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Skooby

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NFL experts predict: NFC West winner, Week 17 upsets and early 2020 picks


What's your top upset pick for Week 17?
Mina Kimes, NFL writer: Falcons (+1) over Buccaneers. It seemed inevitable that Atlanta coach Dan Quinn would be fired this offseason, but I'm no longer certain, because his team seems bent on saving his job. The Falcons' defense has improved by leaps and bounds as of late, so give me Atlanta in a weird one.

Jason Reid, The Undefeated, senior writer: Cardinals (+7) over Rams. Rookie quarterback Kyler Murray is dealing with a minor hamstring injury, but he is expected to play. Murray has validated the Cardinals' decision to select him first overall in the 2019 draft, and his season will end on a high note against the Rams, who failed to reach the postseason for the first time in three seasons under coach Sean McVay.

Aaron Schatz, editor of Football Outsiders: Bengals (+3) over Browns. For a 1-14 team, Cincinnati is less horrible than you might think, especially when you consider only games started by Andy Dalton instead of Ryan Finley. The Bengals are 28th in our weighted DVOA ratings that give less strength to early games. The Browns are down to 23rd in those same ratings.


Kevin Seifert, national NFL writer: Bengals (+3) over Browns. The Bengals have already locked in the No. 1 overall pick of the 2020 draft, so there is nothing holding them back from a Week 17 release of competitiveness. And if there is any team likely to blow off a meaningless Week 17 game on the road, it's the Browns.

Field Yates, NFL analyst: Falcons (+1) over Buccaneers. Atlanta has been far better since its bye week on defense and should end its season on a positive note after a disappointing start.



49ers at Seahawks will decide the NFC West. Who are you taking?
Kimes: 49ers. The return of Marshawn Lynch should give the Seahawks (and fan base) an emotional boost, but the loss of left tackle Duane Brown is brutal. You saw what Arizona's defensive line did to Russell Wilson last week. Now imagine Nick Bosa & Co. bearing down on Seattle's battered unit. The Seahawks should get some core contributors back on defense on Sunday, but the injuries across the board will be difficult to overcome.

Reid: 49ers. Although I totally love what Wilson has done this season -- if not for Baltimore's Lamar Jackson, Wilson would be the league's MVP -- he has only so much magic. Losing top running back Chris Cason for the remainder of the season was a major blow, and Brown is out because of knee surgery. The return of Lynch is cool and all, but Beast Mode is 33 and hasn't played this season. San Francisco coach Kyle Shanahan will win his first division title.


Schatz: 49ers. I think it's actually a good thing for the Seahawks that injuries in the backfield might prompt them to run less and depend on Wilson more. But the offensive line already has been problematic all year, and now it has lost its best player in Brown. There's only so much Wilson can do to will his team to victory, even with the help of the 12s. Poor in-game decision-making by the Seattle coaching staff doesn't make his job any easier.

Seifert: 49ers. I have been primed to pick the Seahawks for weeks, if not months. If the teams that played the first matchup in Week 10 were rematched in Seattle, this would be pretty easy. But the Seahawks have suffered too many injury hits, and the loss of Brown alone -- leaving the Seahawks vulnerable to a highly active 49ers front -- is reason alone to pick against them.

Yates: 49ers. While San Francisco is dealing with its own injuries, two key injuries to Seattle's backfield have them in a pickle for this massive matchup. Even when it's playing at home, I think the lack of a dominant running game -- which has catalyzed the team this season -- will be Seattle's undoing.



The Bengals locked up the No. 1 pick in the 2020 draft. Todd McShay says they should take LSU QB Joe Burrow. What would you do if you were the GM?
Kimes: Pick Burrow. It's impossible to say if he (or any quarterback) is a sure thing, and it's always risky to drop a rookie into a bad team, but his upside is too high to pass on.

Reid: Burrow has a fabulous story, and his Heisman speech was one for the ages. That established, it's not like he'll be evaluated as highly as John Elway once was entering the draft. His success at the next level isn't a sure thing. The Bengals need a whole lot of players. They should trade down and pick up as many picks as possible.

Schatz: The Bengals need a quarterback, but there's certainly no guarantee that Burrow is going to be an NFL star. The best scenario for the Bengals would be a trade down that picks up a significant number of draft-pick assets but also leaves them with a first-round pick high enough to select an alternate quarterback prospect.


Seifert: I can't imagine doing anything other than taking a quarterback. In a 1-13 season, they benched longtime starter Andy Dalton and returned him to the lineup only when they realized that his replacement -- Ryan Finley -- was not the answer. The idea of trading down and accumulating additional assets is tempting, but not when the quarterback cupboard is bare.

Yates: Take a quarterback. The makings of a nice offensive nucleus are actually in place if Cincinnati can find a long-term quarterback answer. I hear Joe Burrow is available.



Let's talk 2020. Give us one prediction for next year that you feel strongly about.
Kimes: The Cowboys win the NFC East next year. This team has been completely befuddling; its underlying statistics tell us it should be much better than it is, but it got unlucky and failed to execute in big moments. Its cap situation isn't as dire as advertised, and after the organization brings in new coaches, I wouldn't be surprised if it bounces back in a big way.

Reid: Lamar Jackson, Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson will wage an epic three-QB battle for the MVP award that won't be decided until Week 17. These guys are the future of the NFL. And the league's future is bright.

Schatz: New England's days of dominating the AFC East are over. Tom Brady's decline will likely continue, assuming he doesn't retire. I don't expect the big moves needed to solve the team's wide receiver/tight end weaknesses. Defense is far less consistent from year to year than offense, and the Patriots will have major defensive regression, compounded by the fact that a number of major players are free agents (Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Danny Shelton) and/or rumored to be considering retirement (twins Devin and Jason McCourty). They still might win the division at 9-7 or something, especially if Buffalo's defense regresses as well, but they won't be competing for a top-two seed and first-round bye again next year.

Seifert: The NFL won't totally give up on its safety net for pass-interference calls and non-calls. I don't know if owners will renew the identical review process, if they'll tweak it or if they'll consider a "sky judge." But there are plenty of people in and around the league who think this year's fiasco has been a failure of execution, not process.

Yates: Kyler Murray will be in the Pro Bowl. There was so much promise during his rookie season. Arizona should benefit from all of the young wideouts who will have a full offseason together to develop, while Murray will be that much further along. He's a prodigious talent.




OK, we've reached the end of 2010s. What was your favorite NFL moment from 2010 to '19?
Kimes: Richard Sherman's tip. Super Bowl XLVIII was a dud, but the NFC Championship between Seattle and San Francisco that year was one of the greatest games I've ever seen -- an epic, angry rivalry that culminated in a single moment on the field, capped with a truly incredible interview.

Reid: Eli Manning to Mario Manningham in Super Bowl XLVI. Trailing the Patriots 17-15 with under four minutes to play in the fourth quarter, the Giants were at their 12-yard line. On first down, Manning dropped back and threw deep along the left sideline to Manningham, perfectly placing the ball between the corner and safety. Manningham did the rest, stretching out and making the catch -- one of the greatest in Super Bowl history -- for a 38-yard gain. The Giants capped the drive with the go-ahead touchdown and held on to win the championship 21-17.

Schatz: The Immaculate Interception. Malcolm Butler's pick to end Super Bowl XLIX. This was my first year covering the Super Bowl, and I managed to see the team I root for win the championship on the most important single play in NFL history for Super Bowl win probability.

Seifert: Butler's interception in Super Bowl XLIX. You could write a book about the backstory, execution and consequence of this one play. Having sat in NFL stadiums for two decades, I can remember only a handful of other plays that so completely reversed the expected tide. And none of them transferred a near-certain championship from one team to the other. The Seahawks were 1 yard away from a title!

Yates: Every #BigGuy touchdown. Those were awesome, and the celebrations were almost always glorious.
 

Skooby

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This is the weirdest NBA draft in years

While the 2019 NBA draft had a clear hierarchy at the top -- with a supernatural force in Zion Williamson as the anchor, followed by an uber-athlete in Ja Morant and a versatile, consistent winner in RJ Barrett -- the 2020 NBA draft is flummoxing franchises projected to end up with high lottery picks.

NBA front-office executives have expressed quite a bit of early consternation because of the major questions surrounding this draft's top candidates.

Normally a team (and its fans) that suffers through the misery of a 20-win season can look forward to the salve of a top draft pick, considered among the most valuable assets in the NBA. With the flattened lottery odds, that's less likely, as we saw last year when the New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies jumped from the seventh- and eighth-worst records to drafting No. 1 and No. 2, respectively.

And even for the teams that do win the 2020 lottery, no prospect has emerged as a clear, reliable No. 1 pick. Plus, the talent in the top three relative to previous drafts is increasingly more difficult to discern.

While teams knew going into this season that the 2020 draft class might be lacking in proven, high-end talent, several circumstances have created even more mystery and anxiety around just how to evaluate this group.




What's going on with the top three prospects?
James Wiseman's departure

Wiseman's surprise decision to abandon his Memphis Tigers team midseason just as his NCAA-mandated suspension was nearing its end brought additional scrutiny about his perceived lack of competitiveness among NBA teams.

This has been a lingering concern for Wiseman, as he had already been prone in the past to pick and choose when to play and whether to operate at maximum intensity. That isn't ideal for a modern NBA big man who doesn't have proven shooting range or a means of creating offense consistently off the dribble.

At the moment, Wiseman's candidacy for the top pick consists of two impressive performances against overmatched opponents in South Carolina State and Illinois-Chicago, an inconsistent, foul-plagued showing against Oregon and a strong month on the high school all-star circuit last spring. That body of work leaves a lot to be desired, especially considering the concerns teams have about the ability of big men in his mold -- lacking elite defensive feel or money 3-point touch -- to affect an NBA game.

LaMelo Ball's unknowns

Ball rocketed to the top of some draft boards in the fall with his special combination of size, ballhandling, creativity and passing instincts. However, many skeptical teams did not make it a priority to scout his early-season National Basketball League games, and now a foot injury from early December could cause him to miss the rest of the season.

Most NBA decision-makers projected to be picking at the top of the 2020 draft never got a chance to evaluate Ball live in Australia, despite the early signs indicating he was more than worth their time, which in hindsight was a crucial mistake.

The fact that Ball has missed most of the NBL season because of injury -- something that has also been an issue for his brother, Lonzo, in the NBA -- won't do anything to quell the myriad concerns teams already had about him at the top of the draft. Along with his durability, the questions primarily stem from his reportedly erratic work ethic, potential distractions generated by his father, LaVar, and his glaring inconsistency with defense, perimeter shooting and general half-court scoring prowess.

Ball has clear No. 1 pick talent, but NBA teams still need a lot of convincing to feel comfortable that he has a good chance to realize his full potential.

Anthony Edwards' inconsistency

Edwards might gradually emerge as the consensus safest pick at the top of the draft, which is odd considering the Georgia guard has yet to put together a full game in which he is locked in from start to finish: operating at maximum intensity, making good decisions with the ball consistently and finding ways to use his tremendous tools to make an impact on both ends of the floor.

The theoretical version of Edwards at his peak -- a long-armed, hyperathletic, multipositional guard who can dribble, pass, shoot and defend -- is far more enticing at the moment than what he has actually shown.

To this point in the season, he has been plagued with inconsistency, passivity and inefficiency, but his extreme youth, less-than-ideal team situation and flashes of brilliance in small doses seemingly give him an edge. Those inconsistencies are not as worrisome to NBA executives as the major red flags his competitors for No. 1 carry.

Edwards still has quite a bit to prove over the next two months, but the door is wide open for him to emerge as the presumptive favorite.


Setbacks caused by a lack of scouting opportunities
Wiseman's abrupt desertion, combined with injuries to Ball and North Carolina guard Cole Anthony, have brought to the forefront a long-bubbling conversation in scouting circles pertaining to the NBA's self-imposed handicaps for evaluating future draft picks.

Outside of a handful of camps and all-star settings -- such as the McDonald's All American Game, the Nike Hoop Summit, the National Basketball Players Association Top 100 camp and the USA Basketball junior national team minicamp -- NBA scouts are restricted in their exposure to top high school talent before those prospects enroll in college. Scouts aren't allowed to watch elite prospects in their most natural settings (high school and AAU games), as the 2005 age limit intentionally restricted NBA scouts' ability to travel to games for youth prospects over a year away from draft eligibility.

More and more, NBA teams are asking why these outdated rules -- which are rife with confusion regarding who can and can't be scouted -- are still in place. Many expect a push to come soon that will allow scouts to return to high school gyms, even without the one-and-done rule going away.

Since the age limit was instituted, there have been numerous examples of players being drafted despite playing only a handful of college games -- or none at all, in the case of Darius Bazley and Mitchell Robinson. Injuries to the likes of Kyrie Irving and Darius Garland showed young prospects that the NBA isn't afraid to pick players in the top five even if they've played only a fraction of a season. The extreme case of Dante Exum, in which the Australian sat out an entire season to protect the draft stock he built up at the FIBA level and was nevertheless picked in the top five, showed the benefits of withholding scouting opportunities.

Now, more prospects feel that there's no need to risk injury or poor play knowing that the NBA has rarely shied away from selecting players due to limited information if there's intriguing upside attached.

From a basketball development standpoint, there's a strong case to be made that top prospects considering this strategy might very well be costing themselves the valuable experience of playing in big games, participating in practices, engaging in film sessions, undergoing skill-development training and handling legitimate feedback through the ups and downs of an actual season. It's one thing to be drafted high in the lottery, but it's another altogether to be ready to compete and excel in the NBA.

There's a real chance that none of the top seven players currently in our top 100 NBA draft rankings ends up playing a single NCAA tournament game. The entire top half of the lottery not playing in the tourney would be unprecedented in draft history, further costing NBA teams opportunities to evaluate prospects in high-stakes situations.

A number of scouts are concerned that the lowering of the age limit back down to 18 could cause elite prospects to take the drastic step of skipping their senior years of high school altogether, which would lead to further confusion in player evaluation. So it's no surprise that the chatter around one-and-done going away has screeched to a halt, as executives have encouraged their owners to tell NBA commissioner Adam Silver how opposed they are to making draft decisions on high schoolers yet again.

How this uncertainty could change the draft
These questions and the general lack of enthusiasm surrounding this group of draft prospects might cause teams to prioritize older, more proven players on draft night -- guys who spent multiple years in college and ultimately emerged as All-Americans.

It's not lost on teams that some of the biggest draft misses of the past few years were upperclassmen who were undervalued due to a perceived lack of upside, which might lead to a market correction. We began to see that last year, when many young players -- such as Bol Bol, Talen Horton-Tucker, Jalen Lecque and Luguentz Dort -- dropped deep into the second round or went undrafted altogether, as older players -- such as Cameron Johnson, Grant Williams and Dylan Windler -- took their spots in the first round.

The lack of hierarchy in the draft also might make for a different type of pre-draft process, where players are forced to conduct more workouts for larger draft ranges, putting themselves in competitive situations to prove they are worthy of selection by the most coveted destinations.

What will this all mean on draft night? With teams likely to have wildly different player rankings, we could be looking at some real chaos as it pertains to projecting how the draft unfolds and how players get real information about their draft stock, as well as potentially a flurry of trades as some teams scramble to get off of picks and others target prospects they value more than others.

Add in the fact that the 2020 NBA free-agent class is shaping up to be fairly underwhelming, and there's a sense among teams right now that there simply aren't as many avenues as usual to improve via trades, the draft or the open market, which could lead to some boom-or-bust moves.
 

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This is the weirdest NBA draft in years

While the 2019 NBA draft had a clear hierarchy at the top -- with a supernatural force in Zion Williamson as the anchor, followed by an uber-athlete in Ja Morant and a versatile, consistent winner in RJ Barrett -- the 2020 NBA draft is flummoxing franchises projected to end up with high lottery picks.

NBA front-office executives have expressed quite a bit of early consternation because of the major questions surrounding this draft's top candidates.

Normally a team (and its fans) that suffers through the misery of a 20-win season can look forward to the salve of a top draft pick, considered among the most valuable assets in the NBA. With the flattened lottery odds, that's less likely, as we saw last year when the New Orleans Pelicans and Memphis Grizzlies jumped from the seventh- and eighth-worst records to drafting No. 1 and No. 2, respectively.

And even for the teams that do win the 2020 lottery, no prospect has emerged as a clear, reliable No. 1 pick. Plus, the talent in the top three relative to previous drafts is increasingly more difficult to discern.

While teams knew going into this season that the 2020 draft class might be lacking in proven, high-end talent, several circumstances have created even more mystery and anxiety around just how to evaluate this group.




What's going on with the top three prospects?
James Wiseman's departure

Wiseman's surprise decision to abandon his Memphis Tigers team midseason just as his NCAA-mandated suspension was nearing its end brought additional scrutiny about his perceived lack of competitiveness among NBA teams.

This has been a lingering concern for Wiseman, as he had already been prone in the past to pick and choose when to play and whether to operate at maximum intensity. That isn't ideal for a modern NBA big man who doesn't have proven shooting range or a means of creating offense consistently off the dribble.

At the moment, Wiseman's candidacy for the top pick consists of two impressive performances against overmatched opponents in South Carolina State and Illinois-Chicago, an inconsistent, foul-plagued showing against Oregon and a strong month on the high school all-star circuit last spring. That body of work leaves a lot to be desired, especially considering the concerns teams have about the ability of big men in his mold -- lacking elite defensive feel or money 3-point touch -- to affect an NBA game.

LaMelo Ball's unknowns

Ball rocketed to the top of some draft boards in the fall with his special combination of size, ballhandling, creativity and passing instincts. However, many skeptical teams did not make it a priority to scout his early-season National Basketball League games, and now a foot injury from early December could cause him to miss the rest of the season.

Most NBA decision-makers projected to be picking at the top of the 2020 draft never got a chance to evaluate Ball live in Australia, despite the early signs indicating he was more than worth their time, which in hindsight was a crucial mistake.

The fact that Ball has missed most of the NBL season because of injury -- something that has also been an issue for his brother, Lonzo, in the NBA -- won't do anything to quell the myriad concerns teams already had about him at the top of the draft. Along with his durability, the questions primarily stem from his reportedly erratic work ethic, potential distractions generated by his father, LaVar, and his glaring inconsistency with defense, perimeter shooting and general half-court scoring prowess.

Ball has clear No. 1 pick talent, but NBA teams still need a lot of convincing to feel comfortable that he has a good chance to realize his full potential.

Anthony Edwards' inconsistency

Edwards might gradually emerge as the consensus safest pick at the top of the draft, which is odd considering the Georgia guard has yet to put together a full game in which he is locked in from start to finish: operating at maximum intensity, making good decisions with the ball consistently and finding ways to use his tremendous tools to make an impact on both ends of the floor.

The theoretical version of Edwards at his peak -- a long-armed, hyperathletic, multipositional guard who can dribble, pass, shoot and defend -- is far more enticing at the moment than what he has actually shown.

To this point in the season, he has been plagued with inconsistency, passivity and inefficiency, but his extreme youth, less-than-ideal team situation and flashes of brilliance in small doses seemingly give him an edge. Those inconsistencies are not as worrisome to NBA executives as the major red flags his competitors for No. 1 carry.

Edwards still has quite a bit to prove over the next two months, but the door is wide open for him to emerge as the presumptive favorite.


Setbacks caused by a lack of scouting opportunities
Wiseman's abrupt desertion, combined with injuries to Ball and North Carolina guard Cole Anthony, have brought to the forefront a long-bubbling conversation in scouting circles pertaining to the NBA's self-imposed handicaps for evaluating future draft picks.

Outside of a handful of camps and all-star settings -- such as the McDonald's All American Game, the Nike Hoop Summit, the National Basketball Players Association Top 100 camp and the USA Basketball junior national team minicamp -- NBA scouts are restricted in their exposure to top high school talent before those prospects enroll in college. Scouts aren't allowed to watch elite prospects in their most natural settings (high school and AAU games), as the 2005 age limit intentionally restricted NBA scouts' ability to travel to games for youth prospects over a year away from draft eligibility.

More and more, NBA teams are asking why these outdated rules -- which are rife with confusion regarding who can and can't be scouted -- are still in place. Many expect a push to come soon that will allow scouts to return to high school gyms, even without the one-and-done rule going away.

Since the age limit was instituted, there have been numerous examples of players being drafted despite playing only a handful of college games -- or none at all, in the case of Darius Bazley and Mitchell Robinson. Injuries to the likes of Kyrie Irving and Darius Garland showed young prospects that the NBA isn't afraid to pick players in the top five even if they've played only a fraction of a season. The extreme case of Dante Exum, in which the Australian sat out an entire season to protect the draft stock he built up at the FIBA level and was nevertheless picked in the top five, showed the benefits of withholding scouting opportunities.

Now, more prospects feel that there's no need to risk injury or poor play knowing that the NBA has rarely shied away from selecting players due to limited information if there's intriguing upside attached.

From a basketball development standpoint, there's a strong case to be made that top prospects considering this strategy might very well be costing themselves the valuable experience of playing in big games, participating in practices, engaging in film sessions, undergoing skill-development training and handling legitimate feedback through the ups and downs of an actual season. It's one thing to be drafted high in the lottery, but it's another altogether to be ready to compete and excel in the NBA.

There's a real chance that none of the top seven players currently in our top 100 NBA draft rankings ends up playing a single NCAA tournament game. The entire top half of the lottery not playing in the tourney would be unprecedented in draft history, further costing NBA teams opportunities to evaluate prospects in high-stakes situations.

A number of scouts are concerned that the lowering of the age limit back down to 18 could cause elite prospects to take the drastic step of skipping their senior years of high school altogether, which would lead to further confusion in player evaluation. So it's no surprise that the chatter around one-and-done going away has screeched to a halt, as executives have encouraged their owners to tell NBA commissioner Adam Silver how opposed they are to making draft decisions on high schoolers yet again.

How this uncertainty could change the draft
These questions and the general lack of enthusiasm surrounding this group of draft prospects might cause teams to prioritize older, more proven players on draft night -- guys who spent multiple years in college and ultimately emerged as All-Americans.

It's not lost on teams that some of the biggest draft misses of the past few years were upperclassmen who were undervalued due to a perceived lack of upside, which might lead to a market correction. We began to see that last year, when many young players -- such as Bol Bol, Talen Horton-Tucker, Jalen Lecque and Luguentz Dort -- dropped deep into the second round or went undrafted altogether, as older players -- such as Cameron Johnson, Grant Williams and Dylan Windler -- took their spots in the first round.

The lack of hierarchy in the draft also might make for a different type of pre-draft process, where players are forced to conduct more workouts for larger draft ranges, putting themselves in competitive situations to prove they are worthy of selection by the most coveted destinations.

What will this all mean on draft night? With teams likely to have wildly different player rankings, we could be looking at some real chaos as it pertains to projecting how the draft unfolds and how players get real information about their draft stock, as well as potentially a flurry of trades as some teams scramble to get off of picks and others target prospects they value more than others.

Add in the fact that the 2020 NBA free-agent class is shaping up to be fairly underwhelming, and there's a sense among teams right now that there simply aren't as many avenues as usual to improve via trades, the draft or the open market, which could lead to some boom-or-bust moves.

I think a lot of teams in this draft are going to take who they think is the best player available rather than drafting for a particular need. There are good, solid players to be had in this draft, but no standout potential superstars.

If we’re being honest, then the top 5-10 players in this draft all have long-term question marks and not just the top 3 that they mentioned.
 
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Can the Clippers trade their way past the Lakers?

Why have the LA Clippers slumped since mid-December, losing ground in the Western Conference standings? Could a trade boost their chances of winning the first championship in franchise history?

On Dec. 13, the Clippers were 20-7 and looking up only at their Staples Center co-tenants, the Los Angeles Lakers, in the West standings. But since then, the Clippers have been barely better than .500 (8-6), sliding into fourth in the West and putting their chances of hosting a playoff series in jeopardy.

Even if this is just a midseason malaise for the Clippers, could they stand to upgrade their core in anticipation of a possible postseason matchup against the Lakers -- one that now looks as if it could come a round earlier than anticipated?






Clippers struggling defensively without Kawhi
Over the course of the season, the Clippers boast top-10 units at both ends of the court, a typical baseline for championship contention. A look at the overall numbers, however, obscures that the Clippers have really had two wildly different defenses: an elite one with former Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard on the court and a mediocre one without him.

When Leonard plays, the Clippers give up 101.4 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA Advanced Stats, a mark that would put them in the NBA's top three. But when Leonard sits -- which he does often because of ongoing management of a patella tendon injury to his left knee -- their defensive rating balloons to 108.0 points per 100 possessions, worse than league average. During the 10 games Leonard has missed entirely, opponents have scored better than their season averages, a key reason the Clippers have gone just 5-5 in those games. (That's already as many as Leonard's Toronto Raptors lost when he sat out last season, as their 17-5 record in those games helped them post the NBA's second-best record en route to the title.)

The Clippers' defensive woes without Leonard make more sense in the context of who has played those minutes. Though the Clippers boast a pair of past All-Defensive first-team picks in guard Patrick Beverley and wing Paul George, those two have played barely more than a third of the minutes Leonard has been sitting because they've teamed with Leonard in the Clippers' starting five (and George has missed more than a third of the team's games himself).

Holdovers Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams are the two Clippers who have played more than half the non-Leonard minutes (around 70% each), and while that duo has helped the team stay afloat offensively, it's little surprise they are less effective at the other end of the court. After all, last season's Clippers team driven by the Harrell-Williams bench combo finished 19th in defensive rating with a net rating (plus-1.0 points per 100 possessions) similar to that of this season's group sans Leonard (plus-0.2).

Defense also looms large in the Clippers' holiday swoon. Over the past month, they boast the league's sixth-best offensive rating -- better than they've managed the full season. But their defensive rating in that span has dropped all the way to 18th despite Leonard playing a relatively higher share of the team's minutes. Consistent energy seems to be a culprit. The Clippers' defense was as good as ever against the Lakers in a Christmas Day victory but disastrously awful in an early-January loss at Memphis and a narrow home win over the lowly Knicks without Leonard.

The good news is the Clippers are still in good shape in terms of seeding. They've played a more difficult schedule so far than the other teams battling for second in the West, and of that group only the Dallas Mavericks (plus-7.4) have a better point differential than the Clippers (plus-6.1). As a result, statistical projections favor the Clippers to claim the second seed and home-court advantage through a possible Western Conference finals matchup with the Lakers. Projections based on ESPN's Basketball Power Index give the Clippers a 39% chance of finishing second and just a 15% chance of ending up outside the top four.

Come playoff time, the Clippers' defensive issues will be aided by simply playing Leonard more minutes. So far, he has spent almost as much time on the bench as playing for the Clippers. By contrast, during last season's championship run, Kawhi played more than 80% of Toronto's playoff run. Still, it's worth pondering whether Williams' defense in particular could be an issue in the playoffs.





Do the Clippers need another closer?
Though the Clippers are notably deep in terms of rotation-caliber players -- nine players have been worth at least 0.7 wins above replacement this season by my metric, tying LA with Milwaukee, Philadelphia and San Antonio for most in the NBA -- they still might be a little short on reliable options at the end of a close playoff game.

At times this season, Doc Rivers has finished games with one of JaMychal Green, Maurice Harkless and Landry Shamet on the court. For the most part, however, his closing five has featured Beverley, George, Harrell, Leonard and Williams.

Despite Williams' history of clutch heroics, he largely has been a third option in those groups. According to Second Spectrum data, he has taken only six shots in what the NBA defines as clutch situations (last five minutes of regulation and any OT, score within five points) with both George (who has taken a team-high 12) and Leonard (9) on the court. Overall, Williams' usage rate drops from 33% of the team's plays when both George and Leonard sit to 21% when he plays with both of them -- without a corresponding bump in his efficiency. (His true shooting percentage actually drops slightly, from .585 to .574.)

The question then becomes whether the more limited value Williams brings on offense as a third option will compensate for opponents targeting him defensively in the playoffs. Late in games, getting Williams switched on a star player is an attractive option for opponents -- although not one the Lakers employed in their two losses to the Clippers, when Williams was allowed to hide on nonthreatening spot-up shooters down the stretch.

With George and Leonard handling the bulk of the shot creation, the Clippers might prefer another 3-and-D option -- one whose game is more complete than Harkless' and Shamet's. Ideally, that player would also supply secondary playmaking, a weakness for the Clippers. (They've assisted on just 56% of their field goals this season, putting them 24th in the NBA.)

That combination sounds a lot like Andre Iguodala, whom the Clippers might be able to acquire by packaging their first-round draft pick, Harkless and another player, most plausibly Jerome Robinson. The Clippers can trade their 2020 first-round pick but after this draft won't be able to trade a first-round pick until the 2021 draft concludes, at which point they'd be able to trade their 2028 first-rounder. So the Clippers would be using some of their precious remaining draft capital on a likely rental.

As strictly a rental, Iguodala probably isn't worth the cost to the Clippers, even with the side benefit of keeping him away from the Lakers.

Instead, Marcus Morris Sr. seems to be a more likely Clippers target after they pursued him in free agency last summer. At $15 million, he could be swapped for Harkless and a player making the minimum (either Patrick Patterson or Derrick Walton Jr.). Though Morris doesn't provide the playmaking of Iguodala, he'd offer the Clippers defensive versatility and floor spacing, having hit 47% of his 3s so far this season and 37% for his career. Using non-Bird rights, the Clippers could pay Morris a starting salary up to $18 million to return in free agency.

Other interesting possibilities open up if the Clippers decide Williams' defensive limitations make him more valuable to another team. Given his reasonable contract ($8 million this season and next), Williams probably has more trade value than the first-round pick the Clippers have to offer. But finding a workable trade probably requires involving a third team since those who need Williams' skills probably don't have the kind of quality two-way contributors the Clippers would want in return.

If the Clippers could get a better first-round pick and another expiring contract for Williams, perhaps then they could make a run at Toronto's Kyle Lowry with an eye toward reuniting him with his former teammate Leonard in pursuit of another title.

The heaviest lifting for the Clippers' front office came last summer, when a series of deals culminating with their trade for George put them in position to sign Leonard as a free agent. Still, with the Lakers looming as a formidable West foe, the Clippers might have some work left to do before the deadline to complete their finishing lineups.
 

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Can the Clippers trade their way past the Lakers?

Why have the LA Clippers slumped since mid-December, losing ground in the Western Conference standings? Could a trade boost their chances of winning the first championship in franchise history?

On Dec. 13, the Clippers were 20-7 and looking up only at their Staples Center co-tenants, the Los Angeles Lakers, in the West standings. But since then, the Clippers have been barely better than .500 (8-6), sliding into fourth in the West and putting their chances of hosting a playoff series in jeopardy.

Even if this is just a midseason malaise for the Clippers, could they stand to upgrade their core in anticipation of a possible postseason matchup against the Lakers -- one that now looks as if it could come a round earlier than anticipated?






Clippers struggling defensively without Kawhi
Over the course of the season, the Clippers boast top-10 units at both ends of the court, a typical baseline for championship contention. A look at the overall numbers, however, obscures that the Clippers have really had two wildly different defenses: an elite one with former Defensive Player of the Year Kawhi Leonard on the court and a mediocre one without him.

When Leonard plays, the Clippers give up 101.4 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA Advanced Stats, a mark that would put them in the NBA's top three. But when Leonard sits -- which he does often because of ongoing management of a patella tendon injury to his left knee -- their defensive rating balloons to 108.0 points per 100 possessions, worse than league average. During the 10 games Leonard has missed entirely, opponents have scored better than their season averages, a key reason the Clippers have gone just 5-5 in those games. (That's already as many as Leonard's Toronto Raptors lost when he sat out last season, as their 17-5 record in those games helped them post the NBA's second-best record en route to the title.)

The Clippers' defensive woes without Leonard make more sense in the context of who has played those minutes. Though the Clippers boast a pair of past All-Defensive first-team picks in guard Patrick Beverley and wing Paul George, those two have played barely more than a third of the minutes Leonard has been sitting because they've teamed with Leonard in the Clippers' starting five (and George has missed more than a third of the team's games himself).

Holdovers Montrezl Harrell and Lou Williams are the two Clippers who have played more than half the non-Leonard minutes (around 70% each), and while that duo has helped the team stay afloat offensively, it's little surprise they are less effective at the other end of the court. After all, last season's Clippers team driven by the Harrell-Williams bench combo finished 19th in defensive rating with a net rating (plus-1.0 points per 100 possessions) similar to that of this season's group sans Leonard (plus-0.2).

Defense also looms large in the Clippers' holiday swoon. Over the past month, they boast the league's sixth-best offensive rating -- better than they've managed the full season. But their defensive rating in that span has dropped all the way to 18th despite Leonard playing a relatively higher share of the team's minutes. Consistent energy seems to be a culprit. The Clippers' defense was as good as ever against the Lakers in a Christmas Day victory but disastrously awful in an early-January loss at Memphis and a narrow home win over the lowly Knicks without Leonard.

The good news is the Clippers are still in good shape in terms of seeding. They've played a more difficult schedule so far than the other teams battling for second in the West, and of that group only the Dallas Mavericks (plus-7.4) have a better point differential than the Clippers (plus-6.1). As a result, statistical projections favor the Clippers to claim the second seed and home-court advantage through a possible Western Conference finals matchup with the Lakers. Projections based on ESPN's Basketball Power Index give the Clippers a 39% chance of finishing second and just a 15% chance of ending up outside the top four.

Come playoff time, the Clippers' defensive issues will be aided by simply playing Leonard more minutes. So far, he has spent almost as much time on the bench as playing for the Clippers. By contrast, during last season's championship run, Kawhi played more than 80% of Toronto's playoff run. Still, it's worth pondering whether Williams' defense in particular could be an issue in the playoffs.





Do the Clippers need another closer?
Though the Clippers are notably deep in terms of rotation-caliber players -- nine players have been worth at least 0.7 wins above replacement this season by my metric, tying LA with Milwaukee, Philadelphia and San Antonio for most in the NBA -- they still might be a little short on reliable options at the end of a close playoff game.

At times this season, Doc Rivers has finished games with one of JaMychal Green, Maurice Harkless and Landry Shamet on the court. For the most part, however, his closing five has featured Beverley, George, Harrell, Leonard and Williams.

Despite Williams' history of clutch heroics, he largely has been a third option in those groups. According to Second Spectrum data, he has taken only six shots in what the NBA defines as clutch situations (last five minutes of regulation and any OT, score within five points) with both George (who has taken a team-high 12) and Leonard (9) on the court. Overall, Williams' usage rate drops from 33% of the team's plays when both George and Leonard sit to 21% when he plays with both of them -- without a corresponding bump in his efficiency. (His true shooting percentage actually drops slightly, from .585 to .574.)

The question then becomes whether the more limited value Williams brings on offense as a third option will compensate for opponents targeting him defensively in the playoffs. Late in games, getting Williams switched on a star player is an attractive option for opponents -- although not one the Lakers employed in their two losses to the Clippers, when Williams was allowed to hide on nonthreatening spot-up shooters down the stretch.

With George and Leonard handling the bulk of the shot creation, the Clippers might prefer another 3-and-D option -- one whose game is more complete than Harkless' and Shamet's. Ideally, that player would also supply secondary playmaking, a weakness for the Clippers. (They've assisted on just 56% of their field goals this season, putting them 24th in the NBA.)

That combination sounds a lot like Andre Iguodala, whom the Clippers might be able to acquire by packaging their first-round draft pick, Harkless and another player, most plausibly Jerome Robinson. The Clippers can trade their 2020 first-round pick but after this draft won't be able to trade a first-round pick until the 2021 draft concludes, at which point they'd be able to trade their 2028 first-rounder. So the Clippers would be using some of their precious remaining draft capital on a likely rental.

As strictly a rental, Iguodala probably isn't worth the cost to the Clippers, even with the side benefit of keeping him away from the Lakers.

Instead, Marcus Morris Sr. seems to be a more likely Clippers target after they pursued him in free agency last summer. At $15 million, he could be swapped for Harkless and a player making the minimum (either Patrick Patterson or Derrick Walton Jr.). Though Morris doesn't provide the playmaking of Iguodala, he'd offer the Clippers defensive versatility and floor spacing, having hit 47% of his 3s so far this season and 37% for his career. Using non-Bird rights, the Clippers could pay Morris a starting salary up to $18 million to return in free agency.

Other interesting possibilities open up if the Clippers decide Williams' defensive limitations make him more valuable to another team. Given his reasonable contract ($8 million this season and next), Williams probably has more trade value than the first-round pick the Clippers have to offer. But finding a workable trade probably requires involving a third team since those who need Williams' skills probably don't have the kind of quality two-way contributors the Clippers would want in return.

If the Clippers could get a better first-round pick and another expiring contract for Williams, perhaps then they could make a run at Toronto's Kyle Lowry with an eye toward reuniting him with his former teammate Leonard in pursuit of another title.

The heaviest lifting for the Clippers' front office came last summer, when a series of deals culminating with their trade for George put them in position to sign Leonard as a free agent. Still, with the Lakers looming as a formidable West foe, the Clippers might have some work left to do before the deadline to complete their finishing lineups.

So instead of getting something good for Morris he got the Knicks trading him to the Clippers fit their trash?
 

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So if you have a ESPN+ sub you still had to pay to watch the fight last night?
The main card was PPV, so yes.

Sometimes they'll break up what is on ESPN, ESPN+ or PPV depending on the card.

But there are UFC Fight Nights that are free on ESPN+. Here's the schedule...plenty of fight nights free:

UFC Schedule 2020 | ESPN
 

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NBA mock draft: New top five for 2021 and scouting reports

Although the 2021 NBA draft is still 17 months away, teams are closely monitoring the evolution of next year's class to see how future first-rounders are progressing. It's also worthwhile to get a baseline for how valuable draft picks might be moving forward, particularly with the 2020 NBA trade deadline coming up Feb. 6.

Some scouts are calling 2020 the weirdest draft in years, so it's encouraging to see 2021 already featuring several high-end prospects who likely would garner serious consideration for the No. 1 overall pick this June if the age limit were not in place.

There is no consensus about the No. 1 prospect in 2021 yet, with a two-player race shaping up between Cade Cunningham and Jalen Green. Cunningham continues to hold the top spot on our board as the leader of a Montverde Academy team that has been wrecking everything in sight this season.

This weekend, we checked in with many of the top prospects in the 2020 high school class -- the backbone of the 2021 lottery, if history is any indication -- at the Hoophall Classic in Springfield, Massachusetts. Here are our insights and new projections for 2021.

Note: We used the same projected standing from our latest 2020 mock draft in this 2021 edition. Although the 2021 draft is too far away to reasonably predict the team order, this gives a sense of picks owed and owned.




2021 NBA mock draft
Pick Player Team HT POS Age
1. CLE
Cade Cunningham Oklahoma State* 6-7 PG 18.3
2. ATL Jalen Green Uncommitted 6-5 SG 17.9
3. GSW Evan Mobley USC* 7-0 PF/C 18.5
4. NYK Jonathan Kuminga Uncommitted 6-8 SF/PF 17.2
5. CHA Ziaire Williams Uncommitted 6-8 SG/SF 18.3
6. WAS Jalen Johnson Duke* 6-8 PF 18.0
7. CHI Usman Garuba Real Madrid 6-8 PF 17.8
8. PHX B.J. Boston Kentucky* 6-7 SG/SF 18.1
9. MEM Terrence Clarke Kentucky* 6-6 SG/SF 18.3
10. MIN Caleb Love North Carolina* 6-3 PG 18.3
11. NOP Daishen Nix UCLA* 6-4 PG 17.9
12. SAC Greg Brown Uncommitted 6-8 PF 18.3
13. DET Saddiq Bey Villanova 6-8 SF 20.7
14. POR Keon Johnson Tennessee* 6-5 SG 17.8
15. BKN Juhann Begarin Paris 6-4 SG 17.4
16. SAS Earl Timberlake Miami* 6-6 SF 18.2
17. ORL Scottie Barnes Florida State* 6-8 PF 18.3
18. OKC Jalen Suggs Gonzaga* 6-4 SG 18.6
19. IND Daniel Oturu Minnesota 6-9 C 20.3
20. PHI DJ Carton Ohio State 6-0 PG 19.4
21. NYK (via DAL) DJ Steward Duke* 6-3 PG 18.3
22. DEN Ibou Dianko Badji Barcelona 2 7-1 C 17.2
23. UTA Roko Prkacin Cibona Zagreb 6-9 PF 17.1
24. TOR Tyrell Terry Stanford 6-2 PG 19.3
25. OKC (via HOU) Jared Butler Baylor 6-3 PG/SG 19.4
26. BOS Cam Thomas LSU* 6-4 SG 18.2
27. HOU (via MIA) Josh Christopher Uncommitted 6-5 SG/SF 18.1
28. LAC Jaden Springer Tennessee* 6-4 PG/SG 17.3
29. LAL Moses Moody Arkansas* 6-6 SG 17.6
30. MIL Matthew Hurt Duke 6-9 PF 19.7
31. NOP (via CLE) Wendell Moore Duke 6-6 SF 18.3
32. BKN (via ATL) Adam Miller Illinois* 6-3 SG 17.9
33. UTA (via GSW) Jeremiah Robinson-Earl Villanova 6-9 PF 19.2
34. PHI (via NYK) Terrence Shannon Texas Tech 6-6 SF 19.4
35. NYK (via CHA) Keyontae Johnson Florida 6-5 SF 20.6
36. NOP (via WAS) Romeo Weems DePaul 6-6 SF 18.6
37. CHI Khalifa Diop Gran Canaria 6-11 C 18.0
38. BKN (via PHX) Landers Nolley Virginia Tech 6-7 SF 19.8
39. SAC (via MEM) Oscar Tshiebwe West Virginia 6-9 C 20.1
40. MIN Karim Mane Uncommitted 6-6 SG 19.6
41. NOP Yam Madar Hapoel Tel Aviv 6-2 PG 19.0
42. SAC Elijah Hughes Syracuse 6-6 SG/SF 21.8
43. LAC (via DET) George Conditt Iowa State 6-10 C 19.4
44. MEM (via POR) Xavier Tillman Michigan State 6-8 C 21.0
45. CHA (via BKN) Carlos Alocen Zaragoza 6-5 PG 19.0
46. SAS Joel Ayayi Gonzaga 6-4 PG/SG 19.8
47. ORL Aaron Wiggins Maryland 6-6 SG/SF 21.0
48. OKC Ismael Kamagate Paris 6-11 C 19.0
49. IND Makur Maker Uncommitted 6-11 PF/C 19.1
50. HOU (via PHI) Isaac Likekele Oklahoma St. 6-4 PG/SG 19.9
51. DAL Herb Jones Alabama 6-8 SF 21.2
52. PHI (via DEN) Yves Pons Tennessee 6-6 SF/PF 20.7
53. IND (via UTA) Isaiah Livers Michigan 6-7 SF/PF 21.4
54. BKN (via TOR) Paul Scruggs Xavier 6-3 PG/SG 21.8
55. PHI (via HOU) John Petty Alabama 6-6 SG/SF 21.1
56. BOS Colbey Ross Pepperdine 6-1 PG 21.2
57. SAC (via MIA) Arturs Kurucs VEF Riga 6-5 SG 20.0
58. CHA (via LAC) Olle Lundqvist Real Canoe 6-7 SG/SF 20.1
59. DET (via LAL) Dalibor Ilic Igokea 6-9 SF/PF 19.8
60. IND (via MIL) Marko Simonovic Mega Bemax 6-11 PF/C 20.2
*Committed
 

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Biggest NBA draft takeaways
Cunningham continues to make major strides with his perimeter shooting, knocking down several 3-pointers this weekend. His ability to hit pull-up jumpers when defenses go under ball screens has also improved. This is an important skill for him considering he's not blessed with the quickest first step and hasn't yet developed the ability to decelerate and explode past defenders like his most frequently mentioned comparison -- Luka Doncic -- possessed at the same stage.

What Cunningham does have is tremendous size, strength and length, with a wingspan measuring over 7 feet. He's doing a much better job of utilizing those gifts on the defensive end. Cunningham completely locked up two of the quickest guards in the 2020 high school class in Jaden Springer and Sharife Cooper, getting over screens forcefully and using his terrific instincts to make plays. He also showed his versatility by switching seamlessly onto bigger players in the post. Cunningham's best asset -- his extraordinarily high basketball IQ -- was evident with the way he ran Montverde's half-court offense smoothly. He can make every pass in the book out of pick-and-roll, while using his size to see over the top of traffic in the open court and deliver highlight feeds. He makes the game easy for teammates and also shows terrific touch on floaters and free throws, leading you to believe he'll continue to progress with his shooting.

Cunningham's impact on winning is unmatched in this class, which gives him the edge at the moment for the No. 1 slot, even if some scouts believe it's Green who possesses the higher ceiling of the two long term.

Green's Prolific Prep (California) team also competed here, and the potential No. 1 pick did not disappoint, delivering 26 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists and 5 turnovers in a narrow win over La Lumiere. He knocked down four 3-pointers in this contest, an area in which he's improved significantly over the past year.

Green is considered the most athletic guard in the class and he was too quick for La Lumiere's defenders, fouling out the opposing team's backcourt while drawing 10 free throws (and making all of those attempts). While he showed some ability to split a ball screen, change speeds in the open court and pass out of pick-and-rolls, his ballhandling ability and overall decision-making are still catching up with his physical gifts. He struggles at times to create high-percentage shots for himself and others, and he can be a little turnover-prone. But his explosiveness, scoring instincts and overall aggressiveness give him arguably the highest upside of any player in this class, especially as his body and perimeter shooting continue to progress.

Evan Mobley, the No. 3 player in our mock, played two games, turning in inconsistent performances in a pair of losses.

On the positive side, Mobley is one of the most fluid big men you'll find. He protects the rim at a high level with his long wingspan and ability to get off the floor, and he can step outside and switch onto smaller players on the perimeter with impressive agility. His skill level is exceptionally high offensively, as he can bust out off a defensive rebound to ignite the break, create his own shot in the half court, find the open man out of short-roll situations and be a tremendous lob target. He also has extremely soft touch finishing around the basket and even knocking down 3s at times. Theoretically, he is exactly what every NBA team is looking for in a modern big man.

Unfortunately, Mobley doesn't always produce up to his talent level. He frequently elects not to insert himself into plays defensively, he isn't a great rebounder and he gets buried in the post by stronger players, showing a concerning lack of toughness. He goes through the motions offensively as well, deferring to lesser teammates, passing up open shots and avoiding contact around the basket. Some of these issues could be solved with added strength, experience, more talented teammates and better coaching. But this has been the scouting report on Mobley for several years now, and some scouts are beginning to wonder if he simply lacks the aggressive approach for a top pick.

It's important to remember that big men in his mold often take longer to develop, and even with his shortcomings, he'll do several things every game that only a handful of players his size can execute. Whichever team eventually drafts Mobley will know it is playing the long game, but with the way the NBA is trending with bigs, it wouldn't be surprising to see executives prioritize guards, wings and forwards who are better equipped to affect the game on a possession-by-possession basis.

Jonathan Kuminga (No. 4) was in attendance in Springfield but was unable to participate due to an ankle injury. Regardless, we've had several opportunities to evaluate him in different settings, including at the Kyrie Invitational in late December. Kuminga is slated as a high school junior at the moment, which would not make him eligible until the 2022 NBA draft. But he is widely expected to reclassify after the Nike EYBL circuit concludes in July and enroll in college over the summer, similar to Marvin Bagley in 2017.

Standing around 6-foot-8 with a near 7-foot wingspan, the Democratic Republic of the Congo native is a prototype for what NBA teams are looking for at the combo forward position, with a tremendous frame, impressive quickness and highlight-reel explosiveness on both ends of the floor. He is at his best using his physical tools and strength in the open floor, showing impressive fluidity, body control and the ability to finish with either hand. He is capable of creating offense for himself and others in the half court as well, though his feel for the game is still a work in progress. While streaky from the perimeter, Kuminga is a decent shooter both with his feet set and off the dribble, making 42 3s in 19 EYBL games this past spring and summer -- even if his shot selection wavers and he doesn't shoot the ball the same way every time.

Defensively is where he really has a chance to be special. While he plays quite a bit of power forward, you'll often see him matched up with point guards, and he's extremely difficult to score on due to his combination of length, strength and lateral quickness. His effort level here is inconsistent, though, and he tends to gamble for turnovers. Kuminga is a raw player in several aspects, but the hope is that with better coaching and added maturity he can iron out the wrinkles in his game and find a way to be more consistent.

• Rounding out our top five is Ziaire Williams, who played his first two games of the season in Springfield after sitting out the past few months due to California transfer rules. Williams showed off his versatility by posting 29 points, 13 rebounds, 6 assists, 4 turnovers, 4 blocks and 8 steals in 50 minutes for Sierra Canyon over the two contests. Williams' athleticism and scoring instincts were on full display, as he's one of the most dynamic shooters in the class. He can make pull-up jumpers out of pick-and-roll or isolation situations, while also possessing deep range as a spot-up threat. Williams is more than just a tall, explosive shooter, though, as he's also capable of contributing as a rebounder, passer and defender. He is quick to protect the rim, crash the offensive glass or get into the passing lanes, also demonstrating unselfishness moving the ball and making teammates better.

Still thin and narrow in the hips and lower body, Williams is going to need time to fill out his frame. He's not the most efficient player at the moment, as he plays an iso-heavy style that involves quite a few low-percentage attempts, and he doesn't always have the strength to finish inside. Finding a position to defend early on in the NBA might be tough as he's easy to push around, but the fact that he's both smart and competitive will help.

More scouting notes from Springfield
• After seemingly hitting a snag offensively this past summer, Scottie Barnes seems to be reinvigorated by his transfer to Montverde Academy. Barnes was outstanding in a double-digit victory over IMG Academy -- considered the second-best team in the country entering the season -- throwing up a versatile stat line of 16 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals and 1 block in 31 minutes of action. He set the tone for the team on the defensive end, getting in passing lanes, showing great timing rotating for blocks, igniting fast breaks and making the extra pass to create easy looks.

Barnes' fit in the modern game isn't seamless, as he's just an average athlete and his limitations offensively make him somewhat of a situational player who needs to find the right fit. Still, his impact on winning is unmatched and he's young enough that there might be some hope of him developing a jumper like Draymond Green did later in his career, though the fact that he hasn't made any progress in that area since he came onto the radar years ago is somewhat discouraging.

Earl Timberlake continues to look like one of the more promising long-term prospects among the non-consensus five-star recruits. He has prototypical physical tools for a wing at 6-foot-6 with a shredded frame, long arms and explosive athleticism, and he showed versatility as a passer, shooter, defender and rebounder. Timberlake looked every bit the part of a McDonald's All American in his two games at the Hoophall and he is certainly someone NBA scouts will want to learn more about when he arrives at the University of Miami this summer.

• Oak Hill's Cam Thomas led the Nike EYBL in scoring this season, so it shouldn't come as a surprise that he dropped an efficient 29 points in a blowout win over Bishop Gorman. Thomas' style of play isn't for everyone, as he's an indifferent defender who can be a ball-stopper with bad body language when things don't go his way, but you can't argue with his scoring instincts and talent. His one-on-one scoring prowess is elite, as his ability to create offense with change of speeds, polished footwork, smooth body control and tight ballhandling skills is going to allow him to put points on the board from the moment he arrives on campus at LSU. He is a natural shot-maker, using step-backs, floaters and wrong-foot finishes to wreak havoc on defenses, while also embracing contact in the lane and getting to the free throw line at a prolific rate.

While he's not considered a consensus five-star prospect and he's on the borderline to make this year's McDonald's All American game, he's a safe bet to draw considerable interest from pro scouts early in his college career thanks to his offense. Although he shows flashes of court vision and playmaking, he makes questionable decisions at times, something he'll have to improve. His strength, length and instincts give him some potential on the defensive, but that's mostly unrealized at the moment.

• Oak Hill teammate K.K. Robinson was equally impressive, scoring 24 points in 27 minutes on just 10 field goal attempts, doing an excellent job of running the team and getting others involved. A lefty with below-average size and an underdeveloped frame (but long wingspan), Robinson has great burst in the open court, a natural shooting stroke and real craft finishing around the basket. He passes and finishes with both hands, plays under control and puts solid effort in defensively, looking the part of a modern lead guard despite lacking a degree of size and strength. Entering the Nike EYBL circuit last spring with strictly mid-major offers, Robinson parlayed a huge showing into offers from a big chunk of SEC and ACC schools, eventually choosing hometown Arkansas.

• The 14-year-old Dajuan Wagner Jr. doesn't get the same amount of attention as some of his brethren in the freshman class, but he looked like a clear candidate to emerge as one of its best long-term prospects. His scoring instincts, ability to change speeds gracefully, body control as a shot-creator and the touch on floaters/jumpers were extremely impressive. If he continues to improve his playmaking ability and grow, he'll become a very impressive prospect.
 

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Jaden Springer's transition to playing point guard full time is a work in progress, as evidenced by the 11 turnovers and 6 assists he posted in two games for IMG. But he's one of the best slashers in the class and has impressive body control, power and explosiveness finishing around the rim. The fact that he is a tough and competitive defender as well gives him a great framework as his perimeter shooting and decision-making continue to evolve. He's been hobbled by leg and foot problems this season, but he is a prospect to monitor regardless, as he's the youngest American player in this mock. He's committed to Tennessee, which might have one of the most interesting backcourts in the country next season, including projected lottery pick Keon Johnson and 2019 McDonald's All American Josiah James.

• Springer's teammate Matthew Murrell is far from the most highly touted prospect on a loaded IMG squad, but he had the best weekend of anyone on his team, dropping 27 points with 7 assists and 5 steals while making 7 of his 11 3-point attempts in a pair of games. Murrell isn't blessed with great size for an off-guard at 6-foot-3, but he has long arms, a nice frame and impressive shooting mechanics all over the floor. He is a willing ball-mover in half-court sets, covers ground defensively, attacks closeouts and even shows some ability to pass out of pick-and-roll. Headed to Ole Miss, Murrell will have plenty of chances to continue to build his candidacy as an NBA prospect in the loaded SEC.

• Georgia-bound K.D. Johnson had arguably the most impressive performance in Springfield, scoring 35 points on 23 shots with 9 rebounds, 7 assists and no turnovers in Hargrave Military Academy's win over Orangeville Prep. Powerfully built with impressive athleticism, Johnson is a relentless slasher who changes speeds effortlessly and plays with frenetic energy on both ends. Sporting compact mechanics, Johnson knocked down five 3-pointers while throwing some very impressive passes off a live dribble, but he kept mistakes to a minimum (not turning the ball over once). In the crosstown Hoophall Prep Showcase this same weekend, Johnson showed his credentials as a scorer by dropping another 60 points in two games on just 34 shots, though his playmaking wasn't quite as impressive.

After an underwhelming showing in Las Vegas, as we documented last month, Makur Maker again had a difficult time getting things going under the watchful eyes of NBA scouts, scoring 8 points on 10 attempts with 9 rebounds, 3 blocks, 1 assist and 3 turnovers. Battling an illness, Maker looked a step slow with his decision-making on both ends, turning the ball over on simple passes and forcing the issue from the perimeter with his jumper. Maker's upright handle, lack of passing ability and struggles defensively were discouraging considering he was matching up with younger players. With Maker still yet to receive confirmation from the NBA league office that he will be considered eligible for the 2020 draft, it's looking more and more likely that he will be in college next season and possibly beyond.
 
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