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Skooby

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Best NBA rookies: Top shooter, passer, 19-year-old and more



This NBA season hasn't been a banner year for rookies but some first-year players are standing out, led by 2014 No. 3 overall pick Joel Embiid.

Which rookies have provided the most instant offense, the most energy and the best playmaking? Let's take a look at the best rookies in a few important categories.






Best Interior Defender: Joel Embiid | Philadelphia 76ers

Embiid's NBA debut after a two-year absence due to a fractured navicular bone in his right foot, which required multiple surgeries, has saved us from the most uninspiring Rookie of the Year race in recent memory.

With his playing time limited in deference to health, Embiid has packed remarkable production into 25 minutes per game. Per 36 minutes, he's averaging 27.8 points, 10.8 rebounds and 3.3 blocks. Of all the rookies in NBA history, only another Philadelphia center, Wilt Chamberlain, scored more prolifically per minute, according to Basketball-Reference.com.

Perhaps more impressive than Embiid's volume is that he has managed to score with above-average efficiency (.572 true shooting percentage) while finishing a remarkable 36.1 percent of the 76ers' plays with a shot, trip to the free throw line or turnover. Before Embiid, Ben Gordon (31.9 percent) and Cedric Ceballos (31.3 percent in 11.6 minutes per game) were the lone rookies with a usage rate north of 30 percent. Neither reached league average in true shooting percentage.

Beyond Embiid's offensive contributions, he also has the top defensive rating in ESPN's real plus-minus (plus-1.4 RPM per 100 possessions) among rookies. With Embiid on the court, Philadelphia has allowed just 101.1 points per 100 possessions, which would lead the league, according to NBA.com/Stats.

Best Shooter: Buddy Hield | New Orleans Pelicans

Hield has shaken off a poor start -- he shot 23.6 percent from 3-point range in October and November -- to deliver the kind of perimeter punch we expected from the high-scoring former Oklahoma star. Since Dec. 1, Hield is making half of his 3-point attempts and ranks ninth in the league with 47 makes.

The rest of Hield's game has been slower to come around. Per NBA.com/Stats, the Pelicans have still been 2.7 points per 100 possessions better with Hield on the bench during his hot-shooting streak, explaining why he still ranks in the league's bottom five in RPM. But those faults would be a lot harder to overlook if Hield also wasn't making shots.

Best Passer/Perimeter Defender: Malcolm Brogdon | Milwaukee Bucks

Since Brogdon wins two categories, it's no surprise that he's been the most productive player from this year's draft class. (He's the one 2016 draftee to exceed 0.5 WARP thus far; Embiid was drafted in 2014.)

The second-round pick out of Virginia replaced Matthew Dellavedova as Milwaukee's starting point guard when Dellavedova was injured in late December and has yet to relinquish the job.

Why has Brogdon exceeded expectations? First, he's shown the ability to share ballhandling duties with point forward Giannis Antetokounmpo, averaging 5.8 assists per 36 minutes -- tops among rookies and far better than the 3.3 per 36 minutes he averaged as a college senior.

Second, Brogdon has made 42.4 percent of his 3-pointers after shooting 36.5 percent at Virginia (which did improve to 39.1 percent as a senior). Odds are Brogdon's 3-point percentage will regress to the mean, but he's shown enough other skills to remain a useful contributor.

What isn't surprising is the way Brogdon, last season's ACC Defensive Player of the Year, has quickly thrived at that end of the floor. At 6-foot-5, Brogdon has enough size to defend either guard position, and his length (his wingspan was measured at 6-foot-10½ at the draft combine) fits perfectly into the Bucks' defensive philosophy.


Best 19-year-old: Jamal Murray | Denver Nuggets

The NBA is a harsh place for teenagers, as the performance of the nine rookies who have yet to celebrate their 20th birthday has shown. While No. 2 overall pick Brandon Ingram and Phoenix Suns starter Marquese Chriss have gotten more playing time, Murray has been better on a per-minute basis.

The Canadian guard has been more efficient than his 37.3 percent shooting would suggest by virtue of taking more than half his shots from 3-point range. Murray's ability to create his own shot -- he has made more unassisted 2-pointers than assisted ones, per Basketball-Reference.com -- is also an encouraging sign for his future. The Nuggets don't yet need big minutes from Murray, but he might ultimately prove to be their best young guard.

Best Stretch-4: Davis Bertans | San Antonio Spurs

With apologies to Domantas Sabonis (shooting a surprising 37.5 percent from 3-point range as a starter) and Dario Saric (who's playing plenty of small forward), Bertans gets the nod.

The 2011 second-round pick, who came to the NBA this season, is known as "Lat Bonner" in honor of his Latvian heritage and Spurs predecessor Matt Bonner.

Bertans, 24, has a quicker release than Bonner and has proved to be equally accurate from long distance in a small sample, making 40.7 percent of his 59 3-point attempts. As Jonathan Tjarks detailed on the Ringer earlier this week, Bertans' ability to drive to attack hard closeouts and find teammates might be his most impressive skill. Bertans is averaging 2.1 assists per 36 minutes, more than Bonner ever did.

Best Energizers: Mindaugas Kuzminskas and Willy Hernangomez | New York Knicks

The Knicks have another candidate for this honor, undrafted point guard Ron Baker, which might suggest a certain lack of energy from their starting five, but it is also testament to the kind of players they found to fill out their bench on the cheap this summer.

When Hernangomez (a 2015 second-round pick who came to the NBA this season) and Kuzminskas (a European veteran) have teamed up this season, New York has outscored opponents by 5.0 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com/Stats -- not bad for a team that typically sports a negative net rating.

The frontcourt combination has spurred multiple comebacks this season.

Best Instant Offense: Kay Felder | Cleveland Cavaliers

Nobody has to tell Felder, the lowest-drafted player from the 2016 draft to make an NBA roster, to shoot. Despite joining the defending champions, Felder has used 23.3 percent of his team's plays, which ranks third among rookies with at least 200 minutes behind Embiid and Jonathan Gibson (since released).

Felder's shoot-first approach has led to some ugly outings, like missing all six of his attempts in garbage time against Portland earlier this week. But during the six games in which he has played at least 15 minutes, Felder has averaged 21.6 points per 36 minutes on 51.0 percent effective shooting.
 

Skooby

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Player rankings: Deepest class of stars since MJ, Magic and Bird?


How do this season's best players compare to past NBA classes? Has 2016-17 featured the deepest crop of dominant superstars since Michael Jordan, Magic Johnson and Larry Bird were playing?

Let's take a look in our weekly player rankings, comparing the latest eye-popping stats to other great years in NBA history.






Next-level stat-stuffing


The NBA has always been a star-driven league, and it certainly feels like there is even more top-shelf talent in recent seasons. In fact, game score -- a metric that combines a player's box-score stats into one all-encompassing number -- emphatically agrees.

Monday marked the exact midpoint of the regular season with 615 of 1,230 games being played, serving as a natural time to check in on our season-long rankings. Russell Westbrook and James Harden remain neck-and-neck at the top, followed by Anthony Davis, Kevin Durant and LeBron James.


There are now a whopping 10 players this season with an average game score of 20. Just how good is that? Over the past three decades, only seven players have averaged career game scores of 20: Jordan, James, Johnson, Bird, Charles Barkley, Durant and Karl Malone. That's it -- first-ballot Springfield type of stuff.

There have been 150 instances of a player averaging a game score of at least 20 for a season, dating back to 1983-84, but that only includes 39 players overall (unsurprisingly, guys such as MJ and LeBron have done it a lot). That list of 39 includes 22 Hall of Famers, and the six HOF-eligible players who haven't made it yet are Kiki Vandeweghe, Kevin Johnson, Michael Adams, Chris Webber, Tracy McGrady and Gilbert Arenas.

Another 10 instances could be added to that total if the current pace keeps ups, including five players who have never done it before. Another five -- DeMar DeRozan, Kyle Lowry, John Wall, Damian Lillard and reigning MVP Stephen Curry -- are knocking on the door with average game scores of at least 19.

Cumulative rankings*
Player Avg. Game Score
1. Russell Westbrook 24.2
2. James Harden 24.1
3. Anthony Davis 23.7
4. Kevin Durant 22.6
5. LeBron James 21.7
6. Giannis Antetokounmpo 21.4
7. DeMarcus Cousins 20.9
8. Isaiah Thomas 20.9
9. Jimmy Butler 20.7
10. Kawhi Leonard 20.1
*Through 12 weeks


To articulate just how dominant of a season it has been for individual performances, let's start with the last name on the list above: Kawhi Leonard.

By many accounts, Leonard is having the best season of his career. Though some of the defensive and shooting numbers may be slightly down for the two-time defensive player of the year, he has continued to evolve into a premier No. 1 option and deserves to be a starter on All-Star Weekend in New Orleans. He just completed his best week of the season, finishing second in average game score behind only Anthony Davis while averaging 33 points on 65 percent shooting to go along with his usual two steals and one block per game.

That's what it took to climb back into the top 10 of our rankings for the first time in more than a month. And as amazing as Leonard has been, game score shows that nine players have more completely filled the box score this season.

While there's still a second half of the season to play, it's almost unprecedented to have this many individuals playing at this level. By comparison, there were only five players who finished last season with an average game score of 20. As recently as 2010-11, just one player in the entire league performed at that level, and it was LeBron. In James' rookie season in 2003-04, Kevin Garnett was the only player to reach that threshold. Ditto for the post-Jordan season in 1998-99 when only Shaquille O'Neal did it.

To find a season in which there were this many players performing at this level, you have to go back more than two decades, to before The Dream Team existed. In 1990-91, the last season of the Jordan-Bird-Magic era, there were 11 players to hit our magic number.

Best average game scores (1990-91)
Player Avg. Game Score
Michael Jordan 26.2
David Robinson 23.7
Charles Barkley 23.7
Karl Malone 22.9
Michael Adams 21.0
Magic Johnson 20.9
Chris Mullin 20.7
Kevin Johnson 20.6
Patrick Ewing 20.4
John Stockton 20.2
Dominique Wilkins 20.2
Source: Basketball Reference


That doesn't even include the likes of Hakeem Olajuwon (19.8), Reggie Miller (18.3), Clyde Drexler (18.3), Scottie Pippen (16.7), Isiah Thomas (13.1) or Bird (17.0).

So how does this season's group stack up with the stars of 1990-91? Among the current group of 10 players, only LeBron James is over the age of 28. Collectively, the average age of today's group is 26.5, a full year younger than the group from 1990-91. So even if the production matches up, there might be more room for improvement in the modern crop.

In the 25 seasons spanning 1990-91 to 2016-17, less than four players per season finished with an average game score of 20. The next-most prolific season in between was 2005-06, when eight players matched our mark.

We're not saying this group is better than the 1990-91 group, which gave us the Dream Team and an incredible 29 Hall of Famers. And, of course, game score doesn't capture everything. However, it's pretty clear that the general feeling about crazy box scores has some serious substance.

This star-driven league is saturated with more high-level performers than perhaps any other point in recent history. It's a great time to be an NBA fan.

As for last week, Anthony Davis led the way, finishing with an average game score of 35.0 in two games.

Who won the week?
Player Avg. Game Score
1. Anthony Davis 35.0
2. Kawhi Leonard 29.5
3. Devin Booker 25.6
4. Nikola Jokic 25.2
5. James Harden 24.4
6. DeMarcus Cousins 23.7
7. Karl-Anthony Towns 23.3
8. Gordon Hayward 22.7
9. DeAndre Jordan 22.7
10. DeMar DeRozan 22.6


Best of the rest
  • Though he missed a game, Davis was nothing short of brilliant in his two outings last week, averaging 38.0 points, 16.0 rebounds and 3.0 blocks per game on 62 percent shooting. While we reserve our unofficial "Best Week of the Season Championship Belt" for players who appear in at least three games, Davis' game score of 35.0 would rank No. 1. He now has seven games this season with at least 35 points, 10 rebounds and three blocks. The rest of the NBA has combined to do it four times.
  • Devin Booker took his game international and was sensational. With both of Phoenix's games last week in Mexico, Booker put on a show, dropping 39 in both contests while shooting a scorching 9-of-12 from beyond the 3-point line. Booker was the first Suns player to score at least 39 points in back-to-back games since Tom Chambers in 1990. Booker now owns the two highest totals in a regular-season game played in Mexico.
  • The Clippers keep rolling in 2017. After Chris Paul led the charge in L.A.'s first four wins, it was DeAndre Jordan's turn to take a starring role last week as he posted back-to-back 20-rebound games in wins over the Magic and Lakers. It's actually the second time since the calendar flipped to 2017 that Jordan has had back-to-back 20-rebound games. Jordan is averaging 18 rebounds in six games in January. Let's hope the thumb injury Paul suffered on Monday night is a minor one.
 

Skooby

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Predicting NFL free agency's biggest spenders, penny pinchers


NFL teams were told last month to expect the 2017 salary cap to be around $168 million. Some believe it could grow to as much as $170 million. There is about $1.1 billion of cap room available for 2017 among the league's 32 teams, but that soon will change as teams re-sign players to extensions and dole out franchise tags.

General managers realize, however, that they can't build championships through free agency alone. Sure, the New York Giants improved their defense by investing more than $200 million in free agency last offseason and got to the playoffs in 2016, but those success stories are rare.

The Jacksonville Jaguars ($56.7 million of 2017 cap room) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($61.2 million) have plenty of room this offseason, but they have spent big money in free agency over the past few years and will be more careful with their investments. It's strange to see the New England Patriots with $66.9 million in cap room, but the Patriots don't go big into free agency. They usually go for six to eight lower-cost free agents for depth.

As we look toward the offseason, here are five teams I expect to make several moves in free agency, and five more I expect to be frugal (all cap numbers are current as of Monday, Jan. 16):

Big spenders
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Cleveland Browns

2017 cap room: $105 million
The Browns elected to minimize free-agency spending last year in order to load up on compensatory picks for the free agents who left the team. Two of those compensatory picks -- a third- and fourth-round pick -- have been used in trades. The Browns have only six unrestricted free agents and the team hopes to retain wide receiver Terrelle Pryor and linebacker Jamie Collins. The rest of the free agents aren't going to get a big enough market to gain compensatory picks, so the Browns can have a clear conscience spending big on the roster. The Browns need everything. After hiring Gregg Williams as defensive coordinator, they have to decide if they want to invest in 4-3 defensive players coming off their season in a 3-4. Obviously, finding a new quarterback is their main mission, but they have to decide if they want to acquire one in free agency, the draft or via trade.


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San Francisco 49ers
2017 cap room: $76.9 million


Quarterback Colin Kaepernick is expected to void his contract and become a free agent. That will free up another $14.4 million, so the 49ers will have more than $91 million of cap room. First, they have to figure out who will be the general manager in charge of fixing the roster and spending their money. They also have to get a new coach after firing Chip Kelly. It's pretty evident that most of the money will be spent on offense. Kelly was one-and-done because he didn't have enough weapons on offense. Carlos Hyde is a good running back. Torrey Smith, who is making $8 million a season, is their lone receiving threat, and the lack of help at receiver limited him to a 20-catch season. Quarterback also will be at the top of their shopping list.

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Tennessee Titans
2017 cap room: $63.8 million


General manager Jon Robinson won't go crazy in free agency, but he can make some important strategic hits just like he did last offseason. And why not? The Titans were a tiebreaker away from winning the AFC South. They have one of the best young quarterbacks in the league in Marcus Mariota. Coach Mike Mularkey has established a physical culture that works. The offensive line is solid. Robinson can work on upgrading the wide receiver position and cornerback. With Mariota in the final two years of his rookie contract, this is the time to add key starters -- he will begin commanding big money that would eat up a good portion of the salary cap after that. This is their time to jump to the front of the division.

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Chicago Bears
2017 cap room: $52.3 million


This is Year 3 for coach John Fox and general manager Ryan Pace. During the first two years, the Bears have tried to bulk up their front seven on defense. More work has to be done in the secondary, but the Bears have the money to rebuild some of the losses on offense. Quarterback Jay Cutler doesn't figure to be back. If they do a post-June 1 release on Cutler, that would add $9 million to their salary cap. The Bears have the ability to afford a veteran QB such as Tony Romo. They have to figure out if they can sign wide receiver Alshon Jeffery to a long-term deal, and will be on the lookout for receivers and potentially a tight end. Chicago would have the ability to afford one free-agent addition on the offensive line.

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Denver Broncos
2017 cap room: $31.5 million


The Broncos are my sleeper team in free agency. General manager John Elway has a new coach in Vance Joseph. He has only $2.261 million of his cap tied up in two quarterbacks, Trevor Siemian and Paxton Lynch. A lot of the resources will be used to fix the offensive line. Donald Stephenson, signed last offseason, struggled at right tackle. The Broncos might not pick up the four-year, $48 million option on left tackle Russell Okung. Over the past couple of years, Elway has been one of the best in using free agency to fix problems. After losing the Super Bowl to the Seattle Seahawks in 2013, he hit on Aqib Talib, T.J. Ward and DeMarcus Ware in free agency. Elway is smart and aggressive, and he doesn't want to fall behind in a tough AFC West.





Penny pinchers
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Dallas Cowboys
2017 cap room: approximately $19.1 million over the cap


With Dak Prescott at quarterback, the Cowboys don't plan on having Tony Romo on their 2017 cap at $24.7 million. They could do a post-June 1 release, save $14 million on the 2017 cap and push off $8.9 million to their 2018 cap. If Romo doesn't find a team that appeals to him, he can take a paycut and stay as the backup. The Cowboys have 18 unrestricted free agents, including starters Barry Church, Brandon Carr and Morris Claiborne, so they have to be smart about spending in the secondary. The team is pretty well set on offense with Prescott, Ezekiel Elliott and a great offensive line. Cowboys signings from the outside can't be too expensive.

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Kansas City Chiefs
2017 cap room: approximately $630,000 under the cap


The Chiefs will be over the cap once their season is over and they sign their practice-squad players to future contracts. Tackle Mitchell Schwartz was the Chiefs' only expensive signing last offseason, getting a five-year, $33 million deal. If they want to maintain the current roster, the Chiefs won't have a lot of flexibility looking outside for players. Fortunately, general manager John Dorsey does such a good job in the draft that the Chiefs have a solid team and now stand atop the AFC West.

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Green Bay Packers
2017 cap room: $35.5 million


The Packers always have ample cap room, but general manager Ted Thompson believes in homegrown talent and not using free agency. There are 34 draft choices on the active roster. It was rare for Thompson to go into free agency in the last offseason to get tight end Jared Cook, who signed a one-year deal at $2.75 million. The money will be invested in his homegrown talent. Guard T.J. Lang, linebacker Nick Perry, safety Micah Hyde, halfback Eddie Lacy and former first-round choice Datone Jones are all free agents.

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Cincinnati Bengals
2017 cap room: $43.9 million


The Bengals need a bounce-back year following a disappointing 6-9-1 season. Like the Packers, the Bengals invest in their own players. They have 34 draft choices on their 53-man roster. The Bengals spent $3.7 million on one-year deals this past offseason for linebacker Karlos Dansby and wide receiver Brandon LaFell. Their money will be invested in their own players again. They brought in only 10 new players to their 53-man roster at the start of the season. The offensive line is their priority. With the struggles of their young tackles, they will most likely re-sign left tackle Andrew Whitworth. Guard Kevin Zeitler is a free agent and could command more than $8 million a year. Cornerback Dre Kirkpatrick is a free agent too.

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Baltimore Ravens
2017 cap room: $13.7 million


The Ravens made two strong moves during the offseason, signing wide receiver Mike Wallace and safety Eric Weddle. Both signings worked out. This year, things will be tighter. Right tackle Rick Wagner and defensive lineman Brandon Williams are the key players to re-sign. Fullback Kyle Juszczyk is too important to the offense to lose. The Ravens do a great job with the cap, but they might not have enough money to spend to hit the market.
 

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Farm system rankings: The top 10


Eight of the top 10 teams could comfortably be called rebuilders, teams that traded away major-league talent in 2016 to add prospects. Even the Yankees, whether or not they used the term, were in rebuild mode last season, landing three top-100 prospects in their two big deadline deals. And yet there's also one team here that nearly reached the World Series last season, but is this high in the organization rankings because of the money it spent on Cubans in 2015 and because of some shrewd drafting that predates the current front office.

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1. Atlanta Braves
2016 rank: 1


Atlanta has been hoarding prospects, especially pitching prospects, for two years now, and the result is a system that is primed to produce good young players just as the team moves into its new stadium.
Law's 2017 Prospect Ranks

Schedule
Jan. 18: Farm system rankings, 30-21
Jan. 19: System rankings, 20-11
Jan. 20: System rankings, 10-1
Jan. 23: Top 100 -- Nos. 100-81
Jan. 24: Nos. 80-61
Jan. 25: Nos. 60-41
Jan. 26: Nos. 40-21
Jan. 27: Nos. 20-1
Jan. 28: Prospects who missed
Jan. 30: Top 10 prospects by team, AL and NL East
Jan. 31: Top 10 prospects by team, AL and NL Central
Feb. 1: Top 10 prospects by team, AL and NL West
Feb. 2: Top prospects by position
Feb. 3: Sleepers

» Law's 2016 rankings



This torrent of arms has entered the organization from two avenues. General manager John Coppolella has been trading for young pitching at every opportunity, and scouting director Brian Bridges has crushed pitching in his two drafts at the helm. There are players in this system with viable cases to be in the global top 100 but struggle to crack Atlanta’s top 10. They just took Ian Anderson third overall in the draft and he couldn’t even crack their top six. Their High-A rotation in 2017 could include four first-round picks and a major international signing, only one of whom will be 21 on opening day. It’s as if someone told Coppolella the axiom that you can never have too much pitching, and he just said, “hold my beer.”

They do have position players, primarily guys up the middle, including three high-end shortstop prospects, multiple center fielders, and the best prospect from last year’s July 2 class, Kevin Maitan, who might not stay at shortstop but has earned comparisons at the plate to a young Miguel Cabrera. They do lack power bats in the system, primarily at the upper levels, but there is just so much pitching here that it overwhelms that concern -- and if they just have a normal attrition rate among that pitching depth, they’ll have plenty of young arms left over to fill a major-league need via trade.

Coppolella has stayed opportunistic this winter, adding prospects who had fallen out of favor with their organizations, including two of Seattle’s top six prospects. You can make an argument for the Yankees deserving the top slot; I won’t dispute that they have more position-player talent. My vote is for the deluge of arms and up-the-middle players heading for Atlanta, giving them the best farm system in baseball.

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2. New York Yankees
2016 rank: 13


I’m so glad something is finally going right for Yankee fans, who have been suffering for, like, seven whole years now, but this system is absolutely loaded.

Brian Cashman went bananas once he got the green light to turn the roster over, flipping two very good relievers for enormous packages that gave the Yanks three of their current top six prospects. The other three are all recent first-round picks, and the system is full of the products of the team’s drafts, a side benefit of the end of their trades of prospects for veterans to prop up the aging big-league roster.

The system just keeps on going, with tons of pitching depth, a passel of natural shortstops -- we need a better collective noun for that; a "belanger" of shortstops, perhaps -– who will end up playing all over the diamond, and a lot of outfielders who rake. Even Dermis Garcia, who isn’t among their 20 best prospects, has 80 raw power and finished second in the advanced-rookie Appalachian League in homers as an 18-year-old.

There’s no weakness here. They will trot out teams full of prospects at every level, and several of them will show up in the Bronx this year. I don’t know if Gleyber Torres is the new Jeter or James Kaprelian the new Pettitte, but I’ll take that bet.

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3. San Diego Padres
2016 rank: 20


You could make a compelling case for any of the top three teams on my list to be first overall. In San Diego’s case, the argument would be that they boast more upside potential, more guys with huge ceilings that are 10 percent likely to happen (or less) than any other system.

The Padres went very young in their rebuild, and they went big. Six of their top 10 guys were 20 or younger in 2016, and they signed a huge batch of teenagers on July 2, dominating the class among both pitchers and position players. Their draft similarly went for high-ceiling players, leading off with Cal Quantrill -- who in hindsight might have been the best prospect in the class -- with several other rolls of the dice on other pitchers coming off injuries who are showing positive early returns.

They’re third on this list because nearly all of that value is far from the majors, and there’s risk on every one of those guys -- every teenage pitcher is a risk because of the natural attrition rate of arms, and some of these hitters haven’t even sniffed full-season baseball yet. They’re also more pitching-heavy, which entails a little more risk but probably makes sense given the market price for pitching. The major-league team might be ugly this year, but their affiliates will be fascinating to watch.

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4. Pittsburgh Pirates
2016 rank: 8


The Pirates return their top five prospects from last year, three of whom really boosted their stock and the likelihood of reaching their ceilings, and they added another premium guy to the mix with the emergence of 2014 draft pick Mitch Keller, an Iowa high school product who improved in every possible way in 2016.

Cole Tucker, their first pick from 2014, had a mostly positive return from shoulder surgery and returns to their top 10. Nick Kingham, who was a top 100 prospect before 2015, returned from Tommy John surgery and could see the big-league rotation this year. They also have stocked their upper levels with relief prospects who should help them avoid having to pay anyone to handle the seventh through ninth innings for them.

If there’s a weakness here, it’s that they’re not as deep as the three teams ahead of them, in part because they traded two second-tier prospects to Toronto to lose Francisco Liriano’s salary. I was not as big a fan of their 2016 draft class as I was of their drafts the last few years before that.

But the Pirates should be in good shape to remain contenders for the next few years by turning over the big-league roster to the likes of Austin Meadows, Josh Bell and Tyler Glasnow, freeing up the cash to spend on pieces they can’t supply internally.

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5. Los Angeles Dodgers
2016 rank: 2


The top of the Dodgers’ system rivals anyone’s. They have four top prospects whom you could legitimately give a 20 percent chance to become stars in the big leagues, although two are pitchers, one of whom has already blown out his elbow once and the other of whom struggled to throw strikes when he first signed.

They’ve put money into the international market, aiming for ceiling, and have been more conservative in the draft, looking for lower-floor guys early and taking fliers after the second or third round. The system has also gotten deeper in some ways but lost two elite guys to promotion last year -- one of those won Rookie of the Year, you may have heard of him -- and depth in the midyear trade that brought in Rich Hill and Josh Reddikk.

There are systems that run deeper in likely regulars, because those teams have been able to focus just on building without having to balance that and contention, but for a team this good to have this kind of star potential in full-season ball is remarkable.
Law's methodology

Our 2017 farm rankings are based on seeing prospects and talking to scouts, executives and team officials. For the prospect rankings, at least 10 prospects will be ranked, though most teams will have more than 10 players in the minors who project to be more than replacement-level big leaguers -- and every one of those players count.

This means some teams near the top of the list get "credit" for having 20 or more of these types of players, whereas the bottom third may struggle to include 10. Favor is given to prospects with higher upside compared to those with less potential to become stars but with a higher probability of reaching the majors in some role.

As few clubs are able to afford stars on the open market, a team developing its own stars is critical for many franchises. A prospect who projects as a star is currency to acquire current major leaguers. Teams in the top 10 have potential stars and second-tier prospects with future big-league value, while teams in the bottom 10 don't have much of either.

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6. Milwaukee Brewers
2016 rank: 5


The Brewers’ rebuild has been overshadowed by the presence of three contenders in the division, but they’ve done a good job restocking the system in the last 18 months with two strong draft classes and huge returns on trades of veterans.

The trades of Jonathan Lucroy, Jean Segura and Carlos Gomez all yielded prospects on this year’s top 100. The system is still stacked in favor of hitters, with their top two pitching prospects both carrying significant reliever risk (Josh Hader’s delivery, Luis Ortiz’s conditioning), while Jorge Lopez, who broke out as a top prospect in 2015, had a disastrous follow-up season this year.

They need to see more return on the July 2 market, as their one big signing there, Gilbert Lara, is off to a rough start to his pro career, and they have no one else from that avenue in their top 20. Their 2014 draft class has been similarly unproductive to date. But what the new regime has accomplished in a short period of time gives the Brewers a chance to keep pace with their better-heeled competitors in the NL Central.
 

Skooby

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i
7. New York Mets
2016 rank: 16


The Mets were not aggressive at the trade deadline in July, and while that may have angered some of their fans, it means we won’t see someone they traded win a Rookie of the Year award in 2017. It also means a very strong, deep system remained intact, with two potential stars at the top of the system and a lot of pitching depth to potentially help, even as soon as this year with the sudden velocity spike Robert Gsellman saw in 2016.

Several years of strong draft results have restocked the system, first with young position players with upside and now with polished starting pitchers, led by Justin Dunn and Thomas Szapucki. Getting the team’s Low-A affiliate out of the hitters’ graveyard of Savannah won’t hurt matters either. And there’s more upside to come, with three of their top 20 prospects coming back from major injuries (Luis Carpio, Wuilmer Becerra, Anthony Kay).

i
8. Cincinnati Reds
2016 rank: 12


No system surprised me more from the start of this process (of putting together the annual prospects package) than the Reds’. The Reds’ highest ranking since I started these lists is the culmination of years of productive drafts, capped off by what looks right now like a tremendous one-two punch from their 2016 class, plus big international signings that look promising so far. They have a lot of pitching on the way -- probably not any aces, unless Robert “The Lighthouse” Stephenson turns it around -- to fill out the last three spots in any rotation and keep a steady supply of power arms for their bullpen.

They’ve got patient, polished bats coming, guys who will quietly make the Reds among the majors’ leaders in OBP if they all get there at once. And they have some lottery-ticket (high risk/low probability guys with huge ceilings) players further down the system, including catcher Tyler Stephenson, whose first full pro season was wrecked by injuries.

Cincinnati has more guys who project comfortably as fourth starters than most teams have pitching prospects, period. For a team that will never be able to buy a fourth starter on the open market, that’s critical. Their biggest obstacle now will be Triple-A, a level where many of their prospects have struggled upon reaching for the last few years.

i
9. Colorado Rockies
2016 rank: 7


The Rockies continue to stock up on arms, especially power arms, drafting Riley Pint -- a high school pitcher who would regularly hit 100 mph as a starter -- with their first pick in June, but the system overall is well balanced between pitchers and position players. Optimizing your roster is crucial when your home park is the most extreme offensive environment in MLB history, and the Rockies seem to be filling their system along those lines now, going for pitchers whose velocity will still play in the thin air and for position players who are athletic and/or project to be above-average defenders.

Nothing held their system back so much as injuries did in 2016, with Tom Murphy, Kyle Freeland, Tyler Nevin, Antonio Senzatela, and David Hill all losing significant time to the DL. The Rockies will probably never sign a major free-agent starting pitcher, so they have to develop their arms from within. The current system looks primed to fill out their rotation well behind Jonathan Gray.

i
10. Chicago White Sox
2016 rank: 22


The White Sox went from a probable bottom-five system to the border of the top 10 thanks to a great draft and two enormous hauls in trades of major leaguers, giving them the strongest farm system they’ve had in the 10 years I’ve been doing these rankings. Eight of their top 10 prospects weren’t in the organization on June 1, 2016. They may have landed a second first-round talent with Alec Hansen, their third pick of last year’s draft, and they’re going to be all over my top 25. So why aren’t they ranked higher?

Well, once you get past those eight guys, it falls off fast. Of their top 10 from last year, No. 1 graduated, and the next nine guys all had poor to lousy seasons. Some of the younger guys on the list still have promise but just haven’t performed. There’s no sugarcoating the lack of progress -- which I think made Rick Hahn’s decision to rebuild all the smarter, given what was on the way. And perhaps the infusion of older prospects will let the White Sox give some of their youngest prospects more time in low- or high-A to develop physically and mentally.

Everything’s coming up roses on Chicago’s South Side right now, but there’s still more work to be done.
 

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Rating top NBA draft freshman prospects, from Tier 1 to Tier 5

Is this the greatest college freshman class in the history of the NBA draft? How many potential stars could enter the league in 2017?

Here's our look at top prospects Lonzo Ball, Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson and more freshmen, based on feedback from NBA scouts and GMs to separate the players into tiers from 1 to 5.


It has been 11 years since the NBA changed the early-entry rules prohibiting high school seniors from entering the draft. In that time, college freshmen have taken over.

Just two freshmen were taken in the first round of the 2006 draft, the first one after the high school senior ban. By 2008, that number grew to 11, including eight in the lottery. A new record was set in 2015 with 13 freshman first-rounders and eight lottery picks.

The 2017 draft has a chance to shatter that record.

Our Top 100 currently projects 20 freshmen to be taken in the first round this year, with 12 in the lottery. And it's not just the sheer number of freshmen that has scouts excited. It's the quality as well.

I asked a number of NBA GMs and scouts to apply the tier system that I've been using for years.

A whopping 11 freshmen fell in one of the top three tiers, which essentially means a range from NBA superstars to regular starters. The most we've ever had was six in the 2014 draft, headlined by Joel Embiid, Jabari Parker and Andrew Wiggins.

So, let's get to the tiers.

Note: Players in each tier are listed alphabetically.







Tier 1 (Potential superstars)


Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA
Markelle Fultz, PG, Washington


Only eight players have been ranked in this slot since we started doing this in 2009: Blake Griffin, John Wall, Anthony Davis, Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, Jabari Parker, Karl-Anthony Towns and Ben Simmons.

That's pretty elite company.

2017 NBA draft


Get ready for Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball and the 2017 draft, with analysis from Chad Ford and other ESPN experts.





This year, there is still a major question among NBA scouts and GMs about whether there are any Tier 1 prospects. Most of the NBA people I spoke with were hesitant to make the call just yet and said they won't be sure until we get closer to the draft. However, Ball and Fultz have very high ceilings and pretty high floors. They received enough votes to rank here, despite a number of GMs and scouts ranking them as Tier 2 players.

Fultz's all-around game, athleticism and versatility make him a virtually can't-miss prospect. Ball's unique combination of size and court vision have some scouts comparing him to Jason Kidd with a jump shot.

"I'm not sure there are superstars in this draft," one GM said. "I'm not sure I see the guy that turns around a franchise. But both Ball and Fultz have that potential. The position that they play and the lack of great, young point guards right now in the league give them that potential. They could really lead a new generation of big, multi-positional point guards."





Tier 2 (All-Star potential)
Harry Giles, F/C, Duke
Josh Jackson, G/F, Kansas
Malik Monk, G, Kentucky
Dennis Smith Jr., PG, North Carolina State
Jayson Tatum, SF, Duke


All five of the players here got a small handful of Tier 1 votes -- especially Smith and Tatum. The general consensus in the race for the No. 1 pick seems to be wide open. Only Monk and Giles received any Tier 3 votes from NBA folks.

Smith and Jackson both have elite athletic ability to go along with great passing skills, but inconsistent jump shots (especially for Jackson) hurt their cases for Tier 1.

Tatum is a prototypical small forward in the NBA physically, though his 3-point shot is still a question mark. Monk may be both the best scorer and most explosive athlete in the draft, but he lacks positional size.

Giles is an especially compelling case. Virtually every team I spoke with believes he is a Tier 1 talent, but two major ACL surgeries and another minor knee procedure this fall -- along with a slow start to the season -- give them pause. If he fully recovers, all of them agreed he belongs in Tier 1, but he received only two votes for Tier 1 right now and five votes for Tier 3.





Tier 3 (NBA starters)
Miles Bridges, F, Michigan State
De'Aaron Fox, PG, Kentucky
Jonathan Isaac, SF, Florida State
Lauri Markkanen, PF, Arizona


Fox, Isaac and Markkanen all received a few Tier 2 votes. Fox, especially, seems to be gaining ground among NBA scouts with his strong play for Kentucky this season. His elite speed and ballhandling abilities wow scouts. His 15 percent shooting from beyond the arc doesn't. He's getting better as a shooter, though, and could move into Tier 2 if he really starts hitting jumpers with any regularity.

Isaac has many of the same qualities that Brandon Ingram brought to the table last year -- and Isaac might be an even better shooter at this stage. But Ingram's lack of strength and slow start in L.A. hurt him a bit.

Markkanen seems like the consummate NBA stretch-4. He's a terrific shooter, protects the rim and plays with a very high basketball IQ.

Bridges received two Tier 4 votes. He's an A-plus athlete and versatile offensive player, but his decision-making can be questionable on both ends of the floor.





Tier 4 (Starters, high-level rotation players)
Edrice Adebayo, PF, Kentucky
Jarrett Allen, C, Texas
T.J. Leaf, PF, UCLA
Justin Patton, C, Creighton
Robert Williams, PF, Texas A&M


In an average draft, Tier 4 typically makes up selections 10-20. This year, with so many players in Tiers 1-3, this range looks more like Nos. 15-20.

Leaf, Patton and Williams all received a few Tier 3 votes. Patton has been rising rapidly on draft boards over the past month. He's posting an effective field goal percentage of 75.3 percent while shooting 85 percent at the rim, according to Hoop-Math.com. He needs to get stronger, but all the tools are there. He has moved up to No. 14 in our latest Top 100 update, and his analytics projections put him as a top-10 prospect.

Leaf and Patton are sort of polar opposites. Put them together and you'd have the perfect prospect. Leaf is one of the top offensive players in the country, though he lacks elite size and has some holes defensively. Williams is a defensive monster, but still coming along on the offensive end.

Adebayo and Allen were both highly ranked high school players who are still major works in progress. Adebayo has the body of an NBA power forward and he's a great athlete, but his feel for the game is a question mark. Allen has been solid for Texas as a freshman. However, he's a major work in progress who won't be ready any time soon to play meaningful minutes for an NBA team.





Tier 5 (Rotation players)


Ike Anigbogu, F/C, UCLA
Marques Bolden, C, Duke
Tony Bradley, C, North Carolina
Zach Collins, C, Gonzaga
Omer Yurtseven, C, North Carolina State


Tier 5 is for rotation players who are unlikely to start for good teams but could be solid role players off the bench. That's roughly picks Nos. 21-35.

All of these players have their fans. Anigbogu plays the fewest minutes but might have the most buzz; he received a couple of Tier 4 votes. He's an athletic player with a great motor and shows a lot of promise on the defensive end.

Collins is the dark horse. Scouts weren't expecting much from him as a freshman, but he has had a significant impact on the team and he can really do it all on both ends of the floor. He has been rising lately and could end up making a leap over all the other guys in Tier 5. He was the other guy on this list to get a few Tier 4 votes.

Bolden was the highest-ranked player in this group before the season began. He has all the physical tools to be a good NBA center but doesn't always play hard and has struggled to crack the rotation at Duke.

Bradley has played meaningful minutes off the bench for North Carolina, and while he doesn't scream NBA superstar, his length and defensive abilities make him an attractive rotation player.

Yurtseven dominated European competition, but he has struggled to make the transition to college. He did just post his best game of the season recently with 12 points and 16 rebounds against Pitt, and NBA teams generally think there's a lot of upside down the road.





Other freshmen to watch


Andrew Jones, G, Texas; Frank Jackson, G, Duke; De'Anthony Melton, PG, USC; Wenyen Gabriel, F, Kentucky; Kobi Simmons, PG, Arizona; Rawle Alkins, G/F, Arizona; Justin Jackson, F, Maryland; Bruce Brown, G, Miami; V.J. King, SF, Louisville; Mustapha Heron, G, Auburn; Michael Weathers, G, Miami (OH)







 

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Struggling starter or lights-out reliever? The choice is easy


While Terry Francona and Andrew Miller showed that there's a better way to manage a bullpen in October for the Cleveland Indians, baseball has been moving toward expanding roles and values for relievers for a while now. Last winter, the Houston Astros paid a remarkable price in prospects to acquire hard-throwing Ken Giles from the Philadelphia Phillies, strengthening a bullpen that was already pretty good. At the deadline, the Chicago Cubs paid through the nose to acquire Aroldis Chapman from the New York Yankees, despite the fact that they already had Hector Rondon pitching well in the ninth inning. And Cleveland gave up a significant portion of its farm system to land Miller in July.


So well before this winter, when three closers signed contracts larger than any reliever has before, teams were placing a premium on impact arms in the bullpen. The demand for dominant relievers has never been higher than it is today.

As demand increases, the basic laws of economics tell us prices will rise until the supply catches up, creating a new equilibrium. So, in the wake of Miller's superb postseason, perhaps there's a new way for teams to beat the market: by being more aggressive in moving their pitching prospects to the bullpen.

For years, there has been a significant resistance to reliever conversions among top prospects, as the dramatic difference in value between a quality starter and a 60-inning reliever incentivized teams to move a guy to the bullpen only once it became clear that being a starter wasn't going to work. Miller kicked around baseball as a failed pitching prospect until 2012, when at the age of 27 he was finally moved to the bullpen on a full-time basis. See if you can spot when the Boston Red Sox finally gave up on Miller as a starter in this chart of his yearly strikeout rates.

Miller is something of a special case. Most guys don't end up quite this good. But even a cursory glance around the league shows a number of similar cases, in which struggling starting pitchers were shifted to relief work and turned into significantly more effective pitchers in short order.

Three years ago, Zach Britton was a 25-year-old with 250 mostly-lousy big league innings under his belt; his career ERA as a starter was 4.86. A move to the bullpen in 2014 made him a star, and since that conversion, he has run out a 1.38 ERA, the second-best mark in baseball.

Wade Davis, the only guy ahead of Britton on that ERA leaderboard, and Dellin Betances have similar stories. Because their teams were so committed to trying to use them as starters, neither had his breakout until he were 26, the same age Britton was turned into a star reliever. These are four of the game's best bullpen arms, but all of them spent their early 20s failing as starters. It doesn't have to be this way.

With the increasing emphasis on having not just a quality closer, but impact arms throughout the bullpen, the old adage that a pitcher is going to lose significant value transitioning from the rotation to the bullpen simply isn't true anymore. Every team in baseball wants more high-octane arms. Helpfully, the minor leagues are littered with guys who could dominate in short stints in 2017.

Two American League contenders have made just such a trade-off in recent years, skipping the failed-starter part of reliever conversions with great success. Two years ago, the Toronto Blue Jays decided that Roberto Osuna pitched too well in spring training to go back down to the minor leagues, but as a 20-year-old he also wasn't ready for a rotation spot. So they stuck him in the big league bullpen, and the result has been to get two years from one of the game's best relievers, helping the team reach the postseason in each.

Perhaps even more aggressively, the Seattle Mariners decided in May to turn their top pitching prospect, Edwin Diaz, into a reliever while he was dominating Double-A as a starting pitcher. Through his first six starts of 2016, Diaz ran up a 38/5 K/BB ratio, but the Mariners looked at that and saw a guy who could help them more in relief sooner than he could in the rotation. Asked about the decision, Dipoto explicitly stated that he values relievers at the same level as many starting pitchers.

"We felt like he had the potential to be a major league starter, but he has the potential to be an impact major league reliever, and to me, one supersedes the other," Dipoto said.

Diaz helped justify the decision by reaching the big leagues in June and running up a Miller-esque 41 percent strikeout rate during his rookie season. The Mariners didn't quite reach the postseason, but with Diaz entrenched as a dominant reliever in the bullpen, Dipoto was free to spend this offseason filling other holes, rather than competing with the Dodgers and Yankees for the best free agent arms available in the bullpen.

For the Mariners and Blue Jays, their decisions to bypass the struggling starter part of the equation has paid immediate dividends, adding value to aging rosters that needed a short-term boost more than long-term potential. While they surrendered the higher upside of either pitcher developing into a frontline starting pitcher, the increased probability of success in the bullpen and the accelerated timeline made the conversion the correct call.

And we just saw what the Cubs paid to land a half season of Chapman at the trade deadline, with the lesson that entails: If you don't surrender your pitching prospects' long-term upside to fill a bullpen hole, you might end up surrendering even more long-term value when you have to trade for a reliever to take that spot in July.

When contending teams trade future value to give themselves the best chance they can to win in October, it's understood that there are times when it's worth the long-term cost to get the short-term gain. But with the increasing demand for impact relief arms, maybe contending teams should simply make that trade internally, and be more aggressive about converting questionable starters into dominant relievers sooner than later.

Instead of paying a premium for relief pitching in a demand-driven market, perhaps contenders could do better overall to increase their own supply of available options, allowing their "if he can only develop a changeup" pitching prospects to provide instant value out of the bullpen instead. Most of these guys are never going to develop a changeup, and while the cost might be that you develop fewer quality starters internally, the game is shifting toward heavier reliever usage anyway.

If you have a legitimate elite arm with three pitches and command, leave him be. If you're a team looking to the future and aren't that concerned with your exact 2017 win total, keep trying to develop starting pitchers.

But teams that want to win now and have a two-pitch guy who might be a decent starter with a few more years of development? Put him on the Edwin Diaz track, avoid the expensive reliever market, and leave it to your divisional foes to trade half their farm system for a rent-a-reliever in July. You'll be happy you did.
 

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Rating top NBA draft freshman prospects, from Tier 1 to Tier 5

Is this the greatest college freshman class in the history of the NBA draft? How many potential stars could enter the league in 2017?

Here's our look at top prospects Lonzo Ball, Markelle Fultz, Josh Jackson and more freshmen, based on feedback from NBA scouts and GMs to separate the players into tiers from 1 to 5.


It has been 11 years since the NBA changed the early-entry rules prohibiting high school seniors from entering the draft. In that time, college freshmen have taken over.

Just two freshmen were taken in the first round of the 2006 draft, the first one after the high school senior ban. By 2008, that number grew to 11, including eight in the lottery. A new record was set in 2015 with 13 freshman first-rounders and eight lottery picks.

The 2017 draft has a chance to shatter that record.

Our Top 100 currently projects 20 freshmen to be taken in the first round this year, with 12 in the lottery. And it's not just the sheer number of freshmen that has scouts excited. It's the quality as well.

I asked a number of NBA GMs and scouts to apply the tier system that I've been using for years.

A whopping 11 freshmen fell in one of the top three tiers, which essentially means a range from NBA superstars to regular starters. The most we've ever had was six in the 2014 draft, headlined by Joel Embiid, Jabari Parker and Andrew Wiggins.

So, let's get to the tiers.

Note: Players in each tier are listed alphabetically.







Tier 1 (Potential superstars)


Lonzo Ball, PG, UCLA
Markelle Fultz, PG, Washington


Only eight players have been ranked in this slot since we started doing this in 2009: Blake Griffin, John Wall, Anthony Davis, Andrew Wiggins, Joel Embiid, Jabari Parker, Karl-Anthony Towns and Ben Simmons.

That's pretty elite company.

2017 NBA draft


nba_draft_134.jpg

Get ready for Markelle Fultz, Lonzo Ball and the 2017 draft, with analysis from Chad Ford and other ESPN experts.





This year, there is still a major question among NBA scouts and GMs about whether there are any Tier 1 prospects. Most of the NBA people I spoke with were hesitant to make the call just yet and said they won't be sure until we get closer to the draft. However, Ball and Fultz have very high ceilings and pretty high floors. They received enough votes to rank here, despite a number of GMs and scouts ranking them as Tier 2 players.

Fultz's all-around game, athleticism and versatility make him a virtually can't-miss prospect. Ball's unique combination of size and court vision have some scouts comparing him to Jason Kidd with a jump shot.

"I'm not sure there are superstars in this draft," one GM said. "I'm not sure I see the guy that turns around a franchise. But both Ball and Fultz have that potential. The position that they play and the lack of great, young point guards right now in the league give them that potential. They could really lead a new generation of big, multi-positional point guards."





Tier 2 (All-Star potential)
Harry Giles, F/C, Duke
Josh Jackson, G/F, Kansas
Malik Monk, G, Kentucky
Dennis Smith Jr., PG, North Carolina State
Jayson Tatum, SF, Duke


All five of the players here got a small handful of Tier 1 votes -- especially Smith and Tatum. The general consensus in the race for the No. 1 pick seems to be wide open. Only Monk and Giles received any Tier 3 votes from NBA folks.

Smith and Jackson both have elite athletic ability to go along with great passing skills, but inconsistent jump shots (especially for Jackson) hurt their cases for Tier 1.

Tatum is a prototypical small forward in the NBA physically, though his 3-point shot is still a question mark. Monk may be both the best scorer and most explosive athlete in the draft, but he lacks positional size.

Giles is an especially compelling case. Virtually every team I spoke with believes he is a Tier 1 talent, but two major ACL surgeries and another minor knee procedure this fall -- along with a slow start to the season -- give them pause. If he fully recovers, all of them agreed he belongs in Tier 1, but he received only two votes for Tier 1 right now and five votes for Tier 3.





Tier 3 (NBA starters)
Miles Bridges, F, Michigan State
De'Aaron Fox, PG, Kentucky
Jonathan Isaac, SF, Florida State
Lauri Markkanen, PF, Arizona


Fox, Isaac and Markkanen all received a few Tier 2 votes. Fox, especially, seems to be gaining ground among NBA scouts with his strong play for Kentucky this season. His elite speed and ballhandling abilities wow scouts. His 15 percent shooting from beyond the arc doesn't. He's getting better as a shooter, though, and could move into Tier 2 if he really starts hitting jumpers with any regularity.

Isaac has many of the same qualities that Brandon Ingram brought to the table last year -- and Isaac might be an even better shooter at this stage. But Ingram's lack of strength and slow start in L.A. hurt him a bit.

Markkanen seems like the consummate NBA stretch-4. He's a terrific shooter, protects the rim and plays with a very high basketball IQ.

Bridges received two Tier 4 votes. He's an A-plus athlete and versatile offensive player, but his decision-making can be questionable on both ends of the floor.





Tier 4 (Starters, high-level rotation players)
Edrice Adebayo, PF, Kentucky
Jarrett Allen, C, Texas
T.J. Leaf, PF, UCLA
Justin Patton, C, Creighton
Robert Williams, PF, Texas A&M


In an average draft, Tier 4 typically makes up selections 10-20. This year, with so many players in Tiers 1-3, this range looks more like Nos. 15-20.

Leaf, Patton and Williams all received a few Tier 3 votes. Patton has been rising rapidly on draft boards over the past month. He's posting an effective field goal percentage of 75.3 percent while shooting 85 percent at the rim, according to Hoop-Math.com. He needs to get stronger, but all the tools are there. He has moved up to No. 14 in our latest Top 100 update, and his analytics projections put him as a top-10 prospect.

Leaf and Patton are sort of polar opposites. Put them together and you'd have the perfect prospect. Leaf is one of the top offensive players in the country, though he lacks elite size and has some holes defensively. Williams is a defensive monster, but still coming along on the offensive end.

Adebayo and Allen were both highly ranked high school players who are still major works in progress. Adebayo has the body of an NBA power forward and he's a great athlete, but his feel for the game is a question mark. Allen has been solid for Texas as a freshman. However, he's a major work in progress who won't be ready any time soon to play meaningful minutes for an NBA team.





Tier 5 (Rotation players)


Ike Anigbogu, F/C, UCLA
Marques Bolden, C, Duke
Tony Bradley, C, North Carolina
Zach Collins, C, Gonzaga
Omer Yurtseven, C, North Carolina State


Tier 5 is for rotation players who are unlikely to start for good teams but could be solid role players off the bench. That's roughly picks Nos. 21-35.

All of these players have their fans. Anigbogu plays the fewest minutes but might have the most buzz; he received a couple of Tier 4 votes. He's an athletic player with a great motor and shows a lot of promise on the defensive end.

Collins is the dark horse. Scouts weren't expecting much from him as a freshman, but he has had a significant impact on the team and he can really do it all on both ends of the floor. He has been rising lately and could end up making a leap over all the other guys in Tier 5. He was the other guy on this list to get a few Tier 4 votes.

Bolden was the highest-ranked player in this group before the season began. He has all the physical tools to be a good NBA center but doesn't always play hard and has struggled to crack the rotation at Duke.

Bradley has played meaningful minutes off the bench for North Carolina, and while he doesn't scream NBA superstar, his length and defensive abilities make him an attractive rotation player.

Yurtseven dominated European competition, but he has struggled to make the transition to college. He did just post his best game of the season recently with 12 points and 16 rebounds against Pitt, and NBA teams generally think there's a lot of upside down the road.





Other freshmen to watch


Andrew Jones, G, Texas; Frank Jackson, G, Duke; De'Anthony Melton, PG, USC; Wenyen Gabriel, F, Kentucky; Kobi Simmons, PG, Arizona; Rawle Alkins, G/F, Arizona; Justin Jackson, F, Maryland; Bruce Brown, G, Miami; V.J. King, SF, Louisville; Mustapha Heron, G, Auburn; Michael Weathers, G, Miami (OH)
 
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