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Mock Draft 3.0: Top draft picks for Lakers, Celtics, 76ers and more
We're halfway through the NBA season and moving toward the end of the college basketball regular season, which means it's time for the third full mock for the 2017 NBA draft.
It's our best stab at a full first-round mock -- assuming every eligible prospect who has yet to state his intentions on the draft declares -- after taking into account team needs and conversations with NBA scouts and general managers.
We'll be using ESPN's Basketball Power Index (BPI) to project the order for Mock Draft 3.0.
1. Boston Celtics (via Nets)*
Markelle Fultz
Washington
Freshman
Guard
Celtics president Danny Ainge was in Seattle last week, watching Fultz go head-to-head with UCLA's Lonzo Ball and USC's De'Anthony Melton. Fultz was good but not spectacular in both games, but blame much of that on a lackluster roster at Washington.
The Celtics don't really need a point guard (they passed on Kris Dunn last year because of how loaded they are at the position). However, I don't think that will stop Boston from drafting Fultz.
2017 NBA draft
Get ready for Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball and the 2017 draft, with analysis from Chad Ford and other ESPN experts.
Big Board 3.0
Draft tiers for top freshmen
Who's the No. 1 pick?
Ford: Top 100 prospect rankings
Fultz has the size and natural scoring ability to play either the 1 or the 2. And his 3-point shooting should be especially appealing to the Celtics. In the two games Ainge watched, Fultz was 9-for-18 from 3.
Odds of winning lottery (if Brooklyn finishes with the worst record: 25 percent (Boston owns the rights to swap picks with Brooklyn.)
Projected record (Nets): 17-65
2. Los Angeles Lakers*
Lonzo Ball
UCLA
Freshman
Guard
The Lakers are up to a 44.4 percent chance of landing a top-three pick in the draft, according to BPI. That's up 10 percent from last month. So while the odds still favor the 76ers landing this pick, things are looking up for Lakers fans at this point.
Kevin Pelton and I recently went deep on what the Lakers would do if they got the No. 1 pick. Despite the solid play of second-year point guard D'Angelo Russell, both of us felt like they'd grab Ball or Fultz if they were on the board.
Ball is especially appealing to the Lakers. His elite passing ability combined with his unselfishness has the potential to make everyone on the roster better and allow head coach Luke Walton to play the sort of game at which the Warriors have excelled. Russell can swing to the 2 and, along with Ball and Jordan Clarkson, would give the Lakers three ballhandling guards.
Odds of winning lottery: 19.9 percent (Sixers get the Lakers' pick if it falls outside the top three)
Projected record: 27-55
3. Phoenix Suns
Josh Jackson
Kansas
Freshman
Forward
Jackson has been terrific in Big 12 play and has certainly made a strong case for being the No. 1 pick. I don't see teams taking him over Fultz or Ball, but it doesn't mean he's not worthy of such a high selection.
His motor and versatility on both offense and defense make him a high-impact player. And that hitchy jump shot is starting to fall with more consistency this year. He should be a great fit on the wing next to Devin Booker.
Odds of winning lottery: 15.6 percent
Projected record: 27-55
4. Philadelphia 76ers
Malik Monk
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard
Falling to No. 4, paired with the Lakers moving up to No. 2, is a bit of a worse-case scenario for the Sixers when it comes to the draft lottery. But this draft is so loaded, it won't stop them from landing another major building block.
Monk makes a lot of sense for the Sixers. Ben Simmons can play the point, so what they need is a dynamic scorer and shooter to pair with him. Monk is the most electric scorer to come into the draft in some time. He can be streaky, but when he gets going he's difficult to stop. He should be able to instantly transform the Sixers' offense.
Odds of winning lottery: 11.9 percent
Projected record: 27-55
5. Orlando Magic
Dennis Smith
NC State
Freshman
Guard
The Magic are a mess and could end up in a major front office and roster overhaul this summer. That makes projecting team needs a bit difficult.
There are several good options on the board for Orlando here, but Smith seems like a solid fit. Elfrid Payton is up and down and even when he's on, it wouldn't prohibit the Magic from grabbing Smith. Smith's elite athleticism and dynamic scoring ability should give the Magic some real offensive punch in their backcourt.
Odds of winning lottery: 8.8 percent
Projected record: 31-51
6. New Orleans Pelicans
Jonathan Isaac
FSU
Freshman
Forward
The Pelicans are still searching for the right players to complement Anthony Davis. Last year's lottery pick, Buddy Hield, was supposed to be that guy, but so far he has been one of the bigger disappointments from the 2016 draft. The Pelicans opted for now instead of the future -- which is why they passed on Jamal Murray -- and once again it has burned them.
I expect that at some point they have to take a more aggressive and risky swing, and drafting Isaac here represents that. Based on pure upside and talent, he may be a better overall prospect than Brandon Ingram. He just needs to add a lot of strength.
The Pelicans don't feel like they can afford to be patient. But Isaac is worth the wait.
Odds of winning lottery: 6.3 percent
Projected record: 31-51
7. Sacramento Kings*
Jayson Tatum
Duke
Freshman
Forward
The Kings will have a tough choice here if they land at No. 7. Drafting a young point guard has been a need for years. Rudy Gay is out for the season (and possibly longer) with a torn Achilles and can opt out of his contract in the summer, which would open up a hole at the 3. And none of the Kings' 4s are particularly effective. Basically, with the exception of DeMarcus Cousins, the whole roster is a wash.
Tatum probably has the rawest talent of the players left on the board. He's a prototypical NBA 3. If he can ever get his 3-point shot to fall with regularity, he'd be a steal this late in the draft.
Odds of winning lottery: 4.3 percent (If the Kings move ahead of Philadelphia in the lottery and are in the top 10, they swap spots with the Sixers. If Sacramento's pick falls outside the top 10, it will go to Chicago.)
Projected record: 33-49
8. Minnesota Timberwolves
Lauri Markkanen
Arizona
Freshman
Forward
Markkanen has slowly moved closer to Tier 2 alongside Jackson, Monk, Smith, Isaac and Tatum. The versatile 7-footer is shooting a crazy 49 percent from 3 on nearly five attempts per game.
A few scouts have made comparisons to Dirk Nowitzki. That seems a bit hyperbolic to me. There are some similarities there, especially with Markkanen's shooting ability for his height, but a Ryan Anderson comp might be more fitting.
Either way, getting another shooting big would be a nice fit for the Wolves -- if Tom Thibodeau can handle another player on the roster who doesn't play great defense.
Odds of winning lottery: 2.8 percent
Projected record: 33-49
9. Dallas Mavericks
Frank Ntilikina
France
Age: 18
Guard
The Mavs are about ready to hit a full reset. Nowitzki, 38, is aging along with much of the rest of the roster. Harrison Barnes seems like the only real true building block for the future (and, no, I'm not on the Yogi Ferrell future Hall of Famer bandwagon yet). That gives the Mavs a lot of flexibility when it comes to the draft.
Ntilikina is probably underrated right now. If he were in the NCAA, I think he'd be three to four spots higher in our Big Board rankings. Luckily for the Mavs, they have the best international scouting department in the league. They aren't sleeping on Ntilikina.
Odds of winning lottery: 1.7 percent
Projected record: 35-47
10. Miami Heat
Harry Giles
Duke
Freshman
Forward
Giles remains the trickiest prospect in the draft to evaluate. He's playing anywhere from seven to 18 minutes a game. When he plays 14 minutes or more, good things seem to happen in flashes. But overall, he still doesn't look like the Giles we saw in high school. It will be hard for teams to draft him over some of the less talented but less risky players above him.
I don't think the Heat (or Wolves, for that matter) should pass on him, though. His upside is as high as anyone's in the draft. He's shaking off a lot of rust right now, but when he gets fully healthy, he has superstar potential.
If the Heat can grab him here, they'll be thrilled. His work ethic and toughness fit Miami's culture perfectly. In a year or two, this pick could be the steal of the draft.
Odds of winning lottery: 1.1 percent
Projected record: 35-47
11. New York Knicks
De'Aaron Fox
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard
The depth of the draft remains ridiculous. Fox is having a terrific season for the Wildcats, he might be the fastest player in the draft and he can't crack the top 10.
The good news for Fox is that I think he'd be a great fit in New York. Both Derrick Rose and Brandon Jennings are free agents this summer. At some point the Knicks are going to have to transition from Carmelo Anthony's team to Kristaps Porzingis's team. Landing Fox would be a great way to start that transition.
Odds of winning lottery: 0.8 percent
Projected record: 35-47
12. Denver Nuggets
Miles Bridges
Michigan State
Freshman
Forward
Bridges' hot start has cooled a bit thanks to injuries and a tough season for the Spartans. He remains an appealing prospect who could be a nice long-term fit in Denver.
He's versatile, super athletic and has proven he can hit college 3s at a 41 percent clip. He's still turnover prone, but it's often because he's asked to do too much. Put him around young talents like Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray and I think he'll thrive.
Odds of winning lottery: 0.7 percent
Projected record: 36-46
13. Milwaukee Bucks
Justin Patton
Creighton
Freshman
Center
Patton has been on a meteoric rise and is the highest-rated center on our Big Board. The Bucks just dumped Miles Plumlee and have been looking to move Greg Monroe for a year.
Although Patton isn't the type of player who will come in and dominate right away for the Bucks, he's the long-term building block they've been looking for in the middle. He has tremendous upside and seems to just be scratching the surface on what he can do.
Odds of winning lottery: 0.6 percent
Projected record: 37-45
14. Detroit Pistons
Terrance Ferguson
Australia
Age: 19
Guard
The quality of the draft starts to slip a bit after those top 13 are off the board. There are several intriguing prospects left for teams to choose from, but here the draft dips to Tier 4 and it gets pretty wide open.
Ferguson's stint in Australia has been solid. He's not shooting the ball particularly well, but he has picked up valuable experience and teams like his long-term upside as a shooter. The Pistons could use depth behind Kentavious Caldwell-Pope at the 2.
Odds of winning lottery: 0.5 percent
Projected record: 40-42
15. Portland Trail Blazers
T.J. Leaf
UCLA
Freshman
Forward
Leaf is one of the most gifted scorers in college basketball. He has the full arsenal of skills on the offensive end of the court. Defensively, however, he's a bit of a liability and that causes him to slide just a bit down the draft board.
Al-Farouq Aminu, Meyers Leonard, Ed Davis and Noah Vonleh are all struggling in Portland right now. Leaf could be a long-term upgrade.
Projected record: 38-44
16. Charlotte Hornets
Robert Williams
Texas A&M
Freshman
Forward
Williams is raw, but his athleticism and defensive potential are off the charts.
The Hornets really don't have anyone on the roster who fits that mold anymore.
Projected record: 40-42
17. Chicago Bulls
Jarrett Allen
Texas
Freshman
Center
The Bulls are a mess and the rumblings that there could be major changes to the front office and team this summer appear well-founded. Trying to discern what's next for them, given the team chaos, is difficult.
Allen is a project, but an intriguing one. His defense is ahead of his offense right now, but over the course of the past few weeks he has been making major offensive strides as well.
He seems to be coming on at the right time and could be a nice backup to Robin Lopez for the next year or two while he adds strength and experience.
Projected record: 40-42
18. Indiana Pacers
Ivan Rabb
Cal
Sophomore
Forward
The Pacers don't have a lot of real depth behind Thaddeus Young at the 4. Rabb has probably moved from overrated to underrated this season.
While scouts are infatuated with the freshmen, Rabb is quietly averaging a double-double and has had 12 or more rebounds in eight of his past 11 games. He's still figuring things out and needs to add strength, but he's a phenomenal talent this late in the draft.
Projected record: 41-41
19. Atlanta Hawks
John Collins
Wake Forest
Sophomore
Forward
The Hawks' entire crop of power forwards is set to enter free agency this summer. Collins ranks second in the NCAA in player efficiency rating (PER).
He's crazy efficient around the basket, a great athlete and a very good defender. He might be the most underrated player on the board. I won't be surprised if he moves up significantly before the draft.
Projected record: 44-38
Harry Giles
Duke
Freshman
Forward
Giles remains the trickiest prospect in the draft to evaluate. He's playing anywhere from seven to 18 minutes a game. When he plays 14 minutes or more, good things seem to happen in flashes. But overall, he still doesn't look like the Giles we saw in high school. It will be hard for teams to draft him over some of the less talented but less risky players above him.
I don't think the Heat (or Wolves, for that matter) should pass on him, though. His upside is as high as anyone's in the draft. He's shaking off a lot of rust right now, but when he gets fully healthy, he has superstar potential.
If the Heat can grab him here, they'll be thrilled. His work ethic and toughness fit Miami's culture perfectly. In a year or two, this pick could be the steal of the draft.
Odds of winning lottery: 1.1 percent
Projected record: 35-47
11. New York Knicks
De'Aaron Fox
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard
The depth of the draft remains ridiculous. Fox is having a terrific season for the Wildcats, he might be the fastest player in the draft and he can't crack the top 10.
The good news for Fox is that I think he'd be a great fit in New York. Both Derrick Rose and Brandon Jennings are free agents this summer. At some point the Knicks are going to have to transition from Carmelo Anthony's team to Kristaps Porzingis's team. Landing Fox would be a great way to start that transition.
Odds of winning lottery: 0.8 percent
Projected record: 35-47
12. Denver Nuggets
Miles Bridges
Michigan State
Freshman
Forward
Bridges' hot start has cooled a bit thanks to injuries and a tough season for the Spartans. He remains an appealing prospect who could be a nice long-term fit in Denver.
He's versatile, super athletic and has proven he can hit college 3s at a 41 percent clip. He's still turnover prone, but it's often because he's asked to do too much. Put him around young talents like Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray and I think he'll thrive.
Odds of winning lottery: 0.7 percent
Projected record: 36-46
13. Milwaukee Bucks
Justin Patton
Creighton
Freshman
Center
Patton has been on a meteoric rise and is the highest-rated center on our Big Board. The Bucks just dumped Miles Plumlee and have been looking to move Greg Monroe for a year.
Although Patton isn't the type of player who will come in and dominate right away for the Bucks, he's the long-term building block they've been looking for in the middle. He has tremendous upside and seems to just be scratching the surface on what he can do.
Odds of winning lottery: 0.6 percent
Projected record: 37-45
14. Detroit Pistons
Terrance Ferguson
Australia
Age: 19
Guard
The quality of the draft starts to slip a bit after those top 13 are off the board. There are several intriguing prospects left for teams to choose from, but here the draft dips to Tier 4 and it gets pretty wide open.
Ferguson's stint in Australia has been solid. He's not shooting the ball particularly well, but he has picked up valuable experience and teams like his long-term upside as a shooter. The Pistons could use depth behind Kentavious Caldwell-Pope at the 2.
Odds of winning lottery: 0.5 percent
Projected record: 40-42
15. Portland Trail Blazers
T.J. Leaf
UCLA
Freshman
Forward
Leaf is one of the most gifted scorers in college basketball. He has the full arsenal of skills on the offensive end of the court. Defensively, however, he's a bit of a liability and that causes him to slide just a bit down the draft board.
Al-Farouq Aminu, Meyers Leonard, Ed Davis and Noah Vonleh are all struggling in Portland right now. Leaf could be a long-term upgrade.
Projected record: 38-44
16. Charlotte Hornets
Robert Williams
Texas A&M
Freshman
Forward
Williams is raw, but his athleticism and defensive potential are off the charts.
The Hornets really don't have anyone on the roster who fits that mold anymore.
Projected record: 40-42
17. Chicago Bulls
Jarrett Allen
Texas
Freshman
Center
The Bulls are a mess and the rumblings that there could be major changes to the front office and team this summer appear well-founded. Trying to discern what's next for them, given the team chaos, is difficult.
Allen is a project, but an intriguing one. His defense is ahead of his offense right now, but over the course of the past few weeks he has been making major offensive strides as well.
He seems to be coming on at the right time and could be a nice backup to Robin Lopez for the next year or two while he adds strength and experience.
Projected record: 40-42
18. Indiana Pacers
Ivan Rabb
Cal
Sophomore
Forward
The Pacers don't have a lot of real depth behind Thaddeus Young at the 4. Rabb has probably moved from overrated to underrated this season.
While scouts are infatuated with the freshmen, Rabb is quietly averaging a double-double and has had 12 or more rebounds in eight of his past 11 games. He's still figuring things out and needs to add strength, but he's a phenomenal talent this late in the draft.
Projected record: 41-41
19. Atlanta Hawks
John Collins
Wake Forest
Sophomore
Forward
The Hawks' entire crop of power forwards is set to enter free agency this summer. Collins ranks second in the NCAA in player efficiency rating (PER).
He's crazy efficient around the basket, a great athlete and a very good defender. He might be the most underrated player on the board. I won't be surprised if he moves up significantly before the draft.
Projected record: 44-38
20. Oklahoma City Thunder
OG Anunoby
Indiana
Sophomore
Forward
Anunoby underwent knee surgery last Tuesday and will miss the remainder of the season. NBA teams are still trying to discern the exact nature of the injury and what his rehab timetable will be.
Regardless, most teams still see him as a potential top-20 pick, even if he can't play his rookie season in the NBA. His combination of raw strength, power and the ability to stretch the floor make him an elite 3-and-D-type prospect. The Thunder have been searching for a long-term wing solution. If they're patient, Anunoby should deliver.
Projected record: 45-37
21. Washington Wizards
Zach Collins
Gonzaga
Freshman
Center
Marcin Gortat is still holding his own in the middle for the Wizards, but they'll need to start thinking about a long-term replacement and Collins is a very intriguing option.
He can be a modern 5 who stretches the floor and protects the rim. He has been one of the most efficient players in college basketball and ranks fourth in the NCAA in PER.
Projected record: 46-36
22. Denver Nuggets (via Grizzlies)*
Rodions Kurucs
Latvia
Age: 19
Forward
Kurucs is starting to get more playing time in Spain and has made the most of it, averaging 15 points in his past five games.
He's a project, but with two (likely) first-round picks, the Nuggets can afford to stash him overseas and wait for him to develop.
Projected record (Grizzlies): 47-35 (Denver will get Memphis' first-round pick if it falls outside the top five.)
23. Utah Jazz
Isaiah Hartenstein
Germany
Age: 18
Forward
The Jazz don't have any real needs right now, which gives them flexibility to either take a project or to find a player who can fit into the rotation someway.
While Hartenstein might be the least ready of the 4s we've ranked, there is a high ceiling with him. There aren't many 7-footers with his combination of athleticism, elite skill level and motor. He can be volatile, but he should be worth a gamble at this stage of the draft.
Projected record: 49-33
24. Toronto Raptors (via Clippers)*
Tyler Lydon
Syracuse
Sophomore
Forward
The Raptors' biggest weakness is at the 4, where rookie Pascal Siakam starts, but his play is below replacement level.
Lydon doesn't really have a true position, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. On offense, he has deep range on his jumper and can stretch the floor. On defense, he's an above-average shot-blocker. He needs to get stronger, but he looks like he'd be a good fit in Toronto.
Projected record (Clippers): 51-31 (Toronto will get L.A.'s first-round pick if it falls outside the lottery.)
25. Brooklyn Nets (via Celtics)*
Andrew Jones
Texas
Freshman
Guard
Losing out on players like Fultz and Ball must be heartbreaking for the Nets. At this point in the draft, they aren't likely to land anywhere near that caliber of player. But there are a lot of scouts who feel like Jones is a major sleeper.
He's an elite athlete, plays above the rim and has shown the ability to knock down the 3. He's really come along in Big 12 play. The Nets need to continue to swing for the fences with these late draft picks and hope they strike gold. Jones is a good bet down this low.
Projected record (Celtics): 51-31
26. Toronto Raptors
Ike Anigbogu
UCLA
Freshman
Center
This is the type of player Toronto GM Masai Ujiri loves: underrated and a little raw but with athleticism and toughness that should translate to the NBA.
Anigbogu doesn't play a huge role for UCLA, but his athleticism and shot-blocking have turned a lot of heads.
Projected record: 51-31
27. Portland Trail Blazers (via Cavaliers)
Donovan Mitchell
Louisville
Sophomore
Guard
Mitchell is having a strong sophomore season. He's one of the most athletic players in the draft and is emerging as a shooter.
He's a bit of a tweener, but he should be especially attractive to the Blazers if he can handle backup point guard duties, something he has been recently tasked with at Louisville.
Projected record (Cavaliers): 55-27 (Portland owns Cleveland's first-round pick.)
28. Houston Rockets
Luke Kennard
Duke
Sophomore
Guard
The Rockets really like to let the ball fly. They take and make more 3-pointers than any team in league, averaging a crazy 39 3s per game.
Kennard might be the best pure shooter in the draft this year. The Rockets can always find a home for a player like that.
Projected record: 56-26
29. San Antonio Spurs
Josh Hart
Villanova
Senior
Guard
Hart just feels like a Spurs player: solid, no ego and can hurt you in a number of ways, such as hitting 3s and getting to the basket.
The Spurs have Danny Green to do a lot of that, but with Manu Ginobili potentially in his last season, Hart could be a nice fit.
Projected record: 62-20
OG Anunoby
Indiana
Sophomore
Forward
Anunoby underwent knee surgery last Tuesday and will miss the remainder of the season. NBA teams are still trying to discern the exact nature of the injury and what his rehab timetable will be.
Regardless, most teams still see him as a potential top-20 pick, even if he can't play his rookie season in the NBA. His combination of raw strength, power and the ability to stretch the floor make him an elite 3-and-D-type prospect. The Thunder have been searching for a long-term wing solution. If they're patient, Anunoby should deliver.
Projected record: 45-37
21. Washington Wizards
Zach Collins
Gonzaga
Freshman
Center
Marcin Gortat is still holding his own in the middle for the Wizards, but they'll need to start thinking about a long-term replacement and Collins is a very intriguing option.
He can be a modern 5 who stretches the floor and protects the rim. He has been one of the most efficient players in college basketball and ranks fourth in the NCAA in PER.
Projected record: 46-36
22. Denver Nuggets (via Grizzlies)*
Rodions Kurucs
Latvia
Age: 19
Forward
Kurucs is starting to get more playing time in Spain and has made the most of it, averaging 15 points in his past five games.
He's a project, but with two (likely) first-round picks, the Nuggets can afford to stash him overseas and wait for him to develop.
Projected record (Grizzlies): 47-35 (Denver will get Memphis' first-round pick if it falls outside the top five.)
23. Utah Jazz
Isaiah Hartenstein
Germany
Age: 18
Forward
The Jazz don't have any real needs right now, which gives them flexibility to either take a project or to find a player who can fit into the rotation someway.
While Hartenstein might be the least ready of the 4s we've ranked, there is a high ceiling with him. There aren't many 7-footers with his combination of athleticism, elite skill level and motor. He can be volatile, but he should be worth a gamble at this stage of the draft.
Projected record: 49-33
24. Toronto Raptors (via Clippers)*
Tyler Lydon
Syracuse
Sophomore
Forward
The Raptors' biggest weakness is at the 4, where rookie Pascal Siakam starts, but his play is below replacement level.
Lydon doesn't really have a true position, but that's not necessarily a bad thing. On offense, he has deep range on his jumper and can stretch the floor. On defense, he's an above-average shot-blocker. He needs to get stronger, but he looks like he'd be a good fit in Toronto.
Projected record (Clippers): 51-31 (Toronto will get L.A.'s first-round pick if it falls outside the lottery.)
25. Brooklyn Nets (via Celtics)*
Andrew Jones
Texas
Freshman
Guard
Losing out on players like Fultz and Ball must be heartbreaking for the Nets. At this point in the draft, they aren't likely to land anywhere near that caliber of player. But there are a lot of scouts who feel like Jones is a major sleeper.
He's an elite athlete, plays above the rim and has shown the ability to knock down the 3. He's really come along in Big 12 play. The Nets need to continue to swing for the fences with these late draft picks and hope they strike gold. Jones is a good bet down this low.
Projected record (Celtics): 51-31
26. Toronto Raptors
Ike Anigbogu
UCLA
Freshman
Center
This is the type of player Toronto GM Masai Ujiri loves: underrated and a little raw but with athleticism and toughness that should translate to the NBA.
Anigbogu doesn't play a huge role for UCLA, but his athleticism and shot-blocking have turned a lot of heads.
Projected record: 51-31
27. Portland Trail Blazers (via Cavaliers)
Donovan Mitchell
Louisville
Sophomore
Guard
Mitchell is having a strong sophomore season. He's one of the most athletic players in the draft and is emerging as a shooter.
He's a bit of a tweener, but he should be especially attractive to the Blazers if he can handle backup point guard duties, something he has been recently tasked with at Louisville.
Projected record (Cavaliers): 55-27 (Portland owns Cleveland's first-round pick.)
28. Houston Rockets
Luke Kennard
Duke
Sophomore
Guard
The Rockets really like to let the ball fly. They take and make more 3-pointers than any team in league, averaging a crazy 39 3s per game.
Kennard might be the best pure shooter in the draft this year. The Rockets can always find a home for a player like that.
Projected record: 56-26
29. San Antonio Spurs
Josh Hart
Villanova
Senior
Guard
Hart just feels like a Spurs player: solid, no ego and can hurt you in a number of ways, such as hitting 3s and getting to the basket.
The Spurs have Danny Green to do a lot of that, but with Manu Ginobili potentially in his last season, Hart could be a nice fit.
Projected record: 62-20
30. Utah Jazz (via Warriors)*
Kostja Mushidi
Belgium
Age: 18
Guard
This is the second first-rounder for the Jazz, and I wouldn't be surprised if they go international.
Mushidi is a raw prospect who needs to improve his shooting, but his athleticism and scoring talent make him an attractive option. He ended up averaging 14.7 PPG for Germany in the FIBA Under-18 European Championships.
His 8-for-42 shooting from 3 is the big reason he isn't higher on our board.
Projected record (Warriors): 69-13 (Utah owns Golden State's first-round pick.)
BPI projected records current as of Feb. 5.
Kostja Mushidi
Belgium
Age: 18
Guard
This is the second first-rounder for the Jazz, and I wouldn't be surprised if they go international.
Mushidi is a raw prospect who needs to improve his shooting, but his athleticism and scoring talent make him an attractive option. He ended up averaging 14.7 PPG for Germany in the FIBA Under-18 European Championships.
His 8-for-42 shooting from 3 is the big reason he isn't higher on our board.
Projected record (Warriors): 69-13 (Utah owns Golden State's first-round pick.)
BPI projected records current as of Feb. 5.
Trade talk: Best deadline deals for Cavs, Bulls, Bucks, Pacers, Pistons
What can the Cavs do to satisfy LeBron and compete for another title? Should the Bulls trade Jimmy Butler? Is Paul George a trade candidate?
Our NBA Insiders answer the big questions for the five Central Division teams heading into the trade deadline.
Cleveland Cavaliers
We've heard LeBron's views. What are your views on what the Cavs should do at the trade deadline?
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: The Cavs are in a tough spot. Even before the injuries to Kevin Love and J.R. Smith, Cleveland needed to bolster its PG depth and its rotation of bigs. LeBron is not incorrect when he says the Cavs need help, as their success in June will depend heavily on how healthy and how fresh they are.
The problem lies in the assets they have available at their disposal to acquire talent. The Cavs have two trade exceptions in the $4 million-plus range that cannot be combined with each other or anything else to create a larger exception, so the list of options is limited.
As such, Cleveland is probably better suited to wait for the trade deadline to pass and then aggressively pursue talent that will eventually make it way to the waiver wire.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: I agree Cleveland is probably best off standing pat and waiting to add a 15th player (assuming Derrick Williams will stick beyond his 10-day contract, which seems inevitable) until after the trade deadline -- unless the Cavs can acquire a player for virtually nothing with one of their trade exceptions.
Not only is the buyout market more affordable, that also gives the Cavaliers more time to evaluate the most important need to fill with that 15th spot: another 7-footer or James' long-awaited "playmaker."
What trades should the Cavaliers consider?
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: Given Cleveland's cap situation, it's hard to see them using any of their trade exceptions to add a player at the deadline. The Cavs could still use a backup point guard, and I'm sure they'll add somebody before the postseason. I suspect it will come in the form of a veteran bought out after the deadline.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: It will never happen, but I'd trade Kyrie Irving. His market value is many times greater than the actual impact he has on the game. If the Cavs are serious about winning more championships, replacing their defensively anemic point guard with one who plays on both ends of the floor -- I'm thinking Chris Paul, George Hill or Mike Conley -- would be a giant step in the right direction.
Indiana Pacers
Do you agree with Larry Bird being unwilling to discuss a Paul George trade?
Elhassan: I'm generally not a fan of trading elite talent in its prime because you can't find complementary talent; that's hustling backward. The hardest thing to do in this league is secure legitimate franchise player-level talent. There's a lot less of those dudes walking around, and a lot more regular guys who, when put in the right circumstances, can help you win games.
So the Pacers don't need to trade Paul George, they need to do a better job of building their roster.
Pelton: I would always be willing to discuss a trade, just in case, but I think it's likely the Pacers will be able to make a better decision about a possible George trade this summer.
They'll know by then whether he has made an All-NBA team and become eligible for a designated-player extension. And they'll have a better sense of whether they can build a team around George that's capable of competing before he hits free agency.
What trades should the Pacers consider?
Doolittle: With the virtual disappearance of Monta Ellis, the Pacers have a clear need for a 2-guard and the flexibility to add someone signed beyond this season. The Lakers' Lou Williams makes a lot of sense and could be worth a first-round pick.
Indiana might as well go as far as it can this season, because if the Pacers can win a playoff series, they might actually look good to an impact free agent this summer. Paul George has friends, right?
Engelmann: The Pacers are in a solid position overall: They will probably make the playoffs, they don't have any toxic contracts and they don't owe future firsts to anyone.
One issue is that Jeff Teague and C.J. Miles, currently making a combined $13.5 million, will probably be looking for significant raises in the offseason. But dealing them now would derail Indiana's playoff hopes.
Ellis (-3.9 real plus-minus) and Al Jefferson (-1.8) are making too much money for their impact and probably wouldn't net the Pacers a lot in return if they tried to trade them.
Detroit Pistons
Would you trade Reggie Jackson for Ricky Rubio?
Pelton: I would. As Zach Lowe explored earlier this week, the Pistons' offense has run much more smoothly with pass-first point guard Ish Smith at the controls instead of Jackson.
With apologies to fellow Wake Forest alum Tom Haberstroh, Smith isn't the kind of player or long-term solution Rubio would be at the point. And even though it feels as if Rubio has been around forever, he entered the league so young that he's six months younger than Jackson.
Elhassan: Absolutely. While Jackson has his charms as an aggressive scoring guard, Rubio is the better fit as a true setup man who can help unlock Andre Drummond's dormant talent.
Rubio's pass-first approach would better target Drummond in high-value play types (pick and rolls, cuts, etc.) versus fulfilling the "pass to the big guy" quota with low-value post-ups.
Furthermore, Rubio is a far superior defender, consistently ranking among the highest-rated guards in defensive RPM, while Jackson is traditionally ranked among the worst.
What trades should the Pistons consider?
Doolittle: The Pistons have had Jackson on the floor for over 1,000 minutes and have been outscored by 7.3 points per 100 possessions during that time. It seems clear that Detroit needs a better point guard.
They've played pretty well with Smith, which suggests that there is enough offense-creation in the starting lineup to make Detroit one of the few teams that might still function better with a traditional lead guard.
So I agree: Why not see if Minnesota would take Jackson for Rubio? It might be just the stylistic switch both teams need, even if Jackson were to become the anchor of the Wolves' second unit. Stan Van Gundy would love Rubio's defense.
Engelmann: The Pistons have played rather uninspired basketball since Jackson came back, and some of his teammates' comments suggest that several Pistons aren't happy with how long Jackson holds onto the ball.
At the same time, another player whose box score contributions vastly overstate his on-court impact is Drummond, without whom the Pistons defend better (plus-nine points per 100 possessions). I'd recommend packaging the two in a trade.
Milwaukee Bucks
What philosophical approach should the Bucks take to the trade deadline?
Pelton: Patience. The Bucks already made their most important move, getting out from under Miles Plumlee's contract by trading him for Spencer Hawes and Roy Hibbert.
If Milwaukee could move John Henson or Mirza Teletovic for a player who better complements the team's young talent, that's certainly worth exploring.
Barring that, I'd rather spend more time evaluating how Khris Middleton fits with a rotation that changed dramatically in his absence for the first half of the season.
Elhassan: Agreed. While I appreciate their hope to make a strong playoff push, the Bucks should probably be conservative at this juncture.
Looking at the amazing collection of young talent on the roster, the Bucks figure to have many years to come of high-stakes basketball. It's more about subtle tweaks than wholesale change.
What trades should the Bucks consider?
Engelmann: The Bucks have several good young players signed to decent contracts. They can wait at least another season before having to meet playoff expectations. For now, I'd keep the roster as is.
Maybe deal Henson, who generally performs far below average in plus-minus metrics, for a player who does more of the little things.
Doolittle: The Bucks were really disappointing to me even before Jabari Parker went down again. As much as I liked the pickup of Matthew Dellavedova over the summer, it sure seems as if he'd be better as a third guard. Which means the Bucks still need a starting point guard who can defend and spot up off the ball while Giannis Antetokounmpo is doing his thing.
The Bucks need to find a look that works because their roster is going to be getting expensive over the next couple of years.
Chicago Bulls
If you were Chicago, what would you need to consider trading Jimmy Butler?
Elhassan: If I were Chicago, I'd get rid of everyone not named Butler and start anew; this is what I was talking about in the Pacers answer. But if I were a Chicago team resigned to move Butler, I'd want premium picks involved. I'm looking at you, Boston, with that sultry Brooklyn pick of yours!
Pelton: According to ESPN's Brian Windhorst on the TrueHoop podcast earlier this week, the Bulls are seeking a current starter, a young prospect and a pick likely to land in the top-5.
I probably wouldn't worry so much about the current starter because Chicago is likely to be entering a rebuild if Butler is traded. The top-5 pick or equivalent should be the key, and accompanied by another couple of first-round picks (or equivalent prospects) who can build around that top prospect.
What trades should the Bulls consider?
Doolittle: It's going to take awhile to sort out this mess and I'm not sure how much can be accomplished at the deadline.
Assuming Chicago's mindset of straddling the fence between a rebuild and making the playoffs remains in place, then maybe they can move Taj Gibson's expiring contract and bring back a guard who can shoot and defend the point. New Orleans or Sacramento could make sense though, honestly, I don't see many scenarios out there I like for both teams. That's what happens when you have a roster that's neither fish nor fowl.
Engelmann: So far, it looks like the "3 alphas" experiment has been a failure. I'd try to keep the core of Butler, Gibson and Robin Lopez and find any takers for Dwyane Wade, Rajon Rondo and Michael Carter-Williams.
Problem is, all three might be hard to deal. Wade makes $23.5 million this season and has a player option for the next, while both Rondo and Carter-Williams have bounced around with very limited success -- together they've played for seven teams in the past three seasons.
What philosophical approach should the Bucks take to the trade deadline?
Pelton: Patience. The Bucks already made their most important move, getting out from under Miles Plumlee's contract by trading him for Spencer Hawes and Roy Hibbert.
If Milwaukee could move John Henson or Mirza Teletovic for a player who better complements the team's young talent, that's certainly worth exploring.
Barring that, I'd rather spend more time evaluating how Khris Middleton fits with a rotation that changed dramatically in his absence for the first half of the season.
Elhassan: Agreed. While I appreciate their hope to make a strong playoff push, the Bucks should probably be conservative at this juncture.
Looking at the amazing collection of young talent on the roster, the Bucks figure to have many years to come of high-stakes basketball. It's more about subtle tweaks than wholesale change.
What trades should the Bucks consider?
Engelmann: The Bucks have several good young players signed to decent contracts. They can wait at least another season before having to meet playoff expectations. For now, I'd keep the roster as is.
Maybe deal Henson, who generally performs far below average in plus-minus metrics, for a player who does more of the little things.
Doolittle: The Bucks were really disappointing to me even before Jabari Parker went down again. As much as I liked the pickup of Matthew Dellavedova over the summer, it sure seems as if he'd be better as a third guard. Which means the Bucks still need a starting point guard who can defend and spot up off the ball while Giannis Antetokounmpo is doing his thing.
The Bucks need to find a look that works because their roster is going to be getting expensive over the next couple of years.
Chicago Bulls
If you were Chicago, what would you need to consider trading Jimmy Butler?
Elhassan: If I were Chicago, I'd get rid of everyone not named Butler and start anew; this is what I was talking about in the Pacers answer. But if I were a Chicago team resigned to move Butler, I'd want premium picks involved. I'm looking at you, Boston, with that sultry Brooklyn pick of yours!
Pelton: According to ESPN's Brian Windhorst on the TrueHoop podcast earlier this week, the Bulls are seeking a current starter, a young prospect and a pick likely to land in the top-5.
I probably wouldn't worry so much about the current starter because Chicago is likely to be entering a rebuild if Butler is traded. The top-5 pick or equivalent should be the key, and accompanied by another couple of first-round picks (or equivalent prospects) who can build around that top prospect.
What trades should the Bulls consider?
Doolittle: It's going to take awhile to sort out this mess and I'm not sure how much can be accomplished at the deadline.
Assuming Chicago's mindset of straddling the fence between a rebuild and making the playoffs remains in place, then maybe they can move Taj Gibson's expiring contract and bring back a guard who can shoot and defend the point. New Orleans or Sacramento could make sense though, honestly, I don't see many scenarios out there I like for both teams. That's what happens when you have a roster that's neither fish nor fowl.
Engelmann: So far, it looks like the "3 alphas" experiment has been a failure. I'd try to keep the core of Butler, Gibson and Robin Lopez and find any takers for Dwyane Wade, Rajon Rondo and Michael Carter-Williams.
Problem is, all three might be hard to deal. Wade makes $23.5 million this season and has a player option for the next, while both Rondo and Carter-Williams have bounced around with very limited success -- together they've played for seven teams in the past three seasons.
Picking one free agent every team should sign this offseason
Free agency offers the chance for every NFL team to kick-start its roster improvements. Every franchise wants to excel in the draft and build its roster over the long term for minimal outlay, but free agency can fast-track that process and give teams proven NFL commodities -- if they are willing to pay for them.
The Dallas Cowboys arguably have the league's best offensive line because they threw draft resources at it for several seasons -- and hit on those draft picks -- but the Oakland Raiders came close to matching that with a free-agent spending spree, bringing in several key players to transform their line and offense overall.
With that in mind, here is one free agent -- unrestricted or restricted, from the list of every player who could make it to the market -- each NFL team should sign this offseason.
Note: Each player's position rank is based on PFF's grades, and we're not including re-signings -- only players switching teams.
AFC EAST
Buffalo Bills
DeSean Jackson, WR | Position rank: 36th
Beyond Sammy Watkins, the Bills have gotten inconsistent production from their wide receivers, and Washington's Jackson provides another presence on the outside capable of getting behind the defense. Jackson led the league with 579 yards on deep passes while ranking second with 16 deep receptions. Perhaps Jackson is even more important for the Bills if Tyrod Taylor returns as their starting quarterback, as he throws one of the better deep balls in the league. Regardless of signal-caller, Jackson has enough juice to stretch the field and create big plays after the catch.
Miami Dolphins
Kevin Zeitler, G | Position rank: 7th
Don't be fooled by the emergence of running back Jay Ajayi, who led the league with 3.5 yards after contact per carry; the interior of the Dolphins' offensive line has had its struggles in the running game for a while. Enter Zeitler, who tied for ninth in the league with an 83.1 run-block grade last season. He's capable of creating movement at the line of scrimmage or locking onto defenders when on the move. Zeitler is also one of the better pass protectors on the interior, finishing fifth among guards, at 89.4. He allowed only one sack, three QB hits and 15 hurries on his 660 pass-blocking attempts for Cincinnati in 2016.
New England Patriots
Karl Klug, DL | Position rank: 22nd
The Super Bowl LI champions love to tap into the veteran market to fill holes along the defensive line, and Klug brings the versatility they covet up front. Klug is capable of playing on the interior or the edge while producing in multiple fronts, and he's an efficient pass-rusher, finishing at 78.3 in that department last season with the Titans. Klug hasn't played more than 400 snaps since his rookie season in 2011, but he's a valuable addition as a rotational piece with the ability to rush the passer from multiple positions.
New York Jets
Mario Addison, DE | Position rank: 16th
The Jets have lacked playmakers on the edge for years, and Addison has emerged as one of the league's best edge rushers the past two seasons with the Panthers. Last year was his best effort, as he finished with 9.5 sacks, five QB hits and 36 hurries on only 309 rushes; his 81.6 pass-rush grade ranked 16th in the NFL. The Jets, meanwhile, have been piecing together their edge rushers with bigger bodies such as Sheldon Richardson and Muhammad Wilkerson, and they need a true presence off the edge, which Addison can provide.
AFC NORTH
Baltimore Ravens
Jabaal Sheard, DL | Position rank: 36th
The Ravens aren't fortunate enough to have much salary-cap room, so even if some of the top pass-rushers hit the open market, it's unlikely Baltimore will be in position to make a big splash for them. What does make sense, though, is adding a veteran pass-rusher to bolster a defense that saw just one player, Terrell Suggs, register at least eight sacks and 45 total hurries in 2016. Sheard will be 28 years old when the 2017 season begins, and he registered six sacks, six hits and 31 hurries on 380 pass-rushing snaps (including the playoffs) for the Patriots in 2016. He is just a year removed from registering 65 total pressures on 397 pass-rushing snaps, so he can definitely help the Ravens in an area of need.
Cincinnati Bengals
Jason Pierre-Paul, DE | Position rank: 13th
The Bengals are not without pass-rushing threats on defense, with end Carlos Dunlap and tackle Geno Atkins ranking among the top-15 players at their respective positions in terms of their pass-rushing productivity ratings. Still, the opportunity to add another top edge defender to make the Bengals' defensive front even tougher to stop should be enticing for Cincinnati. Pierre-Paul is coming off one of his most productive seasons with the Giants as a pass-rusher, registering 54 total pressures before his season came to an end in Week 13. A fully healthy trio of Dunlap, Atkins and Pierre-Paul could vault the Bengals back to the playoffs in 2017.
Cleveland Browns
Chandler Jones, LB | Position rank: 7th
With more cap room than any other team in the NFL, the time for the Browns to make a splash in free agency is now. What better way to make that splash than to go after the top pass-rusher on the market? The fifth-year veteran has registered at least 15 quarterback knockdowns (sacks and hits) every season since he entered the league, and that number jumps to 22 when looking at the past two seasons alone. He registered 66 total pressures on 565 snaps, which works out to a pressure once every 8.6 pass-rushing attempts. Jones is almost certain to stay in Arizona -- either on the franchise tag or a long-term deal -- but Cleveland should jump at the chance to sign him if he makes it to the market.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Pierre Garcon, WR | Position rank: 8th
The Steelers have one of the top wide receivers in the NFL, but consistency from a No. 2 receiver is something they have lacked in recent years. Martavis Bryant has the straight-line speed to terrify opposing defenses, but he is coming off a season-long suspension, so how much faith should the Steelers have that he can contribute for a full season in 2017? Another option at the No. 2 spot was Sammie Coates, but while he led the league by averaging 20.7 yards per catch, he also led the league in drop rate, dropping 25.0 percent of the passes thrown his way. Garcon would add the needed consistency. He dropped just one of the 80 catchable passes thrown his way in 2016 for Washington, and he would be the perfect No. 2 opposite Antonio Brown.
AFC SOUTH
Houston Texans
Ronald Leary, G | Position rank: 24th
Houston's biggest problem this season was the disastrous decision to hand a huge contract to quarterback Brock Osweiler, but the offensive line didn't help him much. Leary showed this season that he's still a quality starting-caliber guard, and he will likely be surplus to requirements needed in Dallas with La'el Collins coming back from injury. Leary didn't allow a single sack in 2016 and would be able to slot between Duane Brown at left tackle and Greg Mancz at center and give the Texans a formidable left side of the offensive line.
Indianapolis Colts
T.J. Lang, G | Position rank: 8th
When it can field its strongest five starters, the offensive line in Indianapolis is a lot better than it showed at times in 2016, but it still has an issue at guard. Jack Mewhort is a good player at one spot, but the other could use an upgrade, and Lang has been one of the league's most consistent guards for several years now for the Packers. In 13 games this past season, he didn't allow a single sack or hit on Aaron Rodgers, despite Rodgers' holding the ball longer on average than all QBs besides Tyrod Taylor.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Eric Berry, S | Position rank: 8th
Berry demonstrated this season that he is not just a box safety but a player who can excel away from the line of scrimmage as a deeper lying weapon, something that is becoming increasingly difficult to find in today's NFL. He played just 18.1 percent of his snaps in the box as a strong safety for the Chiefs in 2016, but he has the versatility to match up with backs and tight ends in the slot or in man coverage. Finding a strong run-defending safety isn't hard, but Berry could provide the deep safety for the Jaguars. Berry could be the top free agent on the market if the Chiefs decide not to franchise him for the second straight season.
Tennessee Titans
Morris Claiborne, CB | Position rank: 12th
Jason McCourty was the top corner in Tennessee in 2016, and he was average at best for much of the year, allowing three touchdowns and 703 yards in coverage. Behind him, depth was a problem, and the team's top four cornerbacks surrendered 14 touchdowns to just seven interceptions, giving up 2,458 receiving yards between them. Claiborne finally showed off his first-round talent this season for the Cowboys and was beaten for only one touchdown across 406 snaps before injury derailed his season. He would represent a gamble, but one that could pay off big.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
Matt Barkley, QB | Position rank: 23rd
Complacency is not an option for the Broncos at quarterback this offseason. Sure, Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch could take the next step toward being a competent quarterback, but betting an entire season with a Super Bowl roster on that chance doesn't seem advisable. Barkley had a string of four games late in the season with the Bears that was far better than any such stretch from Siemian in 2016, and Barkley had the likes of Cameron Meredith as his No. 1 receiver.
Kansas City Chiefs
Zach Brown, LB | Position rank: 17th
Derrick Johnson is 34 years old and coming off yet another torn Achilles. Even if he doesn't retire, relying on him to be the player he once was could backfire. Brown can match many of the things Johnson can do from an athleticism standpoint and is coming off a career year in Buffalo. Brown registered 21 stops in coverage, the ninth most of any off-ball linebacker.
Los Angeles Chargers
Tony Jefferson, S | Position rank: 5th
New defensive coordinator Gus Bradley will almost assuredly bring with him the Cover 3 defense he ran so frequently in Jacksonville and Seattle. That defense has a specific role for a box safety with the ability to play the run, and there's none better on the market this offseason than Jefferson. The safety had a run-stop percentage of 10.5 when he lined up in the box last season in Arizona, a figure that led all safeties and would have put him fifth among starting linebackers. Jefferson was made for Bradley's defense.
Oakland Raiders
Dont'a Hightower, LB | Position rank: 12th
Even after a spending spree last offseason, the Raiders have a ton of cap space and can use it to address easily their biggest position of need: linebacker. The cream of the crop this year in free agency is easily Hightower, as he has been a top-10-graded linebacker for PFF each of the past three seasons for New England. The most impressive facet of Hightower's game comes as a blitzer. He has racked up 18 sacks the past three years, while the Raiders' off-ball linebackers didn't have a single one in 2016. Hightower will likely return to the Patriots, but he'll have many suitors if he makes it to the open market.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
Nick Perry, LB | Position rank: 19th
There's a clear need along the defensive line for the Cowboys, and the position needs to be addressed in the draft or in free agency. Perry has continued to improve as a pass-rusher for the Packers, and he's coming off his best year as a pro, with 12 sacks, six QB hits and 33 hurries on 460 rushes, including the playoffs. Dallas had the second-lowest pressure rate in the NFL last season, and Perry is an immediate upgrade off the edge in the passing game. Perry is not a one-dimensional player, as he ranked 10th among edge defenders with an 84.1 grade, so he can provide an every-down option for the Cowboys.
New York Giants
Eddie Lacy, RB | Position rank: N/A
There was too much pressure put on the Giants' passing attack in 2016, and they need a better threat in the running game. Rookie running back Paul Perkins has a bright future, but adding Lacy to the mix would give New York two strong options. He managed to break 19 tackles on only 71 carries in 2016 on his way to averaging 5.1 yards per carry (including 3.4 yards after contact per rush) for the Packers. Although it isn't always pretty, Lacy has done a fine job of maximizing the offensive line's blocking in his four years in the league. Between Lacy and the shifty Perkins, the Giants would have a much-improved running game.
Philadelphia Eagles
Adam Thielen, WR | Position rank: 18th
Thielen, who finished with 69 catches for 967 yards and five touchdowns while dropping only three passes, had a breakout season in 2016 with Minnesota. He was a reliable target for Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford, and that same short and intermediate reliability is a must for the Eagles' offense and QB Carson Wentz. Thielen, who's a restricted free agent, doesn't solve all Philadelphia's issues at the skill positions, but he can play the much-needed role of possession receiver as Wentz continues to develop as the Eagles' franchise quarterback.
Washington Redskins
Calais Campbell, DT | Position rank: 2nd
Washington has gotten inconsistent play from the interior of its defensive line over the years, and Campbell represents one of the most impactful players who could make it to the open market. He ranks among the best interior defensive linemen every year, and he finished 2016 with a 90.4 overall grade that ranked second. Campbell is a playmaker against the run -- that part of his game has improved greatly as his career has progressed -- and he complemented it with nine sacks, 15 QB hits and 32 hurries on his 518 rushes for the Cardinals in 2016. Adding Campbell to Washington's defensive front would be a game-changer for the entire defense.
Houston Texans
Ronald Leary, G | Position rank: 24th
Houston's biggest problem this season was the disastrous decision to hand a huge contract to quarterback Brock Osweiler, but the offensive line didn't help him much. Leary showed this season that he's still a quality starting-caliber guard, and he will likely be surplus to requirements needed in Dallas with La'el Collins coming back from injury. Leary didn't allow a single sack in 2016 and would be able to slot between Duane Brown at left tackle and Greg Mancz at center and give the Texans a formidable left side of the offensive line.
Indianapolis Colts
T.J. Lang, G | Position rank: 8th
When it can field its strongest five starters, the offensive line in Indianapolis is a lot better than it showed at times in 2016, but it still has an issue at guard. Jack Mewhort is a good player at one spot, but the other could use an upgrade, and Lang has been one of the league's most consistent guards for several years now for the Packers. In 13 games this past season, he didn't allow a single sack or hit on Aaron Rodgers, despite Rodgers' holding the ball longer on average than all QBs besides Tyrod Taylor.
Jacksonville Jaguars
Eric Berry, S | Position rank: 8th
Berry demonstrated this season that he is not just a box safety but a player who can excel away from the line of scrimmage as a deeper lying weapon, something that is becoming increasingly difficult to find in today's NFL. He played just 18.1 percent of his snaps in the box as a strong safety for the Chiefs in 2016, but he has the versatility to match up with backs and tight ends in the slot or in man coverage. Finding a strong run-defending safety isn't hard, but Berry could provide the deep safety for the Jaguars. Berry could be the top free agent on the market if the Chiefs decide not to franchise him for the second straight season.
Tennessee Titans
Morris Claiborne, CB | Position rank: 12th
Jason McCourty was the top corner in Tennessee in 2016, and he was average at best for much of the year, allowing three touchdowns and 703 yards in coverage. Behind him, depth was a problem, and the team's top four cornerbacks surrendered 14 touchdowns to just seven interceptions, giving up 2,458 receiving yards between them. Claiborne finally showed off his first-round talent this season for the Cowboys and was beaten for only one touchdown across 406 snaps before injury derailed his season. He would represent a gamble, but one that could pay off big.
AFC WEST
Denver Broncos
Matt Barkley, QB | Position rank: 23rd
Complacency is not an option for the Broncos at quarterback this offseason. Sure, Trevor Siemian or Paxton Lynch could take the next step toward being a competent quarterback, but betting an entire season with a Super Bowl roster on that chance doesn't seem advisable. Barkley had a string of four games late in the season with the Bears that was far better than any such stretch from Siemian in 2016, and Barkley had the likes of Cameron Meredith as his No. 1 receiver.
Kansas City Chiefs
Zach Brown, LB | Position rank: 17th
Derrick Johnson is 34 years old and coming off yet another torn Achilles. Even if he doesn't retire, relying on him to be the player he once was could backfire. Brown can match many of the things Johnson can do from an athleticism standpoint and is coming off a career year in Buffalo. Brown registered 21 stops in coverage, the ninth most of any off-ball linebacker.
Los Angeles Chargers
Tony Jefferson, S | Position rank: 5th
New defensive coordinator Gus Bradley will almost assuredly bring with him the Cover 3 defense he ran so frequently in Jacksonville and Seattle. That defense has a specific role for a box safety with the ability to play the run, and there's none better on the market this offseason than Jefferson. The safety had a run-stop percentage of 10.5 when he lined up in the box last season in Arizona, a figure that led all safeties and would have put him fifth among starting linebackers. Jefferson was made for Bradley's defense.
Oakland Raiders
Dont'a Hightower, LB | Position rank: 12th
Even after a spending spree last offseason, the Raiders have a ton of cap space and can use it to address easily their biggest position of need: linebacker. The cream of the crop this year in free agency is easily Hightower, as he has been a top-10-graded linebacker for PFF each of the past three seasons for New England. The most impressive facet of Hightower's game comes as a blitzer. He has racked up 18 sacks the past three years, while the Raiders' off-ball linebackers didn't have a single one in 2016. Hightower will likely return to the Patriots, but he'll have many suitors if he makes it to the open market.
NFC EAST
Dallas Cowboys
Nick Perry, LB | Position rank: 19th
There's a clear need along the defensive line for the Cowboys, and the position needs to be addressed in the draft or in free agency. Perry has continued to improve as a pass-rusher for the Packers, and he's coming off his best year as a pro, with 12 sacks, six QB hits and 33 hurries on 460 rushes, including the playoffs. Dallas had the second-lowest pressure rate in the NFL last season, and Perry is an immediate upgrade off the edge in the passing game. Perry is not a one-dimensional player, as he ranked 10th among edge defenders with an 84.1 grade, so he can provide an every-down option for the Cowboys.
New York Giants
Eddie Lacy, RB | Position rank: N/A
There was too much pressure put on the Giants' passing attack in 2016, and they need a better threat in the running game. Rookie running back Paul Perkins has a bright future, but adding Lacy to the mix would give New York two strong options. He managed to break 19 tackles on only 71 carries in 2016 on his way to averaging 5.1 yards per carry (including 3.4 yards after contact per rush) for the Packers. Although it isn't always pretty, Lacy has done a fine job of maximizing the offensive line's blocking in his four years in the league. Between Lacy and the shifty Perkins, the Giants would have a much-improved running game.
Philadelphia Eagles
Adam Thielen, WR | Position rank: 18th
Thielen, who finished with 69 catches for 967 yards and five touchdowns while dropping only three passes, had a breakout season in 2016 with Minnesota. He was a reliable target for Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford, and that same short and intermediate reliability is a must for the Eagles' offense and QB Carson Wentz. Thielen, who's a restricted free agent, doesn't solve all Philadelphia's issues at the skill positions, but he can play the much-needed role of possession receiver as Wentz continues to develop as the Eagles' franchise quarterback.
Washington Redskins
Calais Campbell, DT | Position rank: 2nd
Washington has gotten inconsistent play from the interior of its defensive line over the years, and Campbell represents one of the most impactful players who could make it to the open market. He ranks among the best interior defensive linemen every year, and he finished 2016 with a 90.4 overall grade that ranked second. Campbell is a playmaker against the run -- that part of his game has improved greatly as his career has progressed -- and he complemented it with nine sacks, 15 QB hits and 32 hurries on his 518 rushes for the Cardinals in 2016. Adding Campbell to Washington's defensive front would be a game-changer for the entire defense.
NFC NORTH
Chicago Bears
Logan Ryan, CB | Position rank: 16th
Chicago at heart loves physical cornerbacks who will play the run and make an impact, and Ryan is a fantastic representation of that. He had the league's third-best run-stop percentage among all cornerbacks, at 2.6 percent of run snaps, and the 24 defensive stops he notched over the regular season for the Patriots were fourth best at the position. Ryan won't ever be an All-Pro corner, but he can be a solid starting option for a team that needs an overhaul at cornerback.
Detroit Lions
Kawann Short, DT | Position rank: 3rd
The Lions haven't been able to replace what they lost in Ndamukong Suh two years ago, but Short would represent a nearly like-for-like replacement. Short took a little while to warm up in 2016, but by the end of the Panthers' season, he was a whirlwind of destruction in opponents' backfields. He ended the year with 49 total pressures, 38 defensive stops and impressive PFF grades against both the run and the pass. Short, however, is likely to be given the franchise tag by Carolina.
Green Bay Packers
Trumaine Johnson, CB | Position rank: 26th
Green Bay's problems in the secondary were the ultimate death of the team's title hopes this season. The Packers have an extremely young secondary that they won't be keen to give up on entirely, so one key addition at cornerback would answer a lot of issues. The Rams' Johnson has the size (6-foot-2, 204 pounds) that NFL teams covet now, and though his numbers were down in 2016 from a season before, he put up a better season than would be believed from looking at the one interception to his name. He had six pass breakups and was beaten for only 10.1 yards per reception.
Minnesota Vikings
Andrew Whitworth, OT | Position rank: 2nd
There is no more desperate position need in the league than the Vikings' need at tackle, and though their line needs more than one shot fired at it, the Vikings need an immediate solution as well as a long-term plan. Whitworth remains one of the league's most underrated and consistently excellent players, and he finished the Bengals' season with a PFF grade of 92.5 when it comes to pass protection -- the best mark in the league once David Bakhtiari eroded his grade during Green Bay's playoff run. Whitworth allowed 14 total pressures in 2016, while Minnesota's offensive tackles combined to allow 120.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
Nick Fairley, DT | Position rank: 34th
Lost in the prowess of Tom Brady during the Patriots' stunning comeback win in Super Bowl LI was just how much the tiring Atlanta defense struggled to generate pressure as the game went on. The Falcons got pressure on Brady on 60.0 percent of passing plays in the first quarter, but that dropped as each quarter went on, all the way to getting no pressure at all on him in overtime. The ideal fix to prevent that happening in the future is more depth on the defensive line, and that's where Fairley comes in. Fairley's ideal role is a player who plays 500 or so snaps per season, and he registered 47 total QB pressures for the Saints last season.
Carolina Panthers
A.J. Bouye, CB | Position rank: 3rd
The Panthers were bold in their decision to revoke the franchise tag from cornerback Josh Norman last offseason, and with the emergence of second-round draft pick James Bradberry, they'll feel confident that they have a No. 1 cornerback on their roster. That said, with the opportunity to go out and grab Bouye, who is coming off a career year with the Texans, Carolina should be ready to pounce. Bouye was outstanding in 2016, allowing just 54.5 percent of the passes thrown into his coverage to be caught and coming away with an interception and 11 pass breakups in the regular season.
New Orleans Saints
Brandon Williams, DT | Position rank: 39th
The Saints have talent on their defensive line, with Cameron Jordan racking up 79 total pressures in 2016. What they lack, though, is a defensive tackle who can be stout against the run in the middle, and this free-agent class offers the perfect fit in Williams. He is not a do-it-all playmaker on the defensive line, and with 55 total pressures the past three years, he's really only going to chip in with some pressure as a pass-rusher. What Williams is, though, is one of the most dominant forces in the NFL against the run. In each of the past three seasons with the Ravens, he has ranked among the top seven defensive tackles in the NFL in run-stop percentage.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Terrelle Pryor Sr., WR | Position rank: 31st
The Tampa Bay offense has Mike Evans, who is coming off the best season of his three-year career. Evans recorded a career high in yards with 1,321 and tied his career high in touchdowns with 12. That doesn't mean this offense can't improve, though, and Pryor would add another big-play threat for QB Jameis Winston to target. Although Pryor wasn't always consistent, it's important to remember that this was the first year he played significant snaps at wide receiver, and for most of the Browns' season, he looked like a natural, averaging 13.1 yards per catch and dropping just six of the 83 catchable passes thrown his way.
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals
Martellus Bennett, TE | Position rank: 10th
For a team that uses a tight end as such a crucial part of its offense, the Cardinals might want to fix the revolving door of inadequacy that they've managed in recent years. For Arizona, it's a blocking-first position, and New England's Bennett has been one of the top blocking tight ends over the course of his career. The journeyman also adds some playmaking ability after the catch, as he led the league in broken tackles in 2013 and 2014.
Los Angeles Rams
Alshon Jeffery, WR | Position rank: 33rd
The Rams haven't had a legitimate No. 1 receiver since Torry **** retired. With QB Jared Goff's development so crucial, that needs to change. With injuries and sporadic quarterback play, much of 2016 was a wash for Chicago's Jeffery, but he proved in 2015 what kind of potential he has. That season, his 2.87 yards per route were fourth best of any receiver in the league. Kenny Britt led the Rams last season at 2.00 in that category.
San Francisco 49ers
Melvin Ingram, LB | Position rank: 6th
Arguably the top pass-rusher in this free-agent class, San Diego's Ingram won't come cheaply. The good news for the 49ers is that they have the second-most cap space of any NFL team. Ingram's 72 total pressures were the sixth most of any edge player in the NFL last season and almost twice that of 49ers starter Ahmad Brooks (38). Ingram also had a top-15 grade against the run at the position and would upgrade an all-time bad unit.
Seattle Seahawks
Rick Wagner, OT | Position rank: 18th
If the Seahawks rely on the draft and further development from their young players on the roster, their offensive line could run the risk of being one of the worst in the NFL yet again. Garry Gilliam, Bradley Sowell and George Fant were 46th, 54th and 61st out of 61 qualifying tackles in pass-blocking efficiency last season. Baltimore's Wagner was 21st, and he would provide a major upgrade at the tackle position.
Chicago Bears
Logan Ryan, CB | Position rank: 16th
Chicago at heart loves physical cornerbacks who will play the run and make an impact, and Ryan is a fantastic representation of that. He had the league's third-best run-stop percentage among all cornerbacks, at 2.6 percent of run snaps, and the 24 defensive stops he notched over the regular season for the Patriots were fourth best at the position. Ryan won't ever be an All-Pro corner, but he can be a solid starting option for a team that needs an overhaul at cornerback.
Detroit Lions
Kawann Short, DT | Position rank: 3rd
The Lions haven't been able to replace what they lost in Ndamukong Suh two years ago, but Short would represent a nearly like-for-like replacement. Short took a little while to warm up in 2016, but by the end of the Panthers' season, he was a whirlwind of destruction in opponents' backfields. He ended the year with 49 total pressures, 38 defensive stops and impressive PFF grades against both the run and the pass. Short, however, is likely to be given the franchise tag by Carolina.
Green Bay Packers
Trumaine Johnson, CB | Position rank: 26th
Green Bay's problems in the secondary were the ultimate death of the team's title hopes this season. The Packers have an extremely young secondary that they won't be keen to give up on entirely, so one key addition at cornerback would answer a lot of issues. The Rams' Johnson has the size (6-foot-2, 204 pounds) that NFL teams covet now, and though his numbers were down in 2016 from a season before, he put up a better season than would be believed from looking at the one interception to his name. He had six pass breakups and was beaten for only 10.1 yards per reception.
Minnesota Vikings
Andrew Whitworth, OT | Position rank: 2nd
There is no more desperate position need in the league than the Vikings' need at tackle, and though their line needs more than one shot fired at it, the Vikings need an immediate solution as well as a long-term plan. Whitworth remains one of the league's most underrated and consistently excellent players, and he finished the Bengals' season with a PFF grade of 92.5 when it comes to pass protection -- the best mark in the league once David Bakhtiari eroded his grade during Green Bay's playoff run. Whitworth allowed 14 total pressures in 2016, while Minnesota's offensive tackles combined to allow 120.
NFC SOUTH
Atlanta Falcons
Nick Fairley, DT | Position rank: 34th
Lost in the prowess of Tom Brady during the Patriots' stunning comeback win in Super Bowl LI was just how much the tiring Atlanta defense struggled to generate pressure as the game went on. The Falcons got pressure on Brady on 60.0 percent of passing plays in the first quarter, but that dropped as each quarter went on, all the way to getting no pressure at all on him in overtime. The ideal fix to prevent that happening in the future is more depth on the defensive line, and that's where Fairley comes in. Fairley's ideal role is a player who plays 500 or so snaps per season, and he registered 47 total QB pressures for the Saints last season.
Carolina Panthers
A.J. Bouye, CB | Position rank: 3rd
The Panthers were bold in their decision to revoke the franchise tag from cornerback Josh Norman last offseason, and with the emergence of second-round draft pick James Bradberry, they'll feel confident that they have a No. 1 cornerback on their roster. That said, with the opportunity to go out and grab Bouye, who is coming off a career year with the Texans, Carolina should be ready to pounce. Bouye was outstanding in 2016, allowing just 54.5 percent of the passes thrown into his coverage to be caught and coming away with an interception and 11 pass breakups in the regular season.
New Orleans Saints
Brandon Williams, DT | Position rank: 39th
The Saints have talent on their defensive line, with Cameron Jordan racking up 79 total pressures in 2016. What they lack, though, is a defensive tackle who can be stout against the run in the middle, and this free-agent class offers the perfect fit in Williams. He is not a do-it-all playmaker on the defensive line, and with 55 total pressures the past three years, he's really only going to chip in with some pressure as a pass-rusher. What Williams is, though, is one of the most dominant forces in the NFL against the run. In each of the past three seasons with the Ravens, he has ranked among the top seven defensive tackles in the NFL in run-stop percentage.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Terrelle Pryor Sr., WR | Position rank: 31st
The Tampa Bay offense has Mike Evans, who is coming off the best season of his three-year career. Evans recorded a career high in yards with 1,321 and tied his career high in touchdowns with 12. That doesn't mean this offense can't improve, though, and Pryor would add another big-play threat for QB Jameis Winston to target. Although Pryor wasn't always consistent, it's important to remember that this was the first year he played significant snaps at wide receiver, and for most of the Browns' season, he looked like a natural, averaging 13.1 yards per catch and dropping just six of the 83 catchable passes thrown his way.
NFC WEST
Arizona Cardinals
Martellus Bennett, TE | Position rank: 10th
For a team that uses a tight end as such a crucial part of its offense, the Cardinals might want to fix the revolving door of inadequacy that they've managed in recent years. For Arizona, it's a blocking-first position, and New England's Bennett has been one of the top blocking tight ends over the course of his career. The journeyman also adds some playmaking ability after the catch, as he led the league in broken tackles in 2013 and 2014.
Los Angeles Rams
Alshon Jeffery, WR | Position rank: 33rd
The Rams haven't had a legitimate No. 1 receiver since Torry **** retired. With QB Jared Goff's development so crucial, that needs to change. With injuries and sporadic quarterback play, much of 2016 was a wash for Chicago's Jeffery, but he proved in 2015 what kind of potential he has. That season, his 2.87 yards per route were fourth best of any receiver in the league. Kenny Britt led the Rams last season at 2.00 in that category.
Melvin Ingram, LB | Position rank: 6th
Arguably the top pass-rusher in this free-agent class, San Diego's Ingram won't come cheaply. The good news for the 49ers is that they have the second-most cap space of any NFL team. Ingram's 72 total pressures were the sixth most of any edge player in the NFL last season and almost twice that of 49ers starter Ahmad Brooks (38). Ingram also had a top-15 grade against the run at the position and would upgrade an all-time bad unit.
Seattle Seahawks
Rick Wagner, OT | Position rank: 18th
If the Seahawks rely on the draft and further development from their young players on the roster, their offensive line could run the risk of being one of the worst in the NFL yet again. Garry Gilliam, Bradley Sowell and George Fant were 46th, 54th and 61st out of 61 qualifying tackles in pass-blocking efficiency last season. Baltimore's Wagner was 21st, and he would provide a major upgrade at the tackle position.
1. Boston Celtics (via Nets)*
Markelle Fultz
Washington
Freshman
Guard
Celtics president Danny Ainge was in Seattle recently, watching Fultz go head-to-head with UCLA's Lonzo Ball and USC's De'Anthony Melton. Fultz was good but not spectacular in both games, but blame much of that on a lackluster roster at Washington.
The Celtics don't really need a point guard (they passed on Kris Dunn last year because of how loaded they are at the position). However, I don't think that will stop Boston from drafting Fultz.
Fultz has the size and natural scoring ability to play either the 1 or the 2. And his 3-point shooting should be especially appealing to the Celtics. In the two games Ainge watched, Fultz was 9-for-18 from 3.
Odds of winning lottery (if Brooklyn finishes with the worst record): 25 percent (Boston owns the rights to swap picks with Brooklyn.)
Projected record (Nets): 16-66
2. Phoenix Suns
Lonzo Ball
UCLA
Freshman
Guard
The Suns are loaded with point guards, but I don't think that will stop them from drafting Ball.
Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight are expendable. Ball's ceiling is higher than both combined.
His elite passing ability combined with his unselfishness gives him the potential to make everyone on this young up-and-coming roster better. Pair him with Devin Booker, Marquese Chriss and Dragan Bender and the Suns have a very appealing and fun team on the horizon.
Odds of winning lottery: 19.9 percent
Projected record: 26-56
3. Los Angeles Lakers*
Josh Jackson
Kansas
Freshman
Forward
The Lakers currently have a 46.8 percent chance of landing a top-3 pick in the draft, according to BPI. If they don't land in the top three, the Sixers will get the pick.
Jackson has been on fire lately for Kansas and is making a strong case for the No. 1 pick, as well. The Lakers have added some offensive firepower with young players such as Brandon Ingram, D'Angelo Russell and Julius Randle. Jackson gives them a player who excels defensively, brings a ferocious winning mentality and has the versatility to let coach Luke Walton use him in the same way the Warriors have used Andre Iguodala.
While Fultz and Ball might be a little more appealing, what Jackson would add to the culture of this team shouldn't be discounted.
Odds of winning lottery: 15.6 percent (Sixers get the Lakers' pick if it falls outside the top three)
Projected record: 28-54
4. Philadelphia 76ers
Malik Monk
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard
Falling to No. 4, paired with the Lakers moving up to No. 3, is a bit of a worse-case scenario for the Sixers when it comes to the draft lottery. But this draft is so loaded, it won't stop them from landing another major building block.
Monk makes a lot of sense for the Sixers. Ben Simmons can play the point, so what they need is a dynamic scorer and shooter to pair with him. Monk is the most electric scorer to come into the draft in some time. He can be streaky, but when he gets going he's difficult to stop. He should be able to instantly transform the Sixers' offense.
Odds of winning lottery: 11.9 percent
Projected record: 29-53
5. Orlando Magic
Dennis Smith
NC State
Freshman
Guard
The Magic are a mess and could end up in a major front office and roster overhaul this summer. That makes projecting team needs a bit difficult.
There are several good options on the board for Orlando here, but Smith seems like a solid fit. Elfrid Payton is up and down and even when he's on, it wouldn't prohibit the Magic from grabbing Smith. Smith's elite athleticism and dynamic scoring ability should give the Magic some real offensive punch in their backcourt.
Odds of winning lottery: 8.8 percent
Projected record: 30-52
6. Minnesota Timberwolves
Jonathan Isaac
FSU
Freshman
Forward
Based on pure upside and talent, Isaac might be a better overall prospect than Brandon Ingram. He just needs to add a lot of strength.
The Wolves might feel as if they have enough young players and can't afford to be patient. But Isaac is worth the wait. Either way, getting another shooting big would be a nice fit for the Wolves -- if Tom Thibodeau can handle another player on the roster who doesn't play great defense.
Odds of winning lottery: 6.3 percent
Projected record: 32-50
7. Sacramento Kings (via Pelicans)*
Jayson Tatum
Duke
Freshman
Forward
The Kings received this pick (top-3 protected) from the Pelicans along with Buddy Hield, Tyreke Evans and Langston Galloway in the DeMarcus Cousins trade on Sunday night.
While the Kings love Hield (something we reported in May of last year) the biggest prize in the deal for them is the Pelicans' pick. If it falls somewhere in the top 12, they are looking at a starter to potential All-Star talent.
Picking No. 7 might be a bit unrealistic. The Pelicans should make a serious run in the West for the No. 8 seed with Cousins on board. But for now, that's where BPI has them slotted, and Tatum seems like a logical fit. (The projections haven't factored in the addition of Cousins yet, though RPM projections from ESPN's Kevin Pelton have the Pelicans right on the edge of the playoffs).
Tatum probably has the most raw talent of the players left on the board. He's a prototypical NBA 3. If he can ever get his 3-point shot to fall with regularity, he'd be a steal this late in the draft. Rudy Gay is out with an Achilles injury and has a player-option this summer, so Tatum should be a nice fit in what's now considered a major rebuild.
Odds of winning lottery: 4.3 percent
Projected record (Pelicans): 33-49 (Sacramento will get New Orleans' pick if it falls outside the top three.)
8. New York Knicks
Frank Ntilikina
France
Age: 18
Guard
Derrick Rose and Brandon Jennings are free agents this summer. At some point, the Knicks are going to have to transition from Carmelo Anthony's team to Kristaps Porzingis' team.
Ntilikina is probably underrated right now. If he were in the NCAA, I think he'd be a few spots higher in our Big Board rankings. The Knicks need to think about the future, and Ntilikina can help them get there if they're a little patient.
Odds of winning lottery: 2.8 percent
Projected record: 34-48
9. Dallas Mavericks
Lauri Markkanen
Arizona
Freshman
Forward
The Mavs are about ready to hit a full reset. Dirk Nowitzki, 38, is aging along with much of the rest of the roster. Harrison Barnes seems like the only real true building block for the future (and, no, I'm not on the Yogi Ferrell future Hall of Famer bandwagon yet). That gives the Mavs a lot of flexibility when it comes to the draft.
Markkanen has slowly moved himself closer to Tier 2 alongside Jackson, Monk, Smith, Isaac and Tatum. The versatile 7-footer is shooting a crazy 47 percent from 3 on nearly five attempts per game.
A few scouts have made comparisons to Nowitzki. That seems a bit hyperbolic to me. There are some similarities there, especially with Markkanen's shooting ability for his height, but a Ryan Anderson comp might be more fitting.
Odds of winning lottery: 1.7 percent
Projected record: 34-48
10. Sacramento Kings*
De'Aaron Fox
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard
Drafting a young point guard has been a need for years. Luckily, there is still one on the board for Sacramento.
The depth of the draft remains ridiculous. Fox is having a terrific season for the Wildcats and might be the fastest player in the draft, yet he can barely crack the top 10.
He doesn't give the Kings the shooting they need, but he's a major prospect in every other area.
Odds of winning lottery: 1.1 percent (If the Kings move ahead of Philadelphia in the lottery and are in the top 10, they swap spots with the Sixers. If Sacramento's pick falls outside the top 10, it will go to Chicago.)
Projected record: 34-48
11. Miami Heat
Harry Giles
Duke
Freshman
Forward
Giles remains the trickiest prospect in the draft to evaluate. He's playing anywhere from seven to 18 minutes a game. When he plays 14 minutes or more, good things seem to happen in flashes. But overall, he still doesn't look like the Giles we saw in high school. It will be hard for teams to draft him over some of the less talented but less risky players above him.
I don't think the Heat (or Wolves, for that matter) should pass on him, though. His upside is as high as anyone's in the draft. He's shaking off a lot of rust right now, but when he gets fully healthy, he has superstar potential.
If the Heat can grab him here, they'll be thrilled. His work ethic and toughness fit Miami's culture perfectly. In a year or two, this pick could be the steal of the draft.
Odds of winning lottery: 0.8 percent
Projected record: 36-46
12. Portland Trail Blazers
Miles Bridges
Michigan State
Freshman
Forward
Bridges' hot start has cooled a bit thanks to injuries and a tough season for the Spartans. He remains an appealing prospect who could be a nice long-term fit in Portland.
He's versatile and super athletic and has proved he can hit college 3s at a 40 percent clip. He's still turnover prone, but it's often because he's asked to do too much. Put him around young guards Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum and I think he'll thrive.
Odds of winning lottery: 0.7 percent
Projected record: 36-46
13. Milwaukee Bucks
Justin Patton
Creighton
Freshman
Center
Patton has been on a meteoric rise and is the highest-rated center on our Big Board. The Bucks just dumped Miles Plumlee and have been looking to move Greg Monroe for a year.
Although Patton isn't the type of player who will come in and dominate right away for the Bucks, he's the long-term building block they've been looking for in the middle. He has tremendous upside and seems to just be scratching the surface on what he can do.
Odds of winning lottery: 0.6 percent
Projected record: 37-45
14. Charlotte Hornets
Robert Williams
Texas A&M
Freshman
Forward
Williams is raw, but his athleticism and defensive potential are off the charts.
The Hornets really don't have anyone on the roster who fits that mold anymore.
Odds of winning lottery: 0.5 percent
Projected record: 38-44
15. Denver Nuggets
T.J. Leaf
UCLA
Freshman
Forward
Leaf is one of the most gifted scorers in college basketball. He has the full arsenal of skills on the offensive end of the court. Defensively, however, he's a bit of a liability, and that causes him to slide just a bit down the draft board.
The Nuggets lack elite athletes in the front court, so this might not be a perfect fit. However, his offensive skills are so strong that I think he'd still make a convincing case.
Projected record: 38-44
16. Chicago Bulls
Jarrett Allen
Texas
Freshman
Center
The Bulls are a mess and the rumblings that there could be major changes to the front office and team this summer appear well-founded. Trying to discern what's next for them, given the team chaos, is difficult.
Allen is a project, but an intriguing one. His defense is ahead of his offense right now, but over the course of the past few weeks he has been making major offensive strides as well.
He seems to be coming on at the right time and could be a nice backup to Robin Lopez for the next year or two while he adds strength and experience.
Projected record: 39-43
17. Detroit Pistons
Terrance Ferguson
Australia
Age: 19
Guard
Ferguson's stint in Australia has been solid. He's not shooting the ball particularly well, but he has picked up valuable experience and teams like his long-term upside as a shooter. The Pistons could use depth behind Kentavious Caldwell-Pope at the 2.
Projected record: 40-42
18. Indiana Pacers
Ivan Rabb
Cal
Sophomore
Forward
The Pacers don't have a lot of real depth behind Thaddeus Young at the 4. Rabb has probably moved from overrated to underrated this season.
While scouts are infatuated with the freshmen, Rabb is quietly averaging a double-double and has had 12 or more rebounds in eight of his past 11 games. He's still figuring things out and needs to add strength, but he's a phenomenal talent this late in the draft.
Projected record: 41-41
19. Oklahoma City Thunder
OG Anunoby
Indiana
Sophomore
Forward
Anunoby underwent knee surgery and will miss the remainder of the season. NBA teams are still trying to discern the exact nature of the injury and what his rehab timetable will be.
Regardless, most teams still see him as a potential top-20 pick, even if he can't play his rookie season in the NBA. His combination of raw strength, power and the ability to stretch the floor make him an elite 3-and-D-type prospect. The Thunder have been searching for a long-term wing solution. If they're patient, Anunoby should deliver.
Projected record: 45-37
De'Aaron Fox
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard
Drafting a young point guard has been a need for years. Luckily, there is still one on the board for Sacramento.
The depth of the draft remains ridiculous. Fox is having a terrific season for the Wildcats and might be the fastest player in the draft, yet he can barely crack the top 10.
He doesn't give the Kings the shooting they need, but he's a major prospect in every other area.
Odds of winning lottery: 1.1 percent (If the Kings move ahead of Philadelphia in the lottery and are in the top 10, they swap spots with the Sixers. If Sacramento's pick falls outside the top 10, it will go to Chicago.)
Projected record: 34-48
11. Miami Heat
Harry Giles
Duke
Freshman
Forward
Giles remains the trickiest prospect in the draft to evaluate. He's playing anywhere from seven to 18 minutes a game. When he plays 14 minutes or more, good things seem to happen in flashes. But overall, he still doesn't look like the Giles we saw in high school. It will be hard for teams to draft him over some of the less talented but less risky players above him.
I don't think the Heat (or Wolves, for that matter) should pass on him, though. His upside is as high as anyone's in the draft. He's shaking off a lot of rust right now, but when he gets fully healthy, he has superstar potential.
If the Heat can grab him here, they'll be thrilled. His work ethic and toughness fit Miami's culture perfectly. In a year or two, this pick could be the steal of the draft.
Odds of winning lottery: 0.8 percent
Projected record: 36-46
12. Portland Trail Blazers
Miles Bridges
Michigan State
Freshman
Forward
Bridges' hot start has cooled a bit thanks to injuries and a tough season for the Spartans. He remains an appealing prospect who could be a nice long-term fit in Portland.
He's versatile and super athletic and has proved he can hit college 3s at a 40 percent clip. He's still turnover prone, but it's often because he's asked to do too much. Put him around young guards Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum and I think he'll thrive.
Odds of winning lottery: 0.7 percent
Projected record: 36-46
13. Milwaukee Bucks
Justin Patton
Creighton
Freshman
Center
Patton has been on a meteoric rise and is the highest-rated center on our Big Board. The Bucks just dumped Miles Plumlee and have been looking to move Greg Monroe for a year.
Although Patton isn't the type of player who will come in and dominate right away for the Bucks, he's the long-term building block they've been looking for in the middle. He has tremendous upside and seems to just be scratching the surface on what he can do.
Odds of winning lottery: 0.6 percent
Projected record: 37-45
14. Charlotte Hornets
Robert Williams
Texas A&M
Freshman
Forward
Williams is raw, but his athleticism and defensive potential are off the charts.
The Hornets really don't have anyone on the roster who fits that mold anymore.
Odds of winning lottery: 0.5 percent
Projected record: 38-44
15. Denver Nuggets
T.J. Leaf
UCLA
Freshman
Forward
Leaf is one of the most gifted scorers in college basketball. He has the full arsenal of skills on the offensive end of the court. Defensively, however, he's a bit of a liability, and that causes him to slide just a bit down the draft board.
The Nuggets lack elite athletes in the front court, so this might not be a perfect fit. However, his offensive skills are so strong that I think he'd still make a convincing case.
Projected record: 38-44
16. Chicago Bulls
Jarrett Allen
Texas
Freshman
Center
The Bulls are a mess and the rumblings that there could be major changes to the front office and team this summer appear well-founded. Trying to discern what's next for them, given the team chaos, is difficult.
Allen is a project, but an intriguing one. His defense is ahead of his offense right now, but over the course of the past few weeks he has been making major offensive strides as well.
He seems to be coming on at the right time and could be a nice backup to Robin Lopez for the next year or two while he adds strength and experience.
Projected record: 39-43
17. Detroit Pistons
Terrance Ferguson
Australia
Age: 19
Guard
Ferguson's stint in Australia has been solid. He's not shooting the ball particularly well, but he has picked up valuable experience and teams like his long-term upside as a shooter. The Pistons could use depth behind Kentavious Caldwell-Pope at the 2.
Projected record: 40-42
18. Indiana Pacers
Ivan Rabb
Cal
Sophomore
Forward
The Pacers don't have a lot of real depth behind Thaddeus Young at the 4. Rabb has probably moved from overrated to underrated this season.
While scouts are infatuated with the freshmen, Rabb is quietly averaging a double-double and has had 12 or more rebounds in eight of his past 11 games. He's still figuring things out and needs to add strength, but he's a phenomenal talent this late in the draft.
Projected record: 41-41
19. Oklahoma City Thunder
OG Anunoby
Indiana
Sophomore
Forward
Anunoby underwent knee surgery and will miss the remainder of the season. NBA teams are still trying to discern the exact nature of the injury and what his rehab timetable will be.
Regardless, most teams still see him as a potential top-20 pick, even if he can't play his rookie season in the NBA. His combination of raw strength, power and the ability to stretch the floor make him an elite 3-and-D-type prospect. The Thunder have been searching for a long-term wing solution. If they're patient, Anunoby should deliver.
Projected record: 45-37
20. Atlanta Hawks
John Collins
Wake Forest
Sophomore
Forward
The Hawks' entire crop of power forwards is set to enter free agency this summer. Collins ranks second in the NCAA in player efficiency rating (PER).
He's crazy efficient around the basket, a great athlete and a very good defender. He might be the most underrated player on the board. I won't be surprised if he moves up significantly before the draft.
Projected record: 45-37
21. Washington Wizards
Zach Collins
Gonzaga
Freshman
Center
Marcin Gortat is still holding his own in the middle for the Wizards, but they'll need to start thinking about a long-term replacement and Collins is a very intriguing option.
He can be a modern 5 who stretches the floor and protects the rim. He has been one of the most efficient players in college basketball and ranks fourth in the NCAA in PER.
Projected record: 47-35
22. Portland Trail Blazers (via Grizzlies)*
Rodions Kurucs
Latvia
Age: 19
Forward
The Blazers picked up this Memphis pick from the Nuggets in the Mason Plumlee-for-Jusuf Nurkic swap.
Kurucs is starting to get more playing time in Spain and has made the most of it, averaging 15 PPG in his past five games. He's a project, but, with three first-round picks, the Blazers can afford to stash him overseas and wait for him to develop.
Projected record (Grizzlies): 48-34 (Portland will get Memphis' first-round pick -- through a trade with Denver -- if it falls outside the top five.)
23. Utah Jazz
Isaiah Hartenstein
Germany
Age: 18
Forward
The Jazz don't have any real needs right now, which gives them flexibility to either take a project or to find a player who can fit into the rotation someway.
While Hartenstein might be the least ready of the 4s we've ranked, there is a high ceiling with him. There aren't many 7-footers with his combination of athleticism, elite skill level and motor. He can be volatile, but he should be worth a gamble at this stage of the draft.
Projected record: 49-33
24. Toronto Raptors*
Ike Anigbogu
UCLA
Freshman
Center
This is the type of player Toronto GM Masai Ujiri loves: underrated and a little raw but with athleticism and toughness that should translate to the NBA.
Anigbogu doesn't play a huge role for UCLA, but his athleticism and shot-blocking have turned a lot of heads.
Projected record: 50-32 (Toronto will get the better pick between its own selection and the Clippers'.)
25. Orlando Magic (via Raptors)*
Tyler Lydon
Syracuse
Sophomore
Forward
The Magic picked up this selection in the Serge Ibaka trade.
Lydon has some similarities with Ibaka -- his two best attributes are his 3-point shooting and ability to attack the rim.
His lack of strength (a problem Ibaka did not have) is what lowers him a bit on our board.
Projected record (Clippers): 51-31 (Orlando will get the worse pick between the Raptors and Clippers.)
26. Brooklyn Nets (via Celtics)*
Andrew Jones
Texas
Freshman
Guard
Losing out on players like Fultz and Ball must be heartbreaking for the Nets. At this point in the draft, they aren't likely to land anywhere near that caliber of player. But there are a lot of scouts who feel like Jones is a major sleeper.
He's an elite athlete, plays above the rim and has shown the ability to knock down the 3. He's really come along in Big 12 play. The Nets need to continue to swing for the fences with these late draft picks and hope they strike gold. Jones is a good bet down this low.
Projected record (Celtics): 53-29
27. Portland Trail Blazers (via Cavaliers)*
Kostja Mushidi
Belgium
Age: 18
Guard
This is the third first-rounder for the Blazers, and I wouldn't be surprised if they go international.
Mushidi is a raw prospect who needs to improve his shooting, but his athleticism and scoring talent make him an attractive option. He ended up averaging 14.7 PPG for Germany in the FIBA Under-18 European Championships.
His 8-for-42 shooting from 3 is the big reason he isn't higher on our board.
Projected record (Cavaliers): 56-26 (Portland owns Cleveland's first-round pick.)
John Collins
Wake Forest
Sophomore
Forward
The Hawks' entire crop of power forwards is set to enter free agency this summer. Collins ranks second in the NCAA in player efficiency rating (PER).
He's crazy efficient around the basket, a great athlete and a very good defender. He might be the most underrated player on the board. I won't be surprised if he moves up significantly before the draft.
Projected record: 45-37
21. Washington Wizards
Zach Collins
Gonzaga
Freshman
Center
Marcin Gortat is still holding his own in the middle for the Wizards, but they'll need to start thinking about a long-term replacement and Collins is a very intriguing option.
He can be a modern 5 who stretches the floor and protects the rim. He has been one of the most efficient players in college basketball and ranks fourth in the NCAA in PER.
Projected record: 47-35
22. Portland Trail Blazers (via Grizzlies)*
Rodions Kurucs
Latvia
Age: 19
Forward
The Blazers picked up this Memphis pick from the Nuggets in the Mason Plumlee-for-Jusuf Nurkic swap.
Kurucs is starting to get more playing time in Spain and has made the most of it, averaging 15 PPG in his past five games. He's a project, but, with three first-round picks, the Blazers can afford to stash him overseas and wait for him to develop.
Projected record (Grizzlies): 48-34 (Portland will get Memphis' first-round pick -- through a trade with Denver -- if it falls outside the top five.)
23. Utah Jazz
Isaiah Hartenstein
Germany
Age: 18
Forward
The Jazz don't have any real needs right now, which gives them flexibility to either take a project or to find a player who can fit into the rotation someway.
While Hartenstein might be the least ready of the 4s we've ranked, there is a high ceiling with him. There aren't many 7-footers with his combination of athleticism, elite skill level and motor. He can be volatile, but he should be worth a gamble at this stage of the draft.
Projected record: 49-33
24. Toronto Raptors*
Ike Anigbogu
UCLA
Freshman
Center
This is the type of player Toronto GM Masai Ujiri loves: underrated and a little raw but with athleticism and toughness that should translate to the NBA.
Anigbogu doesn't play a huge role for UCLA, but his athleticism and shot-blocking have turned a lot of heads.
Projected record: 50-32 (Toronto will get the better pick between its own selection and the Clippers'.)
25. Orlando Magic (via Raptors)*
Tyler Lydon
Syracuse
Sophomore
Forward
The Magic picked up this selection in the Serge Ibaka trade.
Lydon has some similarities with Ibaka -- his two best attributes are his 3-point shooting and ability to attack the rim.
His lack of strength (a problem Ibaka did not have) is what lowers him a bit on our board.
Projected record (Clippers): 51-31 (Orlando will get the worse pick between the Raptors and Clippers.)
26. Brooklyn Nets (via Celtics)*
Andrew Jones
Texas
Freshman
Guard
Losing out on players like Fultz and Ball must be heartbreaking for the Nets. At this point in the draft, they aren't likely to land anywhere near that caliber of player. But there are a lot of scouts who feel like Jones is a major sleeper.
He's an elite athlete, plays above the rim and has shown the ability to knock down the 3. He's really come along in Big 12 play. The Nets need to continue to swing for the fences with these late draft picks and hope they strike gold. Jones is a good bet down this low.
Projected record (Celtics): 53-29
27. Portland Trail Blazers (via Cavaliers)*
Kostja Mushidi
Belgium
Age: 18
Guard
This is the third first-rounder for the Blazers, and I wouldn't be surprised if they go international.
Mushidi is a raw prospect who needs to improve his shooting, but his athleticism and scoring talent make him an attractive option. He ended up averaging 14.7 PPG for Germany in the FIBA Under-18 European Championships.
His 8-for-42 shooting from 3 is the big reason he isn't higher on our board.
Projected record (Cavaliers): 56-26 (Portland owns Cleveland's first-round pick.)