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Ford's Mock Draft 9.2: New top 3, new lottery picks
This post was updated Wednesday afternoon (3 p.m. ET) to reflect our latest draft intel and the Jazz reportedly trading the No. 12 pick to the Hawks.
The NBA draft is just days away, and teams are making decisions about which players to take.
Our latest mock draft is based on my conversations with NBA scouts and general managers over the past few days.
1. Philadelphia 76ers
Ben Simmons
LSU
Freshman
Forward
The Sixers have had vigorous internal debates about Simmons versus Brandon Ingram. Kris Dunn has also entered the discussion at times.
While Dunn and Ingram fulfill bigger needs for the Sixers, they keep coming back to this same point in discussions: When it comes to sheer talent and upside, Simmons is hands down the best prospect in the draft.
While the team has concerns about Simmons, it will be very hard to pass on him, especially when head coach Brett Brown thinks he can find a way to deploy him as the team's point guard.
Simmons playing the 1 is the best chance of greatness -- for him and Philly.
Video: Prospect breakdown
2. Los Angeles Lakers
Brandon Ingram
Duke
Freshman
Forward
There has been talk of the Lakers flirting with Marquese Chriss and Jaylen Brown at No. 2. But I think that talk more accurately reflects their attempt to get another pick in the top five.
If they stay at No. 2, it will be Ingram or Simmons -- whichever guy falls here. Ingram is a perfect fit on the current Lakers roster, and after Simmons, I think he has the most upside.
Video: Prospect breakdown
3. Boston Celtics (via Nets)
Kris Dunn
Providence
Junior
Guard
The draft really starts to get interesting at No. 3, and Boston has everyone on edge.
The Celtics continue to explore every option. While the ideal scenario has them packaging this pick along with other assets and landing a superstar, so far they are coming up empty. That's not to say they won't get a deal. Teams tend to get more serious in trade talks 72 hours before the draft. As of right now, the Celtics don't have a deal they like.
2016 NBA draft
Get ready for Ben Simmons, Brandon Ingram and the 2016 draft, with analysis from Chad Ford and other ESPN experts.
If they keep the pick, I think it's safe to say the Celtics have it down to four (or maybe five) options -- Brown, Dunn, Chriss and Jamal Murray. Dragan Bender, who works out for the Celtics on Tuesday, might have a shot as well.
Brown and Chriss are the upside picks. Both are tempting to the Celtics for what they could eventually become. They are elite athletes who are still figuring out their game.
Dunn and Murray are ready to contribute immediately. While Dunn doesn't necessarily fit a need, he would right away be the best point guard they've had on the roster since Rajon Rondo. Murray's shooting makes him an ideal fit, though his defensive issues give Boston pause.
We had Brown here on our last mock and he's still a very strong contender. He has one of the highest ceilings of any player in this draft. If he hits that ceiling, the Celtics would finally have their star. However, Dunn's ability to help right now combined with his trade value around the league -- most of the teams trying to trade up are hoping to grab Dunn -- give him the edge.
Video: Prospect breakdown
4. Phoenix Suns
Marquese Chriss
Washington
Freshman
Forward
The Suns have a glaring hole at the 4 after trading Markieff Morris. They need someone who can really stretch the floor from that position and have two terrific options in Chriss and Bender. Bender is a better rebounder and a better shooter. Chriss is a much better athlete and has a higher ceiling.
Given how strong the West is and how far the Suns have to go, I think Phoenix can wait on Chriss to develop and hope his career path follows another famous Sun: Shawn Marion.
Video: Prospect breakdown
5. Minnesota Timberwolves
Jamal Murray
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard
The Wolves continue to explore both moving up in the draft and moving out altogether if they could land a veteran like Jimmy Butler to help the team make the playoffs this year. If they keep the pick, they seem to have four players strongly in the mix at No. 5: Dunn, Murray, Brown and Bender.
Murray and Bender fit obvious needs for shooting. Dunn and Brown give the defensive toughness head coach Tom Thibodeau loves. If Dunn is there, I think he is the choice for the Wolves. However, if he's off the board, Murray's shooting and ability to play both the 1 and the 2 give them a versatile, go-to scorer to put alongside Ricky Rubio and Zach LaVine.
6. New Orleans Pelicans
Jaylen Brown
Cal
Freshman
Forward
The Pelicans are also out there trying to get a veteran for this pick. However, they too are having a hard time finding takers. They need guards badly. Eric Gordon is a free agent. Jrue Holiday is in the last year of his deal and has struggled to stay healthy. Murray, Dunn and Buddy Hield will all be intriguing.
Dunn's point guard abilities are coveted by head coach Alvin Gentry. Both Murray and Hield can come in and improve the team's shooting from day one. However, in this scenario with both Dunn and Murray off the board, Brown becomes another intriguing prospect. The team ranked 28th in the league in defense last year and Brown's defensive abilities surpass those of both Murray and Hield. If he can figure out his jump shot, he has some star potential.
Video: Prospect breakdown
7. Denver Nuggets
Dragan Bender
Croatia
Age: 18
Forward/center
It sounds as if the Nuggets are content to take whomever falls to them at No. 7. In my draft tiers column on Friday, Tiers 1-3 consisted of seven players. Really, any of five players -- Murray, Dunn, Brown, Chriss and Bender -- could be here. It's that fluid.
So the Nuggets just grab the last available guy. If it's Bender, he's a steal at No. 7. He's not an ideal fit given the Nuggets' current personnel, but you just don't pass on his talent at No. 7.
Video: Prospect breakdown
8. Sacramento Kings
Buddy Hield
Oklahoma
Senior
Guard
The Kings are praying Hield falls to them at No. 8. He has been on Vlade Divac and owner Vivek Ranadive's radar for months and is exactly the sort of player they need -- both as a shooter and as a high-character player who is focused on winning.
If Hield isn't here, Murray or Dunn would be great fits as well. The dark horse here is Domantas Sabonis. I hear the Kings are very high on him.
9. Toronto Raptors (via Knicks)
Domantas Sabonis
Gonzaga
Sophomore
Forward
Power forward is Toronto's biggest need and the choice probably will come down to Sabonis, Henry Ellenson, Skal Labissiere and Deyonta Davis. You can make an argument for all four.
Labissiere is the best shooter and has the highest ceiling (but also the lowest floor). Ellenson gives you a lot more skill but without the same elite athleticism. Davis is a freak athletically, but the furthest behind offensively.
Sabonis hits the sweet spot for the Raptors. He's strong, tough, ready to play now and the most skilled of the four. He isn't a great athlete, but that's the only real thing holding him back.
10. Milwaukee Bucks
Dejounte Murray
Washington
Freshman
Guard
The Bucks really need shooting, but there isn't a wing in this range who makes sense. Jakob Poeltl fits another need. He's a big center who moves well without the ball and would immediately be a defensive upgrade over Greg Monroe.
However, the Bucks have never been afraid to roll the dice and Murray's upside, combined with Jason Kidd's waning patience with Michael Carter-Williams, makes him a great pick here. Based on talent, he has top-five upside.
11. Orlando Magic
Skal Labissiere
Kentucky
Freshman
Forward/center
Labissiere has been at this position in our mock for a while. I think this is the point in the draft where reward starts to outweigh risk for many players.
Labissiere is a terrific shot-blocker and has the ability to stretch the floor. He'd be perfect next to Nikola Vucevic, but the Magic would have to be patient with him.
12. Atlanta Hawks
Jakob Poeltl
Utah
Sophomore
Center
The Hawks get this pick from the Jazz as part of the reported three-way deal that will send Jeff Teague to Indiana and George Hill to Utah.
The Hawks have several needs, but a big one is at center. Poeltl is our top-rated center on the board and should be a good fit in Atlanta. He's a skilled rebounder who can block shots and he's mobile enough to run the floor.
13. Phoenix Suns (via Wizards)
Henry Ellenson
Marquette
Freshman
Forward/center
We had the Suns drafting a stretch-4 with their first pick. Why a second?
A source in Phoenix told me they believe Chriss might end up being a 3 in the NBA someday given his elite physical tools. Putting Ellenson on the floor next to him at the 4 (and he also can play the 5) gives the Suns another versatile option. Ellenson would certainly be a steal at this position in the draft.
14. Chicago Bulls
Wade Baldwin IV
Vanderbilt
Sophomore
Guard
The Bulls could go in a number of directions. They need help pretty much everywhere. Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol could leave in free agency. Derrick Rose could get moved in a trade.
Baldwin would give the Bulls a versatile guard who can play two positions, defend and shoot the ball. I'm not sure he's a point guard, but he sees the floor well enough to play that position in the pros.
15. Denver Nuggets (via Rockets)
Furkan Korkmaz
Turkey
Age: 18
Shooting guard
I don't see the Nuggets keeping all three of their picks. If they do, you can expect that at least one of them -- and possibly two -- will be draft-and-stash prospects.
Korkmaz is a major talent who is probably ready to play now, but could also use another year in Turkey. His shooting ability is especially attractive to teams.
Jamal Murray
Kentucky
Freshman
Guard
The Wolves continue to explore both moving up in the draft and moving out altogether if they could land a veteran like Jimmy Butler to help the team make the playoffs this year. If they keep the pick, they seem to have four players strongly in the mix at No. 5: Dunn, Murray, Brown and Bender.
Murray and Bender fit obvious needs for shooting. Dunn and Brown give the defensive toughness head coach Tom Thibodeau loves. If Dunn is there, I think he is the choice for the Wolves. However, if he's off the board, Murray's shooting and ability to play both the 1 and the 2 give them a versatile, go-to scorer to put alongside Ricky Rubio and Zach LaVine.
6. New Orleans Pelicans
Jaylen Brown
Cal
Freshman
Forward
The Pelicans are also out there trying to get a veteran for this pick. However, they too are having a hard time finding takers. They need guards badly. Eric Gordon is a free agent. Jrue Holiday is in the last year of his deal and has struggled to stay healthy. Murray, Dunn and Buddy Hield will all be intriguing.
Dunn's point guard abilities are coveted by head coach Alvin Gentry. Both Murray and Hield can come in and improve the team's shooting from day one. However, in this scenario with both Dunn and Murray off the board, Brown becomes another intriguing prospect. The team ranked 28th in the league in defense last year and Brown's defensive abilities surpass those of both Murray and Hield. If he can figure out his jump shot, he has some star potential.
Video: Prospect breakdown
7. Denver Nuggets
Dragan Bender
Croatia
Age: 18
Forward/center
It sounds as if the Nuggets are content to take whomever falls to them at No. 7. In my draft tiers column on Friday, Tiers 1-3 consisted of seven players. Really, any of five players -- Murray, Dunn, Brown, Chriss and Bender -- could be here. It's that fluid.
So the Nuggets just grab the last available guy. If it's Bender, he's a steal at No. 7. He's not an ideal fit given the Nuggets' current personnel, but you just don't pass on his talent at No. 7.
Video: Prospect breakdown
8. Sacramento Kings
Buddy Hield
Oklahoma
Senior
Guard
The Kings are praying Hield falls to them at No. 8. He has been on Vlade Divac and owner Vivek Ranadive's radar for months and is exactly the sort of player they need -- both as a shooter and as a high-character player who is focused on winning.
If Hield isn't here, Murray or Dunn would be great fits as well. The dark horse here is Domantas Sabonis. I hear the Kings are very high on him.
9. Toronto Raptors (via Knicks)
Domantas Sabonis
Gonzaga
Sophomore
Forward
Power forward is Toronto's biggest need and the choice probably will come down to Sabonis, Henry Ellenson, Skal Labissiere and Deyonta Davis. You can make an argument for all four.
Labissiere is the best shooter and has the highest ceiling (but also the lowest floor). Ellenson gives you a lot more skill but without the same elite athleticism. Davis is a freak athletically, but the furthest behind offensively.
Sabonis hits the sweet spot for the Raptors. He's strong, tough, ready to play now and the most skilled of the four. He isn't a great athlete, but that's the only real thing holding him back.
10. Milwaukee Bucks
Dejounte Murray
Washington
Freshman
Guard
The Bucks really need shooting, but there isn't a wing in this range who makes sense. Jakob Poeltl fits another need. He's a big center who moves well without the ball and would immediately be a defensive upgrade over Greg Monroe.
However, the Bucks have never been afraid to roll the dice and Murray's upside, combined with Jason Kidd's waning patience with Michael Carter-Williams, makes him a great pick here. Based on talent, he has top-five upside.
11. Orlando Magic
Skal Labissiere
Kentucky
Freshman
Forward/center
Labissiere has been at this position in our mock for a while. I think this is the point in the draft where reward starts to outweigh risk for many players.
Labissiere is a terrific shot-blocker and has the ability to stretch the floor. He'd be perfect next to Nikola Vucevic, but the Magic would have to be patient with him.
12. Atlanta Hawks
Jakob Poeltl
Utah
Sophomore
Center
The Hawks get this pick from the Jazz as part of the reported three-way deal that will send Jeff Teague to Indiana and George Hill to Utah.
The Hawks have several needs, but a big one is at center. Poeltl is our top-rated center on the board and should be a good fit in Atlanta. He's a skilled rebounder who can block shots and he's mobile enough to run the floor.
13. Phoenix Suns (via Wizards)
Henry Ellenson
Marquette
Freshman
Forward/center
We had the Suns drafting a stretch-4 with their first pick. Why a second?
A source in Phoenix told me they believe Chriss might end up being a 3 in the NBA someday given his elite physical tools. Putting Ellenson on the floor next to him at the 4 (and he also can play the 5) gives the Suns another versatile option. Ellenson would certainly be a steal at this position in the draft.
14. Chicago Bulls
Wade Baldwin IV
Vanderbilt
Sophomore
Guard
The Bulls could go in a number of directions. They need help pretty much everywhere. Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol could leave in free agency. Derrick Rose could get moved in a trade.
Baldwin would give the Bulls a versatile guard who can play two positions, defend and shoot the ball. I'm not sure he's a point guard, but he sees the floor well enough to play that position in the pros.
15. Denver Nuggets (via Rockets)
Furkan Korkmaz
Turkey
Age: 18
Shooting guard
I don't see the Nuggets keeping all three of their picks. If they do, you can expect that at least one of them -- and possibly two -- will be draft-and-stash prospects.
Korkmaz is a major talent who is probably ready to play now, but could also use another year in Turkey. His shooting ability is especially attractive to teams.
16. Boston Celtics (via Mavericks)
Deyonta Davis
Michigan State
Freshman
Forward
The Celtics will be intrigued by several of the international prospects on the board. They definitely don't want to keep all their draft picks, but I think they'll have a hard time passing on Davis if he's on the board.
He has some elite physical tools and could become a terrific defender. The Celtics will have to be patient with him, but he's great value here.
17. Memphis Grizzlies
Malachi Richardson
Syracuse
Freshman
Guard
With a 7-foot wingspan, the ability to shoot the 3 and a quick first step that gets him to the rim, Richardson is a very intriguing prospect with plenty of upside.
He has been shooting the ball well in workouts. He's an upside pick, but if he hits his potential he has some special abilities. Also look out for Euro big man Ivica Zubac here. The Grizzlies are high on him as well.
18. Detroit Pistons
Thon Maker
Australia
Age: 19
Forward
Denzel Valentine seems like an obvious fit in Detroit, but concerns about the long-term health of his knees are giving some teams pause. If the Pistons pass on him at 18, then you'll know the concerns were significant, as they really like him.
Maker is trending in the opposite direction. He's nowhere near ready to play in the NBA, but his upside is so intriguing and he's a very good long-term fit in Detroit next to Andre Drummond. If the Pistons are patient, Maker could pay off big-time.
19. Denver Nuggets (via Blazers)
Ante Zizic
Croatia
Age: 19
Center
An all-international draft for the Nuggets! Makes sense given the success they've had lately with international prospects.
Zizic wouldn't really fill a need. But he's a talent -- an elite rebounder with an NBA body and great motor. I doubt the Nuggets bring him over right away -- I'm not even sure that they'd keep him -- but he's a terrific addition here.
20. Indiana Pacers
Juan Hernangomez
Spain
Age: 20
Forward
The Pacers need help at point guard and power forward.
There aren't any real great point guard prospects left on the board. Hernangomez has really impressed in workouts to the point that I think he has moved into the teens on many draft boards. Teams want stretch-4s and his ability to step in and play right now is a big plus.
21. Atlanta Hawks
DeAndre Bembry
St. Joseph's
Junior
Forward
Bembry has the skill set that the Hawks always covet. He's a terrific passer, plays an old-school style of basketball and has the athleticism to defend multiple positions.
With Kent Bazemore hitting free agency, Bembry provides a nice insurance policy.
22. Charlotte Hornets
Denzel Valentine
Michigan State
Senior
Forward/guard
Valentine is sliding down draft boards over concerns that his knees may not be able to hold up over the long haul. Some teams are very concerned. Others, not so much.
The Hornets love the talent and he's a great fit with the way they want to play. His shooting and passing abilities at the guard position are very attractive. Will they be willing to take the risk?
23. Boston Celtics
Cheick Diallo
Kansas
Freshman
Forward
Diallo didn't really do much at Kansas last season, but that won't stop a team like the Celtics from grabbing him -- especially after his strong play at the NBA combine.
He is tough and athletic, and he might have the best motor in the draft. He's raw. But had he stayed in school another season, he probably would have been a lottery pick next year. That makes him good value here and potentially a starter on the Maine Red Claws.
24. Philadelphia 76ers (via Heat)
Malik Beasley
Florida State
Freshman
Guard
The Sixers need shooting in the worst way and Beasley would be a steal at this point in the draft.
A stress fracture suffered before the season began at Florida State has hurt his draft position, but he's an elite athlete with deep range on his jumper. He's a very good fit.
Video: Prospect breakdown
25. Los Angeles Clippers
Ivica Zubac
Bosnia
Age: 19
Center
The Clippers are in win-now mode and the No. 25 pick is probably not going to help with that.
Zubac has significant upside down the road. He's a skilled offensive player. Look for the Clippers to keep him in Europe and let him develop there.
Deyonta Davis
Michigan State
Freshman
Forward
The Celtics will be intrigued by several of the international prospects on the board. They definitely don't want to keep all their draft picks, but I think they'll have a hard time passing on Davis if he's on the board.
He has some elite physical tools and could become a terrific defender. The Celtics will have to be patient with him, but he's great value here.
17. Memphis Grizzlies
Malachi Richardson
Syracuse
Freshman
Guard
With a 7-foot wingspan, the ability to shoot the 3 and a quick first step that gets him to the rim, Richardson is a very intriguing prospect with plenty of upside.
He has been shooting the ball well in workouts. He's an upside pick, but if he hits his potential he has some special abilities. Also look out for Euro big man Ivica Zubac here. The Grizzlies are high on him as well.
18. Detroit Pistons
Thon Maker
Australia
Age: 19
Forward
Denzel Valentine seems like an obvious fit in Detroit, but concerns about the long-term health of his knees are giving some teams pause. If the Pistons pass on him at 18, then you'll know the concerns were significant, as they really like him.
Maker is trending in the opposite direction. He's nowhere near ready to play in the NBA, but his upside is so intriguing and he's a very good long-term fit in Detroit next to Andre Drummond. If the Pistons are patient, Maker could pay off big-time.
19. Denver Nuggets (via Blazers)
Ante Zizic
Croatia
Age: 19
Center
An all-international draft for the Nuggets! Makes sense given the success they've had lately with international prospects.
Zizic wouldn't really fill a need. But he's a talent -- an elite rebounder with an NBA body and great motor. I doubt the Nuggets bring him over right away -- I'm not even sure that they'd keep him -- but he's a terrific addition here.
20. Indiana Pacers
Juan Hernangomez
Spain
Age: 20
Forward
The Pacers need help at point guard and power forward.
There aren't any real great point guard prospects left on the board. Hernangomez has really impressed in workouts to the point that I think he has moved into the teens on many draft boards. Teams want stretch-4s and his ability to step in and play right now is a big plus.
21. Atlanta Hawks
DeAndre Bembry
St. Joseph's
Junior
Forward
Bembry has the skill set that the Hawks always covet. He's a terrific passer, plays an old-school style of basketball and has the athleticism to defend multiple positions.
With Kent Bazemore hitting free agency, Bembry provides a nice insurance policy.
22. Charlotte Hornets
Denzel Valentine
Michigan State
Senior
Forward/guard
Valentine is sliding down draft boards over concerns that his knees may not be able to hold up over the long haul. Some teams are very concerned. Others, not so much.
The Hornets love the talent and he's a great fit with the way they want to play. His shooting and passing abilities at the guard position are very attractive. Will they be willing to take the risk?
23. Boston Celtics
Cheick Diallo
Kansas
Freshman
Forward
Diallo didn't really do much at Kansas last season, but that won't stop a team like the Celtics from grabbing him -- especially after his strong play at the NBA combine.
He is tough and athletic, and he might have the best motor in the draft. He's raw. But had he stayed in school another season, he probably would have been a lottery pick next year. That makes him good value here and potentially a starter on the Maine Red Claws.
24. Philadelphia 76ers (via Heat)
Malik Beasley
Florida State
Freshman
Guard
The Sixers need shooting in the worst way and Beasley would be a steal at this point in the draft.
A stress fracture suffered before the season began at Florida State has hurt his draft position, but he's an elite athlete with deep range on his jumper. He's a very good fit.
Video: Prospect breakdown
25. Los Angeles Clippers
Ivica Zubac
Bosnia
Age: 19
Center
The Clippers are in win-now mode and the No. 25 pick is probably not going to help with that.
Zubac has significant upside down the road. He's a skilled offensive player. Look for the Clippers to keep him in Europe and let him develop there.
26. Philadelphia 76ers (via Thunder)
Patrick McCaw
UNLV
Sophomore
Guard
The 76ers need wings, and after McCaw's performance at the combine I think he has a shot at going here.
He's not only a good athlete who can defend multiple positions, but he's also a terrific passer and an emerging shooter.
27. Toronto Raptors
Guerschon Yabusele
France
Age: 19
Forward
Yabusele is built like a brick house. He's one of the strongest players in the draft, but he's also skilled. He moves well despite his size and has a shot that goes all the way out to the 3-point line.
The Raptors love toughness and Yabusele brings that. And given the fact that this is the Raptors' second first-round pick, a draft-and-stash type player like Yabusele makes some sense.
28. Phoenix Suns (via Cavaliers)
Timothe Luwawu
France
Age: 21
Forward
The Suns have three picks this draft. They won't want to have all three in the NBA and keeping Luwawu in Europe should help his development.
Luwawu is a very good athlete and has the potential to be a lockdown defender in the NBA who can guard multiple positions. His offense is still a work in progress. If he ever improves his jump shot, he's got a real chance to be a good 3-and-D player in the NBA.
29. San Antonio Spurs
Demetrius Jackson
Notre Dame
Junior
Guard
Tony Parker is starting to age and Patty Mills is just solid as a backup.
While Jackson would probably come off the bench at this stage of his career as well, he has all the physical tools to be a good point guard down the road and would fit well into the Spurs' culture.
Video: Prospect breakdown
30. Golden State Warriors
Damian Jones
Vanderbilt
Junior
Center
Two of the Warriors' true centers -- Anderson Varejao and Festus Ezeli -- are free agents this summer. There should be room on the roster for a player like Jones, who not only is an elite athlete but can also stretch the floor.
Video: Prospect breakdown
Patrick McCaw
UNLV
Sophomore
Guard
The 76ers need wings, and after McCaw's performance at the combine I think he has a shot at going here.
He's not only a good athlete who can defend multiple positions, but he's also a terrific passer and an emerging shooter.
27. Toronto Raptors
Guerschon Yabusele
France
Age: 19
Forward
Yabusele is built like a brick house. He's one of the strongest players in the draft, but he's also skilled. He moves well despite his size and has a shot that goes all the way out to the 3-point line.
The Raptors love toughness and Yabusele brings that. And given the fact that this is the Raptors' second first-round pick, a draft-and-stash type player like Yabusele makes some sense.
28. Phoenix Suns (via Cavaliers)
Timothe Luwawu
France
Age: 21
Forward
The Suns have three picks this draft. They won't want to have all three in the NBA and keeping Luwawu in Europe should help his development.
Luwawu is a very good athlete and has the potential to be a lockdown defender in the NBA who can guard multiple positions. His offense is still a work in progress. If he ever improves his jump shot, he's got a real chance to be a good 3-and-D player in the NBA.
29. San Antonio Spurs
Demetrius Jackson
Notre Dame
Junior
Guard
Tony Parker is starting to age and Patty Mills is just solid as a backup.
While Jackson would probably come off the bench at this stage of his career as well, he has all the physical tools to be a good point guard down the road and would fit well into the Spurs' culture.
Video: Prospect breakdown
30. Golden State Warriors
Damian Jones
Vanderbilt
Junior
Center
Two of the Warriors' true centers -- Anderson Varejao and Festus Ezeli -- are free agents this summer. There should be room on the roster for a player like Jones, who not only is an elite athlete but can also stretch the floor.
Video: Prospect breakdown
storyteller
Superstar
Trade grades: Rose worth gamble for Knicks? Did Bulls get enough?
The deal
Bulls get: Guards Jose Calderon and Jerian Grant, center Robin Lopez
Knicks get: Guard Derrick Rose, forward Justin Holiday, 2017 second-round pick
Chicago Bulls: B
Four years after Derrick Rose -- then the reigning MVP -- tore his ACL in the Bulls' opening playoff game, the time had long since come for both player and organization to get a fresh start.
Chicago kept waiting for Rose to return to form after his series of knee injuries, and he showed just enough flashes of brilliance to make that seem realistic. But overall, Rose has rated more or less at replacement level over the past three seasons -- somewhat better in 2014-15 but worse in 2015-16.
Worse yet, Rose seemed to stand in the way of Jimmy Butler's ascendance to a larger role on offense. Butler is younger, better and under contract for longer than Rose. It's time for the Bulls to be Butler's team, provided the organization is committed to keeping him, and he played far better with Rose on the bench last season.
According to NBA.com, Butler used 28.6 percent of Chicago's plays with a .575 true shooting percentage without Rose in 2015-16, as compared to 22.0 percent and .553 with him. Here's the list of all the players in the league who performed better in both categories than Butler with Rose on the bench: Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant, James Harden, LeBron James.
Although Rose's trade value had plummeted because of his poor play, the Bulls still figure to get more production from the salary they'll pay the players acquired in this trade than from Rose. In particular, Lopez gives Chicago a solid center, presuming incumbents Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah head elsewhere in free agency.
The three years and about $42 million remaining on Lopez's contract look eminently reasonable in the context of the rapidly rising salary cap. I'd rather have Lopez on that deal than pay a free agent like Bismack Biyombo or Ian Mahinmi what they're likely to get this summer.
The Bulls do still have more than $20 million to work with in free agency, presuming they renounce Gasol and Noah. But their real opportunity to add to the roster will come in the summer of 2017, when Chicago could have $40 million-plus to add to a core of Butler, Lopez and Nikola Mirotic. That could put the Bulls in contention for free-agent point guards like Chris Paul and Russell Westbrook.
In the meantime, Chicago can also try to rehabilitate Grant's value. The Notre Dame product was a terrible fit in New York's triangle offense as a rookie but could be more effective in an attack predicated on the pick-and-roll. Calderon also gives the Bulls a stopgap option at point
New York Knicks: D-plus
First, let's look at the positives of this deal. There's hope Rose can be somewhat more effective than his overall 2015-16 numbers would suggest. They were marred by Rose's first two months, when he was dealing with blurred vision from a preseason eye injury that also slowed his transition into coach Fred Hoiberg's system. From Jan. 1 onward, Rose's true shooting percentage was a more acceptable .508, as compared to .479 overall.
More importantly, the Knicks aren't taking much of a risk by trading for Rose, who's in the final season of his rookie extension. If Rose again deals with injuries or struggles when he's on the court, New York can simply walk away next summer, when the Knicks can have enough cap space to sign a pair of max free agents. Compared to overpaying for one of the free agents in a weak crop for point guards, I'd much rather have Rose for one year.
Of course, the price of that flexibility is what New York had to give up in this deal. The Knicks now find themselves in need of a starting center, unless they believe Kristaps Porzingis can play the position full-time. But that's probably a few years away.
And their depth chart behind Rose is basically empty after they waived Tony Wroten to complete the deal -- a problem given Rose has missed 47 games over the last two seasons.
New York will have about $26 million to spend this summer, but again that money will come out of the Knicks' 2017 cap space if the team offers multiyear deals, so Phil Jackson might again attempt to sign players to short-term contracts similar to those Arron Afflalo and Derrick Williams got last year. (Both Afflalo and Williams chose free agency over 2016-17 player options.)
There's also the question of how this all fits on the court. Not since his rookie season has Rose used less than 27 percent of his team's plays, which makes him the highest-usage teammate Carmelo Anthony has had since teaming with Allen Iverson in Denver.
It's unclear how many touches Porzingis can get playing with Rose and Anthony, and Rose doesn't tend to look for big men on the pick-and-roll. Per player-tracking data, Rose averaged 40.2 passes per 100 direct picks, less than the average of around 45 for primary pick-and-roll options.
As a result of all those questions, this gamble that Rose is going to return to stardom is not one I'd be willing to take.
5-on-5: Should the Suns trade Eric Bledsoe and Brandon Knight?
With a pair of top-10 draft picks joining the team, is it time for Phoenix to trade away its top guards and fully rebuild? Or should Brandon Knight and Eric Bledsoe be part of the long-term plans?
Our NBA Insiders debate the future of the Suns.
1. What do you foresee and advise for the Suns this offseason?
Steve Ilardi, ESPN Insider: After sinking to an abysmal 23-59 last season -- their worst record since the Woodstock era -- the Suns have ample incentive to shake things up. The key question: Will they finally go all-in on rebuilding around their young core, or will they keep looking for shortcuts like the Tyson Chandler signing and their fruitless pursuit of LaMarcus Aldridge last summer? I would advise full-on rebuild.
This summer, they should also take a page out of the 2015 Blazers' offseason playbook: Look for the high-value/low-cost young players available via trade or free agency. With their raft of young players and the addition of three promising rookies, the team should spend whatever it takes to build their player development program into a Spurs-caliber juggernaut.
Tom Haberstroh, ESPN Insider: Signing Tyson Chandler and chasing LaMarcus Aldridge felt like a foolish attempt to build a contender overnight, so I'm glad they went with the long play and drafted Dragan Bender. That should be their focus. This was the NBA's worst team for a brutal stretch last season, when it lost 40 of 43 games. The Suns are hopefully building it from scratch.
Jeremias Engelmann, ESPN Insider: I'd advise trying to find a taker for Tyson Chandler. As a center who needs a good point guard to feed him accurate lobs, Chandler is miscast for the Suns. I would not try to sign one of the bigger free agents, as that would just bring the Suns back up to mediocrity and hamper their long-term outlook.
Bradford Doolittle, ESPN Insider: The Suns are one of a few teams with a preponderance of prospects and a fuzzy direction. Public rhetoric from the front office suggests they won't be going into a full rebuild, so it's a moot point to suggest they should do so.
Still, Phoenix needs to avoid long-term entanglements with older players. I would throw my cap space at free agents no older than 27, with Nicolas Batum, Harrison Barnes and possibly Hassan Whiteside looking particularly alluring.
Kevin Pelton, ESPN Insider: I advise patience. If the right deal comes along for the likes of Tyson Chandler and Brandon Knight, neither of whom seems to be a fit in Phoenix, the Suns should certainly take it. And if they're concerned that Bledsoe's value is at its peak right now because of his age and series of knee surgeries, this might be the time to strike. But Phoenix's most important offseason work came on draft night.
2. What should the Suns' short-term goals be?
Ilardi: They should embrace the opportunity to grow from within. Their best path back to NBA relevance is to nurture and develop their deep stable of youngsters -- Devin Booker, Alex Len, Archie Goodwin, T.J. Warren, Dragan Bender, Marquese Chriss and Tyler Ulis. To make sure the kids have ample opportunity to develop, the team probably needs to offload veterans such as Chandler and Teletovic.
Haberstroh: Forget about the playoffs and unload Bledsoe, P.J. Tucker and Chandler to contenders. This is a rebuild. Devin Booker is still a teenager who won't hit his prime for another half-decade, and the same goes for Bender. Short-term goals should be about maximizing the long term.
Engelmann: Developing their young guys: Warren, Booker, and now Bender and Chriss. I'm not a fan of any of their veterans, so I'd be fine with dealing them away if it meant more playing time for the younger players. The summer of 2017, armed with another high draft pick, is when I think they should be attacking.
Doolittle: Even if the Suns push for the playoffs, they need to avoid squandering the developmental minutes of Booker, Len and this year's rookies on stopgap veterans. The ideal would be to hang in the playoff race, retain payroll flexibility and hope the perception of forward momentum puts Phoenix in the picture for upper-tier free agents.
Pelton: Developing Booker and this year's rookies and figuring out which other players on the roster are keepers. Playing respectably is a good short-term goal. Anything involving a number of wins is not.
3. Can Bledsoe and Knight thrive together in the backcourt?
Haberstroh: Coexist? Yes. That pairing was a respectable plus-4.8 per 100 possessions playing with former Sun Markieff Morris, Tucker and Chandler in 177 minutes of action. That's proof that this backcourt can work, but thriving won't happen with this current roster. I'd suggest shopping Bledsoe, who turns 27 in December, but his knee injury will complicate trade talks.
Engelmann: "Thrive" may be too positive a word here. I don't have grave objections to playing two combo guards, and I believe they can certainly coexist. It worked with Goran Dragic and Eric Bledsoe. Real plus-minus has never been a particular fan of Brandon Knight -- he has rated below minus-2 the past three seasons -- so I think the best solution would be to deal him and go forward with Bledsoe and Booker instead. Knight's stock isn't exactly high, though.
Ilardi: The Bledsoe-Knight Experience has been a bust. Yes, the two are effective partners on offense: Knight's all-around scoring and ability to stretch the floor nicely complement Bledsoe's knack for getting to the rim and making plays in the paint.
But Knight has been a major defensive liability. He's too small to guard opposing SGs, but too slow (laterally) to stay in front of opposing PGs. And Knight's awful minus-3.1 predictive real plus-minus (RPM) suggests that the Suns vastly overpaid for him last summer. They should try to deal him this summer to make room for Devin Booker, their true emerging star at the 2-guard position.
Doolittle: I don't like them as a starting backcourt, especially when you've got bona fide 2-guards such as Booker and Archie Goodwin on the upswing. Knight's defense isn't tenable for a 35-MPG player. Since he can play with the ball or off it, and has combo-guard size, I see his path being similar to that of Jamal Crawford.
Pelton: I think they can. Though both Bledsoe and Knight were somewhat more prolific playing separately than together, they were also less efficient. The Bledsoe-Knight backcourt might not be ideal defensively, but I think the greater challenge to it is the desire to find a starting spot for Booker rather than specific problems with the pairing on the court.
4. What's a Suns trade you would like to see?
Ilardi: If I were still working in the Suns' front office, I would suggest shopping Knight to find a taker on his bloated 5-year, $70 million contract. Since Sacramento arguably has the league's least savvy front office, they'd be good place to start the search.
A deal of Knight (minus-3.1 RPM) for PG Darren Collison (0.1 RPM), Omri Casspi (0.7) and Ben McLemore (-1.6) works under the cap and gives Phoenix three serviceable rotation pieces -- all with only one remaining year under contract -- to add to their young nucleus.
Haberstroh: A sign-and-trade centered on Chandler for Houston's Donatas Motiejunas (a restricted free agent this summer).
Houston will be looking for a veteran center to replace Dwight Howard. Chandler played for Mike D'Antoni in New York, so they have a history. If the Cavs hadn't won the title, I'd suggest Bledsoe, a client of LeBron James' same agency, for either Kyrie Irving or Kevin Love, but that ship sailed when that trio won it all.
Engelmann: In a best-case scenario, they deal their two most awful contracts in Knight and Chandler, who make a combined $26 million next season while being below-average NBA players. Chandler for a pick to New York, if the Knicks can't land a free-agent center, seems like an option. Knight might be tough to deal, but I could see the Kings being interested if Rajon Rondo signs elsewhere.
Doolittle: Chandler belongs on a contender. And with Len heading into his fourth year, they've got to find out if he can be the long-term center. Cleveland makes sense as a destination -- Chandler could replace Timofey Mozgov -- withChanning Frye returning to fill the Suns' leadership void. You'd likely need a third team to make the salaries work.
Pelton: Tucker to Cleveland for the rights to Cedi Osman. The Suns would be wise to cash in on Tucker's trade value while he's in the last year of his contract. His $5.3 million salary looks like a bargain compared to the market for 3-and-D role players. He could be an upgraded version of Richard Jefferson for the Cavaliers as a combo forward, and Phoenix would get the rights to the promising Osman, the No. 31 pick in 2015 who turned 21 in April.
5. If the Suns were a stock and you were looking ahead five years, would you buy, sell or hold?
Engelmann: Buy. When you've won 23 games, there aren't many directions to go but up. The Suns would've won more had Bledsoe played more than 31 games. And keep in mind, Suns owner Robert Sarver isn't exactly a fan of a long rebuilding effort, so the Suns will try to compete. The question, then, is whether they'll find themselves in "no man's land" again, winning around 40 games.
Ilardi: Buy. If the Suns' hypothetical share price today is a mere 23 (their win total last season), they're pretty much a lock to double investors' money -- to reach 46 wins -- over the next five years. They may not be much better next season, but barring gross front office malpractice, they simply have too many young assets not to rise back to respectability within the next 3-5 years.
Haberstroh: Hold. I'm not keen on buying a stock run by Robert Sarver, who blamed last year's demise on millennial culture and scapegoated Markieff Morris. I'm not sure about Earl Watson's capabilities as a head coach yet, so it's hard for me to buy. That said, I like the foundation of Booker, Bender and Len. It has been a rough start for general manager Ryan McDonough, but the pieces are there.
Doolittle: Hold. There is plenty to work with, and Booker looks as if he can become a true foundational player. But I want to see more of all these young players before I truly buy in. I also want a clearer sense of what style of basketball the Suns will be playing on both ends of the floor under Earl Watson.
Pelton: Buy, depending on the price. I'm higher on Bender than just about anyone else is, and if he's as good as I think, and Booker is as good as everyone else thinks (I remain a tad skeptical given his atrocious defensive stats), the Suns have a core in place with plenty more draft picks on the way.
Rookie Report: Top 10 rookies this season
Major League Baseball was blessed last year with a bevy of rookie shortstops entering the major leagues, led by Carlos Correa of the Houston Astros and Francisco Lindor of the Cleveland Indians.
This year's class has added another trio of rookie shortstops who are performing at high offensive levels, Corey Seager (Los Angeles Dodgers), Trevor Story (Colorado Rockies) and Aledmys Diaz (St. Louis Cardinals).
This year's rookie class also boasts a trio of successful starting pitchers, led by Michael Fulmer (Detroit Tigers), Steven Matz (New York Mets) and Kenta Maeda (Dodgers). And, although they haven't pitched enough to make this list, the promotions of pitchers Blake Snell of the Tampa Bay Rays, Jameson Taillon of the Pittsburgh Pirates and Julio Urias of Dodgers means this list could be different by season’s end.
One thing is for sure, unlike last season when Kris Bryant and Correa were front runners for the rookie of the year awards, this year looks like it will be one of the closest award races we’ve seen in a long time.
For now, here are the top 10 rookie performances in the first half of the major league season:
1. Corey Seager, SS, Los Angeles Dodgers
2016: 16 HRs, 38 RBIs, 3.0 WAR
2. Michael Fulmer, RHP, (Detroit Tigers
2016: 7-2, 2.40 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 2.6 WAR
3. Kenta Maeda, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
2016: 6-5, 2.91 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 1.7 WAR
4. Nomar Mazara, OF,(Texas Rangers
2016: 11 HRs, 31 RBIs, 1.2 WAR
5. Steven Matz, LHP, (New York Mets
2016: 7-3, 3.29 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 1.5 WAR
6. Trevor Story, SS, Colorado Rockies
2016: 19 HRs, 50 RBIs, 2.1 WAR
7. Aledmys Diaz, SS, St. Louis Cardinals
2016: 10 HRs, 40 RBIs, 2.4 WAR
and enjoying his time here in the states.”
8. Trayce Thompson, OF, (Los Angeles Dodgers
2016: 11 HRs, 27 RBIs, 0.6 WAR
Thompson got the opportunity to play for the Dodgers this year when Andre Ethier, Carl Crawford and Yasiel Puig all were injured or not performing. He has made the most of it, belting 11 homers and showing off his athleticism on a nightly basis. His performance was so convincing the Dodgers decided to release Carl Crawford to make room for him. His strong make-up and work ethic indicate that he can be an everyday player and a long-term solution for the Dodgers. President of baseball operations Andrew Friedman told me recently at a Dodgers game: “When we acquired Thompson in the three-way deal with the Reds and White Sox we knew his floor would be as a fourth outfielder. However, with his athleticism and tools we also thought he had the ceiling to be an everyday player with power and speed.” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told me he evaluates Thompson as an average outfielder now, but when his jumps, reads and angles improve, he should develop into an above average defender. He has the ability to play all three outfield positions, but with Puig in right and Pederson in center, it looks like Thompson’s long-term future will be in left.
9. Dae-Ho Lee, 1B,(Seattle Mariners
2016: 10 HRs, 30 RBIs, 1.1 WAR
The Mariners signed the Korean free agent by way of Japan to a minor league contract in the offseason after he belted 31 home runs last year for the Fukuoka Softbank Hawks. They knew he would hit for power, but what they didn’t know for sure was how good he would be defensively and how much he would hit for average. He has exceeded expectations on both fronts so far this season and has helped the Mariners make their lineup much deeper than it was a year ago. Here is what Mariners GM Jerry DiPoto told me about him: “He has a way of doing something positive almost every time he steps on the field. He can flat out hit … and has shown a knack for delivering in the big moments.”
10. Seung Hwan Oh, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
2016: 2-0, 1.66 ERA, .79 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
Oh has been one of the best set-up relievers in the NL this season. His fastball is mostly 92-93 mph, and he cuts and sinks it. He has a hard 86-mph slider and a solid split finger with the ability to change speed on all of his pitches. He effectively changes eye levels while utilizing both sides of the plate. He throws his slider a little farther out or adds more break to it so hitters never seem to see the same pitch or location. He is the king of variation and deception. He has been so effective that he could be next in line as Cardinals closer if Trevor Rosenthal continues to struggle. I talked to Cards general manager John Mozeliak about Oh: “He has done everything we could have hoped. Having success on the mound, great teammate,
2016: 11 HRs, 27 RBIs, 0.6 WAR
9. Dae-Ho Lee, 1B,(Seattle Mariners
2016: 10 HRs, 30 RBIs, 1.1 WAR
10. Seung Hwan Oh, RP, St. Louis Cardinals
2016: 2-0, 1.66 ERA, .79 WHIP, 1.1 WAR
THASTUNNA
All Star
Futures Game players who could be traded
Sunday's SiriusXM Futures Game at Petco Park in San Diego is an annual opportunity for general managers, assistant GMs, scouting directors and scouts to see some of the best prospects in minor league baseball on the same fiel. In my time as a front office executive, I'd usually send at least two of my top evaluators to the Futures Game each year and made it a must-watch for everyone in the baseball operations department. Even if most of these top prospects weren't in our organization, they still could make for good trade acquisitions in the present or the future.
It's likely that there are a handful of players set to play in this year's game who are being dangled right now as trade bait by contending teams looking for proven veterans like Julio Teheran, Rich Hill, Drew Pomeranz, Aroldis Chapman, Jay Bruce or Carlos Gonzalez.
Here are seven prospects from this year's Futures Game who could be dealt by the August 1st trade deadline (stats are through games of July 8):
Age: 22 | Height: 5-10 | Weight: 175 | B/T: L/L
.308/.375/.526, 26 2B, 10 3B, 7 HR, 60 RBI (A/AA)
The Red Sox top two position player prospects -- infielder Yoan Moncada and Benintendi – are both in the game. So far the Red Sox have told opposing GM’s that they are not moving either one. However, in a deal for a top-of-rotation type starter that they could control for several more years -- like Teheran of the Atlanta Braves -- the Red Sox would likely have to include Benintendi. The Red Sox would prefer to hold on to Benintendi and acquire a lesser starter, but with the history of team President Dave Dombrowski trading for top-end starters, this is definitely a possibility. The Sox value Moncada higher than Benintendi, which is why he’s more likely to be dealt. Benintendi was the Red Sox first-round selection in the 2015 draft. He has a smooth left-handed swing with average power that projects to be above average in time. He profiles as a middle of the order all-star caliber player with left field as his best position.
Age: 20 | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 205 | B/T: R/R
2.45 ERA, 0.974 WHIP, 94 K’s in 77 IP
The Giants have never been afraid to trade their top prospects, as they showed when they dealt Zach Wheeler to the New York Mets in exchange for outfielder Carlos Beltran in 2011. Bickford and Tyler Beede are the Giants’ best two pitching prospects. Although they don’t want to deal either one, they probably won’t let one of them stand in the way if they can get an impact reliever in return. Bickford has a plus fastball and slider and his release point has been much more consistent this year. It would be a painful trade for the Giants, but they also know they have another chance at a World Series title.
Age: 21 | Height: 6-1 | Weight: 190 | B/T: R/R
.286/.368/.481, 11 HR, 43 RBIs, 11 SB
The Indians have the best starting rotation one-through-five in baseball right now. They not only have a legitimate chance of winning the AL Central but a real possibility of getting back to the World Series. Although they have been scoring enough runs, there is no question another impact bat would help. Whether it’s Carlos Beltran of the Yankees, Jay Bruce of the Reds or Carlos Gonzalez of the Rockies, there are plenty available on the trade market. Frazier would be difficult to part with because he profiles as a 20 home run, 20 stolen base talent. The only way they include him in a deal is if the return puts them over the top.
Age: 21 | Height: 6-3 | Weight: 224 | B/T: R/R
0.28 ERA, 17 SV, 55 K’s in 32 IP
The Tigers don’t want to trade their top pitching prospect, but if they can get an impact starter back like Rich Hill of the A’s, they might end up paying the price. The Tigers have one of the best lineups in baseball and could get back to the postseason if they can add some pitching. The Tigers have a relatively weak farm system and even though Jimenez is a reliever, he has great trade value. Jimenez throws up to 98 mph with an above average slider and strikes hitters out with both pitches. His fastball has sneaky, deceptive late life that he can manipulate above or below the bat.
Age: 21 | Height: 6-0 | Weight: 182 | B/T: R/R
.254/.340/.556, 20 HR, 42 RBIs
Every GM that talks to the Rangers about their prospects asks for Jurickson Profar, Lewis Brinson, Dillon Tate and Joey Gallo. The Rangers might not deal any of those four, but one prospect they're more likely to trade is Demerritte, who is blocked in Texas behind Rougned Odor, Elvis Andrus and Profar. Demeritte has quick hands and above-average bat speed with legitimate pop. He profiles as an average fielder at second or third base with above-average range. Because of the Rangers’ strong depth, Demeritte could be dealt for pitching later this month.
Age: 19 | Height: 6-0 |Weight: 231 | B/T: L/L .254/.312/.428, 18 2B, 9 HR, 47 RBIs
Naylor is clearly the Marlins’ best position player prospect and someone they don’t want to trade. But owner Jeffrey Loria is committed to trying to get the Marlins back to the postseason and he’s not going to let a 19-year old first baseman stand in the way if they can make the right deal. President Mike Hill has been extremely aggressive in his search for starting pitching and he won’t stop until he lands one. Hill won’t want to include Naylor, but he also knows that with so many teams having inventory in their systems, it’s tough to compete in the trade market. Naylor has a loud bat with consistent sweetspot contact and power to all fields.
Age: 21 | Height: 6-2 | Weight: 194 | B/T: L/R
.302/.394/.391, 17 2B, 27 RBIs
The Orioles are planning to say goodbye to Matt Wieters in free agency this offseason and are hoping that Sisco will be their long-term solution at catcher. They’re also trying to win now and he’s their most valuable trade chip. Sisco is one of the best offensive catching prospects in baseball. He has a smooth swing that produces line drives all over the field. However, he’s also a below-average defender with below-average power. The Orioles have to get a legitimate No. 2 type starter to include Sisco in a deal. General manager Dan Duquette has never been afraid to trade prospects at the trade deadline and this year shouldn’t be any different.