Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

[Skooby]

12. Las Vegas Raiders
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

The Raiders of course dealt Amari Cooper to the Cowboys 18 months ago, and the Antonio Brown experience didn't work out last summer. And Tyrell Williams isn't a No. 1 option. So there is a glaring need at receiver for the Raiders in Year 1 in Las Vegas, and this class features multiple elite talents at the position. Lamb knows how to create separation and is terrific after the catch. Derek Carr has had success in the past when given legitimate receivers to work with, and Lamb paired with Darren Waller and Williams should put the seventh-year QB in a better spot.

13. Indianapolis Colts
Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

In the first season since Andrew Luck shockingly retired, the Colts' passing game averaged 194.3 yards per game, third-worst in the league, under Jacoby Brissett. Luck had them at No. 6 in the NFL the previous season, and the aerial attack flameout left the Colts at 7-9 in a division that featured two playoff teams. A change under center is likely needed. Brissett has another year on his deal, and that'll be important. Herbert needs a little more time. The 6-6 gunslinger tested well at the combine and lit up the Senior Bowl in January, but consistency concerns haven't gone away. He has the physical traits you want in a quarterback, including a big arm and mobility, but questions about whether he can lead an NFL offense explain why Herbert is available to the Colts at No. 13.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia

Swift is explosive, and while Ronald Jones II looked good at moments in 2019, the Bucs could use some explosion in the run game. Hand him the ball, and watch him make one cut and turn on his 4.48 40 speed. Tampa Bay was bottom-third in rushing last season and ranked 17th in receptions by running backs. Swift, one of the best pass-catching RBs in the class, would help in both areas. But keep an eye on QB and edge rusher too. If Jameis Winston doesn't return and Love or Herbert slide, this could be a good landing spot. And with all of the Bucs' potential losses to their pass rush, reaching for someone such as LSU defensive end K'Lavon Chaisson here could be in play.

15. Denver Broncos
Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama
Alabama safety Xavier McKinney would help lessen a potential free-agency loss of Justin Simmons, while Florida's CJ Henderson would be a solid replacement for Chris Harris Jr. at corner. And South Carolina's Javon Kinlaw could drop into a defensive line losing a few pieces, though he is more of a 4-3 interior guy than a true 3-4 nose tackle. But with Ruggs and his fighter jet 4.27 speed still on the board, I'm getting a burner opposite Courtland Sutton for second-year quarterback Drew Lock. Ruggs is explosive and has a skill set that offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur can design plays around. With some development to his route running and some tacked-on strength, Ruggs has the chance to be special in the NFL and could instantly be a favorite target of the big-armed Lock.

16. Atlanta Falcons
K'Lavon Chaisson, DE, LSU

I considered Kinlaw here too, and even pondered reaching for Notre Dame tight end Cole Kmet, but the Falcons really need an edge rusher. Vic Beasley Jr. is leaving in free agency, and Adrian Clayborn might join him. Takkarist McKinley's future in Atlanta beyond this coming season is hazy, as well. Chaisson surged late in the 2019 campaign as an athletic pass-rusher with speed. If he adds some power, my second-ranked edge rusher could be a great get for the Falcons in the middle of the first round. They tied for second-fewest sacks in the NFL last season with 28.

17. Dallas Cowboys
Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama

We'll have more of a tell on what the Cowboys might do at No. 17 after free agency. They have a quartet of players in need of new deals (Dak Prescott, Amari Cooper, Byron Jones and Robert Quinn), and whoever is the odd man out will leave behind an opening. Henderson, for instance, would make sense as a replacement at corner for Jones. But that secondary is already looking for help on the back end. Xavier Woods is a capable safety, but with Darian Thompson, Kavon Frazier and Jeff Heath all pending free agents, the other spot is wide open. Dallas hasn't had a high-impact safety like McKinney, who had 95 tackles and pulled in three interceptions last season, in years. His 4.63 40 time was a bit disappointing, but McKinney does have some range to his game, and he is super instinctive.

18. Miami Dolphins (from PIT)
CJ Henderson, CB, Florida

After getting their coveted quarterback earlier, the Dolphins bring in a talented cornerback to line up opposite Xavien Howard. It is another spot where I would have liked to finally take Kinlaw off the board, but after drafting Christian Wilkins last year, the interior defensive line isn't very high on the lengthy list of weaknesses in need of addressing. While Nik Needham and Eric Rowe teamed up for 20 passes defended and three interceptions in 2019, Miami needs a smooth, athletic corner such as Henderson. He posted a 4.39 in the 40 and has good ball skills.

19. Las Vegas Raiders (from CHI)
Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina

This is a big win for the Raiders, who already took an elite receiver in Lamb at No. 12 and now get a physical freak of nature in the middle of the defensive line. Kinlaw has power and twitch, and his Senior Bowl performance a month ago showed us all just how dominant he can be on the interior. Raiders coach Jon Gruden would love to drop Kinlaw in the middle of that line and team him up with 2019 picks Clelin Ferrell and Maxx Crosby to create havoc for opponents. The Raiders tied for the eighth-fewest sacks in 2019 (32), but it was a big improvement from their 13 in 2018. Kinlaw will not only help that pass rush make the next step but also help keep the run defense a team strength.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR)
Ross Blacklock, DT, TCU

Blacklock has very good size and power, and he'd go a long way in improving what was one of the worst run defenses in the NFL last season. The Jaguars opted to decline Marcell Dareus' contract option for 2020, and Taven Bryan hasn't worked out well in Jacksonville. Tackle is a huge need. That said, if Yannick Ngakoue does indeed play elsewhere next season, the Jags could look at someone like A.J. Epenesa to replenish the edge.

21. Philadelphia Eagles
Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU
Only the Ravens had fewer receiving yards from their wide receiver corps than the Eagles, and Greg Ward Jr. was the No. 1 option at the end of the 2019 season after injuries downed Philadelphia's top three outside weapons. Alshon Jeffery isn't getting any younger, and Nelson Agholor is a pending free agent. The Eagles' 27-year-old quarterback Carson Wentz is in his prime and has no one to throw to outside the numbers. Jefferson posted 1,540 yards and 18 touchdowns last season, looked great at the combine and has a high-end ability to find pockets in coverage and generate separation.

 

[Skooby]

22. Buffalo Bills
Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson
Let's find Josh Allen a receiver to pair with John Brown. I thought about Brandon Aiyuk (Arizona State), but his game is very similar to Brown's. What the Bills want instead is a big, strong receiver who can make tough contested catches and create matchup problems in the red zone. Enter Higgins, with his 6-4, 216-pound frame. He will come down with any ball thrown his way and then make defenders miss with his strength. The Bills also will be looking for offensive linemen, but the value isn't right at No. 22. And while they could also use a running back to pair with Devin Singletary, that's a position that can be addressed on Day 2.

23. New England Patriots
A.J. Epenesa, DE, Iowa

The Patriots recorded 47 sacks last season, so pass rush isn't any form of weakness in Foxborough. But Epenesa is a perfect fit as a 3-4 defensive end replacement for Trey Flowers one year after Flowers signed with Detroit. He plays right around 280 pounds and with power, making up for a lack of explosiveness (he ran a 5.04-second 40 at the combine). Epenesa finished his final Iowa season with eight sacks in five games, but his ability to set the edge against the run shouldn't be discounted. While the Patriots might need an interior offensive lineman or safety, with Joe Thuney and Devin McCourty set to be free agents, the value isn't as strong at No. 23. And don't expect coach Bill Belichick to draft a receiver in the first round in back-to-back years despite a desire to upgrade there, too.

24. New Orleans Saints
Brandon Aiyuk, WR, Arizona State

Part of the reason Michael Thomas caught 147 balls and had 28 more targets than anyone else in the NFL in 2019 is he is ridiculously talented at football. The other reason? The Saints have long needed a quality No. 2 wideout option. Aiyuk averaged 18.3 yards after the catch last season at Arizona State, and his strong combine workout showcased the kind of explosion he'd bring to the table for Drew Brees and New Orleans. As an added bonus, Aiyuk has plenty of versatility in where he lines up and can also return kicks.

25. Minnesota Vikings
Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama

Diggs is ultraversatile and has really good closing burst. And since he grew up playing wide receiver like his brother Stefon -- a future teammate in Minnesota in this scenario -- Diggs has excellent ball skills as well. Trae Waynes, Mackensie Alexander and Marcus Sherels are all free agents, and 29-year-old Xavier Rhodes struggled all season. The Vikings had 17 interceptions last season, tied for the third most in the NFL, and coach Mike Zimmer isn't afraid to draft a Day 1 cornerback (two since 2015) to keep that secondary strong amid potential losses.

26. Miami Dolphins (from HOU)
Josh Jones, OT, Houston

These guys again? Having three first-round picks allows a rebuilding team to work on multiple areas. So with Tagovailoa tagged as the quarterback of the future and Henderson helping out the defense, the Dolphins can bring in the big 6-5, 319-pound Jones to shore up an offensive line that tied for the most sacks allowed last season (58). That's not the kind of number you want to see if you're about to hand over the reins at QB to an oft-injured player coming off a devastating hip injury -- especially one you just invested a top-five pick in. Jones is tough to beat in pass protection and is very athletic for his size.

27. Seattle Seahawks
Yetur Gross-Matos, DE, Penn State

Jadeveon Clowney might not return after his season under the franchise tag, and Ziggy Ansah is a free agent after barely playing in 2019. Seattle really needs to add an edge rusher -- 2019 first-rounder L.J. Collier was disappointing in Year 1 -- especially as it deals with other free-agency concerns within the front seven (Jarran Reed, Al Woods, Quinton Jefferson and Mychal Kendricks are headed toward the open market). The Seahawks tied for second-fewest sacks in the NFL (28) last year, but Gross-Matos is an above-average pass-rusher who had 9.5 sacks last season with the Nittany Lions. He might need a little time to develop and refine his game, but he has a chance to be a problem for opponents when turned loose.

28. Baltimore Ravens
Patrick Queen, ILB, LSU

Either Queen or Oklahoma's Kenneth Murray make sense for the Ravens here, but I give the slight edge to Queen at the moment. He has 4.50 speed and posted 85 tackles, including 12.5 for loss, last season with the national champion Tigers. A playmaking linebacker in the middle of the defense could take the unit to a whole other level in 2020 -- Baltimore never really replaced C.J. Mosley in that role. Josh Bynes and Patrick Onwuasor are both free agents, so landing Queen at No. 28 would be a perfect marriage of talent, value and need for a Baltimore team that will again be contending for the Super Bowl.

29. Tennessee Titans
Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

The Titans' offensive line allowed 56 sacks (third most in the NFL) in 2019, and now Jack Conklin is looking as if he won't be back. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill was a revelation for the Titans last season, but Tennessee can improve the protection around him. Sure, Tennessee has other issues to consider: Running back (Ohio State's J.K. Dobbins), linebacker (Murray), cornerback (Auburn's Noah Igbinoghene) and tight end (Kmet) could all be positions to watch depending on what happens with this month's free-agency period. But it also has no choice but to do something about the line. Thomas is a powerful tackle with natural ability, and if developed properly, he could go a long way toward cleaning up the team's pass protection.

30. Green Bay Packers
KJ Hamler, WR, Penn State

So we're doing this again? Still screaming for the Packers to find Aaron Rodgers some help? You bet. I did so a year ago too, but when they opted to take two defensive players with their two Round 1 picks, I couldn't criticize the moves too much because of who was still on the board and the high-end talent of the two guys they did take (Rashan Gary and Darnell Savage). But now, Green Bay can't kick this problem down the road anymore. It needs someone opposite Davante Adams. And while Hamler didn't work out at the combine, he has some serious wheels. A burner like him in an offense with Rodgers, Adams and Aaron Jones would be a lot of fun to watch.

31. San Francisco 49ers
Grant Delpit, S, LSU

Jimmie Ward is due for free agency, and while Delpit didn't litter the box scores in Death Valley last season, he does have size, speed, instincts and ball skills at safety. To get back to the Super Bowl, coach Kyle Shanahan needs to keep his strength -- the defense -- a strength and continue adding valuable pieces to it. Delpit is effective as an overhang, playing a little closer to the line of scrimmage, and he'd be an asset for the Niners. Other directions might include cornerback depth (Igbinoghene would work here) or wide receiver.

32. Kansas City Chiefs
Justin Madubuike, DT, Texas A&M

Yet another possible landing spot for Igbinoghene or even LSU's Kristian Fulton, Kansas City again needs some cornerback help. But even with the Chiefs placing the franchise tag on Chris Jones, they could still move him (as they did last year with Dee Ford). Consider Madubuike insurance right now in case they suddenly have a hole in the middle of that line. We will know much more about the team's plan at defensive tackle when we hit April, but for now, I'm taking an athletic interior guy who had 11.5 tackles for loss last season and then ran a smoking 4.83 in the 40-yard dash at 293 pounds at the combine.

 

[Da_Eggman]

Kiley McDaniel's top 100 prospects for 2020

 

[Skooby]

Kiley McDaniel's top 100 prospects for 2020

Convert PDF to HTML Online Free.

 

[954UAlreadyknow]

Kiper's new 2020 NFL Mock Draft: Four QBs, seven WRs and a few surprises

@Skooby

 

[Skooby]

Kiper's new 2020 NFL Mock Draft: Four QBs, seven WRs and a few surprises

@Skooby

1. Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

Andy Dalton is still on the Bengals' roster -- there aren't many teams left on the quarterback carousel that make sense as a trade partner -- but this is a no-brainer: Take Burrow and build your team around the Heisman-winning quarterback. Cincinnati already has a WR1 in A.J. Green and RB1 in Joe Mixon, and there are a few solid offensive pieces elsewhere, including the impending debut of 2019 first-round pick Jonah Williams, who missed all of last season with a shoulder injury but can step in immediately and protect Burrow's blind side.

2. Washington Redskins
Chase Young, DE, Ohio State

If Washington is serious about Dwayne Haskins as its unquestioned starter at quarterback, it has to take Young, the clear top pass-rusher in this class and one of the best edge-rushing prospects of the past decade. Ron Rivera already has some talented defenders with whom to work (including Jonathan Allen, Montez Sweat, Landon Collins and free-agent signing Kendall Fuller) and Young could top 10 sacks as a rookie. The big question for the Redskins: Can they get back a decent pick in a Trent Williams trade? He wants out, and they don't have a second-round pick after moving up for Sweat last year.

3. Detroit Lions

Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State

The Lions' best-case scenario with this pick? Field offers for teams trying to trade up to draft Tua Tagovailoa -- the Dolphins (Nos. 5, 18 and 26 picks) and Chargers (No. 6 pick) make the most sense -- and still land Okudah. That would give them extra premium draft picks and the top corner in the class to replace Darius Slay and pair with free-agent signing Desmond Trufant. After a 3-12-1 season, general manager Bob Quinn and coach Matt Patricia need wins now, and the additions of Jamie Collins, Danny Shelton and Nick Williams will help their defense immediately.

4. New York Giants
Isaiah Simmons, OLB, Clemson

This is another spot to watch for a trade. If the Lions stay put and take Okudah, could a team jump in front of the Dolphins to snag Tagovailoa? Because I can't project trades here, I'll mock Simmons to the Giants. He's a phenomenal athlete who ran a 4.39 40-yard dash at 238 pounds and has great film from the past two seasons. He and free-agent addition Blake Martinez would really strengthen the G-Men's linebacker unit. General manager Dave Gettleman has to think about an offensive tackle here, too, with Mekhi Becton, Tristan Wirfs or Jedrick Wills Jr. as possibilities.

5. Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama



The Dolphins have three first-round picks and two second-round picks, but their best-case scenario is to stay put, get their quarterback of the future and pick up starters on Day 1 and Day 2 of the draft. With the offseason quarterback carousel mostly completed -- Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton and Cam Newton still need to find new teams -- Miami is in the best spot to draft its guy. Tagovailoa, who's rehabbing after dislocating his right hip and suffering a posterior wall fracture in November, was planning to throw for NFL teams on April 9, but that's up in the air. There's a chance teams won't get to see him go through a full workout; they'll have to trust his tape -- and trust their medical staffs, who will have a clear view of where Tagovailoa is with his injury now.

6. Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon



The Chargers appear uninterested in the quarterbacks in the free-agent or trade market, with Tyrod Taylor slotted in as their Week 1 starter. But maybe they're not interested in another veteran because they know they're in a good position to draft Tagovailoa or Herbert, and they can give Taylor the job while grooming a quarterback of the future. Based on their offseason additions (guard Trai Turner, offensive tackle Bryan Bulaga, defensive tackle Linval Joseph and cornerback Chris Harris Jr., among others), the Chargers think they can win now. Drafting the 6-foot-6 Herbert gives them the best chance to bridge their present with their future, similar to what the Chiefs did in 2017 when they drafted Patrick Mahomes.

7. Carolina Panthers
Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn



This makes three mock drafts, three projections of Brown to Carolina. And I don't see a reason to go away from it (unless Isaiah Simmons falls here). With Gerald McCoy and Vernon Butler gone in free agency, there's a gaping hole at the tackle spot next to Kawann Short. Brown isn't going to be a 10-sack-per-season guy, but he has some pass-rush upside from the interior. And with a 6-foot-4, 326-pound frame, he'll be a monster against the run.

8. Arizona Cardinals
Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa



With DeAndre Hopkins on his way to Arizona, the Cardinals filled their need for a new No. 1 wide receiver. One spot they haven't addressed? Right tackle, where they could upgrade on former undrafted free agent Justin Murray, who started 12 games last season. This team could have its pick of a deep top tier of tackles, but I like the fit with Wirfs, who was predominantly a right tackle in college. He's a load in the run game and has great feet in pass protection. Arizona must protect quarterback Kyler Murray, who was sacked 48 times last season, tied for most in the league.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars
Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina



Marcell Dareus and Calais Campbell are gone, while 2018 first-round pick Taven Bryan has disappointed, which means the Jaguars' once-excellent defensive line needs reinforcements. They have tremendous edge rushers in Yannick Ngakoue and Josh Allen, but Kinlaw would give them a 324-pound run-stuffer with some upside as an interior pass-rusher. I considered a quarterback here, but it appears Jacksonville is committed to Gardner Minshew. Cornerback is an option, too, though Jacksonville could use the No. 20 pick to address the secondary.

10. Cleveland Browns
Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville



I really liked Cleveland paying up in free agency for Jack Conklin, who will upgrade the right tackle spot. But this team could still use a new starter at left tackle, which is why I like Becton here. A mountain of a man at 6-foot-7, 364 pounds, Becton also has excellent feet and agility -- he is the heaviest player to run a sub-5.2 40-yard dash at the combine since 2006. Chris Hubbard, signed in 2018 to replace Joe Thomas, hasn't worked out; it's time to get Baker Mayfield better protection.

 

[Skooby]

11. New York Jets
Jedrick Wills Jr., OT, Alabama



The Jets made an effort to fix their porous offensive line in free agency, bringing back guard Alex Lewis and adding tackle George Fant and interior linemen Connor McGovern, Greg Van Roten and Josh Andrews. But that's not enough. They need another infusion of talent, particularly at right tackle, where Chuma Edoga played last season. Wills was a two-year starter at right tackle for the Crimson Tide, and he could step in on day one and be New York's most talented lineman. Wide receiver is a position to watch here, with Robby Anderson signing in Carolina. I also thought about pass-rusher, but this is a little too high for second-ranked edge rusher K'Lavon Chaisson.

12. Las Vegas Raiders
CJ Henderson, CB, Florida

After the Raiders signed both Cory Littleton and Nick Kwiatkowski in free agency, you can scratch off-ball linebacker from their list of needs. That still leaves wide receiver and cornerback, though. And since Las Vegas has two first-round picks and this class of receivers is much deeper at the top than the cornerback group, let's give Jon Gruden & Co. a potential No. 1 corner in Henderson here. He had an up-and-down 2019 season, but he cemented his standing as the second-ranked cornerback in this class at the combine, where he ran a 4.39 40. The Raiders get to grab a receiver at No. 19. Could Vegas be an option if one of the other quarterbacks -- Justin Herbert or Jordan Love -- make it here?

13. San Francisco 49ers (from IND)
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama



This pick now belongs to the 49ers, after the Colts traded it to acquire interior disruptor DeForest Buckner. San Francisco could use the pick for a straight replacement for Buckner at defensive tackle -- if Javon Kinlaw drops out of the top 10, he could do damage in the middle of its defense -- but I see wide receiver as a higher priority, particularly after Emmanuel Sanders walked in free agency. Adding Jeudy, who caught 77 passes for 1,163 yards and 10 TDs last season, to a group with Deebo Samuel and Kendrick Bourne makes this a really exciting (and young) trio of wideouts for Jimmy Garoppolo. The 49ers are also trade-down candidates -- after the No. 31 overall pick, they don't pick again until Round 5.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia



After the Bucs largely bypassed free agency to address their offensive line -- they did add swing tackle Joe Haeg -- this is the spot in which they need to get help protecting Tom Brady. (It felt strange to type that.) With Demar Dotson still a free agent, the right tackle spot is wide open. Thomas played both left and right tackle for the Bulldogs, and he would help keep Brady's jersey clean. I also thought about a running back to help Brady, with D'Andre Swift a great option to catch a bunch of passes from the future Hall of Famer. But offensive tackle feels like a lock at this point.

15. Denver Broncos
Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama



The Broncos have made a few solid additions this offseason, signing guard Graham Glasgow and running back Melvin Gordon and trading for defensive tackle Jurrell Casey and cornerback A.J. Bouye. They haven't addressed left tackle -- former first-round pick Garett Bolles could be on his way out after a disappointing tenure -- or wide receiver, where they have Courtland Sutton but not much else. Ruggs, who ran a 4.27 40 at the combine, would be a great complement to Sutton's size, as he could run crossers and catch deep balls from second-year signal-caller Drew Lock.

16. Atlanta Falcons
K'Lavon Chaisson, OLB, LSU



The Falcons replaced Vic Beasley Jr. with Dante Fowler Jr. in free agency, but they shouldn't stop there. General manager Thomas Dimitroff needs to add another premium pass-rusher, either at edge or along the interior. Takkarist McKinley, a first-round pick in 2017, just hasn't developed. After fighting through injuries, Chaisson had just 9.5 sacks in his college career, but he has a high ceiling, flashing elite get-off at the snap with a few pass-rushing moves in his arsenal. Before Atlanta picked up Todd Gurley to replace Devonta Freeman, I thought this might be a spot to watch for a running back.

17. Dallas Cowboys
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma



The Cowboys don't have many glaring needs, although I wouldn't be surprised to see them draft a cornerback or safety (Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix appears to be a one-year flier). I'm going to stick to my board, though, and go with the best prospect available. Lamb, No. 12 in my latest rankings, shouldn't fall far; with fantastic route-running ability and big-play potential, he's capable of being a No. 1 receiver at the next level, and he could play outside or in the slot. Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and Lamb would instantly become one of the NFL's top wide receiver trios. Keep an eye on defensive end here, though, as Dallas could add young talent to that group.

18. Miami Dolphins (from PIT)
D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia



The Dolphins entered free agency with the NFL's most cap space, and they used a bunch of their money on defense, signing cornerback Byron Jones to a record-breaking deal while also adding linebackers Kyle Van Noy, Shaq Lawson and Elandon Roberts and edge rusher Emmanuel Ogbah. And yes, they brought in veteran running back Jordan Howard, too, but it was a low-cost deal. Let's give Tagovailoa and the offense some help with Swift, a threat as a runner and receiver and the clear top back in this class. I expect Miami to address offensive tackle with one of its three first-round picks, and that could come at No. 26.

19. Las Vegas Raiders (from CHI)
Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson



If the Raiders take a cornerback at No. 12, they have to address receiver here. They can't go into the season with Tyrell Williams, Hunter Renfrow and Nelson Agholor as Derek Carr's top wideouts. So how about Renfrow's college teammate, Higgins, a 6-foot-3 pass-catcher with elite ball skills. Higgins isn't a speedster -- he didn't work out at the combine, but he ran a 4.54 40 at his pro day -- but he could be an instant red zone threat for Carr.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR)
Antoine Winfield Jr., S/CB, Minnesota



Where could Winfield play? How about ... everywhere. He has the versatility to play deep safety, nickel corner, strong safety and even some linebacker. At 5-foot-9, 203 pounds, he's not the biggest guy, but you couldn't tell from his tackling on tape -- he's not afraid to hit a ball carrier. Winfield stayed healthy in 2019 and had seven interceptions. He's a ballhawk, which is something Jacksonville could use after it traded Jalen Ramsey last year. I really like Winfield, and this is a great landing spot for the best defensive back left on my board.

 

[Skooby]

21. Philadelphia Eagles
Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU



Philadelphia addressed its hole at cornerback by trading for Darius Slay. The next hole that needs to be filled is at wide receiver, where Alshon Jeffery and DeSean Jackson had injury-plagued 2019 seasons and rookie second-round pick J.J. Arcega-Whiteside struggled. That resulted in a tough year for Carson Wentz and the Eagles' offense, although they still went 9-7 and won the NFC East. Since this is a deep class of wide receivers, the Eagles should come out of the first round with their guy. Jefferson, who caught 111 passes from Joe Burrow last season, is a great fit.

22. Minnesota Vikings (from BUF)
Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor



Yes, this is another team that has a need at wide receiver, and this is the draft to get one. Minnesota got this pick by trading Stefon Diggs last week, and the Vikings could use it to find a direct replacement. Adam Thielen is the clear WR1, but there's not much else on the roster that should excite Vikings fans. Mims is one of the biggest risers from the pre-draft process, as he was tremendous at the Senior Bowl and then blew up at the combine, running a 4.38 40 at 6-foot-3, 207 pounds and testing well in the other workouts. He had 28 touchdowns over the past three seasons at Baylor.

23. New England Patriots
Jordan Love, QB, Utah State



Are the Patriots really going to roll with Jarrett Stidham, Brian Hoyer and Cody Kessler as their 2020 quarterbacks? I'm not buying it. I'll stick with a QB here, although I'm moving Love back into the fourth spot in my QB rankings, ahead of Jacob Eason. At 6-foot-4, Love has all the traits that teams look for in a starter, but his 2019 stats -- 20 TD passses, 17 INTs -- will scare off some. I don't put much stock in it because of all of the talent (and an entire coaching staff) that he lost from the 2018 season, when he had 32 TD passes and six INTs. It's tough to know whether Bill Belichick is going to treat the season as a rebuild, but taking Love makes sense either way.

24. New Orleans Saints
Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma



The Saints perpetually have salary-cap issues, but they have done a nice job filling holes this offseason, adding safety Malcolm Jenkins and wide receiver Emmanuel Sanders while bringing back guard Andrus Peat and defensive tackle David Onyemata. This is a roster that should compete for a Super Bowl in 2020. Off-ball linebacker, though, is a position where New Orleans could get some help, and neither of my top inside linebackers have come off the board yet. Murray, a stellar athlete and tackling machine, is a good value pick here.

25. Minnesota Vikings
A.J. Epenesa, DE, Iowa



This has to be corner or defensive end, right? Free agent Everson Griffen has already said his goodbyes to Vikings fans, while Trae Waynes, Mackensie Alexander and Xavier Rhodes all departed this offseason. We know Mike Zimmer is always thinking about his defense, and that unit could use some help with one of Minnesota's first-round picks. Epenesa could be a capable replacement for Griffen as a defensive end with a big frame (6-foot-5, 275 pounds) who is good against the run and has room to grow as a pass-rusher.

26. Miami Dolphins (from HOU)
Josh Jones, OT, Houston

So we've given the Dolphins a quarterback and running back so far, and let's stay on offense and address the tackle position, where Miami is still depleted. With Jones on the board, this is a no-brainer for me. He made 45 career starts at left tackle for the Cougars, and he dominated during practices at the Senior Bowl. Remember that the Dolphins still have two more second-round picks to help them get back on track. And after boosting their defense in free agency, the Dolphins are trending in the right direction.

27. Seattle Seahawks
Yetur Gross-Matos, DE, Penn State



This is a tough one for me because the Seahawks are still in the hunt to re-sign Jadeveon Clowney. If they spend a bunch of money to bring Clowney back, they might not want to spend the capital on an edge rusher here, particularly after drafting L.J. Collier in Round 1 last year. Still, the 6-foot-6, 266-pound Gross-Matos makes a lot of sense, because we know that Pete Carroll likes big defensive ends who could move inside and rush the passer on passing downs. Offensive tackle should be an option here, and Seattle also has an extra second-round pick.

28. Baltimore Ravens
Patrick Queen, ILB, LSU



The Ravens didn't really address the inside linebacker position in free agency, which means I don't see a reason to change from my first two mock drafts. Queen fills a direct void as a replacement for C.J. Mosley, who Baltimore lost in free agency a year ago. I also considered center/guard Cesar Ruiz, who could take over for the retired Marshal Yanda at guard.

29. Tennessee Titans
Ezra Cleveland, OT, Boise State



After Cleveland's excellent combine performance in which he ran a 4.93 40 (third-fastest among offensive linemen) and looked great in the agility drills, I went back to the tape to study him. And what I saw was a left tackle who I was underrating. A three-year starter for the Broncos, Cleveland isn't just a workout wonder -- he was a great tackle in the Mountain West. The Titans are set at left tackle with Taylor Lewan, of course, but with right tackle Jack Conklin departing in free agency, Cleveland could compete with former swing tackle Dennis Kelly, who was re-signed. Tennessee added Vic Beasley Jr. last week, but I wouldn't be shocked to see them add another edge rusher here.

30. Green Bay Packers
Chase Claypool, WR, Notre Dame



Green Bay cut Jimmy Graham and hasn't added any receiving help this offseason, so I'm sticking with a wide receiver for its pick, though it's the third different wideout in my three mock drafts. Like Denzel Mims, Claypool had an electrifying combine, running a 4.42 40 and putting up a 40.5-inch vertical at 6-foot-4, 238 pounds. This might be a slight reach, but a team could fall in love with his traits, and he produced last season, catching 66 passes for 1,037 yards and 13 touchdowns. He could be a matchup nightmare for Aaron Rodgers.

 

[Skooby]

31. San Francisco 49ers
Noah Igbinoghene, CB, Auburn

If the 49ers can get a wide receiver with their first pick, they could turn to the defense with this pick. With DeForest Buckner gone, I thought about defensive tackle, but they still have some talent there with former top-five pick Solomon Thomas moving inside permanently. Justin Madubuike could be an option. But corner is a more pressing need, and you only have to watch Super Bowl LIV to see that. Richard Sherman, who turns 32 later this month, is only signed through 2020, and the Niners don't have a set No. 2 corner. Igbinoghene, a track athlete who is still raw, is my third-ranked corner, and he could also help as a return man.

32. Kansas City Chiefs
Cesar Ruiz, C/G, Michigan

The Super Bowl champs haven't made many moves this offseason, but their positions of need are clear: cornerback and interior offensive line. Kendall Fuller signed a big deal in Washington, and Bashaud Breeland is still on the market, leaving big shoes to fill. But with Noah Igbinoghene gone to San Francisco one pick earlier, I don't have a corner with a first-round grade on my board. So let's give the Chiefs Ruiz, who could slide to guard to replace Stefen Wisniewski.

 

[Da_Eggman]

NFL experts debate: Picking the best bargain signing of free agency

 

[Skooby]

NFL experts debate: Picking the best bargain signing of free agency

2020 free agency: NFL experts debate most improved teams, best signings, more

Two star receivers were traded. A six-time Super Bowl champion quarterback is set to wear a new uniform for the first time in his career. And plenty of high-impact playmakers on both sides of the ball will suit up in new cities in 2020. It was a wild first week of NFL free agency, and there are even a few big names still out there on the market.

Tying the dozens of signings together as the dust starts to settle, our panel of NFL experts returns to answer several questions this week. Let's jump in.

What has been the best bargain deal of free agency so far?
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: The Saints signing Emmanuel Sanders. At two years, $16 million, the Saints add a proven No. 2 wide receiver opposite Michael Thomas. Sanders is a detailed route runner who can separate from man defenders while finding open windows in zone coverage. That's a fit for quarterback Drew Brees in Sean Payton's system.

Mike Clay, fantasy writer: The Chargers signing Chris Harris Jr. Harris has been one of the league's best slot corners over the past decade and displayed his versatility by showing well on the perimeter during the 2019 season. He's now 31 years old, but it doesn't appear he has lost a step, so landing him for $11.5 million guaranteed over two seasons is quite the value. The Chargers now have the league's best cornerback trio.

Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: The Seahawks re-signing Jarran Reed. Reed would have been too pricey to retain a year ago, after a double-digit-sack season. But a suspension and a drop in production in 2019 helped Seattle swoop in for the late re-sign at a reasonable two years and $23 million. If he recaptures his 2018 form, this is a major bargain.



Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: The Falcons signing Todd Gurley II. We know the issues with Gurley and why the Rams cut him. His contract was too big. His health is suspect. But he's still an impact player when he has the ball in his hands, and $6 million is a steal if he ends up healthy for even, say, 12 games.

Mina Kimes, NFL writer: The Chargers signing Bryan Bulaga. While the former Packers offensive tackle has battled injuries at various points in his career, he's incredibly polished and experienced, and signed for basically the same amount of money (three years, $30 million) as George Fant.

Jason Reid, senior writer, The Undefeated: The Saints signing Sanders. Sanders agreed to a two-year, $16 million deal (it could become as much as $19 million) to be the team's No. 2 wideout behind Thomas. Sanders is outstanding working from the slot and a strong route runner. This move was great for both Brees and everyone involved in managing the Saints' cap.

Aaron Schatz, editor of Football Outsiders: The Chargers signing Bulaga. That three-year, $30 million contract looks like a bargain considering that the Jets signed Fant, who has never started for a full season, at three years and $27.3 million.

Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: The Steelers signing Eric Ebron. Ebron has made huge plays and flubbed a maddening number of others in his career. But the risk is low for the Steelers, at just two years, $12 million, especially compared to the deal the Browns gave tight end Austin Hooper.

Devin McCourty. I'm always a fan of investing (two years, $23 million) in your own players, particularly one who is as indispensable as any other on the defensive side of the ball (certainly along with cornerback Stephon Gilmore). McCourty is one of the best players in football and an indispensable cog for the Patriots' defense.

What has been the biggest head-scratching move (outside of the Texans' trading of DeAndre Hopkins)?
Bowen: The Bears signing Jimmy Graham. Even with an obvious need at the position, Chicago GM Ryan Pace's decision to give the 33-year-old Graham a two-year deal for $16 million -- with $9 million paid out in the first season -- doesn't add up here. At this stage of his career, Graham isn't a dynamic threat in the passing game due to his declining play speed, and he will need to be schemed open to produce in coach Matt Nagy's offense.

Clay: The Bears trading for Nick Foles. The Bears have made a few head-scratching moves, but perhaps the biggest was trading for Foles (one of 2019's worst free-agent signings) as competition for Mitchell Trubisky. The move all but puts Chicago into quarterback purgatory for the near future and places any chances of a playoff run in serious jeopardy.

Fowler: The Lions signing Halapoulivaati Vaitai. The former Eagles offensive tackle did a nice job in spot duty last season, but $45 million over five years is too rich for a player with 20 starts in four seasons. Jack Conklin wasn't much more expensive than that, signing with Cleveland for $42 million over three years. The Lions are spending more than $130 million this free-agency cycle, and it's still uncertain how all the pieces will fit.

Graziano: I'm still wondering how the Jaguars couldn't get more than a fifth-round pick for Calais Campbell. I get that they had to move him for money reasons, and that he's no spring chicken. But in a market where most of the top pass-rushers got franchise-tagged, I would have expected a productive player and leader like Campbell to bring more back.

Kimes: The Jets signing George Fant. I was surprised by how few bad deals were signed, but the Jets' three-year, $30 million deal with Fant, who was essentially a backup offensive tackle in Seattle (as well as a tight end), was puzzling. Even though just $13.7 million of Fant's salary is guaranteed, it seems risky to bet on him protecting Sam Darnold as a starter.

Reid: The Bears taking on Foles' contract. Look, I get that Foles, a former Super Bowl MVP, was a fabulous backup for the Eagles. And I also get that the Bears need someone to challenge Trubisky for the No. 1 job. But they had to take on, to put it kindly, the highly questionable contract that the Jaguars gave Foles. Combined with the signing of Graham, the Bears made two huge head-scratchers.


Schatz: The Bears signing Graham. Foles brings a worse and much more expensive contract, but that move was more predictable than Chicago going out immediately after free agency started and signing a very average, clearly over-the-hill tight end. Graham has been below average in Football Outsiders' receiving DVOA for three straight seasons. And does this mean the Bears have given up on the idea of Trey Burton as their big tight end weapon?

Seifert: The Patriots letting Tom Brady depart. This decision was years in the making, and it was as much Brady's as it was the Patriots'. But it was the result of institutional stubbornness. Why did the Patriots create an environment that the best player in NFL history, still playing at a pretty good level, wanted to leave?

Yates: The Bengals spending big in free agency. To be clear, I admire what they are doing.
D.J. Reader is a great player, and the secondary is unquestionably better with Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander. I'm just so accustomed to the Bengals being spectators during free agency that these moves caught me off guard.

 

[Skooby]

What has been the best offseason addition?
Bowen: The Buccaneers signing Tom Brady. With the pass-game weapons already in place at wide receiver and tight end, signing Brady elevates the entire Bucs offense. And Tampa Bay can continue to build this system around Brady with scheme-specific talent by drafting a Day 2 running back with pass-catching traits.

Clay: The Cardinals trading for DeAndre Hopkins. I talked up Brady earlier this week, so I'll go with Hopkins here because A) Steve Keim and Kliff Kingsbury adamantly expressed a need for a perimeter, vertical receiver at the combine, and B) Arizona got such an incredibly good deal, which included getting backup running back David Johnson off the books. Supplying second-year quarterback Kyler Murray with a go-to weapon is huge for his development and figures to lead to a breakout 2020 for the Arizona offense.

Fowler: The Colts signing Philip Rivers. Everything makes sense about this pairing, from the familiarity between Rivers and coach Frank Reich to the modest money (one year, $25 million) to a team taking a chance because it knows it's close. The Colts are smart to think Rivers might return to 2018 form behind one of the game's best offensive lines.

Graziano: The Buccaneers signing Brady. Steadier quarterback play makes a huge difference in an offense with as many high-end targets as Tampa Bay's unit has, and Brady immediately elevates the Bucs from one of the league's most invisible teams to one of its most interesting. The impact on ticket sales alone is worth the signing.

Kimes: The Cardinals trading for Hopkins. He's a Hall of Fame-caliber receiver, and the Cardinals were able to procure his services at a ridiculously low cost. Even if they give him the big extension he apparently desires, it's still an incredibly good move and a godsend for Murray's development.

Reid: The Buccaneers signing Brady. The most successful quarterback in NFL history is just the right guy to end Tampa Bay's playoff drought at 12 seasons. Unlike last season with New England, Brady will have weapons on the outside with his new team. He'll make good use of them.

Schatz: The Colts signing Rivers. I think the upgrade from Jacoby Brissett to Rivers might be bigger than the upgrade from Jameis Winston to Brady. The Colts' offensive line will give Rivers time to stay upright and work down the field -- protection that's particularly important for an older and less mobile quarterback.

 

[Da_Eggman]

NFL draft QB projections: Why Jordan Love is risky

 

[Skooby]

NFL draft QB projections: Why Jordan Love is risky

2020 NFL draft QB projections: Why Jordan Love is risky

There's no risk in the NFL quite like the risk of drafting a quarterback. No defense revolves around a single player the way every offense revolves around the quarterback. Trust your offense to the wrong young quarterback, and your team isn't going to climb back into playoff contention. Quarterbacks get drafted earlier than players who rank similarly at their respective positions. And while quarterbacks have more statistics measuring them than other players do, teams haven't been more accurate in drafting them. Just ask the Chicago Bears, who selected Mitchell Trubisky before Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes three years ago.

The lessons of history can at least help us figure out how much of a risk each quarterback prospect will be. That's the point of Football Outsiders' quarterback-adjusted stats and experience (QBASE) projection system. It looks at college performance, experience, and expected draft position (to incorporate scouting information that college stats will miss). To allow some time for development, QBASE projects a quarterback's efficiency (passing only) in Years 3-5 of his career according to Football Outsiders' defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) metric. A total of 50,000 simulations produces a range of potential outcomes for each prospect, with players drafted later generally having a larger range of possibilities.

You'll notice that every listed quarterback prospect has a chance to be elite, and every quarterback has a chance to be a bust. That reflects just how much we don't know about drafting quarterbacks, and the wide range of possible outcomes for each player.

QBASE favors quarterbacks expected to go high in the draft who also have a relatively long résumé of college success, according to the stats. Those stats include completion percentage, adjusted yards per attempt (adjusted for touchdowns and interceptions), and team passing efficiency (measured with Bill Connelly's passing SP+ stats). These numbers are adjusted both for the quality of the defenses that a prospect had to face as well as the quality of his offensive teammates. QBASE is meant to be used only on players chosen in the top 100 picks; after that, the judgment of scouts becomes even more important, and statistics become even less predictive.

Overall, QBASE thinks this is a good year for moderately promising quarterback prospects. None of this year's quarterbacks comes close to the top projections in QBASE history, in part because no top quarterback prospect this year has four full seasons as a college starter.

However, this is the first year with three prospects with mean projections over 600 DYAR since 2012 (Andrew Luck, Robert Griffin and Russell Wilson) and the first year with five prospects with mean projections over 400 DYAR since 2006. Then again, those five quarterbacks in 2006 were Matt Leinart, Jay Cutler, Kellen Clemens, Vince Young and Tarvaris Jackson -- once again demonstrating that projecting quarterbacks is very difficult.

Here are projections for eight quarterbacks who might go in the top 100 picks of the 2020 NFL draft.

Joe Burrow, LSU Tigers
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 2
Mean projection in Years 3-5: 759 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 42%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 27%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 18%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 13%

Joe Burrow's 2019 season was among the greatest in college football history. He set a record with 60 touchdown passes. His completion rate of 76.3% was the second highest ever. His 12.5 adjusted passing yards per attempt ranked fourth. He did this against an above-average schedule in the SEC.

Burrow's forecast takes a small hit from playing alongside a very high amount of draftable talent, highlighted by likely first-round picks Justin Jefferson (this year) and Ja'Marr Chase (next year). But the experience variable is the main reason Burrow's QBASE projection is not higher. The system still identifies the risk that comes with drafting a quarterback with only two years of starting experience. Nonetheless, Burrow has the second-highest projection ever for a quarterback with less than three years of starting experience.

Top QBASE projections for one-year and two-year starters, from 1997 to 2020:

1. Alex Smith (2005): 798
2. Joe Burrow (2020): 759
3. Cam Newton (2011): 698
4. Tua Tagovailoa (2020): 653
5. Kyler Murray (2019): 595
6. JaMarcus Russell (2007): 570
7. Sam Bradford (2010): 545
8. Vince Young (2006): 536
9. Dwayne Haskins (2019): 527
10. Tim Couch (1999): 474

Tua Tagovailoa, Alabama Crimson Tide
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 7
Mean projection in Years 3-5: 653 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 46%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 27%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 19%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 8%

As a sophomore, Tagovailoa had 12.8 adjusted passing yards per attempt, the third-highest number ever. As a junior, Tagovailoa had 13.4 adjusted passing yards per attempt before he injured his hip. That would be the highest number ever if Tagovailoa had not missed time and failed to qualify for College Football Reference's historical rankings. So the elements of QBASE based on past performance like Tagovailoa an awful lot.

On the other hand, QBASE has a variable to discount quarterbacks whose stats are helped by playing with a lot of draftable talent at the wide receiver and offensive line positions. And in the history of QBASE, which goes back to 1997, no quarterback played with more talent in his final college season than Tagovailoa in 2019.

Three different Alabama teammates are forecast to be top-20 picks in the upcoming draft: tackle Jedrick Wills Jr. and wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and Henry Ruggs III. Two more of Tagovailoa's offensive teammates are likely to be top-10 picks in next year's draft: tackle Alex Leatherwood and wide receiver Jaylen Waddle. Receiver DeVonta Smith and guard Deonte Brown are also likely to be drafted in 2021. As a result, the projected draft value for Tagovailoa's teammates is over 60% higher than the previous quarterback who played with the most draftable talent, Danny Wuerffel in 1997.

(Burrow is also in the top five for teammate value, along with Johnny Manziel and Matt Leinart.)

Tagovailoa's schedule also wasn't as hard as you might expect for the SEC; due to his injury, he missed Auburn (fifth in SP+ defense) and the bowl game with Michigan (11th).

These elements drop Tagovailoa only a little bit, however. So he still has one of the all-time best QBASE projections for a quarterback with only two years of starting experience.

Jordan Love, Utah State Aggies
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 22
Mean projection in Years 3-5: 57 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 64%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 23%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 10%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 2%

Scouts are high on Love's arm talent and smooth release, but his final year of college was quite unimpressive. Thanks in part to 17 interceptions with only 20 touchdowns, his already mediocre 7.2 yards per attempt number becomes 6.4 adjusted yards per attempt. Over the past decade, the only top-100 pick with a lower adjusted yards per attempt in his final college season was C.J. Beathard. Love had this poor performance against the easiest schedule of pass defenses faced by any of this year's top quarterback prospects.

But there's an asterisk here, which is that Love's performance declined dramatically between his sophomore and junior seasons. In 2018, Love had a far more impressive 9.4 adjusted yards per attempt, with 32 touchdowns and six interceptions. If Love had come out a year ago, he would have had a higher projection (420 DYAR). Teams considering Love in this year's draft need to watch two years' worth of film and figure out what changed for him in 2019.

Justin Herbert, Oregon Ducks
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 23
Mean projection in Years 3-5: 689 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 43%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 28%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 19%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 11%

Herbert has started for two full seasons and two partial seasons at Oregon, so we counted him with three seasons for the purposes of QBASE. That gives him the second-best projection this year, ahead of Tagovailoa but still behind Burrow. Where Herbert takes a bit of a hit is that Oregon was only 36th in FBS in passing SP+ this season.

Jake Fromm, Georgia Bulldogs
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 57
Mean projection in Years 3-5: 439 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 51%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 28%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 15%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 7%

Fromm gets a boost in QBASE from three years of starting experience. Both his 8.1 adjusted yards per attempt and 61% completion rate last season are below the mean for top-100 picks over the past 20 years, but he played the hardest schedule among this year's top quarterback prospects. And like Love, Fromm declined in his final season, as he had a 67% completion rate and 10.1 adjusted yards per attempt in 2018. Unlike Love, Fromm's QBASE projection would have been lower had he come out a year ago with less experience (208 DYAR).

 

[Skooby]

Jacob Eason, Washington Huskies
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 60
Mean projection in Years 3-5: -98 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 68%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 21%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 9%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 2%

Eason's 2019 season stats were close to the mean for top-100 quarterback prospects, but he put up those numbers against an easier-than-average schedule. Combine that with a lower expected draft position (end of the second round) and only two years of starting experience, and Eason does poorly in our QBASE projections.

Jalen Hurts, Oklahoma Sooners
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 98
Mean projection in Years 3-5: 410 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 51%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 25%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 16%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 7%

The QBASE system likes Hurts even though he's projected to be a late third- or early fourth-round pick. He has three years of starting experience and had awesome statistics at Oklahoma in his senior season: 70% completion rate and 12.2 adjusted yards per attempt. That latter number is the sixth-highest qualifying AYPA number in FBS history. But when you look at the five players ahead of him, you sense the biggest question about Hurts. Those players include Baker Mayfield twice and Kyler Murray. Four of the top six APYA seasons ever come from Lincoln Riley's Oklahoma offense. How much of Hurts' performance is Hurts, and how much is the offense, especially considering the big jump in Hurts' stats from his two starting seasons at Alabama to last season at Oklahoma?

Anthony Gordon, Washington State Cougars
Scouts Inc. overall ranking: 116
Mean projection in Years 3-5: -234 DYAR
Bust (less than 500 DYAR): 72%
Adequate starter (500-1499 DYAR): 20%
Upper tier (1500-2500 DYAR): 7%
Elite (greater than 2500 DYAR): 1%

It's hard to put too much faith in Gordon considering that his only season as a starter came as a redshirt senior. Even Gordon's good-looking stats aren't as impressive as they might seem at first glance. He was second in FBS with 5,579 passing yards and fourth with 48 touchdowns, but those stats were partially the product of ranking first in pass attempts in Mike Leach's pass-friendly Washington State offense. Gordon was also helped by an easier schedule in the offense-friendly Pac-12. His 8.4 adjusted passing yards per attempt ranked only sixth in the conference.