfect counter for whatever the defense does. Call it justified arrogance.

"One time our safety ran out with the running back, Rodgers checked into something to beat the safety, then proceeded to kill him all game," a veteran NFL defensive back said. "He notices matchups like no other."





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4. Deshaun Watson, Houston Texans
Age: 24 | Highest ranking: 3 | Lowest ranking: 11

Watson was engaged in a tight race with Drew Brees for much of the voting, but he was consistently in the top six because of his toughness and the dynamic plays he creates.

"That Buffalo playoff game -- they won that game because of that guy. Nobody else," one veteran offensive coach said. "They had at least three free runs on him late and he made huge plays."

Added an NFC exec: "He's running for his life and he's still doing some special stuff."

That has played out in Watson's late-game consistency. Watson has 10 game-winning drives since 2018, the most of any NFL quarterback during that span.

One NFC exec says Watson isn't an easy evaluation because his skill set isn't overwhelming and he isn't a true pocket passer, but he just "makes things happen. He's comfortable doing what he's been doing all his life."

Scouts see shades of Wilson, with slightly less in the instincts and lower-body strength departments. He reduced his sacks from 62 to 44 in 2019, and finished sixth in completion percentage (67.3).

"Deshaun needs a little more structure," one coordinator said. "Not as dynamic as Russell or Kyler [Murray] with getting it done. He plays too much streetball and they let him. I don't see him coached."





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5. Drew Brees, New Orleans Saints
Age: 41 | Highest ranking: 2 | Lowest ranking: 11

This is where the QB picture gets complicated. Brees got many top-three votes because his pocket savvy is unreal and he's working with a true guru in coach Sean Payton. He just posted a career-high 116.3 passer rating and can complete 70% of his passes without sweating at this point.

But more than a few people noticed when Taysom Hill had to enter a game just to throw a deep ball. Even so, Brees was eighth in air yards per attempt, at 8.8.

"The system he's in is so ideal that I don't necessarily feel like he's dropped off that much," an AFC scout said. "I would be more concerned about Brees than Brady if I were a DC."

It's all about anticipation and smarts at this stage, and since the ball is usually out of his hands in two seconds or less, arm strength can be minimized.

Many expect Brees to be off this list next year, thanks to retirement.

"I think this is it, so we should all enjoy it," one NFL veteran linebacker said. "He's got the weapons around him to win another one."
 
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6. Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens
Age: 23 | Highest ranking: 2 | Lowest ranking: 12

Jackson's wide voter range is hardly a surprise for a player facing label issues since his Louisville days.

"I need to keep him high -- the kid played his ass off last year," one AFC exec said. "I hope he keeps doing it."

Some passing purists have a tough time putting Jackson too high, despite his No. 2 ranking in QBR (77.5) inside the pocket, and throwing 11 touchdowns under pressure. They believe, despite playmaking perhaps never seen before and improving accuracy, that the Ravens' offense built around his skill set masks a passer who is good but not great.

"He is who he is -- always a threat, but as more teams figure out Baltimore's offense, they won't be as caught off guard," an AFC exec said. "He'll eventually make plays with his arm, but he's not a guy you'd have a lot of confidence in doing it consistently."

An NFC exec says the "figure Baltimore out" argument is cute -- until Jackson runs through your gap assignment. Multiple coaches admitted Jackson simply made them look "stupid" last season.

"Defenses thought they were ready for him last year and he bludgeoned them," the AFC exec said. "He's doing things at a crazy elite level that no one has seen. They do such a good job with him, and he still wakes up a better athlete than 99% of the league."





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7. Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Age: 42 | Highest ranking: 1 | Lowest ranking: 12

Serious questions persist about whether Brady's declining arm can drive the ball over 16 games.

"I wasn't prepared for what I saw last year," one NFC exec said. "It's all anticipation and pre-snap ability now."

Added a veteran NFL quarterback: "If he was still in New England, not sure I would put him on [the list]. I put him on there because he's in Tampa, he's got weapons. He processes at such a high rate that when you have pieces around you, it still works."

Brady posted one 300-yard game after Week 6 last season, prompting speculation about whether the New England breakup wasn't one-sided. But Brady's pre-snap wizardry is still good enough to spark a Peyton Manning late-career arc.

"Tampa is gonna be really f---ing good," one NFL coordinator said. "Good defense, more weapons than Brady's ever had -- very similar to when Peyton went to Denver."





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8. Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
Age: 27 | Highest ranking: 2 | Lowest ranking: 14

We went into this exercise thinking Wentz vs. Dak Prescott would be tight, but it wasn't all that close, with Wentz holding a lead of nearly a full point over Prescott. However, Wentz is hardly a slam dunk for many. Some left him off their ballots because of the injuries.

"Such a creator -- no play is dead," an NFL head coach said.

Added an NFL coordinator: "It's hard to argue he's not top-10. You just wish he had a complete season. If he wins that Super Bowl in Philly, he's consensus top-five, because he's a top-five talent."

Wentz is elite outside the pocket, where he registered an 87.4 QBR with 7.5 yards per attempt and four touchdowns, production that ranks third leaguewide. Everyone saw that outrageous throw against Washington.

There's a lot going on with Wentz, who watched Nick Foles win his Super Bowl and has struggled to relate to some teammates. He's a nice guy who has probably isolated with his inner circle too much but is improving in that area.

He has eclipsed 64% passing once in four seasons, which isn't ideal. But winning four consecutive games to squeak into last season's playoffs with mostly practice-squad players earned him street cred.

"He can carry a team," one NFL assistant said. "Only a few guys can say that."





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9. Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys
Age: 26 | Highest ranking: 4 | Lowest ranking: 13

Prescott checks a lot of boxes. He averages 10 wins per season, he has never missed a game, he pushed for 5,000 yards last season and, as one NFL coordinator said after a recent film study, he has elite footwork in the pocket.

All this was enough to earn Prescott a few top-five votes, but he was mostly in the 7-to-12 range, with evaluators citing inconsistent ball placement as a core issue.

"He'll get paid as one of the best, but he's certainly not top-five and marginal top-10," one AFC exec said. "That great rookie season set the stage for him to hit another level that he never really was going to hit. The bar got set high and I don't know if he can reach it. Hasn't thrown it as well since [2016]."

The numbers say Prescott deserves more serious consideration. He was among the top eight in QBR while inside the pocket (67.7), outside the pocket (78.3) and under pressure (25.7). He had the second-most deep-ball completions in the NFL.

"The evolution of him is great," an AFC assistant coach said. "People said coming out he wasn't the most gifted rhythmic passer on timing, but he's really grown in that building. He's a pure pocket guy now with the ability to win with athleticism, and a lot of quarterbacks out there are not."

Many cite the Cowboys' loaded offensive depth chart as a comparison for quarterbacks on lesser teams: Imagine what Player X would do in that offense. Prescott has done pretty well with it. But fair or not, one playoff win in four years isn't enough for many.


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10. Matthew Stafford, Detroit Lions
Age: 32 | Highest ranking: 4 | Lowest ranking: 14

Maybe the tightest race of the position was Stafford vs. Matt Ryan at 10. Ryan had slightly more top-10 votes, but Stafford's average overall was higher. Expanding the voting to Ryan vs. Stafford exclusively gave Stafford the edge as well. He scares opposing teams more, can score from anywhere on the field, and where he plays counts.

"It's the Stafford syndrome -- he plays in Detroit, so he's not in a position to maximize his ability," one NFC exec said. "He's a major talent who'd probably be a top-five quarterback with an established franchise. He can score from anywhere on the field."

Most everyone agrees Stafford's arm is top-five level. He was on pace for nearly 5,000 yards and 38 touchdowns before a back injury cut his 2019 season short.

He was phenomenal from inside the pocket, with a league-leading 82.7 QBR, 66.2 completion percentage, 8.8 yards per attempt, 17 touchdowns and three interceptions.

The core issue with Stafford is simple.

"What has he really done?" asked multiple execs, referring to his 0-3 playoff record.



Also receiving votes


Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons (14): "He's answered the bell with consistency and durability. Great leader. The arm is probably declining." -- AFC scout

Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (8): The elbow injury that cost him 14 games and required surgery affected several voters. "Without the health concerns, he'd be on this list, no doubt. He can still get it done at a high level. You just don't know how he'll respond to the injury. Is the body breaking down?" -- AFC exec

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (5): "Kyler can take a normal drop, then make instinctual lateral slides in the pocket to get himself into an open throwing lane. That's rare. That's the baseball in him. And his arm talent is ridiculous." -- NFC exec

Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings (2): "I like Kirk. Developed into a good quarterback. Better arm than given credit for, and the system suits him perfectly." -- NFC exec

Jimmy Garoppolo, San Francisco 49ers (2): "He's a pure pocket guy with a great release and his teammates love him. He's probably got a ceiling, but I think he's a really good quarterback in this league." -- veteran NFL coach

Derek Carr, Las Vegas Raiders; Ryan Tannehill, Tennessee Titans; Jared Goff, Los Angeles Rams; Sam Darnold, New York Jets (1):

"Incredibly accurate, you just wonder if this is who he is." -- veteran NFL assistant on Carr

"Hard to pick a guy who threw the ball [14] times in a playoff game, but he really was good last year." -- NFC exec on Tannehill

"Throws the ball really well. Just never got the sense other teams fear him." -- NFL coordinator on Goff

"If we're projecting out, I think Darnold is going to have a big year. He's finally got a line to protect him." -- AFC exec on Darnold
 
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Womb Raider said:
Fantasy Football Stock Watch: Darius Slayton rising in rest-of-season rankings
Click to expand...
Fantasy football stock watch: Rankings for the rest of the 2020 NFL season

Welcome back to another season of the weekly Stock Watch combined with the much-debated rest-of-season rankings, as it seems like nearly everything we thought we knew before the first weekend of the season has already changed before the second week begins!

OK, that's some hyperbole, but it is certainly true that fantasy managers are a rather impatient lot and one great game in the opening weekend can alter perspective, as can a poor one, or an injury or even the hint of a newfound position battle. We try to cut through all of that in the season debut of these rankings, which aim to tell a story of order from this point forward, sans too much overreaction.

QB Stock Up
Cam Newton, New England Patriots: Well, that was quick, but it was also against a terrible team, so while Newton forces his way into the top 10 at quarterback, it would be nice if he played well in Week 2 at Seattle to justify the move. Frankly, some of the back-end options among QB1 options struggled a bit, including the one Newton replaced in Massachusetts, and that really opened the door for us to trust Newton more than perhaps we should.

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills: Again, part of the reason he creeps back into the top 10 at the position is because others dropped, but Allen did perform well against a clueless Jets team, surpassing 300 passing yards for the first time in his young career and rushing 14 times for 57 yards and a score. He also missed a wide-open end zone target, reminding us he is far from accurate as a passer. Be careful here. Fourteen rushes is a lot, probably too many, and that is a major part of his value.

Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago Bears: As with Newton, here is another fellow whose career can still turn in another direction rather quickly. Trubisky thrived in Week 1, as he did at times last season before he lost his grip on the starter role. Nick Foles still lurks, and nobody thinks Trubisky is close to QB1 territory, but his play deserves a deep-league look.

QB Stock Down
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles: Tom Brady is the obvious choice to lead this section, but I tore apart his value in my Sunday night column previewing Week 2, and then ranked him ahead of the wildly inconsistent Wentz, who threw Sunday's game away in Washington. Wentz needs better protection and more weapons, neither of which might occur any time soon, but his decision-making confounds, too. With durability questions as well, those in deep leagues should stash rookie Jalen Hurts just in case.



Baker Mayfield, Cleveland Browns: What a mess. Sure, he had to face a top defense, but he still looks nothing like the Heisman winner or promising rookie, and if I had drafted Odell Beckham Jr. in any leagues -- I did not -- I would already be trying to trade him.

RB Stock Up
Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Kansas City Chiefs: Nobody rushed for more yards than he did in Week 1, and it sure looks as if touchdowns will not be a problem. I hedged just a little in the preseason rankings, but he really is a candidate for the top overall spot now. For now, he makes the top five.

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts: Another first-year player, Taylor looked fine catching passes in his debut, and now that Marlon Mack is done for the season, Taylor's role should expand, even more so than Nyheim Hines. The Colts will likely sign a free agent such as Lamar Miller for depth, but Taylor is ready to star.

Malcolm Brown, Los Angeles Rams: While everyone gushed over rookie Cam Akers and sophomore Darrell Henderson Jr., the Rams relied on the 27-year-old Brown for 21 touches and a pair of touchdowns. It hardly means the younger fellows cannot help your fantasy team this season, if you keep them rostered, but Brown is a potential RB2 until further notice. Not all breakouts are young players!

Joshua Kelley, Los Angeles Chargers: It is premature to call this rookie a safe flex option, but he sure looked better than Justin Jackson and then he split the carries in the second half with Austin Ekeler. Kelley is no pass-catching option, but he could flirt with double-digit rushing touchdowns.

RB Stock Down
James Conner, Pittsburgh Steelers: It was just one game, but it was a really bad one for Conner, who sprained an ankle and watched Benny Snell Jr. run for 113 yards. Perhaps Conner remains the starter when healthy, but Snell simply looks like the better player, so opportunity should be forthcoming.

Mark Ingram II, Baltimore Ravens: Perhaps Ingram averaging a paltry 2.9 yards per rush while rookie J.K. Dobbins scored a pair of goal-line touchdowns is no big deal and the value reverses moving ahead, but I would not bet on that. Dobbins is clearly the future here. Wow, so many young running backs to love!

Le'Veon Bell, New York Jets: Sure looks like Year 2 in North Jersey is not going to fare better than the first season, thanks to the mess around him, including the coaching. Bell turned six carries into 14 yards while nursing a hamstring injury and now figures to miss several weeks. Many fantasy managers will aggressively dump him for Peyton Barber or Adrian Peterson, and while I would not, I have moved on from Bell providing RB2 numbers in 2020. Frank Gore probably gets first shot over Josh Adams and La'Mical Perine, but these are the Jets. Can anyone succeed?



D'Andre Swift, Detroit Lions: He rushed for a short touchdown in his debut, but everyone will remember him dropping the wide-open, would've-been-game-winning touchdown in the final seconds in the end zone instead. With Peterson handling most of the carries and Kerryon Johnson still here, it appears a swift move into fantasy glory is not imminent for the rookie. I still believe he stars for dynasty leaguers later this season, though.

WR Stock Up
JuJu Smith-Schuster, Pittsburgh Steelers: Well, at least Ben Roethlisberger remains upright and healthy enough to keep playing, because if he goes down again, so does the value of the receivers. Smith-Schuster looked terrific on Monday and vaults into near WR1 range.

Darius Slayton, New York Giants: I suppose I can see why some still trust Sterling Shepard more for fantasy, but young quarterback Daniel Jones just looks more comfortable finding Slayton, who scored twice on Monday and gets open down the field. This is a potential WR2 at some point. I do not think Shepard is.

WR Stock Down
DeVante Parker, Miami Dolphins: Others in the WR1 and WR2 range are hurting and could miss games, but nobody is dropping Kenny Golladay or Courtland Sutton, at least I hope not. With Parker, dealing with a hamstring injury, we loved his 2019 season but few have forgotten his struggles prior to the breakout. Keep him rostered if you can, but many will not.

Deebo Samuel, San Francisco 49ers: Still a very promising fantasy option if he can get on the field, Samuel had a setback in his recovery from foot surgery and now hopes to return in Week 4. Look, be optimistic if you can, but Week 4 is no lock and this is not a high-powered passing offense to start with. Again, try to keep him rostered, even as he misses games.

TE Stock Up
O.J. Howard, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Philly's Dallas Goedert moved up more spots, and I discussed him in this video about his value in connection with Zach Ertz, but Howard versus Rob Gronkowski is another interesting battle. Howard not only caught one of Brady's touchdowns, but he had twice as many targets as Gronk, albeit with fewer snaps. Howard is so talented, and perhaps this is his breakout season.

TE Stock Down
Evan Engram, New York Giants: The narrative on him is he would generally play well when healthy, but he caught only two of seven targets on Monday. Do not drop him yet, or Cleveland's Austin Hooper, who similarly was quiet in Week 1, but fantasy managers are not patient!
 
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Morethan1 said:
@Skooby

How 11 teams can prepare to chase Giannis Antetokounmpo
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Chasing Giannis Antetokounmpo: How 11 teams can try to land MVP

After a second-round playoff exit with the Milwaukee Bucks, reigning NBA MVP Giannis Antetokounmpo is eligible to sign a supermax extension this offseason. That would keep him in Milwaukee for the majority of his prime.

But if Antetokounmpo, 25, elects to wait until 2021 free agency to make a decision about his future, the Bucks should not panic. The same $220 million supermax contract will still be there after the season. Milwaukee should feel confident that it can make the best financial and basketball pitch. Plus, the team will have one more year to recruit him as a legitimate title contender and perhaps improve the roster with a trade.

If Antetokounmpo makes a surprise move and demands a trade, though, that's a different story.

Here is a look at the teams that have cap space to sign the reigning MVP as a free agent in 2021 and what teams could offer in a trade, starting with his current team in Milwaukee and what is available should it attempt to make upgrades.




Note: Because the 2021-22 salary cap still needs to be negotiated between the NBA and National Basketball Players Association, we are using a $109.1 million cap -- the same as 2019-20 and likely 2020-21.



Milwaukee Bucks


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There will be calls to break up the current group, especially after the Bucks lost to the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference semifinals, but this is not like the roster Anthony Davis left in New Orleans. The Bucks have won 75% of their regular-season games the past two seasons. While they should go through the due diligence of canvassing the league for potential upgrades, they don't need a complete roster overhaul.

This week, owner Marc Lasry told Antetokounmpo the franchise is willing to spend into the luxury tax to deliver him a championship supporting cast, according to a report by ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.

Off the table: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Draft assets

  • 2020 first-round pick from Indiana (No. 24)
  • Own first-rounder (likely starting in 2024)
The Bucks will send the Cleveland Cavaliers a 2022 first-rounder if it falls outside of the top 10. The first has protection in 2023 (top 10 and Nos. 25-30) and 2024 (top eight). Milwaukee cannot trade a first until two years after the pick is conveyed.

Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)

Complicating factors:

  • How much can the Bucks upgrade this roster by offering a combination of OK draft assets and those tradable contracts? A package of Bledsoe, Robin Lopez (if he opts in to his contract), Ilyasova, Wilson and draft picks for Chris Paul works, but is that enough to entice the Thunder?




Teams with 2021 cap space

Before the economics of the NBA crashed amid the coronavirus pandemic, the league was projecting the salary cap for 2021-22 to come in at $125 million. Now, team executives are forecasting that the number to be as low as $109.1 million -- the same cap figure from the 2019-20 season.

That $16 million decrease in flexibility would all but eliminate the Los Angeles Lakers from being a serious contender to sign Antetokounmpo. It would also require the Dallas Mavericks to shed contracts to create a max slot and force the Toronto Raptors to take a cautious approach this offseason, because to sign Antetokounmpo in the summer of 2021, the magic number is $32.7 million (30% of the cap).

The Bucks can offer $80 million more in a new contract when factoring in the extra year and larger annual raises, but Antetokounmpo could opt to sign a three-year contract with a player option in the third season. By summer 2023, Antetokounmpo will have reached 10 years of service, increasing his starting salary to 35% of the cap and, most important, allowing the salary cap the opportunity to rebound. In 2023, Antetokounmpo will turn 29 and could sign a four-year, $196 million contract if the cap increases to $125 million.





Miami Heat

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Outside of Milwaukee, the $35 million in projected room puts the Heat in the driver's seat with Antetokounmpo. The cupboard is far from bare, with All-Stars Butler and Adebayo along with a young core of Herro, Nunn and Robinson on the roster. The Heat can sign guard Goran Dragic to a one-year, $20 million contract this summer, renounce his rights in 2021 and then circle back using the $4.8 million room exception.

And one under-the-radar item the Heat can sell Antetokounmpo on is their scouting staff. In the past four years, Miami has drafted Adebayo and Herro outside the top 10 and signed undrafted players like Nunn and Robinson.

2020-21 trade considerations: Past deals have Miami sending Oklahoma City 2021 and 2023 first-round picks. The Heat are not allowed to trade a first until two years after their obligation to the Thunder is met (likely not until 2025). In regard to players, the Heat have two large contracts in Olynyk ($12.6 million) and Iguodala ($15.0 million) along with their young players in Herro, Robinson and Nunn.

The question that would be weighed internally is the benefits of trading for Antetokounmpo vs. attempting to sign him outright in 2021.





Toronto Raptors

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The Raptors would be one of the teams affected if the salary cap remains at $109.1 million. Instead of having $60 million and room to comfortably re-sign 2020 free agent Fred VanVleet, the Raptors would have $43 million in 2021 before factoring in a new VanVleet deal.

Toronto could still have enough room to sign Antetokounmpo even if VanVleet is signed to a four-year, $80 million contract this offseason. However, in order to get to a max slot, Powell would need to opt out of his $11.6 million contract or the Raptors would need to find a trade partner.

2020-21 trade considerations: Setting aside Siakam and VanVleet leaves Toronto with the expiring contract of Lowry along with cap fillers such as Powell and McCaw. Toronto could sign Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol to one-year contracts to move at a later date, but both players would have veto power on any trade due to Bird rights.

The Raptors own all their first-round picks.





Dallas Mavericks

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The Mavericks would have been sitting on a max slot if the salary cap stayed at $125 million. Instead, they will need to trade $15 million in contracts to create the room to pursue Antetokounmpo. But Dallas does have expiring contracts in Wright ($8.5 million) and Finney-Smith ($4.0 million) along with team-friendly deals in Powell, Curry and Kleber to make the maneuvers possible.

2020-21 trade considerations: It's unlikely given the health concerns and $130 million still left on the contract, but would the Bucks consider an Antetokounmpo-for-Porzingis swap? After Porzingis and, of course, Doncic, the Dallas roster is filled with serviceable role players. The Mavericks are also restricted from sending out draft picks because New York is owed a 2021 unprotected first and 2023 top-10 protected first via Dallas. The earliest Dallas could trade a first would be 2025.
 
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Los Angeles Lakers

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There is a way for the Lakers to get a max slot, but it would come with a financial sacrifice from James. With the Lakers projected to have $16.5 million in room if they renounce the rights to Kuzma, James would have to opt out of his $41 million contract and sign for $24.8 million. The $16.2 million reduction in salary would leave the Lakers with the necessary max cap space.

2020-21 trade considerations: The Lakers depleted their draft assets to acquire Davis. And outside of James and Davis, there are no blue-chip prospects on the roster.



New York Knicks

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We would be foolish not to list the Knicks despite their consistent presence in the lottery. New York projects to have $62 million in room if it remains conservative this offseason. It will sound familiar, but that's enough room to sign two max players.

As history has proved, though, it's the product on the court and not the Madison Square Garden bright lights that will lure marquee free agents. From that perspective, there is plenty of work to do for New York to get into the Antetokounmpo sweepstakes.

2020-21 trade considerations: The Knicks check all the boxes when it comes to putting together an attractive trade package -- draft picks, young players and expiring contracts. But the cupboard will be bare if Antetokounmpo leaves after one season.

Besides their own first-round picks in every season, the Knicks have the Clippers' first-rounder this year and Mavericks' picks in 2021 and 2023. There are also the expiring contracts of Ellington, Gibson and Payton (if they're not waived) along with the $18.9 million salary of Randle.





Other teams with room in 2021: Barring big moves, the other teams with cap space would be the Atlanta Hawks, Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls, Cleveland Cavaliers, Detroit Pistons, Memphis Grizzlies, Phoenix Suns and San Antonio Spurs.

Trade partners in 2020-21

Following the Bucks' elimination, Antetokounmpo told Yahoo's Chris Haynes he won't be demanding a trade out of Milwaukee, but that doesn't mean franchises won't be ready to make an offer if Giannis changes that stance before next season's trade deadline.

As with Kawhi Leonard and Anthony Davis, a supermax offer is null once a player who has met the criteria gets traded. There is the benefit to an acquiring team, though: It would inherit Antetokounmpo's Bird rights, allowing a five-year contract (instead of four), larger annual raises (8% vs. 5%) and the ability to exceed the salary cap.

But this all comes at the risk of sacrificing draft assets and players for a star who could enter free agency in 2021.




Golden State Warriors

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The Warriors have $146 million in guaranteed contracts in 2021, not including space allocated for the 2020 No. 2 pick. They do not have a clear path to sign Antetokounmpo as a free agent, and that lack of cap space would give Golden State zero leverage in trying to force a trade.

While there is certainly appeal to the Warriors' pick in this year's draft and the Minnesota Timberwolves' first-rounder in 2021, there is less of an appetite for the $90 million still owed to Andrew Wiggins. And Golden State's own first-rounders in 2021 and 2022 have little value.

Off the table: Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson

Draft assets and trade exceptions

  • 2020 first-round pick (No. 2)
  • $17.2 million trade exception
  • 2021 first-round pick from Minnesota, top-three protected (unprotected in 2022 if not conveyed)
  • 2021 own first-round pick
  • 2022 own first-round pick
  • 2027 own first-round pick
Note: The Warriors owe Memphis a top-four-protected first in 2024 from the Iguodala trade. The pick has top-one protection in 2025 and is unprotected in 2026. As a result, the Warriors cannot trade a first until two years after that pick is conveyed.

Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)

  • The No. 2 pick in the 2020 draft: $8.7 million; restricted free agent in 2024 (player cannot be traded until 30 days after he signs his contract)
  • Draymond Green: $22.4 million, player option in 2023-24
  • Andrew Wiggins: $29.5 million, free agent in 2023
  • Kevon Looney: $5.2 million, player option in 2021-22
  • Jordan Poole: $3.2 million, restricted free agent in 2022
  • Eric Paschall: $1.8 million, restricted free agent in 2022
Complicating factors:

  • $95 million left on Wiggins' contract
  • Inability to trade their own first until from 2023 through 2025
  • $10.8 million Green trade bonus


New Orleans Pelicans

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The Pelicans certainly have the draft assets to put together an appealing package. However, with Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram likely off the table, Milwaukee would be staring at two expiring contracts -- Jrue Holiday or JJ Redikk -- along with Lonzo Ball, Josh Hart, Jaxson Hayes and Nickeil Alexander-Walker.

Off the table: Williamson and Ingram

Ingram is off the table even if he re-signs as a free agent. The forward would have a minimum three-month trade restriction. The Pelicans can arrange a sign-and-trade with Ingram (if he approves), but base-year compensation would make it nearly impossible to put a package together.

Draft assets

  • 2020 own first-round pick (No. 13)
  • Own all future first-round picks (2021-27)
  • 2021 first from Lakers (if 1-8); pick becomes unprotected in 2022 if not conveyed
  • Right to swap first-round picks with Lakers in 2023
  • 2024 first from Lakers (can be deferred to 2025)
Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)

  • Jrue Holiday: $26.0 million, player option in 2021-22
  • Lonzo Ball: $11.0 million, restricted free agent in 2021
  • Josh Hart: $3.5 million, restricted free agent in 2021
  • JJ Redikk: $13.0 million, free agent in 2021
  • Jaxson Hayes: $5.1 million, restricted free agent in 2023
  • Nickeil Alexander-Walker: $3.1 million, restricted free agent in 2023
  • Nicolo Melli: $3.9 million, restricted free agent in 2021
  • Darius Miller: $7.0 million (non-guaranteed), free agent in 2021
Complicating factors:

  • Depleting their assets for one year of Antetokounmpo

Oklahoma City Thunder

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The Thunder can top any offer for Antetokounmpo in a trade. Oklahoma City has 13 first-round picks in the next seven years, along with two years in which it can swap with the Clippers. General manager Sam Presti showed he was willing to take a chance in 2017 when he acquired Paul George on an expiring contract. Would that same risk-taking hold true if Antetokounmpo becomes available?

Unlikely with Billy Donovan out as coach, and the early inclinations are that the Thunder will start a retooling of their roster.

Off the table: Nobody

Draft assets

  • 2020 first-round pick from Denver (No. 20)
  • Own first-rounder in 2021, 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 and 2027
  • First-rounder from Miami or Houston (top-four protected) in 2021
  • First-rounders from the Clippers in 2022, 2024 and 2026
  • Right to swap pick with the Clippers in 2023
  • First-rounder from Miami in 2023 (top-14 protected)
  • First-rounders from Houston in 2024 (top-four protected) and 2026 (top-four protected)
  • Right to swap pick with Clippers or Houston (top-10 protected) in 2025
Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)

Complicating factors:

  • What would be left after cashing in draft assets?
 
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Philadelphia 76ers

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GM Elton Brand made it clear in his end-of-season address with the media that Joel Embiid and Ben Simmons are not available in trade talks. Would that change if Antetokounmpo were on the trade block?

Off the table: Nobody

Draft assets

  • 2020 first-round pick from Oklahoma City (No. 21)
  • Own all future first-round picks (2021-2017)
Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)

  • Ben Simmons: $27.3 million, unrestricted free agent in 2025
  • Joel Embiid: $29.5 million, unrestricted free agent in 2023
  • Tobias Harris: $34.4 million, unrestricted free agent in 2024
  • Al Horford: $27.5 million, unrestricted free agent in 2023
  • Josh Richardson: $10.9 million, player option in 2021
  • Matisse Thybulle: $2.7 million, restricted free agent in 2023
  • Mike Scott: $5.0 million, unrestricted free agent in 2021
  • Zhaire Smith: $3.2 million, restricted free agent in 2022
  • Shake Milton: $1.7 million, team option in 2022
  • Furkan Korkmaz: $1.8 million, unrestricted free agent in 2021
  • Norvel Pelle: $1.5 million, restricted free agent in 2021
Complicating factors:

  • Is Simmons or Embiid available?
  • $141 million left on Harris' contract
  • $60 million left on Horford's contract




Portland Trail Blazers

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When a team has a top-five player like Damian Lillard and gets bounced out in the first round of the playoffs, its front office should be looking at all roster options -- including what it would take to acquire Antetokounmpo.

To get their foot in the door, the Blazers' trade package would have to focus around CJ McCollum, Gary Trent Jr. and draft compensation comparable to what the Lakers sent the Pelicans in the AD trade (three first-round picks and a pick swap).

Off the table: Lillard

Draft assets

  • Own all future first-round picks (2020-2027)
Tradable contracts (2020-21 season)

  • CJ McCollum: $29.4 million, unrestricted free agent in 2024
  • Jusuf Nurkic: $12.0 million, unrestricted free agent in 2022
  • Zach Collins: $5.4 million, restricted free agent in 2021
  • Gary Trent Jr.: $1.7 million, restricted free agent in 2021
  • Rodney Hood: $6.0 million, unrestricted free agent in 2021 (if he opts in)
  • Mario Hezonja: $2.0 million, unrestricted free agent in 2021 (if he opts in)
  • Trevor Ariza: $12.8 million ($1.8 million guaranteed, fully guaranteed at start of free agency), unrestricted free agent in 2021
  • Anfernee Simons: $2.3 million, restricted free agent in 2022
  • Nassir Little: $2.2 million, restricted free agent in 2023
Complicating factors:

  • Collins' injury history
  • Is a combination of McCollum, Trent, Nurkic and Collins enough?
 
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Womb Raider said:
Fantasy football flex rankings for Week 3
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Fantasy football flex rankings for Week 3

Injuries have removed the first two picks from most ESPN fantasy football drafts, but plenty of excellent players remain for Week 3. Welcome back, as we are again fortunate enough to share one man's opinions when it comes to flex rankings in PPR formats.

One piece of advice: Don't even think about which round you drafted a player in or what you traded to acquire him. Play your best options by checking out our rankings and projections, and trusting your intuition. Good luck!

1. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Cowboys: Plenty of volume in a terrific offense, and the matchup in Seattle should not be a problem for him. No matchup is, really.
2. Alvin Kamara, RB, Saints: Monster receiving totals and all the touchdowns he wants. Nice combination.
3. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Cardinals: Kyler Murray is tremendous running and throwing.
4. Davante Adams, WR, Packers
5. Derrick Henry, RB, Titans
6. Austin Ekeler, RB, Chargers: Bounced back in the receiving department in Week 2 and gets tasty matchup with Panthers this week.
7. Dalvin Cook, RB, Vikings: Have to admit some concern about this offense. Cook has six receiving yards in two games. Yuck.
8. Aaron Jones, RB, Packers: Ran all over and through the Lions, and until further notice let us assume no defense will keep him in check.
9. Miles Sanders, RB, Eagles
10. Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders
11. Michael Thomas, WR, Saints: Still seems like a small reach to me that he plays, but this is where he ranks should he suit up. This offense obviously needs him desperately.
12. Tyreek Hill, WR, Chiefs: It's a Ravens matchup, but how can you stop Patrick Mahomes and his top wide receiver?
13. Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts
14. Clyde Edwards-Helaire, RB, Chiefs: Not such a great Week 2 for him, but it's not like another running back on this team took his touches, either.
15. Chris Carson, RB, Seahawks
16. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Steelers: Big Ben and the passing offense is thriving and proving it did not need Antonio Brown.
17. Kenyan Drake, RB, Cardinals
18. Nick Chubb, RB, Browns
19. Joe Mixon, RB, Bengals: Philadelphia got run all over by the Rams and Mixon should enjoy himself.
20. DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks: Not sure how any defense can contain him, and the Cowboys have not played awesome pass defense.
21. Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks
22. Allen Robinson II, WR, Bears
23. Julio Jones, WR, Falcons: Bad numbers and an injury concern already, but still, this is Julio Jones. Do not worry yet.
24. Adam Thielen, WR, Vikings
25. Chris Godwin, WR, Buccaneers: Concussion concerns have passed, for now. Remember, a player is more likely to get another one after dealing with one. Separately, we might have greatly misjudged this passing offense sans Jameis Winston.
26. James Conner, RB, Steelers: His fall from grace was greatly misjudged after Week 1. Just do not expect him to play all 16 games.
27. Kareem Hunt, RB, Browns
28. Melvin Gordon III, RB, Broncos: Unfortunate change at quarterback should not affect him much. Jeff Driskel and Blake Bortles are not rookies.
29. Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers
30. Travis Kelce, TE, Chiefs
31. Amari Cooper, WR, Cowboys
32. Kenny Golladay, WR, Lions: Back from his hamstring injury and as far as we know, no reason to expect a reduced role.
33. Calvin Ridley, WR, Falcons: Premature to call him the top Atlanta wide receiver, but make sure he is in your lineups.
34. David Montgomery, RB, Bears: Averaging 5 yards per rush and playing a role in the passing game, and these are very good things.
35. James Robinson, RB, Jaguars
36. Leonard Fournette, RB, Buccaneers: Perhaps a fluid situation with which running back gets the most volume, but Fournette sure looks like the leader today.
37. Joshua Kelley, RB, Chargers: Rookie looks like he is playing the Melvin Gordon role, and he might be just as valuable already.
38. Todd Gurley II, RB, Falcons: Not impressed with his 3.3 yards per rush or, after two games, a grand total of one receiving yard. If you can trade him for a fantasy starter, do it.
39. Diontae Johnson, WR, Steelers: Forcing his way into WR2 status, even while dealing with a toe injury.
40. DJ Moore, WR, Panthers
41. Mark Andrews, TE, Ravens
42. Julian Edelman, WR, Patriots: Cam Newton looks great as a passer as well, and Edelman is getting targets downfield, too.
43. Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington: Just a matter of time before he strings together multiple 100-yard games.
44. Antonio Gibson, RB, Washington
45. David Johnson, RB, Texans: One good game and one that was not so good. I would try to get a starter for him before it is too late, but I know others love him.
46. DJ Chark Jr., WR, Jaguars: Not sure why so many believed his rookie season was a fluke. Gardner Minshew II loves him.
47. Marvin Jones Jr., WR, Lions
48. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Browns
49. Robert Woods, WR, Rams
50. Stefon Diggs, WR, Bills: Who is this new-and-improved Josh Allen and can this success throwing the football continue?
51. Keenan Allen, WR, Chargers
52. Mike Davis, RB, Panthers: Christian McCaffrey figures to miss a few weeks, and Davis is the hot pickup entering Week 3. He must catch passes to make it worth it.
53. Devin Singletary, RB, Bills: This offense is throwing the ball, and its running backs are not producing.
54. Mark Ingram II, RB, Ravens
55. Marquise Brown, WR, Ravens
56. A.J. Green, WR, Bengals: Eight catches on 22 targets so far, which is not all his fault, but he has not been great.
57. A.J. Brown, WR, Titans: A bone bruise in his knee could keep him out again, but the way Ryan Tannehill is playing, if Brown plays, he is intriguing.
58. CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys: Looks like a star in the making in this offense and leads rookie wide receivers in PPR scoring. It should continue.
59. DeVante Parker, WR, Dolphins
60. Myles Gaskin, RB, Dolphins: Top choice in Miami backfield, which has some value if he keeps getting so many targets.
61. James White, RB, Patriots
62. Dion Lewis, RB, Giants: Pass-catcher gets first chance with Saquon Barkley done for the season, though newcomer Devonta Freeman catches passes as well. It might be hard for a Giants running back to succeed.
63. Cooper Kupp, WR, Rams
64. Tyler Boyd, WR, Bengals: Boyd is the top Cincinnati wide receiver so far, and he and Joe Burrow should enjoy a productive relationship for years.
65. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Colts
66. Nyheim Hines, RB, Colts: Seven carries and nine receptions in two games, nearly all of it in Week 1. Deserves a flex look for now, but time is running out.
67. Tarik Cohen, RB, Bears
68. Boston Scott, RB, Eagles
69. D'Andre Swift, RB, Lions: Would like to see more than four rushing attempts per game, but for now this is what we get. Keep him rostered.
70. N'Keal Harry, WR, Patriots: Breakout performer in Year 2 thanks to Cam Newton throwing deep.
71. Darius Slayton, WR, Giants: More productive than Sterling Shepard anyway, and Daniel Jones might really lean on Slayton now.
72. Robby Anderson, WR, Panthers: Who had this fellow for being fifth among wide receivers in PPR scoring entering Week 3? It can't last, but he can remain relevant.
73. Darren Waller, TE, Raiders
74. George Kittle, TE, 49ers: Team claims he is playing, and if he does, you play him, but some concern about volume.
75. John Brown, WR, Bills
76. Michael Gallup, WR, Cowboys
77. Jamison Crowder, WR, Jets
78. Jerick McKinnon, RB, 49ers: Should see volume with Raheem Mostert and Tevin Coleman out, but the team likes the fellow next on this list, too.
79. Jeff Wilson Jr., RB, 49ers
80. Frank Gore, RB, Jets: More rushing yards through two games than Singletary, Ingram and all but five rookies. Celebrate Gore playing, but it's tough to rely on him.
81. Zack Moss, RB, Bills
82. Will Fuller V, WR, Texans: If he cannot stay healthy, then he cannot consistently help your fantasy team. He cannot consistently stay healthy.
83. Preston Williams, WR, Dolphins
84. Jarvis Landry, WR, Browns: Can't blame it all on Baker Mayfield.
85. Ronald Jones II, RB, Buccaneers: Deserved a better fate, but the NFL is not a fair league.
86. Malcolm Brown, RB, Rams: Finger injury not a big deal, so this ranking could look silly if he gets into the end zone.
87. Chris Thompson, RB, Jaguars: Tough to regard him similarly to other pass-catching running backs with so little volume.
88. Mike Williams, WR, Chargers
89. Laviska Shenault Jr., WR, Jaguars
90. Henry Ruggs III, WR, Raiders
91. Christian Kirk, WR, Cardinals
92. Jerry Jeudy, WR, Broncos: Rookie did better when Driskel stepped in, so again, do not worry about the passer change.
93. Hunter Henry, TE, Chargers
94. Mike Gesicki, TE, Dolphins: Emerging talent leads all Miami flex options in PPR scoring, and it could continue.
95. Duke Johnson, RB, Texans
96. Latavius Murray, RB, Saints
97. Jamaal Williams, RB, Packers
98. Brandin Cooks, WR, Texans
99. Corey Davis, WR, Titans
100. Russell Gage, WR, Falcons

Others: Rex Burkhead, RB, Patriots; Kerryon Johnson, RB, Lions; J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ravens; Noah Fant, TE, Broncos; Zach Ertz, TE, Eagles; Darrell Henderson Jr., RB, Rams; DeSean Jackson, WR, Eagles; Curtis Samuel, WR, Panthers; J.D. McKissic, RB, Washington; Wayne Gallman, RB, Giants; Keelan Cole Sr., WR, Jaguars; Chase Edmonds, RB, Cardinals; Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals; Adrian Peterson, RB, Lions
 
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