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The top 16 'Geez, who was THAT?' players in college football
It's an annual tradition at this point: While studying tape to evaluate prospects for the upcoming draft, a handful of players who are not part of the draft class catch your eye.
It sometimes takes discipline to not continue to watch them -- that's how much certain non-eligible players leap off the tape. This past year was no different. Here's a list of the top scene-stealers to watch in 2016.
Florida linebacker Jarrad Davis
Davis jumped off the screen to the point that he was a distraction trying to study the 2016 draft class. He is an explosive athlete who has sideline-to-sideline range and an internal GPS for the football. Although he needs to add bulk and improve his point-of-attack skills, Davis is a name we'll hear a lot next fall as a prospect. "Space" linebackers such as Davis are coveted in today's NFL.
Although former coach Will Muschamp struggled to figure out the offense during his tenure, he left the shelves stocked with defensive talent for Jim McElwain. After having five defensive players drafted in April, including two first-round picks, the Gators should have another strong class for 2017. The class is headlined by Davis but also includes cornerback Jalen Tabor, safety Marcus Maye and defensive end Bryan Cox.
Penn State running back Saquon Barkley
Ohio State had plenty of prospects to study, as they had six defensive players drafted in 2016, including three top-20 picks. But it was Barkley who stole the show when watching the Buckeyes' defense against Penn State, as he gashed them for 194 yards on 26 carries. The freshman's combination of power, agility and burst for a 220-pound runner was impressive, but his competitiveness and strength while finishing runs really jumped off the tape.
There will be no shortage of talent returning at running back in the college football landscape in 2016. LSU's Leonard Fournette and Florida State's Dalvin Cook get a lot of national attention -- and for good reason. Fans, however, need to keep an out for Barkley, who set the school's record for rushing by a freshman with 1,076 yards in 2015.
Arkansas defensive end Deatrich Wise Jr.
Wise came on strong at midseason and tallied eight sacks over his final eight games. He initially popped off the tape against Alabama and continued to flash against Dak Prescott (Mississippi State) and LSU. He is a long-levered and disruptive pass-rusher who has active hands, quality bend and the ability to convert speed to power. Wise should be on scouts' radar next year, as he has the measureables and skill set to potentially develop into a top-40 type of prospect.
Texas cornerback Davante Davis
Davis will be a true sophomore to keep an eye out for in 2016. He showed up while studying former teammate and defensive tackle Hassan Ridgeway and also while watching Oklahoma wide receiver Sterling Shepard. Listed at 6-foot-2 and 191 pounds, Davis is a long, athletic and rangy cornerback who is a physical and reliable tackler. Most impressive, though, were the instincts and awareness he showed as a first-year player.
Davis and fellow teammate Malik Jefferson, another extremely talented young player, are part of coach Charlie Strong's first full recruiting class at Texas and should have even bigger impacts in their second seasons, as Strong continues to try to replenish that talent in Austin and get the Longhorns back in postseason play for the first time under his watch.
Alabama linebacker Ryan Anderson
Anderson is a prime example of just how strong the Tide's front was in 2015. A player who would likely have started for 95 percent of programs across the country, Anderson was on the field for just 15-to-20 snaps per game. But the reserve made the most of his reps, and his tape against Michigan State in the playoff really shined. From standing up offensive tackle Jack Conklin and anchoring against the run to pressuring quarterback Connor Cook and consistently giving second effort, Anderson had his fingerprints on the group's dominating performance despite his limited snaps.
Although there are returning players along that front seven who might be drafted ahead of Anderson in 2017 -- defensive end Jonathan Allen, who might be the best interior pass-rusher we studied last fall, pass-rusher Tim Williams and insider linebacker Reuben Foster -- he is an under-the-radar prospect who could have a breakout year as he increases to more of a full-time role.
Other notables
USC RB Ronald Jones II
Michigan State DT Malik McDowell
Clemson DT Christian Wilkins
Ohio State ILB Raekwon McMillan
Stanford DT Solomon Thomas
Auburn CB Carlton Davis
Vanderbilt OLB Zach Cunningham
North Carolina WR Mack Hollins
Oklahoma CB Jordan Thomas
Kansas State DE Jordan Willis
Miami (Fla.) RB Mark Walton
LeBron's 2-4 Finals record is one of his greatest achievements
Does Michael Jordan's legacy need help? Apparently so, if we look how eager folks are to shred LeBron James for playing on the losing side in four NBA Finals.
James has been nothing short of incredible in these playoffs, reaching the NBA Finals yet again after dispatching the Toronto Raptors.
Consider this fact: James just put up a 34.5 player efficiency rating in the conference finals while no one else surpassed the 26.0 mark over the same period. Not Steph. Not Klay. Not KD. Not Russ.
Furthermore, James is dunking twice as often as he did last postseason. And the Cavs' offense has been virtually unstoppable, scoring a sizzling 116.2 points per 100 possessions in the playoffs.
However, over the next couple of weeks, there's a good chance you'll see some version of the following Finals note plastered in big-fonted memes:
James is just 2-4 for his career in the NBA Finals. What a bum! More like Le-Fraud, am I right?!
Enoooooough. Blaming James for his 2-4 Finals record is relying on the silliest stat around, and the latest desperate attempt to protect Jordan's sacred legacy.
Why is 2-4 so misleading?
Let's count the reasons.
1. Six straight Finals is basically unheard of
Seeing James at the Finals has gotten so common that it's hard to imagine the championship round without him. James has played his way into the Finals for a sixth straight season, something that hasn't been done by a player since Bill Russell pulled off the feat in 1966.
For James, it's even more remarkable once you consider that Russell's Boston Celtics needed to win only one series to reach the Finals from 1961 to 1965; James and others in this modern era needed to win three just to get there.
Getting to the Finals six straight times is an amazing accomplishment for James and his teams, even if he didn't win the title every time. The 2-4 stat is a clever sleight of hand. It turns a success into a failure, no different than walking up to a college graduate and tearing up the diploma because it didn't have summa cum laude written on it.
By citing James' "losing" record of 2-4, the implication is that we'd somehow prefer James to lose earlier in the playoffs and thereby not tarnish his precious Finals record.
Another common barb thrown at James' record is that he's always gotten an easy road to the Finals. One pretty big reason for that: Of the nine 60-win teams from the East since James entered the league, James has been on three of them. Also, the last two 60-win East teams James faced in the playoffs? He beat both.
Last season, the Cavs swept the 60-win Hawks and his Heat in 2011 needed just five games to send the 62-win Bulls -- led by MVP Derrick Rose -- packing. (And let's not forget that in 2006 a 21-year-old James took a Cavs squad that started Flip Murray and Larry Hughes to a Game 7 against the 64-18 Pistons.)
The stat you don't often hear is that James has reached the Finals in seven of his 11 postseasons, which is astounding to think about. At just 31 years old, James has already reached the championship round more times than Oscar Robertson, Moses Malone, George Gervin, Alex English, Bob Lanier, Dan Issel, Charles Barkley, Reggie Miller, Dominique Wilkins, Steve Nash and Yao Ming ... combined. Yes, combined.
If you want to know how hard it is to get to the Finals even once, just ask those Hall of Famers.
2. Michael Jordan "failed" earlier
Critics of James will point to 2-4 as both an indictment on his career and a nod of praise to Michael Jordan and his sterling 6-0 record. By slighting James, it props up Jordan's legacy as the G. O. A. T. (Greatest of All-Time).
But a fact that's rarely brought up is that James has missed the Finals just four times in his postseason career. By comparison, Jordan reached the Finals in just six of his 13 postseasons. Framing it another way, James is 7-4 in getting to the championship round while Jordan was 6-7.
What a loser that Jordan guy was! Missed the Finals more times than he made it!
(Sidenote: It's true that James didn't make the playoffs in the first two seasons in the NBA. If we really want to blame a teenager for not going deep into the NBA playoffs, we can, while noting that Jordan didn't even arrive in the NBA until age 21. James still has reached the Finals more often already -- seven in 13 overall seasons -- than Jordan did his entire 15-season career.)
Of course, citing Jordan's 6-7 finals-appearance record is incredibly unfair to Jordan, just like 2-4 is to James. But it points to the contradiction at hand. Would we rather James lose in the Eastern Conference finals or the first round instead of competing for the title? No, we should credit James for getting so far so many times.
After all, James has never lost in the first round of the playoffs either (something Jordan suffered three times). And James has never been swept in the first round either (something Jordan endured twice).
Looking at the Finals, Jordan didn't ever have to face a 65-win team, while James has faced two in the last two seasons alone. Furthermore, Jordan enjoyed homecourt advantage in five of his six appearances, a luxury that James has only had in two of his six Finals trips, underscoring that James has overachieved in getting to the Finals with subpar rosters.
Looking at the whole picture, James has a career record of 127-65 (.661) in the playoffs, while Jordan was 119-60 (.665). Quite the difference, huh?
And yet, people scream and shout that James is a championship bust.
3. Championship-or-bust mentality is lunacy
Yes, winning the championship is the ultimate team goal. But it is not the only goal and it certainly isn't the most important individual achievement. Winning the MVP, for instance, is far more reflective of a player's accomplishments than touting a championship-or-bust stat that is so dependent on supporting cast, coaching and plain ol' good luck.
By the way, while we're talking about individual achievements, have you seen who leads the all-time leaderboard for win shares in the postseason?
That would be James, who just passed MJ last week. James has accumulated 40.1 playoff win shares while Jordan generated 39.8 with his play, according to Basketball-Reference.com's all-in-one metric.
Playoff win shares
Win Shares
LeBron James 40.1
Michael Jordan 39.8
Tim Duncan 37.8
Kareem Abdul-Jabbar 35.6
Magic Johnson 32.6
Source: Basketball-Reference.com
The 2-4 discussion is inherently problematic because James is not 2-4, his teams were. If we graded individual careers solely based on the number of rings on fingers than Jordan is no better than Robert Horry (seven championships), Frank Ramsey (seven championships) or Tom "Satch" Sanders (eight championships).
Going by the ringzzz logic, Beno Udrih has a better NBA résumé than Jerry West, the guy who is quite literally the logo of the league. Citing titles as an individual litmus test is a logical fallacy that ESPN's Pablo S. Torre calls thetyranny of "Big Playoff."
This is all not to say James is better than Jordan. That is not a discussion we're having today, not when James is 31 years old and likely just a little past the halfway point in his career.
But hoisting up the 2-4 record as some sort of indictment on James' legacy is just as foolish as it is ignorant. And it'll be more foolish if he goes to 2-5 after facing a legendary 73-9 Warriors squad.
To me, Jordan is the greatest player of all time. That doesn't mean we have to tear James and everyone else down. Especially not for their achievements.
Mock Draft 8.0: New lottery picks, big shakeup in top 10
How will the NBA draft go, less than three weeks from now?
Team workouts with prospects are in full swing and we are getting a better feel for how draft boards are shaping up, leading to a brand new top 10 in Mock Draft 8.0.
Remember, this mock draft doesn't say where a player should go, but rather what each team in the first round would likely do with its pick.
Here's our latest full first-round mock draft, based on our discussions with NBA scouts and general managers.
1. Philadelphia 76ers
Ben Simmons
LSU
Freshman
Forward
It'll be a few days until the Sixers bring in the top prospects, but unless something really changes in those workouts, Simmons is the strong front-runner to go No. 1.
Simmons is the Sixers' best shot at adding a real superstar to the roster, though he's not a perfect fit. However, Sixers coach Brett Brown will be willing to build the offense around Simmons and work to get the best effort out of Simmons.
And as Marc Stein and I reported last week, the 76ers aren't standing still. They'd love to land at least one guard in the draft as well and are dangling Jahlil Okafor and Nerlens Noel as trade chips.
Video: Prospect breakdown
2. Los Angeles Lakers
Brandon Ingram
Duke
Freshman
Forward
Ingram's ability to stretch the floor and defend multiple players on defense should fit great with L.A.'s current roster.
While his lack of bulk and strength may make the game rougher on him for now, he would give the Lakers a major talent boost.
Video: Prospect breakdown
3. Boston Celtics (via Nets)
Kris Dunn
Providence
Junior
Guard
The Celtics are looking at everything.
Trading the pick seems like the most probable route if they can fetch a young veteran in return. If they keep the pick, I think the field may be narrowing down to Dunn, Jamal Murray and a dark horse in Marquese Chriss.
Murray and Chriss fit obvious needs for shooting. Dunn seems like less of a fit until you realize that he would be the best pure point guard on the roster -- right away.
Marcus Smart can play off the ball. Isaiah Thomas, an All-Star, can be dealt. Having an elite distributor, especially one that defends like Dunn does, would be very appealing.
It's too early to know for sure which way the Celtics will go on draft night, but if the draft were today, I think Dunn would get the nod.
Video: Prospect breakdown
4. Phoenix Suns
Marquese Chriss
Washington
Freshman
Forward
The Suns need a stretch-4 in the worst way and there are three legitimate options in this range: Chriss, Dragan Bender and Henry Ellenson. Don't be surprised if they choose Chriss.
While Bender and Ellenson may bring a little more to the table right away, Chriss is a much better athlete and has an even higher ceiling. Can he reach it? His athleticism, rim protection and shooting range could make this a gamble worth taking.
Video: Prospect breakdown
5. Minnesota Timberwolves
Jamal Murray
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard
Murray could go as high as No. 3. He's seriously in the mix with the Celtics. If he slides past them, the Wolves will have to take a long look.
His shooting ability would fill a major need and his ability to play multiple positions is a plus. Buddy Hield, Bender and Ellenson are also real options (as are Dunn and Chriss if they are still on the board), but the Wolves would probably be making a mistake if they pass on Murray.
Video: Prospect breakdown
6. New Orleans Pelicans
Dragan Bender
Croatia
Age: 18
Forward/center
The Pelicans need backcourt help and it might be hard to pass on Hield if he he's still on the board.
But word on the street is that they are pretty big Bender fans and see him fitting nicely with Anthony Davis in the future -- especially with their fear of losing Ryan Anderson this summer to free agency.
Video: Prospect breakdown
7. Denver Nuggets
Jaylen Brown
Cal
Freshman
Forward
The Nuggets don't have obvious needs, which allows them to take the best player available. They could go several ways here, but I'd see this as a landing place for Brown.
The Nuggets aren't afraid to reach for upside and Brown, at least physically, has a ton of it. If he can learn to shoot then No. 7 is too low. But that's a big if right now.
Video: Prospect breakdown
8. Sacramento Kings
Buddy Hield
Oklahoma
Senior
Guard
The Kings will be ecstatic if Hield is still on the board. Both GM Vlade Divac and owner Vivek Ranadive love him.
He would be a major upgrade at the 2, giving their backcourt some much needed shooting. And he's ready to play right now -- a must for a Kings team that is playoffs-or-bust.
Video: Prospect breakdown
9. Toronto Raptors (via Knicks)
Henry Ellenson
Marquette
Freshman
Forward/center
I think the Raptors have been secretly hoping Chriss falls to them at No. 9 for a while. As he starts blowing up in workouts, that feels more and more like a dream.
Power forward is their biggest need and the choice will likely come down to Ellenson, Skal Labissiere, Deyonta Davis and Domantas Sabonis. You can make an argument for all four.
Labissiere is the best shooter and has the highest ceiling (but also the lowest floor). Ellenson gives you a lot more game, but without the same elite athleticism.
Video: Prospect breakdown
10. Milwaukee Bucks
Dejounte Murray
Washington
Freshman
Guard
The Bucks desperately need shooting, but there really isn't a 2-guard in this range that makes sense for them.
Jason Kidd is also looking for a point guard. Michael Carter-Williams just hasn't cut it for him and Murray, while similar in some ways (big guard without a jump shot), has so much NBA appeal that it's going to be hard for Milwaukee to pass on him.
Kidd needs a franchise PG badly and, if he hits his ceiling, Murray has that sort of upside.
Another dark horse for this pick? Thon Maker. GM John Hammond hit a home run by taking relative unknown Giannis Antetokounmpo. Could he swing for the fences again?
Video: Prospect breakdown
11. Orlando Magic
Skal Labissiere
Kentucky
Freshman
Forward/center
Labissiere would give the Magic something they've lacked for a while: a rim protector. He is a terrific shot-blocker and has the ability to stretch the floor.
He would be perfect next to Nikola Vucevic, but the Magic would have to be patient with him.
Video: Prospect breakdown
12. Utah Jazz
Jakob Poeltl
Utah
Sophomore
Center
The Jazz don't have any immediate needs, and whichever player lands here will struggle to find minutes on a loaded roster.
If Poeltl drops to No. 12, it will be hard for Utah to pass. He would add even more depth to the Jazz front line and allow Derrick Favors to remain parked at the 4.
Video: Prospect breakdown
13. Phoenix Suns (via Wizards)
Wade Baldwin IV
Vanderbilt
Sophomore
Guard
With both Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight on the roster, you'd think point guard wouldn't be a need. But the Suns still need backcourt depth, and Baldwin's versatility would be a major plus on a team that values positional fluidity.
Video: Prospect breakdown
14. Chicago Bulls
Deyonta Davis
Michigan State
Freshman
Forward
The Bulls could go in a number of directions. They need help pretty much everywhere.
Davis is the best athlete and shot blocker on the board. He even has an emerging perimeter game. He's raw, but in the long run he might be their best option.
Video: Prospect breakdown
15. Denver Nuggets (via Rockets)
Furkan Korkmaz
Turkey
Age: 18
Shooting guard
I don't see the Nuggets keeping all three of their picks. If they do, you can expect that at least one of them -- and possibly two -- will be draft-and-stash prospects.
Korkmaz is a major talent who is probably ready to play now, but could also use another year in Turkey. His shooting ability is especially attractive to teams.
Video: Prospect breakdown
16. Boston Celtics (via Mavericks)
Ante Zizic
Croatia
Age: 19
Center
The Celtics are also unlikely to keep all of their picks. You can expect Danny Ainge to shop these selections. If they do end up keeping them, don't be surprised to see Boston gamble on a few projects who can develop over time.
Zizic's elite motor, offensive rebounding and production in Croatia make him intriguing.
17. Memphis Grizzlies
Ivica Zubac
Bosnia
Age: 19
Center
At the center position, teams are split on the Zizic-Zubac question. While most lean Zizic because of toughness and rebounding ability, Zubac's offensive game is attractive to teams looking for big men who can still score in the paint.
The Grizzlies, of course, have Marc Gasol to do much of that. But as he continues to get older, having a player like Zubac to back him up is key.
Henry Ellenson
Marquette
Freshman
Forward/center
I think the Raptors have been secretly hoping Chriss falls to them at No. 9 for a while. As he starts blowing up in workouts, that feels more and more like a dream.
Power forward is their biggest need and the choice will likely come down to Ellenson, Skal Labissiere, Deyonta Davis and Domantas Sabonis. You can make an argument for all four.
Labissiere is the best shooter and has the highest ceiling (but also the lowest floor). Ellenson gives you a lot more game, but without the same elite athleticism.
Video: Prospect breakdown
10. Milwaukee Bucks
Dejounte Murray
Washington
Freshman
Guard
The Bucks desperately need shooting, but there really isn't a 2-guard in this range that makes sense for them.
Jason Kidd is also looking for a point guard. Michael Carter-Williams just hasn't cut it for him and Murray, while similar in some ways (big guard without a jump shot), has so much NBA appeal that it's going to be hard for Milwaukee to pass on him.
Kidd needs a franchise PG badly and, if he hits his ceiling, Murray has that sort of upside.
Another dark horse for this pick? Thon Maker. GM John Hammond hit a home run by taking relative unknown Giannis Antetokounmpo. Could he swing for the fences again?
Video: Prospect breakdown
11. Orlando Magic
Skal Labissiere
Kentucky
Freshman
Forward/center
Labissiere would give the Magic something they've lacked for a while: a rim protector. He is a terrific shot-blocker and has the ability to stretch the floor.
He would be perfect next to Nikola Vucevic, but the Magic would have to be patient with him.
Video: Prospect breakdown
12. Utah Jazz
Jakob Poeltl
Utah
Sophomore
Center
The Jazz don't have any immediate needs, and whichever player lands here will struggle to find minutes on a loaded roster.
If Poeltl drops to No. 12, it will be hard for Utah to pass. He would add even more depth to the Jazz front line and allow Derrick Favors to remain parked at the 4.
Video: Prospect breakdown
13. Phoenix Suns (via Wizards)
Wade Baldwin IV
Vanderbilt
Sophomore
Guard
With both Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight on the roster, you'd think point guard wouldn't be a need. But the Suns still need backcourt depth, and Baldwin's versatility would be a major plus on a team that values positional fluidity.
Video: Prospect breakdown
14. Chicago Bulls
Deyonta Davis
Michigan State
Freshman
Forward
The Bulls could go in a number of directions. They need help pretty much everywhere.
Davis is the best athlete and shot blocker on the board. He even has an emerging perimeter game. He's raw, but in the long run he might be their best option.
Video: Prospect breakdown
15. Denver Nuggets (via Rockets)
Furkan Korkmaz
Turkey
Age: 18
Shooting guard
I don't see the Nuggets keeping all three of their picks. If they do, you can expect that at least one of them -- and possibly two -- will be draft-and-stash prospects.
Korkmaz is a major talent who is probably ready to play now, but could also use another year in Turkey. His shooting ability is especially attractive to teams.
Video: Prospect breakdown
16. Boston Celtics (via Mavericks)
Ante Zizic
Croatia
Age: 19
Center
The Celtics are also unlikely to keep all of their picks. You can expect Danny Ainge to shop these selections. If they do end up keeping them, don't be surprised to see Boston gamble on a few projects who can develop over time.
Zizic's elite motor, offensive rebounding and production in Croatia make him intriguing.
17. Memphis Grizzlies
Ivica Zubac
Bosnia
Age: 19
Center
At the center position, teams are split on the Zizic-Zubac question. While most lean Zizic because of toughness and rebounding ability, Zubac's offensive game is attractive to teams looking for big men who can still score in the paint.
The Grizzlies, of course, have Marc Gasol to do much of that. But as he continues to get older, having a player like Zubac to back him up is key.
18. Detroit Pistons
Denzel Valentine
Michigan State
Senior
Forward/guard
The Pistons could use another great passer. While Valentine isn't a point guard, he sees the floor really well, can shoot the 3 and brings a lot of intangibles to the table.
His ability to play right now would be a bonus for Detroit.
Video: Prospect breakdown
19. Denver Nuggets (via Blazers)
Thon Maker
Australia
Age: 19
Forward
This would be the third pick for the Nuggets, and will likely be a draft-and-stash pick if they keep it. But international players aren't the only draft-and-stash candidates these days.
D-League players are options as well and Maker has impressed enough in early workouts to make him a strong consideration here. With the right development, he could become a monster on the court. If the Nuggets come away from the draft with Brown, Korkmaz and Maker, they will have added three major upside talents to their roster.
Video: Prospect breakdown
20. Indiana Pacers
Domantas Sabonis
Gonzaga
Sophomore
Forward
Larry Bird wanted Paul George to play as a small-ball power forward all season -- something George himself wasn't a huge fan of doing. With Myles Turner coming along at center, drafting Sabonis could free George up to go back to the 3 full-time.
Sabonis is one of the most NBA-ready prospects in the draft. He's tough and smart and he rebounds like crazy. In terms of what Bird likes, he's a Bird-type player all the way.
Video: Prospect breakdown
21. Atlanta Hawks
Malachi Richardson
Syracuse
Freshman
Guard
Richardson would be a major upside play for the Hawks.
With a 7-foot wingspan, the ability to shoot the 3 and a quick first step that gets him to the rim, he could become a backcourt upgrade eventually for Atlanta.
Video: Prospect breakdown
22. Charlotte Hornets
Malik Beasley
Florida State
Freshman
Guard
The Hornets, like so many teams in the league, are in need of shooters. Nic Batum and Courtney Lee are both free agents.
Even if they re-sign one, Beasley would be a real steal for them. His shooting ability and athleticism would make him a perfect fit in Charlotte.
Video: Prospect breakdown
23. Boston Celtics
Cheick Diallo
Kansas
Freshman
Forward
Diallo didn't really do much at Kansas last season, but that won't stop a team like the Celtics from grabbing him -- especially after his strong play at the NBA combine.
He is tough and athletic, and he might have the best motor in the draft. He's raw. But had he stayed in school another season, he probably would have been a lottery pick next year. That makes him good value here and potentially a starter on the Maine Red Claws.
24. Philadelphia 76ers (via Heat)
Tyler Ulis
Kentucky
Sophomore
Guard
The Sixers need point guards in the worst way. Drafting Ben Simmons would give them such a playmaker -- albeit a 6-foot-10, 240-pound playmaker. But they'll still need more help.
Physically, Ulis is the exact opposite of Simmons, but he would bring the toughness and basketball IQ this young Philly team really needs. He competes and he wins.
Video: Prospect breakdown
25. Los Angeles Clippers
DeAndre Bembry
St. Joseph's
Junior
Forward
Bembry is getting looks as high as the Pistons at No. 18. His feel for the game, court vision and athleticism are all intriguing.
He isn't a great shooter, which hurts his stock, but after Simmons he might be the best passer in this draft.
Video: Prospect breakdown
26. Philadelphia 76ers (via Thunder)
Patrick McCaw
UNLV
Sophomore
Guard
The 76ers need wings, and, after McCaw's performance at the combine, I think he's got a shot at going here.
He's not only a good athlete who can defend multiple positions, but he's also a terrific passer and an emerging shooter.
27. Toronto Raptors
Guerschon Yabusele
France
Age: 19
Forward
Yabusele is built like a brick house. He's one of the strongest players in the draft, but he's also skilled. He moves well despite his size and has a shot that goes all the way out to the 3-point line.
The Raptors love toughness and Yabusele brings that. And given the fact that this is the Raptors' second first-round pick, a draft-and-stash type player like Yabusele makes some sense.
Denzel Valentine
Michigan State
Senior
Forward/guard
The Pistons could use another great passer. While Valentine isn't a point guard, he sees the floor really well, can shoot the 3 and brings a lot of intangibles to the table.
His ability to play right now would be a bonus for Detroit.
Video: Prospect breakdown
19. Denver Nuggets (via Blazers)
Thon Maker
Australia
Age: 19
Forward
This would be the third pick for the Nuggets, and will likely be a draft-and-stash pick if they keep it. But international players aren't the only draft-and-stash candidates these days.
D-League players are options as well and Maker has impressed enough in early workouts to make him a strong consideration here. With the right development, he could become a monster on the court. If the Nuggets come away from the draft with Brown, Korkmaz and Maker, they will have added three major upside talents to their roster.
Video: Prospect breakdown
20. Indiana Pacers
Domantas Sabonis
Gonzaga
Sophomore
Forward
Larry Bird wanted Paul George to play as a small-ball power forward all season -- something George himself wasn't a huge fan of doing. With Myles Turner coming along at center, drafting Sabonis could free George up to go back to the 3 full-time.
Sabonis is one of the most NBA-ready prospects in the draft. He's tough and smart and he rebounds like crazy. In terms of what Bird likes, he's a Bird-type player all the way.
Video: Prospect breakdown
21. Atlanta Hawks
Malachi Richardson
Syracuse
Freshman
Guard
Richardson would be a major upside play for the Hawks.
With a 7-foot wingspan, the ability to shoot the 3 and a quick first step that gets him to the rim, he could become a backcourt upgrade eventually for Atlanta.
Video: Prospect breakdown
22. Charlotte Hornets
Malik Beasley
Florida State
Freshman
Guard
The Hornets, like so many teams in the league, are in need of shooters. Nic Batum and Courtney Lee are both free agents.
Even if they re-sign one, Beasley would be a real steal for them. His shooting ability and athleticism would make him a perfect fit in Charlotte.
Video: Prospect breakdown
23. Boston Celtics
Cheick Diallo
Kansas
Freshman
Forward
Diallo didn't really do much at Kansas last season, but that won't stop a team like the Celtics from grabbing him -- especially after his strong play at the NBA combine.
He is tough and athletic, and he might have the best motor in the draft. He's raw. But had he stayed in school another season, he probably would have been a lottery pick next year. That makes him good value here and potentially a starter on the Maine Red Claws.
24. Philadelphia 76ers (via Heat)
Tyler Ulis
Kentucky
Sophomore
Guard
The Sixers need point guards in the worst way. Drafting Ben Simmons would give them such a playmaker -- albeit a 6-foot-10, 240-pound playmaker. But they'll still need more help.
Physically, Ulis is the exact opposite of Simmons, but he would bring the toughness and basketball IQ this young Philly team really needs. He competes and he wins.
Video: Prospect breakdown
25. Los Angeles Clippers
DeAndre Bembry
St. Joseph's
Junior
Forward
Bembry is getting looks as high as the Pistons at No. 18. His feel for the game, court vision and athleticism are all intriguing.
He isn't a great shooter, which hurts his stock, but after Simmons he might be the best passer in this draft.
Video: Prospect breakdown
26. Philadelphia 76ers (via Thunder)
Patrick McCaw
UNLV
Sophomore
Guard
The 76ers need wings, and, after McCaw's performance at the combine, I think he's got a shot at going here.
He's not only a good athlete who can defend multiple positions, but he's also a terrific passer and an emerging shooter.
27. Toronto Raptors
Guerschon Yabusele
France
Age: 19
Forward
Yabusele is built like a brick house. He's one of the strongest players in the draft, but he's also skilled. He moves well despite his size and has a shot that goes all the way out to the 3-point line.
The Raptors love toughness and Yabusele brings that. And given the fact that this is the Raptors' second first-round pick, a draft-and-stash type player like Yabusele makes some sense.
28. Phoenix Suns (via Cavaliers)
Juan Hernangomez
Spain
Age: 20
Forward
The Suns have three first-round picks this draft. They won't want to keep all three in the NBA next season.
Hernangomez is intriguing as a stretch-4 who played significant minutes in the ACB last season. The Suns can stash him for a year. He could really help them down the road. Big guys with solid athleticism and shooting ability don't come along every day.
29. San Antonio Spurs
Demetrius Jackson
Notre Dame
Junior
Guard
Tony Parker is starting to age and Patty Mills is just solid as a backup.
While Jackson would probably come off the bench at this stage of his career as well, he has all the physical tools to be a good point guard down the road and would fit well into the Spurs' culture.
Video: Prospect breakdown
30. Golden State Warriors
Damian Jones
Vanderbilt
Junior
Center
All three of the Warriors' true centers -- Andrew Bogut, Anderson Varejao and Festus Ezeli -- are free agents this summer.
While it's likely they'll sign at least one of them, there will be room on the roster for a player like Jones, who not only is an elite athlete but can also stretch the floor.
Video: Prospect breakdown
Juan Hernangomez
Spain
Age: 20
Forward
The Suns have three first-round picks this draft. They won't want to keep all three in the NBA next season.
Hernangomez is intriguing as a stretch-4 who played significant minutes in the ACB last season. The Suns can stash him for a year. He could really help them down the road. Big guys with solid athleticism and shooting ability don't come along every day.
29. San Antonio Spurs
Demetrius Jackson
Notre Dame
Junior
Guard
Tony Parker is starting to age and Patty Mills is just solid as a backup.
While Jackson would probably come off the bench at this stage of his career as well, he has all the physical tools to be a good point guard down the road and would fit well into the Spurs' culture.
Video: Prospect breakdown
30. Golden State Warriors
Damian Jones
Vanderbilt
Junior
Center
All three of the Warriors' true centers -- Andrew Bogut, Anderson Varejao and Festus Ezeli -- are free agents this summer.
While it's likely they'll sign at least one of them, there will be room on the roster for a player like Jones, who not only is an elite athlete but can also stretch the floor.
Video: Prospect breakdown
Draft just another reminder of MLB’s tankfest; latest draft buzz
The first pick in the 2016 draft will be made today, but the pursuit of the first pick in 2017 is being waged with vigor.
The Chicago Cubs are putting up staggering numbers and are on pace to threaten all sorts of records for success. The flip side in the National League, however, is a whole lot of unattractiveness, with a lot of it attributed by club executives designing their teams for failure (i.e., tanking). Whatever you choose to call it, this has become a commonly used strategy for rebuilding under the current rules of the collective bargaining agreement.
Last year, these were the worst run differentials in the NL:
1. Atlanta Braves: minus-187
2. Philadelphia Phillies: minus-183
3. Cincinnati Reds: minus-114
4. Milwaukee Brewers: minus-82
5. San Diego Padres: minus-81
The Phillies finished with the worst record, at 63-99, which is why they'll pick first in the draft today. But compared to the '15 Phillies, the worst clubs in the NL this year are a special kind of ugly. Atlanta is on a pace to win 47 games and the Reds 60 games, and the run-differential projections for the worst teams are extraordinary. At their current pace, this is where teams would finish in run differential:
1. Braves: minus-266
2. Reds: minus-260
3. Phillies: minus-153
4. Padres: minus-124
5. Brewers: minus-107
6. Arizona Diamondbacks: minus-101
Some of the worst teams could actually regress in the final 100 games of the schedule as they continue to sell off players to contenders, with the Reds perhaps marketing Jay Bruce and Zack Cozart, the Padres looking for deals forMelvin Upton Jr., Jon Jay, Matt Kemp, catcher Derek Norris and others, and the Braves at least listening to deals for Julio Teheran.
For these teams, this has to represent progress. For Major League Baseball, however, it's not the best product.
Draft buzz
" The Phillies still have not revealed who they will take with the No. 1 pick in the draft. The team should draft Mickey Moniak, writes Sam Donnellon.
" The Reds pick second. For most, the draft is just a dream, writes Paul Daugherty.
" The Rockies pick at No. 4, and they're looking at pitching. Colorado's history of drafting pitchers is not good, but that may have a lot more to do with ballpark conditions than with identifying the correct arms -- which makes you wonder if the Rockies should just take the safe route and take a position player at the top of the board.
" The Brewers are ready to go at No. 5.
" The Indians are prepared to react to whatever is available.
" The Mariners, who pick 11th, have resources.
NBA draft projections: Ranking Simmons, Ingram and top 40
The Philadelphia 76ers are officially on the clock for the 2016 NBA Draft, which takes place on June 23 in Brooklyn.
Most expect Sixers general manager Bryan Colangelo to select Ben Simmons with the top pick, but is there a case to be made that Brandon Ingram will be a better player?
To help sort out the debate at the top (and bottom) of the draft, ESPN Analytics has developed projections for how well college prospects ranked in Chad Ford's Top 100 will perform early in their careers. More accurately, it is predicting a player's statistical plus-minus (SPM) in years two through five in the league, which is the time frame players are under team control for below-market prices without unnecessarily penalizing them for outlier rookie seasons.
The model uses box score stats (adjusted for level of competition faced and pace), scouts' rankings and player information -- such as age, height, weight and position from 2001 to 2011 -- to project out future classes. The resulting output is twofold: a player's draft grade, which is based on his total projected SPM, and his percentage chance to play at the level of an All-Star, starter, bench player and bust in his first five seasons.
The players with the highest draft grades have the most expected SPM during years two through five, but they might not necessarily have the highest ceiling. In comparison, the buckets of All-Star, starter, bench player and bust give a clearer picture of the tradeoff between risk and reward for each prospect.
For more on the model's inputs, outputs and performance projections of past classes, we encourage anyone interested to read FiveThirtyEight's write-up on it in 2015 or this explainer.
Top 40 prospects
Player Scouts' rank Draft grade SPM
1. Brandon Ingram 2 90.5 1.1
2. Kris Dunn 4 88.9 0.9
3. Jakob Poeltl 12 88.8 0.9
4. Ben Simmons 1 88.2 0.8
5. Marquese Chriss 6 88.2 0.8
6. Jamal Murray 3 87.2 0.7
7. Deyonta Davis 16 86.4 0.6
8. Domantas Sabonis 10 85.8 0.5
9. Buddy Hield 7 85.1 0.4
10. Cheick Diallo 27 83.4 0.3
11. Jaylen Brown 8 83.1 0.2
12. Henry Ellenson 11 82.7 0.2
13. Chinanu Onuaku 35 82.2 0.1
14. Damian Jones 24 81.9 0.1
15. Diamond Stone 32 81.2 0.1
16. Skal Labissiere 13 81.1 0.1
17. Denzel Valentine 22 80.8 0.0
18. Marshall Plumlee 76 78.2 -0.2
19. Jarrod Uthoff 36 77.4 -0.2
20. Dejounte Murray 9 77.3 -0.2
Player Scouts' rank Draft grade SPM
21. Stephen Zimmerman 40 76.7 -0.3
22. Malik Beasley 17 76.2 -0.3
23. Ben Bentil 29 75.9 -0.3
24. Patrick McCaw 31 75.7 -0.3
25. Derrick Jones Jr. 98 75.3 -0.4
26. Shawn Long 99 74.6 -0.4
27. Brice Johnson 37 73.4 -0.5
28. A.J. Hammons 46 73.4 -0.5
29. DeAndre Bembry 20 72.8 -0.5
30. Tyler Ulis 23 72.7 -0.5
31. Malachi Richardson 15 72.6 -0.5
32. Prince Ibeh 88 72.4 -0.6
33. Demetrius Jackson 26 72.4 -0.6
34. Joel Bolomboy 43 72.1 -0.6
35. Robert Carter Jr. 49 72.0 -0.6
36. Brannen Greene 89 71.2 -0.6
37. Isaiah Miles 95 71.1 -0.6
38. Caris LeVert 41 71.0 -0.6
39. Jake Layman 54 70.8 -0.6
40. Daniel Hamilton 72 70.5 -0.7
Player projections
Player All-Star (%) Starter (%) Bench (%) Bust (%)
1. Brandon Ingram 25 24 26 26
2. Kris Dunn 18 21 34 26
3. Jakob Poeltl 12 32 41 16
4. Ben Simmons 25 20 20 35
5. Marquese Chriss 21 23 25 31
6. Jamal Murray 20 21 25 34
7. Deyonta Davis 7 29 43 21
8. Domantas Sabonis 10 30 31 29
9. Buddy Hield 14 14 42 30
10. Cheick Diallo 5 22 47 27
11. Jaylen Brown 8 21 34 38
12. Henry Ellenson 7 17 48 29
13. Chinanu Onuaku 5 20 43 31
14. Damian Jones 5 17 52 26
15. Diamond Stone 4 14 56 26
16. Skal Labissiere 2 20 49 29
17. Denzel Valentine 2 20 51 27
18. Marshall Plumlee 2 7 62 29
19. Jarrod Uthoff 1 20 42 38
20. Dejounte Murray 6 15 29 50
Player All-Star (%) Starter (%) Bench (%) Bust (%)
21. Stephen Zimmerman 3 14 38 44
22. Malik Beasley 3 7 51 39
23. Ben Bentil 4 5 54 36
24. Patrick McCaw 1 15 43 40
25. Derrick Jones Jr. 3 9 42 45
26. Shawn Long 2 6 57 35
27. Brice Johnson 2 5 54 38
28. A.J. Hammons 1 8 52 39
29. DeAndre Bembry 0 7 51 42
30. Tyler Ulis 2 11 37 51
31. Malachi Richardson 1 9 44 46
32. Prince Ibeh 1 2 58 39
33. Demetrius Jackson 1 13 37 49
34. Joel Bolomboy 2 7 47 43
35. Robert Carter Jr. 1 7 51 42
36. Brannen Greene 1 9 48 43
37. Isaiah Miles 1 3 54 42
38. Caris LeVert 1 6 49 45
39. Jake Layman 0 8 48 44
40. Daniel Hamilton 2 10 34 53
So what should the 76ers do with the top pick?
Despite the consensus among scouts, these projections question whether Simmons is truly the best player in the class. Ingram has the highest draft grade, based on total projected SPM, and he is most likely to play at the level of an All-Star or starter during his first five seasons.
In comparison, Simmons has similar upside, but he comes with a far greater risk. In fact, among the top 10 college prospects in the projections, no player had a higher bust potential than Simmons. While that bust rate of 35 percent might seem high, it's worth noting that of the past 10 players selected No. 1 overall, three (Greg Oden, Anthony Bennett and Andrea Bargnani) have been widely considered disappointments.
Why do the projections favor Ingram? To start, he is more than a year younger than Simmons and can stretch the floor, which is becoming more important for forwards in today's NBA. Simmons has the edge when it comes to playmaking and rebounding, though, so the 76ers will have to weigh the risk and reward of each prospect and how he fills their biggest needs.
For teams looking at guards, the debate likely shifts to Providence's Kris Dunn and Kentucky's Jamal Murray. Again, the conversation comes down to risk aversion. Murray has the highest upside of any guard, but Dunn has the highest draft grade and lowest bust potential. Despite entering the draft at age 22, Dunn's college statistics -- in particular, his vision and defensive production -- are unrivaled among guards in this class.
Though the focus will always be at the top of the draft, it is likely that in 10 years this class will be remembered for its depth rather than its superstars. Highlighted by the deepest crop of college big men we've seen in the past 15 seasons, there are plenty of steals to be found outside the lottery.
For example, Michigan State's Deyonta Davis, Kansas' Cheick Diallo and Louisville's Chinanu Onuaku rank outside the top 14 on Chad Ford's Big Board but would be lottery picks based on these projections. All three big men have one thing in common: elite rebounding, which is one factor that translates to the NBA.
Looking for another sleeper? Patrick McCaw, a 6-foot-7 shooting guard from UNLV, ranks 27th on Chad Ford's Big Board and 16th in the model's rankings. McCaw is a raw but talented 3-and-D prospect who would fit in perfectly in today's game.
Of course, there are always players that the model rates less favorably than scouts. Chief among those prospects is Vanderbilt point guard Wade Baldwin IV, who ranks 18th on Chad Ford's Big Board and 41st in the model. Baldwin's college stats will not blow anyone away, and as a bit of a tweener, the model might question how he translates to the NBA.
Now, no model or scout will ever be 100 percent accurate when projecting players to any professional league, but this one is about 10 percent better at predicting a player's actual SPM than scouts' ranks alone. If nothing else, this model provides the framework to discuss the risk, reward and potential of the prospects in this draft class.
Despite the consensus among scouts, these projections question whether Simmons is truly the best player in the class. Ingram has the highest draft grade, based on total projected SPM, and he is most likely to play at the level of an All-Star or starter during his first five seasons.
In comparison, Simmons has similar upside, but he comes with a far greater risk. In fact, among the top 10 college prospects in the projections, no player had a higher bust potential than Simmons. While that bust rate of 35 percent might seem high, it's worth noting that of the past 10 players selected No. 1 overall, three (Greg Oden, Anthony Bennett and Andrea Bargnani) have been widely considered disappointments.
Why do the projections favor Ingram? To start, he is more than a year younger than Simmons and can stretch the floor, which is becoming more important for forwards in today's NBA. Simmons has the edge when it comes to playmaking and rebounding, though, so the 76ers will have to weigh the risk and reward of each prospect and how he fills their biggest needs.
For teams looking at guards, the debate likely shifts to Providence's Kris Dunn and Kentucky's Jamal Murray. Again, the conversation comes down to risk aversion. Murray has the highest upside of any guard, but Dunn has the highest draft grade and lowest bust potential. Despite entering the draft at age 22, Dunn's college statistics -- in particular, his vision and defensive production -- are unrivaled among guards in this class.
Though the focus will always be at the top of the draft, it is likely that in 10 years this class will be remembered for its depth rather than its superstars. Highlighted by the deepest crop of college big men we've seen in the past 15 seasons, there are plenty of steals to be found outside the lottery.
For example, Michigan State's Deyonta Davis, Kansas' Cheick Diallo and Louisville's Chinanu Onuaku rank outside the top 14 on Chad Ford's Big Board but would be lottery picks based on these projections. All three big men have one thing in common: elite rebounding, which is one factor that translates to the NBA.
Looking for another sleeper? Patrick McCaw, a 6-foot-7 shooting guard from UNLV, ranks 27th on Chad Ford's Big Board and 16th in the model's rankings. McCaw is a raw but talented 3-and-D prospect who would fit in perfectly in today's game.
Of course, there are always players that the model rates less favorably than scouts. Chief among those prospects is Vanderbilt point guard Wade Baldwin IV, who ranks 18th on Chad Ford's Big Board and 41st in the model. Baldwin's college stats will not blow anyone away, and as a bit of a tweener, the model might question how he translates to the NBA.
Now, no model or scout will ever be 100 percent accurate when projecting players to any professional league, but this one is about 10 percent better at predicting a player's actual SPM than scouts' ranks alone. If nothing else, this model provides the framework to discuss the risk, reward and potential of the prospects in this draft class.
