Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

Skooby

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28. Houston Rockets
20270.jpg


Luke Kennard
Duke
Sophomore
Guard

i


The Rockets really like to let the ball fly. They take and make more 3-pointers than any team in league, averaging a crazy 39 3s per game.

Kennard might be the best pure shooter in the draft this year. The Rockets can always find a home for a player like that.

Projected record: 57-25





29. San Antonio Spurs
20314.jpg


Josh Hart
Villanova
Senior
Guard

i


Hart just feels like a Spurs player: solid, no ego and can hurt you in a number of ways, such as hitting 3s and getting to the basket.

The Spurs have Danny Green to do a lot of that, but with Manu Ginobili potentially in his last season, Hart could be a nice fit.

Projected record: 62-20



30. Utah Jazz (via Warriors)*


20478.jpg


Donovan Mitchell
Louisville
Sophomore
Guard

i


Mitchell is having a strong sophomore season. He's one of the most athletic players in the draft and is emerging as a shooter.

He's a bit of a tweener, but he gives the Jazz some long-term depth in their backcourt.

Projected record (Warriors): 69-13 (Utah owns Golden State's first-round pick.)

BPI projected records current as of Feb. 14.
 

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5-on-5: What should Magic do? How many stars do the Lakers have?




How should Magic Johnson fix the Los Angeles Lakers? What about his new general manager?

How many future stars are already on the Lakers' roster?

Our NBA Insiders debate.



1. What five words best describe the news that Magic is taking over the Lakers?
J.A. Adande, ESPN.com: "Back to back! Yeah! YEAH!"

Those are five words I have associated with Magic ever since I saw this video clip in 1988. It's hard not to think of the 1980s when you see Magic with the Lakers, but since he spent half of Tuesday trying to leave the deep past in the past maybe we can, too. After all, as an executive he just won a WNBA championship with the Sparks and came within two games of the World Series with the Dodgers in 2016.

Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: Let's see what happens next.

The Lakers definitely needed to move on from the Jim Buss era, but Magic taking over does not magically (pun intended) make the Lakers into contenders overnight. There's a lot of work left to be done, and he will need experienced advisers surrounding him.

Baxter Holmes, ESPN.com: Dramatic. Showtime. History. Iconic. Starpower. (OK, that last one is actually spelled as two words.)

In a Hollywood-dominated market, the Lakers love splashy headlines and the spotlight, love to hire familiar faces from their illustrious past and are as star-crazed as any franchise in professional sports, if not more so. They also love being dramatic, such as making a momentous move like this one two days before the trade deadline. Hiring Magic Johnson in his new role checks all these boxes. It is a very Lakers thing to do.

David Thorpe, ESPN Insider: (1) Brand: The Lakers have an immediate identity, for better or worse. (2) Fool's gold: Magic's brand means zilch to winning transactions or developing talent, which is where the franchise has been taking a pounding over recent years. (3) Caution: Former players like to go with their gut, letting their eyes dictate policy. That's a mistake. (4) Dreams: If Magic can build for the franchise what he did for his own brand, it is fair for Lakers fans to feel optimism regarding their future. (5) Losses: No description needed.

Chad Ford, ESPN Insider: About time for Showtime's return.

The Lakers have been in decline for some time and a bit rudderless. Jeanie Buss should've made this move last season. Magic is ideal for this role. He's highly intelligent, he understands the culture of the team and he makes a much better face of the franchise than anyone else they were going to get. And his decision to bring in Rob Pelinka to work on the day-to-day stuff shows wisdom as well. Magic has too much on his plate and too little experience to take on those responsibilities by himself.







2. Jeanie Buss evidently saw the Jim Buss-Mitch Kupchak regime as a failure. Do you agree with her?
Adande: Hard not to when they presided over the worst stretch in franchise history. The biggest problem was matching the coach to the roster, even when they had star players. The worst was when they rushed to hire up-tempo maestro Mike D'Antoni to take over a big, slow team while he was too wobbly from knee surgery to even start the job. They also tried for too many metaphorical 3-pointers in free agency when midrange jumpers would've worked fine.

Elhassan: I do agree. All indications are that there was a fractured approach toward the direction of the basketball operations department, with several high-profile missteps outweighing whatever small victories they have amassed. But more important, Jim Buss was the one who put the artificial timeline on his job security. So in a way, Jeanie didn't do it, he did it to himself.

Ford: Yes. In recent years they couldn't figure out a way to put a contender around Kobe Bryant, nor would they commit to the full rebuilding process. The horrible Luol Deng and Timofey Mozgov contracts combined with their inability to land a marquee free agent -- or DeMarcus Cousins, for that matter -- were the final blows to their Lakers tenure.

The middle road is usually the worst path in the NBA. Buss and Kupchak were following it and it has led them here.

Thorpe: It's hard to say -- seems like until Kobe retired their hands were tied. I like their talent and their coach. Thus, I like their future. My guess is there were deep chasms between sides inside the organization.

Holmes: Given the Lakers' abysmal record and the laundry list of terrible moves that led them here, it's clear that Buss and Kupchak failed, but so too did others in the organization. Kobe Bryant's controversial $48.5 million, two-year deal did Kupchak & Co. no favors, as it limited their financial flexibility.

But there were too many mistakes to overlook, from swinging and missing on countless free agents (not to mention bumbling through the LaMarcus Aldridge sit-down) to not drafting Kristaps Porzingis, to the signings of Mozgov and Deng. There are surely more from which to choose. But simply put, the Lakers have only gotten worse in recent years, and someone had to take the fall.




3. What do you make of the news that Kobe's agent, Rob Pelinka, is expected to be named GM?
Ford: I think it's a strong hire. In covering his clients in the draft for ESPN, I've worked with Pelinka for the past decade. He's highly intelligent. Detail oriented. Has a great eye for evaluating talent (an underrated quality in a good agent -- just look at his client list). And the players he represents really like him. Some GMs and other agents don't like him, but that would be true with almost anyone who has been around as long as Pelinka.

I think more front offices should consider agents for these positions. They are expert negotiators who have started and run their own businesses, and they have deep experience recruiting and working with players. This one gets an A from me.

Elhassan: The pros are obvious, as Pelinka is a shrewd negotiator and, as an agent, presumably has not only an intimate familiarity with the nuts and bolts of the CBA but also a creative mind toward contract construction and deal parameters.

Having said that, it is important to note that Pelinka is just as inexperienced at his role as Magic is at his, and so there is still a strong need for competent voices with prior front-office experience to be a part of the inner circle.

Thorpe: I love it, though he isn't the only name I can think of. Being partners is a part of running a team and if Magic feels close to Rob then there is an argument for it. One thing is certain: Pelinka will have vastly more experience dealing with agents and should know how to talk to players. This would not be a decision I'd be worried about.

Holmes: First the Lakers hire Luke Walton from the Golden State Warriors, then they mimic the Warriors by hiring a powerful agent as their GM. This outside-the-box move is another sign that the Lakers are hoping to duplicate the Warriors' model.

It's unclear how Pelinka might fare, but he knows the Lakers well, having been Kobe Bryant's longtime agent. He has strong ties with players, executives and teams around the NBA. Those edges alone make him a quality hire, even if he lacks front-office experience.

Adande: It speaks to Kobe's influence more than involvement. Nothing indicates a desire to not be bothered like saying, "Let my agent handle it." But Magic and Jeanie obviously valued Kobe's input. Maybe they can have him work out with current or prospective players and get his feedback. On second thought, we've already seen how that goes.





4. How many future stars do the Lakers have?
Thorpe: Three as of today, meaning Julius Randle, Brandon Ingram and D'Angelo Russell have All-Star talent and upside. They need lots of work, a better culture, more experienced teammates, etc. -- but the raw talent is there.

The league is full of great players who were not great initially. It is a mistake to think those three guys can't be special. Example: Paul George and Klay Thompson didn't have a player efficiency rating over 20 until their fourth seasons.

Adande: They had two players in the Rising Stars game. Do we count that? We should, because none of the players on the current roster will be an All-Star soon.

The Lakers might not have a player on the court on Sunday at next year's All-Star Game in Staples Center, which never happened in the five previous times Los Angeles hosted the event. Magic might have to make a big trade just to keep the streak alive.

Holmes: The Lakers have some promising young talent, but at the moment, none of their players are in the same category as Porzingis, Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Karl-Anthony Towns. Which is to say, the Lakers don't have any obvious franchise stars that they can build around for the next decade or so.

They hope that Ingram will blossom into a star within a few years, and it will likely take him that long to even know, given how much he needs to physically develop. But Ingram seems like the most likely candidate. Russell has shown flashes, but his frequent knee injuries are troublesome. Randle and Jordan Clarkson have talent, but it's unclear whether they have star potential.

Ford: I'm not sure they have any right now. Their best bet will be landing a top-three pick in this year's draft. All three of the top players on my Big Board -- Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball and Josh Jackson -- have higher ceilings than anyone currently on the roster. As for current Lakers, I'm still a believer in Ingram, but it's clearly going to take awhile.

Elhassan: Maybe two? Russell and Ingram both have potential, but they're both pretty far off from realizing it.





5. What advice would you give to Magic?
Adande: Delegate. It's something he always did well, anyway -- in business and running sports franchises. Maybe you can't point to specific transactions he was behind with the Dodgers and Sparks, but you also can't find examples of him meddling. He also needs to be more visible and accountable than Jim Buss was. Pretty sure he can clear that bar.

Elhassan: Surround yourself with smart people and listen to what they have to say. When I was working in the league, I always felt my responsibility was to provide the people I worked for with all the information they needed to make an informed decision. Whether or not they followed my recommendation was inconsequential compared to the idea that they were fully equipped to make an educated decision.

Thorpe: Hire Tommy Sheppard from the Wizards, if you can. He is more experienced than pretty much anyone not currently a GM today at how to run a franchise from A to Z. The game is evolving so fast and we see how Washington has become a successful program, with good drafting, smart acquisitions and a very good coach who was supported fully after a rough start. He is a wheeler-dealer who also can work well behind the scenes.

Ford: Follow the game plan of your arch-nemesis, the Celtics. Keep collecting assets. Let your young players develop. Don't rush to put a contender out there. As your pieces grow, look for advantageous deals. Don't let the lure of L.A. be your blueprint. If the Lakers keep their pick this year, they'll be in very good shape going forward as long as Magic doesn't get trigger happy.

Holmes: Do not dwell on the Lakers' glorious history. Instead, focus on the nuances of the new CBA, how globalization and technology have affected the reach of big-market teams and how analytics, biometrics and more can help give you an edge in the modern game.

For too long, the Lakers have been stuck in the past. Magic Johnson was one of the brightest lights in that glorious past, but unless they want to stay irrelevant for years to come, Magic and the Lakers need to look ahead and appreciate how much has changed and how much they'll need to change to be contenders again.
 

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I'll just post the Lakers and Kings picks...all the other picks are the same from the post I made the other day.

3. Los Angeles Lakers*
20363.jpg

Josh Jackson
Kansas
Freshman
Forward

i

The Lakers currently have a 46.8 percent chance of landing a top-three pick in the draft, according to BPI. If they don't land in the top three, the Sixers will get the pick.

Jackson has been on fire lately for Kansas and is making a strong case for the No. 1 pick, as well. The Lakers have added some offensive firepower with young players such as Brandon Ingram, D'Angelo Russell and Julius Randle. Jackson gives them a player who excels defensively, brings a ferocious winning mentality and has the versatility to let coach Luke Walton use him in the same way the Warriors have used Andre Iguodala.

While Fultz and Ball might be a little more appealing, what Jackson would add to the culture of this team shouldn't be discounted.

Odds of winning lottery: 15.6 percent (Sixers get the Lakers' pick if it falls outside the top three)

Projected record: 28-54

7. Sacramento Kings (via Pelicans)*
20364.jpg

Jayson Tatum
Duke
Freshman
Forward

i

The Kings received this pick (top-three protected) from the Pelicans along with Buddy Hield, Tyreke Evans and Langston Galloway in the DeMarcus Cousins trade on Sunday night.

While the Kings love Hield, something we reported in May of last year, the biggest prize in the deal for them is the Pelicans' pick. If it falls somewhere in the top 12, they are looking at a starter to potential All-Star talent.

Picking No. 7 might be a bit unrealistic. The Pelicans, with Cousins on board, should make a serious run in the West for the No. 8 seed. But for now, that's where BPI has them slotted, and Tatum seems like a logical fit. (The projections haven't factored in the addition of Cousins yet, though RPM projections from ESPN's Kevin Pelton have the Pelicans right on the edge of the playoffs).

Tatum probably has the most raw talent of the players left on the board. He's a prototypical 3 in the NBA. If he can ever get his 3-point shot to fall with regularity, he'd be a steal this late in the draft. Rudy Gay is out with an Achilles injury and has a player-option this summer, so Tatum should be a nice fit in what's now considered a major rebuild.

Odds of winning lottery: 4.3 percent

Projected record (Pelicans): 33-49 (Sacramento will get New Orleans' pick if it falls outside the top three.)


10. Sacramento Kings*
20365.jpg

De'Aaron Fox
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard

i

Drafting a young point guard has been a need for years. Luckily, there is still one on the board for Sacramento.

The depth of the draft remains ridiculous. Fox is having a terrific season for the Wildcats and might be the fastest player in the draft, yet he can barely crack the top 10.

He doesn't give the Kings the shooting they need, but he's a major prospect in every other area.

Odds of winning lottery: 1.1 percent (If the Kings move ahead of Philadelphia in the lottery and are in the top 10, they swap spots with the Sixers. If Sacramento's pick falls outside the top 10, it will go to Chicago.)

Projected record: 34-48


28. Los Angeles Lakers (via Rockets)*
20478.jpg

Donovan Mitchell
Louisville
Sophomore
Guard

i

The Lakers picked up this first-rounder from Houston in the Lou Williams deal.

Mitchell is having a strong sophomore season. He's one of the most athletic players in the draft and is emerging as a shooter. He's a bit of a tweener, but he gives the Lakers a long-term replacement for Williams.

Projected record (Rockets): 57-25 (The Lakers own the Rockets' first-round pick.)


 

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Your quick guide to every team, pick and trade in the 2017 lottery

To help you get ready for May's NBA draft lottery, here's our ultimate guide to every likely pick, potential trade and much more.


While there seems to be a clear top two -- Washington's Markelle Fultz and UCLA's Lonzo Ball -- the consensus really breaks down from there. Various teams have different needs, stand at different places in rebuilding efforts and carry various appetites for risk.

What follows is a team-by-team guide to the lottery. What are each team's odds of winning the lottery? What are their team needs? Who might be a good fit?

Note: Projected records and lottery odds are from ESPN's Basketball Power Index.

Boston Celtics (15-67*, via Nets)
i

No. 1 pick odds: 25 percent
Top-3 pick odds: 64.3 percent
Most likely spot: No. 1

Key trades*: The Celtics own the rights to swap picks with the Nets.

Whom Boston should draft with the ...

No. 1 pick: Markelle Fultz
No. 2 pick: Lonzo Ball
No. 3 pick: Josh Jackson

Most likely pick: Markelle Fultz | PG | Fr. | Washington

The Celtics don't necessarily need backcourt help. Isaiah Thomas is an All-Star, and the team is very high on Marcus Smart, Avery Bradley and Terry Rozier.

However, Danny Ainge has been in search of a superstar, and Fultz and Ball have that sort of potential. Fultz seems like an especially good fit in Boston because of his ability to play both backcourt positions. Look for the Celtics to take the best player, period. Ainge is a collector of assets. He'll figure out the fit later.

Alternative pick: Lonzo Ball | PG | Fr. | UCLA

Los Angeles Lakers (26-56)
i

No. 1 pick odds: 19.9 percent
Top-3 pick odds: 49.6 percent
Most likely spot: No. 2

Key trade: L.A. will send its first-round pick to Philly if it falls outside the top three (50.4 percent chance of keeping pick).

Whom L.A. should draft with the ...

No. 1 pick: Lonzo Ball
No. 2 pick: Markelle Fultz
No. 3 pick: Josh Jackson

Most likely pick: Lonzo Ball | PG | Fr. | UCLA

The Lakers will be sweating it on lottery night again this year. Fall outside the top three and they'll lose their pick to the Sixers. Land in the top three and they'll have the potential to add the best young player on the roster.

Ball's father, Lavar, has publicly stated his desire for his son to stay home and play for the Lakers. Given their current personnel, Ball seems like a great fit. D'Angelo Russell can move to the 2, and the Lakers can have their best floor general since Magic Johnson wore purple and gold.

Alternative pick: Josh Jackson | G/F | Fr. | Kansas

Phoenix Suns (26-56)
i

No. 1 pick odds: 15.6 percent
Top-3 pick odds: 48.3 percent
Most likely spot: No. 3

Whom Phoenix should draft with the ...

No. 1 pick: Lonzo Ball
No. 2 pick: Markelle Fultz
No. 3 pick: Josh Jackson

Most likely pick: Josh Jackson | G/F | Fr. | Kansas

The Suns already have two starting-caliber point guards in Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight. But Knight was shopped heavily before the deadline, and as much as Phoenix loves Bledsoe, both Ball and Fultz have more upside.

If they land at No. 3, Jackson gives them maximum versatility, an elite defensive presence and the highest motor in the draft.

Alternative pick: Jonathan Isaac | F | Fr. | Florida State

Orlando Magic (30-52)
i

No. 1 pick odds: 11.9 percent
Top-3 pick odds: 28.7 percent
Most likely spot: No. 4

Whom Orlando should draft with the ...

No. 1 pick: Lonzo Ball
No. 2 pick: Markelle Fultz
No. 3 pick: Dennis Smith

Most likely pick: Dennis Smith | PG | Fr. | North Carolina State

The Magic don't appear to be sold on Elfrid Payton at point guard. Even if they were, his ceiling doesn't come close to matching those of Ball and Fultz.

If the Magic fall to No. 4, where they are currently projected, Smith is a pretty nice consolation prize. He's an elite athlete and an explosive scorer. He just lacks the size and efficiency of Ball and Fultz.

Alternative pick: Malik Monk | G | Fr. | Kentucky

Philadelphia 76ers (30-52)
i

No. 1 pick odds: 10.6 percent
Top-3 pick odds: 30.1 percent
Most likely spot: No. 5

Key trades: Philly will get the Lakers' pick if it falls outside the top three. They also have the rights to swap picks with Sacramento inside the top 10.

Whom Philadelphia should draft with the ...

No. 1 pick: Markelle Fultz
No. 2 pick: Lonzo Ball
No. 3 pick: Malik Monk

Most likely pick: Malik Monk | G | Fr. | Kentucky

With the news that Joel Embiid is out for the season, the Sixers are likely to improve their lottery odds by the end of the season. Their best hope is that either they or the Kings win the No. 1 pick (initiating that pick swap) and that the Lakers slip from No. 2 to No. 4.

They could use two high lottery picks in this draft to put together an explosive backcourt. The combination of Fultz and Monk is especially intriguing. Adding two explosive scorers and ball handlers to a team with Ben Simmons and Embiid would finally give Sixers fans a team with real long-term championship potential.

Alternative pick: Jonathan Isaac | F | Fr. | Florida State

New Orleans Pelicans (31-51)
i

No. 1 pick odds: 6.3 percent
Top-3 pick odds: 21.0 percent
Most likely spot: No. 6

Key trade: New Orleans will send its first-round pick to Sacramento if it falls outside the top three (79 percent chance of keeping pick).

Whom New Orleans should draft with the ...

No. 1 pick: Lonzo Ball
No. 2 pick: Markelle Fultz
No. 3 pick: Malik Monk

Most likely pick (Kings): Jonathan Isaac | F | Fr. | Florida State

The Pelicans traded for DeMarcus Cousins with an eye toward grabbing the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. However, the early returns have been disappointing, and it looks as if the Pelicans might end up with a better shot at the lottery than the Kings probably thought.

If New Orleans lands in the top three, Ball, Fultz and Monk would all add an elite scorer or passer to a very frontcourt-heavy roster. It would be a godsend to the Pelicans, who really need an elite guard (sorry, Jrue Holiday) to pair with Cousins and Anthony Davis.

If the pick falls outside the top three, then the Kings grab this pick and get a shot at Isaac, a young forward who many scouts feel might have more upside than Brandon Ingram.

Alternative pick: Jayson Tatum | F | Fr. | Duke

New York Knicks (33-49)
i

No. 1 pick odds: 4.3 percent
Top-3 pick odds: 13.1 percent
Most likely spot: No. 7

Whom New York should draft with the ...

No. 1 pick: Lonzo Ball
No. 2 pick: Markelle Fultz
No. 3 pick: Malik Monk

Most likely pick: Jayson Tatum | F | Fr. | Duke

The Knicks desperately need to add an elite young talent next to Kristaps Porzingis. Landing Ball, Fultz or Monk would immediately bring a jolt of electricity to the Garden.

If they fall to No. 8, they could still end up with a guy who some scouts feel should be the No. 1 pick in the draft. Tatum does just about everything but shoot the 3. If he's the pick, expect the Carmelo Anthony trade rumors to go into full swing again this summer.

Alternative pick: De'Aaron Fox | PG | Fr. | Kentucky

Minnesota Timberwolves (33-49)
i

No. 1 pick odds: 2.8 percent
Top-3 pick odds: 12.3 percent
Most likely spot: No. 8

Whom Minnesota should draft with the ...

No. 1 pick: Markelle Fultz
No. 2 pick: Lonzo Ball
No. 3 pick: Malik Monk

Most likely pick: Lauri Markkanen | PF | Fr. | Arizona

The Wolves are loaded with young talent, and if they strike gold in the lottery again, it's going to send shivers down the spine of every other Western Conference team. The Wolves shopped Ricky Rubio heavily at the trade deadline and wouldn't hesitate to take Fultz or Ball if they're available. Yes, they drafted Kris Dunn with their pick last year, but Dunn doesn't have the upside or shooting ability of Fultz or Ball.

If they fall to No. 7, Markkanen would be an interesting choice. He's the prototypical NBA stretch-4 with an elite perimeter game. He'd be a very nice fit next to Karl-Anthony Towns.

Alternative pick: Harry Giles | PF | Fr. | Duke

Sacramento Kings (34-48)
i

No. 1 pick odds*: 0 percent
Top-3 pick odds: 9.0 percent
Most likely spot: No. 9

Key trades*: The Sixers have the rights to swap picks with the Kings inside the top 10. If the Kings' pick falls out of the top 10, it will go to the Bulls (71.2 percent chance to keep pick). Sacramento will also get the Pelicans' pick if it falls outside the top three.

Whom Sacramento should draft with the ...

No. 1 pick*: N/A (Pick swap with Philly)
No. 2 pick: Lonzo Ball
No. 3 pick: Markelle Fultz

Most likely pick: De'Aaron Fox | PG | Fr. | Kentucky

The Kings fully expect that the loss of Cousins at the trade deadline should improve their lottery odds. Of course, if those odds improve too much, the Sixers could steal their top pick.

If Sacramento does land a top-three pick, adding a young point guard to the roster would fill the team's biggest need. And if the Kings land at No. 9, Fox would be a nice consolation prize. He's the fastest guard in the draft and just a jump shot away from being a top-five pick.

Alternative pick: Harry Giles | PF | Fr. | Duke
 

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Dallas Mavericks (34-48)
i

No. 1 pick odds: 1.0 percent
Top-3 pick odds: 8.4 percent
Most likely spot: No. 10

Key trade: Dallas will send its pick to Philadelphia if it falls outside the top 18 (greater than 99.9 percent chance to keep pick).

Whom Dallas should draft with the ...

No. 1 pick: Lonzo Ball
No. 2 pick: Markelle Fultz
No. 3 pick: Malik Monk

Most likely pick: Frank Ntilikina | PG | France

The Mavs let Deron Williams walk after the trade deadline, and while they like Yogi Ferrell, his upside isn't in the same league with Ball or Fultz, who both would immediately be the best player on the Mavs' roster.

If they draft at No. 10, Ntilikina is a real sleeper to watch. The Mavs have the best international scouting department in the league. Were Ntilikina playing college ball, he'd probably go higher than this.

Alternative pick: De'Aaron Fox | PG | Fr. | Kentucky

Portland Trail Blazers (35-47)
i

No. 1 pick odds: 0.8 percent
Top-3 pick odds: 4.8 percent
Most likely spot: No. 11

Whom Portland should draft with the ...

No. 1 pick: Markelle Fultz
No. 2 pick: Lonzo Ball
No. 3 pick: Josh Jackson

Most likely pick: Harry Giles | PF | Fr. | Duke

The odds of the Blazers landing a top-three pick are slim, but if they do, don't be surprised if they draft a point guard despite already having two elite ball handlers in Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum on the roster.

If they slide to No. 11, Giles could end up being the steal of the draft. Many NBA scouts had him pegged as the best prospect in his class before an ACL surgery sidelined him. He has looked very rusty in the games he has played for Duke so far, but when fully healthy he has superstar-type talent.

Alternative pick: Miles Bridges | F | Fr. | Michigan State

Milwaukee Bucks (37-45)
i

No. 1 pick odds: 0.7 percent
Top-3 pick odds: 2.9 percent
Most likely spot: No. 12

Whom Milwaukee should draft with the ...

No. 1 pick: Lonzo Ball
No. 2 pick: Markelle Fultz
No. 3 pick: Dennis Smith

Most likely pick: Robert Williams | PF | Fr. | Texas A&M

Jason Kidd has struggled to find a point guard he can live with in Milwaukee, and both Ball -- who sometimes draws comparisons to Kidd -- and Fultz would be a huge gift to the Bucks. Can you imagine that team with Giannis Antetokounmpo and Ball on it?

Later in the draft the pickings will start to get slimmer, but Williams' athleticism and defensive presence make him an intriguing prospect down the road. He can be an explosive game-changer on the defensive end.

Alternative pick: Miles Bridges | F | Fr. | Michigan State

Miami Heat (38-44)
i

No. 1 pick odds: 0.6 percent
Top-3 pick odds: 2.3 percent
Most likely spot: No. 13

Whom Miami should draft with the ...

No. 1 pick: Lonzo Ball
No. 2 pick: Markelle Fultz
No. 3 pick: Malik Monk

Most likely pick: Miles Bridges | F | Fr. | Michigan State

The Heat would love to add a potential star like Ball or Fultz to the mix, but if they can't, some scouts feel Bridges is the most underrated player in this class.

He's strong, athletic and versatile with the ability to rebound and shoot the 3. He'd be a great long-term fit in Miami.

Alternative pick: Ivan Rabb | PF | So. | Cal

Charlotte Hornets (38-44)
i

No. 1 pick odds: 0.5 percent
Top-3 pick odds: 2.1 percent
Most likely spot: No. 14

Whom Charlotte should draft with the ...

No. 1 pick: Markelle Fultz
No. 2 pick: Lonzo Ball
No. 3 pick: Malik Monk

Most likely pick: Terrance Ferguson | SG |Australia

Kemba Walker just made his first All-Star team, but that won't scare away the Hornets from drafting a bigger point guard with better shooting ability and a higher ceiling. The fact that Ball and especially Fultz can play off the ball is a bonus.

Ferguson skipped college and jumped straight into pro ball in Australia. He didn't necessarily wow anyone with his play there this year, but his combination of athleticism and shooting ability still make him an attractive prospect for a team like Charlotte.

Alternative pick: Justin Patton | C | Fr. | Creighton
 

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10 biggest freak athletes at NFL combine

As 2017 NFL draft prospects engage in drills and tests at the scouting combine in Indianapolis this week, let's take a look at which players already have the extreme skills and athleticism that will turn heads. Here are the 10 biggest freak athletes who are sure to show off their athletic prowess during combine workouts:

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Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M
In 2014, 6-foot-5, 266-pound defensive lineman Jadeveon Clowney ran a 4.53 40-yard dash, recorded a vertical jump of 37.5 inches and had a broad jump of 10 feet, 4 inches at the combine before the Texans drafted him first overall. To provide some perspective, all of those numbers are better than the five-year combine averages for wide receivers. Garrett, who is listed at 6-5 and 261 pounds, has the athleticism to rival and potentially surpass that performance. Those are lofty expectations but realistic when you consider the explosive get-off, impressive closing speed and flexibility he shows on tape. He'll also have an opportunity to show teams he moves well enough in space and line up as a 3-4 OLB during position-specific drills.


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David Njoku, TE, Miami
Njoku is an explosive pass-catching tight end who possesses rare run-after-the-catch ability on tape. A former high school high jump champion (7 feet, 1 inch is his personal best), he is expected to check in at around 6-4 and 240 pounds, clock in the 4.5's with the 40-yard dash and jump through the roof during the on-field testing. Njoku is one of the youngest players in the class -- he turns 21 in May -- and still needs some polishing as a route runner and can improve as a blocker. However, he carries one of the highest ceilings of any 2017 prospect and will have a chance to help his cause as a potential first-round pick if he can deliver on the type of workout he is expected to have in Indianapolis.

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Obi Melifonwu, S, Connecticut
Melifonwu will look to continue to take advantage of the postseason process by building off a strong Senior Bowl performance. At 6-foot-4 and 219 pounds, he was one of the best in show during the weigh-ins in Mobile, Alabama, with a frame comparable to Seahawks safety Kam Chancellor. Melifonwu is an explosive athlete who is expected to post impressive test numbers, including reports that he could run in the 4.4 range with his 40-yard dash. The former cornerback has a chance to prove he is more than just a box safety at the next level and solidify a Day 2 grade.

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Adoree' Jackson, CB, USC
An All-American track star at USC, Jackson's career best in the 100 meters is an impressive 10.38 seconds, and he's a candidate to run the fastest 40-yard dash. It's also worth noting he won the Pac-12 long jump title in 2016. Obviously there's no running start for the broad jump, but it gauges a player's explosiveness, and there's no shortage of burst on tape for Jackson. He's a quick-twitch athlete who explodes out of his pedal and closes quickly when the ball is in the air. Finally, Jackson has long been expected to shine during workouts, so a strong performance will check the boxes more than it will help him. Impressing teams during interviews, on the other hand, would give his stock a boost.

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Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU
Fournette's decision to sit out LSU's bowl game to prep for the combine means he should be in excellent shape and well-prepared to put on a show, starting with the 40-yard dash. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 235 pounds, he may have shed some weight to help boost his speed, so it will be interesting to see his current weight. With the weight in mind, Fournette is expected to run in the low 4.4s or 4.3s, and keep in mind that 213 pounds is the average weight for running back prospects at the past five combines. For a little perspective from a physical standpoint, Ezekiel Elliott ran a 4.47 at 225 pounds last year. Also, the medical checkup will be critical for Fournette considering teams want to make sure the ankle injury that slowed him last season is not a long-term issue. In addition, keep an eye on how well he catches the ball during position-specific drills.


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Marlon Humphrey, CB, Alabama
Humphrey was a sprinter and hurdler on the Alabama track team while redshirting for the football team in 2014 and is expected to open eyes during the on-field testing and drill work. He is one of the more polarizing prospects among inner scouting circles. On one hand, he is a big and physical cornerback -- expected to measure in around 6-foot-1 and 200 pounds -- with quality size and speed for his size. However, Humphrey didn't always play to his measureables on tape, particularly locating and defending the ball in contested situations. That said, verifying his size, putting up big test numbers and showing solid tracking and playing the ball during the drill portion of the workout will go a long way in helping make the argument that he's a potential top-40 prospect when teams set their final boards.

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Josh Jones, S, NC State
Jones has recently created some buzz as teams started to get into their full underclassman evaluations after the bowl season. Listed at 6-foot-1 and 215 pounds, he is a versatile and physical safety who has an explosive burst that can be viewed on the Louisville tape, in which he runs down QB Lamar Jackson from across the field. Jones has drawn comparisons to T.J. Greene (the Colts' second-round pick in 2016) who ran in the mid 4.3's and recorded a vertical jump of 35.5 inches and a broad jump of 10 feet, 9 inches last year. If Jones can post similar numbers, he has a chance to be one of the bigger winners coming out of Indianapolis and potentially get into the second-round range in what is shaping up to be a deep safety class.

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Takk McKinley, DE, UCLA
A track star who made it to the California state meets in the 100- and 200-meter events his junior and senior seasons of high school, McKinley once ran the 100 in 10.58 seconds, and he remains fast despite adding weight. In fact, he ran a 4.52 40 at 245 pounds in the spring of 2016, and that closing speed regularly shows up on tape. In addition, McKinley recently posted on Twitter a video of himself benching 230 pounds 24 times, which is an impressive feat considering he has 34-inch arms and he's expected to undergo shoulder surgery following the combine. Like Garrett, McKinley will have an opportunity to show teams what he can do in space during position-specific drills, and like Fournette, the medical exam is that much more important.

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Taywan Taylor, WR, Western Kentucky
There are a couple of receivers to consider here in Washington's John Ross and Louisiana Tech's Carlos Henderson, who are both candidates to run sub-4.4s in the 40-yard dash. Plus, Taylor measured 5-foot-11 and 198 pounds at the Senior Bowl, so he doesn't have a great frame. However, Taylor has an above-average catching radius for his size with his arm length (32 3/8 inches) and he's expected to record a vertical jump close to 40 inches. Finally, Taylor's explosive burst is one of his best traits on tape; look for that explosiveness to show up in the broad jump in which he could jump in the same range as Julio Jones (11 feet, 3 inches) did in 2011.

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Charles Harris, OLB, Missouri
Harris ended the 2016 season with a career-high nine sacks, including 5.5 over his final four games. A former high school basketball standout, scouts are anticipating the explosiveness Harris shows on tape to translate to the on-field testing portion, particularly with his jumps and 10-yard split. Harris has room to add bulk and get stronger, and recording a solid number in the bench test would help his cause as well. It is a deep edge-rusher class, and Harris will have a chance to gain some momentum with a strong showing that could propel him into the back half of the first-round range.
 

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Save that money: Baseball's best contracts

One of my favorite annual features to put together is our list of best and worst contracts in baseball. You don't see the impact of money directly on the field during the season, but there's no denying it has been a crucial aspect of how individual teams are constructed for nearly a half century. Just like most kids have that moment when they realize Santa Claus doesn't exist, every young baseball fan has that instant when a belief that everybody on the field is playing just for the love of the game, and the love of their team's city, can be cruelly shattered.


We're doing one thing slightly different this year. This time around, we're limiting the contracts to those signed when the player has some leverage, covering players who sign their deals while arbitration-eligible and those that extend into at least one free-agent season. That way, we can see who scored the best contracts when they had a little more juice at the bargaining table.

Each player's deal is ranked based on the difference between the wins the team is paying for and the wins the team is projected to get, as predicted by the ZiPS projection system.

The best
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10. Jung Ho Kang, Pittsburgh Pirates
Original contract: 4 years, $11 million
Guarantee remaining: $6 million
Surplus value: +7.0 wins


MLB has been signing the best players from Nippon Professional Baseball who wish to come to the United States for a generation now, but bringing in players from the Korean Baseball Organization League (KBO League) is a fairly recent trend. There have long been some players from Korea, but typically as young prospects. The veterans who came over with KBO experience, such as Dae-Sung Koo and Chang-Yong Lim, had to first prove themselves in NPB before getting MLB contracts. Hyun-Jin Ryu was the first exception, coming over straight from KBO's Hanwha Eagles, and he had a great deal of success before injury issues.

The Pirates brought over Kang, coming off a near 1.200 OPS and 40 homers for the 2014 Nexen Heroes, to a low-risk, high-reward contract. Spending $11 million isn't much, but Kang earned it before his rookie season even finished, and his defense at third (and even short) was better than initially advertised. Signed for two years at $5.75 million, it's quite likely his $5.5 million option gets picked up rather than the $250,000 buyout. He'd rank even higher if ZiPS was projecting more at-bats, but his projections take a hit because of the time lost after his 2015 collision with Chris Coghlan that broke his leg and tore his MCL. Even with a likely suspension for his DUI arrest in South Korea, he's easily worth the money.


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9. Danny Duffy, Kansas City Royals
Original contract: 5 years, $65 million
Guarantee remaining: $65 million
Surplus value: +7.6 wins


Yes, there's always a risk involved for a starting pitcher who has thrown 150 innings exactly once in his professional career. But here's the thing: Just a year from free agency, the Royals aren't paying Danny Duffy as if 2016 was his baseline expectation going forward, they're paying what you'd expect to pay a 1.5-WAR pitcher in free agency.

Duffy has hit 1.5 WAR in each of his past three seasons by Baseball-Reference, but the important point to note is that his upside is much, much higher. If he does repeat his 2016 season over and over again, it's the steal of the century. ZiPS isn't going to go that far, but it does project him to be the Royals' best starter for a long time and good enough to make this list.

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8. Salvador Perez, Kansas City Royals
Original contract: 5 years, $52.5 million
Guarantee remaining: $52.5 million
Surplus value: +7.8 wins


Perez's original five-year, $7 million guarantee from 2012-2016 was even better. It's a long contract for a now-veteran catcher, but the reality is that Perez will be only 31 years old at its conclusion, so it's likely that his knees hold out -- the question mark for any veteran catcher -- until it's time to negotiate his next deal.

Perez has flaws as a player. He's a below-average pitch framer and his plate discipline is worse than mine when tacos are involved. But he's still above average offensively for a catcher thanks to his ability to drive the ball when he does happen to make contact and his other defensive virtues. The contract he signs after the 2021 season in free agency will probably be a boondoggle, but not this one.

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7. Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians
Original contract: 4 years, $22 million
Guarantee remaining: $15.8 million
Surplus value: +8.8 wins


At $22 million, the Indians got Carrasco at a price that, if he worked out, the team would reap tens of millions dollars more in performance than they were paying for. It also wasn't necessarily a guarantee at the time, with Carrasco yet to pitch a full season in the rotation since his 2012 Tommy John surgery.

Now that he's a top-of-the-rotation pitcher, if a sabermetric stat could do a victory lap, FIP would take one with Carrasco's 3.49 ERA over 2015-16 more reflecting his pre-2015 FIP (3.75) than his pre-2015 ERA (4.30). ZiPS projects that Carrasco's two option years for 2019 and 2010 (priced at $9 and $9.5 million) easily will be worth picking up.

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6. Kenta Maeda, Los Angeles Dodgers
Original contract: 8 years, $25 million
Guarantee remaining: $21 million
Surplus value: +9.3 wins


Maeda signed a rather novel contract with the Dodgers before the 2016 season, taking a long deal with a relatively low amount of guaranteed cash but with a breathtaking number of roster and playing-time incentives that could make the deal worth $106.2 million. ZiPS projects that if you simulated reality a million times, Maeda would end up making $66 million on average, so that's what his projections are compared to for value. That's still incredible value for a pitcher with a 2.39 ERA in about 1,500 NPB innings who has never missed serious time because of injury.

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5. Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants
Original contract: 6 years, $75 million
Guarantee remaining: $68 million
Surplus value: +9.4 wins


Crawford has been one of the game's best stories over the past half decade, having one of the more unusual growth patterns around -- not just hitting his peak, but legitimately moving up several tiers in his prime. Crawford has never had a bad season in the majors, but the 2012-13 version was a league-average-ish player, an OK-hitting shortstop who could field a little. He has become a legitimate star as a real Gold Glove-worthy shortstop who just led the league in triples without being a speed demon, simply by making good use of AT&T Park's deep outfield crevices. Crawford got his first MVP votes in 2016, finishing 12th. Even with that, he may still be underrated in the public eye.

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4. Kyle Seager, Seattle Mariners
Original contract: 7 years, $100 million
Guarantee remaining: $85 million
Surplus value: +9.5 wins


Speaking of underrated stars, Seager already has generated 24.3 WAR in five full seasons in the majors. As a free agent, he would likely be looking at $150 million and more in free agency. The Mariners have him locked up for what would be roughly half that, through his age-34 season if all the options are picked up. Both Kyle and his brother Corey are in the top 50 for rest-of-career WAR for position players in ZiPS.

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3. Wil Myers, San Diego Padres
Original contract: 6 years, $83 million
Guarantee remaining: $83 million
Surplus value: +10.0 wins


One of the big differences in how big-money deals end up is the age of the player in question. There's a real difference between signing a player at age 25 and signing them at age 30. Players age differently, but on average, the older the player, the more risk involved in the long term, especially toward the end of the contract.

There's no better example of this than Alex Rodriguez's contracts. For the 10 years that covered A-Rod's original 10-year, $252 million contract, he was projected by ZiPS to be roughly worth that deal in large part because he'd be only 34, not 38 or 39, at the end of it. And essentially, he was worth it. But the 10-year, $275 million contract that ran from 2008 through this upcoming season? Disastrous.

Now, Myers isn't at A-Rod's level as a player, but the same principle applies. If he were starting his age-31 season, this contract would likely be a poor performer, Myers not being enough of a player to hold serious value through his decline phase. But going into his age-26 season? It's a good enough bet to place third here.

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2. Ender Inciarte, Atlanta Braves
Original contract: 5 years, $30.525 million
Guarantee remaining: $30.525 million
Surplus value: +14.2 wins


The truly sad thing about the Shelby Miller trade -- from Arizona's point of view -- is that even if Dansby Swanson, one of baseball's top prospects, decided to walk away and become a monk in the mountains of Tibet in the next month, the Braves still made an incredibly lopsided trade in their favor.

Inciarte isn't likely to hit 20 home runs or anything, but he gets on base at a decent clip, hits his share of triples and, most important, plays legit Gold Glove-caliber defense in center field. ZiPS projects Inciarte to be worth 18 WAR over the next six seasons; paying $30.525 million for 18 WAR is a better deal than you get offered by fake Nigerian princes in your email.

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1. Carlos Martinez, St. Louis Cardinals
Original contract: 5 years, $51 million
Guarantee remaining: $51 million
Surplus value: +17.3 wins


With the option years, the Cardinals have Carlos Martinez locked up through the 2023 season if they want, giving the team an impressive four years of control for four years past when C-Mart would have hit free agency.

What is there to say really? Martinez is already an All-Star-level pitcher, one ZiPS gives a chance every year of bumping up into Cy Young contender territory. ZiPS projects 27.5 WAR from Martinez through 2023, and the pitcher with the sixth-most WAR remaining in his career. Usually, $51 million gets you the Orioles' Ubaldo Jimenez, not this. There's always a risk of injury with a pitcher, but ZiPS takes that into consideration, or the projection would be even more sky-high.
 

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New predictions: W-L record, standings for every NBA team

Who's going to make the playoffs? How will the battle for No. 1 in each conference shake out? And how will the draft lottery races finish?

Trades and injuries have changed the landscape of the NBA in a way that's challenging for traditional statistical projections to capture. To try to measure the current talent of all 30 teams, I put together projections using the multiyear, predictive version of ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) and my best estimate at what rotations will look like going forward.

Then I used those projections to simulate the final six weeks of the regular season 1,000 times. Let's check out the results, starting in the East, ranked by predicted final win total.






Eastern Conference


1. Cleveland Cavaliers: 55-27

Despite injuries to Kevin Love (projected to play 11 games, but with limited minutes) and J.R. Smith (14 games), the Cavaliers -- with the additions of Andrew Bogut and Deron Williams -- still rate as the best team in the East for the remainder of the season. They earn the No. 1 seed in more than 75 percent of all simulations.

2. Boston Celtics: 53-29

Wednesday's win over Cleveland slightly boosted the Celtics' chances of claiming the top spot in the East, but second is still the far likelier outcome.

3. Washington Wizards: 49-33

Kyle Lowry being sidelined is very helpful for the Wizards, who beat the Raptors on Wednesday in Toronto and are now the favorites to claim the third seed -- and to potentially avoid Cleveland until the conference finals. They finish third -- or higher -- in about three-quarters of simulations.

4. Toronto Raptors: 47-35

Without Lowry and his strong RPM, Toronto has a weaker projection over the remainder of the season, as its home loss to Washington following a 3-0 start to the second half of the campaign reminded everyone.

5. Atlanta Hawks: 44-38

RPM has long been skeptical of the Hawks, but perhaps with better reason this year than their record indicates. While Atlanta is eight games above .500, the team's minus-0.7 point differential is along the lines of RPM's lottery forecast and a better predictor of how the Hawks are likely to play going forward.

6. Indiana Pacers: 42-40

Though the Pacers too are projected as a below-.500 team going forward, they've built enough of a cushion that they make the playoffs in more than 80 percent of simulations.

7. Chicago Bulls: 41-41

Swapping a package headlined by Taj Gibson for one centered around struggling second-year guard Cameron Payne causes Chicago's projection to take a hit. However, the Bulls have a three-game cushion on the nearest lottery challenger, so they still make it in about three-quarters of simulations.

8. Detroit Pistons: 40-42

RPM projections were high on the Pistons before the season and remain so, despite a disappointing campaign to date. With a one-game lead for the eighth seed, Detroit makes the playoffs in better than 60 percent of simulations.



9. Milwaukee Bucks: 39-43

Amazingly, for the final six weeks of action, the 26-33 Bucks have the East's fourth-best projection by RPM. Milwaukee has played better than its record, having scored essentially even with opponents this season, and the return of Khris Middleton outweighs the loss of Jabari Parker in terms of RPM.

10. Miami Heat: 38-44

The Heat's recent surge hasn't particularly impressed RPM, which still sees Miami as the below-.500 team it has been over the course of the season. So the Heat make the playoffs in less than a quarter of simulations.

11. Charlotte Hornets: 38-44

Like the Bucks, the Hornets project to be better going forward than they have been, largely because of Cody Zeller's return to the lineup. Charlotte has lost nearly as many of the 20 games Zeller has missed (3-17) as of the 41 games he has played (23-18). So despite being three games back of a playoff spot, the Hornets still make it in nearly a quarter of simulations.

12. New York Knicks: 34-48

Without Joakim Noah and Brandon Jennings, the Knicks figure to struggle for the remainder of the season, as they compete more for lottery positioning than a playoff spot.

13. Orlando Magic: 30-52

Orlando's projection doesn't account for players sitting out down the stretch, which could be a possibility now that the playoffs are unrealistic for the Magic. That might drop Orlando's projection further.

14. Philadelphia 76ers: 29-53

Now that Joel Embiid is officially out for the season, the Sixers are in the mix with the Nets and Lakers for RPM's worst projection going forward.

15. Brooklyn Nets: 18-64

Jeremy Lin's solid RPM suggests the Nets should be more competitive after the All-Star break, so long as he stays healthy, matching their nine wins before the break on average in far fewer games.



East RPM Projections
Team Off* Def* Net Wins
1. Cleveland 3.8 0.5 4.4 54.9
2. Boston 3.2 0.6 3.8 52.8
3. Washington 1.4 0.6 2.0 48.8
4. Toronto 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 46.5
5. Atlanta -2.3 0.9 -1.4 43.9
6. Indiana -0.8 0.6 -0.2 41.5
7. Chicago -0.6 -0.1 -0.7 41.0
8. Detroit -0.1 1.0 0.9 40.2
9. Milwaukee 1.1 0.5 1.7 38.4
10. Miami -1.1 0.4 -0.8 37.7
11. Charlotte 0.3 1.0 1.3 37.6
12. New York -1.4 -1.7 -3.1 33.8
13. Orlando -2.4 -2.5 -4.9 30.3
14. Philadelphia -4.9 -1.7 -6.6 29.3
15. Brooklyn -5.2 -1.7 -6.9 17.8
*Projected points better than league average per 100 possessions
 

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Western Conference


1. Golden State Warriors: 64-18

As noted in Wednesday's piece evaluating the impact of Kevin Durant's injury, the Warriors are still solid favorites to finish with the No. 1 seed in the West. But after losing a second consecutive game Thursday in Chicago, Golden State now slips to No. 2 in more than a quarter of simulations.

2. San Antonio Spurs: 62-20

The Spurs are a challenging team to project because it's unclear how aggressively they'll pursue the No. 1 seed instead of resting their veterans for the playoffs. Given coach Gregg Popovich's track record, I'm guessing rest will take priority, one reason the Spurs are unlikely to catch Golden State.

3. Houston Rockets: 55-27

Thanks to the addition of Lou Williams and the extent of Durant's injury, the Rockets are projected to be nearly as good as the West's leaders going forward. Still, Houston is far enough back that the team finishes in the top two in less than 2 percent of simulations.

4. LA Clippers: 49-33
5. Utah Jazz: 49-33


The Clippers and Jazz are currently a half-game apart in the standings and have virtually identical projections, so expect their battle for home-court advantage in the first round to go down to the wire.

6. Oklahoma City Thunder: 46-36
7. Memphis Grizzlies: 46-36


Because the Grizzlies and Thunder don't project as well as the Clippers and Jazz, they're more likely to battle each other for sixth and seventh in seeding than stay in the race for fourth and fifth. RPM gives Oklahoma City a marginal advantage by virtue of a superior projection.

8. Denver Nuggets: 38-44

Surprisingly, the Nuggets project to play as well as the Thunder and better than Memphis for the remainder of the season. At this point, Denver makes the playoffs in more than half of simulations.

9. Portland Trail Blazers: 37-45

The loss of Ed Davis to season-ending shoulder surgery had little impact on Portland's projection, which actually went up slightly because Meyers Leonard has a better predictive RPM than Davis (who was playing sparingly). So the Blazers are still in the best position to take advantage should the Nuggets stumble.

10. New Orleans Pelicans: 35-47

This projection isn't quite as lofty as the 51-win pace I mentioned for the Pelicans after they acquired DeMarcus Cousins. Omri Casspi's injury hurts, as does accounting for the likelihood of Cousins missing more games due to suspensions for accumulating technical fouls. I projected two more of those over the rest of the season. Still, the bigger issue in the playoff picture is the four games New Orleans has to make up on Denver, while also passing four other teams in the standings. The Pelicans have the West's sixth-best remaining RPM projection but remain a distinct long shot to make the playoffs.

11. Minnesota Timberwolves: 35-47

Amazingly, after their 27-point win at Utah on Wednesday, the Timberwolves have a better point differential (minus-0.1 points per game) than the Nuggets and three playoff teams in the East. However, as John Schuhmann of NBA.com noted earlier this week, Minnesota faces the league's toughest remaining schedule and won't likely get all that close to .500.

12. Dallas Mavericks: 34-48

RPM isn't buying Yogi Ferrell's hot streak. His minus-2.6 predictive RPM is a big reason the Mavericks have the West's fourth-worst projection for the rest of the season.

13. Sacramento Kings: 32-50

After beating the Nuggets in their first game without Cousins, the Kings have dropped three in a row at home. RPM forecasts more of the same, as Sacramento has the NBA's fourth-worst projection with a makeshift post-trade lineup.

14. Phoenix Suns: 28-54

The best of the worst teams, the Suns have a better March-April projection the rest of the way than four teams with better records than them, including the Lakers in the West.

15. Los Angeles Lakers: 26-56

Because their projection is tied with the Nets' for the worst in the NBA over the remainder of the season, the Lakers enter the lottery in the second spot in better than 60 percent of simulations, improving their chances of keeping a pick that is protected for the top three.



West RPM Projections
Team Off* Def* Net Wins
1. Golden State 4.0 2.3 6.3 64.2
2. San Antonio 1.9 4.4 6.3 61.9
3. Houston 6.4 -0.6 5.8 55.1
4. LA Clippers 2.6 1.2 3.8 49.3
5. Utah 1.2 2.9 4.1 49.2
6. Oklahoma City 0.8 0.4 1.2 46.4
7. Memphis -0.7 0.8 0.1 46.3
8. Denver 3.5 -2.5 0.9 38.4
9. Portland 0.0 0.2 0.2 36.6
10. New Orleans 0.5 1.2 1.7 34.7
11. Minnesota 0.3 -1.0 -0.7 34.5
12. Dallas -1.6 -0.6 -2.1 34.1
13. Sacramento -3.7 -2.5 -6.2 31.6
14. Phoenix -2.1 -2.0 -4.1 27.5
15. L.A. Lakers -3.9 -3.0 -6.9 25.7
*Projected points better than league average per 100 possessions
 
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