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Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)
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Mock draft: Scouts Inc. picks the top 20 players in the Big Ten
If you had to build a college football roster and could have anybody from the Big Ten, who would you start with?
Probably J.T. Barrett or Jabrill Peppers, right?
We asked Scouts Inc.'s Steve Muench and Kevin Weidl to alternate picks (Weidl earned the No. 1 overall pick) and work their way through the best players in the country.
Just to reiterate, the purpose of this was not to project who would be future Pro Bowlers or Super Bowl winners. The goal was to construct a team that would win this Saturday on a college football field. (So far, we've looked at the entire nation, the ACC and the Pac-12.)
So who went first? Give yourself a 50-50 chance and guess either Barrett or Peppers. Then cross off the other guy because a different player ended up going second overall.
No. 1 pick: Weidl takes J.T. Barrett, QB, Ohio State
Taking the top QB in the conference is an easy choice for me. Barrett is no longer looking over his shoulder in a quarterback battle that caused a shaky 2015 campaign. He is back to playing at the high level he showed during his freshman season in 2014, when he accounted for more than 3,700 yards of offense and 45 total touchdowns. He is coming off a strong and efficient performance against Oklahoma, completing 70 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and no interceptions in the Buckeyes' big road win. Barrett brings outstanding leadership skills, which will go a long way in Ohio State's push for a playoff spot, because across the board, the Buckeyes are as talented as anyone in the country.
No. 2 pick: Muench takes Malik McDowell, LB, Michigan State
I agree; Barrett is the top quarterback in the conference. I still would have taken McDowell at No. 1, though. Listed at 6-foot-6 and 275 pounds, the versatile defensive lineman is a nightmare matchup regardless of where he lines up. His initial quickness, pad level and violent hands make him a disruptive interior run-stuffer and pass-rusher. Plus, he has the strength and length to overwhelm offensive tackles when he lines up on the outside. Finally, his motor is as impressive as his natural ability -- he fights through double-teams and chases with great effort.
No 3. pick: Weidl takes Jabrill Peppers, LB/S, Michigan
Good pick by Muench. McDowell is a beast and a better player, but positional value is the reason why I took Barrett. Speaking of having an impact on games, Peppers' versatility was too hard to pass up here. He has moved into a hybrid linebacker role for the Wolverines and has shown excellent playmaking instincts to go along with his natural athleticism. He has been all over the field early on this season, with 28 tackles, 9.5 tackles for loss and 2.5 sacks through three games. In addition, he brings added value on special teams as a returner.
No. 4 pick: Muench takes Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
Best pick you've made in weeks, Kevin. With Peppers off the board, I'll take Barkley, who broke Penn State's freshman season rushing record and was the Big Ten's fourth-leading rusher last season despite carrying the ball a total of 42 times in his first four games. Listed at 5-foot-11 and 223 pounds, he's an instinctive runner with the power to grind out yards between the tackles and the burst to turn the corner on perimeter runs. His quick feet, power and ability to hurdle defenders also make him difficult to bring down when he squeezes into space both as a runner and as a receiver.
No. 5 pick: Weidl takes Malik Hooker, S, Ohio State
Glad I could finally earn your approval, Muench. I'll go with Hooker here. He has exploded onto the scene in his first year as a starter for a young Buckeyes' secondary that is loaded with talent. The sophomore safety has an excellent combination of fluidity, explosiveness and overall range. What takes him to another level, though, is his anticipation, ball skills and playmaking ability. Hooker is tied for an FBS-leading three interceptions and has shown the ability to flip the field with one pick-six so far. In addition, he is a reliable tackler who is willing to be physical in run support.
No. 6 pick: Muench takes Dawuane Smoot, DE, Illinois
Smoot had 15 tackles for loss, eight sacks and three forced fumbles last season, but he hasn't gotten off to a great start this season. He has zero sacks and has struggled to stay onsides at times, which probably means he's pressing. That said, he's just too good a value to pass on at this point. He's a dynamic pass-rusher with the closing speed as well as the flexibility to turn the corner. Smoot also has the explosiveness to convert speed to power and the athletic ability to redirect inside when offensive tackles overset to take away the edge. He occasionally gives ground when teams run at him, but he's still an above-average run defender who flashes the ability to stack and shed, and is at his best using his initial quickness to disrupt plays in the backfield.
No. 7 pick: Weidl takes Curtis Samuel, RB, Ohio State
I'll continue to add more versatility to my roster here with Samuel, who lines up all over the field for the Buckeyes. The junior is the Buckeyes' most explosive weapon on offense and has 260 yards rushing and 259 yards receiving with four total touchdowns through three games. He has an excellent blend of quickness and top-end speed that makes him a big-play threat every time he touches the ball.
No. 8 pick: Muench takes Noah Brown, WR, Ohio State
Good pick, Kevin. I'm generally trigger shy when it comes to taking a player who has 10 career catches and missed all of last season with an injury, especially in a conference with this much talent. But I'll make an exception for Brown, who caught five passes for 72 yards and four touchdowns against Oklahoma last week. His body control, focus and strong hands in 50-50 situations are impressive, and he stood out in the breakout performance. He also has the speed to stretch the field and produce after the catch.
No. 9 pick: Weidl takes Raekwon McMillan, LB, Ohio State
The Buckeyes continue to dominate the top 10, and getting McMillan ninth is a steal in my mind. The third-year junior has quickened up his recognition skills to go along with a strong combination of athleticism, power and overall range. McMillan led the team with 119 tackles last season and is off to another strong start in 2016 with 20 total tackles through three games, along with a tackle for loss and a forced fumble. He brings a physical presence at the second level and continues to bolster the back seven of our defense.
No. 10 pick: Muench takes Jake Butt, TE, Michigan
McMillan is a good value at this point, but calling him a steal is a bit strong. And for the record, I've taken only one Buckeye thus far. That said, I couldn't be happier to land the best tight end in the conference and one of the best tight ends in the country. Butt, who has caught seven passes in each of his past two games, has the burst to separate one-on-one, the awareness to locate soft spots in zone looks and the body control and strong hands to come down with 50-50 balls in traffic. There's also a lot to like about his ability to stretch the defense with his speed and his ability to produce after the catch.
No. 11 pick: Weidl takes Chris Wormley, DE, Michigan
No. 12 pick: Muench takes Jourdan Lewis, CB, Michigan
No. 13 pick: Weidl takes Hardy Nickerson, LB, Illinois
No. 14 pick: Muench takes Nathan Gerry, S, Nebraska
No. 15 pick: Weidl takes Desmond King, CB, Iowa
No. 16 pick: Muench takes Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State
No. 17 pick: Weidl takes Tai-yon Devers, DL, Minnesota
No. 18 pick: Muench takes Sam Hubbard, DE, Ohio State
No. 19 pick: Weidl takes Pat Eflein, C, Ohio State
No. 20 pick: Muench takes Tyler O'Connor, QB, Michigan State
Next-best available
Weidl: 1. CJ Beathard, QB, Iowa; 2. Mike Weber, RB, Ohio State; 3. Carol Phillips, DE, Illinois; 4. Tyquan Lewis, DE, Ohio State; 5. Mike McCray, OLB, Michigan.
Muench: 1. Jehu Chasson, WR, Michigan; 2. Vince Beigel, OLB, Wisconsin; 3. Mason Cole, C, Michigan; 4. Nick Bosa, DE, Ohio State; 5. Anthony Nelson, DE, Iowa.
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NBA season forecast: W-L record for all 30 teams
Check out our win-loss projections -- based on Real Plus-Minus (RPM) -- for all 30 NBA teams along with detailed player breakdowns for 20 teams.
WESTERN CONFERENCE
Golden State Warriors
Proj. wins: 66.8
Last season: 73-9
Player spotlight: Kevin Durant
The Warriors' offense will feature Durant's skills, and he gives them another bailout option late in the clock. Nobody in the league is better at hitting difficult shots than Durant, who can get off a shot any time he wants thanks to his size (he's surely bigger than his listed 6-foot-9) and long arms. That can compel Durant to settle instead of looking for better shots, but he's also a gifted playmaker who will fill Draymond Green's role as a creator off the pick-and-roll at times.
Read our full analysis on Durant and every Warriors player
San Antonio Spurs
Proj. wins: 54.5
Last season: 67-15
Player spotlight: Kawhi Leonard
It's hard to believe now that Leonard was an offensive afterthought as recently as 2013-14, when he used just 18.3 percent of the Spurs' plays. That jumped to 23 percent in 2014-15, then again to 25.8 percent last season. That's still relatively low for a superstar -- aside from Leonard, the other noncenter All-NBA first-teamers since 2010-11 have averaged 30.5 percent usage, and only point guard Chris Paul has made the team with a lower usage rate in that span.
Read our full analysis on Leonard and every Spurs player
Utah Jazz
Proj. wins: 47.6
Last season: 40-42
Player spotlight: Rudy Gobert
There's still plenty of room for improvement for Gobert on offense, where opponents started defending him with power forwards so they could use centers against Favors to neutralize his post-up game. While Gobert shows some promise as a passer (he averaged a credible 1.7 assists per 36 minutes), he's not a scoring threat at all away from the perimeter. Gobert shot 22.9 percent on attempts beyond 3 feet last season, per Basetball-Reference.com, which was actually a slight improvement on his 21.7 percent mark in 2014-15. And while Gobert can make smaller defenders pay on the offensive glass, he doesn't really have any semblance of a post game, making those crossmatches an effective option.
Read our full analysis on Gobert and every Jazz player
Los Angeles Clippers
Proj. wins: 46.3
Last season: 53-29
Player spotlight: Blake Griffin
Griffin used a career-high 29.8 percent of the Clippers' plays. Creating more of his own shots means lots of isolations from the midpost to the 3-point line, where Griffin is a threat to shoot (he made a respectable 38.4 percent of 2-point attempts beyond 16 feet) or pass (5.2 assists per 36 minutes). Defenses have started to counter by putting their centers on Blake Griffin to bother him with length, opening him up to drive. Since Griffin is so effective with the ball in his hands, it's tough to understand why Doc Rivers has as yet been unwilling to stagger his minutes with Paul's to keep one on the court at all times.
Read our full analysis on Griffin and every Clippers player
Houston Rockets
Proj. wins: 45.8
Last season: 41-41
Player spotlight: James Harden
The problem, of course, is defense. Harden's offensive output wasn't much worse than 2014-15, when he was a narrow runner-up to Stephen Curry for MVP (and won the inaugural players' choice award). But after improving his defensive effort, he fell into bad habits after a preseason injury affected his conditioning. Worse yet, Harden's defensive indifference seemed to infect his teammates, and Houston fell from sixth in defensive rating to 21st. If the Rockets are to improve, Harden will need to set the tone -- particularly after agreeing to a contract renegotiation and extension that locks him up through at least 2018-19. Playing fewer minutes might help. Harden played a league-high 38.1 minutes per game last season and shouldn't have to carry such a heavy load with more scoring on the roster.
Read our full analysis on Harden and every Rockets player
Oklahoma City Thunder
Proj. wins: 45.6
Last season: 55-27
Player spotlight: Russell Westbrook
Yeah, Westbrook takes too many jumpers off the dribble -- he attempted 8.2 pull-ups per game last season, the league's 10th-highest average, while posting a 42.3 percent effective field goal percentage (eFG) on those shots, according to SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats. Though critics still point to Westbrook taking 4.3 3-pointers a game at a 29.6 percent clip, he at least slashed his rate of long 2-pointers, of which he made 39.2 percent for a worse eFG, per Basketball-Reference.com. As a result, Westbrook both made better than 50 percent of his 2-point attempts and had an above-average true shooting percentage (.554) for the first time in his career. Alas, both will likely fall this season as Westbrook has to take more difficult shots without Durant around. His usage rate in games Durant missed in 2014-15 was greater than 40 percent, which would be the highest on record over a full NBA season.
Read our full analysis on Westbrook and every Thunder player
Portland Trail Blazers
Proj. wins: 44.5
Last season: 44-38
Player spotlight: Damian Lillard
Lillard's ability to score in the pick-and-roll and isolations is central to Portland's post-Aldridge offense. He pushed his usage rate to 31.3 percent, the league's eighth-highest mark, while maintaining an identical .560 true shooting percentage. After Stephen Curry, to whom he's often compared, Lillard's 121 unassisted 3-pointers ranked second in the league, per Basketball-Reference.com.
Read our full analysis on Lillard and every Blazers player
Denver Nuggets
Proj. wins: 40.4
Last season: 33-49
Player spotlight: Kenneth Faried
After two down seasons under Brian Shaw, with whom he never seemed to click, Faried's effort level rebounded under new head coach Michael Malone. Still, Faried's role in Denver going forward is uncertain as the Nuggets continue to stockpile younger big men who better complement each other. With three years remaining on a contract that pays him a little less than $13 million a year, Faried is a likely trade candidate.
Read our full analysis on Faried and every Nuggets player
Memphis Grizzlies
Proj. wins: 39.4
Last season: 42-40
Player spotlight: Chandler Parsons
Before the meniscus injury, Parsons was playing as well as ever, posting a career-best .589 true shooting percentage. That was mostly thanks to shooting 41.4 percent from 3-point range, better than his career 38.0 percent mark. Often a spot-up shooter with the Mavericks and Houston Rockets, Parsons would like to play more with the ball in his hands and was sold by the Grizzlies' pitch that his usage rate (never higher than 20.6 percent before) would go up in Memphis. Playing next to Tony Allen on the wing, Parsons should serve as a secondary ball handler and get to run pick-and-rolls more frequently. His 47.7 percent shooting as a pick-and-roll ball handler ranked among the top 10 for players with at least 100 attempts, per Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats.
Read our full analysis on Parsons and every Grizzlies player
Sacramento Kings
Proj. wins: 37.7
Last season: 33-49
Player spotlight: DeMarcus Cousins
On the court, the biggest evolution of Cousins' game was the addition of 3-point range. He'd made only 11 triples in 69 attempts in his first six seasons before firing up 210 last season, which he made at a 33.3 percent clip. While the newfound range helped Cousins coexist with Willie Cauley-Stein in big starting lineups, the Kings would surely prefer him in the paint, where he drew enough fouls to average a career-high 10.6 free throw attempts per 36 minutes. Cousins also saw his offensive rebound percentage decline by more than a quarter. With his strength and quickness, Cousins is difficult to stop one-on-one in his favored left block. His 348 points on post-ups ranked fifth in the league, per Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats.
Read our full analysis on Cousins and every Kings player
Minnesota Timberwolves
Proj. wins: 37.1
Last season: 29-53
Player spotlight: Karl-Anthony Towns
John Calipari accelerated Towns' development during his one season at Kentucky by forcing him inside. Towns retains the soft touch from the perimeter that made him such a promising prep prospect. He shot a below-average 34.1 percent from 3-point range, but his 50.6 percent accuracy on 2-pointers beyond 16 feet ranked second among players with at least 100 attempts, per Basketball-Reference.com. Thanks to Calipari's forcing him inside, Towns is also dangerous in the post using hooks with either hand and a fadeaway jump shot. His 231 points on post-ups ranked in the league's top 20, per Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats. And when Towns draws fouls, he's an excellent free throw shooter for a big man (81.1 percent), boosting his strong .590 true shooting percentage.
Read our full analysis on Towns and every Wolves player
New Orleans Pelicans
Proj. wins: 37.0
Last season: 30-52
Player spotlight: Anthony Davis
Davis' defensive effort was more disappointing than his offensive step back. Whether it was health-related or tied to frustration over the team's slow start, Davis' energy level wasn't the same as the year before, when he had started to make good on his immense defensive potential. Davis' block percentage dropped by nearly a quarter and his steal rate was down too. As a result, his defensive rating in ESPN's real plus-minus dropped from second among power forwards in 2014-15 to outside the top 15 last season.
Read our full analysis on Davis and every Pelicans player
Dallas Mavericks
Proj. wins: 34.3
Last season: 42-40
Player spotlight: Harrison Barnes
"I think he can do a lot more than he's been asked to do, and that's what we expect to see," Dallas owner Mark Cuban declared after signing Barnes. The problem with that logic is it's precisely when Barnes has been asked to do more (i.e., create his own shot) that he has struggled. That was Barnes' role off the bench his second season, when just 62.6 percent of his field goals were assisted and he shot a dismal 41.9 percent on 2-point attempts and 34.7 percent on 3s.
Read our full analysis on Barnes and every Mavericks player
Phoenix Suns
Proj. wins: 29.2
Last season: 23-59
Player spotlight: Devin Booker
By the end of the season, Booker was basically playing point guard, which would have been unthinkable based on how little he handled the ball at Kentucky. In part because of the limited talent around him, Booker wasn't yet very good in that role -- his assist-to-turnover ratio was barely better than 1 as a point guard, per NBAwowy.com -- but it was part of Booker's evolution. He posted up a little when opponents put smaller defenders on him, came off screens and ran pick-and-rolls, offering the potential of becoming a well-rounded shooting specialist in the mold of Ray Allen or Klay Thompson.
Read our full analysis on Booker and every Suns player
Los Angeles Lakers
Proj. wins: 24.3
Last season: 17-65
Player spotlight: D'Angelo Russell
The arrival of Luke Walton as Byron Scott's replacement should be great news for Russell, who will have more freedom to play his pick-and-roll game. While Russell wasn't efficient in the pick-and-roll as a rookie, his ability to shoot pull-up jumpers off the dribble with 3-point range forces defenses to play him honestly, setting him up to turn the corner. He made strides over the course of his rookie season in finishing with his right hand and showed a good in-between game, making 46.0 percent of his attempts between 3 and 10 feet, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
Read our full analysis on Russell and every Lakers player
EASTERN CONFERENCE
Cleveland Cavaliers
Proj. wins: 52.1
Last season: 57-25
Cavaliers player profiles coming soon
Boston Celtics
Proj. wins: 49.8
Last season: 48-34
Player spotlight: Jaylen Brown
Few draft picks in recent history have been as polarizing as Brown, who rated poorly by most statistical projections based on his lone season at California. The stats-only version of my WARP projections pegged Brown as a below-replacement NBA player based on his inefficient scoring, and outside the top 100 prospects in the draft. Because of his combination of quickness and power, Brown still had plenty of believers in the scouting community, and Boston took him No. 3 overall based on that upside.
Read our full analysis on Brown and every Celtics player
Toronto Raptors
Proj. wins: 48.8
Last season: 56-26
Player spotlight: Jonas Valanciunas
With DeRozan and Lowry struggling to score, Valanciunas stepped into a larger offensive role during the first two rounds of the playoffs, averaging 15.0 points on 55.0 percent shooting before suffering a sprained ankle that sidelined him until the Eastern Conference finals. However, it's Valanciunas' defense that figures to take on paramount importance in the first season of his four-year, $64 million extension because Toronto no longer has departed backup Bismack Biyombo as a defensive-minded alternative.
Read our full analysis on Valanciunas and every Raptors player
Detroit Pistons
Proj. wins: 47.5
Last season: 44-38
Pistons player profiles coming soon
Washington Wizards
Proj. wins: 41.4
Last season: 41-41
Wizards player profiles coming soon
Charlotte Hornets
Proj. wins: 41.0
Last season: 48-34
Hornets player profiles coming soon
Milwaukee Bucks
Proj. wins: 40.9
Last season: 33-49
Bucks player profiles coming soon
Indiana Pacers
Proj. wins: 38.9
Last season: 45-37
Pacers player profiles coming soon
Atlanta Hawks
Proj. wins: 38.6
Last season: 48-34
Player spotlight: Dwight Howard
These days, Howard is less Shaquille O'Neal and more Nate Thurmond. His offensive role in Houston kept shrinking until last season his usage rate slipped to a career-low 18.5 percent. The good news was that Howard's efficiency at the rim (70.6 percent in the restricted area, per NBA.com/stats) led to a career-best 62.5 percent mark on 2-pointers. His free throw shooting was again lackluster, dropping under break-even in 2015-16, and even after another summer of working on this chronic issue, it's silly to think it'll get better at this point.
Read our full analysis on Howard and every Hawks player
Miami Heat
Proj. wins: 38.3
Last season: 48-34
Player spotlight: Justise Winslow
Winslow's defense is well ahead of his offense at this point, and his summer project was to build himself up on that end. As a rookie, he created little offense (12.5 percent usage rate) and was inefficient with the chances he did get (49.0 true shooting percentage). His strength right now should be running the floor, but he ranked in the bottom quarter of the league in transition on a per-play basis, per Synergy Sports Technologies.
Read our full analysis on Winslow and every Heat player
Chicago Bulls
Proj. wins: 37.8
Last season: 42-40
Bulls player profiles coming soon
Orlando Magic
Proj. wins: 36.2
Last season: 35-47
Player spotlight: Serge Ibaka
One of the bigger gambles any team took this offseason came on draft night, when the Magic acquired Ibaka from Oklahoma City for Victor Oladipo, Ersan Ilyasova and the rights to Domantas Sabonis. Orlando GM Rob Hennigan sent away one of his own high-lottery picks (Oladipo) while he was still under his rookie contract for a player whose game showed wear and tear last season and who is entering a contract year.
Read our full analysis on Ibaka and every Magic player
New York Knicks
Proj. wins: 34.7
Last season: 32-50
Player spotlight: Kristaps Porzingis
At 7-foot-3, Porzingis proved remarkably adept at defending smaller opponents on the perimeter. His huge wingspan allows Porzingis to play a step off and still contest shots, and his nimble feet allow him to cover ground quickly against the pick-and-roll. Naturally, Porzingis' size also makes him an effective shot-blocker, and he swatted more shots than the average center. Ultimately, Porzingis' future lies in the middle, where he played about a quarter of his minutes last season, according to Nylon Calculus tracking. Porzingis will have to add strength to defend bigger players down low, and New York seems in no hurry to move him there full time.
Read our full analysis on Porzingis and every Knicks player
Brooklyn Nets
Proj. wins: 28.8
Last season: 21-61
Player spotlight: Jeremy Lin
The Nets were a great destination for Lin because this is the first time since Linsanity he'll have the ball in his hands full time, without a star shooting guard (James Harden and Kobe Bryant) or established starting point guard (Kemba Walker) with whom to share it. Lin has become a good enough 3-point shooter to play off the ball; he played more minutes with Walker last season (1,179) than as lead point guard (868). But Lin is still at his best running the high pick-and-roll with the floor spaced (OK, the latter is unlikely to happen in Brooklyn). He averaged 18.2 points and 5.4 assists per 36 minutes last season as a point guard, according to NBA.com/Stats, as compared to 14.5 and 3.2 playing with Walker.
Read our full analysis on Lin and every Nets player
Philadelphia 76ers
Proj. wins: 24.5
Last season: 10-72
Player spotlight: Jahlil Okafor
Offensively, Okafor did prove more versatile than expected. In part because of the 76ers' poor floor spacing, his 0.85 points per post-up ranked 11th among the 13 players who scored at least 250 points in the post, according to Synergy Sports tracking on NBA.com/Stats. But Okafor was more effective facing up slower defenders and beating them off the dribble using his quickness (0.87 points per isolation play). And he was surprisingly adept as a roll man in the pick-and-roll, averaging 1.02 points per play. One way or another, Okafor is going to get buckets with high-percentage shooting. The next steps for him are drawing more fouls -- especially after he improved to 68.6 percent at the free throw line -- and making plays as a passer. Okafor's 1.5 assists per 36 minutes was third lowest among regulars who averaged 20 points per 36 minutes.
Read our full analysis on Okafor and every Sixers player
Kiper's Rookie Big Board: Cowboys strike draft gold
Here's the third edition of my ranking of the top rookies through Week 6 in the NFL, plus another group of guys who just missed the list. I've also included the rankings of where each player landed on my final top 300 prospects list before the 2016 draft.
Here are the parameters, same as always:
- This is a measure for all games this season, not just last week.
- Total snap count matters. Staying on the field is a measure of value.
- Positional value matters, but overall performance and impact on the team matter more.
- Relative value matters. I ask: Would this player be a starter on most teams or on a good team?
1. Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
Previously ranked: 2 | Final 2016 Big Board rank: 114
How can Prescott not move up to No. 1? The fourth-round pick is No. 2 in the league in Total QBR, he just set the record for passes without an interception to open a career (176) and the Cowboys are 5-1. As Tony Romo inches closer to a return from his back injury, an interesting QB1 decision looms.
2. Carson Wentz, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Previously ranked: 1 | Final 2016 Big Board rank: 7
The No. 2 overall pick has had some expected growing pains the past two weeks. Wentz's Total QBR has taken a plunge -- from No. 8 after Week 4 to No. 25 now -- and the Eagles have lost two straight after a 3-0 start. He completed just 50 percent of his passes in Philadelphia's loss to Washington last weekend. Wentz's future is bright, though. The tools are there.
3. Jack Conklin, OT, Tennessee Titans
Previously ranked: 5 | Final 2016 Big Board rank: 4
Conklin is such a steady presence at right tackle. Tennessee, led by a much-improved offensive line, is up to No. 2 in the league in yards per carry (4.9). Conklin is going to have a long career in the NFL.
4. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys
Previously ranked: 8 | Final 2016 Big Board rank: 8
Before the draft, I said Elliott was one of the best running back prospects to enter the league over the past decade, and he is already leading the league in rushing -- by more than 100 yards. He's also leading the league in carries. The Cowboys have relied on him too much so far. How about saving his legs when they're up by two touchdowns?
5. Jatavis Brown, ILB, San Diego Chargers
Previously ranked: 6 | Final 2016 Big Board rank: 248
Brown, filling in for Manti Te'o, who's out for the season, leads the Chargers in tackles with 42. Brown was a fifth-round pick after earning the award for MAC defensive player of the year at Akron. He looks promising. After 11.5 sacks last season for the Zips, he has three for San Diego in limited snaps. He has also forced two fumbles.
6. DeForest Buckner, DE, San Francisco 49ers
Previously ranked: 7 | Final 2016 Big Board rank: 9
After missing a game with a foot injury, Buckner returned in Week 6 and had two sacks -- the first of his career -- against the Bills. He leads 49ers defensive linemen in snaps and tackles. At 6-foot-7, 300 pounds, he has a unique combination of power and length, and he's still developing his pass-rushing skills.
7. Keanu Neal, S, Atlanta Falcons
Previously ranked: NR | Final 2016 Big Board rank: 50
Neal missed the first two games of the season because of a knee injury. He has adjusted quickly to the speed of the league and is racking up tackles. He had 11 in the loss to the Seahawks last weekend. He also has two forced fumbles this season.
8. Hunter Henry, TE, San Diego Chargers
Previously ranked: NR | Final 2016 Big Board rank: 54
Henry, a second-round pick out of Arkansas, has really been a factor while veteran Antonio Gates has been banged up and not at full strength. My No. 2-ranked tight end in the draft has a touchdown in three straight games. His 59-yard run-and-catch against the Raiders showed off his tools. Henry's 16 first-down catches are tied for the team lead.
9. Yannick Ngakoue, DE, Jacksonville Jaguars
Previously ranked: 9 | Final 2016 Big Board rank: 108
Who could have guessed Ngakoue would have been the top-rated Jaguars rookie? The third-round pick out of Maryland has been a bright spot on the Jags' defense. He has a sack in four straight games. He also has forced three fumbles and picked off a pass. And he's only 21.
10. Joey Bosa, DE, San Diego Chargers
Previously ranked: NR | Final 2016 Big Board rank: 2
Bosa's holdout and hamstring injury kept him in the news but off the field until earlier this month. He has been fantastic in the two games he has played, with two sacks and multiple pressures. I said before the draft that the high-motor Bosa had a very high floor -- he's going to be really good for a Chargers team that has three rookies in my top 10.
11. Karl Joseph, S, Oakland Raiders
Previously ranked: 11 | Final 2016 Big Board rank: 13
After playing no defensive snaps in Weeks 1 and 2, Joseph took over as the Raiders' starting strong safety. With ball skills and a physical edge, Joseph brings a fear factor to the defense as an explosive, controlled hitter. The No. 14 overall pick had an interception and fumble recovery in the win over the Chargers in Week 5.
12. Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints
Previously ranked: 14 | Final 2016 Big Board rank: 67
Thomas is still raw, and his ceiling is very high. But he leads the Saints in catches and is second in targets in their pass-happy offense. He also has a touchdown in his past three games. The second-round pick was a big-play threat at Ohio State, but he's averaging just 11.8 yards per reception in the NFL. One interesting note: He has no catches between the hashes.
13. Cody Whitehair, C, Chicago Bears
Previously ranked: 13 | Final 2016 Big Board rank: 57
When I scouted Whitehair before the draft, I thought he would need to move away from tackle and play guard or center in the NFL. I thought he could be an immediate starter on the interior. Now, he has thrived in the middle of the Bears' offensive line after they initially slated him at guard, then moved him over after signing Josh Sitton. Chicago picked up a guy in the second round who can start for many years.
14. Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants
Previously ranked: 5 | Final 2016 Big Board rank: 43
The second-round pick's production has taken a dive recently -- he has only 142 receiving yards in his past four games -- but he's still getting targeted by Eli Manning. He's second on the Giants in targets with 41, and he has 26 catches and two touchdowns on the season. Sixteen of his catches have gone for first downs.
15. Rashard Robinson, CB, San Francisco 49ers
Previously ranked: NR | Final 2016 Big Board rank: 245
The 49ers have allowed the seventh-fewest passing yards per game -- their No. 32-ranked rushing defense is another story -- and Robinson has been a solid addition. The fourth-round pick who played only 20 games at LSU filled in for an injured Jimmie Ward and played well. After suffering a concussion in the loss to the Bills, the 6-foot-1 Robinson could be out this week.
16. Deion Jones, ILB, Atlanta Falcons
Previously ranked: 15 | Final 2016 Big Board rank: 49
A second-round pick, Jones has been productive for the 4-2 Falcons. The 6-foot-1, 222-pound defender is undersized, but he can play the pass well in the middle of the Atlanta defense. He had a 90-yard pick-six in the Week 3 win over the Saints. He missed Atlanta's win over Denver because of an ankle injury, but he returned last week.
17. Cody Kessler, QB, Cleveland Browns
Previously ranked: NR | Final 2016 Big Board rank: 184
Kessler, forced to play because of injuries to Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown, has been better than expected. I thought the undersized (6-1, 215 pounds) signal-caller would be a career backup -- he regressed as a senior at USC, and he doesn't have a big-time arm. But he has been efficient early on, completing 65.6 percent of his passes and throwing just one interception (with four touchdown passes). Now, Kessler's efficiency hasn't led to wins for the 0-6 Browns, but his play is one of the few bright spots so far. I ranked him as my No. 13 QB before the draft.
18. Will Fuller, WR, Houston Texans
Previously ranked: 4 | Final 2016 Big Board rank: 31
Fuller has dropped here -- he has only one catch in the past two weeks and is dealing with a hamstring injury. He has made some big plays, though; he's averaging 16.4 yards per catch and has two touchdowns. He's a big-play threat on every route, and he has blinding speed when healthy (4.32-second 40-yard dash).
19. Jarran Reed, DT, Seattle Seahawks
Previously ranked: NR | Final 2016 Big Board rank: 21
Don't judge Reed by the stat sheet, although he does have a sack. The second-round pick has played only 130 snaps in the Seahawks' defensive line rotation. The 6-3, 311-pound defensive tackle is a powerful guy up front who can control the line of scrimmage. I rated him as the best run defender in the draft among linemen.
20. Jalen Ramsey, CB, Jacksonville Jaguars
Previously ranked: 12 | Final 2016 Big Board rank: 3
Ramsey has been good, not great. He has been burned a few times. He's a truly gifted player with the size and speed to be an All-Pro defender. The lack of interceptions was the only knock on Ramsey coming out of Florida State; he had only three in his college career, and he's waiting for his first pro pick.
Next in line
Su'a Cravens, LB, Washington Redskins; Blake Martinez, ILB, Green Bay Packers; Cory James, ILB, Oakland Raiders; Ryan Kelly, C, Indianapolis Colts; Jordan Howard, RB, Chicago Bears; Andy Janovich, FB, Denver Broncos; Darron Lee, ILB, New York Jets; Taylor Decker, OT, Detroit Lions; Alex Lewis, OT/OG, Baltimore Ravens; Adolphus Washington, DL, Buffalo Bills; Elandon Roberts, LB, New England Patriots
Thanks bro.
5-on-5 predictions: How many young stars do the Lakers have?
Are D'Angelo Russell, Julius Randle and Brandon Ingram future stars? Are the Lakers headed in the right direction? Which trades should they make?
Our NBA Insiders preview Los Angeles' 2016-17 season.
1. How many future stars do the Lakers have?
Amin Elhassan, ESPN Insider: 1.5, but don't ask me who. The Lakers have gone about their rebuild in the correct fashion by collecting a variety of talented players who perform different functions; the hard part is figuring out which gamble will pay off. Realistically, Brandon Ingram andD'Angelo Russell are the two with the highest upsides among them.
Projections
How will the Los Angeles Lakers do this year? Here are our projections using ESPN's real plus-minus and Summer Forecast.
RPM
West standing: No. 15
Wins: 24.6
Summer Forecast
West standing: No. 15
Record: 25-57
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: 1.5. I'm not very high on Julius Randle, whose game reminds me too much of former No. 1 pick Anthony Bennett. I think D'Angelo Russell and Brandon Ingram can develop into stars, but it's not a given that both do. Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. can develop into decent rotation players, but probably not into stars.
Baxter Holmes, ESPN.com: Two: Russell and Ingram. The Lakers said Russell possessed "superstar" potential after drafting him in 2015, and he showed flashes last season and even more in summer league and preseason. With former coach Byron Scott gone, and without the restrictions of a Kobe Bryant farewell tour, this should be a breakout season for Russell. Ingram needs a few years to develop physically, but his skill set, size, athleticism and talent are all promising. He's also only 19.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: 1.5. I think Russell will get there. He looks much improved during preseason, and if he establishes himself as L.A.'s top offensive option, he's on his way. The 1/2 is for Brandon Ingram. There is nothing I've seen that trumps his pre-draft projections, but he just looks so raw right now. He should be really good, but there's a lot that could go wrong, too.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: I'd put the line at 1.5. A strong preseason is the latest indicator that Russell is likely to become an All-Star-caliber player, leaving the Lakers needing one other player to come along. Clarkson, Randle and Nance are long shots to reach that level, in my opinion, but No. 2 pick Ingram has a reasonable shot at getting there.
2. Your take on the signings of Timofey Mozgov and Luol Deng?
Holmes: The Lakers needed some adults in the room to quell immaturity issues surrounding a young core, and they needed a respectable big, so they at least checked off a couple of boxes. Each player came at a cost, but so does everyone these days. That said, did the Lakers need to give them four-year deals? That part makes me scratch my head.
Elhassan: I think after the Lakers got done with their signings -- including re-upping Jordan Clarkson at a very reasonable $12.5 million per year -- we all took a step back and said that had the signings gone in a different order for the same amounts, there would be considerably less outrage.
But the fact that the Lakers really led off league-wide free agency with a massive contract for Mozgov -- a big guy with a history of knee issues who barely played during the second half of the season -- made their offseason seem a lot more egregious, especially when many consider the Mozgov number to have set the market for the deals that happened across the league in the hours thereafter.
Doolittle: As has been written many times, the Lakers jumped the gun on throwing that contact at Mozgov so soon. After the way he played last season, it's in doubt whether he's even a starting-quality center in the NBA.
Deng is as good a locker room guy as there is; he'll hold the kids accountable and set a good example. I think that's important. I'm much more confused as to why Deng would want the Lakers than why they'd want him.
Engelmann: Not a fan. I can see why Lakers management figured that more hard tanking doesn't make sense: They owe either their 2017 or 2018 first-rounder to the 76ers. (The '17 pick is top-three-protected.) Still, Mozgov probably would have been happy with half the money, while Deng might be taking minutes away from Ingram, as they play the same position.
Pelton: Too much money and way too many years to players who are too old. The Lakers sacrificed their salary-cap flexibility for two veterans who are unlikely to be starters when their young players get to the point where the team can compete for a playoff spot.
3. What is the biggest issue facing the Lakers this season?
Elhassan: Trying to figure out who is a keeper. Inevitably, with so many young players trying to find their way on different development curves, there can be a lot of noise masking what are the best bets to go with moving forward.
Engelmann: Probably inexperience. At some point, they might start three players age 21 and younger in Ingram, Russell and Randle. Ingram, who is 190 pounds, will have to put on a significant amount of weight, while everyone who was there last season will to adjust to the fact that their usage will rise with Kobe gone.
Doolittle: With Russell, Ingram, Randle and Nance on board, the Lakers have a group that should be around for a while, with other lottery additions on the way. This season is all about getting those guys acclimated to coach Luke Walton's system and determining whether any of them aren't going to work in it.
Holmes: Walton had it great as an assistant coach and interim head coach in Golden State -- Hall of Fame talent, picture-perfect culture, front-office/ownership stability and historic success. He has none of that in L.A., where he's the youngest head coach in the league.
He'll receive a grace period because he is a former Laker and is not Byron Scott, but to make people believe that he's the right man to help the Lakers emerge from rebuilding any time soon, Walton needs to show signs this season that he can create an improved on-court product this season.
Pelton: Sorting out the young talent, specifically at power forward. Because of where he was drafted and his superficially strong per-game stats, Randle has been anointed the future at the position, but I'm not sure his skills will work well as the third or fourth option on the kind of team the Lakers eventually hope to build.
4. What trade makes the most sense for the Lakers?
Holmes: At the moment, I'm a big believer that the Lakers need to focus on developing their young core -- rich with many lottery draft picks and possibly another one next summer -- into whatever it might be. Perhaps stars emerge, and they could trade for stars in return. Who knows?
But right now, the Lakers are short on assets, so they need to lock the doors and work with what they have in-house, a strategy that many around the league strongly suggest.
Doolittle: Get Lou Williams out of there. Seriously. Especially now that Clarkson is coming off the bench and seems to have embraced that third-guard role. Williams can help a lot of good teams. He's simply redundant on this one and serves no good purpose.
Elhassan: Outside of cosmetic deals to shed a Nick Young or a Lou Williams, I would definitely stand pat. There really is no rush to try to rapidly improve this roster for short-term success. Let the cake bake at 400 degrees for 40 minutes; don't try to ratchet it up to 800 degrees to cut the time in half.
Engelmann: I'd try to trade Nick Young for locker room reasons, although it'll probably be hard to get good value in return. I'm anything but a fan of Randle, who scored poorly in statistical draft models and now rates badly in various metrics since he entered the NBA (Real Plus-Minus: -4.3), so I'd try to trade to him to a team that still thinks highly of him.
Pelton: Getting some value for Lou Williams at the trade deadline from a team in need of shot creation, such as the Boston Celtics -- even a second-round pick -- would be good for the Lakers, as Williams has been rendered a bit redundant by the development of Clarkson and Russell.
5. What is the biggest source of hope for the Lakers?
Elhassan: The youth movement. Maybe none of them turn into elite stars, but several of them look like they can be solid high-level starters in this league, That, combined with a young coach who also has a world of potential, gives the organization a lot to look forward to.
Holmes: Walton offers hope. Russell, Ingram, Randle, Clarkson and Nance offer hope, too. But uncertainty looms with a potential front-office shakeup next summer, when the timeline on co-owner and executive Jim Buss runs out. If the Lakers can show progress this season and maybe win 25 games, then their future is a little brighter after being dark for recent years. Baby steps, as they say.
Engelmann: That Russell and Ingram take the development path that is expected of No. 2 picks. It will undoubtedly take some time, especially in Ingram's case. But if things go well, they might have their own version of the (former) Russell Westbrook-Kevin Durant tandem on their roster.
Doolittle: These days, it can be hard to get a high-quality coach to invest his time in a developing team that is a long way off. The proven ones can usually find more veteran-heavy groups that are likely to get into the playoffs.
Walton may not be proven, but he seems as close to a sure thing as a coaching prospect could be. He's a Laker at his core, and now it feels like this new era is finally starting to develop an identity.
Pelton: If Russell develops as his talent suggests, the Lakers become an attractive destination for free agents, provided they can maintain the financial discipline to keep a max slot or two open as some of their young players start to get more expensive.
Dr. Narcisse
Veteran
Kiper's 2017 Big Board: Introducing a new No. 1 QB
In this edition of my Big Board: a new No. 1 quarterback and two Pac-12 defensive linemen make their debuts.
A reminder: General scouting reports on these players won't change week to week unless my overall evaluation changes. I'll simply be updating performance notes and providing updates on key matchups to come.
One asterisk denotes a junior, and two asterisks denote a redshirt sophomore for the 2016 season.
1. *Myles Garrett, DE, Texas A&M
Garrett, still dealing with the effects of a high ankle sprain, had a few more tackles for loss in the Aggies' loss to Alabama, though he didn't sack Jalen Hurts. Facing a really good offensive line, he still looked like one of the best players on the field. At 6-foot-5, 265 pounds, Garrett has the length, strength and ability to bend the edge. He's a brilliant, natural pass-rusher and is up to 26.0 career sacks. He looks like a top-five lock.
2. *Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU
Fournette had one of those special games in Saturday's win over Ole Miss, with 284 rushing yards and three touchdowns on just 16 carries. That's 17.8 yards per carry. He's really special when he's healthy -- that was an issue the first half of the season, but he looks much more fluid after being limited by a gimpy ankle. He has an incredible combination of size, speed and power that can make him look like a varsity player hanging with the JV. Mileage was a concern heading into the season, so the ankle injury could benefit him in NFL scouts' eyes. He had a whopping 300 carries in 2015.
3. **Jabrill Peppers, S, Michigan
Peppers' dark-horse Heisman candidacy is probably slipping away, but it's not because he has done anything wrong. He just hasn't had to do much lately for the Wolverines' top-ranked defense, which is allowing only 10.0 points per game. Peppers (6-0, 210 pounds) plays safety, corner and outside linebacker and is a dynamic returner, as he showed on a punt return TD this season. He also plays a little offense, running for two touchdowns in Michigan's 78-0 blowout of Rutgers on Oct. 8. Could he become a Deone Bucannon type of linebacker at the next level? I expect him to test off the charts at the NFL combine.
4. Jonathan Allen, DE, Alabama
I wrote on Monday about Allen's performance against Texas A&M, in which he had a signature sack, returned a fumble for a touchdown and was generally dominant. He was tremendous. He's so relentless and so steady. Allen was stellar in 2015, when he led the Crimson Tide in sacks (12) and tackles for loss (14.5). He's up to six sacks this season on a dominant Alabama defense. Defensive end, defensive tackle -- Allen can play anywhere on the line. By April, he could be in the mix for the top pick.
5. *Jamal Adams, S, LSU
The Tigers gave up only 16 and 18 points in their two losses. In other words, don't blame Adams and the defense. Next up, though, is No. 1 Alabama on Nov. 5. Adams has great bloodlines -- his dad, George Adams, was the No. 19 overall pick in the 1985 NFL draft -- and he is built for today's NFL as a versatile safety who can play in the box effectively, make tackles against the run and move to the edges and track slot receivers. There is a premium on these monsterbacks.
6. Reuben Foster, ILB, Alabama
Foster is a big-time inside linebacker, and he might have been Alabama's best linebacker last season. Yes, that means better than Reggie Ragland, who went in the second round to the Bills in this year's draft and whom I had as the No. 24-ranked prospect. Foster has more range, runs sideline to sideline and is a more complete player. Expect him to follow in the footsteps of inside linebackers from Alabama who have gone in the first round, such as Rolando McClain, Dont'a Hightower and C.J. Mosley.
7. *Malik McDowell, DT, Michigan State
McDowell has had some growing pains, but he has matured into an elite-level prospect. He's a fantastic athlete with a 6-6, 290-pound frame. Production has been his issue -- he has 1.5 sacks in his past two games but just 7.5 in his career. I do see him overwhelming blockers one-on-one and/or winning with quickness, though. He's a talent.
8. Tim Williams, OLB, Alabama
Williams, my top-ranked prospect in my preseason Big Board, does one thing incredibly well: rush the passer. And that's what NFL teams are looking for. He's a fantastic pass-rushing talent who can be unblockable at times. After 10.5 sacks in 2015 -- on only about 20 percent of Alabama's defensive snaps -- Williams has 6.5 this season, including three in his past two games. At 6-4, 250, he needs to show he can do the other things required from an outside linebacker, like setting the edge and playing the run.
9. Takkarist McKinley, DE, UCLA
Pac-12 offensive tackles are having nightmares about McKinley, who is a dominant speed rusher. At 6-2, 240, he's not huge, but his explosion off the line is suited for today's NFL. A former junior-college player, McKinley has really come on as a senior. He has seven sacks this season, including three in the Bruins' loss to Utah last weekend, when he also forced two fumbles. He has impressed me with his motor, too, even while dealing with multiple injuries.
10. *Dalvin Cook, RB, Florida State
Cook is a home run hitter who can turn small creases into massive gains. After a slow start to the season, he has rushed for 115 or more yards in his past four games, including a 267-yard effort at South Florida. He's averaging 5.7 yards per carry, and he's approaching his catch total from last season with 21 receptions for 356 yards. With good hands and the ability to find and pick up blitzes, he's versatile.
11. *Derek Barnett, DE, Tennessee
Barnett has been a monster the past four weeks, with six sacks, a few more tackles for loss and several play disruptions. He even had an interception in the loss to Alabama. At 6-3, 265 pounds, Barnett is an all-around defender who beats double-teams, makes plays in the run game and gets after quarterbacks. I see him as a 4-3 defensive end in the NFL, not a 3-4 outside linebacker, but that shouldn't hurt his value. He's a really good player.
12. **Solomon Thomas, DE, Stanford
Thomas, only a third-year sophomore, is the best player on Stanford's defense and one of the best defenders in the Pac-12. He plays like a veteran, causing disruptions in both the running and passing game. He has 5.5 sacks this season while playing end, but at 6-3, 270 pounds, he could move inside and play tackle, too. The versatility is what stands out. And he has some speed -- check out this fumble return.
13. *Mike Williams, WR, Clemson
Williams, my No. 1 receiver, has put behind him the scary neck injury that prematurely ended his 2015 season, and he's back to being Deshaun Watson's go-to target. He had 12 catches for 146 yards and a touchdown in the Tigers' overtime win over NC State. Williams has great burst and speed for his size (6-2, 225 pounds). He's productive, too, and put up more than 1,000 receiving yards as a sophomore in 2014.
14. *Mitch Trubisky, QB, North Carolina
Welcome to the Big Board, Mitch Trubisky. He's my new No. 1 quarterback. I've been looking for a QB to make the leap this season, and I found it in Trubisky, who has been the best signal-caller in the country -- yes, that includes Louisville's Lamar Jackson, who has missed too many throws overall. Trubisky (6-3, 220) is completing 71.2 percent of his passes in his first season as the full-time starter, even with the nightmare game while playing in Hurricane Matthew in which he was just 13-of-33. He has 18 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. He throws a nice ball, has some touch and velocity, and is mobile, too. He has four rushing touchdowns.
15. **Marshon Lattimore, CB, Ohio State
This is the year of the third-year sophomore, and Ohio State has two really good ones who could jump to the draft. Buckeyes safety Malik Hooker was in my previous Big Board, and this is Lattimore's first appearance. Lattimore (6-1, 190) is a first-year starter who struggled with a hamstring injury during his first two years in Columbus. He has been fantastic this season, standing out in a group of talented defenders. Lattimore tackles well and has locked down receivers; he has three interceptions. The cornerback class for the 2017 draft could be special, and Lattimore is in the top tier.