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[Skooby]

Tuesday Truths: Don't blame Buddy Hield for Oklahoma's struggles

Tuesday Truths: Don't blame Hield for Sooners' struggles


Big 12: Are we watching the Sooners die by the 3?

Back in January when we were all proclaiming gravely and sagely that Bill Self's incredible run of Big 12 titles was in serious jeopardy, Oklahoma looked like the best candidate in all of Division I to wear the coveted "college version of Golden State" crown. Now that it's March, KU has locked down its 12 straight league championship, and the Sooners have dropped four of their past seven games. What changed?



Don't blame Buddy Hield. Yes, his 3-point shooting has come down to earth, but that portion of the earth that it has come down to is still equivalent to Everest or Kilimanjaro. Also recall that Hield began Big 12 play with one of the most formidable displays of individual offense you'll ever see. In OU's first nine conference games, the senior shot 51 percent on his 3s while averaging (this is the kicker) an incredible if not absurd 11.6 attempts per game. Since that time those numbers have been 39 and 9.9, respectively. A little more earthly, perhaps, but still outstanding.

No, the big change has been the shooting from the so-called supporting cast. This is still a perimeter-oriented offense, but Sooners not named Hield have connected on just 29 percent of their 3s over the past seven games. Nor has OU's 2-point shooting been able to pick up this slack. In fact it too has dipped measurably, as opposing defenses have seen less need to extend out to the perimeter. That being said, literally everything else about Oklahoma's performance looks the same as if not better than it was back in January. Lon Kruger just needs his second, third and fourth options on offense to knock down a few shots.

Big 12
Team W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. Kansas 14-3 67.6 1.12 0.99 +0.13
2. West Virginia 11-5 69.9 1.06 0.98 +0.08
3. Oklahoma 10-6 69.9 1.09 1.02 +0.07
4. Iowa State 10-7 69.6 1.14 1.08 +0.06
5. Baylor 10-6 65.9 1.12 1.09 +0.03
6. Texas 10-7 66.0 1.04 1.04 0.00
7. Texas Tech 8-8 65.1 1.07 1.09 -0.02
8. Kansas State 4-12 66.5 1.00 1.05 -0.05
9. Oklahoma State 3-14 64.1 0.97 1.08 -0.11
10. TCU 2-14 69.4 0.91 1.10 -0.19
Average 67.4 1.05


ACC: Defense, depth and (Blue) Devils

Lost in the understandable discussion of (and inevitable puns occasioned by) Grayson Allen and his unerring propensity to stick his leg out has been the fact that Duke as a whole isn't particularly good at defense at the moment. When last we saw the Blue Devils they were losing at Pittsburgh by 14, and Mike Krzyzewski's guys are currently ranked No. 10 out of 15 teams in terms of points allowed per possession in ACC play.

What's particularly ominous for Duke fans is that their recurring concern over the past few years -- interior D -- is rearing its ugly head all the way into March this time around. Each of the Blue Devils' past five opponents, and indeed eight of their past 10, have made at last half of their 2-pointers. Coach K's guys do get to end the season with two home games, however (against Wake Forest and North Carolina), precisely the kind of safe space a team badly needs when its past three opponents have connected 56 percent of the time from inside the arc.

Are we seeing the fatigue created by a lack of depth? Quite possibly we are, though it's worth noting that the distribution of minutes seen from Krzyzewski in this season's 14th ACC game looks fairly similar to that found in the same game from a year ago to the day. Fatigue may be less of an issue in 2015-16 than ability. Barring a sudden and unanticipated return by Amile Jefferson, either explanation could loom large after the next two home games.

ACC
Team W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. North Carolina 13-4 70.8 1.13 1.01 +0.12
2. Virginia 11-5 60.9 1.11 1.00 +0.11
3. Louisville 11-5 65.5 1.06 0.98 +0.08
4. Duke 10-6 66.1 1.14 1.09 +0.05
5. Notre Dame 10-6 64.9 1.16 1.11 +0.05
6. Miami 12-4 64.2 1.09 1.04 +0.05
7. Clemson 9-7 64.2 1.10 1.06 +0.04
8. Syracuse 9-8 63.9 1.05 1.02 +0.03
9. Pittsburgh 9-7 64.5 1.08 1.08 0.00
10. Florida State 7-10 70.0 1.06 1.08 -0.02
11. Georgia Tech 7-9 67.2 1.07 1.10 -0.03
12. Virginia Tech 8-8 68.1 1.02 1.07 -0.05
13. NC State 4-12 68.2 1.08 1.13 -0.05
14. Wake Forest 2-15 70.6 0.99 1.12 -0.13
15. Boston College 0-16 66.5 0.84 1.11 -0.27
Average 66.4 1.07


Big East: The Pirates are very much what we expected ... from Providence

Seton Hall will end the season with road games against Butler and DePaul, and it's a mark of what Kevin Willard's team has been able to achieve that even two losses there may not be sufficient to keep the Pirates out of the 2016 NCAA tournament. Providence lost to the Blue Demons in Rosemont, after all, and the Friars may still go dancing. Perhaps the Hall could do the same, though surely it's best not to find out.

The Pirates' win at home over Xavier represented this team's best showing on offense during the Big East season: 1.17 points per possession. Certainly if that level of scoring continues, this will be one tough team to draw in your bracket. Then again, even if Seton Hall reverts to form on that side of the ball, this is still a worthy foe. No team has been better at forcing misses inside the arc in Big East play, and in those same conference games Isaiah Whitehead ranks among the league's top 10 not only in assist percentage and 3-point accuracy but also in block percentage.

As for Providence, a season that once saw Ed Cooley's team ranked in the top 10 nationally now sees the Friars clinging to the bubble. This defense is almost as good as what we've seen from Seton Hall, but Providence still has not found a way to get the ball in the basket. Despite the presence of Kris Dunn distributing the ball and posting the lowest turnover rate of his career, the Friars have simply been starved of made shots. Yes, Villanova may well record its third consecutive 16-2 first-place record. Even so, the Big East season has not lacked for surprises.

Bonus Bluejay note. Creighton looks good in the numbers shown here, but before you start that Bluejays-for-a-bid petition do keep in mind there's a 41-point win at home over St. John's baked into the yummy statistical goodness.

Big East
Team W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1.Villanova 14-2 68.6 1.11 0.95 +0.16
2. Xavier 13-4 72.8 1.10 1.02 +0.08
3. Seton Hall 11-5 72.2 1.03 0.96 +0.07
4. Creighton 9-7 70.4 1.04 0.99 +0.05
5. Butler 8-8 68.6 1.06 1.04 +0.02
6. Georgetown 7-9 69.6 1.05 1.04 +0.01
7. Providence 8-8 71.1 0.99 0.99 0.00
8. Marquette 7-9 71.7 0.98 1.02 -0.04
9.DePaul 3-13 69.3 0.96 1.12 -0.16
10. St. John's 1-16 75.9 0.88 1.06 -0.18
Average 71.0 1.02


Big Ten: Trouble right here in Iowa City

Iowa has now lost three games in a row and four of its past five, which is highly unusual behavior coming from a team that was handed a severely and even brutally front-loaded Big Ten schedule. In the opening half of their conference slate, the Hawkeyes played two games apiece against Michigan State and Purdue, as well as a road date against Maryland. When Fran McCaffery's men emerged from that gauntlet with an 8-1 record, it looked like an outright league title was theirs for the taking.

It hasn't worked out that way. Instead Iowa will have to win out to salvage a share of the championship alongside Indiana and, potentially, some combination of Michigan State, Maryland and/or Wisconsin. Over the course of these past five games, the Hawkeyes have given up 1.11 points per possession in part because opponents have grabbed a substantial number of offensive rebounds. For Hawkeye fans this may seem a bit too reminiscent of the late-season defensive collapse that cost McCaffery's team a decent NCAA tournament seed in 2013-14.

Naturally any team that can win a piece of a Big Ten title is, by definition, still in very good position. For Iowa to seize this opportunity, it will help if Jarrod Uthoff can end his shooting slump. The senior has connected on just 10 of his past 41 tries from beyond the arc, a development that has both fed into and coincided with a marked drop in efficiency by the offense as a whole. If Uthoff can regain his January form and the Hawkeyes find a way to take care of their defensive glass, there may yet be a banner hung in Carver Hawkeye Arena.

Big Ten
Team W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1 .Michigan State 11-5 66.6 1.17 0.99 +0.18
2. Indiana 13-3 67.2 1.15 1.00 +0.15
3 .Iowa 11-5 68.2 1.11 1.02 +0.09
4 .Purdue 10-6 66.6 1.11 1.03 +0.08
5. Maryland 11-5 67.2 1.06 0.99 +0.07
6. Wisconsin 11-5 62.8 1.07 1.00 +0.07
7. Nebraska 6-10 65.2 1.08 1.07 +0.01
8. Michigan 10-7 66.2 1.09 1.08 +0.01
9. Ohio State 11-6 67.7 1.02 1.01 +0.01
10. Northwestern 6-10 63.9 1.03 1.07 -0.04
11. Illinois 5-11 67.9 0.98 1.07 -0.09
12. Minnesota 2-14 68.6 0.97 1.09 -0.12
13. Penn State 6-10 66.0 0.96 1.09 -0.13
14. Rutgers 0-16 70.7 0.90 1.21 -0.31
Average 66.8 1.05




Pac-12: A chance for the Bears to show they're for real

California looks fantastic on paper, and indeed the turnaround stories are already being written. And why not? The Golden Bears have won seven straight games, my colleague Joe Lunardi is showing them as a No. 6 seed, and this week Cuonzo Martin's team reentered the top 25 after a 14-week absence. It's morning in Berkeley, right?

Absolutely. In fact the only thing that could make the morning even sunnier would be a huge road win at Arizona this week. Five of the seven games in Cal's current win streak were played at home, and the Bears own a 2-5 record on the road in Pac-12 play.

This may be one of those cases in which a fast-improving team has no reason to apologize for a schedule it was handed by the league office. During this win streak the Bears have scored with equal success from both sides of the arc, and the defensive rebounding recorded over that stretch by Ivan Rabb, Jaylen Brown and Kameron Rooks can justly be labeled dominant. (It has to be. Cal's past seven opponents have committed turnovers on fewer than 12 percent of their possessions.) A win in Tucson against a Wildcat team that now has Allonzo Trier back in the rotation will be a tall order, but Martin's group really is peaking. Enjoy the collision.

Pac-12
Team W-L Pace PPP OPP. PPP EM
1. Arizona 10-6 70.4 1.15 1.02 +0.13
2. Utah 12-5 65.9 1.11 1.00 +0.11
3 .Oregon 12-4 68.6 1.14 1.04 +0.10
4. California 11-5 69.2 1.08 0.99 +0.09
5. UCLA 6-10 71.1 1.07 1.07 0.00
6. USC 8-8 73.4 1.06 1.07 -0.01
7. Colorado 10-7 69.3 1.02 1.03 -0.01
8. Oregon State 8-8 67.7 1.03 1.04 -0.01
9. Washington 8-9 76.7 1.04 1.06 -0.02
10. Stanford 8-8 66.9 1.02 1.05 -0.03
11. Arizona State 4-12 70.4 1.02 1.12 -0.10
12. Washington State 1-16 69.5 0.94 1.15 -0.21
Average 69.9 1.05

 

[Skooby]

SEC: Will Vanderbilt be the best team to miss the tournament this decade?

Starting the day before Thanksgiving and running up through the second week in January, Vanderbilt played no fewer than five teams that (we trust) will make the NCAA tournament: Kansas, Baylor, Dayton, Purdue and South Carolina. Kevin Stallings' team went 0-5 in those games, and they lost to LSU and Arkansas as well. Over that time the Commodores went 3-7, with the wins coming at home against Detroit, Wofford and Western Michigan.

Chisel the above paragraph in stone, encase it in glass and label the resulting exhibit "Essence of everything the RPI hates." This is how Vanderbilt finds itself in the fix it's in at the beginning of March. On a per-possession basis you can make a case that this may be the second-best team in the SEC, but at 18-11 overall the Commodores' presence in the field of 68 is by no means assured. This is the way this selection game has been played for decades, and Stallings and his staff knew it coming into the season. Still, purely as a spectator you might want to pull for the Commodores to get their bid. Damian Jones and Wade Baldwin form one of D-I's better (and more unheralded) inside-outside duos, and this Vandy defense is one of the best Stallings has had during his entire tenure.

No eligible team ranked in KenPom's top 30 on Selection Sunday has been left out of the tournament since 2007, but that will be cold comfort to Stallings if the 'Dores (now at No. 23) set a new precedent in that department. Vanderbilt fans and strict constructionists alike can tell themselves the NCAA's boilerplate still says best "teams," not "resumes." Meanwhile interested bystanders will note that few teams have subjected that distinction to a more rigorous test than the 2015-16 Commodores.

SEC
Team W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. Kentucky 11-5 66.6 1.16 0.99 +0.17
2. Vanderbilt 10-6 70.4 1.08 0.99 +0.09
3 .Texas A&M 11-5 67.6 1.08 1.00 +0.08
4. Arkansas 8-8 71.5 1.06 1.04 +0.02
5. Florida 8-8 70.2 1.03 1.02 +0.01
6. Mississippi State 6-10 69.3 1.04 1.03 +0.01
7. South Carolina 10-6 70.6 1.01 1.01 0.00
8. LSU 10-6 73.3 1.06 1.06 0.00
9. Ole Miss 8-8 69.8 1.04 1.05 -0.01
10. Alabama 8-8 66.7 1.00 1.02 -0.02
11. Tennessee 6-10 70.4 1.04 1.07 -0.03
12. Georgia 8-8 69.0 0.97 1.01 -0.04
13. Missouri 3-13 69.6 0.97 1.11 -0.14
14. Auburn 5-11 71.9 0.92 1.07 -0.15
Average 69.8 1.03


American: Huskies suddenly in postseason peril thanks to ... the Huskies

With Cincinnati, Tulsa and Temple all on the bubble, the American entered late February already carrying its fair share of tension and drama with regard to the NCAA tournament. But after Connecticut's 75-68 loss at home to Houston over the weekend, the league has gone from uncertainty to something closer to chaos.

UConn was supposed to be the given in this equation. Kevin Ollie's team was being shown as a No. 8 seed or thereabouts in the mock brackets. And now? This recap of the loss to the Cougars by Jeff Jacobs of the Hartford Courant captures the present situation succinctly:



Asked if this puts more pressure on UConn the last two regular season games, Ollie, who was in no laughing mood, laughed.


"The simple answer is yes."

American
Team W-L Pace PPP Opp. PPP EM
1. SMU 12-4 65.2 1.15 1.00 +0.15
2. Cincinnati 11-5 64.5 1.06 0.94 +0.12
3. Connecticut 10-6 65.2 1.04 0.93 +0.11
4. Houston 11-6 64.8 1.13 1.05 +0.08
5. Tulsa 11-6 66.9 1.06 1.00 +0.06
6. Temple 12-4 65.3 1.02 1.00 +0.02
7. Memphis 7-9 72.4 1.03 1.03 0.00
8. UCF 5-11 67.9 0.96 1.06 -0.10
9. South Florida 4-12 65.6 0.96 1.09 -0.13
10. Tulane 3-13 67.8 0.93 1.08 -0.15
11. East Carolina 3-13 66.3 0.97 1.13 -0.16
Average 66.5 1.03




Those last two games are at SMU and at home against UCF. The Huskies are facing this unforeseen pressure because their formerly outstanding defense has become surprisingly normal. (Or "lousy," in Ollie's description.) Over the past six games UConn has allowed more than a point per trip, and keep in mind that's with a shutout (0.75 points per possession allowed) against 4-12 South Florida tossed in to the mix. The Huskies are not an offensive juggernaut by any means, so it will behoove them to find their misplaced D sooner rather than later.

 

[954UAlreadyknow]

Goodman: What's wrong with LSU?

 

[FakeNews]

Joyner: Why FSU could be back in CFP title hunt

 

[Skooby]

Goodman: What's wrong with LSU?

Where has LSU gone wrong?

Ben Simmons was supposed to take LSU to the promised land. He came to Baton Rouge with lots of hype and fanfare. He's the odds-on favorite to be taken with the top pick in June's NBA draft.

But it hasn't gone exactly as planned for Simmons and the Tigers. They are on the wrong side of the bubble, according to Joe Lunardi, entering Saturday's regular-season finale at Kentucky.

The Tigers (18-12, 11-6 SEC), however, can still earn a share of the SEC title with a win over the Wildcats and a Texas A&M loss to Vanderbilt.

We spoke to several coaches who have faced LSU about the reasons for the Tigers' struggles:


Leadership

Simmons isn't an overly vocal guy, and he played youth basketball in Australia, where younger players generally defer to older teammates. But there just weren't older guys capable of leading this team. Keith Hornsby and Josh Gray are the two seniors on the team, but no one filled that void. It didn't help that Hornsby has missed 10 games because of injuries.

"This is a group without quality leaders, and that has been an issue," one coach said. "That's clear in watching them."

Tim Quarterman is too erratic and unreliable

The lengthy, 6-foot-6 junior entered the season as a projected first-round pick in some mock drafts, and it has often appeared as though he was playing with that in mind. There have been times when he has played extremely well: He had 21 points, 10 rebounds and 7 assists in a win over Kentucky, but in LSU's past four losses, he is 7-of-34 from the field and 3-of-23 from beyond the arc. This is a guy who entered the season as a 26 percent 3-point shooter.

"The real problem with him is he hasn't guarded like he is capable of," one coach said.

Hornsby's health

The senior guard, and the team's top shooter (42 percent from 3 and 82 percent from the free throw line), missed the first seven games of the season because of a groin injury. He then played in 20 games -- at less than 100 percent -- and then suffered another injury that has forced him to miss the Tigers' past three games.

"Without him, they don't have a reliable shooter," one coach said. "Antonio Blakeney is more talented, but Hornsby gives them a guy [who] teams respect -- and have to account for at all times. His mere presence makes it much easier for Simmons."

LSU can't shoot 3-pointers or free throws, especially in crunch time

Take Hornsby out of the equation (he could be done for the rest of the season), and this is a team without a reliable threat from deep or from the line. Simmons rarely shoots from beyond the foul line, and he's shooting 69 percent from the stripe. Blakeney is shooting 36 percent from beyond the arc, and Quarterman is at 35 percent. Those are the two best threats on the floor. From the line, the team is shooting 66 percent -- with Blakeney at 72 percent, Quarterman at 63 percent and Craig Victor II at 61 percent.

Overrated talent

Simmons is the real deal. Everyone understands that by now. However, the rest of the roster -- especially Blakeney and Brandon Sampson, two top-40 recruits -- hasn't met expectations.

"Antonio Blakeney should be a four-year player," one opposing coach said. "He won't be, but he's definitely not a one-and-done."

Victor is solid but has a long way to go. Remember, he couldn't crack the Arizona rotation as a freshman.

Simmons is a unique player, which makes it difficult. He's a guy who is at his best with the ball in his hands, but coach Johnny Jones has also learned that Simmons is most adept scoring the ball in the post and around the basket. Teams have adjusted and begun to have their big men sag off Victor and basically sandwich Simmons when he posts.

"It makes it tough because he's always doubled in the post now," one college coach said.

No bench play

Jones hasn't gotten enough from the role players. Gray, Sampson Jalyn Patterson and Elbert Robinson III haven't really given the Tigers much this season. Simmons has scored 590 points this season. The entire bench has 592.

"There's just not a lot of depth, at least not quality depth," one coach said.

Poor defense

Their overall defense is mediocre, and LSU desperately misses a rim protector. Just imagine if second-round NBA draft pick Jordan Mickey had stuck around another season.

"Simmons can change, alter or block so many shots, but he doesn't do it often enough," one coach said.

Jones is an offensive-minded coach, and the Tigers have shown they can score at a high clip. But they allow 76.8 points per game, and their opponents are shooting 45 percent from the field and 35 percent from 3.

Johnny Jones

LSU's coach has taken the brunt of the blame for the team's struggles, but opposing coaches are torn as to whether he is actually at fault.

"He's trying to manage it, but he doesn't know what to do right now," one coach said.

Jones has LSU averaging 80.1 points per game, but one coach simply said: "There's just not enough around Simmons. Johnny Jones isn't the problem. The team just isn't talented enough."

The Simmons Show has been distracting

Kentucky, Duke and Kansas are used to bringing in elite players. LSU hasn't done it since Shaquille O'Neal, and the attention hasn't been easy on anyone.

For the most part, according to numerous sources, the players have accepted the Simmons Show. Quarterman, however, has been most affected, according to those same sources -- because he's the guy who thought the ball would be in his hands.

The media circus around Simmons has also taken its toll.

"I can't believe he's been as poised as he has been," said one source in the LSU program. "With everything that's gone on around him, it's been tough. But he's stayed focused."

 

[Skooby]

Joyner: Why FSU could be back in CFP title hunt

Joyner: Why FSU is one of only 11 teams that can win the 2016 CFP

There are 128 teams that play at the highest level of college football, and they all start the season undefeated.

But the harsh reality is, only 11 have a legitimate chance to win the 2016 College Football Playoff. In the fourth installment of an 11-part series, let's take a look at another of the few teams that could actually win the CFP: the Florida State Seminoles.

According to ESPN Insider Phil Steele, Florida State is the only FBS team to return all 11 starters on offense. Steele notes that recent history indicates teams returning many starters tend to post better win-loss records than in their previous campaign, which is one of many trends that favor the Seminoles chances for winning a second national championship in four seasons.

College football's most explosive player
The Florida State official website touts running back Dalvin Cook as college football's most explosive player, and the evidence for this is resounding.

Cook was the first freshman in FSU history to rush for more than 1,000 yards and followed that season up with an even better sophomore campaign. He set Seminoles single-season records for all-purpose yards (1,935) and rushing yards (1,691). Cook finished second in percentage of rushes of 10 or more yards among Power 5 running backs with 200 or more carries last year (22.7 percent). He was first in yards per rush after first defensive contact (3.3), a number tallied in part because of his powerful stiff-arm.


Quarterback woes might be overblown
There is no doubt Florida State's quarterback performance last year was not up to recent program standards, but it should be noted that the Seminoles ranked 21st in Total QBR in contests against Power 5 competition (71.6). This offense also ranked tied for 16th among Power 5 teams in points per drive (2.5) and 11th in percentage of drives that resulted in a score (43.8 percent), so quarterbacks did not hold this platoon back very much, and they shouldn't be a hindrance this season.

It isn't clear who will be under center in the upcoming season, but with Sean McGuire (73.2 Total QBR last season), Malik Henry (No. 2-rated dual-threat quarterback in 2016 class) and Deondre Francois (No. 3 rated dual-threat quarterback in 2015 class), the Seminoles have one of the most talented trios of potential starters in college football.


Elite blindside protection
Whoever wins the quarterback job will likely not have to worry much about blindside protection with Roderick Johnson at left tackle. Johnson won the Jacobs Blocking Trophy (given to the ACC's best blocker) and ESPN.com first-team All-ACC status in large part because of his superb consistency. According to Florida State's sports information department, Johnson tallied the highest coaches grades in five of the Seminoles' thirteen games last season.

Florida State also signed what head coach Jimbo Fisher said is, at least on paper, the best offensive line class in school history. That is a major factor in why the Seminoles ranked first in ESPN's 2016 recruiting rankings and should give Florida State plenty of quality offensive line depth.


Unrivaled veteran receiving depth
The Seminoles do have a bit of a question mark regarding the team's go-to target, but there might not be a team in college football with more veteran pass-catching depth. Florida State brings back all of its 2015 receptions and is one of only two Power 5 teams (Indiana being the other) to bring back three players who caught 50 or more passes last season (Travis Rudolph, Kermit Whitfield and Bobo Wilson).


Defensive line could be the team's best position group
The defense is losing five starters from last season, but superb recruiting over the past few years has made the defensive line arguably the best returning position group on the team.

Leading that group is defensive end DeMarcus Walker. He placed fourth among ACC defensive linemen in tackles for loss (15.5) and tied for fifth in sacks (10.5) despite playing on only 72.3 percent of the team's defensive snaps (677, according to Stats LLC).

The Seminoles will also look to former five-star recruit Josh Sweat and Ro'Derrick Hoskins (6.5 tackles for loss on only 352 defensive snaps) to augment Walker's impact play.


A potential superstar in the secondary
Safety Derwin James is on pace to become one of the best defensive backs in the country. He is a former five-star recruit who had issues with the mental part of the game early on, but once he got those in order, he became one of the Seminoles' best defenders.

James was a shutdown player in coverage, posting a 5.6 yards per attempt mark that ranked third on the team among defenders with 10 or more targets. He also racked up 4 passes defensed, 9.5 tackles for loss, 4.5 sacks, 2 quarterback hurries, 2 forced fumbles and 1 recovered fumble. What really stood out, however, is that he tallied 91 tackles. According to Florida State's sports information department, that was the third-highest tackle total by a freshman in team history, behind only Marvin Jones and Ron Simmons. Those two were among the best defenders in Florida State history, so James is already keeping elite company.


Potential special teams improvement
Roberto Aguayo was the best kicker in Florida State history, but his 2015 campaign was his worst season. Aguayo finished 35th nationally in field goal percentage and the Seminoles finished 45th out of 65 Power 5 teams in expected points added on field goal attempts (minus 1.3) and tied for 47th in overall special teams expected points added (minus 4.5).

His replacement is likely to be his brother, Ricky Aguayo, whose ESPN Recruiting scouting report indicates "makes field goals as well as anyone in the 2016 class." If this sibling positional replacement lives up to the advance billing, Florida State could see some special teams improvement this season.


Tough schedule in friendly places
The Seminoles have one of the toughest schedules in college football and thus will get the scheduling benefit of the doubt with the playoff committee over other playoff contenders with weaker schedules.

Florida State also gets the benefit of playing Clemson, North Carolina and Florida at Doak Campbell Stadium. The Seminoles have a season-opening game against Ole Miss in what is technically a neutral site, but that game is in Orlando, Florida, which could make it a de facto home game.


Bottom line
There might not be a team in the country that can lay claim to a deeper talent pool than Florida State. If they play to their potential, these Seminoles could run the table despite the difficult matchup slate.

 

[GreatestLaker]

D'Angelo Russell a future Lakers superstar?

@Skooby

 

[Skooby]

D'Angelo Russell a future Lakers superstar?

@Skooby

Is D'Angelo Russell the NBA's next superstar point guard?





After a strong February, D'Angelo Russell, the rookie point guard of the Los Angeles Lakers, is averaging 31.5 points per game in March on 55 percent shooting.

Is the No. 2 pick in the draft finally showing superstar potential?

Chad Ford and Kevin Pelton look at the future for the 20-year-old point guard, and explain why he could be similar to Russell Westbrook and Kobe Bryant.






How well is D'Angelo Russell playing?


Chad Ford: At this point it looks as if Karl-Anthony Towns is a lock to be NBA Rookie of the Year and has all the makings of a superstar. Kristaps Porzingis also looks like a future star in the making.

However, a third player in the draft class of 2015 is really starting to come on. Within the last 48 hours before the draft, the Los Angeles Lakers pulled the plug on drafting Jahlil Okafor to take D'Angelo Russell.

At the time, along with some others, I felt it was a good move -- but a rough first half of his rookie season gave us pause. Russell's shot wasn't falling, he looked as if he lacked the elite athleticism to get by guys off the dribble and his confidence in his game seemed immature.

Russell has been on fire since the All-Star break, averaging 19.9 points and 4.7 assists and shooting a scintillating 54 percent from 3-point range. On Tuesday, he erupted for 39 points and eight 3-pointers against the Nets.

Kevin, do you think this is just a hot streak, or is this more in line with what you were expecting from Russell?

Kevin Pelton: Nearly 20 points and five assists per game would be high expectations. What I'd say is this big stretch has brought Russell's season averages right in line with what I projected based on his performance at Ohio State.



Russell reaching expectations
Performance Win% Usg TS% Reb% Ast%
Projected .478 .205 .505 7.5 6.0
Actual .476 .238 .524 7.0 5.6


In fact, Russell has been slightly better as a scorer than I projected, using more of the Lakers' plays and shooting a higher percentage inside the arc than his college stats suggested. (That's offset in terms of his overall win percentage, the per-minute version of my wins above replacement player metric, by the Lakers' poor defensive numbers.)

Remember, that projection had Russell atop my stats-only board and second behind Towns when factoring in the scouting consensus. So I'd say he's right on track in terms of what the Lakers were hoping to see.





What's working, and what's not


Ford: Well, most scouts and GMs had him pegged similarly. There was a pretty strong consensus on draft night that he was the second-best prospect.

Personally, I had Porzingis a little higher and that was primarily because of some concerns about Russell's weaknesses: lack of elite athletic ability, good but not great shooting from beyond the arc and pedestrian defense.

Early in the season, all of those concerns seemed to be magnified. I think they are all still legitimate issues. But Russell's scoring ability, passing acumen and red-hot shooting streak from beyond the arc really seem to minimize those concerns.

What do the numbers say are Russell's biggest strengths and weaknesses? And more important, are his strengths eclipsing those weaknesses?

Pelton: My biggest concern about Russell offensively was his inability to get to the foul line, which probably relates to the lack of elite athletic ability. That has carried over. He's attempting only 2.7 free throws per 36 minutes, which isn't good for a player who takes so many shots (15.1 field goal attempts per 36).

Yet Russell has been good enough as a 3-point shooter -- and, perhaps more accurately, prolific enough -- that he has scored with adequate efficiency. And when Russell makes his 3s, as he has since the All-Star break, he's a legitimately outstanding scorer.

Russell's biggest strength remains the ability to create shots. A 23.6 percent usage rate is on the high side for a rookie point guard. He's also a good defensive rebounder for a point guard.

Returning to weaknesses, ESPN's real plus-minus (RPM) backs up the concerns about Russell's defense. His minus-2.4 defensive RPM ranks him in the bottom quartile among point guards.

Does that combination make him a plus player right now? Probably not. But projecting forward, there's little question in my mind Russell will get there given his age and the tendency for young point guards to struggle in the NBA.




How does Russell compare?
Pelton: How would you compare him to other one-and-done PG prospects?

Ford: I don't think anyone's even close this season. I actually personally preferred Emmanuel Mudiay to Russell on draft night, but clearly Russell is having the better rookie year.

I'm still curious how Mudiay adapts next season. It was a pretty big jump for him from China to the NBA. But Russell's superior scoring and shooting ability give him a clear edge right now.

After that, you have to go back to the 2011 draft when Kyrie Irving went No. 1 to find a one-and-done PG with Russell's potential. I think I prefer Irving as a player, but Russell has the ability to be a similar shooter and a more creative passer.

Looking forward to this year's draft doesn't help much either. The only legit one-and-done point guard prospect is Kentucky's Jamal Murray. I love Murray. He's a great, fearless scorer with a crazy high basketball IQ.

But Russell is a better athlete and a much more creative passer. Murray is stronger and a better shooter. If they were both in the draft today, I'd lean Russell over Murray.

What do you see, Kevin?

Pelton: Here's how Russell's performance to date compares to other one-and-done point guards who were drafted in the top 10:



How does Russell compare?
Player Year Win% Usg TS% Reb% Ast%
Kyrie Irving 2012 .615 .289 .566 7.1 8.0
Brandon Jennings 2010 .518 .262 .475 6.2 8.0
John Wall 2011 .482 .240 .494 7.1 9.8
D'Angelo Russell 2016 .476 .238 .524 7.0 5.6
Derrick Rose 2009 .465 .227 .516 6.0 7.7
Mike Conley 2008 .431 .189 .502 5.7 7.2
Brandon Knight 2012 .422 .219 .511 6.1 5.5
Emmanuel Mudiay 2016 .333 .250 .410 6.0 8.4


He's definitely lagging as a playmaker but only Irving has been better than Russell as a scorer at the same age, an encouraging sign given the talent elsewhere on this list.

The early concern about Russell would probably have been better applied to Mudiay. Though there are good signs in terms of his playmaking ability and defense, Mudiay will have to improve dramatically as a scorer to be an effective NBA point guard.

As for Murray, there's no doubting his ability, but I don't think he's a point guard. Playing alongside Tyler Ulis and Isaiah Briscoe, he's averaging only 2.4 assists per game and has really excelled at using off-ball screens to set up outside shots.

I see him as a shooting guard or maybe a complement to a shooting guard who's more effective with the ball in his hands. And given that there are questions about Murray's defense, too, I wouldn't hesitate to take Russell first if they were in the same draft.





Will Russell be a superstar?


Ford: So I guess the question on every Lakers fan's mind is whether Russell is a superstar? Is he the sort of player the Lakers can build their team around?

Looking at where he lands on your list of one-and-done point guards helps a little. He's behind both Irving and John Wall -- both of whom are All-Stars -- and ahead of Derrick Rose (who was a superstar before getting hurt) and Mike Conley. I think all the current evidence points to him being a potential All-Star but not necessarily a superstar. What do you think?

Pelton: Yeah, that's about where I'd land.

My SCHOENE projection system gives a similar assessment. Of the 10 players most similar to Russell at the same age, six became All-Stars: Irving, Gilbert Arenas, Jrue Holiday, Tony Parker, Russell Westbrook and -- most intriguingly to Lakers fans -- Kobe Bryant.

A couple of more young players similar to Russell, Bradley Beal and Brandon Knight, could yet become All-Stars. So I'd give him a pretty good chance of reaching that level.

Superstardom is going to require Russell to max out his development the way Bryant and Westbrook did.

 

[Whips-n-Chains]

Can anyone with ESPN Insider post any recent articles regarding Josh Jackson and Michigan State? Please n thanks!

 

[Skooby]

Can anyone with ESPN Insider post any recent articles regarding Josh Jackson and Michigan State? Please n thanks!

Which one? Drop a link...

 

[Whips-n-Chains]

Which one? Drop a link...

Thanks! I just looked but there aren't any recent ones

 

[Skooby]

I found some:

Thanks! I just looked but there aren't any recent ones

Decision preview: ESPN 100 No. 3 Josh Jackson

Josh Jackson

• 6-foot-7 | Small Forward
• Southfield, Mich. | Prolific Prep (California)
• No. 3 overall | No. 2 small forward

Recruitment so far

• Arizona -- Official visit: December 19
• Kansas -- Official visit: January 22
• Michigan State -- Official visit: March 4

There was never much of a sign that this recruitment would be over quickly. The first sign was that Jackson didn’t even decide on a high school for his final two pre-college years until just a couple of weeks before his junior season was set to begin. Moreover, Jackson’s mother came out two summers ago and said her son wasn’t being recruited by anyone -- an obvious eyebrow-raiser given that he’s been considered a top-five talent for a few years. He came out with a top nine last March, but didn’t make much progress. An unofficial visit to Maryland occurred late last summer, but the Terrapins slowly fell out of the running despite the close Under Armour connection. As his senior season progressed, things began to coalesce. There were three schools in pursuit: Arizona, Kansas and Michigan State. After taking a trip to Michigan State this past weekend, Jackson has now taken official visits to all three schools. Could a decision be imminent? That remains to be seen. Jackson will likely choose to wait until the dust settles after the season -- especially with the NCAA pushing back the deadline date for underclassmen to withdraw from the NBA Draft.

Contender: Arizona Wildcats

The Wildcats have made Jackson a priority for a long time, going out to California and visiting with Jackson several times during the fall. They also received the first official visit back in December, and haven’t let up in their pursuit of Jackson. Five-star Kobi Simmons (No. 18) will likely take the reins at the point guard spot next season, with Allonzo Trier at the two. But Miller has craved a dynamic two-way player on the wing. Jackson fits that mold perfectly, given his ability to defend at one end and push the ball in transition offensively. One thing to watch with Arizona’s pursuit of Jackson is the recent commitment of Rawle Alkins (No. 17), a five-star wing. Alkins was likely sold on the fact he can play alongside Simmons and Trier in a dangerous offensive perimeter trio. Does that change anything for Jackson? That’s doubtful, as Arizona has been pursuing Alkins, Jackson and is expected to be involved for recent Alabama decommit Terrance Ferguson (No. 13). Miller won’t back off Jackson (or Ferguson) despite Alkins’ commitment. With that said, Arizona was likely the front-runner for Jackson over the past few months -- will that remain the same moving forward?

Contender: Michigan State Spartans

Tom Izzo has arguably his best recruiting class in 2016, with five-star prospects Miles Bridges (No. 6) and Josh Langford (No. 14) joined by top-50 recruits Cassius Winston (No. 30) and Nick Ward (No. 39). But Jackson would obviously take it to another level. The Spartans have been hoping to get Jackson to return home to Michigan for his college career, and they’ve positioned themselves well heading into the final few weeks. Jackson is close with Bridges, and has known Winston since he was eight years old. Jackson also has to be impressed by what Denzel Valentine has done during his time in East Lansing; Izzo gave him the freedom to utilize his all-around skill set. Jackson doesn’t have a true position, and would benefit from that sort of freedom. Jackson has said in the past that he thinks Izzo is one of the best college coaches in the country -- because his teams never get out-toughed. Jackson is arguably the best perimeter defender in the 2016 class; Izzo would love to get his hands on him. With Alkins committing to Arizona, does that push Jackson to the Midwest?

Contender: Kansas Jayhawks

Much like 2015, the Jayhawks got off to a slow start with the 2016 class. They missed out on Ferguson last summer, and exited the early signing period with only one player in tow: Mitch Lightfoot (No. 64). However, they’ve begun to pick it over the past couple months, getting five-star Udoka Azubuike (No. 22) and positioning themselves well with several remaining top prospects. Where does Jackson fit in? Bill Self has had Kansas in the mix for him for a long time, and they received an official visit last month. After the visit, Jackson raved about his experience at Allen Fieldhouse and has pointed to Kansas’ use of Andrew Wiggins as a path to follow. Obviously Jackson is likely to start wherever he goes to college, but the Jayhawks could return all three perimeter starters if Wayne Selden doesn’t go to the NBA. Moreover, Kansas has been discussed as a legitimate option for Ferguson since he decommitted from Alabama. Jackson is expected to be in Lawrence for a high school tournament later this month; will Kansas get him on campus again? The Jayhawks are certainly in the mix at this point, especially with Alkins committing to Arizona.






SCOUTING REPORT
ESPN Analyst
Updated 01/21/2016

Strengths:
Jackson is a tough and athletic forward that is a fearless competitor. He has established himself as a tenacious rebounder and he plays with a never ending motor. Comfortable and confident in both a fast paced game or a grind it out affair Jackson displays versatility and his productivity level is at a double-double clip. Explosive with the ball in his hands or with his vertical bounce he displays excellent body control to match his athletic ability. He also is a great decision maker when being pressured and plays with a solid basketball IQ which enhances his assist game. Jackson has the toughness and quickness to be a multiple position defender. He already utilizes his physical tools to protect the rim with his shot blocking prowess and is a high steal guy anticipating passing lanes.

Weaknesses:
Jackson needs to become more efficient with the use of a dribble move and become consistent behind the arc without sacrificing his inside game. Currently he is shooting a poor percentage from the free throw line a statistic that must improve as he grows in the game. He has triple-double potential if he stays in attack mode at all times and not choose to blend into the game at times.

Bottom Line:
Jackson is a versatile wing that is tough, competes and has an excellent motor and feel for the game. His explosiveness is elite and he is the ultimate finisher, when he adds a consistent perimeter jumper and as he continues to learn the game his development takes a huge leap forward.

 

[satam55]

@Skooby Can you post this?:

 

[Skooby]

@Skooby Can you post this?:

Insider
Who really runs the state of Texas in recruiting?


In May of 2014, a tweet by former Texas A&M defensive coordinator Mark Snyder took the recruiting competition to another level in the state of Texas.

That tweet by Snyder followed the commitment of former Aggies quarterback Kyler Murray, a huge recruiting win for A&M with momentum on the trail continuing to build. The Aggies were coming off back-to-back top-10 classes in 2013 and 2014 (No. 4 in 2014), and seemingly headed to a third straight after Texas fell off on the field at the end of the Mack Brown era and beginning of Charlie Strong era. Thus the #WRTS ("We run this state") hashtag was born and Texas A&M's staff, recruits and fans began using it daily, all while enjoying more big wins in the Lone Star State over arch-rival Texas than before Brown arrived in Austin in 1998.

Then, the Aggies' momentum took what many believed to be a hit Dec. 19, 2014, when Malik Jefferson committed to Texas in what was the first impactful recruiting win for Charlie Strong over Kevin Sumlin and the Aggies.

Jefferson became a #GameChanger for Strong and Texas, paving the way for a Top 10 class and impressive finish to the 2015 class, followed up by a signing day smorgasbord and second straight Top 10 class in February 2016.

But it's not just about Texas and Texas A&M.Jeffrey Okudah, was in attendance and weighed in on the subject.

“Right now, I don’t think the numbers lie,” said Okudah. “Texas still runs the state in recruiting just because they have had two strong classes without even having two strong seasons to back it up. That speaks to what Texas can do when they start winning again.”

Okudah’s thoughts are shared by No. 40-ranked overall 2017 prospect and top target of every regional program, Baron Browning.

“I would say Texas,” said Browning. “I mean, just how their class has finished in the last two years. They have had two top 10 classes in a row, so I would say they run the state.”

ESPN Junior 300 running back Eno Benjamin echoed the statements of Okudah and Browning, which is significant considering Benjamin released a Top 10 Monday that included Baylor with Texas, Texas A&M, TCU and Oklahoma having yet to offer.

“I’m going to actually have to say Texas right now," Benjamin said. "Just because of the guys they picked up in 2015 and the class just signed. They have the players needed to bring Texas back to where they were back in the day.”

As we see in recruiting, momentum can swing and switch in a hurry. After having a tougher time winning battles for top targets in Texas after Texas A&M’s move and tidal wave of early momentum in the SEC, Oklahoma has rebounded after the run to the College Football Playoff.

“The Sooners have the momentum,” said ESPN Junior 300 and Oklahoma verbal Tyrese Robinson. “Oklahoma recruits Texas guys, and I feel like we have something special going in 2017.”

Robinson’s opinion seems to have plenty of credibility, with the Sooners already having three ESPN Junior 300 verbals after signing only one in February.

While 2017 Under Armour All-America offensive guard selection and Texas Tech commitment Jack Anderson acknowledges the traditional powers have the momentum, he believes there is room for one more program.

“That’s a tough one," said Anderson. "I think A&M is doing some good things, Texas is doing well after some down years, and I think Tech is one that people will be talking about after this season when the defense improves and I help bring guys in this class.”

The question was not just asked of prospects in the 2017 class, but 2018 also, as the juniors-to-be are keeping close tabs on where the momentum sits in the state. Plano Prestonwood cornerback Verone McKinley III says it’s up for grabs headed into the 2016 season.


“That’s a tough one,” said McKinley III. “I can’t tell you because Texas had a great class this year, A&M seemed to be putting a pretty good 2017 class together so far, and TCU and Baylor are good too. One of them probably is, but it’s up for grabs.”

Class of 2018 offensive tackle Darrell Simpson weighed in as well, also mentioning TCU as in the conversation.

“I mean, A&M is up there but they have had coaches move on out and now we have to get used to new coaches there. I would say A&M and TCU. TCU has a love they show, and keep on you.”

What is clear heading into the 2016 season is that there is not a definitive opinion on which teams currently runs the state on the recruiting trail, but Texas is positioned to grab hold again and regain the “cool school” moniker with a successful season on the field. If the Longhorns nor Aggies can’t get over the hump on the field, then Baylor, Oklahoma and TCU will be positioned to place the talented state more in question than ever before.

 

[954UAlreadyknow]

Projecting Kentucky's big stars in NBA draft