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Skooby

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Minnesota TimberwolvesFact or Fiction: The Timberwolves should spend their cap space this offseason.
Kevin Pelton: Fiction. Minnesota will be better positioned to strike in free agency in 2017, when the team will likely be a better draw for top free agents and will have more money available to spend.

More questions:

  • Three pros and cons of the Thibodeau hire?
  • Fact or Fiction: We have seen the Wolves' next playoff starting lineup.
  • What intrigues you most about the Wolves going forward?
  • How many games will Minnesota win next season?
For all the answers, check out the 5-on-5 on the future of the Wolves



New York KnicksIs it time for the Knicks and Carmelo Anthony to part ways?
Amin Elhassan: Elhassan: Melo's no-trade clause notwithstanding, it's time to aggressively shop him. If they can get a first-round pick for him, great. But waiting until after the first week of free agency might yield some desperate suitors who have struck out in the market and want something to show for their cap space.

More questions:

  • Was Jeff Hornacek the best hire for New York?
  • What other moves do you expect from the Knicks this offseason?
  • Is Phil Jackson part of the problem or part of the solution?
  • If the Knicks were a stock and you were looking five years ahead, would you buy, sell or hold?
For all the answers, check out the 5-on-5 on the future of the Knicks

Portland Trail BlazersWhat's missing in Portland?
Bradford Doolittle: As well as the Lillard-McCollum-Crabbe backcourt played, in the long run the Blazers are going to need a dynamic defensive presence in the middle to make it work on both ends. Also, you'd like to see a little more of an offensive standout at small forward, though I really like the way Al-Farouq Aminu has come along.

More questions:

  • Who should be the primary center for Portland going forward?
  • What other moves do you expect from the Blazers this offseason?
  • Where will the 2016-17 Blazers finish in the standings?
  • Fact or Fiction: Damian Lillard will win the West as a Blazer.
For all the answers, check out the 5-on-5 on the future of the Blazers





San Antonio SpursFact or fiction: In terms of basketball decisions, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili should retire.
Kevin Arnovitz: In basketball terms, probably. But it's unseemly for anyone to tell a grown professional when and why they should stop working.

More questions:

  • Fact or fiction: Kevin Durant is in play for the Spurs.
  • What other moves do you expect from the Spurs this offseason?
  • Who should be the starting PG next season?
  • Fact or fiction: Before he retires, Gregg Popovich will win one for the other ring finger.
For all the answers, check out the 5-on-5 on the future of the Spurs





Washington WizardsHow likely are the Wizards to sign Kevin Durant with Brooks now in Washington?
Tom Haberstroh: 5 percent. The Wizards had a disastrous season, and there are a lot of questions surrounding Bradley Beal's health going forward. I'm not sure Durant sees enough reliable star power in the nation's capital to tempt him away from Westbrook.

More questions:

  • Was Brooks the best coaching hire for Washington?
  • What other moves do you expect from the Wizards this offseason?
  • Fact or Fiction: The Wizards have more than one future All-Star on their roster.
  • How many games do you expect the Wizards win next season?
For all the answers, check out the 5-on-5 on the future of the Wizards
 

Skooby

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Draft workout confidential: Inside look at Hield, Dunn, Chriss, more




Every year ESPN attends individual workouts for prospects as they prepare for the NBA draft.

Last Friday I filed a report from Chicago and New York on Brandon Ingram, Jamal Murray, Thon Maker, Wade Baldwin and others.

This week, I saw Buddy Hield, Kris Dunn, Marquese Chriss, Henry Ellenson, Jakob Poeltl and Tyler Ulis and talked to NBA scouts and GMs.

Here's what I've learned so far.







Buddy Hield, SG, Sr., Oklahoma



Hield spent his entire senior season getting the biggest compliment any draft prospect could receive. College basketball analysts dubbed him the "Steph Curry" of NCAA hoops.

The two-time reigning MVP has big shoes to fill, and Hield doesn't seem shy about trying to fill them. His elite shooting with deep, deep range combined with a confidence that borders just on the right side of cocky make for obvious comparisons.

When these guys get rolling, there's little opposing defenses can do to stop them. And the work ethic of both players is legendary.

NBA draft workout confidentials


Get more inside looks at prospect workouts from Chad Ford.





In his workout in Anaheim, California, on Tuesday, Hield certainly looked the part as a shooter. He rarely missed shots, regardless of where he was on the floor. When the NBA 3-point line became boring (a line that is typically intimidating for college shooters, regardless of their skill), he was comfortable stepping back another five feet and hitting 20-of-25 from "Curry range" in one drill. And Hield did it with all the confidence that he showed at Oklahoma last season. He believes he can be special; great shooters need that level of confidence.

His confidence and quick release make him arguably the best shooter in this draft. In a league desperate for shooters, that only makes him a more attractive lottery pick.

He also knows that the Curry comparison isn't a perfect fit. Curry is an elite ball handler with crazy good court vision. Hield's handle and court vision have been criticized by scouts. And while Curry isn't an all-NBA defender, his effort on that end clearly surpasses Hield's right now.

Of course, when Curry entered the league, virtually every scout worried about similar things: Is he a point guard? Can he defend anyone?

Hield hears the criticism and has been spending most of the past six weeks tightening up his handle and working on his explosiveness in an effort to improve his lateral quickness. He has even received some on-court tutoring fromKobe Bryant.

Both efforts are coming along nicely. Hield looked terrific in a number of ball handling drills, and while I didn't get to see him play defense (he was in a one-on-none workout), he seemed confident he was going to address his defensive deficiencies in the NBA.

"My freshman year I was a good defender," Hield said. "My sophomore, junior and senior year I turned into a scorer. I took a step back the last three years.

"But if you want something you go and get it. I know in the NBA there will be a lot of 2-guards coming at me. I know I have to stop them to stay on the court. Defense comes from your heart inside. ... I have a lot of heart.

"I'm not going to let anyone take advantage of me. That's how it's always been for me growing up. So I'm going to do what I have to do when I get there and I don't think defense will be a problem for me."





Kris Dunn, PG, Jr., Providence
Dunn went counter to conventional wisdom last year and decided to return to Providence, despite the fact that most teams had projected him as a late lottery pick.

Dunn said his motivation was primarily academic. He wanted to leave Providence with a college degree. Not only did he graduate last week, fulfilling a lifelong dream, his draft stock improved as well.

Dunn's elite size, quickness and power for a point guard are his primary draws. So is a fierce competitiveness, especially on the defensive end, that should make NBA head coaches drool. Few prospects compete as aggressively as Dunn does.

In one-on-one and two-on-two drills I saw on Monday and Wednesday, Dunn lived and died by every possession. He appeared incredulous every time he missed a shot or his team lost. And when his team won or even when he'd just win an individual match-up? The swagger showed.

And Dunn had plenty of opportunities to compete. I saw him go up against two NBA players, Elfrid Payton and Nick Johnson, and two other draft prospects, Tyler Ulis and Ron Baker, in multiple one-on-one, two-on-two and three-on-three sessions.

To appreciate a guard like Dunn, you really need to see him in live action. He does well enough in the drills (and on Wednesday he was knocking a high percentage in shooting drills), but when the lights come on, he's a more focused and aggressive player.

Right now his defense is ahead of his offense. No one in the gym could score on him with any regularity. Blessed with size, strength, length, speed and aggressiveness, he has the potential to be an All-Defensive team member in the NBA someday. If he can avoid foul trouble, someday might not be that far away.

One of my favorite moments of the past few weeks came when Dunn got caught on a switch against Guerschon Yabusele, a 6-foot-8, 270 pound power forward. As Yabusele banged away at Dunn, Dunn banged right back, refusing to cede an inch.

Offensively, his speed, court vision and strength allow him to get to wherever he wants on the floor. While at times I felt like he could be even more aggressive hunting for his own shot at both Providence and in the live scrimmages I saw, the fact that he's a "pure" point guard who plays unselfishly is a big part of his appeal to teams.

"I love to compete every day," Dunn said. "It's good to have those NBA players come in and test our capabilities against those type of guys and see if, you know, we can play at a high level like those guys. It's good for us. I was taught to not back down from nobody. That's the type of player I am."




Marquese Chriss, PF, Fr., Washington
Hield may be the best shooter in the draft and Dunn may be the best defender. Chriss' claim to fame: He is an absolute freaky athlete for a player his size.

During one of his drills, he almost knocked himself out, barely missing hitting his forehead on the rim during a powerful dunk. There aren't a lot of 6-foot-10 forwards with his combination of explosive leaping ability and agility. He moves as well as any big I've seen since Andre Drummond.

But Chriss isn't just an athlete. He also comes with a sweet stroke that should allow him to be a stretch-4 in the league. And his leaping ability and aggressiveness on defense make him a terrific option as a rim protector.

He needs to get stronger, become a better rebounder and stay out of foul trouble, but he brings tools to the floor that make his ceiling as high as that of anyone in this draft not named Ben Simmons or Brandon Ingram. The fact that he's one of the youngest players in the draft also helps his cause.

While we have generally pegged him in the No. 7-10 range, teams as high as the Suns at No. 4 are considering him. They need a stretch floor, and the other options (Dragan Bender, Henry Ellenson) don't have the athletic upside that Chriss does.

There is a risk factor with Chriss, though. He's far from a finished prospect and scouts have wrung their hands a bit about whether he's mature enough for the NBA. His body language at Washington could have been better. For Chriss, it's not a question they should worry about.

"I think the teams liked me," Chriss said about his interviews at the draft combine. "They were trying to figure out who I am.

"As a teammate off the court, I'm kind of the opposite of how I play. When I'm on the court I'm kind of mean and mad, but I'm never really mad. I feel like I smile a lot. ... I don't really have a lot friends when I play. My friends are my teammates really. On the court I like to be focused and keep my head straight."





Henry Ellenson, F/C, Fr., Marquette


Ellenson is right there with Chriss as a stretch-4. I saw him in a workout in Bel-Air on Tuesday morning and he was impressive as well.

Ellenson measured 6-foot-11.5 in shoes with a 7-foot-2.5 wingspan at the combine. That's the size of most centers in the NBA.

Yet Ellenson seems more comfortable playing away from the basket. He shot just 29 percent from 3-point territory in college, but you wouldn't know it by how well he shot the ball in workouts. While his release is a bit on the slow side, he has great shooting form and showed he could hit shots with regularity from anywhere on the floor.

He also possesses a crafty midrange game and excelled in a series of drills, where he specialized in the step-back jumper -- a Dirk Nowitzki specialty.

Ellenson is bigger and a better rebounder than Chriss. He also has a more refined midrange game, too. But he lacks the elite athletic ability and rim protection that Chriss provides.

That lack of explosiveness may end up hurting him as teams in the mid-to-late lottery decide between the two. But Ellenson's floor seems significantly higher than Chriss' and a team wanting to go a safer route (especially a team that thinks they can play him as a stretch-5) might choose the more polished Ellenson.





Jakob Poeltl, C, So., Utah


Poeltl is the top center prospect on our draft board and might be the only pure 5 man to go in the lottery. He has elite size for his position (standing 7-foot-1.25) and is a highly intelligent player who beats guys in the paint and on the boards.

The main knocks on Poeltl has been about his strength and his jump shot. Correcting those issues has been the focus of his workouts here.

He clearly has the frame to continue to add strength, but it's also toughness that scouts question. In workouts on Monday and Wednesday, he showed a lot of fight against the likes of Karl-Anthony Towns, Damian Jones and Yabusele. All of those players are stronger and more physical than Poeltl, but he held his own on both ends of the court. I think that's what scouts and GMs will want to see from him when he starts working out for teams.

His jump shot is coming along as well. He showed a really nice stroke from midrange and is working on extending it beyond the 3-point line. While his mechanics are a little awkward (he holds the ball out in front of his face as he shoots), the shot was going in during the workouts.

"I feel like I've improved my shot," Poeltl said. "We have a really good crew at Pro Active that do the strength part for us. We talked about it before I came here that they want to keep my agility while making me more athletic and more strong, not necessarily too heavy or slow.

"I want to stay the type of player I am right now, just get stronger in the process. I've noticed some improvements already."
 

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Tyler Ulis, PG, So., Kentucky
Scouts don't really question anything about Ulis' game. He has the best court vision of anyone in the draft, with the exception of Ben Simmons. He's quick, finds the perfect balance between scoring and distributing the ball, disrupts on defense and acts as a consummate leader on the court.

But he's 5-foot-10 in shoes. Some teams won't even consider a guard that size, despite the success of Isaiah Thomas and other small guards in the league. No matter how well he sees the floor, shoots or defends, in many cases teams are averse to having players that small.

Ulis is working hard to change their minds. It's the two-on-two and three-on-three drills in which he really shines. He rarely, if ever, makes a bad pass. And when he's running the show, his team usually wins the contest.

He gives up size on both ends, but he makes up for it with terrific basketball IQ, elite speed and a toughness that invites his teammates to follow him.

"I've always have had confidence in my game," he said. "Seeing Isaiah Thomas or Chris Paul dominating the game despite being small gives me a lot of confidence. I feel I can excel at the next level. There's more space, more pick-and-rolls.

"I'm working on my body to get stronger and I think I'll be good. I'm a pass-first point guard who puts my teammates first. I score when I have to, but I try to make sure I set up my teammates to score if I can. I want to make the game easier for everyone."





Damian Jones, C, Jr., Vanderbilt


Jones remains one of the bigger enigmas in the draft. He has an NBA body (he's 6-foot-11.5 and 234 pounds with a 7-foot-3.75 wingspan) and is a crazy athlete for his size (think DeAndre Jordan).

He also really surprises you in workouts with a smooth jump shot that extends out past the NBA 3-point line. Jones doesn't just shoot it well for a big man. He's a good shooter -- something you never really saw him do at Vanderbilt.

On paper, he should be a top-10 pick. And in a workout setting like this, he really looks like one. He's strong and super explosive and he can score in a variety of ways. He really passes the eye test.

But on the court, that didn't always show. He had several big games for Vanderbilt last season but also disappeared in key stretches. He didn't dominate in the way his physical talent suggested he should. Will that ultimately hurt him in the NBA?

Scouts are pretty mixed on that. Some see him solidly in the middle of the first round. Others have him in the second.

After his workout on Wednesday in front of roughly 100 NBA scouts, several teams singled him out as someone who impressed them.

"You just aren't going to find many guys in the draft that have his physical abilities," one GM said. "Remember that Andre Drummond and DeAndre Jordan were disappointing in college, too. I think his abilities will look a lot better in the NBA. I think you guys have him ranked too low. There's a lot to work with there."

After watching him myself the past couple of days, I have to agree. He'll move up our Big Board into the first round in our next edition.





Guerschon Yabusele, PF, France


Yabusele has been the biggest surprise of the workout tour. While I've had him ranked as a bubble first-rounder for a while, seeing him against other top talent convinced me that he should be firmly in the mix.

He's one of the strongest players in the draft, and though he lacks elite height for his position, he makes up for it with length and surprising explosiveness and agility. There aren't a lot of 270-pound prospects who move like he does.

Yabusele more than held his own in the two days of workouts I saw against the likes of Poeltl, Jones and Alex Poythress. His physicality and aggressiveness on both ends should translate in the NBA. And like so many big men these days, he can really shoot the basketball.

"He's a really good player," one assistant GM told me on Wednesday. "He's very underrated because he's a little bit undersized. But to me he's like Jared Sullinger with athleticism. And he can play right now in the NBA."




Alex Poythress, F, Sr., Kentucky


Poythress has become the forgotten man. Almost four years ago, he made a brief appearance atop our Big Board after a strong showing early in his freshman year. He's one of the best athletes in the draft, he defends multiple positions and he finishes above the rim.

Alas, confidence issues and then injuries marred the second half of his college career.

His jump shot never came around, and, just when he started getting things going his junior season, an ACL injury knocked him out. Many scouts believe Kentucky would've gone undefeated had they had Poythress in that Final Four.

This year he played the entire season still recovering, and his trademark athleticism wasn't all there.

Six weeks of intensive rehab and training have helped. Poythress looked as bouncy as ever. He showed the ability to defend everyone in the gym and displayed an improved jump shot. It's still not where it needs to be, but it's getting there.

His defensive abilities warrant a team taking a chance on him in the second round as a potential 3-and-D player. Still, the second round is far away from where he was.

Poythress is taking the diminished expectations in stride. He graduated, started graduate school this year and is just a couple of classes away from a masters in sport leadership.

"I feel a little forgotten," Poythress said. "It is what it is. I just come here every day trying to work hard, grinding through it, trying to reach my goals.

"The pressure [at Kentucky] was crazy, but I feel like it prepared me to play in the NBA. It matured me. It helped me look at life in a different way."





Isaia Cordinier, SG, France


Cordinier has been on the NBA radar screen all year, but a lackluster performance at the Nike Hoop Summit in April diminished his draft stock. He showed up in Los Angeles on Monday for his first workouts here, and he looked much more comfortable.

He shot the ball well, was very competitive in the two-on-two and three-on-three matchups and especially showed an ability to create his own shot off the dribble. He needs to get stronger and more consistent as a shooter, but I saw a lot of promise.





Ron Baker, G, Sr., Wichita State


Baker is a former walk-on turned draft prospect. Few players can make such a claim.

His ability to play both the 1 and the 2, his shooting stroke and his toughness all make him an intriguing guy for the second round. And the analytics crowd loves him.

He shot the ball really well in workouts, did gritty work on the defensive end trying to contain Kris Dunn and showed a terrific motor and attitude in the workouts. He plays so hard on both ends that coaches will fall in love with him.

"He's got a chance," one GM told me after the workout. "I'm not sure exactly where he gets drafted, but that doesn't matter. What matters is whether you can stick in the league, and I think he has a skill set and work ethic to stick."





Brandon Austin, G/F, Jr., Northwest Florida
Austin is an under-the-radar prospect relatively unknown to NBA scouts after he bounced around schools (he was twice accused of sexual assault in college).

Several scouts I spoke with at the workout on Wednesday said he was the surprise of the day. His athleticism, quickness and shooting ability are intriguing to teams despite the fact that he's still pretty raw due to missing so much time on the court the past few years. He's a project but might be worth taking a flier on.
 

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Ranking NFL's 10 worst QB depth charts of past 10 years



The New York Jets had a quality defense last season. They have two very good veteran receivers in Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker. They have a promising tight end, Jace Amaro, coming back from a lost season. This would all make Jets fans feel pretty good if the quarterback situation didn't seem like a complete disaster.

The Jets and the team's starting quarterback last season, Ryan Fitzpatrick, have been dancing around contact terms for months. But as of now, Fitzpatrick remains a free agent, even though he says he wants to come back. Once a mediocre backup, Fitzpatrick has put up the best performances of his career in the past two seasons. He would be a colossal upgrade over the quarterbacks left on the Jets' roster.

Geno Smith was awful in his first two seasons and apparently lost the Jets' locker room before he lost his job last season. The selection of Christian Hackenberg in the second round was roundly disparaged by Draft Twitter. Third-stringer Bryce Petty didn't even understand how NFL defenses work when he was drafted out of Baylor last year. Jets fans lament: This has got to be the worst depth chart any team has had at the position in years.

Actually, it's not.

I went through rosters from the past 10 years, looking at where each NFL team's quarterback depth chart stood at the beginning of the season. And it's remarkable just how many really awful quarterback situations there have been.

Here are the 10 worst since 2007 based on what we knew about the players at the time. Veterans were judged by their recent performance in advanced stats, including ESPN's Total QBR and Football Outsiders' DYAR and DVOA (explained here). Young players from the first three rounds were judged by Football Outsiders' QBASE projections if they were chosen in the top 100 picks, and draft position if they were taken later.



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10. 2016 Cleveland Browns
Robert Griffin III / Josh McCown / Cody Kessler / Connor Shaw

Perhaps Hue Jackson can somehow find a way to unlock the potential Robert Griffin III showed as a rookie, when he ranked third in the NFL with a 75.6 QBR. But Griffin fell to 42.1 in 2013 and 33.5 in 2014, then lost his job to Kirk Cousins.


Josh McCown will start if Griffin doesn't. McCown, of course, had that amazing half-season for the 2013 Bears, but based on DVOA ratings, that was the only year in his career he was ever above average. He had the worst DVOA in the league in 2014, and his QBR that year ranked ahead of only rookie Blake Bortles. Last year, McCown was a bit better (23rd in DVOA and 22nd in QBR), but he's going to be 37 this year, making him the third-oldest QB in the league behind Tom Brady and Drew Brees.

Third on the depth chart is Cody Kessler, a third-round rookie from USC with a dismal minus-201 QBASE. (The average QBASE for prospects since 1998 is 437, and the only quarterback with negative QBASE to eventually make a Pro Bowl was Brian Griese.) 2014 UDFA Connor Shaw is also around for training camp.





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9. 2014 Tennessee Titans
Jake Locker / Charlie Whitehurst / Zach Mettenberger

Jake Locker was chosen eighth overall in the 2011 draft, but it's hard to think of what he had going for him by 2014. QBASE rated him a mediocre prospect coming out of college (261) because of poor completion rates. In the NFL, Locker couldn't seem to stay healthy, starting just 18 games in his first three seasons. He had 39.3 QBR in 2012, the only year in his career with more than 200 pass attempts. His 52.4 QBR in 2013 looks decent but is a bit deceiving because Locker mostly played the easier defenses on the Tennessee schedule. (In Football Outsiders stats for that year, incorporating opponent adjustments dropped his DVOA rank from 19th to 22nd.)

Locker's backup was Charlie Whitehurst (aka Clipboard Jesus). Whitehurst came into the league in 2006 with a horrible QBASE projection (minus-271) and then barely played. At age 32, with eight NFL seasons under his belt, Whitehurst had just 155 career pass attempts. When he came to Tennessee, he had only one season with more than 100 pass plays (2010) and Whitehurst put up a horrific 16.7 QBR that year.

Behind Locker and Whitehurst was sixth-round rookie Zach Mettenberger out of LSU. For a long time the Titans kept telling the media that Mettenberger was the next Tom Brady, but in the end, it turned out he wasn't even the next Jake Locker.




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8. 2013 Oakland Raiders
Terrelle Pryor / Matt Flynn / Matt McGloin

The 2013 Raiders depth chart was topped by Terrelle Pryor, who was such a good quarterback that he's now a wide receiver. Pryor had a minus-18 QBASE as a third-round supplemental pick in 2011, and entering 2013, he had thrown 30 regular-season passes in his first two NFL seasons. Pryor won the job in camp over Matt Flynn, the former Green Bay backup who got a big free-agent contract from Seattle after his six-touchdown performance against Detroit in the final week of 2011. That game was a huge fluke; Flynn had just 26.4 QBR and minus-16 percent DVOA in his two games in 2010. Flynn lost the Seattle job to Russell Wilson before the 2012 season began, was traded to Oakland, then saw Pryor beat him out too.

For their third spot, the Raiders chose to keep undrafted rookie Matt McGloin out of Penn State over fourth-round rookie Tyler Wilson. The Arkansas product was the highest pick in the 2013 NFL draft who couldn't make his team's opening day roster.





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7. 2013 Jacksonville Jaguars
Blaine Gabbert / Chad Henne / Ricky Stanzi

As a rookie in 2011, Blaine Gabbert had a DVOA rating of minus-42.5 percent, the second-lowest out of every quarterback with at least 400 passes since 1989. (The only player lower: David Carr for the 2002 Texans.) The next year, Gabbert was a little better, and his DVOA of minus-25.3 percent ranked 34th out of 38 quarterbacks with at least 200 pass attempts.

Gabbert's backup was Chad Henne, who was close to average in limited play in 2011 and then just as bad as Gabbert in 2012. He basically split the 2012 with Gabbert 50-50 and had roughly the same DVOA rating (minus-24.6 percent). However, Henne had been slightly above-average as a starter in Miami in 2009-2010, and was considered a respectable veteran backup, which is why the Jaguars don't rank higher on this list. The third-stringer was Ricky Stanzi, a 2011 fifth-round pick of Kansas City who never took a regular-season snap in the NFL.






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6. 2008 Kansas City Chiefs
Brodie Croyle / Damon Huard / Tyler Thigpen

The 2008 Chiefs were what the 2016 Browns would look like if they didn't have Robert Griffin III. The role of Josh McCown was played by Damon Huard, who had an amazing half-season in 2006 which was similar to the great half-season McCown had in 2013. Like McCown, Huard was below average the entire rest of his career. As the Kansas City starter for most of 2007, he ranked 29th out of 30 qualifying quarterbacks with 29.6 QBR.

Late in that season, Huard was benched for Brodie Croyle, a third-round pick in 2006 who entered the league with a poor QBASE projection of minus-173. He barely played as a rookie; given a chance in his second year, he was even worse than Huard, with 28.5 QBR in six starts.

Backing up these two quarterbacks was Tyler Thigpen. Minnesota drafted Thigpen out of FCS Coastal Carolina in the seventh round of the previous draft but cut him before the 2007 season. He was picked up by Kansas City and went 2-for-7 with a pick in limited rookie action. Thigpen eventually started 11 games that season and is now primarily known for a panel at the 2013 Sloan Sports Analytics Conference during which Herm Edwards spent an hour blaming Thigpen for everything that went wrong for the Chiefs in 2008.





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5. 2016 New York Jets
Geno Smith / Christian Hackenberg / Bryce Petty

It isn't impossible to imagine that Geno Smith could resurrect his career and become a quality NFL starting quarterback. He did manage one good game in 2015, with 66.2 QBR against an underrated Oakland defense when he came in to replace an injured Fitzpatrick. He was amazing in Week 17 of 2014, completing 20 of 25 passes for 358 yards with 94.0 QBR against Miami. On the other hand, scroll up and read about Matt Flynn again, then ask yourself how much we can really learn from a single great game in Week 17.

Smith had 38.6 QBR in 2013 and 44.3 QBR in 2014. According to Football Outsiders' DYAR metric, he was below replacement level in both seasons. Since 1989, only one quarterback has been below replacement level with at least 200 pass attempts in both of his first two seasons and then developed into a quality NFL starter: Troy Aikman in 1989-1990.

If the Jets don't re-sign Ryan Fitzpatrick, Smith will face a challenge in training camp from second-round pick Christian Hackenberg. But there's a reason so many people made fun of the Jets' selection of Hackenberg: Given the bubble screen-heavy structure of today's college offenses, a quarterback who completes 56 percent of his passes in college is simply not a good NFL prospect. Hackenberg's QBASE of minus-409 is tied for the fifth-worst out of any top 100-drafted quarterback since 1998.

Behind Hackenberg is Bryce Petty. Officially, only quarterbacks chosen in the top 100 get QBASE projections, and Petty was chosen 103rd overall in 2015. If he had a QBASE, it would have been minus-291.






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4. 2007 Buffalo Bills
J.P. Losman / Trent Edwards / Craig Nall

Like Geno Smith, J.P. Losman forced us to ask ourselves, "How long can a highly drafted quarterback play badly before we give up on him?" But Losman was a worse prospect than Smith when he came out of college, with a QBASE of minus-25. As a rookie, Losman's minus-41.5 percent DVOA was the lowest of any quarterback with at least 200 passes. Unlike Smith, at least Losman came in (barely) above replacement level in his sophomore season, with minus-9.0 percent DVOA.

Backing up Losman was Trent Edwards, a third-round pick out of Stanford. Edwards completed only 56 percent of his passes at Stanford with a 36/33 TD/INT ratio, and his QBASE projection of minus-524 is the third-worst since 1998.

The third quarterback for the Bills that year was Craig Nall, a 2002 fifth-round pick of the Packers who had a strong performance in Week 17 of 2004 -- notice a pattern here? -- but otherwise barely played for four years in Green Bay before signing with Buffalo in 2006.
 

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3. 2008 San Francisco 49ers
J.T. O'Sullivan / Shaun Hill / Alex Smith

Consider everything you think right now about Robert Griffin III. Now think back and try to remember what you thought of Alex Smith in 2008.

Griffin was taken No. 2 overall, only one pick later than Smith. He had a better college career than Smith. We didn't do QBASE projections back then, but our system shows Griffin (QBASE 1193) as a better prospect than Smith (QBASE 789) coming out of college. As noted above, Griffin was awesome as a rookie. Smith, on the other hand, had minus-88.6 percent DVOA, the worst season ever for a quarterback with at least 100 pass attempts. As bad as Griffin was in the next two seasons, Smith was worse, with 32.7 QBR in 2006 and 14.8 QBR in 2007.

Going into 2008, Smith looked like a completely lost cause. It seemed impossible to imagine that he could rescue his career and actually develop into a reasonable, league-average starting quarterback. In fact, he was so lost that he was bumped down to third string by the end of training camp, falling behind two journeymen with almost no actual regular-season playing experience. (He ended up going on injured reserve after Week 1 because of shoulder issues.)

Instead of Smith, the 49ers' opening day starter was J.T. O'Sullivan, the Saints' sixth-round pick out of Division II UC Davis in 2002. He bounced between seven teams (Chicago twice) before he ended up with the 2007 Lions. O'Sullivan had a poor minus-25.0 percent DVOA on 30 plays in 2007, but Mike Martz brought him along when he left the Lions for the 49ers that offseason, then made him the starting quarterback.

Behind O'Sullivan was Shaun Hill, who had a somewhat similar history. Hill went undrafted in 2002, but unlike O'Sullivan, he had played for only two teams: He was with Minnesota from 2002-2005 and then signed with San Francisco. Like O'Sullivan, Hill didn't play at all in the regular season for his first five years, 2002-2006. He did manage an above-average 3.1 percent DVOA on 84 pass plays in 2007. He was surprisingly adequate when he took over from O'Sullivan halfway through 2008 and has gone on to a long career as a capable NFL backup.






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2. 2012 Arizona Cardinals
John Skelton / Kevin Kolb / Ryan Lindley

The Cardinals drafted John Skelton out of Fordham in the fifth round of the 2010 draft. He was forced to start four games as a rookie and was as terrible as you might imagine a fifth-round rookie with only FCS experience would be: Skelton completed just 48 percent of his passes with a miserable 22.7 QBR. So the next offseason, the Cardinals traded cornerback Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and a second-round pick to Philadelphia for Kevin Kolb.

Except, Kolb was also dismal for Arizona, finishing 31st out of 32 qualifying quarterbacks with 23.1 QBR in 2011. Skelton came back in when Kolb was injured for a few games but wasn't much better, with 33.8 QBR. However, he went 5-2 as a starter. Sure, the Arizona defense allowed less than 21 points in each game and all five wins came by less than a touchdown, but Skelton had shown he was "a winner." That made him the starter in 2012 with Kolb as the backup. Third string belonged to Ryan Lindley, a sixth-round rookie out of San Diego State. All three ended up starting games in a lackluster 5-11 season for the Cardinals.

However, I didn't rank this as the worst quarterback depth chart of the past 10 years because at least it could be argued that Kolb still had some potential based on his performance with the Eagles. Instead, the top spot goes to ...





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1. 2011 Washington Redskins
Rex Grossman / John Beck / Jonathan Crompton

Donovan McNabb had a lousy first season with the Redskins, so Mike Shanahan traded him to the Vikings in July. That left Washington with two career backups to fight over the starting job: one with a terrible track record and one with almost no track record.

Rex Grossman eventually started in Week 1. In his 11-year NFL career, Grossman never had an above-average DVOA rating or completed 60 percent of his passes in a season. Grossman started three games when Shanahan benched McNabb the season prior, and put up a pathetic QBR of 23.6. When he topped the depth chart for the 2011 Redskins, Grossman had not thrown more than 250 passes in a season since 2006, the year he "led" Chicago to Super Bowl XLI (i.e. was dragged by the Bears' defense).

Grossman's backup was John Beck. As an overaged 26-year-old rookie in 2007, Beck had a horrific minus-54.9 percent DVOA and 8.9 QBR. He then wasted away on the Miami bench and didn't take a regular-season snap for three seasons.

Shanahan inexplicably had so much faith in Grossman and Beck that he didn't even carry a third quarterback on the active roster. Jonathan Crompton spent the year on the practice squad and would have been the backup if either Grossman or Beck had been injured. The Chargers' fifth-round in 2009 out of Tennessee, Crompton had already been cut by three teams before Washington signed him.


Honorable Mention: 2011 Indianapolis Colts
This depth chart might have been even worse than Washington's -- once it was clear Peyton Manning would miss the entire season. However, Manning's status was still a mystery when the Colts started training camp; deep into the regular season, the team was still holding on to hope Manning would be able to play. He was the true No. 1 on the depth chart, but Curtis Painter was a poor contingency plan, forcing the Colts to sign Kerry Collins out of retirement just two weeks before the regular season began.

There have been so many bad quarterback depth charts over the past decade that there's another whole top 10 list of teams I considered when preparing this article. Here they are to add to the discussion.

2009 Buffalo Bills (Edwards, Ran Fitzpatrick, Hamdan)
2009 St. Louis Rams (Bulger, Boller, Null)
2010 Carolina Panthers (Moore, Clausen, Pike)
2010 Cleveland Browns (Delhomme, Wallace, McCoy)
2010 Tampa Bay Buccaneers (Freeman, Johnson, Carpenter)
2012 New York Jets (Sanchez, Tebow, McElroy)
2013 Buffalo Bills (Manuel, Tuel, Lewis)
2013 Cleveland Browns (Weeden, Campbell, Hoyer)
2016 Denver Broncos (Sanchez, Lynch, Siemian)
2016 Houston Texans (Osweiler, Weeden, Savage)
 

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Top 25 prospects: Nats' Giolito climbs to No. 1


It's draft season in my world, but it's also my traditional time to make a quick tangent back to the pro side to look at the top prospects still in the minors and rookie-eligible. This list largely resembles my preseason list, but it has a few big jumps and some reordering, thanks to some significant graduations.

A few notes before we begin:

• The rankings are limited to players who still have rookie eligibility. That means they have yet to exceed 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched in the majors and have not yet spent 45 days on the active roster of a major league club, excluding call-ups during the roster expansion period after Sept. 1.

• When ranking players, I consider scouting reports on players -- usually my own, supplemented with conversations with other scouts and front-office executives, as needed -- as well as performance, adjusted for age and context.

• Finally, to see my previous version of prospect rankings (from March), click here. That's what the previous rank refers to.



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1. Lucas Giolito, RHP
Washington Nationals
Previous rank: 3
Current level: Double-A


The Nats' pitching coach at Harrisburg, Chris Michalak, decided to change Giolito's delivery this spring, which produced the subpar results Giolito had in April and early May. Fortunately, there doesn't appear to be any lasting damage to Giolito's stuff or arm -- just a delay in his arrival in the big leagues. He's still throwing hard with the plus curveball he has long had, but it might take a few more turns to get him back to where he should be at this time of the year.

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2. J.P. Crawford, SS
Philadelphia Phillies
Previous rank: 4
Current level: Triple-A


Crawford has continued to control the strike zone at an unusual level for his age -- he'll play the entire season at 21 -- and earned a promotion to Triple-A last week, even though his average was just .265 for Reading. He's still an outstanding defensive shortstop with great instincts, though now that he's at a higher level, I'd like to see him get a little more aggressive when ahead in the count because he has good bat speed and a little more power than you'd expect from a middle infielder.



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3. Julio Urias, LHP
Los Angeles Dodgers
Previous rank: 5
Current level: Triple-A


Urias won't turn 20 until August and is currently steamrolling the Triple-A level while working under a pretty tight pitch count -- his max in any one outing has been 82 pitches -- and showing the best control of his career. He has walked one batter or zero in six of his eight starts so far this season. If the Dodgers call him up as a long reliever, he could help them right away, and he would likely be better than their fifth starter options today, if it weren't for the cap on his workload.



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4. Tyler Glasnow, RHP
Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous rank: 6
Current level: Triple-A


Glasnow's season line might be a little misleading. He has had two outings in which he was wild -- he walked 10 guys in 10 innings -- but he has otherwise been a strike-thrower while still working on his changeup and improving his fastball command. If he comes up next month, which seems likely, I think he'll miss a lot of bats, walk a few more guys than the Pirates would like and make some mistakes within the zone that he has gotten away with in the minors. He's still a future ace, but it's taking time.



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5. Rafael Devers, 3B
Boston Red Sox
Previous rank: 7
Current level: High-A


Devers is mired in an 0-for-16 stretch as I write this, and that has pulled his season line down to .180/.268/.293. But bear in mind, he's in high-A and is still younger than the first high school player taken in last year's draft, Brendan Rodgers. Devers won't turn 20 until October.



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6. Andrew Benintendi, OF
Boston Red Sox
Previous rank: 18
Current level: Double-A


Benintendi destroyed high-A pitching this spring, hitting .341/.413/.563 with 13 unintentional walks and only nine strikeouts, before a promotion to Double-A last week. He has gone 2-for-15 with 5 K's there and is officially a bust.



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7. Alex Reyes, RHP
St. Louis Cardinals
Previous rank: 8
Current level: Triple-A


Reyes just made his 2016 debut Sunday, after serving a suspension for a positive marijuana test, and he punched out eight batters in four innings for Triple-A Memphis. Given St. Louis' current depth chart and the developmental time Reyes missed, he might make his debut later this year, but I think it would take a catastrophe to make him a big part of their rotation before September.



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8. Orlando Arcia, SS
Milwaukee Brewers
Previous rank: 10
Current level: Triple-A


Jonathan Villar is having the season of his life as the Brewers' shortstop -- his next walk will set a career high -- but Arcia is still the team's shortstop of the future, and I imagine he'll take over in July or August, after the Brewers shop Villar to any of the teams looking for shortstop help (Rick Hahn on Line 1, Mr. Stearns). Arcia is a plus defender at short already, and he is unlikely to learn much at the plate while playing in hitter-friendly Colorado Springs and in many other great offensive parks in the PCL.



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9. Brendan Rodgers, SS
Colorado Rockies
Previous rank: 11
Current level: Low-A


Rodgers is currently on the DL because of a hamstring injury, but before that, he had been off to the best start of any major high school prospect from last year's draft. He was hitting .346/.410/.600 for low-A Asheville and even performing well away from Asheville's hitter-friendly park.



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10. Joey Gallo, 3B
Texas Rangers
Previous rank: 12
Current level: Triple-A


(Editor's note: Gallo was called up Monday, but because Keith offers updated expectations for the slugger, we decided to keep the profile here.)

Gallo should be the Rangers' DH right now. It's not a stretch to say he could outperform Prince Fielder, even with just minimal improvement to his enormous strikeout rate from the past season. Gallo is hitting .265/.415/.639 in Triple-A at age 22, with a 23 percent strikeout rate, and he has drawn at least one walk in 15 of his past 17 games. He might swing and miss too much when he returns to the majors, but his patience and power would make him an immediate upgrade over what's left of Fielder's bat.
 

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11. Dansby Swanson, SS
Atlanta Braves
Previous rank: 13
Current level: Double-A


Swanson started the year in high-A and hasn't missed a beat since a quick promotion to Double-A, a tandem move with Ozhaino Albies (further down this list) that allowed both players to remain at shortstop. I still think Swanson is a bit more likely to be Atlanta's long-term answer at short, though even at second base, his bat would profile as a potential star.



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12. Yoan Moncada, 2B
Boston Red Sox
Previous rank: 17
Current level: High-A


Moncada, who turns 22 later this week, has been hitting in high-A this year the way, I think, the Red Sox expected him to hit last year, after they gave him one of the highest bonuses ever for an international amateur free agent. But the big surprise this season has been his 30 steals in 40 games, a big uptick over his stolen base frequency last year. The same questions remain -- how much power will he develop? Can he improve his defense enough to stay on the dirt? -- but it looks like his bat will play at any position.



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13. Blake Snell, LHP
Tampa Bay Rays
Previous rank: 14
Current level: Triple-A


Snell got one spot start for the Rays this year, and most importantly for him, he walked just one guy in five innings, though he didn't throw as many strikes as you'd like a guy with his stuff to throw. Although lots of teams are playing service-time games right now, I'm not sure the Rays are doing that with Snell because they have five solid starters in their rotation. When the need arises, Snell should be ready.



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14. Gleyber Torres, SS
Chicago Cubs
Previous rank: 15
Current level: High-A


Torres will play this entire year at 19 and is already in high-A, where he had a slow April but has hit .320/.363/.533 so far in May, along with continued strong defense at shortstop. The Cubs are going to get a lot of calls about this guy in July.



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15. Alex Bregman, SS/3B
Houston Astros
Previous rank: 19
Current level: Double-A


Bregman could always hit, even back in high school, but I think even his partisans would have said 10 to 15 home runs would be a good season total for him, as they figured he would hit for a high average with lots of doubles but not the kind of power he's showing (.658 slugging percentage, 10 homers in just 30 games). The Astros have had him play three games at third base, probably with an eye toward a midseason call-up, but I think the better alignment might be to leave Bregman at short and slide Carlos Correa, who has a much better arm, to third.



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16. Trea Turner, SS
Washington Nationals
Previous rank: 28
Current level: Triple-A


With Danny Espinosa a zero at the plate -- all he has done well this year is draw walks, which is more a function of hitting right in front of the pitcher -- there's no good baseball reason for Turner to still be in Triple-A. He would be an upgrade over Espinosa on both offense and defense, and with the Nats in a race with the Mets that could easily come down to one or two wins at the end of the season, the decision to hold Turner in Triple-A just to retain his services for 2023 looks myopic.



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17. Ozhaino Albies, SS
Atlanta Braves
Previous rank: 20
Current level: Triple-A


Albies is just 19 in Triple-A, so although he has struggled since his promotion, I'm somewhat inclined to ignore the numbers because he's only four months older than Blake Rutherford, one of the top high school players in this year's draft class. I think Albies will be fine in time, and if a mediocre stint in Triple-A this year means Atlanta doesn't rush him to the majors over the summer, that might be better for everyone involved.



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18. Willson Contreras, C
Chicago Cubs
Previous rank: 27
Current level: Triple-A


Since the start of 2014, Contreras has hit .332/.415/.478 between Double- and Triple-A while throwing out 29 percent of opposing runners. He's a very athletic catcher but is considered a poor framer, though that seems to be a skill that can be improved, at least sometimes, with good coaching. I think teams would live with some below-average framing if they're getting a star-caliber bat behind the plate.



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19. Kevin Newman, SS
Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous rank: 23
Current level: High-A


Newman was the No. 2 prospect on my draft board in June, and though I have him fifth among prospects from that class currently in the minors, he still looks like a heck of a pick at No. 19 overall. He is hitting .357/.421/.450 with just 10 strikeouts so far in high-A and should spend the second half at Double-A Altoona.
 

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20. Jameson Taillon, RHP
Pittsburgh Pirates
Previous rank: NR
Current level: Triple-A


Welcome back: After missing two years following Tommy John surgery and a hernia injury, Taillon isn't just back and healthy. He's also showing outstanding control, having walked just five of 188 batters and thrown two-thirds of his pitches for strikes so far this season. As a true three-pitch guy, he could end up a top-of-the-rotation candidate if this precision holds when he reaches the majors next month.



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21. Victor Robles, CF
Washington Nationals
Previous rank: 49
Current level: Low-A


The Nats' centerfielder of the future hit .352/.445/.507 in short-season ball last year, moved to the full-season Sally League this year and is hitting .336/.429/.504 at age 19. He hasn't come into much power yet, but if he does, he'll end up a top-10 prospect, as the other tools are all there.



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22. Anderson Espinoza, RHP
Boston Red Sox
Previous rank: 38
Current level: Low-A


Espinoza hasn't dominated low-A this year, besides an 11-strikeout, five-inning outing, but that's OK because he's 18 years old and the youngest pitcher in the Sally League. (Second-youngest? His teammate, Nicaraguan right-hander Roniel Raudes.) Espinoza will flash three above-average pitches, and his delivery works well, but the Venezuelan prodigy is still somewhat raw, as you would expect of a kid the age of a typical high school senior.



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23. Amed Rosario, SS
New York Mets
Previous rank: 42
Current level: High-A


Rosario is repeating high-A, so take his numbers with a small grain of salt, but the electric bat speed has produced more power this year, and he has improved his plate discipline. He should be in Double-A Binghamton before the month is out, at which point we'll get a better read on whether he's turning into the superstar the Mets thought he'd be when they gave him $1.75 million in 2012.



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24. Cody Reed, LHP
Cincinnati Reds
Previous rank: 54
Current level: Triple-A


Brandon Finnegan and John Lamb are already in the majors, but Reed, a big, strike-throwing lefty with a great changeup, is going to be the best part of the package the Reds received for Johnny Cueto. With the Reds' rotation a bit of a mess right now, it seems Reed will get an opportunity soon, especially considering he has been dominant in Triple-A and has been crushing right-handed hitters.



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25. Jorge Mateo, SS/2B
New York Yankees
Previous rank: 55
Current level: High-A


Mateo's line this year is a little fluky -- .388 BABIP and more home runs (5) than he had in all of 2015 (2) -- but he certainly can hit and run, which, as long as he's at shortstop, makes him a future above-average regular with a chance to develop into a star.

Honorable mentions

Manuel Margot, CF, San Diego Padres (25)
Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros (67)
Franklin Barreto, SS, Oakland Athletics (22)
Braden Shipley, RHP, Arizona Diamondbacks (24)
A.J. Reed, 1B, Houston Astros
 

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Projecting group advancement, title odds for all 16 Copa America teams



The Copa America Centenario begins on Friday, as the host United States faces Colombia in the opening game of this one-off tournament that commemorates the inaugural South American championship in 1916.

The field features all 10 CONMEBOL teams plus six CONCACAF teams, divided into a quartet of four-team groups, with the top two from each group advancing to the knockout stage.

According to ESPN's Soccer Power Index, three of the groups have clear-cut favorites to advance, but the United States' group is the exception. SPI also sees two definitive title favorites, with a third choice that differs from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook odds.

Here's a group-by-group projection, including team-by-team analysis, along with a look at the teams most likely to lift the trophy at MetLife Stadium on June 26.

Group A - Colombia, Costa Rica, Paraguay, U.S.
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This is the most difficult group top to bottom, with the highest average SPI rank at 24.25. The highest average rank by another group is 32.75 (for both Groups C and D). That's because Group A drew the best teams from pots three (Paraguay) and four (Costa Rica).

Coming in at No. 8 in the Soccer Power Index rankings, Colombia is SPI's favorite to advance from Group A at 68 percent, by far the lowest of any group favorite. James Rodriguez gets the headlines, but look out for the attacking duo of Edwin Cardona and Carlos Bacca.

Cardona, coming off a Liga MX final appearance with Monterrey, is tied for sixth with 16 goals over the past two Liga MX seasons, and he leads Colombia with 10 chances created so far in World Cup qualifying. Bacca was third in Serie A with 18 goals for AC Milan this season, after 34 goals in the previous two La Liga seasons with Sevilla. They combined for five of Colombia's nine goals in qualifying thus far.

Despite being SPI's lowest-ranked team in the group, the United States is the second favorite to advance from Group A at 57 percent, thanks to home-field advantage. The U.S. comes in on a four-game win streak, having won six of seven games in 2016 by a combined score of 16-5.

The score lines may have flattered the U.S. this year; the Americans have scored 4.5 goals above their expected total so far. Then again, they may have gotten unlucky defensively, allowing 2.5 goals more than expected.

Michael Bradley is arguably the best American player, particularly when he sits deep in a holding midfielder role. He has created 13 chances this year, seven more than any teammate. He has also completed 433 passes, 231 more than any teammate, at a team-high rate of 71 per 90 minutes.

At 39 percent to advance, Paraguay is narrowly ahead of Costa Rica (36 percent). Known for its defense, Paraguay has allowed only six goals in six World Cup qualifiers this cycle, but has taken a CONMEBOL-low 68 shots so far. However, Paraguay is fifth in expected goals and has taken the third-best shots in CONMEBOL, averaging 0.12 goals per shot.

Costa Rica have 12 of 23 players returning from their 2014 World Cup quarterfinal run, including keeper Keylor Navas, who just won the Champions League title with Real Madrid. Navas led the competition by allowing 5.6 goals fewer than expected this season. He did the same at the 2014 World Cup, allowing 4.1 fewer goals than expected.

Group B - Brazil, Ecuador, Haiti, Peru
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Unsurprisingly, Brazil is the heavy favorite to advance from Group B at 90 percent, and a 65 percent favorite to win the group. Brazil has the highest offensive rating of the teams in the tournament, projected to score 2.7 goals against an average team on a neutral field.

Chelsea's Willian has been Brazil's most dangerous attacker in qualifying, sharing the team lead with two goals and ranking first in chances created from both a total (15) and per-90-minute (2.5) standpoint.

Sitting second in CONMEBOL qualifying and trailing Uruguay only on goal difference, Ecuador has never won Copa America but is the clear second choice in the group with a 66 percent chance to advance, double that of third-best Peru.

Ecuador has played differently depending on the venue in qualifying, so these neutral-field games should be interesting. At home, Ecuador has had 67 percent possession and averaged 23 shots per game, compared to 45 percent possession and eight shots per game on the road.

Peru has one win from six World Cup qualifiers, and that was 1-0 at home against Paraguay. Familiar names Claudio Pizarro and Jefferson Farfan were left off the roster for reasons rumored but not entirely known. Farfan had been Peru's creative force in qualifying, ranking second in CONMEBOL with 3.6 chances created per 90 minutes (minimum three games).

Haiti's 11 percent projection to advance is the second lowest in the tournament, and its SPI ranking of 80th is the worst of the 16 teams, as is its offensive rating of 0.85.

Group C - Jamaica, Mexico, Uruguay, Venezuela
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Group C features the biggest gap in SPI projections between the top two teams and the bottom two teams. Uruguay and Mexico are both over 80 percent to advance, with Jamaica and Venezuela both under 20 percent.

Uruguay currently leads CONMEBOL qualifying behind a Diego Godin-inspired defense that has the second-best rating of any team in this tournament.

You know about Luis Suarez and his 59 goals for Barcelona this season. You may not know about Monterrey's Carlos Sanchez, who plays primarily on the right wing and leads all of CONMEBOL qualifying with 20 chances created in six games.

Mexico does not get a home-field SPI bump for this tournament, though one could argue that El Tri deserves it, given how the team draws for its matches in the United States.

Ranked 10th in SPI, Mexico is the highest CONCACAF team and the fifth highest in the tournament overall. El Tri is the only team yet to concede through four games in the semifinal round of CONCACAF World Cup qualifying.

PSV's Andres Guardado has been Mexico's top threat in qualifying, leading the team in touches and passes completed, along with two goals and a team-best 10 chances created.

Jamaica looked good making a run to the Gold Cup final last year, but the Reggae Boyz have struggled in the semifinal round of qualifying, getting only one point from two home games. Jamaica's offensive and defensive ratings are both in the bottom four among Copa America teams.

Venezuela is the only CONMEBOL team never to qualify for a World Cup and is one of two (along with Ecuador) never to win Copa America. That probably won't change this year, as Venezuela has the second-worst defensive rating in the tournament, thanks to allowing a competition-high 17 goals in six CONMEBOL qualifiers thus far.

Group D - Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, Panama
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Helped by road qualifying wins over Colombia and Chile, Argentina is ranked first in the world by SPI and is the top favorite to advance at 90.2 percent.

Though Argentina is understandably known for its potent offense that includes Lionel Messi, Gonzalo Higuain and Sergio Aguero, the defense may be the key to success. Argentina's defensive rating of 0.36 is the best in the tournament, and its 4.1 expected goals against in qualifying are more than a goal better than any other team.

Argentina hasn't won a major trophy since 1993 Copa America. The second favorite in the group, Chile, at 78 percent to advance, is coming off its first major title at last year's Copa America.

Chile's offense is rated slightly better than Argentina's, trailing only Brazil in this 16-team field. Alexis Sanchez, Arturo Vidal and Eduardo Vargas each have three qualifying goals so far; Chile has racked up the most expected goals in CONMEBOL qualifying (9.5).

Panama is in good position to reach the CONCACAF World Cup qualifying Hex, needing only a home win over Jamaica in September, but it has only a 21 percent chance to advance at Copa America. Panama's defensive rating of 0.85 isn't bad, ranking eighth in the tournament, but its offensive rating of 1.1 is the fifth worst.

The only reason Panama's odds are as good as 21 percent is because Bolivia is SPI's worst CONMEBOL team, ranked 69th in the world. Bolivia is next to last in CONMEBOL qualifying, and its only win was against last-place Venezuela.

Bolivia's problem is defense; its rating of 1.7 is the worst in the tournament by two-tenths of a goal.
 

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Title favorites
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Not surprisingly, Argentina (24 percent) and Brazil (22 percent) are the two biggest title favorites, according to SPI.

Those are the same two favorites the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook has, though SPI has the teams much closer than Vegas, which makes Argentina a 2-1 favorite and Brazil next at 7-2.

The big advantage each has is that if both win their groups, they wouldn't face each other until the final.

Uruguay is SPI's third favorite to win the Copa title at 14 percent. That's drastically different from Westgate, which has Uruguay as the joint-sixth favorite with Mexico at 10-1. So if you're looking for SPI value, there's your choice.

The key for both Uruguay and Mexico will be winning Group C, since the group runner-up will play the Group D winner (likely Argentina) in the quarterfinals.

Even playing at home, the United States is given only a 5 percent title chance by SPI, which sees a probable matchup with Brazil in the quarterfinals, if the U.S. advances as group runner-up.

Westgate is more optimistic, making the U.S. the co-third favorite with Chile at 7-1. But that's probably more of a commentary on the number of people who bet on the U.S. in Vegas, rather than the Americans' chances. The U.S. odds tend to be higher overseas, ranging primarily from 8-1 to 10-1.
 

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Top performers from Nike EYBL Session 4 in Georgia

Suwannee, GA -- Session 4 of the Nike EYBL descended on North Georgia. Here are five front line players that separated themselves from an extremely deep talent pool.

1. C DeAndre Ayton
Class of 2017, 7-1, 235
ESPN 60 rank: 1
Player comparison:
Combination of Tim Duncan (San Antonio Spurs) and Ed Davis (Portland Trail Blazers)
Ayton has seemingly never-ending length and a terrific skill set for a player of his size. When you factor in his ability to rebound and block shots, he is a potential first team All-American and one-and-done candidate The five-star center scores in the post with either hand and has an excellent turnaround jumper and hook over his left shoulder. Ayton is a good and willing passer when he draws double coverage as well. He will need to remember to keep his motor running in high gear on every possession and be more conscious to start the game with more of an inside-out approach but his talent, skill and feel are simply in the advance stages. Arizona, Kentucky, Kansas, Duke, Maryland and UCLA will battle it out for this front-line difference-maker.

2. PF/C Wendell Carter Jr.
Class of 2017, 6-10, 260
ESPN 60 rank: 2
Player comparison:
Combination of Al Jefferson (Charlotte Hornets) and Marreese Speights (Golden State Warriors)
When it comes to creating match-up problems, Carter seems unsolvable. He rebounds with power and is a threat to take it coast to coast. Carter can score with his back to the basket with great touch and body control. He flawlessly faces and hits open jumpers to 15 feet in addition to attacking the glass and blocking shots. Carter has lost about 10-15 pounds, so his weight is down and his production is up. Carter will be a scouting report nightmare on the major college level. Duke, Kentucky, Georgia, Georgia Tech, Harvard and California all are working around the clock to land him.

3. SF Michael Porter Jr.
Class of 2017, 6-9, 210
ESPN 60 rank: 3
Player comparison:
Paul George (Indiana Pacers)
Porter is the perfect picture of basketball versatility. He is long, skilled, smooth and efficient. In the post he scores over smaller defenders, and on the perimeter, he knocks down jumpers off the catch or rhythm dribble with range to the arc. Porter also slashes in between multiple defenders and finishes above the rim with power and explosiveness. His talent level is special and he simply makes difficult moves look easy. Porter will need to maintain his aggressiveness throughout the game and continue to add strength to a body which is still developing. His father, Micheal Porter Sr., recently joined the coaching staff at Washington where his brother Jontay has already committed. Huskies head coach Lorenzo Romar is feeling pretty good about the possibility of Michael Jr. coming to Seattle, but Missouri, Oklahoma, Virginia and Indiana are also in the running.

4. C/PF Brandon McCoy
Class of 2017, 7-0, 220
ESPN 60 rank: 9
Player comparison:
Adreian Payne (Minnesota Timberwolves) and Brandan Wright (Memphis Grizzlies)
McCoy is simply overflowing with talent and potential. He is extra-long and very skilled. He can also rebound and blocks shots at an extremely high level. McCoy is an efficient scorer inside and out and competes on both ends of the floor. He also does a great job of getting his team extra possessions when he attacks the offensive glass. McCoy will need to be more consistent and display more patience when working in the low post, but all the skills are there. McCoy says Arizona is working extremely hard along with Michigan State and Wake Forest. UCLA is a constant presence and North Carolina recently offered.

5. C/PF Nick Richards
Class of 2017, 6-11, 245
ESPN 60 rank: 12
Player comparison
: Derrick Favors (Utah Jazz)
Richards rebounds and blocks shots as well or better than any prospect in the country regardless of class. He has great physical gifts and is a powerful finisher above the rim. The Kingston, Jamaica, native runs the floor like a deer and always makes his presence felt around the rim. He will need to continue to develop his scoring package and finish better in heavy traffic, but everything else is in place and just simply needs a little polish. Richards offer list currently includes Kentucky, Arizona, Syracuse, Connecticut, Indiana and Seton Hall.

Bonus: PF Marvin Bagley III
Class of 2018, 6-11, 220
ESPN 25 rank: 1
Player comparison:
Chris Bosh (Miami Heat)
This long and lean lefty has great versatility. His feel, skill and touch are simply special. He runs the floor with long strides and scores in the paint with great familiarity. Bagley spots up on the break, and within the half-court offense, where he displaysthe ability to hit the open jumper with range to the arc. Bagley rebounds with two hands at rim level and is a threat to go coast to coast and deliver a highlight finish.

Although super-talented, Bagley will have to add strength and not get caught watching the action. He says he will look to reveal an updated school list either before or after the Peach Jam in early July.
 
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