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Skooby

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The 10 non-QBs contenders can't lose - NFL

Much appreciated if we could get this one in here.
Rob Gronkowski most valuable non-QB to contending teams

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady was on a Hall of Fame track before tight end Rob Gronkowski came along in 2010, but the numbers surrounding their on-field relationship are nonetheless staggering. Take this one, for instance: Brady has been twice as likely to throw a touchdown pass when Gronkowski is on the field with him.

That statistical correlation (see chart) lines up with what any football analyst can see in the games, making Gronkowski my choice as the non-quarterback a contending team could least afford to lose. Settling on nine other players in my top-10 list required tougher decisions. An undrafted Seattle Seahawk made the list over Marshawn Lynch and Kam Chancellor, while the Dallas Cowboys' lone representative earned a spot despite having played only 34 snaps for the organization.

An important note: This is a look at non-quarterbacks deemed most valuable to their teams' specific postseason equations, not a ranking of the best non-quarterbacks on contending teams.

1. Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
Gronkowski's return to health played a leading role in jump-starting New England's offense last season. Since 2010, when Gronk arrived via the draft, Brady has produced a top-five Total QBR score with Gronkowski on the field and a top-12 version when Gronkowski was out of the game. His passer rating without Gronkowski (87.7) would rank between the ones for Matt Schaub (88.0) and Andy Dalton (87.3) among 30 qualifying quarterbacks since 2010. Brady's passer rating with Gronkowski on the field (105.5) would trail only the 110.7 forAaron Rodgers over that span. The chart below speaks loudly.

Von Miller, OLB, Denver Broncos[/paste:font]
The Broncos are one of 11 teams over the past five seasons to start 5-0. They rank last among those teams -- by far -- in points per game, expected points added per game and yards per game. The 2013 Broncos are also on that list of 5-0 teams, except they ranked first in all those offensive categories. That is how much things have changed in Denver.

Moral of the story? Denver is undefeated because of its defense, and Miller is widely regarded as the best player on that defense. He ranks first in Pro Football Focus grading for edge defenders this season, just ahead of Khalil Mack andJustin Houston. While the Broncos do have good overall talent on defense -- Chris Harris and Brandon Marshall were versatile players under consideration here -- Miller really is the driving force. The team's current formula for winning would need tweaking without him.

3. Greg Hardy, DE, Dallas Cowboys
A weak NFC East and Tony Romo's eventual return places the Cowboys into the contender category (at least for me) despite their 2-3 record. Hardy dominated against New England in his Cowboys debut, collecting two sacks and forcing a fumble. He finished that game with the highest individual PFF grade for any Cowboys defender in Week 5.

Hardy's presence helped the Cowboys hang with the Patriots for a half, despite little support from a Romo-less offense. Continued play near that level could help Dallas compete until the QB's return. And if the Cowboys can remain in the playoff picture, Hardy's presence would greatly improve Dallas' Super Bowl chances.

4. Luke Kuechly, MLB, Carolina Panthers
The case against placing Kuechly on this list is easy to make but also superficial. Yes, the Panthers are 4-0 despite getting only 32 snaps from Kuechly, including zero since Week 1. Yes, cornerback Josh Norman has been the defensive star for Carolina. But here are the starting quarterbacks the Panthers have faced this season: Blake Bortles, Ryan Mallett, Luke McCown and Jameis Winston. These are not the types of quarterbacks Carolina will have to beat if the team is still playing deep in the postseason.

In recent seasons, the Panthers have gone as far as their Kuechly-led defense could take them. They have gone 17-5 in the regular season when their defense ranked in the top five for expected points added per game (2013, 2015). They are 20-27-1 the rest of the time, when their defenses ranked between 19th and 31st. Carolina's quarterback play has been stable over that span, with QBR scores between 56.1 and 60.4.

5. Jared Veldheer, LT, Arizona Cardinals
Deone Bucannon was a sleeper consideration given all he does in the Cardinals' defense. But keeping Carson Palmer healthy is the No. 1 priority for Arizona this season, and no player other than the quarterback himself figures into that equation more prominently than the Cardinals' current left tackle. Veldheer has not been at his best so far this season, but his addition before the 2014 season solved one of Arizona's most gnawing problems (so well, in fact, that Veldheer is increasingly taken for granted). Losing Veldheer would destabilize the line and complicate life for Palmer, left guard Mike Iupati and the offense in general.

6. Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons
Jones is the highest-rated receiver in PFF grading this season and a big part of Atlanta's high-scoring offense. On the bright side for the Falcons, quarterbackMatt Ryan had 10 touchdown passes with only one interception when Jones was off the field last season. And when injuries appeared to slow Jones over the past couple weeks, the Falcons found other ways to win. Could they do that consistently over an extended period if opponents no longer had to build their defensive game plans around containing Jones? That is debatable.

7. Clay Matthews, ILB/OLB, Green Bay Packers
Problems on defense and/or special teams have derailed the Packers' championship chances in recent seasons. While it's true that Aaron Rodgers' presence keeps Green Bay in the playoff conversation almost by default, the Packers' expectations are higher than that, putting pressure on the defense to upgrade its performance. It's tough to envision that happening without Matthews' talent and versatility playing a key role.

There were candidates to consider from the Packers' offense, but Rodgers and coach Mike McCarthy have shown an ability to produce at high levels using multiple styles and personnel combinations. Rodgers' QBR score this season is actually higher than it was in 2014, when top receiver Jordy Nelson was available and Rodgers won MVP honors.

8. Michael Bennett, DL, Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks aren't quite as good in their secondary thanks to personnel changes at cornerback, putting additional pressure on the defensive front. Bennett and teammate Cliff Avril are the key players from that standpoint. Both could merit spots on this list, but Bennett's versatility sets him apart.

A coach whose team has faced Bennett compared him to J.J. Watt in terms of disruptiveness. "Bennett is so quick and disruptive, and he has top-notch instincts," this coach said. "Some guys are dumbasses who wouldn't see it coming if alarm bells went off. 72 sees everything. He feels everything."

Marshawn Lynch would be another good Seahawks candidate, but backupThomas Rawls has topped 100 yards two separate times with Lynch out due to injury.

9. Tyler Eifert, TE, Cincinnati Bengals
You could make a case for receiver A.J. Green representing the Bengals instead, but the numbers clearly show what Cincinnati watchers have known intuitively: Andy Dalton has thrown far too many interceptions over the years when forcing the ball to Green. For his career (counting playoffs), Dalton has 36 touchdowns with 34 interceptions targeting Green, compared to a 75/40 TD/INT split targeting everyone else.

Eifert's return to health this season gives Dalton a badly needed alternative. Eifert, who trails only Gronkowski among tight ends in PFF grading, leads all players at the position in touchdown receptions (five) while ranking third in receptions (24).

10. Darrelle Revis, CB, New York Jets
ESPN's Football Power Index gives the Jets a 72 percent shot at reaching the playoffs (for the AFC East, it's 98 percent for New England, 52 percent for Buffalo and 1 percent for Miami). That and a 3-1 record put the Jets into the "contender" category, which makes Revis an obvious candidate for consideration here.

The Jets know they can count on Revis in man coverage, which gives Todd Bowles and the defensive staff additional freedom in their blitz packages. That is key for a team that wants to win with defense and a strong ground game. Speaking of that ground game, Chris Ivory also was a consideration for this list.
 

Lucky_Lefty

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As Lorenzo Cain dashes frantically around the bases and the Kansas City Royalswin the pennant … as Ben Revere rightly takes out his frustration over a strike call on a trash can … as the New York Mets weigh the weariness level of Jacob deGrom before determining their World Series rotation … other teams have moved on with the business of the offseason.

Some notes from all around MLB:

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1. Some evaluators have noted that there will be an enormous volume of very good to great players available this winter, either via free agency or trade, including: Zack Greinke, Jason Heyward, David Price,Alex Gordon, Yoenis Cespedes, Johnny Cueto, Ben Zobrist, Jordan Zimmermann, Justin Upton, Chris Davis, Matt Wieters.

"A lot of these guys will be looking for big contracts," one executive said. "But I don't know if everybody is going to come close to what they're looking for. Some years there aren't a lot of good players available, but that's not going to be the case this winter."

No. And some evaluators believe that the trade market could water down the market, if the likes of Sonny Gray, Yasiel Puig, Andrelton Simmons and others are added to the flood of available players.

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2. Another player who could be available: Brewers catcher Jonathan Lucroy, but only in the right deal. Milwaukee has told other teams that it's willing to listen to offers on anybody on its roster.

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3. There is a ton of industry speculation that the Giants are going to take a serious run at Greinke after the right-hander opts out of his deal with the Dodgers. If so, San Francisco's rotation theoretically could be comprised of Madison Bumgarner, Greinke, Mike Leake, Jake Peavy and Matt Cain, with Chris Heston and other young starters providing depth.

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4. The Washington ownership is heavily involved in the hiring of the Nationals' next manager, which is why a name-brand choice is expected. Bud Black is being brought in for a second interview, as is Dusty Baker, as James Wagner and Chelsea Janes write.

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5. John Middleton, part-owner of the Phillies, is said by rival evaluators to be the driving force behind the team's push for a general manager engrained in analytics. As Jerry Crasnick has reported, the Phillies' process is down to three candidates.

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6. The Pirates have become fertile ground for other teams to raid, given their success, and pitching guru Jim Benedict was hired away by the Marlins.

Meanwhile, the Pirates have been in informal discussions with former Red Sox GM Ben Cherington about some sort of role for him in their front office. Cherington and Pittsburgh GM Neal Huntington have known each other for years, and share the same alma mater, but Cherington is determining what he wants to do.

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7. The interest between the Miami Marlins and former Dodgers manager Don Mattingly appears to be mutual, writes Barry Jackson.

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8. The Padres continue to look for a manager. Sources say they're in the process of deciding what direction to take for 2016, either trying to prop up the older group of players who would spearhead another run at the division title, or start a serious rebuild after the team's failed attempt to go all-in.
 

Lucky_Lefty

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1. Stephen Curry
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Team: Golden State Warriors
RPM point guard rank: No. 1
WARP point guard rank: No. 1
Overall #NBArank: No. 4

Curry didn't instigate the NBA's pace-and-space trend, but he epitomizes it. He has a real chance to be the iconic player of his era.

Hidden talent: We know Curry has mastered the art of the shot. What gets overlooked is that tracking data has him in the 98th percentile in scoring plays per pass over the past couple years. He'd be great even if he shot like a mortal.

Taking it to the next level: Barring major injury, Curry is headed for Springfield. The duration of his peak will determine how high he climbs on the all-time point guard chart.

2. Chris Paul
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Team: Los Angeles Clippers
RPM rank: No. 2
WARP rank: No. 2
#NBArank: No. 6

Few NBA stars have been so consistent. Paul has ranked eighth or better in WARP in seven of the past eight seasons, yet it feels as if we take him for granted.

Hidden talent: Paul is such a pick-and-roll maestro with the ball in his hands that we forget just how good a pure shooter he is. He's ranked in the 96th percentile or better in catch-and-shoot situations in each of the past three seasons, per Synergy Sports research.

Taking it to the next level: Paul would be the first to tell you that winning a title completes his career puzzle.

3. Russell Westbrook
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Team: Oklahoma City Thunder
RPM rank: No. 3
WARP rank: No. 3
#NBArank: No. 7

He's the closest thing the NBA has to a superhero. Westbrook does everything on the court, though sometimes his will to do everything is his undoing.

Hidden talent: Westbrook's passes are exceptionally productive. He attracts as much attention as any NBA player. Last season, Westbrook created a scoring play on roughly every fifth pass, second to San Antonio's Manu Ginobili.

Taking it to the next level: Trust! An example: Westbrook passed on 23.8 percent of his drives last season, per SportVu research. That's about three percent less often than Monta Ellis did.

4. John Wall
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Team: Washington Wizards
RPM rank: No. 6
WARP rank: No. 5
#NBArank: No. 11

Wall has gradually climbed the pecking order of the league's deepest position. At the precipice of his prime, Wall's Wizards unveiled an up-tempo scheme that should make the most of his ability.

Hidden talent: Wall has always been a shockingly good shot-blocker. Last season, he reached the 74th percentile in overall rim protection, per SportVu research. The guy is a point guard.

Taking it to the next level: As Wall and Bradley Beal adapt to Randy Wittman's new system, Wall should improve his turnover rate and shot selection. A little more efficiency puts Wall up in the elite category.

5. Damian Lillard
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Team: Portland Trail Blazers
RPM rank: No. 9
WARP rank: No. 7
#NBArank: No. 15

Now that Lillard is the unrivaled alpha option in Portland, his playmaking ability can climb to the same level as his off-the-charts shot-making prowess.

Hidden talent: A big hole in Lillard's game was his inability to finish at the basket. Last season, he improved his rate at the rim from 50 percent to 62 while getting fewer shots blocked.

Taking it to the next level: That very ability to play smarter in the paint will bleed into Lillard's playmaking. As Portland surrounds him with shooters, Lillard's assist rate will soar. Then we can focus on his defense.
 

Lucky_Lefty

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@Alexander The Great

6. Kyle Lowry
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Team: Toronto Raptors
RPM rank: No. 6
WARP rank: No. 7
#NBArank: No. 34

Lowry can be a divisive player in debates like these and his shooting slump at the end of last season didn't help matters. When right, Lowry excels at everything a point guard needs to do.

Hidden talent: The undersized Lowry is a sneaky good defender. He's strong and determined and all that stuff, but more tangibly, few point guards draw a higher rate of offensive fouls.

Taking it to the next level: Lowry needs to shoot the ball at career norms to climb back to level of 2013-14, when he was a top-10 player in the league. During preseason, he looked ready to do that.

7. Kyrie Irving
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Team: Cleveland Cavaliers
RPM rank: No. 16
WARP rank: No. 4
#NBArank: No. 18

Irving's bottom line doesn't change much, but last season he evolved. By retaining his full value while adapting his game alongside LeBron James, Irving's impact has never been greater.

Hidden talent: Irving is one of the most dynamic isolation players in the league. While the Cavs don't want to overdo 1-on-1 action, it would be an essential weapon against Curry in a Finals rematch.

Taking it to the next level: We could talk about Irving's defense, but we all know what Irving has to prove: that he can remain healthy through a regular season and a deep playoff run.

8. Mike Conley
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Team: Memphis Grizzlies
RPM rank: No. 10
WARP rank: No. 8
#NBArank: No. 20

Conley is as constant as the blues on Beale Street. His level of production mainly varies with how many minutes he plays.

Hidden talent: Conley's more mature defensive approach plays well with the grindhouse style of the Grizzlies. He has become less prone to taking chances. Better at position defense, Conley cracked the league's top 10 percent for drawing offensive fouls last season.

Taking it to the next level: At 28, Conley is what he is. The last key area of growth within his grasp is ball protection, where his turnover rate remained worse than the league median last season.

9. Eric Bledsoe
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Team: Phoenix Suns
RPM rank: No. 5
WARP rank: No. 7
#NBArank: No. 37

RPM, WARP, take your pick, because the metrics love Bledsoe. The only thing holding him back in these rankings at this point is a short track record.

Hidden talent: Among our top 10 point guards, Bledsoe is the best defender of the bunch. His defensive RPM has reached the 97th percentile. That rating is backed up by pretty much every defensive metric we have.

Taking it to the next level: Few players have a bigger disparity in accuracy between shooting off the dribble and on catch-and-shoot looks. Playing alongside Brandon Knight, it's essential that Bledsoe becomes a more consistent standstill shooter.

10. Ricky Rubio
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Team: Minnesota Timberwolves
RPM rank: No. 4
WARP rank: No. 17
#NBArank: No. 64

Rubio's strengths are stronger and his weaknesses weaker than just about any other player's on the board. Including his international career, it feels as if Rubio has been around forever, but he's still only 25. He'll put it all together some day, and this feels like the year.

Hidden talent: Whether you look at defensive RPM, steal rate, offensive fouls or rebounds, Rubio is elite on defense. If Bledsoe isn't the best point guard defender, it's Rubio.

Taking it to the next level: Turnovers, finishing and outside shooting -- Rubio has been near the bottom of the barrel in each. The outside shot should probably be the priority.

The middle third
11. George Hill, Indiana Pacers
12. Goran Dragic, Miami Heat
13. Jeff Teague, Atlanta Hawks
14. Ty Lawson, Houston Rockets
15. Jrue Holiday, New Orleans Pelicans
16. Kemba Walker, Charlotte Hornets
17. Marcus Smart, Boston Celtics
18. Reggie Jackson, Detroit Pistons
19. Derrick Rose, Chicago Bulls
20. Deron Williams, Dallas Mavericks


The efficiency and two-way ability of Hill makes it really tempting to place him ahead of Rubio, who is a bit of a wild card. My fellow Chicagoans will hate Rose's rating. My thinking is that the Bulls have become Jimmy Butler's team. Besides, the 19th-ranked point guard in a point guard league is still a very good player.
 

Lucky_Lefty

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@Alexander The Great

The bottom third
21. Tony Parker, San Antonio Spurs
22. Rajon Rondo, Sacramento Kings
23. Elfrid Payton, Orlando Magic
24. Michael Carter-Williams, Milwaukee Bucks
25. Emmanuel Mudiay, Denver Nuggets
26. Jarrett Jack, Brooklyn Nets
27. Isaiah Canaan, Philadelphia 76ers
28. D'Angelo Russell, Los Angeles Lakers
29. Raul Neto, Utah Jazz
30. Jose Calderon, New York Knicks

There are a few young guys in this group who will jet up the rankings over the next few seasons. Young players are inefficient, especially when they're point guards. Parker's placement might cause some angst, but he is coming off an ineffective, injury-plagued season and has a lot of mileage. He's still vital to the Spurs, but the addition of LaMarcus Aldridge is going to soak up some of Parker's possessions.
 
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