Essential The Official ESPN Insider Thread (ESPN+)

[Skooby]

Ranking 10 best sophomores this NBA season

Ranking Towns, Porzingis and the best NBA sophomores

Ford: We tackled our favorites for Rookie of the Year already. While there's lots of excitement generated by the ROY race, the truth is that only a small handful of rookies make any real impact in the win-loss column for teams.

But by their sophomore year, we can start to expect to see a bigger impact, and we have a stellar group of sophomores.

Let's rank them from 1 to 10 in terms of what we should expect this season.


At least two players, perhaps more, looking like they will be potential All-Stars this season and perhaps superstars before too long.

At the top for me is Karl Anthony-Towns. At this point, the question doesn't seem to be whether he's the best player in this class. The question is just how high he'll climb among the rankings of all players in the next few seasons. I think Towns has the potential to be a top-five player someday. Maybe top two.

Everything we saw in Minnesota last season points to him potentially surpassing Anthony Davis as the top big man in the league.

I'm assuming he's No. 1 on your board as well, Kevin. What should we expect from him in Year 2?

Pelton: I fear setting the bar too high for Towns' second season, which is unfair to someone who won't turn 21 until November. So let's talk about hopes rather than expectations.

I hope Towns will be a defensive anchor in Tom Thibodeau's system despite nominally playing power forward in all likelihood. I hope that and a more competitive Timberwolves team are enough to earn All-Star consideration. And as an observer I hope we get to see Towns in the playoffs, which would be a blast.

The one thing I'll say I expect is that casual fans will fall in love with Towns' game on Christmas Day, when Minnesota will play Oklahoma City on ESPN.

Now things get more interesting. Who's No. 2 for you?

Ford: I've been a Kristaps Porzingis fan since before the draft and everything he did in New York last year makes me think he'll become a perennial All-Star. As he gets stronger and improves his jump shot, I think he's going to be a devastating NBA big man.

I hesitate a bit this season given all of the Knicks' summer additions. With Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah, Courtney Lee and Brandon Jennings in the fold, I wonder if he'll have as many opportunities as he did last season -- especially offensively. I think he'll get the minutes, but it might be harder for him to be the Knicks' No. 2 guy.

Then again, I think Porzingis is so good that even next year he might already be better than all four.

What do you think? I have a feeling you're bullish on a different international player at No. 2.

Pelton: Yeah, I had Nikola Jokic here the last time we did this exercise, and nothing that has happened since has changed my mind. While it hasn't been a great Olympics overall for Jokic, who has struggled with foul trouble at times and is playing behind former NBA center Miroslav Raduljica, watching him rain fire on a helpless U.S. defense showed a glimpse of his tantalizing skills.

There are good reasons to believe that Porzingis is only scratching the surface of his potential: He's 21 and the adjustment to the NBA (and in particular the NBA 3-point line) is often difficult for first-year international players.

Here's the thing, though: All of that applies to Jokic too, and he was by many all-in-one measures the better player as a rookie. It will be interesting to see how Michael Malone handles having Jokic and a healthy Jusuf Nurkic this season, but whatever the solution it shouldn't be to take minutes away from Jokic.

Ford: I see the appeal of Jokic both statistically and on the court. And the performance against the U.S. was impressive (though he's not the only one shredding Team USA's defense this summer). He's definitely in my top five.

But I'm going to go with the Suns' Devin Booker here. He was one of the youngest rookies in the league last year. His skill set as a ball handler and a passer are developing nicely. His work ethic is outstanding. And he can really, really shoot the basketball. I see a lot of Klay Thompson in Booker and given how well he played post All-Star break, I think he's in for a breakout sophomore season.

Pelton: If not second, Porzingis has to be third. My concern with the Knicks' offseason is more that bringing in Noah and Porzingis' former Sevilla teammate Willy Hernangomez seems to block Porzingis' path to center, where I think he can be a devastating offensive force. But given Noah's history of injuries, Porizingis may end up seeing minutes there, and he's pretty good at power forward too.

Who's fourth for you?

Ford: Jokic for me. And I'm tempted to go with several guards who might be able to take big leaps in Year 2, but for all the reasons you stated, I think Jokic is the safest pick here.

You had D'Angelo Russell at No. 4 at the end of the season. Is he still No. 4 for you now?


Pelton: Since we're talking strictly about performance next season and not looking that far ahead, I'm going to go in a different direction.

After the three top finishers for Rookie of the Year, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson might have been the next-best rookie last season because of his defensive value. When he was on the court, Hollis-Jefferson ranked fourth among rookies who averaged at least 15 minutes per game in ESPN's real plus-minus behind the three players ahead of him on this list.

Hollis-Jefferson missed 50 games because of a fractured ankle, but is fully recovered now and should benefit offensively from the Nets upgrading at point guard with the addition of Jeremy Lin.

Who rounds out your top five?

Ford: I'm having a hard time separating the pack after those four. Jefferson, along with the Pacers' Myles Turner, the Heat's Justise Winslow, the Nuggets' Emmanuel Mudiay and Russell are all in the running for me. I could make a case for each of them having a breakout season and in all five cases, they should be playing significant minutes for their team.

Hollis-Jefferson is a defensive monster. So is Winslow and his offensive output should increase now that Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng are both gone. Mudiay and Russell showed the obvious growing pains that accompany rookie point guards, but I expect to see major improvements for both of them this season.

And Turner was a real surprise for me last year with how quickly he adapted to the NBA. His performance during the playoffs, especially as a shot-blocker, was wowing. If I'm forced to pick from that group, I think I'd lean Turner.

How about you, Kevin?

Pelton: I'm going to stick with lower-upside veterans and go with Winslow's Miami teammate Josh Richardson. After he shot a respectable 37.0 percent on 3-pointers in the playoffs, Richardson's second-half shooting surge looks less like a fluke, and he was effective running the point during a brief three-game cameo at the Orlando Pro Summer League. Add that to Richardson's proven defensive aptitude and he looks like a league-average player or better.

With Wade and Joe Johnson heading elsewhere, it's possible that Richardson could be the Heat's best option at shooting guard next to Goran Dragic as well as in the mix for minutes behind Dragic, so I think he'll make a big impact in Year 2.

Ford: Here's my next five:

6. Emmanuel Mudiay
7. Justise Winslow
8. D'Angelo Russell
9. Rondae Hollis-Jefferson
10. Josh Richardson

I'm a bit of a Mudiay homer. He was terrible the first half of the season but came on late. If he can improve his shot selection and cut down on turnovers, I think he still has a really high ceiling. He also should get plenty of minutes in Denver this year.

Winslow was a terrific defender as a rookie and now he'll get more of an offensive opportunity now. Russell was much better during the second half of the season for the Lakers and should also get more opportunities to score and create. Hollis-Jefferson is a jump shot away from being a dominant two-way player, and I agree that Richardson has a shot to have a breakout year with Wade gone.

I didn't even mention Utah's Trey Lyles, the Sixers' Jahlil Okafor, the Pistons' Stanley Johnson and the Celtics' Terry Rozier, who had a bit of a coming-out party in the summer league. It's a pretty loaded class.

Pelton: I've got:

6. Devin Booker
7. D'Angelo Russell
8. Justise Winslow
9. Myles Turner
10. Emmanuel Mudiay

I'd put Booker and Russell in a similar category. I think both are likely to be good offensive players but their poor defense will limit their value. Booker may have to defend small forwards on a regular basis next season playing alongside Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight, and Russell got torched in summer league, as he did during the regular season.

Winslow is the opposite; I might move him up to sixth if Chris Bosh doesn't return and he gets to play power forward. Otherwise, I think his non-shooting is too much of an issue at small forward.

Turner is also going to be asked to do a lot anchoring the Pacers' defense.

I agree Mudiay played much better late in the season but that's partially because the bar wasn't set very high early. So you could talk me into taking Justin Anderson over him.

 

[Jplaya2023]

thanks @Skooby as always my friend.

Wheres the coli yahoo pickem i need to register

 

[Skooby]

thanks @Skooby as always my friend.

Wheres the coli yahoo pickem i need to register

Join a Group | Pro Football Pick'em | Yahoo Sports

Group ID: 875

Password: Coliseum

 

[Joe Sixpack]

@Skooby Can I have please get that John Clayton article on the Vikings QB options

 

[Skooby]

@Skooby Can I have please get that John Clayton article on the Vikings QB options

QBs the Vikings could target if Teddy Bridgewater is out for season



The Minnesota Vikings' Super Bowl hopes crashed Tuesday when quarterback Teddy Bridgewater went down with a "significant" knee injury.

When asked if Bridgewater could miss the season, coach Mike Zimmer said "it doesn't look good right now."


If Bridgewater is out for the season, it's going to be tough for the Vikings to get through a 16-game schedule with 36-year-old Shaun Hill at quarterback. The other two quarterbacks on their roster are Taylor Heinicke, who was an undrafted free agent in 2015, and Joel Stave, who went undrafted this year. They could also bring back Brad Sorensen, who was cut on Tuesday, but he likely isn't an option to start.

A season-ending injury to Bridgewater would force the Vikings to be aggressive in trying to find a replacement. They would need to bring in someone who could challenge Hill and Heinicke. Here are the quarterbacks I think fit best if Bridgewater is out for a significant amount of time.

1. Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers
Forget the controversy about the national anthem. Kaepernick has to be a consideration. San Francisco coach Chip Kelly hasn't named a starter, but Blaine Gabbert appears to have the job, and I'm sure 49ers ownership wouldn't mind unloading Kaepernick. Still, Kaepernick has talent and could be worked into a Norv Turner offense that features the run.



To facilitate such a trade, Kaepernick would either have to restructure his contract, or the 49ers would need to kick in money to help the Vikings. Kaepernick's $12.9 million salary is guaranteed, and the Vikings have only $6.2 million of cap room. A fifth-round pick might be all it takes to get the trade done. This might not be a popular move, but I think it's the Vikings' best option.

2. Brandon Weeden, Houston Texans
Turner coached Weeden in 2013 when he was offensive coordinator of the Cleveland Browns. Weeden started five games for Turner and played eight. His numbers weren't good. Weeden completed 52.8 percent of his passes and had 9 touchdowns and 9 interceptions. But he does know the system.

3. Christian Ponder, San Francisco 49ers
Ponder was being phased out as the Vikings' starting quarterback when Turner arrived in Minnesota as the offensive coordinator. He had one start and threw 44 passes.

4. Mark Sanchez, Denver Broncos
It's clear the Broncos would like to move him now that Trevor Siemian has won the starting job in Denver. At $4.5 million, Sanchez would fit in the Vikings' salary cap. The paths of Turner and Sanchez haven't crossed. The Vikings are going to rely heavily on running back Adrian Peterson regardless, and Sanchez could manage the offense.

5. Geno Smith, New York Jets
Though this isn't a great option, it is an available option. The Jets could trade him for a low draft choice. Smith, who is 11-18 as a starter, is in the last year of his contract. He has a decent arm, but his career completion percentage is just 57.9.

6. Brian Hoyer, Chicago Bears
Hoyer spent the 2013 season with the Browns when Turner was offensive coordinator. Weeden suffered a thumb injury on Sept. 18. Hoyer filled in and did well. The Browns won all three of his starts, and he completed 59.4 percent of his passes with 5 touchdowns and 3 interceptions. An ACL tear ended his season. He's on a cheap one-year deal with the Bears. Would they part with him? They might hold onto him as insurance for starter Jay Cutler.

7. Charlie Whitehurst, free agent
Whitehurst spent two years as a backup for Turner when he was with the San Diego Chargers from 2007 to 2009. He didn't get on the field in three seasons. He spent last season with the Titans and Colts.

8. Matt Cassel, Tennessee Titans
Cassel was Bridgewater's backup in 2014. He had three starts and completed 57.7 percent of his passes and had 3 touchdowns and 4 interceptions that year. But he wasn't good with the Cowboys last season, and he's down the list of options.

9. EJ Manuel, Buffalo Bills
Manuel is in the last year of his contract with the Bills, and they aren't expected to bring him back next season after signing Tyrod Taylor to a contract extension. He has 22 starts on his resume, and a trade would likely cost the Vikings a low draft pick.

10. T.J. Yates, free agent
Yates was cleared to return to the field after recovering from an ACL tear suffered last year. He threw 57 passes with 3 touchdowns and 1 interception for the Texans last season. He's 4-3 as a starter in his career.

 

[THASTUNNA]

MLB Insiders Roundtable: September predictions, heroes and dark horses

 

[Skooby]

MLB Insiders Roundtable: September predictions, heroes and dark horses

MLB Insiders Roundtable: Pennant race predictions, September heroes and stretch-run dark horses


Are the Mets and Royals destined to return to the playoffs? Who will fade away as the pennant races heat up? How many games will the Cubs win anyway? We asked. Our experts answered:


Which contender will fade down the stretch?
Jim Bowden: I think the Orioles will fade down the stretch. Their starting rotation is shallow and inconsistent, and their schedule is among the most difficult of any contending team. Manager Buck Showalter is one of the game's best, but he can't take the mound every fifth day, nor can he change the schedule.

Keith Law: Baltimore has already been fading, thanks to its starting pitching. The Orioles have the worst starters' ERA of any contender this season and the third-worst total ERA of any AL team in the second half.



Buster Olney: The Pirates, but maybe that has already happened. They came into the second half with such an enormous scheduling advantage, but through injuries and ineffectiveness, they just haven't really gathered lasting traction in the second half. I watched their loss to the Cardinals on Labor Day, and it really looked like the fight had gone out of them, for the first time.

Which dark horse team will make it?
Bowden: My dark horse teams are the Tigers, Royals and Astros. Yes, all three of them. I love the Tigers' deep lineup and the great year Michael Fulmer has had. I love the fact the Astros won't give up. They keep grinding every night as Jose Altuve competes with Mookie Betts for AL MVP. And the Royals have been there so much lately that they could easily make another run to play October baseball again.

Law: Right now I wouldn't pick any team that's more than two games out of a wild-card spot to make it. Of everyone else, I'd say the Mariners have the best chance, but I still wouldn't predict them to make the playoffs.

Olney: The Mets, partly because of the mediocrity of the teams around them, but also because of the performance of guys who've stepped in: the ReplaceMets, such as Seth Lugo. To see a team built on the power of its rotation lose three of its five starters -- to say nothing of its first baseman, second baseman or third baseman -- and still be in position to win is shocking. It's hard to imagine the Mets keeping up with the Giants, but they might well knock them out.

Royals: Yea or nay, and why?
Bowden: I'm not betting against the Royals getting to the playoffs. They've been to the World Series the past two seasons. They have found their ace in Danny Duffy, they still have one of the best bullpens in the game and their nucleus is in tact, led by Salvador Perez, Alex Gordon, Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar.


Law: Nay. They're four games back of the last spot and would have to jump over three teams to get there. That's asking a lot of any team, and I don't think the Royals are that much better than their record to date that I'd predict a surge like that.

Olney: Their chances for reaching October are currently assessed at less than 5 percent, but scheduling dynamics could still make a difference for them. While the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Orioles, Yankees and Rays are all pounding away at each other over the last 3½ weeks, the Royals get to play the weakest teams in the American League. So I still think they have a real chance to make the postseason with a late run. They really need one or two hitters to get scorching hot in the last two weeks to make this happen, though.

Who wins the AL East?
Bowden: I picked the Blue Jays to win the AL East back in spring training, so why change now? The rotation is deep, and the bullpen has been more effective than Boston's in the sixth through eighth innings for most of the year. Josh Donaldson is having another MVP-caliber year, and Devon Travis is a secret weapon.

Law: Toronto, by a game or two over Boston. I think the Blue Jays have a slightly more favorable schedule, and I don't think the Red Sox's relief issues are going away any time soon. But it's pretty close either way.

Olney: The Blue Jays. They are still the most complete team in the division, with a well-rounded pitching staff, and the difficulty of Boston's schedule and the Orioles' on-going rotation problems might eventually take down those two teams. But I will say this: I have chronically, consistently underestimated the Orioles all season. Before the year started, my thinking was that Baltimore was the one team that couldn't win the division because of its lack of starting pitching. What genius that turned out to be.

How many games will the Cubs win?
Bowden: 104 games. That's 15-9 the rest of the way. They could win more, but they'll rest enough of their players during the balance of the season to not win some of the games they could have.

Law: 104.

Olney: 104. They're playing great, but I think they'll probably have at least a lull in performance this month as they face more desperate teams, and Joe Maddon will make sure his guys are rested for October. They'll need the extra time off to prepare for the pressure they'll face in the postseason, which might well be the most any team has ever seen. Whether this affects them is a completely different question.


Who's this year's Madison Bumgarner or Yoenis Cespedes (second-half heroes)?
Bowden: Mookie Betts, Adrian Beltre, Jose Altuve, Josh Donaldson, Kris Bryant and Max Scherzer are this year's second-half heroes for me.

Law: Nobody. That's the narrative people assign after the fact. Cespedes wasn't the only reason or even the main reason the Mets got to the playoffs last year, but that's how people like to tell the story. Maybe we'll tell the story of Detroit's surge to a wild-card spot thanks to Justin Upton getting a few days off in August to clear his head, but that won't be the only reason the Tigers get in if they do so.

Olney: J.D. Martinez. With Ian Kinsler, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez in the same lineup, he's going to get a ton of opportunities to do damage in big spots, and he has shown he continues to develop as a hitter this year. He has been more patient, and his rate of harder contact continues to increase. No pitcher or manager will ever be convinced that it's a good idea to go after Miguel Cabrera, which means they'll have to attack Martinez, and he has responded well to this.

 

[satam55]

@Skooby Can you post this?: Confidential: What Big 12 coaches really think about Texas

 

[Skooby]

@Skooby Can you post this?: Confidential: What Big 12 coaches really think about Texas

Confidential: Do anonymous coaches think Texas is moving up?

Charlie Strong wants opponents to notice certain things about Texas this season.

A dynamic, fast-paced offense. An aggressive, pressuring defense. Unbridled special teams. And something else, more abstract.

"I want the other team to see that, 'God, these guys have changed. They play so hard,'" said Strong, entering his third year as Longhorns coach. "Each year when they say you don't play hard, you don't do this or that, you know ..."

But do opposing coaches share the same optimism as Strong? Insider spoke with Big 12 coaches about what they've seen from Texas under Strong, and what could be coming in Year 3.

Strong's voice trailed off when he was addressing the Longhorns' effort, but he didn't need to say more. The perception that Texas lacks effort, likely fueled by the team's 11-14 record under Strong and 41-35 mark since 2010, chafes Strong. Resolve has been a hallmark of his teams. If anything, his third Texas edition will display more of it.

Opposing coaches and Strong are in agreement. Texas' path to improvement starts with dramatic improvement at quarterback.

Texas finished 122nd nationally in both pass yards (1,751) and pass touchdowns (9) last season, a distant last in the Big 12 in both categories. Jerrod Heard had his moments, but neither he nor Tyrone Swoopes, who started all but one game in 2014, were able to consistently propel the offense.

Heard and Swoopes both return this season, but most of the focus entering camp will be on freshman Shane Buechele, a mid-year enrollee who dazzled during Texas' spring game. Buechele passed for 299 yards and two scores while operating the team's new up-tempo offense coordinated by Sterlin Gilbert.

"Shane's going to be good," a Big 12 coach said.

"If they can protect him, he'll be great," added an offensive assistant who faces Texas this season.

Strong thought Buechele's strong spring intensified the approach for both Heard and Swoopes. Buechele essentially "forced their hand," Strong said.

The competition continues this month, but Strong must decide whether Buechele, seemingly the future at quarterback, is also the answer right now. Texas opens against Notre Dame, which humiliated the Longhorns 38-3 last year. Texas generated only 103 pass yards in the loss. After hosting Notre Dame and UTEP, Texas visits Cal and Oklahoma State before facing Oklahoma in Dallas. It's a challenging and critical beginning stretch, one that is hardly ideal to entrust to a freshman quarterback.

But Strong might not have a choice.

"Even for appearance, right?" a Big 12 coach said. "You go 7-5 with a young guy, maybe they're like, 'This is headed in the right direction.' If they go with another guy, the first incompletion he throws, the crowd will start chanting for [Buechele]."

Strong won't base his decisions on public perception, but he understands the mood of Texas fans.

"They've seen the last two years of who's been the quarterback," Strong said. "Their whole thing is, we've got to see something different. And Buchele had a really good spring game -- he threw for almost 300 yards -- so it's why everybody's all excited."

As for the difficult opening stretch? "I just think this kid can handle it," Strong said. "He just has the presence. You can put him in that position and I guarantee he'll act like it's no big deal."

Another potential issue for Texas is who helps the quarterback create more explosive plays. Last season, Texas finished 107th nationally in percentage of plays generating more than 10 yards (17.3 percent).

Several opposing coaches struggled to identify Texas' top offensive skill position players.

"I honestly couldn't tell you one," a Big 12 coach said. "Chris Warren, the running back, that's it."

Another Big 12 coach acknowledged, "It's not normal for them. I don't know that they necessarily need to be names, because I don't know that it always translates, but for whatever reason, you always knew the household names with them."

Strong thinks Texas will have enough at both running back with Warren and D'Onta Foreman, who both weigh around 250 pounds, and at receiver with the 6-foot-3 John Burt and 6-6 freshman Collin Johnson leading the corps.

"They look talented," a Big 12 defensive coordinator said. "They're long, athletic, but you don't ever really see them do anything. I think it was all because of quarterback."

Opposing coaches identified several standouts on Texas' defense, gushing over sophomore linebacker Malik Jefferson but also singling out defensive backs like Dylan Haines and Holton Hill. Several coaches pointed out a theme with Texas: most of the team's most promising players are Strong's recruits.

"They're hitting on them," a Big 12 coach said. "Those guys are the ones playing."

A Big 12 offensive assistant added that the group of one-time Baylor recruits whom Texas added following Baylor's scandal and coaching change provided "another wave" of talent. Baylor signeePatrick Hudson, ESPN's top-rated guard in the 2016 class, is already considered one of Texas' best offensive linemen.

Texas played 17 freshmen last season, and its projected depth chart features mostly sophomores, juniors and freshmen like Johnson and Hudson.

"They're young and they return everybody," an opposing offensive coordinator said. "I know that it's do-or-die for them right now, but they've got all the tools."

Added an opposing coach: "Charlie did not forget how to coach. They're getting close."

Strong sounds more confident about his third Texas roster, saying, "When you don't have the players that you really need, you can't really be aggressive." He likes that so many young offensive players came from high school systems that mirror what Gilbert will run. He expects a more potent offense will allow the Longhorns defense to take more chances.

The outside view of Texas also seems to be brighter entering Strong's third season.

"Coach Strong has proven in the past to be a great coach," a Big 12 offensive assistant said. "They're going to be better. It's only a matter of time."

 

[TheMadLionsFan]

Week 1 surprises to buy, sellCan I get This Posted?

Surprises I'm buying, selling from Week 1 in NFL

 

[Jplaya2023]

How Oklahoma will renew its playoff hopes with one win

 

[Skooby]

Week 1 surprises to buy, sellCan I get This Posted?

Surprises I'm buying, selling from Week 1 in NFL

Surprises I'm buying, selling from Week 1 in NFL


Week 1 in the NFL usually features its share of surprises, and this season is no exception. From the Minnesota Vikings winning without an offensive touchdown to the New England Patriots winning without their two best players, there's no shortage to sort through. Here's a look at which ones I'm buying and which ones I'm leaving on the shelf for now.

Surprises I'm buying

The Lions without Calvin Johnson: The Lions finished their 39-35 victory at Indianapolis with 213 yards after the catch, their most since Week 8 of the 2013 season. Matthew Stafford used a short passing game to complete 31 of 39 passes for 340 yards and three scores. He now has 22 TDs with two picks in nine games with Jim Bob Cooter as his offensive coordinator.

The Patriots' competence without Tom Brady: Could the Patriots have been any better prepared to function without their future Hall of Fame quarterback? It wasn't about winning or losing the game in Arizona; it was about competing on even footing under the circumstances. New England passed that test. The Pats went across multiple time zones to play the defending NFC West champs with a first-time starting quarterback and no Rob Gronkowski, and they competed on even footing, even holding the upper hand much of the game.
"People talk about next man up, but they really have the puzzle pieces and can grind out the wins," a coach from another team marveled. "This was no small effort under the circumstances in Arizona -- as impressive as it gets."

Jack Del Rio's swagger: The confidence Del Rio expressed through the preseason seemed hollow when New Orleans ran out to a 24-10 lead over Oakland in the third quarter. The swagger seemed legitimate after the Raiders delivered on his two-point conversion bet in the final minute. This was just what the Raiders needed as an improving team still finding its way.

Matt Forte as a viable runner: Forte turns 31 this season, so it's understandable why Chicago moved on from him. But the numbers Forte produced in 13 games last season, while not great, were up slightly from 2014 on a per-game basis. His 96-yard debut with the Jets -- the ninth-best total against Cincy since 2012 -- was encouraging despite the game's outcome. There is some precedent as Forte enters his ninth season. Curtis Martin, Thomas Jones, Tiki Barber, Warrick Dunn, Frank Gore, Garrison Hearst and Fred Taylor all produced well in seasons nine through 11.

Minnesota winning without an offensive TD: It's not always going to be pretty for the Vikings as they figure out their quarterback situation, but their 25-16 victory at Tennessee showed Minnesota can win the way it won at times last season, with its defense. The Vikings held opponents to 20 or fewer points in 12 games last season. Teams with below-average quarterback play can still win those games. Need evidence? The victory Sunday left Shaun Hill with a 15-4 career record when the opponent fails to exceed 20 points (Teddy Bridgewater is 14-4 in those games).

Miami's toughness under Adam Gase: The Dolphins were on my underrated list heading into the season, and their 12-10 defeat at Seattle was affirming on that front. Ryan Tannehill did not wilt with the game on the line. He scored the go-ahead touchdown. This was an encouraging first game for Gase and for his rookie defensive coordinator, Vance Joseph. The Dolphins held Seattle to 4.5 yards per play, the seventh-best figure for a Miami defense since 2014 (33 games).

Mike Wallace as a deep threat for Baltimore: Wallace's 66-yard scoring reception in his Ravens debut was longer than any reception he made with Minnesota last season. Joe Flacco has the arm to make use of Wallace's speed. This can be a productive pairing.

The Chiefs' offensive potential: Kansas City expected its offense to perk up this season, thanks to upgrades along the offensive line. While it was shocking to see the Chiefs beat San Diego after falling behind 24-3 in the third quarter, I'm buying their improvement on that side of the ball.

Andrew Luck's return: The Colts still have their issues, but Luck's presence on their roster gives them a chance to win just about any game. His four touchdown passes and 385 yards passing helped Indy turn a 21-3 deficit into a 35-34 lead.


Surprises I'm selling

Wentz's impressive debut: Two weeks ago, Carson Wentz was a rookie backup finding his way. Sunday, he was completing 22 of 37 passes for 278 yards and two scores in the regular-season opener. The future does indeed look bright for the No. 2 overall draft pick, but there's little sense in reading anything into a positive performance against a team as undermanned as the Browns appear to be. It's also clear Wentz will need to learn to protect himself better than he has through the preseason and Sunday. Otherwise, the hits he is taking will soon threaten to make him a fixture in the training room.

The Bengals' offensive line issues: Andy Dalton took seven sacks against the Jets, the highest single-game total of his career. The figure was surprising after Dalton got the ball out of his hands an NFL-low 2.20 seconds after the snap on average last season. The protection problems Sunday likely had more to do with the Jets' dominant front than with any lasting issues along the Cincy line.

Seattle's offensive struggles: It has become an annual issue for the Seahawks. Their offense struggles early, especially along the line. Patience wears thin, but when the season ends, the Seahawks suddenly possess one of the NFL's most productive offenses. It shouldn't take half the season to get things figured out, but much could hinge on whether Russell Wilson's ankle injury is serious enough to affect him longer term. A Week 2 date with the Los Angeles Rams might not help. The Rams have played Seattle's offense as tough as anyone. History has shown it's never a good idea to write off this offense following a slow start.

 

[Skooby]

How Oklahoma will renew its playoff hopes with one win

Don't be surprised if Oklahoma gets a big win for the Big 12


It's the surprises -- the upsets, the unexpected conference champions, the dark horse Heisman Trophy contenders -- that enliven each college football season.

Each week, this column will attempt to identify those surprising results before they happen. For Week 3, the premise is simple -- the Big 12 will re-establish its elite Power 5 credentials when its best team wins the biggest matchup of the week.




Don't be surprised if Oklahoma defeats Ohio State


The Buckeyes are the first team to be favored over Oklahoma in Norman in 16 years.

At some level this is understandable. Ohio State has won its first two games by a combined score of 125-13 and currently ranks fifth nationally in both offensive yards per game (596.5) and yards allowed per game (216).

As impressive as those numbers are, a slew of factors point toward Oklahoma being the much better team in this matchup.


Incredible disparity in returning starting talent

Ohio State brought back a total of six offensive and defensive starters from last season's squad, a total that was the lowest in the nation. The Buckeyes lost their top running back (Ezekiel Elliott), three starting offensive linemen, all three starting wide receivers and their starting tight end. Ohio State saw equally daunting departure levels on defense, losing three starting defensive linemen, two starting linebackers, one starting cornerback and both starting safeties.

By contrast, Oklahoma returned a ton of talent, including a Heisman Trophy contender in quarterback Baker Mayfield, maybe the best running back tandem in the Big 12 in Joe Mixon and Samaje Perine, one of the best defensive tackles in the nation in Charles Walker, three All-Big 12 players in their secondary, and an All-Big 12 kicker/punter in Austin Seibert.

Oklahoma has a huge edge in the passing game

Mayfield ranks seventh among Power 5 quarterbacks in Total QBR (82.2). He also ranks fifth in Total QBR on vertical passes (99.6 on aerials thrown 11 or more yards downfield) and 11th in Total QBR on passing plays (88.1).

Those metrics could move even higher when Dede Westbrook and Geno Lewis start to return to their elite downfield receiving form. Westbrook and Lewis both have less than stellar yards per reception totals thus far this season (Westbrook 8.6, Lewis 8.7), but Westbrook had as many stretch vertical targets (passes thrown 20 or more yards downfield) as Sterling Shepard last season (18) and Lewis ranked seventh in the Big Ten in stretch vertical receptions in 2014 (seven).

The Sooners also have a scoring machine in Mark Andrews. He set an Oklahoma freshman record for receiving touchdowns last year (seven) and leads the team in touchdowns receptions so far this season (three).

Ohio State is nowhere near as good of shape in the passing game. Quarterback J.T. Barrett ranks 47th among Power 5 quarterbacks in overall Total QBR (50.8), 35th in Total QBR on passing plays (63.6) and 21st in vertical pass Total QBR (94.6).

The Buckeyes' aerial attack could be limited because the receiving corps losses weren't limited to starters. Ohio State returned only one pass catcher with 10 or more receptions from last season, that being H-back Curtis Samuel. Outside of Samuel, returning Buckeyes had only 12 receptions last year.

That pass-catching experience hasn't increased much this year, as Samuel is the team's leading receiver and only one other player has caught more than four passes.

Sooners have an edge in rushing the passer

Rushing the passer might be an area where these teams look equal at first glance, as the Sooners' defense ranks tied for 43rd in sack percentage (4.9 percent), a mark that is only slightly behind Ohio State's 5 percent sack rate (ranked tied for 41st).

Those numbers don't do justice for the pass rushing disparity between these teams. They have dramatically different totals in ESPN's pressure percentage metric (gauging how often a team registers a sack, puts the quarterback under duress or tallies a quarterback hit on a dropback) and quarterback contact percentage (which measures how often a defense makes contact with a quarterback on a dropback).

Oklahoma ranks 11th among Power 5 teams in pressure percentage (35.7 percent) and 18th in quarterback contact percentage (29.1 percent).

Ohio State's 18.8 percent pressure percentage mark ranks 52nd among Power 5 teams, yet it is actually much better than the Buckeyes' 8.9 percent quarterback contact percentage that ranks last among Power 5 teams.



Ohio State's dominant rush defense numbers are a mirage

The Buckeyes' defense ranks tied for ninth among Power 5 teams in percentage of rush plays of five or more yards allowed (26.2 percent), seventh in rush yards allowed per game (65), fifth in yards per rush allowed (2.0) and fourth in yards before contact per rush (0.5).

Before giving Ohio State a ton of credit for dominant performances, do consider that those numbers were racked up against Bowling Green, a club that ranks 123rd nationally in rush yards per game (78.5), and Tulsa, a team that ranks tied for 91st in rush yards per attempt (3.9). It is all but guaranteed that those numbers will decline dramatically when facing the Sooners powerful 1-2 rushing combination of Mixon and Perine.

Buckeyes will be hard pressed to rack up interceptions

Interceptions may be another area of perceived advantage for Ohio State. The Buckeyes have picked off seven passes, a total that is tied for the national lead in that category and leads to a No. 3 rank among Power 5 teams in interception percentage (9.2 percent).

That showing starts to lose its luster when noting that North Dakota's defense racked up just as many interceptions against Bowling Green as Ohio State did (three in both cases).

Things also start to look worse for Ohio State here when noting that Mayfield has yet to throw an interception this season and finished 17th among Power 5 quarterbacks in interception percentage last year (1.8 percent).

Bottom line

Most of Ohio State's starters have zero experience playing a road game, much less an away contest against upper-tier collegiate competition in one of the toughest places to play in college football.

Those factors are part of why ESPN's Football Power Index says Oklahoma has a 54.3 percent chance of winning this game. The Buckeyes will win more than their share of these types of contests eventually, but this week the Sooners will prevail in a game in which they actually should not be considered an underdog.

 

[Patrick Kane]

Top MLB prospects who have taken a step back in 2016

appreciate all you post for the board bruh @Skooby

 

[Skooby]

Top MLB prospects who have taken a step back in 2016

appreciate all you post for the board bruh @Skooby

Top MLB prospects who have taken a step back in 2016

Sometimes prospects don't work out. It could be because they're young, they get hurt, they don't make adjustments, or they just weren't as good as everyone thought to begin with. Here are a handful of prospects from my preseason top 100 who took a step backward in 2016. (Preseason rankings were from February.)

Brad Zimmer, OF
Cleveland Indians
Preseason rank: No. 21

Zimmer had no trouble with the low minors through 2015, but Double-A and Triple-A pitching exposed some real weaknesses in his game. Many left-handed-hitting prospects struggle to hit left-handed pitching, but Zimmer has been exceptionally poor in that area and isn't really improving. He struck out in one-third of his plate appearances against southpaws and hit .179/.343/.250 against them. His contact rates against right-handers aren't great either (29.5 percent strikeout rate this year), but he produces when he does make contact against them. Zimmer's swing can get long, and he tends to expand the zone too much when he's behind in the count, which happens often because he's patient and typically sees a lot of pitches. His power/speed upside is still here, but he needs a quantum leap in his approach for 2017.

Sean Newcomb, LHP
Atlanta Braves
Preseason rank: No. 30

I've brought this up before with Newcomb when fans asked why he wasn't ranked higher: He doesn't have even average control, and, given his arm action, which is loose and easy, I don't see an easy path to improvement. He has the three pitches to be an above-average big league starter, but walking a man every other inning -- 12 percent of total batters faced -- isn't going to cut it.

Robert Stephenson, RHP
Cincinnati Reds
Preseason rank: No. 31

Everything I said for Newcomb applies to Stephenson, although Stephenson's arm action isn't as easy as Newcomb's. This season is Stephenson's third straight in the minors with 134-137 innings and 70-74 walks, so he's nothing if not consistent. He has made four starts in the majors this year and traded some of those walks for homers, which is not a good strategy. He also still isn't throwing as many strikes as he needs to. As with Newcomb, there's an above-average starter upside, but no obvious way to get him from here to there.

Taylor Guerrieri, RHP
Tampa Bay Rays
Preseason ranking: No. 35

Guerrieri's velocity slipped this year, and he was often pitching in the 90-91 range with the accompanying loss of effectiveness in his off-speed stuff that you'd expect from that loss of arm speed. As a result, he struck out just 89 batters in 146 innings in Double-A (14.7 percent), although the one positive is that it was his highest workload in any calendar year since he was drafted in 2011.

Anthony Alford, OF
Toronto Blue Jays
Preseason rank: No. 52

Alford had a solid half-season for high-A Dunedin in 2015, so it seemed likely he'd spend most of 2016 in Double-A New Hampshire, but he never got there, not with a .236/.344/.378 composite line repeating the Florida State League and an injury he suffered in an on-field collision with a teammate. If you want a glimmer of hope, after the MLB All-Star break (and two days off for the FSL), Alford hit .292/.408/.509 in 44 games. But by that point he'd spent a year at the level and should have been dominating the league before then, so I don't want to read too much into that sample. His athleticism remains incredible, and there's still more power potential in his bat, but at 22, he doesn't have time for another step back in 2017.

Jorge Mateo, SS
New York Yankees
Preseason rank: No. 55

Getting suspended for two weeks for an unspecified violation of team rules was just the tip of the iceberg. Mateo hit .254/.306/.379 for high-A Tampa, and multiple scouts have told me they haven't seen Mateo make anywhere near enough hard contact. I also think he's behind newly acquired Gleyber Torres in defensive prowess at short; Mateo's much faster, but Torres has better hands and insincts. If Mateo does move to second, the pressure on his bat is even greater. I wonder if the Yankees will use him in a package to acquire pitching this winter, because they seem to have soured a little on his makeup and have clearly superior shortstop options elsewhere in the system.

Nick Williams, OF
Philadelphia Phillies
Preseason rank: No. 74

Williams was part of the return for Cole Hamels last July and hit well in hitter-friendly Reading after the trade, but his season for Triple-A Lehigh Valley was a disaster. He posted a .258/.287/.427 line, with just 18 unintentional walks in 526 total plate appearances, and he had some conflicts with his manager that resulted in a public benching. Williams is just 22, so he has time to recover, but he's also no longer a full-time center fielder, and there's no way he can project as a regular in a corner if you can't foresee at least a .320 OBP.

Tyler Kolek, RHP
Miami Marlins
Preseason rank: No. 97

Kolek's 2015 performance was disappointing, but there were still some reasons for optimism. The Marlins were working with him on repeating his delivery and developing fastball command, so he wasn't throwing as many off-speed pitches as he would have if he were focused on getting hitters out. He blew out his elbow this spring, however, and missed the entire season, losing development time that he sorely needed. Teams will probably always chase velocity in the draft, but Kolek, who was picked second overall in 2014, might represent a turning point for a certain type of high school player: huge and hard-throwing, yet underdeveloped as a pitcher.