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Skooby

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storyteller said:
Can we get Mike Clay's touchdown projection sheet?
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Expect more touchdowns from these players in 2017, including Greg Olsen

This is going to be a mouthful, but bear with me for a minute.

From 2007 to 2015, there were 180 instances in which a wide receiver or tight end scored fewer than five touchdowns on 70-plus offensive looks (carries plus targets) before managing at least 70 looks the next season. Of those 180 instances, 125 times (69.4 percent) the player scored more touchdowns the next season. Focusing in on the 64 players in that group who scored fewer than three touchdowns during the first season, 56 of them (87.5 percent) scored more touchdowns the next season. Of the 23 who scored either one or zero touchdowns, 22 of them (95.7 percent) found the end zone more often the next season. Jason Avant (2011-12) was the only exception.

We see similar results if we run this test on running backs. In that same 2007-15 window, there were 50 instances in which a back scored fewer than eight touchdowns on 200-plus looks before managing 200 looks again the next season. Of those 50 instances, 37 times (74 percent) the player scored more touchdowns the next season. Interestingly, there were seven backs who scored fewer than three touchdowns in the first year but each scored more often the next year. Of that group, only Darren McFadden (2014-15) failed to score at least five touchdowns the next season, and the average second-year touchdown total was 7.2.

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If you skipped all that, or just tuned out while scanning over the letters and numbers, the point here is simple: NFL players tend to bounce back -- often in a big way -- when they post an unusually low touchdown number the prior season.

A careful examination of the 2016 usage for each of the players below tells us that we should expect an increase in scoring production this season.

In this piece, I'll be referencing OTD, which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it's how many touchdowns a league-average player would have scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.

Be sure to also check out the 16 players who will score fewer touchdowns this season.

Note that this study is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.


Greg Olsen | Carolina Panthers


2016 TDs: 3 | OTD: 6.6

Olsen entered 2016 having managed at least five touchdowns during each of the previous eight seasons. Despite racking up a career-high 127 targets, Olsen found the end zone only three times. He registered 10 end zone targets (fourth most among tight ends) for the fourth time in his career, which includes three of the past four years. Olsen caught two of those 10 targets and ran 42 yards on his other score. Olsen's résumé and last year's usage suggest the low touchdown total was a fluke. Expect him to rebound in 2017.

2017 Projection: 6



Spencer Ware | Kansas City Chiefs


2016 TDs: 5 | OTD: 7.5

Ware found the end zone on only three of his 214 rushing attempts last season. That's after he scored on six of 72 carries in 2015. Ware ranked 16th in the league with nine carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line, but scored on only two. He scored on five of seven tries in the same area in 2015. Ware did bail out his owners a bit by catching a pair of touchdowns (1.2 receiving OTD). He scored from 3 and 48 yards out despite only two targets while inside the opponent's 17-yard line. Nonetheless, Ware was unlucky overall in the touchdown department and his scoring rate is likely to rebound in 2017. Of course, his overall production will depend on whether or not he's able to fend off rookie Kareem Hunt for touches.

2017 Projection: 8

Marvin Jones | Detroit Lions
2016 TDs: 4 | OTD: 7.0



Remember back in 2013 when Jones defied logic and scored on 10 of his 51 receptions? He had a 4.7 OTD that season and was about as obvious a lock for touchdown regression as you'll find. Labeled by many as having a "knack" for finding the end zone, he proved to be yet another example that touchdown scoring is not a skill, but rather a luxury of opportunity. Of course, Jones has taken the regression to the mean a bit too far. He's scored exactly four touchdowns each of the past two seasons despite a 5.5 OTD in 2015 and a 7.0 OTD last season. Since catching all nine of his end zone targets during that bizarre 2013 season, Jones has caught just three of 18 during his past two campaigns. That includes two of 10 in 2016, his first season with Detroit. Jones' usage suggests he's a candidate for a bounce back in 2017, just don't expect a return to 2013.

2017 Projection: 6


Todd Gurley | Los Angeles Rams


2016 TDs: 6 | OTD: 7.6

Gurley was a major disappointment last season, and his 3.2 yards per carry was only the beginning of it. Despite registering the fifth-most carries (278) and 12th-most targets (57) among running backs, Gurley found the end zone only six times and finished 15th in fantasy points. Gurley scored 10 touchdowns despite a 6.3 OTD as a rookie, which made him a candidate for regression to the mean, but he clearly overshot it by a bit. Last season, he scored on four of six carries from the opponent's 1-yard line, and his other touchdowns came from 3 and 24 yards out. With little competition for snaps, Gurley is well positioned for another massive workload in 2017. Expect the touchdowns to follow his hefty volume.

2017 Projection: 10


Alshon Jeffery | Philadelphia Eagles


2016 TDs: 2 | OTD: 5.1

This is the second consecutive year in which Jeffery has found himself on this list. The former Bear has scored six touchdowns despite a 12.0 OTD over the past two seasons. He's actually fallen short of his OTD during each of his first five seasons in the league, though the gap between his 2012-14 touchdown total (20) and OTD (22.9) is much closer. Jeffery has proven to be heavily utilized near the goal line. He's reached double-digits in end zone targets each of the past four seasons. That includes 2015, when he ranked seventh at the position with 16 despite missing seven games. During the 2013-14 seasons, only Brandon Marshall (43) and Calvin Johnson (38) managed more end zone targets than Jeffery's 37. Jeffery now heads to Philadelphia, where he figures to act as Carson Wentz's go-to target near the end zone. His touchdown underperformance (as it relates to OTD) may seem like a trend, but it just as well could be traced to bad luck (a coin that comes up heads five consecutive times still has 50-50 odds of turning up tails on the next flip after all).

2017 Projection: 6



Brandon Marshall | New York Giants


2016 TDs: 3 | OTD: 6.8

Marshall has been such a force in the touchdown department during his career that it's almost hard to believe he made this list. Marshall ranked seventh among wide receivers with 15 end zone targets last season (he caught just three), which marks his second-worst finish in the category in the past 10 years. In fact, Marshall has paced the position in end zone targets four of the past six years and he's seen an NFL-high 180 since 2007. Now with the Giants, it's fair to assume Eli Manning will be the next in a long line of quarterbacks to feed Marshall near the goal line.

2017 Projection: 6



Jermaine Kearse | Seattle Seahawks
2016 TDs: 1 | OTD: 5.4



Kearse has the distinction of owning the largest gap between his touchdown total and receiving OTD during the 2016 season. He racked up seven end zone targets for the third season in a row and finished top 40 among wideouts in the category each of those seasons. He caught only one of the seven end zone looks last season, but was targeted 10 additional times while inside the opponent's 10-yard line. Kearse is a good bet for a reduced role with surging Paul Richardson and rookie Amara Darboh now in the mix, but the veteran is still likely to receive in the range of 35-45 targets.

2017 Projection: 3



Julian Edelman | New England Patriots


2016 TDs: 3 | OTD: 5.7



Edelman's 5-foot-10, 200-pound frame doesn't exactly scream "touchdown machine," but he certainly should have delivered more than three scores last season. Interestingly enough, Edelman caught a career-high seven touchdowns in only nine games in 2015. His 4.7 OTD that year suggested his scoring pace was unsustainable, but -- as is becoming a theme in this piece -- he overcorrected a bit in 2016. Edelman caught one of eight end zone targets last season after hauling in 12 of 25 (48 percent) during his first seven seasons. Edelman has never finished better than 24th at the position in end zone targets, but sees enough volume in a high-scoring offense that he's a strong bet to find the end zone more often in 2017.

2017 Projection: 6
 
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Don't expect as many touchdowns from these 16 players, including David Johnson and Antonio Brown

One of my favorite exercises each offseason is to go back to evaluate my predictions and projections from the previous year. Whether it's team record predictions, fantasy rankings or bold takes, I find it's a good way to tweak and improve "the process."

History has shown that predicting touchdown regression is significantly easier than you might imagine, especially in a sport so complicated to project. Last year's version of this article proved this yet again.

Here were the eight players featured and how things played out:

Player 2015 TD 2016 Projection 2016 Actual
Doug Baldwin 14 7 7
Allen Robinson 14 8 6
Ted Ginn Jr. 10 3 4
Tavon Austin 9 4 4
Kirk Cousins 5 2 4
Tyler Eifert 13 6 (13 games) 5 (8 games)
Allen Hurns 10 6 3 (11 games)
Karlos Williams 9 2 DNP

In each case, the player scored fewer touchdowns in 2016, and most came in pretty close to expected. This is far from surprising, as we've learned over the years that players simply can't sustain extremely high scoring rates. It's not a knock on their talent; scoring is simply more about opportunity.

You want proof? Good, I have it.

From 2007 to 2015, there were 245 instances in which a player totaled nine or more touchdowns as a rusher or receiver. Of those, a whopping 207 times (84.5 percent) the player scored fewer touchdowns the next season, and the average dip was 4.8. Of the 64 occasions when a player scored 13 or more TDs, 59 times (92.2 percent) he scored fewer the next season (average dip of 7.0). Of the 25 instances in which a player scored 15-plus touchdowns, 100 percent of the time that player scored fewer TDs the next season. In 2016, David Johnson (20), LeGarrette Blount (18) and Ezekiel Elliott (16) hit that mark.


Players with 9+ Rush/Rec TDs, 2007-15
TDs Sample %* Avg. decline
15+ 25 100 8.8
14 13 85 6.1
13 26 88 5.7
12 34 71 3.3
11 39 87 5.5
10 54 83 3.9
9 54 83 3.7
245 85 4.8
*Percentage who scored fewer TDs next season


As if that's not enough to help us predict touchdown regression, we also have opportunity-adjusted touchdowns (OTD). In this piece, I'll be referencing OTD, which is a statistic that weighs every carry/target and converts the data into one number that indicates a player's scoring opportunity. Put another way, it is how many touchdowns a league-average player would've scored with the exact same opportunity as the player shown.

A careful examination of 2016 usage for the players below tells us that we should expect a drop in their scoring production this season.

Note that this study is limited to regular-season rushing and receiving data.




Kenny Stills | Miami Dolphins


2016 TDs: 9 | OTD: 3.9

From 2007 to 2015, 68 players posted a season in which they scored on at least 15 percent of their receptions (minimum 40 receptions). Of those, 63 players (92.6 percent) scored fewer touchdowns the next season, with an average dip of 5.6 scores. Three players made the cut for this damning list last season. They are Stills (42 receptions, 9 TDs), Davante Adams (75, 12) and Dez Bryant (50, 8). Stills' target share increased down the stretch and he signed a four-year, $32 million contract extension during the offseason, but he'll need significantly more volume in order to match his 2016 touchdown total. That's unlikely in a run-heavy offense that will also need to keep Jarvis Landry, DeVante Parker and Julius Thomas busy.

2017 Projection: 5





Davante Adams and Jordy Nelson | Green Bay Packers

Adams' 2016 TDs: 12 | OTD: 7.8

Nelson's 2016 TDs: 14 | OTD: 10.6

In the past decade, there have been eight seasons in which a Packers wide receiver scored nine-plus touchdowns. All seven who played the next season scored fewer touchdowns. After scoring four touchdowns and registering nine end zone targets during his first two NFL seasons, Adams busted out to the tune of 12 scores in 2016. Fantasy's No. 9 scoring wideout caught seven of his 16 end zone targets (fifth-most). Nelson, meanwhile, racked up 20 end zone targets, which trailed only Mike Evans for most in the league. Nelson caught 12 of them and required post-catch runs of 1 and 13 yards on the other two scores. Nelson is a bold player to pick for a dip in scoring, considering he's found the end zone 13-plus times during three of his past five seasons, including his past two (he missed all of 2015). However, as noted earlier, history suggests at least a slight dip. Even with the projected drop, Nelson and Adams will find paydirt often as long as Aaron Rodgers is under center.

2017 Projection: Adams 8, Nelson 10



LeGarrette Blount | Philadelphia Eagles

2016 TDs: 18 | OTD: 16.5

Blount paced the NFL with 18 rushing touchdowns and 24 carries inside the 5-yard line last season. That, of course, came on a career-high 299 carries; he entered the year with 31 career rushing scores and 34 carries inside the 5. His OTD actually wasn't too far off his touchdown total and he'll remain the goal-line back in Philadelphia, but it's unreasonable to expect him to come close to matching his 2016 numbers in a lesser offense. As a nonfactor in the passing game, Blount's fantasy upside is capped, especially in PPR formats.

2017 Projection: 8



Tevin Coleman | Atlanta Falcons

2016 TDs: 11 | OTD: 5.1

One of the many benefactors of Atlanta's historic offensive season, Coleman scored 11 touchdowns on only 149 touches last season. Coleman's scoring rate is far from sustainable, especially when you consider that he registered only three carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line (he scored on all three) and zero end zone targets. Interestingly, Coleman posted a 3.5 OTD as a rookie in 2015, but scored only one TD and was thus a candidate for a leap forward. He obviously did that and then some. He'll come back to earth along with the rest of the Falcons' offense in 2017.

2017 Projection: 7



Tyreek Hill | Kansas City Chiefs

2016 TDs: 9 | OTD: 4.9

One of last year's breakout players, Hill found the end zone on nine of his 83 offensive touches and added another three TDs as a returner. That's an unsustainable rate for anyone, let alone a 185-pounder who is rarely used near the goal line. Hill was limited to three end zone targets (120 players had more) and scored three rushing touchdowns despite one carry inside the opponent's 12 yard line. 2012 was the last year a player scored more than two special-teams touchdowns in a single season (Darius Reynaud and Jacoby Jones both pulled it off). Hill's volume will increase since Jeremy Maclin is gone, but Hill's scoring rate is sure to take a dive.

2017 Projection: 5 (6 including returns)


Ezekiel Elliott | Dallas Cowboys

2016 TDs: 16 | OTD: 9.5

Elliott has the unfortunate distinction of owning the largest gap between his OTD and touchdown total (6.5) last season. That's not a recipe for sustainability. Elliott was afforded 11 carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line (10th-most), but somehow managed 15 rushing scores. He scored on five of six carries from the 1-yard line, and eight of his scores came on runs of at least 8 yards. Zeke's lone receiving touchdown came from 87 yards out. Despite all the negativity I just threw out there, Elliott remains the workhorse in a run-heavy offense with a very good offensive line and is expected to see more passing-game work. Just beware that his 2016 scoring rate can't be counted on.

2017 Projection: 14


LeSean McCoy | Buffalo Bills

2016 TDs: 14 | OTD: 8.5

After combining for 10 touchdowns (14.0 OTD) during the 2014 and '15 seasons, McCoy exploded for 14 scores in 2016. He scored on four of his nine carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line and failed to see a single end zone target for the seventh time in his eight seasons. Tremendous blocking (league- and career-high 4.0 yards before contact) allowed McCoy a career-best 5.4 yards per carry and his highest touchdown total since 2011. He remains a workhorse and fantasy RB1, but we should be expecting McCoy to return to Earth in the scoring department this season.

2017 Projection: 9


Taylor Gabriel | Atlanta Falcons

2016 TDs: 7 | OTD: 2.3

Gabriel gained fantasy relevance thanks to the Falcons' incredible offensive 2016 season. He scored on six of his 36 receptions despite registering only one end zone target. Four of his scores required post-catch runs of at least 20 yards, and his one rushing touchdown came from 9 yards out (his only carry within 46 yards of the goal line). The Falcons' offense will still be pretty good this year, but Gabriel won't see enough volume to repeat of his 2016 scoring production.

2017 Projection: 4


Sterling Shepard | New York Giants

2016 TDs: 8 | OTD: 5.1

Shepard ranked 36th among wide receivers in receptions (65), but ninth in receiving touchdowns (eight) as a rookie. He scored on four of his seven end zone targets and four of his eight additional targets within 2 yards of the goal line. Especially with Brandon Marshall -- the NFL leader in end zone targets during the past decade with 180 -- now in the mix, Shepard is a good bet for less volume and scoring production in 2017. Shepard is recovering from a low-ankle sprain, but the below projection assumes he's back and ready to roll in Week 1.

2017 Projection: 5


Antonio Brown | Pittsburgh Steelers

2016 TDs: 12 | OTD: 8.5

The gap of 3.5 between Brown's 2016 touchdown total and OTD was the highest we've seen in his career. Yes, his touchdown total was similar to 2015 (10) and 2014 (13), but he also saw significantly more targets in those seasons (40 and 26 more, respectively, to be exact). Brown did tie for second in the league with 20 end zone targets last season, but he managed only three additional looks inside the 8-yard line and scored on all three. Brown is an absolute stud talent and target monster, but we shouldn't count on him to match his career-best 11.3 percent touchdown-per-reception rate in 2017.

2017 Projection: 8
 
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David Johnson | Arizona Cardinals

2016 TDs: 20 | OTD: 17.3

So far in his career, Johnson has had a knack for exceeding reasonable expectations in the rushing touchdown department. Through two seasons, he sports a 17.9 rushing OTD, but has run for 24 touchdowns. His receiving numbers (7.9 OTD, 8 touchdowns) are as expected. Johnson racked up an obscene 373 touches last season, which included 22 carries inside the 5-yard line (second-most) and four end zone targets (most among RBs). That helped him to 20 scores, though, as noted earlier, 100 percent of players who have accrued 15-plus touchdowns in a season saw a dip the next season. Of course, Johnson won't be short massive volume again in 2017. Expect a drop in touchdowns, but he'll still be a fantasy superstar.

2017 Projection: 16


Jamison Crowder | Washington Redskins

2016 TDs: 7 | OTD: 3.9

Crowder ranked 49th among wide receivers with six end zone targets last season (three went for TDs) but was tied for 14th with seven touchdown catches. His other four touchdowns came on post-catch runs of 5, 8, 12 and 57 yards. Crowder is a candidate for a bigger role in Washington this year, but his 5-foot-8, 185-pound frame makes it a near lock he won't see much work near the goal line.

2017 Projection: 4



Robert Turbin | Indianapolis Colts

2016 TDs: 8 | OTD: 5.5

That is not a misprint; Turbin really did score eight touchdowns last season. He achieved the feat despite registering only 73 touches as Frank Gore's caddy. Incredibly, Turbin entered 2016 with three career touchdowns, zero career carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line and zero end zone targets. He vultured some work from Gore near the goal line, but that has been overstated for the most part. Turbin scored on all three of his carries from the opponent's 1-yard line and on four of his 11 additional tries inside the 10. His lone receiving score came on an end zone target, which happened to be one of his two targets within 20 yards of the end zone. Turbin will vulture a few more scores from Gore in 2017, but not nearly as much as last year. Gore, by the way, posted four rushing scores and a 6.4 rushing OTD.

2017 Projection: 4


Rishard Matthews | Tennessee Titans

2016 TDs: 9 | OTD: 6.8

Matthews wasn't a full-time player until midseason, but he still managed to score nine touchdowns on 65 receptions en route to finishing 22nd at the position in fantasy points. Matthews was afforded 12 end zone targets (he caught seven) after totaling nine during his first four seasons. His other two scores came from 2 yards out. Eric Decker and Corey Davis (both 6-foot-3) are now in the mix in Tennessee and are sure to handle plenty of work near the goal line.

2017 Projection: 5



Latavius Murray | Minnesota Vikings

2016 TDs: 12 | OTD: 10.2

Murray ran for 12 touchdowns last season, thanks to 16 carries inside the opponent's 5-yard line (both were fifth-most at the position). That came after he totaled eight rushing scores and 11 carries inside the 5 during the first two seasons of his career. Murray may be asked to handle goal-line duties in Minnesota, but he is unlikely to come close to matching his 2016 production with rookie Dalvin Cook ticketed for a big role.

2017 Projection: 4
 
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Tha_Mac said:
Can we get this one?

What record sale means for Rockets' future and other owners
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What a record sale means for the Rockets' future and other owners




What implications will Tuesday's news that the Houston Rockets have been sold to local billionaire Tilman Fertitta for a reported $2.2 billion, per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, have for both the Rockets and the rest of the NBA?

Fertitta's willingness to pay longtime owner Les Alexander the highest price ever for an NBA team suggests franchise values continue to, well, skyrocket. But with Houston headed for the luxury tax if the team is able to re-sign newly acquired All-Star guard Chris Paul as a free agent next summer, might the $2.2 billion price tag only be the beginning for Fertitta?






Another record NBA sale


When Steve Ballmer paid $2 billion for the LA Clippers in 2014 in the wake of former owner Donald Sterling being banned from the NBA, it was easy to dismiss the price as an outlier. The hurried nature of the sale encouraged Ballmer to bid high in order to beat his competition, and the Clippers are in one of the NBA's premier markets.

It's harder to find any such caveats for the price Fertitta paid for the Rockets. Yes, Houston is a strong market for the NBA, with the area (including the city and surrounding suburbs) placing eighth in the most recent Nielsen rankings of local market size. Houston is the biggest metropolitan area with just three teams in the traditional big four sports (NBA, MLB, NFL and NHL).

Still, for a team outside the top three markets to fetch north of $2 billion -- and $550 million more than Forbes magazine's 2017 valuation, which put the Rockets eighth in the league -- suggests that the average NBA franchise might be worth closer to $1.5 billion than $1 billion at this point.

NBA ownership groups have generally been content to ride out the appreciation in their franchises' values. After a flurry of sales in 2010 and 2011 ahead of the league's most recent lockout, no team has changed majority ownership since the Atlanta Hawks in 2015 -- another sale, like the Clippers, that came under duress rather than because the majority owner wanted to cash in on the value of his team.

The $2.2 billion Alexander got for the Rockets might encourage other owners to begin exploring the market for a possible sale. After all, there is some risk that current valuations are based in a bubble in the value of television rights for sports at the local and national level, a bubble that could eventually burst and cause a correction in values.





Sales price only the beginning


Even after paying a record price to buy the team, Fertitta better keep his checkbook open. The Rockets are unique among franchises to change hands in how stable their organization is, both on and off the court. While most owners seek to strip down management and the roster ahead of a sale, Alexander committed to recent extensions for general manager Daryl Morey (who signed on through 2021-22 in June) and MVP runner-up James Harden (whose four-year extension, signed in July, locks him up through the 2022-23 season).

Of course, any owner would likely want to keep Morey and Harden, key figures in Houston winning at least 54 games three of the last four seasons. (The exception was a big one, as the Rockets went a disappointing 41-41 in 2015-16.) After adding Paul via trade, Houston has the chance to emerge as the greatest threat to the Golden State Warriors. Our projections based on ESPN's real plus-minus have the Rockets as the second-best team in the NBA this season behind Golden State.

At the same time, Houston's roster could soon become very expensive. If the Rockets re-sign Paul for his maximum salary next season, they'll be committing an estimated $80 million or so in annual salary to their All-Star backcourt over the course of Harden's extension, which kicks in during the 2019-20 season. Add in new contracts for starting center Clint Capela (who can become a restricted free agent next summer if he doesn't agree to an extension before the start of the upcoming regular season) and starting small forward Trevor Ariza (an unrestricted free agent next summer) and Houston could pay the luxury tax beginning in 2018-19.

By the following year, with Harden's salary jumping an estimated $7.4 million, the Rockets could be deep in the tax. Let's say conservatively that Capela and Ariza make a combined $20 million in 2019-20. That would give Houston nearly $150 million committed to 12 players, putting the Rockets almost $20 million over the projected tax line and translating to a tax bill of more than $40 million.

Morey has proven adept at managing his team's finances so as to maintain flexibility. It's possible at some point Houston may be able to get from under the final season or two of the contract for starting power forward Ryan Anderson, which pays him $20-plus million in 2018-19 and 2019-20, to ease the burden.

But no amount of creativity can entirely work around paying two players a combined three-quarters of the team's salary cap. So Fertitta must be prepared to pay the luxury tax in order to keep the Rockets' core intact.





Alexander's legacy


As he departs NBA ownership, it's worth considering the legacy Alexander leaves. For fans in Houston, that surely begins with the pair of championships the Rockets won during the first two years Alexander owned the team. While Houston has yet to return to the heights of Alexander's first two years of ownership, the team has been consistently successful, winning 56.9 percent of games and reaching 50 wins nine times in Alexander's 24 seasons. (The Rockets also won at a 50-win pace during the lockout-shortened 1998-99 season.)

More than anything, however, Alexander may ultimately be remembered for his instrumental role in accelerating the acceptance of statistical analysis in the NBA. His decision in 2006 to hire Morey, then a relatively anonymous member of the Boston Celtics' front office, was far ahead of the curve. At a time when the majority of NBA teams employed no full-time statistical analysts, the Rockets under Morey had a team of them and have continued to remain at the leading edge.

Given the influence of Michael Lewis' bestselling "Moneyball" on NBA owners and the rapid growth in data available to teams over the past 15 years, it's likely they would have embraced statistical analysis at some point. Still, Alexander's bold decision to hire Morey -- and the success the franchise subsequently enjoyed -- made it easier for other franchises to follow in Houston's footsteps. And that legacy could outshine any number of wins and losses.
 
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Da_Eggman said:
Ultimate 25 ranking top basketball prospect regardless of class
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Ultimate 25 ranking top basketball prospect regardless of class

With reclassifications, large events and increased evaluations, the top basketball prospects from different classes can more easily be compared. Top performances, current productive level, potential, pure talent and who contributes to winning are all factors used to determine the best 25 hoops prospects, regardless of class.

Here are our Ultimate 25 basketball prospects:

1. R.J. Barrett
Class of 2018
Rank: ESPN 100 No. 1
Barrett has established himself as the best in his class by way of outstanding performances, everyday production with an all-around game that is suited for the NBA. He works feverishly on his skills and on the glass, as his ever-improving perimeter game is shining.



2. Zion Williamson
Class of 2018
Rank: ESPN 100 No. 2
He should dominate this season with his physically imposing frame and versatility. He is a dunk highlight machine with his spectacular finishes both over and through defenders and hits free throws at one of the highest rates in the country. In short, Williamson brings the highlights, basketball IQ and the production.



3. Cameron Reddish
Class of 2018
Rank: ESPN 100 No.3
He is oozing with upside as a potential big guard down the road. Now is the time for Reddish to become more of a player than a prospect because he has all the tools to do a lot of things on the court.



4. Bol Bol
Class of 2018
Rank: ESPN 100 No. 4
Bol Bol has had some incredible games and he has impacted at both ends of the floor. At 7-foot-2, he protects the basket and rebounds with size and length while knocking down 3-pointers on the offensive end.



5. James Wiseman
Class of 2019
Rank: ESPN 60 No. 1
He is extremely long and athletic with a mobile frame that he uses to move up and down the court. Wiseman runs, rebounds and protects the rim while displaying a jump hook that is opening the eyes of every college program. He will be on the NBA's radar very soon.


6. Darius Bazley
Class of 2018
Rank: ESPN 100 No. 9
He shot up the charts in the most recent player rankings (No. 33 to No. 9) in the senior class. His versatility, wing span and skill, along with solid decision-making, make this Syracuse-bound forward an exciting prospect.



7. Simisola shyttu
Class of 2018
Rank: ESPN 100 No. 6
He is a blue collar-type with a strong and powerful build who demonstrates the ability to score and be a playmaker from the forward position. shyttu's dependable production is what makes him special.

8. Vernon Carey Jr.
Class of 2019
Rank: ESPN 60 No. 2
His father played profession football for the Miami Dolphins and Carey is built like the ultimate power forward. He's a worker on the glass who destroys people in the paint and at the rim. The left-handed big man can stretch the floor with his jumper too.



9. Trendon Watford
Class of 2019
Rank: ESPN 60 No. 10
He is one of the most-versatile players regardless of class. Watford scores in the paint, beyond the arc and anywhere in-between. Watford makes purposeful cuts to the rim, mixed in with a midrange jumper and drive move that complements his long-distance shot. He keeps it simple and is highly effective.



10. Isaiah Todd
Class of 2020
Rank: ESPN 25 No. 1
Todd is coachable, which will serve him well as he develops, and if he puts in the work needed to be at the top of his class, then this future star shines bright.



11. Jalen Green
Class of 2020
Rank: ESPN 25 No.2
Green is an elite slasher who possesses freakish athleticism. Could be a versatile perimeter defensive player due to his physical qualities, but needs to polish his jumper. He has plenty of time and upside on his side.



12. Keldon Johnson
Class of 2018
Rank: ESPN 100 No. 7
He is a big perimeter player who contributes in many ways on offensive and is a willing defender. He was impressive at the Nike basketball Academy and the remaining questions revolve around maintaining his production while adding a dependable jumper.



13. Romeo Langford
Class of 2018
Rank: ESPN 100 No. 5
Langford has dropped big numbers in many games and is one of the most explosive scoring guards in high school basketball. He has an uncanny ability to score from all three levels.



14. Anfernee Simons
Class of 2018
Rank: ESPN 100 No. 8
He is a smooth scoring guard, with very little wasted motion his game, who had an outstanding spring and summer campaign. Simons is explosive in finishing the fast break and savvy to create space to score against a set defense.



15. Cole Anthony
Class of 2019
Rank: ESPN 60 No. 6
One of the ultimate playmakers in the high school game, Anthony has dynamic athletic ability. He can be a distributor or scorer who can constantly put pressure on defense. His passing vision is exceptional and he navigates ballscreens like a veteran.


16. Scottie Lewis
Class of 2019
Rank: ESPN 60 No. 8
Regardless of class, Lewis soars to the rim with a crazy vertical and finishes with authority. His shooting stroke, especially from midrange, is emerging as is his ball-handling. Right now, Lewis is also one of the best in the transition game.



17. Tre Jones
Class of 2018
Rank: ESPN 100 No. 10
Put him in any game and he can run the show and lead a team. Jones plays with the poise of an experienced playmaker and exhibits passion on the defensive end.



18. Darius Garland
Class of 2018
Rank: ESPN 100 No. 11
He is talented with a burst of speed who can make pinpoint passes and his 3-point shot makes him hard to guard. Garland is a scoring point guard with straight-line speed and bounce with ball-handling skills to leave defenders flat-footed.



19. Immanuel Quickley
Class of 2018
Rank: ESPN 100 No. 12
He brings attractive size for his position at 6-foot-3, and adds scoring skills. He is one of the best in the open floor and is most dangerous with the ball in his hands.



20. Quentin Grimes
Class of 2018
Rank: ESPN 100 No. 13
His shot finds the basket and his name finds the box score often as one of more dynamic scorers in the class. Grimes is another recruit who separated himself this past spring and summer.



21. Nassir Little
Class of 2018
Rank: ESPN 100 No. 14
When it comes to playing with all out intensity, Little is one of the best in the class. He gives you points, rebounds and defense every single game and is one of the few who can do all three well.



22. Chol Marial
Class of 2019
Rank: ESPN 60 No. 4
Marial is full of potential with size and developing skills. His presence has influence during the game and once his body puts on muscle his impact will become greater. At 7-foot he has both a jump-hook and a 3-point shot.



23. Jalen Suggs
Class of 2020
Rank: ESPN 25 No. 3
He is a fierce competitor who makes good decisions with the ball. He is extremely coachable and time is on his side for development as a rising sophomore.



24. R.J. Hampton
Class of 2020
Rank: ESPN 25 No. 4
At 16 years old with a 6-4 frame and open-floor speed, Hampton is special. He is a high-major prospect who has the mentality and tools to score and facilitate.



25. Jalen Johnson
Class of 2020
Rank: ESPN 25 No. 6
His instincts for the game on both ends of the court are impressive at a young age. He makes quick and smart decisions to score or find the open man. At 6-7, his game shows a completeness.
 
Skooby

Skooby

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Tha_Mac said:
NBA calendar: Every important date from now until the playoffs
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NBA calendar: Every important date from now until the playoffs

September: Rosters are finalized for training camp

Sept. 5: Informal workouts begin

Sept. 15: Guarantee date

Sept. 25: First team meeting

Sept. 26: First practice

Sept. 26: Guarantee date

Oct. 1: Last date for restricted free agents to accept a qualifying offer

Oct. 14: NBA cut date (teams will incur a financial cost for players with $0 protection if not waived by 5 p.m.)

  • A player with an Exhibit 10 must be waived for his team not to receive a cap hit. (Exhibit 10s are attachments to minimum contracts that allow for conversions to two-way contracts).
Oct. 15: Guarantee date

  • Oklahoma City's Semaj Christon: $0 to $1.3M
  • Milwaukee's Gary Payton II: $100K to $1.3 million
Oct. 16: Rosters are set

Oct. 16: Rookie extension deadline 6 p.m. ET

Oct. 16: Last day to extend players with two years left

  • Last day of Designated Player Veteran Extension eligibility
Oct. 16: Guarantee date

  • Houston's Troy Williams: $1.3 million to $1.5 million
Oct. 17: Guarantee date

Oct: 18: Guarantee date

Oct. 19: Deadline for a waived player who was signed to an Exhibit 10 to sign with the G League affiliate

Oct. 19: Guarantee date

Oct. 31: Guarantee date

Oct. 31: Third- and fourth-year rookie option deadline

  • Each player will also receive an additional 30 percent in salary that will not impact the salary cap.
Oct. 21: G League draft

Nov. 3: G League regular season starts

Nov. 10: Guarantee date

Nov 15: Philadelphia can renegotiate contract for Robert Covington

Dec. 5: Guarantee date

Dec. 15: Trade restrictions for free agents lifted (except those signed to 120 percent early-Bird or Bird rights deals)

Dec. 15: Guarantee date

Jan. 5: 10-day contracts can be signed

Jan. 7: Contracts become guaranteed if not waived by 5 p.m. ET

Jan. 15: Trade restrictions for Bird free agents lifted

  • Last day to sign a two-way contract
Feb. 8: Trade deadline

Feb. 16-18: All-Star Weekend

March 1: Playoff eligibility deadline

April 11: Regular season ends
 
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ReturnOfJudah said:
@Skooby
Scout's Take: ESPN 100 PF Naz Reid picks LSU

Thanks in advance
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Scout's Take: ESPN 100 PF Naz Reid picks LSU

ESPN 100 big man Nazreon Reid gave LSU a verbal commitment on Tuesday night. He had narrowed his choices to the Tigers and Arizona. Here's what he'll bring to Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

Why he committed: There are a few reasons Reid chose LSU. First, he developed a strong bond with fellow commit Javonte Smart at the NBPA camp in June. Next, and perhaps most importantly, Reid’s girlfriend, Raven Farley, was a McDonald’s All-American and will be a freshman on the women’s team this season at LSU. That relationship got Reid to visit Baton Rouge and once he did, everything lined up. Head coach Will Wade and his staff then closed the deal. Any time you get someone to visit your campus, you become a viable option whether they are local or far from home.

What he brings: When it comes to talented big men, Reid is at or near the top of the list. He stands at 6-foot-10 and owns a highly skilled game with fluid movements both in the open floor and against a half-court defense. The ability to score inside or out is equally impressive as he will post up or step out, face up and score. He can rebound in traffic and even push the ball in the open floor. His passing skills are better than most realize for a player his size. Defensively he has demonstrated the talent to block shots at a high rate. The next step for Reid is to grow from a "feel like it" player and become an every day player. His lack of effort and inconsistencies haven't allowed his production to live up to his potential.

How he fits: LSU will be losing most of its front line after this season, but it will have a strong nucleus of perimeter players. Reid will play the power forward or center position for the Tigers and likely will be inserted in the starting lineup from day one. Look for Wade to build around Reid with playmakers and shooters to keep the post open while also utilizing Reid on the outside to make opposing bigs come out and guard him. Look for Reid to fit best and be most effective in a high-low game, through the elbows and in ball-screens as a roll man or a pop-out shooter.

Who he reminds us of: There is no denying Reid has NBA talent. With that said, two former NBA players come to mind: Antoine Walker and Chris Webber. Reid has versatility that you just don’t see in big men. He is bigger than Walker and much like the former NBA forward, he uses his physical frame and touch to score buckets and create mismatches. Like Webber, he possesses huge hands, high skill and is an above-average passer. Reid possesses that type of potential. The question will be can he play hard on a regular basis.

How the class is shaping up: Wade is off to a tremendous start with the high-level talent he is landing. Reid will join Smart to give the Tigers the firepower they need to compete in the SEC. The staff will now shift their attention to more size as they prioritize ESPN 100 prospects Emmitt Williams, Darius Days and Josh LeBlanc. On the perimeter, look for the staff to target Kaden Archie.
 
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