Jameis Winston or Marcus Mariota? NFL executives make their pick
Jameis Winston seemed to have a slight edge on fellow Heisman Trophy winner Marcus Mariota in Year 1 in the NFL.
In the 2015 draft, Winston was picked first and Mariota was picked second. Winston had the better rookie season. Mariota struggled through injuries and growing pains in Year 1, while Winston had a 4,000-yard passing season. Mariota's one claim over Winston was a 42-14 Tennessee Titans win against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in their NFL debuts in which the Titans QB had four touchdown passes and no interceptions.
Plenty has happened to them over the past year and a half. Both have a new head coach in Year 2, and both have a better team around them in Year 2. So which young quarterback has the brightest future?
We asked five NFL front-office executives about which QB they'd want on their team right now -- and for the next 10 years. The results were close, but one has the edge.
Here's what the executives, who were granted anonymity, said about the debate between Winston and Mariota:
What gives Mariota the edge in Year 2
"I take Mariota over Winston by a mile," NFL executive No. 1 told me. "He takes care of the ball better than Jameis. He has a great command of the passing offense. Sometimes, Jameis will make that horrendous throw that will cost you. And then you watch Marcus run. He has a great sense of when to do it."
This season, Mariota has thrown eight interceptions to Winston's 10, but he also has been involved in five turnovers that have resulted in touchdowns, two on pick-sixes and three in which his fumble was returned for a touchdown. Winston has one pick-six and one fumble returned for a score.
Mariota's biggest jump has been his play in the red zone. He's third in the league with 16 red zone touchdowns, completing 29 of 45 passes (64.4 percent). Winston is tied for fifth with 14 touchdown passes and a 52.3 completion percentage.
The closer Mariota gets to the goal line, the better he has been. He hasn't been sacked and hasn't thrown an interception in the red zone. Winston hasn't thrown a pick, but he has been sacked four times in the red zone.
"This is where [Mariota's] feet help him out," NFL executive No. 2 said. "You have to worry about him running, and that's where he can burn you with a touchdown pass."
The interesting part of this debate is that each ranks among the best quarterbacks in the game inside the 20. They know how to take advantage of opportunities.
Different styles of play
"I just think you get a better whole package with Mariota," NFL executive No. 3 said. "Don't get me wrong -- Winston is a good athlete, but he is a pocket passer. He's not going to beat you with his feet. Marcus reminds me so much of Steve Young. He's not a running quarterback. He's a smart quarterback who can run."
Mariota doesn't force the run. In 11 starts this season, he has 45 carries for 264 yards. Last season, he had 252 yards on 34 carries in 12 starts. Surprisingly, Winston has rushed more times than Mariota, but he hasn't always been effective. Winston has averaged 3.6 yards with his 86 career carries, while Mariota averages 6.5 yards per rush.
"What's helped Mariota this year is, his running ability is cutting down the number of negative plays," NFL executive No. 4 said.
Former Titans coach Ken Whisenhunt lost his job because ownership felt he wasn't doing enough to protect Mariota, who was sacked 38 times last season, from injury. Mariota has been sacked only 18 times this season.
Winston's ability to get rid of the ball quickly has allowed him to stay reasonably low in the sack numbers. He has been sacked 50 times in 26 starts, less than two per game.
"I'll be for Jameis in this debate," NFL executive No. 5 said. "I think Marcus has more around him. He has a better offensive line. They have built a great running game around him. I can argue the Titans are slightly better than the Bucs for weapons. With Vincent Jackson out of the season, what do the Bucs have other than Mike Evans?"
Preconceived opinions of the two QBs
"I can't change my original scouting report on Mariota," NFL executive No. 1 said. "I had him as the best quarterback to come into the league in a decade. I just think he had everything. He's accurate. He's a great runner. He's smart. He works hard, and he's always trying to get better. He's the complete deal."
"Both are great young quarterbacks, but I liked Winston the best coming out of college," NFL executive No. 4 added. "What you liked first about him was he was coming out of a pro-style offense. He didn't have to change his game too much because he ran an NFL offense in college. You like the fact he's a pocket passer who is smart."
There is always going to an argument about quarterbacks entering the league from spread or air raid offenses. Those quarterbacks need time to develop because most have never run a huddle. They come into the league without the experience of doing three-, five- and seven-step drops. Many haven't been asked to go through progressions.
"I didn't think it would take Marcus long to make the transition from college," a pro-Mariota NFL executive No. 5 said. "He picked up the ability to call the pass protections to his linemen in the first couple weeks of training camp. He has no troubles learning how to retreat from center. I also think it helped him with Mike Mularkey's offense, because he made Marcus work a lot from the line of scrimmage."
Those in favor of Winston were right about how natural it was for him to fit into an NFL offense and play from under center. Winston is completing almost 65 percent of his passes in nonshotgun situations this season. Mariota is about 10 percent worse.
Different personalities
While the quarterbacking styles of Winston and Mariota are different, so are their personalities. Mariota is quiet and reserved. Winston is more outgoing. Both styles work. They are totally respected by their teammates.
"Marcus is never going to be the one speaking too much," NFL executive No. 4 said. "He prefers working behind the scenes. You see him trying to minimize his time in front of the cameras and doing the interviews. He would rather concentrate on working with his teammates and getting the job done."
"Jameis is very respectful, but he is more outgoing than Marcus," NFL executive No. 5 added. "You have to remember how smart he is. The guy has a photographic memory. Sometimes he doesn't get credit for how smart he is. What you can see immediately was how the team embraced him last year. He was the leader from the start of last year. Players had his back. They all loved him."
What has been fun to watch is how both offenses have quietly grown under the direction of both quarterbacks. The Titans have averaged 25.5 points per game this season, a four-point increase over Mariota's starts as a rookie. Winston has taken the Bucs' offense from 21.4 to 23.5 points per game. Anything around 24 points a game is considered playoff-worthy.
The final verdict
Of the five executives polled about Winston vs. Mariota, three chose Mariota and two chose Winston. All stressed, however, that the margin between the two is slim and that both are quality signal-callers with bright futures.
In fact, you get the feeling that little has changed the opinions of these executives since the 2015 draft. Those who liked Winston then, prefer him. Those who liked Mariota then, prefer him. Both players have moved their franchises closer to the playoffs faster than anyone thought. In 2014, these were the two worst teams in football. In 2016, they are in the middle of the pack.
According to the executives polled, the Bucs and Titans each hit home runs in the 2015 draft. Now let's see which quarterback can get his team into the playoffs first.
at the McCarron love. What about that guy screams franchise QB? 
