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Skooby

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TrillCauleyStein said:
Pelton: Drummond the next Hack-a-Shaq target
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Next Hack-a-Shaq victim: Andre Drummond

In his fourth season, Detroit Pistons center Andre Drummond has been one of the league's most exciting young players. With Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy building an attack around his skills, Drummond already has three 20-20 performances in Detroit's first eight games.

Unfortunately, Drummond's play means fans might see less of him dominating the paint and more of him where he's worst: at the free throw line. So far in his NBA career, Drummond has actually been a worse foul shooter (39.6 percent) than his opposing number on Saturday, Los Angeles Clippers center DeAndre Jordan (41.5 percent career, and 40.2 percent over the same span). Yet Jordan has been intentionally fouled more than five times as frequently as Drummond over that period.

With Detroit playing like a playoff contender early in the season and Drummond proving he's one of the league's top centers, expect him to emerge as a Hack-a-Shaq target like fellow big men Jordan, Dwight Howard and namesake Shaquille O'Neal before him.

Who gets hacked and why

Thanks to my research last year in identifying every intentional foul of a poor free throw shooter I could find over the past three seasons, I'm able to study how well various factors predict the likelihood of a player getting hacked.

There are four main factors. Naturally, the dominant factor is free throw shooting, which explains about 20 percent of the variation in intentional foul rates.

Regression analysis of the data suggests an otherwise average player will get hacked twice as frequently for every 10 percent worse he shoots from the line. In other words, a 50 percent free throw shooter will get fouled twice as often as a 60 percent shooter, but only half as often as a 40 percent shooter like Drummond or Jordan.

Once foul shooting has been controlled, the relationship with other factors is evident. Three more showed up as statistically significant:
On their own, none of these other factors makes a huge difference in terms of predicting intentional fouls; basically, they represent a difference of a handful of hacks per year. Taken together, however, they can be powerful.

Take Jordan, for example. He has always been a poor free throw shooter, but as recently as 2012-13, he was intentionally fouled just 13 times all season. That total went up more than 10 times to 137 in 2014-15, including the playoffs, as Jordan developed into an All-NBA center.

Team success is important as well. Of the 71 stretches when a player was hacked during the 2014-15 regular season, 52 of them (73 percent) came when his team was leading. Since intentional fouls are most frequently used to extend games and facilitate comebacks, players on winning teams are inevitably targeted more than those on lottery clubs.

Drummond becomes a target

When I wrote about intentional fouls last season, I noted Drummond as the most obvious candidate who had rarely been hacked -- just 13 times all of 2014-15.

In the context of his team, as noted by the Piston Powered blog, the non-fouls made more sense. Detroit hasn't won more than 32 games in a season since Drummond's arrival, and his prodigious box-score production outstripped his ability to influence games as measured by ESPN's real plus-minus.

This year looks like a different story. Detroit is off to a 5-3 start, and Drummond's development is a big reason why. Playing with more space now that the Pistons have replaced Greg Monroe's overlapping skill set with stretch-4s likeErsan Ilyasova, Marcus Morris and Anthony Tolliver, Drummond has averaged 18.8 points and a league-leading 19.3 rebounds per game this season.

Alas, his woes at the free throw line haven't gotten any better: Drummond is shooting 39.3 percent from the charity stripe.

Teams usually have two goals when intentionally fouling players like Drummond. One, naturally, is the hope that his poor foul shooting will produce less efficient offense. Indeed, Drummond is 1-of-10 from the line after hacks this season and has shot 25 percent following intentional fouls over the past two years.

The other potential benefit is putting a good player on the bench. And that's where Drummond may now be the league's most attractive target for intentional fouls.

After all, the Clippers can at least go to talented veteran Josh Smith when Jordan is struggling at the line. Monroe's departure has left a hole behind Drummond on the Pistons' depth chart.

Detroit signed former San Antonio Spurs center Aron Baynes to a three-year, $19.5 million deal to back up Drummond, but according to NBA.com/Stats, the Pistons have been outscored by 23.4 points per 100 possessions with Drummond on the bench. That partially reflects the overall weakness of Detroit's second unit, which has been battered when Drummond and starting point guard Reggie Jackson rest simultaneously.

The Pistons have been far more effective when Drummond -- instead of Baynes -- plays with backup point guard Steve Blake, however. So anytime Van Gundy is forced to remove his starting center -- as he did in the face of intentional fouls in the fourth quarter last Friday at Phoenix -- it's a win for opponents.

The game against the Suns, which Detroit ended up winning, is one of just two times this season Drummond has been intentionally fouled. If the Pistons keep winning and Drummond continues dominating, expect more in the future.

In fact, based on the past track record of intentional fouls, projections for player win percentage and free throw percentage from my SCHOENE projection system and team win percentage from ESPN's Basketball Power Index, Drummond is as likely a target as Jordan.

EXPECTED INTENTIONAL FOULS PER 36 MINUTES
Player Team PF/36 2015-16 Total
DeAndre Jordan LAC 0.26 9
Andre Drummond DET 0.26 5
Ian Mahinmi IND 0.13 3
Hassan Whiteside MIA 0.12 0
Andrew Bogut GSW 0.12 0
Dwight Howard HOU 0.11 0
Mason Plumlee POR 0.10 0
Steven Adams OKC 0.10 0
Ed Davis POR 0.10 0
Clint Capela HOU 0.10 0

Beyond Dwight and DeAndre

Part of NBA commissioner Adam Silver's rationale for why the league didn't press to outlaw the Hack-a-Shaq last summer was the limited number of players being intentionally fouled. "For the most part, it's two players," he said in May, referring to Jordan and Howard. "So then the question becomes, should we be making that rule change largely for two teams and two players?"

We can safely add Drummond to the list as a third player, and now that Ian Mahinmi is starting for the Indiana Pacers, expect him to get hacked more frequently, as well. The trend continues to move toward more intentional fouls. There have already been 19 of them this season, nearly as many as I tracked last season through the month of December (22).

Drummond and Jordan can be thrilling to watch around the rim. Let's hope they get that opportunity on Saturday, rather than dueling at the free throw line.
 
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GreatestLaker said:
Ford/Pelton: Was Russell right for Lakers?
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Is D'Angelo Russell the right guy for the Lakers? Is L.A. holding him back?



Is D'Angelo Russell underachieving?


Chad Ford: Three of the top four picks in the 2015 draft are off to terrific starts. Karl-Anthony Towns has been a double-double machine for the Minnesota Timberwolves, Jahlil Okafor is averaging 20 PPG for the Philadelphia 76ersand Kristaps Porzingis is having a major impact on the New York Knicks. There's a lot to be excited about there.

But the No. 2 overall pick in the draft, Los Angeles Lakers point guard D'Angelo Russell, is struggling a little. Lakers fans appear worried that their team either picked the wrong guy or doesn't know how to develop him. Coach Byron Scott and Kobe Bryant have gone out of their way to praise Porzingis.

Russell is getting decent minutes, though he often finds himself benched in the fourth quarter by Scott. But his numbers are shaky. He's averaging fewer than 10 PPG while shooting worse than 40 percent from the field and just 31 percent from 3-point range.

I know your projections loved Russell before the draft. NBA folks loved him too; he finished No. 2 on our Big Board. What's going wrong, Kevin?

Kevin Pelton: Here's the thing: I'm not sure that anything's really going all that wrong. For the most part, Russell's advanced stats are similar to what my college translations projected for him. In fact, he's shooting slightly better on 2-point attempts (45.5 percent) than his Ohio State performance suggested (43.4 percent).

Russell hasn't been as good overall because he's coming up short in a few key areas -- his 3-point percentage, as you mentioned (he was projected for 35.2 percent), his assist rate (5.0 per 100 team plays vs. a projected 6.0) and his free throw rate (3.5 percent of the plays he's used, as compared to a projected 6.8 percent).

I am concerned about the lack of free throws, which could limit Russell's upside. Overall, though, he isn't playing that poorly. I think Towns and Porzingis have been so good that it's creating unrealistic expectations for Russell.

Additionally, I think the tendency to reduce a player's production to highlights (whether on SportsCenter or on Twitter) means a player like Emmanuel Mudiay, who is making a lot of things happen but has a worse PER due to missed shots and turnovers, appears better than Russell, who has largely been in the background.





Are the Lakers getting in the way of Russell's development?


Ford: I believe we all think the 3-point shooting will come. He's not the first rookie who's taken a little while to adjust to the longer 3-point line in the NBA.

The assists can also be partially explained by the fact that Russell just doesn't have the ball in his hands to make those plays as often as he did at Ohio State. Jordan Clarkson is in the backcourt with him and shares the ballhandling duties. And then there's Bryant. While he doesn't dominate the ball the same way he once did, he's still the focal point of the offense in LA.

To what extent can we chalk up Russell's numbers to his situation? Would we be seeing him meet his projections if he had the ball more like Mudiay has in Denver? Or is he just not playing with the same confidence and aggressiveness that Mudiay is (for good and for bad)?

Pelton: That's the million-dollar question, right? Believe it or not, according to SportVU tracking on NBA.com/Stats, Russell actually leads the Lakers in time of possession with the ball in his hands four minutes per game. But the Lakers have five players handling the ball at least two minutes per game. By contrast, the Nuggets have just three. So Mudiay's average time and dribbles per touch are higher than Russell's.

As much as everyone wants to criticize Scott here, I think Lakers general manager Mitch Kupchak deserves a greater share of the blame. The Lakers already had Clarkson and Bryant on the roster before drafting Russell, then went out and signed another guard who needs the ball in his hands (Lou Williams) plus a veteran point guard (Marcelo Huertas).

So this roster doesn't seem conducive at all to developing Russell if that's really the Lakers' goal. Is there a solution here in the short term?



Can the Lakers rebuild around Russell?


Ford: Patience, I guess -- which, ironically, the Lakers decided they didn't have when they passed on Porzingis. You're right in noticing that all the Lakers' perimeter players have high usage rates. They all need the ball in their hands.

That won't change for Bryant, Clarkson or Williams -- and we can't leave out Nick Young. That's the way they play, and there's very little Scott can do about it. The bigs on the Lakers don't stretch the floor, either. Assuming the Lakers really think Russell is the guy, then some of these guys need to be replaced by what would really complement Russell -- a few lights-out 3-point shooters.

Given what you've seen from Bryant, Clarkson, Williams and Young, should the Lakers (or can the Lakers) shake up the roster to get Russell going? Not sure Williams or Young have much value, Clarkson doesn't make any money and Kobe has a no-trade clause. What would you do?

Pelton: Despite what I just said, I do think a coaching change would help. Scott has consistently said that his focus is on winning games rather than developing players, and that doesn't make sense for a franchise that's going nowhere this season and needs its young prospects to break through to convince free agents to sign on.

Clarkson is part of that group, so the Lakers shouldn't move him. Kobe isn't going anywhere. And Young probably has no trade value. That leaves Williams, who came at a good price (three years, $21 million) and should be tradable if the Lakers can find a team in need of bench scoring.





Did the Lakers make a mistake in selecting Russell?


Ford: Given the situational qualifiers we spoke about, do you think the Lakers made the right choice by selecting Russell at No. 2?

While NBA folks had him rated No. 2 on my Big Board, I wrote the Lakers should've taken Porzingis in my Grade A Mock the week before the draft. Based on the very early returns, I'd stand by that -- especially given the Lakers' current personnel. Many of these situational issues would've gone away had they selected Porzingis.

Pelton: I think I'm inclined to agree. You mentioned in last week's discussion that Porzingis was underscouted, and that was certainly the case for me. Though Porzingis and Russell had nearly identical WARP projections, I rated Russell higher on my subjective rankings in part because I was more familiar with his strengths and how they would translate to the NBA than Porzingis' game.

I don't think Okafor or Mudiay would look much better in the Lakers' system than Russell. (Can you imagine Okafor as the last line of defense behind the L.A. guards?)

Porzingis, however, has shown he can be effective without the ball thanks to his size and offensive rebounding. Given that NBA performance tends to be more predictive than pre-draft projections, I would lean Porzingis over Russell if we redrafted today.
 
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TYBG said:
@Skooby

The Crossover: Chris Paul's declining fantasy value

thanks
Click to expand...
The Crossover: Chris Paul's declining fantasy value



When the Los Angeles Clippers venture into the desert tonight to take on the Phoenix Suns, former teammates Chris Paul and Tyson Chandler will be reunited.

Sadly, and almost unbelievably, the two aren't linked to each other anymore. After all, there was a time when Paul and Chandler created magic on the court in New Orleans and it seemed like they'd be a great tandem for many, many years; the young point guard displaying handles that few had ever seen, finding the defensive-minded center for a seemingly endless loop of alley-oop lobs.

It was great stuff, culminating in a 56-win season and trip to the Western Conference semifinals by the 2007-08 New Orleans Hornets.

But today is different.


Both are wearing different uniforms, and Paul isn't 22, he's 30, playing in his 11th NBA season. Chandler, playing on his fourth team since leaving New Orleans, isn't on the receiving end of those alley-oops. Now it's Blake Griffin andDeAndre Jordan.

I'm not trying to get overly nostalgic, and this isn't to say that Paul is suddenly over-the-hill, but tonight serves as a reminder that Paul isn't the young guy he used to be. He's already missed a game due to a groin injury. And his 32.6 minutes per game aren't just 2.2 fewer than last season, but are also the fewest he's played at any point in his career.

These are all things to consider when you talk about a player like Paul, whose numbers are down by Chris Paul standards in the early going this season.

{C}

Season Minutes PPG APG RPG SPG FG% FT% 3PT%
2014-15 34.8 19.1 10.2 4.6 1.9 48.5 90 39.8
2015-16 32.6 15.7 8 3.6 1.3 41.9 81.6 28


Why the decline in Paul's numbers?

"I think there are a couple of factors at play with Paul," said ESPN Insider Kevin Pelton. "The first is a general shift of the offense to feature Griffin. That's likely to result in fewer assists and slightly lower scoring this season. But the bigger factor in his scoring decline is a 3-point slump from nearly 40 percent last season to worse than 30 percent this season. If Paul were making 3s at his career rate (36.3 percent), his per-minute scoring would be nearly identical to 2014-15."

While it's easy to chalk up the scoring decline as an early-season shooting slump, the drop in the other important categories including assists and steals is alarming, especially when you consider that Paul was a first-round pick in just about every season-long league.

His average draft position of 8.4 in ESPN leagues put him ahead of Damian Lillard (9.2), Paul George (12.6), Kawhi Leonard (12.6) and Griffin (14.4). If I own Paul, it has me worried, because it's safe to say all four of those players would be drafted higher in a re-draft today.


Two of the big reasons to be concerned are the rising presence of Austin Rivers and the Clippers' improved bench, because the Clippers no longer need Paul on the court at all times like they have in previous seasons.

Rivers has played at least 23 minutes in each of the past four games, and the presence of veteran wings like Josh Smith, Lance Stephenson, Wesley Johnson and Paul Pierce give Doc Rivers plenty of ball-handling options he simply didn't have in previous seasons whenever Paul was on the bench.

What's this mean? It means that there's a very real chance that Paul's minutes don't come up at all over the course of the season. And it also means that whenever Paul shares the court with any of these players, there are others to handle and distribute.

"No matter what, I think the Clippers were going to have to find a way to get Paul and Griffin some more rest during the regular season after they wore down in the playoffs," Pelton said. Upgrading the bench makes it easier for Doc Rivers to do that. I'm not sure that being fresher will do much to help their per-minute stats, good as they already were, so it will probably just be an irritation for fantasy players who have the Clippers' starters on their team."

So what do I do if I have Paul on my team? I wait for him to string together a couple of big games, then I look to trade him for another player -- or in the right situation, two players -- who aligns with the rest of my roster.

Paul will rise from his current place of 67th on the ESPN Player Rater, but I'm not sold on him as a top-20 fantasy basketball option in 2015-16.





Why DFS matters

With all the craziness in recent days and weeks surrounding the legality of daily fantasy, I wanted to share a quick story that I'm sure many of you can relate to. What started out as a hobby of mine has turned into a passion over the past few years, and that passion has spilled over into everyday life.

I was at a child's birthday party in the Bay Area this past weekend when I saw two familiar faces. Their names escaped me, but I knew they were both fathers of children who attended the daycare my kids used to go to a few years back.

We said hello and introduced ourselves and talked about the weather and about our kids, and just when we had run out of things to say I thought to myself, "Let's go for it."

So I did.

"Are you guys into the Warriors?" I said, knowing there was a good chance Hector and Carlos, both originally from El Salvador, would shut this topic down before it got started.

Then it happened.

"Yeah! What a start to the season!" Hector said.

"We just put in some DFS lineups for the first time, today," Carlos added.

Seriously?!

I was shocked. And I was pumped.

Fast-forward about 15 minutes, and the three of us were a sight to behold -- friends talking hoops, contemplating whether to play Kyle Korver, high-fiving over Andrew Wiggins' breakout game, second-guessing Jimmy Butler after his uncharacteristically poor first half.

That's why DFS matters, and why so many of us hope it remains for years to come. It's more than a game of skill or way to turn $2 into $20,000; it's a game of fun that bonds people and builds friendships, even in the backyard of a 4-year-old's birthday party.
 
Skooby

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ReturnOfJudah said:
Freshmen tracker: LSU's Simmons lives up to billing

Can somebody hook ya boy up. Thanks in advance
Click to expand...
Freshman tracker: LSU's Simmons lives up to billing



The Freshman 15 doesn't have to have a negative connotation.


In this space every week for the rest of the season, it will be celebrated. More appropriately, they will be celebrated. Every Wednesday, 15 freshmen will be ranked based on the week they had. Keep in mind, this particular tracker won't factor in where a player projects in the 2016 NBA draft or simply list the players with the 15 best stat lines.

Many more factors will be taken into consideration, like a player who performed well in a big game.

Check back each week, as the order is sure to change and different names will emerge.






First five


i
1. Ben Simmons, F, LSU Tigers
16.5 points per game, 11.0 rebounds per game, 5.5 assists per game



I know what you're thinking. I really went out on a limb for this pick right? Think of it this way, no player from the class of 2015 had as much hype and pressure as Simmons had entering the season. Shaquille O'Neal already crowned him the "best player in the world" before he ever scored a collegiate basket. And yet somehow through two games, Simmons has left us intrigued to see more. With the numbers that he's put up already, it's just a matter of time before he posts a triple-double, given that his court vision is one of his best assets.



"You always have to be aware of where he is and expect a pass," LSU senior guard Keith Hornsby told ESPN.com. "A few times when I first started playing with him, I was somewhere else mentally, and he sent me a bullet pass that I just wasn't ready for ... I was thinking to myself that that's exceptional."





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2. Jamal Murray, G, Kentucky Wildcats
14.3 ppg, 4.3 rpg, 5.0 apg



Murray did a little bit of everything in the Wildcats' win over Duke. His final line was 16 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists and 4 steals. UK fans should get used to these kinds of numbers. Murray will have to cut back on his turnovers, but that should come as he gets more comfortable in the offense.



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3. Dedric Lawson, G/F, Memphis Tigers
17.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg



Lawson could have vaulted to the top, had the Tigers pulled off an upset of No. 8 Oklahoma. As it stands, he still managed to put up grown man numbers with 22 points and 15 rebounds in the loss.





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4. Dwayne Bacon, G/F, Florida State Seminoles
25.0 ppg, 8.5 rpg



Bacon totaled 23 points in his debut. He followed that by scoring 27 points against Jacksonville. The scoring droughts that plagued the Seminoles last season are a thing of the past with Bacon in their backcourt.





i
5. Caleb Swanigan, F, Purdue Boilermakers
12.5 ppg, 12.0 rpg



Swanigan is one of just 25 players to record a double-double in the first two games to open the season. What most of those players can't also say is that they are shooting nearly 43 percent from 3-point range. But Swanigan can, having hit three of his first seven attempts from deep.





Second five


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6. Tyler Dorsey, G, Oregon Ducks
16.0 ppg, 5.5 rpg, 5.0 apg



Dorsey leads the Ducks in scoring and assists and is just two rebounds shy from overtaking Chris Boucher in that category, too.





i
7. Henry Ellenson, F, Marquette Golden Eagles
19.5 ppg, 9.5 rpg



Ellenson is right behind Simmons for the most versatile big man in the class. He posted 21 points and 16 rebounds in his collegiate debut, a loss to Belmont.





i
8. Antonio Blakeney, G, LSU
18.0 ppg, 6.5 rpg, 44.4 percent from 3-point range



Blakeney is proving the Tigers are more than just Simmons.



i
9. Brandon Ingram, F, Duke Blue Devils
13.3 ppg, 3.0 rpg



He got in early foul trouble and fell flat against Kentucky, but keep an eye on Ingram.





i
10. Matt McQuaid, G, Michigan State Spartans
5.5 ppg, 3-for-3 from 3-point range



McQuaid nailed two 3-pointers in the final four minutes of a one-point game against Kansas. All nine of his points came from behind the arc.





Final five


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11. Ivan Rabb, F, California Golden Bears
13.0 ppg, 8.0 rpg, 63.6 percent from the field





i
12. Jordon Varnado, F, Troy Trojans
23.5 ppg,10.5 rpg





i
13. Isaiah Briscoe, G, Kentucky
11.5 ppg, 7.5 rpg





i
14. Malik Beasley, G, Florida State
21 ppg, 7-for-10 from 3-point range





i
15. Allonzo Trier, G, Arizona Wildcats
15 ppg, 4.0 rpg
 
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TrillCauleyStein said:
Doolittle: Drummond best center in the NBA?
Click to expand...
Ranking Andre Drummond, DeAndre Jordan and the NBA's 30 centers

To formulate the rankings, I study each player's on-court performance and advanced metrics, including wins above replacement player (WARP) and real plus-minus (RPM). Then I slot the players as I see them, according to their predicted quality of play for this season.

1. Andre Drummond
i

Team: Detroit Pistons
RPM PF rank: No. 14
WARP PF rank: No. 2
Overall #NBArank: No. 30

Drummond's game still has a few holes, so it's easy to dwell on those and overlook his immense production. Stan Van Gundy reshaped the Pistons to accentuate Drummond's burgeoning talent at a good time. At 23, his rebounding rivals that of a peak Moses Malone.

Hidden talent: Some prolific rebounders pad their numbers by gobbling up all the easy defensive boards, often with their teammates' help, but Drummond's been in the top seven percent the last two years in corralling contested rebounds, per SportVu.

Taking it to the next level:Drummond must develop a reliable post move. He doesn't have to be Kareem on the low block, but he does need to be good enough to attract more frequent double teams.

2. DeAndre Jordan
i

Team: Los Angeles Clippers
RPM rank: No. 1
WARP rank: No. 4
#NBArank: No. 25

Jordan has a case for No. 1, but Drummond has an edge in most areas save for shot efficiency. More crucially, Jordan is a full-formed center square in his prime, while Drummond owns the accelerated growth curve of a player five years younger.

Hidden talent: Jordan's game has all the subtlety of a knee to the groin. What you might have missed is that Jordan has ranked in the top percent in transition efficiency each of the last three years, per Synergy.

Taking it to the next level: As with Drummond, we'll bypass the unspeakable free throw shooting. Jordan needs to strike a better balance between protecting the rim and checking his primary defensive assignment.

3. Tim Duncan
i

Team: San Antonio Spurs
RPM rank: No. 4
WARP rank: No. 5
#NBArank: No. 23

With LaMarcus Aldridge around to serve as the Spurs' top post threat, Duncan is easing more into a supporting role on offense. No matter. In terms of efficiency and defensive impact, this guy just doesn't age.

Hidden talent: After 19 years, we know everything about Duncan, right? Let's highlight his passing. Among centers -- even those who won't admit that it's their position -- Duncan ranks fourth all-time in assists. In the next month, he's going to overtake Bill Russell for third and will trail only Kareem Abdul-Jabbarand Wilt Chamberlain.

Taking it to the next level: There is no level past the upper tier of the Hall of Fame.

4. Rudy Gobert
i

Team: Utah Jazz
RPM rank: No. 8
WARP rank: No. 3
#NBArank: No. 42

As much as any franchise, the Jazz have proved that you don't just mail in those late first-round picks or second-rounders. Every pick is an opportunity to land someone like Gobert, whom Utah nabbed at No. 27 in 2013. If we re-picked that draft today, Gobert and Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo would vie for the top overall selection.

Hidden talent: Gobert may already be the NBA's most impactful defensive player. At this position, that carries a lot of weight. Yet Gobert's offensive efficiency also helps justify his lofty ranking. That efficiency is bolstered by a foul-drawing rate that is elite when adjusted for usage.

Taking it to the next level: Gobert is a non-disaster at the foul line, but he could do a lot better.

5. Dwight Howard
i

Team: Houston Rockets
RPM rank: No. 2
WARP rank: No. 13
#NBArank: No. 14

Howard can still look like the game's best center on any given night. However, he missed 41 games last season, and back problems have plagued him early this year. Durability concerns aside, Howard remains firmly in the ranks of star-caliber big men.

Hidden talent: Howard's recent performance record is a tour de force of consistency. One example: His field-goal percentages at the rim in the last three years have been .688, .684 and .683, per NBA.com/Stats.

Taking it to the next level: Howard is playing for a heightened historical status. And for that, he needs to win a ring while he's still a primary player. With the Rockets, Howard might be on the right team to do just that.

6. Hassan Whiteside
i

Team: Miami Heat
RPM rank: No. 23
WARP rank: No. 1
#NBArank: No. 68

He's like Cinderella with more technical fouls -- or maybe Roy Hobbs. However you frame it, in the course of a season Whiteside has gone from flop to fame.

Hidden talent: Whiteside has become the league's best shot blocker, yet he doesn't foul. Since he arrived in Miami, Whiteside's 1.07 blocks for every foul is the third-best ratio in the league, behind Anthony Davis and Gobert.

Taking it to the next level: It's tempting to believe Whiteside will turn into a pumpkin. Early this season, he's outplaying projections that seemed outlandish when they came out. He's real, and if he keeps up his current pace for a full season, everyone will believe it.

7. Al Horford
i

Team: Atlanta Hawks
RPM rank: No. 10
WARP rank: No. 7
#NBArank: No. 24

Horford's ability to do everything well on both ends of the floor makes him one of the most utilitarian players in the league. This is the kind of guy you build around if you want a group with as much synergy as the Hawks.

Hidden talent: A new talent! Long one of the most reliable midrange shooters in the league, Horford is now taking more of those shots from behind the arc. Entering this season, Horford had taken one 3 about every eighth game. Now he's averaging 3.4.

Taking it to the next level: Because Horford is so good around the hoop, he's going to have to balance his new floor-spacing game with his proven abilities.

8. Marc Gasol
i

Team: Memphis Grizzlies
RPM rank: No. 9
WARP rank: No. 10
#NBArank: No. 10

Gasol was the league's first-team All-NBA center last season. But the season before that, it was Joakim Noah, who's now coming off the bench in Chicago. This is a position that evolves in a hurry, and Gasol just doesn't look right physically in the season's early going.

Hidden talent: Gasol isn't known as a player who creates off the dribble, but he makes the most of his forays to the basket. In 2014-15 Gasol owned the second-highest points-per-drive figure of the last three seasons, per SportVu.

Taking it to the next level: Synergy's catch-and-shoot numbers show that Gasol invariably shoots better when guarded than when left open. He's got to get on that. A freebie's a freebie.

9. Karl-Anthony Towns
i

Team: Minnesota Timberwolves
RPM rank: No. 26
WARP rank: No. 26
#NBArank: No. 75

The King of the North! Generally, it's best practice to give an edge to players with a body of evidence that backs up our eyeball observations. Towns has played fewer than 10 NBA games, and I'm sold.

Hidden talent: The Wolves haven't called on it much yet, and maybe it's for the best, but Towns has briefly flashed the 3-point stroke we heard whispers of leading up to the draft. We'll see it more in coming seasons.

Taking it to the next level: Towns is so skilled, he'll have to avoid the trap of avoiding contact just because he can. Going forward, you'd like to see a higher foul-drawing rate.

10. Jonas Valanciunas
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Team: Toronto Raptors
RPM rank: No. 25
WARP rank: No. 15
#NBArank: No. 57

Valanciunas has steadily improved as a pro, and his peak seasons still lie ahead of him. You often feel like the only thing holding him back is an odd lack of confidence in him shown by his coach and teammates.

Hidden talent: The physical Valanciunas draws a good number of fouls, and unlike some of the players ahead of him in the rankings, he's actually a solid foul shooter. That shooting touch offers hope he'll eventually fine-tune a pick-and-pop game that will diversify his arsenal.

Taking it to the next level: Valanciunas has grown as a post player, When he's on, he attracts defense-contracting double teams. However, his passing metrics are among the worst in the game.
29. Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings
30. Omer Asik, New Orleans Pelicans

Most of these players are limited by role or play as specialists. Only Okafor runs a true full rotation role. His post game is already one of the league's best, and you can see that in how often teams come at him with a hard double. But he's not rebounding, his defense is poor and the team around him is in shambles. It's hard to say how well Okafor will round out his floor game in coming seasons. But the Sixers have found themselves a rare commodity in someone so young and already so skilled on the low block.
 
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The middle third
11. Greg Monroe, Milwaukee Bucks
12. Brook Lopez, Brooklyn Nets
13. Pau Gasol, Chicago Bulls
14. Tyson Chandler, Phoenix Suns
15. Al Jefferson, Charlotte Hornets
16. Marcin Gortat, Washington Wizards
17. Nikola Vucevic, Orlando Magic
18. Robin Lopez, New York Knicks
19. Timofey Mozgov, Cleveland Cavaliers
20. Zaza Pachulia, Dallas Mavericks

Center is a weird position, and perhaps that's because so many quality big men have had significant injury problems. The defensive role of the center in today's game is as important as ever. If you have a rim protector who teams can't scheme off the floor, it's a huge advantage. You can see that some of the guys in this section have offensive games that merit top 10 rankings. However, if you give defense at this position its due, this is where they land.

The bottom third
21. Steven Adams, Oklahoma City Thunder
22. Jusuf Nurkic, Denver Nuggets
23. Jared Sullinger, Boston Celtics
24. Mason Plumlee, Portland Trail Blazers
25. Andrew Bogut, Golden State Warriors
26. Roy Hibbert, Los Angeles Lakers
27. Ian Mahinmi, Indiana Pacers
28. Jahlil Okafor, Philadelphia 76ers
29. Willie Cauley-Stein, Sacramento Kings
30. Omer Asik, New Orleans Pelicans

Most of these players are limited by role or play as specialists. Only Okafor runs a true full rotation role. His post game is already one of the league's best, and you can see that in how often teams come at him with a hard double. But he's not rebounding, his defense is poor and the team around him is in shambles. It's hard to say how well Okafor will round out his floor game in coming seasons. But the Sixers have found themselves a rare commodity in someone so young and already so skilled on the low block.
 
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