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goatmane said:
Anybody got this?

Ranking MJ's Bulls and the greatest NBA dynasties of all time
Ranking Michael Jordan's Bulls and the greatest NBA dynasties ever
Click to expand...
How it works
The biggest challenge of rating dynasties is how to account for reigns of different lengths without using an arbitrary cutoff, like best five seasons.

To set the bar for great teams, I came up with a "replacement level" for each season, equivalent to a modern team winning 55 games and losing in the second round of the playoffs. Any performance above this added to a team's "dynasty points" (while a score below it subtracts from them until they reach zero). I then picked each team's highest overall cumulative score from across their run to represent the dynasty.

Each team's season rating is based on a combination of how well the team played in the regular season and how far it advanced in the playoffs relative to the size of the league. So, for instance, winning 65 games is better than winning 60, and winning the title in a 30-team NBA means a little more than winning when the league had fewer teams.

To calculate the score for each season, the first step is finding the average of a team's regular-season win percentage and the percentage of teams that did not advance as far in the playoffs. A current champion scores a .97 rating for playoff performance because it outperformed 29 of the other 30 teams, while a first-round loser scores a .47. In an eight-team league, however, winning a championship is worth just a .875 rating.

As an example, let's use the 1997-98 Bulls:

  • Step 1: Those Bulls averaged a .861 rating between their .765 winning percentage in the regular season and their .965 playoff score.
  • Step 2: Add a .075 bonus for repeating as champions, a sign of teams that have truly dominated the league over multiple seasons. This makes the Bulls' total rating .936, or .94.
  • Step 3: Subtract the replacement level (.7) from the team's rating for each season to get its season score, which is .24 for the 1997-98 Bulls -- third among their championship seasons.
  • Step 4: Add that to the team's dynasty rating entering the season. That gives us the Bulls' final dynasty score of 1.35.
Now, on to where that ranks all time ...







Honorable mention

The 2000s Pistons aren't a classic dynasty, boasting only a single championship, but their six consecutive conference finals appearances rank second since the ABA-NBA merger behind the 1980s Lakers.

The Kobe Bryant-led Lakers did win back-to-back titles and reached three consecutive Finals but quickly flamed out thereafter, getting swept out of the 2011 playoffs in the conference semifinals by the eventual champion Dallas Mavericks.

Led by Julius Erving, the Sixers lost in the Finals three times before finally breaking through with newcomer Moses Malone in 1983, going 12-1 in the "Fo', Fo', Fo'" postseason.







10. 1987-91 Detroit Pistons (0.53 dynasty)

  • Championships: 2
  • Finals appearances: 3
  • Regular-season winning%: .678
The "Bad Boys" bridged the gap between the Boston Celtics and Los Angeles Lakers dynasties of the 1980s and the Bulls in the 1990s, pushing aside Boston (in 1988) and the Lakers (in 1989) before being swept out of dynasty-dom by Chicago in the 1991 conference finals.

In between, the Pistons came within a win of three consecutive championships. Their dynasty score is held back by a relatively short peak and middling regular-season performance over that span compared to other back-to-back champs.







9. 2011-14 Miami Heat (0.61)

  • Championships: 2
  • Finals appearances: 4
  • Regular-season winning%: .718
Yes, the "Big Three" Heat fell short of LeBron James' anticipatory boasts of "Not one, not two, not three, not four, not five, not six, not seven ..." championships, settling for two of them.

Still, Miami's run before James returned to Cleveland was surpassed over a four-year span by only four teams on this list. (Among the top five, the '80s Celtics were the one that never had a four-year stretch that rated this well.) That merits the Heat a spot among the NBA's top dynasties.







8. 1949-54 Minneapolis Lakers (0.65)

  • Championships: 5
  • Finals appearances: 5
  • Regular-season winning%: .676
The Lakers boast the league's first dynasty in their ancestral home of Minneapolis. After moving from the NBL to the BAA in 1948-49, the year before the leagues merged to become the NBA, the Lakers won five championships in a six-year span that is recognized as part of NBA history.

With basketball's first superstar in George Mikan, Minneapolis also took the 1948 NBL title, which is not reflected in these rankings.







7. 1998-2004 Los Angeles Lakers (0.75)

  • Championships: 3
  • Finals appearances: 4
  • Regular-season winning%: .699
After an up-and-down 1990s, the Lakers' new dynasty began in earnest when Phil Jackson took over as head coach ahead of the 1999-2000 season and immediately led the team to three consecutive championships led by the superstar duo of Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant.

The Shaq-Kobe pairing proved short-lived, as tensions led to O'Neal's trade after a loss in the 2004 Finals to Detroit. At their best, specifically a 15-1 postseason run to the 2001 championship, these Lakers were as good as any team in league history.







6. 2001-17 San Antonio Spurs (0.85)

  • Championships: 4
  • Finals appearances: 5
  • Regular-season winning%: .716
San Antonio's run of nearly two decades is unlike any other in these rankings, with only coach Gregg Popovich linking the entire era. Technically, the Spurs don't get credit for their 1999 championship here because of a first-round exit the following season (with San Antonio keeping a young Tim Duncan on the bench after a meniscus tear rather than pushing him to play through it). Still, San Antonio's run encompasses four more seasons than Bill Russell's Celtics and 13 more than the shortest dynasty on this list.

Amazingly, the Spurs managed a .700-plus winning percentage over that entire period, which featured a couple of different peaks. After losing to the Lakers in the 2008 Western Conference finals, they would have ranked seventh on this list, while their second sustained run from 2010-11 through 2016-17 would narrowly miss it.







5. 2015-19 Golden State Warriors (0.92)

  • Championships: 3
  • Finals appearances: 5
  • Regular-season winning%: .785
The Warriors still have a chance to move up this leaderboard, though a lottery-bound 2019-20 season will severely hamper their score. For now, this is the briefest dynasty in the top eight of the rankings, a testament to how thoroughly Golden State dominated the league in the first five years after Steve Kerr's arrival as head coach of a team that had won two playoff series in the previous 23 seasons.

Given that the Warriors' two series losses both came in the Finals, one in an epic seven-game series and the other with stars Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson both succumbing to severe injuries, they narrowly missed jumping up to fourth place on this list.









4. 1980-88 Boston Celtics (0.96)

  • Championships: 3
  • Finals appearances: 5
  • Regular-season winning %: .745
Before heel surgeries limited Larry Bird's 1988-89 season to just six games, the Celtics were neck and neck with the Lakers for the dynasty of the 1980s thanks to a superior record in the regular season. Three factors ultimately differentiated the two teams: the Lakers' superior longevity and their more consistent trips to the Finals, as well as a 2-1 advantage in the head-to-head series.

In the loaded East, the Celtics had a tougher time getting past first the Philadelphia 76ers and later the Pistons to reach the Finals. But once there, they added three more banners to the crowded rafters of the old Boston Garden.









3. 1980-91 Los Angeles Lakers (1.25)

  • Championships: 5
  • Finals appearances: 9
  • Regular-season winning%: .724
In a modern context, it will be difficult for any team to top the Lakers' nine trips to the Finals in 12 years before Magic Johnson's first retirement. The Lakers made a series of transitions seamlessly, first from Jack McKinney to Paul Westhead to most famously Pat Riley on the sidelines and then from building around Kareem Abdul-Jabbar to Magic as team leader.

Though the core was aging by that point, it's possible the Lakers could have added more Finals appearances if not for Johnson being diagnosed as HIV-positive after a five-game loss to the Bulls in 1991. Lakers fans can also lament a missed opportunity at a three-peat in 1989 when Johnson was limited to 75 minutes and backcourt mate Byron Scott did not play at all in a Finals sweep at the hands of the Detroit Pistons.









2. 1989-98 Chicago Bulls (1.35)

  • Championships: 6
  • Finals appearances: 6
  • Regular-season winning%: .738
What's remarkable about the Bulls' pair of three-peats is how much turnover there was between them. Stars Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen, along with coach Phil Jackson, were the lone constants. Every other spot on the roster turned over between Chicago beating Phoenix in the 1993 NBA Finals and returning there to beat Seattle in 1996.

That's a testament to a pair of things: the strength of the Bulls' core, led by perhaps the greatest player and greatest coach in league history, and also GM Jerry Krause's ability to keep the roster from stagnating with shrewd additions headlined by sixth man Toni Kukoc and Dennis Rodman.

On their own, each three-peat would rank among the top 10 dynasties. Together, they're second overall.







1. 1957-69 Boston Celtics (1.66)
  • Championships: 11
  • Finals appearances: 12
  • Regular-season winning%: .705
Granted, conditions were favorable for a dynasty in the pre-expansion NBA. Eight of the Celtics' 11 championships came with fewer than 10 teams in the league, and legendary coach Red Auerbach never had to worry about a salary cap or Bill Russell taking his talents to South Beach.

Still, we've never seen a run in any pro sport like Boston's 11 titles in 13 seasons, led by Russell. Even without the bonus for repeat championships, the Celtics would still come out on top of this list.
 
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TUA TAGOVAILOA said:
2021 NBA mock draft: How this year's draft decisions change the next class
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2021 NBA mock draft: How this year's draft decisions change the next class


NBA scouts were significantly more excited about next year's draft than this June's class even before the coronavirus pandemic brought enough uncertainty to cause several prospects to decline entering their names in the 2020 draft.

Headlined by two potential franchise players in Cade Cunningham and Jalen Green, who both would have likely been top picks in this year's draft, the 2021 draft has considerable star power. It also has more depth than usual, as several players who would have been candidates to hear their names called on draft night this year decided to withdraw due to the uncertainty around what the pre-draft process will look like.

Note: Any player who has publicly made himself eligible for the 2020 NBA draft was not considered for this mock.


2021 NBA mock draft
Pick Team HT POS Age
1. Cade Cunningham Oklahoma State 6-7 PG 18.5
2. Jalen Green G League Select 6-5 SG 18.2
3. Evan Mobley USC 7-0 PF/C 18.8
4. Jonathan Kuminga 6-7 SF 17.5
5. Ziaire Williams Stanford 6-8 SG/SF 18.6
6. Jalen Johnson Duke 6-8 PF 18.3
7. Usman Garuba Real Madrid 6-8 PF 18.1
8. B.J. Boston Kentucky 6-7 SG/SF 18.4
9. Greg Brown Texas 6-8 PF 18.6
10. Terrence Clarke Kentucky 6-6 SG/SF 18.6
11. Caleb Love North Carolina 6-3 PG 18.5
12. Daishen Nix UCLA 6-4 PG 18.2
13. Keon Johnson Tennessee 6-5 SG 18.1
14. Scottie Barnes Florida State 6-8 PF 18.6
15. Jalen Suggs Gonzaga 6-4 SG 18.8
16. Josh Christopher Arizona State 6-5 SG/SF 18.3
17. David Johnson Louisville 6-5 PG 19.1
18. Josh Primo Alabama 6-5 SG 17.3
19. Juhann Begarin Paris Basket 6-6 SG 17.7
20. Earl Timberlake Miami 6-6 SF 18.4
21. DJ Steward Duke 6-3 PG 18.5
22. Keyontae Johnson Florida 6-5 SF 20.9
23. Scottie Lewis Florida 6-5 SG/SF 20.1
24. Ibou Dianko Badji Barcelona 7-1 C 17.5
25. Roko Prkacin Cibona Zagreb 6-9 PF 17.4
26. James Bouknight Connecticut 6-4 SG 19.6
27. Cam Thomas LSU 6-4 SG 18.5
28. Jaden Springer Tennessee 6-4 PG/SG 17.5
29. Moses Moody Arkansas 6-6 SG 17.9
30. Ariel Hukporti Ludwigsburg 7-0 C 18.0
31. Wendell Moore Duke 6-6 SF 18.6
32. Adam Miller Illinois 6-3 SG 18.2
33. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl Villanova 6-9 PF 19.4
34. Matthew Hurt Duke 6-9 PF 20.0
35. Terrence Shannon Texas Tech 6-6 SG/SF 19.7
36. Romeo Weems DePaul 6-6 SF 18.8
37. DJ Carton Marquette 6-2 PG 19.7
38. Franz Wagner Michigan 6-8 SF 18.6
39. Amar Sylla Oostende 6-9 PF/C 18.5
40. Marcus Garrett Kansas 6-5 PG/SG 21.4
41. Sam Williamson Louisville 6-7 SF 19.6
42. Khalifa Diop Gran Canaria 6-11 C 18.2
43. Trayce Jackson-Davis Indiana 6-9 PF 20.1
44. Isaiah Todd G League Select 6-10 PF 18.5
45. Carlos Alocen Real Madrid 6-5 PG 19.3
46. Ochai Agbaji Kansas 6-5 SG/SF 20.0
47. Mario Nakic Real Madrid 6-8 SF 18.8
48. Taevion Kinsey Marshall 6-5 SG 20.1
49. Ismael Kamagate Paris Basket 6-11 C 19.2
50. Oscar Tshiebwe West Virginia 6-9 C 20.4
51. D.J. Jeffries Memphis 6-7 SF 20.3
52. Josiah James Tennessee 6-6 SG 19.6
53. Malcolm Cazalon Mega Bemax 6-6 SG 18.6
54. Marcus Zegarowski Creighton 6-2 PG 21.7
55. Will Richardson Oregon 6-4 SG 20.6
56. Isaac Likekele Oklahoma State 6-4 PG/SG 20.1
57. Paul Scruggs Xavier 6-3 PG/SG 22.1
58. Colbey Ross Pepperdine 6-1 PG 21.5
59. Olle Lundqvist Real Canoe 6-7 SG/SF 20.4
60. Nahziah Carter Washington 6-6 SG/SF 20.6




Biggest decisions that have already been made
Players who announced they are not declaring for the 2020 NBA draft

The typical pre-draft process involves substantial commercial travel for both NBA executives and prospects. With the limitations that are likely to be in place because of the risks associated with COVID-19, NBA front offices have been preparing to make decisions about prospects without access to workouts, a combine or pro days.

This limited process is something younger fringe prospects weren't excited about, and it caused many to choose to return to school or elect to proceed with more caution.

David Johnson | 6-foot-5 | Fr. | PG | Louisville | No. 17 in 2021

Johnson made a logical decision to return to Louisville, as he averaged only 16 minutes per game as a freshman after suffering a torn labrum in July that knocked him out of the Cardinals' rotation until mid-December. He had an eye-opening performance in a road win at Duke but was streaky overall, despite dropping glimpses of potential. Johnson is one of the most athletic freshman guards in the country, and he has the type of ballhandling creativity you can't teach. Plus, he's only 18 years old.

Keyontae Johnson | 6-foot-5 | So. | SF | Florida | No. 22 in 2021

Johnson is a prime example of the effects of the pandemic. He was a projected early-second-round pick who likely would have made a strong case for himself as a first-rounder in the postseason tourneys and pre-draft process. He didn't start the season on any draft boards but piqued NBA scouts' interest with a sophomore campaign that earned him first-team all-SEC honors. He'll return to school, along with most of Florida's roster, in hopes of making a deep NCAA tournament run next season that could propel him into the first round.

Scottie Lewis | 6-foot-5 | Fr. | SG/SF | Florida | No. 23 in 2021

Lewis started the season projected as a lottery pick, but a disappointing season dropped him out of our first-round projections. Workouts could have helped him demonstrate the type of length, athleticism, defensive versatility and perimeter shooting that caused scouts to be excited about the former top-10 recruit.

James Bouknight | 6-foot-4 | Fr. | SG | UConn | No. 26 in 2021

Bouknight hit his stride in the last two months of his freshman season and looked like one of the better scoring guards in the country, helping him win AAC all-conference honors. With upperclassmen moving on, Bouknight should have the keys to the Huskies' offense as a sophomore, giving him a chance to break out as an NBA prospect and solidify his standing as a first-round pick.

Wendell Moore | 6-foot-6 | Fr. | SF | Duke | No. 31 in 2021

Matthew Hurt | 6-foot-9 | Fr. | PF | Duke | No. 34 in 2021

Duke's pair of McDonald's All Americans had underwhelming seasons relative to expectations, making the decision to return a straightforward one. With no signs of a dominant big man on next season's roster, expect Duke to play a wide-open, perimeter-oriented style, which should benefit Moore and Hurt.

Moore made only four 3-pointers all season, something that will have to improve for him to keep his stock in first-round territory. Hurt has a big summer ahead of him in the weight room if he is to become a capable defender and rebounder to complement his excellent perimeter-shooting ability.

Jeremiah Robinson-Earl | 6-foot-9 | Fr. | PF | Villanova | No. 33 in 2021

The Big East freshman of the year had a change of heart after Villanova head coach Jay Wright announced that the forward would test the NBA draft waters, citing complications caused by the pandemic. Now Robinson-Earl will be an early favorite for Big East player of the year as a sophomore. His productivity and team accomplishments will be major keys for his stock. Although lacking extraordinary size, length or athleticism, he has a great feel for the game and brings effort and toughness as a rebounder. Expanding his shooting range will be a key to his outlook, but the 81% he shot from the free throw line leaves room for optimism.

Romeo Weems | 6-foot-6 | Fr. | SF | DePaul | No. 36 in 2021

Playing for a dreadful DePaul team that went 3-15 in the Big East, Weems represented a glimmer of hope for the Blue Demons. He was viewed as a sleeper prospect by forward-thinking NBA scouts searching for 3-and-D prospects. Weems was one of the more versatile and impactful defenders in his class, and he hit 36% from 3. Improving his ballhandling and becoming a more prolific scorer will be the keys for Weems to emerge as a first-rounder next year.

Amar Sylla | 6-foot-9 | Age: 18.5 | PF | Oostende | No. 39 in 2021

Sylla was a likely draft pick in 2020 who now returns to Belgium in hopes of solidifying himself as a first-rounder next season. The Oostende big man won't turn 19 until October, and the development of his frame will play a role in his ability to become a more efficient, productive and consistent player.

Marcus Garrett | 6-foot-5 | Jr. | PG | Kansas | No. 40 in 2021

Ochai Agbaji | 6-foot-5 | So. | SG | Kansas | No. 46 in 2021

The Jayhawks' starting backcourt was set when Garrett and Agbaji elected to pass on the 2020 draft. Both played bit roles offensively behind All-Americans Devon Dotson and Udoka Azubuike and will be asked to fill the scoring void next season.

Garrett, named the Naismith Defensive Player of the Year, emerged as the team's de facto point guard while demonstrating terrific versatility, but he will need to show improvement as a perimeter shooter to hold scouts' interest. Agbaji didn't make the leap some hoped as a sophomore, but his stock is still rising, considering that he was on track to redshirt his freshman season before injuries nixed those plans.

Carlos Alocen | 6-foot-5 | Age: 19.3 | PG | Zaragoza | No. 45 in 2021

Alocen had a good chance to hear his name called in this year's draft after an excellent season as the starting point guard of Zaragoza, currently third in the Spanish ACB. A big guard who plays with flair, Alocen is mature beyond his years, and he has considerable experience under his belt for a teenager. Having already made his debut with the senior national team, he's expected to make his Euroleague debut for the team that owns his rights, Real Madrid. Improving as a perimeter shooter will be a major key for Alocen moving forward.

Other potential 2021 first-rounders who elected not to enter the 2020 NBA draft:

  • Terrence Shannon Jr., 6-foot-6, Fr., SF, Texas Tech
  • D.J. Carton, 6-foot-2, Fr., PG, Marquette (pending waiver)
  • Franz Wagner, 6-foot-9, Fr., SF, Michigan
  • Mario Nakic, 6-foot-8, 18 years old, SG, Real Madrid
  • Trayce Jackson-Davis, 6-foot-9, Fr., C, Indiana
  • Oscar Tshiebwe, 6-foot-9, Fr., C, West Virginia
 
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Ten biggest decisions yet to be made
Players who appear to be maintaining their college eligibility

Although the NBA's Undergraduate Advisory Committee does an admirable job of giving players information about their standing in the eyes of NBA teams, nothing can replicate players actually going through a pre-draft process to see how it all plays out. The pre-draft process has a way of splashing cold water in prospects' faces and giving them a better understanding of where they stand in the pecking order.

Without these benefits, many players will be in the dark when it comes to deciding whether to keep their names in the draft, something the NCAA normally mandates is done 10 days after the NBA combine is completed. With the NBA draft likely to be pushed back, it's unknown when that deadline might be this year, and that is likely to cause consternation in the college ranks.

Considering the abundance of uncertainty, the expectation among NBA teams is for more players to withdraw their names from draft consideration than usual.

Jared Butler | 6-foot-3 | So. | PG | Baylor | No. 41 in 2020

A deep tournament run would have benefited Butler, who had a breakout season as a sophomore on a Baylor team projected to earn a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. No combine, private workouts or medicals puts Butler in a predicament. Considering he is not yet 20 and could return to a Baylor team returning many key pieces, the guard has a difficult decision ahead of him.

Tyrell Terry | 6-foot-2 | Fr. | PG | Stanford | No. 52 in 2020

Terry's attempt to be Stanford's first one-and-done prospect since the Lopez twins in 2007 came as a bit of a surprise, as NBA feedback pegged him as a fringe second-round pick. Weighing only 155 pounds, Terry isn't quite ready to step onto an NBA floor, but his pick-and-roll ability, perimeter shooting and creativity give him a fairly high ceiling. With projected top-five pick Ziaire Williams on the way -- and potential second-round pick Oscar da Silva returning -- Terry might have an opportunity to enter the NBA on a red carpet in 2021.

Aaron Henry | 6-foot-6 | So. | SG/SF | Michigan State | No. 55 in 2020

Henry didn't quite make the jump some hoped between his freshman and sophomore seasons, and he looked comfortable blending in behind All-American candidates Cassius Winston and Xavier Tillman. With those two off to the pros, the Spartans will ask Henry to shoulder a bigger offensive load if he elects to return to school, which should shed plenty of light onto how much upside the toolsy, versatile wing has as a scorer long-term. For now, Henry is testing the NBA waters.

Isaiah Joe | 6-foot-5 | So. | SG | Arkansas | No. 59 in 2020

Joe emerged as one of the best shooters in his class, but he was overshadowed by upperclassmen Mason Jones and Jimmy Whitt Jr., who shouldered the ballhandling responsibilities but are now off to the pro ranks. With Arkansas enrolling one of the top recruiting classes in the country, Joe would be a candidate for preseason SEC player of the year honors if he elects to return.

Corey Kispert | 6-foot-7 | Jr. | SG/SF | Gonzaga | No. 43 in 2020
Filip Petrusev | 7-foot | So. | PF/C | Gonzaga | No. 61 in 2020
Joel Ayayi | 6-foot-5 | RS So. | PG/SG | Gonzaga | Unranked in 2020

All three Bulldogs players announced that they will be testing the NBA draft waters without agents, indicating their openness to returning to Spokane next season.

Kispert appears to have the best chance of hearing his name called this year if he elects to stay in, but not having had the ability to showcase his shot-making ability in the postseason is certainly a hindrance. Petrusev was named West Coast Conference player of the year, but he has work to do on his frame, toughness and perimeter shooting to improve his standing. Ayayi showed flashes of intrigue at times this season but looks to be a ways away from maximizing his stock.

Josh Hall | 6-foot-9 | Sr. (HS) | Moravian Prep, N.C. | No. 63 in 2020

Hall blossomed into a five-star recruit, according to some scouting services, during a post-grad year at Moravian Prep. Off the radar of NBA scouts throughout his career, Hall doesn't have much of a body of work and certainly would have needed private workouts to be more than a second-round flier. With no pre-draft process and the type of frame and skill set that are works in progress, Hall could certainly benefit from enrolling at NC State, where he's currently committed, in order to maximize his draft stock.

Karim Mane | 6-foot-5 | Sr. (HS) | Vanier Prep, Quebec | No. 65 in 2020

Mane appeared on NBA radars by showcasing his impressive physique and skill set at the FIBA U19 World Championships last July. Under the radar in Montreal, he had his season further complicated by injury and the cancellation of the Nike Hoop Summit, to which he was invited. Currently debating offers from Michigan State, Marquette, Memphis and others, Mane might have to go the college route, given the inability to give his stock a jolt with a real pre-draft process.

Feron Hunt | 6-foot-8 | So. | SF/PF | SMU | No. 76 in 2020

Averaging only 11 points and seven rebounds per game, Hunt flew almost entirely under the NBA radar as a sophomore, but he was a candidate to draw considerable intrigue in the pre-draft process, thanks to his impressive physical tools and leaping ability. The Mustangs forward is a consistent jumper away from breaking out as a junior, thus giving him a lot to gain by returning to SMU.

Saben Lee | 6-foot-2 | Jr. | PG | Vanderbilt | No. 78 in 2020

Lee's breakout season at Vanderbilt earned him second-team All-SEC honors, and his tremendous open-court speed made him a candidate to improve his standing at the NBA combine and in private workouts. Improving as a perimeter shooter, after he made just 32% of his 3-pointers this past season, could help his cause as well.

Other potential draft picks who are testing the 2020 NBA draft waters while maintaining college eligibility:

  • John Petty Jr., 6-foot-6, Jr., SF, Alabama, No. 53 prospect
  • Trendon Watford, 6-foot-9, Fr., PF, LSU, No. 72 prospect
  • Makur Maker, 6-foot-11, Sr. (HS), C, Hillcrest Academy, No. 75 prospect
  • Luka Garza, 6-foot-11, Jr., C, Iowa, No. 79 prospect
  • Ayo Dosunmu, 6-foot-4, So., SG, Illinois, No. 80 prospect
  • Jalen Harris, 6-foot-5, RS Jr., SG, Nevada, No. 85 prospect
  • Herbert Jones, 6-foot-8, Jr., SG/SF, Alabama, No. 93 prospect
  • Isaiah Livers, 6-foot-7, Jr., SF/PF, Michigan, No. 96 prospect
 
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beaniemac said:
@Skooby can you do this one?

NBA insiders' eight big rule changes for free agency and the supermax
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Eight proposed rule changes to make NBA salaries and free agency work

While the NBA continues to work out plans to finish the 2019-20 season, the future economics of the league face immense uncertainty.

The league and the players' union will need to make adjustments to the collective bargaining agreement (CBA) and how the business of basketball operates given the projected decline in leaguewide revenue due to the coronavirus pandemic.

What will those changes look like? Here are eight proposed tweaks for next season -- the upcoming offseason and 2020-21 -- based on conversations with front-office executives and player agents, focusing on how to make the salary cap, max contracts and free agency work.


Issues with the current system

If you go by the letter of the CBA, there will be a drastic decline in the projected $115 million salary cap and $139 million luxury tax for 2020-21. One team's front office estimated the cap declining by as much as $25-30 million.

The initial cap projections were based on an expected $8 billion in basketball-related income (BRI), which is now expected to decrease by at least $1 billion and potentially as much as $2 billion. BRI takes into account a wide range of revenue from gate receipts to broadcast rights.

Using the standard salary-cap formula with $6 billion in BRI would have massive implications throughout the league, with the salary cap and tax line for 2020-21 plummeting to $95 million and $115 million, respectively. At least 25 teams would be in the luxury tax -- the most in league history. The Golden State Warriors' projected tax penalty of $45 million would increase to $160 million before 2020 free agency even began.

One executive mentioned that merely leaving the tax line at $139 million, but letting the cap fall, could solve that problem. However, it would not help teams that were planning to use space in free agency.

With only the Atlanta Hawks, Detroit Pistons and potentially the New York Knicks having cap space under this scenario, free agency would essentially be frozen. Almost every player with an option would pick it up, and 2020 free agents would be scrapping for any available money. Players such as Ben Simmons and Pascal Siakam, who agreed to rookie extensions last fall tied to a percentage of the cap, would lose at least $5 million annually.

And if revenue returned to a relative normal level for 2021-22, there could be a dramatic cap spike as in 2016, when the Warriors signed Kevin Durant, sparking issues concerning fairness and competitive balance. That might lead to a flood of players hitting the market in 2021, with 2020 restricted free agents -- such as Brandon Ingram -- looking to sign one-year deals and waiting for a future spending spree.

"The players' association cannot allow the 2020 free-agent class to fall on the sword," one agent told ESPN.

That's why a majority of teams said they expect the league and the union to negotiate new rules.

"The CBA was not built to handle pandemics," commissioner Adam Silver told players on a conference call this week.

And here's what those new rules could look like.


Proposal 1: Increase player escrow to 30%

The current escrow system withholds 10% of player salary. The money is put in an escrow account and ensures that player salaries do not exceed more than 51% of BRI. Teams use the escrow account to bring salaries back into line.

Here's the problem: There already is $3.3 billion in guaranteed salary for next season, plus at least another $500 million coming from free-agent signings, draft picks and waived players. If BRI drops significantly due to canceled games and/or games without fans, then the nearly $400 million in escrow isn't going to come close to evening out the BRI split. In a drastic scenario where BRI drops to $5 billion because the 40% of leaguewide revenue that comes from game nights in arenas disappears, players could end up receiving more than 80% of BRI.

The NBA could create a wider safety net by increasing that escrow withholding to 30%. There's a clause in the CBA stating that if BRI substantially decreases in one year and players receive more than their share, the league and the union "shall negotiate in good faith to agree upon an adjustment [to the CBA] in a manner reasonably satisfactory to the parties to address the issue."

A 30% escrow would give the league a $1.1 billion insurance policy in case revenue does seriously drop. However, that would not solve the cash flow problem facing many teams next season. Unlike the 25% player salary reduction that teams have the discretion to use now, the escrow salary sits in a league account and is not redistributed until after the season is completed.


Proposal 2: Use the 2019-20 salary cap and luxury tax for 2020-21

Multiple team executives said that keeping the cap and tax line at their current numbers of $109 million and $132 million, respectively, would bring a sense of normalcy to the league. Following the 2011 lockout, the league made a similar decision to keep the previous season's cap and tax numbers, even though it was operating under a new CBA.

This strategy ideally would give the NBA time to get its finances in order, with the hope that revenue will return to normal for the 2021-22 season.

An artificially flat cap has some issues, though. Consider these scenarios.

  • Giannis Antetokounmpo will be supermax-eligible at the start of 2020 free agency, whenever it occurs. The Milwaukee Bucks expected to be able to offer him a five-year, $250 million contract -- the largest in league history. That was based on Antetokounmpo being eligible for 35% of a $125 million salary cap for 2021-22. Will Antetokounmpo be as likely to commit to an extension if the league decides to hold the cap at $109 million for multiple years? What if the league provides no clarity on the cap, and Antetokounmpo doesn't know what his actual salary will look like?
  • Something similar goes for Donovan Mitchell and Jayson Tatum, who will be eligible to sign rookie extensions for 25% of the 2021-22 cap. These max-eligible players might be more likely to wait it out or sign short-term deals until the cap situation is more clear.
  • In this week's conference call with players, Silver stressed competitive balance as a priority when navigating potential changes. It would be unfair to put the Bucks, Utah Jazz and Boston Celtics at a disadvantage in retaining star players that did not exist prior to the pandemic.
Holding the cap in place presents these kinds of challenges for long-term team-building. By the start of 2020 free agency, will the NBA have an answer for what the salary cap in 2021-22 projects to be?

And if the cap is flattened, will there be enough revenue for small- and mid-market franchises to spend in free agency and remain competitive? Big-market teams such as the Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Lakers and New York Knicks will have less money to distribute via revenue sharing if there are no fans in arenas. Depleting the traditional revenue-sharing fund could cost teams such as the Charlotte Hornets, Indiana Pacers and Memphis Grizzlies around $20 million annually.

Without a change to the revenue-sharing model -- which is agreed to by the 30 teams and by the league office, not the union -- even reaching the salary floor could be tough for some teams. Which brings us to the next proposal ...


Proposal 3: Reduce the salary floor to 80%

Some front-office executives said that reducing the minimum teams must spend on salary from 90% to 80% of the cap would help teams affected by a lack of revenue-sharing and gate receipts.

For example, including their 2020 draft pick, the Atlanta Hawks have $59 million in committed salary for 2020-21 -- $39 million below the floor. When teams fall short of the salary floor, they are required to pay out the difference to the players on their roster.

A temporary reduction of the salary floor until leaguewide income returns to normal would ease the burden on lower-revenue teams, while players would still receive at least their 51% share of BRI.


Proposal 4: One-year amnesty provision

The amnesty provision introduced in the 2011 CBA allowed teams to waive a player and remove his cap hit from their books, though they were still responsible for paying his salary. A one-year reintroduction of the rule could help cash-strapped teams, especially if the cap drops or remains flat.

Two teams told ESPN that the provision would help a franchise like the Detroit Pistons the most. Blake Griffin will count against their cap for $36.8 million and $38.9 million in the next two seasons. With this proposal, Detroit could amnesty Griffin and have over $50 million in room; without the provision it would have less than $20 million in space under a flat cap.


Proposal 5: Adjust the luxury tax

The league introduced a progressive luxury tax in 2011, with the financial penalties per dollar spent over the tax line increasing the further into the tax a team goes. There are additional penalties for being a repeat tax team in four out of five seasons.

Because there could be 12 tax teams if this year's $132.7 million line holds for 2020-21, executives suggested a few different options here:

1. Keep the projected $139 million tax line no matter what happens to the cap

Under this proposal, teams such as the Bucks, Rockets and Lakers, which were not projected to enter the tax before the hiatus, would remain below the threshold.

It would also soften the blow for tax teams like the Nets, potentially saving Brooklyn more than $20 million in its tax.

2. Modify the repeater tax or tax brackets

Teams that spend more than $132.7 million in salary but stay below $139 million would not be counted as a tax team for the current season. For example, if the Bucks spent $135 million in salary but exceeded the tax limit in the next three seasons, they would not be considered a repeater tax team.

Another solution is to make the tax brackets less harsh. Instead of a team being charged an additional $1.50 for every $1 spent between $0 and $5 million over the tax line, teams would be charged $0.50 for every $1 spent between $0 and $10 million over the line.

3. Eliminate the progressive tax

Prior to the 2013-14 season, teams were charged only $1 for every $1 spent over the tax. By reverting back to that system with a $132.7 million tax threshold, the Philadelphia 76ers would have a $13 million tax bill -- rather than paying $42.7 million if there are no changes at all.

A counterargument here is that tax teams such as Boston, Brooklyn, Golden State and Philadelphia will be rewarded for spending because all four teams are already projected to be in the tax. And, of course, any proposal to cut tax bills means there's less money heading to teams that typically receive these tax funds.

But most executives and agents were in agreement that there are better ways to redistribute money across teams than an unexpectedly punitive tax for one season.
 
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Proposal 6: Cap smoothing

Multiple teams recommended that artificially smoothing the cap over the next three seasons -- the remaining years on this CBA -- could be the best solution for the league and players. This would remove BRI from salary-cap calculations, allowing the league and the union to agree on a set number.

"Spread the pain in revenue loss over four seasons instead of one," one executive told ESPN.

The cap was projected to rise to $115 million in 2020-21, $125 million in 2021-22 and $131 million in 2022-23, with the tax line increasing to $139 million, $151 million and then $159 million.

Here's how one smoothing proposal could look:
  • 2020-21: $112 million cap, $136 million tax
  • 2021-22: $118 million cap, $143 million tax
  • 2022-23: $123 million cap, $150 million tax
This would allow teams to continue to plan for the future without so many unknowns. It would also avoid giving some big-market teams an advantage during a cap-spike season -- the kind of advantage that resulted in 2016 when the league and union couldn't agree to a smoothing proposal after the new national TV deal kicked in.

Under this plan, the Bucks could still offer Antetokounmpo the largest contract in NBA history. Simmons and Siakam would see only slight decreases on their max extensions. Instead of 25 teams being in the luxury tax, only the franchises already clearly headed for the tax would face penalties. Atlanta, Charlotte and Detroit would still have cap space this summer.

One issue with this proposal is that players could end up deflating their own salaries if revenue returns to expected levels in future seasons. Players might end up with less than 51% of the BRI split, unless measures are put in place to return a portion of league revenue to players to keep that split in place.


Proposal 7: Player contracts are counted as percentage of the cap

This drastic scenario would overhaul the entire salary system.

Multiple teams suggested that if the salary cap decreases significantly, then players' cap hits should decrease by a proportionate amount.

For example, if the cap falls to $95 million, Stephen Curry's $43 million contract would count as only $35.4 million for cap and tax purposes. The difference in salary would be put into an escrow account and given back to Curry if BRI for players does not exceed 51%. Doing the same for all Warriors players would leave Golden State with $29 million in tax penalties, rather than $160 million.

The extensions for Simmons and Siakam would count for only $23.8 million next season, but they'd still be able to receive their full $28.8 million amount if the BRI split evens out. The Hawks would have $36 million in 2020 space under a $95 million cap, rather than $48 million in room under a $115 million cap.

This is somewhat similar to the increase in rookie-scale contracts in 2017. Ingram has a $7.2 million cap hit for the Pelicans but actually was scheduled to earn $10.5 million this year.


Proposal 8: Roster expansion

Although teams are allowed to carry 20 players during training camp, they are restricted to 15 players during the regular season, with 13 active for each game. Referencing concerns if players become ill and/or need to isolate for weeks, some team executives are proposing an increase in roster size.

The active list would remain at 13, but the max roster size would increase to 17 under this proposal.

There already is a hardship rule in place in case of injury or illness, but a team can add a 16th player only if four players who are sick or injured miss at least three regular-season games and are deemed out for a minimum of two weeks.

The revised roster rule would allow teams to sign an extra player immediately if needed, but there would be restrictions on the contracts for players taking the 16th and 17th spots. The contract would be for only one year, there would be no guaranteed salary protection and the player would become an unrestricted free agent in the offseason.

Several executives also said they would want to allow players on two-way contracts this season to be playoff-eligible if the season resumes, making Oklahoma City Thunder guard Luguentz Dort eligible for the postseason, for example.
 
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