Big Board 4.0: Top NBA draft prospects competing for No. 1
We're getting closer to draft season.
Over the next few weeks, conference tournaments and March Madness will give players a major opportunity to boost their NBA draft stock.
I spoke with a number of NBA GMs and scouts to compile this updated ranking of the top prospects.
Here's our last Big Board of the college season.
1. Markelle Fultz
Previous rank: No. 1
Washington
Freshman
Guard
Fultz's grasp on the No. 1 pick has always been a bit tenuous. It hasn't helped that Fultz has been out of the lineup since Feb. 9 after suffering a knee injury against Washington State, forcing him to miss a key second matchup against Lonzo Ball on March 1.
However, in a survey of a number of top NBA execs and scouts, Fultz still polled slightly ahead of Ball as the No. 1 pick. What's keeping him ahead? He's a more complete player and scorer than Ball and lacks any major holes in his game.
This doesn't mean he'll be the No. 1 pick, though several teams that could potentially land the No. 1 pick like the Celtics, Sixers and Wolves seem to be leaning toward Fultz right now.
Medical testing (no one in the NBA really knows what's going on with that knee), workouts and interviews will now be key for Fultz to hold on to the top position.
2. Lonzo Ball
Previous rank: No. 2
UCLA
Freshman
Guard
Ball continues to gain momentum in the drive for the No. 1 pick. While he is a less complete player than Fultz, the things he does well, he does really well.
Scouts are particularly enamored with his ability to control the game offensively. He makes everyone around him better but can take over games when things get close.
Several teams with good odds of winning the lottery like the Lakers, Suns and Magic appear to be leaning toward Ball. With Fultz's season probably over, a big NCAA tournament for Ball could help him gain even more ground.
3. Josh Jackson
Previous rank: No. 3
Kansas
Freshman
Forward
While Fultz and Ball are the clear favorites for the No. 1 pick, there are a handful of NBA GMs and scouts who feel that Jackson also makes a very strong case for the top pick.
He has improved significantly as the season has progressed, especially as a shooter. In his past 12 games he has shot 51 percent from 3 (18-for-35). He also has recorded seven double-doubles in that 12-game stretch.
He continues to be turnover prone and his free-throw shooting is a red flag worth noting, but Jackson's competitive fire and ability to play multiple positions are big pluses.
If he can keep hitting shots, he has superstar upside.
4. Dennis Smith
Previous rank: No. 4
NC State
Freshman
Guard
Smith is in the same boat as Fultz. Individually, he has had a terrific freshman season. But his team has lost nine of its past 10 games, and barring an improbable run in the ACC tourney, his season will end early.
The poor performances by the Wolfpack have taken their toll on Smith's draft stock a little. NBA scouts want to see point guards impact the game, and Smith doesn't have the same excuse that Fultz does. There was talent on this roster.
However, his elite athleticism and ability to get his shot anywhere on the floor are such big pluses that Smith's draft stock looks very secure in the Nos. 3-7 range.
5. Jonathan Isaac
Previous rank: No. 5
FSU
Freshman
Forward
While Isaac's production hasn't been particularly impressive of late (he scored only two points against Miami on Saturday and has failed to put up double-digit scoring in four of his past eight games), NBA scouts remain enamored with his elite skill set for a player his size. He also is a bit of an analytics darling (he ranks second to Ball on Kevin Pelton's statistical Big Board), which helps his cause.
If he can do put together a few big games for Florida State in the ACC and NCAA tournaments, he'll improve his stock.
Right now he also seems locked into that Nos. 4-7 range.
6. Malik Monk
Previous rank: No. 6
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard
When Monk is taking and hitting shots, he looks like a sure fire top-5 pick. There isn't a more lethal scorer in college basketball when he gets going (with the possible exception of Central Michigan's Marcus Keene).
Monk's biggest issue right now is consistency. He has frustrated John Calipari this season with the up-and-down nature of his play. He's also strikingly one-dimensional for a player ranked this high. But some scouts feel that Monk is still developing as a player and that we might see more dimensions to his game (creating off the dribble, floor vision) in the NBA than we see from him in college.
7. Lauri Markkanen
Previous rank: No. 9
Arizona
Freshman
Forward
Markkanen has a lot of fans among NBA scouts who see him as an ideal stretch-4 in the league. He's big and mobile at 7 feet, 230 pounds and can really, really stroke it from deep.
Markkanen has been in a shooting slump (4-for-28 from 3 in his past eight games) but his 3-point percentage is still at 43 percent for the season.
There are questions about who he'll defend at the next level and his rebounding could improve, but offensively, he looks like a terrific prospect.
8. Jayson Tatum
Previous rank: No. 7
Duke
Freshman
Forward
Tatum has all the physical tools to be a dominant NBA 3. Shooting remains the biggest question mark for him.
Tatum makes nearly 60 percent of his shots at the rim. However, things get a little sketchier as he moves away from the basket. He got on a hot streak as a shooter in mid-February, going 12-for-19 from 3 in a three-game stretch before regressing to the mean and hitting only three of his next 16 3s.
His 2-point jump shooting is essentially on par with his 3-point game (36 percent from the field). Some scouts feel Tatum has good enough mechanics to improve that area of his game.
9. De'Aaron Fox
Previous rank: No. 10
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard
Fox has been hobbled by injuries in February (first a right ankle, then a twisted knee) and hasn't really played at 100 percent. But he was still able to manage 19 points in a win versus Texas A&M on Saturday and seems to be getting back to his old self.
The jump shot has improved a little but still remains the biggest source of concern for scouts.
10. Miles Bridges
Previous rank: No. 12
Michigan State
Freshman
Forward
Bridges continues to impress scouts with his combination of athleticism, scoring ability and floor vision. He's shooting an impressive 41 percent on jumpers (both from 3 and from 2, according to Hoop-Math). He also has proven to be a terrific rebounder and a solid shot-blocker.
His team should make the tournament, but a loss to Maryland on Saturday didn't help the cause. Some scouts feel he's a better long-term prospect than Tatum. It will be interesting to see those two go at it in workouts.
11. Frank Ntilikina
Previous rank: No. 11
France
Age: 18
Guard
Ntilikina moved from the bench into a starting role for Strasbourg five games ago and his past three games have been impressive. He's averaging 14 points in his past three games, shooting 7-for-10 from 3, and has committed only one turnover in that stretch.
He's really neck-and-neck with Fox for the next point guard off the board once Fultz, Ball and Smith are taken. If he were a little more explosive athletically, I think he'd have the clear edge.
12. Robert Williams
Previous rank: No. 14
Texas A&M
Freshman
Forward/center
Williams is coming off a big 20-point, 13-rebound effort against Kentucky where he outplayed Bam Adebayo. He has put up double-doubles in six of his past eight games and is shooting 41 percent on his 2-point jumpers, per Hoop-Math.
Scouts are becoming convinced that he's more than just an athletic shot-blocker. It will be really interesting to see what NBA scouts do if both Williams and Harry Giles are on the board.