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[Skooby]

McShay's top QB prospects for 2017

McShay's top QB prospects for 2017



College football is almost upon us, which means the 2017 NFL draft will be here before you know it. Those of us at Scouts Inc. -- Kevin Weidl, Steve Muench and I -- spent the summer scouring tape and ranking the top players at each position from a draft perspective.

Below is our preseason evaluation of the best quarterbacks in the 2017 draft.

Note: Underclassmen are marked with an asterisk.

1. Deshaun Watson, Clemson*
Grade: 88

A dynamic playmaker, Watson has the ability to both throw from the pocket and extend plays with his mobility. He played his best football down the stretch of 2015, throwing for 405 yards and four touchdowns in Clemson's 45-40 loss to Alabama in the College Football Playoff National Championship. Watson (6-foot-2, 210) lacks ideal size and will need to adjust to a pro-style system, but he has the tools to develop into a good starter in the NFL if developed and utilized properly.

2. Brad Kaaya, Miami*
Grade: 87

Kaaya is listed at 6-foot-4, 215 pounds, so he'll need to add some bulk and strength to his frame. But he can really excel in a precision/timing-based offense. Decisive with his full-field reads, Kaaya showed very good accuracy on short-to-intermediate throws and consistently made good pre-snap decisions.

3. C.J. Beathard, Iowa
Grade: 75

Beathard showed great toughness and leadership last season, as he played through injury and led the Hawkeyes to a Rose Bowl berth. He can drive the ball vertically with his quick, compact delivery and has the quickness to slide in the pocket to elude pressure. If Beathard continues to improve his footwork, he could be an early-round pick in 2017.

4. Luke Falk, Washington State*
Grade: 74

Playing in Mike Leach's passer-friendly spread offense, Falk will have to adjust to the NFL game whenever he turns pro. But he has an intriguing skill set, with the ability to go through full-field progressions. A good fit for a timing-based offense, Falk has very good anticipatory accuracy. He consistently leads receivers to spots between defenders in zone coverage.

5. Chad Kelly, Mississippi
Grade: 70

A highly competitive player, Kelly can create his own play at times, but he also gets himself into trouble by trying to do too much. Ole Miss' spread offense runs a lot of quick screens and features a lot of half-field reads, so Kelly still needs to prove that he can work through progressions. He's naturally accurate on short-to-intermediate throws, but he must become a better overall decision-maker and reign in his gun-slinger mentality.

6. Mitch Leidner, Minnesota
Grade: 62

Leidner does not have a big arm, but he can improve his ball velocity by getting his lower body more involved in his throws. He plays in a zone-read-heavy run offense and is a competitive runner with above-average vision, speed and toughness. Leidner hung tough in the pocket behind an offensive line that struggled to protect. He has elite intangibles.

7. Baker Mayfield, Oklahoma*
Grade: 60

A former walk-on and Texas Tech transfer, Mayfield exceeded expectations in his first season as the Sooners' starter. He has the football intelligence, accuracy and mobility to develop into one of the better backups in the NFL, but his frame could prevent him from becoming a full-time starter. Although Mayfield shows above-average decision-making as a passer, he takes a lot of punishment trying to extend plays.

8. Mason Rudolph, Oklahoma*
Grade: 59

A true junior, Rudolph has started just 15 career games, so his grade could change drastically. He has the frame and mental make-up that you look for, but his below average arm strength is concerning. The ball hangs in the air too long, and he throws a lot of floaters. A promising sign: Rudolph has led six second-half, come-from-behind victories in his career.

9. Gunner Kiel, Cincinnati
Grade: 56

Kiel has an ideal frame and good arm strength, and he can pound the strike zone on short-to-intermediate throws when on a roll, but his accuracy is pretty streaky. His biggest issue? Questionable decision-making. He takes too many chances and repeats mistakes. Kiel will need to make substantial strides in this area to improve his stock.

10. Seth Russell, Baylor
Grade: 50

Russell is coming off season-ending neck injury, and he has just eight career starts, but his frame and athletic ability give him some upside. His short-to-intermediate accuracy is erratic, which is an issue considering he plays in Baylor's passer-friendly scheme. Russell faces a steep learning curve transitioning to an NFL-style offense, but his nearly elite arm strength helps make him an intriguing prospect.

 

[Youhadasparkwhenustarted]

@Skooby
Ranking the NBA's best international players

Would be much appreciated. Pos rep pending breh.

 

[Skooby]

@Skooby
Ranking the NBA's best international players

Would be much appreciated. Pos rep pending breh.

Ranking Porzingis, Giannis and NBA's best international players



Let's project how we expect the NBA's top 20 international players to perform this coming NBA season, including those competing in the Olympics in Rio de Janeiro.


As we've seen, the international talent pool keeps getting deeper, and the impact on the NBA is growing. Here's a snapshot of this growth:

During the seven-year period ending with the 1995-96 season, 7.5 percent of all wins above replacement (WARP) came from international players. Last season, it was up to 27.3 percent, with 100 NBA players coming from countries other than the U.S.

These rankings are based on projected 2016-17 WARP from Kevin Pelton's SCHOENE projections system.





1. Rudy Gobert | France


Projected WARP: 11.69
Last year's rank: 8

Gobert wouldn't rank first if we leaned on overall real plus-minus (RPM), but his defensive RPM is the best on the board, as are his projected rebound and block percentages. On offense, he's efficient when he's not turning the ball over.

With just a little offensive growth, Gobert will justify this lofty ranking.





2. Nikola Jokic | Serbia


Projected WARP: 11.01
Last year's rank: 37

Jokic has a strong argument for No. 1, as his per-possession win percentage and overall RPM put him atop all international players. His defensive RPM is outranked only by that of Gobert, but his metrics show a fuller range of skills.

The only thing holding Jokic back is his projected minutes.





3. Kristaps Porzingis | Latvia


Projected WARP: 10.59
Last year's rank: 13

SCHOENE and RPM agree on where Porzingis is slotted here. The sky is the limit for him.

For this season, the only subjective concern is whether Porzingis will struggle for touches in a Knicks lineup shared with Derrick Rose and Carmelo Anthony. But he may be so good that, actually, the other guys will need to hunt for shot opportunities.





4. Al Horford | Dominican Republic


Projected WARP: 8.89
Last year's rank: 2

Horford ranks 18th in all-time WARP among international players. If his first season in Boston is typical in production, he'll move up four or five spots.

Horford is as well-rounded as any other player on the list, and it'll be interesting to see whether Celtics coach Brad Stevens can help his defensive metrics get back to elite levels.



5. Giannis Antetokounmpo | Greece


Projected WARP: 7.88
Last year's rank: 18

Antetokounmpo is moving up the rankings quickly. Because he is slated to be Milwaukee's primary playmaker from the get-go this season, it would be less than shocking to see him jet to the top of the list. He's a contender to hit that level and stay there for a long time.

It's not hard to imagine an annual argument about whether the Greek Freak or Porzingis is the best international player in the NBA.





6. Jonas Valanciunas | Lithuania


Projected WARP: 7.82
Last year's rank: 17

Until Valanciunas improves his defensive rebounding and overall defense, his impact will lag behind metrics that are otherwise solid, if not elite. Based on RPM, Valanciunas would rank well out of the top 20 (No. 43, actually), and it's time for his production to better serve the Raptors.





7. Pau Gasol | Spain


Projected WARP: 7.0
Last year's rank: 4

Gasol is another player whose RPM (ranked No. 23 overall) indicates less impact than his box score stats would otherwise show.

Now that he's in San Antonio, we will find out whether Gregg Popovich can coax a better defensive performance out of a center who ranks fifth in career WARP among international guys, behind only Dirk Nowitzki among active players.





8. Ricky Rubio | Spain


Projected WARP: 6.81
Last year's rank: 9

Rubio is our second straight Spaniard on this list, so it seems like a good time to point out that his countrymen collectively project to put up 23.8 WARP this season -- 0.3 more than second-place France among all nations (other than the U.S.) -- showing the quantity and quality of Spain's NBA players.

Rubio, an elite defensive point guard, is an RPM darling who ranks second behind Jokic among all players in these rankings.





9. Nikola Vucevic | Montenegro


Projected WARP: 6.55
Last year's rank: 10

Vucevic is one of the more skilled big men in the league, but his value is heavily tilted toward offense.

His defensive game may benefit greatly from the presence of new Orlando power forward Serge Ibaka, but if it doesn't, Vucevic could lose minutes on a deep roster to new Magic center Bismack Biyombo.





10. Nicolas Batum | France


Projected WARP: 6.55
Last year's rank: 7

Batum is a steady, balanced player who limits mistakes. Given their roster and Batum's new contract, the Hornets would stand to benefit from a more consistently assertive version of Batum on the offensive end.

But at this point of his career, we may just have to accept Batum for what he is.





11. Gorgui Dieng | Senegal


Projected WARP: 5.91
Last year's rank: 30

The Timberwolves have a lot of contenders for frontcourt minutes, but if Dieng can prove to Tom Thibodeau that he's the right guy to seal off the lane playing next to Karl-Anthony Towns, his rebounding and offensive efficiency will play well with the starting group.





12. Clint Capela | Switzerland


Projected WARP: 5.91
Last year's rank: 32

Ready or not, Capela will be asked to fill the full-time void left by Dwight Howard's departure for the Rockets. The 22-year-old has the tools as a defender and run-to-the-rim big man.

But he needs to develop some non-dunk skills on offense, and even with the league's new regulations on away-from-the-ball fouls, he still must be better than 38 percent from the charity stripe.





13. Marc Gasol | Spain


Projected WARP: 5.52
Last year's rank: 5

Because Gasol is coming off a major injury, his projection is weighed down because of playing-time concerns. However, his per-possession metrics also suggest a player edging toward the downward arc of an excellent career.

This is a big season for him and has a less encouraging forecast than that of older brother Pau.





14. Enes Kanter | Turkey


Projected WARP: 5.51
Last year's rank: 40

This is a huge season for Kanter, who in an ideal scenario would emerge as the Thunder's starting power forward. With Kevin Durant and Ibaka gone, OKC needs Kanter's firepower. It doesn't need him to be a sieve on defense (he was 70th among 71 centers in defensive RPM last year) or a black hole when he catches the ball down low.





15. Nikola Mirotic | Montenegro


Projected WARP: 5.45
Last year's rank: 29

Mirotic projects to be Chicago's starting power forward. That should be a good thing, as he's the Bulls' best hope for any semblance of floor spacing among a bizarre mix of mediocre-shooting ball dominators with contrasting skill sets.

But if Mirotic isn't hitting shots, such an arrangement marginalizes his skill set. The Bulls may have to opt for defense at his position.





16. Dennis Schroder | Germany


Projected WARP: 5.29
Last year's rank: 45

Schroder is one of three players to crack the top 20 despite a projected RPM that is below replacement level. However, now that he can count on being on the floor for big minutes more consistently, we'll have to see if his explosive game expands into more of a true floor-general kind of role.





17. Dirk Nowitzki | Germany


Projected WARP: 5.08
Last year's rank: 3

Sure, SCHOENE sees a dip for the 37-year-old Nowitzki, but then again, it's a forecasting system based on historical comparables, and there just haven't been many players who have retained so much value for as long as Dirk. In other words, he's kind of incomparable.

He ranks third behind Tim Duncan and Hakeem Olajuwon in career WARP among international players. He's 52 WARP behind Olajuwon, so this is likely where he will remain.





18. Jusuf Nurkic | Bosnia and Herzegovina


Projected WARP: 4.83
Last year's rank: 38

We'd be floating Nurkic as a breakout candidate if he weren't seemingly blocked by Jokic. Nurkic is one of three Nuggets to crack the international top 20, along with Jokic and Danilo Gallinari, and that doesn't even include still-developing point guard Emmanuel Mudiay or rookie Jamal Murray.





19. Danilo Gallinari | Italy


Projected WARP: 4.58
Last year's rank: 6

At this stage, Gallinari would probably be at his best on a team where he could play extended minutes at power forward, but this Nuggets roster doesn't seem to have much call for that. It'll happen in snippets.

Gallinari has been around long enough that with a decent season, his career WARP should crack the international top 30.





20. Serge Ibaka | Congo


Projected WARP: 4.05
Last year's rank: 11

Ibaka must prove that last season's downturn was a blip and not a trend. He'll do so on a new team, the Magic, which has lots to do in terms of sorting out roles, playing time and a style of play.

Still, Ibaka's abilities to face up on offense and protect the rim on defense should be a big part of any potential Orlando formula.





Notable omissions


21. Goran Dragic; 22. Tristan Thompson; 23. Marcin Gortat; 27. Andrew Bogut; 28. Manu Ginobili; 29. Patty Mills; 34. Luol Deng; 42. Andrew Wiggins; 57. Ben Simmons; 75. Emmanuel Mudiay; 81. Tony Parker.

 

[Frump]

 

[Skooby]

Mock Draft 1.0: Who do Lakers, Celtics get in loaded 2017 class?



The next draft class looks absolutely loaded. Check out where the next generation of stars is likely to land.


For NBA execs and scouts of teams such as the Sixers, Lakers and Celtics, it's never too early to start talking draft. And to help determine the most likely draft order, we have the ESPN Summer Forecast.

Remember: In a mock draft, we don't tell you where a player should go, but rather what each team in the draft will likely do with its pick. If you want a ranking of players, check out our first Big Board of the year here.



1. Philadelphia 76ers*

Markelle Fultz
Washington
Freshman
Guard

Will the Sixers win the No. 1 pick for a second straight year? It's hardly a sure thing, because they'll be significantly better than they were last season, and they'll have more "competition" for the No. 1 pick.

Regardless of where they land, look for them to consider grabbing the top point guard available in a draft loaded with potential franchise PGs.

Fultz was terrific all summer for Team USA's under-18 squad. Although he isn't currently No. 1 on our Big Board, many scouts think he might end up there by the end of the season. And he can play off the ball as a 2-guard, making him more compatible with point forward Ben Simmons.

Fultz has size, athleticism and one of the most well-rounded games you'll find in an 18-year-old guard.

Odds of winning lottery (if they finish with the worst record): 25 percent

Projected record: 20-62





2. Boston Celtics (via Nets)*

Harry Giles
Duke
Freshman
Forward

The Billy-King-for-Celtics-MVP campaign continues, as Boston gets richer once again thanks to the infamous 2013 trade with King, the Nets' former GM.

Last year, the Celtics landed the No. 3 pick, Jaylen Brown, with a pick that previously belonged to Brooklyn. This year, the Celtics have the right to swap picks with Brooklyn. Given the Nets' roster, it's looking very likely that this pick will land in the top three or four.

If the Celtics pick here, Giles would be a very strong candidate. He was the consensus No. 1 player in his class before he tore his ACL prior to his senior season. If he's back to his explosive self as a freshman at Duke, he's a steal at No. 2. Think the next Chris Webber.

Odds of winning lottery (via Nets): 19.9 percent

Projected record: 20-62





3. Los Angeles Lakers*

Josh Jackson
Kansas
Freshman
Forward

The trade for Steve Nash is still hanging over the Lakers franchise.

If the Lakers land in the top three, then they keep their pick, just as in 2016.

If they fall to fourth or lower in the lottery, and they must send the pick to the 76ers. If the Lakers finish with the fourth-worst record, the lottery odds indicate there is a 62.2 percent chance that they'll send the pick to Philly. Right now, our ESPN Forecast crew has them right on the bubble.

If they keep the pick, they must send their unprotected first-rounder to Philly in 2018.

We're assuming for now that they will keep the pick, and want Josh Jackson.

Jackson is actually ranked No. 1 on our Big Board right now. He is super explosive, has an unbelievable motor and competes on both ends of the floor. He's a jump shot away from being a superstar.

Odds of winning lottery: 15.6 percent

Projected record: 25-57





4. Phoenix Suns

Dennis Smith
NC State
Freshman
Guard

The Suns already have two starting point guards on their roster: Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight. But at least one of them could be gone by the trade deadline or draft day in 2017.

Smith missed his senior season because of a torn ACL but looked like a monster this summer at the Adidas Nations camp. He's the most athletic point guard in the draft.

Odds of winning lottery (via Nets): 11.9 percent

Projected record: 26-56





5. Sacramento Kings*
Frank Ntilikina
France
Age: 18
Guard

The Kings keep trying to find their way out of lottery purgatory, but our Forecast crew thinks it won't happen this year.

The last thing the Kings really need right now is more rookies. Still, a long-term answer at point guard is on the wish list, and Ntilikina, a pass-first PG from France, is the real deal.

Odds of winning lottery: 8.8 percent (if the Kings move ahead of Philadelphia in the lottery, and are within the top 10, they swap spots with the Sixers)

Projected record: 30-52





6. Denver Nuggets

Jonathan Isaac
FSU
Freshman
Forward

The Nuggets have stockpiled some serious backcourt talent in the past two drafts. A combination of Emmanuel Mudiay, Jamal Murray and Gary Harris looks like the backcourt of the future.

Isaac reminds some scouts of Brandon Ingram. He's a super tall, super skinny small forward who can shoot.

Odds of winning lottery: 6.3 percent

Projected record: 34-48




7. Orlando Magic

Lonzo Ball
UCLA
Freshman
Guard

Elfrid Payton might have the starting point guard job right now, but the team could always use long-term depth, and Ball could be a star with a rare combination of elite court vision and scoring ability.

He averaged a triple-double as a high school senior. His game is a bit more a subject of debate among scouts than that of the other point guards on the list, but if he hits, he'll hit big.

Odds of winning lottery: 4.3 percent

Projected record: 35-47





8. New Orleans Pelicans

Jayson Tatum
Duke
Freshman
Forward

The Pelicans are another team that will be deeply disappointed if they don't make the playoffs, but in a crowded West, someone has to miss out.

Tatum is a prototypical NBA small forward on just about every metric but one: He doesn't have a great 3-point shot yet. Most of his damage is done in the midrange. Given the Pelicans' current lineup, he would be a long-term upgrade at the 3.

Odds of winning lottery (via Knicks): 2.8 percent

Projected record: 35-47



9. Miami Heat

Ivan Rabb
Cal
Sophomore
Forward

The Heat took a significant step backward this summer, when they lost both Dwyane Wade and Luol Deng. If Chris Bosh can't play again, the Heat's decline could get steeper. But there is still some real talent at this pick.

Rabb had a very strong freshman season at Cal. If he can get stronger and improve his outside shooting, he would be a great fit in Miami, especially as a potential Bosh replacement.

Odds of winning lottery: 1.7 percent

Projected record: 36-46





10. Milwaukee Bucks

De'Aaron Fox
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard

Jason Kidd has been churning through point guards, and the current crop of Michael Carter-Williams and Tyler Ennis was on the trade block all summer. Although Matthew Dellavedova was a solid pick-up, he isn't the long-term answer.

Fox is often compared to a young John Wall. He's super quick and aggressive getting to the basket. If he can get stronger, cut down on turnovers and improve his jumper, he'd be a very interesting addition.

Odds of winning lottery: 1.1 percent

Projected record: 39-43

 

[Skooby]

11. Minnesota Timberwolves*

Terrance Ferguson
Australia
Age: 19
Guard

The Wolves have a wealth of young riches right now. So much so that I wouldn't be surprised if they beat their Forecast prediction and end up in the playoffs.

Shooting continues to be a long-term need for Minnesota, and Ferguson really put himself on the NBA radar with a terrific shooting performance in the Nike Hoop Summit.

But he decommitted from Arizona to play pro ball in Australia. I'm not sure how it will affect his draft stock, but the draft doesn't have a lot of great shooters, which should help him.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.8 percent

Projected record: 39-43





12. Chicago Bulls

Jarrett Allen
Texas
Freshman
Center

The Bulls replaced Joakim Noah with Robin Lopez this summer, but they could use more depth.

Allen needs to get stronger and tougher, but he is a good defender, moves well and impressed at the Nike Hoop Summit.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.7 percent

Projected record: 40-42





13. Dallas Mavericks

Marques Bolden
Duke
Freshman
Center

Andrew Bogut will hold down the middle for the Mavs this season. He's a terrific player when healthy, but he's 31 years old and he has had a long history of injuries.

Bolden has all the physical tools to be a dominant NBA center. If Mike Krzyzewski can get him to play hard at Duke this year, he should have a great future.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.6 percent

Projected record: 40-42





14. New York Knicks

Malik Monk
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard

The Knicks added some veteran help this summer in Joakim Noah, Derrick Rose and Courtney Lee. That should put them on the brink of the playoffs when teamed with Carmelo Anthony and Kristaps Porzingis.

Monk might be a bit undersized (6-foot-3, 185 pounds), but he's both an explosive athlete and a scorer. He could be a good long-term fit for the Knicks at the 2.

Odds of winning lottery: 0.5 percent

Projected record: 40-42





15. Washington Wizards

Edrice Adebayo
Kentucky
Freshman
Forward

Bam Adebayo already has the body of an NBA veteran. He's tough, physical and athletic.

His on-court decision-making and offensive game are raw, but on a team such as the Wizards, he'd have plenty of time to develop. You can't teach his sort of toughness and motor.

Projected record: 41-41





16. Houston Rockets

Edmond Sumner
Xavier
Sophomore
Guard

Five of the first nine players taken in this mock were point guards. After they're gone, there's a pretty big drop-off in PG talent.

Sumner was one of the stars of the Nike Skills Academy this summer. He has terrific size for a point guard and great quickness. Given the dearth of point guards on the Rockets' roster, Sumner might be a good get.

Projected record: 41-41





17. Charlotte Hornets

OG Anunoby
Indiana
Sophomore
Forward

Anunoby was a breakout star in the NCAA Tournament, and with his size, athleticism and ability to shoot 3s, he fits the type of 3-and-D player that scouts covet these days.

If he breaks out again this year, I'm not sure he'll still be around at No. 17.

Projected record: 43-39





18. Denver Nuggets (via Grizzlies)*
Lauri Markkanen
Arizona
Freshman
Forward

The Nuggets get this pick from the Grizzlies if it falls outside the top five, and this would be their second first-round pick.

They are loaded with some talented international players, and Markkanen would be another score. He's yet another 7-footer who can shoot 3s, rebound and score inside. He isn't an elite athlete, but the Nuggets have figured out as well as anyone how to utilize players with his skills.

Projected record: 43-39





19. Atlanta Hawks

Omer Yurtseven
NC State
Freshman
Center

Yurtseven scored 91 points and ripped down 28 boards in an under-18 game this summer. The guy can play.

If he gets cleared by the NCAA and has a great season for the Wolfpack, he could end up much higher on this list.

Projected record: 44-38





20. Oklahoma City Thunder

Carlton Bragg
Kansas
Sophomore
Forward

Many scouts walked away from Kansas' practices last season feeling that Bragg was the best NBA prospect on the squad.

He can play both the 3 and the 4 and can score from anywhere. He'll play a much bigger role on the team this year and could end up being a steal at this position in the draft.

Projected record: 44-38

 

[Skooby]

21. Indiana Pacers

Tyler Lydon
Syracuse
Sophomore
Forward

The Pacers actually dumped their 2016 first-rounder to land a power forward from the Nets, Thaddeus Young.

But Lydon is an intriguing prospect whose abilities to both shoot the ball and protect the rim will draw a lot of attention from scouts this year.

Projected record: 45-37





22. Utah Jazz
Rodions Kurucs
Latvia
Age: 18
Forward

Our Forecast team is very bullish on the Jazz improving this year.

Kurucs is a bit of a draft sleeper. His size, athleticism and shooting ability are all appealing, and he's a terrific athlete.

He doesn't get on the floor much at FC Barcelona, but the talent is clearly there.

Projected record: 45-37





23. Detroit Pistons

Grayson Allen
Duke
Junior
Guard

The Pistons took a major step forward last season and could use some scoring off the bench.

Allen provides shooting, athleticism and toughness. He's a polarizing player among scouts and can border on dirty play, but Van Gundy would love his mentality.

Projected record: 45-37





24. Portland Trail Blazers
Isaiah Hartenstein
Germany
Age: 18
Forward

Hartenstein can score from just about anywhere on the floor. He's still working on his feel for the game, and he can fall in love with his jumper, but he has a ton of skills that appeal to NBA scouts.

The Blazers are pretty deep at every position, which makes him a nice long-term play for them.

Projected record: 46-36





25. Toronto Raptors

Jonathan Jeanne
France
Age: 19
Forward/center

Raptors GM Masai Ujiri has never been shy about grabbing international talents, and at this point in the draft, getting a player such as Jeanne -- all 7-foot-2 of him -- seems like a good gamble.

He's skilled, versatile and fluid for a big man. He just needs to add a lot of strength.

Projected record: 51-31





26. Brooklyn Nets (via Celtics)

Miles Bridges
Michigan State
Freshman
Forward

The Nets lose 24 spots in the draft, thanks to that pick swap with Boston, but given the depth in this draft, it isn't the end of the world.

Bridges is one of the best athletes in the draft and has an NBA-ready body. He just needs to become a more consistent shooter.

Projected record: 51-31





27. Toronto Raptors (via Clippers)*
Kostja Mushidi
Belgium
Age: 18
Guard

This is the second first-rounder for the Raptors, and again, I wouldn't be surprised if they go international.

Mushidi is a raw prospect who needs to improve his shooting, but his athleticism and scoring acumen make him an attractive option.

Projected record: 52-30





28. Cleveland Cavaliers

Thomas Bryant
Indiana
Sophomore
Center

Bryant is huge, has great hands, rebounds, shoots a high percentage in the paint and can even step out and hit 3s. However, his slow feet are hurting him.

With no sure centers on the Cavaliers' roster (Tristan Thompson doesn't really count), Bryant could end up filling a long-term need.

Projected record: 57-25





29. San Antonio Spurs

Jaron Blossomgame
Clemson
Senior
Guard/forward

Blossomgame was one of the best 3-point shooters in college basketball last season, and he seriously flirted with the draft before deciding to finish his senior season at Clemson.

He has size and athleticism and can really stroke the ball. At this point, it's his age that is hurting his draft stock. The Spurs obviously have Danny Green to do a lot of that work, but with Manu Ginobili likely in his last season, Blossomgame could be a nice fit.

Projected record: 57-25





30. Utah Jazz (via Warriors)*

Jalen Brunson
Villanova
Sophomore
Guard

The Jazz are actually loaded at the point right now, with George Hill, Dante Exum, Shelvin Mack and Raul Neto.

Why add another? Because I've had several scouts swear to me that he is a great fit for Utah, with his unselfish but effective style.

Projected record: 67-15

 

[Jplaya2023]

Projected W-L record for all 30 teams

 

[Jplaya2023]

Top 30 NBA free agents: Ranking 2017's best

 

[GreatestLaker]

Which Kobe was better: No. 8 or No. 24?

Ranking 10 best sophomores this NBA season

 

[Skooby]

Projected W-L record for all 30 teams

Projected 2016-17 records and standings for every NBA team




How many games will the Golden State Warriors win after adding Kevin Durant to the core of a team that went 73-9 last season? Which teams might jump from the lottery to the playoffs, and who might they replace?

To help answer these questions, here's an early look at 2016-17 NBA projections using ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM).


RPM was developed by Jeremias Engelmann and Steve Ilardi to estimate a player's on-court impact on team performance, measured in net point differential per 100 offensive and defensive possessions. RPM takes into account teammates, opponents and additional factors. When used along with playing time projections, it's proved to be a very accurate predictive tool overall.

Last season, these projections correctly forecast that the Portland Trail Blazers would be more competitive than expected, the Boston Celtics would maintain their second-half success from the year before and the Milwaukee Bucks would fall out of the playoffs. (They also missed on other teams, including the Toronto Raptors emerging as a top threat to the Cleveland Cavaliers in the Eastern Conference and the Houston Rockets limping along near .500.) Two years ago, RPM foresaw the rise of the Golden State Warriors.

Like last season, I've put together projected playing time based on a formula that estimates games missed based on the number missed over the past three seasons (adjusted for any offseason injuries/suspensions) and my own guesses at how rotations will shake out.

Most veteran players are rated using the multiyear, predictive version of RPM, adjusted for the typical aging curve. Newcomers to the league and players who played too little for an RPM rating are rated using their projected offensive and defensive rating from my SCHOENE projection system, which incorporates translated performance in the NCAA and professional leagues besides the NBA.

Let's take a look at the results.





Western Conference


1. Golden State Warriors
Projected wins: 66.8 (Summer Forecast: 67-15)

Within the context of the conservative nature of win projections, which tend to be regressed heavily to the mean, a 67-win projection is remarkable. The Warriors' projection is two wins higher than the next best in the seven years I've gone back to do projections using this method: 64.9 for the 2010-11 Miami Heat, who actually won just 58 games because of the time it took their version of the Big Three to build chemistry on the court.

2. San Antonio Spurs
Projected wins: 54.5 (Summer Forecast: 57-25)

It's a huge step downward to second place in the West. With Tim Duncan's retirement and the aging of other core players, the Spurs will be hard-pressed to stay with Golden State in the regular season as they did last season. But RPM still has them comfortably second in the West.

3. Utah Jazz
Projected wins: 47.6 (Summer Forecast: 45-37)

This might seem like a crazy leap for a team that didn't make the playoffs last year, but remember: The Jazz actually had the fifth-best point differential in the West (plus-1.8 PPG). Ordinarily, that would translate into 46 wins, and that was despite injuries (including Dante Exum missing the entire season) and before Utah loaded up with veterans this offseason. The Jazz should be considered the favorites to win the Northwest Division.

4. L.A. Clippers
Projected wins: 46.3 (Summer Forecast: 52-30)

Given the Clippers won 53 games last year without Blake Griffin for much of the season, a seven-win drop would be a surprise. But RPM sees several key players on the wrong side of the aging curve.

5. Houston Rockets
Projected wins: 45.8 (Summer Forecast: 41-41)

RPM projects the Rockets to be a top-five offense next year, but they'll still struggle to reach 45 wins if their defense is worse than an optimistic projection of 16th in the league.

6. Oklahoma City Thunder
Projected wins: 45.6 (Summer Forecast: 44-38)

Even without Durant, RPM forecasts the Thunder in the mix for home-court advantage in the West thanks to star point guard Russell Westbrook and a deep cast of young role players.

7. Portland Trail Blazers
Projected wins: 44.5 (Summer Forecast: 46-36)

After reaching the second round of the playoffs and adding Festus Ezeli and Evan Turner this offseason, the Blazers hope to take the next step in their development. RPM sees them as about the same team as 2015-16, when they won 44 games but finished fifth in a weaker West.

8. Denver Nuggets
Projected wins: 40.4 (Summer Forecast: 34-48)

Quietly, the Nuggets have assembled an intriguing group of young talent (led by RPM favorite Nikola Jokic, projected for plus-5.0 points per 100 possessions) with a few veterans in tow. Even with Danilo Gallinari projected for just 50 games, internal development could be enough to push Denver into surprising playoff contention.

9. Memphis Grizzlies
Projected wins: 39.4 (Summer Forecast: 43-39)

Yes, the Grizzlies strengthened their starting lineup by signing Chandler Parsons, but their bench is incredibly thin and several starters (including Parsons) are major injury risks. Gulp.

10. Sacramento Kings
Projected wins: 37.7 (Summer Forecast: 30-52)

The Kings have one of the biggest discrepancies of any team between their projection in ESPN's summer forecast (30 wins, 13th in the West) and by RPM, which sees Sacramento deep in average talent around DeMarcus Cousins.

11. Minnesota Timberwolves
Projected wins: 37.1 (Summer Forecast: 39-43)

Remember, RPM projections don't factor in coaching, and the arrival of Tom Thibodeau makes the Timberwolves overwhelmingly likely to outperform their projected ranking of 27th in defensive rating.

12. New Orleans Pelicans
Projected wins: 37.0 (Summer Forecast: 35-47)

New Orleans is deeper after shopping for midtier free agents this summer, but RPM projects just three players on the roster to be better than league average: Anthony Davis, Jrue Holiday and newcomer Solomon Hill.

13. Dallas Mavericks
Projected wins: 34.3 (Summer Forecast: 40-42)

Might this be the year that coach Rick Carlisle, veteran big man Dirk Nowitzki and a cast of newcomers can't get the Mavericks to the playoffs? RPM says yes, since swapping Parsons (plus-1.3) for Harrison Barnes (minus-0.7) grades as a major downgrade.

14. Phoenix Suns
Projected wins: 29.2 (Summer Forecast: 26-56)

The Suns figure to be a bit more competitive with the return of RPM favorite Eric Bledsoe (plus-2.2) but are still too young to compete in the West.

15. L.A. Lakers
Projected wins: 24.3 (Summer Forecast: 25-57)

Despite their offseason additions of No. 2 pick Brandon Ingram and veterans Luol Deng and Timofey Mozgov, RPM has the Lakers with the league's fewest projected wins.

 

[Skooby]

Eastern Conference


1. Cleveland Cavaliers
Projected wins: 52.1 (Summer Forecast: 57-25)

While the Cavaliers are still solidly tops in the East, their projection is down from last year's 57 wins because RPM takes a dim view of Kyrie Irving's defense and considers Matthew Dellavedova (plus-1.2 projection) a considerable loss as Irving's backup. Note that this projection assumes J.R. Smith ultimately re-signs in Cleveland.

2. Boston Celtics
Projected wins: 49.8 (Summer Forecast: 51-31)

Last year, RPM nailed the Celtics' 48-win finish, though the Raptors jumped ahead of Boston to take second in the East. Now, RPM sees the Celtics taking a modest step forward with the addition of Al Horford.

3. Toronto Raptors
Projected wins: 48.8 (Summer Forecast: 51-31)

After getting career years from guards DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, the Raptors are likely to regress to the pack this year, but fans can take solace in Toronto having outperformed its RPM projection each of the past three seasons.

4. Detroit Pistons
Projected wins: 47.5 (Summer Forecast: 45-37)

While most of the East's middle class took a step backward this offseason, the Pistons should improve by virtue of upgrading at backup point guard and center, and RPM sees them as the third team in a tier with Boston and Toronto.

5. Washington Wizards
Projected wins: 41.4 (Summer Forecast: 41-41)

There's a big gap between the top four in the East and a pack of teams projected fifth through about 11th. The Wizards lead that group after going 18-13 after last year's All-Star break.

6. Charlotte Hornets
Projected wins: 41.0 (Summer Forecast: 43-39)

Though the return of Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (plus-2.0) should be a boost, RPM doesn't like the Hornets' new backup backcourt of Ramon Sessions (minus-2.4) and Marco Belinelli (minus-3.7).

7. Milwaukee Bucks
Projected wins: 40.9 (Summer Forecast: 39-43)

The Bucks have oscillated between wildly under- and overperforming projections. If that trend holds, this should be the year for exceeding expectations, and RPM views both Dellavedova and Mirza Teletovic (minus-0.6) as upgrades.

8. Indiana Pacers
Projected wins: 38.9 (Summer Forecast: 45-37)

By virtue of having one of the East's top players in Paul George and a promising youngster in Myles Turner, the Pacers are getting contender buzz in the East. RPM is not so optimistic, viewing the swap of George Hill (plus-0.8) for Jeff Teague (minus-0.6) as a downgrade.

9. Atlanta Hawks
Projected wins: 38.6 (Summer Forecast: 44-38)

RPM has had a tough time forecasting the Hawks, pegging Atlanta for near-.500 records each of the past two seasons, when the Hawks have actually finished second and fourth in the East. This time, Atlanta may have to beat its projection to make the playoffs.

10. Miami Heat
Projected wins: 38.3 (Summer Forecast: 36-46)

Even with Chris Bosh in the lineup, the Heat may have a tough time making the playoffs after losing Luol Deng, Joe Johnson and Dwyane Wade. Without Bosh, Miami's projection drops to 35.2 wins and 12th in the East.

11. Chicago Bulls
Projected wins: 37.8 (Summer Forecast: 40-42)

RPM doesn't view adding Wade (minus-1.3) and Rajon Rondo (minus-1.4) as upgrades for Chicago, and that's before even taking the fit issues they create into account.

12. Orlando Magic
Projected wins: 36.2 (Summer Forecast: 35-47)

The Magic spent big on free agents D.J. Augustin (minus-1.6) and Jeff Green (minus-2.1), neither of whom RPM sees helping Orlando much on the court this season.

13. New York Knicks
Projected wins: 34.7 (Summer Forecast: 40-42)

The Knicks would certainly be disappointed if they improved just three wins after spending freely this summer, but RPM rates Derrick Rose (minus-2.3) as a replacement-level contributor at this point and is skeptical of New York's weak bench.

14. Brooklyn Nets
Projected wins: 28.8 (Summer Forecast: 20-62)

A full season from second-year wing Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (plus-1.2), along with improved play at point guard with Jeremy Lin (minus-0.3), should make the Nets a bit more competitive this season.

15. Philadelphia 76ers
Projected wins: 24.5 (Summer Forecast: 20-62)

Even with conservative projections for rookies Ben Simmons (minus-1.9) and Joel Embiid (minus-1.4), the Sixers figure to take a massive step forward this season despite still being projected for the East's worst record.

 

[Skooby]

Top 30 NBA free agents: Ranking 2017's best

Ranking Durant, Curry, CP3 and 2017's star-studded free agents


The summer of 2017 promises another loaded class of free agents, and while Golden State Warriors stars Stephen Curry and Kevin Durant aren't likely to leave their superteam, other All-Stars might be on the move.

Who will the top 30 free agents be?

Let's take an early look at who's going to be on the market in 2017 with the help of multiyear projections that use my SCHOENE projection system to forecast how free agents will perform in 2017-18 and 2018-19. I also factored in ESPN's real plus-minus to come up with a comprehensive estimate of how many wins above replacement player (WARP) players will provide over that span.

Here are the top 30 players by this method, including potential free agents with 2017-18 player options and fourth-year players who will become restricted free agents if they don't sign extensions before Oct. 31.




1. Stephen Curry

Golden State Warriors
Guard
Age: 28
Unrestricted



Projected 2-Year WARP: 34.7 | 2015-16 RPM: 8.5 | 2015-16 WARP: 23.8



Curry has been one of the league's most underpaid players. He signed a four-year, $44 million extension in 2012, before making his All-Star debut. That will change in a big way next summer, when Curry will be the most coveted player on the market if he decides to entertain other offers.





2. Chris Paul

L.A. Clippers
Guard
Age: 31
Player option



Projected 2-Year WARP: 27.2 | 2015-16 RPM: 8.6 | 2015-16 WARP: 16.7



This figures to be the last big contract for Paul, who will turn 32 next May. Concerns about Paul's left knee, on which he had arthroscopic surgery in 2010, have abated, and Paul has managed to stay productive into his 30s. Based on the development of similar players, SCHOENE doesn't see that likely to change any time soon.





3. Kevin Durant

Golden State Warriors
Forward
Age: 27
Player option



Projected 2-Year WARP: 24.3 | 2015-16 RPM: 6.5 | 2015-16 WARP: 17.7



Realistically, if Curry is the No. 1 free agent on the market, his new teammate, Durant, is 1A. Durant's projection lags a bit behind Paul's because his RPM was weaker last season. However, Durant is younger and figures to have more years of prime production ahead of him, presuming no recurrence of the Jones fracture that marred his 2014-15 campaign.





4. Paul Millsap

Atlanta Hawks
Forward
Age: 31
Player option



Projected 2-Year WARP: 23.7 | 2015-16 RPM: 5.2 | 2015-16 WARP: 14.2



Millsap wisely got a player option on the third year of the contract he re-signed with the Hawks last summer. As a result, he's in position to cash in on the cap increase next summer. Millsap is coming off the best season of his career at age 31, and his skills figure to hold strong into his mid-30s.





5. Kyle Lowry

Toronto Raptors
Guard
Age: 30
Player option



Projected 2-Year WARP: 23.7 | 2015-16 RPM: 6.8 | 2015-16 WARP: 15.8



Quietly, Lowry finished in the NBA's top 10 in both RPM (seventh) and WARP (eighth) last season, powering the Raptors to the East's second-best record. He's 30, so it's not realistic to expect Lowry to keep playing quite that well, but he could be a difference-maker at the start of a new contract.





6. Rudy Gobert

Utah Jazz
Center
Age: 24
Restricted



Projected 2-Year WARP: 18.6 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.3 | 2015-16 WARP: 7.0



Gobert is the top-ranked restricted free agent who could hit the market next summer. He might not get extended this fall because his cap hold would be a tiny $5.3 million under the current rules. (That could change under a new collective bargaining agreement.) So, like the Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards did this summer with Andre Drummond and Bradley Beal, the Jazz could hold off on an extension and utilize cap space before going over the cap to re-sign Gobert.





7. Giannis Antetokounmpo

Milwaukee Bucks
Forward
Age: 21
Restricted



Projected 2-Year WARP: 18.0 | 2015-16 RPM: 1.1 | 2015-16 WARP: 8.8



Given that Antetokounmpo is the youngest established NBA player likely to be on the market next summer, only looking at the first two years of a new contract for him probably understates his value. Antetokounmpo could sign the longest possible deal (five seasons) and still return to free agency at 27. Like Gobert, Antetokounmpo would have a relatively small cap hold ($7.5 million), which might be reason to wait on an extension.





8. Gordon Hayward

Utah Jazz
Forward
Age: 26
Player option



Projected 2-Year WARP: 16.3 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.9 | 2015-16 WARP: 8.1



During the summer of 2014, Hayward signed an offer sheet with Charlotte that the Jazz chose to match. That came at the cost of Hayward getting a 2017-18 player option, giving him the chance to hit the market next summer as an unrestricted free agent. Re-signing Hayward will be crucial to Utah's development into a challenger in the West.





9. Blake Griffin

L.A. Clippers
Forward
Age: 27
Player option



Projected 2-Year WARP: 16.1 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.1 | 2015-16 WARP: 3.9



When he's on the court, Griffin is a more productive player than some of the younger talents ahead of him in these rankings. However, the 62 games Griffin has missed the past two seasons help limit his projected playing time, and total value, going forward.





10. Victor Oladipo

Oklahoma City Thunder
Guard
Age: 24
Restricted



Projected 2-Year WARP: 14.0 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.6 | 2015-16 WARP: 5.6



Still just 24, Oladipo emerged as a two-way RPM standout last season, ranking among the league's top 10 shooting guards. He has the chance to enhance his value with a strong performance on a bigger stage this season in Oklahoma City.





11. Nikola Mirotic

Chicago Bulls
Forward
Age: 25
Restricted



Projected 2-Year WARP: 12.3 | 2015-16 RPM: 1.6 | 2015-16 WARP: 5.4



It took Mirotic a year and a half to translate his accurate shooting from the FIBA 3-point line to the longer NBA version. After the 2016 All-Star break, Mirotic shot 44.5 percent from beyond the arc and averaged 14.1 points per game. While that's unlikely to continue, if Mirotic merely maintains last year's overall 39.0 percent 3-point shooting, he'll be a valuable stretch-4. Because Mirotic did not sign a rookie-scale contract coming over from Spain, he is not eligible for an extension and will be a restricted free agent.





12. Otto Porter Jr.

Washington Wizards
Forward
Age: 23
Restricted



Projected 2-Year WARP: 11.6 | 2015-16 RPM: 1.5 | 2015-16 WARP: 4.5



In his first year as a starter, Porter ranked 14th among small forwards in RPM. Just 23, he can establish himself as an average starter or better with another solid campaign. An extension is realistic for Porter because the Wizards are close to capped out next summer.





13. Jared Sullinger

Toronto Raptors
Center
Age: 24
Unrestricted



Projected 2-Year WARP: 10.8 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.8 | 2015-16 WARP: 5.2



Sullinger's impressive statistical projections didn't generate much interest this summer, and he settled for a one-year deal at the non-taxpayer midlevel exception to join the Raptors. Sullinger will try to parlay a better postseason into a more lucrative long-term deal next summer.

 

[Skooby]

14. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope

Detroit Pistons
Guard
Age: 23
Restricted



Projected 2-Year WARP: 10.7 | 2015-16 RPM: 1.4 | 2015-16 WARP: 1.2



Caldwell-Pope has yet to become a consistent 3-point threat, shooting just 30.9 percent last season, but his defense already makes him a valuable player. He ranked 10th among shooting guards in RPM. If Caldwell-Pope can become even a league-average shooter, he'll be a quality starter, and he has plenty of time. Detroit has little cap space and is likely to extend Caldwell-Pope.





15. Patrick Patterson

Toronto Raptors
Forward
Age: 27
Unrestricted



Projected 2-Year WARP: 10.6 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.0 | 2015-16 WARP: 2.1



Patterson's floor spacing was a big reason the Raptors tended to play their best basketball with the second unit on the floor last season. He made a career-high 106 3-pointers, and unlike many stretch big men Patterson isn't a liability on defense.





16. Jrue Holiday

New Orleans Pelicans
Guard
Age: 26
Unrestricted



Projected 2-Year WARP: 10.5 | 2015-16 RPM: 1.6 | 2015-16 WARP: 6.3



Likewise, the Pelicans were at their best with Holiday on the court in 2015-16, getting outscored by just 0.3 points per 100 possessions, according to NBA.com/Stats. When Holiday sat, they got crushed by 7.4 points per 100 possessions. While his history of tibia stress injuries is a concern, Holiday, 26, will be one of the younger unrestricted free agents on the market and should cash in.





17. Gorgui Dieng

Minnesota Timberwolves
Center
Age: 26
Restricted



Projected 2-Year WARP: 10.4 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.6 | 2015-16 WARP: 6.2



In fact, Holiday is a few months younger than Dieng, who's just coming to the end of his rookie contract. Dieng is yet another potential restricted free agent with a small cap hold ($5.9 million), making an extension unlikely. That's for the best, because the Timberwolves need to make sure he's the right fit next to Karl-Anthony Towns long term.





18. Cody Zeller

Charlotte Hornets
Center
Age: 23
Restricted



Projected 2-Year WARP: 10.2 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.0 | 2015-16 WARP: 2.8



An RPM favorite, Zeller demonstrated last year he can protect the rim well enough to anchor a top-10 defense as a starting center. In that role, his mobility and range are pluses. The Hornets are unlikely to have cap space, and Zeller's cap hold would be $13.3 million, so expect extension talks.





19. Dennis Schroder

Atlanta Hawks
Guard
Age: 22
Restricted



Projected 2-Year WARP: 10.1 | 2015-16 RPM: 0.6 | 2015-16 WARP: 2.7



After trading Jeff Teague and making Schroder the starter, the Hawks are probably committed to him as their point guard of the future. That's going to be costly, however, and Schroder could command a near-max deal from a point guard-needy team.





20. Steven Adams

Oklahoma City Thunder
Center
Age: 23
Restricted



Projected 2-Year WARP: 10.0 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.4 | 2015-16 WARP: 3.4



Because Adams has a low usage rate and blocks few shots, his WARP was limited last season. RPM already views him as an average starting center, and Adams looked every bit the part in the playoffs at age 22 (he turned 23 last month). I'd expect him to get the max or something close to it.





21. Kelly Olynyk

Boston Celtics
Forward
Age: 25
Restricted



Projected 2-Year WARP: 10.0 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.8 | 2015-16 WARP: 3.8



The second-most accurate 3-point shooting 7-footer (minimum 400 attempts) in NBA history behind a certain German who plays for the Dallas Mavericks, per Basketball-Reference.com, Olynyk shot 40.5 percent from beyond the arc last year. He has a chance to emerge as a starter next to Al Horford this season before hitting restricted free agency.





22. Serge Ibaka

Orlando Magic
Forward
Age: 26
Unrestricted



Projected 2-Year WARP: 9.2 | 2015-16 RPM: 0.9 | 2015-16 WARP: 2.4



Though he's not yet 27, Ibaka's production has been trending in the wrong direction the past two seasons. After a trade to the Magic, 2016-17 will tell us whether his limited role in the Thunder's offense is to blame or if Ibaka's best years are truly behind him.





23. Patty Mills

San Antonio Spurs
Guard
Age: 28
Unrestricted



Projected 2-Year WARP: 8.8 | 2015-16 RPM: 1.7 | 2015-16 WARP: 4.4



Long a favorite of advanced stats, Mills had to settle for a bargain three-year, $13 million contract in the summer of 2014 because he needed shoulder surgery after the NBA Finals. Fresh off an impressive Olympics, Mills might be able to command a better deal if he starts eating into the playing time of the aging Tony Parker.





24. Greg Monroe

Milwaukee Bucks
Center
Age: 26
Player option



Projected 2-Year WARP: 8.2 | 2015-16 RPM: 0.7 | 2015-16 WARP: 9.8



After several teams battled for the right to pay him the max last summer, a competition won by the Bucks, Monroe might struggle to generate that sort of interest if he opts out of the third year of his contract. Monroe's role as scapegoat for Milwaukee's regression is somewhat unfair, but it does reflect that his skills don't translate to every situation. Fortunately for Monroe, there are few quality centers on the unrestricted market.





25. Danilo Gallinari

Denver Nuggets
Forward
Age: 28
Player option



Projected 2-Year WARP: 8.1 | 2015-16 RPM: 1.7 | 2015-16 WARP: 5.5



Injuries are a big reason Gallinari's projection is surprisingly modest; he's pegged to miss an average of 32 games per year based on his past lost playing time. When he's on the court, Gallinari is consistently productive, and I'd expect him to command max money.





26. Pau Gasol

San Antonio Spurs
Center
Age: 36
Player option



Projected 2-Year WARP: 7.9 | 2015-16 RPM: 3.7 | 2015-16 WARP: 10.8



Well into his 30s, Gasol shows no sign of decline in his ability to score efficiently. However, his limited rim protection makes Gasol a tough fit for many teams. There might not be many teams willing and able to pay him more than his $16.2 million player option.





27. Mason Plumlee

Portland Trail Blazers
Center
Age: 26
Restricted



Projected 2-Year WARP: 7.3 | 2015-16 RPM: 2.4 | 2015-16 WARP: 5.0



Plumlee is in an interesting spot after the Blazers spent lavishly to retain their own free agents and add Festus Ezeli and Evan Turner this summer. Already in the luxury tax for 2017-18, Portland might not want to pay market rate for Plumlee if either Ezeli or Meyers Leonard proves capable of replacing him in the center rotation.





28. George Hill

Utah Jazz
Guard
Age: 30
Unrestricted



Projected 2-Year WARP: 7.1 | 2015-16 RPM: 1.0 | 2015-16 WARP: 3.9



Hill leads a trio of point guards who have been on the Indiana Pacers who round out the list. Of those three, including replacement Jeff Teague, Hill rated the best by RPM last season thanks to his defense. At the same time, Hill is the oldest of the group, and a large four-year deal for him could be risky.





29. Darren Collison

Sacramento Kings
Guard
Age: 29
Unrestricted



Projected 2-Year WARP: 6.5 | 2015-16 RPM: minus-0.7 | 2015-16 WARP: 2.9



After coming off the bench behind Rajon Rondo last year, Collison will move back into a starting job just in time for his contract year. He has consistently averaged around 16 points and five to six assists per 36 minutes with above-average efficiency.





30. Jeff Teague

Indiana Pacers
Guard
Age: 28
Unrestricted



Projected 2-Year WARP: 6.3 | 2015-16 RPM: minus-0.7 | 2015-16 WARP: 4.6



While Teague, the new Pacers point guard, is slightly younger than his predecessors who rate ahead of him, similar players have tended to decline in their late 20s, so Teague is projected for similar decline early in his next contract.

 

[Skooby]

Which Kobe was better: No. 8 or No. 24?

Which Kobe was the better baller: No. 8 or No. 24?

No. 8 or No. 24?

As the city of Los Angeles prepares to celebrate Kobe Bryant Day on, fittingly, Aug. 24, it's worth revisiting the question of the two numbers Bryant wore during his career.

The Los Angeles Lakers could head off any debate about which of the two numbers should hang in the rafters by retiring both, something GM Mitch Kupchak told season-ticket holders was a possibility in January.

But if it's only one, which one should it be? The question of No. 8 versus No. 24 is a fascinating one because of the way it splits Bryant's 20 NBA seasons in half.

So, with the help of advanced statistics, let's consider the tale of the tape on Kobe No. 8 and Kobe No. 24.






The jersey change
Bryant entered the league wearing the No. 8. While this has occasionally been credited as a tribute to Mike D'Antoni, who wore No. 8 as a legendary import in the Italian League while Bryant was growing up in Italy, Bryant himself has never used this explanation. Instead, he apparently came up with No. 8 because it represented the sum of the numbers on his jersey (143) at the Adidas ABCD camp for prep stars.

As No. 8, Bryant won his first three championships alongside Shaquille O'Neal. Some of Bryant's greatest individual exploits also came while wearing his original jersey number, including his 81-point game against the Toronto Raptors in January 2006. Still, by that season -- which ended in a loss in the first round of the playoffs to the D'Antoni-coached Phoenix Suns -- Bryant wanted a new start.

In April 2006, ESPN's Darren Rovell reported that Bryant would wear No. 24 -- which he wore early in his prep career before shifting to 33, his father's number -- the following season. And it was as No. 24 that Bryant led the Lakers back to three consecutive NBA Finals, winning a pair of championships.

Ultimately, despite the injuries that limited him the past three seasons, Bryant finished with remarkably similar stats wearing both jerseys.



No. 8 vs. No. 24
G Minutes Points Rebounds Assists Steals Blocks
No. 8 707 25,239 16,866 3,634 3,148 1,059 431
No. 24 639 23,398 16,777 3,413 3,158 885 209


Splitting Bryant's career leaves two 10-season spans that both merit jersey retirement in their own right. He'd rank 88th in NBA history in scoring as No. 8, behind Bob Cousy, and 93rd as No. 24, ahead of Joe Dumars and James Worthy. But if you could have only one of the careers, which would it be?


The case for 24: Superior scoring
Bryant scored just 109 fewer points over his last 10 seasons, and that's remarkable given he missed so much time with injuries the past three years. Bryant played nearly 70 more games wearing No. 8 than he did as No. 24, but his per-minute scoring average was better during the second half of his career (25.8 per 36 minutes) than during the first half (24.1).


That Bryant was more prolific as No. 24 shouldn't be particularly surprising. Although his greatest scoring season came in 2005-06 -- his last season as No. 8 -- for most of the first half of his career, he shared the ball with O'Neal. And during his first two seasons out of high school, Bryant also was behind older players such as Nick Van Exel and Eddie Jones in the Lakers' pecking order.

What is notable is Bryant's ability to maintain his efficiency as a go-to guy. Despite increasing his usage rate from 30.7 percent of the Lakers' plays as No. 8 to 33.0 percent as No. 24, Bryant had virtually identical true shooting percentages either way (.552 during the first half of his career and .548 during the second half).

As his athleticism waned, much like Michael Jordan's did, Bryant was able to compensate by honing his midrange game. He famously worked with Hakeem Olajuwon to develop his post-up skills and incorporated shots from other players, such as Dirk Nowitzki's one-legged fadeaway.

Thanks to the effort, Bryant hit 45.5 percent of shots taken between 3 feet and 16 feet while wearing No. 24, according to Basketball-Reference.com. While detailed play-by-play data isn't available for Bryant's whole career, we know he shot 42.2 percent on such shots between 2000-01 and 2005-06 while wearing No. 8. So even though Bryant got fewer high-percentage looks at the hoop during the second half of his career, his overall 2-point percentage actually improved from 47.7 percent to 48.1 percent.


The case for 8: Better defense, durability
While Kobe worked as hard as possible to overcome the effects of aging, he couldn't completely defy them. That was more evident at the defensive end than it was on offense. The younger, more athletic Bryant racked up blocks nearly twice as often (1.2 percent of opponents' 2-point attempts as compared to 0.7 percent) and created more steals (2.2 percent of opponents' plays as compared to 1.9 percent).

While Bryant remained a fixture on the NBA All-Defensive Team through 2011-12, when he was 33, such selections reflected his reputation more than his true accomplishments as a defender. The older Kobe was better freelancing as a help defender off a poor shooter like Rajon Rondo than locking up an elite wing scorer.

More than anything else, though, the difference between No. 8 and No. 24 was durability. Bryant missed 81 games during his first 10 regular seasons, only slightly more than he missed in 2013-14 alone (76) between coming back from a ruptured Achilles tendon suffered in April 2013 and a lateral tibial plateau fracture that occurred six games into his return. Bryant missed 165 games during the second half of his career.



The verdict: No. 8 outshines No. 24
Let's take a look at Kobe's value as measured by my wins above replacement player metric season by season over the course of his career.


With a few exceptions, Bryant's career follows a relatively typical trajectory: improving performance early in his career, a peak from ages 24 through 29 and gradual decline after that (accelerated in his case by the Achilles injury, suffered late in a bounce-back season).

To answer the question of which Kobe was best, it makes more sense to rank each jersey number in WARP from best to worst and compare those ratings.


Now the young Bryant's edge becomes clear. Not only did two of his three best seasons in terms of WARP come wearing the No. 8, but Bryant was also far better at the beginning of his career than post-Achilles injury.

It's understandable that Bryant might have fonder memories of his days wearing No. 24. The second half of his career yielded more individual honors, including his only regular-season MVP trophy and both of his Finals MVP awards.

With the benefit of hindsight, however, we can see that Bryant was probably more deserving of the MVP award while wearing No. 8 in 2005-06 than while wearing No. 24 in 2007-08, when he actually got the hardware.

Also, three of Kobe's five rings, which support his claim to basketball immortality, were won while wearing No. 8. Yes, Bryant got second billing behind O'Neal during the Lakers' three-peat, but those teams would not have won championships and joined the greatest teams in NBA history without Kobe's crucial contributions. Those years in No. 8 were the foundation of Bryant's reputation as a player who could win championships.

The Lakers might choose to pay homage to Bryant by retiring No. 24 or by retiring both numbers. But if they could choose only one Bryant to play for them, they should choose No. 8.