@Skooby see if you can get this one for me breh, thanks.
Fantasy football 'Do Not Draft' list: Why Patrick Mahomes is on it
Fantasy football 'Do Not Draft' list: Why Patrick Mahomes is on it
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Bigblackted4
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Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes comes off a magnificent MVP season in which he threw 50 touchdown passes and surpassed 5,000 passing yards and still -- yes, still -- I will not be selecting him in 2019 fantasy drafts, unless he slips several rounds, which he most certainly will not. I bet he ends up in the first round of myriad drafts by the time September hits and as usual, I will smile.
Call me stubborn or considerably meaner words, but it does not matter: Quarterback is always a deep position, so investing early in a draft is not really a bad strategy because of the quarterback, but because of the missed opportunity. Sure, perhaps one cannot technically do better in an overall scoring sense in the first few rounds, because QBs score so many points, but it is so much smarter to invest early in flex-eligible players, such as running backs and wide receivers, for there is little value -- or guarantees -- later on.
For example, Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers is great, right? We all love him, all wish we could throw like him and have as much fun as he appears to have in commercials. It is a given. Well, Rodgers, awesome as he clearly is, has finished as fantasy's No. 1 quarterback four times in 11 seasons, but never consecutively. In fact, the last quarterback to finish as the top fantasy scorer in consecutive seasons was ... drumroll, please ... Daunte Culpepper back in his Minnesota Vikings days 15 years ago. It has been a while. That does not mean Mahomes is incapable of the achievement, but it is tough to do and few think about this in August, then they whine about it in October.
Perhaps Mahomes goes nuts again and breaks more records, but only six passers have ever thrown for as many as 42 touchdowns in a season, with Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Dan Marino getting there twice. Perhaps Mahomes really is this great, but more often than not -- a lot more often -- a monster statistical season gets followed by merely great numbers, because defenses adjust and luck alters. ESPN Fantasy projects Mahomes to throw for 4,716 yards and 34 touchdowns and still end up as the No. 1 option. I buy that! Several ESPN Fantasy analysts project another QB to top the list come January, like Deshaun Watson, Matt Ryan or even Rodgers. I buy that, too!
I think Mahomes is great and would love to draft him, but not at the expense of Antonio Brown, Joe Mixon or many others being chosen after him. How can you pass up a top-10 running back for a quarterback? That opportunity cost of players one does not draft is not even close to worth it. Quality fantasy quarterbacks are available 10 rounds after Mahomes, using ESPN Fantasy average draft position (Ben Roethlisberger and Dak Prescott, to name just two), but good luck finding a running back or wide receiver to rely on that late. Value-based drafting is a big deal, and Mahomes -- a borderline top-10 quarterback on draft day last season -- was the top QB, but he is only worth such an early pick if he scores a zillion points again. He likely will not.
I write this blog entry every season and it is nice to say that Aaron Rodgers is not the token quarterback leading the Do Not Draft list. I will not draft him or someone else at that position in the first five or so rounds, either, but please realize the reason. I am waiting a long time for my quarterback(s), but that seems best explained in another blog entry!
Without further ado, here is my latest Do Not Draft list, and remember, it is all about value, so we do not hate the players -- love/hate is for, um, someone else's work -- but rather the cost to invest in a PPR draft versus how else to invest.
Players to avoid at their current ADP
Todd Gurley II, RB, Los Angeles Rams: I delved deeper into this in a recent blog entry, so why waste more time and space when we could rip on so many others? Suffice to say, the risk is not even close to the first-round reward. Even the Rams would not draft him in Round 1 anymore. Somewhere in Round 3, sure, I would start to consider it, but I am glad I will not get that chance to think much about it.
Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles: Retired New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski deserves mention in this blog entry, because he was the first fellow I thought about "not drafting" every season. Well, that is, after the top quarterback. Gronk had injury issues the past several years and, from a value perspective, had not been worth a top-20 overall pick in several seasons. Tight ends rarely are, though I do think Chiefs star Travis Kelce is worth his second-round slot and the 49ers' George Kittle in Round 3 makes some sense, I suppose, though it remains a bit early for me.
Ertz is healthy and productive but here is a reminder: You are not drafting last season's numbers. Ertz averaged 75 catches for 831 yards and 4.7 touchdowns the prior three seasons. He was terrific, and a borderline top-five tight end, and fun to invest in, but not a third-round pick. He is currently going 25th overall. Nope. The Eagles have myriad weapons, more than last season. DeSean Jacksonis back to stretch the field. A hotshot rookie running back arrived and he will catch passes. Tight end Dallas Goedert is back for Year 2 with a similar skill set to Ertz's, but more blocking ability. More than 100 catches for Ertz is simply not happening again.
Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans: C'mon, most of you hated this fellow -- figuratively, we presume -- for three months and then he turns it on in December and you make him a fourth-round selection? I admit Henry should be great and can be, assuming he finds consistency beyond a month when his future became in doubt, but I see a major issue to him returning top-15 running back value: He does not catch enough passes, and thus he becomes too touchdown-dependent in our world. This is PPR, and Henry would have to, I believe, surpass our current and aggressive projections (1,400 total yards, 13 touchdowns) to earn the No. 33 overall slot. Yes, you see how weak running back is later on, but do not reach on unreliable players early because of it.
A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals: Two of the past three Green seasons have been curtailed early because of injuries and guess what, he is hurt again! Green, 31, has had a great run for the Bengals and fantasy managers despite his quarterback's average play, but players do not get healthier at this age. Green hurt his ankle in July and the team confidently, but foolishly, announced he would miss Week 1. Seems way too precise, no? And wrong, it turned out. The story has changed. Watch Green miss September, if not more games, and he is far from guaranteed for December, too. Again, this is nothing personal and if Green slips to Round 8 or so, once I have a reasonable set of starting runners and receivers and flex choices, that is different, but he is going early in Round 5. No way.
Sony Michel, RB, New England Patriots: Much like Gurley, we know Michel has knee problems and nobody -- repeat, nobody -- expects them to go away. The Patriots drafted Michel's potential replacement in Damien Harrisand, you might have heard, they have a tendency for switching up their running back touches from week to week, sans warning. In addition, Michel caught seven passes last season. Seven. This is PPR. James White, who ended up a top-10 PPR running back last season, is a considerably better pick, but foolishly going later in drafts. Know your rules!
Chicago Bears D/ST: No need to delve deep into this, but choosing any defense -- any defense -- in the first 10 rounds is unwise. I like the Bears, Rams and a few other defenses enough to choose them in Round 12 or so, which is a change from me waiting until the penultimate round, but the Bears' unit is currently a sixth-round selection, ahead of legit starters at running back and receiver. You should know better!
Sammy Watkins, WR, Kansas City Chiefs: As you might have guessed, I am not too keen on investing in brittle players, and Watkins, with three teams the past three seasons, missed an average of five games a year in that span. He also was not exactly Jerry Rice when he did play. Watkins is talented and his QB -- despite how some will misinterpret the lead of this entry -- is awesome, but people have to stop waiting for a monster statistical season. The fact that teammate Tyreek Hill avoided suspension really reduced the Watkins ADP, but not enough. I will take rookie Mecole Hardman five rounds after Watkins and enjoy it.
Greg Zuerlein, K, Los Angeles Rams: I choose my kicker in the final round, and only because most league rules mandate I draft a kicker. For Zuerlein and Baltimore's Justin Tucker to be top-100 ADP picks is simply ridiculous, to be kind.
Bigblackted4
Superstar
Players to avoid, even in the latter rounds
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots: In real life, there is little doubt. This fellow wins championships and earns all the respect. In fantasy, however, he no longer does this. Brady's 2018 statistical regular season was similar to his 2017 campaign, but it was not close to being top 10 at the position. Things seem unlikely to improve at his age and with the current weaponry at his disposal.
LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills: A starting running back, yay! Well, in theory, this could be the case, but it seems unlikely McCoy, on the other side of 30, will see major touches unless he rocks in September, and who expects this? He averaged 3.2 yards per rush last season. Stay away from Washington's Adrian Peterson too. You do not get extra points for career achievements or future Hall of Fame nods.
Golden Tate, WR, New York Giants: No, I do not think he is done as a reasonable PPR provider, but he is suspended for the first four games and I doubt more than half of those drafting Tate will be patient enough to wait for him. Plus, look at the team he is on and the fact the running back catches so many passes. Eh, make it easier on yourself and avoid Tate unless he is your sixth wide receiver.
Kareem Hunt, RB, Cleveland Browns: He is not eligible to play until Week 10 and even then I have doubts he will be blessed with any initial timeshare because Nick Chubb is great. My colleague, Tristan H. Cockcroft, detailed the things you'll need to consider if you decide to take the plunge on Hunt. Are you really willing to use a bench spot on an inactive player for more than two months? You know you are not that patient!
Jordan Reed, TE, Washington Redskins: Not to be mean, but I think I am avoiding everyone from this team this season. Think about it. Derrius Guicecould be great after missing his rookie season, but Peterson is still here, as is pass-catcher Chris Thompson. No wide receivers look like reliable assets, even if there was a quarterback to trust. Then there is Reed, who once was great, but struggles to stay healthy -- to be kind -- and always seems to be questionable each Sunday. I do not waste bench space on a second tight end. It is not as if Reed is producing the numbers commensurate with his attention. While I am it, avoid Greg Olsen, Jason Witten, Tyler Eifert and Tony Gonzalez, too. What is this fascination with old tight ends?
Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots: In real life, there is little doubt. This fellow wins championships and earns all the respect. In fantasy, however, he no longer does this. Brady's 2018 statistical regular season was similar to his 2017 campaign, but it was not close to being top 10 at the position. Things seem unlikely to improve at his age and with the current weaponry at his disposal.
LeSean McCoy, RB, Buffalo Bills: A starting running back, yay! Well, in theory, this could be the case, but it seems unlikely McCoy, on the other side of 30, will see major touches unless he rocks in September, and who expects this? He averaged 3.2 yards per rush last season. Stay away from Washington's Adrian Peterson too. You do not get extra points for career achievements or future Hall of Fame nods.
Golden Tate, WR, New York Giants: No, I do not think he is done as a reasonable PPR provider, but he is suspended for the first four games and I doubt more than half of those drafting Tate will be patient enough to wait for him. Plus, look at the team he is on and the fact the running back catches so many passes. Eh, make it easier on yourself and avoid Tate unless he is your sixth wide receiver.
Kareem Hunt, RB, Cleveland Browns: He is not eligible to play until Week 10 and even then I have doubts he will be blessed with any initial timeshare because Nick Chubb is great. My colleague, Tristan H. Cockcroft, detailed the things you'll need to consider if you decide to take the plunge on Hunt. Are you really willing to use a bench spot on an inactive player for more than two months? You know you are not that patient!
Jordan Reed, TE, Washington Redskins: Not to be mean, but I think I am avoiding everyone from this team this season. Think about it. Derrius Guicecould be great after missing his rookie season, but Peterson is still here, as is pass-catcher Chris Thompson. No wide receivers look like reliable assets, even if there was a quarterback to trust. Then there is Reed, who once was great, but struggles to stay healthy -- to be kind -- and always seems to be questionable each Sunday. I do not waste bench space on a second tight end. It is not as if Reed is producing the numbers commensurate with his attention. While I am it, avoid Greg Olsen, Jason Witten, Tyler Eifert and Tony Gonzalez, too. What is this fascination with old tight ends?
Scouting the top NBA draft prospects at the U18 Euros
The U18 European Championship is easily the NBA's most fertile recruiting ground for international prospects, generating 47 first-round picks in the 15-year span between 2003 and 2017. While European players continue to rack up All-Star nods and prestigious awards, NBA teams didn't flock to this event in droves, as only a handful of U.S.-based executives elected to make their way out to Volos, Greece, for the Division A section of the event.
Nevertheless, the 2001- and 2002-born generations in Europe are considered relatively strong, which should lead to a greater influx of first-round picks in coming drafts than we've seen lately. At least a dozen players made a strong case in Volos as future draft picks, with a handful more putting themselves on the NBA radar in Oradea, Romania, at the more obscure B Division, which we also attended.
A huge contingent of college coaches were present at both events, as there's never been stronger interest in the NCAA ranks in international players, a route that has become increasingly popular even among elite prospects who view it as a legitimate pathway to the NBA.
Spain defeated Turkey in the championship game of the A division, and Poland, Israel and Czech Republic won promotion out of the B Division, replacing Finland, the Netherlands and Latvia.
Here's who we thought were the top NBA prospects in attendance.
1. Usman Garuba | PF | Spain | Age: 17.4
Despite playing up a year and not being draft eligible until 2021, Garuba has been on the radar for a while, having won MVP of the U16 European Championship in 2016 at age 14. Garuba's production hasn't slowed, averaging a gaudy 23.4 points, 19.3 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 2.4 steals and 3.2 blocks per 40 minutes here (even if his efficiency left something to be desired).
Garuba's style of play hasn't changed all that much since he first emerged, as he gets most of his production by beasting weaker players in the post, crashing the offensive glass relentlessly and finishing off picks and cuts with his terrific timing. While there are some questions about just how sustainable that will be at the pro level due to his average size, length and explosiveness, Garuba's terrific body control, elite feel for the game and motor leaves plenty of room for optimism. He's a tremendous passer, a multipositional force defensively, one of the best rebounders in FIBA junior level history and increasingly comfortable pushing the ball or creating his own shot.
Garuba is going to have to continue to expand his shooting range to play the type of Draymond Green-esqe power forward role he looks best suited for at the NBA level. He made only two of his eight 3-point attempts in seven games, showing a fairly flat arc and an unconventional one-handed release point that doesn't inspire great confidence. He knocked down a disappointing 48% of his free throw attempts, dragging down his career average to 55% in the 90 games in our database. His poor 49% true shooting percentage only reinforces the need to continue to work on his jump shot. He struggled to finish plays around the basket, not quite possessing the type of length or explosiveness needed to convert.
Garuba is expected to carve out a minor role with Real Madrid's senior team this season after already seeing a handful of minutes in the Spanish ACB last year, something that should accelerate his development greatly.
2. Tristan Enaruna | SF/PF | Netherlands | Age: 18.1
Enaruna's team was relegated to the B Division, but the Kansas-bound combo forward did demonstrate quite a bit of potential with his combination of physical tools and versatility. Enaruna was one of the most physically gifted players at the event, standing over 6-foot-8 in shoes with a proportioned frame and a wingspan exceeding 7 feet. He made a number of highlight plays over the course of the week showing elite body control and explosiveness creating his own shot, operating above the rim and being a difference-maker defensively when locked in.
But he went through long stretches when he looked disengaged, couldn't buy a basket from the perimeter (5-of-36 from 3) and demonstrated poor shot selection and decision-making. His jumper looks smooth at times but stiff and unnatural in other moments. He seemed to have some kind of mental block at the free throw line, hitting just 21 of 42 attempts. Enaruna's ability to generate offense with a powerful first step, long strides and polished footwork is intriguing at his size, but he'll need to continue to improve his playmaking ability on the move and finish through contact.
Despite the criticism, Enaruna is a tantalizing talent with a skill set not all that dissimilar to Kevin Knox. It will be interesting to see how quickly he can contribute for Bill Self at Kansas.
3. Adem Bona | C | Turkey | Age: 16.3
The youngest player to carve out a rotation role here, the Nigerian-born Bona produced modestly (5 points, 5 rebounds, 2 blocks in 18 MPG) for runner-up Turkey, but nevertheless proved to be one of the most intriguing long-term prospects present. That starts with his terrific physical tools, including an impressive frame, long wingspan and quick-twitch athleticism that allows him to make plays all over the floor.
Only playing basketball seriously for a little more than three years, Bona is fairly raw offensively, but he seems to be making real strides with his skill level. He's a serious lob target coming off ball screens, shows flashes of footwork spinning around in the post for dunks, some ballhandling ability creating his own shot in a straight line and competence passing out of short rolls. With that said, he also turned the ball over on a quarter of his possessions and struggled to score unless spoon-fed directly under the rim. He's also a career 53% free throw shooter in 47 games in our database.
Bona's calling card at the pro level will lie largely on the defensive end, where he showed perhaps the highest long-term potential of any prospect at this event. Bona gets in a deep stance on the perimeter, covers ground seamlessly and shows impressive timing rotating for blocks. He plays with a consistent intensity level and makes himself a major factor on the glass. Bona isn't draft eligible until 2022 at the earliest, so we'll have to continue to track his progress, but the early results look promising.
4. Franz Wagner | SF | Germany | Age: 17.9
Wagner shocked the international basketball community by forgoing a likely starting role in the Euroleague to play for new Michigan coach Juwan Howard. Coming off an impressive year in the German BBL and EuroCup, Wagner was fairly inconsistent in Volos but still showed glimpses of what makes him an intriguing long-term prospect.
Wagner has excellent size for a wing at 6-8 with decent length and a frame that is on the narrow side and will certainly need time to fill out. Wagner's jumper wasn't falling, but he did find other ways to contribute, as he's a versatile player with a knack for putting the ball in the basket, averaging 24 points per 40 minutes with 9 rebounds, 3.5 assists, 1.5 steals and 1.2 blocks. He's aggressive in the open floor, highly creative with the way he finishes around the basket. He shows potential attacking closeouts for pull-up jumpers or even stepbacks from beyond the arc. He's also a team player with a mature approach to the game on both ends.
Wagner has excellent shooting mechanics and made 38% of his 3s this season (and 90% of his free throws), so it is likely that he's a better shooter than what he demonstrated at this tournament. His lack of strength, average athleticism and overall inconsistent play led most scouts in Volos to surmise that Wagner will need a few years of seasoning at Michigan.
5. Malcolm Cazalon | SF | France | Age: 17.9
Cazalon's production fluctuated wildly over the course of the tournament, but he is making nice progress physically, looking the part and then some with his excellent size, length and frame.
Playing on a somewhat rudderless French team with no clear point guard, Cazalon was forced to go out and create his own offense frequently, leading to some brilliant moments in transition, operating out of pick-and-rolls and going one-on-one. He has a nice arsenal of moves getting to his pull-up or stepback, making a number of difficult attempts. Still, his style of play is far from efficient, as evidenced by his 39% shooting from 2. He doesn't get to the line often due to his propensity for avoiding contact inside the paint, and he needs to improve his decision-making on the move. Cazalon has length, rangy movement laterally and instincts disrupting plays defensively, but his intensity level and technique are a work in progress.
Long wings who can create offense, make an outside shot and defend are always going to be prioritized in today's NBA. The fact that Cazalon is being loaned to a strong development situation in Belgium with Leuven this season should help him carve out a solid role at the pro level and keep his stock relevant among scouts in his first draft-eligible season.
6. Santi Aldama | PF | Spain | Age: 18.5
Aldama was the breakout performer here, putting up a top-5 all-time PER and winning MVP honors after helping Spain clinch the championship. Aldama will be scouted heavily immediately upon arrival at Loyola Maryland this upcoming season, as it appears he'll be a significant difference-maker in the Patriot League.
Despite standing 6-11, Aldama started a number of games at small forward in supersized Spanish lineups that opposing teams had little chance of handling. He's a natural power forward with a high skill level, making a large volume of 3s (16-of-46 in seven games), sometimes even shooting off the dribble. Aldama is also capable of creating his own shot and changing speeds while handling the ball -- sometimes finishing impressively, other times finding open teammates while posting an impressive 18-to-5 assist-to-turnover ratio. Although not overly long or strong, Aldama is a fluid athlete who moves well on both ends. There are some questions about how his frame will hold up against stronger players, something we should learn more about at the college level.
Aldama hasn't always shot the ball with this level of accuracy. Due to his only decent physical tools, this is somewhat of a swing skill for him, along with his defense. Aldama did a great job of putting himself on the map with a strong showing and has a lot to build on moving forward at the college level.
7. Aleksej Pokusevski | PF | Serbia | Age: 17.6
Pokusevski started off the tournament with a bang but faded as it moved along, reportedly hampered by a shoulder injury that eventually knocked him out of his team's final game. Nevertheless, it was easy to see his potential as a long-armed 7-foot perimeter player who can shoot off the dribble, pass well and protect the rim. Pokusevski is beginning to fill into his narrow, lanky frame. He does have a solid base, with a standing reach over 9 feet and impressive mobility. Despite having the height and reach of a center, Pokusevski is often tasked with bringing the ball up the court and getting his team into the offense. He possesses a high skill level creating scoring opportunities for himself and others out of pick-and-rolls, sometimes being overly deferential looking to get lesser teammates involved.
Defensively, Pokusevski generated an absurd 4.1 steals, 6.2 blocks and 11.1 rebounds per 40 minutes. But his intensity level often left a lot to be desired, as it's not rare to see him being late to get back on defense or standing completely upright on the perimeter. It will be interesting to see how quickly he's integrated into Olympiacos' senior team in Greece, as there will likely be some skepticism around him among NBA scouts until he can show how his game translates to higher levels, although few will doubt his talent.
8. Juhann Begarin | SG | France | Age: 17.0
The MVP at June's Basketball Without Borders Europe Camp, Begarin did not have a great showing in Volos, going just 1-of-10 on 3s in six games and 5-of-14 free throws with a 5-to-16 assist-to-turnover ratio. He did show the most urgency of anyone on France's team in their surprising meltdown in the quarterfinals against Turkey, coming up with some big baskets late. For the most part, though, he struggled badly to get going in the half court.
Begarin is one of the most talented prospects in Europe from a physical standpoint, translating in his ability to push the ball in the open court, change speeds powerfully and make plays defensively. Despite possessing decent mechanics, his limitations as a shooter really hampered him, and he does not yet have the requisite advanced ballhandling or craft to compensate in other ways. Like many young prospects, his confidence wavers when things aren't going well, and he never seemed to find a rhythm on a French team that was loaded with physical talent but never quite looked like a cohesive unit.
Time is on Begarin's side, but he will have to significantly upgrade his skill level and feel in the coming years to reach his very high ceiling.
9. Moussa Diabate | PF/C | France | Age: 17.5
Averaging 18 points, 18 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per 40 minutes, Diabate was one of the most productive players at this tournament at a relatively young age. Shooting under 50% from the field and 41% from the line, he didn't quite find a level of scoring efficiency, but part of that came from playing out of position at power forward on a French team that didn't have any real playmakers.
Standing around 6-10, with a wiry frame, long arms and nice fluidity, Diabate was simply too mobile and quick off his feet for most big men at this level to handle. That translated especially on the offensive glass, where he demonstrated impressive instincts going out of his area frequently to the tune of 10 offensive boards per 40 minutes, the best rate at this event dating back to 2000. In other settings such as the Nike EYBL this spring, Diabate wasn't anywhere near as productive, so it will be interesting to see how this translates to higher levels of competition.
Diabate's ability to sprint the floor, catch everything thrown his way, finish around the rim and make plays with soft touch give him a nice framework long term. He showed some potential both protecting the rim and stepping out on the perimeter, getting in a deep stance and sliding his feet to cover ground. His body still has a long way to go to fully fill out and allow him to anchor a defense, and he could be more physical on both ends. Continuing to expand his shooting range out to the 3-point line will also be a major key. Diabate plays a bit of a tentative style at times, as he's still figuring out just who he is as a player.
Based in the U.S. -- he recently moved to IMG Academy in Florida -- there is some talk in scouting circles that he may end up reclassifying to 2020, which could accelerate his NBA draft schedule. His frame, skill and feel for the game will all need to improve significantly to emerge as a legitimate one-and-done prospect, but he certainly helped his cause with a strong showing.
10. Ariel Hukporti | C | Germany | Age: 17.3
Hukporti had a productive showing in Volos, averaging 19 points, 12 rebounds and 3 blocks per 40 minutes in a somewhat confined role. Hukporti is blessed with a tremendous frame, excellent length, strong mobility and more skill than most players his age at his size. He's a huge target in the post, running the floor and rolling to the rim fluidly, and he doesn't need much runway to get up and finish plays around the rim. The 4-to-21 assist-to-turnover ratio he posted isn't ideal, but that could have been a function of his role.
Defensively, Hukporti isn't the rangiest or most fluid big man stepping out on pick-and-rolls, looking a little upright in his stance and not always bringing the type of physicality or urgency you might hope. This will be a major key for him projecting forward. Adding some range on his jumper and becoming a more consistent free throw shooter would help, too. The 2002-born native of Togo in West Africa has time to figure these things out, as he's in a strong development situation in Ludwigsburg in Germany, where he may see some playing time at the pro level this season.
Honorable mention
Luc Van Slooten | SF/PF | Germany | Age: 17.3
Van Slooten impressed with his physical tools and versatility. He's a good ball handler and passer who can also make plays defensively thanks to his 220-pound frame and length. Van Slooten's jump-shot looks good but isn't consistent, which is something he'll need to work on moving forward. He will likely have an opportunity to carve out some type of role in the German BBL next season with Rasta Vechta.
Matthieu Gauzin | PG | France | Age: 18.4
Playing a spark plug role off the bench, Gauzin was productive in the playing time he was given (24 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 6 steals per 40 minutes) but struggled with consistency. Gauzin's jumper -- clearly his swing-skill -- wasn't falling here. Athletically, he was on another level, with a quick first step and the ability to change speeds powerfully in the open court. Gauzin isn't quite as effective in the half court due to his struggles reading the floor and shooting off the dribble, and his body language can leave a lot to be desired. Nevertheless, Gauzin's ability to pick up opponents full-court defensively is intriguing. Gauzin should be able to get minutes in the French Pro A league next season, which will be important for his progression.
Yannick Kraag | SG | Netherlands | Age: 16.8
The third-youngest player to see rotation minutes, Kraag started off slowly but showed some serious intrigue as things moved along. Standing over 6-7 with a near 7-foot wingspan, Kraag has impressive dimensions for a wing, although he currently weighs just 170 pounds. A smooth, fluid athlete who can play above the rim, Kraag showed flashes of potential defending, attacking the basket and shooting from the outside, even if his skill, feel and strength are still works in progress. Kraag is expected to move to Spain to play for Joventut Badalona, which should be good for his long-term development.
Division B prospects
1. Pelle Larsson | PG/SG | Sweden | Age: 18.4
Larsson has made a major leap forward, posting impressive per 40 minute averages of 23.1 points, 10.4 rebounds, 8.1 assists, 2.7 steals and 2.6 blocks. While some of that is due to the low level of competition, it was difficult not to be impressed by his athleticism and versatility. Larsson has good size for a guard, a strong frame, long arms and a quick first step. He shouldered significant ballhandling responsibilities, demonstrating excellent creativity, vision and feel. Considered a non-shooter earlier in his career, Larsson displayed some progress in this area by making four 3s in eight games as well as 77% of his free throw attempts -- although this is the part of his game that needs the most work to unlock his full potential. Defensively, Larsson was usually tasked with guarding the other team's best perimeter player and he looked up for the challenge. Larsson will continue to play for Swedish BG Lulea next season.
2. Kacper Klaczek | SF/PF | Poland | Age: 17.5
Klaczek's strong scoring eventually tapered off, although he still found ways to contribute. His terrific versatility helped him average an excellent 11 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals and nearly 3 blocks per 40 minutes. Klaczek moves like a wing but is big enough to play the 4 at most levels, standing around 6-8 with a strong frame, long arms and athleticism. He's a very good defender who can switch. He's also a team player who contributes to ball movement with heady passes in transition and dishes on drives. His ballhandling is a little clunky creating his own shot in the half court, and he's not yet the shooter he needs to be at this stage, even if there is technically nothing wrong with his stroke.
3. Rati Andronikashvili | PG | Georgia | Age: 18.3
Andronikashvili is an incredibly talented ballhandler and passer but he plays with poor body language on the court. Few players his age are this gifted operating out of pick-and-roll. However, Andronikashvili's propensity for attempting big plays on nearly every other possession (leading to a huge number of turnovers), his streaky jumper and his lackadaisical defense are things he'll have to improve to find a role at the pro level.
4. Andrej Jakimovski | PF | North Macedonia | Age: 18.3
Jakimovski was the most productive player at the U18 Bs, posting an impressive 25 points, 13 rebounds, 4 assists and 2.5 blocks per 40 minutes on excellent efficiency numbers (64% true shooting). While mostly playing the 4, Jakimovski was asked to shoulder significant ballhandling responsibilities, showing excellent fluidity and body control operating out of pick-and-rolls, going one-on-one and pushing the ball. He got to the free throw line prolifically and hit 93% of his attempts. He also threw in 17 3s over the course of seven games, many of which came off the dribble while defended. But there are some questions about how Jakimovski's game will translate against better athletes, as he needs quite a few dribbles to go anywhere and he struggles to beat better defenders off the bounce.
Defensively, Jakimovski is somewhat stuck between positions, not possessing great size, length or athleticism. His feel and competitiveness help mask that some, but he'll have to show that won't be an issue playing against better opponents.
5. Ondrej Hanzlik | SF | Czech Republic | Age: 17.4
Hanzlik is worth keeping an eye on thanks to his excellent size for a wing at 6-8, strong build, decent length and solid athleticism. His calling card lies with his outside shot, as he's very dangerous when left open and also capable of shooting on the move. Hanzlik isn't terribly consistent, making 35% of his 320-plus career attempts according to our database, struggling in particular when rushed.
The rest of Hanzlik's game is a work in progress, particularly his defense. While capable of making some moves and finishing with touch, he's not much of a threat to create shots for himself. Hanzlik left the Czech Republic and is developing in Spain with Baskonia.
Averaging 18 points, 18 rebounds and 3.5 blocks per 40 minutes, Diabate was one of the most productive players at this tournament at a relatively young age. Shooting under 50% from the field and 41% from the line, he didn't quite find a level of scoring efficiency, but part of that came from playing out of position at power forward on a French team that didn't have any real playmakers.
Standing around 6-10, with a wiry frame, long arms and nice fluidity, Diabate was simply too mobile and quick off his feet for most big men at this level to handle. That translated especially on the offensive glass, where he demonstrated impressive instincts going out of his area frequently to the tune of 10 offensive boards per 40 minutes, the best rate at this event dating back to 2000. In other settings such as the Nike EYBL this spring, Diabate wasn't anywhere near as productive, so it will be interesting to see how this translates to higher levels of competition.
Diabate's ability to sprint the floor, catch everything thrown his way, finish around the rim and make plays with soft touch give him a nice framework long term. He showed some potential both protecting the rim and stepping out on the perimeter, getting in a deep stance and sliding his feet to cover ground. His body still has a long way to go to fully fill out and allow him to anchor a defense, and he could be more physical on both ends. Continuing to expand his shooting range out to the 3-point line will also be a major key. Diabate plays a bit of a tentative style at times, as he's still figuring out just who he is as a player.
Based in the U.S. -- he recently moved to IMG Academy in Florida -- there is some talk in scouting circles that he may end up reclassifying to 2020, which could accelerate his NBA draft schedule. His frame, skill and feel for the game will all need to improve significantly to emerge as a legitimate one-and-done prospect, but he certainly helped his cause with a strong showing.
10. Ariel Hukporti | C | Germany | Age: 17.3
Hukporti had a productive showing in Volos, averaging 19 points, 12 rebounds and 3 blocks per 40 minutes in a somewhat confined role. Hukporti is blessed with a tremendous frame, excellent length, strong mobility and more skill than most players his age at his size. He's a huge target in the post, running the floor and rolling to the rim fluidly, and he doesn't need much runway to get up and finish plays around the rim. The 4-to-21 assist-to-turnover ratio he posted isn't ideal, but that could have been a function of his role.
Defensively, Hukporti isn't the rangiest or most fluid big man stepping out on pick-and-rolls, looking a little upright in his stance and not always bringing the type of physicality or urgency you might hope. This will be a major key for him projecting forward. Adding some range on his jumper and becoming a more consistent free throw shooter would help, too. The 2002-born native of Togo in West Africa has time to figure these things out, as he's in a strong development situation in Ludwigsburg in Germany, where he may see some playing time at the pro level this season.
Honorable mention
Luc Van Slooten | SF/PF | Germany | Age: 17.3
Van Slooten impressed with his physical tools and versatility. He's a good ball handler and passer who can also make plays defensively thanks to his 220-pound frame and length. Van Slooten's jump-shot looks good but isn't consistent, which is something he'll need to work on moving forward. He will likely have an opportunity to carve out some type of role in the German BBL next season with Rasta Vechta.
Matthieu Gauzin | PG | France | Age: 18.4
Playing a spark plug role off the bench, Gauzin was productive in the playing time he was given (24 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 6 steals per 40 minutes) but struggled with consistency. Gauzin's jumper -- clearly his swing-skill -- wasn't falling here. Athletically, he was on another level, with a quick first step and the ability to change speeds powerfully in the open court. Gauzin isn't quite as effective in the half court due to his struggles reading the floor and shooting off the dribble, and his body language can leave a lot to be desired. Nevertheless, Gauzin's ability to pick up opponents full-court defensively is intriguing. Gauzin should be able to get minutes in the French Pro A league next season, which will be important for his progression.
Yannick Kraag | SG | Netherlands | Age: 16.8
The third-youngest player to see rotation minutes, Kraag started off slowly but showed some serious intrigue as things moved along. Standing over 6-7 with a near 7-foot wingspan, Kraag has impressive dimensions for a wing, although he currently weighs just 170 pounds. A smooth, fluid athlete who can play above the rim, Kraag showed flashes of potential defending, attacking the basket and shooting from the outside, even if his skill, feel and strength are still works in progress. Kraag is expected to move to Spain to play for Joventut Badalona, which should be good for his long-term development.
Division B prospects
1. Pelle Larsson | PG/SG | Sweden | Age: 18.4
Larsson has made a major leap forward, posting impressive per 40 minute averages of 23.1 points, 10.4 rebounds, 8.1 assists, 2.7 steals and 2.6 blocks. While some of that is due to the low level of competition, it was difficult not to be impressed by his athleticism and versatility. Larsson has good size for a guard, a strong frame, long arms and a quick first step. He shouldered significant ballhandling responsibilities, demonstrating excellent creativity, vision and feel. Considered a non-shooter earlier in his career, Larsson displayed some progress in this area by making four 3s in eight games as well as 77% of his free throw attempts -- although this is the part of his game that needs the most work to unlock his full potential. Defensively, Larsson was usually tasked with guarding the other team's best perimeter player and he looked up for the challenge. Larsson will continue to play for Swedish BG Lulea next season.
2. Kacper Klaczek | SF/PF | Poland | Age: 17.5
Klaczek's strong scoring eventually tapered off, although he still found ways to contribute. His terrific versatility helped him average an excellent 11 rebounds, 5 assists, 3 steals and nearly 3 blocks per 40 minutes. Klaczek moves like a wing but is big enough to play the 4 at most levels, standing around 6-8 with a strong frame, long arms and athleticism. He's a very good defender who can switch. He's also a team player who contributes to ball movement with heady passes in transition and dishes on drives. His ballhandling is a little clunky creating his own shot in the half court, and he's not yet the shooter he needs to be at this stage, even if there is technically nothing wrong with his stroke.
3. Rati Andronikashvili | PG | Georgia | Age: 18.3
Andronikashvili is an incredibly talented ballhandler and passer but he plays with poor body language on the court. Few players his age are this gifted operating out of pick-and-roll. However, Andronikashvili's propensity for attempting big plays on nearly every other possession (leading to a huge number of turnovers), his streaky jumper and his lackadaisical defense are things he'll have to improve to find a role at the pro level.
4. Andrej Jakimovski | PF | North Macedonia | Age: 18.3
Jakimovski was the most productive player at the U18 Bs, posting an impressive 25 points, 13 rebounds, 4 assists and 2.5 blocks per 40 minutes on excellent efficiency numbers (64% true shooting). While mostly playing the 4, Jakimovski was asked to shoulder significant ballhandling responsibilities, showing excellent fluidity and body control operating out of pick-and-rolls, going one-on-one and pushing the ball. He got to the free throw line prolifically and hit 93% of his attempts. He also threw in 17 3s over the course of seven games, many of which came off the dribble while defended. But there are some questions about how Jakimovski's game will translate against better athletes, as he needs quite a few dribbles to go anywhere and he struggles to beat better defenders off the bounce.
Defensively, Jakimovski is somewhat stuck between positions, not possessing great size, length or athleticism. His feel and competitiveness help mask that some, but he'll have to show that won't be an issue playing against better opponents.
5. Ondrej Hanzlik | SF | Czech Republic | Age: 17.4
Hanzlik is worth keeping an eye on thanks to his excellent size for a wing at 6-8, strong build, decent length and solid athleticism. His calling card lies with his outside shot, as he's very dangerous when left open and also capable of shooting on the move. Hanzlik isn't terribly consistent, making 35% of his 320-plus career attempts according to our database, struggling in particular when rushed.
The rest of Hanzlik's game is a work in progress, particularly his defense. While capable of making some moves and finishing with touch, he's not much of a threat to create shots for himself. Hanzlik left the Czech Republic and is developing in Spain with Baskonia.
NBA draft takeaways from the 2019 Nike Basketball Academy
Nearly 60 future NBA prospects congregated outside Los Angeles last weekend at the Nike Basketball Academy, which featured 24 of the top prospects in college basketball and 32 elite high school players. The players conducted two workouts per day, with an All-Star showcase game of high school players held on the fourth day in the midst of the Drew League Playoffs.
Morning sessions centered on drill work and skill development under the tutelage of former NBA players and assistant coaches including Miles Simon, Melvin Hunt, Rasheed Wallace, Brian Shaw and Amare Stoudemire. In the evening, both the high schoolers and college counselors played in competitive 5-on-5 games, which were heavily attended by NBA scouts and decision-makers, including a handful of general managers. Throughout the weekend, NBA players such as Bradley Beal, Devin Booker, DeMar DeRozan and Stanley Johnson jumped into drills and scrimmages.
Here are the most notable performances from the college group that featured at least 16 players in our yet-to-be-released top 100 2020 draft rankings.
Cole Anthony | Freshman | North Carolina | 6-foot-3 | PG
Anthony started off slowly but was one of the best players in the final evening of scrimmages. His frame has continued to fill out since enrolling at Chapel Hill, and his aggression was on display all week: He attacked the rim in the open floor, handled the ball on a string, changed speeds fluidly and was not afraid of absorbing contact in the lane. His tough-minded approach translates to the defensive end, as well. Anthony is highly competitive and active on and off the ball, and he isn't afraid to sacrifice his body and dive on the floor for loose balls.
His playmaking ability, however, is somewhat of a work in progress. He needs a lot of dribbles to effectively create shots for himself and others, and he demonstrated some questionable decision-making at times with inaccurate passes, forcing the issue in the lane or from the perimeter. On the other hand, his deadly crossover and advanced ballhandling skills were on full display with his ability to create space and thread the needle in drive-and-dish situations. Anthony will make a living at the free throw line in college thanks to his powerful first step and attacking style of play. His advanced scoring instincts and soft touch off the glass open up tough midrange shots and floaters.
Anthony's jumper was fairly streaky, as it takes him a while to get into his unconventional pull-up, and he has quite a bit of extra motion on his spot-up jumper that makes it easier for defenders to get up and contest his hitchy release.
Scouts were impressed that Anthony didn't sit out a scrimmage despite being the highest-ranked player in attendance, and there's little doubt he'll put up huge scoring numbers as a freshman with the green light he'll enjoy from Roy Williams at UNC.
Obi Toppin | So. | Dayton | 6-8 | PF
Toppin likely would have been named camp MVP had such an award existed. He had an overwhelmingly positive weekend that firmly catapulted him into the conversation as a first-round draft pick. Toppin doesn't possess elite size, length or strength for a power forward, but he was arguably the best athlete among the big men in attendance.
But the biggest revelation of the weekend was just how good a shooter he is. His shooting ability wasn't quite evident during his freshman season at Dayton, where he made just 11 of 21 3-pointers in 33 games. Toppin showed projectable mechanics, and he made a huge number of open spot-up opportunities with a quick, pure and confident release. He also possesses the ability to attack a closeout when run off the line and to even make basic passes on the move.
He demonstrated an impressive defensive versatility, both putting a body on bigger players and sliding with guards along the perimeter. He is a little upright in his stance at times, a product of his high-hipped frame, but he often is able to make up for that by his sheer athleticism and a strong feel for the game.
Toppin's excellent demeanor and willingness to do the little things -- and that he doesn't need plays called for him -- made him easy to play with, something that certainly endeared him to scouts who clearly came away impressed with his versatility. Toppin will be moving up at least 20 spots in our next mock draft update.
Kahlil Whitney | Fr. | Kentucky | 6-7 | SF/PF
Whitney was arguably the most impressive player in the first evening of scrimmages, and though his performance tapered off afterward, he still had an eye-opening weekend. Part of that is due to his 207-pound physique, which boasts measurements similar to those of Andre Roberson and Thaddeus Young.
Whitney's athleticism stood out consistently. He put his ahead above the rim on numerous occasions, both finishing lobs and creating shots himself. At this stage, his physical tools are best utilized on the defensive end. He has the strength to put a body on almost any big man, but the length and mobility to slide with perimeter players using rangy strides affords him the type of multipositional versatility NBA teams covet.
Offensively, Whitney likely will be somewhat of a mixed bag as a freshman. His ballhandling skills aren't very functional in the half-court -- he can't always generate good looks operating out of pick-and-roll or isolation situations -- and he had a difficult time bringing the ball up against pressure. He did show flashes of getting low with his dribble and changing speeds powerfully, using his strong frame to get to his spots in the midrange or bouncing off opponents en route to the rim. His jumper is a work in progress. He is capable of throwing in pull-ups inside the arc, but he has a somewhat slow and mechanical release that makes him fairly inconsistent from 3-point range. Nevertheless, his solid mechanics and a bit of touch leave room for optimism.
It will be intriguing to see how Whitney is utilized at Kentucky. He has ample strength and length for a power forward, and he likely would benefit from the added spacing of being guarded by slower defenders and surrounded by additional shooting. John Calipari has traditionally used players of Whitney's mold on the wing, however. That could make for some ugly moments offensively but likely will prove very difficult to score against on the other end of the floor.
Jay Scrubb | So. | John A. Logan College | 6-5 | SG/SF
Scrubb has helped himself considerably over the past two months. Prior to an impressive performance last weekend, he more than held his own against elite high school and college players at the USA Basketball U19 Training Camp in Colorado Springs, Colorado, though he ultimately did not make the final roster. A rising sophomore at Illinois' John A. Logan College, Scrubb is considered the nation's top juco prospect, and he is being recruited by some of the top Division I schools in the country for his final two seasons of eligibility, starting in 2020. There is talk that Scrubb might not step foot on a Division I campus, though, as he reportedly will consider entering the 2020 NBA draft.
Scrubb has strong physical tools, including the size and length for either wing position, along with his athletic ability. He showed a versatile skill set in L.A., particularly defensively, where he stayed in front many of the top guards at the camp with his long wingspan and solid lateral quickness. Scrubb made 46% of his 3-pointers last season -- on a small sample size -- but was a little streaky from beyond the arc, looking better in midrange spots. He is very good in the open court, putting his head on the rim on a number of occasions with impressive explosiveness. He is effective at attacking closeouts and driving in a straight line, and he enjoys some creativity with the way he finishes around the rim, thanks to his polished footwork.
Still refining his skill set, he is somewhat raw with his ballhandling, playmaking and decision-making in the half-court. This doesn't come as a shock considering he still is 18 and doesn't possess the same type of high-level experience as other players we've seen him match up against. Yet he has shown enough to put himself on the NBA radar, and he likely will continue to be monitored closely over the next 10 months and beyond, should he elect to transfer to a Division I school.
Payton Pritchard | Sr. | Oregon | 6-2 | PG
Pritchard emerged as one of the best point guards in college basketball while leading Oregon to a 10-game winning streak to finish the season and helping the Ducks win the Pac-12 championship, before eventually bowing out in the Sweet 16 of the NCAA tournament. Pritchard had an extremely impressive weekend that seemed to cause some scouts to rethink their stance on his NBA prospects.
His toughness was evident in every moment of each scrimmage he played in, including those against NBA guards such as Beal, with whom he went toe-to-toe on a number of possessions and more than held his own. Pritchard's skill and IQ stood out as much as his competitiveness. He did a great job of creating offense, changing gears in the open floor with his dynamic ballhandling ability, getting to the rim repeatedly and finishing aggressively through contact, while also doing an excellent job of getting others involved. His shot-making ability was reminiscent of his sophomore season -- during which he made 41% of his 3-pointers -- rather than his 33% proficiency as a junior; all of which is a bit of a swing skill for him, when evaluating his NBA projection.
Even on nights when Pritchard's jumper isn't falling, he still shows the willingness to pick up opponents in the backcourt and make things miserable with his ability to slide his feet, use his strong frame and take charges. If Pritchard doesn't hear his name called on draft night, he is the type of player who will have a great chance to carve out an NBA career through training camp or a two-way contract.
Scottie Lewis | Fr. | Florida | 6-5 | SG
Lewis had a fairly rough outing from an efficiency standpoint, struggling to get much going offensively in the half-court over the first two days of scrimmages, before finally breaking out on the final day. The camp ended on a sour note for Lewis, who went down hard after chasing down Colorado's Tyler Bey for an open-court block. He later announced that the injury will only sideline him for a week. That play was a perfect example of what scouts like so much about Lewis. He is not only an exceptional athlete, but he operates with incredible intensity on every possession, allowing him to make plays all over the floor. Learning how to better channel that intensity will help him go from an elite prospect to a more productive and consistent player as his career moves forward.
Lewis looked fairly wild and sped up early on in the camp, not being as dynamic a ball handler as he needs to be at this stage, often settling for the first floater or pull-up jumper he could find. He made some impressive plays in the open court using his terrific body control and explosiveness to get to the rim and finish, however. While his shot was very inconsistent, he did make enough pull-ups to prove there's enough to work with in the long term. Defensively, he was one of the best players at the camp, despite his frame being very much on the narrow side. (He has added only 5 pounds over the past three years, according to the latest batch of measurements.) His 7-foot-plus wingspan, exceptionally quick feet and incessant motor allow him to absolutely smother opposing players in the backcourt, and it was fun seeing how pesky he was trying to get up right in the grill of NBA players such as Beal and Booker.
Lewis still has a lot of work to do in ironing out the rough parts of his game, but NBA scouts seem willing to be patient with his development because of his strengths and outstanding intangibles.
Mamadi Diakite | Sr. | Virginia | 6-9 | C
Diakite seemingly has had a great summer working on his body, as he weighed in 18 pounds heavier than he did three months ago at the G League Combine, and he possesses measurables that compare favorably to those of Kevon Looney, Pascal Siakam and Eric Moreland. While the results were fairly uneven, he made a handful of extremely memorable plays over the course of the weekend that showed just how high his potential is defensively. Diakite was easily one of the best athletes at the camp, especially in terms of his ability to get off his feet with incredible ease for blocks and dunks. He also proved capable of stepping out and guarding anyone on the perimeter, getting deep in a stance, sliding his feet with impressive agility and using his 7-foot-4 wingspan to make plays all over the floor.
Offensively, Diakite is a major work in progress. He loves to catch and hold and can be very wild with his decision-making, rarely passing the ball and instead settling for difficult jumpers that often look good coming out of his hand but don't go in very often. He actually has good-looking shooting mechanics -- as evidenced by the 74% rate he shot from the free throw line over the past two seasons -- but that hasn't translated to game settings yet, largely due to the sped-up brand of basketball he plays.
Diakite's athleticism and defensive versatility give him a chance to find his way onto an NBA roster at some point, provided the game ever slows down for him and he can become a more consistent rebounder and decision-maker. With all four of Virginia's other starters off to the NBA, scouts will be able to evaluate Diakite in a very different light as compared with the confined role he played on last year's national championship squad, something that undoubtedly will lead to some highs and lows.
A number of players we evaluated in detail at the FIBA U19 World Cup in Crete, such as Tyrese Haliburton, Reggie Perry and Kira Lewis, also were in attendance, along with most of the best high school prospects at this camp, such as Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green, Ziaire Williams and Scottie Barnes.
Diakite seemingly has had a great summer working on his body, as he weighed in 18 pounds heavier than he did three months ago at the G League Combine, and he possesses measurables that compare favorably to those of Kevon Looney, Pascal Siakam and Eric Moreland. While the results were fairly uneven, he made a handful of extremely memorable plays over the course of the weekend that showed just how high his potential is defensively. Diakite was easily one of the best athletes at the camp, especially in terms of his ability to get off his feet with incredible ease for blocks and dunks. He also proved capable of stepping out and guarding anyone on the perimeter, getting deep in a stance, sliding his feet with impressive agility and using his 7-foot-4 wingspan to make plays all over the floor.
Offensively, Diakite is a major work in progress. He loves to catch and hold and can be very wild with his decision-making, rarely passing the ball and instead settling for difficult jumpers that often look good coming out of his hand but don't go in very often. He actually has good-looking shooting mechanics -- as evidenced by the 74% rate he shot from the free throw line over the past two seasons -- but that hasn't translated to game settings yet, largely due to the sped-up brand of basketball he plays.
Diakite's athleticism and defensive versatility give him a chance to find his way onto an NBA roster at some point, provided the game ever slows down for him and he can become a more consistent rebounder and decision-maker. With all four of Virginia's other starters off to the NBA, scouts will be able to evaluate Diakite in a very different light as compared with the confined role he played on last year's national championship squad, something that undoubtedly will lead to some highs and lows.
A number of players we evaluated in detail at the FIBA U19 World Cup in Crete, such as Tyrese Haliburton, Reggie Perry and Kira Lewis, also were in attendance, along with most of the best high school prospects at this camp, such as Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green, Ziaire Williams and Scottie Barnes.
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Law: Shane Bieber and four other players I was wrong about
I admit it -- I was never a Belieber. At least not when it came to Shane.
Shane Bieber was on my radar plenty as a prospect; you couldn't miss those walk rates as he never walked more than 2.5% of opposing batters at any level until he got to Triple-A, where his control went completely off the cliff and he walked all of ... uh, 3.4% of batters he faced. He was always working with fairly average stuff, though, and never missed all that many bats, which was partly evidenced by strikeout rates that were good-not-great, usually below one per inning. He was homer-prone, however, which is unsurprising for a guy who throws a ton of strikes and doesn't have a plus pitch.
This year, however, Bieber has been a different pitcher thanks to tweaks to several of his pitches. He's still homer-prone, but he's missing so many more bats that he's minimized the damage. He throws harder now than he did in college, and the velocity was there in his unremarkable debut last year. He tweaked the grip on his changeup, getting five more inches of horizontal break on the pitch this year, but his slider was his most effective pitch in 2019 -- 43% of his swings and misses this year came on his slider. Most important, I think, is that he cut the use of his four-seamer, so that he's now throwing his three secondaries a majority of the time. He gave up 18 of his 30 homers this year on the four-seamer, meaning he gave up 60% of his homers on a pitch he threw 44% of the time, so using it less is a smart move.
Bieber is fifth in the American League in fWAR as I write this and seventh in Baseball-Reference.com's WAR, so he has undeniably been an ace this season. If his slider, which is actually breaking a little less this year than in 2018, really is this kind of swing-and-miss pitch, I see he no reason he can't be one for several years to come.
So he leads my annual column of players I was wrong about -- always on the low side, as it's no fun for anyone to talk about players I thought would be good but ended up flaming out, especially not for those players. You can see previous versions of this column for 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 | 2012.
Matthew Boyd, RHP, Detroit Tigers. Speaking of homer-prone prospects, when Boyd was a fringe prospect in the Blue Jays' system, he didn't even project as so much as a fifth starter; he was a control guy without a clearly average pitch, and while he wasn't homer-prone in the minors, it looked very likely he would become so in the majors. He was: 17 homers in 51 innings in 2015, 17 homers again in 92 innings in 2016. Since 2017, however, he's redesigned his slider, improving its vertical break by more than 15 inches between 2017 and 2019, and it's a legitimate out pitch, with pitch values of 30 runs above average total since the start of 2018. He's still homer-prone, and none of his other pitches grades out as average, but he's a viable major-league starter now, whereas when he was still a Jays prospect, I didn't think he would become one.
Jeff McNeil, IF/OF, New York Mets. McNeil never made any of my prospect rankings, as he neither performed well as a young pro player nor showed any plus tools. By the time he started to produce, he was 26 years old in Double-A last year, way too old for those stats to be meaningful predictors, and then he continued to hit in the hitters' paradise of Las Vegas in Triple-A. A small shift in where he starts his hands unlocked some more power, enough that he's made consistently hard contact since his call-up just over a year ago. One statistical note I find interesting, although it could merely be a sample-size issue, is that since this year's All-Star break he's had a totally different profile as a hitter, losing 126 points of BABIP from the first half but adding almost that quantity of isolated power, with 14 homers in 50 games and a .267/.352/.550 line. I'll be very curious to see how McNeil, who had never showed even average power prior to 2018, balances his natural ability to put the ball in play with this newfound power.
Luis Castillo, RHP, Cincinnati Reds. I really didn't think Castillo could be an effective starter, let alone a No. 2, without a viable breaking ball -- and his arm slot will always make it difficult for him to throw one. He's done so despite the lack of that average third pitch because his fastball and changeup are so good, and he only uses his below-average slider about 17% of the time, and just under 10% of the time when he's facing left-handed batters. He's also been much more effective in 2019 at keeping the ball in the park thanks to a much-improved ground ball rate, something he does with both his fastball and his plus-plus changeup, which Fangraphs has as the most valuable changeup in baseball this year, a ridiculous 9 runs better than the next-best (Hyun-Jin Ryu's). Castillo doesn't even have above-average command or control, which I might have assumed was a requirement for a de facto two-pitch pitcher to become this good of a starter; if he ever develops that, he would be an ace. His success has made me more bullish on Padres starter Chris Paddack, who also has a plus fastball/70 changeup/45 breaking ball, with less sink but better control. (It doesn't work quite as well when the two pitches are a fastball and curveball or slider, because such pitchers nearly always show large platoon splits.)
Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Cincinnati Reds: I just have to add that I never in a million years thought Eugenio Suarez would come close to 50 homers. If you had told me when I saw him as a prospect with the Tigers that he'd get to 30 homers, I would have probably said you were being wildly optimistic. Even with the juiced ball and Cincinnati's home park, I wouldn't have guessed he'd get past 45. And I remember saying nice things about him back then, and when the Reds acquired him in a trade. He's just become two grades better as a player than I ever thought possible.
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NBA mock draft: LaMelo Ball is now a real No. 1 pick contender
There are brand-new lottery picks in our latest 2020 NBA mock draft, with LaMelo Ball moving up more than 20 spots to crash the top three.
ESPN draft analysts Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have spent the summer scouting prospects across the globe, and it's time to update our projections for the upcoming draft with the latest intel.
The international crowd is already making moves. Ball and RJ Hampton both impressed at the NBL Blitz in Tasmania, and Deni Avdija notched a FIBA U20 MVP.
Here's the latest on the draft picks, with analysis from Givony on what you need to know.
2020 NBA mock draft
Pick Player Team HT POS Age
1. CLE James Wiseman Memphis 7-1 C 18.4
2. CHA Anthony Edwards Georgia 6-3 SG 18.1
3. NYK LaMelo Ball Illawarra 6-7 PG 18.0
4. MEM Cole Anthony North Carolina 6-3 PG/SG 19.3
5. PHX Deni Avdija Maccabi Tel Aviv 6-9 SG/SF 18.7
6. WAS RJ Hampton NZ Breakers 6-5 PG 18.6
7. CHI Theo Maledon ASVEL 6-5 PG 18.2
8. OKC Nico Mannion Arizona 6-3 PG 18.5
9. ATL Jaden McDaniels Washington 6-10 SF/PF 18.9
10. SAC Scottie Lewis Florida 6-5 SG/SF 19.5
11. MIN Precious Achiuwa Memphis 6-9 PF 20.0
12. DET Kahlil Whitney Kentucky 6-7 SF/PF 18.7
13. NOP Isaiah Stewart Washington 6-9 C 18.3
14. DAL Tyrese Maxey Kentucky 6-3 SG 18.8
15. ORL Tyrese Haliburton Iowa St 6-5 PG 19.5
16. SAS Matthew Hurt Duke 6-9 SF/PF 19.4
17. MIA Trendon Watford LSU 6-9 SF/PF 18.8
18. TOR Tre Jones Duke 6-3 PG 19.7
19. ATL (via BKN) Wendell Moore Duke 6-6 SF 18.0
20. MIL (via IND) Patrick Williams FSU 6-8 SF/PF 18.0
21. POR Killian Hayes Ulm 6-5 PG/SG 18.1
22. BOS Josh Green Arizona 6-6 SG 18.8
23. BKN (via GSW) Karim Mane Vanier College 6-6 SG 19.3
24. LAL Obi Toppin Dayton 6-9 PF 21.5
25. UTA Amar Sylla Oostende 6-9 PF/C 17.9
26. HOU Josiah James Tennessee 6-6 SG 19.0
27. LAC Vernon Carey Duke 6-10 C 18.5
28. OKC (via DEN) A.J. Lawson South Carolina 6-6 SG 19.1
29. BKN (via PHI) Ayo Dosunmu Illinois 6-4 PG/SG 19.6
30. BOS (via MIL) Ashton Hagans Kentucky 6-3 PG 20.2
31. CHA (via CLE) Henri Drell Pesaro 6-9 SF/PF 19.4
32. NYK (via CHA) Aaron Nesmith Vanderbilt 6-6 SF 19.9
33. PHI (via NYK) Jalen Smith Maryland 6-10 PF 19.5
34. WAS (via MEM) Kira Lewis Alabama 6-3 PG 18.4
35. MEM (via PHX) Jay Scrubb John A. Logan 6-5 SG 19.0
36. NOP (via WAS) Paul Eboua Pesaro 6-8 PF 19.6
37. CHI Isaiah Joe Arkansas 6-5 SG 20.2
38. OKC Jordan Nwora Louisville 6-8 SF/PF 21.0
39. PHI (via ATL) Devon Dotson Kansas 6-2 PG 20.1
40. SAC Reggie Perry Mississippi St. 6-9 PF/C 19.5
41. MIN Filip Petrusev Gonzaga 7-0 PF/C 19.4
42. SAC (via DEN) Malcolm Cazalon Leuven 6-6 SG/SF 18.0
43. NOP A.J. Reeves Providence 6-5 SG 20.3
44. PHI (via DAL) Arturs Zagars Joventut 6-3 PG 19.4
45. ORL Cassius Winston Michigan St. 6-1 PG 21.5
46. SAS Xavier Johnson Pittsburgh 6-3 PG 19.9
47. SAC (via MIA) Derrick Alston Boise St. 6-8 SF/PF 22.0
48. TOR Terry Armstrong SE Melbourne 6-7 SG/SF 19.1
49. BOS (via BKN) Dalibor Ilic Igokea 6-9 PF 19.5
50. IND Matthieu Gauzin Le Mans 6-4 PG 18.5
51. POR Gytis Masiulis Neptunas 6-9 PF 21.4
52. BOS Paul Reed DePaul 6-9 PF 20.2
53. DAL (via GSW) Georgios Kalaitzakis Nevezis 6-6 SG 20.6
54. ORL (via LAL) Paul Scruggs Xavier 6-3 PG/SG 21.5
55. DAL (via UTA) Jarron Cumberland Cincinnati 6-5 SG 22.0
56. SAC (via HOU) Neemias Queta Utah St. 7-0 C 20.1
57. LAC Rayshaun Hammonds Georgia 6-9 PF 21.8
58. BKN (via DEN) Mamadi Diakite Virginia 6-9 PF/C 22.6
59. PHI Borisa Simanic Red Star 7-0 PF 21.5
60. NOP (via MIL) Markus Howard Marquette 6-0 PG 20.5
LaMelo Ball's rise into the top three
It's time to start taking LaMelo Ball seriously -- possible No. 1 pick seriously -- as an NBA draft prospect.
That was the main takeaway from a four-day trip to Tasmania, home of the NBL Blitz, the Australian and New Zealand basketball league's annual preseason tournament. This year's event drew 27 NBA scouts to check on the progress of Ball and RJ Hampton, both potential top-five selections in 2020.
Ball looked like an NBL MVP candidate. He put up an impressive 19-point, 13-rebound, 7-assist performance against the defending-champion Perth Wildcats. Reigning defensive player of the year Damian Martin tried in vain to slow Ball but was completely unable to faze the 18-year-old. Ball showed similar sparks of potential in earlier preseason contests, most notably dropping 21 points on 11 shots against South East Melbourne. He has moved up to No. 3 in the new ESPN mock draft.
The feedback from NBA scouts was nearly unanimous.
"If he keeps this up, I don't see any way he isn't in the conversation for the No. 1 overall pick," one NBA executive told ESPN. "He completely changed my perception of the type of prospect he is, and all of the background info I gathered here from his coaches and teammates paint a very different story of what I thought about him off the court as well."
"He reminds me of Luka Doncic," a scout said. "Just in terms of his size, his feel and his creativity."
NBA teams also were impressed by the way Ball controlled the game, his improved shot selection and mechanics, and his body language.
"He plays with incredible pace. He's never sped up. He's never rattled by anything that's thrown at him," the same scout said. "You're expecting something magical to happen every time he has the ball. He sees everything. He can make every pass with either hand off a live dribble. His style of play is tailor-made for the NBA game, especially if you surround him with shooting and better finishers."
Many inside and outside the Australian league thought the Illawarra Hawks, typically NBL bottom-feeders, were taking a significant risk in adding Ball to their roster via the Next Star program. There were concerns that his fame and potential intervention from Lavar, LaMelo's father, would become a distraction from winning games.
But the feedback thus far from teammates and coaches has been overwhelmingly positive, likely aided by the fact that Ball has proved to be by far the best player on the team (and possibly in the league).
"He's exceeded expectations," Illawarra head coach Matt Flinn said. "He's come with absolutely zero baggage. He's assimilated into his teammates, and they genuinely like having him around. His willingness to share the ball, his willingness to pass, that's fun to be around, and that's fun to play with. I've gotten good feedback that this is the happiest people have seen him in a while.
"I haven't heard from LaVar, so we must be doing something right [laughs]."
Ball acknowledged a need to reverse some of the negative perception NBA teams have about him, stemming from his rocky stop in Lithuania with Prienai and the off-the-court drama surrounding him and his family in recent years.
"I just need to be myself," he said. "People really don't know the whole background story. They get what they see on camera. Everybody who really just knows me, they already know."
NBA teams were curious how involved LaVar remains in LaMelo's basketball development process in the NBL. LaVar made a brief cameo in Illawarra upon his son's arrival, but he didn't request to come to practice, according to Illawarra staff members, and he has had minimal contact with the team.
Over the course of the weekend, Ball never donned apparel bearing the Big Baller Brand logo, sporting strictly Nike and Illawarra gear. Sources say he will be playing a minimal role in the "Ball in the Family" documentary moving forward. Meanwhile, Ball's camp has been negotiating a sneaker contract with different companies, though it remains to be seen what shoes he'll wear in the NBA.
Former NBA player Jermaine Jackson has taken over most of the responsibilities involved in managing LaMelo as his trainer and mentor. Jackson was a role player who clawed his way to a 130-game career over five seasons. He grew up in Detroit, where LaMelo's mother, Tina, is from, and coached Ball last season at Spire Academy. Jackson has been instrumental in bringing Ball back onto the NBA radar through tweaks to shooting mechanics, extensive film sessions, 5:45 a.m. beach workouts and more commitment to defense.
"Having JJ with me has been incredible," Ball said. "It's been a blessing."
While the early returns on Ball in the NBL look promising, the draft is still nine months away. Ball has a lot of work to do to solidify his standing with general managers. Most NBA teams elected to send lower-level international scouts to the Blitz. But multiple NBA teams told ESPN that they are adjusting their schedules based on scouting feedback and film to ensure they get decision-makers on a plane to scout Ball when the NBL regular season starts in October.
Ball's ability to improve his shot-making consistency, off-ball defense, finishing around the basket and decision-making -- while being a more vocal leader on the court at point guard -- will determine how high he ends up being drafted. His frame needs a lot of work too. The fact that he sat out his second game of the Blitz with a minor back injury caused some consternation among scouts.
Growing pains might be expected, though, as Ball has added over 3 inches in the past two years, and he might continue to get taller than 6-foot-7. He lacks a degree of high-end explosiveness creating offense from a standstill and beating opponents off the dribble, so maximizing his athleticism will be important. He's currently forced to rely on attempts with a high degree of difficulty inside the arc, not always able to get into the teeth of the defense and finish due to his lack of strength.
Overall, Ball appears to be in a perfect situation to showcase his abilities while making the adjustments needed to transition to the NBA game. It's early, but as far as preseason impressions go, it was difficult not to be blown away by the overall talent level he demonstrated, especially when you consider that he is one of the youngest players in this draft class, having turned 18 just a few weeks ago.
RJ Hampton's strong start
Fellow 18-year-old RJ Hampton seems to be settling into the pro game nicely. He had a solid but at times uneven start in his first NBL Blitz contest, posting 11 points, 4 assists and 3 rebounds in 21 minutes against championship-favored Melbourne United. His second game was far more impressive, as he exploded for 20 points, 5 rebounds, 3 steals, 2 blocks, 2 assists and 1 turnover on an efficient 7-of-13 shooting in 32 minutes.
NBA teams were mostly positive in their assessment of Hampton, whom, like Ball, they haven't had a chance to study as closely as other members of the 2019 high school class. Hampton elected to skip his senior year by reclassifying in May and wasn't part of the spring all-star circuit, in which most first impressions are made. Hampton's team is still behind the curve relative to its NBL counterparts, having had only two full practices and playing just its first preseason game because half the roster was competing in the FIBA World Cup with the New Zealand national team until recently.
Hampton has been handed the keys to the offense and put his impressive athleticism on full display with his ability to get virtually anywhere he wanted on the floor in Tasmania. He's an explosive athlete who changes speeds and directions fluidly with long strides, but he can also rise up on a dime for sharp pull-ups in the midrange. He made a handful of 3s, knocked down nine of 10 free throws and kept mistakes to a minimum, turning the ball over twice in 53 minutes.
His size (he has grown to nearly 6-foot-6 in shoes and might not be finished, according to the Breakers' medical staff), quickness and explosiveness will give him positional versatility once his body fills out. He covers an incredible amount of ground defensively, which he showed with a series of exhilarating blocks and steals in the second contest.
Hampton still has several areas in which scouts want to see him improve. He's transitioning to being a full-time point guard, having some difficulties getting his team into their offense against ball pressure and looking a little shaky with his decision-making at times. He showed poor awareness navigating screens off the ball defensively, was beaten off the dribble and lacks strength in a major way, as he was pushed around by older players.
However, the Breakers' coaching staff and teammates insist that Hampton is well ahead of schedule. They rave about how coachable he is and his level of professionalism, and Hampton expressed satisfaction thus far as well.
"RJ is great," Breakers head coach Dan Shamir said. "I thought it was going to be a process, but he is ready for this level, and I am very satisfied with him so far."
Unlike Ball, Hampton is on a far more talented roster, which means he probably won't put up eye-popping numbers, though he'll likely win more games.
"If RJ was on Illawarra, he would score 30 points every game," veteran American guard Sek Henry told ESPN. "On our team, that's not his role. We need him to do other things. You should see what he does in practice, though. His talent is through the roof."
Scouts in Tasmania think Hampton has a higher floor than Ball, as well as a significant ceiling in his own right. They want to see how much improvement he makes defensively and with his playmaking ability as the season moves on, plus what kind of consistency he can find as a shooter. Hampton has passed Theo Maledon in our mock draft, but Ball's ascension into the top three and Avdija's outstanding form this summer keep Hampton steady at No. 6 in our latest projections.
He'll have an opportunity to continue to help himself with the two NBA preseason games the Breakers will play Oct. 8 and 10 in Memphis and Oklahoma City.[/QUOTE]