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Skooby

Skooby

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Team needs
  • Shooting (if Fournier leaves)
  • Backup point guard
  • A healthy Jonathan Isaac and Al-Farouq Aminu
  • Depth at small forward
Extension eligible: Markelle Fultz (rookie), Jonathan Isaac (rookie), Evan Fournier, Aaron Gordon and Melvin Frazier

Free-agent status
  • D.J. Augustin | Bird
  • Michael Carter-Williams | Early-Bird
  • Gary Clark | Restricted | Non-Bird
  • James Ennis III | Player | Non-Bird
  • Evan Fournier | Player | Bird
  • Melvin Frazier Jr. | Team | Restricted | Early-Bird
  • Wesley Iwundu | Restricted | Bird
  • BJ Johnson | Restricted | Non-Bird
  • Vic Law | Restricted | Non-Bird
Philadelphia 76ers
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Offseason focus

  • Does the starting five work? There is $120 million committed in 2020-21 to Ben Simmons, Joel Embiid, Tobias Harris and Al Horford. What is the trade value of Horford or Harris?
  • The contract options of Josh Richardson (player option for 2021-22): extension eligible, can add an additional four seasons
  • Roster restrictions because of the luxury tax: $8 million over the threshold with a $13 million penalty
  • Balancing the roster: Five draft picks and 11 players under contract
Draft assets

  • First: No. 21 (via OKC)
  • Second: No. 34 (via Atlanta), No. 36 (via New York), No. 49 and No. 59 (via Lakers)
  • Future: The 76ers own all of their future first-round picks
  • Cash: $3.6 million (to receive) | $5.6 million (to send)
Cap space breakdown

  • Philadelphia will be in the luxury tax for the first time since 2003-04. In total, the 76ers have 12 players under contract totaling $151.3 million in salary, $19 million over the tax threshold.
  • Furkan Korkmaz ($1.8 million) and Norvel Pelle ($1.5 million) have non-guaranteed contracts.
  • Philadelphia will have the $5.7 million taxpayer midlevel exception available, plus a $1.9 million trade exception.


Sixers' projected depth chart
PG SG SF PF C
B. Simmons J. Richardson T. Harris A. Horford J. Embiid
S. Milton F. Korkmaz (1) M. Thybulle M. Scott N. Pelle (1)
Z. Smith M. Shayok (2)
1 = Non-guaranteed
2 = Two way


Team needs

Extension eligible: Josh Richardson and Joel Embiid

Free-agent status



Phoenix Suns
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Offseason focus

Draft assets

  • First: No. 10
  • Second: None
  • Future: The Suns own all of their future first-round picks
  • Cash: $4.5 million (to receive) | $5.6 million (to send)
Cap space breakdown

  • The free agency of Baynes and Saric will dictate the Suns' flexibility this offseason. Both players have a combined cap hold of $21 million, pushing Phoenix over the cap.
  • Removing the free-agent holds of Baynes and Saric would leave the Suns with $15 million in room. Cap space would increase to $20 million if the team options of Kaminsky and Diallo are declined.
  • Phoenix has until the start of free agency to decide on the team options for Frank Kaminsky ($5.0 million), Cameron Payne ($2.0 million) and Cheick Diallo ($1.8 million). The Payne contract has only $25,009 in protection if the team option is exercised.
  • The Suns have until Oct. 17 to tender a qualifying offer to Dario Saric ($5.0 million) and Jevon Carter ($1.9 million).
  • Elie Okobo has a $1.7 million non-guaranteed contract that becomes fully protected nine days after free agency starts.
  • If the Suns act as a team under the cap, they will have the $5.0 million room midlevel available. Bringing the same roster back leaves Phoenix with the $9.3 million midlevel and $3.6 million bi-annual exceptions.


Suns' projected depth chart
PG SG SF PF C
R. Rubio D. Booker M. Bridges K. Oubre Jr. D. Ayton
C. Payne (T) T. Jerome C. Johnson F. Kaminsky (T) C. Diallo (T)
E. Okobo (1) J. Lecque
1 = non-guaranteed
T = Team option


Team needs

  • Bench depth at every position
Extension eligible: Elie Okobo

Free-agent status

  • Aron Baynes | Bird
  • Jevon Carter | Restricted | Early-Bird
  • Cheick Diallo | Team | Non-Bird
  • Frank Kaminsky | Team | Non-Bird
  • Dario Saric | Restricted | Bird
  • Cameron Payne | Team | Non-Bird
  • Tariq Owens | Restricted | Non-Bird


Portland Trail Blazers
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Offseason focus

Draft assets

  • First: No. 15
  • Second: No. 46
  • Future: The Blazers own all of their future first-round picks
  • Cash: $5.6 million (to receive) | $3.8 million (to send)
Cap space breakdown

  • Removing all the free-agent cap holds would leave Portland right at the salary cap.
  • Portland has until the first day of free agency to guarantee the remaining $11 million on Ariza's $12.8 million contract.
  • Rodney Hood ($6.0 million) and Mario Hezonja ($2.0 million) both have a player option.
  • Portland will have the $9.3 million midlevel and $3.6 million bi-annual exceptions available.
  • Portland has trade exceptions worth $7.1 million, $2.4 million and $1.8 million.


Blazers' projected depth chart
PG SG SF PF C
D. Lillard C. McCollum T. Ariza (1) Z. Collins J. Nurkic
A. Simons G. Trent Jr. N. Little M. Hezonja (P)
R. Hood (P/I)
P = Player option
1 = Non-guaranteed
I = Injured


Team needs

  • Scoring off the bench
  • Stretch power forward
  • Backup center
Extension eligible: Jusuf Nurkic, Zach Collins (rookie) and Gary Trent Jr.

Free-agent status



Sacramento Kings
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Offseason focus

  • Four draft selections in June
  • The rookie extension of De'Aaron Fox: Is he worth a max contract?
  • The cost of restricted free agent Bogdan Bogdanovic: Overpay and use as a trade piece down the road -- don't lose him for nothing
  • Own free agents: Kent Bazemore (Bird rights) and Harry Giles III (restricted to paying him up to $3.97 million)
  • The health of Marvin Bagley III: has missed 70 games in two seasons
Draft assets

  • First: No. 12
  • Second: No. 35 (via Detroit), No. 43 and No. 52
  • Future: The Kings own all of their future first-round picks
  • Cash: $5.6 million (to receive) | $5.6 million (to send)
Cap space breakdown

  • The $16.2 million free agent cap hold for Bogdanovic has Sacramento right at the salary cap. For the Kings to have cap flexibility, Bogdanovic would need to sign with another team and forward Nemanja Bjelica would need to be waived. Bjelica has a $7.2 million non-guaranteed contract that becomes fully protected if he is on the roster past October 17. The Kings also have until Oct. 17 to tender Bogdanovic a $10.6 million qualifying offer.
  • Jabari Parker has until Oct. 15 to opt into his $6.5 million contract for 2020-21.
  • The Kings likely will have the $9.3 million midlevel and $3.6 million bi-annual exceptions available. They also have a $2.7 million trade exception.


Kings' projected depth chart
PG SG SF PF C
D. Fox B. Hield H. Barnes N. Bjelica (1) M. Bagley III
C. Joseph J. James J. Parker (P) R. Holmes
K. Guy (2)
1 = Non-guaranteed
2 = Two way
P = Player option


Team needs

  • Depth at shooting guard, small forward and power forward
  • Scoring off the bench
  • Marvin Bagley to stay healthy
Extension eligible: De'Aaron Fox (rookie) and Nemanja Bjelica

Free-agent status

 
Skooby

Skooby

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San Antonio Spurs
i


Offseason focus

Draft assets

  • First: No. 11
  • Second: No. 41
  • Future: The Spurs own all of their future first-round picks
  • Cash: $5.6 million (to receive) | $5.6 million (to send)
Cap space breakdown

  • The DeRozan player option and $11.3 million free-agent hold for Jakob Poeltl has San Antonio over the salary cap. For San Antonio to have financial flexibility, DeRozan would need to opt out and Poeltl would need to be not brought back. The Spurs would have $15 million in room but lose a 20-point scorer in DeRozan and backup center in Poeltl for nothing. The Spurs would have $10 million in room if DeRozan opts out, Poeltl returns and Trey Lyles and Chimezie Metu are both waived.
  • The $5.5 million Lyles contract becomes guaranteed if he is on the roster past October 18. Lyles currently has $1 million guaranteed. Metu's $1.7 million contract is non-guaranteed. It has $500K in salary protection if he is not waived by one month after free agency starts. The full amount becomes guaranteed if he is not waived by the first day of the regular season.
  • Staying over the salary cap would leave the Spurs with the $9.3 million midlevel and $3.6 million bi-annual exceptions. They would have the $5.0 million room midlevel if they go under.


Spurs' projected depth chart
PG SG SF PF C
D. Murray D. White D. DeRozan (P) R. Gay L. Aldridge
P. Mills L. Walker K. Johnson T. Lyles (1)
L. Samanic C. Metu (1)
P = Player option
1 = Non-guaranteed


Team needs

  • Starting small forward if no DeRozan
  • Backup small forward and center
Extension eligible: DeMar DeRozan, LaMarcus Aldridge, Derrick White (rookie), Patty Mills and Chimezie Metu (starting Sept. 4)

Free-agent status



Toronto Raptors
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Offseason focus

  • The free agency of Fred VanVleet: top point guard on the market
  • Prioritize cap space for 2021? Key free agents in VanVleet, Serge Ibaka and Marc Gasol and a projected $70 million in room next season (before draft picks are added)
  • The expiring contracts of Kyle Lowry and Norman Powell (player option in 2021)
  • The rookie extension of OG Anunoby: $11.7 million cap hold in 2021
Draft assets

  • First: 29
  • Second: 59
  • Future: The Raptors own all of their future first-round picks.
  • Cash: $5.6 million (to receive) | $5.6 million (to send)
Cap space breakdown

  • Toronto will be right at the salary cap, but if VanVleet becomes too costly, Toronto could have $15 million in room. The room factors in Gasol and Ibaka not returning.
  • Toronto has three players -- Terence Davis, Matt Thomas and Dewan Hernandez -- on non-guaranteed contracts. The $1.5 million Davis and Hernandez contracts become guaranteed on November 7.
  • Stanley Johnson has until prior to the start of free agency to exercise his $3.8 million contract.
  • If the Raptors stay over the cap, they will have the $9.3 million midlevel exception.


Raptors' projected depth chart
PG SG SF PF C
K. Lowry N. Powell O. Anunoby P. Siakam D. Hernandez (1)
T. Davis (1) P. McCaw S. Johnson (P)
M. Thomas (1) P. Watson (2)
P = Player option
1 = Non-guaranteed
2 = Two-way


Team needs

  • Starting center
  • Bench depth: Point guard, small forward and center
Extension eligible: Norman Powell and OG Anunoby (rookie)

Free-agent status



Utah Jazz
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Offseason focus

  • The rookie extension of Donovan Mitchell: blank-check approach at the start of free agency? $15.8 million cap hold in 2021 vs. a $30 million cap hit, though Utah is not projected to have space to use
  • The expiring contract of Rudy Gobert (extension eligible)
  • The $34.5 million expiring contract of Mike Conley
  • The cost of free agent Jordan Clarkson
Draft assets

  • First: No. 23
  • Second: None
  • Future: The Jazz will send Memphis a 2021 pick that is Nos. 1-7 and Nos. 15-30 protected. The pick has top-six protection in 2022, top-three protection in 2023 and top-one protection in 2024.
  • Cash: $5.6 million (to receive) | $5.6 million (to send)
Cap space breakdown

  • Including its first-round pick, Utah has 14 players under contract and $123 million in committed salary, $9 million below the luxury-tax line.
  • The Jazz have five players -- Nigel Williams-Goss, Miye Oni, Juwan Morgan, Georges Niang and Rayjon Tucker -- on partial or non-guaranteed contracts.
  • The Jazz will have the $9.3 million midlevel and $3.6 million bi-annual exceptions available.


Jazz's projected depth chart
PG SG SF PF C
M. Conley (ETO) D. Mitchell J. Ingles B. Bogdanovic R. Gobert
N. Williams-Goss (1) R. Tucker (1) R. O'Neale G. Niang (1) T. Bradley
M. Oni (1) J. Morgan (1) E. Davis
ETO = Early termination option
1 = Non/partial-guarantee


Team needs

  • Jordan Clarkson or his replacement in free agency
  • The bench: point guard, shooting guard and small forward
Extension eligible: Donovan Mitchell (rookie), Tony Bradley (rookie), Mike Conley Jr., Rudy Gobert (super max) and Georges Niang

Free-agent status



Washington Wizards
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Offseason focus

Draft assets

  • First: No. 9
  • Second: No. 37 (via Chicago)
  • Future: The Wizards own all of their future first-round picks
  • Cash: $5.6 million (to receive) | $4.5 million (to send)
Cap space breakdown

  • The $13.3 million Bertans free agent hold has Washington over the salary cap. Because of their first-round cap hold, the Wizards will be right at the cap even if Bertans does not return.
  • Washington has two players -- Isaac Bonga and Anzejs Pasecniks -- on partial or non-guaranteed contracts.
  • The Wizards will have the $9.3 million midlevel and $3.6 million bi-annual exceptions available. Washington also has a $1.6 million trade exception.


Wizards' projected depth chart
PG SG SF PF C
J. Wall B. Beal T. Brown R. Hachimura T. Bryant
I. Smith J. Robinson I. Bonga (1) M. Wagner
A. Schofield A. Pasecniks (1)
1 = Non-guaranteed


Team needs

  • Davis Bertans or a stretch-4 replacement in free agency or the draft
  • Bench scoring
  • Third point guard
Extension eligible: Isaac Bonga and John Wall

Free-agent status

 
Skooby

Skooby

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Morethan1 said:
@Skooby

NBA mock draft: Loaded No. 1 pick race, new top 60

Do you work for ESPN?
Click to expand...
lol...nah I don't. But if I could talk to my younger self I would say pursue something in sports. Since I love sports!

NBA mock draft: Loaded No. 1 pick race and a new top 60

With LaMelo Ball, James Wiseman and Anthony Edwards off to the NBA, teams can fully shift their attention to next year's highly touted prospects, which is widely expected to be a banner crop with star power that significantly exceeds that of the 2020 class.

We've been studying this group closely for the better parts of two years, attending numerous FIBA tournaments, USA basketball camps, AAU and high school events and breaking down hundreds of hours of film while quarantining over the spring and summer. That was a necessity after losing several important scouting evaluation platforms due to the pandemic that traditionally help decipher how NBA teams build their early draft boards.

This will be an unprecedented stretch in many ways, with plenty of questions already bubbling about the fate of the college and European seasons. Working from home will continue to be the norm for most scouts, leading executives to mostly rely on film and background checks from trusted contacts as the primary means of talent evaluation. There's a sense of urgency after last season was abruptly canceled, as no one quite knows how many real games prospects will be able to play.

The 2021 draft appears to be tentatively on track for late July, though a lot needs to happen between now and then. For now, here's our new mock draft featuring the top 60 prospects in this upcoming class, plus the big things to watch with the college basketball season about to tip off.


Note: While it's too early to reasonably predict the 2021 NBA draft order, we've used ESPN's October Power Rankings as a guide to help give an early look and show traded picks.


2021 NBA mock draft
Pick Player Team Height Pos. Age
1. NYK Cade Cunningham Oklahoma State 6-8 PG 19.1
2. CLE Jalen Green G League Ignite 6-5 SG 18.7
3. DET B.J. Boston Kentucky 6-7 SG 18.9
4. CHA Evan Mobley USC 7-0 C 19.4
5. CHI Ziaire Williams Stanford 6-8 SG/SF 19.2
6. GSW (via MIN) Jalen Johnson Duke 6-9 SF/PF 18.9
7. ATL Keon Johnson Tennessee 6-5 SG 18.7
8. SAC Scottie Barnes Florida State 6-9 SF/PF 19.3
9. SAS Jonathan Kuminga G League Ignite 6-8 SF/PF 18.1
10. WAS Caleb Love North Carolina 6-4 PG/SG 19.1
11. ORL Josh Christopher Arizona State 6-5 SG 18.9
12. PHX Juhann Begarin Paris Basket 6-6 SG 18.2
13. MEM Daishen Nix G League Ignite 6-5 PG 18.7
14. NOP Usman Garuba Real Madrid 6-8 PF 18.7
15. IND Terrence Clarke Kentucky 6-7 SG/SF 19.2
16. OKC Greg Brown Texas 6-9 PF 19.2
17. HOU (via POR) James Bouknight Connecticut 6-5 SG 20.1
18. UTA Jalen Suggs Gonzaga 6-4 PG/SG 19.4
19. OKC (via HOU) David Johnson Louisville 6-5 PG 19.7
20. TOR Josh Primo Alabama 6-6 SG 17.9
21. BKN Earl Timberlake Miami 6-6 SF 20.0
22. HOU (via MIA) Day'Ron Sharpe North Carolina 6-11 C 19.0
23. PHI Keyontae Johnson Florida 6-5 SF 20.5
24. BOS DJ Steward Duke 6-2 PG 19.1
25. OKC (via GSW) Isaiah Jackson Kentucky 6-11 PF/C 18.8
26. NYK (via DAL) Roko Prkacin Cibona Zagreb 6-9 PF 17.9
27. DEN Jared Butler Baylor 6-3 PG/SG 20.2
28. MIL Scottie Lewis Florida 6-5 SG/SF 20.7
29. LAC Moussa Cisse Memphis 6-10 C 18.2
30. LAL Ariel Hukporti Nevezis 7-0 C 18.6
31. PHI (via NYK) Jaden Springer Tennessee 6-4 PG/SG 18.1
32. NOP (via CLE) Cam Thomas LSU 6-4 SG 19.1
33. NYK (via DET) Moses Moody Arkansas 6-6 SG 18.4
34. NYK (via CHA) Wendell Moore Duke 6-6 SF 19.1
35. CHI Jeremiah Robinson-Earl Villanova 6-9 PF 20.0
36. MIN Corey Kispert Gonzaga 6-7 SF 21.7
37. BKN (via ATL) Matthew Hurt Duke 6-9 PF 20.5
38. SAC Romeo Weems DePaul 6-7 SF 19.4
39. SAS Terrence Shannon Texas Tech 6-6 SG 20.3
40. NOP (via WAS) Rokas Jokubaitis Zalgiris 6-5 PG 20.0
41. ORL Mario Nakic Oostende 6-8 SF 19.4
42. BKN (via PHX) Aaron Henry Michigan State 6-6 SG 21.2
43. SAC (via MEM) Franz Wagner Michigan 6-9 SF 19.2
44. NOP Amar Sylla Oostende 6-9 PF/C 19.1
45. IND Filip Petrusev Mega Soccerbet 7-0 PF/C 20.6
46. OKC DJ Carton Marquette 6-2 PG 20.3
47. MEM (via POR) Marcus Garrett Kansas 6-5 PG 22.0
48. IND (via UTA) Jason Preston Ohio 6-4 PG 21.2
49. HOU Trayce Jackson-Davis Indiana 6-9 PF/C 20.7
50. DET (via TOR) Carlos Alocen Real Madrid 6-5 PG 19.8
51. CHA (via BKN) Luka Garza Iowa 6-11 C 21.9
52. ATL (via MIA) Trendon Watford LSU 6-9 PF 20.0
53. PHI Isaiah Todd G League Ignite 6-10 PF 19.1
54. BOS Feron Hunt SMU 6-8 PF 21.3
55. UTA (via GSW) Taevion Kinsey Marshall 6-5 SG 20.7
56. DAL Makur Maker Howard 6-11 PF/C 20.0
57. OKC (via DEN) Marcus Zegarowski Creighton 6-2 PG 22.3
58. IND (via MIL) Will Richardson Oregon 6-5 PG 21.2
59. CHA (via LAC) John Petty Alabama 6-5 SG/SF 21.9
60. DET (via LAL) Chris Smith UCLA 6-9 SF/PF 20.9


Storylines to watch
• The race for the No. 1 pick is still fairly open right now, though not quite to the extent that it was in 2020.

Oklahoma State point guard Cade Cunningham is the early favorite, and he has a great chance to hold on to that spot due to the premium that NBA teams are putting on oversized playmakers who can defend multiple positions and carry significant shot-creation duties. Cunningham's ideal physical tools, outstanding feel for the game, pick-and-roll savvy and increasingly effective jump shot puts him in pole position, despite the fact that Oklahoma State will not be playing in the NCAA tournament.

Cunningham's main competition at this stage will come from the G League Ignite's Jalen Green and Kentucky's B.J. Boston. Green is perhaps the most explosive player in the class. He has fantastic scoring instincts in the open floor and is a capable shot-maker, passer and defender. How effectively NBA teams are able to scout him -- along with potential lottery pick teammates Jonathan Kuminga and Daishen Nix -- is one of the questions NBA teams have as the G League is still getting a handle on what its season will look like amid the pandemic.

Boston may be able to capitalize on that with a strong season playing in a more traditional setting at Kentucky, where he has already demonstrated impressive talent as a 6-7 guard with a 7-foot wingspan who can create shots for himself and others, pull up with deep range and defend all over the floor.


• The rest of the lottery is composed of one-and-done freshmen and promising internationals.

USC's Evan Mobley spent much of his high school career in consideration for the No. 1 spot in recruiting rankings thanks to his dynamic combination of length, mobility, defensive versatility and offensive upside. How his 215-pound frame and modern skill level evolve will help determine how high he gets drafted, but there's quite a bit to like about his long-term potential.

NBA teams will have many flavors of wing prospects to choose from in the rest of the top-10 if our early projections are any indication. Stanford's Ziaire Williams has outstanding tools at 6-8 with budding ballhandling, passing, shot-making and defensive ability, but he is rail-thin and a late bloomer whose consistency fluctuated in high school. Duke's Jalen Johnson is physically ready at 6-9, 220 pounds, and perhaps the most unique prospect in the class skills-wise with his ambidextrous ballhandling and passing as well as outstanding defensive versatility. His jump shot will swing his ability to contend for No. 1 or slide to later in the lottery.

The dark horse of the group, at least relative to his No. 28 recruiting ranking, is Tennessee's Keon Johnson, who is garnering rave reviews from the Vols' coaching staff in the preseason. He has been projected in our lottery since an impressive showing at the USA Basketball minicamp in October 2019, but missed most of his senior year of high school with a knee injury. Johnson is an ultra-aggressive, explosive guard who plays with outstanding energy and activity, and his skill level seems to be catching up with his physical tools. His passing, shooting and ballhandling looked significantly improved prior to his injury. Likely to see time as a big playmaker who defends all over the floor, Johnson is another high-upside prospect who could make a run at the top five, similar to Isaac Okoro did.

FSU's Scottie Barnes dipped in our early projections, but he has rocketed back into the top 10. Film from his outstanding senior year of high school shows that he is perhaps the best defender in the class and also one of its best passers, Barnes doesn't jump off the page with his athleticism or shooting, but he brings real contributions to winning with his toughness and feel. He will likely be a polarizing prospect if his career 27% 3-point shooting and 67% free throw shooting don't show improvement in college.

Kuminga, one of the most gifted prospects physically at 6-8 with a 7-foot wingspan and a strong frame, had an up-and-down final season in high school due to injury, inconsistency and inefficiency. His skill, feel and intensity are still catching up with his tools. Still, he's a prototype for what the NBA looks for in a combo forward, as he's lethal in the open court, shoots off the dribble some and brings multi-positional versatility defensively.

• Are big men back? The results of the 2020 NBA draft -- in which 10 players who played primarily at center ended up being selected in the top 35 -- showed that teams aren't quite ready to fully usher in the small-ball era. The NBA playoffs seemed to remind executives of the value of big men, especially those with legitimate skill or game-changing defensive versatility, and that translated to draft.

Seventeen of the 60 players currently projected to be drafted can be categorized as big men, the exact same number of players who heard their name called in 2020.

• As projected, 2020 ended up being a historically young and inexperienced class, with zero college juniors or seniors drafted in the top 25. Three seniors were drafted in the top 45, an all-time low. We currently have zero seniors projected in the first round and only two juniors, both in the 20s.

History suggests that older, more productive college players usually end up working their way up draft boards during the season. Due to the uncertainty surrounding the pre-draft process, significantly more players than usual either withdrew their names at the 2020 deadline or elected not to enter altogether. That could indicate more upperclassmen making up the 2021 draftees.

• Six prospects who spent their season outside of the U.S. were drafted in the first round in 2020, the highest number since 2016. That number might drop slightly in 2021, with only four internationally based prospects currently in our first round, but there are enough players having strong seasons thus far in Europe (as well as Australia, which has yet to tip) to suggest that number might tick up. Several intriguing candidates have already helped their stock, which we'll dive into in the coming weeks.

• The strength of the 2021 draft class is perhaps best reflected in how few projected lottery picks or unprotected first-round selections have been traded. Most teams have put a premium on these upcoming first-rounders given the expected star power.

Traded picks

  • New York owns Dallas' first-rounder unprotected.
  • Golden State owns Minnesota's first-rounder with top-three protection.
  • Oklahoma City owns Golden State's first-rounder with top-20 protection.
  • Houston owns Portland's first-rounder with lottery protection.
  • OKC will get the two best first-rounders between its own pick, Houston's pick and Miami's pick (protected Nos. 1-4), with Houston getting the worst pick.
  • New York has first-round swap rights with the Clippers.
  • The Pelicans get the Lakers pick if it falls between Nos. 1-7.
  • Memphis owns Utah's first-rounder if it falls between Nos. 8-14.
 
Skooby

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Jplaya2023 said:
@Skooby

Top trade targets, surprising teams and bold predictions

How good are the Steelers? Ranking Pittsburgh against other 10-0 teams

What each College Football Playoff contender is looking for in the first rankings

when you have a chance.

thank you
Click to expand...
NBA free agency: Top trade targets, surprising teams and bold predictions

2020 NBA free agency has seen most of the top players reach agreements quickly, so let's look ahead: What comes next?

Will marquee stars such as Bam Adebayo and Giannis Antetokounmpo sign with their current teams on lucrative extensions? Which teams have the potential for a surprising outcome this season? And will superstars James Harden and Bradley Beal be moved before the season?

Our NBA experts talk about the big trade targets to watch and provide their bold predictions.


1. Besides the Giannis situation, what are you watching most closely?
Tim MacMahon: How the Rockets handle James Harden's desire to be dealt to the Brooklyn Nets. The Rockets insist that they haven't given up on winning back Harden's heart -- and the series of moves that resulted in high-scoring center Christian Wood's arrival in Houston were an aggressive, expensive attempt to improve the roster -- but the organization is bracing for life after The Beard. Houston can't afford to be bullied into a bad trade, and time is on the team's side, with Harden under contract for two more years.


Bobby Marks: Who is the next player to sign a rookie extension? The obvious choice is that Miami's Bam Adebayo would join Jayson Tatum, De'Aaron Fox and Donovan Mitchell in the $163 million club. However, the Heat have made it clear this offseason, with the contracts for Avery Bradley, Goran Dragic, Meyers Leonard and Maurice Harkless, that preserving cap space in 2021 is a top priority. An Adebayo extension would likely take them out of the 2021 chase for a max player in free agency. Other names to keep an eye on: Derrick White of the San Antonio Spurs and John Collins of the Atlanta Hawks.

Kevin Pelton: Which Los Angeles team wins the battle for minimum-salary players. Both the Clippers and Lakers are hard-capped after using their non-taxpayer midlevel exceptions, and they have multiple spots to fill. We'll see which team can recruit better players interested in seeking a championship while playing in Los Angeles.

Jorge Sedano: I'm curious to see how the situation with Victor Oladipo and the Indiana Pacers plays out. In 2017-18, he averaged 23.1 points, 5.2 rebounds, 4.3 assists and 2.4 steals and won the league's Most Improved Player award. Oladipo's comeback from a knee injury thus far has been uneven, but if he can return to his pre-injury form, a contender should look to make a move for him. The question is whether Indiana will sell low soon or hold on until the trade deadline for a shot at a better return.

Tim Bontemps: What happens with Rudy Gobert in Utah. It has been a good offseason for the Jazz, between reaching a deal with Jordan Clarkson, bringing back old friend Derrick Favors and securing Donovan Mitchell with a max contract extension. But with Gobert one year from unrestricted free agency, the final piece of Utah's offseason will be trying to get Gobert signed to a contract extension to keep him with the franchise long-term. If they can't reach an agreement, Gobert will become an intriguing trade target.


2. Which trade target do you expect to move, either soon or before the deadline?
Bontemps: While the backcourt duos in Houston (Harden and Russell Westbrook) and Washington (John Wall and Bradley Beal) have garnered the most attention, they're unlikely to go anywhere. I'll go a rung lower and say the obvious player to be traded is George Hill, who hasn't technically been traded to the Oklahoma City Thunder yet because of contract stipulations. A combo guard with length, defensive ability, a quality shooting stroke and a reasonable contract, Hill is all but certain to become the latest player the Thunder flip into another first-round pick sometime between now and the deadline.


Pelton: Likewise, I think Hill is going to be an interesting player to watch. His combination of shooting and playmaking makes him an ideal contributor on a contending team. I like the fit for the LA Clippers, but adding Hill would almost certainly mean trading Patrick Beverley or Lou Williams.

Marks: Spencer Dinwiddie. I have the Brooklyn guard as a likely candidate because of his expiring contract. (He has a player option for 2021-22.) The Nets gave $72 million to Joe Harris, and they're already over the projected $136 million tax threshold in 2021. Bringing back Dinwiddie on a long-term contract ($15 million-$16 million) would see them pay a substantial tax penalty.

MacMahon: John Collins? I don't predict that with full confidence, but Collins' fit or lack thereof with the Hawks has certainly piqued interest around the league. Danilo Gallinari, Atlanta's prized free-agency acquisition, needs to play primarily power forward at this stage of his career. The Hawks have traded for a starting center (Clint Capela) and used the No. 6 overall pick on another big man (Onyeka Okongwu) this year. It'd make more sense for the Hawks to shop Collins rather than pay him.

Sedano: The San Antonio Spurs have been too quiet this offseason. There were rumblings about DeMar DeRozan to the Los Angeles Lakers, but that move never came to fruition. Plus, LaMarcus Aldridge is heading into a contract year. I think there is a chance that they can both move to contending teams before the deadline.





3. Which East team has the potential to go in a surprising direction, based on the offseason so far?
Sedano: The Hawks made moves that put them in the East playoff picture. Acquiring Gallinari and Bogdan Bogdanovic, if the Kings don't match his offer sheet, gives them needed shooting. Plus, Bogdanovic brings a secondary ball handler who allows Trae Young to play off the ball some. The Hawks' other young players -- De'Andre Hunter, Cam Reddish and Kevin Huerter -- should slot into reserve roles to play with Kris Dunn if Gallinari and Bogdanovic move into the starting lineup.

Marks: Could a team that has a $155 million payroll be a surprise? The answer is yes, considering what the Philadelphia 76ers accomplished. They hired Doc Rivers and Daryl Morey, cleared up the logjam at center by moving Al Horford and shored up their shooting with the additions of Danny Green and Seth Curry. Finally, they added Dwight Howard for the veterans minimum to back up Joel Embiid.

Bontemps: Despite bringing back virtually the same team, I'll say the Indiana Pacers are going to take a step back from where they were last season. Things could get complicated for Indiana with Victor Oladipo entering a contract year, a mix of players who will expect to get shots and the ongoing question of whether Domantas Sabonis and Myles Turner are a workable pairing long-term. It's a potentially volatile mix that seems like it could change between now and the trade deadline.

Pelton: Toronto. The Raptors spent a good chunk of the 2019-20 regular season playing without Marc Gasol or Serge Ibaka because of injuries and kept on rolling. They did well to replace the two veteran centers with Aron Baynes and Alex Len and have Chris Boucher ready to step into a larger role. Toronto would be better off with Gasol and Ibaka, but their losses shouldn't dramatically change expectations.

MacMahon: I'm not sure you can call Detroit's direction surprising, but I'm puzzled by the Pistons' moves. Why would the Pistons let Wood go and overpay Mason Plumlee? And what about Jerami Grant? He's a good role player with a career average of 9.3 points per game, but is he a potential offensive focal point worth creating cap space via the stretch provision to pay $60 million?
 
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4. Which West team has the potential to go in a surprising direction, based on the offseason so far?
MacMahon: The Phoenix Suns had their best offseason since they signed Steve Nash in 2004. Phoenix set itself up to end a decadelong playoff drought by pulling off a trade for Chris Paul, a phenomenal backcourt partner and mentor for franchise cornerstone Devin Booker. Jae Crowder -- who wouldn't settle for a one-year deal to stay in Miami and received $30 million over three years from the Suns -- is a strong veteran addition for a team with a young core and serious playoff ambitions.

Sedano: The Portland Trail Blazers did well in free agency. The Robert Covington trade brings them the versatile wing they were missing last season. Derrick Jones Jr. adds another upgrade on defense. Plus, Rodney Hood's return bolsters the guard rotation. Bringing back Enes Kanter along with the addition of Harry Giles III makes for a nice frontcourt complement to Jusuf Nurkic and Zach Collins.

Bontemps: I think the New Orleans Pelicans could take a fairly significant step back this season. Although Steven Adams is a good player, I don't like his fit with the Pelicans at all. They're a team short on shooting, and now Zion Williamson and Adams take up the same space. I think it's likely that the Pelicans are closer to the bottom of the West standings than they are to the eighth seed.

Pelton: Utah. Re-signing Jordan Clarkson ensures that the Jazz bring back all eight players who saw at least 900 minutes of action for them last season, and the return of Derrick Favors solidifies the frontcourt. Plus, Bojan Bogdanovic should be back healthy for a run at a top-four seed in the West.

Marks: Portland. I will go bold and say that not only did the Trail Blazers have the best offseason among all teams, but also they are the second-best team in the Western Conference. Portland turned Mario Hezonja into Enes Kanter and Trevor Ariza into Robert Covington, used the midlevel exception on Derrick Jones Jr. and brought back Rodney Hood and Carmelo Anthony. The Blazers also signed former first-round pick Harry Giles III. Those five players join Damian Lillard, CJ McCollum, Zach Collins, Jusuf Nurkic and Gary Trent Jr.


5. What's your bold prediction for the rest of the offseason?
MacMahon: The Rockets' pair of superstars who would prefer to be elsewhere won't get their wish before the season opener. It will take Houston's front office time to find appropriate value for Harden and Westbrook.

Pelton: No former All-Stars will be traded between now and opening night.

Sedano: The Heat will mine the trade market to add an impact player on an expiring deal.

Bontemps: The Hawks will trade John Collins. Having drafted Okongwu and signed Gallinari, the Hawks have made moves telegraphing that Collins -- a talented, young player and one hoping for a contract extension -- could be on the move. Given how tilted the Hawks are toward offense, moving an offense-first big such as Collins would make sense, assuming the right deal can be found.

Marks: Giannis will sign the supermax with Milwaukee.
 
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Ranking the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers against the best 10-0 teams of the past 35 years
Is it possible for an undefeated team to be flying under the radar? The Pittsburgh Steelers might be doing just that. The Steelers moved to 10-0 with a 27-3 drubbing of the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 11, but they aren't the biggest story in the NFL this year. They aren't even the current Super Bowl favorites, as the odds still favor the Kansas City Chiefs.

Let's take a detailed look at the Steelers. How good are they really, and how much is their schedule an issue? Where do the Steelers stand among all the teams to start 10-0 in recent NFL history? And what are Pittsburgh's chances of completing a perfect regular season at 16-0?


How good is Pittsburgh?


Despite its unblemished record, it's hard to find an advanced metric that has Pittsburgh as the best team in the NFL this season. Football Outsiders' DVOA ratings list the Steelers third, trailing New Orleans and Tampa Bay. In ESPN's FPI ratings, the Steelers are third, trailing Kansas City and Tampa Bay. FiveThirtyEight's ELO ratings also put the Steelers third, and Pro Football Reference's Simple Ratings System has them fourth.

There are two major reasons why advanced metrics do not have the Steelers ranked first. First, Pittsburgh has escaped a lot of close games. Based simply on points scored and allowed, we would project the Steelers to be 8-2 rather than 10-0. Five of their wins have come by a touchdown or less, including wins over lesser teams such as Denver and Dallas.

And that's the second reason why advanced metrics don't put the Steelers first: schedule strength. Seven of Pittsburgh's first 10 wins have come over teams with losing records. Six of those teams are ranked 25th or lower in DVOA right now. The average Steelers opponent this year has a DVOA of -12.6%. That's the second-easiest schedule faced by any 10-0 team since 1985, trailing only the 2005 Indianapolis Colts.

None of this means the Steelers aren't a good team, of course. They are a very good team! In particular, the Steelers have a great defense. Even after adjusting for opponent strength, the Steelers rank No. 1 in defensive DVOA through Week 11. They are No. 1 against the pass and No. 4 against the run. The Steelers are powered by an excellent front seven, which ranks first in pass rush win rate and eighth in run stop win rate. The Steelers are also above average (eighth) in special teams DVOA.

The problem comes with the offense, which is just average (17th in DVOA) and the worst of any of the 10-0 teams since 1985. The running game is particularly problematic, ranking just 29th in DVOA, including 31st on third or fourth down. The passing game is a bit better, currently ranking 13th. The opposite of the rushing game, the passing game peaks on third and fourth down, ranking fourth on those downs. The Steelers' passing game is built around an excellent wide receiver trio of JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, and rookie Chase Claypool, but doesn't have as much success beyond that. Running back James Conner has a negative DVOA as a receiver, as do both tight ends Eric Ebron and Vance McDonald.

Yet even with that average offense, the Steelers don't stand out in the history of 10-0 teams quite as much as you might think. Many of the other teams that started 10-0 got there with an easy schedule and/or close wins. A month ago, a lot of the talk on Twitter tagged Pittsburgh as the worst team to ever start undefeated. They weren't. And now that we're a few more games into the season, they still aren't. Let's take a look at the past 35 years of teams that started 10-0 to see how Pittsburgh compares to other teams that have accomplished this feat.




Where the Steelers rank against other 10-0 teams


Here's a look at the 14 teams to start 10-0 since 1985, from the best DVOA through 10 games, to the worst DVOA in that span. How good were they, how did they finally lose a game, and how did their seasons eventually end? Note that our ratings begin with the 1985 season, so we can't rank the four previous Super Bowl-era teams to start 10-0: the 1969 Rams, 1972 Dolphins, 1975 Vikings, and 1984 Dolphins.


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1. 2007 New England Patriots


DVOA through 10 games: 75.8% (1st)
First loss: Super Bowl XLII, 17-14 to New York Giants (13-6)
Final results: 16-0, lost Super Bowl (53.4% DVOA, 1st)

The 2007 Patriots, of course, did not lose a game during the entire regular season, with their first loss finally coming in one of the greatest upsets in Super Bowl history. Their DVOA rating through 10 games is miles ahead of any other team, showing just how much they dominated opponents in the first half of 2007. Even more impressive: New England played the toughest schedule of any of the 10-0 teams since 1985, based on the average DVOA of opponents after 10 games. The Patriots' first 10 opponents included the teams ranked second (Dallas) and third (Indianapolis) in DVOA, plus No. 9 San Diego and No. 10 Cleveland.

New England kept winning in the second half of the regular season, but it wasn't quite as impressive. Their DVOA over the final six regular-season games was "only" 21.5%, sixth in the league for that stretch, and three of those last six wins came by just a field goal.



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2. 1991 Washington


DVOA through 10 games: 61.8% (1st)
First loss: Game 12, 24-21 to Dallas Cowboys (6-5)
Final results: 14-2, won Super Bowl (56.9% DVOA, 1st)

Washington's perfect season was spoiled at home by an up-and-coming Dallas team. In fact, this Cowboys win was the start of a six-game Dallas winning streak that included a playoff victory. Dallas won despite losing Troy Aikman to an injury in the third quarter. Michael Irvin caught nine passes for 130 yards and a touchdown against the legendary Darrell Green. At the end of the game, Mark Rypien led a 43-second touchdown drive to make it 24-21, but Washington could not recover the onside kick.

Washington lost one more game, a meaningless Week 17 contest with Philadelphia in which Rypien sat at halftime, then Washington went on to win the Super Bowl. This is the greatest team ever in 35 years of Football Outsiders DVOA, leading the league in both offense and special teams DVOA, while finishing third on defense.



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3. 1985 Chicago Bears


DVOA through 10 games: 53.2% (1st)
First loss: Game 13, 38-24 to Miami Dolphins (8-4)
Final results: 15-1, won Super Bowl (52.5% DVOA, 1st)

Chicago made it to 12-0 before its only loss, which came in one of the most famous regular-season games in NFL history. (You can watch it here.) The game came on Monday Night Football and the Dolphins were seen as protecting the legacy of the undefeated 1972 team. Dan Marino threw for 270 yards including two touchdowns to Nat Moore and a 42-yard touchdown to Mark Clayton. This was only the third game all season, including the playoffs, in which the Bears gave up more than 20 points. After a close win in their next game, 17-10 over Indianapolis, the Bears demolished the rest of their schedule. They outscored playoff opponents 91-10 on the way to winning Super Bowl XX.



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4. 1998 Denver Broncos


DVOA through 10 games: 44.9% (1st)
First loss: Game 14, 20-16 to New York Giants (5-8)
Final results: 14-2, won Super Bowl (32.6% DVOA, 1st)

The 1998 Broncos are a reminder of just how hard it is to go undefeated. It's not just the good teams on your schedule that can beat you. The New York Giants were 5-8 and ranked 26th in DVOA when they welcomed the 13-0 Broncos to the Meadowlands. They walked out with a 20-16 victory after Kent Graham found Amani Toomer for a 37-yard touchdown with just 57 seconds left. John Elway got the Broncos down to the Giants 30 in the final seconds, but the Broncos couldn't connect on the last pass.

Denver lost again on the road the next week, to a playoff-bound Miami team, but that was the Broncos' last loss of the season. They beat Seattle in Week 17, then marched through the playoffs and won their second straight Super Bowl.



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5. 1990 New York Giants


DVOA through 10 games: 41.2% (1st)
First loss: Game 11, 31-13 to Philadelphia Eagles (6-4)
Final results: 13-3, won Super Bowl (30.8% DVOA, 1st)

Everything was set up for the 11-0 Giants to face the 11-0 49ers on Monday Night Football until both teams had to go and ruin it by losing in Week 12. For the Giants, that meant a loss in Philadelphia to Buddy Ryan's Eagles. The game was 14-13 Eagles at halftime, but the Giants were shut out in the second half. Randall Cunningham threw for 229 yards and two touchdowns, adding 66 rushing yards and a touchdown on the ground.

The Giants ended up losing that showdown with the 49ers the next week, and they lost to the Bills in Week 15 as well to finish the season at 13-3. They got revenge on both teams in the playoffs on their way to winning Super Bowl XXV. The Bills might have been a 6.5-point favorite in that game, but our DVOA ratings had the Giants as the best team in the league that year.



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6. 2009 Indianapolis Colts


DVOA through 10 games: 36.1% (2nd)
First loss: Game 15, 29-15 to New York Jets (7-7)
Final results: 14-2, lost Super Bowl (17.0% DVOA, 8th)


Here's our first undefeated team that didn't top the DVOA ratings despite starting 10-0. The Colts (and the undefeated Saints, who we'll get to in a bit) sat a little bit behind the 7-3 Patriots after Week 11 of the 2009 season. However, this wasn't because the Colts were penalized for an easy schedule. In fact, the 2009 Colts were the only 10-0 team other than the 2007 Patriots who played an above-average schedule in their first 10 games according to average DVOA of opponents.

You might notice that there's a big difference between the Colts' DVOA after 10 games and where they finished the regular season. DVOA wasn't very impressed by the Colts' wins in Weeks 12-15, giving them a rating of just 11.3% during those four weeks. But things really dive-bombed at the end of the season. The Colts could have had a perfect regular season and gave it away to rest up for the playoffs. With the Colts' home fans booing the decision, Jim Caldwell pulled Peyton Manning and other key players with the Colts leading the Jets 15-10 at halftime of Week 16, and the Jets went on to win the game. Starters sat much of the Week 17 loss to Buffalo as well. Backup Curtis Painter's performance in those last two games is a big reason why the Colts' DVOA rating fell so far between their 10-0 start and the end of the season.



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7. 2005 Indianapolis Colts


DVOA through 10 games: 35.4% (1st)
First loss: Game 14, 26-17 to San Diego Chargers (8-5)
Final results: 14-2, lost divisional round (33.4% DVOA, 1st)

At least this Colts team didn't pull its starters and essentially kick away a perfect season on purpose. Instead, these Colts got run over by the San Diego Chargers, who ranked second in DVOA through Week 11 of that season. The Chargers had a 16-0 lead early in the third quarter, but the Colts fought back to take a 17-16 lead near the end of the third quarter. Then the Colts had a hard time moving the ball in the fourth quarter, while the Chargers got a field goal, then an 83-yard touchdown run from backup running back Michael Turner. Manning threw a pick on the next drive, and that was it for the Colts' undefeated season.

With Manning on the bench to rest up for the playoffs, the Colts also lost their next game to Seattle, but backup Jim Sorgi led them to a win over Arizona in Week 17. Despite two games of Sorgi, the Colts led the league in DVOA for the season. But the wild-card Steelers, who finished fourth in DVOA, upset them in the divisional round to end the Colts' Super Bowl hopes. The 2005 Colts faced the easiest schedule on their way to 10-0, according to average DVOA of opponent. Five of the Colts' first 10 opponents in 2005 ranked in the bottom 10 of DVOA: San Francisco (32), Houston twice (31), St. Louis (28) and Tennessee (23). The Colts didn't face as many bad teams as this year's Steelers have, but San Francisco, the worst team in DVOA history, really drags the average down.
 
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8. 2015 New England Patriots


DVOA through 10 games: 33.7% (1st)
First loss: Game 11, 30-24 to Denver Broncos (8-2)
Final results: 12-4, lost AFC Championship (22.6% DVOA, 6th)

This is the first team on our list that really crashed out after a 10-0 start. It started with a 30-24 overtime loss in Denver to the Brock Osweiler-led Broncos. Osweiler led an 83-yard touchdown drive with 2:31 left in the fourth quarter to put Denver on top. Tom Brady got the ball back with 1:09 left and took the Patriots 51 yards for a tying Stephen Gostkowski field goal. But the Broncos' stellar defense forced the Patriots to go three-and-out to start overtime (there was a Von Miller sack, of course) and then C.J. Anderson took a handoff 48 yards on third-and-1 to win the game.

The Broncos loss started a string in which the Patriots lost four of their final six games of the regular season. Three of those were one-score losses -- the Jets also beat them in overtime -- and the one double-digit loss came when they lost to 5-10 Miami in Week 17. That loss cost the Patriots the No. 1 seed in the AFC. The Broncos had the head-to-head tiebreaker, and it came back to bite the Patriots when they lost the AFC Championship Game in Denver.



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9. 2009 New Orleans Saints


DVOA through 10 games: 33.2% (3rd)
First loss: Game 14, 24-17 to Dallas Cowboys (8-5)
Final results: 13-3, won Super Bowl (25.2% DVOA, 6th)



Here's another team that took a downturn after a 10-0 start, although it took an upturn once it got to the postseason. And the downturn really came after the Saints' 11-0 start, because they beat the Patriots handily in Week 12, 38-17. But the Saints' next two wins after that came by a field goal each, followed by three straight losses.

The first loss was nationally televised on a Saturday night, a home game against Tony Romo and the Cowboys. Dallas got out to a 24-3 lead and took that into the fourth quarter, when the Saints finally got the ball moving and scored two touchdowns. Nick Folk missed a 24-yard field goal that would have iced the game for Dallas, giving the Saints the ball back with 2:16 left. Drew Brees moved the ball all the way to the Dallas 42, but got strip-sacked by DeMarcus Ware with 12 seconds left to end the game.

The next week, the Saints blew a 17-0 lead and lost to Tampa Bay in overtime. Brees sat in Week 17, and the Saints lost to Carolina. But the Saints reversed the losing in the playoffs with a big win over Arizona, an overtime thriller against Minnesota and then their Super Bowl XLIV victory over Indianapolis.



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10. 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers


DVOA through 10 games: 27.8% (3rd)
First loss/final results: To be determined



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11. 2008 Tennessee Titans


DVOA through 10 games: 27.6% (2nd)
First loss: Game 11, 34-13 to New York Jets (7-3)
Final results: 13-3, lost divisional round (24.2% DVOA, 5th)

Before the current Steelers, the Titans had the worst offense of any recent 10-0 team. With Kerry Collins at quarterback, they ranked just 13th in offensive DVOA after 11 weeks. Still, only the 9-1 New York Giants were better in DVOA after Week 11 of the 2008 season.

The first Titans loss was pretty substantial, a 34-13 drubbing by Brett Favre and the Jets. (Remember when Favre played for the Jets? That really happened!) The Titans ended up losing two more games during the regular season: a narrow 13-12 loss to Houston and a 23-0 Indianapolis win in Week 17 in which both teams sat starters. In the playoffs, they hosted the Baltimore Ravens, who ended the season a little higher in DVOA (third). The Titans outgained the Ravens 391 yards to 211 but turned the ball over three times, leading to a 13-10 loss.



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12. 2015 Carolina Panthers


DVOA through 10 games: 27.3% (4th)
First loss: Game 15, 20-13 to Atlanta Falcons (7-7)
Final results: 15-1, lost Super Bowl (25.5% DVOA, 4th)

The 2015 Panthers resembled the current Steelers because they almost rode close wins and an easy schedule to an undefeated season. Carolina started 14-0, but it ranked 29th in schedule strength at that point and had five wins by less than a touchdown. (Without opponent adjustments, the Panthers would have finished the season No. 1 in DVOA.) The Panthers finally lost in Atlanta in Week 16, the only regular-season game all year in which they failed to score 20 points. Atlanta took a 14-10 lead on a 70-yard Julio Jones touchdown in the third quarter and then solidified the win with two late field goals. Cam Newton had only 142 yards passing in the contest.

In the playoffs, Carolina had a close win over Seattle and then blew out Arizona in the NFC Championship with one of the most impressive single-game ratings in DVOA history. But the offense couldn't move the ball against the suffocating Denver defense, and the Panthers lost Super Bowl 50.



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13. 2011 Green Bay Packers


DVOA through 10 games: 26.7% (2nd)
First loss: Game 14, 19-14 to Kansas City Chiefs (5-8)
Final results: 15-1, lost divisional round (26.2% DVOA, 2nd)

The 2011 Packers were the opposite of this year's Steelers. They had the best offense in the NFL through 10 games but were poor on defense, just 28th in DVOA. Green Bay's wins included a 42-34 shootout with New Orleans and a 45-38 barnburner against San Diego. Their DVOA was lower than expected because they played the second-easiest schedule in the league through 10 games, although just four of their wins were within a touchdown. Meanwhile, the 7-3 Houston Texans, with a defense led by rookie J.J. Watt, were the No. 1 team in DVOA through Week 11.

The Packers won three more games to start 13-0 before they finally fell to the Chiefs. Surprisingly, it wasn't the defense that let them down as much as the offense, which managed a season-low 14 points and 315 yards in a 19-14 loss. The Packers finished the season 15-1, even winning their final regular-season game with backup Matt Flynn under center. But in their first playoff game, the 15-1 Packers were shocked by the Giants, who had finished just 9-7 and 12th in DVOA. The Giants scored 37 against that subpar Packers defense and somehow coaxed the Packers into four turnovers, eventually going on to win Super Bowl XLVI.



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14. 1990 San Francisco 49ers


DVOA through 10 games: 21.6% (7)
First loss: Game 11, 28-17 to Los Angeles Rams (3-7)
Final results: 14-2, lost NFC Championship (18.8% DVOA, 7th)


This is a surprising result if we're asking which team had the most "fraudulent" 10-0 start. After all, the 49ers were coming off back-to-back Super Bowl titles and had some guy named Joe Montana playing quarterback. And yet, it's pretty clear the 49ers had the weakest 10-0 start of all teams since 1985.

The 49ers' schedule for their 10-0 start was the second easiest of that season, and the fourth easiest of the 14 teams listed here. Their record was riddled with close wins over bad teams. Five of the 49ers' 10 wins came by less than a touchdown, including 24-20 over the Packers (who finished 6-10) and 20-17 over the Browns (who finished 3-13). Six different teams had a better DVOA after Week 11, and the 49ers were way behind the 10-0 Giants and 9-1 Bears, who each had DVOA over 40%.

The 49ers' first loss was a shocker, coming at home to a bad Rams team that pulled out to a 21-7 lead. The 49ers pulled to within 21-17 but couldn't score in the fourth quarter, and lost 28-17. They turned the ball over six times in the game, with three fumbles and three Montana interceptions. And remember that big game with the Giants in which both teams lost before they would have met at 11-0 on "Monday Night Football?" The 49ers did pull off a close win in the big Week 13 showdown with the Giants, 7-3. Then the Giants got their revenge in the NFC Championship Game, 15-13, when New York famously knocked Montana out of the game.





Can Pittsburgh finish undefeated?



The good news for Pittsburgh fans is the Steelers are playing their best football now. Their four best performances by single-game DVOA have come over the past six games. But an undefeated season is very difficult. There's a reason that only one of the 13 teams listed above was able to finish the job and complete a 16-0 regular season. The Steelers still have four games left against teams in the AFC playoff race (although our metrics are not high on the Cleveland Browns, who rank only 22nd in DVOA). As past 10-0 teams demonstrate, even losing teams can hand an undefeated team its first loss. A Washington win over Pittsburgh is unlikely, but it's not impossible. A Cincinnati win is even more unlikely, but even that's not impossible.

Right now, Football Outsiders has Pittsburgh finishing the season 16-0 in 15.7% of our simulations. Here's a look at our current chances for Pittsburgh winning each game:



  • Week 12 vs. Baltimore: 68%
  • Week 13 vs. Washington: 84%
  • Week 14 at Buffalo: 59%
  • Week 15 at Cincinnati: 88%
  • Week 16 vs. Indianapolis: 66%
  • Week 17 at Cleveland: 71%


Note that these odds incorporate the usual historical home-field advantage even though home-field advantage has been much smaller over the past two seasons. Also, the Baltimore odds do not incorporate any chance of the Ravens losing players Thursday night to positive COVID-19 tests or close contacts; we know already that the Ravens' have lost running backs Mark Ingram and J.K. Dobbins.

The other problem for Pittsburgh: A perfect regular season doesn't guarantee a 19-0 perfect season with a Super Bowl title. Three of the four teams in NFL history with a perfect regular season didn't win the championship, including not just the 2007 Patriots but the 1934 and 1942 Bears. Even in simulations in which the Steelers go 16-0, we have them making it to the Super Bowl only half the time, and winning the Super Bowl 22.5% of the time.

The 2020 Pittsburgh Steelers certainly look very good, and they're in the driver's seat for the AFC's No. 1 seed. But there's still a lot of season left and a championship is far from guaranteed. They're certainly high in the mix for Super Bowl XLV, and there's not much more fans can ask for at this point in the season.
 
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College Football Playoff rankings: What each contender is hoping for, and afraid of

The College Football Playoff selection committee has eight undefeated Power 5 teams to compare in its first of five rankings -- and half of them are in the Pac-12, which began its season in November and has a much smaller sample.

Add undefeated BYU and Cincinnati to the debate -- and don't forget Northwestern! -- and Tuesday's Top 25 reveal (7 p.m. ET/ESPN) could get interesting. The first ranking gives fans, coaches and teams insight into where contenders stand at the onset, how much work they have to do and what factors carry weight with this particular group of committee members.

Will they honor the head-to-head result of Texas A&M over Florida, or will Kyle Trask's recent performances be too impressive to ignore? Will Ohio State pass the so-called "eye test" after surrendering three turnovers and allowing almost 500 passing yards? Will the committee value Cincinnati's résumé enough to put the Bearcats on the bubble ahead of one-loss Power 5 teams?

About the only guarantee is that somebody's going to be angry. Somebody is always angry with this subjective system, and with the uneven schedules to compare, it's going to be more difficult to rank teams, let alone justify decisions. The CFP released a document on Sunday to help explain how the committee will evaluate teams in the midst of a pandemic:

"The more games played, the more chances a team has to prove itself to the committee. If the committee feels the 7-1 team has more quality wins despite one loss, it will factor that into its rankings. If it feels the 3-0 team's undefeated start is more impressive, it will factor that into its rankings."

Here's a look at what each of the top teams should be hoping for -- and what might give them cause for concern.


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Alabama (7-0)
AP Ranking: No. 1

What they're hoping for: The No. 1 spot. Seeding does matter, as the No. 1 team faces the No. 4 team in a semifinal, and when assigning teams to the semifinal locations (the Rose and Sugar bowls this year), the committee will not put the top team at a geographic disadvantage. The committee considers convenience of travel for fans and general familiarity with the host city and its stadium.

They should be concerned if: There shouldn't be any surprises here. Bama is No. 2 in strength of record and has two wins against ranked opponents (Texas A&M and Georgia). Nobody has been as consistently good.

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Notre Dame (8-0)
AP Ranking: No. 2

What they're hoping for: The No. 1 spot. Although Alabama is likely to get the nod, it's possible that the committee could reward the Irish for what appears to be the best win in the country so far: Notre Dame's 47-40 double-overtime win against Clemson.

They should be concerned if: North Carolina isn't ranked. Clemson is Notre Dame's only ranked opponent to this point. But the Irish face the Tar Heels on Friday in their biggest test before a potential rematch with the Tigers in the ACC title game. A one-loss Notre Dame team -- whether it loses to UNC and rebounds to win the ACC or loses the Clemson rematch -- will have a strong playoff case. But either way, the Irish want the Tar Heels to be as highly regarded as possible.

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Ohio State (4-0)
AP Ranking: No. 3

What they're hoping for: Ohio State should be happy with the No. 3 spot, considering the defensive struggles and turnovers in Saturday's win against Indiana. The Buckeyes haven't looked as good as Alabama, and their schedule wasn't as difficult as Notre Dame's to this point.

They should be concerned if: They're looking up at a one-loss Clemson team from the No. 4 spot. Ohio State has the brand, and it has the undefeated record, but it doesn't have the résumé. The Buckeyes' opponents are a combined 6-13 -- and four of those wins belong to Indiana. No other opponent is above .500. Clemson's defense also has been more consistent than Ohio State's. Why does the No. 4 spot matter? Well, look at who's probably No. 1.

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Clemson (7-1)
AP Ranking: No. 4

What they're hoping for: To be the committee's best one-loss team. It's a good thing the group considers the entire body of work because Trevor Lawrence hasn't played in a game since Oct. 24. Clemson hasn't won a game since Halloween, when it beat Boston College 34-28. The Tigers flew to Tallahassee to play FSU this weekend -- with Lawrence -- and then flew home after the game was postponed because of COVID-19 issues. Clemson is ranked in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive efficiency and has a win against what should be a ranked Miami team.

They should be concerned if: Undefeated Cincinnati is at No. 5. That would indicate that the Bearcats have an honest-to-goodness shot at this thing, and you can throw out your preconceived notions about college football's pecking order. According to the Allstate Playoff Predictor, Cincinnati has a better chance (35%) to reach the playoff than Clemson (34%). The final piece of the puzzle is the conference championship game, though, and that would likely seal the deal for Clemson.

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Texas A&M (5-1)
AP Ranking: No. 5

What they're hoping for: The No. 5 spot. Texas A&M needs the committee to honor its head-to-head win over Florida, even though the Aggies haven't played in two weeks because of contact tracing. If Florida can win the SEC and hand Alabama a loss and Clemson can knock off Notre Dame in the ACC title game, there could be enough chaos above the Aggies to at least get them into the conversation.

They should be concerned if: Cincinnati and/or Florida are ranked ahead of them. The Aggies are long shots to begin with, but if they aren't ranked ahead of a team they beat, it would further diminish the very accomplishment that could provide their best hope of sneaking in. If Cincinnati is ranked ahead of Texas A&M, it would send a clear message that the committee is not impressed by the Aggies' résumé. Their only win against a team with a winning record? Florida.

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Florida (6-1)
AP Ranking: No. 6

What they're hoping for: That the eye test prevails. Florida's best win is against Georgia, the only opponent over .500 that the Gators have beaten. But man, has Kyle Trask played well. The committee also will consider that some of his stats came against 0-7 Vanderbilt. Florida has won four straight games since losing 41-38 at Texas A&M on Oct. 10. Have the Gators done enough to nullify the head-to-head result?

They should be concerned if: Florida doesn't have much to worry about because it's leading the SEC East and has a chance to win the conference title. As long as that scenario exists, the Gators can finish in the top four, regardless of where they start in the committee's Top 25.


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Cincinnati (8-0)
AP Ranking: No. 7

What they're hoping for: History. The Bearcats are looking to become the first team from a Group of 5 conference to earn a top-four spot, but it's probably not going to happen tonight. It could be a different and more difficult debate if Cincinnati finishes as an undefeated AAC champion and teams ranked ahead of the Bearcats eventually lose, but anything above the No. 5 spot right now would be a surprise. The question is if the committee will reward Cincinnati's résumé. Florida has one win against a team above .500 (Georgia). A&M's only win against a team with a winning record was against Florida. Cincinnati is No. 4 in strength of record.

They should be concerned if: They're stuck behind one-loss teams, if they're outside of the top 10 and/or if they're behind undefeated BYU and Pac-12 teams. There's a lot to potentially worry about. How big is the hill the Bearcats have to climb? A New Year's Six bowl is probably the most likely conclusion, but Tuesday will reveal a lot about the Bearcats' true ceiling.

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BYU (9-0)
AP Ranking: No. 8

What they're hoping for: To be the highest-ranked team outside of the Power 5 conferences. BYU's weak schedule likely is going to hold it back, but how much will that weigh down the Cougars? It would be surprising if they are ranked ahead of undefeated Cincinnati, but it would also speak volumes about the respect the committee has for the team, which is deep, talented and led by a Heisman hopeful quarterback in Zach Wilson.

They should be concerned if: They aren't in the top 12 and/or they sink below Oregon. While reaching the playoff might be an unattainable goal this season, earning a New Year's Six bid is not -- unless BYU isn't in the top 12, which would be a direct indictment of its schedule. If the Cougars are sitting behind Oregon, that's one more potential Power 5 conference champion in their way.

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Oregon (3-0)
AP Ranking: No. 9

What they're hoping for: A top-10 start. The Ducks have played only three games and no ranked opponents, and they were fortunate on Saturday to beat a UCLA team that didn't have its starting quarterback. Naturally, Oregon is playing from behind, and that should be reflected in the ranking.

They should be concerned if: They're stuck behind both BYU and Cincinnati. That doesn't bode well for the entire Pac-12 or a top-four finish, but adding a conference title can drastically change the picture, and BYU as an independent won't have the opportunity to do that. Cincinnati will, though, and with more games, it could make a stronger case.

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Northwestern (5-0)
AP Ranking: No. 11

What they're hoping for: A top-10 start. After beating Wisconsin on Saturday and taking the lead in the Big Ten's West division, Northwestern is on track to play for the Big Ten conference title. The Wildcats now have a better win than any opponent BYU, Miami or Oregon has defeated. Northwestern now has the best strength of record in the country. An average Top 25 team would have had a 9% chance to record the 5-0 record that the Wildcats have against the teams they faced. Will the committee reward that with a top-10 spot?

They should be concerned if: They're trailing BYU, Cincinnati and Oregon. Northwestern has a chance to win the Big Ten, and a title can change everything, but it also doesn't guarantee anything. The Wildcats will not only need to keep winning, but they'll also need even more upsets. It's not impossible, though -- and the Big Ten has proven that. In 2014, Ohio State was ranked No. 16 in the committee's initial ranking. Not only did they finish in the top four, but the Buckeyes also won it all.

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USC (3-0)
AP Ranking: No. 19

What they're hoping for: More respect from the selection committee than they're getting from the Associated Press poll voters, who have USC behind Coastal Carolina, Marshall and a jumble of two-loss teams. Although USC hasn't dominated anyone yet, it has won two road games and is No. 8 in strength of record. The Trojans aren't going to get a chance to really impress the committee until the Pac-12 title game -- if they make it.

They should be concerned if: They're ranked behind two-loss teams, especially Oklahoma and Iowa State, which both have a chance to win the Big 12. Is the gap between the Pac-12's top-ranked team and its second-best team really as wide as the AP poll indicates? If the committee agrees, would a conference championship be enough to close it?
 
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