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[Skooby]

Kiper's 2020 NFL Mock Draft: Perfect fits for Tua, Burrow and Herbert

1. Cincinnati Bengals
Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

Did you expect anything else here? The Bengals need a quarterback, and the Heisman Trophy-winning Burrow, coming off one of the greatest seasons in college football history, is the clear No. 1 quarterback in this class. Remember that the 2-14 Bengals can release former starter Andy Dalton with no dead-cap charge, so this can be a clean slate with Burrow -- who went to high school in Athens, Ohio -- taking over (and 2019 fourth-round pick Ryan Finley serving as backup). One more thing to remember: Cincinnati got zero snaps from last year's first-round pick Jonah Williams, so he'll help Burrow immediately. Now the Bengals have to get Burrow some weapons, starting with keeping free-agent receiver A.J. Green.

2. Washington Redskins
Chase Young, DE, Ohio State

If you scanned Washington's depth chart, you probably wouldn't pick out an edge rusher as its top need. It might not even be in the top three. And yet, the Redskins absolutely can't pass on Young -- unless they get bowled over with an offer from a team trading up. With 16.5 sacks in 2019, Young was truly dominant, and he'll make an instant impact at the next level. Yes, Washington has veteran Ryan Kerrigan, who has one year left on his contract, and just took Montez Sweat (seven sacks as a rookie) in the first round, but Young has All-Pro talent and is my top-ranked prospect overall. New coach Ron Rivera will love him.

3. Detroit Lions

Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State

This pick has to be on defense, right? After the Lions spent a boatload of money in free agency last year on pass-rusher Trey Flowers and corner Justin Coleman, I thought they might take a step up. That didn't happen in a disappointing season, as Matt Patricia's defense gave up the NFL's most passing yards per game (284.4) and had the second-fewest sacks (28). Combine that with a half-season from Matthew Stafford and you get 3-12-1, and now Patricia is facing a make-or-break Year 3 in Detroit. Okudah, the top corner in this class, reminds me a little bit of Stephon Gilmore, whom Patricia coached for a season in New England. The Buckeye is also a stellar tackler off the edge. With Young off the board, Okudah is the top defender available.

4. New York Giants
Isaiah Simmons, OLB, Clemson


An off-ball linebacker in the top five? Believe it -- Simmons is that good. He is the perfect run-and-cover linebacker for today's NFL, and he can do anything and play every down. Just look at his incredible stat line from 2019: 104 tackles, eight sacks, three interceptions and 16 total tackles for loss. The Giants have many needs, but Simmons is the type of defender who makes everyone around him better. This is another spot to watch for a rising pass-rusher, but I don't have another one graded this high. I also thought about offensive line; New York could upgrade at both tackle spots. By the way: The last time the Giants picked No. 4 overall, they ended up with a pretty good player (good luck in retirement, Eli).

5. Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

Let's rewind: Back in 2006, the Nick Saban-coached Dolphins passed on signing a quarterback coming off a serious injury and instead traded draft picks to acquire Daunte Culpepper and Joey Harrington. Things didn't work out, and Saban moved on to Alabama the next year. The quarterback Saban and Miami could have had? Drew Brees. Now, Saban has a talented quarterback with injury questions, and things have come full circle. The Dolphins shouldn't pass on this one. Tagovailoa, who still needs to pass medical checks on his injured hip, is a super-talented passer with elite accuracy. With three first-round picks and two second-rounders, Miami has to build its talent base, and it can start with a franchise quarterback.

6. Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

The Chargers have some big decisions to make over the next few months. Will they bring back free-agent quarterback Philip Rivers? Will they pay up to keep tight end Hunter Henry and running back Melvin Gordon? Rivers showed some decline in 2019, throwing 20 interceptions. It could be time to start fresh with the 6-foot-6 Herbert, who has the highest ceiling of any of the quarterbacks in this class. His inconsistency can be maddening and his decision-making must improve, but you can't doubt his talent, and a team in the top 10 could fall in love. L.A. has some issues; its defense produced just 30 sacks (despite Joey Bosa and Melvin Ingram III combining for 18.5), and quarterbacks completed 70.7% of passes against it, highest in the league. The Chargers also got almost nothing from top 2019 picks Jerry Tillery and Nasir Adderley. This also could be a spot to watch for defense.

7. Carolina Panthers
Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

I see this pick going toward the trenches, either on defense or offense. Carolina ranked second in the NFL with 53 sacks this season, but 29 of those came from pending free agents in Gerald McCoy (five), Mario Addison (9.5), Bruce Irvin (8.5) and Vernon Butler (six). New coach Matt Rhule needs to find replacements -- not all of them will be back. Worse news for the Panthers? The offensive line allowed 58 sacks, tied for most in the league. They can upgrade across the board there. I'll go with Brown, who has explosive athleticism in a massive 6-foot-5 frame. He improved as a pass-rusher this season, even if he didn't stuff the stat sheet (four sacks). He can be the Panthers' defensive anchor and make the linebackers and secondary behind him better, just by eating up blockers and chasing down quarterbacks.

8. Arizona Cardinals
Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

This is about the range in which we could see a run on offensive tackles, and Thomas, who has played on both the left and right, is No. 1 on my board. I debated going with a receiver here; wouldn't Kyler Murray's former teammate CeeDee Lamb enjoy catching a few more long touchdown passes from his friend? But this comes down to protecting the franchise quarterback, and Arizona desperately needs help along its line, particularly at left tackle, where starter D.J. Humphries is a free agent. The Cardinals also have some defensive deficiencies, so keep an eye on a defensive back too.

9. Jacksonville Jaguars
Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina

Kinlaw is just behind Brown in my defensive tackle rankings, and he has had a good week of practice at the Senior Bowl, cementing his status as a top-15 pick. He fills a void in Jacksonville, where former first-round pick Taven Bryan (three sacks in two seasons) hasn't worked out. The Jags hit on edge rusher Josh Allen (10.5 sacks) in last year's draft, going with the best player available in the top 10, but they'll have to pay up to keep Yannick Ngakoue from hitting the free-agent market. This defense has to get an injection of youth, and the Jaguars have two first-round picks to do it.

 

[Skooby]

10. Cleveland Browns
Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville


This is a tough pick to project because the Browns don't even have a general manager yet, but Cleveland's clear weakness in 2019 was at left tackle. Greg Robinson was in and out of the starting lineup there and is now a free agent; he's not the long-term answer. If the Browns can't upgrade there in free agency, they should look to the draft. Becton, a 6-foot-7, 370-pound mountain of a man, is rising since he declared for the draft and scouts got a look at his 2019 film. He has great feet for his size and can plow through defenders in the running game. The last offensive tackle the Browns took in the first round? Joe Thomas at No. 3 overall in 2007. If Becton can come close to Thomas' ceiling, new coach Kevin Stefanski could stick around a long time.

11. New York Jets
Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama

This will be general manager Joe Douglas' first draft in charge of the Jets' front office, and this team has several needs it could look to fill with this pick. Wide receiver should be an option, and the Jets could have their pick of the board in this scenario. Edge rusher and cornerback are possibilities. But I keep coming back to the offensive line because of how bad that unit was in 2019. The Jets averaged just 3.3 yards per carry, and they allowed 52 sacks, fourth most in the league. A good offensive line opens up so much for Adam Gase's offense, starting with unlocking Le'Veon Bell. Wills, who started at right tackle for the Crimson Tide the past two seasons, could be an immediate starter in New York.

12. Las Vegas Raiders
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

Finally the first wide receiver comes off the board, and it's to a team that thought it had a No. 1 receiver when it traded for Antonio Brown last March. That didn't happen, of course, and when the Raiders cut Brown before the season, there was a massive hole in Derek Carr's weaponry (even after a breakout season from Darren Waller). Lamb is a big-time playmaker with great hands who will step in, catch a bunch of passes and score touchdowns. This team isn't that far off from contending -- don't forget that it sat at 6-4 before a late-season collapse, and it was only eliminated from the playoffs in Week 17 -- and Jon Gruden and Mike Mayock have two first-round picks and three third-rounders with which to work.

13. Indianapolis Colts
Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

The Colts didn't have much injury luck at receiver this season. T.Y Hilton missed six games. Free-agent signing Devin Funchess made it only one game, catching three passes. Second-round pick Parris Campbell caught just 18 passes in seven games. They could use a talent boost here, particularly with Hilton signed for only one more season. My comp for Jeudy for the past few months has been former Colts star Marvin Harrison, based mostly around his route running; Jeudy is already advanced as a route runner and is smooth out of his breaks. He should test well at the combine too. He'd help Jacoby Brissett on Day 1.

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

This is another tough team to peg because we don't yet know whether it will bring back quarterback Jameis Winston or breakout pass-rusher Shaquil Barrett, who are both free agents. The Bucs also could lose defensive linemen Ndamukong Suh, Carl Nassib, Jason Pierre-Paul and Beau Allen in free agency. That's a lot of unknowns, and the entire defensive line could be addressed here, really, particularly if Bruce Arians & Co. spot a pass-rusher they like. Because this is my mock draft, though, I see a perfect fit for Wirfs on the right side of the line with Demar Dotson likely leaving in free agency. Wirfs is powerful at the point of attack and tremendous in the running game. And if you're keeping count, that makes four offensive tackles in the first 14 picks here.

15. Denver Broncos
Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama

Does Denver have its quarterback of the future? Second-round pick Drew Lock, who flashed in his late-season cameo, has given Broncos fans hope, and he'll get every opportunity to start all 16 games in 2020. So let's help him out and give him the draft's fastest pass-catcher to pair with Courtland Sutton, who looks like he could be a future superstar. Ruggs took a step forward as a route runner this season, but his game is all about speed -- he can run by any defensive back. I also thought about cornerback here, especially with veteran Chris Harris Jr. hitting free agency. There could also be a hole at safety if the Broncos get priced out of Justin Simmons' looming free-agent payday.

16. Atlanta Falcons
A.J. Epenesa, DE, Iowa

The Falcons ended the season with four straight wins, saving Dan Quinn's job. Quinn, though, is still on the hot seat, and he needs much more out of his defense in 2020. It should get a boost from the return of safety Keanu Neal, who has played in only four games the past two seasons, but it also could use an overhaul along the defensive line. Former first-round edge rushers Vic Beasley Jr. and Takkarist McKinley haven't lived up to their hype, and Atlanta didn't get much out of its defensive tackles. Epenesa, who had 22 sacks over the past two seasons, is versatile enough to kick inside in Quinn's 4-3 defense, and I think he could be a dominant interior presence on passing downs. The Falcons' 28 sacks this season tied for second fewest in the league, and Epenesa would help.

17. Dallas Cowboys
CJ Henderson, CB, Florida

Here's a quick look at the Cowboys' top free agents, which includes some true star power: quarterback Dak Prescott, wide receivers Amari Cooper and Randall Cobb, pass-rushers Michael Bennett and Robert Quinn, and cornerback Byron Jones. Can they keep them all? Dallas likely has budgeted to pay up for Prescott and Cooper (it gave up its 2019 first-rounder for him), but Jones could be the odd man out on a team that is already paying top dollar at several positions. That means the Cowboys will need a cheap option as a replacement corner. With smooth hips and great recovery speed, Henderson is a natural cover corner with a 6-foot-1 frame. Safety is another position to keep an eye on, and Dallas could target Grant Delpit or Xavier McKinney.

18. Miami Dolphins (from PIT)
K'Lavon Chaisson, OLB, LSU

The Dolphins this season had the fewest sacks on defense (23) and also allowed the most sacks on offense (58), so they have huge holes on both sides of the trenches. And while they would probably love to grab an offensive tackle with their second first-rounder, my top four are all off the board here. The ascending Chaisson makes a ton of sense with this pick, as Miami can bet on the upside of a twitchy pass-rusher with elite quickness who ended his college career with just 9.5 sacks. Now, that includes a season lost to injury, but there is still some risk here. At 6-foot-4, 250 pounds, Chaisson has room to grow on his frame.

19. Las Vegas Raiders (from CHI)
Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma

Yes, this means two Sooners to Vegas in this projection, this time with my top-ranked inside linebacker taking over in the middle of the Raiders' defense. Murray is a chiseled, gifted talent with great athleticism for his size (6-foot-2, 240). He needs to improve in coverage, but he has the speed to match tight ends in space and is so fun to watch on tape as a tackler and penetrator. I also thought about a corner here -- the Raiders allowed quarterbacks to throw for 8.3 yards per attempt, tied for highest in the league -- but I like the fit with Murray in Paul Guenther's defense.

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (from LAR)
Cole Kmet, TE, Notre Dame


When it was reported in November that Kmet said he planned to return for his senior season at Notre Dame in 2020, I took him out of my rankings for this class. Now? He has entered the draft, and he's my new No. 1 tight end. The 6-foot-5 Kmet doesn't have a ton of experience and only caught 60 passes over three seasons, but he flashes an all-around game that is too good to ignore. Before last year's draft, I projected the Jaguars to take T.J. Hockenson because their need at tight end was so clear, and that hasn't changed a year later. By the way, keep an eye on New England as a potential landing spot for Kmet; there was a Gronk-sized hole in the Pats' offense this season, and Kmet could fill some of it.

 

[Skooby]

21. Philadelphia Eagles
Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson

Philadelphia has to upgrade at wide receiver -- its two top pass-catchers in 2019 were tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert -- and the depth and talent in this class could set up perfectly for the Eagles to have several options here. At 6-foot-4, Higgins is the biggest wideout of the first-round talents, a jump-ball specialist and touchdown machine (25 the past two seasons). He's not super explosive like Lamb, Jeudy or Ruggs, but he'll box out cornerbacks in the red zone and pick up first downs, not unlike Alshon Jeffery, who struggled to stay on the field this season. The Eagles would have liked more from second-round pick J.J. Arcega-Whiteside in Year 1, and I still like his upside, but Higgins has No. 1 receiver talent. As is always the case for Philadelphia, this is another spot to watch for an edge rusher.

22. Buffalo Bills
Laviska Shenault Jr., WR, Colorado

General manager Brandon Beane and coach Sean McDermott used the 2019 offseason to build a competent offense around quarterback Josh Allen, and it worked -- the Bills went 10-6 and made the playoffs, with some help from a great defense. Now, though, they have to figure out how to get over the Patriots hump and take the next step. One way is to keep giving Allen targets who can get open, and that's Shenault, a Swiss Army knife who plays receiver like a running back. He's great after the catch and versatile enough to play inside or out. Shenault could nicely complement John Brown and Cole Beasley.

23. New England Patriots
Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama

At this time last year, I slotted in Daniel Jones as my projection to the Patriots in Round 1. And while I'm not ready to go quarterback here, the Patriots do have an offseason of uncertainty with Tom Brady not under contract, which means they could take a close look at these signal-callers through April (though I do like fourth-round pick Jarrett Stidham). They have a few other important free agents, though, including safety Devin McCourty and linebacker Jamie Collins, who had a resurgent season. That's why I like the fit of McKinney, my top-ranked safety after I took a closer look at his 2019 tape. He's a complete player and is versatile, which is a trait Bill Belichick values. McKinney also has another thing Belichick likes: He played for Belichick's buddy Nick Saban.

24. New Orleans Saints
Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

So you probably see Love's stat line -- 20 touchdown passes, 17 interceptions -- and think this pick doesn't make sense, but you need to know the context around this Utah State team. Love lost his top five pass-catchers from his breakout 2018 (32 TDs, six INTs), along with a few starters along the offensive line. The Aggies just didn't have the offensive talent around him to compete. At 6-foot-4, 225 pounds, Love can make every throw, and NFL teams are high on his talent. He could be a first-round pick with a strong pre-draft process, which started at the Senior Bowl. As for the Saints, this pick is all about projection. There's no guarantee that 41-year-old Drew Brees will return in 2020, and Teddy Bridgewater is also a free agent. Love could develop for a year or two behind a bridge quarterback. New Orleans, by the way, doesn't have a second-round pick, so it needs to hit here.

25. Minnesota Vikings
Josh Jones, OT, Houston

A four-year starter for the Cougars, Jones has had a great week at the Senior Bowl, and I feel good about making him the fifth offensive tackle of this first round. Minnesota got a solid season out of Brian O'Neill at right tackle, but left tackle Riley Reiff isn't the long-term answer. The 6-foot-6, 310-pound Jones could be. You also could keep an eye on a cornerback here, as there could be some upheaval with Trae Waynes and Mackensie Alexander hitting free agency and Xavier Rhodes, who struggled in 2019, a possible cap casualty. And we already know Mike Zimmer loves coaching up talented cornerbacks.

26. Miami Dolphins (from HOU)
D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia

I mentioned the Dolphins' need at offensive line earlier, and this is certainly a spot to watch for linemen who rise at the combine, but I just don't have one graded this highly at this point. So I'm going to follow my board and go with the No. 1 running back in Swift, who would be a good value pick for a team that really doesn't have a clear running back starter. Swift is a big-play threat and all-around back who will contribute in the passing game, and he'd make life easier on Tagovailoa (or whoever starts under center in 2020). I actually have a higher grade on Swift than Josh Jacobs, who went No. 24 a year ago. Again, though, this team has several positions it could target, so this is fluid.

27. Seattle Seahawks
Zack Baun, OLB, Wisconsin


It's fair to say the early returns on 2019 first-round pick L.J. Collier, whom I ranked outside my top 50, were disappointing; he played just 142 defensive snaps and didn't have a sack. Put that next to an injury-plagued season from Ezekiel Ansah and an inconsistent year from Jadeveon Clowney, and the Seahawks produced a very un-Pete-Carroll-like 28 total sacks, tied for second fewest in the league. This front seven could be depleted in free agency -- Jarran Reed is another who could leave -- which means Baun, whom I really wanted to find a way to sneak into the first round here, makes a lot of sense. He's not going to be a traditional hulking 4-3 defensive end, but he gets after quarterbacks in different ways. His 2019 breakout season (12.5 sacks) included a few "wow" moments from his relentlessness, and he's going to get some comps to former Badger T.J. Watt. If he lands in Seattle, he'd play outside linebacker, but he'd get plenty of opportunities to get after quarterbacks. I thought about Oklahoma defensive tackle Neville Gallimore, who has had a good week at the Senior Bowl as a Reed replacement, but I'll stick with Baun.

28. Baltimore Ravens
Patrick Queen, ILB, LSU

Did the Ravens ever really replace C.J. Mosley? Not really, though that defense didn't have many weaknesses for the last few months of the season. Journeyman Josh Bynes took the reins, but he's a free agent, and general manager Eric DeCosta could upgrade with Queen, a fast, athletic, run-and-hit middle linebacker who is rising up boards because of his play down the stretch of LSU's title run. He was tremendous in the two College Football Playoff games, picking up four tackles for loss and 16 total tackles. This is a great fit. Baltimore also could address another spot in the front seven.

29. Tennessee Titans
Yetur Gross-Matos, DE, Penn State

The Titans are another team with a few big pending free agents, and their list includes quarterbacks Ryan Tannehill and Marcus Mariota, running back Derrick Henry, cornerback Logan Ryan and offensive tackle Jack Conklin. But they also have some uncertainty at edge rusher, with Kamalei Correa, who had five sacks, a free agent, and soon-to-be 38-year-old Cameron Wake coming back from a serious injury. Gross-Matos is a pick to help the competition on the other side of Harold Landry, who came into his own this season. Gross-Matos has long arms on his 6-foot-5 frame, and he is stellar against the run. He's not a quick-twitch pass-rusher like Young or Chaisson, but he's a solid player and hard worker. General manager Jon Robinson has an eye for talent, and it's a huge offseason for Tennessee.

30. Green Bay Packers
KJ Hamler, WR, Penn State

When Green Bay had two first-round picks a year ago, I thought surely it would use one on a receiver to help out Aaron Rodgers, who has had Davante Adams and a bunch of late-round picks for the past few seasons. But no, the Packers went defense on Day 1. And while their defense was improved, the dearth of talent behind Adams reared its head again, as the No. 2 non-running back pass-catcher was former undrafted wideout Allen Lazard. What does Rodgers have to do to get some help? Hamler, who at 5-foot-9 reminds me a little bit of Marquise Brown, is electric with the ball in his hands. He could rise even more after he works out at the combine. Offensive tackle could be another potential target for Green Bay.

 

[Skooby]

31. San Francisco 49ers
Grant Delpit, S, LSU

Can the 49ers hit a home run here like they did with their first two picks (Nick Bosa and Deebo Samuel) in 2019? That could be tough, with the Niners not picking again until the fifth round. That makes this pick extremely important -- they have to get a contributor, or trade down to pick up more assets. Delpit was getting top-10 buzz early in the season, but he didn't have a great year, fighting through an ankle injury and missing too many tackles. This feels like a good pairing, with San Francisco potentially losing Jimmie Ward in free agency. Delpit has a ton of talent, but I want to see how he tests at the combine in a few weeks.

32. Kansas City Chiefs
Noah Igbinoghene, CB, Auburn

OK, 49ers fans -- don't be mad at me for putting the Chiefs at No. 32; remember that we're using the projections from the ESPN Football Power Index, which favor Kansas City in the Super Bowl. Igbinoghene, a former wide receiver and track star at Auburn whose parents were both Olympic athletes, is another late-season riser, and he could light up the combine. He's still raw, but he has big-time upside, and I was really impressed by his improvement this season. The Chiefs have to get some more competition at cornerback. I debated Igbinoghene or LSU's Kristian Fulton here, but I'll give the edge for now to Igbinoghene. I also thought about J.K. Dobbins, my No. 2-ranked running back, adding to Andy Reid's toys around Patrick Mahomes.

 

[Da_Eggman]

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Complete 2020 college football recruiting grades

 

[Skooby]

How the Chiefs, 49ers get back to the Super Bowl

How the Kansas City Chiefs, San Francisco 49ers get back to the Super Bowl

MIAMI -- Look past the star power in Super Bowl LIV and you'll see two teams that made a series of smart decisions that contribute to winning. From late-round surprises to impact free-agent pickups, the rosters of the San Francisco 49ers and Kansas City Chiefs are well-stocked with success stories.

"The George Kittles and all that, the (Raheem) Mosterts, the Matt Breidas, Ben Garlands...we take a lot of pride in our synergy between the coaching staff and the front office and working together and seeing things the same way, and being very explicit in what exactly we're looking for," 49ers general manager John Lynch said. "I think that communication is where we've found success."

And when you find that synergy, flood the zone with long hours to make sure the pieces fit. That's the front-office plan of the Chiefs, whose quarterback brilliance sometimes overshadows the talent assembled around Patrick Mahomes.

"I don't think anybody is harder on what we do than ourselves," Chiefs general manager Brett Veach said. "We'll analyze every move we made, the directions we could have went. ... If we find talent, we're not shy to develop it."

Those are just a few reasons why both teams are positioned for future playoff runs. But sustaining a roster built for January requires a lot of patience, a lot of money and a bevy of tough decisions.

For the last entry of ESPN's Overhaul Tiers, here's a deep breakdown of how the 49ers and Chiefs got here, and where they go next:

Kansas City Chiefs


2019 record: 12-4, AFC champions
Average age of starters in 2019: 26.7 (eighth youngest in NFL)
Projected 2020 cap space: $16,825,621 (eighth least)
Big-ticket free agent: Chris Jones
Low-key important free agent: Kendall Fuller




Three sneaky-good moves that got them to Super Bowl LIV

• Finding second-round gems Mecole Hardman and Juan Thornhill: Hardman was redundant with Tyreek Hill in the lineup, but the offense is built around speed for Mahomes to utilize, and Hardman's versatile, explosive skill set gave Kansas City a potent fourth option whose role will only expand. Thornhill was thriving before his ACL injury, an instinctual safety with quickness to match safety mate Tyrann Mathieu. Championship teams do their most draft damage outside of the first round, and this is the perfect example.
• Benching LeSean McCoy: The Chiefs didn't panic when Damien Williams started slowly and worked through injuries. McCoy's fumbling problem resurfaced, and at age 31, he can't offset the lack of ball security with enough home-run plays. Andy Reid smartly turned to Williams, and even leaned into the running game late in the AFC Championship game against Tennessee.
• Prioritizing the pass rush with the Frank Clark signing: The Chiefs could have spent big money on defensive tackle Chris Jones, who's a free agent in March, but instead they utilized that money by swinging a massive trade for Clark. When both are healthy and wreaking havoc, the Chiefs are hard to stop on third downs. Giving Clark $63.5 million in guarantees is steep, but the pass rush market is exploding by the year, and Clark is better than anyone available this offseason. He also claims to give Kansas City's defense something it desperately needed: "Swagger," he said.

Biggest offseason questions

• When should the Chiefs pay Patrick Mahomes? Mahomes' two-year explosion intersects with a ballooning quarterback market at the perfect time. The one certainty is he'll surpass Russell Wilson's $35 million per year as the game's highest-paid quarterback sometime between now and next offseason. But both parties might have their reasons to wait. Many sources around the league believe Mahomes' agents will be eager to do a splash deal now. But waiting helps Mahomes for two reasons: He can let fellow 2018 draft-class mate Deshaun Watson set a new market, and he can get even more money with a fresh collective bargaining agreement if it gets done before March, which many people involved want. Meanwhile, the Chiefs have other pressing contract needs they could figure out with more time. Of course, stalling puts Kansas City under the mercy of a salary cap that's rising 7% or more per year. That means bigger payouts.

• How to proceed with Chris Jones' future? This one is complicated, because as one NFL exec points out, sometimes Jones looks like the best player in football, and other plays he disappears. The 10 or so flashes per game will probably get him close to $20 million per year on a new deal. The Chiefs would have to get creative financially to make that work. And sources say Jones strongly considered a holdout last summer, so the chances of him playing nice on a franchise tag appear bleak. This could be headed for a sign-and-trade with another team, giving Kansas City a top pick to use on a new defensive tackle and/or continue to develop Khalen Saunders.
• How much will it cost to keep Travis Kelce happy? Kelce has two years left on his contract, but has outplayed his $7.25 million salary for 2020, and wants the third contract. Tyreek Hill makes nearly twice as much as Kelce on average in his deal, but you could argue Kelce is more important to what the Chiefs do. "His ability to get open, to read zone coverages and his chemistry with [Mahomes] makes that offense special," one AFC exec said. "And he's a better blocker than given credit for." With Kittle about to blow the door off the tight end market, Kelce will want to join the party.

Free agent/cut decisions


Sammy Watkins' $14 million cap hit in 2020 will dangle throughout the offseason. Watkins doesn't seem keen on a restructure of that three-year, $48 million deal signed in 2018. He used this week's media sessions to threaten sitting out 2020. But Watkins' presence highlights the Chiefs' philosophical approach of situational signings. Watkins might be a 600 yards-per-year receiver in Kansas City, but his speed can be deadly in a playoff setting, as Watkins showed with 114 yards in the AFC Championship Game.


"We've been a playoff team since 2013, so when you make moves, you're not making moves to make the playoffs, per se. You're making moves to get to the next level," Veach said this week. "I think Sammy, when we signed him, we knew Pat was going to be in his first year and we wanted to surround him with a lot of speed and talent. We know that when we get into these big games, they are going to double Tyreek or Travis, Sammy will get ideal matchups. So certainly there was that aspect of, when we get to that level, having weapons they can't take away will help us get there."

That doesn't mean Kansas City can't find that next, cheaper weapon in free agency, but at least it can justify keeping Watkins at that number for one more year if it needs. Pass rusher Alex Okafor enters the last of a three-year deal at a $5.95 million cap hit. Given his injury issues this year, a clean break might be needed.




More offseason priorities

• Improve inside linebacker. Anthony Hitchens is still productive, but isn't a speed guy and needs help. The game is trending toward rangy linebackers with 4.4 speed, in the mold of Steelers' Devin Bush. Reggie Ragland's free agency gives Kansas City a chance to restock the position.
• Re-sign Kendall Fuller if the price is reasonable, then draft corner help.
• The Chiefs have all offensive line starters under contract for 2020, but using a top-three-round pick on a talented interior blocker will be key for future years.

San Francisco 49ers


2019 record: 13-3, NFC champions
Average age of starters in 2019: 26.6 (fourth youngest in NFL)
Projected 2020 cap space: $12,027,503 (sixth least)
Big-ticket free agent: Arik Armstead
Low-key important free agent: Jimmie Ward




Three sneaky-good moves that got them to Super Bowl LIV

• Developed serious offensive line depth: Seven different linemen started at least seven games this season thanks to injuries to Joe Staley, Mike McGlinchey and others. And the 49ers continued to run the ball past nearly every defensive line they faced. Kyle Shanahan's motion-heavy scheme and playmakers all over the field helped that case, but running the ball is still about good line play, and San Francisco got that from all areas. Guard Ben Garland has been a late-season playmaker on a one-year, $805,000 deal, the kind of bargain buy that helps change seasons.
• Gave the ball to Raheem Mostert late in the year: Shanahan left room in his potent three-man rushing attack for a bell cow to emerge, and during this seven-game stretch of at least 10 carries, Mostert is averaging 6.3 yards per attempt with 10 touchdowns. San Francisco's offense is at its best when its fastest running back is hitting the hole and cutting upfield. No dancing allowed.
• The Fred Warner effect: One of the 49ers' most underrated moves was drafting a 6-foot-3 pass rusher out of BYU and making him an effective inside linebacker. Some considered Warner a reach in the third round of the 2018 draft, but he has started every game, is highly productive and can make audibles for the defense. Warner's presence was huge when Kwon Alexander missed time with a torn pec.

 

[Skooby]

Biggest offseason questions

• How much is too much with Arik Armstead? A 49ers source said the team wants to re-sign Armstead, but believes he has played himself into big, big money. Armstead is a key component of the 49ers' defensive identity, with he and DeForest Buckner using length and strength to push the pocket while Nick Bosa and Dee Ford handle the rest. Good defensive tackles simply make too much for Armstead and his agent, Joel Segal, not to test the market at this point. The 49ers would be prudent to make contingency plans.

• When does tight end George Kittle get paid? Kittle's timing couldn't be better. He's arguably the best all-around player in a positional market that's capped at $10 million per year and needs a market reset. There's little chance Kittle plays out the last year of his rookie deal, but he must decide now whether waiting on Falcons tight end Austin Hooper to spark the market first is best for him. The team could get something done before the new league year to avoid any complications and unknowns with the new CBA. Either way, he'll soon be the richest tight end and should be.
• Is there a true No. 1 outside WR option in San Francisco's future? The only thing missing in San Francisco's offense is a traditional No. 1 wideout. The 49ers' passing game loves to work the middle of the field off play-action with tight ends, along with WRs Deebo Samuel and Emmanuel Sanders, but having a bigger receiver who could navigate the sideline would expand the possibilities for situational football. Veteran free agent A.J. Green would be a whole lot of fun in the Bay.

Free agent/cut decisions


Running back looms large here. The team can save $6.8 million with a post-June-1 cut of Jerick McKinnon, whose knee issues have shelved him for two seasons. But a source said McKinnon is in a good place coming off his last procedure and expects a big 2020, and since he's an ideal swiss-army-knife fit for Shanahan's offense, bringing him back might make sense if he checks out medically. It seems unlikely the team keeps McKinnon and Tevin Coleman, whose $4.9 million cap hit is hefty for a complementary tailback.

Moving on from receiver Marquise Goodwin's $5.125 million cap hit is a sensible move, after the veteran caught a combined 35 passes the past two years. Most of the 49ers' other contracts are totally sensible.




More offseason priorities

• Bring back Emmanuel Sanders. He loves San Francisco, should be reasonably priced at age 32, and is a willing blocker, a requirement in this offense.
• The 49ers probably need another defensive back in the draft. Jimmie Ward will have a market and Richard Sherman turns 32 in May.
• Preserving Kittle's health makes finding complementary tight end help paramount. Kittle has played through a torn labrum and takes a beating in the blocking game. Not that he can't handle it, but it would be smart to give the guy a few plays off.
• DeForest Buckner, a 2021, free agent, is good enough to get a big deal now. Moving on from Armstead might heighten Buckner's importance to the 49ers' books.

 

[Skooby]

Which team that made the playoffs in 2019 won't make it in 2020?
Matt Bowen, NFL analyst: Eagles. Unless they can make drastic upgrades at both cornerback and wide receiver, I could see them falling behind Dallas in the NFC East.

Mike Clay, fantasy writer: Bills. They put together a strong 10-6 campaign but benefited greatly from incredible and unsustainable injury luck (nearly every starter appeared in at least 16 games), as well as one of the league's easiest schedules. Life won't be as easy in 2020 with the likes of Kansas City, Seattle, Pittsburgh, San Francisco and Tennessee on the slate. A big third-year leap from Josh Allen will be needed to offset these concerns.

Jeremy Fowler, national NFL writer: Titans. The impressive run through the AFC playoffs won't translate in 2020, when Ryan Tannehill's numbers are bound to fall off and key pieces are headed to free agency. This won't be a drastic fall, but a 9-7 season could fall just short of the last wild-card spot in a wildly deep AFC picture. A rebound season from divisional foe Indianapolis won't help matters.


Dan Graziano, national NFL writer: Patriots. Yes, I went there. Tom Brady could leave, and the offense was already a disaster with him there in 2019. Watch the Bills or Jets swipe this thing out from under Bill Belichick with a 10-6 season and a tiebreaker.


Jason Reid, The Undefeated senior writer: Titans. Tannehill was stunningly efficient during the team's playoff push. Even a small drop in his production, which wouldn't be surprising, could throw things out of whack. Also, it wouldn't be shocking if all those carries caught up to Derrick Henry, who could sign a big deal in free agency.

Vikings. The team has made the playoffs three times under coach Mike Zimmer. In the first two instances, Minnesota failed to qualify in the following season. Although it has flown under the radar, this team has already overhauled its coaching staff, and its roster might require more turnover than many people realize.



Which team that didn't make the playoffs in 2019 will make it in 2020?
Clay: Steelers. Assuming quarterback Ben Roethlisberger returns, Pittsburgh will be a strong candidate for a bounce-back season. The Steelers have an outstanding young defensive core in place, and it helped them to an 8-8 season despite a dismal offensive performance that saw them average an embarrassing 1.1 touchdowns per game after Week 8. Add Roethlisberger to a good offensive line and an intriguing young wide receiver trio and the Steelers will be back in the tournament.

Fowler: Cowboys. Dallas should have been a playoff team in 2019 but clumsily lost at least three games it shouldn't have. The Cowboys will likely lose a few key pieces in free agency, but an underachieving defense should be better, and Kellen Moore in Year 2 as a playcaller will strike the right balance with Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott.

Mina Kimes, senior NFL writer: Cowboys. Prescott was terrific for most of the season, but the team fell apart (on both sides of the ball) down the stretch. A new coaching staff should revitalize a talented roster, which underachieved despite putting up a plus-113 point differential. Also watch for the Steelers to end a two-year playoff drought with Roethlisberger back.


Seifert: Steelers. This one is pretty simple. A team that went 8-6 after quarterback Roethlisberger's season-ending injury would seem to have a high probability of reaching 10 wins with him back healthy in 2020. Don't forget that the Steelers added two young and high-end defensive players during their lost season as well: linebacker Devin Bush and safety Minkah Fitzpatrick.

Raiders. They made some major strides this past season, including a highly productive rookie class. They will need to beef up the receiving corps for 2020, but with a pair of first-round picks in a wide receiver-rich draft, they should be able to do exactly that.



Where will Tom Brady be playing football in 2020?
Mike Reiss, Patriots reporter: Patriots. To simplify why I believe that is the most likely scenario: Brady still gives the Patriots the best chance to win -- which is the foundation for almost all of coach Bill Belichick's decisions -- and I don't believe the quarterback will hold them ransom in a contract negotiation (or that he truly wants to leave). That's why I put odds of Brady's return at 80%, always leaving open the possibility of the unexpected.

Graziano: Chargers. I think he's done in New England, and the Chargers need to get this done and put him on their season-ticket mailer envelopes in a big hurry. As my colleague Marcus Spears would say, take Gisele to the beach, Tom.

Kimes: Patriots. I expect Brady to sign another one-year deal with New England, largely because I don't think any of the other options make sense for him. Similarly, I don't think New England has many better alternatives, though I'd love to see the Patriots take a look at Teddy Bridgewater.


Reid: Patriots. Some really smart NFL executives and coaches have told me they could see him moving on. Still, though, I think he winds up back where he started.

Patriots. When Brady and the team agreed to a restructured contract before the season, the plan was to operate year to year. Here we are, and while the possibility exists he goes elsewhere, my best estimate is that he returns on another one-year deal.



Which team are you most interested in for the 2020 NFL draft?
Bowen: Chargers. With the anticipation that Philip Rivers moves on or retires, I want to see what the Chargers do with the No. 6 overall pick. L.A. has needs on the offensive line, but with the possibility that quarterbacks Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert are still on the board, I could see the Chargers drafting their replacement for Rivers here.

Clay: Dolphins. Miami won five of its final nine games of the season and will head into the 2020 offseason loaded with salary-cap space and draft capital, including three first-round picks. Despite the solid finish, the Dolphins still have several holes to fill, and it will be intriguing to see how much they can improve the roster in one offseason.

Fowler: Dolphins. They worked hard for this moment, trading any reasonably priced asset away for the right to select 14 times in April. Miami probably needs to hit on at least half of those, most importantly with a quarterback in the top 10. The roster simply isn't talented enough right now, but man, the upside under Brian Flores is enticing.


Seifert: Dolphins. Accumulating draft capital has been their central goal for the past 12 months. Now it's time to find out whether they can do a good job using it. They have five of the top 56 picks. How much of it will they blow on finding a quarterback, and how much will be left over for other positions?

Lions. There are three prospects in this class who are regarded -- if healthy --- as franchise cornerstones: quarterback Joe Burrow, pass-rusher Chase Young and Tagovailoa. The Lions pick third and could be an ideal trade-up slot for teams looking at the top quarterback prospects. It could lead to quite a haul for a team with several needs.

 

[Skooby]

What's your way-too-early Super Bowl LV pick?
Bowen: Chiefs over Cowboys. With the expectation that Dallas re-signs both quarterback Dak Prescott and wide receiver Amari Cooper and upgrades the defensive secondary, the talent is there to make a run in coach Mike McCarthy's first season. But give me Kansas City as the early favorite to win the title. That offense is dangerous with Super Bowl MVP Patrick Mahomes, and the Chiefs' defense will continue to develop under Steve Spagnuolo's aggressive approach.

Clay: Ravens over Saints. With MVP Lamar Jackson, their ability to consistently produce a strong defense and John Harbaugh being a step or two ahead of most coaches in decision-making, the Ravens should be right back in the thick of things. Most of the Saints' 2019 starters are under contract for 2020, so New Orleans will be a strong threat if quarterback Drew Brees is back.


Fowler: Seahawks over Bills. Both teams are a few pieces away. Seattle will pick up another stretch-the-field receiver, get faster on defense and let Russell Wilson do the rest off play-action. I like everything about the Bills' rebuild, and if quarterback Josh Allen makes a sizable Year 3 leap, there's little reason they can't push through the AFC field with that defense and running game.


Graziano: Eagles over Colts. I don't know who's going to be in next season's Super Bowl. What I do know is that a lot of stuff is going to happen in 2020 that no one saw coming. If you had polled 6,000 people at this time last year, none of them would have had the 49ers in Super Bowl LIV. Give me a bounce-back for Carson Wentz and Doug Pederson, and let's say the Colts upgrade at quarterback and muscle past the Titans and Texans in the AFC South.

Kimes: Chiefs over 49ers. While Kansas City could give Mahomes a huge contract this offseason, it has enough talent on both sides of the ball under contract to stay in contention next season; San Francisco has a similar window, though great defensive play is harder to reproduce year to year.

Reid: Chiefs over 49ers. Having Mahomes, and so much receiving talent around him, puts Kansas City ahead of the pack in the AFC. In the NFC, Kyle Shanahan, the son of a two-time Super Bowl winner, will continue to forge his own legacy as a top-notch coach.

Seifert: Chiefs over Seahawks. The truth is the Seahawks were a half-yard away from securing postseason home-field advantage in the NFC this past season. They weren't far away, and general manager John Schneider is good at rebuilding on the fly. The Chiefs will contend every year as long as Mahomes is their quarterback.

Chiefs over Saints. This mirrors the two teams that I had in my preseason picks for this past season, so I apologize for the lack of creativity. Alas, Kansas City looks primed for a sustained run, while I expect the Saints to have at least one more year of a Drew Brees-led buzz saw on offense.



Who's your pick to be next season's MVP?
Bowen: Patrick Mahomes. It's almost too easy to pick him here. But when healthy, he's the league's best player at a prime position. And in Kansas City, Mahomes plays in a system that generates top-end numbers given the playcalling of Andy Reid, plus the combination of blazing speed and matchup ability at the skill spots.

Clay: Kyler Murray. Murray will follow the lead of Mahomes in 2018 and Lamar Jackson in 2019 by taking over the league in his second professional season. The 2019 first overall pick accounted for 24 touchdowns and ranked ninth among quarterbacks in total offensive yards as a rookie. The versatile 22-year-old should have a better supporting cast in 2020.


Fowler: Matthew Stafford. Mahomes is still the game's best player, but Stafford was playing really good football before his midseason back issues. If he leads Detroit to contention, which isn't so far-fetched considering the talent around him, he'll be in the MVP mix because he puts up numbers and the NFC North is as open as Kenny Golladay.

Graziano: Carson Wentz. I trust Philadelphia's front office to fix its problems this offseason, and Wentz just had a mostly healthy season and is ready to make a run at MVP glory for an Eagles team I picked to win the Super Bowl only a few paragraphs ago.

Kimes: Patrick Mahomes. He's the best player in the league, and if he's healthy next season, there's no reason he shouldn't win another MVP award.

Reid: Patrick Mahomes. Even with the spectacular, breakthrough season that Lamar Jackson had, Mahomes is the game's best player. Repeatedly, he reminds us of that fact, including in his Super Bowl MVP performance Sunday night.

Seifert: Russell Wilson. Frankly, Wilson would have been the MVP in 2019 had Jackson not emerged with a unique and singular performance. Wilson remains in his athletic prime -- he will be only 31 when the 2020 season begins -- and is bound to be recognized one of these years. It would help, of course, if the Seahawks would shift from their run-based offense.

Patrick Mahomes. The logic could be as simple as "I flipped a coin and it landed on Mahomes," with Jackson being the other side. For a slightly more nuanced explanation, I'll simply point out that he's the most prolific young passing quarterback I've ever seen and in a position to keep that up with his excellent pass-catchers.



Which team should be the early favorite to pick No. 1 overall in the 2021 draft?
Bowen: Bengals. With the assumption that Cincinnati drafts LSU quarterback Joe Burrow at No. 1 in April, this team could get to the five- or six-win mark. Looking at the deficiencies on the defensive side of the ball, however, Burrow's upside isn't enough to keep the Bengals out of the top spot for the second consecutive season.

Clay: Jaguars. Jacksonville has a lot of work to do this offseason to get out of this discussion. It is on a short list of teams without a clear answer at quarterback, and the defense isn't what it was two seasons ago, especially with Jalen Ramsey gone and Yannick Ngakoue headed to free agency.

Fowler: Jaguars. The Bengals, Dolphins and even Panthers could be in the mix here, but Jacksonville's outlook appears bleak. There's no franchise quarterback, elite pass-catchers are scarce and key defensive pieces are either aging, already gone or on their way out.


Graziano: Panthers. Come on, guys. The signs are all right in front of us. It's Rebuild City down in Carolina right now. Luke Kuechly retired. Greg Olsen is out. Cam Newton ... who knows? A new coach who has never done this before in the NFL and is known in college for full-on rebuild projects. The Panthers are tearing it down to the bare bones and asking Matt Rhule to build it back up.

Kimes: Bengals. Even with the addition of the ridiculously gifted Burrow, this team lacks talent on both sides of the ball and doesn't have enough cap space to dramatically improve.

Reid: Bengals. The Bengals have crater-sized holes throughout their roster, and one could write a book about the reconstruction that needs to occur on defense. And a long book at that.

Seifert: Dolphins. Coach Brian Flores coaxed five wins from this overmatched group in 2019, in part because of some legendary individual performances from quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick. But the history of Fitzpatrick's second season as a starter for various teams isn't good. A regression of one or two wins would be enough to be in the mix for the top pick.

Yates: Bengals. It's uncommon for a team to draft first overall in back-to-back years, but Cincy might have the inside track for the first pick in 2021. There are significant gaps to fill on defense and enough work still to do along the offensive line to give me pause about the strides they will make next season, although I am bullish on Burrow's future. Who isn't?

 

[Skooby]

Buster Olney: Picking best bets in 2020 MLB over/under win totals

TAMPA, Fla. -- When the guy in your office fantasy football league picks a kicker in the second round, there aren't any serious ramifications. Yes, his entry fee is sacrificed, and in every draft thereafter, there is a small price of shame when somebody brings up that big mistake to great laughter. But really, no big deal.

When casinos project win totals for teams, however, setting over/unders, there could be major ramifications, so you assume they're working from strong information. Unlike that guy who jumped on Justin Tucker many rounds too early.

This is why it's a fun annual exercise to dig through the over/unders and wonder: What do they know that we don't? Or what don't they know? Like last year, when some of the initial lines on the Orioles were set at 59½ wins -- after Baltimore when 47-115 in 2018, and months after they had traded Manny Machado and slashed their payroll to the exoskeleton. The idea that the Orioles' win total would climb by 13 after the team did absolutely nothing to get better, especially in the highly competitive AL East, seemed very far-fetched -- and sure enough, Baltimore fell well short of that figure, winning only 54 games.

What about 2020? I can't bet and I don't bet, but here are some over/unders from Caesars that look really interesting.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 84½ wins. I'd jump on the over. Mike Hazen and his staff completed the heavy lifting on a lot of financial restructuring in 2019 -- after dealing Paul Goldschmidt, they swapped Zack Greinke to the Astros -- and Arizona still won 85 games. With their payroll in order, the Diamondbacks added this offseason, spending big on Madison Bumgarner, trading for Starling Marte (which allows them to shift Ketel Marte back to second base) and signing Kole Calhoun. The two big X factors are Zac Gallen, who was excellent in 15 starts in his rookie season, posting a 2.81 ERA, and veteran left-hander Robbie Ray. This club has the look of a 90- to 92-win team that competes for the No. 1 wild-card spot.


Minnesota Twins: 92½ wins. I'd be very comfortable taking the over, albeit without the same level of enthusiasm as the D-backs bet. The Los Angeles Dodgers, Houston Astros and New York Yankees were superpowers last year, but the Twins won 101 games last year and set a record for home runs. And this winter, they added third baseman Josh Donaldson, who brings even more power and depth to the lineup. There are questions about the rotation, for sure, but there were last year too, and with Derek Falvey, Thad Levine and Rocco Baldelli, the Twins' leadership is proving to be very good at problem-solving. The AL Central will be more competitive this year, with the White Sox making a push and the Royals' young pitchers maturing, but Minnesota should hammer its way to a lot of wins.

Detroit Tigers: 57½ wins. I'd comfortably take the under, working off the same premise that applied to the Orioles last year: Why would this team, which went 47-114 last season, be 11 wins better in 2020? The division is more competitive, and the Tigers, in the midst of a rebuild, haven't made any significant acquisitions. They traded their best hitter, Nicholas Castellanos, in the midst of last season, and haven't really replaced him. Miguel Cabrera had a rough year in '19, and with the future Hall of Famer turning 37 in April, there's no reason to believe he's going to be better as he ages. And if some of the free agents signed by the Tigers hit well in the first half, Detroit should (and probably would) capitalize on its trade value and deal them by the July 31 deadline.

Cleveland Indians: 86½ wins. I'd take the over. Indians fans have been conditioned to anticipate the departure of yet another star as the front office manages its modest payroll. Trevor Bauer was traded last summer, Corey Kluber was dealt earlier this offseason, and folks in other front offices believe that Francisco Lindor is going to be traded by July 31. But you know what? Since Terry Francona took over, the Indians have won a lot of games, year after year after year.

2013: 92
2014: 85
2015: 81
2016: 94
2017: 102
2018: 91
2019: 93

In only two of the past seven seasons have the Indians compiled fewer than 87 wins, and it's not as if they suffered big losses from last year's 93-win team; Kluber was hurt most of the year and Bauer was inconsistent. Meanwhile, Mike Clevinger and Shane Bieber are two of the AL's best young starting pitchers, and the Indians will probably have Lindor for much of the season, before the front office has to make a hard choice. The everyday lineup may well be better that it was last year.

The emergence of the Twins and the Chicago White Sox will complicate the Indians' effort to reach the postseason, but in a really polarized American League, Cleveland should win a lot of games.


Elsewhere around the major leagues

• There's so much at stake for the Dodgers and Boston Red Sox in the potential Mookie Betts swap that you would assume that some way, somehow, the two sides will find a way to push the negotiations across the finish line. The Red Sox probably have too few avenues to offload tens of millions of dollars of salary in the way they can by attaching David Price's contract to Betts, and the Dodgers could really use the emotional jolt after a devastating playoff loss in 2019.

But the longer this takes to finish, anxiety within the Boston leadership seems to be building. At the time that elements of the deal were first reported, a rival executive noted that Derek Falvey, who leads the Twins' baseball operations, has a deep understanding of pitching, and in this exec's eyes, if Falvey is willing to give up Brusdar Graterol, the hardest thrower in the minors, then there must be some doubt about him. The Red Sox might have some concern about that, or Graterol's medical history. Or perhaps it's the natural revulsion some of their fans feel about trading Betts, one of the best players in the game. Or the word going around that Alex Verdugo, the big piece that the Red Sox would get, hasn't been a perfect teammate.

But multiple evaluators with other clubs believe that Boston's end of the proposed deal is pretty good -- adding in the savings on Price's contract, close to $50 million of the $96 million remaining. Price is 34 and pitching with some kind of mitigating condition in his elbow.

"What you have to ask yourself is, what would Price get if he was a free agent today?" said one official. Some estimates on that ranged from one year at $12 million, to $18 million over two years.

If the Betts deal with the Dodgers falls apart, then the Red Sox will be faced with exactly the same quandaries they've had all winter. If you start the season with Betts on the roster and the team is on the fringe of the wild-card contention in July, do you run the risk of angering the fan base even more by dealing him in the middle of a playoff race? Do you run the risk of retaining him and then seeing him walk away for almost nothing when he becomes a free agent next fall? And what do you do with the expensive group of starting pitchers -- Price, Nathan Eovaldi, Chris Sale -- if they struggle in the first half or break down? There are just not going to be a lot of opportunities for the Red Sox to trim their payroll in a meaningful way.

• The biggest question in Yankees camp is who will emerge in the competition for the No. 5 spot in the rotation, given that New York is already down two starting pitchers. Domingo German will serve the rest of his 81-game suspension into early June, under baseball's domestic violence policy, and James Paxton is out for the next few months following back surgery. So Aaron Boone will have to identify a starter to fill out the last spot behind Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino, Masahiro Tanaka and J.A. Happ, with Jordan Montgomery, Michael King and Luis Cessa among those who will compete this spring.

• The Padres continue to load up on their bullpen, adding veteran Emilio Pagan to what could be an excellent relief corps: closer Kirby Yates in front of Drew Pomeranz, Craig Stammen and others. As the 2019 Mets can attest, bullpen performance can be so volatile that expected excellence can turn into disaster quickly, but on paper, San Diego might have the best group of relievers in the NL West, as the Padres try to close the gap with the Dodgers.

The Padres were smart to deal Manuel Margot now, because it's possible that with another lackluster offensive performance in 2020, his trade value would have evaporated almost entirely as he climbs the arbitration ladder. Margot, 25, will make $2.48 million this year, after his first pass through arbitration.

• Presumably, the Rays will do with Margot what the Rays always do -- present specific information to the player about possible adjustments that will help him. The Rays will play a lot of games with what will be baseball's best defensive outfield: Kevin Kiermaier in center, flanked by Margot and Renfroe on the corners.

• We keep waiting for someone with the Astros to completely own the sign-stealing operation, to be totally transparent and honest about what happened. On the day Jim Crane fired Jeff Luhnow and AJ Hinch, Crane was asked whether the scandal affected the legacy of the team's accomplishments of 2017, and he said no. The other day, in an interview on MLB Network, Hinch was asked a similar question and demurred, responding that everyone has to draw their own conclusion.

The correct answer is, of course the sign stealing affects the legacy and taints what happened in the 2017 World Series. When the 1919 World Series is brought up, the team that beat the White Sox, the Cincinnati Reds, is almost an afterthought. What history highlights is the fact that Chicago players conspired with gamblers and tried to lose. And what will be remembered about the Astros' run through the 2017 World Series is that Houston had a competitive advantage, day after day after day, by breaking the rules about the use of technology. "How could it not be tainted?" one rival executive asked incredulously, after hearing Hinch's non-answer on the subject.

Of course it damaged the sport and its competitive integrity.

 

[Skooby]

Hinch apologized for what he did and acknowledged that this happened on his watch. But it should be remembered that this was not just an isolated moment of wrongdoing. Where Hinch stood in the dugout for home games was about 30 feet from the infamous trash can; yes, he heard the banging, loud and clear, game after game, day after day.

Despite his stated reservations about the whole thing, he said nothing to the players or his staff to stop it throughout the 2017 season; he expressed no concerns or remorse throughout the 2018 postseason as MLB investigated the Astros' placement of a spy next to the Cleveland and Boston dugouts; and he had the temerity to publicly mock the Yankees after they complained (again) to Major League Baseball about concerns over whistling coming from the Houston dugout. His only apparent contrition, after years of accumulated knowledge, came after Mike Fiers spoke up to The Athletic.

And the whole Hinch interview had a weird vibe, as if the league is working with Hinch -- who is smart, capable, eminently likable -- to rehabilitate his image for his eventual return to work. MLB has strongly discouraged staffers from speaking publicly on the sign stealing, yet it provided Hinch an hourlong platform on its network, replayed over and over.



Social media vs. MLB
How the internet helped crack the Astros' sign-stealing case. Joon Lee »

• Passan: Buzzers, burner accounts and conspiracies: Inside a day of epic chaos



The rehab of the Houston staffers seemed to begin with commissioner Rob Manfred's report itself, which included the lines: "[T]he 2017 scheme in which players banged on a trash can was, with the exception of [Alex] Cora, player-driven and player-executed. The attempt by the Astros' replay review room staff to decode signs using the center-field camera was originated and executed by lower-level baseball operations employees working in conjunction with Astros players and Cora."

Which seems a really unusual conclusion, given that MLB had obtained front office emails sent to general manager Jeff Luhnow, which was revealed in a story published by The Wall Street Journal on Friday -- emails he said he didn't read all the way through despite the dark euphemisms attached to the concepts. The investigators concluded that they couldn't absolutely prove that he had read the emails, so the emails were omitted from the final report. But it would seem to be just as impossible to say, with certainty, that the 2017 scheme was entirely player-driven, player-executed, with Cora as the only staffer involved.

When asked about Fiers, Hinch said, in so many words, that he hadn't really talked to Fiers, which seemed like an odd answer for someone expressing remorse and regret. A better and more contrite answer would have been: I understand Mike's decision to speak up because I felt the same pangs of guilt, and I fully support him.

When Hinch was asked about the buzzer system allegedly used by the 2019 Astros, he could've given an easy yes or no. Instead, he gave a very lawyerly answer, saying he believed the findings of the commissioner's investigation, effectively declining to say yes or no.

Regarding that non-answer, it has been asked that, with Manfred's report not finding anything to it, don't we at some point have to believe what those in charge are telling us?

The answer to that for fans and media is: No. Absolutely not.

Because there's been so much muddying of the waters, so much lying and so little personal accountability, we don't know what -- or who -- to believe. It doesn't feel like anyone involved in this has been completely transparent. For an industry that requires the trust of fans as they decide whether to make emotional and financial investment in the sport, this could be an enormous problem.

Manfred hinted the other day that he'll announce new technology guidelines in the near future.

It would be a good time to streamline the process and cut-and-paste these words: "No player who illicitly uses technology to gain an advantage in a ballgame; no player who undertakes or intends to illicitly use technology to win a ballgame; no player who sits in a conference with a bunch of crooked players aiming to illicitly use technology will ever play professional baseball."

And Manfred can order that these words, many borrowed from Kenesaw Mountain Landis' ruling about the 1919 Chicago Black Sox, be posted on every clubhouse door and at the mouth of every dugout. Add, in boldface: "If you cheat, you'll be banned for life."

That penalty will sufficiently discourage Dark Arts, Codebreaker or any other scheme and perhaps prevent Major League Baseball from being dragged through an episode like this again.

 

[Skooby]

How long will Mike Trout be the best player in baseball?
By Bradford Doolittle



You might have noticed that I am asked to rank things from time to time. And who doesn't love a good ranking? Within that genre, the lowest-hanging fruit would seem to be simply rating the best players in MLB. The results are a matter of preference. How do you define best? What methodology did you use? What are the numbers underpinning your rankings?

For years now in baseball, this most basic of analysis topics has been completely, utterly undramatic. The answer has simply been: Mike Trout is the best player in baseball. If your method tells you something different, then the credibility of that method is hanging by a thread.

Yet last year, in conjunction with the release of our annual ranking of baseball's top 100 players, I was asked to poke around the topic. Trout topped our collaborative rankings for the sixth consecutive season. The questions to examine: Did my methods of answering the "best in the game" question agree? (They had better.) And would it be possible for anyone to catch Trout during the 2020 season? (Not really.)

Trout rendered the question moot by going out and winning his third American League MVP award, hitting .291/.438/.645 with 45 homers and 104 RBIs. Only a late-season foot injury prevented Trout from putting up his first 50-homer season. That's probably bad news for wanna-be Trout usurpers. He still has something left to shoot for. But within this paragraph, there are two essential threads to the same story -- Trout's continued greatness and that late-season injury.

Here we are again. Trout began last season as the unquestioned best player in baseball. He won another MVP award and deserved it. And thus, once again, any update on the central question is inherently undramatic. Of course Trout still is the best player in the game. Mike Trout is the best player in baseball. Mike Trout is the best player in baseball. Wash, rinse, repeat.

Still, if you dig in under the hood, Trout's lead over the rest of baseball might be shrinking. And it's possible that it has shrunk enough that he could conceivably be surpassed in the coming season. It's not likely to happen. Not likely at all. But it's less impossible than it was a year ago at this time.



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My definition of how to define "best in the game" ought to be re-explained. It's one I settled on while doing similar types of analysis while covering the NBA. You'd have a player not named LeBron James bob up and win an MVP award. Then there would be a smattering of think pieces wondering if James had relinquished his throne as the world's best basketball player. He hadn't. He'd either win the MVP award the next season, or be right back in the running, where he remains 17 seasons into his unparalleled career.

It's like that with Trout. Trout has led the majors in Baseball-Reference.com WAR, to cite just one metric, only three times in his career. He hasn't done it since 2016. Last season, he ranked third behind Cody Bellinger and Alex Bregman. The season before, he finished second to Mookie Betts. But he has been in the top three in seven of the past eight seasons, ranking 10th in 2017. The players who have finished ahead of Trout in bWAR at least once since 2012:

Corey Kluber (twice)
Aaron Judge
Alex Bregman
Andrelton Simmons
Bryce Harper
Clayton Kershaw
Cody Bellinger
Giancarlo Stanton
Joey Votto
Jose Altuve
Jose Ramirez
Max Scherzer
Mookie Betts
Nolan Arenado
Zack Greinke

Only Kluber has done it more than once. That, more than anything, is why Trout has never come close to giving up his best-in-game title. It takes more than one season to topple the king of a sport. Armed with that knowledge, I decided to rank players based on rolling five-year averages. The five-year window includes the season in question, the two before it, and the two after it. The method requires us to project seasons that have yet to happen, but that's only an issue for the two most recent campaigns. The idea is to create a snapshot of the baseline ability of a player at a given time.

Here's where the rankings fell entering the 2019 season:

1. Mike Trout (173.1 five-year win shares)
2. Mookie Betts (149.3)
3. Christian Yelich (145.6)
4. Alex Bregman (140.3)
5. Jose Altuve (134.5)
6. Freddie Freeman (130.6)
7. Anthony Rendon (130.3)
8. Francisco Lindor (129.8)
9. Nolan Arenado (127.8)
10. Charlie Blackmon (122.6)

I created this database using win shares, the Bill James invention, getting the data from TheBaseballGauge.com. I like win shares for these kinds of backward-looking exercises, though I acknowledge that the metric has its detractors and flaws. For this kind of thing, I think they work well. I don't like the way bWAR divides credit for pitching and defense, and I don't love the way that FanGraphs WAR is so reliant on defense-independent pitching when it comes to probing the past. None of these bottom-line measures is anything close to perfect. For this exercise, I use win shares.

 

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The numbers are different from last year's piece because I decided to add the projection element for the missing seasons. This allows for better cross-era comparisons. The projections more or less assume a player will continue along his recent trajectory, with basic aging factors worked in.

OK, with that stuff out of the way, we can see why it was basically impossible for anyone to pass Trout. Even if he had somehow zeroed out on win shares in 2019, his five-year mark would have remained in the top five. However, the gap has closed somewhat. Here is the new top 10 as spring training approaches:

1. Mike Trout (171.2 five-year win shares)
2. Alex Bregman (168.8)
3. Christian Yelich (156.3)
4. Mookie Betts (150.9)
5. Cody Bellinger (144.8)
6. Anthony Rendon (137.7)
7. Francisco Lindor (130.9)
8. Nolan Arenado (127.8)
9. Freddie Freeman (126.8)
10. Marcus Semien (122.3)

Just as Bregman and Bellinger outpaced Trout in bWAR in 2019, they did the same in win shares, with Bregman leading the majors at 34.7, Bellinger coming in second at 33.9 and Trout finishing third at 33.5. That launched Bellinger into the top 10 for the first time, but Bregman was already there. Both players are younger than Trout, who is coming off his age-27 season. Thus the projection part of the formula sees Bregman and Bellinger continuing to rise a bit, while Trout is more likely to plateau. (Plateau at a historically good level, but still a plateau.)

Thus with the forecast five-year window that's in play here, it suddenly seems possible that if Trout has a so-so year and Bregman continues to get even better, he could slip past Trout in next year's rankings. However, it seemed like Betts might be poised to make a similar move last year, and he was merely really good in 2019 instead of Trout-level great. That's the thing with Trout: He's that good every year, and you have to sustain your advantage over him for two or three years to steal his crown. No one has been able to even come close to doing it.

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Trout ranks No. 1 by this best-in-game method for the sixth consecutive season, mirroring his streak atop our MLB Rank consensus ratings at ESPN. It's not a record reign, but it is historic. Here are the longest best-in-game reigns by my methodology:

Barry Bonds (14, 1990-2003)
Babe Ruth (13, 1918-30)
Mike Schmidt (8, 1977-84)
Albert Pujols (7, 2004-10)
Honus Wagner (7, 1902-08)
Mickey Mantle (7, 1954-60)
Mike Trout (6, 2014-19)
Ty Cobb (6, 1912-17)

Stan Musial had two separate best-in-game game reigns that totaled seven years, so he deserves a most honorable mention. As he has in so many ways, Trout is keeping heady company. If he can keep doing what he's doing, it's easy to envision him at least catching and passing Schmidt. That said, Trout's margin for error is shrinking. Here's his calculation for five-year win shares for each of the past six years, with his advantage over second place:

2014: 196.9, plus-42.4 over second place
2015: 190.0, plus-47.5
2016: 188.3, plus-33.5
2017: 180.6, plus-38.7
2018: 173.1, plus-23.8
2019: 171.2, plus-2.4

It's headed the wrong direction, which kind of flies in the face of the narrative that Trout just keeps getting better and better. In many ways, that's certainly true. His OPS+ totals for each of the past three years (186, 198, 185) are all well above his career-best total before that, which was 179 in 2013. The problem, and the reason others have gained ground in these metrics that are a mash of efficiency and cumulative production, is simply that he has missed too many games.


From 2013 to 2016, Trout played in a minimum of 157 games per season. Over the past three years, his season-by-season totals have been 114, 140 and 134. Bregman, on the other hand, has been at 155, 157 and 156. Bellinger has been at 132 (his rookie year), 162 and 156. On a pro rata basis, Trout stands alone. But you can't help your team if you're not in the lineup.

Let's say Trout had appeared in 150 games in each of the past three seasons, while producing win shares at the same rate. If that had been the case, his five-year win shares total would be 187.8. His lead over Bregman, Betts, Bellinger and any other B-named All-Stars would still be monumental.

That's the bottom line, really. On a per-game basis, Trout still produces more value for the Angels than any other player does for his team. It's still not particularly close. If he's going to lose his title as best player in baseball anytime soon, it's going to be because of the kinds of injuries that have robbed him of so many games in recent years. It's the exact same reason Mickey Mantle eventually lost his crown to Willie Mays back in the early 1960s, and he never got it back.

Trout takes a lot better care of himself than Mantle ever did, and his injuries have largely been a matter of bad luck. (Though, once again, I beseech you, Mike, to stop diving into bases.) Luck has a way of evening out. Age will play a part in this too, but Trout is only 28. It's been written many times that in sports, health is a skill. It's also been written many times that Trout has found a way to fix every suboptimal component in his skill set. If he can do that with injuries, and stay on the field for 150 or more games for the next few years, there is no reason he can't retain his title for the foreseeable future.

But if Trout again finds himself enduring long stays on the injured list, others are poised to take his place atop the ratings. Perhaps as soon as this season. All they have to do is keep out-Trouting Trout, something no one over the past decade has been able to do.

Three little things
1. It's probably just a social media phenomenon and thus not a phenomenon at all, but I've noticed a common concern about the new three-batter minimum rule. The idea is this: To skirt the new restriction, pitchers will simply fake an arm injury. I'm skeptical this would become a widespread practice, but I guess it's possible a wily manager might pick a crucial time to instruct a lefty reliever to suddenly "feel something" when a daunting right-handed hitter waits on deck.



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It seems to me that there are a lot of common-sense ways to monitor this, not the least of which is simple umpire discretion. Still, I want to point out one fan's idea for what strikes me as an obvious fix to this as-of-now non-problem: If a pitcher has to be removed from a game before he has met the minimum, the opposing manager gets to pick the guy who trots in from the bullpen.

This is a precise mirror of basketball's rule that allows a coach to pick the opponent's free throw shooter if the player who gets fouled can't take the charity tosses. Thus the Ken "The Animal" Bannisters of the world don't have an easy out if they get fouled at a crucial moment.

As a reminder, we haven't seen an official announcement from MLB about any on-field rule changes that will be in effect for 2020. Thus, assuming the three-batter rule goes into effect as is widely assumed, we don't yet know what safeguards will be spelled out to prevent the kind of gamesmanship that we know teams are willing to engage in. However, I don't see a downside to the control suggested here.

2. After the details about the Betts blockbuster trade surfaced, everyone understandably started to slobber over the Dodgers' new prospective everyday lineup. Count me among them. (More on that in Little Thing No. 3.) On SportsCenter, we ran a graphic that highlighted the six L.A. regulars who have been All-Stars, with the two exceptions being highly touted second-year players Will Smith at catcher and Gavin Lux at second base. Both could well be future All-Stars.

One of the things that jumped out at me is how quickly we've adapted to the idea of "Max Muncy, All-Star." He's all of that, and not just in the literal sense that he earned a spot on the National League squad at the 2019 Midsummer Classic. Over the past two years, Muncy has emerged as one of the best hitters in baseball. During that span, Muncy ranks 17th in bWAR among position players and 15th in wins above average. His .256/.381/.545 line translates to a three-way tie for seventh in OPS+ among players with at least 800 plate appearances. The players he's tied with are Aaron Judge and Anthony Rendon.

 

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Muncy is a very 2020 kind of hitter in that batting average is easily the least important part of his slash line. He's a take-and-rake slugger supreme straight out of the nightmares of the anti-analytics crowd. For all his strikeouts, he's consistent, with little variance in home-road performance (.860 home OPS; .870 road) or against pitcher handedness (.860 against lefties; .882 against righties). He can flat-out hit, all while being versatile enough to play three infield positions.

It's easy to forget Muncy's origins. This is someone whose entire age-26 season in 2017 was spent in the minors. He didn't earn a big league spot at the outset of 2018 either, but by the end of that season, he was starting and homering in the World Series. On Thursday, we got the news that the Dodgers had reached an agreement on a three-year, $26 million extension with Muncy. And while it's not a huge contract by MLB standards and has the potential to actually be team-friendly, the fact is Muncy has achieved a level of long-term security he could not have dreamed of less than two years ago.

I don't know if Muncy's story is merely tangential to the ongoing saga about the effects of analytics in baseball, or if the two stories are intertwined. I don't want to take Muncy's persistence and adaptability out of the equation. However, I can't help but think Muncy has benefited immensely from the use of metrics in scouting and development. And as long as metrics can keep giving us stories like the one of Max Muncy, I'm going to chalk that up as a vote in favor of the influence of analytics.

3. Just last week, I went to all the trouble of forecasting the best everyday lineups for every team. Then the Dodgers, Angels, Red Sox and Twins had to mess it up by conspiring to a complicated set of maneuvers that ended up sending Betts, one of baseball's five best players, to the Dodgers. After updating my depth charts and projected lineups, here is the new pecking order. Teams are ranked by projected runs created per 600 plate appearances for their anticipated base lineup:

1. Los Angeles Dodgers (97.2; Previous: 2)
2. Houston Astros (96.5; Previous: 1)
3. New York Mets (93.8; Previous: 3)
4. Los Angeles Angels (90.3; Previous: 4)
5. Chicago Cubs (90.1; Previous: 5)
6. Oakland Athletics (89.1; Previous: 6)
7. Atlanta Braves (88.7; Previous: 7)
8. New York Yankees (87.7; Previous: 9)
9. San Diego Padres (87.3; Previous: 10)
10. Washington Nationals (86.9; Previous: 11)
11. Minnesota Twins (86.4; Previous: 12)
12. Chicago White Sox (86.1; Previous: 13)
13. Boston Red Sox (85.8; Previous: 8)
14. Milwaukee Brewers (85.5; Previous: 14)
15. Tampa Bay Rays (84.3; Previous: 15)
16. Philadelphia Phillies (83.8; Previous: 16)
17. Cincinnati Reds (82.9; Previous: 17)
18. Cleveland Indians (82.7; Previous: 18)
19. St. Louis Cardinals (81.3; Previous: 19)
20. Toronto Blue Jays (80.9; Previous: 20)
21. Pittsburgh Pirates (80.4; Previous: 21)
22. Seattle Mariners (79.2; Previous: 22)
23. Arizona Diamondbacks (79.0; Previous: 23)
24. Texas Rangers (78.6; Previous: 24)
25. Miami Marlins (77.6; Previous: 25)
26. San Francisco Giants (77.4; Previous: 26)
27. Kansas City Royals (77.4; Previous: 27)
28. Colorado Rockies (75.6; Previous: 28)
29. Detroit Tigers (73.5; Previous: 29)
30. Baltimore Orioles (73.1; Previous: 30)

 

[Skooby]

Which clubs will rise to superteam status in 2020?
By Craig Edwards
FanGraphs

Over the past few years, 100-win seasons have become commonplace. The Houston Astros and New York Yankees have won at least 100 games in each of the past two seasons, while the Los Angeles Dodgers have averaged more than 100 wins over the past three years -- and seem likely to do so again after trading for Mookie Betts.

Major League Baseball is seeing more high-end teams enjoy sustained success at the top of the sport, but that success can be fleeting. We've seen a potential Cubs dynasty unravel, and teams in Boston and Cleveland have taken steps backward as well. Even the reigning world champion Nationals have had inconsistent success despite tremendous talent on their roster each season.

Right now, the Yankees, Astros and Dodgers can be clearly classified as baseball's superteams given their track record over the past few seasons. All three will head into the 2020 season with high expectations to contend. The more interesting question is which teams might join that trio -- or even displace them -- in the coming years. For each league, I've chosen a prime contender and a wild card or two.



American League: Tampa Bay Rays



How might the Rays break into the ranks of the Dodgers and Yankees despite continually running with one of the lowest payrolls in baseball? After notching 96 wins last year, they are already on the verge, and they boast one of the most talented farm systems in the game. Last season, Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow and Brandon Lowe missed time with injuries, and now top prospect Brendan McKay should spend a full season with the club, as should oft-injured former top prospect Brent Honeywell. The team traded away Tommy Pham but also acquired Hunter Renfroe, Randy Arozarena and Jose Martinez to lighten the blow. Nick Anderson is one of the best relievers in the game, and the Rays should get their first full season of his services as well.

It's not just the 2020 outlook that appears promising for the Rays. They have no key free agents departing after the season, no huge arbitration awards to contend with, and Snell and Lowe are already locked up long term to team-friendly contracts. The team has only around $30 million committed per season over the next few years, which should provide even the budget-conscious Rays some payroll flexibility.

On top of the talent already on the major league roster and their promising financial situation, even more help is on the way. Wander Franco is the best prospect in baseball. He might be ready to contribute at some point in 2020, but he'll be just 20 years old in 2021 and has all the makings of a future star. In addition to Franco and the previously mentioned McKay and Honeywell, the Rays have a number of other prospects among the best in the game who will be ready to contribute over the next few seasons.

Winning 100 games is no easy task for any franchise, but the Rays looked poised to get close in 2020 with a chance at sustained success. From 2008 to 2013, the Rays won an average of 92 games per season, making the playoffs four times and winning one American League pennant behind a core trio of Evan Longoria, David Price and Ben Zobrist. This next stretch of Rays baseball has a chance to be better than that.

Wild cards: The Minnesota Twins -- if their pitching works out -- and Los Angeles Angels if they actually acquire some pitching to go with Mike Trout and potential star Jo Adell.



National League: Atlanta Braves


After a surprising 90-win season in 2018, the Braves defended their division title by winning 97 games before suffering a second straight National League Division Series loss. The Nationals, their main competition for the division, lost their best player, Anthony Rendon, in free agency. The Mets are still trying to move pieces around to make a run, while the Phillies are hoping for another step forward after a .500 season. Meanwhile, the Braves have Freddie Freeman under contract through 2021, with Ronald Acuna Jr. and Ozzie Albies locked up for nearly a decade at embarrassingly low salaries.

The team did lose veterans Josh Donaldson and Dallas Keuchel to free agency, but it signed Marcell Ozuna and Cole Hamels to make up for their departures. Ozuna was only a little above average after his breakout 2017 season with the Marlins, but a change of scenery and a better park for hitting could spark a great season. A full year of Hamels likely will be better for the Braves than the half-season from Keuchel. The bullpen should be better with a full season out of Mark Melancon to go along with the addition of free agent Will Smith. If Austin Riley can make a few adjustments and Mike Foltynewicz can show that the first half of last year was an aberration, the Braves could improve on last year's win totals. Or maybe they will trade for Kris Bryant?

With Melancon, Ozuna and Hamels all free agents after 2020, the club should have a lot of money to play with for the future. Despite a $160 million payroll this season, the team has just $68 million committed to their 2021 budget.

The team's farm system isn't quite as loaded as Tampa Bay's, but it is full of talented players ready to contribute almost immediately. Cristian Pache and Drew Waters are close to coming up and giving Atlanta one of the best young outfields in the game, while Ian Anderson, Kyle Wright and Bryse Wilson give the Braves' rotation some young, cheap options this year to join Mike Soroka, Foltynewicz, Max Fried and Hamels. If the youngsters aren't quite ready, the club should have the prospect depth to trade from to add proven options.

There are going to be questions about whether Liberty Media will allow the Braves to spend at a high level, but the club has a base of young, locked-in talent headed by one of the best players in the game in Acuna. If their next wave of prospects breaks right and ownership continues to supplement the team in free agency, Atlanta could dominate the NL East for the next half-decade.

Wild card: The San Diego Padres, if MacKenzie Gore and Luis Patino turn into aces as Fernando Tatis Jr. blossoms into a star.