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Skooby

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College football's top 10 quarterback battles to watch in 2020



The transfer portal has added even more intrigue to the most talked about position in college football.

Three of the four starting quarterbacks in last season's College Football Playoff joined their teams as transfers. The fourth, Clemson's Trevor Lawrence, rose so rapidly as a true freshman that he forced incumbent Kelly Bryant, the reigning ACC offensive player of the year, to transfer to Missouri.

The tracking of quarterback transfers is a subplot of every offseason, and that will continue well into the spring and summer. But we now know enough to size up the most interesting quarterback situations around the country, about seven months before the 2020 season kicks off.

Not all of these situations include transfers. Some include returning starters. Others feature new playcallers. But all 10 carry some degree of intrigue and could impact races for divisions, leagues and even the CFP.

Let's get to the rundown.





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Alabama Crimson Tide
Returning starter: None

Key newcomer: Bryce Young (top dual-threat quarterback, No. 5 overall in 2020 class)


Breakdown: The attention on Tua Tagovailoa's injury, surgery, recovery and NFL draft decision delayed the spotlight shift toward the 2020 quarterback situation, but it's here now. Mac Jones did well in relief of Tagovailoa, passing for 1,503 yards and 14 touchdowns with three interceptions, despite starting only four games. The redshirt sophomore knows the system and an offensive staff that, unlike in previous years, returns fully intact. But he must distance himself from Young, the former USC recruit who provides the explosive playmaking ability that Tagovailoa brought the past two-plus seasons. Nick Saban will play a freshman quarterback if one is ready, but Jones enters spring practice as the favorite to start. Also in the mix is Taulia Tagovailoa, Tua's brother, who appeared in five games last season and completed nine of 12 pass attempts.

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Florida State Seminoles
Returning starter: James Blackman

Key newcomers: Chubba Purdy (No. 5 pocket passer, No. 126 overall player in 2020 class); Tate Rodemaker (No. 24 dual-threat quarterback in 2020 class)


Breakdown: This group is the top priority for new Seminoles coach Mike Norvell, who seems to produce dynamic offenses everywhere he goes. Blackman has started two seasons for two different coaching staffs. His adjustment to Norvell's offense will be interesting, as last season he ranked among the top 15 nationally in completions longer than 50 yards, 60 yards and 70 yards. But the new FSU coaches picked up both Purdy and Rodemaker during a strong recruiting push before the early signing date. Purdy, whose older brother, Brock, is Iowa State's top quarterback, comes to Tallahassee as the more decorated prospect. The Arizona native connects well with both Norvell and offensive coordinator Kenny Dillingham, both of whom have ties to the Phoenix area. Rodemaker enrolled early and has a chance to impress the staff this spring before Purdy arrives.

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Georgia Bulldogs

Returning starter: None

Key newcomers: Jamie Newman (transfer from Wake Forest); Carson Beck (ESPN's No. 14 pocket passer in 2020 recruiting class)

Breakdown: Jake Fromm led Georgia to 35 wins, three SEC East division titles, a conference title and nearly a national title. But his departure to the NFL, combined with an offensive coordinator change and the addition of Newman, sends Georgia into a new phase. The Bulldogs must close the gap with teams such as LSU, Alabama and Clemson and hope that veteran playcaller Todd Monken can deliver. Newman, who started the past two seasons at Wake Forest, is the favorite to win the top job. He's a big body (6-foot-4, 230 pounds) who thrived in Wake Forest's delayed RPO scheme but also struggled after losing his best wide receivers to injury late last season. Georgia also returns Stetson Bennett, who had 27 pass attempts as Fromm's backup last season, as well as D'Wan Mathis, a one-time Ohio State recruit who redshirted last season. Newman has a fairly clear path to the starting job, but how he clicks with Monken and his new team will be something to watch this spring.

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Miami Hurricanes
Returning starter: None

Key newcomers: D'Eriq King (transfer from Houston); Tyler Van Dyke (No. 3 pocket passer, No. 110 overall player in 2020 class)

Breakdown: At the very least, the characters here are fascinating. King made national news when he voluntarily employed the redshirt rule at Houston last season, saying he intended to return for the Cougars in 2020. Instead, he picked Miami over several other transfer suitors and immediately becomes the heavy favorite to start for the Hurricanes. Miami's quarterback room has been a problem for a while, and coach Manny Diaz hired offensive coordinator Rhett Lashlee from SMU to fix things. The King-Lashlee tandem could boost a Miami offense that ranked 106th nationally in adjusted QBR in 2019. Although Jarren Williams, Miami's primary starter in 2019, entered the transfer portal last month, N'Kosi Perry and Tate Martell are still around. Perry has started 14 games the past two seasons. Martell has struggled to find a role and twice left the team because of personal issues. Van Dyke is a talented addition who should be a factor in 2021 and beyond.

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Michigan Wolverines
Returning starter: None

Key newcomers: None

Breakdown: Shea Patterson passed for 5,661 yards and 45 touchdowns the past two seasons for Michigan, but the Wolverines clearly need more from the quarterback position. That isn't a knock against Patterson, but Michigan's lack of an elite QB during a time when passing records are rewritten annually exposes its talent deficiencies elsewhere. Michigan fans hoping to see more of Dylan McCaffrey in 2019 could get their wish. The fourth-year junior is a legitimate dual-threat quarterback who could thrive in coordinator Josh Gattis' system. McCaffrey will be pushed, though, by Joe Milton, who boasts size (6-foot-5, 245 pounds) and arm strength but not much experience. When Michigan's offense struggled early last season, a source familiar with the team's personnel told me, "Do they play Joe Milton? Joe's the most talented one out of all of them. It's not even close." We'll soon find out.

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Mississippi State Bulldogs
Returning starter: None

Key newcomers: K.J. Costello (transfer from Stanford); Jaden Walley (No. 23 dual-threat quarterback in 2020 class); Will Rogers (No. 34 pocket passer in 2020 class)

Breakdown: Mike Leach's arrival in StarkVegas automatically makes things interesting. The coach oversaw the nation's top passing offense in four of the past six seasons at Washington State, mentoring Luke Falk, Gardner Minshew and Anthony Gordon. Big news came Monday as Costello, who started 25 games at Stanford, announced he's transferring to Mississippi State as a graduate. Costello produced big numbers for Stanford in 2018, albeit in a dramatically different offense. Leach has more familiarity with Costello, who faced Washington State in 2017 and 2018, than any of the quarterbacks he inherits. Garrett Shrader started four games as a freshman last season and showcased dual-threat ability. But Leach prioritizes accuracy with his quarterbacks, and both Shrader (57.5 percent completions in 2019) and Keytaon Thompson (50-of-105 career passing) need to improve there. Rogers, an early enrollee, and Walley are both three-star recruits.

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Oklahoma Sooners

Returning starter: None

Key newcomers: Chandler Morris (No. 7 dual-threat quarterback, No. 196 overall player in 2020 recruiting class)

Breakdown: The fascinating part here is that Lincoln Riley doesn't have a transfer quarterback for the first time in his Oklahoma coaching career. That Riley didn't look for a transfer reinforces his belief in Spencer Rattler, the front-runner to win the starting job. Rattler, ESPN's top dual-threat quarterback and No. 29 overall player in the 2019 class, provides Riley with some of the elite skills shown by OU's recent transfer quarterbacks. Tanner Mordecai is staying with OU for now and will compete with Rattler this spring, but he has just 30 pass attempts in two seasons with the Sooners. Riley famously prolongs quarterback competitions, even when the starter is fairly obvious (hello, Kyler Murray), and likely won't announce a winner until just before the season. It will be a surprise if Rattler doesn't take the first snap against Missouri State, but Mordecai is capable, and Morris, the son of former Arkansas and SMU coach Chad Morris, also could shape the competition.

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Oregon Ducks
Returning starter: None

Key newcomers: Robby Ashford (No. 8 pocket passer, No. 168 overall player in 2020 class); Jay Butterfield (No. 11 pocket passer, No. 204 overall player)

Breakdown: Oregon returns its best defense in recent memory, the nation's top offensive lineman (left tackle Penei Sewell) and seemingly enough depth at receiver and running back. If the Ducks get the quarterback right, they should be in CFP contention. Four-year starter Justin Herbert departs, and redshirt sophomore Tyler Shough is poised to step in after backing up Herbert in 2019. Shough, a four-star recruit in the 2018 class, is a big body like Herbert, and redshirt freshman Cale Millen also has good size. But Oregon's 2020 recruiting push under Mario Cristobal included two ESPN 300 quarterbacks, including Butterfield, an early enrollee. Although Shough brings some experience, Oregon's quarterbacks have a clean slate under new coordinator Joe Moorhead, arguably the splashiest assistant hire of the offseason. Moorhead wants quarterbacks who can move and thrive in the RPO game.
 

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Washington Huskies
Returning starter: None

Key newcomers: Ethan Garbers (No. 10 pocket passer in 2020 class)



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Breakdown: Washington's offense resets a bit under new coach Jimmy Lake, who dismissed coordinator Bush Hamdan and hired former Penn State and Vanderbilt OC John Donovan as his replacement. Jacob Eason is off to the NFL draft, creating a competition among Jacob Sirmon, Dylan Morris and Garbers, who enrolls early. All three players earned ESPN 300 recognition as recruits, and Sirmon arrived as the most decorated (No. 2 pocket passer, No. 27 overall in 2018 class). But Sirmon redshirted and then attempted only five passes last season, so he doesn't have a significant edge in experience. He looks the part at 6-foot-5 and 234 pounds, while the 6-foot Morris might draw more comparisons to former Husky QB Jake Browning. The wild card here is Donovan, whose hire surprised many after he spent the past four years in low-profile roles with the NFL's Jacksonville Jaguars. Like last season, Washington's quarterback race could last the entire summer.

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Wisconsin Badgers
Returning starter: Jack Coan (2,727 pass yards, 18 touchdowns, five interceptions, 69.6% completion)

Key newcomers: None

Breakdown: Normally, a Wisconsin quarterback who leads the team to a division title and a Rose Bowl appearance -- and produces the numbers Coan did last season -- would be in no danger of losing his job. But Wisconsin rarely has a quarterback like Graham Mertz waiting in the wings. Mertz, ESPN's top pocket passer and No. 21 overall prospect in the 2019 class, arrived a year ago as Wisconsin's highest-rated quarterback recruit ever. He redshirted last season, appearing in only two games, but should push Coan for playing time in the fall. This is new territory for coach Paul Chryst and his staff, but Wisconsin seemingly needs more from the quarterback position in order to take the obvious next steps: its first Big Ten championship since 2012 and its first CFP appearance. If Mertz displays a higher ceiling than Coan during the offseason, a switch could be in order.
 

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I think a lot of teams in this draft are going to take who they think is the best player available rather than drafting for a particular need. There are good, solid players to be had in this draft, but no standout potential superstars.

If we’re being honest, then the top 5-10 players in this draft all have long-term question marks and not just the top 3 that they mentioned.

i feel like you will have to do your research to find the best candidate for what you are doing, but to be honest i figured this to be the norm, it’s too many one and done’s, that lack any true skill set, kids need to stay 2-3 years, the nba is going to get watered down with kids that will come and go, vs kids with star/staying power
 

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i feel like you will have to do your research to find the best candidate for what you are doing, but to be honest i figured this to be the norm, it’s too many one and done’s, that lack any true skill set, kids need to stay 2-3 years, the nba is going to get watered down with kids that will come and go, vs kids with star/staying power

It’s going to get even worse when they start allowing high school kids to enter into the draft in 2022 or 2023. A lot of these kids are jumping into the draft when they are ready and either washing out of the league in a few years or ending up as G-League/overseas players.

A few years ago one of the scouts said that a coach mentioned that one of players who was taken as a lottery pick told him that he should have stayed in school as he was barely getting any playing time and mainly just sitting around playing. I believe it was John Calipari and Malik Monk that he was referring to.
 

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It’s going to get even worse when they start allowing high school kids to enter into the draft in 2022 or 2023. A lot of these kids are jumping into the draft when they are ready and either washing out of the league in a few years or ending up as G-League/overseas players.

A few years ago one of the scouts said that a coach mentioned that one of players who was taken as a lottery pick told him that he should have stayed in school as he was barely getting any playing time and mainly just sitting around playing. I believe it was John Calipari and Malik Monk that he was referring to.


Especially when a lot of these kids are coming in the league at 160-200 lbs, nikka ain’t even got enough rocks in his pockets to handle 82 games, don’t get me started on the ability to score/create a shot, and total lack of defense, nor any working knowledge on working through a play, or off ball skills, shyts hella whack
 

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The most disappointing moves of baseball's offseason

Life isn't a zero-sum game, but baseball certainly is. We mostly focus on teams getting better in the form of big signings and giant trades, but for any team to improve, another team has to get worse. There are 2,430 wins out there on the schedule, and if your team gets better, you have to get those additional wins from someone.

Whether through poor evaluation of players, lack of willingness to invest in the team or simply downright self-sabotage, bad moves have been made. Here are our picks for baseball's most disappointing offseason moves, in terms of winning games in 2020.

The Mookie Betts trade

You can make a reasonable case that acquiring Alex Verdugo and Jeter Downs, dumping David Price's contract (or at least half of it) and pushing the reset button on the luxury-tax penalty was a fair valuation for one season of Mookie Betts at $27 million. You can also make a reasonable case that it was far healthier to eat steamed vegetables at your Super Bowl party than buffalo wings.

If the Red Sox were one of the league doormats, this trade wouldn't really matter. But Boston is a team that, while coming off a disappointing 2019 season, still has enough of a foundation to get 88-92 wins in 2020. Win totals in the 80s are most valuable in that they boost a team's playoff chances the most. Similarly, letting wins in the 80s get away is most damaging, and the Red Sox just dropped themselves into significant underdog status in the American League East and well down the ranks of wild-card contenders.

Colorado's "can't-do" attitude

After playoff appearances in 2017 and 2018, the only consecutive playoff appearances in franchise history, the Rockies decided to address their depth issues by doing, well, almost nothing. After dropping to 71-91 in 2019, the Rockies felt an urgent need to change course and do ... totally nothing.

With stars such as Nolan Arenado and Trevor Story already on board, and Jon Gray having a breakout season, the Rockies addressed their need for help in the outfield, rotation and bullpen -- by announcing they were suddenly out of money. Of course, the payroll figure was known a year ago -- Colorado didn't make any significant additions during the season -- and Arenado apparently was assured that the team would remain competitive. Co-owner Charlie Monfort's odd use of sabermetrics aside, Colorado's roster is no better than the one that lost 90 games last year, and now the team's best player is extremely unhappy.

Reds fail to fill their biggest hole

There are many teams for whom Nick Castellanos would have been a major upgrade -- we'll get to two of them next -- but by the time the Reds signed him, the outfield wasn't the team's biggest problem. Castellanos is a fine hitter, but a dreadful defensive player, and with Jesse Winker, Nick Senzel, Aristides Aquino, Shogo Akiyama and Phillip Ervin, the outfield was just fine. Now, Betts would have been a significant upgrade, of course, but Castellanos is merely above average, not an MVP candidate.

While Castellanos is an improvement, the Reds didn't fill their largest hole, the shortstop position. Both the ZiPS and Steamer projection systems peg Cincinnati as the league's weakest team at shortstop. Maybe Didi Gregorius didn't want to sign with the Reds, but Gregorius getting only $14 million for a one-year contract indicates they didn't do much to drive up the bidding. Before Gregorius' injury-shortened 2019, he was the better player than Castellanos each of the previous four seasons, and signing Gregorius would have addressed a team need.

The Reds are a much improved team overall, but they've hurt themselves by not addressing shortstop.

Cubs, Indians short an outfielder

The Cubs are totally out of money, scout's honor, playing in that tiny market of Chicago. Last season, the outfield of Kyle Schwarber, Albert Almora Jr. and Jason Heyward was a drag on the team's offense, necessitating a July trade for Castellanos. Chicago didn't re-sign Castellanos or do much to address the outfield situation, bringing in only Steven Souza Jr. With a lone 2-WAR season in his career, Souza is hardly the savior the outfield needs. Nor is Ian Happ, whose .242/.364/.432 line in Triple-A was rather lackluster in a season when the league was using the MLB crazy ball. It's hard to justify a large-market team that had the benefit of monetizing the franchise's first World Series victory in more than a century letting itself fall back to the pack like this.

While the Indians have a better claim than the Cubs to be short on cash, their need for help in the outfield is even greater. The team blundered by letting Michael Brantley walk without even making a qualifying offer, and after the outfield performed as miserably as projected in 2019, the Indians again pinched pennies in the outfield, settling for signing Domingo Santana. Against that, the Twins added Josh Donaldson this offseason. The White Sox signed Yasmani Grandal, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez and Edwin Encarnacion. Cesar Hernandez at second is a nice enough pickup, and Santana will have to do for outfield reinforcements, but the Indians are in danger of watching their AL Central rivals close their contending window for them.

Angels miss out on adding pitching

Anthony Rendon was a massive addition to the lineup and a better signing than Albert Pujols was at the time of his deal, by far. The Angels acquired Dylan Bundy from the Orioles and signed Julio Teheran, but fell short in the race for every other available starting pitcher. Shohei Ohtani could be that ace, but he's also a young pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery and won't return to the mound until mid-May. The Angels need more help than even an Ohtani breakout would provide. The ZiPS and Steamer projections agree; both systems have the Angels with the worst rotation of any likely 2020 contender. A team that has more or less wasted much of Mike Trout's prime has to do better than this.

Orioles dump their best player from 2019

The Orioles were destined for the AL East basement no matter what they did, but was there a more cynical move than the team threatening to non-tender a 4-WAR player in an attempt to force a last-minute trade? Jonathan Villar compiled a slash line of .274/.339/.453, hit 24 homers, stole 40 bases and scored 111 runs on the second-worst offense in the American League. Yet Baltimore treated Villar as a pure salary dump.
 

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How great is Zion Williamson's NBA superstar ceiling?

What has Zion Williamson's first taste of NBA action shown us about the No. 1 overall pick in last year's draft?

We're 10 games into Williamson's debut for the New Orleans Pelicans, and he has given us glimpses of his NBA potential while reminding us why he was one of the most hyped prospects in recent memory.

What does a deeper look at Williamson's performance tell us about what's in store? Insiders Mike Schmitz and Kevin Pelton break down his play and his potential.




Where has Zion been better than expected?
Kevin Pelton: After coming back from knee surgery midseason, Williamson has immediately been one of the league's better players. He's already among the top 25 in ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM).

For the most part, this success has been no surprise. We already knew after Zion made 77% of his 2-point attempts at Duke that he was going to be an efficient scorer around the basket (he's shooting 59% on 2s so far) and a dominant offensive rebounder. However, I think two things have been somewhat unexpected to me.

First, Williamson is a bigger part of the Pelicans' offense than expected given how well they were playing without him. Zion is finishing 31% of the team's plays while on the court with a shot, a trip to the free throw line or a turnover -- higher than his 29% usage rate at Duke. Second, Williamson's quickness is a massive advantage in terms of securing his own rebounds. Amazingly, he's grabbed the rebound on 29.5% of his own missed shots, a far better offensive rebound rate than any team has managed this season.

Mike, you've got a better perspective on Zion's prep career. What has surprised you about him in the NBA?

Mike Schmitz: We knew Zion would terrorize teams in transition as a vertical spacer, as he has developed an instant connection with lob-thrower extraordinaire Lonzo Ball. I figured Williamson would beat opponents up on the offensive glass, but I'm surprised by how effective he has been scoring the ball inside the arc -- especially in the post -- while basically not even looking at the rim from the perimeter. Even while spending the majority of his time on the floor alongside an interior-oriented center in Derrick Favors, Williamson still ranks in the 81st percentile in half-court scoring efficiency, doing his damage in the post, on the offensive glass and as a roller.

Not only is Williamson quicker to his own misses than any prospect I've evaluated, he also has done an excellent job of getting in position for early post touches, taking advantage of that oversize frame. When he does catch in the mid-post, he is dangerous with hard, low-to-the-court rip-throughs to his left, beating opposing bigs with his explosive first step.

Zion also has started to add counters to that, unleashing a powerful jab step. He will utilize spin moves if his initial rip-through drive is taken away, and he simply is able to overpower some of the league's strongest defenders. He has even gone to a short turnaround jumper at times, elevating over the top of like-sized defenders.


He has had issues finishing against elite wings and remains left-hand dominant, but he is too explosive, powerful and decisive with his moves to contain. Even without the threat of a jump shot, he has been able to go up and over retreating bigs with little resistance. His lack of a perimeter jumper can make him predictable in the half-court, and it is more glaring against elite defenses. He doesn't have many good options here:

no3pthreat.PNG


Based on the film, he has been at his best this season operating as a 5 -- either alongside a stretch-4 such as Nicolo Melli or when Favors is spaced to the corner. Zion gravitates toward the rim and has a tendency to dive from the corners when Favors is in the paint, which hurts offensive flow. But when Favors is on the perimeter or Melli is spaced, Zion is nearly impossible to defend as a roller or driver.


The simple fact that Williamson has been so productive playing a fair amount of power forward next to a non-spacing center speaks to just how incredible of a talent he is.

Where can Zion still improve?


Pelton: I think you have to look at the defensive end of the court when we talk about areas of improvement for Zion after the All-Star break.

On top of everything that made him a special offensive player in college, Williamson also racked up steals (3.9 per 100 possessions) and blocks (5.8% of opponent 2-point attempts) at Duke. Per Sports-Reference.com, National Defensive Player of the Year Matisse Thybulle was the only other college players to reach those marks. Given that history, I'd say it's disappointing that Zion hasn't been a bigger factor yet as a help defender. He's blocked just three shots and come up with seven steals so far.

You'd expect a certain dropoff going from college to the pro game, but Thybulle's steal and block rates with the Philadelphia 76ers (3.5 and 3.6, respectively) substantially exceed Williamson's (1.2 apiece). Free throw shooting is a more predictable area for improvement (Zion is hitting 59% of his attempts thus far, down slightly from the 64% he made at Duke, a concern given how frequently he's going to go to the foul line), but hopefully his defensive effort will get better as his conditioning improves.

What are you seeing from Williamson there?

Schmitz: While part of it is working his way back into shape and being cautious with his body, his motor hasn't been what I've seen in the past. He is improving each and every game and figures to get more comfortable, but the potential defensive versatility I praised pre-draft has yet to come to fruition consistently.

You touched on his low block and steal rates, which you can see on film, as he isn't offering rim protection when he is seeing minutes at the 5. Zion shows flashes, but he isn't always a consistent force at the rim:






Williamson has been arguably worse defending away from the basket, allowing too many blow-bys and not attempting to bend his knees and sit in a stance on some possessions. He has had incredible one-on-one defensive moments, sliding with Marcus Smart or standing up Nikola Jokic in the post. Williamson also has shown an ability to chase wings around screens and deny catches when engaged. But he is too inconsistent with his energy levels right now, and he doesn't have the technique to fall back on if he isn't competing:





He also is at an early stage of development as a pick-and-roll big defender, which shouldn't come as too big of a surprise given the fact that he never played all that much high-level, structured basketball prior to college:





He doesn't have a great feel for how to contain the ball in drop coverages, as he is too worried about getting back to his own man, as opposed to corralling the guard. Williamson still is learning the tendencies of opponents, giving up easy open 3s to Kevin Love as one example. While Zion will recover for blocks, his balance and ability to change direction isn't as crisp due to his conditioning, which teams have taken advantage of by putting him in space and attacking.

Williamson is too often the last one down the floor, regularly in a casual trot. While he can go get rebounds better than most players in the NBA, he stands and watches on the defensive glass for stretches, and he isn't playing with the same type of reckless abandon we saw at Duke.

Part of this is by design, and I'm not worried about Williamson eventually feeling comfortable enough to unleash the motor that made him special in college. I would just like to see him buy in more on defense, because his versatility on that end is a big reason why I loved his fit as a modern, small-ball 5. If his defense comes around, he'll be mentioned among the league's elite sooner than later.

What is Zion's ceiling?
Pelton: The best way to build around Zion long term is to put a floor spacer next to him. That player ideally would also be a rim protector, similar to the Giannis Antetokounmpo-Brook Lopez frontcourt of the Milwaukee Bucks. For now, New Orleans seems to be splitting the difference.

Williamson has played a little more than half of his minutes next to Favors, a more traditional center even though he started at power forward in Utah. Despite spacing concerns -- Favors has made just one 3-pointer all season -- those lineups have been dominant thus far, outscoring opponents by 16.3 points per 100 possessions according to NBA Advanced Stats. Lineups with Zion and stretch big Nicolo Melli, who's not a rim protector, have been more potent offensively but less effective defensively for a plus-10.7 net rating. Intriguingly, Alvin Gentry has been reluctant to play Williamson with fellow lottery pick Jaxson Hayes, as they've logged just 11 minutes together so far.

The sample sizes on those configurations are too small to draw conclusions, but they're worth monitoring as the Pelicans figure out their long-term roster.

What's a reasonable expectation for Zion's ceiling based on what we've seen in the NBA?

Schmitz: Health permitting, I'm confident that Zion will be an MVP candidate and viewed as one of the best players in the league. For that to happen, he'll have to up his impact on the defensive end of the floor. Given his injury history and small-school background prior to the NCAA, anticipating a learning curve defensively should have been expected. Based on the motor and versatility I saw at Duke, I think he'll develop into a valuable on-ball and off-ball defender in time.

His offensive upside will be dictated by the type of shooter he can become. Developing into a league-average catch-and-shoot marksman will allow him to spend more time at the 4, while making him more devastating as a small 5 in late-game situations. Part of what makes Zion intriguing in the long term is how productive he is while still having areas to improve, such as shooting, his off-hand and fine-tuning his handle.

Zion hasn't been as effective of a facilitator so far, missing open kickouts to instead force tough shots at the rim. But as you can see here, the glimpses are starting to become more frequent:





I've always thought Williamson's playmaking ability is one of the underrated aspects of his game. As he taps more and more into that vision and has better spacing around him, I think he can develop into a shot-creator and an occasional triple-double threat down the line. Far and away the most unique prospect I've evaluated, Williamson has no ceiling if he can improve his shooting and stay healthy.

Pelton: I tend to agree. The scary thing is how good Zion has already been when he still has so much room for improvement. You hit on a lot of areas I think we'll see Williamson develop, but I would emphasize decision-making along with playmaking. Though this isn't necessarily a weakness now, it's something that tends to improve over time for most players and goes hand in hand with Zion beating any kind of defensive coverage.

It's tricky to envision peak Zion because we've never seen a player like him before. I expect broad similarities with the player Antetokounmpo has become in a very different physical frame. Given how well Williamson has started as a teenager, we can't put much of a limit on what he can achieve. Now here's hoping Zion stays healthy so we find out.
 

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1. Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

What, you thought 9-inch hands were going to keep Burrow from Cincinnati? No chance. Burrow threw for 5,671 yards and completed 76.3% of his passes at LSU. He has elite pocket presence. And now he has quieted rumors that he might not suit up for the Bengals if they were to draft him. For a team desperately looking for a star to rebuild the franchise around, this makes too much sense. He'd be the fourth QB the Bengals have taken in the top-three picks of the draft (Carson Palmer, Akili Smith and Jack Thompson). And in addition to a new quarterback, some more good news for Cincy fans: The Bengals are reportedly looking to franchise tag A.J. Green, meaning the Heisman QB will have a proven weapon on the outside.

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2. Washington Redskins
Chase Young, DE, Ohio State

Washington is super happy it's Cincinnati picking at No. 1. Any team not in obvious need of a quarterback would probably be running to the podium to draft Young first overall, but instead, the Redskins land him at No. 2. He's the best player in the draft and one of the best pass-rushers I've ever scouted. Yes, the Redskins had 46 sacks last season (10th in the NFL), but they won't pass up the opportunity to add a pass-rusher of this caliber. Young had 16.5 sacks to lead the nation despite missing two games, and he could take a middle-of-the-road passing defense to the next level.

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3. Detroit Lions
Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State

Any team would love to add an explosive cornerback with excellent ball skills. But a team that managed just seven interceptions and gave up a league-worst 284.4 passing yards per game in 2019? A team potentially losing Rashaan Melvin to free agency and putting Darius Slay on the trading block? That sort of team needs to do it. Okudah is perfect for what Detroit needs right now: He brings size, versatility and elite athleticism, shown by his 41-inch vertical and 11-foot-3 broad jump at the combine. Isaiah Simmons out of Clemson could be in play here too, but Okudah would be an immediate impact player for the Lions, and the fit is right.

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4. New York Giants

Isaiah Simmons, OLB, Clemson

The Giants defense needs everything, and everything is exactly what Simmons brings to the table. He was a factor in every single statistical area in 2019 for the Tigers, and his blazing 4.39-second time in the 40, wild 39-inch vertical and ridiculous 11-foot broad jump took Indianapolis by storm. It was one of the best workouts we've ever seen from a linebacker. A converted safety, Simmons fits what NFL teams are looking for today and can affect so many areas of the game. New York handed 28.2 points per game to opponents last season, more than all but two other teams. Let's jump start the defensive rebuild with a true difference-maker.

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5. Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

March 9 and April 9 are the key dates for this pick. First, Tagovailoa is expecting to get full medical clearance in March after a serious hip injury sidelined him for four months. Then NFL teams will get their first look at the Alabama lefty throwing the ball at the Crimson Tide pro day in April. When he's right, Tagovailoa is special. He has incredible accuracy and some twitch to him. I love the way he reads a defense. The question is whether the Dolphins feel comfortable with Tagovailoa's injury history and durability. I said recently that if I were promised 10 years of good health for both, I'd take Tua over Burrow. He's that good. And with Ryan Fitzpatrick still in town, Tagovailoa could be afforded a nice adjustment period to the NFL.

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6. Los Angeles Chargers
Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

Open up that wallet, Mel. I bet Kiper that Love is going to be drafted before Oregon's Justin Herbert, and I'm going with him here to the QB-needy Chargers. Love's 2019 season won't excite too many folks -- he managed just 20 touchdowns to 17 interceptions -- but you have to remember that the Aggies lost nine players off their offense, plus the full offensive staff. In apples-to-apples situations, like the Senior Bowl and the combine, Love stood out. He has a huge arm, strong instincts and mobility in the pocket. NFL teams want quarterbacks who can create in today's game, and that's exactly what Love does. Philip Rivers won't be back, and Tyrod Taylor could act as a bridge to Love.


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7. Carolina Panthers
Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

I had Brown to Carolina in my last mock draft, and I'm not changing anything with this pick now -- even though the Panthers would be tempted by one of the terrific offensive tackles on the board after surrendering 58 sacks last season. The same front-seven concerns are still there. Gerald McCoy, Mario Addison, Bruce Irvin and Vernon Butler are all free agents, Luke Kuechly is off to retirement and the Panthers gave up 143.5 rushing yards per game (fourth-worst in the league) last season. For a 6-5, 326-pound tackle, Brown can move. Along with 2019 first-rounder Brian Burns, he would be a big piece in refurbishing the front seven.

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8. Arizona Cardinals
Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville

Linemen weighing in at 364 pounds aren't supposed to run 5.10-second 40 times. Becton has versatility and power, and he obviously moves extremely well for his massive 6-7 frame. And if you're the Cardinals, you can't let your 5-10 franchise mobile quarterback continue to take 50 sacks per season. They just locked up D.J. Humphries -- the team's last first-round offensive line selection (2015) -- to a new contract, but Marcus Gilbert is headed toward free agency. It's time to invest another high pick in that line.


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9. Jacksonville Jaguars
Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

Wirfs, Cam Robinson and 2019 second-rounder Jawaan Taylor would be a very strong trio of tackles for the Jaguars, and Wirfs could pop inside to guard if Jacksonville decides to go this route. He is 6-5, 320 but leapt 36.5 inches in the vertical jump -- higher than DeAndre Hopkins did at his 2013 combine -- in addition to recording a 10-foot-1 broad jump and running a 4.85 in the 40 in Indianapolis. Did I mention he's 320 pounds? Edge rusher would be a reach at No. 9, and while the Jags could use another receiver, it isn't a pressing need. So the athletic Wirfs makes sense as another asset on that line, driving defenders off the ball and protecting Nick Foles, Gardner Minshew II or whoever else is throwing the passes in 2020 and beyond.

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10. Cleveland Browns
Jedrick Wills Jr., OT, Alabama

The Browns also need offensive line help for Baker Mayfield in Year 3, especially since Greg Robinson is a free agent. Enter Wills, who has good size and versatility. Yes, that's three offensive tackles in a row, all in the top 10. That's how good this class is. Wills is a nasty finisher, and he ran an impressive 5.05 in the combine 40 at 312 pounds. He is a two-year starter at Alabama and outplayed the highly touted Alex Leatherwood for much of the 2019 season. I think he'd be a great fit as Robinson's replacement.

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11. New York Jets
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Jets go offensive line here. But rather than reaching here after those three tackles went off the board, let's get Sam Darnold someone to throw to -- especially since Robby Anderson might suit up elsewhere in 2020. Jeudy is a masterful route runner and tracks the deep ball extremely well. He'd be an instant target for Darnold in a passing game that was one of four to average fewer than 200 yards and score fewer than 20 touchdowns last season.
 
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