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[Skooby]

What moves can and should the Nets make in the offseason?

When Sean Marks took over as general manager in February 2016, the Brooklyn Nets resembled an expansion team -- except they did not have their first-round picks for rebuilding. Yes, the Nets had made three straight playoff appearances since their 2012 arrival in Brooklyn, but there was a steep cost.

Now entering the third offseason in his tenure, Marks and his front office have slowly begun to build their assets with a combination of young players and draft picks. Still, there is work to be done.

With the Nets eliminated from the postseason, let's start our series looking ahead to the free agency, draft and trade decisions facing teams this offseason.






Find a new home for Jeremy Lin


When Lin signed a three-year, $36 million contract in 2016, the Nets seemed to have found a reliable point guard at a below-market salary. Lin was coming off a strong season in Charlotte and had been injury free for most of his career (missing only 23 games from 2013-14 to 2015-16). Things have changed.

Lin has played in only 37 games because of a left hamstring injury in 2016-17 and rupturing his right patellar tendon in the first game this season. After trading for a point guard of the future in D'Angelo Russell, plus the emergence of Spencer Dinwiddie, Lin is the odd man out.





Take a conservative approach with cap space


Unless there is a home for Lin without taking back salary, Brooklyn will be operating with a projected $11-13 million in cap space. The Nets should not be afraid to roll over cap space until the summer of 2019, when Lin and DeMarre Carroll come off the books. The Nets could have up to $25 million in cap room in 2019 if they take a conservative approach this July.

They could also be a landing spot for a team looking to dump salary, such as the Los Angeles Lakers. Even though the Luol Deng contract continues to be an albatross, history has shown that no contract is untradable if the right incentive is attached. In this case, Brooklyn would need multiple first-round picks to swing a deal.





Explore an extension for Rondae Hollis-Jefferson


The Nets should not let Hollis-Jefferson enter free agency in 2019. Yes, they will be protected by his restricted status, but Hollis-Jefferson is the type of modern forward teams look to acquire -- one who can guard up to four positions and produce on the offensive end (high-level midrange game), and he is still only 23 years old.

Because Hollis-Jefferson was picked in the early 20s, his cap hold in free agency next year is $7.4 million. One way for the Nets to structure an extension without risking significant cap space in 2019 would be to offer Hollis-Jefferson a four-year, $44 million extension with $1 million of unlikely (but achievable) bonuses and a starting salary of $10 million in 2019-20. The Nets would risk only $2.5 million in cap space and would not have to get into a bidding war next summer.





Don't risk assets to trade Mozgov


The cost of acquiring Russell was absorbing the remaining $48 million contract of Timofey Mozgov. A starter in the first 13 games, Mozgov has been relegated to coming off the bench. The development and upside of rookie Jarrett Allen has made Mozgov a rotational player at best, but one earning $16 million and $16.7 million in the next two seasons.

Trading Mozgov would come at a cost for Brooklyn. Even if the Nets explored stretching the remaining salary over the next five seasons, the $6.5 million annual cap hit combined with the money ($5.5 million) owed to Deron Williams would have the Nets with $12 million in dead money. For a team not in win-now mode, letting the remaining Mozgov contract sit on the books is not a hindrance.





Under contract in 2018-19




2018-19 salary breakdown
Player 2018-19
1. Allen Crabbe $18,500,000
2. Timofey Mozgov $16,000,000
3. DeMarre Carroll $15,400,000
4. Jeremy Lin $12,516,746
5. D'Angelo Russell $7,019,698
6. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson $2,470,357
7. Jarrett Allen $2,034,120
8. Caris LeVert $1,702,800
9. Spencer Dinwiddie (non-guaranteed) $1,656,092
10. Isaiah Whitehead (non-guaranteed) $1,544,951
11. First-rounder (Toronto) (first-round hold) $1,618,320
12. Nik Stauskas1 (free-agent hold) $11,421,441
13. Jahlil Okafor2 (free-agent hold) $6,263,272
14. Dante Cunningham3 (free-agent hold) $4,370,000
15. Quincy Acy4 (free-agent hold) $1,499,698
16. Joe Harris4 (free-agent hold) $1,499,698
Deron Williams (waiver) $5,474,787
Total $108.5 million
Salary cap $101.0 million (projected)
1. Restricted Bird rights
2. Fourth-year salary restriction
3. Non-Bird rights
4. Early Bird rights




The Nets can go in two directions this summer.

Brooklyn can keep Randy Foye's $3 million free-agent hold and act like a team over the salary cap. Doing so would leave the Nets with the $8.6 million midlevel and $3.4 million biannual exception to use. Because the $1.5 million Joe Harris free-agent hold is not removed, Brooklyn would still retain early Bird rights on the guard. The Nets also would have the 175 percent traded player exception to use in a deal and the $1.9 million trade exception created when Rashad Vaughn was sent to New Orleans.

Creating cap space would see the Nets renounce their $20 million in free-agent holds, including Harris. Along with the $4.4 million room midlevel exception (available after cap space is used), Brooklyn would have $13.1 million available. If the Nets elect to retain the Harris hold, their cap space would then be $11.6 million and Brooklyn could still exceed the cap to sign Harris once its cap space is gone.

Expect Brooklyn to take an approach like Dallas this past year -- acting as a team over the salary cap but with the option to create room if needed. For example, if Brooklyn elected to trade Lin without taking back salary, cap space would increase to $26 million and the full midlevel, biannual and trade exceptions would then be relinquished.





Dates to watch
Dec. 8 is the first date that Brooklyn can extend Dinwiddie's contract. Signed to a three-year, $3.9 million non-guaranteed contract in December 2016, the guard is eligible to sign a four-year, $45 million contract. Brooklyn can elect to extend or sign Dinwiddie as a free agent in 2019. Because Dinwiddie has a low $1.6 million free-agent hold, the Nets can use cap space first on available free agents in 2019, then sign Dinwiddie with Bird rights and go over the cap. However, this comes with a risk since Dinwiddie will be hitting unrestricted free agency.

On Oct. 31, $250,000 of his $1.6 million contract also becomes guaranteed.

If the Nets are looking to create additional cap space, they can do so by releasing Isaiah Whitehead. The 2016 second-round pick's $1.5 million contract becomes guaranteed if he is not waived by June 30. Releasing Whitehead would save only $700,000 based on the Nets being charged $831,000 in an incomplete roster charge.

Brooklyn will need to weigh whether the four-month audition of Nik Stauskas translates into a $4.3 million qualifying offer. If the Nets elect to give Stauskas a qualifying offer by June 29, the shooting guard would be a restricted free agent but Brooklyn would have the right to pull the offer by July 13 without the player's consent. Stauskas is projected to be a minimum-level free agent with a starting salary at $1.6 million.





Restrictions


When Brooklyn acquired Jahlil Okafor from Philadelphia, it did so knowing it would be restricted in offering a contract that could not exceed $6.3 million to the soon-to-be free agent. That $6.3 million matches the fourth-year option the 76ers declined on Okafor's rookie contract. Okafor, who has played sparingly since his arrival, is unlikely to return to Brooklyn. If he does, it would likely be on a minimum contract.

The Nets are not allowed to trade their 2019 first-round pick until the night of the draft.





The free-agent focus


With 10 players under contract for next season -- including the possible addition of three draft picks -- Brooklyn should focus on one of its own free agents: Joe Harris. The journeyman has had a resurgence in Brooklyn since signing a two-year minimum contract in 2016 and has proved to be a top scorer coming off the bench. Per Cleaning the Glass, Harris ranks in the 98th percentile in effective field goal percentage (59.2), the 90th percentile for 2-point percentage (56th) and the 85th percentile for 3-point percentage (40.9). Harris has certainly outplayed his current $1.5 million contract and projects to fall in the $5-6 million salary range. With a free-agent market thin among shooting guards, Harris could be the Nets' safe choice even if he gets a little expensive.

If Harris' price tag becomes too rich, Brooklyn will have a glaring need for bench scoring and would be best served by going the minimum route to preserve cap space for 2019 -- though that philosophy could change if the Nets draft a wing in the first round.

Because coach Kenny Atkinson has a tendency to go small with Carroll or Hollis-Jefferson at power forward and Brooklyn doesn't have a big man off the bench besides Mozgov, Marks will need to look at those in free agency without breaking the bank. Although an average rebounder, Montrezl Harrell fits. Like Harris, the 2015 second-round pick has found success in a different environment and can back up power forward or center. Prying Harrell from the Clippers could be a challenge because of restricted free agency.





Extension-eligible candidates


Don't look for the Nets to entertain extension discussions other than with Hollis-Jefferson, Russell and Dinwiddie.

Because Russell has a $21 million cap hold, Brooklyn can explore extension talks with an eye toward creating savings in 2019.

Besides those three players, Brooklyn has Mozgov, Allen Crabbe, Carroll, Lin and Whitehead all eligible. Other than Whitehead, the four players have 2018-19 salaries that exceed $12 million.

Carroll is also eligible to have his contract renegotiated with cap space, something that is unlikely to happen.





The draft assets


There is a light at the end of the tunnel. For the first time since 2013, the Nets will control their own first-rounder in 2019.

In the meantime, here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Brooklyn picking in the 2018 draft:

• No. 29 (via Raptors): Tyus Battle | SG/SF | Syracuse
• No. 40 (via Lakers): Jerome Robinson | PG | Boston College
• No. 45 (via Bucks): Trevon Duval | PG | Duke

Along with their own first in 2019, the Nets own the Knicks' second and possibly Indiana's too (if the pick falls between Nos. 31-44).

 

[Frump]

Keith Law's 2018 Mock Draft 1.0

 

[Alexander The Great]

They are broken up into different links. So far they have the:

Hawks, Nets, Hornets, Lakers, Heat, Grizzlies, Timberwolves, Knicks, Thunder, Suns, Kings, Spurs and Wizards.

Who do you want to see?

can post the one for the Heat please

 

[Da_Eggman]

Keith Law's 2018 Mock Draft 1.0

 

[Da_Eggman]

Remember me? Five guys on the comeback trail

 

[Da_Eggman]

What moves can and should the Pacers make this offseason?

 

[Da_Eggman]

What moves can and should the Wizards make in the offseason?

 

[Da_Eggman]

Lakers, OKC or elsewhere? Every path for Paul George now

 

[Da_Eggman]

What offseason moves can and should the Grizzlies make?

 

[Da_Eggman]

The Spurs' Kawhi options, plus more offseason moves

 

[Skooby]

Keith Law's 2018 Mock Draft 1.0

Keith Law's 2018 Mock Draft 1.0

Keith Law's 2018 Mock Draft 1.0


We're 32 days away from the 2018 Rule 4 draft, which means it's really still too early for a first-round projection, but I can't procrastinate too much longer on this. Please remember that this is not a ranking of player abilities or values (here is my most recent ranking of the players in this class), but a best guess as to which player each team might take in this scenario, based on the best information I could glean from industry sources right now.

1. Detroit Tigers: Casey Mize, RHP, Auburn. It is entirely possible the Tigers don't take Mize, cutting a deal with someone else, but at this point there's no real indication they're taking someone else. Imagine if the Tigers could trade this pick to a team in contention right now, though, given how advanced Mize is and the possibility he could work out of an MLB bullpen in September and October. 2. San Francisco Giants: Brady Singer, RHP, Florida. Singer has been very up and down this season, but so have all of the other candidates for this pick after Mize. I've also heard the Giants associated with Shane McClanahan, Joey Bart and Carter Stewart.

3. Philadelphia Phillies: Alec Bohm, 3B, Wichita State. I've heard they’re primarily interested in college bats, including Bohm and Bart -- but not Nick Madrigal.

4. Chicago White Sox: Joey Bart, C, Georgia Tech. Also hearing them mostly associated with picking college players, but as with the Phillies they're unlikely to take Madrigal given their MLB middle-infield duo.

5. Cincinnati Reds: Nick Madrigal, 2B, Oregon State. I've heard mostly college bats are in the mix for Cincinnati, since none of the prep hitters have shown well enough this spring (yet) to merit going in the top five. If someone wanted to jump on a prep arm in the top five, my guess would be the Reds pick Matthew Liberatore here.

6. New York Mets: Jonathan India, 3B, Florida. I’m also hearing they'd prefer a college player, hitter or pitcher, here, although this might be a little high for India by the standards of the rest of the industry.

7. San Diego Padres: Carter Stewart, RHP, Eau Gallie HS, Melbourne, Florida. Stewart’s curveball has the highest spin rate ever recorded and he’s been throwing up to 98 mph, but he's faltered a little in his past two starts while dealing with a wrist issue. I've also heard the Padres associated with Liberatore, and saw A.J. Preller at starts by Ethan Hankins and Ryan Weathers.

8. Atlanta Braves: Nolan Gorman, 3B, Sandra Day O'Connor HS, Peoria, Arizona. I've heard this connection a few times already. Gorman has the best raw power in the draft and Atlanta doesn't really have anyone like him in its (loaded) farm system.

9. Oakland Athletics: Travis Swaggerty, OF, South Alabama. I've heard Bart and Madrigal would stop here if they fell at all. Swaggerty was a top-five pick coming into the spring but has hit just .305 in a bad conference, albeit with high walk and power outputs (.468/.565).

10. Pittsburgh Pirates: Matthew Liberatore, LHP, Mountain Ridge HS, Peoria, Arizona. The Pirates have had a lot of success lately with prep arms in high picks and I have heard them also being in on Libby and Stewart.
2018 MLB Draft



• Keith Law's top 50 draft prospects »

11. Baltimore Orioles: Logan Gilbert, RHP, Stetson. I've heard them with college arms -- Gilbert, McClanahan, and Ryan Rolison in particular.

12. Toronto Blue Jays: Shane McClanahan, LHP, South Florida. I've heard them with the same three guys as Baltimore. McClanahan came out strong early this spring, but since the outing against UConn (allowing six earned runs after giving up no earned runs prior to that) he's been inconsistent and there are concerns he's potentially a reliever.

13. Miami Marlins: Trevor Larnach, OF, Oregon State. This would be a dramatic departure from recent Marlins drafts -- they've taken high school arms with their first picks in three of the past four years, and just one college position player in the first round since 1996. But it's a new regime, and they've been linked to Larnach by several sources.

14. Seattle Mariners: Ryan Rolison, LHP, Ole Miss. Jerry Dipoto has had five first-round picks while general manager of the Mariners or Angels, and all five selections were four-year college players, so while I wouldn't rule out high school guys here, it does seem like college first and high school second (often over slot) is the Mariners' strategy. They've also been heavy on Miami-area high school shortstop Xavier Edwards.

15. Texas Rangers: Jarred Kelenic, OF, Waukesha (Wisconsin) West HS. Kelenic went to Lakeland, Florida, to work out for the Tigers before the season, spawning rumors of a deal at 1-1 that don't appear to have any foundation. He's played only a handful of games so far due to weather, however, so he could still hit his way into the top 10; at the moment, I haven't heard him strongly anywhere above this.

16. Tampa Bay Rays: Noah Naylor, C/3B, St. Joan of Arc HS, Ontario, Canada. I've heard Naylor in consideration with only a few teams so far, none above this pick. I've also heard the Rays associated with some high school hitters, including Jordyn Adams, Connor Scott and Alek Thomas.

17. Los Angeles Angels: Ryan Weathers, LHP, Loretto (Tennessee) HS. The son of longtime big leaguer David Weathers started his spring late after leading Loretto to the state Class A basketball championship, winning tournament MVP in the process; he hit 95 mph his first start but has pitched more with average velocity since. The interest in him seems to start in the mid-teens. The Angels are one of a few teams I've heard, with Adams, too.

18. Kansas City Royals: Jordyn Adams, OF, Green Hope HS, Cary, North Carolina Adams is a two-sport guy, committed to play baseball and football at UNC, where his father is the defensive-line coach; there's strong interest in him in the late teens and a few spots in the 20s if he indicates he'll sign and give up football. I've heard the Royals all over the place, but mostly interested in prep outfielders and pitchers.

19. St. Louis Cardinals: Cole Wilcox, RHP, Heritage HS, Ringgold, Georgia. Wilcox's delivery is unorthodox, but he's one of the only pitchers, prep or college, in this draft class who has improved his standing over the course of the spring, pitching well and consistently from start to finish. He faces Kumar Rocker on Thursday afternoon in a second-round playoff game in Ringgold.

20. Minnesota Twins: Jackson Kowar, RHP, Florida. I've heard the Twins linked to every manner of player and think it's best player available, with Kowar probably fitting that description well at this point -- and it wouldn't hurt that he's a college arm who could move quickly through their system anyway.

21. Milwaukee Brewers: Ethan Hankins, RHP, Forsyth Central HS, Cumming, Georgia. Hankins was probably going in the top five before a shoulder issue ruined his coming-out party, and hasn't showed the same stuff since returning while appearing to pitch at something less than 100 percent effort as well. Sources with drafting near the end of the round felt that he wouldn't get to their pick, even with a commitment to Vanderbilt.

22. Colorado Rockies: Kumar Rocker, RHP, North Oconee HS, Bogart, Georgia. Rocker is an outstanding two-way high school player whose fastball sat in the mid-90s much of the spring, losing a little velocity after a hamstring injury cost him a few starts, but he can also show a plus curveball.

23. New York Yankees: Cole Winn, RHP, Orange Lutheran HS, Orange, California. I've heard the Yankees mostly associated with college guys and a few premium high school athletes, but Winn is the only high school arm I've heard here, perhaps because he'd fit with longtime scouting director Damon Oppenheimer's affinity for polished prep arms from Southern California.

24. Chicago Cubs: Grayson Rodriguez, RHP, Central Heights HS, Nacogdoches, Texas. The Cubs seem likely to go for upside with this pick, with a young and relatively full major league roster but lacking potential stars in the system; Rodriguez has some of the best pure stuff in the draft class and is one of the very few pitchers you might project as a potential No. 2 starter or better.

25. Arizona Diamondbacks: Matt McLain, SS, Beckman HS, Tustin, California. The D-backs have been all over McLain this spring, with GM Mike Hazen going to see him at least twice. They could also be targeting him for their competitive-balance pick at No. 39.

26. Boston Red Sox: Brice Turang, SS, Santiago HS, Corona, California. Turang is a premium defensive shortstop with power but a questionable hit tool; a team taking him in the first round is likely hoping to work with his swing to get that power to play more in games. I think Boston will go for some upside with this pick, depending on who falls this far, but is unlikely to take a prep pitcher.

27. Washington Nationals: J.T. Ginn, RHP, Brandon (Mississippi) HS. I could also see the Nats taking Hankins or Turang if either falls here.

28. Houston Astros: Kris Bubic, LHP, Stanford. Bubic has surpassed teammate Tristan Beck, who missed all of last year with a back injury, with a better performance this spring, and worked himself into potential late first-round consideration along with other college arms like Kentucky's Sean Hjelle and Mississippi State's Konnor Pilkington.

29. Cleveland Indians: Connor Scott, OF, Plant HS, Tampa, Florida. I've heard Cleveland with a mess of high school players, including Scott and Thomas, who by the way...

30. Los Angeles Dodgers: Alek Thomas, OF, Mount Carmel (Illinois) HS. ... is also in the Dodgers' mix, as is Scott. I've also heard Stanford shortstop Nico Hoerner here; he or Missouri State shortstop Jeremy Eierman could slip into the back of the first round.

 

[Skooby]

can post the one for the Heat please

What moves can and should the Heat make in the offseason?



The Heat are trying to debunk the theory that the only way to build a roster is with clear-cut All-Stars.

Unlike the two championship teams in 2012 and 2013, this Miami roster was constructed with depth but without major star appeal (sorry, Goran Dragic). Year 2 of this model led to a playoff spot and first-round exit.

With the Heat now eliminated from the postseason, let's look ahead to the free-agency, draft and trade decisions facing Miami this offseason.

More summer focus: Click here for every team so far






The cost of being a playoff team
The Heat made a calculated risk last summer.

By bringing back the nucleus (plus Kelly Olynyk) of a team that finished 41-41 but out of the playoffs, they made a financial investment in stability. While other teams (Atlanta and Chicago) decided that just making the playoffs was not good enough and chose lottery combinations, Miami picked the opposite.

The goal? Stay competitive in a wide-open Eastern Conference. The reward turned into 44 wins and a first-round loss to Philadelphia.

Now entering the offseason, Miami faces a financial burden and roster restrictions.

Despite returning 11 players on a team that totaled $103 million in salary (ranking 20th), Miami will start free agency right below the $123 million tax threshold. The $16 million difference results from the Nets' offer sheet to Tyler Johnson that makes the current contract increase from $5.8 to $19.2 million next year.

Although the Heat decided not to tank, the reality is that Miami is married to its current roster for the next two seasons (2018-19 and 2019-20).

How this team improves will come down to four things (plus health and barring trades):

1. The familiarity of 80 percent of the roster returning
2. The role of Hassan Whiteside
3. The play of Justise Winslow in the playoffs translating to the regular season
4. Dion Waiters recovering from his ankle injury, with Wayne Ellington likely not returning

The future of Whiteside


The tenure of Hassan Whiteside in Miami could compare to somebody who goes from renting to buying the house he or she has been living in.

The $1.7 million rental of Whiteside and two-year tryout period in 2014-15 and 2015-16 turned into a $98 million investment in 2016. Now Miami faces the financial risk of a player who can be dominant on the court but at times resorts back to the same immature player who was out of the league in 2014.

The first-round loss to Philadelphia could be best described as a microcosm for the center this season. Often disengaged, Whiteside totaled 16 points and 18 rebounds in four games compared to 13 points and 13 rebounds in a Game 4 loss.

Now entering the third year of his contract and owed $25 and $27 million the next two seasons, Whiteside's production and role moving forward will determine if Miami is more than just a middle of the pack Eastern Conference team.

If Whiteside's play remains inconsistent, Miami will have an expensive problem.





Creating flexibility for Ellington


Wayne Ellington will likely see a comparable starting salary in free agency as he did this year. The difference is that the $6.3 million per year bargain could be in a different uniform.

While the Heat have early Bird rights and can pay the guard up to 105 percent of the average player salary (a projected $8.6 million), Ellington will likely be a casualty of the $35 million still owed to reserve guard Dion Waiters with the Heat pressed up against the luxury tax.

If the Heat do not make roster moves to create financial flexibility and bring back Ellington at a salary of $6 million, the signing would cost Miami $16 million in salary and taxes.

Essentially, Ellington would be an expensive luxury to have coming off the bench.





Summer cap breakdown


2018-19 salary breakdown
Player 2018-19
1. Hassan Whiteside $25,434,262
2. Tyler Johnson $19,245,370
3. Goran Dragic $18,109,175
4. James Johnson $14,651,700
5. Kelly Olynyk $12,537,527
6. Dion Waiters $11,550,000
7. Josh Richardson $9,367,200
8. Justise Winslow $3,448,926
9. Bam Adebayo $2,955,840
10. Jordan Mickey (team option) $1,600,520
11. Rodney McGruder (non-guaranteed) $1,544,951
12. Wayne Ellington 1 (free-agent hold) $8,151,000
13. Udonis Haslem 2 (free-agent hold) $1,499,698
14. Dwyane Wade 3 (free-agent hold) $1,499,698
15. Luke Babbitt 3 (free-agent hold) $1,499,698
AJ Hammons (waiver) $350,087
Total $136.1 million
Luxury tax line $123.0 million (projected)
1. Early Bird rights
2. Bird rights
3. Non-Bird rights


After spending the past two offseasons chasing Kevin Durant and Gordon Hayward, Miami will not be an active participant when it comes to the likes of LeBron James and Paul George.

The free-agent spending of last summer and the increase in the Tyler Johnson contract have the Heat with nine players comprising $118 million in guaranteed contracts, $5 million below the luxury tax.

Besides early Bird rights on Ellington, Miami likely will have only the $5.4 million tax mid-level exception to use.





Dates to watch


Despite the financial crunch of salaries, not bringing back Jordan Mickey or Rodney McGruder would be more about creating a roster spot.

Miami has until June 29 to decide on the $1.6 million Mickey team option and June 30 for the $1.5 million non-guaranteed McGruder salary.

A replacement if either is waived would cost $1.5 million.





Restrictions
Because of the draft compensation sent to Phoenix from the Goran Dragic trade, Miami will be restricted on sending future first-round picks in trades.

Starting the night of the draft (after the Suns select), Miami can trade its own first in 2019 but only if it is unprotected. In addition, the Heat can trade a first starting in 2023 (two years after the Phoenix pick is conveyed) but are limited on adding protection because of the seven-year rule. In this case, Miami can only trade a first from 2019 to 2025, not in consecutive seasons, and protection would not be allowed to carry past the 2025 draft.

Tyler Johnson's $19.2 million salary is not the only obstacle the Heat will have if they attempt to trade the guard. Johnson has a 15 percent trade bonus in his contract valued at $2.9 million. The bonus would be added to his 2018-19 salary if he were traded after July 1.

In addition to having incentive compensation for minutes played, Kelly Olynyk has a 5 percent trade bonus. The bonus is $1.1 million and would be divided and added to his 2018-19 and 2019-20 salaries.





The free-agent focus


There are positives with the roster restrictions in Miami. A deep team returns, with 12 players under contract and not many holes to fill.

Despite the likelihood of losing Ellington, the Heat have a $35 million insurance policy in Waiters and can bring Dwyane Wade back on a $2.3 million minimum contract.





Extension-eligible candidates


The Heat can either take a patient approach with Winslow and get their finances in order for 2019-20 or invest in the forward now on a team-friendly contract like Josh Richardson (four years, $42 million) signed this past September.

The Heat will have $117 million in committed salary in 2019-20, but they get a reprieve, as the luxury tax line is expected to increase from $123 to $131 million.

Winslow, after missing most of his sophomore season and playing inconsistently in the first half of this season, found an identity coming off the bench. Exploring extension talks with a discount would save the Heat in tax penalties in 2019-20.

Besides deciding what to do with Winslow, Miami has four players -- Hassan Whiteside, Tyler Johnson, Goran Dragic and Rodney McGruder -- who are extension-eligible.





The draft assets


Miami will likely not have a seat at the table when it comes the draft in June. The Heat will send their first-round pick this year to the Suns and will send Phoenix an unprotected first in 2021.

As a result, Miami will not have a first in June or a second, as it was traded to Houston (via Charlotte) in 2016 to create tax savings. Miami also does not have its own second in 2019 (to Minnesota), 2020 (to Sacramento) or 2023 (to Dallas).

Buying into the draft for Miami will not be easy. Because $5.1 million was sent along with Josh McRoberts to Dallas las July, the Heat can agree to buy a second-round pick the night of the draft but not complete the trade until July 6, once the new calendar year begins.

 

[Skooby]

Remember me? Five guys on the comeback trail

Remember me? Five guys on the comeback trail

Especially in April and May, much of baseball fandom comes down to recognizing and appreciating what's shiny and new. We're forever on the hunt for the best new rookies or the most improved young players. Shohei Ohtani is already one of the most compelling players to appear in the majors in decades. There's a national conversation about how good Didi Gregorius actually is. The Braves are more exciting than they've been in a while because of an improving Ozzie Albies and an emerging Ronald Acuna Jr.

Fans are wired to think in terms of player ceilings. Every young player is trying to be as good as he possibly can, and we all closely monitor his progress. In some ways we're addicted to the concept of players on the upswing. There's less interest in players who appear to be post-ceiling. And there's less interest in players who can't get to their ceiling. Fans are inclined to believe in everyone, until they've simply had enough. Then it's just a matter of replacing disappointing players with new ones with potential.

In general, that's sensible enough. When a player's career looks as if it has already had its best days, all that's really left is decline. But it's not only the youngest players who can improve. Sometimes veteran players pick themselves up off the mat. Maybe it's less exciting than improvement from some 24-year-old, but it might be more inspiring. And these cases can be excellent reminders that baseball careers don't always follow a normal trajectory.

With that in mind, let's identify five players who appear to be resurrecting their careers. These are players from whom little was expected. This isn't like Mookie Betts' power outbreak; it's one thing to be good when you're supposed to be. It's quite another to be good when most people around you have lost that faith. These five players look relevant again, and if I got to include a sixth, I would've given a shout to Jordan Zimmermann.

Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers: I thought they were lying. I can't express how strongly I thought the Dodgers were lying back in the spring when they said Kemp was going to make the roster. I thought it was one last desperate attempt to gin up some league-wide interest in another partial salary dump. That's what Kemp had become by this juncture in his career -- a salary dump. I didn't think the Dodgers actually wanted to use him.

And, you know, maybe they didn't want to. But Kemp made the team, and Kemp has played. He showed up to camp in far better condition, and he has performed like a younger version of himself. I'm not wowed so much by the fact that Kemp has hit. Even last season, Kemp hit well at the start. But according to Statcast, the 2018 version of Kemp is running faster than he did and playing better defense than he had in recent years. Kemp was a five-tool player in his prime, but he slowed down considerably as weight and injuries mounted. To this point he has been able to turn back the clock. This is one thing that has gone right in a Dodgers season that otherwise has gone so terribly wrong.

Tyson Ross, San Diego Padres: At 31, Ross isn't that old. He's two years removed from being considered a borderline ace. There was a stretch there where I felt as if I read a new trade rumor connecting Ross to the Cubs every week. But then Ross started a game in 2016 and didn't start another. He needed surgery after being diagnosed with thoracic outlet syndrome. Ross returned to the majors a season ago with the Rangers, but the results were awful. Ross walked more batters than he struck out. This past offseason he signed with the Padres on a minor league contract.

And, recently, Ross carried a no-hitter against the Diamondbacks into the bottom of the eighth. He is back to striking out a batter per inning. Opponents have made a below-average rate of contact when they've swung, and a Padres person recently told me that Ross basically has his lethal slider back, after it took a couple of years off. The slider is what made Ross, and while thoracic outlet syndrome is a pretty unusual problem with a small number of baseball cases, it's not clear that Ross has to be babied. He might well be almost all the way back. The Padres' rotation has needed the help.

Jason Heyward, Chicago Cubs: One thing I understand about Heyward is that his 2018 numbers aren't spectacular. There's no sense in pretending they are. He has been about an average hitter, which, granted, is still a step up from what Heyward was in 2016 and 2017.

But here, Statcast can come in extra handy. By average exit velocity off the bat, Heyward this year has hit the ball as hard as he did back in 2015. And there's a metric out there called expected slugging percentage, which calculates an SLG estimate based on someone's actual batted balls. Heyward in 2016: .348. Heyward in 2017: .392. Heyward in 2018: .515. The strong conclusion here is that Heyward has been hitting the ball just fine in the early going, but he has simply hit into some bad luck. It happens. His hard-hit rate is up. And, for that matter, Heyward has been hitting more balls in the air. It doesn't help him much to put the ball on the ground.

Even when Heyward was struggling, he put the bat on the ball. He drew his walks. His discipline wasn't a problem. It was his swing that might have been overcomplicated. The early results now are very encouraging. Heyward has the results of an average hitter. But he now has the profile of someone even better than that.

Leonys Martin, Detroit Tigers: Martin signed with the Tigers this past offseason for $1.75 million. It wasn't very much, but then, a year ago, Martin was designated for assignment on more than one occasion. He batted .172 with three home runs. Martin might have gone to the one place where he could find a regular major league job. He could play with the Tigers, because the Tigers are bad. It's still better than Triple-A.

As I write this, Martin is slugging .479, while also providing the Tigers with an adequate defensive center fielder. There's not that much mystery here: Martin has just decided to overhaul his own offensive approach. Over his career, roughly half of his batted balls have been grounders. This season, that rate is more like a quarter. Martin has changed his swing to hit the ball up, and although this is something he flirted with during his time with the Mariners, it didn't stick. Martin found himself caught in between. Now he is rededicated and enjoying a great amount of success on a roster that needs it. Martin already has more hits and home runs than he had last season. He has never before slugged higher than .385. Just as it seemed as if Martin was finished, he has surged right back into relevance.

Jurickson Profar, Texas Rangers: This is a bit of a different case, because Profar is still -- still -- only 25 years old. He's not a classic post-peak player. He's actually younger than Bryce Harper and Javier Baez. Before the 2013 season, Baseball America tabbed Profar as the game's No. 1 prospect. You might think of him as still a prospect today.

But that's not what the industry has thought. Even in 2017, it didn't seem as if Profar was even necessarily in the Rangers' plans. Maybe it was injuries that led to underperformance, but the combination of both tanked Profar's perceived value. Entering 2018, it felt as if Profar was about out of chances. Baseball can't wait for any one man.

Now, a month and change into the season, Profar has nearly as many walks as strikeouts. His ground-ball rate is the lowest it has ever been, and just last week Profar hit a home run at 112 mph off the bat, which is a level he hadn't reached. Profar is suddenly hitting fly balls with some authority, and even the weaker version of Profar made contact and swung at strikes. This is somewhat reminiscent of what has happened with Jason Heyward, except that at least Heyward had been a good hitter before. For Profar, this is new. And it has put him right back on the major league radar.

 

[Skooby]

What moves can and should the Pacers make this offseason?

What moves can and should the Pacers make this offseason?




Should the Indiana Pacers sign Myles Turner to a new deal? Will they keep their surprise roster together?

Now eliminated from the postseason, let's look ahead to the free agency, draft and trade decisions facing Indiana this offseason.

More summer focus: Click here for every team so far






Managing expectations


This season, no team in the NBA outperformed expectations more than Indiana.

Predicted to win 30 games and finish with the seventh-worst record in the NBA, the Pacers were expected to focus on rebuilding and using the lottery to get back to being a playoff team. After all, how does a team recover after trading its best player in the offseason in Paul George?


Now 10 months removed from the George trade, the rebuild in Indiana turned into 48 wins and a team that fell one game short of advancing to the next round. The 2017-18 version of the Pacers turned out to be a better overall team with a brighter future after the deal.

Fair or unfair, the focus will now turn to how Indiana can duplicate the success from this past season and take the next step. Despite the high expectations, the eighth-youngest team in the NBA likely returns 13 players from this season, with the loss to Cleveland serving as motivation.





The costs of creating cap space


The known is better than the unknown. That is the thinking in Indiana when it comes to two possible directions for the team this offseason.

The Pacers can return the same roster that won 48 games or go into free agency with $31 million in cap space. Creating cap space would come at a significant cost to the roster. Gone would be starters Darren Collison, Bojan Bogdanovic, key reserve Lance Stephensonand veteran Al Jefferson.

The same success that GM Kevin Pritchard found last July will likely not be found this offseason, especially in a diluted free-agent market.

Also, all four players would have to be waived by July 1, meaning Indiana would enter free agency searching for replacements without a commitment in hand from a free agent.

While there is an appeal with cap space, keep in mind that each player is entering the last year of his contract and has value not only on the court but in a possible trade because of an expiring deal.





Keep an eye on 2019


There is no better free-agent pitch than the playoffs. In Indiana, the recruitment of free agents will likely have to wait until the summer of 2019 -- especially if the decision is to bring back the same roster from 2017-18.

Despite the one-year wait, Indiana has positioned itself for the future. The Pacers can sell a strong core of Victor Oladipo, Domantas Sabonis, Myles Turner (restricted free agent), two first-round picks (2018 and 2019) and a projected $60 million in cap space.

Even with the potential of a double max slot available, don't expect the Pacers' front office to sit idly during the 2018-19 season. Indiana will have an advantage with eight players on expiring contracts, bringing the ability to take back future salary but on a player who can help now and in the future.







Summer cap breakdown




2018-19 salary breakdown
Player 2018-19
1. Victor Oladipo $21,000,000
2. Thaddeus Young (player option) $13,964,045
3. Cory Joseph $7,945,000
4. Myles Turner $3,410,284
5. Domantas Sabonis $2,659,800
6. TJ Leaf $2,407,560
7. Bojan Bogdanovic (partial protection) $10,500,000
8. Darren Collison (partial protection) $10,000,000
9. Al Jefferson (partial protection) $10,000,000
10. Ike Anigbogu (partial protection) $1,378,242
11. Alex Poythress (non-guaranteed) $1,378,242
12. Lance Stephenson (team option) $4,360,000
13. Joseph Young (team option) $1,600,520
14. First-rounder (first-round hold) $1,895,520
15. Glenn Robinson 1 (free-agent hold) $1,499,698
16. Trevor Booker 2 (free-agent hold) $1,499,698
Monta Ellis (waiver) $2,245,400
Total $99.0 million
Salary cap $101.0 million (projected)
1. Bird rights
2. Non-Bird rights


Cap space this summer in Indiana is fluid based on the player option of Thaddeus Young and the decision to retain or waive the players on partial or non-guaranteed contracts, including Collison and Bogdanovic.

If Indiana takes a conservative approach and Young and Joseph opt into their contracts, the Pacers will likely be right at the salary cap with the $8.6 million midlevel and $3.4 million biannual exception to use. With shooting off the bench a priority, Indiana could target a player such as free agent Wayne Ellington with the full midlevel.

If Jefferson and Young are waived, cap room would stand at $13.8 million. In this case, Indiana would have the $4.4 million room exception in addition to cap space.

One area to watch is the available roster spots. Including their two draft picks, the Pacers could have 15 players under contract (the league limit) before free agency even starts.





Dates to watch


The month of June will dictate how the Pacers shape their roster for next season.

Indiana has a league-high eight players on the roster who either have a player option or team option with a guaranteed contract date.

Here is a breakdown of the players and dates to watch:

Joe Young

The former second-round pick has a June 24 team option. Exercising the option would guarantee Young $1.6 million for next year. The decision for Indiana will likely come down to the need for an extra roster spot.

Lance Stephenson

Expect the Pacers to exercise the option on Stephenson's $4.4 million contract. There is a June 29 deadline to do so.

Thaddeus Young

Despite another year of consistency, the starting salary for Young if he opted out would fall short of his $13.9 million salary for next season. Young will need to weigh whether the future financial security of a long-term contract at a lower salary outweighs taking a salary discount for 2018-19. Expect Young to opt into his contract for next year.

Bojan Bogdanovic

Even before his heroics in a Game 3 win vs. Cleveland, Bogdanovic was likely going to see his $10.5 million contract for next season become fully guaranteed. A starter in 80 games, Bogdanovic has $1.5 million guaranteed with the remainder becoming fully guaranteed if not waived by June 29.

Darren Collison

Like Bogdanovic, expect Collison's $10 million contract to become guaranteed by July 1. The point guard has $2 million guaranteed if the Pacers do waive him (unlikely).

Al Jefferson

The veteran presents an interesting decision for Indiana. Already with $4 million guaranteed, he played a career low in minutes this season. Despite his limited role, the center continues to provide invaluable mentorship to Myles Turner and he's a veteran locker room presence. The remaining $6 million becomes guaranteed if not waived by July 2.

Ike Anigbogu

Last year's second-round pick has $690,000 of his $1.4 million contract guaranteed for next season. Expect Anigbogu to be on the roster past June 15, the date his contract becomes fully guaranteed.

Alex Poythress

Expect the Las Vegas Summer League to be a tryout for the forward. With a strong performance, Poythress could see his $1.4 million contract become guaranteed for next year. Indiana will have until July to decide.





Extension-eligible candidates


Despite a foul-plagued Game 7 vs. Cleveland, there is a lot to like about Turner. Still only 22, Turner has turned into a foundation piece but is still in the development stage of his career.

Now that Turner is extension-eligible, Indiana will have to decide to either take advantage of his low $10.2 million free-agent cap hold for 2019 or sign the center to an extension before Oct. 15.

A new deal would likely have Turner under contract for four years starting in 2019-20 but see Indiana lose cap savings.

Besides Turner, Thaddeus Young, Joseph, Jefferson and Joe Young are also extension-eligible.

Joseph is eligible for a four-year, $46 million extension starting in 2019-20.





The draft assets


Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Indiana picking in the 2018 draft:

• No. 23 (own): Khyri Thomas | SG | Creighton
• No. 53 (own): Jarrey Foster | SG | SMU

The Pacers own all their future first-round selections.

 

[Skooby]

What moves can and should the Wizards make in the offseason?

What moves can and should the Wizards make in the offseason?

The Washington Wizards are trending south.

One year removed from winning 49 games and losing in the Eastern Conference semifinals to the Boston Celtics in seven games, the Wizards saw a decrease in wins (43) and suffered a first-round exit to the Toronto Raptors.

With the Wizards now eliminated from the postseason, let's look ahead to the free agency, draft and trade decisions facing Washington this offseason.

More summer focus: Click here for every team so far






The cost associated with the product
When the Wizards' front office does a rewind of the season, they will see a team that underachieved despite having the fifth-highest payroll in the league and paying the luxury tax for the first time in franchise history.

The good news is the three players who combine to earn $70 million next season -- John Wall (27 years old), Bradley Beal (24) and Otto Porter Jr. (24) -- are beginning or in the prime of their careers. Wall and Beal comprise one of the best backcourts in the NBA, and Porter complements both.

However, after playing five seasons together, the team has failed out to get past the Eastern Conference semifinals and appears to have stagnated.

Is that result a product of a lack of on-court chemistry between the three? The inability to construct a roster of role players? Or injuries, most noticeably the 41 games Wall missed this season because of a left knee injury?

While one can pick apart the relationship between Wall and Beal, the reality is both players are married to one another through at least the 2020-21 season. The Wall contract is basically untradeable based on the $37.6 million average salary and the questions about a possible recurrence with his knee. That should be a concern for prospective teams, especially since he is a year away from his super-max extension kicking in.

Beal came in at No. 8 in ESPN's top 25 NBA players under age 25 and has missed only five games over the previous two seasons after durability concerns consumed his first three seasons. The remaining $80 million on his contract is justified given the on-court results.

Which leads us to Porter. After matching the $107 million offer sheet from the Brooklyn Nets last summer, Porter is eligible to be traded in July. Could Washington's front office treat the small forward as a trade asset to balance the roster?

The answer will likely come if there is confidence (and trust) that reserve Kelly Oubre Jr. can be the starter at small forward. Oubre Jr. is eligible for extension and has seen his role increase since his rookie season. However, the small forward at times has displayed the immaturity that concerned teams when he was coming out of Kansas.





The expiring contracts
There is an exercise teams go through when it comes to turning over the roster with little flexibility known as free agency in a trade.

A team will take players on an expiring contract -- in this case, likely starting big men Marcin Gortat and Markieff Morris -- and trade them for players with longer guaranteed contracts. The thinking is that because both players are set to become free agents in 2019, Washington could find their replacements through a trade since they will not have the flexibility to sign their replacements in free agency.

Where teams find themselves in trouble is the cost associated.

Washington already has $111 million guaranteed in 2019-20 with just six players under contract. Remember, that is before a possible new Oubre Jr. contract. Adding salary to the cost already committed would likely put the Wizards in the luxury tax for a third consecutive season, which is something the front office will have a hard time selling to ownership.

The question that ownership will ask is: Can we stay under the tax and find their replacements in the draft while remaining competitive?

If the answer is yes, which it should be, Washington will do its 2019 free-agent shopping in the draft and not in a trade.





Salary-cap breakdown


2018-19 salary breakdown
Player 2018-19
1. Otto Porter $26,011,913
2. Bradley Beal $25,434,263
3. John Wall $19,169,800
4. Ian Mahinmi $15,944,154
5. Marcin Gortat $13,565,218
6. Markieff Morris $8,600,000
7. Jason Smith (player option) $5,450,000
8. Jodie Meeks (player option) $3,454,500
9. Tomas Satoransky $3,129,187
10. Kelly Oubre $3,208,630
11. First-rounder (first-round hold) $1,974,480
12. Tim Frazier 1 (free-agent hold) $3,800,000
13. Chris McCullough 2 (free-agent hold) $2,243,326
14. Ramon Sessions 3 (free-agent hold) $1,499,698
15. Ty Lawson 3 (free-agent hold) $1,499,698
16. Mike Scott 3 (free-agent hold) $1,499,698
Martell Webster (waiver) $833,333
Total $138.0 million
Luxury tax $123.0 million (projected)
1. Early Bird rights
2. Fourth-year restriction
3. Non-Bird rights


The Wizards front office has work to do this offseason.

Faced with a second consecutive season of being in the luxury tax in 2018-19, this time at a higher cost, Washington will have to be creative with little flexibility to improve upon its roster.

When free agency begins, Washington, barring a draft-night trade, has $127 million in guaranteed salary, which is $4 million above the tax threshold ($123 million).

The projected $6 million tax penalty projects to jump to $14.5 million if minimum-salary free agents are signed to the remaining three roster spots. Using the full tax midlevel exception would cost Washington an additional $9 million in penalties.

Washington will get tax relief when Jodie Meeks serves the remainder of his suspension. The projected tax credit will save the Wizards $500,000.

Also keep in mind the John Wall super-max extension signed last summer does not kick in until 2019-20.

The Wizards project to be over the salary cap in 2019-20 and 2020-21.





Dates to watch
Expect June 29 to pass without Jason Smith and Jodie Meeks opting out of their contracts for next season. When both return, Smith will cost the Wizards' cap $5.4 million and Meeks will cost them $3.5 million.





Restrictions
The two high-priced signings last summer, Wall and Porter, will have their trade restrictions lifted. Based on signing a super-max extension, Wall will have his trade restriction removed on July 26. Porter, signed to an offer sheet by Brooklyn that was eventually matched by Washington, is eligible to be traded on July 8.

Both players also have a 15 percent trade bonus in their contract. The Wall bonus is valued at $21.2 million and is the largest active bonus in the NBA. However, because the bonus would exceed the maximum allowed in the first year of his extension (2019-20), it will be reduced to a projected $5 million. The pro-rated bonus would be added to his $19 million salary for next season if he were to be traded. The bonus for Porter would be voided because it would exceed the maximum salary allowed in 2018-19.



The free-agent focus
A career year from reserve Mike Scott is likely going to cost Washington arguably its top reserve.

Scott, signed to the minimum exception last season, has non-Bird rights, and Washington will likely have to use part or all of its $5.4 million tax midlevel exception to bring him back.

The 19 games remaining from Meeks' 25-game suspension leaves the Wizards with a void coming off the bench for the first quarter of the year. Washington does get roster relief to carry a 16th player (if it keeps 15) until Meeks does return, but it comes at a per day luxury-tax penalty.

Because Washington has the minimum exception, both backup shooting guard and power forward will likely be addressed in the draft and not in free agency.





Extension-eligible candidates
Besides Oubre Jr., almost half the roster in Washington is extension eligible.

Out of the five eligible players -- Ian Mahinmi, Marcin Gortat, Markieff Morris, Tomas Satoransky and Jason Smith -- Satoransky would be the only player who would merit a conversation.





The draft assets
Trades to acquire Markieff Morris and Bojan Bogdanovic in previous seasons depleted the Wizards' first-round picks over the past two drafts. But after standing pat at the 2018 trade deadline, Washington will select in the first round for the first time since drafting Oubre Jr. in 2015.

Here's how ESPN's Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz have Washington picking in the 2018 draft:

No. 15 (own): Kevin Knox | SF | Kentucky

No. 44 (own): Tony Carr | PG | Penn St.

The Wizards in the future have all their own first-round picks.